The Colorado River’s Horseshoe Bend. Photo credit: Gert Boers/Unsplash
Click the link to read the article on the KJZZ website (Alex Hager). Here’s an excerpt:
November 2, 2026
The Arizona Department of Water Resources filed a motion to intervene in Nevadaโs lawsuit against the federal government. The Central Arizona Project โ which operates a 336-mile canal system that carries Colorado River Water to the Phoenix and Tucson areas โ did the same less than two weeks later. The legal moves represent an escalation in a contentious, yearslong saga over how to respond to increasingly dry conditions along a river that supplies nearly 40 million people across seven Western states…Nevadaโs original lawsuit chiefly argues one thing. It says the Interior Department needs to go back and redo its plans for cutting back water use in three Colorado River states โ Arizona, California and Nevada, collectively known as the Lower Basin…With states at an impasse, the federal government reluctantly came up with its own plan. The Interior Department decided that the Lower Basin would have to cut back, but did not force any new cutbacks on the Upper Basin. The plan gives Interior the option to cut Colorado River supplies for Arizona, California and Nevada by up to 40% per year, with Arizona being the hardest hit. Those states were quick to call that plan unfair. Now, theyโre going further and arguing that it was illegal…
Photo credit: Central Arizona Project
The lawsuit argues that federal authorities are legally obligated to consider the impact of new water management plans while drawing up required environmental paperwork. A plan that slashes so much water for millions of people and major industries, it explains, has not done enough to consider the harm of those cutbacks. Arizonaโs top water official, Tom Buschatzke, said the new river plan would โdevastateโ Arizonaโs economy, and โignores basic elements of the law of the riverโ to do so…Those agencies, alongside Nevada, are asking Interior to come up with a new cutback plan that considers that harm and spreads water cuts more evenly across the region…That ask for a redo is only part of the reason Arizona joined Nevadaโs lawsuit. Between the lines of the filing, the state is making a bigger point. The Lower Basin is in this mess, the state explains, because its upstream neighbors are violating the foundational laws that have governed the river since 1922. If that doesnโt change, Arizona has the ammunition it needs to take an Upper Basin state, or states, to the Supreme Court sometime soon. It is using this lawsuit to put those ideas in writing…Now, some water officials say the conditions are right to bring that bigger lawsuit. Arizona could sue a state or states in the Upper Basin for failing to deliver a legally-mandated amount of water downstream. CAP officials say the upstream states have already fallen below that amount…
Itโs impossible to predict exactly how long a case over the 1922 Colorado River Compact would take to work its way through the legal process, but other water disputes can provide some hints. In Texas v. New Mexico and Colorado, a dispute over water from the Rio Grande spent 13 years in court before it was finally settled in early 2026. In 1985, Kansas sued Colorado for taking too much water from the Arkansas River. That case wasnโt resolved until 2009, more than two decades after it began. A Colorado River case would be highly complex, considering the riverโs connection to seven states, 30 federally recognized Native American tribes and the country of Mexico. Because of that, Eklund said, it could take even longer than two decades, a perilously long time given the record-setting low levels at the nationโs largest reservoirs.
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
Dangerous floodwaters threatened homes and communities across southwestern Colorado on Monday, causing widespread damage to towns and counties already incapacitated by flooding from rain-swollen rivers one week earlier. The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs rose to nearly 17 feet on Sunday as an estimated 3 to 4 inches of rain fell over land already saturated by heavy precipitation. The river did not hit the record-breaking 22-foot crest that forecasters expected, but the 16.81-foot crest recorded Sunday night is the second-highest on record and two feet higher than one week ago, according to preliminary data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationโs river gauges. Southern Colorado officials ordered mandatory evacuations for people living in parts of La Plata, Archuleta, Rio Grande, Mineral, Conejos and Montezuma counties, including parts of Pagosa Springs, Durango, Del Norte, Ignacio and Mancos…Sundayโs storm brought similar or slightly less rain than the storm that caused widespread flooding in the area more than a week earlier, but the water had nowhere to go, National Weather Service meteorologist Eric Petersen said. The ground was still saturated from the previous floods, unable to absorb much more, and reservoirs were already filled to the brink, pushing water downstream, said Petersen, who works in the weather serviceโs Pueblo office…
ูุญุธุฉ ุฌุฑู ููุฑ ุณุงู ุฎูุงู ู ูุฒููุง ูุงุตุทุฏุงู ู ุจุฌุณุฑ ูุฑุจ ูู ููููุฑุงุฏู (Pagosa Springs, USA) ๐บ๐ธ
Mandatory evacuation orders are also in effect for residents along the South Fork of the Rio Grande River, including in Del Norte, Monte Vista and South Fork. Part of southern Del Norte remained on pre-evacuation status. An updated evacuation map is available online. Roughly 2,773 people were evacuated, according to South Fork Fire Rescue. As of Monday morning, no injuries or missing people had been reported…The South Fork of the Rio Grande hit โmajorโ flooding of 8.88 feet late Sunday night near South Fork and held relatively steady overnight. As of Monday morning, the river was still expected to rise near Del Norte and Monte Vista, according to NOAA flood gauges.
After the floods of October, the mountains surrounding the Valley are capped with snow. Looking east from the La Garita church toward the Sangre de Cristo range. Credit: Ryan Michelle Scavo
The historic rains of Oct. 22-25 increased the annual flow of the Rio Grande by nearly 100,000 acre-feet and the Conejos River by around 60,000 acre-feet, according to preliminary data by the Colorado Division of Water Resources.
As fast as those rivers rose, though, they are receding just as quickly.
For the second straight October, the San Luis Valley found itself in historic flooding conditions, with this yearโs fall storm delivering the fastest cubic-feet per second flow on the Rio Grande in nearly 80 years at 11,000 cfs.
โWe saw very high flows in the past week or so, and we got a lot of recharge to the aquifers from those flows. However, we will need many, many more high-flow years to recover the aquifers and the water system as a whole,โ said Craig Cotten, DWR division engineer in the San Luis Valley.
San Luis Valley Groundwater
The state is estimating the flooding allowed around 50,000 acre-feet of recharge to the closed basin area, which Cotten said is great. But understand, he said, that the unconfined aquifer has lost an estimated 72,000 acre-feet in the past year.
โThe high precipitation event this past week is an encouraging sign for next year (spring 2027 runoff). However, recall that we had a similar high precipitation event last October that caused large streamflows and flooding, and yet it didnโt correspond to a good streamflow year this year,โ he said. โIn fact, this year would have been one of the driest on record if not for the increased precipitation over the past month.โ
The same was said just ahead of the October 2025 storm, with the unconfined aquifer measuring at its lowest point at the time, and whatever water in the river at a near standstill. Then the Rio Grande hit 9,000 cfs and grew by 80,000 acre-feet and the Conejos by 20,000 acre-feet from the October 2025 storm. Only to be followed by the second warmest November on record and the first warmest December on record, according to National Weather Service data.
Will 2026 be any different? The next 3-month forecast says it will, and there are other encouraging early signs that a more beneficial 2027 spring runoff is in the cards.
The Rio Grande has receded from its record-high flows, and the mountains have snow at last. Credit: The Citizen
For starters, and this is a big one, the 14ers that surround the Valley are all forming snow caps, including on the south face of Mt. Blanca, which hasnโt been the case in a couple of years.
Ask the irrigators who rely on Trinchera Creek about that. Theyโre having a better October, like the rest of the Valleyโs agricultural community.
The irrigation season has been extended to Nov. 6 on the Rio Grande and Conejos River, and Cotten said it may be extended on the Alamosa River as well.
Currently, the Rio Grandeโs forecasted annual flow at Del Norte is 440,000 acre-feet, or 68 percent of average. Of that, 109,000 acre-feet belongs to the Rio Grande Compact with New Mexico and Texas, according to Cotten. For the Conejos, the projected annual flow is 220,000 acre-feet or 82 percent of average, and a water compact obligation of 57,000 acre-feet.
Those totals likely grow in the coming weeks, should November storms arise.
The October storm couldnโt have been timed more perfectly to hold the moisture, with clocks set to turn back an hour Nov. 1. The return to standard time marks earlier and darker evenings, which allows for longer nights and the cold to settle in before the rise of the morning sun.
Lush green fields in Conejos County. Credit: The Citizen
Overnight temperatures are key moving through November and December if there is to be true benefit to the Valley floor going into 2027. The National Weather Service forecast remains encouraging for the type of snowy winter the Upper Rio Grande Basin desires, with climate maps showing above-normal levels of moisture December through February and an equal chance for winter-like temperatures.
โWe will see what actually happens,โ said Cotten, mindful of the currently warm temperatures that, mixed with the October rains, have left the Valleyโs growing fields looking lush and ready for another cut.
The growing fields and marshes will most certainly โgo to bed wetโ as they say, just like an October ago. Only this time, with more moisture potentially on the way in the first days of November, there is hope again for a change in the Valleyโs fortunes.
Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. Map credit: By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, drainage basin from GTOPO [1], U.S. stream from the National Atlas [2], all other features from Vector Map., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11218868
Last week, from Wednesday, October 21 into Sunday, October 25, southern Coloradoโalong with neighboring areas of New Mexico, Utah, and Arizonaโreceived widespread heavy rainfall. Thankfully, as of this writing no fatalities or significant injuries have been reported from the resulting flooding, but the destruction has been immense. Roads have been washed out throughout the region, homes have been damaged, water rescues were needed, and recreation areas have been affected. [The Colorado Sun has been doing greatreporting on the flood impacts, as has the Navajo Times for areas downstream on the San Juan River. Jonathan Thompson at the Land Desk summarized where the streamflow ranked on various rivers.] Here, weโll look at the rainfall that led to the flooding, and make the case that this rainstorm wasnโt just unusual for this part of Colorado, but should be considered among the most extreme storms in state history.
Colorado Highway 151 washed out, between Pagosa Springs and Ignacio. Photo courtesy of the Colorado Department of Transportation.
Extreme rainfall and floods in southern Colorado
There is a history of heavy rainstorms in the fall in southern Colorado, typically with a connection to the remnants of tropical systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The โSonora hurricaneโ of October 1911 was one such storm, which led to the flood of record on the San Juan River and other rivers in the region. Just last year (2025), a similar weather system produced major flooding in southwestern Colorado. That event, which we covered in a couple of blogposts last October, was a one-two punch of moisture from a pair tropical cyclones. Even earlier this fall, the remnants of Tropical Storm Polo moved through the southwestern US and brought heavy rainfall and flooding. But by at least some metrics, the recent late-October storm appears to have topped all of these, especially in the lower-and middle elevation areas of southern Colorado.
The meteorological setup for this event was slightly different from those past cases, which had a more direct influence from the remnant tropical cyclones. The late-October event did have some influence from Tropical Storm Trudy, which formed and moved northward toward the west coast of Mexico in mid-October. Trudy then dissipated and never continued on into the US. However, some of the moisture associated with Trudy, along with generally increased atmospheric moisture in the Pacific related to El Niรฑo (more on that later), was transported northward by a very strong trough of low pressure that approached the US West Coast. So even without a direct influence from a tropical cyclone, a sustained โfirehoseโ of water vapor was aimed at southern Colorado.
How much rain fell, and where?
In terms of the total rainfall accumulation, the highest amounts were observed around the San Juan Mountains in Colorado and New Mexico, and the Abajo Mountains in southeastern Utah. Up to 8 inches of rain fell in four days at high elevations, with widespread observations of 4-6โณ at lower elevations (first map below). Where the rain amounts were most unusual, however, was in the San Luis Valley. Remember that the San Luis Valley is a very dry place: the average annualprecipitation is only 7-9โณ, and getting more than an inch of rain in a single storm is extremely rare. The San Juan Mountains to the west intercept any moisture that heads toward the valley, making a very effective rain shadow. The second map below shows that the entire San Luis Valley received more than 4 times their usual October precipitation in four days. The amounts may not look big (2-4 inches), but this type of rainstorm just doesnโt tend to happen!
Total precipitation (inches) from 22-25 October 2026 with gridded data from the PRISM Climate Group and observations from SNOTEL stations and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network.
Percent of the average October precipitation that fell in this four-day period. The San Juan River and Rio Grande are also shown in blue.
Several stations in the San Luis Valley with climate records extending back 100 years or more had their wettest two-day period on record, including Alamosa, Monte Vista, and Del Norte. (Alamosa and Monte Vista also had their wettest 3-day period.) One way to illustrate how rare a rain event is for a given area is through precipitation frequency analysis, which estimates the probability of a given amount of rain falling in any year. These are often converted to average recurrence intervals (ARIs), so that a storm with a 1% chance of happening in any year is referred to as a โ100-yearโ storm. That terminology can be misleading, because it doesnโt mean that such a storm canโt happen again for another 100 years: itโs just an average. Weโll use that terminology here because itโs simpler, but keep this caveat in mind1.
We see below that for the two-day period from Wednesday morning (21st) to Friday morning (23rd), 2-6 inches of rain fell across southern Colorado. For much of the region (light red shading on the right map below), these two-day totals represented at least a 10-year rainstorm; in parts of Archuleta County and much of the San Luis Valley it was a 100-year rainstorm, and in several parts of the SLV it was more than a 1000-year storm.
Left) Precipitation estimate from NOAAโs Stage IV analysis for the 48-hour period ending the morning of October 23, 2026. (Right) Locations with 48-hour precipitation with less than a 1 in 10 chance (light red shading), less than a 1 in 100 chance (red shading), and less than a 1 in 1000 year (brown shading) of being exceeded in any given year. (Or in other terms, rainfall exceeding a 1 in 10 year average return period in light red, 1 in 100 year in red, and 1 in 1000 year in brown. Average recurrence interval estimates from NOAA Atlas 14.
I want to highlight one observation in particular, from South Fork, Colorado, where the South Fork of the Rio Grande merges with the main stem of that river. A CoCoRaHS volunteer observer reported 4.46โณ of rain in two days, which is an astonishing amount of rain for that location, with less than a 1 in 1000 chance of happening in any given year, based on available statistics. Unfortunately, the flood damage in South Fork was significant, including at the Fun Valley Family Resort. That observer recorded another 1.15โณ of rain on the 25th, for a 4-day rainfall total of 5.64โณ
CoCoRaHS rainfall observations for October 22-23, 2026, in southwestern Colorado.
[I want to take a moment to give a word of huge appreciation to the CoCoRaHS volunteer observers throughout the region, and to particularly point out the observers around Pagosa Springs. That community has now seen two major floods in two years, and the incredible volunteer network, many of them recruited by the Pagosa Weather team, has collected a remarkable dataset documenting the details of both of those storms.]
How did the rainfall compare to last Octoberโs storms?
The map below compares the 4-day total rainfall from the recent event to the totals from the wettest 4-day period in the storms last October. In the San Juan and Rio Grande watersheds, this yearโs event had considerably more precipitation. In the San Luis Valley and extending into Archuleta County and northern New Mexico, 2-4โณ more rain fell in this yearโs storm. The exception was at the highest elevations of the San Juans and in La Plata County, where the October 2025 storm had more precipitation. At least part of this was because last yearโs event was effectively all rain, whereas the high peaks were getting snow in this yearโs storm. The flood peak on the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs was more than 2 feet higher in October 2026 than in the 2025 flood.
Total precipitation from 22-25 October 2026 minus 11-14 October 2025. With the exception of the high elevations of the San Juan Mountains, the October 2026 storm brought more precipitation across southern Colorado.
If we compare the โ1000-year rainfallโ in the October 2026 storm to past events like the September 2013 Front Range floods, this yearโs storm remarkably had even greater coverage of very rare rainfall amounts. Although the total amount of rainfall may not have been as great, considering the records broken and the spatial coverage of rainfall that was extremely rare for the locations where it fell, the October 2026 storm in southern Colorado should clearly be added to the list of the most extreme rainstorms in Colorado history. Trying to rank those storms would be very difficult, but such a list would surely include the October 1911 โSonora hurricaneโ rainfall, the June 1921 storm that flooded Penrose and Pueblo, the June 1965 storms in both northern and southeastern Colorado, the 1976 Big Thompson storm, the September 2013 โGreat Colorado floodโ, and now the October 2026 event in southern Colorado and neighboring states.
What did the storm mean for the drought?
The flip side to all of the flood damage is the benefit to the drought and water supply situation. Going back to the beginning of September, much of southern Colorado has had record-high precipitation, after a brutal snow season and a hot, dry summer. The persistent heavy rain has led to major improvements in drought. Much of southwestern Colorado is now drought-free on the US Drought Monitor, with 3 to 5 category improvements over the last two months.
Rivers in southern Colorado that were near record-low flows in the summer are now near record high flows for the fall. Some reservoirs have seen significant increases in storage as well, particularly Navajo Reservoir on the San Juan River, just across the border in New Mexico. That reservoir saw essentially no increase from snowmelt in the spring and summer, and was nearing record low levels as of early September; the recent storms gave it a huge and much-needed boost. My colleague here at the CCC Peter Goble calculated that from October 22 to 25, approximately 884,000 acre-feet of water fell just in Mineral, Hinsdale, and Archuleta Counties. And going back to the start of the rains in early September, that number would be even bigger.
Farther downstream on the Colorado River, Lake Powell has also seen a noticeable boost in storage, such that it is no longer at a record low. But this is important perspective to keep in mind: even with all the rain, it just gets Powell storage to โnot quite record lowโ. Other important Colorado reservoirs farther north, like Granby and Blue Mesa saw much less precipitation and very little increase in storage from recent storms. Going straight from flood to drought to flood might look something like โaverageโ precipitation, but it isnโt the preferred pathway to get that water. And having a lot of rain in the fall doesnโt undo the damage that was done from the drought earlier in the year (impacts to recreation, agriculture, wildfires, and on and on). So, the drought relief is substantial and welcome now, but we still need a good mountain snow season to improve the situation across Colorado and the southwestern US as a whole.
Where does El Niรฑo fit in to this story, and whatโs coming next?
As Peter outlined in this post, the fall season is when we see some of the most robust connections between El Niรฑo and precipitation in Colorado, with falls tending to be wetter than average in southern Colorado during El Niรฑo. It is quite remarkable how closely this fallโs precipitation patterns thus far match the historical correlations: on the figure below, look at how similar the green shading in the map on the left is to the areas that have seen above-average precipitation this fall!
(left) Map showing the historical correlation between El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and fall precipitation in Colorado, with areas shaded in green showing where fall tends to be wetter during El Niรฑo. (right) Percent of average precipitation from September 1 through October 27.
El Niรฑo years, with warm ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, tend to allow for more moisture to be transported into southern Colorado in the fall. El Niรฑo years also tend to have more hurricanes in the eastern Pacific (this has very much been the case this year), which increase the chances for extreme rainstorms like the ones weโve seen this fall. So thereโs a pretty clear fingerprint of El Niรฑo on this fall season. And, for both better and worse, itโs not going to slow down: another storm will affect southern Colorado this weekend, bringing more water for drought relief, but also more flood risk to the areas that have already been hard-hit. (Sunday, November 1 will see the greatest risk of more heavy rain and flooding, as well as snow at the high elevations.)
Unfortunately, the picture gets murkier as we look beyond that into the main mountain snow season. Although the fall (and spring) seasons tend to be wetter during El Niรฑo years, the signal in the core of winter is not as strong. A big snow year is certainly one possible outcome, but is by no means guaranteed.
1 Another caveat is that the rarer the precipitation amount, the less certain the recurrence interval estimates are. NOAAโs Atlas 14 and the Colorado-New Mexico Regional Extreme Precipitation Study provide uncertainty estimates around the calculations. Here weโre using the โmost likelyโ value from those calculations. โฉ๏ธ
Watching the streamflow gages for Four Corners area rivers has been astounding; seeing the images of the destruction wrought by the high waters is heart-rending. As of mid-day Monday, the rains had mostly moved on, and streamflows were continuing to drop in most areas, but the San Juan River was still running strong at 39,000 cubic feet per second (which appears to be the peak for this storm system). Meanwhile, hundreds of people were only beginning to recover from the flooding, which not only soaked homes and businesses, but also damaged infrastructure โ including sewage treatment facilities โ sending contaminated water downstream.
The rains had no more mercy on the other side of the Great Divide, where the Rio Grande and its tributaries have also flooded communities and infrastructure. The South Fork of the Rio Grande rumbled through the Fun Valley RV resort before making its way into streets and homes of San Luis Valley communities such as Del Norte. On Monday, flows were still rising at the USGS gage near Cerro, New Mexico, upstream from the Taos Gorge, indicating that the brunt of the stream surge has not yet reached riverside communities such as Embudo, Ohkay Owingeh Pueblo, or Espaรฑola.
National and regional news outlets โ along with social media weather chasers โ are all over the flooding and the damage it brought with it, although the bigger outlets havenโt deeply covered the widespread impacts on the Navajo Nation, where even heavy rains, without any actual flooding, can muck up roads and transportation for days, stranding people in remote areas. For that coverage, Iโd urge you to check out the extensive reporting at the Navajo Times.
An unexpected consequence of flooding: More natural gas flaring in the Aneth Oil Field in SE Utah.
As for the Land Desk, Iโm just trying to get a handle on how these high streamflows fit into the historical context. Itโs not easy, in part because thereโs a lot of erroneous information floating around, but also because a lot of the streamflow gages were knocked offline before their respective streams hit their peaks. And then thereโs the lack of consistent measurements and record-keeping over time.
Even so, some of the numbers are just mind-blowing. Take the Piedra River, which runs into the San Juan on the north end of Navajo Reservoir. It reached 17,000 cfs at the USGS gage near its mouth at Arboles then went offline, though it appears that it didnโt rise much higher. Peak streamflow records on this gage only go back to 1964, but still, this yearโs flow was more than twice that of the second highest, which came during the flood of September 1970.
This is the peak flow for the respective water year. Keep in mind that we have been in the 2027 water year since Oct. 1. Land Desk graph using USGS data.
The San Juan River in Pagosa flooded just over a year ago after a huge storm pounded the San Juan Mountains, setting the third highest streamflow on record (eclipsed by the 1911 flood). This yearโs flows were even higher, and slipped into the third place spot.
Land Desk graph using USGS data.
Downstream from there, the San Juan River at Carracas (just upstream from Navajo Reservoir) was raging at 13,000 cfs when it went offline on Oct. 22 (compared to 9,750 cfs in 1970). Combine that with the Piedra flows, and you have at least 30,000 cfs pouring into the reservoir, causing its surface level to shoot up more than 20 feet. Luckily, the reservoir had plenty of room for the new water following the dry summer, meaning it could hold most of it back. Had the dam not been there, the downstream flows would have been far larger, and far more destructive.
Iโve heard a few news reports say that the San Juan River at Farmington reached the highest levels on record since 1909. I canโt find any evidence that thatโs true. Although this gage went offline, a field measurement was taken on Oct. 23 at or near the peak when it was 33,100 cfs. This is still lower than was measured in 1927 and 1929. Estimates for the 1911 Flood are far higher than that (in 1916, USGS hydrologists roughly estimated a 150,000 cfs flow around Shiprock).
Had Navajo Dam not held back that 30,000+ cfs from the San Juan and the Piedra, the flow here very well could have been close to a record high.
Land Desk graph using USGS data.
Contributing to the Farmington gageโs flow is the Animas River, a San Juan Tributary. It got huge, but didnโt quite exceed the September 1970 floodโs streamflow. Measured flows in Oct. 1911 (water year 1912), 1927, and 1949 also exceeded this yearโs flow.
