During a meeting held by the Archuleta County Board of Health (BoH) on Sept. 17, the board heard from Water Quality Manager Jessica Green about potential changes to the county’s regulations involving on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Green commented that the OWTS program “has been pretty overwhelming” for staff since the beginning of the year…Green explained that the inspection ensures the condition of the system is evaluated at the point of a property title being transferred, “which prevents failing systems from being sold without disclosure of risk.”
She also explained that it provides oversight with higher-risk properties through existing exemptions, adding that the state does not define what exemptions are possible and that the county can adjust those exemptions to meet its needs…Green “strongly” recommended that the BoH keep the transfer-of-title program, noting that there is a $115 permit cost associated with the program. She added that if the BoH chooses not to keep the program, there would be a risk that failing systems could be transferred to new property owners without knowing there is an issue.
Land Desk graphic using data from the Bureau of Reclamation.
Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):
October 9, 2026
💀 DEADPOOL DATA DUMP 🌊
Lake Powell, the nation’s second largest reservoir, serves as a sort of barometer of the Colorado River watershed’s overall health. The reservoir and river have been struggling since the great aridification’s grim onset in 2002. While the river continues to flow, barely, the 2026 Water Year, characterized by one of the worst snow droughts on record, nearly finished off the reservoir. But in the end, it was saved from dropping to “de facto deadpool” by heavy rain at the beginning and end of the water year, and by larger-than-normal releases from upstream reservoirs.
4.46 million acre-feet: Total Lake Powell inflow from the Colorado, Dirty Devil, Escalante, and San Juan rivers in water year 2026. That’s the third lowest on record, behind 2002 and 2021. This is in spite of the fact that the 2026 snowpack was far lower than those two years, and melting mountain snowpack provides about 80% of the river’s water.
The Colorado River Basin experienced its warmest water year on record (in 131 years) in WY2026.
3.72 million acre-feet. Total Lake Powell unregulated inflow in water year 2026. This is the estimate of how much water would have flowed into the reservoir without any supplementary releases from upstream reservoirs. Which is to say, the feds robbed Flaming Gorge, Navajo, and Blue Mesa of about 750,000 acre-feet to save Powell from shrinking even more. That was bad for those upstream reservoirs and the irrigators, anglers, recreational users, and communities that rely on them, and there’s no way it can be repeated if this winter is below average.
6 million acre-feet: Total releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2026. This is the lowest release since the very early days of the dam (in the 1960s). This means less water in the Grand Canyon and less water flowing into Lake Mead.
181,111 acre-feet: Estimated amount of water that evaporated from Lake Powell in water year 2026. This is equivalent to more than half of Nevada’s total annual allotment from the Colorado River.
1.72 million acre-feet: Lake Powell’s water deficit — or the difference between outflows (incl. evaporation) and inflows — for water year 2026.
27 feet: Amount the surface level of the reservoir fell in water year 2026, putting it within seven feet of the level the federal governnment has chosen to “defend,” meaning they’ll pull out all the stops to keep it from dropping below that (for reasons the Land Desk has gone over many times before). The late September storms brought the level back up a couple of feet.
Anyone who lived through the 2002 water year probably thought it couldn’t possibly get any worse. Then along came 2026 and, voila! It was really, really bad — at least as far as the snow goes. And snow is really important, because it provides about 80% of the Colorado River’s flow.
But what’s this? The accumulated precipitation in 2026 was actually … not bad? Notice the big jumps at the very beginning of the water year (far left on the graph) and the very end.
THE NEWS: Not one, but two natural gas pipelines ruptured and erupted in flames at nearly the same time on opposite sides of New Mexico. One was in the Permian Basin in Lea County, where a gas line ruptured and caught fire, killing two people. Details of the incident have not been released, nor have the names of the victims. The other was near La Boca, New Mexico, just south of the Colorado line (and can be seen in the video above). It shot flames high into the sky and ignited a wildfire.
THE CONTEXT: Several years ago, as the oil boom in the Greater Chaco Region in northwestern New Mexico was nearing its peak, I sat down in the sleek, modern headquarters of the Bureau of Land Management’s Farmington field office with two BLM officials to talk about the oil boom. Before we got down to business, one of them asked: “Should we show him the scare map?”
The answer, I guess, was yes, because her colleague handed me the paper showing every well ever drilled in the San Juan Basin, with little red dots for gas, black ones for oil.
It was scary. The northern and central sections of the Basin were almost solid red; in the south and west, dense swarms of black dots strung out along the oil-bearing formations. Dark pinpricks surrounded Chaco Culture National Historical Park. Huerfano Mountain, or Dzil Na’oodilii, where First Woman and First Man and then Changing Woman lived — a sort of Garden of Eden in Navajo cosmology — was embroidered with red and black. The BLM office we sat in, on a fine piece of real estate in the upper-class part of town, has three wells within a quarter mile, and a pumpjack grinds away right next to a golf course green down the road.
To find a stretch of land anywhere in the core of the Basin that hasn’t been drilled or isn’t covered by roads, tanks, pipes or some other hydrocarbon-related infrastructure is nearly impossible — the infrastructure is the landscape. “We’ve got so much pipeline in the ground, it’s like rebar,” said the official, with a tinge of glee. “If you had an earthquake, the ground wouldn’t even shake.”
The official seemed less disturbed than simply fascinated by this fact, and also didn’t seem bothered that he and his colleagues were facilitating even more infrastructure by handing out drilling permits by the dozen and clearing the way for thousands of new wells and all the roads, gathering systems, and pipelines that go with it.
The San Juan structural basin is primarily in New Mexico. By US Geological Survey – Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the San Juan Basin Province of New Mexico and Colorado, 2002, USGS Fact Sheet FS-147-02, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5749904
I happen to be writing this at a campsite in the heart of the San Juan Basin gas field. While I can gaze out across the landscape and see nothing but beauty, including the evening’s last light on Dzil Na’oodilii, I am constantly reminded of the ubiquity of the hydrocarbon infrastructure all around me. From just over a little rise comes a slightly squeaky and clanky sound of inadequately lubed bearings, and the low hum and whir of dozens of near and distant pumps and compressors and fans serenades me as I watch the stars unfurl across the big bowl of the sky.
There’s another map of this area that’s even scarier than the one those folks showed me. It includes oil and gas-related “incidents,” which is to say ruptures and spills and explosions and fires and major leaks. Those, too, are all over the map, and happen with disturbing frequency. Usually they’re not as dramatic as the two explosions, but they can be harmful: hundreds of gallons of crude oil sloshed onto the ground and into waterways or aquifers, thousands of cubic feet of methane wafting into the air and adding the potent greenhouse gas to the atmosphere.
When I watch the debate over permitting reform, or read the thoughts of the Abundance crowd, a part of me agrees with the credo of building more. The idea of a new New Deal appeals to me, if done right. Line the highways and interstates with high-voltage transmission lines to carry clean energy across the region, build utility-scale solar on reclaimed coal mines and next to old coal plants and on marginal farmland, build factories to manufacture solar panels and batteries. It would create jobs, revitalize economies, and put more clean energy onto the grid.
Then I hear news about these explosions, look at the oil and gas incident map, and come out here and find that I can’t take a picture of spectacular and sacred landscapes without a tank or well or road or drill pad showing up in it, somewhere. The Abundance folks and the proponents of the permitting reform legislation, or the Bipartisan Affordability and Jobs Act, want to cover the landscape and our communities with even more of this stuff. While many of them support the bill because it would expedite clean energy development, they don’t mind the fact that it would do the same for natural gas and oil and petroleum pipelines. And, in the social media wars raging over this bill, they discount the concerns of environmental groups worry about the cost we pay when blindly adhering to the credo of Build More Stuff.
It makes me want to bring these folks out here to the San Juan Basin and take a little walk across this landscape, which is so suffused with beauty, but also cluttered with the detritus of society’s urge for more, always more.
📸 PARTING SHOT 🎞️
Angel Peak in the San Juan Basin at sunrise. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Click the link to read the report on the Getches-Wilkinson Center website (Eric Kuhn,* Anne Castle,† Jack Schmidt,‡ Kathryn Sorensen,§ Katherine Tara**). Here’s the Introduction:
October 6, 2026
SUMMARY OF KEY POINTS
In 1956, Congress authorized the Upper Initial Units—Flaming Gorge Reservoir, Navajo Reservoir, and the Aspinall Unit (UIUs)—for a variety of water use purposes in the Upper Colorado River Basin, including compliance with the 1922 Colorado River Compact (1922 Compact). The historical record is clear that the primary reason these reservoirs exist is to satisfy the math of the 1922 Compact and the obligations it imposed on the Upper Division States regarding flows at Lee Ferry.
The size and operation of the UIUs was based on the math of the river as we understood it from the 1930s through the mid-1950s (natural flows, projected uses, and the drought of record). This math no longer works. Total water use in the Colorado River Basin has consistently exceeded the available supply since 2000. Until this fundamental problem is solved, releasing water from the UIUs only delays necessary permanent reductions in water use and provides some degree of temporary management flexibility.
The 1948 Upper Basin Compact contemplates delivery of a required quantity of water at Lee Ferry. Article V gives the Upper Colorado River Commission (UCRC) the authority to allocate the capacity of the UIUs between providing water for use within the Upper Division States and providing water for common benefit purposes (delivering water to Lee Ferry). The policy has always been that 100% of the capacity of Navajo Reservoir is allocated for water use in New Mexico and 100% of the capacities of Blue Mesa and Flaming Gorge Reservoirs is allocated for common benefit purposes.
There is no doubt that Flaming Gorge and Blue Mesa Reservoirs exist to meet a portion of the obligation of the Upper Division States under Article III of the 1922 Compact. As of October 1, 2026, the ten-year Lee Ferry flow will be about 81.2 million acre-feet (MAF), and under the Lower Division States’ interpretation of the 1922 Compact, the Upper Division States may be in a compact deficit by 800,000 acre-feet (or more).
Yet over 2.0 MAF of water remains in active storage in Flaming Gorge Reservoir; more than enough water to erase the deficit and put the Upper Division states back in compact compliance as interpreted by the Lower Basin, if only for the short term.
The Upper Division States assert that they are in full compliance with the 1922 Compact.¹ Thus, in their view, delivering additional UIU water to Lee Ferry now would be a waste of stored water that they may need in the future. They question why yet another reservoir should be further drawn down when the Basin has not solved the fundamental problem of demand exceeding supply.
The stored water available in Flaming Gorge Reservoir has increased in importance to the entire basin. The Lower Division states view it as a source of water that can be delivered at Lee Ferry to supplement the releases from Lake Powell and thereby fulfill the obligations of the Upper Division States under the 1922 Compact. The Bureau of Reclamation is using Flaming Gorge as a source of water to protect critical infrastructure at Glen Canyon Dam, including hydropower generation. The Upper Division States view Flaming Gorge as a source of water for their current and future benefit; the water stored there could be used to comply with an adverse decision by a court or Special Master.
There remain unresolved issues concerning the use of water stored in the UIUs, with seemingly conflicting provisions in the 1948 Upper Basin Compact and the 1970 Long-Range Operating Criteria that currently govern the operation of these reservoirs. These issues could govern future releases from the UIUs but have not been explicitly addressed in the Post-2026 Record of Decision or the 2027-2028 Operating Rules.
The math of the 1922 Compact and its Lee Ferry flow provision, together with the directives of the Long-Range Operating Criteria, can no longer be reconciled with today’s hydrology and long-term average basin-wide consumptive use. The Basin States can argue about compliance with various conflicting provisions, but the fundamental problem is that the rules were designed for a different river. We need new operating rules that reflect the river we have today. The choice in finding these new rules is likely to be between a compromise that is painful to all parties or a zero-sum Supreme Court decision that determines who gets what little water there is and who does not.
INTRODUCTION²
The 1956 Colorado River Storage Project Act (1956 CRSPA)³ authorized construction of Glen Canyon Dam, which created Lake Powell, and three additional major upstream storage projects; Flaming Gorge Dam and Reservoir, Navajo Dam and Reservoir, and the Curecanti Unit (Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, and Crystal Dams and Reservoirs, now called the Aspinall Unit). The 1956 CRSPA was designed as a broad authorization for Upper Basin water development within the bounds of the 1922 Compact. The legislation authorized construction of storage dams, powerplants,⁴ numerous irrigation projects, and trans-basin diversions. Among the purposes of 1956 CRSPA were “regulating the flow of the Colorado River, storing water for beneficial consumptive use, making it possible for the States of the Upper Basin to utilize, consistently with provisions of the Colorado River Compact, the apportionments made to and among them in the Colorado River Compact and the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact, respectively . . ..”⁵ Flaming Gorge, Navajo, and the Aspinall Unit⁶ are collectively referred to as the “Upper Initial Units” (hereafter, UIUs). The three UIUs’ total live storage capacity is 6.15 million acre-feet (MAF), of which 5.10 MAF is “active” storage.⁷ On October 1, 2026, the total live storage in the three reservoir systems was 3.47 MAF. The Appendix contains a detailed description of each of the UIUs, with information on capacity, operations, and contract obligations.
For over 60 years, the three UIUs have been storing system water and producing hydroelectric power. These reservoirs, however, previously played a relatively small role in the operation of federal reservoirs of the Colorado River Basin (Basin) as a whole. The focus of the Basin’s competing interests has primarily been on operation of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam that form Lake Powell and Lake Mead, respectively. These two reservoirs are the largest in the United States and presently store approximately 66% of all the water in the 12 federal reservoirs reported in Reclamation’s 24-Month Studies. During the debate and development of major policy actions for the Colorado River, such as the 1970 Coordinated Long-Range Operating Criteria,⁸ 2001 Interim Surplus Guidelines,⁹ and the 2007 Interim Guidelines,¹⁰ the operations of the UIUs were barely mentioned. However, as storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead has declined, the importance of the UIUs has increased.
