#ColoradoRiver: “If nothing is signed by Jan. 31, 2019, then we are basically jumping over a cliff and we don’t know what’s at the bottom or how deep it is” — Sarah Porter #Arizona #COriver #aridification #lbdcp

Hoover Dam, located near Las Vegas, was completed in 1936 and creates Lake Mead. Photo/Allen Best

From ArizonaCentral.com (Ian James and Dustin Gardiner):

With just [two] days until that deadline, many pieces have yet to fall into place for Arizona to finish its part of the agreement and join California and Nevada in endorsing the Drought Contingency Plan.

The plan’s success or failure will turn on the actions of a few key players, including leaders of the Legislature, tribes, farmers, cities and the state’s water managers.

If any of the main players pull out, the state’s carefully negotiated compromise could unravel and the plan could fall apart. Just such a breakdown seemed possible this week, when the Gila River Indian Community warned that the introduction of another water bill could kill the deal.

If Arizona fails to sign the three-state Drought Contingency Plan, the federal government would be in charge of dictating water cutbacks. Water users that rely on the Central Arizona Project canal have the lowest priority among the three states on the lower river and would be first in line for cuts. If the federal government takes charge of deciding the reductions, that also might unleash a cascade of lawsuits.

To finish the agreement, the state Legislature would need to pass a package of legislation making the deal possible and allowing for its signing. Whether that will happen before the deadline isn’t clear.

House Speaker Rusty Bowers said this week that while lawmakers are working hard to get a deal done, meeting the deadline isn’t his chief priority.

Burman has warned that if Arizona or any other state doesn’t sign on in time, the Interior Department will ask all seven states that rely on the river for recommendations on what the government should do to prevent reservoirs from continuing to fall.

A race to ‘dead pool’

Supporters of the deal, including Gov. Doug Ducey and the state’s top water managers, say failing to act in time would put Lake Mead on course to decline more rapidly and would signal an inability to come up with water solutions within the state.

“If nothing is signed by Jan. 31, then we are basically jumping over a cliff and we don’t know what’s at the bottom or how deep it is,” said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University. She said the drought plan would give Arizona and other states a degree of control over their water future…

The Legislature: ‘It takes time’

Lawmakers received a first draft of the proposed legislation from Ducey’s office on Jan. 16.

On Thursday [January 17, 2019], the Central Arizona Project board voted to support the package of legislation and a proposed resolution that would grant Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke the authority to sign the Drought Contingency Plan on Arizona’s behalf.

The legislation is based on a plan that emerged from a series of meetings and negotiations over the past seven months.

The plan focuses on spreading the water cutbacks among entities and lessening the economic blow for those with the lowest priority, providing “mitigation” water to farmers in central Arizona while paying compensation to other entities that would contribute. The proposed legislation includes several tweaks to state law to make the plan work.

The Legislature is expected to take up the measures…possibly Tuesday [January 29, 2019], just two days before the federal government’s deadline. Bowers, R-Mesa, said he expects that the bills will be heard in the House Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee on Tuesday, and that the House might suspend some procedural rules to expedite the measures.

Asked about the federal government’s deadline, Bowers said: “That’s not my major concern.”

“The most important thing to me is to get the deal done right,” Bowers said in an interview with The Arizona Republic.

If the Legislature takes a few extra days to pass the legislation, that would be at odds with Ducey’s emphatic calls for meeting the Jan. 31 deadline. But Bowers said “it takes time” for so many lawmakers to vet the issue.

“We’re just cranking along,” Bowers said. “Everybody wants to get this thing done.”

If lawmakers get behind the plan, it could sail through quickly. But it’s also possible that some groups and their allies in the Legislature could try to tack on unrelated water legislation, which might elicit opposition and derail the agreement.

“We need the stakeholders and we need Arizona legislators to help shepherd this DCP through,” said Kim Mitchell, senior water policy adviser with the group Western Resource Advocates. “We hope to see some momentum on DCP passage and show that we can get this done.”

[…]

The tribes: Bringing water to the deal

Arizona’s plan involves more than $100 million in funding pledges from Ducey’s administration and the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, which manages the CAP Canal. Much of the money would go toward paying for water from the Gila River Indian Community and the Colorado River Indian Tribes.

Without the tribes’ participation, the deal wouldn’t work.

But the Gila River Indian Community has warned that if certain proposals are pushed into the package at the last minute, that could kill the deal. For one thing, the Community’s representatives said earlier this month that they wouldn’t accept an “offset” proposal that would have given the CAP board discretion to potentially draw stored water out of Lake Mead.

Another squabble erupted several days ago over a separate water bill sponsored by Bowers.

Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis of the Gila River Indian Community strongly opposed the legislation, House Bill 2476, in a letter to the state’s top water managers and said it would “interfere with litigation in which the Community has prevailed.”

