Note that these #CORiver Tier 2a cuts for AZ, NV, MX are only slightly more than the current cuts under Tier 1:
AZ: 592 kaf (+80 kaf vs Tier 1)
NV: 25 kaf (+4 kaf)
MX: 104 kaf (+24 kaf)So that's 108 kaf of additional cuts to the Lower Basin under 2a.
— Jeff Lukas (@LukasClimate) August 16, 2022
These are just the previously agreed cuts under the Interim Guidelines and DCP. No additional cuts have been imposed yet. I would say feds have a month or two to unilaterally come up with numbers or do nothing at all. I don't see unilateral cuts coming in Dec without time to plan
— Hayley Namorada (@Mis2Ks) August 16, 2022
NEWS: Colorado River Basin states fail to meet federal deadline to submit plans to get to 2-4 maf in conservation.
Absent state agreement, the federal government is also not detailing how it plans to achieve that unprecedented level of conservation needed to protect reservoirs.— Luke Runyon (@LukeRunyon) August 16, 2022
The feds talked tough about stepping in to save Lake Mead and Lake Powell if states could not agree to cuts. But was that just an empty threat? https://t.co/ltwHzg3eY8 via @azcentral
— Joanna Allhands (@joannaallhands) August 16, 2022
.@usbr wanted today's Tier 2 shortage declaration to look like they were coming down hard on the states. But they did not. This shortage was spelled out in agreements signed in 2007 and 2019. It was expected. For months.
No federal hammer was dropped. https://t.co/icruE62QCe
— Luke Runyon (@LukeRunyon) August 16, 2022
Correct. No new cuts. Rather it’s Implementation of previously agreed upon “cuts” under DCP and 2007 Guidelines. https://t.co/cEsVTaMwXr
— Jeffrey Kightlinger (@8thGenCA) August 16, 2022
Tier 2 shortage in Colorado River is important & a tough loss. But it's expected & agreed-upon under DCP. It doesn't tell us anything new, & it doesn't get us to BoR's 2-4 maf reduction. That will require new deals between water users & basin states or unilateral federal action.
— Rhett Larson (@rhett_larson) August 16, 2022
Statement from ADWR Director Tom Buschatzke and CAP GM Ted Cooke in response to the U.S. Department of the Interior announcement of actions to protect the Colorado River system and 2023 Operating Conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead https://t.co/nqFK5hWH3R @CAPArizona pic.twitter.com/wegNoEF8vL
— ADWR (@azwater) August 16, 2022
NEW: It's official, the federal government is issuing new mandatory water cutbacks.
The lower Colorado River basin will see its first-ever "tier 2a" shortage. The latest forecasts show Lake Mead will drop just below 1,048 ft. at the beginning of next year.
Here are the cuts. pic.twitter.com/fGFNztDMBl
— Alex Hager (@awhager) August 16, 2022
“Lake Mead will operate in its first-ever Level 2a shortage condition in CY 2023” California will not be required to water savings contributions under this operating condition….
— Meena Westford (@h2oexecutive) August 16, 2022
If you're just tuning in to today's water news, you can get some background in this thread.
In June, the federal government told states to conserve a huge amount of water, and they only had 60 days to sort out a plan. That deadline is today.https://t.co/vGt47ZCm0y
— Alex Hager (@awhager) August 16, 2022
"The Bureau’s latest forecast, while bleak, is no surprise. It confirms what we already know — without swift, responsible action, the Colorado River Basin is nearing a system-wide crash." Read Water for Colorado's statement on today's @usbr announcements: https://t.co/nGGHbpgExT
— WaterForColorado (@water4colorado) August 16, 2022
"The cuts are significant, but I think even more significant is the rapidity with which the reservoirs on the Colorado River are declining. And we have clear indications that these cuts won't be enough." @JnPitt @audubonsociety https://t.co/hFGiO3ZuK1
— Stephanie Sy (@TheStephSy) August 17, 2022
Feds require additional water cuts as the Colorado River sinks deeper into drought and overuse, https://t.co/nbiJuZAfeh
— Denver Post Breaking (@DenverPostBrk) August 16, 2022
“As these discussions continue, we urgently call on everyone who relies on #CoRiver water, including communities across #SoCal, to prepare for reduced supplies from this source, permanently. This is not simply a drought that will end," said GM @adelh2o. https://t.co/YNxiyuPkdj pic.twitter.com/SDJcikWQb1
— MWD of SoCal (@mwdh2o) August 16, 2022
Arizona loses one-fifth of its Colorado River allocation under new federal drought plan https://t.co/hHO9NxhmP4 via @azcentral
— Deb Krol (@Debkrol) August 16, 2022
.@azwater & and @CAPArizona say that negotiations among AZ, NV and CA to reduce Colorado River use failed, so the feds will create the plan
The translation here is: California wouldn't cut enough, and it's their fault pic.twitter.com/klotBhD0sQ
— Jim Small (@JimSmall) August 16, 2022
With all these imaginary reservoir elevations, my data dashboards just got a lot more complex.
