La Plata County estimates about $7.5 million in flood damage to private properties based on 412 submissions to the countyโs Crisis Track Disaster Survivor Portal. As of Monday, the county was still assessing damage to public infrastructure, including buildings, roads and bridges, and had not yet determined an estimated cost of repairs. County spokeswoman Emily Spencer said the county is awaiting a federal disaster declaration from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which would make federal assistance available to help residents affected by the flooding. Spencer said a federal disaster declaration would make two types of FEMA assistance available: public assistance and individual financial assistance.
โPublic (assistance) is the infrastructure finance and funding that would go to governments to rebuild their roads,โ Spencer said…
Individual assistance would go directly to those whoโs properties have been damaged by the flooding. La Plata County was not included in Coloradoโs initial request for a federal major disaster declaration following last monthโs flooding. Gov. Jared Polis initially requested the declaration for Archuleta and Rio Grande counties, where the state had identified nearly $27 million in damages eligible for federal public assistance. La Plata County officials are gathering information on damage to homes and public infrastructure, including roads, bridges and public buildings, and sharing those assessments with state officials for consideration. County-level damage assessments help Colorado officials evaluate the extent of the impact and provide information to the federal government as part of the request for a major disaster declaration.
Mancos middle and high school students volunteered to help fill sandbags for community members in need of them following recent flooding. The town of Mancos was also required to issue a boil/bottle water advisory on Friday due to unsafe water in the municipal water system. (Courtesy of Town Hall of Mancos Facebook)
The town of Mancos issued a boil/bottle water advisory Friday for customers of its municipal water system after flooding forced the release of โinadequately treatedโ water. The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment required the advisory.
โDue to ongoing impacts from the recent flooding, the town was required to allow inadequately treated water into the distribution system to maintain system pressure,โ the town said on its Facebook page.
The advisory will remain in effect until the health department determines the water is safe again and issues written authorization. All water in homes and businesses served by the town system is not considered safe and should only be used for flushing toilets until further notice. Residents on Mancos Rural Water or private wells are not affected.
Click the link to read the release on the USFS website:
November 2, 2026
Travel on San Juan National Forest System Roads is strongly discouraged and not advised due to life-threatening hazards. Record flooding across Southwest Colorado has left San Juan National Forest roads, trails, and other infrastructure inaccessible, severely damaged and, in many cases, unpassable. Highways across multiple counties are closed, and evacuation and shelter-in-place orders have been issued for multiple communities. Donโt become a statisticโrescue will not be readily available due to the current demand for search and rescue services.
โPublic safety is our top priority, which is why we do not recommend travel on the San Juan National Forest at this time,โ said Forest Supervisor Steve Hattenback on Monday morning. โWe will not begin to assess the extent of the damage until flood waters recede and our staff can begin to assess forest conditions. What we do know is that flood waters are extremely high, many roads and bridges are completely destroyed, and unsafe conditions persist on all three San Juan National Forest districts. We encourage the public to monitor the situation closely, and to postpone or cancel plans to visit the woods until conditions improve.โ
Offices Closed: All offices are closed at this time:
Pagosa District Office (phones and internet also down)
Durango Forest Headquarters
Dolores District Office
Columbine District Office is closed Mon โ Thurs, and is expected to be open for its regular office hours on Friday.
If you know of a forest visitor trapped down an unpassable road who needs evacuation help in:
Archuleta County, call 9-1-1 or the non-emergency dispatch line at 970-731-2160 when they are ready to be evacuated.
La Plata County, call 9-1-1 if an emergency, or non-emergency dispatch at 970-385-2900.
Please report abandoned property information if you are forced to leave vehicles behind by emailing the San Juan National Forest at: sm.fs.sanjuannf@usda.gov with the subject line of Personal Property. Please provide your name, phone number, license plates, description of property, and a detailed location, in addition to any other pertinent information.
For information on the San Juan National Forest, call (970) 247-4874, visit the forest website, or follow us on Facebook.
Oh, Water, you give and take away. Following one of the driest years on record, the water once again came pouring out of the sky and raging through the streams and rivers, setting new high-water records, bringing new life to the parched earth, and wreaking havoc and destruction wherever waterways and humanity intersected.
The rains stopped two days ago, but streams in southwestern Colorado continue to run at levels that would have been considered abnormally high a month ago. North of Durango, a tree careening down Hermosa Creek got wedged underneath the railroad bridge, creating a dam of sorts and forcing the muddy waters to jump the bank and run through a trailer park and neighborhoods, forcing more evacuations and closing Highway 550. Several other Durango area roads remain closed due to washouts or debris.
Junction Creek in Durango on the morning of Nov. 2, 2026. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Other roads remain closed throughout the region. Highway 160 between Bayfield and Pagosa is shut down because the Piedra River โ which exceeded 17,000 cfs yet again โ washed out the highway bridge. Hwy 151 from Chimney Rock to Arboles remains closed after being wrecked by the previous flood. Hwy 160 over Wolf Creek Pass is shut, as is Hwy 17 over Cumbres Pass between Chama and Antonito. These closures have basically marooned Pagosa, which suffered serious damage during this round of flooding.
In Utah, State Road 162 north of Montezuma Creek remains closed โ this is one of the stretches of road that was totally overhauled over the last couple of years. And Hwy 163 between Mexican Hat and Bluff is shut down after Comb Wash took a big bite out of the highway bridge.
Meanwhile, hundreds of affected residents are just beginning the long ordeal of cleaning up and attempting to cope with this disaster.
Having lived through a flood that filled my home with nine feet of water, I can imagine what these people have gone through, and the difficult journey they face ahead of them. Itโs heartbreaking to consider, and pains me even to write it down, yet it seems necessary. (Itโs equally heartening to see the communities come together to rescue and support those most affected).
After the sheer panic that hits when you realize the water is rising in your front yard; the adrenalin that sets in as you try to gather up loved ones, pets, important documents, and the phone and the laptop and wade through thigh-deep water in the yard; the elation that follows your escape and survival, comes the devastation of returning to your home, walking inside, and seeing furniture and appliances and books and possessions strewn about as if a mischievous god had picked up the house and shook it. If your home is still there, that is.
Every surface that was under water will be blanketed with fine, dense, tenacious mud. It will coat clothing. In many cases the mud itself will be tainted with sewage or other waste, and as the waters subside, a fecund odor infuses everything. Particle wood rots, drywall deteriorates, hardwoods warp, mold grows. When the mud dries it becomes quasi-sandstone that can be near impossible to remove; break it up and it turns to fine dust that is hazardous to inhale. For months or even years after the cleanup and renovations are done, people who were flooded will find the mud embedded in items or clothing.
Floods donโt discriminate, and are as likely to damage multi-million dollar homes as they are to inundate trailer parks. But the financial burden of recovery and cleanup weighs far heavier on low- and even middle-income folks. Many standard homeowners insurance policies do not include flood insurance, and your average homeowner or renter is likely to forego supplemental flood coverage because itโs very expensive, especially for homes in historic floodplains or near waterways.
Iโd like to believe this was an anomaly, something we can look back on as a sort of freak occurrence that, eventually, will be so unusual that it will feel as if it were unreal, something that became exaggerated by the passing of time. The 1911 Flood feels that way to me sometimes. How is it possible that the Animas River carried nearly twice the flows we saw on Nov. 2? Surely that could never happen again. Right?
And yet, we know this was not an anomaly because the early November deluge was the fifth abnormally high precipitation event of the previous six weeks, which was capped off by two record-breaking, catastrophic flooding events. On the one hand this is historic, unprecedented, a once-in-a-century event; on the other hand it could become nearly routine in our rapidly changing climate.
Either way, if my experience is any indication, one thing is almost certain: The people affected by these floods will feel a tinge of anxiety every time the weather forecast calls for heavy rain.
The Animas River at Santa Rita Park on Nov. 2, 2026, when it was running at about 12,100 cfs. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
The second flood of 2026 (and water year 2027) was the third largest on record at the USGS streamflow gage on the Animas River in Durango, with a peak flow of 13,000 cubic feet per second. That puts it ahead of both 1949 and 1970, but still well behind both 1911 (water year 1912) and 1927.
โ Peak flow on Nov. 2, 2026. โ โ Peak flow on Oct. 23, 2026. This is listed as 2027 because it occurred during the 2027 Water Year, which goes from Oct. 1, 2026, to Sept. 30, 2027.
Itโs interesting to see how the Animas Riverโs streamflows change over the course of the 45 miles or so between the Durango gage and the Farmington one. On Nov. 2, the Animas appears to have gained about 6,900 cfs over that stretch of river, while on Oct. 23 it only gained 800 cfs. A lot of this came from the two major tributaries โ Lightner Creek and the Florida River โ joining the Animas downstream from the Durango gage, along with numerous washes and arroyos adding their load.
Meanwhile, back in 1970 the peak streamflow in Farmington was 700 cfs lower than it was in Durango. Iโm not sure how to explain that one.
Hereโs some video and commentary I made at Santa Rita Park in Durango when the river was around 12,100 cfs. It would still gain another 900 cfs before peaking later that day: https://www.landdesk.org/p/live-with-jonathan-p-thompson
A slough in the west Animas Valley north of Durango. The wetlands pictured here have been mostly drylands in recent years, but filled up and saturated surrounding ground during the previous high water in late October. Now itโs rising again as torrential rains pound the region. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Itโs Sunday afternoon, the first day of November, and if tomorrow is the Day of the Dead, today is the Day of the Deluge here where I sit, a couple miles north of Durango. A hard rain has fallen relentlessly for the past 15 hours or so, only occasionally easing up for a few minutes at a time. An hour ago, the La Plata County Sheriff sent out an alert closing all county roads due to flooding conditions. While the segment of county road Iโm on remains passable, numerous other roads have shut down themselves as debris flows bring mud, silt, and high water onto the roadways.
In need of provisions, and with a journalistic desire to see what the hell was happening out there, a friend and I ventured out to find waterfalls spilling off of Animas Mountain onto the highway into town, bringing rocks and silt with them. The liquor store, abiding by the shelter-in-place order, was just closing up for the day as we arrived.
Reports poured in about flooding around town: Highway 160 just east of town had turned to a river after Lightner Creek apparently jumped its banks; Junction Creek also was flooding, affecting some homes and forcing evacuations. To the south, San Juan County, New Mexicoโs Office of Emergency Management urged all residents within a half mile of the San Juan, Animas, and La Plata rivers to head to higher ground. As the text alerts reached phones, and the serious of the situation became apparent, the roads emptied out.
So far, the flooding is mostly limited to arroyos and smaller waterways, but the major rivers continue to rise. Parts of Pagosa Springs and surrounding areas along the San Juan River are under a mandatory evacuation order as I write this, and the river is forecast to crest around 19.71 feet, or about four feet higher than the Oct. 23 peak (9,100 cubic feet per second). If it reaches that point, it will not only cause catastrophic damage, but would also be larger than the 1911 flood, making it the largest on record, by far.
Even if the river levels donโt meet or exceed those of October 1911, this autumnโs deluges are still historic. Autumn storms and floods are not uncommon in this area. But to have a succession of storms this big, dumping this much moisture, and bringing multiple rivers and streams to record or near-record levels over just a few weeks, is very unusual and possibly unprecedented, at least over the last 130 years or so. Itโs also extraordinarily challenging for those who live in the path of these rivers, arroyos, and streams โ people who are only beginning to muck out the sewage-tainted silt from the last flood a week ago.
Also somewhat freakish is the timing: Flooding on Nov. 1 is odd because typically the moisture would be falling as snow by this time of year, which would keep the moisture on the ground rather than in the streams. Yet as of Sunday afternoon, it was still coming down as rain and Schneeregen up to about 11,000 feet in elevation, melting existing snow and leading to big streamflows in high country creeks and rivers. The snow-line is expected to drop considerably later tonight, snarling travel while also creating a nice base for the snowpack. If it comes soon enough, it may even keep some of that moisture out of the streams โ at least until next spring, when itโs needed.
In the meantime, we sit and wait and watch nervously to see what the rivers will do.
Some notable streamflow data from around the region, as of Nov. 1 at about 5 p.m. (keeping in mind this is all provisional, real-time data):
McElmo Creek near the Colorado-Utah state line hit 1,610 cfs at 2:45 pm on Nov. 1, which is about 30 cfs higher than the Oct. 22 high mark.
The Piedra River near Arboles was at 16,800 cfs at 8 p.m. on Nov. 1, just 200 cfs short of its peak during last weekโs floods (when the gage was knocked out of commission).
The San Juan River at Pagosa Springs was at 11,000 cfs at 7 p.m. โ 2,000 cfs higher than last weekโs flood โ and still rising. The gage height is on track to exceed 1911โs, though itโs not yet clear that the streamflow will beat 1911โs 25,000 cfs. Either way, it will be devastating.
The Animas River at the gage in Durango was at 4,790 cfs and still rising at 4:30 p.m. At the same time, the gage just downstream (below the confluence with Lightner Creek) 7,010 cfs, indicating that Lightner Creek was somewhere around 1,200 cfs (thereโs no gage on that stream).
Thatโs nothing compared to what was going on further south and west โฆ
Oak Creek near Cornville, Arizona, jumped from 165 cfs to over 27,000 cfs in a matter of hours on Nov. 1.
The Salt River just upstream from Roosevelt Reservoir was at 107,000 cfs and rising at 5 p.m. on Nov. 1. Thatโs an insanely huge amount of water. Itโs also the third highest flow on record in over a century.
The Agua Fria River near Rock Springs, Arizona, was virtually dry a few weeks ago. Today, it reached 22,900 cfs.
The Verde River below Tangle Creek in central Arizona was at 89,000 cfs at 6:14 p.m. on Nov. 1.
Thatโs it for now. Iโll be trying to put this all into context if and when the waters subside โฆ
Pagosa Springs recorded 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, according to National Weather Service data. (Courtesy of Matthew Martin and @thisispagosa)
[Vicki] Shaffer said cellular service was down, leaving residents to rely on landline phones or internet connections to communicate. T-Mobile service was restored at about 4:45 p.m. Monday. She could not provide updated figures on the number of people rescued or evacuated, or the number of structures destroyed. Videos circulating on social media showed floodwaters carrying a home down the San Juan River and into a pedestrian bridge, destroying the structure. Another post showed part of the foundation of the Pagosa Springs History Museum building torn away by floodwaters. According to Shaffer, National Guard helicopters returned to Pagosa Springs on Monday to aid in rescue and recovery efforts. U.S. Highway 160 remained closed from both directions entering Pagosa Springs on Tuesday, as CDOT crews tended to a portion of the Piedra River Bridge which had been completely washed away from the floods…
An aerial view of Colorado Highway 151 flood damage from the previous week, between Ignacio and Pagosa Springs. (Courtesy of Colorado Department of Transportation)
State Highway 151 near Chimney Rock also remained closed because of flood damage.
Residents are being asked to conserve water because the flood levels have caused an increase in sediment levels. A town news release said residents are required to limit nonessential use to help maintain an adequate supply while treatment conditions improve. Goodall said there is no indication the townโs main drinking water supply has been contaminated, but he said officials must manage the high sediment levels, ensuring they build up a reserve of potable water. Goodall estimates residents will need to conserve water for one to two weeks or until the sediment dissipates…
He said officials were still assessing the damage of the wastewater treatment facility. In a post on Facebook, the town said floodwaters topped the wastewater treatment lagoons, causing water to overflow into and out of the ponds. The incident impacts the wastewater system, not the townโs infrastructure upstream that treats drinking water…โOur crews remain on the scene to manage the situation. Out of an abundance of caution and in compliance with safety protocols, we have already notified downstream partners, including the CDPHE, the Ute Tribe, and federal oversight agencies, to ensure a coordinated response,โ the post read. Out of safety, the town asked that people avoid contact with the Mancos River downstream of Cottonwood Park.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
Dangerous floodwaters threatened homes and communities across southwestern Colorado on Monday, causing widespread damage to towns and counties already incapacitated by flooding from rain-swollen rivers one week earlier. The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs rose to nearly 17 feet on Sunday as an estimated 3 to 4 inches of rain fell over land already saturated by heavy precipitation. The river did not hit the record-breaking 22-foot crest that forecasters expected, but the 16.81-foot crest recorded Sunday night is the second-highest on record and two feet higher than one week ago, according to preliminary data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationโs river gauges. Southern Colorado officials ordered mandatory evacuations for people living in parts of La Plata, Archuleta, Rio Grande, Mineral, Conejos and Montezuma counties, including parts of Pagosa Springs, Durango, Del Norte, Ignacio and Mancos…Sundayโs storm brought similar or slightly less rain than the storm that caused widespread flooding in the area more than a week earlier, but the water had nowhere to go, National Weather Service meteorologist Eric Petersen said. The ground was still saturated from the previous floods, unable to absorb much more, and reservoirs were already filled to the brink, pushing water downstream, said Petersen, who works in the weather serviceโs Pueblo office…
ูุญุธุฉ ุฌุฑู ููุฑ ุณุงู ุฎูุงู ู ูุฒููุง ูุงุตุทุฏุงู ู ุจุฌุณุฑ ูุฑุจ ูู ููููุฑุงุฏู (Pagosa Springs, USA) ๐บ๐ธ
Mandatory evacuation orders are also in effect for residents along the South Fork of the Rio Grande River, including in Del Norte, Monte Vista and South Fork. Part of southern Del Norte remained on pre-evacuation status. An updated evacuation map is available online. Roughly 2,773 people were evacuated, according to South Fork Fire Rescue. As of Monday morning, no injuries or missing people had been reported…The South Fork of the Rio Grande hit โmajorโ flooding of 8.88 feet late Sunday night near South Fork and held relatively steady overnight. As of Monday morning, the river was still expected to rise near Del Norte and Monte Vista, according to NOAA flood gauges.
Pagosa Springsโ water and wastewater service providers โ the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) and the Pagosa Springs Sanitation General Improvement District (PSSGID) โ suffered more than $13 million in damage to their systems in last weekโs flooding event, according to Wednesday estimates. The PSSGID suffered about $9 million in damage, stated Pagosa Springs Town Manager David Harris, while PAWSD Programs Manager Renee Lewis indicated that, on Wednesday morning, PAWSD estimated damages at $4,005,000. Lewis emphasized that this is a โVERY preliminaryโ estimate since some PAWSD infrastructure is still inaccessible. According to Harris, the PSSGID, which provides sewer service for downtown Pagosa Springs and is operated by the Town of Pagosa Springs, primarily suffered damage to all three of its lift stations, its two pumping stations on the line that moves wastewater from downtown to PAWSDโs Vista wastewater treatment plant, and to the sewer line that runs under the 1st Street bridge on U.S. 160. He explained that the pumps and electrical equipment at these stations all suffered damage due to being inundated with water and that at least some of the equipment in all these stations will likely need to be replaced. Harris stated that the pump stations on the line to Vista are currently operating with one set of dry and submersible pumps each, when they normally use two sets of pumps that alternate operations to give each set downtime. He indicated that the inundation during the flooding also led to the system overflowing raw sewage into the San Juan River once its pumping capacity was exceeded at the Vista pipeline. The forced main for the Vista pipeline handled 1.7 million gallons of water on Thursday, Oct. 22; 1.58 million gallons on Friday, Oct. 23; and 1.32 million gallons on Saturday, Oct. 24, Harris stated. He added that the pipeline usually handles about 350,000 gallons of wastewater per day…
The damage to the 1st Street bridge pipeline was due to the water rising high enough to destroy the pipe that runs under the bridge, Harris stated. Prior to the flooding, the PSSGID implemented a bypass using a flexible pipe running along the sidewalk on top of the bridge and a temporary pump on the east end of the bridge, Harris explained, which is still in operation since the normal pipe has been destroyed. He added that this incident accounts for a significant portion of the cost of the damages that the PSSGID suffered. Harris also stated that the PSSGID suffered other miscellaneous damage, including to work that was in progress to replace sections of the McCabe Creek sewer line, which is a large source of inflow and infiltration of outside water into the PSSGID system…Connor states in his update that the district will likely have to replace the exposed lines at Mockingbird Lane and North Pagosa Boulevard in the future, but that this will occur in conjunction with the county repairing the road washouts that cause the exposures. His update states that the Snowball and Hatcher Lake water treatment plants are fully operational and that the diversion on the San Juan River that provides water to the Snowball plant and its associated reservoir has been cleared sufficiently to allow water to flow into the reservoir. The San Juan water treatment plant, located at PAWSDโs offices at 100 Lyn Ave., which also contains the Vista wastewater treatment plant, was shut off before the flooding began, according to Lewis. In an Oct. 23 update to the PAWSD board, Connor also states that the Vista wastewater treatment plant โheldโ during the flooding and remains operational. He adds that the plant treated 5.7 million gallons of wastewater during the Oct. 22 and Oct. 23 flooding events. In her update, Lewis states that damage to the river and creek diversions that feed PAWSDโs water treatment plants is yet to be fully determined.
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney and Randi Pierce). Here’s an excerpt:
October 29, 2026
The San Juan River peaked at 15.02 feet at about 5:45 a.m. on Friday, Oct. 23, becoming the second highest flooding event in recorded history for the river, short of only the 1911 flood which peaked at 17.8 feet. Extensive damage was caused to roads, homes and other critical infrastructure all throughout the county…There have been no known fatalities or injuries, according to incident officials. Archuleta County Commissioner Warren Brown indicated at a community meeting on Tuesday, Oct. 27, that 800 structures in the county have been impacted by the flood, with 540 of those structures being homes…
During a joint meeting held by the Archuleta County Board of County Commissioners and Pagosa Springs Town Council on Monday, Oct. 26, Archuleta County Sheriff Mike Le Roux and Pagosa Springs Police Chief Bill Rockensock addressed the BoCC and town council, providing a review of how the community prepared and responded throughout the disaster event. Le Roux explained that the Archuleta County Sheriffโs Office (ACSO) began receiving forecasts early in the week, working with the Pagosa Weather team. He explained that based on the flooding that occurred in 2025, โWe understood what a forecast level in that flood zone would look like.โ
[…]
Le Roux explained how this yearโs flooding event was different than last yearโs, with the majority of rainfall received during last yearโs flood falling in the โcatchment area.โ He noted there was more localized rain this year.
โThe volume and intensity of rain that we received down low started creating localized flooding and which we were starting to see the impact to the community prior to the river level getting to high flood,โ he said. Le Roux explained that response crews continued working through the night on Thursday, with the San Juan River peaking the morning of Friday, Oct. 23.
โOne of the most amazing things Iโve ever seen, to be honest with you,โ Rockensock said.