The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates each of the three UIUs under separate Records of Decision (ROD). Each is operated in a manner that balances many competing interests such as: storage for 1922 Compact compliance, the delivery of stored water for Upper Basin consumptive uses, the delivery of water in fulfillment of Tribal water right settlement obligations, flood control, hydropower generation, on-reservoir recreation, downstream river recreation, sport fisheries in the reservoir and in the stream below the reservoir, and the flow needs of threatened and endangered fishes. Reclamation operates the UIUs in a transparent manner, and each has a local constituency that is closely involved in how their project is operated.
The UIU obscurity honeymoon ended in 2019 when the Upper Division States proposed what became the Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA) as a component of their 2019 Drought Contingency Plan.¹¹ Arguably, under federal law, the Secretary of the Interior (Secretary) has broad authority to unilaterally move water from the UIUs downstream to Lake Powell. However, Reclamation took a more collaborative approach in the DROA: it was an inter-governmental agreement among the US (through Reclamation) and the states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. DROA authorized releases from the UIUs to the extent necessary to achieve the stated operational objective of minimizing the risk of Lake Powell falling below a target elevation of 3525 ft, and thereby:
helping to ensure the Upper Division States will continue fulfilling their interstate water compact obligations while exercising their rights to develop and utilize the Upper Basin’s Compact apportionment,
maintaining the ability to generate hydropower at Glen Canyon Dam, and
minimizing adverse effects on resources and infrastructure in the Upper Basin.¹²
DROA is subject to numerous constraints, including:
Water available in the UIU reservoirs,
Protection of authorized purposes of each CRSP unit (water supply, endangered species, recreation, hydropower, etc.),
Consultation with the Upper Division States and the Upper Colorado River Commission, and
Operating criteria established in the agreement and the associated Records of Decision.
In 2021, a total of 181,000 acre-feet of DROA releases were planned pursuant to the Secretary’s emergency authority: 125,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge, 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa, and 20,000 acre-feet from Navajo. Due to dry conditions, the 20,000 acre-feet release from Navajo Reservoir was cancelled, resulting in a total release of 161,000 acre-feet.¹³ DROA was implemented again in 2022 pursuant to consultation and agreement with the Upper Division States—approximately 463,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir were released. Both releases were intended to help maintain an operational target elevation of 3525 ft in Lake Powell.¹⁴ The DROA water released from Flaming Gorge Reservoir and Blue Mesa Reservoir in 2021 and 2022 was completely recovered after the moderately wet winter of 2023.¹⁵ DROA includes specific provisions addressing storage recovery after a DROA release is made. DROA expires contemporaneously with the 2007 Guidelines, but operations to recover storage releases made before Oct. 1, 2026, continue for as long as necessary.¹⁶
In response to the near-record low 2026 runoff and the unprecedented low reservoir levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, DROA releases were again implemented to supplement Lake Powell levels, and this time with even greater urgency and impact. To help maintain the elevation of Lake Powell above 3500 ft, on April 23, 2026, Reclamation began making additional DROA releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir.¹⁷ According to the September 2026 24-Month Study, the planned release from Flaming Gorge will total one million acre-feet between April 2026 and April 2027, but Reclamation retains the flexibility to adjust the timing and amount based on actual hydrologic conditions. Citing contractual obligations and unusually low storage, there are no planned DROA releases scheduled for 2026 from either Blue Mesa Reservoir or Navajo Reservoir.¹⁸
As annual Colorado River Basin runoff in the 21st century is consistently lower than in the 20th century and the “Ratchet Effect” is evident in reservoir storage basin-wide, disputes over the operation of the UIUs between the Upper Division States and Lower Division States have increased and indeed now are nearly as critical and strident as the disputes over water deliveries from Lake Powell to Lake Mead.¹⁹ The Lower Division States’ May 1, 2026, Proposal for Short-Term Operations of the Colorado River included proposed operating criteria for the UIUs that would expand their role in maintaining Lake Powell elevations and effectively subordinate the refilling of the UIUs until there is sufficient water in Lake Powell to support the delivery of 8.23 MAF per year.²⁰ The stated intent is “to share the benefit of improved hydrology between both basins.”²¹ On May 13th, 2026, the director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources told the Arizona Re-Consultation Committee that under Arizona’s interpretation of the Law of the River, the 1956 CRSPA specifically subordinates the delivery of contract water from the UIUs and the refilling of those reservoirs to water deliveries to the Lower Basin and Mexico under the 1922 Compact.²²
The Upper Division States believe the operation of the UIUs proposed by the Lower Division States is outside the scope of the Post-2026 NEPA process and cannot be incorporated into the Record of Decision as part of the 2027–2028 operations plan.²³ Further, some UCRC commissioners pointed out that under the 1956 CRSPA, there are multiple purposes of the UIUs including supporting consumptive uses within the Upper Basin.²⁴ At the 2026 Getches-Wilkinson Center Conference on the Colorado River, then-Acting Reclamation Commissioner Scott Cameron noted that Reclamation would aggressively operate the UIUs under their RODs to help manage Lake Powell levels, but added that the Secretary has, and will use, if necessary, emergency authorities to operate the UIUs outside the bounds of their RODs.²⁵
The Record of Decision (ROD) released on August 21, 2026, for the “Decision Framework for Colorado River Guidelines: Coordinated Operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead (2027–2036)” addressed the operation of the UIUs in a general manner. The ROD states:
“In carrying out the Decision Framework, the Department will continue to coordinate the operation of Lake Powell, Lake Mead, and the Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) Upper Initial Units – specific reservoirs above Lake Powell – pursuant to Section 602 of the Colorado River Basin Project Act of 1968 (CRBPA). Consistent with each facility’s existing ROD, the CRSP Upper Initial Units remain an operational tool available to the Secretary, when necessary, to release additional water to increase the elevation at Lake Powell to protect critical Federal infrastructure.”²⁶
While the Decision Framework Operational Sideboards of the ROD include the “Potential for maximum use of CRSP Upper Initial Units within their respective RODs to release additional water if needed to protect critical infrastructure,” they also allow for greater releases than described in their respective RODs:
“The Decision Framework establishes consultation thresholds associated with critical reservoir elevations. When projected reservoir conditions approach or fall below the consultation thresholds identified in the operational sideboards, the Secretary will coordinate and consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes and other affected parties, as appropriate, regarding additional operational actions that may be appropriate to reduce risks to critical Federal infrastructure and maintain system reliability.²⁷”
Further, “Such consultations may include consideration of additional reductions in water use, adjustments to coordinated reservoir operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, use of the CRSP Upper Initial Units, or other operational actions.”²⁸
Notably, the Decision Framework does not mention using the UIUs for making deliveries of water to Lee Ferry when there is insufficient water in Lake Powell for compliance with the 1922 Colorado River Compact (1922 Compact).
UIU storage recovery timing and amounts are not specified in the 2027-2028 Operating Guidelines,²⁹ but Interior’s response to the Lower Basin’s May 1st proposal stated that it:
“intends to refill the UIUs as soon as practicable to ensure water remains available for any additional infrastructure protection releases, while avoiding further risk to critical infrastructure during recovery operations. Based on prior operational experience, recovery operations were initiated once Lake Powell was no longer projected to continue declining. Reclamation would apply a similar approach for future UIU recovery operations and would consider actual hydrology and Basin-wide conditions before initiating recovery actions.³⁰”
What is clear is that the water stored in the UIUs is an increasingly important resource coveted by the Upper Division States, the Lower Division States, Basin Tribes,³¹ and Reclamation. It is also clear that each of these entities has a different perspective on the priorities under which the UIUs will be operated in the future. But it is important to recognize that while the water released by the UIUs in 2021, 2022, and 2026 provided critical benefits, especially for maintaining Lake Powell above target thresholds, DROA-like releases are not a solution to the Basin’s fundamental problem – systematic use of more than the available water supply. The operation of the UIUs may buy time and provide additional flexibility for reservoir system management, but it does not create any new water.
The debate over the future use of the UIUs has also exposed and amplified several long-standing disputes over the interpretation of the key provisions of the Law of the River,³² and ambiguities in the major federal legislation that authorized the construction and operation of the river’s major federal reservoirs. A primary disputed issue facing the Colorado River Basin today is how much water must flow at Lee Ferry to satisfy the Upper Division States’ 1922 Compact obligations. As stated above, delivering water to Lee Ferry was a core purpose for both Lake Powell and the three UIUs.³³
On August 24, 2026, the state of Nevada, the Colorado River Commission of Nevada, and the Southern Nevada Water Authority filed a complaint for declaratory action and injunctive relief requesting a declaration that the ROD, Final Environmental Impact Statement, and 2027-2028 Guidelines are in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and the Law of the River.³⁴ The complaint requests an injunction halting the implementation of the ROD and Operating Guidelines. Among other arguments, the plaintiffs claim that the Secretary failed to consider the exercise of authority to operate the UIUs in compliance with the Law of the River and NEPA.
The ROD states that the UIUs will be the subject of a new DROA agreement (referred to as a “framework”) that is currently being negotiated among Reclamation and the Upper Division States. This proposed agreement, drafts of which have not been released to the public, has already received criticism from the State of Arizona. If finalized, it could also be the subject of future litigation.³⁵ In the remainder of the paper, we explore the history of the UIUs from their conception to the present day to provide context and rationale for future operations.
* Retired General Manager, Colorado River Water Conservation District.
† Senior Fellow, Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado Law School; former US Commissioner, Upper Colorado River Commission; former Assistant Secretary for Water and Science, US Dept. of the Interior.
‡ Center for Colorado River Studies, Utah State University; former Chief, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center.
§ Director of Research, Kyl Center for Water Policy, Arizona State University; former Director, Phoenix Water Services.
** Staff Attorney, Utton Transboundary Resources Center, University of New Mexico.
1 The position of the Lower Division States is that the Upper Division States must not deplete the ten-year flow at Lee Ferry below 75 MAF PLUS deliver half of the annual treaty delivery to Mexico. The normal treaty delivery is 1.5 MAF, so the total ten-year delivery obligation could be 82.5 MAF. In recent years, under Minutes 323 and 330, the annual delivery has been less, but because these Minutes also create water that Mexico can store – calculating how much delivery the Upper Division States must share is not a simple matter. In any event, however, it appears that 81.2 MAF is less than the required 10-year flow pursuant to the Lower Division States’ legal position.
1 The Upper Division States do not agree that their obligation to Mexico under Article III(c) of the 1922 Compact is half of the annual delivery to Mexico under the 1944 Treaty every year. For more information, see Eric Kuhn, et. al, The 1922 Compact is Now the Obvious Elephant in the Negotiating Room, Oct. 6, 2025, https://www.colorado.edu/center/gwc/media/707.
2 This paper describes the authorization of the UIUs, the events leading up to that authorization, and some of the debate that resulted in the compromises in the 1956 Colorado River Storage Project Act (1956 CRSPA). The authors recognize that there are several detailed histories of CRSPA that address different aspects of its origins and come from a different perspective. Among these are: MARC REISNER. CADILLAC DESERT: THE AMERICAN WEST AND ITS DISAPPEARING WATER (1986, Viking Press); M. HARVEY, A SYMBOL OF WILDERNESS: ECHO PARK AND THE AMERICAN CONSERVATION MOVEMENT (Univ. N.M. Press 1994, 2nd Ed. Univ. of W.A. Press, 2000). Recognizing the value and insights of these previous works, this paper seeks to place the UIUs and their origins within the context of today’s hydrology and disputes.
4 The provision of hydroelectric power and resulting revenues prompted the label “cash register dam” to refer to projects in which the hydropower receipts finance other project construction. Long-Term Drought and Glen Canyon Dam: Potential Effects on Water Deliveries and Hydropower, Congressional Rsch. Serv., Apr. 4, 2023, at 4.
5 1956 CRSPA Preamble.
6 The three reservoirs in the Aspinall Unit are Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, and Crystal. Only Blue Mesa is operated for river regulation and storage. Future references to storage in the UIUs include Blue Mesa, Flaming Gorge and Navajo Reservoirs, but not Morrow Point and Crystal Reservoirs. A number of additional reservoirs were authorized by the 1956 CRSPA (and subsequent federal legislation) as components of participating projects. All of these reservoirs have specific project functions. Several of these reservoirs store a significant amount of water. Strawberry Reservoir, a component of the Central Utah Project, McPhee Reservoir, a component of the Dolores Project, and Fontanelle Reservoir, a component of the Seedskadee Project are three prominent examples.
7 The data sources for this paper are primarily the Hydrologic Database (HDB) and the 24-Month Studies, both maintained or prepared by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. We use “live storage” to mean the amount of storage reported in the HDB or alternately, the 24-Month studies. The standard terminology for reservoirs is that live storage is the amount that can be physically withdrawn or released downstream. Active storage is the amount above the power plant penstocks (or primary outlet works for Navajo Reservoir). Inactive storage is the amount between the power plant inlets, and the low-level outlet works. Below the low-level outlet is the “dead pool.” In theory, live storage = active plus inactive storage. In practice, however, each reservoir has a different design and different management issues. It is possible that some live storage may not be accessible for downstream delivery and use. The figures provided for live and active storage in the UIUs do not include Crystal and Morrow Point reservoirs.
14 UCRC Seventy-Fourth Annual Report (2023), page 15. With the DROA releases, Lake Powell reached a low of 3519.92 ft. (MSL), in early April 2023.
15 UCRC Seventy-Fifth Annual Report (2024), page 15. With an estimated natural flow of 17.3 MAF, 2023 was the third wettest year since 2000. We refer to it as a moderately wet year based on comparisons with the 20th Century record. With a natural flow of 17.3 MAF, it is about the same as the ten-year average from 1980-1989 – 17.2 MAF. USBR natural flow database, https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/NaturalFlow/index.html.
30 Department Response to Lower Division States’ Proposal for 2027-2028 Colorado River Operations, May 28, 2026.
31 The Ute Mountain Ute Tribe, Southern Ute Indian Tribe, Jicarilla Apache Nation, and Navajo Nation each have significant and unique interests in the operation of Navajo Reservoir. The Ute Indian Tribe of the Uintah and Ouray Reservation has asserted claims to water stored in Flaming Gorge Reservoir.
32 The Law of the River is a complex set of agreements, treaties, court decisions, and regulations that govern the allocation and use of water resources in the Colorado River Basin. A Colorado River Overview: Education, Facts & Statistics, https://coloradoriver.com/statistics-facts/.