— Lauren Steely (@MadreDeZanjas) August 16, 2022
"This much uncertainty hurts us all…" https://t.co/qvmkSmLzZT
— Heather Hansman (@hhansman) August 16, 2022
Unfortunately, there was not a lot of “new or threatening actions” spelled out today… a lot of “let’s work it out together and a need to cooperate with Federal help. #cor https://t.co/8am1hP2kmh
— Meena Westford (@h2oexecutive) August 16, 2022
Nevada's water allotment will be cut by 8% next year as Lake Mead is set to operate in a Tier 2 shortage condition.
Still, water managers say the state is in "a relatively enviable position," as usage is already below that allotment. Via @s_golonka: https://t.co/8a9LWhtv1w
— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) August 16, 2022
The @USBR says there's still time for "consensus" on Colorado River cuts. Looks like the basin states will have at least until the spring to negotiate an emergency deal. The move shows just how seriously federal officials take the threat of litigation by ag communities.
— Joshua Emerson Smith (@jemersmith) August 16, 2022
And here's an analysis of the errors. "Approximately 60% to 75% of all forecasts made between October and May of the year preceding the water year being forecast overestimated actual future inflows, and the range of inaccuracy in forecasts was approximately 7 maf." pic.twitter.com/3gNgfpY4D8
— Deirdre Des Jardins (@flowinguphill) August 16, 2022
Upper Colorado River Basin states can expect 'substantial releases' in reservoirs to help lower basin states, say Feds
https://t.co/d29wVKTCru— Sky-Hi News (@SkyHiNews) August 17, 2022
SNWA boss John Entsminger hoped there would be more specifics about what the federal government would do if states can't agree on Colorado River cuts.
Instead, he said federal officials "danced around it the whole time" during today's announcement.https://t.co/uWP3t7nJG1
— Colton Lochhead (@ColtonLochhead) August 17, 2022
Federal officials announced today that they will study potential modifications to the Glen Canyon Dam, but they were light on details.
Plus: Gov. Cox says push to build the controversial Lake Powell Pipeline may be slowed down if drought continues https://t.co/qwObB30Xwl
— Zak 🦦 Podmore (@zak_podmore) August 17, 2022
Thank you @POTUS ! The Inflation Reduction Act provides unprecedented resources to help @Interior @usbr meet unprecedented challenges associated with climate change and drought. https://t.co/0Pq11RT1Ky
— Tanya Trujillo (@AsstSecTrujillo) August 16, 2022
We the people need to get to work. The federal government must take over the water system. Nevada needs water from Washington. Utah Great lake need water from the snake River in Idaho. The gove we need to start lovingrnor of Wyoming is so delusional he wants to take water from the West to the east. It would be shorter and simpler to take copious water from the Missouri watershed. Kansas Missouri should divert wasted White River and Osage flood waters to Colorado. In turn Colorado should not sap the water from the Columbia to the east. We need to lobby!
Intersting, there are tough political hurdles ahead of you.
Thanks for commenting.
John Orr
http://coyotegulch.blog/
The current system is a classic tragedy of the commons scenario because individual users are not assured the benefit of their own reductions in use. For instance, if CAP decides to voluntarily conserve, the current law doesn’t stop other users from making withdrawals until deadpool.
What’s more, because of the prior appropriation system there is no common shared outcome. Even if the reservoir is exhausted, under current law the most senior users have the continued right to their full beneficial use of annual flow although that would mean junior users like CAP receive nothing. That arrangement disincentivizes senior user like imperial from making an agreement notwithstanding the possible imposition of court mandated QSA style cuts.
The basin needs to create a Pro Rata system like in New Mexico’s Acequias or an Open water market like the Murray Darling in Australia, or an annual quota like the fisheries in Alaska.
Braelan,
I think everyone agrees that the allocation method in the Colorado River Compact is the culprit that allowed USBR and the Lower Basin to drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell. It’s the classic paper water v. wet water conundrum. On top of that it is Ag that uses the lion’s share of the water and they often have priorities senior to the Compact. That is where the savings have to come from but there is little incentive under prior appropriation to use less than their allotment. Often when Ag can afford the equipment to conserve they bring more acreage into production. Also, they are pretty resistant to the government controlling what crops they grow and the markets they sell to.
Traditionally in the West when you leave water in the stream it is available to the next diverter downstream. It is nigh impossible for state administration to “color” the waters in a stream so that they can bypass other diverters. Prior appropriation undergirds all operations.
Thanks for commenting.
John Orr
http://coyotegulch.blog/