Iโve been told on good authority that the USGS gage just below the Animas-La Plata pumping plant is more accurate than this one (near the Swinging Bridge in the middle of town). However, I stick with this gage because it has the longest historical record of almost any gage in the region. Land Desk graph using USGS data.
After Farmington, the San Juan River continues to receive waters from multiple tributaries, including: La Plata River, Shumway Arroyo, Deadmanโs Wash, Shiprock Wash, and the Mancos River โ all swollen by rains. So by the time it reached the gage at Four Corners, it was running a whopping 54,100 cfs on the night of Oct. 24. Records on this gage only go back to 1988, so thereโs not adequate historical context for a good comparison. But itโs indisputably a huge amount of water, and set off alarm bells downstream in Aneth, Montezuma Creek, Bluff, and Mexican Hat, Utah.
Past the Four Corners gage, this veritable wall of water was supplemented by McElmo Creek (which peaked during the storm at a very large 1,590 cfs), Montezuma Creek, and Recapture Creek before reaching Bluff. After breaching a wastewater storage pond for the town of Montezuma Creek, the waters continued onward, spreading out in the floodplain near St. Christopherโs Mission east of Bluff, inundating fields and homes, and then moving into Bluffโs fringe, where it also affected structures. In a Facebook post, Bluff Mayor Josh Ewing estimated that โ17 homes and 3 businesses have extensive damage.โ
Downstream from Bluff, more tributaries add even more to the San Juan monster: Cottonwood, Comb, and Chinle washes and Lime Creek. However, by the time that pulse of upstream flows had reached this area, the rains had subsided along with those arroyosโ flows. So the USGS gage โnear Bluff,โ which is actually located at Mexican Hat, ended up peaking at 38,000 cfs 41,600 cfs on Monday at about 10:30 a.m. That actually puts this yearโs peak (WY 2027 in the graph below) at 5th place since 1915. There was no gauge here during the 1911 Flood, but a USGS paleo-flood investigation concluded that the river that year reached about 150,000 cfs.
Land Desk graph using USGS data.
All of this is good for Lake Powell, of course. After reaching a record low of about 3,516 feet in mid-September, the reservoirโs surface elevation has jumped up to 3,527 feet, and will surely rise more as this San Juan River pulse reaches it in a few days. Whether this is just a temporary respite, or a more long-term salve for the Colorado River crisis depends on whether this El Niรฑo-influenced moisture burst will continue into winter and transform from rain into the mountain snowpack on which the rivers rely.
For an in-depth look at the regionโs floods from ancient times to today, check out this (newly updated) longform Land Desk piece from the archives, available exclusively to paid subscribers. But donโt get mad at the paywall, break it down for less than a cup of coffee a month and โฆ
The La Plata Mountains in full autumnal splendor. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Jonathan posted this on BlueSky after the publication of the article below:
San Juan River downstream from Bluff hit 14,800 cfs last night, it's highest level since 2013. More rain coming today. This will boost Lake Powell's levels and give rafters a pretty fast ride! nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/ut/nwis/peak…
Welcome to another totally human-curated (and a bit late) edition of the Land Deskโs Newswire, a weekly compendium of important news happening around the Four Corners Country and beyond. Once again, the big news is the weird weather, which includes soaking rain, snow, big rivers, and even a tornado.
The Paria River where it meets the Colorado swelled up to about 2,000 cubic feet per second two days ago, and had I stuck around Lees Ferry for an hour or so longer I might have witnessed it. Instead, I headed south and east under a constant gray sky and passing through squalls on the way.
โForrest Gump Hillโ in Monument Valley, the place to where people travel from far far away to take a photo of themselves in the middle of the road, was as crowded โ and hazardous โ as ever. The buttes and bluffs near Montezuma and Aneth were carpeted with such green that I was disoriented, and in McElmo Canyon, where it looks like farmers will easily get another cutting of hay, the vibe was much more August monsoon than October storm.
The landscape around Aneth, Utah, is unusually verdant this October. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Tropical Storm Rachel has brought significant moisture to a big swath of the Southwest and beyond over the last few days. Observers with the CoCoRaHSnetwork reported 24-hour rainfall totals of as much as two inches (in the Hermosa area north of Durango), bringing the Animas River through Durango up to 2,380 cubic feet per second and rising, as of noon on Oct. 14. A bit to the east of there, the Piedra River near Arboles shot up to 2,190 cfs, and Vallecito Creek has topped 1,000 cfs as I write this around noon on Oct. 14.
As of the morning of Oct. 14, very wet, slushy snow โ or, as the Germans call it, Schneeregen โ was falling on Dove Creek, Colorado, elevation 6,800 feet. It wasnโt sticking there, yet, but folks in Silverton (9,318 feet) woke up to a dusting on the ground, marking the first SNOTEL station-detected snowpack in the Animas River watershed (a .6โ snow water equivalent).
Southwest Colorado residents reported a tornado between Tiffany and Allison, near the New Mexico border on the afternoon of Oct. 13. One Facebook poster said it hit her dadโs property and damaged outbuildings, while others reported that it took out barns, ripped up fencing, and uprooted trees.
Social media posts show that thereโs enough snow on Grand Mesa in western Colorado for some ski touring.
SNOTEL stations on the Upper Colorado River Basin are showing well above normal precipitation accumulation for the first two weeks of Water Year 2027.
And in other weather and climate related news โฆ
The heat has once again taken its toll in the Phoenix area. The cityโs fire department recorded 1,744 heat-related calls โ significantly more than last year โ between May 1 and Aug. 31, including 98 rescues from mountain trails and 14 patients that had to be hoisted by helicopter. Maricopa County has recorded 389 confirmed heat-related fatalities this summer, with another 383 under investigation. (ABC15,Maricopa County)
๐ข๏ธ FOSSIL FUEL FOLLIES ๐
The Bureau of Land Management moves ahead with plans to lease 113 parcels covering 126,440 acres of public land in Colorado for oil and gas drilling, despite widespread opposition. Among the land to be on the auction block in December are 5,000 acres on the Roan Plateau and several parcels in the HD Mountains and near Chimney Rock National Monument just north of the Southern Ute Indian Reservation in southwestern Colorado. The protest period ends on Nov. 8. (Aspen Daily News, BLM)
A New Mexico advocate laments Permian Basin oil and gas drillingโs effects on residents, the landscape, and the Pecos River, calling it a โbeautiful river in the middle of a hellscape.โ (Capital & Main)
An analysis finds Arizona utility Salt River Project customers could pay up to eight times more to operate the Craig coal plant under the Trump administrationโs emergency orders than for solar-plus-storage resources. The plant was scheduled to shut down at the end of last year. (Energy & Policy Institute)
A coalition of environmental groups files a lawsuit seeking to block the Bureau of Land Managementโs approval of a road construction project, aka hydrocarbon highway, in Gate Canyon in eastern Utah designed to expedite oil-hauling in the Uinta Basin. Gate Canyon feeds into the culturally significant Nine Mile Canyon. (SUWA, BLM)
๐ต PUBLIC LANDS ๐ฒ
A federal court temporarily blocks the Trump administrationโs plans to reorganize โ some would say dismantle โ the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which included moving the Forest Service headquarters to Salt Lake City and shuttering multiple research facilities. โThese forced moves were never about efficiency. They were about pushing experienced people out the door,โ said American Federation of Government Employees President Everett Kelley in a statement. (Politico)
U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) introduces legislation that would require congressional approval for federal land withdrawals of more than 5,000 acres, including for presidential designations of national monuments under the Antiquities Act. (Navajo-Hopi Observer)
๐ฆซ WILDLIFE WATCH ๐ฆ
The Preregrine Fund releases four more California condors into the wild at Marble Canyon in northern Arizona, bringing the areaโs flock of the endangered birds up to 96. (Arizona Republic)
Condor X8, a female hatched in 2018, sits on a Navajo Bridge beam which spans Marble Canyon in northern Arizona. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Wyoming wildlife officials say 14% of the Sublette Pronghorn Herd died over six weeks this summer, and attribute the unusually high mortality rate to malnutrition resulting from drought-parched forage. (WyoFile)
๐ป TRANSPORTATION ๐
Len Necefer goes deep on the electric vehicle charging network โ or lack thereof โ on tribal nationsโ land in Arizona. (All At Once by Dr. Len)
๐ค GENTRIFICATION JOURNAL๐ฐ
Sublette County, Wyomingโs commissioners vote to eliminate a 2021 zoning change that cleared the way for billionaire Joe Rickettโs proposed upscale resort in the Upper Hoback River area. (WyoFile)
๐จ๏ธ๐ฆฆ๐ฃ๐ฝ WATER WATCH ๐
Rural Arizonans in the Prescott area are forced to haul water as regional population growth and aridification draw down groundwater levels and dry out wells. (Cronkite News)
โ๏ธ MINING MONITOR โ๏ธ
The Navajo Nationโs Coppermine Chapter passes a resolution โunequivocallyโ opposing Chakana Copperโs proposed Copper Mesa Project in a historically mined area near Page, Arizona; mining company executives say they wonโt go forward unless the project is โwholeheartedly endorsed by the community.โ (KJZZ, Essential Minerals)
Hillsboro, New Mexico, residents push back on New Mexico Copperโs proposed Copper Flat mining project near the small community, with water consumption topping their list of concerns. (Searchlight New Mexico, New Mexico Copper)
๐ญ OVERSIGHT (or lack thereof) ๐ฎ๐ผ
Journalist and clean energy advocate Bill McKibben delves into the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, or permitting reform legislation, thoroughly exploring arguments for and agains. Though he is conflicted, and agrees on many points with proponents of the bill, he ultimately comes down in opposition to the legislation because it weakens bedrock environmental laws and would benefit fossil fuels. (The Crucial Years)
An 18-year Interior Department veteran resigns to protest the Trump administrationโs โdeeply troubling assault on the rule of lawโ and its efforts to weaken or eviscerate environmental protections to benefit the fossil fuel industries. (Public Domain)
An outtake from John Murdockโs resignation letter from the Department of the Interior. Source: Public Domain.
Leaked data show the Interior Department has lost nearly 10,000 permanent staffers since the Trump administration took office, with the Bureau of Land Management staff down by 45% since 2024. (Wes Silerโs Newsletter)
๐ ECONOMIC INDICATORS ๐ธ
Page, Arizonaโs economy shows signs of a shift as the lodging, retail, restaurant, and grocery sectors fade while the construction, remote seller, amusements, and commercial leasing areas surge. (Choose Page)
๐ค DATA CENTER DIGEST ๐พ
An analysis finds about 100 data centers have driven nearly all of the increased demand on Arizona Public Serviceโs power grid, and the utility is charging its entire customer base to purchase outside power to meet the growing load, prompting state Attorney General Kris Mayes to call for an investigation. (KJZZ, Abhay Padgaonkar)
Arizona data show that the stateโs sales and use tax exemption for data centersโ computer equipment cost the state $38.5 million in fiscal year 2025, up from $19.4 million in 2024. (Good Jobs First)
Federal data show proposals for grid-connected gas-fired power plants have nearly tripled over the last three years, largely due to data center-driven electricity demand growth. At least 12 of the facilities in the planning pipeline are in the Western U.S. (Environment America)
Oracle considers trucking natural gas to its Project Jupiter data center complexunder construction in southern New Mexico after the state denied its proposed gas pipeline, prompting Energy Transfer LP to reroute it. Oracle also trucks gas to one of its data centers in Salt Lake City, adding to the facilityโs environmental impacts. (Searchlight New Mexico)
๐ GOOD NEWS! ๐
The MacArthur Foundation awards Chip Thomas, aka Jetsonorama, a genius grant for his large-scale murals with social justice themes that can be found across the Southwest and on the Navajo Nation. (NPR)
The High Desert Museum is accepting nominations for the Jordan Schnitzer Prize of the West, a $50,000 philanthropic award for leaders tackling the American Westโs most pressing environmental challenges, from water scarcity to wildfire, that is awarded annually to an individual or small group who has contributed in practice, scholarship, or policy to the regionโs future, with emphasis on innovation, social impact, uncommon collaborations, and scalability. Nominations are open through Dec. 31. (High Desert Museum)
Dolores River watershed
๐ READING LIST ๐ฐ
Heads up Four Corners area folks: Iโll be giving a presentation on the Dolores River as part of a Dolores River Boating Advocatesโ event on Friday, Nov. 6, from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. at the Powerhouse in Durango. Following a short film about Snaggletooth Rapid Iโll speak about my personal relationship with the Dolores River, its history, the way it is a sort of microcosm of the Colorado River as a whole, and about its potential futures. Iโll also throw in a funny little tale about the time I saw Ed Abbey go through Snaggletooth. Tickets are $10 โ which will help DRBA defray costs โ and seating is limited. There will also be a cash bar. Reserve your spot now: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/a-changing-dolores-river-a-conversation-with-drba-and-jonathan-thompson-tickets-2001390992334
POSTSCRIPT
Iโm going to be out and about and on the road and often off grid for the next week, meaning these dispatches may come even more sporadically than this one! My apologies for any confusion or Land Desk withdrawal symptoms that may lead to.
New Mexicoโs Elephant Butte Reservoir was nearly full on June 2, 1994 (left), in contrast with very low levels on July 27, 2026 (right). NASA Earth Observatory/Michala Garrison
On July 11, the Rio Grande dried up at the streamflow gauge about 18 miles upstream from Truth or Consequences, New Mexico. It was notable, because this stretch of riverbed was once actually underneath Elephant Butte Reservoir, the stateโs largest reservoir and an important storage facility for downstream irrigators. But by this summer, two decades of drought had reduced Elephant Butte to just 1.7% of its 652 billion-gallon capacity, leaving behind a mudflat that soon became a dry, dusty riverbed. By September, however, the previously barren riverbed was flowing at more than 3,000 cubic feet per second. Elephant Butteโs surface level rose by several feet, and the green chile-growing communities of the Lower Rio Grande Valley experienced severe flooding caused by record-breaking rainfall boosted by a hurricane in the Pacific.
In many ways, this contrast of extreme dryness with surprising amounts of drenching moisture provides a snapshot of the 2026 water year, which ended on Sept. 30. In the Colorado River and Rio Grande watersheds, it was marked by both intense drought and record-breaking rains that inspired devastating wildfires later followed by catastrophic floods. One of the driest 10 months on record was bookmarked by record-breaking rainfall.
In short, the 2026 water year was one of the weirdest ever experienced by much of the West. And climate changeโs fingerprints are all over it.
The water year started off on a rainy note, especially in the San Juan River Basin in southwestern Colorado, the source of one of the Colorado Riverโs largest tributaries. Remnants of a tropical storm dumped over 6 inches of rain in about 48 hours at Wolf Creek Pass, near the headwaters of the San Juan and Rio Grande. This caused the San Juan River to swell to more than 8,000 cubic feet per second, jump its banks, and wreak havoc and destruction on the town of Pagosa Springs. It also boosted the surface elevation of Navajo Reservoir on the Colorado-New Mexico border by some 50 feet.
It all seemed to bode well for the winter to come. If that amount of moisture were to fall as snow, it would provide a deep base for skiers and for the following springโs runoff, which is what keeps the nationโs second-biggest reservoir, Lake Powell, from going dry. But this year, the snow failed to fall like it normally would, even in the depths of winter. When it did fall, it tended to melt, sometimes even before it reached the ground.
Part of the problem was timing: The abundant precipitation came too early to fall as snow. But the biggest factor was temperature. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data reveals that most of the West experienced its warmest autumn and winter on record. The only exception was the Pacific Northwest, which had its second-warmest autumn and winter in 130 years. The result was that even places that received near-normal precipitation accumulation and werenโt technically in a drought suffered through one of the most severe snow droughts in recorded history.
The Westโs streams and rivers โ and therefore its reservoirs and irrigation ditches and municipal water systems โ depend on snowmelt for at least 80% of their flows. A bad snow year leads to scant runoff, which in turn drains reservoirs. In September, Lake Powell reached its lowest level since the 1960s, setting off alarms across the region for the tens of millions of people that rely on it.
Droughts โ even snow droughts โ arenโt unusual in the West. Nor are extreme weather fluctuations. But this yearโs drought was one of the most severe in over a century. A peer-reviewed paper published this summer out of the Colorado School of Mines determined that it was almost certainly the result of human-caused climate change.
The authors found that across the West as a whole, the 2026 snow drought was about four times more likely to occur in the current climate than during the 1850-1900 comparison period. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, where the drought was most severe, these dire conditions were about 14 times more likely to occur in our current climate than in pre-industrial times.
That doesnโt mean we should expect severe snow droughts every year from here on out. But as global temperatures continue to increase, Westerners should gird themselves for more extreme, increasingly weird, and very often destructive weather.
Note: This story was updated to include charts for the snow water equivalent in the upper Colorado River region from 2026.
Click the link to read the article on the Ink Stain website (John Fleck):
October 13, 2026
Green acreage in non-Pueblo MRGCD irrigable parcels, summer 2026
Area of green land in the non-Pueblo Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, summers 2017โ2026. Bars give the area of 10 m Sentinel-2 pixels with median JuneโAugust NDVI ? 0.45, summed over the 10,551 parcels of the districtโs 2021 irrigation survey (58,145 acres; right axis expresses area as a percentage of that total). Error bars show the same count at NDVI cuts of 0.50 (lower) and 0.40 (upper); they express sensitivity to the cut, not a statistical interval. The parcel boundaries are fixed at their 2021 extent in every year, so each bar is the green area within those parcels, not a survey of that summer. *2021 is the year the cut was calibrated against the surveyโs recorded irrigation labels. NDVI cannot distinguish irrigation by canal, well or municipal supply from shallow groundwater or rainfall. 2026 is highlighted (17.3 thousand acres; 13.9โ21.2 across the cut range, against 36.2 thousand acres in 2017). Data: Copernicus Sentinel-2 surface reflectance (ESA), scene-classification cloud mask, summer median composite; parcels from the MRGCD 2021 ISOlog. Methodology caption written by Claude.
2026 provided a remarkable convergence of a natural experiment on New Mexicoโs Middle Rio Grande (a river and therefore irrigation system with little or no water) and the rapid advancement of what Iโve come to think of as โCuriosity Exploder Toolsโ (CETs, also more commonly known as LLMs or AI).
Weโve got European Space Agency satellites flying overhead every five-ish days hoovering up data, Google Earth Engine processing power in โthe cloud,โ and now tools like Codex and Claude Code to handle the fiddly bits of code writing, driving down the transaction costs of asking a question by orders of magnitude.
We donโt have meters on irrigated land in the Middle Rio Grande, so remote sensing is the best we can do.
This uses MRGCDโs spatial mapping of irrigated parcels, with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure of plant greenness, using observations from the European Space Agencyโs Sentinel-2 satellites. 10 meter resolution roughly every five days. โGreenโ here is not an either/or, itโs a more-or-less thing. I chose an NDVI cutoff based on a reading of 0.45, benchmarked against an MRGCD dataset from 2021 of parcels either irrigated or fallowed. The cutoff is arbitrary (but sane based on my 2021 control set), the relative scale is what matters.
The satellite canโt tell us the difference among ditch water, wells (both irrigation and domestic), municipal water, and trees with their roots in the shallow aquifer. But as I wrote with a group of colleagues earlier this year, โAgencies donโt use water, people do.โ All four can be present on these parcels. I checked precipitation, itโs not throwing off the numbers.
Iโve now got a stunning set of maps of this on my hard drive โ MRGCD non-Pueblo land by division and sub-section, year by year โ a record of how people are greening the valley ditch by ditch and parcel by parcel. As Robin Sloan said, ask for what you want. Curiosity Exploder Tools.
However you interpret it, the satellite data suggests a significant reduction in 2026 consumptive use of water on these parcels, a remarkable water conservation success story, if you will.
n.b. โStudyโ design by John Fleck in conversation with Claude Code, data processing pipeline by Claude Code with Google Earth Engine analysis.
Map of the Rio Grande watershed. Graphic credit: WikiMedia
A new collaboration between state and local organizations in the San Luis Valley aims to conserve and protect the region’s water and lands. The San Luis Valley Conservation and Legacy Projectโsย objectives include leveraging the areaโs natural assets and cultural heritage to create economic opportunity. A recent gathering of local and state leaders identified ways to support agriculture and outdoor recreation in the region and serve the long-term interests of communities. Priorities include safeguarding water resources in both the Rio Grande River and in the groundwater aquifers. That could include paying farmers to leave water in the river and its tributaries to help create and maintain healthy riparian environments for wildlife, fishing recreation and agriculture by potentially paying farmers to leave water in the river and its tributaries. Also among the goals are promoting a regional identity and cooperation among various stakeholders, as well as attracting responsible tourism that brings money to the area without increasing the risk of wildfire, trashing the environment or straining search and rescue teams.
Graph from the 1946 federal report, โThe Colorado River: A Natural Menace Becomes a Natural Resource,โ showing the value of livestock to Upper Basin states.
It seems like only a few years ago that a PR person from the East Coast emailed me to tell me how surprised she was to read in the Land Desk that alfalfa and other livestock forage crops guzzled up a lot of the Westโs water. โI didnโt even know they still grew alfalfa,โ she wrote, incredulously. Actually, it was only a few years ago, but my how things have changed in the realm of alfalfa discourse. Iโm guessing she and just about everyone else who pays attention has figured that one out by now, as itโs become vogue in certain circles to assert that the solution to the Westโs water crisis is simply to stop growing alfalfa and other โlow-valueโ agricultural crops and use the water for cities and data centers, instead. At the very least, they argue, we shouldnโt be exporting alfalfa overseas.
Iโm not going to jump into that hornetโs nest again, at least not today. Instead, I dug up a bunch of data and used them to build a handful of graphs that will, hopefully, illuminate the situation a bit and give all parties โ alfalfaphobes and alfalfaphiles alike โ something to chew on. Call it statistical cud that Iโve gnawed on, masticated, partially digested, and now am handing over to you to derive some nutrients from. (Eww. Thatโs gross. Sorry.)
From the 1946 report, โThe Colorado River: A Natural Menace Becomes a Natural Resource.โ
This is for each state as a whole, and includes acreage that is not in the Colorado River Basin and that is not irrigated with Colorado River water (in Californiaโs Central Valley, for example, or Coloradoโs San Luis Valley, or around the Great Salt Lake in Utah). Note that this graph singles out alfalfa, and does not include acreage planted in other types of hay or forage (the other graphs look at hay generally). Data Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service.
While hay and alfalfa are often maligned as โlow-valueโ crops, farmers also grow it to make money. As you can see from the chart below, farmers in Colorado River Basin states harvested nearly $5 billion worth of hay in 2022. Thatโs on a par with the Colorado ski industryโsย annual economic output.
Over the last two decades or so, Western state farmers have sold an increasing amount of hay, especially alfalfa, to overseas buyers. This is largely due to the growing global taste and demand for cow-milk products. Alfalfa is favored by dairy operations because its high protein content increases milk yield. So if youโre trying to reduce alfalfa demand by quitting beef, youโre barking up the wrong tree; youโll have to ditch the ice cream and cheese, as well (or switch to goat or sheep milk products).
While hay exports are a billion-dollar-per-year industry, they are dropping off for a variety of reasons, from tariffs and trade wars to Chinaโs shrinking dairy herds and gradually decreasing production here at home.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
While the Western hay-export industry brought in over $1 billion in 2022, itโs not quite accurate to say thatย mostย of the regionโs hay production is for export. Still, more than 20% is quite a lot of Western water to be sending overseas on giant container ships.
In 2025, exports accounted for about 17% of all Colorado River Basin state hay production value. Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
The largest hay exporter in the West is California, with Arizona and Utah trading second and third places. Other Colorado River Basin states export insignificant amounts of hay, according to the USDAโs Foreign Agricultural Service.