³⁵ The term “framework” to describe the new DROA was used by the UCRC at its Sept. 15, 2026, Special Meeting. The comments by Tom Buschatzke were made at the August 24, 2026, meeting of the Arizona Reconsultation Committee.
“Much of the area reported the wettest September on record,” said David Byers, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Grand Junction.
The late-September rainstorms delivered steady precipitation over several days, and Southwest Colorado reported no flash floods, he said. The NWS was particularly concerned about the Gold Mountain burn scar near Ouray because many homes are in the area. Because the rain came in steadily over time, no flash floods were recorded, he said…
Durango-La Plata County Airport recorded rainfall totals of about 3.2 inches of rain from the late September storms, Byers said. In the mountains above 12,000 feet, that rain became snow. Vallecito Reservoir rose about 18 feet, or about 30,000 acre-feet, from this fall’s moisture. Although water levels have increased significantly, a decent winter is still important for the reservoir, said David Hofmann, superintendent of the Pine River Irrigation District…The water discharge of the Animas River, measured in cubic feet per second, went from about 230 cfs on Sept. 1 to a high of a little over 2,400 cfs on Tuesday after the storms. Vallecito Creek went from about 45 cfs on Sept. 1 to a peak of about 2,500 cfs on Sept. 17, according to USGS continuous data.
Hey, guess what! I friggin’ hate putting Tr*)*p in the headline of this newsletter once again. It makes me nauseous. But the thing is, his administration has significantly stepped up its attacks on the environment, public lands, and wildlife over the last few months. I don’t know if this is an attempt to distract from ridiculous wars and crazy gasoline prices, or if it’s a rush to roll back as many protections as possible before the midterms. Whatever it is, I have to respond and cover the news, especially when it’s as big and consequential as today’s.
Last week, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Director Brian Nesbitvik sent out a memo to directing agency leadership to effectively eviscerate the Endangered Species Act by exempting industry from its purview, leaving imperiled wildlife vulnerable to slaughter and even extinction, so long as the action wasn’t “intentionally directed against a particular animal or animals.”
The Endangered Species Act declares it “unlawful for any person” to “take” — meaning to harass, harm, pursue, hunt, shoot, wound, kill, trap, capture, or collect — any species listed under the ESA. Since the law was passed in 1973, “take” has always been unqualified and absolute, meaning that killing or harming one of these animals is illegal whether the animal is targeted or not. This not only protects the animals from hunters, say, but also from industrial activities that may incidentally kill protected species.
The Sept. 14 memo, however, directs the agency to adopt U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia’s interpretation of “take” in his dissenting opinion on a 1995 case, where he wrote that “take is a term of art” that “describes a class of acts (not omissions) done directly and intentionally (not indirectly and by accident) to particular animas (not populations of animals).”
Scalia expanded by writing that setting out poison with the intention of killing a wolf or other particular animal or chopping down a tree in which a bird is nesting would be a take if the “actor acted to reach the animal.” He then went on:
What this means is that hunting and killing a Valley Dixie toad to eat it would be a prohibited take. Wiping out the entire species with a lithium mine or geothermal operation would not constitute a take under this new interpretation because it isn’t targeting a specific animal. Therefore it would be acceptable under the ESA. The Trump administration gutted the Migratory Bird Act in a similar fashion last year.
Dixie Valley toads are found only in a hot-spring fed wetland in Dixie Valley, northeast of Fallon, Nevada. Dixie Valley toads were emergency listed as an endangered species in April 2022. Primary threats include geothermal development, disease, predation by other non-native frog species, groundwater pumping for human and agricultural use and climate change. By USFWS Pacific Southwest Region from Sacramento, US – Dixie Valley toad in its wetland habitat., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=120784750
To be clear, industry has killed endangered wildlife and migratory birds even under the stricter interpretation of “take.” But the prohibition on doing so, and the sometimes substantial fines that go along with it, incentivize industries to take measures to avoid incidental takes.
The new interpretation essentially gives industry carte blanche to harm or kill endangered species without accountability or recourse and reduces the ESA to no more than a ban on hunting certain species of wildlife. If this directive holds, the consequences will be dire.
🌵 Public Lands 🌲
President Donald Trump’s unlawful shrinkage of Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments went into effect Sept. 11. That same day, two separate parties filed 16 new mining claims with the San Juan County recorder in the reopened areas (but they are not yet in the BLM’s records).
George W. Schultz filed three claims in the Lockhart Basin area, which is on the northern end of the pre-shrinkage monument below and north of Needles Overlook. And Kimmerle Mining staked 13 claims in the Cottonwood Creek drainage near the Cheese & Raisins Hills (they had previously filed seven claims in that same area).
Schultz owns and operates a Jeep tour outfit in Moab and is active in the off-road vehicle advocacy community. His father was a geologist who staked dozens of claimsin southeastern Utah, and the younger Schultz has also staked claims in the past, including several inactive ones in Lockhart Basin, near the new ones. While the area had a few prospects, it was not an especially active area for uranium mining historically.
The Kimmerle family and its various firms hold hundreds of mining claims across southern and eastern Utah, including several within Bears Ears National Monument. Kyle Kimmerle proposed mining unpatented claims within the monument, but did not go through the process of proving the claim’s validity that was a prerequisite for obtaining an operating permit. Kimmerle then joined Utah’s lawsuit seeking to block the Biden administration’s restoration of the monument’s original boundaries.
Kyle Kimmerle’s firm, Three Step Resources, was the underground contractor at Energy Fuels’ La Sal Complex uranium mine in 2024 and early 2025, when the federal Mine Safety & Health Administration issued 16 citations for violations related to radon concentration and radon monitoring requirements, worker training, personal protection equipment use, and explosive material storage. In late 2024 Kimmerle was appointed to the board of Urano Energy, now Manhattan Uranium, which holds claims in the Lisbon Valley and near the San Rafael Swell.
In 2024, Sassy Gold was set to acquire 345 uranium mining claims on 8,206 acres in La Sal Creek, the Lisbon Valley, the Uravan Mineral Belt, and on the San Rafael Swell from Kimmerle Mining and its associated firm, Three Step Partnership. But a few months later, Sassy retracted its offer, saying it “identified a number of material political, environmental and technical risks associated with the properties” that “fundamentally altered the value of the proposed transaction.”
Kimmerle’s new claims are in an area that was heavily mined historically.
The rains have finally arrived in the Four Corners, which is a big relief, but also has had tragic consequences: A flash flood on Wednesday swept three people to their deaths near Newcomb, New Mexico, on the Navajo Nation. A flash flood watchremains in effect in northern New Mexico today.
As one might expect, the rains bolstered streamflows significantly. Here are a couple of graphs for some of the biggest beneficiaries of the extra precipitation:
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney). Here’s an excerpt:
September 24, 2026
Pagosa Country has experienced both record-low river levels and flooding that caused closures over the last week, including the ongoing closure of Chimney Rock National Monument. The San Juan River in downtown Pagosa Springs hit a new record low flow on Thursday, Sept 10, falling below 12 cubic feet per second (cfs), before trending back up with this week’s rains. On Friday, Sept. 11, the Piedra River near Arboles set a new record low flow of 10.4 cfs. The previous record for that day was set in 2018 at 17.3 cfs. By Wednesday morning, the San Juan River was flowing above 60 cfs, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and had an instantaneous reading over 55.1 cfs at 2 p.m. According to 90 water years of USGS records, the record low flow for Sept. 16 was set in 2018 at 12.9 cfs. The record high was recorded in 1970 at 1,190 cfs. The median cfs for that date is 85 cfs, and the mean is 144 cfs. As of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, the Piedra River was flowing at a rate of 25.2 cfs. According to 63 water years of USGS records, the record low for that date was set in 2018 at 11.2 cfs, and the record high was set in 1970 at 1,630 cfs. The mean flow for that date is 216 cfs, and the median flow is 123 cfs. Pagosa County experienced multiple rain events beginning on Monday, Sept. 14, with reports from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network in Archuleta County showing anywhere from just under an inch to more than 2 inches of rain received from Monday to Wednesday.
Colorado Drought Monitor map September 22, 2026.
The most recent drought map released by the U.S. Drought Monitor was published on Sept. 10, before the area’s most recent rain events, and shows just over 50 percent of Archuleta County being in a stage three, extreme drought. That was up from just over 22 percent of the county falling under extreme drought as of Sept. 1.
Durango experienced a drier-than-normal August…The month of August accumulated 0.28 inches of precipitation, 0.12 inches of which occurred Monday. Monday was the highest precipitation day of August, Gillian Felton, a National Weather Service meteorologist in the Grand Junction office, said. August traditionally averages closer to 1.3 inches of rain, according to the weather service, and precipitation this August was down about an inch comparatively. A plethora of reasons contributed to the dry spell, said Brooke Scholtens, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Grand Junction.
“For the earlier parts of the summer, we were experiencing those drought-like conditions,” she said. “So that makes things incredibly difficult, especially since the pushes that we did see of the monsoon, most of the time, we had dry air in the way that was kind of preventing moisture from entering the region.”
This monsoon has been drier than traditional years, Scholtens said. She added that the weather service measures moisture at Durango-La Plata County Airport, so some areas around Durango may have differing precipitation levels…Monsoons don’t have a specific end date, but it usually wraps up mid- to late-September, Scholtens said…According to the National Integrated Drought Information System, 91.6% of La Plata County is in a severe drought and 8.4% of the county is in an extreme drought. Durango has been in Stage One water restrictions since early April as part of the city of Durango’s Drought Management Plan.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
At recent meetings, the San Juan Water Conservancy District (SJWCD) and the Pagosa Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) boards of directors approved applications for findings of reasonable diligence for several water rights held by the districts…At an Aug. 13 meeting, the PAWSD Board of Directors unanimously approved applications for findings of reasonable diligence for three sets of water rights, including rights for the San Juan River intake, a group of rights associated with the Dry Gulch Reservoir project that the SJWCD leads development on, and a second enlargement on a water right in Dutton Ditch. The Dry Gulch and Dutton Ditch water rights are held by both PAWSD and the SJWCD, while the San Juan right is exclusive to PAWSD. PAWSD board member Bill Hudson pointed out that these water rights are not rights PAWSD is currently using, but are rights that could be developed in the future if the district needs them…At an Aug. 17 meeting, the SJWCD Board of Directors also unanimously approved diligence filings for the Dry Gulch and Dutton Ditch water rights. SJWCD legal counsel Jeffrey Kane explained to the board that he would file the joint application for the Dry Gulch water rights, while PAWSD’s legal counsel would file the application for the Dutton Ditch water rights.
At its Aug. 17 meeting, the San Juan Water Conservancy District (SJWCD) Board of Directors moved forward with contracting engineering firm RJH Consultants to perform a water demand study for the district’s reservoir project. SJWCD board president Randy Cooper opened discussion of the study by summarizing the history of the study, which the board delayed approving at its last meeting since board treasurer Joe Tedder was not at the meeting and had not had an opportunity to review the contract. He explained that the $147,400 cost of the study would be split between 2026 and 2027, which RJH had agreed to. In response to a question from Tedder, Cooper stated that RJH would be ready to start work on the study immediately upon board approval…The board agreed that RJH should provide monthly updates on the project to ensure that the project adapts to any changing circumstances or barriers the district encounters, which Jones raised concerns about.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
The Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) Board of Directors heard an update on drought conditions and continued discussions of violation enforcement at its Aug. 13 meeting…PAWSD is currently in drought stage two of its four-stage drought management plan. PAWSD District Manager Andrew Connor stated that PAWSD currently has “really good compliance” and saw a drop in water sales in July, meaning that public education is working, even if revenues for the district also decreased…PAWSD board member Glenn Walsh asked if the revenue decrease from lowered water use in July was compensated for by surcharges for high water use, which staff confirmed. PAWSD board member Alex Boehmer commented that, since the district is getting compliance with its regulations, he did not think implementing violation letters and fines is necessary. He added that he would also like to authorize Connor to move the district in and out of drought stages when necessary. Tautges commented that he would only want this authorization for reducing the drought stage and not for increasing it, which should require a board vote.
The Bureau of Reclamation’s 10-year plan for managing Colorado River flows seeks to preserve enough water behind the Hoover Dam to sustain electricity generation. (Angus M. Thuermer Jr./WyoFile)
A federal drought plan for the Colorado River and its tributaries in Wyoming shouldn’t stop Wyoming from building a new dam and reservoir in Carbon County, two Western water experts say.
The Bureau of Reclamation plan for the sweeping basin focuses on maintaining enough water in Lake Powell and Lake Mead to generate electricity and prevent degradation of critical infrastructure, professors from Utah and Arizona said last week.
The 10-year framework to manage water storage and releases in the complex seven-state, two-nation system seeks to balance predictability and flexibility in two-year increments. It also acknowledges that the government has little to no authority over water use in headwater states Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico, said Sarah Porter, the director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University’s Morrison Institute.
“One way of reading the final environmental impact statement,” Porter said, “is the Bureau’s determination that it doesn’t really have any authority to limit water use in the headwaters.” [ed. emphasis mine]
A controversial dam proposed on the West Fork of Battle Creek, which flows into the Little Snake River, above, and the Colorado River could still be built despite a drought that prevents Lake Powell and Lake Mead from filling. (EcoFlight)
Drought will likely cause agricultural stress in Arizona, Nevada and California, threatening the supply of winter vegetables and possibly other crops, she said.
“We probably won’t be eating as many salads,” she said, because Arizona is where winter lettuce is harvested. “It’s all grown in Yuma.”
More important for Wyoming might be that the Bureau of Reclamation’s final environmental impact statement recognizes the independence of headwater, or upper-division, states to essentially use water as they see fit. Efforts to conserve water in the Upper Basin “are not within the scope of this EIS,” the federal document states.
So while farmers downstream may see their traditional supplies cut, Wyoming forges ahead with plans for the 10,000-acre-foot West Fork dam and reservoir in Carbon County where 6,000 acre-feet a year would be poured onto fields for late-season irrigation on ranches.