While the San Juan River hit its second highest level on record, the other three rivers that run through Archuleta County experienced record flows on Friday, Oct. 23, according to National Water Predictions Service data. The Piedra River near Arboles surpassed its previous record of 6.4 feet, hitting 10.48 feet at about 5:45 a.m. The Navajo River near Chromo hit 7.8 feet at about 4:15 a.m., surpassing the previous record of 5.1 feet. The Rio Blanco near Pagosa Springs hit 5.56 feet at about 7 a.m., besting the previous record of 5.26. Late Wednesday morning, Navajo State Park reported the lakeโs current elevation is 6,045 feet โ 66.29 percent full pool. In a statement on Facebook, the park states that, on Oct. 21, the reservoirโs elevation was 6,022.
Tracked Colorado River system reservoirs in flow order, each drawn filled to its percent-full reading as of October 31, 2026. Blue Mesa (Gunnison), Flaming Gorge (Green) and Navajo (San Juan) are upper-basin tributary storage; their water reaches the mainstem through Lake Powell. Rendered at build time from the gauge record. Credit: ReservoirBench.com
โThe reservoir has risen 23 feet in 7 days!ย ย On Friday, October 23, in one day, the lake rose 8.89 feet.ย ย Unbelievable! The inflow on that day was 45,205 cfs,โ the statement reads…
Rain totals
According to reports entered into the Community Collaborative rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS), more than 6 inches of rain fell across all parts of Archuleta County fromย Oct. 22 through Oct. 26. The highest report was 6.92 inches in the eastern part of the county. A total of 6.55 inches fell south of Pagosa Springs, and 6.56 inches fell near Hatcher Lake. Totals in town ranged from 5.18 inches to 5.83 inches. Higher elevations received snowfall during that time, with Wolf Creek Ski Area reporting 20 inches of fresh snow. According to CoCoRaHS, parts of Archuleta County have received anywhere from 7.52 inches to 10.06 inches of total rainfall from Oct. 1 through Oct. 28. The October rainfall average for Pagosa Springs is 2.27 inches…
[Harris] also provided more information on estimated damage costs, indicating that the town is facing approximately $38 million in damage as of now, compared to $6 million in damage from last yearโs floods. Harris also explained that the townโs sewer system is expected to have about $9 million in damage including everything from a missing pipe on the 1st Street bridge and multiple lift stations. He noted that those lift station facilities were not able to keep up with the flood waters.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
Last week, from Wednesday, October 21 into Sunday, October 25, southern Coloradoโalong with neighboring areas of New Mexico, Utah, and Arizonaโreceived widespread heavy rainfall. Thankfully, as of this writing no fatalities or significant injuries have been reported from the resulting flooding, but the destruction has been immense. Roads have been washed out throughout the region, homes have been damaged, water rescues were needed, and recreation areas have been affected. [The Colorado Sun has been doing greatreporting on the flood impacts, as has the Navajo Times for areas downstream on the San Juan River. Jonathan Thompson at the Land Desk summarized where the streamflow ranked on various rivers.] Here, weโll look at the rainfall that led to the flooding, and make the case that this rainstorm wasnโt just unusual for this part of Colorado, but should be considered among the most extreme storms in state history.
Colorado Highway 151 washed out, between Pagosa Springs and Ignacio. Photo courtesy of the Colorado Department of Transportation.
Extreme rainfall and floods in southern Colorado
There is a history of heavy rainstorms in the fall in southern Colorado, typically with a connection to the remnants of tropical systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The โSonora hurricaneโ of October 1911 was one such storm, which led to the flood of record on the San Juan River and other rivers in the region. Just last year (2025), a similar weather system produced major flooding in southwestern Colorado. That event, which we covered in a couple of blogposts last October, was a one-two punch of moisture from a pair tropical cyclones. Even earlier this fall, the remnants of Tropical Storm Polo moved through the southwestern US and brought heavy rainfall and flooding. But by at least some metrics, the recent late-October storm appears to have topped all of these, especially in the lower-and middle elevation areas of southern Colorado.
The meteorological setup for this event was slightly different from those past cases, which had a more direct influence from the remnant tropical cyclones. The late-October event did have some influence from Tropical Storm Trudy, which formed and moved northward toward the west coast of Mexico in mid-October. Trudy then dissipated and never continued on into the US. However, some of the moisture associated with Trudy, along with generally increased atmospheric moisture in the Pacific related to El Niรฑo (more on that later), was transported northward by a very strong trough of low pressure that approached the US West Coast. So even without a direct influence from a tropical cyclone, a sustained โfirehoseโ of water vapor was aimed at southern Colorado.
How much rain fell, and where?
In terms of the total rainfall accumulation, the highest amounts were observed around the San Juan Mountains in Colorado and New Mexico, and the Abajo Mountains in southeastern Utah. Up to 8 inches of rain fell in four days at high elevations, with widespread observations of 4-6โณ at lower elevations (first map below). Where the rain amounts were most unusual, however, was in the San Luis Valley. Remember that the San Luis Valley is a very dry place: the average annualprecipitation is only 7-9โณ, and getting more than an inch of rain in a single storm is extremely rare. The San Juan Mountains to the west intercept any moisture that heads toward the valley, making a very effective rain shadow. The second map below shows that the entire San Luis Valley received more than 4 times their usual October precipitation in four days. The amounts may not look big (2-4 inches), but this type of rainstorm just doesnโt tend to happen!
Total precipitation (inches) from 22-25 October 2026 with gridded data from the PRISM Climate Group and observations from SNOTEL stations and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network.
Percent of the average October precipitation that fell in this four-day period. The San Juan River and Rio Grande are also shown in blue.
Several stations in the San Luis Valley with climate records extending back 100 years or more had their wettest two-day period on record, including Alamosa, Monte Vista, and Del Norte. (Alamosa and Monte Vista also had their wettest 3-day period.) One way to illustrate how rare a rain event is for a given area is through precipitation frequency analysis, which estimates the probability of a given amount of rain falling in any year. These are often converted to average recurrence intervals (ARIs), so that a storm with a 1% chance of happening in any year is referred to as a โ100-yearโ storm. That terminology can be misleading, because it doesnโt mean that such a storm canโt happen again for another 100 years: itโs just an average. Weโll use that terminology here because itโs simpler, but keep this caveat in mind1.
We see below that for the two-day period from Wednesday morning (21st) to Friday morning (23rd), 2-6 inches of rain fell across southern Colorado. For much of the region (light red shading on the right map below), these two-day totals represented at least a 10-year rainstorm; in parts of Archuleta County and much of the San Luis Valley it was a 100-year rainstorm, and in several parts of the SLV it was more than a 1000-year storm.
Left) Precipitation estimate from NOAAโs Stage IV analysis for the 48-hour period ending the morning of October 23, 2026. (Right) Locations with 48-hour precipitation with less than a 1 in 10 chance (light red shading), less than a 1 in 100 chance (red shading), and less than a 1 in 1000 year (brown shading) of being exceeded in any given year. (Or in other terms, rainfall exceeding a 1 in 10 year average return period in light red, 1 in 100 year in red, and 1 in 1000 year in brown. Average recurrence interval estimates from NOAA Atlas 14.
I want to highlight one observation in particular, from South Fork, Colorado, where the South Fork of the Rio Grande merges with the main stem of that river. A CoCoRaHS volunteer observer reported 4.46โณ of rain in two days, which is an astonishing amount of rain for that location, with less than a 1 in 1000 chance of happening in any given year, based on available statistics. Unfortunately, the flood damage in South Fork was significant, including at the Fun Valley Family Resort. That observer recorded another 1.15โณ of rain on the 25th, for a 4-day rainfall total of 5.64โณ
CoCoRaHS rainfall observations for October 22-23, 2026, in southwestern Colorado.
[I want to take a moment to give a word of huge appreciation to the CoCoRaHS volunteer observers throughout the region, and to particularly point out the observers around Pagosa Springs. That community has now seen two major floods in two years, and the incredible volunteer network, many of them recruited by the Pagosa Weather team, has collected a remarkable dataset documenting the details of both of those storms.]
How did the rainfall compare to last Octoberโs storms?
The map below compares the 4-day total rainfall from the recent event to the totals from the wettest 4-day period in the storms last October. In the San Juan and Rio Grande watersheds, this yearโs event had considerably more precipitation. In the San Luis Valley and extending into Archuleta County and northern New Mexico, 2-4โณ more rain fell in this yearโs storm. The exception was at the highest elevations of the San Juans and in La Plata County, where the October 2025 storm had more precipitation. At least part of this was because last yearโs event was effectively all rain, whereas the high peaks were getting snow in this yearโs storm. The flood peak on the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs was more than 2 feet higher in October 2026 than in the 2025 flood.
Total precipitation from 22-25 October 2026 minus 11-14 October 2025. With the exception of the high elevations of the San Juan Mountains, the October 2026 storm brought more precipitation across southern Colorado.
If we compare the โ1000-year rainfallโ in the October 2026 storm to past events like the September 2013 Front Range floods, this yearโs storm remarkably had even greater coverage of very rare rainfall amounts. Although the total amount of rainfall may not have been as great, considering the records broken and the spatial coverage of rainfall that was extremely rare for the locations where it fell, the October 2026 storm in southern Colorado should clearly be added to the list of the most extreme rainstorms in Colorado history. Trying to rank those storms would be very difficult, but such a list would surely include the October 1911 โSonora hurricaneโ rainfall, the June 1921 storm that flooded Penrose and Pueblo, the June 1965 storms in both northern and southeastern Colorado, the 1976 Big Thompson storm, the September 2013 โGreat Colorado floodโ, and now the October 2026 event in southern Colorado and neighboring states.
What did the storm mean for the drought?
The flip side to all of the flood damage is the benefit to the drought and water supply situation. Going back to the beginning of September, much of southern Colorado has had record-high precipitation, after a brutal snow season and a hot, dry summer. The persistent heavy rain has led to major improvements in drought. Much of southwestern Colorado is now drought-free on the US Drought Monitor, with 3 to 5 category improvements over the last two months.
Rivers in southern Colorado that were near record-low flows in the summer are now near record high flows for the fall. Some reservoirs have seen significant increases in storage as well, particularly Navajo Reservoir on the San Juan River, just across the border in New Mexico. That reservoir saw essentially no increase from snowmelt in the spring and summer, and was nearing record low levels as of early September; the recent storms gave it a huge and much-needed boost. My colleague here at the CCC Peter Goble calculated that from October 22 to 25, approximately 884,000 acre-feet of water fell just in Mineral, Hinsdale, and Archuleta Counties. And going back to the start of the rains in early September, that number would be even bigger.
Farther downstream on the Colorado River, Lake Powell has also seen a noticeable boost in storage, such that it is no longer at a record low. But this is important perspective to keep in mind: even with all the rain, it just gets Powell storage to โnot quite record lowโ. Other important Colorado reservoirs farther north, like Granby and Blue Mesa saw much less precipitation and very little increase in storage from recent storms. Going straight from flood to drought to flood might look something like โaverageโ precipitation, but it isnโt the preferred pathway to get that water. And having a lot of rain in the fall doesnโt undo the damage that was done from the drought earlier in the year (impacts to recreation, agriculture, wildfires, and on and on). So, the drought relief is substantial and welcome now, but we still need a good mountain snow season to improve the situation across Colorado and the southwestern US as a whole.
Where does El Niรฑo fit in to this story, and whatโs coming next?
As Peter outlined in this post, the fall season is when we see some of the most robust connections between El Niรฑo and precipitation in Colorado, with falls tending to be wetter than average in southern Colorado during El Niรฑo. It is quite remarkable how closely this fallโs precipitation patterns thus far match the historical correlations: on the figure below, look at how similar the green shading in the map on the left is to the areas that have seen above-average precipitation this fall!
(left) Map showing the historical correlation between El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and fall precipitation in Colorado, with areas shaded in green showing where fall tends to be wetter during El Niรฑo. (right) Percent of average precipitation from September 1 through October 27.
El Niรฑo years, with warm ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, tend to allow for more moisture to be transported into southern Colorado in the fall. El Niรฑo years also tend to have more hurricanes in the eastern Pacific (this has very much been the case this year), which increase the chances for extreme rainstorms like the ones weโve seen this fall. So thereโs a pretty clear fingerprint of El Niรฑo on this fall season. And, for both better and worse, itโs not going to slow down: another storm will affect southern Colorado this weekend, bringing more water for drought relief, but also more flood risk to the areas that have already been hard-hit. (Sunday, November 1 will see the greatest risk of more heavy rain and flooding, as well as snow at the high elevations.)
Unfortunately, the picture gets murkier as we look beyond that into the main mountain snow season. Although the fall (and spring) seasons tend to be wetter during El Niรฑo years, the signal in the core of winter is not as strong. A big snow year is certainly one possible outcome, but is by no means guaranteed.
1 Another caveat is that the rarer the precipitation amount, the less certain the recurrence interval estimates are. NOAAโs Atlas 14 and the Colorado-New Mexico Regional Extreme Precipitation Study provide uncertainty estimates around the calculations. Here weโre using the โmost likelyโ value from those calculations. โฉ๏ธ
Watching the streamflow gages for Four Corners area rivers has been astounding; seeing the images of the destruction wrought by the high waters is heart-rending. As of mid-day Monday, the rains had mostly moved on, and streamflows were continuing to drop in most areas, but the San Juan River was still running strong at 39,000 cubic feet per second (which appears to be the peak for this storm system). Meanwhile, hundreds of people were only beginning to recover from the flooding, which not only soaked homes and businesses, but also damaged infrastructure โ including sewage treatment facilities โ sending contaminated water downstream.
The rains had no more mercy on the other side of the Great Divide, where the Rio Grande and its tributaries have also flooded communities and infrastructure. The South Fork of the Rio Grande rumbled through the Fun Valley RV resort before making its way into streets and homes of San Luis Valley communities such as Del Norte. On Monday, flows were still rising at the USGS gage near Cerro, New Mexico, upstream from the Taos Gorge, indicating that the brunt of the stream surge has not yet reached riverside communities such as Embudo, Ohkay Owingeh Pueblo, or Espaรฑola.
National and regional news outlets โ along with social media weather chasers โ are all over the flooding and the damage it brought with it, although the bigger outlets havenโt deeply covered the widespread impacts on the Navajo Nation, where even heavy rains, without any actual flooding, can muck up roads and transportation for days, stranding people in remote areas. For that coverage, Iโd urge you to check out the extensive reporting at the Navajo Times.
An unexpected consequence of flooding: More natural gas flaring in the Aneth Oil Field in SE Utah.
As for the Land Desk, Iโm just trying to get a handle on how these high streamflows fit into the historical context. Itโs not easy, in part because thereโs a lot of erroneous information floating around, but also because a lot of the streamflow gages were knocked offline before their respective streams hit their peaks. And then thereโs the lack of consistent measurements and record-keeping over time.
Even so, some of the numbers are just mind-blowing. Take the Piedra River, which runs into the San Juan on the north end of Navajo Reservoir. It reached 17,000 cfs at the USGS gage near its mouth at Arboles then went offline, though it appears that it didnโt rise much higher. Peak streamflow records on this gage only go back to 1964, but still, this yearโs flow was more than twice that of the second highest, which came during the flood of September 1970.
This is the peak flow for the respective water year. Keep in mind that we have been in the 2027 water year since Oct. 1. Land Desk graph using USGS data.
The San Juan River in Pagosa flooded just over a year ago after a huge storm pounded the San Juan Mountains, setting the third highest streamflow on record (eclipsed by the 1911 flood). This yearโs flows were even higher, and slipped into the third place spot.
Land Desk graph using USGS data.
Downstream from there, the San Juan River at Carracas (just upstream from Navajo Reservoir) was raging at 13,000 cfs when it went offline on Oct. 22 (compared to 9,750 cfs in 1970). Combine that with the Piedra flows, and you have at least 30,000 cfs pouring into the reservoir, causing its surface level to shoot up more than 20 feet. Luckily, the reservoir had plenty of room for the new water following the dry summer, meaning it could hold most of it back. Had the dam not been there, the downstream flows would have been far larger, and far more destructive.
Iโve heard a few news reports say that the San Juan River at Farmington reached the highest levels on record since 1909. I canโt find any evidence that thatโs true. Although this gage went offline, a field measurement was taken on Oct. 23 at or near the peak when it was 33,100 cfs. This is still lower than was measured in 1927 and 1929. Estimates for the 1911 Flood are far higher than that (in 1916, USGS hydrologists roughly estimated a 150,000 cfs flow around Shiprock).
Had Navajo Dam not held back that 30,000+ cfs from the San Juan and the Piedra, the flow here very well could have been close to a record high.
Land Desk graph using USGS data.
Contributing to the Farmington gageโs flow is the Animas River, a San Juan Tributary. It got huge, but didnโt quite exceed the September 1970 floodโs streamflow. Measured flows in Oct. 1911 (water year 1912), 1927, and 1949 also exceeded this yearโs flow.
Iโve been told on good authority that the USGS gage just below the Animas-La Plata pumping plant is more accurate than this one (near the Swinging Bridge in the middle of town). However, I stick with this gage because it has the longest historical record of almost any gage in the region. Land Desk graph using USGS data.
After Farmington, the San Juan River continues to receive waters from multiple tributaries, including: La Plata River, Shumway Arroyo, Deadmanโs Wash, Shiprock Wash, and the Mancos River โ all swollen by rains. So by the time it reached the gage at Four Corners, it was running a whopping 54,100 cfs on the night of Oct. 24. Records on this gage only go back to 1988, so thereโs not adequate historical context for a good comparison. But itโs indisputably a huge amount of water, and set off alarm bells downstream in Aneth, Montezuma Creek, Bluff, and Mexican Hat, Utah.
Past the Four Corners gage, this veritable wall of water was supplemented by McElmo Creek (which peaked during the storm at a very large 1,590 cfs), Montezuma Creek, and Recapture Creek before reaching Bluff. After breaching a wastewater storage pond for the town of Montezuma Creek, the waters continued onward, spreading out in the floodplain near St. Christopherโs Mission east of Bluff, inundating fields and homes, and then moving into Bluffโs fringe, where it also affected structures. In a Facebook post, Bluff Mayor Josh Ewing estimated that โ17 homes and 3 businesses have extensive damage.โ
Downstream from Bluff, more tributaries add even more to the San Juan monster: Cottonwood, Comb, and Chinle washes and Lime Creek. However, by the time that pulse of upstream flows had reached this area, the rains had subsided along with those arroyosโ flows. So the USGS gage โnear Bluff,โ which is actually located at Mexican Hat, ended up peaking at 38,000 cfs 41,600 cfs on Monday at about 10:30 a.m. That actually puts this yearโs peak (WY 2027 in the graph below) at 5th place since 1915. There was no gauge here during the 1911 Flood, but a USGS paleo-flood investigation concluded that the river that year reached about 150,000 cfs.
Land Desk graph using USGS data.
All of this is good for Lake Powell, of course. After reaching a record low of about 3,516 feet in mid-September, the reservoirโs surface elevation has jumped up to 3,527 feet, and will surely rise more as this San Juan River pulse reaches it in a few days. Whether this is just a temporary respite, or a more long-term salve for the Colorado River crisis depends on whether this El Niรฑo-influenced moisture burst will continue into winter and transform from rain into the mountain snowpack on which the rivers rely.
For an in-depth look at the regionโs floods from ancient times to today, check out this (newly updated) longform Land Desk piece from the archives, available exclusively to paid subscribers. But donโt get mad at the paywall, break it down for less than a cup of coffee a month and โฆ
Screenshot from the Colorado River page on ReservoirBench.com October 28, 2026
From email from Alexander Burch:
Hi John,
Today’s Coyote Gulch post on Powell rising five feet while Mead sits at the bottom is why I’m writing. I run reservoirbench.com, a free, independent site that republishes official daily gauge readings for 135 Western and Texas reservoirs (Reclamation, California DWR and the Texas Water Development Board). Every number names the gauge it came from, each reservoir’s full daily history is a plain CSV, and every page has charts and record-low context. A few pages your readers might find useful:
Blue Mesa hit the lowest level in its daily record (back to 1965) on Oct. 19: 7,411.73 ft, about 17% full, down 51 ft in a year. https://reservoirbench.com/blue-mesa/
After last weekโs heavy rain, October has more than tripled its average monthly precipitation in Durango, according to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction. As of Monday [October 26, 2026], Durango had received 4.28 inches of rain in October alone, said Lucas Boyer, a meteorologist with the NWS. On average, October usually brings in about 1.31 inches, he said. Last October saw 4.26 inches for the entire month, which was an all-time high, he said…The average precipitation for Durango in an entire year is about 12 inches, Boyer said, but Durango has already seen just over 15 inches year-to-date. The all-time high recorded in a year for Durango is about 20 inches, he added. Even with the heavy rains from September and October, Boyer doesnโt expect Durango to hit a new maximum this year…Not only has Durango already seen 15 inches of precipitation so far this year, but more than 10 of those inches were from September and October alone, Boyer reported. September saw 6.2 inches of rain this year, about 4.4 inches more than last year, which saw only 1.8 inches of rain. The September average precipitation in Durango is 1.9 inches. This Septemberโs precipitation was more than triple the monthly average, just as October also tripled its monthly average.
Heavy rain triggered historic flooding last week across much of the Four Corners, submerging fields, homes and buildings; washing away several roads; and causing rivers including the San Juan, Rio Blanco and Animas to exceed flood stages…Areas in Archuleta, La Plata and San Juan (New Mexico) counties experienced the most severe damage, while Montezuma County avoided major destruction, according to local officials…Montezuma County Sheriff Steve Nowlin said his office received relatively few weather calls, noting the county appears to have fared better than surrounding counties. However, he noted deputies have remained busy responding to other incidents and calls. County spokeswoman Vicki Shaffer said countywide damage had been fairly minor…
Dolores Water Conservancy District General Manager Ken Curtis said precipitation has been five to six times higher than expected, while runoff has been nearly 10 times the October average. McPhee Reservoir has risen about 12 feet following a gain of 8,000 acre-feet of water in September and another 34,000 acre-feet in October. Curtis said the accumulation is unusual for this later season.
โWe are still very low. We were almost at dead or an inactive pool, so 12 feet is great, but we have a long way to go,โ he said, explaining the reservoir is still 51 feet from being full.
Click the link to read the article on the Ink Stain website (John Fleck):
October 24, 2026
The group chat among my Colorado River posse blew up again this morning as the nerds compared reservoir and stream gage readings resulting from a storm for the ages in the Four Corners.