Californiaโs biggest overseas hay customers have been Japan and China, though the China market has been shrinking since 2022. Source: USDA FAS
China has been Utahโs biggest hay buyer by far, though it also ships hay to Korea and Japan. Source: USDA FAS.
Most of the hay exported from Arizona has traditionally gone to Saudi Arabia via Fondomonte Farms, which is owned by Almarai, a huge Saudi dairy and food company. Fondomonte owns farms in Arizona where it grows its own alfalfa for export. Fondomonte pumps groundwater for irrigation, which is not counted against Arizonaโs allocation from the Colorado River (even though groundwater and surface water are connected). Source: USDA FAS.
So whatโs the takeaway from all of this? Well, like I said, Iโm just providing the fodder for you to ruminate on, so to speak.
But it does definitively show that alfalfa and hay arenโt just some kind of side gig for Western farmers. They are important crops. And trying to convince farmers to give them up โ along with the nearly $5 billion per year they can generate โ is going to be tough, even if it is necessary.
โ๏ธ MINING MONITOR โ๏ธ
In last weekโs dispatch on more mining claims staked in the shrunken Bears Ears National Monument I mentioned a few dozen that appeared to have been located by Land Survey Advisors, including some in the former monument. I was able to finally get past the glitches in the San Juan County database and get confirmation that all 36 claims were, in fact, staked within Bears Earsโ pre-shrinkage boundaries. That brings the total number of new claims in Bears Ears to 72.
Iโll map all of the claims for a future dispatch and will continue to keep my eyes open for more new ones.
๐ READING (&LISTENING) ROOM ๐ฐ
The Magic Southwest podcast has an insightful episode about the lost working-class neighborhoods that once lined the Animas River in Durango.ย Well, I shouldnโt say theyโre โlost.โ They were mostly destroyed by the city to make way for roads, sewage treatment plants, parks, or just as a form of urban renewal, if you will. Give it a listen below:
Heads up Four Corners area folks: Iโll be giving a presentation on the Dolores River as part of a Dolores River Boating Advocatesโ event on Friday, Nov. 6, from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. at the Powerhouse in Durango.ย Following a short film about Snaggletooth Rapid Iโll speak about my personal relationship with the Dolores River, its history, the way it is a sort of microcosm of the Colorado River as a whole, and about its potential futures. Iโll also throw in a funny little tale about the time I saw Ed Abbey go through Snaggletooth. Tickets are $10 โ which will help DRBA defray costs โ and seating is limited. There will also be a cash bar.ย Reserve your spot now.ย
โ๏ธ WACKY WEATHER WATCHโก๏ธ
Things are getting crazy down in southern New Mexico, especially near Hatch, where the Rio Grande has jumped its banks and inundated fields, homes, and even I-25. Check out the video below for more. And stay tuned next week when I have a recap of the 2026 water year, which may have been the wackiest on record.
hat will do it for now when it comes to moisture for the Upper Rio Grande Basin.
The 2.3 inches of rain that fell in September, or 1.29 inches more than whatโs normal for the month, felt like a godsend after a summer of intense heat, when fishermen were asked to leave their rods at home and bears wandered into the lower elevations seeking food and water.
Not to mention the odd spring that delivered a string of days that reached 80 degrees or higher in March and ruined the potatoes in storage.
No doubt 2026 has been warm, days and nights.
Now comes the test of the anticipated El Niรฑo winter season, which is expected to peak in November and persist through February 2027. Winter doesnโt begin until Dec. 21, but for the Upper Rio Grande Basin itโs the snowpack from the San Juan Mountains that is vital, which translates into wanting to see a good amount of snow by Thanksgiving for the Wolf Creek area. Even better if Poncha Pass to the north and La Veta Pass to the east see the snow fly as well.
โIf we donโt get an above normal, or at least normal snowpack this winter and subsequent runoff next spring, that will just exacerbate the dire condition that we are already in,โ says Craig Cotten, San Luis Valley division engineer for the Colorado Division of Water Resources.
His office measures the water to determine Coloradoโs obligations to neighboring New Mexico under the Rio Grande Compact.
From January through August, Colorado has delivered 67,000 acre-feet of water to the state line with New Mexico to meet its obligations under the shared three-state water agreement. Cotten says the state Division of Water Resources is anticipating that the September through December deliveries will be more than enough to meet Coloradoโs obligation, and likely significantly exceed it.
โIn a typical year, Colorado delivers around 80,000-90,000 acre-feet during the winter, non-irrigation season, so that is why we have not had any curtailment of ditches to provide specific compact deliveries,โ he said.
It was mid-October a year ago when historic rains saved the Rio, a rare large precipitation event that dramatically increased the river flows, filled irrigation ditches, and helped ensure the planting fields went into winter wet and in good shape for spring.
Only it didnโt last because rain is no substitute for snow when it comes to the health of the Upper Rio Grande Basin.
Will El Niรฑo deliver this year? Will late fall into the winter bring the needed freezing temperatures to sustain a long winter of snow pack?
If not, you donโt want to know what next spring and summer will mean.
La Jara Reservoir and its surrounding lands have been used by cattle grazers and outdoorsmen of all sorts โ fishermen, hunters, backpackers โ for generations. Credit: The Citizen
Anna Vargas noted it first. There was more water in La Jara Reservoir on Saturday than when she had been weeks earlier. That in itself was a blessing.
Then there was the discovery of a piece of volcanic glass obsidian by Loretta Mitson that excited the group, along with evidence of a habitation site lord knows how many thousands of years ago just above the thin reservoir.
La Jara Reservoir holds millions of years of archeology, shown by a rock with markings and a piece of volcanic obsidian. Credit: The Citizen
Anna Vargas, left, and Chris Canaly, center left, of the SLV Ecosystem Council. Credit: The Citizen
Vargas and Mitson were part of a caravan of conservationists, archeologists and public officials who took a field trip to mark National Public Lands Day in the La Jara Basin.
They had another purpose as well.
Back in November 2025, the Colorado State Land Board voted to transfer ownership of the La Jara Basin property to a trio of public agencies โ Colorado Parks & Wildlife, U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Bureau of Land Management โ through a $49.5 million transaction funded through federal tax appropriations, state tax dollars and money from agencies like Colorado Great Outdoors.
Vargas and her boss, Chris Canaly, executive director of San Luis Valley Ecosystem Council, organized the outing that brought along Mitson, one of the Valleyโs noted historians; Colorado State Sen. Cleave Simpson; Saguache County Commissioner Tom McCracken; and Mick Daniels and Estaban Salazar from San Luis Valley Great Outdoors, among others, to put attention back on the transaction. The expectation is that the thousands of pages of paperwork involved will be signed, money transferred, and the deal finalized by yearโs end.
โWe are setting the table for what is going to be happening, we hope soon,โ said Canaly, promising a grand event for next summer when all the paperwork is complete.
State Land Board office manager Jenny Minich told Alamosa Citizen that a more definitive update on the closure of the transaction should be available in the next couple of months.
โI think itโs going to be quite a wonderful gathering,โ said Canaly in anticipation of the finality of the deal and a celebration of the La Jara Basin to come.
Allen Law of the Western Rivers Conservancy talks about the history of the La Jara Reservoir land. Credit: The Citizen
How the La Jara Basin ended up in the hands of the state of Colorado is unique. Then how the state through its land board eventually came around to transferring ownership to federal partners and Colorado Parks & Wildlife rather than sell the land holdings to a private party is another tale.
โThis property is really unique within their ownership because when states would come into being, the federal government would deed them a certain amount of land in every township and they were supposed to use those lands to raise money for schools in the frontier states,โ said Allen Law of Western Rivers Conservancy, who joined the public lands day trip.
โAnd how La Jara came to be is, some of those sections that should have been state sections were already homesteaded or they were on reservation lands or treaty lands or things like that. So those sections werenโt available. The federal government instead gave the state land board a big block of, I think they call them in lieu of lands, and that is what the core of this place, La Jara, is. It was basically like the โOops, we already gave away a bunch of your land. Weโll make it up to you here.โโ
Cattle grazers and outdoorsmen of all sorts โ fishermen, hunters, backpackers โ have used the La Jara Basin for generations. The decision to move the property away from state land holdings was fraught with the idea that the state could sell the property into private hands to achieve the highest sale price.
But behind the scenes was Erin Minks, then-aide to Sen. Michael Bennet in the San Luis Valley. It was Minks who began to inform her colleagues of the importance of maintaining La Jara as public lands and that the senator needed to lead the charge.
What followed was a series of federal appropriations starting with fiscal year 2023 that saw the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management squirreling away dollars for the eventual purchase of the lands that surround the reservoir. The federal money, $43.5 million, is coming through the U.S. Department of Interiorโs Land and Water Conservation Fund, which is used to โsafeguard natural areas, water resources and cultural heritage.โ
โWe always get the question, โWhatโs going to change up here?โโ said Law of Western Rivers. โEverybodyโs vision is that what happens up here stays pretty much the same.
โThat has always been the goal, is we want the community use to continue. We want the grazing to continue. We want folks to be able to cut wood, hunt, fish, camp, all of those things. So really at the end of the day, if weโre successful, hopefully people wonโt notice any change at all and thatโs kind of the core of conservation.โ
The SLV Ecosystem Council organized an outing with this group to mark National Public Lands Day and to push for the finalization of the La Jara Basin land transfer. Credit: The Citizen
La Jara Reservoir. Credit: The Citizen
Once finalized, the U.S. Forest Service will take over 21,821 acres and BLM will manage 21,704 acres of the La Jara Basin. CPW, in turn, will manage the reservoir area.
Vargas read aloud a land acknowledgement as the group stood in a circle, acutely aware of their surroundings and the meaning of their Saturday journey to La Jara Reservoir.
โOn this day, we gratefully acknowledge the Indigenous peoples on whose ancestral homelands we gather,โ Vargas read. โWe acknowledge that our sustenance and prosperity is derived from the lands of our peoples and ancestors who have been caretakers of the San Luis Valley.โ
A bigger celebration to come.
A view across La Jara Reservoir from a hill between the reservoir’s two dams, back in the day. The reservoir is in Conejos County, Colorado. By Jeffrey Beall – Own work, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=140180051
Click the link to read the article on the InkStain website (John Fleck):
September 16, 2026
Updating my โdrought and climate changeโ lecture each fall is a useful exercise โ this year more useful than most. Much like the year itself, my slide deck is setting all time records for new data visualizations needed to make sense of the remarkable 2026.
Update
Great questions from the comments. (I love my commenters.) First, a request to include a smoother to make the trend more legible:
Now with bonus smoother.
Second, an observation that it looks like it tracks the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a large scale pattern linked to drier conditions in the southwest. Good eye! A quick run of the numbers based on prior-year fall PDO shows a statistically significant but small (r squared explaining 6 โ 9 percent of the variance) relationship.
Worth noting that this is all of the water flowing past Otowi, which is a function of climate and all the many human activities upstream (irrigation reducing flow, San Juan-Chama adding to flow). So itโs not solely a climate signal.
Weirdly, when I redid the analysis for the Del Norte gage, which is above the San Luis Valley diversions and should be a clearer climate-alone signal, the relationship disappears. No correlation at all with PDO, which surprised me.
Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. Map credit: By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, drainage basin from GTOPO [1], U.S. stream from the National Atlas [2], all other features from Vector Map., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11218868
Welcome to the first edition of the Land Deskโs Newswire, a human-curated summary (we are a non-AI shop, FYI) of some of the weekโs biggest headlines that concern land, water, and other Western issues. Iโm still working out the timing of this, and how it will meld with the weekโs other dispatches, so expect some adjustments in coming weeks. Please give it a gander and, as always, I appreciate your feedback.
๐ฃ๐ฝ WATER WATCH ๐
New Mexico officialsย release about 2,000 acre-feet of water from Abiquiu Dam to provide a temporary un-drying of the Rio Grandeโs desiccated riverbedย through Albuquerque in an attempt to nourish stressed vegetation, recharge the aquifer, and to study the effects of such pulses. Audubon Southwest leased about 300 acre-feet of the water from various users, the Middle Rio Grande Conservation District contributed 300 acre-feet more, and the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority provided the remaining 1,400 acre-feet from its share of river imported from the Colorado River Basin via the San Juan-Chama Project.ย (Inkstain,ย Laura Paskus,ย KUNM)
Aurora Water โ a municipal utility on Coloradoโs Front Range โ looksย to buy Lower Arkansas Valley farmersโ water rightsย to feed the cityโs future growth, sparking concerns about negative impacts of โbuy and dryโ deals. But officials say it would be a โbuy and (only partially) dryโ deal that keeps some of the water in agriculture.ย (Colorado Sun)
๐ต PUBLIC LANDS ๐ฒ
A new study finds federal land management agenciesย spent $1 billion lessย on vendors in Western states in 2025 compared to 2024, acutely affecting the small business sector. Some of the largest cuts were to wildland fire management investments, particularly on-the-ground suppression work as spending was shifted to aerial firefighting.ย (news release)
Conservation groups file a lawsuitย challenging oil and gas leasing on hundreds of thousands of acres of public landย in big-game migration corridors and wilderness quality lands in Wyoming and Colorado, saying the BLM violated federal law by skirting environmental protections.ย (news release)
The Bureau of Land Managementย seeks public input on 38 proposed oil and gas leases on 66,221 acresย in northwestern Colorado that would be auctioned off in March 2027. The bulk of the parcels are under the jurisdiction of the BLMโs Kremmling and Little Snake River field offices, with one in the Royal Gorge office.ย (news release)
๐ฆซ WILDLIFE WATCH ๐ฆ
Colorado Parks and Wildlife officersย euthanize a lethargic and unresponsive 300-pound male bear in Durango, finding that its stomach and intestines were completely blocked with trash. โWeโve all heard the oft-repeated phrase โgarbage kills bearsโ for years,โ said Bryan Peterson of Bear Smart Durango. โAnd many have asked how in the world does trash get bears killed? Well, in many ways, but sometimes literally. Our communityโs tepid approach to trash management got a bear killed. Thankfully, its pain and suffering was ended.โย (news release)
Colorado Parks and Wildlife officersย โlethally remove,โ i.e. kill, two male yearling wolvesย from two separate packs after the animals were linked to attacks on sheep and cattle in Rio Blanco and Pitkin counties.ย (news release,ย Summit Daily)
๐ฎ GRAZING GAZETTE ๐ฅฉ
A Wyoming advocate shows how the stateโsย agriculture industryโs resource footprint โ in terms of water use for irrigation and land-use for livestock grazing โ significantly dwarfs its statewide economic footprint, and that should be considered before giving ranchers outsized political influence.ย (WyoFile)
๐ข๏ธHYDROCARBON HOEDOWN๐
A pair of peer-reviewed studiesย link Permian Basin oil and gas operations to radioactive plumes and high ozone pollutionย in Loving, New Mexico, and other nearby communities, potentially increasing lung cancer and other health risks.ย (Capital & Main)
The Bureau of Land Management and Southern Ute Indian Tribe launch a planning process toย guide and analyze oil and gas developmentย on 110,000 acres of tribal trust land within the tribeโs land in southwestern Colorado.ย (news release)
โ๏ธ WACKY WEATHER WATCHโก๏ธ
Aย massive sinkhole emerges in actor Nicolas Cageโs oceanfront houseโs drivewayin Malibu, prompting city officials to declare and emergency, evacuate nearby homes, and shut off gas service in the gated community. Officials worry the situation could be worsened by forecasted high tides and rain and long-term weather disturbances resulting from the coming super El Niรฑo.ย (Los Angeles Times)
๐ REGULATORY CAPTURE CHRONICLES ๐ฆ
Radical right-wing U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) and fellow House Republicansย launch an investigation of nineteen conservation groups, accusing the entities of profiting at the expense of taxpayers via statutory fee-shifting provisions, which can reimburse the organizations for legal costs when they win in court.ย (AFP,ย news release)
๐ค DATA CENTERS ๐พ
Pinal County, Arizonaโs board of supervisors vote toย reject Vermalandโs proposed data center complexย following widespread local opposition, even though the developer scaled back the original proposal. The scaled-back proposed facility, spread across 3,300 acres, would have included 11 buildings and a gas-fired power plant.ย (AZ Family)
Tribal nations and Indigenous advocatesย push back on data center developmentin Arizona, Oklahoma, Nevada, and beyond.ย (Washington State Standard)
Oracle seeks proposals for the development ofย 2 gigawatts of new solar, wind, geothermal, or other renewable energy technologiesย to provide โcarbon-free energy matchingโ for its Project Jupiter data center complex under development in southern New Mexico, which is expected to be powered by gas-fired fuel cells. The firm is also offering $1 million to support carbon capture and sequestration at the facility.ย (news release,ย KRQE)
Creekstone Energy, the developer of the massive Delta Gigasite data center in central Utah, looks toย use untested technology to โcreateโ more waterย than it uses by capturing condensation from natural gas combustion at the plant dedicated to powering the facility.ย (Salt Lake Tribune)
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D)ย opposes Attorney General Kris Mayesโ call for a pause on new data centersย to get a better handle on their water and energy use, acknowledging the concerns are valid but saying a statewide moratorium is the wrong approach.ย (AZ Family)
A peer-reviewed study finds that data centers, which typically combine large capital investments with little local labor demand, canย strain a communityโs public infrastructure without generating widespread economic gains.ย (SSRN)
๐ENERGY TRANSITION ๐
Officials and residents of the Coalmine Canyon Chapter of the Navajo Nation push back against 750-megawatt solar-plus-storage installationย in northern Arizona, saying the developers have been less than transparent and the power will not go to local homes, many of which are off the grid.ย (High Country News)
Accelergen Energyย proposes a 125-megawatt solar-plus-storage installationย on about 900 acres east of Cortez, Colorado. (Durango Herald)
A new study findsย small-scale, front-of-the-meter solar-plus-battery installationscould serve about 32% of Californiaโs largest utilitiesโ peak summer electricity demand; analysts say developing this asset would improve reliability and preserve affordability without significant transmission upgrades.ย (Utility Dive)
๐ DATAVIZ OF THE DAY ๐
The stats for August are in and, well, it was a warm one. This August was the hottest August on record for the contiguous United States, as well as for many counties in the Southwest. It was also the hottest month on record globally, barely edging out July 2023 for the dubious honors.
โGame on!โ as a friend texted yesterday afternoon. Credit: John Fleck/InkStain
Click the link to read the article on the InkStain website (John Fleck):
September 2, 2026
At 2 p.m. Monday (Aug 31, 2026) the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority, along with the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District and Audubon Southwest, began releasing a pulse of water from Abiquiu Reservoir on the Rio Chama in Northern New Mexico as an experiment โ what might a several day pulse of water do to help the aridification-starved riverside forests along New Mexicoโs Middle Rio Grande?
Hereโs Bernalillo County Commissioner Barbara Baca, chair of the ABCWUA board:
As I and others have written previously, weโre seeing extraordinary stress on the riverside trees, the ribbons of green that flank the Rio Grande through New Mexicoโs largest city.
The tradeoffs that we talk about every fall semester in the water resources class I teach, tradeoffs among competing and conflicting values, are becoming real. The motivating question Iโve used in my writing on water since my old newspaper days was to ask, as pointedly as I could, โWhen supplies run sort, who actually doesnโt get water?โ
Two answers have become increasingly obvious in recent years along the Middle Rio Grande. What weโve come to call the โaccordionโ of irrigated agriculture is squeezing, as pastures and fields without the super-senior water rights that apply to some of the irrigated lands of New Mexicoโs Middle Rio Grande (or a supplemental well) go dry.
โThe environmentโ is the other.
The question has never been โWhat do we say we value?โ, but rather โWhat do we value enough to give up water in some other place?โ This is about tradeoffs. More water in one place โ an irrigated field or the river channel itself โ necessarily means less water in some other place. My โwhat do we value enough to give up waterโ formulation shifts this from a question of what we say we value to what we actually value enough to give up water to preserve?
Behind the scenes for the last couple of weeks there has been an extraordinary effort underway to scrounge up some water currently in storage upstream for other purposes, and to rapidly put in place the tools to monitor the results. Nobodyโs quite sure how much water will get how far into the bone dry Albuquerque reach of the river, how far downstream the pulse will make it, what the results might be for the riverside forest.
For my whole professional life, long before I shifted from newspapers to writing books, I had a joke when something remarkable happened: โThatโll be great material for my book!โ This is that.
Sunโs almost up, Iโm off to chase the water.
Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. Map credit: By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, drainage basin from GTOPO [1], U.S. stream from the National Atlas [2], all other features from Vector Map., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11218868
The San Luis Valley is searching for ways to use less water without shrinking agriculture. [The Rye Resurgence Project] effort believes rye could help. But turning the grain into part of the valley’s future will require more than convincing farmers to plant it.
“The situation is urgent, and we have to take action to reduce water use,” said Heather Dutton, manager of the San Luis Valley Water Conservancy District…
For years, groundwater has been pumped from the valley’s aquifer faster than nature can replenish it. If that continues, Dutton said, state regulators could eventually require irrigation wells to shut down. One option would be farming fewer acres. But Dutton said that would come at a steep cost.
“It wrecks our economy. It wrecks the fabric of our society of having people employed in agriculture and the heritage of this place,” she said. “That’s why it’s so important that we figure out other alternatives and ways that we can remain in farming, but use less water.”
[…]
The effort, launched by Dutton and Hooper farmer Sarah Jones, is exploring whether rye can help farmers reduce water use without taking more land out of production.
“This is a rye field that’s being used strictly for grazing and green manure,” project manager Morgan Neely said while walking along the perimeter of a lush green field in the San Luis Valley. Cows were cornered off to a section of the field.
Rye requires less than 12 inches of water each year โ roughly one-third to one-half as much as many traditional valley crops, Neely said. Its living roots help hold down topsoil during the valley’s powerful spring winds, and it can be grazed by cattle, incorporated into the soil or harvested for grain.
The Rio Grande County Board of Commissioners is the latest government body to place a moratorium on data centers. The commissioners also adopted a resolution prohibiting any large-scale, or hyperscale data centers in the county.
During Wednesdayโs regular meeting, the commissioners unanimously approved the year-long data center moratorium to allow the countyโs departments to address land use codes. The moratorium is broad as existing language relating to data centers didnโt exist in the countyโs codes before. The separate resolution prohibiting large-scale and hyperscale data centers was approved unanimously.
Commissioners said they are using Colorado Municipal League definitions for large-scale and hyperscale.
This decision comes two weeks after a public hearing and work session that allowed county department heads and commissioners to hear the concerns from the public.
Rio Grande County Administrator Skip Schoen said there has been โconsiderable concernโ in the county about data centers as โa category.โ
More than 30 people spoke at the public hearing with more members of the public writing in their comments.
The public concern in Rio Grande County echoes widespread concern about data center construction in the rest of the San Luis Valley and much of the country.
Alamosa County has yet to signal an intent to place a moratorium on data centers as it is currently going through a process with a company called Strata Inc. that intends to build a small-scale, closed loop-cooled data center in the county.
The city of Alamosa will take up a resolution to place a temporary moratorium on โUtility Scale Battery Energy Storage Systems and Large Load Data Centersโ during Wednesday nightโs regular meeting.
The different sides each presented closing arguments, but it was the reflections of Division 3 Water Court Judge Michael Gonzales that had the courtroom thinking as he brought to a close the water trial dealing with the Subdistrict 1 Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management.
At times it was a bruising trial Gonzales noted Thursday in his closing remarks, as he encouraged all the parties to move on and to not let the four-week trial wear on them and their own personal relationships.