Energy equation
The Bureau is imposing the plan after the seven states failed to agree on how to share Colorado River flows as drought crimps traditional allotments that were based on too-rosy estimates.
“We have the lowest reservoir storage we’ve ever seen,” said David Rosenberg, a Utah State University professor and water researcher. “We have very low inflows.”
He and Porter spoke in a Zoom webinar hosted by SciLine, a nonprofit that connects reporters with scientists.
The two called the Bureau of Reclamation plan a decision-making framework for distributing water in the three Lower Basin states — initially for two years.
“It doesn’t place the basin on a path to stabilizing the system at all,” Porter said. “It doesn’t resolve conflict at all. It doesn’t achieve the [long-term] things that the basin really needs at this point.” [ed. emphasis mine]
The Colorado River Basin spans seven U.S. states and part of Mexico. Lake Powell, upstream from the Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, are the two principal reservoirs in the Colorado River water-supply system. (Bureau of Reclamation)
But the plan is “a very clear statement,” Rosenberg said, “of how they’re going to protect infrastructure.”
That infrastructure includes the two major dams, associated power plants and canals that would become useless, even degraded, if the water levels in Powell and Mead drop below critical levels. With the plan, Rosenberg said, the Bureau states: “We’re still going to be generating hydropower.”
View below Flaming Gorge Dam from the Green River, eastern Utah. Photo credit: USGSBlue Mesa Dam. Photo credit: ReclamationThe outflow at the bottom of Navajo Dam in New Mexico. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism
Powell’s Glen Canyon and Mead’s Hoover dams can generate some $443 million of market-price electricity a year when operating fully, according to calculations from the Bureau of Reclamation and theU.S. Energy Information Administration. To keep those two reservoirs flush, the Bureau will release water from Wyoming’s Flaming Gorge Reservoir and from Colorado’s Blue Mesa Reservoir and New Mexico’s and Colorado’s Navajo Reservoir.
Beyond that, the Bureau’s plan targets the three Lower Basin states for reductions, depending on water in the river system and reservoirs.
Headwater states largely rely on stream and river flows determined by spring runoff. The at-risk region in Wyoming includes the Green River and its tributaries and the Little Snake River in Carbon County.
In contrast, the Lower Basin “gets all of its water, Colorado River water, from the reservoirs,” Porter said. It’s a lot more complicated to curtail Upper Basin use “than simply to not deliver water out of a reservoir,” she said. “And that’s a sore point with the Lower Basin.”
The two professors predicted a fight. “We expect they’ll be challenging this administrative process,” Porter said of the lower division states’ reaction to the Bureau’s EIS.
Compact call coming
There’s more on the horizon too.
“I also expect that within the next year and a half, or maybe two years, there will be what we call a compact call,” Porter said, “a demand from the Lower Basin for water that the Lower Basin contends the Upper Basin is obligated to deliver.
“That challenge will occur in the United States Supreme Court and that could take 10, 20, 30 years.”
Under the 1922 Colorado River Compact and associated agreements, the upper division states can’t diminish the flow from Lake Powell below 7.5 million acre-feet annually, calculated on a 10-year rolling average. That’s half what engineers originally calculated the watershed would produce; half belonging to the headwater states, half to the Lower Basin. That estimate is now considered to have been exuberantly optimistic. [ed. emphasis mine]
“We really need to figure out a way collectively to be reducing demand in the Colorado River by at least 3 million acre-feet out of the 15 million,” Porter said, “and that probably can’t all fall on the Lower Basin.
“The Lower Basin,” she said, “didn’t agree to be junior to the Upper Basin.”
If Upper Basin states don’t deliver the 7.5 million acre-feet past the Lee Ferry gauging station just below Lake Powell, headwaters curtailment will begin, starting with the most recent, or junior, water-right holders.
Until then, conservation in Wyoming will be voluntary, generally meaning that if an irrigator or other user forgoes their water right, they will need to be paid. In previous trial conservation programs, that has cost $500 an acre foot.
But a compact call by Lower Basin states would lead to curtailment — a mandatory cutting off of Upper Basin water use starting with the most recent, or junior, rights’ holders. Long-established ranches and irrigators hold senior rights while Wyoming municipalities and industries in the Green River Basin are likely among the first to be curtailed.
The proposed dam would be 264 feet high, 700 feet long and made out of concrete. (Major King for WyoFile)
Under the “Law of the River,” Wyoming has rights — on paper — to 14% of the Upper Basin’s 7.5 million acre-feet annually. That’s about 1 million acre-feet. But the state engineer estimated in 2010 that Wyoming’s rights amount to 847,000 acre-feet a year, according to the state’s 2010 plan for the basin. Wyoming uses 680,076 acre-feet and has rights to another 166,924, the latest plan states.
That makes the 100,000 or so Wyomingites who rely on or use Green River water relatively water rich compared to the 40 million down-streamers who rely on the river for some or all of their agricultural and municipal needs. In essence, 100,000 Wyomingites have rights to almost 1 million acre-feet while 39.9 million down-streamers divvy up 7.5 million acre-feet.
The implications go beyond the scarcity of your garden-variety salad.
“If there are big reductions in water supplies to those [Lower Basin] areas, there really will be impacts on our food supply nationally, not to mention other impacts,” Porter said.
Phoenix reclaims wastewater through a multi-step filtration process – settling, aeration, disinfection – turning it into clean water for parks, cooling, and natural restoration.
Recycling water
While the prospect of southwestern metropolises crashing headlong into ugly sewerage problems caused by the crisis would seem to loom, don’t put all your money into wag-bags and porta potties yet. The municipalities are figuring out how to cope.
“Those cities are making massive investments in advanced water purification to treat reclaimed water to potable to reduce reliance on annual deliveries of Colorado River water,” Porter said. “That access to other water supplies or other water management strategies isn’t really available to agricultural water users or, to a great extent, the tribes who are significant rights holders to Colorado River water.
“We may see impacts to cities really smoothed out and not be very disruptive,” she said. “If we do have disruptive impacts, they will probably fall on rural areas and tribal communities in the Lower Basin.”
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Josh Pike and Randi Pierce). Here’s an excerpt:
July 29, 2026
Beginning July 22, area jurisdictions began rescinding Stage 2 fire restrictions, with Stage 1 restrictions remaining in effect in much of the area…On July 22, it was announced that improved fire weather conditions and near containment on the Ferris Fire had prompted Bureau of Land Management (BLM) officials to ease fire restrictions and reopen public lands within the Tres Rios Field Office. Effective July 22, Stage 2 fire restrictions were lifted on BLM-administered public lands managed by the Tres Rios Field Office, including Canyons of the Ancients National Monument…On Thursday, July 23, the Archuleta County Sheriff’s Office (ACSO) announced it had, in collaboration with the Pagosa Fire Protection District, rescinded Stage 2 fire restrictions effective immediately…The following day, Friday, July 24, the Town of Pagosa Springs announced it had rescinded Stage 2 fire restrictions effective that day…On Wednesday, July 29, the San Juan National Forest announced it would be rescinding Stage 2 fire restrictions effective 12:01 a.m. Thursday, July 30, on all National Forest System lands…
Colorado Drought Monitor map July 28, 2026.
According to the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS), areas in Archuleta County received from .91 inches to 3.15 inches of rain between July 15 and July 29. Despite the recent rains, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) remains in stage two drought restrictions, and the area remains in severe drought. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 100 percent of Archuleta County remained in severe drought as of July 21, with 1.90 percent of the county — the northeast corner — falling under extreme drought. The week prior, 36.15 percent of the county fell under extreme drought…
According to the U.S. Geological Survey water monitoring gauge at the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs and the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, although the San Juan has remained at a very low but generally steady level, it did appear to hit record low levels several times over the last week. According to the River Forecast Center, on July 24, the river hit about 19 cubic feet per second (cfs), below the 2002 low of 21. The following day, it hit about 17 cfs, below the 2002 low of 19 cfs. On July 28 at 11:15 a.m., the river was recorded running at 15 cubic feet per second (cfs), 0.5 cfs above the previous record low set in 2002.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
This week, rain returned to Pagosa Country, bringing some relief from the dry heat that dominated June and early July and heralding the start of the summer monsoon season. Weather modeling by the National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) suggests that the summer monsoon season is likely to bring average or above average precipitation to the region — a bounty compared to the approximately 25 to 50 percent of average precipitation Archuleta County received in last month. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts that drought conditions in the area will improve by Sept. 30, although it suggests that current severe and extreme drought levels calculated by the U.S. Drought Monitor will persist through July.
The Pagosa Area Water & Sanitation District is currently in drought stage two, which includes a number of restrictions on outdoor irrigation, as well as additional fees for high water use. In stage two, irrigation is allowed only between 9 p.m. and 9 a.m. every other weekday, with even-numbered addresses able to irrigate on even-numbered days and odd-numbered addresses on odd-numbered days. Weekend irrigation is prohibited. However, drip irrigation and hand watering edible or ornamental gardens is allowed at all times. Residential water use above 4,000 gallons per month is subject to a two times rate multiplier. PAWSD District Manager Andrew Connor explained that, while the rains associated with the monsoons might eventually impact the district’s drought restrictions, changes would require a large amount of rain and would not be immediate. In the summer, the drought stage is primarily driven by the water level in Hatcher Reservoir, flows in the San Juan River and the date…
PAWSD District Engineer Justin Ramsey explained that the district’s drought management plan focuses on irrigation since it composes a large portion of the district’s water use in the summer and because losing green lawn grass or other plants has a smaller impact on people’s lives than restrictions on showering, dish washing or other indoor water uses…The drought stages in the district’s drought management plan align with this goal, imposing progressively tightening restrictions on when irrigation can occur while placing no restrictions on indoor water use except increasing fees for high water consumption. However, for all but the most severe drought stage, these restrictions only cover irrigation done with sprinklers and other automated devices, with the use of drip irrigation devices and hand watering allowed at all times…Manual and drip irrigation encourage people to be more conscious about how they use water by involving them more deeply in the process and requiring more hands-on time, he added. Another way to increase the water available for gardens and landscaping without paying more fees is to reduce water waste in your home, Connor and Ramsey highlighted.
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Josh Pike). Here’s an excerpt:
July 8, 2026
On July 6, Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) District Engineer Justin Ramsey issued a clarification to the district’s stage two drought restrictions, indicating that outdoor irrigation is allowed between 9 p.m. and 9 a.m. In his clarification, he explains that the district’s drought management plan had sections that indicated that irrigation was restricted to between 6 p.m. and 9 a.m. and sections that indicated the limitation was between 9 p.m. and 9 a.m. He adds that the district has now settled on the latter interpretation, which is different from some previous sources of information about the drought restrictions. The other restrictions for drought stage two remain the same. Irrigation is allowed every other day at the designated times on weekdays, with odd-numbered addresses watering on odd-numbered days and even-numbered addresses watering on even-numbered days. Weekend watering is prohibited. Edible and ornamental gardens can still be hand watered or drip irrigated. Residential water use above 4,000 gallons a month is subject to a two times rate multiplier under drought stage two. Restaurants are required to serve water only on request, and hotels are encouraged to only replace towels and bed linens for new guests and at the request of current guests. The goal of drought stage two is to reduce water usage by 20 to 30 percent, according to the PAWSD drought management plan…
The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS’s) water flow monitoring data is the primary window into local river flows, which factor into PAWSD’s drought stage calculations. The primary monitoring station for the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs is located underneath the bridge where U.S. 160 crosses the river near 1st Street. The reported flows have undergone significant recalibrations this month, with flows in the San Juan River appearing at times in later June to drop below the historic low flows in 2002 before being revised upward. These revisions are partially driven by last year’s flooding events, explained Kyle Raimer, who works as a hydrologic technician for the USGS Colorado Water Science Center’s Western Colorado Office in Durango. Raimer stated that the monitoring system sends out a radar pulse every 15 minutes, which contacts the water below the monitor and returns to the sensor, allowing it to measure how high the water level is. The flooding event and other construction work near the site have changed the shape of the channel and altered this relationship between water level and river discharge, Raimer indicated. USGS staff are working to rebuild accurate estimates by taking manual river flow measurements of the river at different water levels, Raimer stated, which can then be used to establish the correct correlations between water level and discharge.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney). Here’s an excerpt:
July 1, 2026
The Archuleta County Board of Health (BoH) held a special meeting on June 15 to consider approval of Regulation 43, pertaining to on-site wastewater treatment system (OWTS), also known as septic systems…
According to the regulation attached to the meeting agenda, “The purpose of these Regulations is to establish the minimum standards for the location, design, construction, performance, installation, alteration, and use of OWTS with a design capacity equal to or less than 2,000 gallons per day within the Jurisdiction.”
[…]
It also states that the regulations apply to all OWTS in the unincorporated areas of the county and over all municipal corporations within the territorial limits of Archuleta County.
Furthermore, it explains that an “OWTS permit must not be issued to any person when the subject property is located within a municipality or special district that provides public sewer service, except where such sewer service to the property is not feasible according to the determination of the municipality or special district, or the permit is otherwise authorized by the municipality or special district.”
The document explains that Archuleta County Water Quality Department “may enter upon a private property at reasonable times and upon reasonable notice for the purpose of determining whether or not an operating OWTS is functioning in compliance with the OWTS Act and applicable regulations adopted pursuant thereto and the terms and conditions of any permit issued and to inspect and conduct tests in evaluating any permit application.”
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
The Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) entered stage two drought on June 22 due to decreasing water levels in Hatcher Reservoir and the San Juan River. Drought stage two imposes a variety of additional restrictions on water use in addition to the restrictions from drought stage one…
On Wednesday morning, the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs was flowing at approximately 35 cubic feet per second (cfs), about 5 cfs above the record low flow of 30.4 cfs, which the river reached in 2002. The mean flow for the river on June 24 is approximately 952 cfs…Two of PAWSD’s three water plants draw water from different locations on the San Juan River, while the third takes water from Hatcher Reservoir. The water level in Hatcher on June 22 was about 13 inches below full pool, which is down about 5 inches from June 9. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), 64 percent of Archuleta County is in severe drought, while 36 percent of the county is in extreme drought.