Staring at gages, you can see the wave of water coming down the San Juan. The gage at Bloomfield blew out late Thursday night, reading 13,100 cubic feet per second (cfs) before it failed. Downstream, the wave blew out the gage at the Bolack Ranch Bridge 7 hours later, running at 17,100 cfs. By the time the USGS gage on the San Juan at Farmington blew out Friday afternoon, the river had risen to ~32,600 cfs, the most water recorded there since the 1930s and more than double the biggest peak since Navajo Dam was completed in the early 1960s.
Flooding stretched from Pagosa Springs on the San Juan River in Colorado to Dennehotso on the Navajo Nation, with what appears to be the greatest impact on human communities in the Northwest New Mexico community of Farmington, at the confluence of the Animas and San Juan rivers. (The Tri-City Record seems to be the go-to source for news out of Farmington, also Patrick Lohmann at SourceNM, local and regional journalism FTW.) The reporteveryone keeps citing in news stories, via the National Weather Service, from late morning yesterday (Friday, Oct. 23), cites Farmington-area law enforcement saying โAs many as 1500 homes and buildings are estimated to be impacted by flooding.โ Thatโs 24 hours old.
Iโm only loosely familiar with the area, and Iโm not on the ground up there, but based on the gage readings and reports from emergency managers it looks like most of the water came out of two normally dry tributaries โ Gobernador Canyon (a 111-square-mile watershed) and the much larger Caรฑon Largo (1,714 square miles). This is mostly a process of elimination โ the gage below the Bureau of Reclamationโs Navajo Dam peaked at 2,190 cfs Thursday night, which puts an upper bound on the release. Gobernador and Largo are the most plausible ungaged watersheds between the dam and Bloomfield. Also, there was a report of flooding and evacuations in Largo Wash and Gobernador Canyon Thursday evening at 5:39 p.m., less than 6 hours before the Bloomfield gage went dark. The Animas at Farmington was only adding ~8,000 cfs Friday when the gage on the San Juan hit ~32,600 cfs and stopped reporting.
One of the lessons I learned as a young journalist covering earthquakes in California is that the places identified as having the most damage from a natural disaster are not necessarily the worst-hit places. Theyโre often the places that are the worst hit and still have the ability to communicate. This is sparsely populated Navajo and Jicarilla Apache Country, and Iโd assume that the danger and the damage weโre hearing about from the population centers does not tell the full story of the suffering underway in the region.
Climate and flooding
We have three different primary kinds of flooding in the interior arid Southwestern United States: from spring and summer snowmelt; localized flooding from the summer monsoons; and autumn tropical storm remnants. Weโre now experiencing a wave of classic tropical storm remnants.
The moisture that hit the Four Corners came from the remnants of Hurricane Trudy, which skirted the west coast of Mexico Oct. 16-19. This is not a visit from the hurricane itself, but rather its remnant moisture being pulled into the storm track, providing massive moisture fuel for what follows.
A group led by Elizabeth Ritchie at the University of Arizona some years back quantified the impact these storms can have:[1]
Although the tropical cycloneโstrength winds rapidly diminish upon making landfall, these systems still carry a large quantity of tropical moisture and, upon interaction with mountainous topography, are found to drop up to 30% of the local annual precipitation.
Much like the summer monsoon, the impact of climate change on this kind of storm in the future is challenging to understand because these storms happen at spatial scales that are difficult for General Circulation Models, the big climate models used to understand the effects of rising greenhouse gases, to resolve. The coarse resolution of the GCMs tends to underestimate how much precipitation comes from the biggest storms โ this is an issue I wrote about back in my science journalism days in the โ00s. We have new higher resolution GCMs now, but they still seem to struggle with this.[2]
1Ritchie, Elizabeth A., Kimberly M. Wood, David S. Gutzler, and Sarah R. White. โThe influence of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone remnants on the southwestern United States.โ Monthly Weather Review 139, no. 1 (2011): 192-210.
2Bjarke, Nels R., Ben Livneh, Joseph J. Barsugli, Angeline G. Pendergrass, and Eric E. Small. โEvaluating Large-Storm Dominance in High-Resolution GCMs and Observations Across the Western Contiguous United States.โ Earthโs Future 12, no. 6 (2024): e2023EF004289. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004289.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
Heavy rain from the remnants of Hurricane Trudy that dumped 3 to 5 inches of rain across Southwest Colorado in about 24 hours Thursday caused the Animas River to overflow its banks and reminded residents of the risk of living in a 100-year flood plain. The swollen river reached a flow of 11,200 cubic feet per second at 2 p.m. Friday in Durango. That was nearly eight times the previous 2026 peak of 1,450 cfs, recorded May 15…Still, Fridayโs surge was less than half the riverโs highest recorded flow. On Oct. 5, 1911, the Animas River reached an estimated 25,000 cfs. And not far behind: On June 29, 1927, it reached an estimated 20,000 cfs.
The Animas River in Durango reached 8,700 feet and rising as of 7:30 a.m. on Friday. Thatโs the highest it has been since the flood of 1970 (11,600 cfs) and the 11th highest since consistent measurements began in 1911 (though itโs likely to move into 10th place later today). Further downstream, the Cedar Hill gage near the New Mexico-Colorado line was reading 10,800 cfs on Friday morning, and will likely continue to rise, with the potential for downstream flooding (it will also add to the San Juan Riverโs considerable flows).
Further downstream, the San Juan River near Bluff, Utah (actually, the gage is located closer to Mexican Hat, and is just below the confluences with Chinle and Comb washes) reached 16,200 cfs on Thursday afternoon. Navajo Dam sits between the high flows in Pagosa and this streamflow gage, so that will keep the upstream high water from increasing levels downstream even more.
A surge on the San Juan River moved toward Shiprock on Friday after two days of storms flooded homes, stranded families and forced rescues throughout the Navajo Nation. The San Juan River at Shiprock reached 17.3 feet Friday night, above the 15.5-foot flood stage, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasters expected the river to reach 20.7 feet late Saturday morning, just above major flood stage of 20.5 feet. Upstream in Farmington, the river reached 14.1 feet Friday, surpassing the previous record of 12.3 feet set in 1909. By late afternoon, the river had spread over its floodplain beside the U.S. Highway 64 bridges in Shiprock…At an earlier San Juan County briefing Friday, Navajo Police Deputy Chief Donnie Kee said the highest water was expected to reach Shiprock late Friday night or early Saturday…Police warned families along the river from Farmington west through Upper Fruitland, Nenahnezad, San Juan Chapter, Hogback and Shiprock to Montezuma Creek, Utah. Navajo Nation President Buu Nygren and Shiprock Chapter Vice President Debra Yazzie issued an evacuation alert for families near the river…The floodwater also carried raw sewage after rising water inundated the Bloomfield wastewater treatment plant upstream of Navajo communities, sending untreated wastewater into the river.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
Below is the Snow Water Equivalent in South Platte graph from the NRCS for October 26, 2026. Snowpack is 44% of the median (down 92% one week, wild swings this time of the accumulation season) and 4% of the median peak (up 1% one week). There are 181 days until the median peak. Iโve added the lines for 2026, 2018, 2012, and 2002 since the statewide drought is still very pronounced.
Below is the Precipitation Accumulation in South Platte graph from the NRCS for October 26, 2026. This morning precipitation, at the SNOTEL stations, is at 79% of the median (down 15% one week), and 5% of the water year median (up 1% one week), There are 340 days left in the water year. Iโve added the lines for 2026, 2018, 2012, and 2002 since the statewide drought is still very pronounced.
There is a slight chance for snow showers Saturday and a chance for rain and snow showers Sunday in the central mountains. There is a slight chance for showers Saturday and a chance for showers Sunday in the northern mountains. There is a chance for showers Saturday and Sunday, down here, about 439 miles from the Four Corners National Monument near where the San Juan River is raging out of its banks flooding the Navajo Nation downstream to Lake Powell which has risen 10 feet from all the water. From Wikipedia:
Hereโs a look at the Colorado 7-Day precipitation map through October 25, 2026 from the High Plains Regional Climate Center. Precipitation in the South Platte Basin along the Continental Divide of the Americas ranged from 0.00โ to 1.75โณ.
Hereโs the Colorado 7-Day percent of normal precipitation map through October 25, 2026 from the High Plains Regional Climate Center. Precipitation in the South Platte River Basin along the Continental Divide of the Americas ranged from 0% to 800% of normal.
Hereโs the most recent 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature (F) for Colorado through October 25, 2026 from the High Plains Regional Climate Center.
Below is the 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the week of October 26, 2026. Precipitation is anticipated for the mountains of the South Platte River Basin and may total up to 0.10โณ
Below are the 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, issued October 25, 2026, for temperature and precipitation, for the week starting November 2, 2026. The CPC expects above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the mountains of the South Platte River Basin.
Below is the Colorado Drought Monitor map from October 20, 2026. There were one category improvments in Larimer, Weld, Boulder, Broomfiled, and Adams counties in the South Platte River Basin. There were one category degradations in Morgan County in the basin. Drought and abnormal dryness covers 83.50% of Colorado. The South Platte Basin is experiencing Abnormally Dry, Moderate, Severe, Extreme, and Exceptional drought conditions.
Below is the Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending October 20, 2026.
Hereโs the US Drought Monitor Map from last week along with the one week U.S. change map.
โHoly crap,โ said one of my acquaintances in Colorado when I passed along the news that Colorado, during the last water year, had an average temperature of 2 degrees Fahrenheit above the previous record year of 1934. For me, it wasnโt a great surprise. I remember all too well trying to write stories in 95 degree heat during summer in my former home/office. But it was a sucker punch nonetheless…This, many have said, is clear evidence that the current warming is just part of a phase. But this new report from Colorado State University researchers speaks to just how extraordinary these times are. The report comes after the conclusion of the 2025-26 water year, which starts in October and ends in September.
โWater year 2026 was one for the record books in Colorado,โ the report says. โIt was our warmest on record by a substantial margin, and it was also one of our driest.โ
The mountain snowpack, the lowest ever, had implications across many sectors, from agriculture and wildfire to human health and recreation, the report continues. Once again, the temperatures continue to amaze. Colorado had four months โ December and January, March and August โ that were warmest ever. But 11 of the 12 months ranked among the top-15 warmest of those months on record. The researchers found that, statewide, temperatures were 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit above the averages seen between 1991-2020.
Yet another round of storms slammed the Southwest this week, wreaking havoc across the region and hitting the Four Corners Country hard. By Friday morning, the rain had let up in most places, but some rivers are continuing to rise toward flood levels. Hereโs a quick rundown of some notable impacts, then on to the hydrographs:
The Navajo Nation once again suffered major flash flooding that washed out roads or otherwise rendered them impassible. Perhaps the worst of it unfolded in Dennehetso, a low-lying community between Kayenta and Mexican Water, where the Navajo Department of Emergency Management and other agencies had to use a specialized vehicle to rescue 30 people from flooded homes.
An emergency was declared in Hurricane, Utah, after a couple of inches of rain fell in the headwaters of Gould Wash, which then partially inundated the southwest Utah community.
An evacuation order was issued for low lying areas along the San Juan River, as stream levels met and then exceeded last Octoberโs high-water levels.
The Colorado Department of Transportation closed a segment of Hwy 550 over Red Mountain Pass, CO 17 over Cumbres Pass, Hwy 160 over Wolf Creek Pass, CO 151 near Chimney Rock, and a section of Hwy 160 west of Pagosa Springs due to flooding, debris flows, and/or safety concerns. Those segments remained closed as of Friday morning at 8 a.m.
And in Heber, Arizona, a possible tornado caused widespread damage.
The Animas River in Durango reached 8,700 feet and rising as of 7:30 a.m. on Friday. Thatโs the highest it has been since the flood of 1970 (11,600 cfs) and the 11th highest since consistent measurements began in 1911 (though itโs likely to move into 10th place later today). Further downstream, the Cedar Hill gage near the New Mexico-Colorado line was reading 10,800 cfs on Friday morning, and will likely continue to rise, with the potential for downstream flooding (it will also add to the San Juan Riverโs considerable flows).
The San Juan River in Pagosa Springs hit โaction stageโ late Thursday. On Friday morning it reached 9,100 cfs and appeared to still be on the rise. That is the third highest recorded streamflow at that gage, following the flood of October 1911 (25,000 cfs) and the June 1927 flood (16,000 cfs).
Further downstream, the San Juan River near Bluff, Utah (actually, the gage is located closer to Mexican Hat, and is just below the confluences with Chinle and Comb washes) reached 16,200 cfs on Thursday afternoon. Navajo Dam sits between the high flows in Pagosa and this streamflow gage, so that will keep the upstream high water from increasing levels downstream even more.
The Little Colorado River, which gives a good indicator of conditions on the Navajo Nation, topped out at 17,100 cfs on Thursday evening. This gage has only been keeping peak streamflow records since 2003, but this level is by far the highest the river has been in 23 years (second place was 7,550 in 2012).
The Dolores River at Bedrock, Colorado, reached 4,560 cfs on Friday morning, which is the highest it has been since 2005, and the third highest since McPhee Dam started impounding water upstream in 1983.
While itโs been a bit too warm for this wet stuff to take the form of snow in the lowlands and midlands, it has left a good coating of wet, white stuff on the peaks. The Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies monitor at its Senator Beck Study Plot near Red Mountain Pass is recording 12.8 inches of snow, with about five inches of snow water equivalent. Thatโs significantly higher than what the nearby SNOTEL station is currently recording (2.8 inches of SWE).
It only now occurs to me, six years into my half century of life and of roaming around the Four Corners Country, that the predominant autumnal color of the high desert is yellow. At least this year, when wacky weather and an altered climate have shuffled the phenological calendar, that is the case. Chamisa blooming madly, wild sunflowers dancing by the roadside, once-dusty fields turned golden by hundreds of clusters of aรฑil del muerto โ indigo of the dead โ which I am told usually bloom after the monsoons in July and August.
And there, almost as if leaping from the deep cut banks of the Rio Puerto, the dazzling shock of quivering turned leaves of a cottonwood.
Stone, fencepost, and Huerfanito Peak in the San Juan Basin. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
I spend the night in a small BLM campground in the heart of the San Juan Basin gas field. The sites are nice, it has some of the most spectacular views of any campground, and itโs free โ subsidized by royalties from the gas wells that surround it. I used to have the place mostly to myself, but on this Thursday night it fills up. A couple of loners, like me, one guy in a converted school bus who probably lives here, at least until he gets rousted, a family, a German couple in a vanlife van (with German plates), who talk loudly enough that I can hear every word, and even understand a few. Theyโre headed down to Carlsbad next.
Near Angel Peak in the San Juan Basin. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
A big yellow dump truck blazes across the gravel campground road ahead of me, trailing a cloud of dust, as it hauls a load from one side of Envirotechโs land farm to the other. A land farm is where hydrocarbon-contaminated soils, like those that have been soaked by an oil or produced water spill, are taken to be reclaimed and plowed back into the land farmโs โfields.โ This one is special because Chacoโs Great North Road cuts right through the hydrocarbon-soaked fields. The owner of the facility apparently has some sensitivity and appreciation for archaeology and cultural sites, and left the โroadโ undisturbed, though it is abutted on both sides by the fields.
On this Friday morning the land farm is especially busy, my first indication that the oil and gas drilling boom in the Greater Chaco Region is back on, at least in a limited fashion. And given the number of trucks bringing in more crude-soaked soil, Iโm guessing the number of spills is increasing, too.
The activity is heaviest between Nageezi and Counselors, where the highway suddenly gets busier and a higher percentage of the traffic is made up of large white trucks, tankers, and frack-sand haulers. A drilling rig juts out from behind a piรฑon and juniper studded hill near Twin Pines. A big orange sign: SAND TRUCKS.
The renewed activity brings urgency to the fight to keep the Chaco Cultural Protection Zone intact. And yet, it offers no protection for the people who live in Nageezi, Lybrook, Counselors, Twin Pines, Ojo Encino โฆ
Outside Cuba, four hikers. Walking sticks, nice backpacks, incongruent. Then I remember the sign back at the store: Welcome Continental Divide Trail Hikers. It makes sense.
Handwritten sign along the road to Pueblo Pintado: No Dumping Trash or Dogs.
A hundred yards later a herd of goats in tight formation, brilliant white fur, shiny black fur, munching roadside chamisa.
Further on, an array of solar panels splayed out across the landscape, black and glimmering.
Building, Grants, New Mexico. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
The urban architecture of Grants and Milan, two central New Mexico towns separated only by a couple hundred yards of liminal space, seems haunted by ghosts.Not in the supernatural or the ghost town sort of way. No, these ghosts are more of an economic sort, ones that linger in the streetscapes and the townsโ strange layout.
Grants, especially, is imbued with the specter of Route 66, of the glorious time when people made their way slowly across the country in those big olโ American cars, stopping every couple hundred miles to eat dinner, have a few cocktails, stay the night, maybe even get dressed up and going dancing.
But thereโs also what came next: The three-decade-long uranium boom that was ignited when a Navajo man named Paddy Martinez found a chunk of uranium ore near his home out beyond Ambrosia Lake in 1953. Grantsโ population jumped from about 2,200 in 1950, to over 10,000 in 1960, to more than 11,000 in 1980, the boomโs peak. That growth is apparent in the architecture and the layout of the town, especially in where and how it sprawled away from the Route 66 thoroughfare and the interstate in a northeasterly direction. That probably made some sort of sense when it happened, as thatโs where there was room for the town to grow. But now it seems odd to have to drive out to the fringe, beyond the defunct carpet and furniture place, to go to the grocery store. The strip mall across the street seems especially out of place.
Of course, thereโs a much more consequential shadow from those times clouding the neighborhoods and residents of Grants and Milan, namely the toxic wraith of the uranium industry itself. Just outside Milan, 22 million tons of uranium mill tailings, remnants of Homestakeโs operations that were shuttered in 1990, sit in a mesa-like pile amid the sage and chamisa. The groundwater is indelibly contaminated and, 36 years later, cleanup continues. When I visited heavy machinery working the top of the pile kicked up huge clouds of dust. The work is potentially endless, and in recent years Homestake has turned to purchasing homes in contaminated areas to try to get out of cleanup requirements.
If youโre wondering why Homestake doesnโt just go belly up and whither away like so many other mining companies have done over the past 150 years, itโs because somewhere along the line, Barrick Gold โ a multinational firm with big mines in Nevada and elsewhere โ acquired Homestake, along with its liabilities.
Homestakeโs uranium tailings depository, which contains 22 million tons of toxic and radioactive materials. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Homestakeโs pile is just one of many toxic remnants of this areaโs uranium boom. The Grants Mining District includes some 85 abandoned and defunct once-producing uranium mines, including the giant and notorious Jackpile-Paguate, and four mill sites, which are now marked by tomblike tailings depositories.
One might think Homestakeโs long ordeal would serve as a warning to other firms looking to mine the Grants uranium belt: Best to just stay away. But no. High uranium prices and the promise of growing demand driven by a new generation of data center-powering reactors has sparked a slew of proposals for new mining projects around here. Laramide Resources is working on permitting for its La Jara Mesa underground mine on 156 mining claims, Energy Fuels Roca Honda underground mine is moving through Forest Service permitting process, and the Grants Energy in-situ extraction project is also progressing. All are being fast-tracked by the federal government.
Mt. Taylor and La Jara Mesa, where Laramide Resources is hoping to build a major uranium mine. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
The two conventional mines would sit on public lands on the lower slopes of Mt. Taylor, or Kโaweshtima in Acoma Puebloโs Keres language, a volcanic cone that juts up from the sandstone mesas on the southern end of the San Juan Basin. Its prominent position on the Four Corners Countryโs southern horizon has given it a significant role in Indigenous cosmologies. Some Chacoan structures are aligned with the peak and contain timbers from the mountainโs slopes, it remains sacred to Acoma, Laguna, and Zuni Pueblos, and is one of the Dinรฉโs four mountains that demarcate their homeland. The proposals will serve as a test of New Mexicoโs designation of Mt. Taylor as a traditional cultural property. The Grants Energy ISR project is in a sage- and chamise-strewn basin near the base of Mt. Taylor.
Grants Energy proposes to discharge up to 360,000 gallons of formation water per day into the ground here for aquifer testing related to its proposed in-situ uranium extraction project. The sight is a couple of miles west of San Mateo. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
If a triangle was drawn between the three projects, somewhere near the center would be the village of San Mateo, nestled against the lower basaltic slopes of Mt. Taylor. It was once known as the Uranium Capital of the World because of its proximity to so many mines, including the Mt. Taylor underground mine, which produced nearly 700,000 tons of uranium during its short life in the late 1980s, and for which Gulf Mineral Resources Corporation dewatered three aquifers to keep its thousands of feet of workings dry.
Other than the mine, which sits a half mile from the village, and any contamination or dry wells it may have left behind, the remnants of the uranium boom arenโt apparent in San Mateo, itself. The cluster of modest homes and gardens with a riot of pink cosmos and winter squash and dried out stalks of already harvested corn feel much like the northern New Mexico villages near Taos or in the Chama River Valley. Spanish colonial activity dates back to the late 1500s, though the San Mateo wasnโt settled until the mid-1800s. It houses a morada, or church for the Penitente Brotherhood.
Iโm sure there are plenty of people here who are rooting for the mines and their promises of hundreds of jobs and the sort of economic boost that brings more people and more strip malls, that fills up the restaurants, hotels, and bars, and awakens the dormant glory of days gone by. And who can blame them? But thereโs at least as many folks, the ones whose wells are contaminated or who are sick or lost a family member to cancer or kidney disease, who not only would like to see the mining companies go elsewhere, but who wish that the previous boom never had happened.
And then there are those who just want to move on into the future, who want Grants to thrive economically, but also as a community. I saw glimmers of this: The well-manicured parks and playgrounds lining Route 66, the busy farmerโs market in one of those parks on a Saturday morning, the hikers and bike packers stopping at local businesses that are helping to make Grants a stopping point along the Continental Divide Trail, and who are capitalizing on the communityโs proximity to Mt. Taylor and El Malpais and El Morro national monuments.
These are the ones who donโt want to be beholden to the old extractive boom bust cycle because they know that no matter how good it gets, always, always ends in abuse and then abandonment.
***
When I want to understand what life was like during the uranium boom in the Grants area, I donโt look to history books or old newspapers. Rather, I read the poetry of Simon Ortiz, of Acoma Pueblo, in the Grants Mining District. Ortiz worked in the mines and mills as a young man, and many of the poems in Fight Back: For the Sake of the People, For the Sake of the Land are inspired or derived from his time in the industry and the people he worked alongside, people from Acoma, Laguna, the Navajo Nation, or white folks from Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Colorado, or Montana, who had come to the area seeking jobs.