โWe all know that thereโs no way this court can fashion an order or an opinion thatโs going to satisfy everybody. Itโs just not going to happen,โ the judge said. โI mean, it canโt because we know that we have mutually exclusive and competing interests. We know that this petition when it was created recognized that, but we still said โcooperationโ and all those nice things. And in reality, I think we all knew at some point that was going to come to a head. And I think weโre there, but that doesnโt mean we still donโt move forward.โ
San Luis Valley Groundwater
This was the big water trial because it dealt with a plan to recover the unconfined aquifer of the Upper Rio Grande Basin, Gonzales noted. He pointed to testimony of Mosca-area farmer Lyle Nissen as one he enjoyed the most.
โI just loved his testimony. Someone whoโs made some recognition, someone whoโs made some changes, someone who didnโt come in here and complain and just said, โThis is how it is. I recognize it and I move forward.โ And that was great to hear,โ Gonzales said.
He also referenced a term he learned during the course of the trial, โdeep percolation,โ and used it to provide further insight into his thinking.
โI sat in my back yard and I watched the rain come down,โ he said of the weekโs weather. โI watched puddles form and I thought about my second favorite term from this trial, โdeep percolationโ and I said, โAha.โ And then I came back 10 minutes later and that puddle was completely gone. I said, โWow.โ
โI also sat there and I thought about the testimony I think was from this current state engineer when he said that we need rainstorms of biblical proportion to get us where we need to be, and that hit home. And no matter how wonderful that rain was, there needs to be things that happen.โ
The state Division of Water Resources and the Rio Grande Water Conservation District are asking Gonzales to reject the protestorsโ arguments and approve the plan. Without it, they argued, the unconfined aquifer wonโt recover and broad groundwater well curtailment in the subdistrict becomes inevitable.
The cornerstone of the new plan is the โone-for-oneโ feature, which limits groundwater pumping to the amount of natural surface water that flows into the subdistrict over a five-year running average. The intent is to put more water into the unconfined aquifer system than is taken out and one-for-one pumping guarantees that, according to the state and subdistrict.
Gonzales noted โthe monstrosity of an equationโ within the Fourth Amended Plan when he was quizzing Rio Grande Water Conservation District attorney Pete Ampe during his closing remarks.
The one-for-one pumping feature, the equation to determine success, and a new โdepletion feeโ that sets the value of water in the subdistrict at $500 per acre-foot were all argued over, discussed and debated throughout the month-long trial.
Attorney Mirko Kruse, representing his familyโs farming interest, and attorney Andy Jones, representing L Cross Ranch, want Gonzales to refer the plan back to the subdistrict for adjustments theyโre requesting but are otherwise good with the plan.
Two other protesting groups, Northeast Water Users Association and Sustainable Water Augmentation Group, want the plan tossed entirely on grounds it isnโt legal; they asked Gonzales to order the subdistrict to only make changes to the existing third plan of water management.
Gonzales told all the attorneys to address Rule 8.7 of the state groundwater rules governing the Upper Rio Grande Basin. That rule determines how โproportional responsibility for maintaining a sustainable water supply is divided among all the well users within the Response Area.โ
It gets to one of the key arguments made by SWAG and its belief that groundwater irrigators like their clients are being illegally targeted and asked to share a disproportionate share of the burden in the unconfined aquifer recovery efforts.
Gonzales provided a timeline that leads to this Thanksgiving for when all the case documents and filings will be completed and he can begin his deliberations.
โI guess if thereโs one message that we all need to take to heart is that we need to change the things weโve been doing,โ Gonzales said in completing his comments. โWe canโt continue down the path weโve been because if we think thatโs the only way we can go, weโre dooming our children, our childrenโs children. And I donโt want to be a part of that time.โ
Little doubt was left following the conclusion of Tuesdayโs [July 21, 2026] water court session that the Subdistrict 1 Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management will ultimately be decided on appeal by the Colorado Supreme Court.
Division 3 Water Court Judge Michael Gonzales said as much as he ruled, following arguments, to allow testimony from former state engineer Kevin Rein, who is expected to testify as a rebuttal witness on Wednesday morning.
Ryan Donovan, attorney for the Northeast Water Users Association and Sustainable Water Augmentation Group which are protesting the subdistrict plan, argued that Rein should not be allowed to testify as a โlay witnessโ to rebut the testimony of SWAG expert witness Ken Knox.
He also told Gonzales that his comments at the conclusion of the court session on Friday, July 17, where the judge made known his interest in hearing from Rein, created the appearance of impropriety which would be grounds for appeal should Gonzales rule against NWUA and SWAG in their bid to have the plan rejected by the water court.
โNow the supporters wish to call the exact witness identified by the court to the stand and are using the courtโs statement as a basis for doing so. This tells me that the supporters would not be calling Mr. Rein, but for those statements. The extent the court relies on Mr. Reinโs testimony to fill the gaps in the stateโs case and Mr. Reinโs testimony serves as a basis for the courtโs ruling, NWUA and SWAG certainly have a colorful issue on appeal because the statements and the proponentโs subsequent action in response to those statements create the appearance of impropriety,โ Donovan said.
In making his ruling that Rein could testify and that Reinโs testimony would be part of the courtโs deliberations, Gonzales told Donovan and Subdistrict 1 attorney Pete Ampe that from his perspective, itโs felt that all sides have been working toward an appeal rather than to convince him.
โPretty much all the evidence Iโve heard for the last three weeks has been cumulative, could be considered a waste of time and confusing. The same argument you just made for the evidence that I potentially could hear from Mr. Rein โฆ Iโve let you guys present as much evidence as possible. I think maybe I have sustained two objections the entirety of the trial so that all the evidence comes in so the court has a basis to make what I would call a very โunenviable decisionโ to quote language used by others and to be able to rely on enough information, sufficient information.
โIโve let it all come in. I havenโt stopped, really, anybody from presenting any evidence during the course of these proceedings. Quite frankly, I will tell you from my perspectiveโฆitโs felt like no one really has been concerned as to what decision this court is going to make because youโve been setting up an appeal from the very beginning on both sides, on all sides.Thatโs what itโs felt like,โ Gonzales said.
Earlier in the day, Jake Burris, president of the Subdistrict 1 Board of Managers, and Subdistrict 1 farmer Lyle Nissen testified in support of the Fourth Amended Plan as rebuttal witnesses to testimony from farmers SWAG put on the witness stand.
Nissen walked the court through all the ways he has retooled his farming operation in light of the declining unconfined aquifer.
โIt is a different day, a different time. Weโve got to have rules. We have to have parameters. We have to get to the point where weโre sustainable,โ Nissen told the court.
The water trial resumes Wednesday [July 22, 2026], with final arguments coming as early as Thursday.
The Colorado Division 3 water trial that virtually every farmer and rancher who operates in the Upper Rio Grande Basin is paying attention to is on track to wrap up this week, with former State Engineer Kevin Rein scheduled to testify before final arguments are made, Judge Michael Gonzales signaled Monday.
San Luis Valley Groundwater
The trial in Alamosa water court deals with the Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management for Subdistrict 1 of the Rio Grande Water Conservation District, which outlines a new approach to the aquifer recovery by limiting the subdistrictโs groundwater withdrawals to the amount of surface water that naturally comes into the lands annually. It is the subdistrict with the largest cash crop receipts in the Valleyโs growing fields, the subdistrict with the largest volume of groundwater pumping, and the subdistrict under orders from the state to recover the basinโs shallow unconfined aquifer.
The new plan, approved by Rein before he retired as state engineer in 2023, has been dissected by farming operations protesting the plan in water court by arguing groundwater irrigators will be driven out of business because of the planโs limits on groundwater pumping and a hefty $500 per-acre-foot pumping fee.
โIt will be a hard nut to crack,โ Dee Greeman, who works the L Cross Ranch, testified Monday.
L Cross is among the operations protesting the plan. Given the multi-decade drought conditions, the overpumping fee and the fact L Cross would no longer be allowed under the new plan to offset its pumping with its own surface water as credits to its groundwater withdrawals, the value of the ranch would be affected long term, Greeman told the court.
โItโs a gamestopper,โ he said, if wells canโt pump because it is from its groundwater pumping that L Cross finds profit in producing hay.
Greemanโs testimony on Monday wrapped up presentations by the different protestors to the plan. The state Division of Water Resources, which is defending the plan, will bring back witnesses to rebut different testimony and key to it all will be Rein.
It was the testimony of former state Division of Water Resources engineer Ken Knox at the conclusion of week 3 of the trial that prompted Gonzales to tell the state that it is only common sense for Rein to testify. Knox trashed Reinโs review, saying it didnโt take all the proper steps and didnโt include all the critical information for a state engineer to conduct a review of a water management plan.
Following a motion Monday by Preston Hartman, the state assistant attorney general defending the Fourth Amended Plan in water court, to dismiss the protestors case, Gonzales ruled that the protestors have provided sufficient evidence to keep going and scheduled closing arguments for the end of week after Rein testifies on Wednesday.
Once the final arguments are made, Gonzales will set a timeline for his review and decision.
โThis is not something we want to push out too far,โ the judge said at the conclusion of Mondayโs session.
Map of the Rio Grande watershed. Graphic credit: WikiMedia
Colorado Division 3 Water Court Judge Michael Gonzales said from the bench Friday that he wants to hear from former State Engineer Kevin Rein and without his testimony it will be โvery hard for this courtโ and its decision on whether to allow the Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management in Subdistrict 1 to go into effect.
And thatโs how Week 3 of the most important water trial in the past 25 years affecting the Upper Rio Grande Basin ended in Alamosa water court โ the judge telling the state Division of Water Resources as it defends the plan that he would like to hear from the state engineer who approved the plan.
โWithout hearing from Mr. Rein, itโs a concern,โ Gonzales said.
Earlier during Fridayโs afternoon session, he cautioned attorneys on their tone and their questioning of witnesses in a week when emotions inside the courtroom ran high.
โLetโs everybody cool their jets,โ the judge said before he added an extra 10 minutes to the afternoon courtroom break.
The week opened with State Engineer Jason Ullman telling Gonzales that without the Fourth Amended Plan in action, Subdistrict 1 faces widespread curtailment since it will not meet the โsustainableโ level of the unconfined aquifer by 2031 when the current plan of water management expires.
In 2018 Rein first alerted the Rio Grande Water Conservation District that broad curtailment could be on the table given the lack of progress in restoring the unconfined aquifer. It was then the subdistrict began working on a fourth amendment to its water management plan, which was ultimately adopted by the Subdistrict 1 board and then the Rio Grande Water Conservation District before Rein gave his sign off.
Ullman, who succeeded Rein as state engineer, told the court as he wrapped up his testimony that in his view the Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management, which features a one-for-one pumping mechanism, is the โmost reasonable I can think of that would be likely to cause the aquifer to increase in level.โ
The one-for-one features means the subdistrict would offset its groundwater withdrawals by returning an acre-foot of water for every acre-foot pumped during the irrigation season. The new plan also contains an overpumping fee of $500 per acre-foot which groundwater irrigators would pay if they cannot offset their groundwater withdrawals with their own surface water or surface water credits.
โLike I said, I understand that that decision has consequences, but thereโs pretty significant consequences to doing something. And at some point as the policy decision makers, we have to make a decision to do something to meet these goals the General Assembly has set out. And I feel like thatโs what weโve done here. The consequences of doing nothing are much more drastic and draconian than the consequences of this plan,โ Ullman told the court.
It was Reinโs review and sign off on the Fourth Amended Plan that has come under scrutiny by opponents to the plan. Rein retired at the end of 2023 after approving the plan and conducted thisย exit interviewย with Alamosa Citizen.ย During the conversation for an episode of The Valley Pod, he was reluctant to dive into the details of the plan because it was headed to water court and Judge Gonzales for a legal review.
โWithout saying too much about that and the groundwater management plan for the subdistrict, from my perspective as a state engineer, thereโs one critical aspect of that for both cases and that is the sustainability of the unconfined aquifer. As we know, thatโs a difficult component of groundwater management in the Valley because we have a statutorily required sustainability objective. And that has found its way into the rules and into the groundwater management plan for the subdistrict,โ he said at the time.
He added that under the existing plan of water management for Subdistrict 1, โitโs going to be very difficult to meet that sustainability objective โฆ And I know that the subdistrict has worked hard toward an alternative in this current plan that I approved and is before the court, and the way that plays out is going to be so important to the irrigators in the Valley.โ
Ken Knox, a former employee of state Division of Water Resources who at one point served as acting state engineer for approximately 18 months, criticized Rein during his testimony Friday for not conducting a thorough review and that the plan in sections was โdevoid of necessary informationโ to approve the plan by the state engineer.
Reinโs review was a โdramatic step backwards for professionalism of agency standards,โ Knox told the court. He was the final expert witness for the Northeast Water Users Association and Sustainable Water Augmentation Group, who are asking Gonzales to throw the plan out on legal grounds.
Reinโs review was a โdramatic step backwards for professionalism of agency standards,โ Knox told the court. He was the final expert witness for the Northeast Water Users Association and Sustainable Water Augmentation Group, who are asking Gonzales to throw the plan out on legal grounds.
The farmers opposing the plan are trying to thread a few legal arguments to persuade Judge Gonzales to reject the plan. Their contention is the Northeast Water Users Association and Sustainable Water Augmentation Group are being asked to bear a disproportionate share of the burden in the aquifer recovery efforts because they are groundwater irrigators. They contend Rein didnโt conduct a full legal review of the sustainability and proportionality rules contained in state statutes governing recovery of the unconfined aquifer and the $500 fee makes the plan beyond the economic means of all the irrigators who hold water rights in the subdistrict.
โMy land would have no value,โ groundwater farmer Asier Artaechevarria testified, acknowledging that his operations rely 100 percent on groundwater withdrawals.
Ernie Myers, another farmer opposing the plan and who served on the Subdistrict 1 board for a several years, said it was after 2002, when the Upper Rio Grande Basin first experienced historic low flows from a lack of snow runoff, that he first began to feel targeted as a groundwater irrigator and had the feeling that surface water farmers were trying to put him out of business.
โI was pumping their water. I had no right to pump their water. I had a few farmers telling me, โIโm third, fourth generation. Youโre a newcomer. You came in โ73 with your father. You have no right to do what youโre doing,โโ Myers testified.
โAnd were there actually people saying that they intended to put you out of business?โ a SWAG attorney asked.
โYes, yes,โ testified Myers.
Myers was the first to testify on behalf of SWAG and the Northeast Water Users Association. Knox was their final witness, and it was after his testimony that Gonzales made his interest in Rein testifying known.
โCommon sense means a great deal to me,โ the judge said.
Common sense tells the judge he should hear from the person who approved the plan heโs being asked to give legal approval to.
The trial resumes Monday with the L Cross Ranch, another legal opponent to the plan, making its arguments before Gonzales.
Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. Map credit: By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, drainage basin from GTOPO [1], U.S. stream from the National Atlas [2], all other features from Vector Map., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11218868
Retired farmer Ernie Myers spoke Tuesday to the threats and hostilities he faced as a groundwater irrigator and how he felt like a โwhipping boyโ for surface water farmers who complained โthat I was pumping their water.โ
Myers was the first to testify in protest of the Subdistrict 1 Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management as part of the Northeast Water Users Association and Sustainable Water Augmentation Group opposition to the plan.
He served on the Subdistrict 1 board of managers from 2012 to 2016 and told Division 3 Water Court Judge Michael Gonzales that โI was exhausted,โ when he stepped down. โThey beat me up mentally and financially.โ
Myers and his family, along with Asier Artaechevarria, are asking Gonzales to reject the plan, which is designed to recover the unconfined aquifer through a one-for-one pumping mechanism โ for every acre-foot of water pumped, an acre-foot of water must be returned to the aquifer โ that limits pumping to the amount of natural surface water that comes into the subdistrict.
Groundwater irrigators with little or no natural surface water coming into their fields will have to offset their pumping either by purchasing surface water credits or paying a $500 per acre-foot fee, which Myers and Artaechevarria told the judge would put them out of business.
The plan has been approved by the Subdistrict 1 board of managers, the Rio Grande Water Conservation District board of directors, and the state engineer with the Colorado Division of Water Resources.
Artaechevarria told the court that he didnโt think enough had been done under the current plan of water management to try to make it work. Both Artaechevarria and Myers said they were willing to retire more acreage under the current plan and that the $500 acre-foot fee is beyond the economic means of groundwater irrigators.
โMy land would have no value,โ Artaechevarria testified, because he wouldnโt be able to market it for sale and wouldnโt be able to pay the mortgage as a result.
โYou can see the issue there,โ he told the court.
Myers said it was after 2002, when the Upper Rio Grande Basin first experienced historic low flows from a lack of snow runoff, that he first began to feel targeted as a groundwater irrigator and had the feeling that surface water farmers were trying to put him out of business.
โI was pumping their water. I had no right to pump their water. I had a few farmers telling me, โIโm third, fourth generation. Youโre a newcomer. You came in โ73 with your father. You have no right to do what youโre doing.โโ
โAnd were there actually people saying that they intended to put you out of business?โ SWAGโs attorney asked.
โYes, yes,โ testified Myers.
The Division 3 water trial is in its third week at the Alamosa Judicial Center.
Rumors of data centers have local government agencies in the San Luis Valley preparing for the inevitable โ an application for a data center.
Costilla County and the town of South Fork are the latest local governments to place moratoriums on artificial intelligence data centers. Though no applications or projects are being proposed, local governments want to give themselves time to create land use codes to address data centers.
A packed room and a packed Zoom at the Costilla County Planning Commission meeting Wednesday morning saw tensions high as the public continues to express opposition to data centers. The commission approved a year-long moratorium. The moratorium will now go to county commissioners for approval.
The town of South Forkโs planning and zoning board is poised to do the same thing during a public hearing Wednesday nightโs planning and zoning commission meeting as the town does not have specific zoning regulations that address data centers. The board will use the public hearing for feedback as members begin their work over the next year to devise specific codes.
At Wednesday morningโs Costilla County meeting, planning commissioner Joseph Quintana dispelled rumors and reassured the public that a data center application has not been submitted to the county and that โnobodyโs approved anything.โ
He said that when the planning commission was first formed the commission came up with a mission plan with a set of goals that were aimed at protecting the environment and the way of life.
โA data center is the antithesis, the complete opposite of what we would want in this community,โ he said.
He went on to say, โOur job here is to follow that mission that was established 30 years ago with public comment. So I just want to make sure everybody understands, nobodyโs approved a data center that Iโm aware of. Nobodyโs even applied for a data center here. Thereโs nobody thatโs asked to build one or tried to get a permit or anything like that.โ
In June, the Costilla County Commissioners asked the planning commission to address data centers โand get ahead before a problem develops,โ Quintana said.
Commissioner Frank Vigil said they wanted the year to create a โthoughtfulโ ordinance that โreflects the feelings of the general public.โ
โOur code doesnโt even have the two words โdata centerโ in it anywhere at all,โ said county attorney Carle Turnetzer-Decker. โWe were just concerned, I think, the board of county commissioners and the commission here, that if someone did approach us we have absolutely no way to handle it, restrict it, regulate it, do any of that.โ
South Fork made a public statement on Tuesday that said, โTo dispel rumors that are circulating within the community. The Town instituted a moratorium on Data Centers within the Town of South Fork last month which will last one year. The Town has not had any companies approach the town about data centers. We are simply trying to get ahead of any that may approach the Town. Obviously, there are concerns with them and rest assured your Board of Trustees share your concerns. Please come share your thoughts so we know how best to represent the community in making policy on this.โ
Saguache County was the first local government in the Valley to place a moratorium on data centers while it figures out how its land use codes would address any data center application.
Earlier in June, the Rio Grande Basin Roundtable heard from Lindsay Rogers of Western Resources Advocates, who noted how rural markets are becoming targets for data center applications because of the assumption of โless red tape.โ
Western Resources Advocates, Rogers said, has a particular interest working in the San Luis Valley as part of a grant process for local policy decision-making around large water users.
โOne concern that we have which weโve seen playing out in other states in our region, is that developers may target rural communities where they feel there may be less red tape to developing these data centers. Our communities may not have the time or resources needed to ensure the proposal fits within their own goals and their own resource availability. So we think itโs really important to think about these policy options proactively before developers come to town instead of responding to them once theyโve arrived.โ
Solar panels San Luis Valley. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots
Richard Hubler, planning director for Alamosa County, said at the roundtable, โThereโs a very real possibility, as we move forward, that because of our fiber networks here and our broadband capacity, our cheap land and what may end up being a glut of solar production that we could be a target in the Valley for somebody who says, โHey, thereโs more power than the Valley could use there.
โI could take a circle next to that 600 megawatt project and use the other 400 megawatts they may have.โ And we donโt know how to handle that now as a county or as a Valley. I think that this is timely because we really do want to get ahead of it before we have to deal with an application.โ
In May, SLV Rural Electric Cooperative CEO Eric Eriksen said the Valley has underutilized energy capacity and that โrural data centersโ are the โmost relevant for us.โ Rural data centers are described as smaller, more efficient facilities that are often housed within buildings no larger than small commercial buildings and operate anywhere from 50 kilowatts up to 50 megawatts.
These centers commonly use air-cooling or closed-loop refrigeration instead of consuming water.
In May, SLV Rural Electric Cooperative CEO Eric Eriksen said the Valley has underutilized energy capacity and that โrural data centersโ are the โmost relevant for us.โ Rural data centers are described as smaller, more efficient facilities that are often housed within buildings no larger than small commercial buildings and operate anywhere from 50 kilowatts up to 50 megawatts.
These centers commonly use air-cooling or closed-loop refrigeration instead of consuming water.
In SLVRECโs position, the agricultureโs energy demand is declining and that company sees โthe underutilized capacityโ as an opportunity โto serve five, 10, 20, 50 megawatts or more of rural data centers.โ
According to SLVREC, there are seven long-haul fiber routes into and out of the Valley, โwith terabytes of unused capacity that is ideal for data centers.โ
Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. Map credit: By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, drainage basin from GTOPO [1], U.S. stream from the National Atlas [2], all other features from Vector Map., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11218868
Some kind of โbiblical floodโ would have to occur over the next few years for the unconfined aquifer of the Upper Rio Grande Basin to recover, given the current downward measurements and the anticipated negative trajectory of the shallow aquiferโs storage area. That according to State Engineer Jason Ullman, whose testimony Friday wrapped up week 2 of the Subdistrict 1 Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management trial underway in Alamosa state Division 3 Water Court.
Ullman followed by telling the water court that without such a historical climate event, the current Subdistrict 1 Plan of Water Management is unlikely to meet its goal of reaching a sustainable aquifer by 2031, or five years from now and 20 years since the plan was first approved.
His option over the next five years without a new plan of water management, he told Division 3 Water Court Judge Michael Gonzales, would be to not approve annual replacement plans, which is the mechanism groundwater well pumpers use for irrigation.
If annual replacement plans donโt get approved, wells cannot pump.
San Luis Valley Groundwater
โI think I would say that itโs nearly impossible outside of some kind of biblical flood,โ he testified of the current state of the unconfined storage area. โAnd even if that was to happen, thereโs a limit to how much water can infiltrate into the aquifer on an annual basis or a monthly basis. So I donโt know that you can infiltrate enough water into the aquifer to reach that level by the 2031 deadline.โ
According to monthly readings by Davis Engineering, the unconfined storage study area is measuring as low as it ever has since measurements by the consultant firm began in 1976, the court heard.
โIn your opinion, will the current planโs method of dry-up be able to achieve aquifer sustainability?โ Rio Grande Water Conservation District lawyer Pete Ampe followed up with Ullman.