At its June 11 meeting, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) Board of Directors authorized the district manager to enter stage two drought when the appropriate trigger points are reached, which staff predicted will be in the near future. District Engineer Justin Ramsey explained to the board that, based on water levels in Hatcher Reservoir and the San Juan River, the district was still in drought stage one, but was “just a couple inches away” from having to enter stage two according to the district’s drought management plan. Both the San Juan River and Lake Hatcher are sources for the water processed at PAWSD’s water treatment plants.
Ramsey predicted that the district would likely enter drought stage two within a week, adding that Hatcher Reservoir is losing between a quarter and a half inch in water level a day and a drop of 3 inches would place the district in drought stage two. He requested that the board authorize District Manager Andrew Connor to move the district into drought stage two once the trigger points are reached, avoiding a need for the board to have a special meeting in the near future to authorize the move.
On June 2, the Pagosa Springs Town Council heard a presentation from Al Pfister, board president of the Upper San Juan Watershed Enhancement Partnership (WEP), about an application for the state-run Wildfire Ready Action Plan (WRAP) grant. The WRAP grant is a state of Colorado program, with its website describing the program as “locally-developed wildfire ready action plans (WRAP), refining the statewide susceptibility evaluations to reflect local values and community-scale data.” Pfister explained that the total project cost for WEP to do a watershed fire action plan for the Upper San Juan watershed would be about $400,000, and the grant would require a match of about $100,000. He noted the benefits of a WRAP would include identifying critical infrastructure that may be susceptible to risk and developing plans for roads and trails that may be impacted by post-wildfire effects. The fostering of collaboration between planners and emergency management agencies would also be a benefit to the community, he stated.
He explained what a WRAP actually does, saying it fosters stakeholder engagement, collects data and resources for the watershed, and organizes that data into a central database for use down the road. He added that the models could help predict how a watershed will behave in a post-wildfire situation and that the action plan would include both pre-and post-wildfire projects to mitigate damage to the watershed. He added that he was not at the meeting asking for funding at this time, but wanted to give the council a “heads up” that this was coming up.
The Bureau of Reclamation has adjusted the release schedule from Navajo Dam due to downstream maintenance activities. On Tuesday, May 5th at 4:00 AM, the release will increase from 450 to 500 cubic feet per second (cfs). A further increase to 550 cfs is planned for Thursday, May 7th at 4:00 AM.
Releases are made for the authorized purposes of the Navajo Unit, and to attempt to maintain a target base flow through the endangered fish critical habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to Lake Powell). The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout the critical habitat area from Farmington to Lake Powell.
This scheduled release change is subject to changes in river flows and weather conditions. If you have any questions, please contact Conor Felletter (cfelletter@usbr.gov or 970-637-1985), or visit Reclamation’s Navajo Dam website at https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html
When Donald Trump was elected president for the second time, we all knew what was coming to the nation’s public lands: The administration would favor extractive uses by eviscerating environmental protections, rolling back regulations, and leasing out as much land as possible while handing out drilling permits like Shriners throwing candy at a parade.
Yet there was one realm where I figured the administration couldn’t bestow any more deregulatory gifts, namely public lands grazing. It’s not that I thought Trump would clamp down on the destructive practice, it’s just that I figured the status quo was about as permissive as it could get. Past administrations, be they Democratic or Republican, have generally shied away from updating or reforming public lands grazing policies out of fear of inflaming the West’s cowboy culture — even if it is based largely on myth.
But Trump, his Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins are intrepidly going where previous administrations did not dare: grazing reform. Well, sort of, though maybe not in the way public lands lovers might have hoped. In fact, they are doing their best to make grazing policy even more lax with a goal of getting more cattle out there to trample public lands, cryptobiotic soils, and cultural sites.
Last month, Burgum and Rollins announced an MOU between the two agencies designed to “boost the supply of American born, raised, and harvested beef” by cutting “bureaucratic red tape” and giving the livestock industry more control. The MOU has a goal of “maintaining grazing capacity wherever possible, including no net loss of Animal Unit Months within allotments,” even if those allotments are degraded or in poor health. In Burgum’s words, one goal is to “preserve America’s ranching heritage for generations to come.” Forgive me for getting anxious whenever I see “heritage” used in conjunction with public lands.
“Today’s signing sends a clear message: the Trump administration is putting America’s farmers and ranchers first,” said Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. Which brings up the question of what message the administration was sending in February when Trump signed an executive order to quadruple beef imports from Argentina in an effort to keep Big Macs affordable.
🗺️ Messing with Maps 🧭
To help it carry out its mission, the Bureau of Land Management has released an interactive map aimed at putting more cattle and sheep back on public lands. The “federal grazing lands potentially available” map shows allotments that have been vacated, often as a result of deals brokered by environmentalists, with the intent of peddling the tracts to livestock operators. While there’s no guarantee that the BLM would lease out all of the vacant tracts, the presence on the map of the ones vacated for environmental purposes is enough to set off alarm bells.
Grazing allotments listed as “potentially available” for leasing on the BLM’s new map. The five parcels closest to Silverton were retired in 2023 to protect bighorn sheep. Source: BLM
For example, the map includes 10 allotments in the high country around Silverton, Colorado, totaling about 70,000 acres. In 2023, the National Wildlife Federation paid the Etchart Sheep Ranch to vacate five of these allotments in an effort to give Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep more breathing room and protect them from diseases transmitted by domestic sheep. The deal was made with the hope that the leases would be retired permanently. Yet the inclusion on the map indicates they could see domestic sheep once again, emphasizing the need for legislation that would make such retirements perpetual.
Also on the map are the Flodine Park and Yellowjacket allotments in Canyon of the Ancients National Monument near the Colorado-Utah border. In 2005, a rancher gave up the allotments, north and south of McElmo Canyon, respectively, and sold 4,500 acres of adjacent private land to the BLM to add to the national monument. Both allotments and the private land contain a number of intermittent streams, shallow canyons, and numerous cultural sites. They had been grazed relentlessly for decades prior, and showed the wear and tear—much of the cryptobiotic soil had long before been trampled and destroyed and invasive cheat grass had infiltrated the grazed areas. An archaeological assessment conducted later found grazing had damaged dozens of sensitive and cultural sites in the areas.
The Yellowjacket and Flodine Park allotments in Canyons of the Ancients National Monument. They have been vacant since 2005, and a previous effort to lease them out again was halted. Now it looks like they may be back on the block. Source: BLM
In 2010, the BLM, which manages the monument, issued a new resource management plan, which allowed for continued grazing, but also opened the door to permanently retiring vacant grazing allotments if they fail to meet BLM rangeland health standards or when grazing is negatively impacting cultural sites. Five of the 28 allotments in the most heavily visited areas—including Sand Canyon—were cancelled, but not the Flodine Park and Yellow Jacket allotments, which were still in retirement at the time.
Instead, the local county commissioners and a group of ranchers pressured the BLM to reauthorize grazing on both allotments—to bring them out of retirement, if you will. The BLM acquiesced, but environmentalists and tribes with roots in the area fought back, forcing the agency to do a more thorough environmental analysis of the proposal. The opposition was enough to prompt the agency at least to delay issuing any leases, and the allotments remain in limbo.
Meanwhile, a team of scientists assessed the healing process on the Flodine Park and Yellow Jacket allotments, which by then had been cow-free for 11 years (though feral horses had grazed there). They compared biocrusts on those allotments to a fenced enclosure that hadn’t seen grazing for 53 years and a plot that was being actively grazed. What they found was both predictable and remarkable: The longer a plot went without cows, the healthier it was, as summed up by these graphs.
Source: Grazing, Rest, and Biological Soil Crust in Canyons of the Ancients National Monument Marc Coles-Ritchie, Lior Gross and Mary O’Brien, Grand Canyon Trust.
While the natural landscape can eventually heal itself, livestock’s damage to the cultural landscape is irreversible. BLM surveys identified 266 cultural sites on the two allotments, including 35 with “standing architecture.” At least 43% of those had been damaged by livestock.
Now what’s left may be in danger, too, at least if those allotments’ presence on the new map is any indication. And guess what? Packing these allotments isn’t going to make that steak any cheaper. Only about 1% of American beef is grazed on public lands.
Mt. Blue Sky at 14,130 feet in elevation on April 22, 2026. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
⛈️ Wacky Weather Watch ⚡️
If you were to get all of your information about the West’s climate from daily weather reports and road condition websites, you might think that April snow showers and deep freezes had ended the snow drought and would lead to big May streamflows. After all, it snowed enough in Colorado to turn roads to slip-and-slides and causing a 75-car pileup on I-70 near the Eisenhower Tunnel. The temperatures dropped low enough to wipe out most of the fruit blossoms the March heat wave tricked into blooming early. Only the farmers who used extraordinary measures — starting fires or smudge pots in the orchards, running wind machines, etc. — could save some of their summer harvest.
Sunset over the San Juans. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Sure, the snow that did fall in April helped, but only enough to elevate snowpack levels to, well, the lowest on record (only by a slightly smaller margin than before). And the freeze was deep, which helped extend the spring runoff in the few areas where there was any snow left. But even there, I suspect that peak runoff has already come and gone (though I’m not calling the Predict the Peak contest yet!).
I flew over Colorado’s mountains the other day and was rather shocked at the dearth of snow, even on the highest peaks. Mt. Blue Sky, formerly Mt. Evans, had only a few patches of white left — at 14,130 feet in elevation. Everything below 10,000 feet appeared to be snowless. While the San Juan Mountains appeared to be in slightly better shape, it was still looking pretty dry. The Animas River watershed’s snowpack remains lower than it was on 2002 on this date.
At an April 9 meeting, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) Board of Directors approved revisions to the district’s drought management plan. District Engineer Justin Ramsey opened discussion of the plan, which he explained was a complete rewrite of the previous plan and was adopted in 2020 with a stipulation that it be reexamined in 2026. He added that the district also had to implement the plan in 2025 due to dry conditions, which gave additional insights into how the plan functions. He explained that he recently reconvened the committee that drafted the plan, including PAWSD board members, water experts in the community, business owners and other community members. Ramsey stated that, although there were some changes recommended to the plan, it has, overall, been highly successful. He explained that the drought stages outlined in the plan are entered based on triggers, which are different depending on the time of year.
Early in the year, he stated, the triggers are the snowpack in the mountains, measured by the amount of snow water equivalent (SWE) at the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service SNOwpack TELemetry Network (also commonly known as SNOTEL) station on Wolf Creek Pass and the date when the district’s water supply is cut off on Four Mile Creek due to other senior water users diverting water…If specific SWE levels or a call on Four Mile do not occur by specific dates in the spring, the plan shifts to a different set of drought triggers based on water levels in Lake Hatcher (one of PAWSD’s primary reservoirs), water flows in the San Juan River and the drought stage for Archuleta County designated by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). He explained that the amount of water in Lake Hatcher is weighted the most heavily, with flows in the San Juan being the next most influential factor and drought designation being the least. He added that the different drought stages come with different drought surcharges and water rate adjustments…He explained that the first drought stage (voluntary drought) aims to cut water use by 10 percent, while the most severe drought stage (stage four) is intended to cut water use by 50 percent.
On April 22, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) entered stage one drought under its drought mitigation plan, imposing new restrictions on irrigation and rate multipliers for high water use. The district’s drought plan calls for Conservation Service SNOwpack TELemetry Network (SNOTEL) site reaches zero between April 17 and May 1. SWE fell to zero on April 22, triggering stage one drought, according to PAWSD District Engineer Justin Ramsey. During drought stage one, irrigation is permitted only between 6 p.m. and 9 a.m., and residential customers who use more than 5,000 gallons of water a month will have a 1.25 times rate multiplier applied to their water bills. According to the PAWSD website, the imposition of this multiplier will begin to impact customer bills received in May, although the irrigation restrictions will start immediately. The plan notes that gardens may be hand watered using a hose or drip irrigation.
Drip irrigation graphic via Sonoma County Nurseries Resource
Aerial image of entrenched meanders of the San Juan River within Goosenecks State Park. Located in San Juan County, southeastern Utah (U.S.). Credits Constructed from county topographic map DRG mosaic for San Juan County from USDA/NRCS – National Cartography & Geospatial Center using Global Mapper 12.0 and Adobe Illustrator. Latitude 33° 31′ 49.52″ N., Longitude 111° 37′ 48.02″ W. USDA/FSA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
From email from Reclamation :
April 14, 2026
Reminder Navajo Reservoir Spring Operations MTG Tuesday April 21st from 1-3pm. The meeting will be entirely virtual; members of this list should have received a Teams invite. If you did not and would like to attend email cfelletter@usbr.gov for a meeting invite.
Reclamation conducts Public Operations Meetings three times per year to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies along with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir.
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney and Randi Pierce). Here’s an excerpt:
April 8, 2026
On Tuesday, April 7, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) announced that the district is implementing voluntary drought restrictions, with the agency anticipating increased drought restrictions within the next two weeks. According to a statement from the district, “The Voluntary water reduction stage is intended to give the community advanced notice of developing drought conditions and to begin encouraging water conservation and voluntary water use reduction. The Voluntary stage does not trigger the drought surcharge or tier rate multipliers.” The statement explains the trigger points for the voluntary stage are:
A curtailment order on Four Mile Creek prior to May 1.
A maximum snow water equivalency (SWE) less than 75 percent of median.
Reservoir levels with the addition of diversion flow less than 90 percent.
The statement notes, “With a maximum Snow Water Equivalency (SWE) of less than 75% of Median as of April 6, 2026, the District is implementing Voluntary Drought Restrictions as of April 7, 2026. PAWSD will implement the next level of mandatory drought restriction stages as dry conditions continue, and these do trigger drought surcharges and/or tier rate multipliers.”