He was referring to a 2017 ruling by the federal Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which found that a group of farmers in Safford gave up rights to Gila River water under the state’s water rights forfeiture law because they hadn’t diverted the water for more than five years.

Lewis said if the bill goes forward and changes parts of the water rights forfeiture law — often described as “use it or lose it” — then the Community “will be put in the unfortunate position of having to choose between preserving our water settlement and moving forward with DCP.”

Lewis said the Gila River Indian Community wants to see DCP pass but would actually be “better off financially” without it…

Bowers said the bill was one of two mistakenly introduced last week. He said a legislative staffer filed the bills without realizing he wanted to wait until after the drought plan is approved. Bowers said he plans to hold the bills until after a drought plan is finished…

The Colorado River Indian Tribes divert water to a swath of farmlands along the river, growing crops including alfalfa, wheat and cotton. The Tribes have agreed to take 10,000 acres of farmland out of production for three years, leaving the fields dry and freeing up the water so that it can be kept in Lake Mead.

In return, the tribes would receive $38 million, including $30 million from the state and $8 million contributed by non-profit groups.

Chairman Dennis Patch said he thinks Arizona’s plan will benefit tribes and the state as a whole — in part because it would keep more water in the river and prevent it from drying up like other rivers in Arizona. He pointed to the history of the Gila River and the Santa Cruz River, which have been heavily drained over the past century by diversions and groundwater pumping. And he said if everyone insists on sticking to water rights they hold on paper, it could put the river’s reservoirs on course for a crash.

“We’re afraid like everybody else is afraid. You could dry that river up with ‘paper water,'” Patch told The Republic. “And so we want to show everybody what real water needs to be contributed to this effort to keep the lake above that level and to help Arizona.”

Patch stressed that for all the parties that have been involved in the negotiations, it’s in everyone’s best interest for Arizona to sign the Drought Contingency Plan…

The farmers: Seeking certainty

Not everyone in the agriculture business in Arizona faces imminent water cutbacks. But farmers in Pinal County have the lowest priority and are in line for the biggest reductions in water deliveries.

Arizona’s plan would lessen the economic blow for the farmers by providing them with a limited amount of “mitigation” water for the next three years.

Agricultural irrigation districts in the county are seeking state and federal funding to pay for new wells and other infrastructure that would enable them to pump more groundwater.

The CAP board has authorized $5 million, and Ducey has proposed an additional $5 million to help. But the Pinal farmers say they’re hoping for more state money to help with an application for a federal grant and get closer to the estimated $50 million it will take to drill wells, buy pumps and build other infrastructure to carry groundwater to their fields.

To help them during the transition, the farmers have asked for “backstop” measures to ensure they’ll get a steady amount of Colorado River water for three years — even in the event of a more serious “tier 2” shortage. A deal with Tucson would make that possible but as a condition the city has requested other tweaks in the state’s groundwater law, which have been included in the package of legislation.

Farmers in Pinal County produce crops including alfalfa, wheat, cotton and cantaloupes.

Until recently, the growers had expected to receive Colorado River water until 2030 under the terms of a 2004 water settlement. They faced a decreasing schedule of water deliveries between now and 2030. Under the drought plan, those cutbacks will come much more quickly.

Paul Orme, a lawyer representing Pinal irrigation districts, said the farmers expect they’ll need to leave about 40 percent of their fields dry and fallow. Still, he said they support the vast majority of the provisions in proposed legislation. He said the package now seems “pretty darn close to the finish line.”

[…]

In pressing for funding, the farmers have cited a University of Arizona economic study, which found that Pinal County ranks in the top 3 percent of all U.S. counties for total crop sales. The researchers said that in 2016 farms and related businesses contributed nearly $2.3 billion in total sales to the county’s economy.

The cities: Protecting the economy

Arizona’s cities have lined up to call for swift passage of the drought plan, saying it’s critical for the economy.

The Arizona Municipal Water Users Association, which represents cities that supply water to more than half the state’s population, argues that the concerns of Pinal County growers have been addressed, and it’s time to finish the deal…

Brett Fleck, the association’s senior water policy analyst, examined the economic data and said all agriculture-related businesses in Pinal County represented about 0.2 percent of Arizona’s economy in 2016.

“Arizona’s golf industry contributes roughly twice as much to the state’s economy,” Fleck wrote in the analysis. He said the economic data “make it clear that the potential risk to Arizona’s economy due to agricultural water cutbacks from CAP is significantly smaller than purported.”

The association has also disagreed with concerns voiced by the Home Builders Association of Central Arizona.

Representatives of developers have called for a provision conditionally granting them a certain amount of water as a “backstop” for the first three years of a shortage. Officials in Phoenix and other cities have argued that’s unnecessary because the Gila River Indian Community has already agreed to a deal that would provide water for future development if the drought plan is signed.