โNo,โ the state engineer told the water court. โI think itโs clear that based upon previous testimony that the goal in the previous plan was to reach 40,000 acres of dry-up that wouldโve resulted or estimated to result in 80,000 acre-feet of reduction in use from the aquifer. And I think previous graphs showed that that has occurred, and yet we still see this precipitous decline.
โI mean, I think some folks have talked about how itโs maybe leveled out some, but if you look here at the graph, if I was to plot a longer term or a longer than five-year average, I think you could agree that the trend is downward. Itโs not upward, which is problematic when we have very limited time, five years to reach the sustainable water supply level defined in the current plan.โ
The sustainable measurement definition is a five-year running average of water storage at negative-400,000 to negative-200,000 below surface and toward the 1976 readings.The current measurement, according to court exhibits, is 1.2 million acre-feet below and declining.
The state engineerโs office approved the fourth amended plan in June 20203, and it is the state engineer who would order widespread groundwater well curtailment. Gonzales must approve the new plan for it to move forward and Ullman to take that option off the table.
During testimony throughout week 2 of the subdistrict plan of water management trial, state Division 3 engineer Craig Cotten and state engineer Ullman testified to the limited amount of time left, without court approval of the updated plan, before wells are shut off.
โWe have other impacts because of the lower aquifer supply that are occurring to other water users, to well owners,โ Cotten told the water court. โAs Iโve discussed, the amount of electricity costs that it takes to pump water out from a lower aquifer, the lowered efficiency of getting flood irrigation across a field, the impact to the environment from not having a water table at the near surface and potentially some ponds around. So lots of impacts. And I do think that we do need to recover the aquifer in a reasonable time period.โ
The water trial is moving along speedier than anticipated during pre-trial conferences when Gonzales set the case to be over five weeks. William Schreรผder, who created and maintains the Rio Grande Decision Support System Groundwater Model which is a key exhibit in the case, faced limited cross examination to his testimony, and Clinton Phillips, who maintains the unconfined aquifer storage area study for Davis Engineering and whose monthly storage graph provides key data for the state Division of Water Resources decisions, faced no cross examination.
One attorney, Mirko Kruse who is arguing his familyโs specific concern around ditch decrees but overall supports to new plan, told the judge that in trying to be efficient with the courtโs time he was prepared to make the very specific legal points to his clientโs objections next week, if the judge wanted to hear those early.
The judge declined and said he preferred to hear all the expert witness testimony first.
There is little argument to the problem that the unconfined aquifer storage is declining due to groundwater withdrawals and the warming climate of the era, which is hugely problematic for any natural recovery through high elevation snow melt.
After two weeks, the arguments before Judge Gonzales center around surface and groundwater water rights, recharge decrees, and whether the fourth amended plan was crafted legally and openly and creates an economically fair playing field for all the irrigators in the subdistrict.
โDr. Schreรผder, what in your opinion does this all just come down to?โ came the question from RGWCD attorney Pete Ampe toward the end of Friday.
โWell, your Honor, the basic premise of the fourth plan is that they will do one-for-one (pumping) which means weโre going to put more water into the aquifer than weโre going to take out and itโs common sense that under those conditions the aquifer should recover.โ
The trial moves into week 3 on Monday, July 13, with State Engineer Ullmann still on the witness stand.
Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. Map credit: By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, drainage basin from GTOPO [1], U.S. stream from the National Atlas [2], all other features from Vector Map., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11218868
Attorney: โIn order to evaluate the current state of the aquifer in context, you would need to know how much the aquifer holds, wouldnโt you?โ
Engineer: โI donโt believe soโ
How much water is in the storage area of the unconfined aquifer? That was a question SWAG attorney Brad Grasmick posed to state Division 3 Water Engineer Craig Cotten and left the Alamosa water court hanging on at the conclusion of Wednesdayโs day in water court.
In his first full day of cross examining Cotten, Grasmick covered a variety of territory from surface water credits to the one-to-one pumping feature of the new plan to Cottenโs responsibility to administer the plan. At times he got so deep into the proverbial weeds in grilling Cotten that Gonzales spoke of his own frustration in trying to follow along.
โYouโre losing me on focus,โ Gonzales told Grasmick as he called for a lunch break.
The question Grasmick posed at the end of his nearly six hours of cross examination offered a unique exchange. Grasmick started by saying he hasnโt seen a figure on how much water the unconfined storage area can hold. Itโs been well-established in the testimony of Cotten and HRS hydrologist Matt Seitz that the unconfined aquifer functions as an underground reservoir and was built up initially through early subirrigation practices and then canal diversions.
Storage readings of the unconfined aquifer that go back to 1976 show it responsive to strong spring runoff seasons but now transitioning through the process of aridification to the San Luis Valley floor as it adapts to 25 years of drought and the lack of consistent snow melt.
โNor have I seen how much water is presently in storage in the unconfined aquifer. Do you agree with that?โ Grasmick asked.
Cotten: โWell, we have the Davis Engineering service change in storage, so we know the change in storage from 1976. The total amount of water in storage at the present time, Iโm not aware of that number.โ
Grasmick: โOK. In order to evaluate the current state of the aquifer in context, you would need to know how much the aquifer holds, wouldnโt you?โ
Cotten: โI donโt believe so.โ
Grasmick: โWell, and you would also need to know how much is in the aquifer in order to evaluate this decline in context, correct?โ
Cotten: โNo, I donโt believe so.โ
Grasmick: โWell, as an example, if there was a one million acre-foot decline in storage, thatโs very different if the reservoir holds one and a half million acre-feet than if it holds say four million acre-feet, isnโt it?โ
Cotten: โThere again, I donโt believe so if youโre shooting for an actual storage amount, change in storage amount as your goal.โ
In the Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management under consideration, Subdistrict 1 is charged with recovering the unconfined aquifer to a โsustainableโ level of negative-200,000 to negative-400,000 acre-feet of water storage.
Grasmick continued his questioning: โSo you disagree that contextual analysis of data is necessary to ensure that itโs not misinterpreted?โ
Cotten: โI donโt agree that we need to know the total storage or the actual storage right now in developing this plan.โ
The exchange continued for about another three minutes before Grasmick began to shift to another subject and Gonzales intervened.
โI apologize. I think itโs been a long day, so I think itโs probably a good place to stop,โ the judge said.
The water trial on the Subdistrict 1 Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management resumes Thursday [July 9. 2026].
The Colorado State Engineerโs office opened its defense this week of Subdistrict 1โs approved Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management with a history lesson on the origins of the San Luis Valley and the development of irrigated agriculture over the past 174 years when the first water right was issued to the San Luis Peopleโs Ditch.
Featured in the state engineerโs defense was testimony by Matt Seitz of HRS Water Consultants, who took the state Division 3 Water Court through ancient history and into the era of early irrigation and storage practices of farmers in the Valley.
โYeah, so we covered 25 million years pretty quickly, see how long the rest of it takes here,โ he said from the witness stand Tuesday. Seitz stayed on the witness stand for the better part of the week, working to bolster to the state engineerโs defense of the Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management and then under cross-examination from a Sustainable Water Augmentation Group attorney, who worked to show faults in Seitzโ testimony and undermine the case of the state engineer in the eyes of Division 3 Water Court judge Michael Gonzales.
It is Gonzales who will decide this case. He will take in all the testimony around the various takes on the Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management to rule on whether the plan will be implemented.
Plan of Water Management Equation
The subdistrict itself is charged with recovering the shallow unconfined aquifer of the Upper Rio Grande Basin and its Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management is the latest attempt to do so. The complexity of the basinโs hydrology has been an early theme.
โI think thereโs been a lot of great research over the years,โ Seitz said in speaking to the stateโs modeling of groundwater in the Upper Rio Grande Basin and other studies on the Valleyโs hydrology. โSo I think weโve made some good progress, but thereโs a lot of complexity. Again, Iโve been saying that word a lot, but there certainly is and I think weโre on our way, but itโs never going to be fully understood.โ
Week 1 of the trial ended with Craig Cotten taking the witness stand. He is witness number three for the state engineerโs defense of the plan, following Cleave Simpson, the general manager of the Rio Grande Water Conservation District who was the lead witness, and then Seitz, the hydrologist consultant who endured four days on the witness stand.
โWonderful way to start the Fourth of July weekend,โ quipped Gonzales as Cotten, the state water division engineer for the San Luis Valley area, stepped into the witness box at 1:50 p.m. on Thursday. He spent the initial two hours testifying to his background and his credentials before Gonzales broke for the Fourth of July weekend.
Cotten is the enforcer of the stateโs groundwater management rules in the San Luis Valley. His testimony will reignite the trial when it resumes on Monday for week two of the water trial.
Map of the Rio Grande watershed. Graphic credit: WikiMedia
Last month, U.S. Agriculture Department Undersecretary Michael Boren issued a memo, with a preamble by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, to Forest Service employees directing them on โadvancing grazing on Forest Serviceโ lands. Itโs a curious, sometimes alarming memo. And, as is customary for the Trump administration, its authors are a bit confused about history.
While most public lands grazing occurs on Bureau of Land Management land, the memo reminds us that national forests also host more than 2 million cattle, sheep, and horses and burros. The current administration desperately wants more livestock on Americaโs forests, although itโs not clear why.
The memo directs the agencyโs staff to streamline the permitting process, to treat public lands1ย ranchers with deference and respect, and to bring more โflexibilityโ to prairie dog โmanagement,โ which I assume means they want more efficient ways to kill the animals. It also guides line officers to offer up unallocated forage โto the maximum extent possibleโ and work to โsolicit interest/applications from the eligible ranching communityโ to occupy vacant and closed grazing allotments. The goal? To add 500,000 head months2ย of cattle and other livestock to national forest lands over the next two years, purportedly in part to โmaintain the fabric of rural America.โ
The fabric of rural America very well may be frayed, but throwing a bunch of half-ton methane dispensers onto drought-addled national forests to gobble up what grass and wildflowers remain in high-country meadows, trample stream banks, sully trout habitat, and make a mess out of trails, isnโt going to repair it.
Boren acknowledges that grazing on national forests has declined over the last 60 years in part due to โchanging rangeland conditionsโ and โcatastrophic wildfire and variable moisture levels.โ But he seems oblivious to the fact that in most of the West, moisture levels remain at an all time low, and putting livestock on that land would not only lead to some pretty skinny cows, but also would further decimate the drought-stressed soils and vegetation.
Ranchers nationwide are actually thinning their herds due to drought and rising overhead costs, and cattle numbers are at record lows this year despite high beef prices. That reduces the chances that Boren will actually have many takers for the vacant allotments.
Still, itโs concerning. With the top brass pressuring the entire agency to pull out all of the stops to get more livestock on the forests, itโs not hard to imagine a district ranger succumbing and permitting a vacant allotment โ even one that a conservation organization bought out from a willing rancher to help wildlife or reduce conflicts.
Rollins, meanwhile, seems confused about the origins of the agency she oversees. She writes:
But she doesnโt seem to consider what Congress was trying to โprotectโ the forests from, because in the next paragraph she writes: โFrom those early beginnings, grazing has been an integral part of our nationโs national forests โฆโ Yeah, not quite. Letโs step back a bit, shall we?
During the early and mid-1800s, the United States stole, conquered, purchased, or acquired by treaty hundreds of millions of acres of land in the West and declared it the โpublic domain.โ The government then went about โdisposingโ of the land, giving it away or selling it for virtually nothing via the Homestead Act, the General Mining Act, the Pacific Railway Act, the Desert Land Act, and so forth. By the end of the 1880s, huge tracts of public land had been handed over to the railroads, to mining interests, to states, and to homesteaders, yet across the West hundreds of millions of acres still remained in the public domain, and nearly all of those lands were open to unrestricted grazing, timber-cutting, and the devastation that came with them.
Gifford Pinchot would later describe the period like this:
Albert Potter, the USFSโs first chief of grazing, called the 1880s the era of โspoilation,โ writing:
Unfettered livestock grazing wasnโt just diminishing the forage, but also wrecking watersheds. In southeastern Utah, the big livestock companies, notably the New Mexico and Kansas Land and Cattle Company, ran thousands of cattle and sheep across the once abundant grasslands on the slopes of the Abajo and La Sal Mountains, reducing them to denuded, dusty, gullied, flash-flood-prone wastelands. At one point, allegedly out of spite, the Carlisle livestock concern turned out thousands of sheep on the upper branches of Montezuma Creek, Monticelloโs source for drinking water. Bacteria from the sheep feces contaminated the water, leading to a typhoid outbreak in Monticello that killed eleven people.
In hopes of mitigating the wreckage, in 1891 Congress passed the Forest Reserve Act, giving the president the authority to withdraw areas from the public domain3ย as forest reserves, to be overseen by the Interior Department. Six years later Congress passed the Forest Management or Organic Administrative Act, which gave the previous law some teeth by providing a framework for managing the reserves. In 1905 President Theodore Roosevelt transferred management of the reserves to the Department of Agriculture and named the agency the Forest Service, appointing Gifford Pinchot as his chief forester.
Together, Pinchot and Roosevelt represented a major shift in the way the government managed and society perceived and treated the public lands. Roosevelt set aside some of the nationโs most cherished landmarks as national monuments. Pinchot believed that humans should utilize the forests and grasslands but that they should do so in a more sustainable manner so as to save some of the timber and forage for future generations. This conservationist ethos came to be known as Pinchotism, a term spit derogatorily by western politicians who were beholden to the extractive industries, such as Republican senator Weldon Heyburn from Idaho. Employing the same rhetoric that would later be used by the Sagebrush Rebels, Heyburn derided the forest reserve laws, suggesting that they amounted to theft of the โpeopleโs forests.โ
The question of livestock grazing on the forest lands was a contentious one for years. Under the Forest Reserve Act, grazing was effectively banned on the new reserves. After the Organic Act passed, the General Land Office began permitting grazing by cattle and horses, but not sheep โ which were generally seen as far more destructive4โ on the condition that it didnโt harm the forests. Eventually, Pinchot succumbed to the sheep industry lobby and grudgingly allowed grazing on some forests, causing a schism between him and John Muir, who was strongly opposed to sheep in forests.
Over the ensuing years, the Forest Service developed a grazing policy, permitting system, and set fees โ very low ones โ based on the number of animals, much to livestock operatorsโ dismay. This was in stark contrast to the lands in the public domain, where grazing remained a free-for-all until Congress passed the Taylor Grazing Act in 1934.
These minimal restraints, however, were not enough to stop the destruction. In the years following World War I, Forest Service officials found that grazing was still wreaking havoc on vegetation and spawning more erosion. Yet every time they tried to reduce the number of livestock on the land, they were hit with legal challenges, lobbying campaigns, and political pressure.
Ultimately the backlash to Pinchotism elevated Warren G. Harding, a friend to the industries that wanted free rein over the public lands, to the presidency. Harding chose Albert Bacon Fall to be his interior secretary, who immediately went about rolling back regulations and doing his best to erase the legacy left by Pinchot and Roosevelt, including opening up the public domain and Indian land to coal mining and oil and gas drilling. While Trump and his minions like to compare themselves to Teddy Roosevelt, in reality they much more closely resemble Harding and Fall.
A number of ferocious wildfires continue to rage across the Interior West. One of the largest is the Babylon Fire in Bears Ears National Monument, which had grown to over 81,000 acres as of Thursday night. Itโs also on Forest Service land and is burning through some large, active grazing allotments, including the Babylon, Gooseberry, Twin Springs, and Cottonwood, and looks like itโs making its way onto some BLM allotments as well.
The Gold Mountain Fire near Ouray, Colorado, had grown to about 21,000 acres, with the Ferris Fire near Dove Creek reaching nearly 29,000 acres. Fire weather is expected to continue through the weekend.
๐บ๏ธ Messing with Maps ๐งญ
Note: On the occasion of Americaโs 250th birthday, Iโm rerunning this piece from a couple of years ago on the July 1776 Escalante-Dominguez expedition that occurred even as the American Revolution was unfolding far to the east.
Don Bernardo Miera y Pachecoโs map, drawn following the 1776 Escalante-Dominguez expedition via The Land Desk
Iโve been fascinated by maps of all sorts for as long as I remember. Don Bernardo Miera y Pachecoโs map, drawn following the 1776 Escalante-Dominguez expedition, has intrigued me for nearly as long. And the more I look at old maps of the region, the more interesting this one becomes, in part because itโs far more accurate, especially in its depictions of the Four Corners Country, than maps made a century later by U.S. surveyors.
In July of 1776, Atanasio Dominguez and Silvestre Vรฉlez de Escalante, a couple of Franciscan priests, headed out with a motley crew from Santa Fe in search of a route to California. Instead, they ended up going up what is now Coloradoโs Western Slope and through the heart of Ute territory, across to the Great Salt Lake, dropping down through western Utah, and finally looping โ somewhat erratically โ back to Santa Fe. But if they didnโt find California, they did leave behind relatively detailed journals and maps that give us insight into what the region looked like prior to the Euro-American invasion, and into early European colonistsโ perception of the region.
The party set out from the Pueblo of Santa Rosa de Abiquiu, on the first day of August, effectively leaving the Spanish Empire. The country beyond was the domain of the Weenuchiu, Tabeguache, Caputa, and Mouache bands of Ute. Not wanting to provoke the Ute people any more than necessary โ they had made that mistake before โ the Spanish Crown forbade settlers from wandering into the territory of or trading with the Utes.
Still, the path they followed was well-established. Juan Rivera had travelled it a decade earlier, and he had followed well-established routes through a land that had been inhabited for millennia, and that had been intimately mapped in the collective consciousness of oral histories. Rivera probably wasnโt even the first Spaniard to tread these paths; mavericks defied the travel and trade ban to acquire deerskins or to try their luck in the mineralized slopes of the high San Juan Mountains. The Spanish mavericks, in turn, were merely following paths already well trodden by Ute, Dinรฉ, Paiute, and Pueblo travelers long before.
So it shouldnโt be much of a surprise that current day routes more or less follow Escalanteโs and Dominguezโs path. From Abiquiu the party traveled northwest, roughly following Hwy. 84 about to Los Ojos/Tierra Amarilla, which they described as:
This sort of assessment of a siteโs suitability for a settlement is common in Escalanteโs journals. Most places he deemed good for a village now have a village on them, from Arboles to Ignacio to Dolores to Hotchkiss, though none would be established for another century or more after Escalanteโs journey.
They then cut westward, meeting up with the Navajo River near Dulce, which originates in what they called the Sierra de la Grulla, or the Mountains of the Cranes โ now known as the South San Juans. Later they note that the headwaters of the Rio de Los Pinos are in the Sierra de la Plata, indicating that the entirety of what we now think of as the Western San Juans were then called the La Plata Mountains. When they reach the confluence with the San Juan River near Carracas, they write:
They called their camp โNuestra Seรฑora de las Nieves,โ or Our Lady of the Snows, because they could see snow-capped peaks from there. This seems odd given that it was early August and they would have been looking at the south faces of the San Juans, where the snow should have melted months earlier. Maybe 1776 was a cold year, because later, they describe the passage between Durango and Hesperus like this: โthe terrain is very moist, since it rains very frequently because of its proximity to the Sierra; as a result, both in the mountain forest โ which consist of very tall and straight pines, scrub oak, and several kinds of wild fruits โ and in its narrow valleys there are the prettiest of pastures. The climate here is excessively cold even in the months of July and August.โ
On this version of the map, Miera did not include the route of the expedition. But the little circles with crosses indicate places they stopped, camped, or named. Via The Land Desk
They make it to the Big Bend of the Dolores River and then do some bending of their own, deviating from their westward course by 90 degrees for reasons I canโt figure out. Were their guides trying to avoid the rugged Canyon Country of southern Utah? Were they blindly following the path of their predecessor, Rivera? For whatever reason, they ended up heading north, encountering the Dolores River a second time near Cahone and a third time near Slick Rock.
The party tried to follow the Dolores River downstream (north), but was stymied by the narrow, twisty gorge, writing: โThe canyon we named El Laberinto de Miera because of the varied and pleasing scenery of rock cliffs which it has on either side and which, for being so lofty and craggy at the turns, makes the exit seem all the more difficult the farther one advances.โ They turned eastward into the Big Gypsum valley, then toward Naturita and Nucla, before crossing the Uncompahgre Plateau where they found โdeer and roe and other animals breed, and certain chicken fowl the size and shape of the common domestic ones, from which they differ in not having combs. Their flesh is very tasty.โ
They dropped down to what they call the El Rio de San Francisco north of Montrose and that the โYutasโ call Ancapagri โ i.e. Uncompahgre โ or โRed Lakeโ, โbecause they say that near its source there is a spring of red-colored water, hot and ill-tasting.โ
It seems that part of the reason Mieraโs maps somewhat accurately depict areas the party never journeyed to is because they spoke with the Indigenous people who intimately knew the country. This is in sharp contrast to U.S. maps drawn a century later, which depict much of southeastern Utah as a big blank spot, with the San Juan River vanishing into the desert after passing the Four Corners. Miera y Pachecoโs map, meanwhile, accurately shows the stream meeting up with the Colorado in Glen Canyon.
That said, Miera y Pacheco does make some errors. He has the Gunnison River (San Xavier) running into the Dolores River near the present site of Gateway (passing through the Unaweap Gorge, perhaps?), and his maps appear to have the Green River (Rio San Buenaventura) flowing through the Wasatch Range and into Utah Lake.
Mieraโs depiction of the Great Salt Lake and Utah Lake. Via The Land Desk
At Montrose the party again took an odd route, going up the Gunnison River, in a northeasterly direction, rather than following it downstream to the northwest, up and over Sierra del Venado Alazan (Mountain of the Sorrel-Colored Deer), or Grand Mesa, before getting back on course (sort of) and making their way to the Great Salt Lake. It wasnโt until that point, when winter was starting to set in, that they realized maybe they should have taken a different route, and that Monterey, their final destination, was still a long ways off.
From the Great Salt Lake, the expedition went southward, roughly following I-15, before cutting east at St. George and encountering the Colorado River where it passes through the Marble Gorge. As you might imagine, crossing the river and the canyon wasnโt easy. Via The Land Desk
So they went south, all the way down to St. George, before turning back to the east, Santa Fe-bound. This is where it gets interesting, because their guides were not familiar with the country (what we would now call the Arizona strip) they were headed for. And yet, even though their route-finding was sometimes determined by drawing lots, they somehow managed to encounter the Colorado River at one of the few places they could get down to it, just downstream from the Paria River. Crossing the river, itself, wasnโt so easy.
So they built a raft of logs, and โFather Fray Silvestre, accompanied by the servants, tried to cross the river; but although the poles they used to propel it were about five yards long, they did not touch bottom even a short distance from the bank.โ
It was late October by then and, โNot knowing when we would be able to leave this place, and having already eaten up the meat of the first horse, the pine kernels and the other provisions we had bought, we ordered another horse killed.โ Desperate, they hiked up the Paria until they were able to climb up to the plateau, then dropped back down to the Colorado River in Glen Canyon in a place they called San Diego. Finally they found a place where the canyon and river widened โ now inundated by Lake Powell โ and they were able to cross. After climbing out of the canyon: โWe found today many Indian tracks, but saw no one. So many wild sheep flourish here that their tracks look like great herds of domestic sheep. They are smaller than the domestic variety, of the same shape but much swifter.โ
The party finally reached Santa Fe and in the ensuing years Miera y Pacheco created at least two maps of the country they had traveled through.
1 When I use the term โpublic landsโ Iโm referring not only to BLM lands, but also to national forests, national parks and monuments, and national wildlife refuges.