The poems are all insightful and give a visceral sense of the place and the time and what it was like to be an Indigenous person working in the uranium industry. Some pieces expose the ever present, underlying racism in the industry, while others indict the companiesโ greed for profit and disregard for the workers and the land. Every one is moving and enlightening in its own way, but โTo Change in a Good Way,โ a narrative poem centered on the friendship between Bill and Ida, an Oklahoma couple, and Pete and Mary, from Laguna Pueblo, is, to me, perhaps the most stirring and also illuminating of the bunch. I urge you to find it and read it, along with the other poems in that collection. All of these pieces can be found in Woven Stone, which is even available as an ebook.
Thereโs another piece of his, โIt Was That Indian,โ that manages to concisely capture the whole arc of the uranium boom in just a couple dozen lines. Iโve included it in its entirety here:
It Was That Indian by Simon Ortiz
Martinez from over by Bluewater was the one who discovered uranium west of Grants. That’s what they said. He brought that green stone into town one afternoon in 1953, said he found it by the railroad tracks over by Haystack Butte. tourist magazines did a couple spreads on him, photographed him in kodak color, and the Chamber of Commerce celebrated that Navajo man, forgot for the time being that the brothers from Aacqu east of Grants had killed that state patrolman, and never mind also that the city had a jail full of Indians. The city fathers named a city park after him and some even wanted to put up a statue of Martinez but others said that was going too far for just an Indian even if he was the one who started that area into a boom
Well, later on, when some folks began to complain about chemical poisons flowing into the streams from the processing mills, carwrecks on Highway 53, lack of housing in Grants, cave-ins at Section 33, non-union support, high cost of living, and uranium radiation causing cancer, theyโthe Chamber of Commerceโpointed out that it was Martinez that Navajo Indian from over by Bluewater who discovered uranium, it says so in this here brochure, he found that green stone over by Haystack out behind his hogan; it was that Indian who started that boom.
The San Juan structural basin is primarily in New Mexico in a corner of the Colorado Plateau. By US Geological Survey – Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the San Juan Basin Province of New Mexico and Colorado, 2002, USGS Fact Sheet FS-147-02, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5749904
Members of the Colorado Mountain Club looking west towards Grand Lake from on top of the Continental Divide. Many outdoor-oriented activities opposed the C-BT project, fearing environmental damage and the intrusion of commerce into wild Western landscapes. History Colorado Collection, 83.495.3.17
This article originally appeared in The Colorado Magazine from History Colorado.
Few visitors to Rocky Mountain National Park will ever visit the East Portal. And why would they? Located just a few miles south of Estes Park, the East Portal contains no views of snow-capped peaks or broad valleys teeming with wildlife. Instead, it is framed by low-lying hills and power lines that draw energy from water flowing out of an odd-looking tunnel and pooling into a nondescript reservoir. It is, compared to some of the areaโs more breathtaking vistas, an unremarkable landscape with seemingly little connection with the one drawing hordes of sightseers and adventurers into nearby Rocky Mountain National Park.
Yet appearances can be deceiving. Even while unsuspecting visitors explore one of the nationโs iconic landscapes, the tunnel is redirecting the natural flow of the Colorado River underneath the Rocky Mountains and out the East Portal, en route to users across Northern Colorado. Completed in 1944, the Alva B. Adams Tunnel forms the critical undermountain link in the Colorado-Big Thompson Project (C-BT), a piece of hidden infrastructure that, as you read this, is supplying water to farms and municipalities across the Northern Front Range.
Despite the C-BTโs importance, few Coloradans consider it when they turn on their showers or dig into a plate of seasonal Front Range veggies. But from 1933, when it was proposed, until 1937, when Congress approved the project, the C-BT inspired passionate support and vitriolic opposition from a range of interest groups that Coloradans today would recognize immediately.
The supportersโ side included farmers, industrialists, local boosters and scientists. In the midst of a decade characterized by drought and depression, they argued that C-BT water would rescue the regionโs agricultural economy from collapse by the simple act of moving water from a region that possessed it in comparative abundance to one desperately needing it.
First water through the Adams Tunnel. Photo credit Northern Water.
On the other side were conservationists and nature-lovers who complained bitterly that the Adams tunnel would desecrate Rocky Mountain National Park. They wrote protest letters, pamphlets, and editorials, and appeared before hearings in Congress and the Department of the Interior. Some complained that the tunnel was a commercial intrusion into a national park. They excoriated the business interests and town developers for wanting to scar a landscape set aside for preservation and the enjoyment of the American people. They worried that it would set a precedent for the exploitation of other national parks. Other conservation-minded opponents argued that the tunnel violated the need to preserve wild places for the sake of wilderness. To remove water from the woods and pump it onto the plains, they said, would be to fundamentally alter fragile western ecosystems. The war of words reached such a fever pitch that historian Donald Swain says that the C-BT offered one of the most consequential examples of water project opposition in American history.
Itโs not news that water is central to life, and thatโs especially true here in arid Colorado. Access to water and the sanctity of public landsโissues that defined the fight over the Colorado-Big Thompson Projectโresonate perhaps more than ever as climate change challenges our ability to engineer around aridity. Vitriolic discussions over water use for agriculture, for growing cities, for energy development, and for recreation are happening with just as much ferocity today as they did nine decades ago. Coloradoโs central urban strip continues attracting residents at a breakneck pace, in part due to the outdoor lifestyle afforded by such close access to public lands. Cities on the Front Range are still buying C-BT water rights from farmers…even as the oil and gas industry injects some of that same water thousands of feet into the earth to be lost to underground hydraulic fracturing.
No matter what the use, hardly anybody gets to use water in Colorado without a fight. Itโs as true today as it was in 1933, when the Colorado-Big Thompson project threatened to forever change one of the nationโs most prominent protected landscapes: the snowy peaks and verdant valleys of Rocky Mountain National Park.
Tyndall Glacier in Rocky Mountain National Park. Meltwater from the parkโs many glaciers feed water needs across Colorado. History Colorado Collection, 83.495.1.57
Origins of Conflict
Ever since goldโs discovery near Denver in 1858, Front Range residents have far outnumbered those living in the western half of the state. But eighty percent of the stateโs precipitation falls west of the Continental Divide, creating a problem for the many urban Front Range residents who live in a much drier climate. So, as Coloradoโs population grew throughout the late 1800s, it did not take long for the water-starved majority to devise methods for circumventing geographic barriers.
Grand River Ditch July 2016. Photo credit Greg Hobbs.
Moving water underneath or around a mountain from one watershed to anotherโa process called transmountain diversionโwas nothing new when the C-BT controversy emerged during the 1930s. The largest of these early projects, called the Grand River Ditch, transported water in an unlined ditch and wooden flumes to Fort Collins through an area that would eventually become part of Rocky Mountain National Park. In 1904 the Bureau of Reclamation, with sights set on a much larger diversion, suggested damming Grand Lake and then constructing a twelve-mile tunnel that could fill the ditches of Northern Colorado farmers. However, high construction costs and complex engineering tabled the project.
As water users created precedents for gravity-defying projects, conservationists developed a reputation for opposing them. The most notable example involved San Franciscoโs 1907 proposal to dam Yosemiteโs Hetch Hetchy Valley for water and power generation. Though Congress eventually approved San Franciscoโs application, the project galvanized opposition from conservation organizations such as the Sierra Club. Protesters argued that national parks existed for the beauty and enjoyment of the nation and its people and that commercial development violated those core principles.
Politicians and federal officials took note of this growing tension between water developers and conservationists, spurring them to craft laws and principles for human activities in national parks. When Congress established Rocky Mountain National Park in 1915, Franklin Lane, Secretary of the Interior, sought to ensure the legality of water projects within park boundaries. As a former attorney for the city of San Francisco, Lane played a critical role in the bruising battle over damming Yosemiteโs Hetch Hetchy Valley. Head of the vast Interior Department, which oversaw both national parks and the water project builders at the Bureau of Reclamation, Lane worried that national park designation might present too many obstacles to water development. So, the wily attorney inserted the following language into Rocky Mountainโs founding document: โThe United States Reclamation Service may enter upon and utilize for flowage or other purposes any area within said park which may be necessary for the development and maintenance of a Government reclamation project.โ
That language offered a legal justification for diverting water through the park. However, the following year Congress muddied the waters a bit. In 1916, legislators approved the Organic Act, a lengthy bureaucratic document which, among other things, established the National Park Service. According to the Act, that new agencyโs mission was to โconserve the scenery and the natural and historic objects and the wildlife therein and to provide for the enjoyment of the same in such manner and by such means as will leave them unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations.โ For conservationists and park service employees, the Organic Act was a manifesto for resistance to all kinds of commercial development. Certainly, they reasoned, dynamiting a tunnel through the length of Rocky Mountain National Park would impair the publicโs enjoyment and break the illusion of standing in an untouched wilderness.
Colorado-Big Thompson Project elevation profile map. Courtesy of Northern Water.
Circumstances brought the potential of a massive hole through the national park into public consciousness during the 1930s as Colorado suffered through drought and economic collapse. As crops dried up, an array of Northern Colorado groups came together to request that the federal government investigate the feasibility of blasting a tunnel that could divert Colorado River water through Rocky Mountain. These included five counties, all but one member of Coloradoโs Congressional delegation, editors of each of the regionโs major newspapers, a majority of local elected officials, and Front Range farmers. In 1934 the Bureau of Reclamation agreed to conduct engineering studies in advance of a project proposal. Reclamation Commissioner John C. Page followed up with a letter to Acting Park Service Director Arthur Demaray requesting entry. Demaray refused.
In a formal letter of denial addressed to Secretary of the Interior Harold Ickes, Demaray penned the opening arguments in the fight over the tunnel. He complained that engineering studies taken in the park would require test drillings, resulting in โscarsโ and โunsightly debris.โ According to Demaray, such surveys and any tunnel which might be built required constructing access roads and trails to โplaces where roads and trails should not rightfully go.โ Demarayโs letter rhetorically transformed a local irrigation project into a national issue, pointing out that conservationists had fought to keep national parks โinviolate from such projects,โ and that the proposed survey could be โan opening wedge in a hard-won wall of protection which surrounds our park system.โ In response, Ickes, a noted supporter of national parks, nonetheless authorized the engineering surveys, believing that he was obligated by the fact that water diversion projects were embedded in Rocky Mountainโs founding legislation.
Conservationists Make Their Case
Following Ickesโ approval, conservation forces quickly mobilized in opposition. Organizations such as the Sierra Club and the Wilderness Society mailed flyers to their supporters and placed ads in newspapers throughout the country. Individuals then sent dozens of protest letters to federal agencies. While some letters appear entirely original, others were variations on templates developed by conservation organizations. Many of these letters are housed at the Broomfield branch of the National Archives. In addition, nationally recognized figures in the National Park Service, directors of conservation organizations, and scientists wrote op-ed pieces in magazines and newspapers.
Their strident opposition came during a period when national parks were drawing patrons in record numbers as many sought escape from the crushing economic collapse of the Great Depression. As the federal government considered the Colorado-Big Thompson Project between 1934 and 1937, annual visitation to Rocky Mountain National Park nearly doubled to 650,000. This was motivated in part by the recently built Trail Ridge Road, which offered stunning views to motorists as they traveled across the Continental Divide between Estes Park and Grand Lake.
The arguments made by conservationists in opposition to the tunnel probably resonate with todayโs Coloradans who enjoy recreating in the stateโs public lands. Letter writers universally expressed concerns that a massive engineering project inside park borders would mar the scenery and set the stage for similar projects in national parks elsewhere. Most protesters extolled the uniqueness of the landscape inside Rocky Mountain National Park, arguing that it was the highest expression of nature and the people of the nation had afforded it the most stringent degree of protection available at the time. Consequently, only development that enhanced the scenery and natural beauty of the parks should be allowed. Many made this distinction clear when they offered support for farmersโ need for water, as long as the conduits that delivered the resource were outside of the park boundaries. Other writers expressed concerns about the declining number of wild places in America, arguing that national parks offered the best opportunity for humans to have unimpaired encounters with wild nature. Finally, many protesters viewed Rocky Mountain through patriotic lenses. They claimed that national parks existed for every American and that a tunnel would prioritize local interests over national ones.
Among the varied written protests, none received more attention than a 1936 pamphlet titled, โA Protest of Conservation Organizations Against the Exploitation of Rocky Mountain National Park.โ Its signatories included the most notable conservation organizations of the 1930s, including the Wilderness Society, the American Forestry Association, The Izaak Walton League, the Sierra Club, and the National Parks Association. They argued that the tunnel โviolates the most sacred principle of National Parks, namely, freedom from commercial or economic exploitation,โ and that if approved by Congress it would โestablish a precedent for the commercial invasion of other parks.โ
The most likely author of that pamphlet, Robert Sterling Yard, took the protest a step further, by arguing that the proposed tunnel was an assault on one among a dwindling number of wild places in America. By the 1930s, Yard was in a strong position to make this claim. As the head of the National Park Serviceโs Educational Division from 1916-1919, he promoted national parks as Americaโs โscenic masterpiecesโ which, like great art, had the potential to build a more enlightened public. For Yard, irrigation projects in national parks were akin to defacing a Rembrandt painting. So, during the 1920s, he directed much of his energy toward fighting water projects in parks such as Yellowstone, Glacier, and Grand Teton.
During the same period, Yard became increasingly concerned that parks such as Rocky Mountain were being overrun with tourists who seemed more interested in driving through than in enlightening their minds. Though not the same as boring a hole through the mountain or clearcutting a forest, Yard regarded the assault of asphalt and autos as commercial invasions just the same, since they encouraged visitors to rapidly consume landscapes while disregarding their geologic or biologic value. For Yard, blasting holes through the park and the proliferation of roads were two sides of the same coin. Both compromised the core mission of national parks.
By 1930, Yard concluded that the best way to preserve the scientific and scenic qualities of the nationโs iconic parks was to promote vast roadless tracts called wilderness areas. So, in 1935, even as the first tunnel engineering surveys were getting underway, he helped to form the Wilderness Society. According to the Societyโs first publication, wilderness areas are โvirgin tracts in which human activities have never modified the normal processes of nature. They thus preserve the native vegetation and physiographic conditions which have existed for an inestimable period. They present the culmination of an unbroken series of natural events stretching infinitely into the past, and a richness and beauty beyond description or compare.โ In short, Yard and his allies argued that the proposed tunnel would do more than deface park scenery; it would violate the fundamental laws of nature. To restore natureโs balance, Rocky Mountain needed less construction and more wilderness.
The most common protest expressed by Robert Sterling Yard and his conservationist allies was that the C-BT prioritized local needs over national ones. Yardโs Wilderness Society colleague Bernard Frank expressed that sentiment when he wrote that the national parks were areas โdedicated to the service and enjoyment of the people of the United States as a whole and not to any narrow interests of any particular locality.โ Frank later emphasized that it would be the โprimeval qualitiesโ of the park which would be compromised should local โnarrow interestsโ prevail. Letter writers Laurel and Lincoln Ellison of Montana cited national interests as well, claiming that the countryโs need for outdoor recreation in โunspoiled natureโฆshould take precedence over such local demands for irrigation and water power.โ In an editorial in the New York Times, former National Park Service Director Horace Albright chimed in with similar reasoning. He cited the five million tourists who had visited Rocky Mountain National Park since 1915, the 550,000 travelers who entered the park in 1936, and the seven-and-half million dollars spent by park visitors, arguing that the C-BT would destroy โthe natural charm of the landscape.โ He concluded that โprivate interests should give way to the general good.โ
The arguments against the tunnel put forth by conservationists resonate in Colorado today. Presently, there are forty-two wilderness areas in the state, most of which have been designated since Congress passed the Wilderness Act in 1964. Each wilderness is intended to minimize human impacts by restricting all forms of mechanized travel. In fact, four of these wilderness areas border Rocky Mountain National Park. Moreover, much of the park has been managed as wilderness since 1974. At the same time, the visitorโs desire to motor through has only increased. It took twenty years for total park visitation to hit the five million mark. Today, nearly that many people tour the park by car annually. These numbers are especially evident when spontaneous traffic jams occur at sites where elk or moose grace the roadside. Whether those scenes support or violate the conservation mission of Rocky Mountain remains the subject of sometimes heated debate.
Making the Case for the C-BT
Letโs return now for a moment to the East Portal, where Colorado River water flows out of the Alva B. Adams Tunnel and exits Rocky Mountain National Park. From there the water plunges 2,900 feet through twelve reservoirs and over one hundred miles of canals before it is available to farmers, municipalities, and businesses in Northern Colorado. In 1937, the intended beneficiaries of that water needed to address some of the arguments made by conservationists, even as they directed the debate away from the sanctity of national parks and toward economic benefit. Would the C-BT bring enough benefit to justify its price tag, estimated to be $44 million in 1937? To gain Congressional support and to counter conservationistsโ arguments that the Adams Tunnel would desecrate a national treasure, they had to make the case that the C-BT would bring substantial economic benefit to the nation.
Ralph Parshall squats next to the flume he designed at the Bellevue Hydrology Lab using water from the Cache la Poudre River. 1946. Photo Credit: Water Resource Archive, Colorado State University
Among the many people clamoring for the C-BT, Ralph Parshall stands out. While Parshall was not the loudest voice in the debate, his arguments and evidence were perhaps the most convincing. A resident of Northern Colorado himself, Parshall graduated at the top of his engineering class at Colorado Agricultural College (CACโthe forerunner of Colorado State University) in 1904. After completing a masterโs degree at the University of Chicago, he was hired by his alma mater in 1907. As a professor at CAC, Parshall engineered reservoirs, dams, and irrigation canals in Northern Colorado. Then, in 1913, Parshall took a position as an irrigation engineer with the USDAโs Bureau of Agricultural Engineering where he worked for the next forty years. While at the USDA, Parshallโs office and lab remained on the campus of CAC where he collaborated with students and faculty throughout his career.
By the time the C-BT came into public consciousness in the 1930s, Parshall was a well-known figure due to his namesake invention, the Parshall Flume. That innovation made water distribution to agricultural users more equitable wherever it was installed as it increased measurement accuracy in canals and ditches by up to thirty percent. This helped farmers to know how much water they were receiving and prevented water users from taking more than their allotted shares. By 1935, Parshall had also distinguished himself as a pioneer of snow surveys and for developing devices to remove debris from irrigation canals. Combined, Parshallโs work enabled farmers to plan their operations effectively since they could predict the quantity of water available to them. He also earned the respect of individual farmers since he frequently supervised the design and installation of his inventions on their land. Consequently, when the USDA needed a knowledgeable and well-respected figure to prepare an economic analysis of the C-BT, Parshall was a clear choice. He possessed an unshakeable reputation as a skilled irrigation engineer with intimate knowledge of the Northern Colorado landscape.
Parshallโs Agricultural Economic Summary Relating to the Colorado-Big Thompson Project came out in January 1937. It contained a dizzying array of economic data collected by Parshall and his team of researchers. They compiled statistics on value, acreage, water rights, and loan status for every irrigated farm in the region. They also collected precipitation records, breaking down the quantity of water available for every irrigation district and mutual irrigation company in the C-BTโs service area. Parshall went to pains to show how C-BT water would be an affordable and effective solution to the regionโs water woes.
Even as the data spoke loudly, Parshallโs applied understanding of Northern Coloradoโs irrigation-dependent farmers amplified statistics. Aware that a massive Reclamation project might be viewed as a government handout in the midst of the Depression, Parshall characterized the regionโs farmers as โhardy, self-reliant American farmers and townspeopleโ who needed additional water to โstabilize the present economic achievement and make secure the possibilities of future progress.โ In a nod to popular Depression-era programs, Parshall stated that the guarantee of sufficient water would be like โsocial securityโ for existing farmers, enabling them to gain the same security in their later years that working class Americans received. Seeking to demonstrate that the C-BT was a difference maker, Parshall argued that its greatest value would be that its flows would be available late in the growing season, when some water users ran out of water and when an additional application of water to high value crops might make the difference between breaking even and crushing debt. In stark financial terms, Parshall stated that irrigation provided $64 million worth of property value to Northern Colorado, a region valued at $200 million. This additional property value resulted in local, state, and federal taxes that could be invested in schools, infrastructure and economic development.
In Parshallโs analysis of the seventy years of irrigation in the region prior to 1935, he concluded that land values were high because of โgreater assurance that crops will be produced and the possibility of growing crops of higher value than could be grown without irrigation.โ According to Parshall, the economic gains made possible by irrigation were far higher than the C-BTโs estimated $44 million price tag. But Parshall extended his analysis far beyond the farm, arguing that prosperous Northern Colorado farmers supported the growth of local businesses, increased railroad traffic, enabled more construction, strengthened financial institutions, and made possible the sort of increased highway traffic that carries with it travelers and tourists eager to spend their money in local businesses.
Sugar beets back in the day. Credit: UC Berkeley
Knowing that C-BT opponents might argue that the nation was suffering from too much agricultural production, Parshall turned that caution on its head by claiming that more water would shift agricultural production away from crops grown in surplus and toward crops not grown in sufficient quantities. For example, he argued that wheat, whose national supply had far outstripped its demand, was a crop of choice in Northern Colorado only when water was in short supply. By contrast, sugar beets, the most lucrative crop in the region, demanded more water than wheat. Yet, the majority of the nationโs sugar was imported. Consequently, according to Parshall, increasing Northern Coloradoโs water supplies would push farmers to grow more beets and less wheat, thus aligning the nationโs agriculture more closely with consumer demand and reducing dependency on foreign sugar. Parshall concluded that the C-BT would support self-reliant, productive Americans who created real economic value that extended to the nation. In short, the C-BT was an overwhelmingly good investment.
No entity agreed more with Parshall’s assessment than Great Western Sugar, the nationโs largest supplier of domestic sugar and Northern Coloradoโs most important economic driver. Great Westernโs factories depended on the same water as the farmers who sold the company its beets. Moreover, as a late arrival to the region, its junior rights werenโt secure. In fact, during the 1934 refining campaign, the companyโs ditches ran dry, and it had to beg local irrigation companies for water to complete its operations. So, the company always craved more water, either by cultivating relationships with its growers or through projects such as the C-BT. To energize local C-BT support, Great Western made liberal use of its grower magazine, Through the Leaves. In it the company published reader-friendly versions of scientific articles showing how their beet harvests would increase with just a little more water. In 1936, the company said it more explicitly: C-BT water would result in an average annual income increase of $400 per grower.