Cynthia Campbell, a water adviser for Phoenix, said she thinks the deal has “gelled” and is close to being done…

Ducey and Arizona water managers

The governor and the state’s top water managers are campaigning to get the deal passed swiftly.

Ducey posted an image of Lake Mead and its growing “bathtub ring” on his Facebook page and Twitter profile, with a recent comment by former Gov. Bruce Babbitt: “This is the moment.”

During a budget briefing this week, Matt Gress, the governor’s director of strategic planning and budgeting, presented a chart showing two likely scenarios for Lake Mead: one with the Drought Contingency Plan or one without.

In either case, the reservoir fell into a shortage. But the chart showed a growing space between the two lines. Without the plan, Gress noted, the reservoir is projected to fall into a high-risk zone in the coming years, approaching a point at which “you won’t have enough water to get through Hoover Dam.”

[…]

The CAP board has similarly stressed the urgency of finishing the agreement. As the board voted to support the draft legislation this week, the final page of the agenda was emblazoned with an illustration of Hoover Dam and the declining reservoir behind it, with the words: “YOUR WATER. YOUR FUTURE. PROTECT LAKE MEAD”

Still, there wasn’t unanimous support for everything in the legislation among the 15-members of the Central Arizona Water Conservation District Board.

Jennifer Martin, a board member who is also a Sierra Club water expert, cast the lone “no” vote. She said the plan “represents significant state subsidization of increased groundwater pumping, and I see that as a step backwards.”

Board member Jim Holway said he couldn’t support a provision that would give Tucson considerably more long-term storage credit when treated sewage effluent is used to replenish the groundwater. He said increasing the credits for effluent would be “taking us further from safe yield” for those aquifers. He abstained, while saying he supports the drought plan overall…

Aside from the legislation, there are 15 related agreements between parties in Arizona that spell out details of the plan and that have yet to be signed.

CAP General Manager Ted Cooke said he hopes the Legislature passes the resolution and the accompanying legislation in time to meet the deadline. He said it’s doubtful that the 15 other agreements will be signed by Jan. 31.

“The deadline is the commissioner’s deadline,” Cooke said. “It will be up to her to determine whether or not what we complete by the 31st is sufficient in her mind to have achieved ‘done,’ even if all these other individual elements are not achieved.”

Signing the three-state plan may also take more time, he said. That’s because the proposed resolution grants Buschatzke authority to sign on Arizona’s behalf provided two other steps occur: Congress must authorize the federal Interior secretary to enter into the agreement, and all parties in other states must have authorization to sign…

The feds: Delay increases risk for all

The federal Bureau of Reclamation, which manages reservoirs on the Colorado River, has said the deadline stands.

If the parties haven’t finished their work to complete the Drought Contingency Plan by Jan. 31, the Interior Department plans to publish a notice in the Federal Register.

“In that notice, we will ask all seven States’ Governor’s representatives for their specific recommendations for prompt Departmental action,” said Patti Aaron, a spokeswoman for the bureau. “We will ask for actions to reduce the risk the Basin is facing.”

Aaron said if this occurs, the states will have 30 days to submit recommendations and the Interior Department will consider the input in deciding on a course of action before August.

From the Associated Press (Felicia Fonsceca) via The Colorado Springs Gazette:

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation expects an agreement from all seven states Thursday. If the deadline isn’t met, the agency will ask the states to weigh in on how the overtaxed river water should be allocated ahead of a projected shortage in August. Without a consensus plan, the federal agency has said it will make the rules…

The deadline requires only that the states sign off on the drought plan for the river that serves 40 million people in Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and California. There is no legal requirement to figure out exactly how states will live up to the reductions outlined.

Under existing guidelines, Arizona would be first hit and hardest if Lake Mead, on the state’s border with Nevada, falls below 1,075 feet.

Arizona has the lowest priority rights to the river. If the drought plan is approved, cuts would be spread more widely and eventually loop in California.

Arizona lawmakers want to see how the plan will affect their constituents before they vote, and tweaks to a handful of measures that are expected to be introduced will create more uncertainty. The Gila River Indian Community, for example, said it would pull support for the drought plan if other legislation attacks its water rights gained in a federal settlement…

Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico had their plans done in December. If Arizona’s proposal collapses and the federal government steps in, those states could put some of their plans in motion to meet their obligation to other states, water managers said. That includes sending water from reservoirs upstream of Lake Powell on the Arizona-Utah line to keep it from dropping so low that water could not be delivered to Lake Mead.

“In terms of signing ink on documents, we have been really waiting to have a seven-state package that has seven state flags on top of a cover letter,” said James Eklund, Colorado’s representative on the Upper Colorado River Commission…

n California, the Metropolitan Water District, a major user of Colorado River water, is pumping more to ensure the 500,000 acre-feet of water it has stored behind Lake Mead won’t be stranded if the reservoir [is operated under the 2007 shortage sharing guidelines].

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