An email to The SUN from District Engineer Justin Ramsey also notes the move is due to the National Integrated Drought Information Center upgrading the drought state in Archuleta County from severe to extreme…
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, April 8, the San Juan River in downtown Pagosa Springs had a flow rate of 451 cubic feet per second (cfs). Based on 90 years of water records, the record high flow for that date was recorded in 1960 at 1,380 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1964 at 65 cfs. The median flow for that date is 351 cfs and the mean flow is 418 cfs. The Piedra River near Arboles was flowing at a rate of 365 cfs, as of 2 p.m Wednesday, April 8, according to the USGS. Based on 63 years of water records, the median flow for April 8 is 567 cfs and the mean flow is 690 cfs. The record high flow for April 8 was recorded in 1985 at 2,370 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1977 at 100 cfs.
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney). Here’s an excerpt:
March 26, 2026
It was warmer last week in Pagosa Country than any other time on record, as the area saw five consecutive days of record high temperatures set from March 18-22. According to forecasts posted by Shawn Prochazka with Pagosa Weather, a new record high for the month of March was set on Wednesday, March 18, at 74 degrees and again on Thursday, March 19, at 76 degrees. The previous record high for the month of March was set in 1907 and 1940 at 73 degrees. Record highs for the month continued on Friday, March 20, with temperatures reaching 79 degrees. The previous record for that date was 68 degrees, set in 1997. Prochazka also notes that record high temperatures were set on Saturday, March 21, at 77 degrees, and on Sunday, March 22, at 74 degrees…
Snowpack
According to data from the Natural Resource Conservation Services (NRCS), as of 11 a.m. on Wednesday, March 25, Wolf Creek Pass at 10,930 feet had a snow water equivalent of 12 inches, compared to that date’s median of 27.3 inches. That amount is 44 percent of that date’s median snow water equivalent. The San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins as a whole are listed at 21 percent of its 30-year median snowpack. The Wolf Creek summit had the second highest current snow water equivalent in the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins, and the Upper Rio Grande basin, behind the Black Mesa site with 12.2 inches of snow water equivalent as of press time Wednesday…
Colorado Drought Monitor map March 24, 2026.
Drought
According to the most recent map released by the U.S. Drought Monitor on Thursday, March 19, 100 percent of Archuleta County remains in moderate drought stage, with 22.04 percent of the county being in a severe drought stage. Areas that are in a severe drought stage lie along the eastern border of the county with Conejos County. Meanwhile, 12.88 percent of the state is in an extreme drought stage, and less than 1 percent of the state is in an exceptional drought stage. That includes portions of Pitkin, Eagle, Summit, Lake and Park counties…
River flows
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as of 11 a.m. on Wednesday, March 25, the San Juan River in downtown Pagosa Springs had a flow rate of 595 cubic feet per second (cfs). The record high flow for that date was recorded in 2004 at 860 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1964 at 42 cfs. The median flow for that date is 165 cfs, and the mean flow is 239 cfs. The Piedra River near Arboles was flowing at a rate of 434 cfs as of 11 a.m Wednesday, March 24, according to the USGS. The median flow for that date is 339 cfs, and the mean flow is 457 cfs. The record high flow for that date was recorded in 1993 at 1,400 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1964 at 45 cfs.
The San Juan River near Navajo Dam, New Mexico, Aug. 23, 2015. Photo credit: Phil Slattery Wikimedia Commons
From email from Reclamation:
March 20, 2026
Reclamation conducts Public Operations Meetings three times per year to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies along with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. The next meeting will be held virtually on April 21st
It was early June, and we sat out in the shade in our backyard in Silverton, Colorado, wearing short-sleeves and shorts and drinking cold beverages under a cloudless blue sky. That, in itself, made the day memorable. Blizzards are as likely on Memorial Day as barbecues in this mountain town, elevation 9,318 feet, and sweater-free days usually don’t come along until July.
The winter of 2001-2002 had been unusually mild and a warm April and May had melted what little snow had fallen; the Animas River’s spring runoff had peaked at historically low levels a couple weeks earlier. I, for one, wasn’t too worried. By then it was understood that the climate was warming, and that it could wreak havoc on the planet, but the idea of rising sea levels and devastating heat waves felt pretty abstract in the Colorado high country. Besides, as an amateur historian, I had read accounts of similarly dry and warm winters from the San Juan Mountains’ past: In 1879, the snow was all melted from the highest peaks by May (giving way to the Lime Creek Burn that summer); sleighing was impossible” on Silverton’s streets during the 1890-91 winter; and the newspaper ran a photo of a water wagon suppressing dust on Greene Street on New Year’s Day, 1918, during “one of the most delightful winters ever experienced.”
Vallecito Reservoir during Missionary Ridge Fire via George Weber Environmental.
This, it seemed, was just another one of those occasional weird years, so we figured we might as well enjoy it. Then someone noticed what looked like puffy cumulonimbus cloud rising up in the gap formed by the Animas River gorge. It wasn’t a cloud at all, but a billowing tower of smoke from the Missionary Ridge Fire, ignited that afternoon on a slope about 35 miles south of where we sat. Over the coming weeks, the blaze would eat through 73,000 acres of parched scrub oak and aspen and conifer forest, along with 83 structures. It eclipsed the 26,000-acre Lime Creek Burn as the state’s largest wildfire on record, but lost the title to the Hayman Fire (138,114 acres) that was burning at the same time across the state.
Aerial view from the south of Hayman Fire June 30, 2002. Road traversing from left to right is U.S. Highway 24. Town of Manitou Springs is in lower part of photo, Colorado Springs to the right. Garden of the Gods park defined by three upright orange rock formations in right center just below smoke line. Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.
And it was then that we realized this was no normal abnormality, and that 2002 would go down as the Water Year of our Discontent: dry, smoky, and catastrophic for irrigators and river rafters alike.
This year is shaping up to be even more dire. Indeed, with temperatures in Silverton climbing into the 60s this week, I’m sure a few people have shed some layers and soaked up the sun — in March. Now, however, we know that this is no anomaly, but part of a long-term trend toward aridification, most likely caused or at least exacerbated by climate change. Call it the “new normal” if you’d like, but just remember the words of Bruce Cockburn: “The trouble with normal is it always gets worse.”
I wanted to wait until April to give this assessment, on the off chance that the weather might shift radically in the last days of March in a way that might give us all some hope. While anything’s still possible, I’ve seen enough to bet that, unfortunately, we may already have seen peak snowpack in many places, making this the driest water year on record by far. And besides, I wanted to get the spring runoff “predict the peak” streamflow contest going before, well, the streamflows actually peaked.
A crappy snow year does not necessarily lead to a nasty fire season, since so many other factors come into play. The same can sort of be true about the peak of the spring runoff. That’s more about timing: A fast melt after a dry winter can result in a bigger, albeit short-lived, peak, than a slow melt of a relatively abundant snowpack. The river’s average flows across the entire water year are much more closely tied to snowpack, but those can also be affected by a big monsoon season.
Still, looking back at similar years in the past can help with predicting flows this year. I’m going to focus on the Animas River in Durango, because it’s my home river, it is unimpeded by dams or major upstream diversions, and it is a good proxy for a lot of other Southwestern rivers, since its headwaters are located in the same mountain range as those of the Rio Grande, the Gunnison, the Dolores, the San Miguel, the San Juan, and the Uncompahgre rivers. If the runoff is weak in the Animas, it is also likely to be weak in all of those other rivers.
The snowpack graph shows that the current heat wave has really taken a toll, and probably launched the spring runoff.
Here’s the temperature graph for the Animas watershed. You can see that it reached a record high for the date of 42.8° F. That doesn’t seem too warm until you consider that the median temperature for March 18 is about 25° F. Probably more significant than this one little blip is the fact that daily temperatures have far exceeded “normal” on dozens of days this winter. Also note the contrast with 2002 (the darker green line).
When you talk to Colorado climate folks and old-timers with good memories, you’ll often hear that the 1977 water year was even drier than 2002. Unfortunately, SNOTEL records typically go back only to the early 1980s, so it’s difficult to make a good apples-to-apples comparison. But by looking at the “natural flow” of the Colorado River, which is the calculated estimate of how much the river would carry without any human intervention, it appears that 1977 was, indeed, the driest winter across the Upper Colorado River Basin since at least 1900.
However, historic Animas River flow data suggest that 2002 was actually drier in southwestern Colorado.
Here’s the average annual daily flow for the Animas. Note that there are several years missing between 1898 and 1911; apparently the USGS did not record flows during those years.
Average stream flows on the Animas River have trended downward over the last century and some, but the river has struggled through extreme dry years in the past. Source: USGS.
Because that graph isn’t so easy to read, here’s a table showing the eleven lowest average daily flow water years. Note that in 1927 they only had 92 records, potentially skewing the results. The 2002 and 2018 water years were lower than in 1977. If snowpack levels correlate with annual average flows, then we could expect this year’s to be around 200 cfs, which is pretty damned dismal.
When I took a look at the peak streamflows for the Animas, I was a bit taken aback to see that in 2002 it topped out above 1,000 cfs, which is more than I would have expected.
Then I saw the date: It peaked in September, after the monsoon arrived, not in the spring. The 2002 spring runoff actually topped out on May 21 at 880 cfs, which was far lower than the 1977 spring peak.
Based on all of that, my Animas River peak streamflow prediction is a bit wacky, but I’m standing by it: It will top out at 700 cfs on April 15.
The rest of the Land Desk community will have a chance to predict the peak starting next week, when I’ll announce the terms, the river gauges in the contest, and the prizes for the winner(s). Most likely it will only be open to paid subscribers, so the time to upgrade is now!
We might as well get even more depressed. Here’s the snowpack graph for the Upper Colorado River Basin, showing 2026, 2002, and 2018 — i.e. the dismal years. Note that the spring melt has begun in earnest. If it continues at this rate, runoff will be over by early May.
And here’s the natural flow graph for Lees Ferry on the Colorado River. Natural flow is the calculation of how much water would be in the river at that point if there were no human diversions or consumptive use upstream. If you compare this to the historic streamflows on the Animas River, you’ll notice that there is a correlation, but it’s not direct. For example, 1977 was the driest year on record for the Colorado River as a whole, with a total volume of just 5.4 million acre-feet, which is about half what the Lower Basin alone was using throughout the 1990s.
The ten lowest years on record are:
1977: 5.4 MAF
2002: 5.9 MAF
1934: 6.6 MAF
2021: 7.2 MAF
1954: 8.3 MAF
2012: 8.4 MAF
2018: 8.5 MAF
2025: 8.5 MAF (provisional)
1981: 8.6 MAF
1931: 8.9 MAF
It looks like we could be in that 5.4 MAF territory once again. That wasn’t a huge deal in 1977, since it was an anomaly. It is a big deal now.
And just so you know, it’s not just the Colorado River watershed that’s in trouble. Even California, which got pummeled by atmospheric rivers, is losing its snow rapidly.
📖 Reading (and watching) Room 🧐
The Upper Basin and Lower Basin may not have come up with a deal yet on how to save the Colorado River’s massive plumbing system, but they are looking for solutions. One of them is creating an Upper Basin conservation pool. Like a lot of issues related to the rivers, it’s a slightly complicated one. But Heather Sackett of Aspen Journalism gives a really great rundown. She’s always a must-read for those looking to understand what’s going on with the Colorado.
🗺️ Messing with Maps 🧭
The current heat wave is breaking records across the West. Here’s a little sampling:
If you want a quick and comprehensive look where those records were broken during the last day, week, or month, check out coolwx.com/record. In the side panel you can click on the United States and the time period you wish to see and it will show an animation of all of the records. It looks kind of like this:
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney and Randi Pierce). Here’s an excerpt:
March 19, 2026
Shawn Prochazka is also predicting more record high temperatures to have been set Wednes- day, March 18 (the high temperature reached was not available by press time that day); today, Thursday, March 19; and tomorrow, Friday, March 20. Prochazka predicted temperatures being 25 degrees above normal. Prochazka also notes that the record high for the month of March is 73 degrees, which was set March 19, 1907, and March 23 and 25, 1940. Warm and dry weather is expected to stick around throughout the weekend and into next week, with Prochazka indicating the next chance for precipitation possibly starting around March 25…Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing throughout the weekend in Pagosa Springs as a high of 82 degrees is forecast for Friday, March 20, with a low of 37 degrees and clear skies in the evening…
The drought conditions in the area have also worsened, with the U.S. Drought Monitor showing that 100 percent of Archuleta County was in moderate drought as of March 10, up from 47.89 percent of the county being in moderate drought and 100 percent of the county being abnormally dry the previous week…Snowpack also continues to fall below median levels in the region and across the state. As of Wednesday, the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins sat at 45 percent of the March 18 median. The Wolf Creek summit SNOTEL site, which sits at an elevation of 10,930 feet, was at 56 percent of the day’s median, while the Upper San Juan site, which sits at 10,140 feet, was at 49 percent of the day’s median.
On Tuesday, due to the recordbreaking warm temperatures and low snowpack across Colorado, Governor Jared Polis activated the state’s Drought Task Force and Phase 2 of Colorado’s Drought Response Plan. Acting on recommendations from the state’s Water Conditions Monitoring Committee and partner agencies, the task force will help the state bet- ter understand and elevate the local, regional and sector-specific impacts of worsening drought conditions, a press release from the state explains.
“Colorado is experiencing thewarmest year so far in our 131-year record, and one of the driest,” Polis said. “Activating the Drought Task Force will help ensure we are protecting one of our most precious resources by closely tracking impacts, supporting communities and coordinating better as we prepare for the year ahead.”
The Drought Task Force, last activated in 2020, brings together senior leadership from key state agencies, including the Colorado Department of Natural Resources, Colorado Department of Agriculture, Department of Local Affairs, and the Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, according to the press release. It further explains that the group assesses drought conditions statewide, elevates local impacts to state leadership, and can convene regional or sector-specific workgroups to gather information and share resources…
As of noon on Wednesday, March 18, the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs was running at a flow of 286 cubic feet per second (cfs), above the median flow for March 18 The median flow for March 18 sits at 121.5 cfs, with a historical low for the date being 39 cfs and the historical high being 1,040 cfs.
Lake Powell, on the Colorado River, is seen from the air in 2019. The Upper Basin states are planning how to potentially fill a dedicated pool in the nation’s second largest reservoir. CREDIT: ECOFLIGHT
With a Lake Powell conservation pool nearly guaranteed for the future of Colorado River management, the four Upper Basin states are exploring and refining the ways they could fill it.