To make the national case for the C-BT, Great Western employed lobbyists in Congress. This was nothing new since the company had always pressured legislators to enact high tariffs against foreign sugar. In 1937, those lobbyists shifted from taxes to water. Great Western also took to the airwaves to make its case. In cooperation with other western beet sugar companies, it paid the National Broadcasting Company (NBC) to do a series of short radio programs titled, โSugar Beets Tell the World.โ The broadcasts emphasized how sugar beets grown in the irrigated regions of the West contributed to the American economy, providing figures on grower income, railroad shipments, resources used in refining beets into sugar, and the varied ways beet sugar was consumed. To hear Great Western tell it, beet sugar was essential to the American economy, and the C-BT was essential to the beet sugar industry.
Ultimately, the arguments made by Ralph Parshall, Great Western Sugar, and supporters of the C-BT proved successful. After spirited debate in June and July of 1937, Congress passed bills approving the project and authorizing an initial $900,000 in funding. The following year, prospective water users signed a contract to pay a maximum of $25 million over the course of forty years for the project, with the remainder of the costs being paid for by hydroelectric power generation. That $25 million cap turned out to be quite a bargain. When Reclamation finally completed the C-BT in 1957, total costs had soared to over $160 million.
Conservation, Cattle, and Water
The completion of the C-BT in 1957 heralded shifts in Northern Coloradoโs agricultural landscape that would make the region look familiar to the present-day observer. Former Colorado Agricultural Commissioner Don Ament recently reflected on some of these changes while talking about his familyโs long history in the region. During the 1930s, Amentโs family emphasized sugar beets on their irrigated lands near Sterling. As Ament transitioned into farming for himself in the 1950s and 1960s, he shifted from sugar beets to corn. As he explains, the C-BT played a critical role in the move to corn, a crop that required more water. More importantly, Amentโs well-watered corn found a ready market in the growing commercial cattle feeding industry. By 1970, Northern Colorado possessed the worldโs largest collection of commercially fed cattle, and the regionโs farmers cultivated most of their feed. Today, this is still true. As Ament points out: โtwo-thirds of Coloradoโs agricultural output is livestock, primarily cattle.โ Most of those animals are fed with corn from farms irrigated by C-BT water.
Don Ament (right) at a Colorado Foundation for Water Education (now Water Education Colorado) event May 2016.
If the C-BTโs story in the 1960s and 1970s revolved around agricultural possibilities through increased water, the projectโs story today is about growing municipal demands for water. During the 1950s, Northern Colorado possessed a population of fewer than 200,000 mostly rural residents. The 2020 census shows that the regionโs population today is well over one million, with the majority concentrated in cities within thirty miles of the Front Range. Each of the cities receives an allocation of C-BT water for residential use. In support of this shift, the Bureau of Reclamation built new storage reservoirs and increased the capacity of existing ones, while extending water supply lines to previously underserved areas. This has led to increased tensions between municipalities and farmers over selling water rights. During the last thirty years, Northern Waterโthe agency that administers the C-BTโagreed to supply water to cities outside of original C-BT boundaries such as Broomfield, Superior, Lafayette, and Louisville. Other cities, such as Thornton, have been more aggressive. In 1986, to accommodate aggressive growth, it paid $55 million to buy up more than 20,000 acres of farmland and the associated water rights in Weld and Larimer Counties. All of this adds greater pressure to conserve remaining supplies.
One of Monfort of Colorado’s feedlots, ca. 1970. Its pens could hold up to 100,000 steers. Courtesy of Greeley Museum.
For conservationists, the unsuccessful fight to block the construction of the Alva B. Adams Tunnel through Rocky Mountain National Park turned out to be just the first in many battles over water projects within the Colorado River watershed. During the early 1950s, Congressional legislators proposed a series of large-scale projects called the Colorado River Storage Plan, to be constructed for irrigation, power, and flood control at various locales along the river. The most controversial piece of the plan involved constructing two dams along the Green River, within the boundaries of Dinosaur National Monument. In opposition, conservationists, led by the Sierra Club, undertook a massive publicity campaign that successfully removed the dams from the bill. However, it came at a cost as conservationists made a deal to withdraw their opposition to another project dam in a little-known area of sandstone cliffs rich in Native American artifacts known as Glen Canyon. In 1963, that dam was completed creating Lake Powell, which dams the Colorado, San Juan, Escalante, and Green Rivers. Presently, drought, climate change, and water demands have reduced Lake Powell to one-quarter of its capacity, prompting some conservationists, scientists, and others to call for tearing down the dam holding it back.
If there is a single thread that ties together the water and conservation issues of the 1930s with those of the present, it is that the process of moving and storing water is value-laden. For 1930s farmers in Northern Colorado C-BT water was money, since accessing sufficient water at a reasonable price during the Depression would support increased crop production. For conservationists, the cost of the water was too dear, since it would defile one of the most iconic landscapes in America, setting a precedent for the commercial exploitation of other national parks. Both sides tried to answer questions about the relative value of our natural and scenic resources. Those questions are as pertinent today as they were back then.
Michael Weeks
Michael Weeks
Guest Author
Michael Weeks is a lecturer in the Department of History and Political Science at Utah Valley University. He is the author of Cattle Beet Capital: Making Industrial Agriculture in Northern Colorado, which tells the story of how Greeley evolved from a planned agricultural colony to become the worldโs epicenter for commercial cattle feeding.
Colorado transmountain diversions via the State Engineer’s office
During a meeting held by the Archuleta County Board of Health (BoH) on Sept. 17, the board heard from Water Quality Manager Jessica Green about potential changes to the countyโs regulations involving on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Green commented that the OWTS program โhas been pretty overwhelmingโ for staff since the beginning of the year…Green explained that the inspection ensures the condition of the system is evaluated at the point of a property title being transferred, โwhich prevents failing systems from being sold without disclosure of risk.โ
She also explained that it provides oversight with higher-risk properties through existing exemptions, adding that the state does not define what exemptions are possible and that the county can adjust those exemptions to meet its needs…Green โstronglyโ recommended that the BoH keep the transfer-of-title program, noting that there is a $115 permit cost associated with the program. She added that if the BoH chooses not to keep the program, there would be a risk that failing systems could be transferred to new property owners without knowing there is an issue.
Land Desk graphic using data from the Bureau of Reclamation.
Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):
October 9, 2026
๐ DEADPOOL DATA DUMP ๐
Lake Powell, the nationโs second largest reservoir, serves as a sort of barometer of the Colorado River watershedโs overall health. The reservoir and river have been struggling since the great aridificationโs grim onset in 2002. While the river continues to flow, barely, the 2026 Water Year, characterized by one of the worst snow droughts on record, nearly finished off the reservoir. But in the end, it was saved from dropping to โde facto deadpoolโ by heavy rain at the beginning and end of the water year, and by larger-than-normal releases from upstream reservoirs.
4.46 million acre-feet: Total Lake Powell inflow from the Colorado, Dirty Devil, Escalante, and San Juan rivers in water year 2026. Thatโs the third lowest on record, behind 2002 and 2021. This is in spite of the fact that the 2026 snowpack was far lower than those two years, and melting mountain snowpack provides about 80% of the riverโs water.
The Colorado River Basinย experienced its warmest water year on recordย (in 131 years) in WY2026.
3.72 million acre-feet. Total Lake Powell unregulated inflow in water year 2026. This is the estimate of how much water would have flowed into the reservoir without any supplementary releases from upstream reservoirs. Which is to say, the feds robbed Flaming Gorge, Navajo, and Blue Mesa of about 750,000 acre-feet to save Powell from shrinking even more. That was bad for those upstream reservoirs and the irrigators, anglers, recreational users, and communities that rely on them, and thereโs no way it can be repeated if this winter is below average.
6 million acre-feet: Total releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2026. This is the lowest release since the very early days of the dam (in the 1960s). This means less water in the Grand Canyon and less water flowing into Lake Mead.ย
181,111 acre-feet: Estimated amount of water that evaporated from Lake Powell in water year 2026. This is equivalent to more than half of Nevadaโs total annual allotment from the Colorado River.ย
1.72 million acre-feet: Lake Powellโs water deficit โ or the difference between outflows (incl. evaporation) and inflows โ for water year 2026.ย
27 feet:ย Amount the surface level of the reservoir fell in water year 2026, putting it within seven feet of the level the federal governnment has chosen to โdefend,โ meaning theyโll pull out all the stops to keep it from dropping below that (for reasons the Land Desk has gone over many times before). The late September storms brought the level back up a couple of feet.
Anyone who lived through the 2002 water year probably thought it couldnโt possibly get any worse. Then along came 2026 and, voila! It was really, really bad โ at least as far as the snow goes. And snow is really important, because it provides about 80% of the Colorado Riverโs flow.
But whatโs this? The accumulated precipitation in 2026 was actually โฆ not bad? Notice the big jumps at the very beginning of the water year (far left on the graph) and the very end.
THE NEWS: Not one, but two natural gas pipelines ruptured and erupted in flames at nearly the same time on opposite sides of New Mexico. One was in the Permian Basin in Lea County, where a gas line ruptured and caught fire, killing two people. Details of the incident have not been released, nor have the names of the victims. The other was near La Boca, New Mexico, just south of the Colorado line (and can be seen in the video above). It shot flames high into the sky and ignited a wildfire.
THE CONTEXT: Several years ago, as the oil boom in the Greater Chaco Region in northwestern New Mexico was nearing its peak, I sat down in the sleek, modern headquarters of the Bureau of Land Managementโs Farmington field office with two BLM officials to talk about the oil boom. Before we got down to business, one of them asked: โShould we show him the scare map?โ
The answer, I guess, was yes, because her colleague handed me the paper showing every well ever drilled in the San Juan Basin, with little red dots for gas, black ones for oil.
It was scary. The northern and central sections of the Basin were almost solid red; in the south and west, dense swarms of black dots strung out along the oil-bearing formations. Dark pinpricks surrounded Chaco Culture National Historical Park. Huerfano Mountain, or Dzil Naโoodilii, where First Woman and First Man and then Changing Woman lived โ a sort of Garden of Eden in Navajo cosmology โ was embroidered with red and black. The BLM office we sat in, on a fine piece of real estate in the upper-class part of town, has three wells within a quarter mile, and a pumpjack grinds away right next to a golf course green down the road.
To find a stretch of land anywhere in the core of the Basin that hasnโt been drilled or isnโt covered by roads, tanks, pipes or some other hydrocarbon-related infrastructure is nearly impossible โ the infrastructure is the landscape. โWeโve got so much pipeline in the ground, itโs like rebar,โ said the official, with a tinge of glee. โIf you had an earthquake, the ground wouldnโt even shake.โ
The official seemed less disturbed than simply fascinated by this fact, and also didnโt seem bothered that he and his colleagues were facilitating even more infrastructure by handing out drilling permits by the dozen and clearing the way for thousands of new wells and all the roads, gathering systems, and pipelines that go with it.
The San Juan structural basin is primarily in New Mexico. By US Geological Survey – Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the San Juan Basin Province of New Mexico and Colorado, 2002, USGS Fact Sheet FS-147-02, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5749904
I happen to be writing this at a campsite in the heart of the San Juan Basin gas field. While I can gaze out across the landscape and see nothing but beauty, including the eveningโs last light on Dzil Naโoodilii, I am constantly reminded of the ubiquity of the hydrocarbon infrastructure all around me. From just over a little rise comes a slightly squeaky and clanky sound of inadequately lubed bearings, and the low hum and whir of dozens of near and distant pumps and compressors and fans serenades me as I watch the stars unfurl across the big bowl of the sky.
Thereโs another map of this area thatโs even scarier than the one those folks showed me. It includes oil and gas-related โincidents,โ which is to say ruptures and spills and explosions and fires and major leaks. Those, too, are all over the map, and happen with disturbing frequency. Usually theyโre not as dramatic as the two explosions, but they can be harmful: hundreds of gallons of crude oil sloshed onto the ground and into waterways or aquifers, thousands of cubic feet of methane wafting into the air and adding the potent greenhouse gas to the atmosphere.
When I watch the debate over permitting reform, or read the thoughts of the Abundance crowd, a part of me agrees with the credo of building more. The idea of a new New Deal appeals to me, if done right. Line the highways and interstates with high-voltage transmission lines to carry clean energy across the region, build utility-scale solar on reclaimed coal mines and next to old coal plants and on marginal farmland, build factories to manufacture solar panels and batteries. It would create jobs, revitalize economies, and put more clean energy onto the grid.
Then I hear news about these explosions, look at the oil and gas incident map, and come out here and find that I canโt take a picture of spectacular and sacred landscapes without a tank or well or road or drill pad showing up in it, somewhere. The Abundance folks and the proponents of the permitting reform legislation, or the Bipartisan Affordability and Jobs Act, want to cover the landscape and our communities with even more of this stuff. While many of them support the bill because it would expedite clean energy development, they donโt mind the fact that it would do the same for natural gas and oil and petroleum pipelines. And, in the social media wars raging over this bill, they discount the concerns of environmental groups worry about the cost we pay when blindly adhering to the credo of Build More Stuff.
It makes me want to bring these folks out here to the San Juan Basin and take a little walk across this landscape, which is so suffused with beauty, but also cluttered with the detritus of societyโs urge for more, always more.
๐ธ PARTING SHOT ๐๏ธ
Angel Peak in the San Juan Basin at sunrise. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Click the link to read the report on the Getches-Wilkinson Center website (Eric Kuhn,*ย Anne Castle,โ ย Jack Schmidt,โกย Kathryn Sorensen,ยงย Katherine Tara**). Here’s the Introduction:
October 6, 2026
SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS
In 1956, Congress authorized the Upper Initial UnitsโFlaming Gorge Reservoir, Navajo Reservoir, and the Aspinall Unit (UIUs)โfor a variety of water use purposes in the Upper Colorado River Basin, including compliance with the 1922 Colorado River Compact (1922 Compact). The historical record is clear that the primary reason these reservoirs exist is to satisfy the math of the 1922 Compact and the obligations it imposed on the Upper Division States regarding flows at Lee Ferry.
The size and operation of the UIUs was based on the math of the river as we understood it from the 1930s through the mid-1950s (natural flows, projected uses, and the drought of record). This math no longer works. Total water use in the Colorado River Basin has consistently exceeded the available supply since 2000. Until this fundamental problem is solved, releasing water from the UIUs only delays necessary permanent reductions in water use and provides some degree of temporary management flexibility.
The 1948 Upper Basin Compact contemplates delivery of a required quantity of water at Lee Ferry. Article V gives the Upper Colorado River Commission (UCRC) the authority to allocate the capacity of the UIUs between providing water for use within the Upper Division States and providing water for common benefit purposes (delivering water to Lee Ferry). The policy has always been that 100% of the capacity of Navajo Reservoir is allocated for water use in New Mexico and 100% of the capacities of Blue Mesa and Flaming Gorge Reservoirs is allocated for common benefit purposes.
There is no doubt that Flaming Gorge and Blue Mesa Reservoirs exist to meet a portion of the obligation of the Upper Division States under Article III of the 1922 Compact. As of October 1, 2026, the ten-year Lee Ferry flow will be about 81.2 million acre-feet (MAF), and under the Lower Division Statesโ interpretation of the 1922 Compact, the Upper Division States may be in a compact deficit by 800,000 acre-feet (or more).
Yet over 2.0 MAF of water remains in active storage in Flaming Gorge Reservoir; more than enough water to erase the deficit and put the Upper Division states back in compact compliance as interpreted by the Lower Basin, if only for the short term.
The Upper Division States assert that they are in full compliance with the 1922 Compact.ยน Thus, in their view, delivering additional UIU water to Lee Ferry now would be a waste of stored water that they may need in the future. They question why yet another reservoir should be further drawn down when the Basin has not solved the fundamental problem of demand exceeding supply.
The stored water available in Flaming Gorge Reservoir has increased in importance to the entire basin. The Lower Division states view it as a source of water that can be delivered at Lee Ferry to supplement the releases from Lake Powell and thereby fulfill the obligations of the Upper Division States under the 1922 Compact. The Bureau of Reclamation is using Flaming Gorge as a source of water to protect critical infrastructure at Glen Canyon Dam, including hydropower generation. The Upper Division States view Flaming Gorge as a source of water for their current and future benefit; the water stored there could be used to comply with an adverse decision by a court or Special Master.
There remain unresolved issues concerning the use of water stored in the UIUs, with seemingly conflicting provisions in the 1948 Upper Basin Compact and the 1970 Long-Range Operating Criteria that currently govern the operation of these reservoirs. These issues could govern future releases from the UIUs but have not been explicitly addressed in the Post-2026 Record of Decision or the 2027-2028 Operating Rules.
The math of the 1922 Compact and its Lee Ferry flow provision, together with the directives of the Long-Range Operating Criteria, can no longer be reconciled with todayโs hydrology and long-term average basin-wide consumptive use. The Basin States can argue about compliance with various conflicting provisions, but the fundamental problem is that the rules were designed for a different river. We need new operating rules that reflect the river we have today. The choice in finding these new rules is likely to be between a compromise that is painful to all parties or a zero-sum Supreme Court decision that determines who gets what little water there is and who does not.
INTRODUCTIONยฒ
The 1956 Colorado River Storage Project Act (1956 CRSPA)ยณ authorized construction of Glen Canyon Dam, which created Lake Powell, and three additional major upstream storage projects; Flaming Gorge Dam and Reservoir, Navajo Dam and Reservoir, and the Curecanti Unit (Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, and Crystal Dams and Reservoirs, now called the Aspinall Unit). The 1956 CRSPA was designed as a broad authorization for Upper Basin water development within the bounds of the 1922 Compact. The legislation authorized construction of storage dams, powerplants,โด numerous irrigation projects, and trans-basin diversions. Among the purposes of 1956 CRSPA were โregulating the flow of the Colorado River, storing water for beneficial consumptive use, making it possible for the States of the Upper Basin to utilize, consistently with provisions of the Colorado River Compact, the apportionments made to and among them in the Colorado River Compact and the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact, respectively . . ..โโต Flaming Gorge, Navajo, and the Aspinall Unitโถ are collectively referred to as the โUpper Initial Unitsโ (hereafter, UIUs). The three UIUsโ total live storage capacity is 6.15 million acre-feet (MAF), of which 5.10 MAF is โactiveโ storage.โท On October 1, 2026, the total live storage in the three reservoir systems was 3.47 MAF. The Appendix contains a detailed description of each of the UIUs, with information on capacity, operations, and contract obligations.
For over 60 years, the three UIUs have been storing system water and producing hydroelectric power. These reservoirs, however, previously played a relatively small role in the operation of federal reservoirs of the Colorado River Basin (Basin) as a whole. The focus of the Basinโs competing interests has primarily been on operation of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam that form Lake Powell and Lake Mead, respectively. These two reservoirs are the largest in the United States and presently store approximately 66% of all the water in the 12 federal reservoirs reported in Reclamationโs 24-Month Studies. During the debate and development of major policy actions for the Colorado River, such as the 1970 Coordinated Long-Range Operating Criteria,โธ 2001 Interim Surplus Guidelines,โน and the 2007 Interim Guidelines,ยนโฐ the operations of the UIUs were barely mentioned. However, as storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead has declined, the importance of the UIUs has increased.
The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates each of the three UIUs under separate Records of Decision (ROD). Each is operated in a manner that balances many competing interests such as: storage for 1922 Compact compliance, the delivery of stored water for Upper Basin consumptive uses, the delivery of water in fulfillment of Tribal water right settlement obligations, flood control, hydropower generation, on-reservoir recreation, downstream river recreation, sport fisheries in the reservoir and in the stream below the reservoir, and the flow needs of threatened and endangered fishes. Reclamation operates the UIUs in a transparent manner, and each has a local constituency that is closely involved in how their project is operated.
The UIU obscurity honeymoon ended in 2019 when the Upper Division States proposed what became the Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA) as a component of their 2019 Drought Contingency Plan.ยนยน Arguably, under federal law, the Secretary of the Interior (Secretary) has broad authority to unilaterally move water from the UIUs downstream to Lake Powell. However, Reclamation took a more collaborative approach in the DROA: it was an inter-governmental agreement among the US (through Reclamation) and the states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. DROA authorized releases from the UIUs to the extent necessary to achieve the stated operational objective of minimizing the risk of Lake Powell falling below a target elevation of 3525 ft, and thereby:
helping to ensure the Upper Division States will continue fulfilling their interstate water compact obligations while exercising their rights to develop and utilize the Upper Basinโs Compact apportionment,
maintaining the ability to generate hydropower at Glen Canyon Dam, and
minimizing adverse effects on resources and infrastructure in the Upper Basin.ยนยฒ
DROA is subject to numerous constraints, including:
Water available in the UIU reservoirs,
Protection of authorized purposes of each CRSP unit (water supply, endangered species, recreation, hydropower, etc.),
Consultation with the Upper Division States and the Upper Colorado River Commission, and
Operating criteria established in the agreement and the associated Records of Decision.