2 Head Month is the U.S. Forest Service term for a cow-calf pair eating public forage for one month. Itโs similar to an Animal Unit Month on BLM land.
3 When land is โwithdrawnโ from the public domain, it simply means that it is no longer available for โdisposal.โ That is, it canโt be privatized via homesteads or mining claims.
4 During a meeting with Colorado stockmen in 1905 to discuss grazing fees, Teddy Roosevelt reportedly pounded the arm of his chair with his fist and declared: โGentlemen, sheep are destructive.โ
Rio Grande Water Conservation District General Manager Cleave Simpson outside the courtroom as the water trial over the Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management for Subdistrict 1 opened Monday at the Alamosa County Judicial Center. Credit: The Citizen
Rio Grande Water Conservation District General Manager Cleave Simpson testified itโs not a foregone conclusion that groundwater irrigators would pay the $500 per acre-foot fee for overpumping but have other options under the Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management for Subdistrict 1.
Simpson was the first to take the witness stand Monday in a state water trial that will determine if the Subdistrict 1 plan will go into effect. The plan, which calls for Subdistrict 1โs groundwater withdrawals not to exceed the amount of natural surface water that comes into the Upper Rio Grande Basin, has been approved by the state engineer and now is being tested in state water court.
Opponents to the plan argue the state engineerโs review was not thorough, did not follow Colorado water law and should not be allowed to go into effect. Other opponents have more nuanced arguments around surface water credits.
The linchpin to the subdistrictโs Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management is the overpumping fee, which some farmers and ranchers argue will put them out of business. Simpson testified that groundwater irrigators can purchase surface water credits from neighboring operations or submit their own plan of augmentation for approval from the state without incurring the subdistrictโs overpumping fee.
A 2018 letter sent by then-State Engineer Kevin Rein that warned of mass groundwater curtailment without progress on the unconfined aquifer โcreated a heightened sense of urgency,โ within the Rio Grande Water Conservation District and Subdistrict 1, Simpson testified.
The federal governmentโs voluntary Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program became one program the water conservation district shifted into to reduce the amount of productive acres farmed. A Fourth Plan of Water Management for Subdistrict 1 became another, Simpson said.
The water trial comes three and a half years after the subdistrict water management plan was adopted by Simpsonโs Rio Grande Water Conservation District board. The effort is tied to recovering the unconfined aquifer of the Upper Rio Grande Basin and restoring it to sustainable levels.
A group of subdistrict irrigators organized under the Northeast Water Users Association and Sustainable Water Augmentation Group are opposing the plan. They irrigate on 11,000 acres in the Center area. Also in opposition are owners of the L Cross Ranch, who rely on La Garita Creek and Carnero Creek as water sources in addition to their own groundwater pumping.
The trial will continue through July.
Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. Map credit: By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, drainage basin from GTOPO [1], U.S. stream from the National Atlas [2], all other features from Vector Map., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11218868
The most significant water trial the San Luis Valley has ever seen opens this Monday morning in Courtroom A of the Alamosa County Judicial Center. At stake is the Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management for Subdistrict 1 of the Rio Grande Water Conservation District, which calls for a dramatic shift designed to match the amount of groundwater pumping to the amount of natural surface coming into the subdistrict.
Producers in Subdistrict 1 are under pressure to recover the unconfined aquifer of the Upper Rio Grande Basin, but so far the subdistrict has made little to no progress in creating a sustainable aquifer. The trial is scheduled for five weeks before Colorado Water Court Division 3 Judge Michael Gonzales.
The San Luis Valleyโs highly-anticipated district water court case โ the water trial of this century if you will โ was originally scheduled to last five weeks beginning in January. It was pushed back six months to this summer due to the departure of a key witness in the fallout from a series of contentious October emails.
The Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management by Subdistrict 1 in the Rio Grande Water Conservation District has lived a precarious life without ever being implemented, going back to 2022 when it was originally crafted by subdistrict managers and January 2023 when it was adopted by Rio Grande Water Conservation District board.
Later came approval by the state engineer, and then after objections were filed against the new amended plan, Colorado Water Court Division 3 Judge Michael Gonzales set a trial date to commence on Jan. 5, 2026, and to last five weeks.
That is, until the week before Thanksgiving when Gonzales scrapped the January date in favor of June 29, 2026, some four years after the plan was first approved at the subdistrict level and the unconfined aquifer still in a historic decline. The judge did so after a series of emails sent by a key expert witness for the main objectors to the plan surfaced.
The effect is that a new plan to recover the Rio Grandeโs unconfined aquifer, which has been approved at the local and state levels but still requires sign-off from district water court, remains in limbo.
Following filings by the Northeast Water Users Association and Sustainable Water Augmentation Group requesting a six-month continuance to the start of the trial, and the Rio Grande Water Conservation District and state Division of Water Resources objecting to the request, Gonzales ruled the two main objectors challenging the new aquifer recovery plan had good reason to ask for a six-month continuance after Taylor Adams, an environmental and water resources engineer for Hydros Consulting in Boulder, resigned from the case due to โpersonal and family circumstances.โ
Adams was set to challenge the Subdistrict 1 water plan on a variety of engineering fronts until a series of emails he sent in October to State Engineer Jason Ullman and Senior Assistant Attorney General Preston Hartmann came to light. In one email, he tells Ullman, โAlso, GFY.โ In another, he emails that he is โno longer interested in anything other than publicly exploding the rampant corruption at DWR and the AG Office.โ
And in an email sent Sunday, Oct. 19, to Attorney General Phil Weiser, Adams writes, โWe havenโt met, but I understand that youโre running for governor of Colorado. You should know that if you continue this pursuit without addressing the persistent and laughable perjury that has been carried out in your name by Preston Hatman (sic) and Jason Ullman, you will be the subject of my attention throughout your campaignโฆโ
The Rio Grande Water Conservation District asked Gonzales not to delay the water court proceedings due to the urgency to recover the unconfined aquifer and the lack of โcredible evidence that demonstrates that Mr. Adams is unavailable. Rather, they now assert that he โshould not be pressured into returning to the case at the risk of further harm to his mental health.โโ
โIn any event,โ district water attorneys argued in their objection to a trial delay, โnone of this changes the fact that the unconfined aquifer is still over 1.3 million acre-feet below the water levels measured in 1976, and more than 830,000 acre-feet below the water levels previously determined by this Court and the Colorado Supreme Court to be sustainable.โ
State Engineer Jason Ullman, consultant Taylor Adams, Colorado Water Court Division 3 Judge Michael Gonzales
Subdistrict 1 is home to the San Luis Valleyโs richest crops of potatoes, barley and alfalfa. Without recovery of the shallow aquifer, the state is threatening mass shut down of groundwater pumping wells and requires both a master plan and annual replacement plans to show recovery efforts.
The subdistrictโs proposed Fourth Plan of Water Management is its most drastic effort yet to meet the stateโs orders. The new plan, crafted in 2022 and adopted by the Rio Grande Water Conservation District in January 2023, is designed to โmatch the amount of groundwater pumping to the amount of water coming into the subdistrict.โ
It does this through a 1-to-1 augmentation, meaning for every acre-foot of water used, an acre-foot has to be returned to the unconfined aquifer through recharging ponds. The amended plan relies on covering any groundwater withdrawals with natural surface water or the purchase of surface water credits.
Farmers in the subdistrict have expressed support for the plan, which includes a $500 per acre-foot overpumping fee that farmers would pay if they exceed the amount of natural surface water tied to the property in their farming operations.
Objections are coming from farmers who do not have natural surface water coming into their property and around the steep fee for purchasing surface water credits from a neighboring operation to offset groundwater pumping irrigation. Both proponents and opponents of the plan say the $500 per acre-foot overpumping fee could put farmers who rely on groundwater pumping out of business.
The five-week water trial will sort through these issues in much more granular detail. Any new strategy to recover the Valleyโs ailing aquifer will shift into 2027 at the soonest.
Click the link to read the article on the Associated Press website (Susan Montoya Bryan). Here’s an excerpt:
May 27, 2026
In a briefย orderย Tuesday, the court accepted the recommendation of a special master to move forward withย agreements first proposed last yearย by New Mexico, Texas and Colorado. The settlement calls for reducing groundwater pumping along the dwindling river and retiring water rights from irrigated farmland in southern New Mexico. The states held up the proposal as a promise to restore order to an elaborate system of storing and sharing water between two vast irrigation districts in southern New Mexico and western Texas.ย
โWeโre very excited to be redirecting resources from costly and lengthy litigation to solutions on the ground,โ Hanna Riseley-White, director of the Interstate Stream Commission, said Wednesday…
Those solutions will include everything from long-term fallowing programs and more efficient irrigation infrastructure to developing new sources of water, like tapping brackish supplies or importing water, and improving stormwater management so more runoff can be captured and stored.
Sandhill cranes and some mallard ducks roost on a sandbar of the Rio Grande River at sunset on Jan. 22, 2025 in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Copyright Credit ยฉ WWF-US/Diana Cervantes.
Anna Vargas, of Manassa, Colorado, is a sixth-generation resident of the San Luis Valley who is deeply embedded in local water management initiatives. She hasnโt drunk her own tap water in years out of fear of contamination. Credit: Jacob Spetzler/Inside Climate News
In the San Luis Valley, the ongoing megadrought and a record-low snowpack are draining groundwater and increasing its concentrations of toxic metals. There are few protections for residents drinking from private wells.
Julie Zahringer hears a common refrain at her environmental laboratory in Alamosa, Colorado: A customer has been drinking well water on family land where theyโve lived for years, but recently noticed it has changed. They want to know why.
โAll of a sudden it looks different, tastes different, thereโs odor, thereโs color,โ said Zahringer.
Zahringerโs SDC Laboratory is one of the few testing water in the San Luis Valley, an 8,000-square-mile, high-altitude desert in south-central Colorado. She has tested thousands of wells during more than 30 years in the field.
Residents of the valley, which has large Hispanic populations and a high poverty rate, have been concerned about naturally occurring heavy metals in their water for decades, she said. But in the past five years, the rate of change has accelerated.
โEvery year it just seems like this is the climax of it, and the next year, it gets worse,โ said Zahringer. โThis year, weโre looking at probably the worst as far as water quality.โ
San Luis Valley Groundwater
The San Luis Valley relies on surface water from the Rio Grande and a massive aquifer system, one of the largest in North America, to drive its agricultural economy. But the aquifer is severely overallocated, losing an estimated 1.2 million acre-feet of water between 1976, when tracking began, and 2013โequivalent to more than five times what the city of Denver consumes each year. This year, the aquifer could hit another record low, as Coloradoโs snowpack, which recharges the stateโs aquifers, is at the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1941.
San Luis, CO – MAY 5, 2026: The sun sets over agriculture fields in San Luis, Colorado on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The primary agriculture in the valley are potatoes and livestock. The Rio Grande recharges the aquifer which is the source of water for the entire San Luis Valley, including agriculture, which is the industry which economically sustains the area. The amount of water necessary for large scale agriculture is also the primary reason for the aquiferโs depletion. (Photo by Jacob Spetzler/Special to Inside Climate News)
Manassa, CO – MAY 5, 2026: A water control gate controls flow in an irrigation ditch in Manassa, Colorado on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. (Photo by Jacob Spetzler/Special to Inside Climate News)
Researchers are finding that as groundwater levels drop, the remaining water can contain higher concentrations of carcinogenic heavy metals.
The valleyโs well water users, many of them in historically underserved communities, are increasingly concerned about whatโs in their drinking water. But with little governmental oversight of private wells or resources to help track and manage quality, they have few options to make it safe.
Shifting Chemistry
Anna Vargas, a sixth-generation resident of the San Luis Valley, remembers making snowmen often as a child, and her mother talking about the daily rains during the summer monsoon season. Now, monsoon season barely exists here, Vargas said.
โAs the years have gone by, thereโs less rain, less snowfall. Iโve lived in the valley long enough to see the changes in weather patterns,โ says Vargas, project manager with the SLV Ecosystem Council. โWe depend a lot on snowpack, and we have hardly any this year. Itโs concerning for all of us in the Rio Grande basinโฆThe heavy metals will just become more concentrated.โ
Map of the San Luis Valley
Heavy metals like arsenic, tungsten, uranium, manganese and selenium occur naturally in rocks and soils and come up with groundwater that is pumped to the surface. With drought, Zahringer said, they can become a problem.
โWeโre not seeing a dilution of any of the contaminantsโฆso anything thatโs in the geologic makeup is just really concentrating,โ said Zahringer, whose tests have documented contaminant levels rising in the wells during dry periods.
Alamosa, CO – MAY 5, 2026: Julie Zahringer, owner and laboratory director of the Sangre de Cristo (SDC) Laboratory, poses for a portrait in her office in Alamosa, Colorado on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The SDC Laboratory is the only source of water testing in the San Luis Valley. The company tests water for both private well owners and municipalities as well as water used in agriculture. (Photo by Jacob Spetzler/Special to Inside Climate News)
In addition, as aquifer levels drop during droughtsโand due to overpumpingโits geochemistry shifts, says Kathy James, Ph.D., associate professor with the Colorado School of Public Health. Users reaching deeper into the ground to access the remaining water can draw small amounts of water connected to geothermal sources or underground reservoirs of hot water, which can have high arsenic concentrations, into the drinking supply. Even in small amounts, this can increase arsenic concentrations to dangerous levels. James notes that these relationships are complex and non-linear, however, and additional research is needed.
Zahringerโs estimates mirror these results: Of all the well waters her lab tests in southern Colorado, about 25 percent exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencyโs maximum contaminant level for arsenic in drinking water.
Zahringer said that some customers come to her lab on referrals from their primary care physicians trying to determine the root cause of elevated levels of heavy metals in their bloodstream. Her own well water is high in arsenic, but her filtration system thoroughly treats it before it enters her house.
โIโm in a unique situation where Iโm educated and vigilant, and I have the resources to test and make sure itโs OK,โ said Zahringer. โA lot of my neighbors, I know theyโre just drinking it right out of the ground.โ
Half of the U.S. population relies on groundwater for drinking, irrigation, industry and livestock. Much of it is pumped through public water systems, which must limit contaminants to comply with the federal Safe Drinking Water Act, in addition to state requirements that may be more stringent. But private wells, which are the main source of drinking water for 15 percent of Americans and about a third of San Luis Valley residents, are not regulated or monitored. In effect, about 51 million Americans are responsible for monitoring the safety of their own drinking water.
In the San Luis Valley, residents are asking more questions about how their water is impacting their health, crops and cattle, Vargas said, making it easy for her to recruit some of the more than 800 private well owners involved in Jamesโs study.
โWe filled it up so fast that that just shows how much the community members wanted their wells tested,โ says Vargas.
After a few months of recruiting, the study group was nearly at capacity.
Later, neighbors would stop her at the grocery store to tell her about their results: manganese, arsenic, uranium or other contaminants were often above the EPA thresholds.
Today, many residents in Vargasโs community have turned to bottled water. โThey just donโt know if they can drink the water,โ she said.
โAs those contaminants are increasing, we are going to start to see these rural areas really canโt afford these treatment plants and mitigation for it,โ said Zahringer. โWeโre dealing with a lot of really small communities that are really struggling to pay for their water testing, let alone to build these new plants.โ
San Luis Valley is one of the poorest rural areas of Colorado, with an estimated 21.4 percent poverty rate. Even if well users can access a water test, consistent filtration remains an economic burden.
San Luis, CO – MAY 5, 2026: Water from a natural spring pours out of a pipe in the town of San Luis in the San Luis Valley, Colorado on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. (Photo by Jacob Spetzler/Special to Inside Climate News)
San Luis, CO – MAY 5, 2026: The town of San Luis in the San Luis Valley, Colorado on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. (Photo by Jacob Spetzler/Special to Inside Climate News)
Household reverse osmosis systems can remove up to 99 percent of contaminants, including arsenic. But they are expensiveโoften costing thousands of dollars to install and hundreds more annually to maintainโand can waste up to 80 percent of the water that passes through them. And because the San Luis Valley has moderately to extremely hard water, compounds and metals accumulate much faster on filtration systems, requiring replacement more than twice as frequently as in areas with soft water.
โI come from a rural and impoverished community, and my community members canโt always be changing out these filters for this reverse osmosis filtration system,โ Vargas said.
Researchers at Arizona State University are planning to field test a new type of filter that removes a range of heavy metals from hard water systems without losing water in hopes of providing more accessible water quality mitigation for residents. Alireza Farsad, a postdoctoral research scholar at ASU who founded AmorPH2O, the company developing the filter, expects it to be commercially available next year.
Meanwhile, Vargas and James have presented the water quality study results to local county commissioners and talked with state lawmakers about the increasing concentrations of heavy metals.
But, for now, the issue has seen little action beyond testing.
San Luis, CO – MAY 5, 2026: Shirley Romero Otero, a local activist and teacher poses for a portrait in town of San Luis, Colorado on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. As an educator and activist Romero Otero has spent decades organizing for land and water rights in the San Luis Valley. (Photo by Jacob Spetzler/Special to Inside Climate News)
For Shirley Romero Otero, a local educator and activist who helped implement Jamesโs study, water quality in the San Luis Valley is an issue of environmental justice. She says the valley, home to the stateโs largest native Hispanic population, is often left out of policymaking conversations.
โThose folks in Denver that make those decisions for testing and resources need to pay attentionโฆWe are part of Colorado. We should have equality when it comes to testing and finding out what the hell is really going on,โ says Otero, who lives in San Luis, the stateโs oldest continuously occupied town, which has fewer than 600 residents.
โRegardless of socioeconomic status, political affiliation or racial geographic areas, water is the most precious resource that we have. It is the lifeblood of every community. You donโt have water, you die. Itโs that simple.โ
San Luis , CO – MAY 5, 2026: An acequia flows into San Luis, Colorado on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Acequias are traditional community-managed irrigation ditches that channel water from rivers and streams to farms and towns. (Photo by Jacob Spetzler/Special to Inside Climate News)
Typical cold aisle configuration with server rack fronts facing each other and cold air distributed through the raised floor. By Robert.Harker – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=29153430
Saguache County adopted a resolution on Tuesday, May 5, 2026 that placed an emergency temporary moratorium on any data center projects within the county for six months.ย
Some language was changed in the draft resolution during the meeting, but the commissioners said the resolution was drafted following their April 21 meeting where San Luis Valley Rural Electric Cooperative CEO Eric Eriksen said that the power company had received three inquiries for โrural data centerโ projects in the Valley.
A representative with SLVREC said Eriksen was out of the office this week, so a voicemail was left with him on Tuesday morning.
Alamosa County Administrator Roni Wisdom sent the Citizena copy of SLVRECโs informational newsletter that breaks down what a โrural data centerโ is. In that letter given to the Alamosa County Commissioners, Eriksen said that over the past year, SLVREC โhave been in discussion with three rural data center developers exploring opportunities.โ
The Saguache County moratorium is necessary โfor the immediate preservation and protection of the public health, safety, and welfare of the citizens of Saguache County.โ
โEverybody in our county is upset about data centers,โ said Saguache County Commissioner Liza Marron.
The primary purpose for enacting an emergency temporary moratorium on the acceptance, processing, or approval of data center projects is โto provide the County sufficient timeโ to develop and amend the Saguache County Land Use Code, Standards, other sections of the Land Use Code, and Saguache County 1041 Regulations.
Any changes to the land use code requires a review and recommendation by the County Planning Commission and a public hearing.
โThe intent of the new Land Use Code and 1041 provisions prepared and implemented during the moratorium period is to establish an improved process and standards regarding requests for Data Center projects,โ the resolution reads.
โCounty Land Use Department has informed the BOCC that it has received inquiries regarding data center projects and the current regulations in the Land Use Code,โ the original draft read. This turned out not to be the case.
Saguache Land Use Administrator Amber Wilson said her office has not had any official inquiries for data centers. โNo one has come to us,โ she said.
The language in the paragraph of the moratorium had been changed on May 5 to reflect the information stemming from SLVREC.
The Saguache County commissioners can put the moratorium in place for the purposes of โprohibiting or regulating in any part of or all of the unincorporated territory of the county used or to be used for any business, residential, industrial or commercial purposeโฆ.โ
Meanwhile in Alamosa County, Land Use and Building Director Richard Hubler told the Citizen, โwe have not received any applications for data centers, although Iโve had a couple questions about them, including a call from someone related to this small scalecontainer based projectโ
Hubler said that Alamosa County doesnโt currently have anything specific codes to address data centers, but he said the county is currently โtalking about updates that would likely end up with some new language about stand-alone data centers as a primary use, and something related to size.โ
โCertainly the Hyperscale centers like the Front Range are seeing could have a huge impact on housing and energy needs,โ Hubler said, โin addition to water. But the smaller ones like that container may be a good fit for existing capacity on the SLVREC system.โ
He noted there are some small data centers that assist agriculture operations and also the local hospital system.
โWe even have server rooms at the county buildings, but these are all ancillary to the principal use, not developed for commercial sale/rental applications, and are not as much part of the current โdata centerโ conversation which focuses heavily on AI.โ
โOur high altitude cool sunshine air, your SLV Rural Electric Cooperative and Ciello broadband are perhaps the most ideal conditions in the nation for a rural data center,โ Eriksen wrote. โThat gives us a competitive advantage.โ
Eriksen wrote mainly about the economic and technological benefits of a data center in rural areas.
โNot all data centers are the same,โ he wrote. โNot every data center is a giant, power-hungry, watering-guzzling complex like the ones you see in national news.โ
He compared the different types of data centers: Hyperscale data centers, regional data centers, and edge or rural data centers. Hyperscale data centers require 100 megawatts of power or more and thousands of square feet. Regional data centers are described as mid-sized facilities that require strong infrastructure, but are often operating on less than 100 megawatts.
The rural data centers, Eriksen said, โare the most relevant for usโฆ Rural data centers are small, efficient facilities โ often the size of a modular 20โ or 40โ metal container, a home or a small commercial building.โ
He wrote that SLVRECโs largest โelectric memberโ is about 1.5 megawatts.
These data centers, Eriksen wrote, require far less power than hyperscale data centers, operating at 50 kilowatts up to 50 megawatts. These centers are said to commonly use air-cooling or closed-loop refrigeration instead of consuming water.
In SLVRECโs position, the agriculture industryโs energy demand โhas been declining.โ The company sees the โunderutilized capacityโ as an opportunity โto serve five, 10, 20, 50 megawatts or more of rural data centers.โ
According to SLVREC, there are seven long-haul fiber routes into and out of the Valley, โwith terabytes of unused capacity that is ideal for data centers.โ
Eriksen said that reducing the โdigital distanceโ between the San Luis Valley โand the rest of the world is transformational. When data is processed closer to home, everything works better and faster. Rural data centers can help lower rates.โ
Those three developers that SLVREC has been in communication with โhavenโt pulled the trigger yet, but if one does, then youโll know itโll be beneficial for all of us,โ wrote Eriksen.
Click the link to access the report on the University of Colorado website (Eric Kuhn,1ย Anne Castle,2ย Carlos de la Parra,3ย John Fleck,4ย Jack Schmidt,5ย Kathryn Sorensen,6ย Katherine Tara7). Here’s the abstract:
March 26, 2026
Since 1945, the United States and Mexico have managed common interests on their two largest shared rivers systems, the Colorado and the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande, under the terms of the 1944 international treaty that was designed from the beginning with tools to adapt to changing hydrologic and societal conditions.
A recent emergency agreement on the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande illustrates what is possible, and with old river management rules on the Colorado both within the United States and between the United States and Mexico about to expire, we are at a moment of opportunity for meaningful change.