Conservation by those states (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) could be one of the keys to reaching a deal among the seven states that share the Colorado River and an important part of the framework for managing the drought-stricken river after this year. The water saved by the Upper Basin states could be stored in Lake Powell as a means of maintaining higher water levels and as an insurance policy against drastic cuts.
This type of pool isn’t yet being used in Lake Powell; it would have to be established by an agreement among the seven states. An agreement in the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan allowed for a 500,000 acre-foot Upper Basin storage pool in Lake Powell, but so far, the states have not utilized this and the agreement expires this year.
The Upper Basin and Lower Basin (California, Arizona and Nevada) have been at an impasse for more than two years about how the nation’s two largest reservoirs — Lake Powell and Lake Mead — will be managed and shortages shared in the future. The situation has never been more dire: The current guidelines for river management expire at the end of the year, while record-low snowpack is expected to push reservoir levels below critical thresholds. The seven states have blown past two deadlines to come up with a plan, and the federal government is gearing up for emergency actions to manage reservoirs.
The crux of the disagreement between the two basins has been over who should take shortages in drought years. The Lower Basin has committed to 1.5 million acre-feet of reductions annually and wants cuts beyond that to be shared by the Upper Basin. The Upper Basin says its water users already take cuts in some years because streams run dry by midsummer and any contributions they make must be voluntary.
TThe main boat ramp at Wahweap Marina was unusable due to low water levels in Lake Powell in December 2021. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is projecting that the reservoir will fall below critical thresholds later this year. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Contribution not conservation
Some Upper Basin officials have made a slight shift in the way they now talk about a pool in Lake Powell. No longer referred to as a conservation pool, it is called a “contribution” pool, reflecting the different methods — not only conservation of agricultural water — of contributing water to a Lake Powell pool.
Traditionally, the Colorado River basin states have turned to programs that pay irrigators to voluntarily leave fields dry for a season or two as the primary way to cut water use. With agriculture representing the majority of water use in the Upper Basin, it’s often the low-hanging fruit when it comes to water savings.
But at least two Upper Basin states are turning to other methods to contribute water to a Lake Powell pool.
For example, New Mexico can contribute water from Navajo Reservoir that it leases from a tribe. In Colorado, the method is less straightforward, but officials say the state is prioritizing and expanding existing programs and projects that save water.
“When you talk about things like turf removal, water-loss prevention, watershed restoration, forest-health efforts that are happening on the ground, those are benefits not only to Colorado but to the entire system,” said Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s lead negotiator in talks among the seven states that share the Colorado River. “So we’re trying to figure out: How do we acknowledge all of that work?”
Raymond Langstaff, a rancher and president of the Bookcliff Conservation District, irrigates a parcel north of Rifle. The state of Colorado explored the feasibility of a demand management program that would pay irrigators to cut back, but did not implement one. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Utah touts pragmatic approach
Over its run in 2023 and 2024, the federally funded System Conservation Pilot Programdoled out $45 million to Upper Basin irrigators to cut their use by about 100,000 acre-feet. Utah water users received about $15 million of that in exchange for temporarily forgoing about 37,000 acre-feet of Colorado River water. The state put lessons learned with SCPP to use and is now in the second year of its own demand management pilot program, funded by $5 million from the state legislature and run by the Colorado River Authority of Utah.
The pilot program lets water users temporarily participate in a conservation program, and pays them $390 an acre-foot of water to do it. In 2025, Utah sent about 8,000 acre-feet downstream to Lake Powell under this pilot program, according to Marc Stilson, deputy director and principal engineer of the authority. There are a couple industrial water users and one municipal water user among the participants, but the majority are agricultural, he said.
“The pilot program is trying to iron out all these issues so that if we end up with some type of post-2026 commitment to do these types of voluntary conservation programs, we’re ready to do it,” Stilson said. “There is a very pragmatic approach in Utah looking at the big picture, and I think generally there is a sense that we have to adapt to changing conditions.”
Whether the program will continue after this year is unclear and could depend on whether the states reach a deal.
“We were anticipating that we’d have an agreement and that these types of programs would be part of that agreement,” Stilson said. “I think we just have to take a wait-and-see approach.”
Wyoming is also looking to traditional programs: State lawmakers are establishing a voluntary water conservation program. Wyoming state engineer and lead negotiator Brandon Gebhart did not respond to phone calls, emails or a list of questions from Aspen Journalism.
Boater on the San Juan River in May 2023. New Mexico officials say they can contribute water to a pool in Lake Powell through releasing water they lease in Navajo Reservoir. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
New Mexico seeks ‘more diverse’ ways to contribute water
The state of New Mexico plans to contribute to a Powell pool mostly through 20,000 acre-feet of Navajo Reservoir water, which it leases from the Jicarilla Apache Nation and can be released down the San Juan River. Along the way to Lake Powell, it boosts flows for endangered fish. Officials say because they can control when they release the water, it can be tracked with certainty to the reservoir.
“We all need to focus on more diverse ways of contributions, not just the classic conserved consumptive use,” said Ali Effati, Colorado River basin bureau chief for the New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission.
Water managers say that automatically turning to agricultural water isn’t always reliable because as climate change continues to rob rivers of flows, even if senior water users want to participate in these types of conservation programs, they may not have any water to spare in dry years.
“That doesn’t mean that we have shied away from those sorts of activities, but to the extent that we can do our part without having to ask our agricultural community to cut water where they already take significant cuts almost annually, that’s just a preferable perspective,” said Estevan Lopez, lead negotiator for New Mexico.
Lopez said the likelihood of seeing a future Upper Basin contribution pool in Lake Powell is nearly 100% and that New Mexico will be ready, willing and able to contribute its share of water when the time comes.
“We have our percentage easily covered, plus a significant amount more,” he said.“We have our percentage easily covered, plus a significant amount more,” he said.
TThese hay bales stand ready to be collected on a ranch outside of Carbondale in July 2024. Upper Basin states have traditionally looked to agricultural to conserve water, but some are now turning to other ways to contribute water. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Colorado points to programs already in place
Colorado water users participated in both years of SCPP, but the state has been reluctant to take the leap into setting up its own program, despite being an early leader of the conservation conversation among the Upper Basin states.
In 2019, Colorado convened nine workgroups to explore the feasibility of a demand management program. The process included Colorado River water users from across the state and in multiple water-use sectors, who looked at how to set up a temporary, voluntary, compensated state program. But in 2022, the state water board shelved the studies without implementing a program, in favor of focusing on drought-resiliency initiatives.
Mitchell said the demand management feasibility investigation was an incredibly valuable exercise, but that there are still a number of open questions. Inaction on a demand management program doesn’t mean inaction on conservation overall, she said.
“The CWCB board voted to pause that investigation until there was clarity about whether any such program would be achievable, worthwhile and advisable and until there’s evidence that a demand management-esque program would benefit Colorado,” Mitchell said.
In 2023, Colorado lawmakers created a task force to again examine how the state could implement demand reduction and conservation programs. Water managers punted the issue again, failing to make recommendations to lawmakers on this topic, with some members saying conservation programs were “premature.”
The state still does not seem to have the policies in place to implement a large-scale, traditional conservation program in the near future. Mitchell said Colorado’s plan to contribute water to a Lake Powell pool is through the programs and projects already in place, many of which are funded through the state’s Water Plan grants.
At its March meeting, the CWCB approved more than $13 million for 38 projects across the state, according to a press release. They include things like urban turf replacement, creek and wetland restoration, outdoor water budgeting and wildfire ready action plans.
“Our strategy is to continue on with the programs that are already in existence, continue to fund conservation efforts that benefit all Coloradans as well as the entire system, continue to live within the means of the river and adapt our uses to align with available supply,” Mitchell said. “Because of all those programs already set up, we believe we have the majority of the structure in place.”
But Mitchell would not put a number on the amount of water that Colorado could contribute.
“We want to be a part of the solution when and how we are able to, but no, I’m not going to say we can do 100,000 acre-feet in a year like this,” she said.
Colorado River watchers may soon get some clarity around exactly how — and how much — Upper Basin states plan to contribute to a Lake Powell pool. On March 24, the Upper Colorado River Commission plans to consider projects to include in a “provisional accounting” memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, according to UCRC Director Chuck Cullom.
Some Upper Basin projects that are not traditional agricultural conservation programs may be counted under the MOU, allowing the states to “get credit” for the water they save through unconventional means. Cullom said the UCRC and Bureau of Reclamation will also soon have an accounting report of water-saving activities undertaken in 2025.
Mitchell said Colorado is still committed to a seven-state consensus agreement and wants to avoid litigation. But acknowledgement of what the Upper Basin is already doing to cut back on water use will be important.
“The MOU is one component where we would like to see some sort of real acknowledgement of what is occurring in terms of the way that we live within the means of the river and what our strict administration is doing,” Mitchell said. “As long as we are not acknowledged in what’s happening on the ground, I think we’re going to have struggles.”
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
Due to the increasing severity of the ongoing drought, and in an effort to conserve as much water as possible, the Bureau of Reclamation will decrease the release from Navajo Dam to 250 cubic feet per second (cfs) on Monday, March 16, at 8:00 AM.
West Drought Monitor map March 10, 2026.
This change provides an opportunity to conserve approximately 1,500 acre-feet of stored water during the remainder of March while downstream targets are being met by side inflows.
Releases from Navajo Dam are made for the authorized purposes of the Navajo Unit and to support base flows through the endangered fish critical habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to Lake Powell). The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout the critical habitat reach from Farmington to Lake Powell.
This scheduled release change is subject to adjustment based on river flows and weather conditions.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
On March 3, 2026, the Pagosa Springs Town Council, which also sits as the board of the Pagosa Springs Sanitation General Improvement District (PSSGID), gave town staff direction to continue in its current relationship with Roaring Fork Engineering, while also engaging in a new separate contract to design and build a new wastewater treatment facility plant downtown. The council also gave town staff direction to explore the possibility of declaring its sewer system “a state of emergency.”
[…]
Roaring Fork has identified four major project goals for the downtown treatment facility:
Design a wastewater treatment facility which can serve the entire town population, including the ability for future expansion for either acceptance of a larger service area or PAWSD sewage.
The wastewater treatment facility should be a community-centric facility, which includes the ability for students and community members, to interact with the site safely and learn more about wastewater treatment and operations.
The building should be LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) certified, integrate into the natural landscape (green roof ), include renewable energy when possible and be designed by a local architect who understands the community’s infrastructure.
The treatment processes should be progressive, forward-thinking and regulatory resilient, energy-efficient, and long-term sustainable for a small community to operate. This shall include the ability to treat wastewater to nonpotable reuse standards for localized irrigation on properties nearby.
The Bureau of Reclamation’s latest forecast for the Colorado River predicts Lake Powell will “most probably” drop below the critical minimum power pool level before the end of this year, jeopardizing Glen Canyon Dam’s structural integrity. In the worst-case scenario, it would do so before summer’s end. This could force the feds to operate the dam as a “run-of-the-river” operation to preserve the dam’s infrastructure and hydropower output, which would significantly diminish downstream flows and threaten Lower Basin water supplies.
Lake Powell could receive only half the normal amount of water from upstream rivers and streams this year, according to a recent federal study.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation releases a monthly study that forecasts good, bad and most likely storage conditions for the Colorado River Basin’s key reservoirs over the next two years. The February forecast expects about 52%, or about 5 million acre-feet, of the normal amount of water to flow into Lake Powell by September. The more grim outlook says Powell’s inflows could be 3.52 million acre-feet or 37% of the average from 1991 to 2020.
It’s enough to spike concerns about hydropower generation at Glen Canyon Dam — which controls releases from Powell — prompt discussions about emergency releases from upstream reservoirs and trigger federal actions to slow the pace of water out of the reservoir.
“I think they’re going to be nervous about operating the turbines,” said Eric Kuhn, former general manager for the Colorado River Water Conservation District.
In January, about 79% of the 30-year average flowed into Lake Powell — which is on the Utah-Arizona border — from upstream areas of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, according to the federal February 24-month study, released Friday.
The February projections also showed even less water flowing into Lake Powell, a decline of about 1.5 million acre-feet since January.
The Colorado River Basin, which provides water to 40 million people, has been plagued by a 25-year drought that drained its main reservoirs — the largest in the nation — to historic lows amid unyielding human demands.
And that stress is going to continue. The most probable forecast shows nothing but below-average flows in February — 71% of the 30-year average — and for April through July, when flows are likely to be 38% of the norm.
Feds take action to boost Powell
Upstream states like Colorado do not get a drop of water from Lake Powell, Kuhn said. Coloradans rely mostly on local reservoirs to help pace the spring runoff and support year-round water use.
But the reservoir’s status can impact whether upstream reservoirs, like Flaming Gorge in Wyoming and Blue Mesa in Colorado, will have to make emergency releases to elevate water levels in Lake Powell.
In response to the dry and warm winter, the federal government is trying to keep the water in the reservoir above certain critical water levels, according to the study.
At 3,490 feet in elevation, Glen Canyon Dam can no longer send Powell’s water through its penstocks and turbines to generate hydroelectric power — that would remove a cheap, renewable and reliable power source for communities across the West.
Lake Powell is projected to drop below the critical elevation by December, or as soon as August in one scenario, according to the 24-month study.
Federal officials are likely to call for emergency water releases from upstream reservoirs to keep Powell’s water level from falling to that point. They’re working to maintain a cushion by keeping Powell’s water level above 3,525 feet, or at the very least 3,500 feet in elevation, according to the study.
Lake Powell’s elevation was just over 3,532 feet as of Monday, but it’s expected to drop to 3,497 feet by Sept. 30 under the most likely forecast. (The minimum forecast puts it closer to 3,469 feet.)
Putting himself in the Bureau of Reclamation’s shoes, Kuhn would be looking upstream to fill that gap.
“Where do they plan for it?” he said. “I would be looking to get a lot of water if I’m going to keep Lake Powell above 3,500. … 3,525 may not be possible. There just may not be enough water in the system.”