In 2021, a total of 181,000 acre-feet of DROA releases were planned pursuant to the Secretaryโs emergency authority: 125,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge, 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa, and 20,000 acre-feet from Navajo. Due to dry conditions, the 20,000 acre-feet release from Navajo Reservoir was cancelled, resulting in a total release of 161,000 acre-feet.ยนยณ DROA was implemented again in 2022 pursuant to consultation and agreement with the Upper Division Statesโapproximately 463,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir were released. Both releases were intended to help maintain an operational target elevation of 3525 ft in Lake Powell.ยนโด The DROA water released from Flaming Gorge Reservoir and Blue Mesa Reservoir in 2021 and 2022 was completely recovered after the moderately wet winter of 2023.ยนโต DROA includes specific provisions addressing storage recovery after a DROA release is made. DROA expires contemporaneously with the 2007 Guidelines, but operations to recover storage releases made before Oct. 1, 2026, continue for as long as necessary.ยนโถ
In response to the near-record low 2026 runoff and the unprecedented low reservoir levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, DROA releases were again implemented to supplement Lake Powell levels, and this time with even greater urgency and impact. To help maintain the elevation of Lake Powell above 3500 ft, on April 23, 2026, Reclamation began making additional DROA releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir.ยนโท According to the September 2026 24-Month Study, the planned release from Flaming Gorge will total one million acre-feet between April 2026 and April 2027, but Reclamation retains the flexibility to adjust the timing and amount based on actual hydrologic conditions. Citing contractual obligations and unusually low storage, there are no planned DROA releases scheduled for 2026 from either Blue Mesa Reservoir or Navajo Reservoir.ยนโธ
As annual Colorado River Basin runoff in the 21st century is consistently lower than in the 20th century and the โRatchet Effectโ is evident in reservoir storage basin-wide, disputes over the operation of the UIUs between the Upper Division States and Lower Division States have increased and indeed now are nearly as critical and strident as the disputes over water deliveries from Lake Powell to Lake Mead.ยนโน The Lower Division Statesโ May 1, 2026, Proposal for Short-Term Operations of the Colorado River included proposed operating criteria for the UIUs that would expand their role in maintaining Lake Powell elevations and effectively subordinate the refilling of the UIUs until there is sufficient water in Lake Powell to support the delivery of 8.23 MAF per year.ยฒโฐ The stated intent is โto share the benefit of improved hydrology between both basins.โยฒยน On May 13th, 2026, the director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources told the Arizona Re-Consultation Committee that under Arizonaโs interpretation of the Law of the River, the 1956 CRSPA specifically subordinates the delivery of contract water from the UIUs and the refilling of those reservoirs to water deliveries to the Lower Basin and Mexico under the 1922 Compact.ยฒยฒ
The Upper Division States believe the operation of the UIUs proposed by the Lower Division States is outside the scope of the Post-2026 NEPA process and cannot be incorporated into the Record of Decision as part of the 2027โ2028 operations plan.ยฒยณ Further, some UCRC commissioners pointed out that under the 1956 CRSPA, there are multiple purposes of the UIUs including supporting consumptive uses within the Upper Basin.ยฒโด At the 2026 Getches-Wilkinson Center Conference on the Colorado River, then-Acting Reclamation Commissioner Scott Cameron noted that Reclamation would aggressively operate the UIUs under their RODs to help manage Lake Powell levels, but added that the Secretary has, and will use, if necessary, emergency authorities to operate the UIUs outside the bounds of their RODs.ยฒโต
The Record of Decision (ROD) released on August 21, 2026, for the “Decision Framework for Colorado River Guidelines: Coordinated Operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead (2027โ2036)” addressed the operation of the UIUs in a general manner. The ROD states:
โIn carrying out the Decision Framework, the Department will continue to coordinate the operation of Lake Powell, Lake Mead, and the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) Upper Initial Units โ specific reservoirs above Lake Powell โ pursuant to Section 602 of the Colorado River Basin Project Act of 1968 (CRBPA). Consistent with each facilityโs existing ROD, the CRSP Upper Initial Units remain an operational tool available to the Secretary, when necessary, to release additional water to increase the elevation at Lake Powell to protect critical Federal infrastructure.โยฒโถ
While the Decision Framework Operational Sideboards of the ROD include the โPotential for maximum use of CRSP Upper Initial Units within their respective RODs to release additional water if needed to protect critical infrastructure,โ they also allow for greater releases than described in their respective RODs:
“The Decision Framework establishes consultation thresholds associated with critical reservoir elevations. When projected reservoir conditions approach or fall below the consultation thresholds identified in the operational sideboards, the Secretary will coordinate and consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes and other affected parties, as appropriate, regarding additional operational actions that may be appropriate to reduce risks to critical Federal infrastructure and maintain system reliability.ยฒโท”
Further, โSuch consultations may include consideration of additional reductions in water use, adjustments to coordinated reservoir operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, use of the CRSP Upper Initial Units, or other operational actions.โยฒโธ
Notably, the Decision Framework does not mention using the UIUs for making deliveries of water to Lee Ferry when there is insufficient water in Lake Powell for compliance with the 1922 Colorado River Compact (1922 Compact).
UIU storage recovery timing and amounts are not specified in the 2027-2028 Operating Guidelines,ยฒโน but Interiorโs response to the Lower Basinโs May 1st proposal stated that it:
“intends to refill the UIUs as soon as practicable to ensure water remains available for any additional infrastructure protection releases, while avoiding further risk to critical infrastructure during recovery operations. Based on prior operational experience, recovery operations were initiated once Lake Powell was no longer projected to continue declining. Reclamation would apply a similar approach for future UIU recovery operations and would consider actual hydrology and Basin-wide conditions before initiating recovery actions.ยณโฐ”
What is clear is that the water stored in the UIUs is an increasingly important resource coveted by the Upper Division States, the Lower Division States, Basin Tribes,ยณยน and Reclamation. It is also clear that each of these entities has a different perspective on the priorities under which the UIUs will be operated in the future. But it is important to recognize that while the water released by the UIUs in 2021, 2022, and 2026 provided critical benefits, especially for maintaining Lake Powell above target thresholds, DROA-like releases are not a solution to the Basinโs fundamental problem โ systematic use of more than the available water supply. The operation of the UIUs may buy time and provide additional flexibility for reservoir system management, but it does not create any new water.
The debate over the future use of the UIUs has also exposed and amplified several long-standing disputes over the interpretation of the key provisions of the Law of the River,ยณยฒ and ambiguities in the major federal legislation that authorized the construction and operation of the riverโs major federal reservoirs. A primary disputed issue facing the Colorado River Basin today is how much water must flow at Lee Ferry to satisfy the Upper Division Statesโ 1922 Compact obligations. As stated above, delivering water to Lee Ferry was a core purpose for both Lake Powell and the three UIUs.ยณยณ
On August 24, 2026, the state of Nevada, the Colorado River Commission of Nevada, and the Southern Nevada Water Authority filed a complaint for declaratory action and injunctive relief requesting a declaration that the ROD, Final Environmental Impact Statement, and 2027-2028 Guidelines are in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and the Law of the River.ยณโด The complaint requests an injunction halting the implementation of the ROD and Operating Guidelines. Among other arguments, the plaintiffs claim that the Secretary failed to consider the exercise of authority to operate the UIUs in compliance with the Law of the River and NEPA.
The ROD states that the UIUs will be the subject of a new DROA agreement (referred to as a โframeworkโ) that is currently being negotiated among Reclamation and the Upper Division States. This proposed agreement, drafts of which have not been released to the public, has already received criticism from the State of Arizona. If finalized, it could also be the subject of future litigation.ยณโต In the remainder of the paper, we explore the history of the UIUs from their conception to the present day to provide context and rationale for future operations.
*ย Retired General Manager, Colorado River Water Conservation District.
โ ย Senior Fellow, Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado Law School; former US Commissioner, Upper Colorado River Commission; former Assistant Secretary for Water and Science, US Dept. of the Interior.
โกย Center for Colorado River Studies, Utah State University; former Chief, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center.
ยงย Director of Research, Kyl Center for Water Policy, Arizona State University; former Director, Phoenix Water Services.
**ย Staff Attorney, Utton Transboundary Resources Center, University of New Mexico.
1 The position of the Lower Division States is that the Upper Division States must not deplete the ten-year flow at Lee Ferry below 75 MAF PLUS deliver half of the annual treaty delivery to Mexico. The normal treaty delivery is 1.5 MAF, so the total ten-year delivery obligation could be 82.5 MAF. In recent years, under Minutes 323 and 330, the annual delivery has been less, but because these Minutes also create water that Mexico can store โ calculating how much delivery the Upper Division States must share is not a simple matter. In any event, however, it appears that 81.2 MAF is less than the required 10-year flow pursuant to the Lower Division Statesโ legal position.
1 The Upper Division States do not agree that their obligation to Mexico under Article III(c) of the 1922 Compact is half of the annual delivery to Mexico under the 1944 Treaty every year. For more information, see Eric Kuhn, et. al, The 1922 Compact is Now the Obvious Elephant in the Negotiating Room, Oct. 6, 2025, https://www.colorado.edu/center/gwc/media/707.
2 This paper describes the authorization of the UIUs, the events leading up to that authorization, and some of the debate that resulted in the compromises in the 1956 Colorado River Storage Project Act (1956 CRSPA). The authors recognize that there are several detailed histories of CRSPA that address different aspects of its origins and come from a different perspective. Among these are: MARC REISNER. CADILLAC DESERT: THE AMERICAN WEST AND ITS DISAPPEARING WATER (1986, Viking Press); M. HARVEY, A SYMBOL OF WILDERNESS: ECHO PARK AND THE AMERICAN CONSERVATION MOVEMENT (Univ. N.M. Press 1994, 2nd Ed. Univ. of W.A. Press, 2000). Recognizing the value and insights of these previous works, this paper seeks to place the UIUs and their origins within the context of todayโs hydrology and disputes.
4 The provision of hydroelectric power and resulting revenues prompted the label โcash register damโ to refer to projects in which the hydropower receipts finance other project construction. Long-Term Drought and Glen Canyon Dam: Potential Effects on Water Deliveries and Hydropower, Congressional Rsch. Serv., Apr. 4, 2023, at 4.
5 1956 CRSPA Preamble.
6 The three reservoirs in the Aspinall Unit are Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, and Crystal. Only Blue Mesa is operated for river regulation and storage. Future references to storage in the UIUs include Blue Mesa, Flaming Gorge and Navajo Reservoirs, but not Morrow Point and Crystal Reservoirs. A number of additional reservoirs were authorized by the 1956 CRSPA (and subsequent federal legislation) as components of participating projects. All of these reservoirs have specific project functions. Several of these reservoirs store a significant amount of water. Strawberry Reservoir, a component of the Central Utah Project, McPhee Reservoir, a component of the Dolores Project, and Fontanelle Reservoir, a component of the Seedskadee Project are three prominent examples.
7 The data sources for this paper are primarily the Hydrologic Database (HDB) and the 24-Month Studies, both maintained or prepared by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. We use โlive storageโ to mean the amount of storage reported in the HDB or alternately, the 24-Month studies. The standard terminology for reservoirs is that live storage is the amount that can be physically withdrawn or released downstream. Active storage is the amount above the power plant penstocks (or primary outlet works for Navajo Reservoir). Inactive storage is the amount between the power plant inlets, and the low-level outlet works. Below the low-level outlet is the โdead pool.โ In theory, live storage = active plus inactive storage. In practice, however, each reservoir has a different design and different management issues. It is possible that some live storage may not be accessible for downstream delivery and use. The figures provided for live and active storage in the UIUs do not include Crystal and Morrow Point reservoirs.
14 UCRC Seventy-Fourth Annual Report (2023), page 15. With the DROA releases, Lake Powell reached a low of 3519.92 ft. (MSL), in early April 2023.
15 UCRC Seventy-Fifth Annual Report (2024), page 15. With an estimated natural flow of 17.3 MAF, 2023 was the third wettest year since 2000. We refer to it as a moderately wet year based on comparisons with the 20th Century record. With a natural flow of 17.3 MAF, it is about the same as the ten-year average from 1980-1989 โ 17.2 MAF. USBR natural flow database, https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/index.html.
21 Memo from John Entsminger to Andrea Travnicek, Subject: Lower Division Statesโ Proposal for 2026โ2028 Colorado River Operations, Dated May 1, 2026.
30 Department Response to Lower Division Statesโ Proposal for 2027-2028 Colorado River Operations, May 28, 2026.
31 The Ute Mountain Ute Tribe, Southern Ute Indian Tribe, Jicarilla Apache Nation, and Navajo Nation each have significant and unique interests in the operation of Navajo Reservoir. The Ute Indian Tribe of the Uintah and Ouray Reservation has asserted claims to water stored in Flaming Gorge Reservoir.
32 The Law of the River is a complex set of agreements, treaties, court decisions, and regulations that govern the allocation and use of water resources in the Colorado River Basin. A Colorado River Overview: Education, Facts & Statistics, https://coloradoriver.com/statistics-facts/.
ยณโต The term โframeworkโ to describe the new DROA was used by the UCRC at its Sept. 15, 2026, Special Meeting. The comments by Tom Buschatzke were made at the August 24, 2026, meeting of the Arizona Reconsultation Committee.
โMuch of the area reported the wettest September on record,โ said David Byers, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Grand Junction.
The late-September rainstorms delivered steady precipitation over several days, and Southwest Colorado reported no flash floods, he said. The NWS was particularly concerned about the Gold Mountain burn scar near Ouray because many homes are in the area. Because the rain came in steadily over time, no flash floods were recorded, he said…
Durango-La Plata County Airport recorded rainfall totals of about 3.2 inches of rain from the late September storms, Byers said. In the mountains above 12,000 feet, that rain became snow. Vallecito Reservoir rose about 18 feet, or about 30,000 acre-feet, from this fallโs moisture. Although water levels have increased significantly, a decent winter is still important for the reservoir, said David Hofmann, superintendent of the Pine River Irrigation District…The water discharge of theย Animas River, measured in cubic feet per second, went from about 230 cfs on Sept. 1 to a high of a little over 2,400 cfs on Tuesday after the storms.ย Vallecito Creekย went from about 45 cfs on Sept. 1 to a peak of about 2,500 cfs on Sept. 17, according to USGS continuous data.
Hey, guess what! I frigginโ hate putting Tr*)*p in the headline of this newsletter once again. It makes me nauseous. But the thing is, his administration has significantly stepped up its attacks on the environment, public lands, and wildlife over the last few months. I donโt know if this is an attempt to distract from ridiculous wars and crazy gasoline prices, or if itโs a rush to roll back as many protections as possible before the midterms. Whatever it is, I have to respond and cover the news, especially when itโs as big and consequential as todayโs.
Last week, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Director Brian Nesbitvik sent out a memo to directing agency leadership to effectively eviscerate the Endangered Species Act by exempting industry from its purview, leaving imperiled wildlife vulnerable to slaughter and even extinction, so long as the action wasnโt โintentionally directed against a particular animal or animals.โ
The Endangered Species Act declares it โunlawful for any personโ to โtakeโ โ meaning to harass, harm, pursue, hunt, shoot, wound, kill, trap, capture, or collect โ any species listed under the ESA. Since the law was passed in 1973, โtakeโ has always been unqualified and absolute, meaning that killing or harming one of these animals is illegal whether the animal is targeted or not. This not only protects the animals from hunters, say, but also from industrial activities that may incidentally kill protected species.
The Sept. 14 memo, however, directs the agency to adopt U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scaliaโs interpretation of โtakeโ in his dissenting opinion on a 1995 case, where he wrote that โtake is a term of artโ that โdescribes a class of acts (not omissions) done directly and intentionally (not indirectly and by accident) to particular animas (not populations of animals).โ
Scalia expanded by writing that setting out poison with the intention of killing a wolf or other particular animal or chopping down a tree in which a bird is nesting would be a take if the โactor acted to reach the animal.โ He then went on:
What this means is that hunting and killing a Valley Dixie toad to eat it would be a prohibited take. Wiping out the entire species with a lithium mine or geothermal operation would not constitute a take under this new interpretation because it isnโt targeting a specific animal. Therefore it would be acceptable under the ESA. The Trump administration gutted the Migratory Bird Act in a similar fashion last year.
Dixie Valley toads are found only in a hot-spring fed wetland in Dixie Valley, northeast of Fallon, Nevada. Dixie Valley toads were emergency listed as an endangered species in April 2022. Primary threats include geothermal development, disease, predation by other non-native frog species, groundwater pumping for human and agricultural use and climate change. By USFWS Pacific Southwest Region from Sacramento, US – Dixie Valley toad in its wetland habitat., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=120784750
To be clear, industry has killed endangered wildlife and migratory birds even under the stricter interpretation of โtake.โ But the prohibition on doing so, and the sometimes substantial fines that go along with it, incentivize industries to take measures to avoid incidental takes.
The new interpretation essentially gives industry carte blanche to harm or kill endangered species without accountability or recourse and reduces the ESA to no more than a ban on hunting certain species of wildlife. If this directive holds, the consequences will be dire.
๐ตย Public Landsย ๐ฒ
President Donald Trumpโs unlawful shrinkage of Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments went into effect Sept. 11. That same day, two separate parties filed 16 new mining claims with the San Juan County recorder in the reopened areas (but they are not yet in the BLMโs records).
George W. Schultz filed three claims in the Lockhart Basin area, which is on the northern end of the pre-shrinkage monument below and north of Needles Overlook. And Kimmerle Mining staked 13 claims in the Cottonwood Creek drainage near the Cheese & Raisins Hills (they had previously filed seven claims in that same area).
Schultz owns and operates a Jeep tour outfit in Moab and is active in the off-road vehicle advocacy community. His father was a geologist who staked dozens of claimsin southeastern Utah, and the younger Schultz has also staked claims in the past, including several inactive ones in Lockhart Basin, near the new ones. While the area had a few prospects, it was not an especially active area for uranium mining historically.
The Kimmerle family and its various firms hold hundreds of mining claims across southern and eastern Utah, including several within Bears Ears National Monument. Kyle Kimmerle proposed mining unpatented claims within the monument, but did not go through the process of proving the claimโs validity that was a prerequisite for obtaining an operating permit. Kimmerle then joined Utahโs lawsuit seeking to block the Biden administrationโs restoration of the monumentโs original boundaries.
Kyle Kimmerleโs firm, Three Step Resources, was the underground contractor at Energy Fuelsโ La Sal Complex uranium mine in 2024 and early 2025, when the federal Mine Safety & Health Administration issued 16 citations for violations related to radon concentration and radon monitoring requirements, worker training, personal protection equipment use, and explosive material storage. In late 2024 Kimmerle was appointed to the board of Urano Energy, now Manhattan Uranium, which holds claims in the Lisbon Valley and near the San Rafael Swell.
In 2024, Sassy Gold was set to acquire 345 uranium mining claims on 8,206 acres in La Sal Creek, the Lisbon Valley, the Uravan Mineral Belt, and on the San Rafael Swell from Kimmerle Mining and its associated firm, Three Step Partnership. But a few months later, Sassy retracted its offer, saying it โidentified a number of material political, environmental and technical risks associated with the propertiesโ that โfundamentally altered the value of the proposed transaction.โ
Kimmerleโs new claims are in an area that was heavily mined historically.
The rains have finally arrived in the Four Corners, which is a big relief, but also has had tragic consequences: A flash flood on Wednesday swept three people to their deaths near Newcomb, New Mexico, on the Navajo Nation. A flash flood watchremains in effect in northern New Mexico today.
As one might expect, the rains bolstered streamflows significantly. Here are a couple of graphs for some of the biggest beneficiaries of the extra precipitation:
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney). Here’s an excerpt:
September 24, 2026
Pagosa Country has experienced both record-low river levels and flooding that caused closures over the last week, including the ongoing closure of Chimney Rock National Monument. The San Juan River in downtown Pagosa Springs hit a new record low flow on Thursday, Sept 10, falling below 12 cubic feet per second (cfs), before trending back up with this weekโs rains. On Friday, Sept. 11, the Piedra River near Arboles set a new record low flow of 10.4 cfs. The previous record for that day was set in 2018 at 17.3 cfs. By Wednesday morning, the San Juan River was flowing above 60 cfs, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and had an instantaneous reading over 55.1 cfs at 2 p.m. According to 90 water years of USGS records, the record low flow for Sept. 16 was set in 2018 at 12.9 cfs. The record high was recorded in 1970 at 1,190 cfs. The median cfs for that date is 85 cfs, and the mean is 144 cfs. As of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, the Piedra River was flowing at a rate of 25.2 cfs. According to 63 water years of USGS records, the record low for that date was set in 2018 at 11.2 cfs, and the record high was set in 1970 at 1,630 cfs. The mean flow for that date is 216 cfs, and the median flow is 123 cfs. Pagosa County experienced multiple rain events beginning on Monday, Sept. 14, with reports from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network in Archuleta County showing anywhere from just under an inch to more than 2 inches of rain received from Monday to Wednesday.
Colorado Drought Monitor map September 22, 2026.
The most recent drought map released by the U.S. Drought Monitor was published on Sept. 10, before the areaโs most recent rain events, and shows just over 50 percent of Archuleta County being in a stage three, extreme drought. That was up from just over 22 percent of the county falling under extreme drought as of Sept. 1.
Durango experienced a drier-than-normal August…The month of August accumulated 0.28 inches of precipitation, 0.12 inches of which occurred Monday. Monday was the highest precipitation day of August, Gillian Felton, a National Weather Service meteorologist in the Grand Junction office, said. August traditionally averages closer to 1.3 inches of rain, according to the weather service, and precipitation this August was down about an inch comparatively. A plethora of reasons contributed to the dry spell, said Brooke Scholtens, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Grand Junction.
โFor the earlier parts of the summer, we were experiencing those drought-like conditions,โ she said. โSo that makes things incredibly difficult, especially since the pushes that we did see of the monsoon, most of the time, we had dry air in the way that was kind of preventing moisture from entering the region.โ
This monsoon has been drier than traditional years, Scholtens said. She added that the weather service measures moisture at Durango-La Plata County Airport, so some areas around Durango may have differing precipitation levels…Monsoons donโt have a specific end date, but it usually wraps up mid- to late-September, Scholtens said…According to theย National Integrated Drought Information System, 91.6% of La Plata County is in a severe drought and 8.4% of the county is in an extreme drought. Durango has been in Stage One water restrictions since early April as part of the city of Durangoโs Drought Management Plan.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
At recent meetings, the San Juan Water Conservancy District (SJWCD) and the Pagosa Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) boards of directors approved applications for findings of reasonable diligence for several water rights held by the districts…At an Aug. 13 meeting, the PAWSD Board of Directors unanimously approved applications for findings of reasonable diligence for three sets of water rights, including rights for the San Juan River intake, a group of rights associated with the Dry Gulch Reservoir project that the SJWCD leads development on, and a second enlargement on a water right in Dutton Ditch. The Dry Gulch and Dutton Ditch water rights are held by both PAWSD and the SJWCD, while the San Juan right is exclusive to PAWSD. PAWSD board member Bill Hudson pointed out that these water rights are not rights PAWSD is currently using, but are rights that could be developed in the future if the district needs them…At an Aug. 17 meeting, the SJWCD Board of Directors also unanimously approved diligence filings for the Dry Gulch and Dutton Ditch water rights. SJWCD legal counsel Jeffrey Kane explained to the board that he would file the joint application for the Dry Gulch water rights, while PAWSDโs legal counsel would file the application for the Dutton Ditch water rights.