The core problem on the Colorado River, which we address in the analysis that follows, arose from decisions made in the first half of the 20th century to allocate fixed volumes of water. As usage patterns and hydrology change in the 21st century, fixed volumes no longer work. A shift to a percentage-based split between the United States and Mexico on the Colorado River, based on the river’s actual natural flow, would provide a solid foundation for the two countries’ joint management of the Colorado in the decades to come.
1ย Retired General Manager, Colorado River Water Conservation District.
2ย Senior Fellow, Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado Law School; former US Commissioner, Upper Colorado River Commission; former Assistant Secretary for Water and Science, US Dept. of the Interior.
3ย Founder and Managing Partner, Centro Luken de Estrategias en Agua y Medio Ambiente, Tijuana, Mexico.
4ย Writer in Residence, Utton Transboundary Resources Center, University of New Mexico.
5ย Director, Center for Colorado River Studies, Utah State University; former Chief, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center.
6ย Director of Research, Kyl Center for Water Policy, Arizona State University; former Director, Phoenix Water Services.
7ย Sta๏ฌ Attorney, Utton Transboundary Resources Center, University of New Mexico.
Author note
This paper is intended to supplement and complement a series of related papers written in the last year by the authors (or subset of the authors) addressing the critical problems facing the Colorado River Basin, including:
โขย Eric Kuhn, Anne Castle, & John Fleck, Royce Tipton and the Hydrology of the 1944 Treaty with Mexico, (May 2025). Available at:ย Kuhn-et-al-2025-Royce-Tipton-Mexico-Hydrology.pdf.
โขย Anne Castle, John Fleck, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, and Katherine Tara, Essential Pillars for the Post-2026 Colorado River Guidelines, (April 2025). Available at:ย 2025-04-25 Principles.
โขย Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, John Fleck, Kathryn Sorensen, and Katherine Tara, Analysis of Colorado River Basin Storage Suggests Need for Immediate Action, (September 2025).
โขย Kathryn Sorensen, Sarah Porter, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, and Katherine Tara, Consideration for Assigned Water after Expiration of the 2007 Guidelines
The dusty Acequia Madre de Caรฑon de Chama, pictured above April 28, 2026, will soon divert Rio Chama water toward historic orchards the San Joaquรญn del Rio de Chama Land Grant first planted more than 200 years ago, thanks to a new agreement between the land grant and the Santa Fe National Forest. (Photo courtesy Leonard Martinez)
Click the link to read the article on the Source NM website (Patrick Lohman):
May 5, 2026
A dusty acequia in northern New Mexico, which more than 200 years ago diverted water from the Rio Chama, will soon spring to life again, nourishing freshly planted orchards of plums, apples and apricots.
Thatโs the idyllic scene envisioned through a new agreement between the Santa Fe National Forest and heirs of the San Joaquรญn del Rio de Chama Land Grant. The parties say the โmemorandum of understandingโ they signed in late March marks the potential thawing of more than a century of tension between New Mexico land grants and the federal government.
The agreement, which the Santa Fe National Forest Service provided to Source NM through a public records request, identifies the acequia restoration as a โproject of mutual interest.โ It also recognizes the land grant as a consulting partner to the Forest Service and provides it greater input into the landโs future use.
Leonard Martinez, president of the land grant, told Source NM that the nine-page agreement is a โhistoric document,โ one that marks the first such formal agreement between land grants and the Forest Service. He said heโs spent nearly every day since the agreement was signed clearing the historic irrigation canal and working to reconnect it to the Rio Chama.
San Joaquin de Chama President Leonard Martinez said he has spent most every day since signing the memorandum of agreement digging out the old path of the acequia in the Caรฑon de Chama. (Photo courtesy Leonard Martinez)
If all goes well, he will open the headgates of the Acequia Madre de Caรฑon de Chama later this summer, sending Chama River water to irrigate a cover crop of alfalfa. Within five years, he hopes to replant historic orchards.
When that happens, he said, he hopes the โheirs who have left us,โ many of them still buried in a cemetery near the headgates, will approve of his efforts.
โThatโs the key here,โ he said. โWe want to put our orchards and our fields back in.โ
Santa Fe National Forest spokesperson Claudia Brookshire told Source NM that the agreement resulted from trust established through informal talks and individual projects.
โThe Forest Service has long been willing to work with land grants,โ Brookshire said in an email. โBut the lack of a formal framework, combined with trust barriers, made it difficult to begin projects on national forest system lands.โ
The Santa Fe National Forest is in early discussions to develop similar agreements with two other land grants, Brookshire said.
In 1806, Spanish Governor Joaquรญn del Real Alencaster charged 44 families with stewardship of a 470,000-acre swath of what was then the New Mexico Territory. By 1860, according to the land grant, more than 800 residents established roots there, cultivating land within the river valleys, pasturing livestock and gathering resources from the surrounding common lands, known as the โejido.โ
But after multiple lawsuits and land re-surveys over the ensuing decades, the federal government and land speculators acquired the land and evicted the residents. By 1905, the federal government recognized only about 1,500 acres of land along the Rio Chama as belonging to the land grant, but even that parcel ended up in the hands of the Rio Arriba Land and Cattle Company.
The parcel west of Abiquรญu, known as the Caรฑon de Chama, remained the companyโs property for decades before the federal government ultimately acquired it, as well. Today, all of the original San Joaquรญn del Rio de Chama Land Grant belongs to the Santa Fe National Forest or Carson National Forest.
Land grant heirs like Martinez have fought for more than a century to reassert their rights over the land, including seeking Forest Service permission to visit and care for the cemetery where their ancestors are buried.
The heirs ultimately received a Forest Service easement in 2013 to access the cemetery. Since then, Martinez and other land grant leaders have continued to pressure the Forest Service for more access, particularly to the Caรฑon de Chama, which heirs describe as culturally and historically significant.
Martinez told Source NM that the agreement is a result of trust built through the cemetery easement, he said, as well as guidance from the New Mexico Department of Justiceโs Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo Division.
The NMDOJ created the division in 2003 to oversee and address concerns related to the provisions of the 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ushered in the United Statesโ governmentโs problematic land title confirmation process and stripped the San Joaquin land grant heirs of hundreds of thousands of acres of communal land.
New Mexico Rep. Miguel Garcia (D-Albuquerque) has spent much of his 30 years in office advocating for land grant heirs, including seeking recurring state funding and greater recognition of the historical injustice of the federal governmentโs land seizure.
While he said the new agreement represents a โgreat leap forwardโ and commended Martinez and others for their efforts, he said his ultimate goal remains for the Forest Service to return land it now controls to the land grants.โ
โThese land grants that lost these common lands have not ceded their right to that land,โ he said. โThey have not given up that hope.โ
As the Rio Grande dries out months early, water managers look to blessings, prayers and groundwater to save the acequias that have spread water, history and culture to farmers and families since the 16th century.
On a sunny spring morning at the end of March, a woman raised her little girl above an irrigation ditch that runs just west of the Rio Grande in Albuquerqueโs South Valley. The toddler, with a braided head piece crowning her long, brown hair and artificial flowers around her neck, enthusiastically tossed an assortment of colored petals into the water below as a small crowd cheered.
It was part of a blessing ceremony at the headwaters of the Atrisco Acequia Madre (Atrisco Mother Ditch)โconsidered to be the oldest and most important of these irrigation canals in the areaโduring โPrimera Agua,โ an annual celebration that commemorates the first water flow of the season.
The day, sponsored by the Center for Social Sustainable Systems (CESSOS), a local advocacy group, was filled with traditional dances, songs, chants, blessings and speeches about community.But it also included acknowledgments of the water challenges that New Mexico faces.
New Mexico snowpack April 23, 2026.
This year, New Mexicans are confronting record-low snowpack, which is essential for supplying an even flow of water into acequia systems. Record heat isnโt helping, as it accelerates evaporation throughout New Mexico waterways and has contributed to an early melt off of the already thin snowpack.
At the March 29 Primera Agua event, temperatures were 14 degrees Fahrenheit above average in Albuquerque, and about a week earlier, the city set a record for the earliest 90-degree day of the year. Like much of the West, the city also experienced its warmest winter on record.
โEvery year seems like itโs a new bar in terms of the record low,โ Paul Tashjian, director of freshwater conservation for Audubon Southwest, said of the low water levels that were already hitting the state in late March. โBut this year is almost like that on steroidsโฆItโs not a pretty picture.โ
Santiago Maestas, president of the South Valley Regional Association of Acequias, stands next to the Pajarito acequia in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Visual: Lourdes Medrano for Undark
โItโs in Your Bloodโ
New Mexicoโs acequias date back to the late 16th century, when the Spanish colonized the region. By 1700, what would become New Mexico had around 60 of these community-managed irrigation ditches. Today, there are more than 700 active acequias in the state, many of them concentrated in Northern New Mexico.
The man-made, gravity-fed earthen canals transport snowmelt and river water to fields for flood irrigation. They each have a governing body called a โmayordomoโ or โditch bossโ and elected commissioners who oversee maintenance, water distribution and conflict resolution.
Some areas have seen traditional acequias absorbed into larger water conservancy districts. The Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MRGCD), for instance, covers a 150-mile stretch of the Rio Grande from Cochiti to Bosque del Apache. Here, MRGCD diverts water from the river to the agencyโs irrigation system, which delivers it to acequia headgates, where local groups take over.
Most acequias across the state, however, still operate as individual political subdivisions.
Dawn Nieto Gouy grew up in Albuquerqueโs historic Los Duranes, a neighborhood where acequias such as the Duranes Lateral run alongside homes and agricultural fields.
โItโs in your blood. Itโs in your soul,โ Nieto Gouy said, describing the cultural significance of these waterways. She recalled playing with her best friend alongside an acequia near her home as a child.
โIt was like I would spend almost a lifetime in a day getting from our house to the end, meeting at the acequia, running around barefoot and playing and bathing, doing whatever we did there,โ she said. โAnd then the days would just run away from us.โ
Despite their long history and cultural importance, acequiasโand the people who depend on themโface an urgent threat from climate change. This year, New Mexicoโs snowpack hit historic lows in early spring, dropping to around 20 percent of normal as of April 20. That record-low snow collided with warmer-than-usual temperaturesโthe state experienced its hottest March in recorded history, surpassing the old record by 4.4 degrees Fahrenheitโto produce this outcome.
People cross a bridge over the Atrisco Acequia Madre during the Primera Agua event in Albuquerque. Credit: Tina Deines/Inside Climate News
In Northern New Mexico, water rights holdersโknown as parciantesโexpressed concern that the meager snowpack wouldnโt sustain the many acequias that weave through the region. One Santa Fe New Mexican reportdescribed the dire situation in the village of Truchas, where acequias were already running low at the start of the irrigation season.
Further south, MRGCD announced in late March that there may not be enough water this year to meet the needs of its 11,000 irrigators, including acequia parciantes. And as of March 27, the Rio Grande showed early signs of drying at the San Acacia reach, an area that typically begins to diminish in early summer.
โHistorically, we used to talk about May as being a very early time to see that happen,โ said Anne Marken, river operations manager for MRGCD, which oversees irrigation, drainage and river control for around 60,000-70,000 acres of farmland. โLast year it happened in April and we were all very shocked by that, but this year it happened in March.โ
Praying for Rain
During times of water scarcity, acequia communities have long relied on sharing practices. Users may be assigned specific days or hours when they can access water, for instance. Similarly, MRGCD utilizes rotating water deliveries within its districtโdelivering water to different irrigators at different times, depending on availabilityโand is implementing that management strategy this year.
โWater users are strongly encouraged to take water when it is available, future opportunities may be uncertain,โ the agency said in a press release.
Other than that, water managers and acequia parciantes across the state are praying for rain to help replenish the system and water fields.
โThereโs not a ton of tools in our toolbox right now from a water management perspective,โ Marken conceded, explaining her department is currently working in a run-of-the-river system, meaning that the only available water is what is in the river.
Map of the Rio Grande watershed. Graphic credit: WikiMedia
Elephant Butte Reservoir could go as low as 2% capacity this summer. I reported from Santa Fe on the Rio Grande Compact Commission meeting as Colorado, New Mexico and Texas contend with less water after a dismal winter and warm spring.@insideclimatehttps://t.co/lTKDYnAqRu
The San Luis Valley has an overabundance of potatoes in storage here in mid-April that, because of the warm winter, is leading to concerns about what happens as a new growing season begins.
An historically hot March that punctuated a warm winter overall is creating quality standard problems in the potato bins of the Valley. If a potato bin doesnโt meet the quality standard, it doesnโt ship. [ed. emphasis mine]
โWhen we start to lose a bin, a bin can be 5,000 sacks, 10,000 sacks, up to 100,000 sacks โฆ then we look at a really gigantic pile of potatoes that has to be managed,โ explains Jeff McCullough, who operates Spud Seller farms and potato packaging and distribution in Rio Grande County.
Fourth-generation farmer Jeff McCullough. Credit: The Citizen
McCullough does the math on the amount of potatoes estimated to be in storage that may not find a market or their way to processing facility and comes up with a mind-boggling figure on how big a problem this is.
Based on conversations with other operators in the Valley, he is estimating a million hundredweight worth of potatoes, or about a hundred million pounds of potatoes that may not be sold or processed this year and would have to be dumped.
Others say the figure may be an underestimate. And they say the problem isnโt just in the San Luis Valley but everywhere potatoes are grown as an oversupply and weak market keep potatoes in storage.
How a warm winter hurts the quality of potatoes in storage: โA potato is a living organism. It generates its own heat. And so throughout the wintertime, we still have to push cold air and cool those potatoes down. Otherwise, those potatoes will generate heat and once they generate enough heat, theyโll sprout, then they wonโt meet a quality standard at all โฆ Thereโs a lot of instances where you lose an entire bin because the bin generates too much heat before you can get it sold.โ โย Jeff McCullough, Spud Sellerย
Itโs the responsibility of each grower to figure out how to dispose of whatโs left over from their fields, but with such a large amount, McCullough and others see it as a communitywide problem that is going to require input at the public level on what to do.
To that end, McCullough has been meeting with county officials and has a joint meeting set up to address the situation with county commissioners representing Alamosa and Rio Grande counties.
โWeโre going to need to find a good way to dispose of these potatoes,โ McCullough says.
Adding to the problem is the loss of the Colorado Gourmet processing plant in Center that burned down two years ago and isnโt coming back, leaving the Valley with only one processing facility. It handled about 40 percent of the potatoes that got processed each year.
Potato production in the Valley remained steady in 2025. Total potato acreage went to 51,474 acres from 50,188 acres in 2024, according to the 2025 USDA acreage report. A tight potato market, though, is keeping potatoes in storage as local growers work with distributors over the next three months to move potatoes and clear storage for the 2026 crop.
Credit: The Citizen
โThe next harvest will start roughly, the first of September, and so the ideal situation is we are out of this crop the day that we start harvesting the new crop,โ says McCullough.
The Spud Seller needs to move about 550,000 sacks of potatoes โ each sack 100 pounds โ by around July to keep pace and to keep the backlog of potatoes from growing at his operation, McCullough figures.
Others are in similar boats.
โThereโs still a shit-ton of potatoes out there,โ said Mark Lounsbury, general manager of Grower Shipper Potato Company.
Lounsbury and McCulloughโs packaging and shipping operations are two of the biggest in the Valley.
2025 top six certified varieties of SLV spuds were:
The variety of potato in storage matters, too. Some varieties have a longer dormancy period and will store longer, while a less dormant variety like a Russet Norkotah that wants to sprout has to be gone by a calendar date, McCullough said.
Newer varieties of potatoes are creating efficiencies on the growing side, using less water and creating more yield even as less acreage is planted.
Potato growers have to follow rules for cull piles outlined in the Colorado Seed Potato Act, which will make the dumping of the amount of potatoes McCullough and others are talking about all the more challenging to figure out.
Hence the outreach to county officials.
Credit: The Citizen
The process involves smashing or crushing each individual potato, spreading them out in a very thin layer and then running them over with something. โFor example, we have a manure spreader that we run our potatoes through and it chops them up and it kind of disintegrates them. And then it spreads them out into a thin layer, and then once you break the skin of that potato, it dries out really well,โ McCullough says.
โWeโve been in situations in years past where weโve had to dump a lot of potatoes, and itโs because of those years that weโve come up with these new laws.โ
But Valley potato growers rarely see a year where a hundred million pounds of potatoes may have to be dumped. Then again, the Valley has never seen a March where the temperatures reached into the 80s and caused potatoes in storage to want to sprout.
An oversupply of potatoes, coupled with a burned-down processing plant and a much too warm winter, is creating the conditions for a biggest cull pile of potatoes the Valley has ever seen. Proper disposal is essential.
โIt is not one person that can swoop in and solve this,โ said Tara Artho, executive director of the Colorado Potato Administrative Committee in Monte Vista. โItโs going to take the community.โ
Aerial view of the San Luis Valleyโs irrigated agriculture. Photo by Rio de la Vista.
Water Managers anticipate flows in the San Luis Valleyโs rivers and creeks will be very low in spring and summer 2026.
The Colorado Division of Water Resources Division 3 Engineerโs April 6 10-day report forecasted the total annual flow of the Rio Grande at the Del Norte gage will be 270,000 acre-feet, which is 42 percent of the long-term average. For reference, flows of the Rio Grande at Del Norte in 2018 totaled 280,400 acre-feet. The forecasted flow of the Conejos River system is 110,000 acre-feet, which is 37 percent of the long-term average. The snow water equivalent on April 9 for the Upper Rio Grande Basin was 12 percent of the median for 1991-2020.
The National Weather Service is forecasting hot temperatures along with below average precipitation into the summer. The irrigation season began on March 23 on the Rio Grande and March 16 on the Conejos River. As such, on-stream reservoirs are required to pass all inflows to satisfy the needs of downstream senior water rights holders. Given the low amount of snow, the exceptionally warm spring temperatures, and the anticipated summer drought conditions, it is possible that local rivers reached peak flow in March.
Rio Grande operations
The operators of reservoirs on the Rio Grande will time their releases of irrigation water to coincide with the canals being in priority to allow water to reach farmers. It is anticipated that many of the canals will only be in priority to divert water for a short time window, in some cases only days or weeks. As such, releases of irrigation water will begin in the next week.
The Santa Maria Reservoir Company will begin releasing stored irrigation water into North Clear Creek on April 14 at a rate of 200-300 cfs for 10 days. Additional releases will continue as farmers call for water. Rio Grande Reservoir will also begin releasing stored irrigation water into the Rio Grande on April 14 for approximately 20 days. The rate of the release will start at 100-150 cfs and increase up to 350-450 cfs. After deliveries are complete, releases will be limited to the natural inflows. As such, boatable flows on the Rio Grande may diminish as early as mid-May.
Entities including Colorado Parks and Wildlife, the San Luis Valley Water Conservancy District, and the Rio Grande Water Conservation District store water in reservoirs in the Upper Rio Grande Basin and call for releases for their operations in accordance with their water rights decrees.
Where possible, releases by these organizations will be prioritized during hot periods to supplement the natural flow of the Rio Grande and the South Fork of the Rio Grande to reduce high water temperatures to protect the health of fish. Unfortunately, there may not be sufficient water to keep temperatures below thresholds for responsible fishing. As such, anglers are encouraged to check temperature gages and not engage in catch and release fishing if water temperatures reach exceed 70 degrees. Temperature is measured at the 30 Mile Bridge, Wagon Wheel Gap, Del Norte, and South Fork Gages and can be viewed at the Colorado Division of Water Resourcesโ website (dwr.state.co.us). [ed. emphasis mine]
Platoro Reservoir. Photo credit: Rio de la Vista
Conejos River operations
Platoro Reservoir is passing inflows, which were 10 times higher than average for much of March because of rapid snowmelt. The Conejos Water Conservancy District allocated 6,500 acre-feet of project water to the irrigators. Unfortunately, river flows are currently too low to carry that water to farmersโ headgates and water will not be released unless river flows improve. It is likely that the river will have dry up points below Highway 285. Anglers are encouraged to check temperature gages below Platoro Reservoir and near Mogote before engaging in catch and release fishing.
Links to Stream Gages with Temperature Measurements:
Heather Dutton is district manager for the San Luis Valley Water Conservancy District, which provides leadership to the San Luis Valley water community, a forum for learning and development, and the service of well augmentation in five counties in the San Luis Valley. More by Heather Dutton
Click the link to read the paper on the Getches-Wilkinson Center website (Eric Kuhn,ย Anne Castle,ย Carlos de la Parra,ย John Fleck,ย Jack Schmidt,ย Kathryn Sorensen,ย Katherine Tara). Here’s the abstract:
March 26, 2026
Since 1945, the United States and Mexico have managed common interests on their two largest shared rivers systems, the Colorado and the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande, under the terms of the 1944 international treaty that was designed from the beginning with tools to adapt to changing hydrologic and societal conditions. A recent emergency agreement on the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande illustrates what is possible, and with old river management rules on the Colorado both within the United States and between the United States and Mexico about to expire, we are at a moment of opportunity for meaningful change. The core problem on the Colorado River, which we address in the analysis that follows, arose from decisions made in the first half of the 20th century to allocate fixed volumes of water. As usage patterns and hydrology change in the 21st century, fixed volumes no longer work. [ed. emphasis mine] A shift to a percentage-based split between the United States and Mexico on the Colorado River, based on the river’s actual natural flow, would provide a solid foundation for the two countries’ joint management of the Colorado in the decades to come.
Coloradoโs top-25 March heat waves since 1951, defined as 4-day averaged statewide temperatures. Coloradoโs warmest heat wave (set last week, March 18-21) eclipsed its previous warmest heat wave (March 23-26, 2004) by nearly 5ยฐF. Data from NCEI nclimgrid via the Colorado Climate Center
Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):
March 30, 2026
It was weird, it was wacky. This string of summer days in Colorado that arrived around the first day of spring was extraordinary. Will it change us in some fundamental way?
Itโs not like 9/11, the day we saw people jumping from the skyscrapers in New York City to escape an even more cruel death by fire. We knew instantly that the world was different and in a very big way.
But doesnโt this anomaly deserve more than a shrug of the shoulders? As summer arrived in the last days of winter, I heard several people say, โWell, enjoy this nice weatherโ as you passed through their doors. A well-intentioned pleasantry but detached from a vital truth. Nice weather for Arizona maybe, but this was Colorado.
Winter had altogether been very, very warm. November was the third warmest November on record across Colorado. December the warmest. February also broke records.
Then came March. Alamosa, a town at 7,543 feet in elevation in Coloradoโs San Luis Valley, notched 11 record highs during March going into the last weekend. This included nine in a row from March 18-26. Of special note was the record high of 83 degrees recorded on March 21. It broke the old record by 7 degrees. It also was a higher temperature than has ever been recorded in Alamosa in April.
Crested Butte had a high temperature of 68, a full 10 degrees higher than the old record for that date.
Dates of first 90ยฐF or warmer day in Fort Collins from 1895-present. The blue dashed line shows the 1991-2020 mean 90ยฐF or warmer day, which is June 9. Data from ACIS.
Fort Collins got to 91 degrees, also 10 degrees more than the old record for that date. It was the highest ever mark for March โ but also higher than anything ever recorded in April, whose record remains 89 degrees. The average first day for 90 degrees in Fort Collins is June 15.
Allie Mazurek, of the Colorado Climate Center staff,ย posted a reportย on Thursday morning that defines in numbers what she calls an event โimpossible to ignore.โ Included in her presentation is theย chart atop this essay that shows how anomalous this four-day streak of heat was compared to others in Colorado during March.