At its Aug. 17 meeting, the San Juan Water Conservancy District (SJWCD) Board of Directors moved forward with contracting engineering firm RJH Consultants to perform a water demand study for the districtโs reservoir project. SJWCD board president Randy Cooper opened discussion of the study by summarizing the history of the study, which the board delayed approving at its last meeting since board treasurer Joe Tedder was not at the meeting and had not had an opportunity to review the contract. He explained that the $147,400 cost of the study would be split between 2026 and 2027, which RJH had agreed to. In response to a question from Tedder, Cooper stated that RJH would be ready to start work on the study immediately upon board approval…The board agreed that RJH should provide monthly updates on the project to ensure that the project adapts to any changing circumstances or barriers the district encounters, which Jones raised concerns about.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
The Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) Board of Directors heard an update on drought conditions and continued discussions of violation enforcement at its Aug. 13 meeting…PAWSD is currently in drought stage two of its four-stage drought management plan. PAWSD District Manager Andrew Connor stated that PAWSD currently has โreally good complianceโ and saw a drop in water sales in July, meaning that public education is working, even if revenues for the district also decreased…PAWSD board member Glenn Walsh asked if the revenue decrease from lowered water use in July was compensated for by surcharges for high water use, which staff confirmed. PAWSD board member Alex Boehmer commented that, since the district is getting compliance with its regulations, he did not think implementing violation letters and fines is necessary. He added that he would also like to authorize Connor to move the district in and out of drought stages when necessary. Tautges commented that he would only want this authorization for reducing the drought stage and not for increasing it, which should require a board vote.
The Bureau of Reclamation’s 10-year plan for managing Colorado River flows seeks to preserve enough water behind the Hoover Dam to sustain electricity generation. (Angus M. Thuermer Jr./WyoFile)
A federal drought plan for the Colorado River and its tributaries in Wyoming shouldnโt stop Wyoming from building a new dam and reservoir in Carbon County, two Western water experts say.
The Bureau of Reclamation plan for the sweeping basin focuses on maintaining enough water in Lake Powell and Lake Mead to generate electricity and prevent degradation of critical infrastructure, professors from Utah and Arizona said last week.
The 10-year framework to manage water storage and releases in the complex seven-state, two-nation system seeks to balance predictability and flexibility in two-year increments. It also acknowledges that the government has little to no authority over water use in headwater states Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico, said Sarah Porter, the director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State Universityโs Morrison Institute.
โOne way of reading the final environmental impact statement,โ Porter said, โis the Bureauโs determination that it doesnโt really have any authority to limit water use in the headwaters.โ [ed. emphasis mine]
A controversial dam proposed on the West Fork of Battle Creek, which flows into the Little Snake River, above, and the Colorado River could still be built despite a drought that prevents Lake Powell and Lake Mead from filling. (EcoFlight)
Drought will likely cause agricultural stress in Arizona, Nevada and California, threatening the supply of winter vegetables and possibly other crops, she said.
โWe probably wonโt be eating as many salads,โ she said, because Arizona is where winter lettuce is harvested. โItโs all grown in Yuma.โ
More important for Wyoming might be that the Bureau of Reclamationโs final environmental impact statement recognizes the independence of headwater, or upper-division, states to essentially use water as they see fit. Efforts to conserve water in the Upper Basin โare not within the scope of this EIS,โ the federal document states.
So while farmers downstream may see their traditional supplies cut, Wyoming forges ahead with plans for the 10,000-acre-foot West Fork dam and reservoir in Carbon County where 6,000 acre-feet a year would be poured onto fields for late-season irrigation on ranches.
Energy equation
The Bureau is imposing the plan after the seven states failed to agree on how to share Colorado River flows as drought crimps traditional allotments that were based on too-rosy estimates.
โWe have the lowest reservoir storage weโve ever seen,โ said David Rosenberg, a Utah State University professor and water researcher. โWe have very low inflows.โ
He and Porter spoke in a Zoom webinar hosted by SciLine, a nonprofit that connects reporters with scientists.
The two called the Bureau of Reclamation plan a decision-making framework for distributing water in the three Lower Basin states โ initially for two years.
โIt doesnโt place the basin on a path to stabilizing the system at all,โ Porter said. โIt doesnโt resolve conflict at all. It doesnโt achieve the [long-term] things that the basin really needs at this point.โ [ed. emphasis mine]
The Colorado River Basin spans seven U.S. states and part of Mexico. Lake Powell, upstream from the Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, are the two principal reservoirs in the Colorado River water-supply system. (Bureau of Reclamation)
But the plan is โa very clear statement,โ Rosenberg said, โof how theyโre going to protect infrastructure.โ
That infrastructure includes the two major dams, associated power plants and canals that would become useless, even degraded, if the water levels in Powell and Mead drop below critical levels. With the plan, Rosenberg said, the Bureau states: โWeโre still going to be generating hydropower.โ
View below Flaming Gorge Dam from the Green River, eastern Utah. Photo credit: USGSBlue Mesa Dam. Photo credit: ReclamationThe outflow at the bottom of Navajo Dam in New Mexico. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism
Powellโsย Glen Canyonย and Meadโsย Hoover dams can generate some $443 million of market-price electricity a year when operating fully, according to calculations from the Bureau of Reclamation and theU.S. Energy Information Administration. To keep those two reservoirs flush, the Bureau will release water from Wyomingโs Flaming Gorge Reservoir and from Coloradoโs Blue Mesa Reservoir and New Mexicoโs and Coloradoโs Navajo Reservoir.
Beyond that, the Bureauโs plan targets the three Lower Basin states for reductions, depending on water in the river system and reservoirs.
Headwater states largely rely on stream and river flows determined by spring runoff. The at-risk region in Wyoming includes the Green River and its tributaries and the Little Snake River in Carbon County.
In contrast, the Lower Basin โgets all of its water, Colorado River water, from the reservoirs,โ Porter said. Itโs a lot more complicated to curtail Upper Basin use โthan simply to not deliver water out of a reservoir,โ she said. โAnd thatโs a sore point with the Lower Basin.โ
The two professors predicted a fight. โWe expect theyโll be challenging this administrative process,โ Porter said of the lower division statesโ reaction to the Bureauโs EIS.
Compact call coming
Thereโs more on the horizon too.
โI also expect that within the next year and a half, or maybe two years, there will be what we call a compact call,โ Porter said, โa demand from the Lower Basin for water that the Lower Basin contends the Upper Basin is obligated to deliver.
โThat challenge will occur in the United States Supreme Court and that could take 10, 20, 30 years.โ
Under the 1922 Colorado River Compact and associated agreements, the upper division states canโt diminish the flow from Lake Powell below 7.5 million acre-feet annually, calculated on a 10-year rolling average. Thatโs half what engineers originally calculated the watershed would produce; half belonging to the headwater states, half to the Lower Basin. That estimate is now considered to have been exuberantly optimistic. [ed. emphasis mine]
โWe really need to figure out a way collectively to be reducing demand in the Colorado River by at least 3 million acre-feet out of the 15 million,โ Porter said, โand that probably canโt all fall on the Lower Basin.
โThe Lower Basin,โ she said, โdidnโt agree to be junior to the Upper Basin.โ
If Upper Basin states donโt deliver the 7.5 million acre-feet past the Lee Ferry gauging station just below Lake Powell, headwaters curtailment will begin, starting with the most recent, or junior, water-right holders.
Until then, conservation in Wyoming will be voluntary, generally meaning that if an irrigator or other user forgoes their water right, they will need to be paid. In previous trial conservation programs, that has cost $500 an acre foot.
But a compact call by Lower Basin states would lead to curtailment โ a mandatory cutting off of Upper Basin water use starting with the most recent, or junior, rightsโ holders. Long-established ranches and irrigators hold senior rights while Wyoming municipalities and industries in the Green River Basin are likely among the first to be curtailed.
The proposed dam would be 264 feet high, 700 feet long and made out of concrete. (Major King for WyoFile)
Under the โLaw of the River,โ Wyoming has rights โ on paper โ to 14% of the Upper Basinโs 7.5 million acre-feet annually. Thatโs about 1 million acre-feet. But the state engineer estimated in 2010 that Wyomingโs rights amount to 847,000 acre-feet a year, according to the stateโs 2010 plan for the basin. Wyoming uses 680,076 acre-feet and has rights to another 166,924, the latest plan states.
That makes the 100,000 or so Wyomingites who rely on or use Green River water relatively water rich compared to the 40 million down-streamers who rely on the river for some or all of their agricultural and municipal needs. In essence, 100,000 Wyomingites have rights to almost 1 million acre-feet while 39.9 million down-streamers divvy up 7.5 million acre-feet.
The implications go beyond the scarcity of your garden-variety salad.
โIf there are big reductions in water supplies to those [Lower Basin] areas, there really will be impacts on our food supply nationally, not to mention other impacts,โ Porter said.
Phoenix reclaims wastewater through a multi-step filtration process – settling, aeration, disinfection – turning it into clean water for parks, cooling, and natural restoration.
Recycling water
While the prospect of southwestern metropolises crashing headlong into ugly sewerage problems caused by the crisis would seem to loom, donโt put all your money into wag-bags and porta potties yet. The municipalities are figuring out how to cope.
โThose cities are making massive investments in advanced water purification to treat reclaimed water to potable to reduce reliance on annual deliveries of Colorado River water,โ Porter said. โThat access to other water supplies or other water management strategies isnโt really available to agricultural water users or, to a great extent, the tribes who are significant rights holders to Colorado River water.
โWe may see impacts to cities really smoothed out and not be very disruptive,โ she said. โIf we do have disruptive impacts, they will probably fall on rural areas and tribal communities in the Lower Basin.โ
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Josh Pike and Randi Pierce). Here’s an excerpt:
July 29, 2026
Beginning July 22, area jurisdictions began rescinding Stage 2 fire restrictions, with Stage 1 restrictions remaining in effect in much of the area…On July 22, it was announced that improved fire weather conditions and near containment on the Ferris Fire had prompted Bureau of Land Management (BLM) officials to ease fire restrictions and reopen public lands within the Tres Rios Field Office. Effective July 22, Stage 2 fire restrictions were lifted on BLM-administered public lands managed by the Tres Rios Field Office, including Canyons of the Ancients National Monument…On Thursday, July 23, the Archuleta County Sheriffโs Office (ACSO) announced it had, in collaboration with the Pagosa Fire Protection District, rescinded Stage 2 fire restrictions effective immediately…The following day, Friday, July 24, the Town of Pagosa Springs announced it had rescinded Stage 2 fire restrictions effective that day…On Wednesday, July 29, the San Juan National Forest announced it would be rescinding Stage 2 fire restrictions effective 12:01 a.m. Thursday, July 30, on all National Forest System lands…
Colorado Drought Monitor map July 28, 2026.
According to the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS), areas in Archuleta County received from .91 inches to 3.15 inches of rain between July 15 and July 29. Despite the recent rains, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) remains in stage two drought restrictions, and the area remains in severe drought. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 100 percent of Archuleta County remained in severe drought as of July 21, with 1.90 percent of the county โ the northeast corner โ falling under extreme drought. The week prior, 36.15 percent of the county fell under extreme drought…
According to the U.S. Geological Survey water monitoring gauge at the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs and the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, although the San Juan has remained at a very low but generally steady level, it did appear to hit record low levels several times over the last week. According to the River Forecast Center, on July 24, the river hit about 19 cubic feet per second (cfs), below the 2002 low of 21. The following day, it hit about 17 cfs, below the 2002 low of 19 cfs. On July 28 at 11:15 a.m., the river was recorded running at 15 cubic feet per second (cfs), 0.5 cfs above the previous record low set in 2002.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
This week, rain returned to Pagosa Country, bringing some relief from the dry heat that dominated June and early July and heralding the start of the summer monsoon season. Weather modeling by the National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) suggests that the summer monsoon season is likely to bring average or above average precipitation to the region โ a bounty compared to the approximately 25 to 50 percent of average precipitation Archuleta County received in last month. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts that drought conditions in the area will improve by Sept. 30, although it suggests that current severe and extreme drought levels calculated by the U.S. Drought Monitor will persist through July.
The Pagosa Area Water & Sanitation District is currently in drought stage two, which includes a number of restrictions on outdoor irrigation, as well as additional fees for high water use. In stage two, irrigation is allowed only between 9 p.m. and 9 a.m. every other weekday, with even-numbered addresses able to irrigate on even-numbered days and odd-numbered addresses on odd-numbered days. Weekend irrigation is prohibited. However, drip irrigation and hand watering edible or ornamental gardens is allowed at all times. Residential water use above 4,000 gallons per month is subject to a two times rate multiplier. PAWSD District Manager Andrew Connor explained that, while the rains associated with the monsoons might eventually impact the districtโs drought restrictions, changes would require a large amount of rain and would not be immediate. In the summer, the drought stage is primarily driven by the water level in Hatcher Reservoir, flows in the San Juan River and the date…
PAWSD District Engineer Justin Ramsey explained that the districtโs drought management plan focuses on irrigation since it composes a large portion of the districtโs water use in the summer and because losing green lawn grass or other plants has a smaller impact on peopleโs lives than restrictions on showering, dish washing or other indoor water uses…The drought stages in the districtโs drought management plan align with this goal, imposing progressively tightening restrictions on when irrigation can occur while placing no restrictions on indoor water use except increasing fees for high water consumption. However, for all but the most severe drought stage, these restrictions only cover irrigation done with sprinklers and other automated devices, with the use of drip irrigation devices and hand watering allowed at all times…Manual and drip irrigation encourage people to be more conscious about how they use water by involving them more deeply in the process and requiring more hands-on time, he added. Another way to increase the water available for gardens and landscaping without paying more fees is to reduce water waste in your home, Connor and Ramsey highlighted.
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Josh Pike). Here’s an excerpt:
July 8, 2026
On July 6, Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) District Engineer Justin Ramsey issued a clarification to the districtโs stage two drought restrictions, indicating that outdoor irrigation is allowed between 9 p.m. and 9 a.m. In his clarification, he explains that the districtโs drought management plan had sections that indicated that irrigation was restricted to between 6 p.m. and 9 a.m. and sections that indicated the limitation was between 9 p.m. and 9 a.m. He adds that the district has now settled on the latter interpretation, which is different from some previous sources of information about the drought restrictions. The other restrictions for drought stage two remain the same. Irrigation is allowed every other day at the designated times on weekdays, with odd-numbered addresses watering on odd-numbered days and even-numbered addresses watering on even-numbered days. Weekend watering is prohibited. Edible and ornamental gardens can still be hand watered or drip irrigated. Residential water use above 4,000 gallons a month is subject to a two times rate multiplier under drought stage two. Restaurants are required to serve water only on request, and hotels are encouraged to only replace towels and bed linens for new guests and at the request of current guests. The goal of drought stage two is to reduce water usage by 20 to 30 percent, according to the PAWSD drought management plan…
The U.S. Geological Surveyโs (USGSโs) water flow monitoring data is the primary window into local river flows, which factor into PAWSDโs drought stage calculations. The primary monitoring station for the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs is located underneath the bridge where U.S. 160 crosses the river near 1st Street. The reported flows have undergone significant recalibrations this month, with flows in the San Juan River appearing at times in later June to drop below the historic low flows in 2002 before being revised upward. These revisions are partially driven by last yearโs flooding events, explained Kyle Raimer, who works as a hydrologic technician for the USGS Colorado Water Science Centerโs Western Colorado Office in Durango. Raimer stated that the monitoring system sends out a radar pulse every 15 minutes, which contacts the water below the monitor and returns to the sensor, allowing it to measure how high the water level is. The flooding event and other construction work near the site have changed the shape of the channel and altered this relationship between water level and river discharge, Raimer indicated. USGS staff are working to rebuild accurate estimates by taking manual river flow measurements of the river at different water levels, Raimer stated, which can then be used to establish the correct correlations between water level and discharge.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney). Here’s an excerpt:
July 1, 2026
The Archuleta County Board of Health (BoH) held a special meeting on June 15 to consider approval of Regulation 43, pertaining to on-site wastewater treatment system (OWTS), also known as septic systems…
According to the regulation attached to the meeting agenda, โThe purpose of these Regulations is to establish the minimum standards for the location, design, construction, performance, installation, alteration, and use of OWTS with a design capacity equal to or less than 2,000 gallons per day within the Jurisdiction.โ
[…]
It also states that the regulations apply to all OWTS in the unincorporated areas of the county and over all municipal corporations within the territorial limits of Archuleta County.
Furthermore, it explains that an โOWTS permit must not be issued to any person when the subject property is located within a municipality or special district that provides public sewer service, except where such sewer service to the property is not feasible according to the determination of the municipality or special district, or the permit is otherwise authorized by the municipality or special district.โ
The document explains that Archuleta County Water Quality Department โmay enter upon a private property at reasonable times and upon reasonable notice for the purpose of determining whether or not an operating OWTS is functioning in compliance with the OWTS Act and applicable regulations adopted pursuant thereto and the terms and conditions of any permit issued and to inspect and conduct tests in evaluating any permit application.โ
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
The Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) entered stage two drought on June 22 due to decreasing water levels in Hatcher Reservoir and the San Juan River. Drought stage two imposes a variety of additional restrictions on water use in addition to the restrictions from drought stage one…
On Wednesday morning, the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs was flowing at approximately 35 cubic feet per second (cfs), about 5 cfs above the record low flow of 30.4 cfs, which the river reached in 2002. The mean flow for the river on June 24 is approximately 952 cfs…Two of PAWSDโs three water plants draw water from different locations on the San Juan River, while the third takes water from Hatcher Reservoir. The water level in Hatcher on June 22 was about 13 inches below full pool, which is down about 5 inches from June 9. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationโs National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), 64 percent of Archuleta County is in severe drought, while 36 percent of the county is in extreme drought.
At its June 11 meeting, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) Board of Directors authorized the district manager to enter stage two drought when the appropriate trigger points are reached, which staff predicted will be in the near future. District Engineer Justin Ramsey explained to the board that, based on water levels in Hatcher Reservoir and the San Juan River, the district was still in drought stage one, but was โjust a couple inches awayโ from having to enter stage two according to the districtโs drought management plan. Both the San Juan River and Lake Hatcher are sources for the water processed at PAWSDโs water treatment plants.
Ramsey predicted that the district would likely enter drought stage two within a week, adding that Hatcher Reservoir is losing between a quarter and a half inch in water level a day and a drop of 3 inches would place the district in drought stage two. He requested that the board authorize District Manager Andrew Connor to move the district into drought stage two once the trigger points are reached, avoiding a need for the board to have a special meeting in the near future to authorize the move.
On June 2, the Pagosa Springs Town Council heard a presentation from Al Pfister, board president of the Upper San Juan Watershed Enhancement Partnership (WEP), about an application for the state-run Wildfire Ready Action Plan (WRAP) grant. The WRAP grant is a state of Colorado program, with its website describing the program as โlocally-developed wildfire ready action plans (WRAP), refining the statewide susceptibility evaluations to reflect local values and community-scale data.โย Pfister explained that the total project cost for WEP to do a watershed fire action plan for the Upper San Juan watershed would be about $400,000, and the grant would require a match of about $100,000. He noted the benefits of a WRAP would include identifying critical infrastructure that may be susceptible to risk and developing plans for roads and trails that may be impacted by post-wildfire effects. The fostering of collaboration between planners and emergency management agencies would also be a benefit to the community, he stated.ย
He explained what a WRAP actually does, saying it fosters stakeholder engagement, collects data and resources for the watershed, and organizes that data into a central database for use down the road.ย He added that the models could help predict how a watershed will behave in a post-wildfire situation and that the action plan would include both pre-and post-wildfire projects to mitigate damage to the watershed.ย He added that he was not at the meeting asking for funding at this time, but wanted to give the council a โheads upโ that this was coming up.
The Bureau of Reclamation has adjusted the release schedule from Navajo Dam due to downstream maintenance activities. On Tuesday, May 5th at 4:00 AM, the release will increase from 450 to 500 cubic feet per second (cfs). A further increase to 550 cfs is planned for Thursday, May 7th at 4:00 AM.
Releases are made for the authorized purposes of the Navajo Unit, and to attempt to maintain a target base flow through the endangered fish critical habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to Lake Powell). The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout the critical habitat area from Farmington to Lake Powell.
This scheduled release change is subject to changes in river flows and weather conditions. If you have any questions, please contact Conor Felletter (cfelletter@usbr.gov or 970-637-1985), or visit Reclamationโs Navajo Dam website at https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html
When Donald Trump was elected president for the second time, we all knew what was coming to the nationโs public lands: The administration would favor extractive uses by eviscerating environmental protections, rolling back regulations, and leasing out as much land as possible while handing out drilling permits like Shriners throwing candy at a parade.
Yet there was one realm where I figured the administration couldnโt bestow any more deregulatory gifts, namely public lands grazing. Itโs not that I thought Trump would clamp down on the destructive practice, itโs just that I figured the status quo was about as permissive as it could get. Past administrations, be they Democratic or Republican, have generally shied away from updating or reforming public lands grazing policies out of fear of inflaming the Westโs cowboy culture โ even if it is based largely on myth.
But Trump, his Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins are intrepidly going where previous administrations did not dare: grazing reform. Well, sort of, though maybe not in the way public lands lovers might have hoped. In fact, they are doing their best to make grazing policy even more lax with a goal of getting more cattle out there to trample public lands, cryptobiotic soils, and cultural sites.
Last month, Burgum and Rollins announced an MOU between the two agencies designed to โboost the supply of American born, raised, and harvested beefโ by cutting โbureaucratic red tapeโ and giving the livestock industry more control. The MOU has a goal of โmaintaining grazing capacity wherever possible, including no net loss of Animal Unit Months within allotments,โ even if those allotments are degraded or in poor health. In Burgumโs words, one goal is to โpreserve Americaโs ranching heritage for generations to come.โ Forgive me for getting anxious whenever I see โheritageโ used in conjunction with public lands.
โTodayโs signing sends a clear message: the Trump administration is putting Americaโs farmers and ranchers first,โ said Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. Which brings up the question of what message the administration was sending in February when Trump signed an executive order toย quadruple beef importsย from Argentina in an effort to keep Big Macs affordable.
๐บ๏ธ Messing with Maps ๐งญ
To help it carry out its mission, the Bureau of Land Management has released anย interactive mapย aimed at putting more cattle and sheep back on public lands. The โfederal grazing lands potentially availableโ map shows allotments that have been vacated, often as a result of deals brokered by environmentalists, with the intent of peddling the tracts to livestock operators. While thereโs no guarantee that the BLM would lease out all of the vacant tracts, the presence on the map of the ones vacated for environmental purposes is enough to set off alarm bells.
Grazing allotments listed as โpotentially availableโ for leasing on the BLMโs new map. The five parcels closest to Silverton were retired in 2023 to protect bighorn sheep. Source: BLM
For example, the map includes 10 allotments in the high country around Silverton, Colorado, totaling about 70,000 acres. In 2023, the National Wildlife Federation paid the Etchart Sheep Ranch toย vacate five of these allotmentsย in an effort to give Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep more breathing room and protect them from diseases transmitted by domestic sheep. The deal was made with the hope that the leases would be retired permanently. Yet the inclusion on the map indicates they could see domestic sheep once again, emphasizing the need for legislation that would make such retirements perpetual.