This heat was nearly uniform across Colorado. โThere were far more stations in the state that broke all-time monthly high records for March than did not,โ wrote Mazurek. โTo see monthly records shattered by more than 5 degrees F across numerous stations is truly remarkable. The kind of heat that we saw last week across Colorado is more typical of June or even July.โ
Remarkable about theheat in Colorado was not only its intensity but its longevity across four days (March 18-21). โOver that period, several locations set new monthly records every one of those days, with each day being warmer than the last.โ
March maximum temperature records at various long-term weather stations throughout Colorado. Data from ACIS.
This heat comes at a particularly bad time. The thin snowpack was already melting. The deepest snowpack in Coloradoโs mountains has traditionally occurred in early May, because of accumulations at higher elevations.
That assumes a normal of some sort โ although it is questionable whether โnormalโ has any true meaning given how fast the climate is now changing. So take this for what itโs worth: the statewide snowpack this past week sat at 38% of the 1991-2020 median. And what must be noted here โ as with the temperature records that were broken โ is that we have had an exceptional increase of heat in Colorado in the last 25 years.
Notable in the lifetimes of baby boomers in Colorado were the winters of 1976-77 and 1980-81. This yearโs meager runoff will almost certainly surpass those dry years. New is the heat.
High-pressure heat domes can be predicted but are notoriously challenging to forecast weeks or months in advance. They also remain rare, but the warming atmosphere makes them more likely.
โWe do have high pressures every year across the West,โ said Mark Wankowski, a meteorologist at the Pueblo office of the National Weather Service. โThis one was extremely early.โ
Writing from Colorado Springs last weekend in an essay in The Atlantic titled โThereโs No Way the West Will Have a Normal Summer,โ Rebecca Boyle explained that the heat wave was created by a โa bizarrely strong ridge of high pressure in Earthโs atmosphere.โ This ridge suppressed cloud formation and brought in warmer air. โSuch atmospheric ridges are more common in the summer, but this one would be unusually intense even for that season.
Kaitlyn Trudeau, a senior researcher at the science nonprofit Climate Central, told Boyle this was the strongest ridge ever observed in March. Climate Central has developed a prediction model that assesses how much a warming trend or record high can be attributed to human-caused climate change. According to this model, the western high temps were five times more likely because of elevated greenhouse gas emissions.
I feel rattled by this heat. You may remember the high-pressure cooker that broiled the Pacific Northwest in June 2021. Temperatures spiked to 116 degrees in Portland. People in apartments that were not air conditioned died from the heat. In Multnomah County, the location of Portland, 72 deaths were attributed to heat. Farther north, in British Columbia, the town of Lytton went up in flames after several days of intense heat, including a temperature that reached 121 degrees Fahrenheit.
After that heat, the Colorado Public Utilities Commission asked Xcel to assess how well it could respond to somewhat similar heat in Colorado. The company concluded it had the resources.
But this week, in the wake of the intense spring heat, the PUC commissioners were clearly worried, part of a growing concern about โresource adequacy.โ Will Xcel be able to meet critical electrical needs if another heat dome arrives in Colorado this summer? The commissioners asked Xcel to return with strategies for reducing demand from big industrial customers if demand for cooling spikes.
Colorado Drought Monitor map March 24, 2026.
Curious about an on-the-ground perspective from this heat and sparse snow, I called Paul Bonnifield in Yampa. A drought map colors that part of northwest Colorado mahogany, beyond extreme drought and in the realm of โexceptional.โ What did exceptional drought look like to him?
Yampa lies at the headwaters of the Yampa River, between the Gore Range and the Flattops. It has a bucolic setting, a place of hay meadows and grazing cattle. Lying upstream are a couple of reservoirs on the edge of the Flattops.
Itโs not uncommon for snow to remain on the ground at Yampa, elevation, 7,900 feet, in late March. Not this year. โThe ground is hard, just dry, dry, dry,โ said Bonnifield.
Bonnifield grew up a few miles away at Phippsburg, a railroad town, and he worked on the railroad himself in addition to spending time teaching and writing at a college in Oklahoma. Heโs now in his late 80s and can put this yearโs anomalous heat and drought into perspective.
โWe are in serious trouble,โ he said. โIโve never seen it like this before.โ
Less water will mean less hay production in Egeria Park, where this photo was taken about eight years ago. Photo/Allen Best
Unless a miracle arrives in the form of spring rain and snow, ranchers in Bonnifieldโs area โ called Egeria Park โ will have to decide what to do with their cattle. Thereโs not enough water to grow grass. There will be wildfire smoke besotting the sky, dampening tourism. And as for river rafting downstream on the Yampa โ not likely. Steamboat Spring has already imposed watering restrictions for lawns.
Denver Water this week adopted lawn-watering restrictions for its customers in Denver as well as those in surrounding jurisdictions. It has 1.5 million customers, directly and indirectly, in the metro area.
Nathan Elder, the utilityโs manager of water supply, reported to board members on Wednesday that snowpack levels are at historic lows and melting earlier and more rapidly.
Denver Water diverts water from rivers and creeks on both sides of the Continental Divide. In Grand and Summit counties, at the headwaters of the Colorado River, the snowpack was 53% of normal and the lowest on record for the date, Elder said. The South Platte River has it even worse, just 40% of normal.
โThese are really unprecedented snowpack conditions,โ he said at the meeting on March 25. During the previous week โ the week of the heat dome โDenver had lost 25% of its snowpack in the areas it collects water, he reported.
Denver Water is asking the 1.5 million households and businesses that get water from the utility to refrain from starting to irrigate lawns, including this one in southeast Denver, until mid-May. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots
Can it get worse? Well, yes, it could. โItโs well documented that, in part, due to climate change, the runoff generated from a given snowpack has declined when compared to the past,โ said Elder. โSo we can expect even less water from this already low snowpack.โ
Might a miracle arrive? After the drought and heat of 2002, metro Denver was stressed. Then, on St. Patrickโs Day 2003, three feet of snow fell. In the San Luis Valley, monster rainfall last fall swelled the Rio Grande, leaving water in the soil that will help even now as farmers begin preparing their fields for early plantings.
NOAA projects continued likelihood of above normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across Colorado, including Denverโs collection area, during April.
Denver aims to reduce water use 20% by its customers in Denver and in outlying suburbs. It will permit lawn watering two days per week and then after 6 p.m. or before 10 a.m. It is also urging customers to refrain from watering their lawns until mid-May. Thatโs not an easy ask when it feels like June in March. In April, Denver Waterโs board members will be asked to approve โdrought pricing.โ
Russ Schumacher, the state climatologist in Colorado, is called upon frequently to give programs to water organizations and others. This past week he gave a presentation to the Fort Collins Chapter of the Colorado Renewable Energy Society.
โWildfire certainly is top of mind,โ he said while showing a time-lapse video of a wildfire called High Park Fire that occurred west of Fort Collins in 2012.
Dry and hot temperatures leave Russ Schumacher, the state climatologist, apprehensive about potential wildfires this year. Above photo is from the Longmont area in August 2020, a hot and smoky year when wildfires continued almost into November. Photo/Allen Best
Global warming is a simple proposition, he said.
โIf you put a pot of water on your stove youโre not going to be able to predict all those individual bubbles or exactly when itโs going to start boiling,โ he explained. โBut you know that when you turn that heat on, the waterโs going to get warmer and itโs going to continue to warm the more heat that you add. So the physics of climate change is actually rather similar in that regard.โ
And, of course, adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere traps heat, which heats the planet. โWhen you add heat to something, then it warms.โ
Colorado has had outliers of heat before. The Dust Bowl during the mid-1930s was a time of heat and drought. More hot and dry arrived in the 1950s.
This chart shows snowpack in Colorado. The heat dome caused rapid melting of snow. In the San Luis Valley, heavy rains of last October may allow farmers to survive better than during 2002.
Dry has not changed. The hot has changed. What used to be an extremely hot year in Colorado is now a fairly average year or just slightly-above-average year, said Schumacher.
Citing NOAA data, Schumacher showed a sharp rise of almost 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1980. The heat has been most acute in the summer and fall โ although, obviously, recent months spoil that easy narrative.
With a moderate rate of emissions, we can expect another 2.5 to 3 degrees of warming by around 2050. That expectation comes with a disclaimer about uncertainty. Itโs a best guess.
Precipitation has been more complicated than temperature in Colorado. As for the future, it remains a puzzle. Could be more, could be less. Either way, it will be impacted by temperatures.
โIf itโs warmer, if itโs windier, itโs less humid, the air is thirstier for water from the soils, crops, forests, reservoirs, wherever.โ Schumacher said. โAs it gets warmer, that evaporative demand goes up. The air is thirstier for water, and this has big implications for drought and water supply and water resources.โ
Might warming occur more slowly? Thatโs possible, and a possibility tied strongly to whether global emissions of greenhouse gases can be abated. Given the current political climate in the United States, a key player in world politics, this low-emissions scenario looks highly unlikely. More likely are the heat domes.
Like the pot of water on the stove that Schumacher described, weโre certain to see more heat bubbles. Hard to tell where and when they will be, but there will be more of them. That leaves me distinctly uncomfortable. In Colorado I have felt 104 degrees. I cannot fathom the 118 degrees of Portland.
Colorado statewide annual temperature anomaly (ยฐF) with respect to the 1901-2000 average. Graphic credit: Colorado Climate Center
Rio Grande levy near Alamosa, November 2024. Photo credit: The Alamosa Citizen
The theme this year was “Where Water Connects Us: Past Meets Present in the San Luis Valley”. Paul Formisano and the staff and volunteers from the Salazar Rio Grande del Norte Center delivered a varied, timely and interesting agenda!
San Luis People’s Ditch March 17, 2018. Photo credit: Greg Hobbs
Ken Salazar set the stage for the sessions, reminding attendees that, “Early settlers knew the only way to bring prosperity to the valley was to do it collectively as the early acequias did.”
Upper Rio Grande snowpack March 29, 2026. Credit: NRCS
The first session was titled, “State of the Rio: The 2026 river outlook general basin and compact projections” and the general consensus from the speakers was, as Brad Udall recently said about the Upper Colorado River Basin, “There is no historical analog,” for these conditions. Snow drought is front and center in the San Luis Valley these days.
Upper Rio Grande accumulated precipitation March 29, 2026. Credit: NRCS
Precipitation in the basin started out the water year in great shape due to a big rain event in early October. Since then there have been modest accumulations but has flattened out since late February to date.
Colorado SNOTEL basin-filled snowpack map March 28, 2026. Credit: NRCS
Division Engineer Craig Cotten started off his presentation with the basin-filled snowpack map for Colorado. He joked that, “The good news is, the Rio Grande is not the worst in the state.” It is not a good year as far as #snowpack and many SNOTEL locations are already melted-out.
Slide credit: Craig Cotten
Projected streamflow is not looking good and the forecast will likely be worse when the April 1, 2026 numbers are released by the NRCS. However, streamflow right now is looking okay, there is a lot of water in the #RioGrande at this time for example. That means that the little snowpack in the basin is already coming off.
Slide credit: Craig Cotten
Reservoir storage is in good shape (as a percent of average) except Sanchez Reservoir which has been drawn down for maintenance and repairs.
Current compliance numbers for the Rio Grande Compact from Craig Cotten. Photo credit: Chris Lopez/Alamosa Citizen
Colorado’s Rio Grande Compact compliance numbers heading into the scary diversion season are a positive. There is no debt owed to New Mexico and Texas. With the early onset to runoff season the State Engineer allowed irrigation to start on March 23, 2026. Current estimated streamflow for the Rio Grande at Del Norte (the compact USGS gage used for the river) is 305,000 acre-feet which carries a compact obligation of 76,000 acre-feet to New Mexico and Texas. For the Conejos River the estimated upper index annual flow is 165,000 acre-feet and the downstream obligation is 27,500 acre-feet. However, water levels are going to drop in the unconfined aquifer significantly this year due to low flows in the river. The situation in the aquifer is bad and it is going to get worse.
Cotten updated the attendees about the Rio Grande Compact lawsuit status. It is mostly a fight between Texas and New Mexico and the latest stipulated agreement has been approved by the Special Master. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to approve the agreement.
Nathan Coombs, in keepting with the symposium theme said, “I believe we’re going to be alright this season we’re going to survive. People in the San Luis Valley are working together and we’re going to get through it.”
Slide credit: Heather Dutton
Heather Dutton gave an overview of reservoir operations for 2026. It is possible that all irrigation water will be released in April and May. She added, “If you’re going to fish the streams emphasize fishing in the morning and visit one of our valley breweries in the afternoon. It’s going to be tough year for all of us. Please keep the farmers in mind.”
Reclamation informed attendees about the current status of the Closed Basin Project. Project priorities are:
Colorado’s compact deliveries
Mitigation for construction and pumping
Eliminate Colorado’s Rio Grande Compact deficit
Other beneficial uses/irrigation
Slide from Amber Pacheco
The session “Twenty years of subdistricts” illustrated how the well owners have been working together over the years to determine a solution to the declining unconfined aquifer. Because groundwater is not separate from surface water the lowered levels in the aquifer affect surface streamflow in the Rio Grande. Valley pumpers have formed several sub-districts fashioned around the different hydrology in areas of the aquifer and are retiring some wells and taking land out of production. Another strategy used has been o develop augmentation plans to offset pumping. All of the strategies involve fees to sub-district members. There is extensive coverage of the issue on Coyote Gulch if you are interested in taking a trip down memory lane.
Slide credit: Rachel James
The session “Flowing together: Agriculture, rivers, and communities in partnership” was an overview of collaboration between the City of Alamosa, the West Side Ditch, and Rio Grande Headwaters Restoration Project on the river at the east side of Alamosa. It included a new headgate for the ditch company and will include a new levy orientation and access to the river from Cole Park. The speakers emphasized that it would not have happened without collaboration and the emphasis on creating a win for all stakeholders. For example, Bill Schoen credited the Rio Grande Headwaters Restoration Project for finding funding for the new headgate which is often a problem for mutual ditch companies. Daniel Boyes of the Restoration Project said that the new headgate helps fish and safety for boaters.
Rio Grande, Colorado | National Park Service
The final session before the keynote was “Perspectives on valley recreation” where access to public lands and the value of building a recreation economy to bolster valley opportunities were discussed. While 39% of Colorado’s agricultural output is from the valley economic activity is seasonal. The discussion centered around bringing tourism to the valley to improve the outlook for employment and economic growth.
The keynote speaker was Ben Golfarb and it was a real treat. I never tire of learning about “Nature’s Engineers” and the amazing effect this keystone species has on hydrology and habitat. Trapped extensively by fur traders to enable the fashion industry in the 19th century the species was nearly extirpated from the North American West. Along with a torrent of information and photographs, Goldfarb informed attendees that the native tribes did not participate in trapping because of their understanding of beaver’s role in the arid lands.
Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. Map credit: By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, drainage basin from GTOPO [1], U.S. stream from the National Atlas [2], all other features from Vector Map., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11218868
An early start to the irrigation season in the San Luis Valley is coinciding with the arrival of springโs first heat wave.
Craig Cotten, Division 3 engineer for Colorado Division of Water Resources, announced a staged approach to opening the water year for producers in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.
The water season will begin on March 16 for surface and groundwater irrigators in the Conejos River area (Water District 22), the Culebra Creek area (Water District 24), the Trinchera Creek area (Water District 35) and the La Jara Creek area. The irrigation season will begin on March 23 for all surface and groundwater irrigation structures in the Rio Grande area (Water District 20).
โI decided to start the irrigation season earlier than the presumptive April 1 date for many valley areas due to the very warm, dry spring and the low current snowpack. We are already seeing an increase in streamflows due to the warmer weather, and it is beneficial for water rights holders to be able to use this water while it is available,โ Cotten said in an email exchange with Alamosa Citizen. [ed. emphasis mine]
On the Conejos River and Rio Grande, another reason is that Colorado is projected to meet its compact obligation without needing to deliver water during the irrigation season, Cotten said.
โIn order to avoid a significant over-delivery of water to the stateline, I have decided to begin the irrigation season on these rivers prior to April 1.โ
The coming week of March 16 could see record-setting temperatures to the official start of spring. The forecast calls for midweek daytime highs in the low- to mid-70s. March has seen 21 of its 31 days establish new record high temperatures since 2004, a heating trend that accentuates the warming winters and spring months.
This March opened with back-to-back days of new daily high records. More heat records could fall in the coming week. The irrigation season canโt open soon enough.
Upper Rio Grande SWE March 14, 2026. Note the early melt-out.
Chart showing water use trends in US and Mexico. Credit: Overconsumption gravely threatens water security in the binational Rio Grande-Bravo basin. Map via Springer Nature.
Sandhill Cranes just before sunrise March 8, 2026, Sange de Cristo Mountains in the distance.
We woke up to clear skies and very cold temperatures (6ยฐF) for Sandhill crane viewing on March 8, 2026. The Sandhills spend the night on the ground, usually in shallow water as they do not perch, and then start stirring and looking for a good breakfast spot like the field in the foreground in the photo above.
Video of Sandhill cranes in the early morning on March 8, 2026, San Juan mountains in the background. Sound up!
Charging during the festival was easy as pie at the Colorado Welcome Center in Alamosa. For the trip home I charged in Salida (excellent food at Mojo’s Eatery) and Bailey. Charging to and from the San Luis Valley from Denver is convenient and reliable. There is no reason any longer in Colorado to drive a vehicle with a tailpipe and pollute the atmosphere.
Here’s a writeup from The Alamosa Citizen:
Monte Vista saw big crowds for the 43rd annual Crane Festival. The Outcalt Event and Conference at Ski Hi Complex was teeming with people participating in the crane tours and nature work sessions. The retail vendors reported healthy sales. The sandhill cranes themselves didnโt disappoint. The majestic long-legged creatures were in the tens of thousands in the fields around the Monte Vista Wildlife Refuge. The cranes will stick around a bit longer.
Video of Sandhill cranes at breakfast. After flying around looking for breakfast great numbers of Sandhills settle down for breakfast March 8, 2026. Sound up!
Rancher Greg Higel usually opens a barn door for his cows to enter during the cold winter nights. Lately heโs been leaving the cows out at night because โthe less you mess with them, the better off they are.โ
The February weather has been warm enough not to mess with the cows.
The last two Februarys โ 2025 and 2026 โ have seen the daily maximum temperature average 50 degrees-plus in Alamosa, according to National Weather Service data. That has never happened before in the Valleyโs climate history.
National Weather Service records as far back as 1948 show only the past two Februarys so warm that ranchers like Higel, who are in the midst of their calving season, worry less about their cows at night and more about their grassfields and what the warm winter means for the ground itself. Included in that are overnight temps averaging in the double digits and frequently in the 20s.
โI donโt think itโs good for the farm ground,โ Higel says. He was hopeful the heavy October rains that had flooded his meadows would leave water frozen in the fields through the winter months. But the water hardly froze and the worry now is the anticipated light spring runoff and available water for the grass growing season ahead.
Of the 28 days in February this year, 20 have seen the daily maximum temperature exceed 50 degrees.The highest temperature for the month was 65 degrees on Feb. 25, following 64 degrees on Feb. 24, which established a new high for the date.
February 2025 was just as warm and warmer, with an average daily high temperature of 52.8 degrees. It was a year ago when the phenomenon of average 50-degree weather days was first noted after the mercury hit 60 degrees on 5 of the first 7 days of last February.
Suffice it to say, if it is this warm in February in the high mountain desert, the snowpack is going to suffer. The Upper Rio Grande Basin enters March measuring 55 percent of median on a snowwater equivalent index, which is what worries irrigators.
And itโs not just ranchers and farmers who should be paying attention.
Adam Moore, supervisory forester with Colorado State Forest Service, says trees around the home need watering when the winter months are this warm. The constant threat of wildfire is another reason to pay attention.
โThe SLV and the plains are still facing red flag warnings. There have been large grass fires in Oklahoma and Kansas. The conditions for those fires are not much different than what we have in the SLV. Just like the red flag warnings all year long, wildfire preparedness should occur all year,โ he says.
Just donโt get too far ahead. Gardeners should stick to the normal planting times, with mid-April being the earliest for any tree planting.
โDonโt let the warm weather fool you and plant early,โ Moore says. โWe still stand the chance of late frosts.โ
Tell that to Tomas Miera.
โIโve been riding all winter. My goodness, today is going to be like 64,โ he says, standing in his front yard in a short sleeve shirt, shorts and shining his Harley Davidson. โIโm going for a ride later on.โ
February allows for it. Itโs never been this way.
Spud Valley Energy Center’ would be built on 2,578 acres near Mosca and Hooper; it would ultimately develop 600 megawatts of solar energy and 600 megawatts of battery storage.
โSpud Valley Energy Centerโ would be the largest ever conceived for the Valley, and one of Coloradoโs biggest solar projects, at a time when ag producers are being forced to reduce their footprint to save on the water
It is an agricultural corridor in Alamosa County that is drying faster and seeing more buy-and-dry deals than other parts of the San Luis Valley due to the scarcity of water from the Upper Rio Grande Basin.
On 2,578 acres of private land off State Highway 17 leading into Mosca and Hooper, a number of families are entering into contracts with NextEra Energy and its bid to ultimately develop 600 megawatts of solar energy and 600 megawatts of battery storage on the fields that once grew crops.
The solar project, dubbed the โSpud Valley Energy Center,โ is the largest ever conceived for the Valley and one of Coloradoโs biggest. It comes at a time when ag producers in Subdistrict 1 of the Rio Grande Water Conservation District are being forced to reduce their footprint to save on the water. Solar development then, in a Valley plentiful with sunshine, becomes an alternative for the land and a company like NextEra Energy has the means to make it happen.
โA number of the landowners weโre working with have already either retired their wells or theyโre participating in CREP (Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program) to rest their lands for longterm,โ said Evan Reimondo, the project manager, in an interview with Alamosa Citizen.
Spud Valley is perfectly sited when you consider the other solar development already in the corridor, the Public Service Co. substation near the project site, the water conservation subdistrict it is in, and Alamosa Countyโs own interests for solar development through its 1041 permit process.
A different solar development proposal โ Korsail Energyโs Cornflower Solar project โ had its permit application denied by the county commissioners last year after it met a headwind of resistance from locals concerned about the location of the project that was within a migratory range of sensitive wildlife areas in west Alamosa County.
Korsail was seeking to build 90 megawatts of solar and 80 megawatts of battery storage on 986 acres, but was doomed because of the location it selected. NextEra Energyโs Spud Valley doesnโt seem to carry that burden with its location, and at 600 megawatts puts the Valley on the map for solar generation to support Coloradoโs goal of a state power grid built on 80 percent renewable energy by 2030.
โColoradoโs demand for electricity is going to keep growing as the population grows and technology develops and all of those things,โ said Reimondo, Spud Valleyโs project manager. โSo weโre preparing for the future when we over-permit. By permitting for 600, it gives us that future flexibility.โ
The plan is to build an initial 200 megawatts of solar and 200 megawatts of battery storage, and then stage to 600 megawatts of each from there. The transmission bottleneck โ bringing power in and out of San Luis Valley โ presents the biggest challenge.
โAs the grid is built out, as network upgrades are completed in the future, new (transmission) lines are built, and weโll be ready to take advantage of that,โ Reimondo says.
Alamosa County is currently reviewing NextEra Energyโs 1041 permit application and eventually will hold public hearings at the county planning level and then before the county commissioners.
Reimondo says the company hopes to begin construction in 2027, with the first 200 megawatts of solar and battery storage built and tied into the neighboring Public Service Co. substation by the end of 2029.