Also on the map are the Flodine Park and Yellowjacket allotments in Canyon of the Ancients National Monument near the Colorado-Utah border. In 2005, a rancher gave up the allotments, north and south of McElmo Canyon, respectively, and sold 4,500 acres of adjacent private land to the BLM to add to the national monument. Both allotments and the private land contain a number of intermittent streams, shallow canyons, and numerous cultural sites. They had been grazed relentlessly for decades prior, and showed the wear and tearโmuch of theย cryptobiotic soil had long before been trampled and destroyedย andย invasive cheat grass had infiltrated the grazed areas. An archaeological assessment conducted later found grazing had damaged dozens of sensitive and cultural sites in the areas.
The Yellowjacket and Flodine Park allotments in Canyons of the Ancients National Monument. They have been vacant since 2005, and a previous effort to lease them out again was halted. Now it looks like they may be back on the block. Source: BLM
In 2010, the BLM, which manages the monument, issued a new resource management plan, which allowed for continued grazing, but also opened the door to permanently retiring vacant grazing allotments if they fail to meet BLM rangeland health standards or when grazing is negatively impacting cultural sites. Five of the 28 allotments in the most heavily visited areasโincluding Sand Canyonโwere cancelled, but not the Flodine Park and Yellow Jacket allotments, which were still in retirement at the time.
Instead, the local county commissioners and a group of ranchers pressured the BLM to reauthorize grazing on both allotmentsโto bring them out of retirement, if you will. The BLM acquiesced, but environmentalists and tribes with roots in the area fought back, forcing the agency to do a more thorough environmental analysis of the proposal. The opposition was enough to prompt the agency at least to delay issuing any leases, and the allotments remain in limbo.
Meanwhile, a team of scientistsย assessed the healing processย on the Flodine Park and Yellow Jacket allotments, which by then had been cow-free for 11 years (though feral horses had grazed there). They compared biocrusts on those allotments to a fenced enclosure that hadnโt seen grazing for 53 years and a plot that was being actively grazed. What they found was both predictable and remarkable: The longer a plot went without cows, the healthier it was, as summed up by these graphs.
Source: Grazing, Rest, and Biological Soil Crust in Canyons of the Ancients National Monument Marc Coles-Ritchie, Lior Gross and Mary OโBrien, Grand Canyon Trust.
While the natural landscape can eventually heal itself, livestockโs damage to the cultural landscape is irreversible. BLM surveys identified 266 cultural sites on the two allotments, including 35 with โstanding architecture.โ At least 43% of those had been damaged by livestock.
Now whatโs left may be in danger, too, at least if those allotmentsโ presence on the new map is any indication. And guess what? Packing these allotments isnโt going to make that steak any cheaper. Only about 1% of American beef is grazed on public lands.
Mt. Blue Sky at 14,130 feet in elevation on April 22, 2026. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
โ๏ธ Wacky Weather Watch โก๏ธ
If you were to get all of your information about the Westโs climate from daily weather reports and road condition websites, you might think that April snow showers and deep freezes had ended the snow drought and would lead to big May streamflows.ย After all, it snowed enough in Colorado to turn roads to slip-and-slides and causing aย 75-car pileupย on I-70 near the Eisenhower Tunnel. The temperatures dropped low enough to wipe out most of the fruit blossoms the March heat wave tricked into blooming early. Only the farmers who used extraordinary measures โ starting fires or smudge pots in the orchards, running wind machines, etc. โ could save some of their summer harvest.
Sunset over the San Juans. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Sure, the snow that did fall in April helped, but only enough to elevate snowpack levels to, well, the lowest on record (only by a slightly smaller margin than before). And the freeze was deep, which helped extend the spring runoff in the few areas where there was any snow left. But even there, I suspect that peak runoff has already come and gone (though Iโm not calling the Predict the Peak contest yet!).
I flew over Coloradoโs mountains the other day and was rather shocked at the dearth of snow, even on the highest peaks. Mt. Blue Sky, formerly Mt. Evans, had only a few patches of white left โ at 14,130 feet in elevation. Everything below 10,000 feet appeared to be snowless. While the San Juan Mountains appeared to be in slightly better shape, it was still looking pretty dry. The Animas River watershedโs snowpack remains lower than it was on 2002 on this date.
At an April 9 meeting, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) Board of Directors approved revisions to the districtโs drought management plan. District Engineer Justin Ramsey opened discussion of the plan, which he explained was a complete rewrite of the previous plan and was adopted in 2020 with a stipulation that it be reexamined in 2026. He added that the district also had to implement the plan in 2025 due to dry conditions, which gave additional insights into how the plan functions. He explained that he recently reconvened the committee that drafted the plan, including PAWSD board members, water experts in the community, business owners and other community members. Ramsey stated that, although there were some changes recommended to the plan, it has, overall, been highly successful. He explained that the drought stages outlined in the plan are entered based on triggers, which are different depending on the time of year.
Early in the year, he stated, the triggers are the snowpack in the mountains, measured by the amount of snow water equivalent (SWE) at the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service SNOwpack TELemetry Network (also commonly known as SNOTEL) station on Wolf Creek Pass and the date when the districtโs water supply is cut off on Four Mile Creek due to other senior water users diverting water…If specific SWE levels or a call on Four Mile do not occur by specific dates in the spring, the plan shifts to a different set of drought triggers based on water levels in Lake Hatcher (one of PAWSDโs primary reservoirs), water flows in the San Juan River and the drought stage for Archuleta County designated by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). He explained that the amount of water in Lake Hatcher is weighted the most heavily, with flows in the San Juan being the next most influential factor and drought designation being the least. He added that the different drought stages come with different drought surcharges and water rate adjustments…He explained that the first drought stage (voluntary drought) aims to cut water use by 10 percent, while the most severe drought stage (stage four) is intended to cut water use by 50 percent.
On April 22, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) entered stage one drought under its drought mitigation plan, imposing new restrictions on irrigation and rate multipliers for high water use. The districtโs drought plan calls for Conservation Service SNOwpack TELemetry Network (SNOTEL) site reaches zero between April 17 and May 1. SWE fell to zero on April 22, triggering stage one drought, according to PAWSD District Engineer Justin Ramsey. During drought stage one, irrigation is permitted only between 6 p.m. and 9 a.m., and residential customers who use more than 5,000 gallons of water a month will have a 1.25 times rate multiplier applied to their water bills. According to the PAWSD website, the imposition of this multiplier will begin to impact customer bills received in May, although the irrigation restrictions will start immediately. The plan notes that gardens may be hand watered using a hose or drip irrigation.
Drip irrigation graphic via Sonoma County Nurseries Resource
Aerial image of entrenched meanders of the San Juan River within Goosenecks State Park. Located in San Juan County, southeastern Utah (U.S.). Credits Constructed from county topographic map DRG mosaic for San Juan County from USDA/NRCS – National Cartography & Geospatial Center using Global Mapper 12.0 and Adobe Illustrator. Latitude 33ยฐ 31′ 49.52″ N., Longitude 111ยฐ 37′ 48.02″ W. USDA/FSA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
From email from Reclamation :
April 14, 2026
Reminder Navajo Reservoir Spring Operations MTG Tuesday April 21stย from 1-3pm. The meeting will be entirely virtual; members of this list should have received a Teams invite. If you did not and would like to attend email cfelletter@usbr.govย for a meeting invite.ย
Reclamation conducts Public Operations Meetings three times per year to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies along with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir.
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney and Randi Pierce). Here’s an excerpt:
April 8, 2026
On Tuesday, April 7, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) announced that the district is implementing voluntary drought restrictions, with the agency anticipating increased drought restrictions within the next two weeks. According to a statement from the district, โThe Voluntary water reduction stage is intended to give the community advanced notice of developing drought conditions and to begin encouraging water conservation and voluntary water use reduction. The Voluntary stage does not trigger the drought surcharge or tier rate multipliers.โ The statement explains the trigger points for the voluntary stage are:
A curtailment order on Four Mile Creek prior to May 1.
A maximum snow water equivalency (SWE) less than 75 percent of median.
Reservoir levels with the addition of diversion flow less than 90 percent.
The statement notes, โWith a maximum Snow Water Equivalency (SWE) of less than 75% of Median as of April 6, 2026, the District is implementing Voluntary Drought Restrictions as of April 7, 2026. PAWSD will implement the next level of mandatory drought restriction stages as dry conditions continue, and these do trigger drought surcharges and/or tier rate multipliers.โ
An email to The SUN from District Engineer Justin Ramsey also notes the move is due to the National Integrated Drought Information Center upgrading the drought state in Archuleta County from severe to extreme…
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, April 8, the San Juan River in downtown Pagosa Springs had a flow rate of 451 cubic feet per second (cfs). Based on 90 years of water records, the record high flow for that date was recorded in 1960 at 1,380 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1964 at 65 cfs. The median flow for that date is 351 cfs and the mean flow is 418 cfs. The Piedra River near Arboles was flowing at a rate of 365 cfs, as of 2 p.m Wednesday, April 8, according to the USGS. Based on 63 years of water records, the median flow for April 8 is 567 cfs and the mean flow is 690 cfs. The record high flow for April 8 was recorded in 1985 at 2,370 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1977 at 100 cfs.
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney). Here’s an excerpt:
March 26, 2026
It was warmer last week in Pagosa Country than any other time on record, as the area saw five consecutive days of record high temperatures set from March 18-22. According to forecasts posted by Shawn Prochazka with Pagosa Weather, a new record high for the month of March was set on Wednesday, March 18, at 74 degrees and again on Thursday, March 19, at 76 degrees. The previous record high for the month of March was set in 1907 and 1940 at 73 degrees. Record highs for the month continued on Friday, March 20, with temperatures reaching 79 degrees. The previous record for that date was 68 degrees, set in 1997. Prochazka also notes that record high temperatures were set on Saturday, March 21, at 77 degrees, and on Sunday, March 22, at 74 degrees…
Snowpack
According to data from the Natural Resource Conservation Services (NRCS), as of 11 a.m. on Wednesday, March 25, Wolf Creek Pass at 10,930 feet had a snow water equivalent of 12 inches, compared to that dateโs median of 27.3 inches. That amount is 44 percent of that dateโs median snow water equivalent. The San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins as a whole are listed at 21 percent of its 30-year median snowpack. The Wolf Creek summit had the second highest current snow water equivalent in the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins, and the Upper Rio Grande basin, behind the Black Mesa site with 12.2 inches of snow water equivalent as of press time Wednesday…
Colorado Drought Monitor map March 24, 2026.
Drought
According to the most recent map released by the U.S. Drought Monitor on Thursday, March 19, 100 percent of Archuleta County remains in moderate drought stage, with 22.04 percent of the county being in a severe drought stage. Areas that are in a severe drought stage lie along the eastern border of the county with Conejos County. Meanwhile, 12.88 percent of the state is in an extreme drought stage, and less than 1 percent of the state is in an exceptional drought stage. That includes portions of Pitkin, Eagle, Summit, Lake and Park counties…
River flows
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as of 11 a.m. on Wednesday, March 25, the San Juan River in downtown Pagosa Springs had a flow rate of 595 cubic feet per second (cfs). The record high flow for that date was recorded in 2004 at 860 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1964 at 42 cfs. The median flow for that date is 165 cfs, and the mean flow is 239 cfs. The Piedra River near Arboles was flowing at a rate of 434 cfs as of 11 a.m Wednesday, March 24, according to the USGS. The median flow for that date is 339 cfs, and the mean flow is 457 cfs. The record high flow for that date was recorded in 1993 at 1,400 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1964 at 45 cfs.
The San Juan River near Navajo Dam, New Mexico, Aug. 23, 2015. Photo credit: Phil Slattery Wikimedia Commons
From email from Reclamation:
March 20, 2026
Reclamation conducts Public Operations Meetings three times per year to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies along with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. The next meeting will be held virtually on April 21st
It was early June, and we sat out in the shade in our backyard in Silverton, Colorado, wearing short-sleeves and shorts and drinking cold beverages under a cloudless blue sky. That, in itself, made the day memorable. Blizzards are as likely on Memorial Day as barbecues in this mountain town, elevation 9,318 feet, and sweater-free days usually donโt come along until July.
The winter of 2001-2002 had been unusually mild and a warm April and May had melted what little snow had fallen; the Animas Riverโs spring runoff had peaked at historically low levels a couple weeks earlier. I, for one, wasnโt too worried. By then it was understood that the climate was warming, and that it could wreak havoc on the planet, but the idea of rising sea levels and devastating heat waves felt pretty abstract in the Colorado high country. Besides, as an amateur historian, I had read accounts of similarly dry and warm winters from the San Juan Mountainsโ past: In 1879, the snow was all melted from the highest peaks by May (giving way to the Lime Creek Burn that summer); sleighing was impossibleโ on Silvertonโs streets during the 1890-91 winter; and the newspaper ran a photo of a water wagon suppressing dust on Greene Street on New Yearโs Day, 1918, during โone of the most delightful winters ever experienced.โ
Vallecito Reservoir during Missionary Ridge Fire via George Weber Environmental.
This, it seemed, was just another one of those occasional weird years, so we figured we might as well enjoy it. Then someone noticed what looked like puffy cumulonimbus cloud rising up in the gap formed by the Animas River gorge. It wasnโt a cloud at all, but a billowing tower of smoke from the Missionary Ridge Fire, ignited that afternoon on a slope about 35 miles south of where we sat. Over the coming weeks, the blaze would eat through 73,000 acres of parched scrub oak and aspen and conifer forest, along with 83 structures. It eclipsed the 26,000-acre Lime Creek Burn as the stateโs largest wildfire on record, but lost the title to the Hayman Fire (138,114 acres) that was burning at the same time across the state.
Aerial view from the south of Hayman Fire June 30, 2002. Road traversing from left to right is U.S. Highway 24. Town of Manitou Springs is in lower part of photo, Colorado Springs to the right. Garden of the Gods park defined by three upright orange rock formations in right center just below smoke line. Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.
And it was then that we realized this was no normal abnormality, and that 2002 would go down as the Water Year of our Discontent: dry, smoky, and catastrophic for irrigators and river rafters alike.
This year is shaping up to be even more dire. Indeed, with temperatures in Silverton climbing into the 60s this week, Iโm sure a few people have shed some layers and soaked up the sun โ in March. Now, however, we know that this is no anomaly, but part of a long-term trend toward aridification, most likely caused or at least exacerbated by climate change. Call it the โnew normalโ if youโd like, but just remember the words of Bruce Cockburn: โThe trouble with normal is it always gets worse.โ
I wanted to wait until April to give this assessment, on the off chance that the weather might shift radically in the last days of March in a way that might give us all some hope. While anythingโs still possible, Iโve seen enough to bet that, unfortunately, we may already have seen peak snowpack in many places, making this the driest water year on record by far. And besides, I wanted to get the spring runoff โpredict the peakโ streamflow contest going before, well, the streamflows actually peaked.
A crappy snow year does not necessarily lead to a nasty fire season, since so many other factors come into play. The same can sort of be true about the peak of the spring runoff. Thatโs more about timing: A fast melt after a dry winter can result in a bigger, albeit short-lived, peak, than a slow melt of a relatively abundant snowpack. The riverโs average flows across the entire water year are much more closely tied to snowpack, but those can also be affected by a big monsoon season.
Still, looking back at similar years in the past can help with predicting flows this year. Iโm going to focus on the Animas River in Durango, because itโs my home river, it is unimpeded by dams or major upstream diversions, and it is a good proxy for a lot of other Southwestern rivers, since its headwaters are located in the same mountain range as those of the Rio Grande, the Gunnison, the Dolores, the San Miguel, the San Juan, and the Uncompahgre rivers. If the runoff is weak in the Animas, it is also likely to be weak in all of those other rivers.
The snowpack graph shows that the current heat wave has really taken a toll, and probably launched the spring runoff.
Hereโs the temperature graph for the Animas watershed. You can see that it reached a record high for the date of 42.8ยฐ F. That doesnโt seem too warm until you consider that the median temperature for March 18 is about 25ยฐ F. Probably more significant than this one little blip is the fact that daily temperatures have far exceeded โnormalโ on dozens of days this winter. Also note the contrast with 2002 (the darker green line).
When you talk to Colorado climate folks and old-timers with good memories, youโll often hear that the 1977 water year was even drier than 2002. Unfortunately, SNOTEL records typically go back only to the early 1980s, so itโs difficult to make a good apples-to-apples comparison. But by looking at the โnatural flowโ of the Colorado River, which is the calculated estimate of how much the river would carry without any human intervention, it appears that 1977 was, indeed, the driest winter across the Upper Colorado River Basin since at least 1900.
However, historic Animas River flow data suggest that 2002 was actually drier in southwestern Colorado.
Hereโs the average annual daily flow for the Animas. Note that there are several years missing between 1898 and 1911; apparently the USGS did not record flows during those years.
Average stream flows on the Animas River have trended downward over the last century and some, but the river has struggled through extreme dry years in the past. Source: USGS.
Because that graph isnโt so easy to read, hereโs a table showing the eleven lowest average daily flow water years. Note that in 1927 they only had 92 records, potentially skewing the results. The 2002 and 2018 water years were lower than in 1977. If snowpack levels correlate with annual average flows, then we could expect this yearโs to be around 200 cfs, which is pretty damned dismal.
When I took a look at the peak streamflows for the Animas, I was a bit taken aback to see that in 2002 it topped out above 1,000 cfs, which is more than I would have expected.
Then I saw the date: It peaked in September, after the monsoon arrived, not in the spring. The 2002 spring runoff actually topped out on May 21 at 880 cfs, which was far lower than the 1977 spring peak.
Based on all of that, my Animas River peak streamflow prediction is a bit wacky, but Iโm standing by it: It will top out at 700 cfs on April 15.
The rest of the Land Desk community will have a chance to predict the peak starting next week, when Iโll announce the terms, the river gauges in the contest, and the prizes for the winner(s). Most likely it will only be open to paid subscribers, so the time to upgrade is now!
We might as well get even more depressed. Hereโs the snowpack graph for the Upper Colorado River Basin, showing 2026, 2002, and 2018 โ i.e. the dismal years. Note that the spring melt has begun in earnest. If it continues at this rate, runoff will be over by early May.
And hereโs the natural flow graph for Lees Ferry on the Colorado River. Natural flow is the calculation of how much water would be in the river at that point if there were no human diversions or consumptive use upstream. If you compare this to the historic streamflows on the Animas River, youโll notice that there is a correlation, but itโs not direct. For example, 1977 was the driest year on record for the Colorado River as a whole, with a total volume of just 5.4 million acre-feet, which is about half what the Lower Basin alone was using throughout the 1990s.
The ten lowest years on record are:
1977: 5.4 MAF
2002: 5.9 MAF
1934: 6.6 MAF
2021: 7.2 MAF
1954: 8.3 MAF
2012: 8.4 MAF
2018: 8.5 MAF
2025: 8.5 MAF (provisional)
1981: 8.6 MAF
1931: 8.9 MAF
It looks like we could be in that 5.4 MAF territory once again. That wasnโt a huge deal in 1977, since it was an anomaly. It is a big deal now.
And just so you know, itโs not just the Colorado River watershed thatโs in trouble. Even California, which got pummeled by atmospheric rivers, is losing its snow rapidly.
๐ Reading (and watching) Room ๐ง
The Upper Basin and Lower Basin may not have come up with a deal yet on how to save the Colorado Riverโs massive plumbing system, but they are looking for solutions. One of them is creating an Upper Basin conservation pool. Like a lot of issues related to the rivers, itโs a slightly complicated one. But Heather Sackett of Aspen Journalism gives a really great rundown. Sheโs always a must-read for those looking to understand whatโs going on with the Colorado.
๐บ๏ธ Messing with Maps ๐งญ
The current heat wave is breaking records across the West. Hereโs a little sampling:
If you want a quick and comprehensive look where those records were broken during the last day, week, or month, check outย coolwx.com/record. In the side panel you can click on the United States and the time period you wish to see and it will show an animation of all of the records. It looks kind of like this:
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney and Randi Pierce). Here’s an excerpt:
March 19, 2026
Shawn Prochazka is also predicting more record high temperatures to have been set Wednes- day, March 18 (the high temperature reached was not available by press time that day); today, Thursday, March 19; and tomorrow, Friday, March 20. Prochazka predicted temperatures being 25 degrees above normal. Prochazka also notes that the record high for the month of March is 73 degrees, which was set March 19, 1907, and March 23 and 25, 1940. Warm and dry weather is expected to stick around throughout the weekend and into next week, with Prochazka indicating the next chance for precipitation possibly starting around March 25…Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing throughout the weekend in Pagosa Springs as a high of 82 degrees is forecast for Friday, March 20, with a low of 37 degrees and clear skies in the evening…
The drought conditions in the area have also worsened, with the U.S. Drought Monitor showing that 100 percent of Archuleta County was in moderate drought as of March 10, up from 47.89 percent of the county being in moderate drought and 100 percent of the county being abnormally dry the previous week…Snowpack also continues to fall below median levels in the region and across the state. As of Wednesday, the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins sat at 45 percent of the March 18 median. The Wolf Creek summit SNOTEL site, which sits at an elevation of 10,930 feet, was at 56 percent of the dayโs median, while the Upper San Juan site, which sits at 10,140 feet, was at 49 percent of the dayโs median.
On Tuesday, due to the recordbreaking warm temperatures and low snowpack across Colorado, Governor Jared Polis activated the stateโs Drought Task Force and Phase 2 of Coloradoโs Drought Response Plan. Acting on recommendations from the stateโs Water Conditions Monitoring Committee and partner agencies, the task force will help the state bet- ter understand and elevate the local, regional and sector-specific impacts of worsening drought conditions, a press release from the state explains.
โColorado is experiencing thewarmest year so far in our 131-year record, and one of the driest,โ Polis said. โActivating the Drought Task Force will help ensure we are protecting one of our most precious resources by closely tracking impacts, supporting communities and coordinating better as we prepare for the year ahead.โ
The Drought Task Force, last activated in 2020, brings together senior leadership from key state agencies, including the Colorado Department of Natural Resources, Colorado Department of Agriculture, Department of Local Affairs, and the Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, according to the press release. It further explains that the group assesses drought conditions statewide, elevates local impacts to state leadership, and can convene regional or sector-specific workgroups to gather information and share resources…
As of noon on Wednesday, March 18, the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs was running at a flow of 286 cubic feet per second (cfs), above the median flow for March 18 The median flow for March 18 sits at 121.5 cfs, with a historical low for the date being 39 cfs and the historical high being 1,040 cfs.