Facing new lows
That is partly because the Bureau of Reclamation is required by a 2007 agreement, which expires this fall, to release certain amounts of water each year based on reservoir elevations. Replacing these rules is the focus of ongoing high-stakes — and deadlocked — negotiations among states.
Powell’s releases are expected to be 7.48 million acre-feet between Oct. 1, 2025, and Sept. 30, according to the February 24-month study.
To try to keep reservoir levels up, the Bureau of Reclamation has adjusted its normal releases since December to keep about 600,000 acre-feet of water in the reservoir. That water will eventually be released downstream as required by the 2007 rules.
Federal officials could also release less than 7.48 million acre-feet this year to keep more water in Lake Powell, according to the study. A 2024 short-term agreement allows the officials to release as little as 6 million acre-feet of water this year to avoid Lake Powell falling below 3,500 feet.
Lake Powell’s lowest release was about 2.43 million acre-feet in 1964, when the reservoir was first being filled. Since 2000, when the basin dipped into the ongoing 25-year drought, Powell’s average annual release has been 8.69 million acre-feet, according to The Sun’s analysis of water release data.
“I don’t think they’re going to release 7.48 this year. I think they have to cut the flow down to 7 (million acre-feet) or even below,” Kuhn said.
The outflow at the bottom of Navajo Dam in New Mexico. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism
From email from Reclamation Western Colorado Area Office:
The Bureau of Reclamation has scheduled a decrease in the release from Navajo Dam from 350 cubic feet per second (cfs) to 300 cfs for Tuesday, February 10th, at 8:00 AM.
Releases are being made through the 4×4 gates while the powerplant is down for maintance.
Releases are made for the authorized purposes of the Navajo Unit, and to attempt to maintain a target base flow through the endangered fish critical habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to Lake Powell). The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout the critical habitat area from Farmington to Lake Powell.
This scheduled release change is subject to changes in river flows and weather conditions. If you have any questions, please reply to this message, call 970-385-6500, or visit Reclamation’s Navajo Dam website at https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
Vallecito Dam is due for some serious upkeep…But aging materials and erosion have caused significant damage to the dam’s emergency support structures, and a major repair project is coming down the pipeline sometime in the next several years.
“We’ve got this issue and we know it’s here. It hasn’t been clandestine; we’ve told people about it forever,” said Ken Beck, superintendent of the Pine River Irrigation District. “But it’s a nail-biter for a superintendent and dam tender.”
PRID operates, maintains and manages Vallecito Dam and Reservoir, which holds and delivers supplemental irrigation water to 65,000 acres of land downstream – the lifeblood for ranchers and farmers who hold water rights with the district…The repair project – about which little has been decided beyond the fact that it must happen – will be a massive undertaking. Beck estimated it could take roughly two to four years to complete once ground is broken, likely changing some of the regular operations of the reservoir. There is the potential that irrigators, ranchers and farmers who rely on consistent water deliveries would feel some impact – but Beck said how much and if at all is dependent on a variety of factors, like the weather and the time of year when the construction is done…The project is also important from the standpoint of the Southern Ute Indian Tribe, which is entitled to one-sixth of the reservoir’s total storage capacity. That water is used primarily for tribal agriculture and water management…
The primary issue is the dam’s upper spillway, a critical safety structure designed to release water during extreme runoff or flood events. Vallecito’s upper spillway includes three radial gates and a concrete chute that carries water to be released downstream safely without damaging the dam itself. Any damage to that infrastructure is a critical issue, and can compromise the dam’s ability to manage high water and protect downstream communities…In 2017, PRID conducted a dye test to assess the spillway’s integrity, Beck said. Dye placed upstream later appeared in areas downstream where it should not have surfaced if the structure were intact, confirming that water was migrating beneath the concrete spillway.
That process – known as “piping” – can carry sediment out from under the structure and weaken its foundation. After the dye test, the Bureau of Reclamation launched a series of investigations that revealed large underground voids – some as large as 4 by 10 feet – beneath portions of the spillway. Beck said it was determined the upper spillway is unsafe to use except in dire emergencies, because uncontrolled flows could accelerate erosion and threaten the dam’s integrity.
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney and Randi Pierce). Here’s an excerpt:
January 7, 2026
Snowpack and stream flow
According to data from the Natural Resource Conservation Services (NRCS), as of 1 p.m. on Wednesday, Jan. 7, the Wolf Creek Pass site at 10,930 feet had a snow water equivalent of 7.6 inches, compared to that date’s median of 15.5 inches. This is up from the Dec. 31, 2025, report of 7 inches. The current amount is 49 percent of that date’s median snow water equivalent…The San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins were measured to be at 49 percent of its 30-year median snowpack as of December 31, 2025, and at 56 percent on January 7, 2026…
In Pagosa Springs, U.S. Geological Survey for the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs has showed record flows multiple times since the start of the year. For example, at 9 a.m. on Jan. 2, the river was running at 128 cubic feet per second (cfs), which compares to a median of 53 cfs and a previous high of 118 in 1986. At 11 a.m. on Jan. 5, the river was running at 119 cfs, which compares to a median for that date of 54.5 cfs and a previous max value of 116 in 1987. By 11 a.m. on Wednesday, Jan. 7, the river was flowing at 111 cfs. The Jan. 7 median is 55, and the record high is 116 cfs, which was recorded in 1987. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor’s most recent map released on Dec. 31, 2025, 100 percent of Archuleta County is in an “abnormally dry” drought stage.
Total precipitation (inches) from 9-15 October 2025 with gridded data from the PRISM Climate Group and observations from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network.
On January 6, 2026 Town of Pagosa Springs staff informed the Pagosa Springs Town Council about the town’s ongoing flood recovery funding efforts in the wake of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA’s) denial of the town’s request for $5.7 million to aid cleanup efforts. Development Director James Dickhoff and Projects Manager Kyle Rickert were both on hand to walk the council through various other funding opportunities, with Dickhoff stating, “We are not counting on FEMA money to come through to us” after the denial on Dec. 21, 2025. Dickhoff stated that staff just wanted to inform the council “on where we are at” regarding the town’s relief funding efforts from the October 2025 flooding…
The total project cost of river cleanup and restoration following the October flood event is estimated to be just shy of $6 million, stated Town Manager David Harris in correspondence. Rickert explained that, with the FEMA funding off the table, the town is pursuing several state grants, and possibly a state loan, as well as two other federal funding programs. Dickhoff added that if the town wanted to pursue “the loan opportunity through the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB),” the council would need to put it before the voters in an upcoming spring election to be legally eligible to take out the loan…
Rickert explained that the federal Emergency Watershed Protection had awarded the town about $3.3 million and the Colorado Office of Emergency Management awarded $463,504 in funds. These funds will go toward embankment stabilizations near the Pagosa Springs History Museum and near 6th Street, pedestrian bridge abutment stabilization at Centennial Park, restoring the River Center ponds, as well as Apache Street bridge repairs and log jam removals, all coming with a total project price tag of $4,178,038, the slideshow states…
He added, “The river is an important part of our tourism portfolio and we need to get it cleaned up” and make it safe for those recreating in the river before summer hits. Rickert then informed the council about a Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) Fishing is Fun grant that the town has requested in the amount of $328,603. This grant would go toward dredging the River Center ponds, a headgate replacement at Pond #1 (the east pond), ditch restoration, debris and sediment removal upstream of town limits to the future 1st Street pedestrian bridge, as well as rebuilding rock structures in the same area. Rickert noted that the town was also awarded $15,000 from History Colorado Emergency Grant for its ongoing efforts to stabilize the river bank near the museum…One or possibly two water gauge stations would give the town an estimated two hours of warning time as water levels rise during another flood event, providing historic data as part of the U.S. Geological Survey monitoring system, she noted. This grant application would be due by Jan. 31, so she asked the council to pass a resolution supporting the CWCB river gauge grant, which the council passed unanimously.
The San Juan River has peaked above 8,000 cfs twice in the last several days, reaching the highest levels seen since the 1927 flood. Source: USGS.
All it takes is a quick step outside to confirm that, so far, winter in La Plata County – and across much of Southwest Colorado – is unseasonably warm. Durango set record-breaking highs on Dec. 24 and Dec. 25, when the temperature climbed to 60 degrees, 5 degrees warmer than previous records for those dates, according to in-town data from the National Weather Service. The warm temperatures have been accompanied by a drier-than-normal December and scarce early season snowfall. While it has impacted and raised concerns across sectors like cattle ranchers, water management and tourism – sectors largely dependent on winter weather – no one is throwing out hope for a good winter. [ed. emphasis mine]
Local businesses have been impacted by the weather differently – good or bad, dependent on the seasonal recreation it sells. Scant snowfall is bad news for powder hounds, and bad business for ski shops that depend on winter recreation business…And while ski-related businesses wait for snow, Durango’s fishing industry has seen increased activity, as warmer temperatures keep rivers accessible later into the season…If warm, dry conditions persist long-term, Glenn said, the outlook could shift. Low river levels and heightened wildfire risk would pose serious challenges for the fishing industry in future seasons…
For the region’s ranching community, winter precipitation is closely tied to long-term water security. Low snowpack can mean less water available once irrigation ditches reopen in the spring. Although the warm weather has limited snowfall so far, heavy rains in the fall helped replenish local reservoirs, providing some reassurance heading into summer, said Wayne Jefferies, president of the Archuleta Cattlemen’s Society…Lemon and Vallecito reservoirs are now nearly three-quarters full – a significant improvement from projections at the end of last summer…
Colorado Drought Monitor map December 30, 2025.
Still, Jefferies said a lack of snowfall remains concerning. If dry conditions persist into early 2026, reservoir levels alone may not be enough to offset reduced snowmelt. Ranchers – who often joke that they are “grass farmers” – rely heavily on snowmelt to recharge underground moisture that supports healthy forage growth. Beneath the surface, soil and gravel layers act like a sponge, [Wayne] Jefferies said. Snowmelt is needed to saturate that sponge before irrigation water and rain can effectively reach grasses. Without sufficient snow and spring runoff, those underground layers remain dry, he said. When irrigation begins, much of the water is absorbed below ground, leaving less available for grasses to grow. The result can be weaker forage, reduced grazing capacity and added strain on ranching operations. Jefferies added this isn’t new. Southwest Colorado has experienced persistent drought conditions for much of the past two decades, punctuated by only brief periods of relief…
Water managers, meanwhile, are entering winter in a stronger position than usual thanks to the fall floods. The October flooding caused reservoirs to rise rapidly. Vallecito Reservoir, which stores water for the Pine River Irrigation District, rose 25 feet in just a few days, said Ken Beck, PRID superintendent. The surplus of water reserves after a dry summer is a good buffer for next year, and has eased the stress of relying solely on winter precipitation, Beck said, although water supply is always subject to some degree of uncertainty.
Colorado River water could enable a pumped storage hydropower project intended to make the region’s electric grid more resilient.
KEY POINTS
One of the longest-duration pumped storage hydropower projects in the country is proposed for Navajo Nation land in the Four Corners region.
The project received a $7.1 million Department of Energy grant this year for feasibility studies.
Pumped storage hydropower is the largest form of energy storage in the U.S.
Standing in a breezy parking lot on Navajo land in the state’s far northwest corner, Tom Taylor looked toward the western horizon and then upwards at the furrowed mass of the Carrizo Mountains less than 10 miles away.
If all goes to plan, the infrastructure that could one day spill from the mountain’s flanks and through its core will become an essential piece of the region’s electric grid, able to store surplus electricity from renewable energy and other power sources for when it is needed later.
Fighting the wind that chilly November morning, Taylor used both hands to pin a detailed map against the hood of his Porsche Macan. A jumble of dashed lines and blue splotches representing proposed power lines, reservoirs, a water-supply pipeline, and access roads were printed atop the real-world geography on display in front of us.
“This will be a battery that lasts a long time,” Taylor said, holding tightly to the map.
JOAN CARSTENSEN
The project is the $5 billion Carrizo Four Corners Pumped Storage Hydro Center, which is designed to be one of the largest long-duration energy storage projects in the country. Pumped storage moves water between two reservoirs at different elevations. Water is pumped uphill when excess electricity is available and released to generate electricity when power demand warrants it.
Taylor, a former mayor of Farmington and a state House representative from 2000 to 2014, is employed by Kinetic Power, the three-person, Santa Fe-based outfit behind the Carrizo proposal. The company sees the project as a way to make the region’s electric grid more durable and cost-effective, not only by smoothing the intermittent nature of wind and solar but also as a bulwark against energy emergencies like the winter storm in 2021 that caused blackouts and 246 deaths in Texas. The twinned reservoirs, using water sourced from a Colorado River tributary nearby, would have the capacity to generate 1,500 megawatts over 70 hours – a form of battery that could provide the equivalent output of a large nuclear plant for nearly three days.
“We believe that the key is delivering economic value,” said Thomas Conroy, Kinetic Power’s co-founder, who has four decades of experience developing energy projects.
What seems straightforward when placing lines on a map is much less so in three dimensions. Carrizo Four Corners, which is still in the exploratory stage and is at least five years away from breaking ground, has nearly as many questions as answers at this point. What is the geology within the Carrizo Mountains? Will it support a 3,300-foot-deep shaft, a subterranean powerhouse, and dam abutments? How will drought affect the water supply? What cultural sites and wildlife might be at risk from construction? What are the power market dynamics?
Answering those questions is the goal of a $7.1 million, two-and-a-half-year Department of Energy grant that Kinetic and its six university and research partners secured in August. (The state of New Mexico and the research partners are also contributing $7.1 million.) On the political side, will future Navajo administrations feel as favorably toward Carrizo as current president Buu Nygren?
The technical questions are but one piece of an ambitious project that touches many of the most pressing questions about natural resources in the American West today: energy development, water use, and the relationship between federal law and tribal law.
Connecting Water and Energy
Though the details are still to be worked out, the project can be described in broad strokes.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which oversees federal hydropower licensing, granted Kinetic a preliminary permit in 2021. In February 2025 FERC extended the permit, which allows for site investigations but no construction work, for another four years.
The company envisions two “off-channel” reservoirs that would not dam a flowing river. The lower reservoir will be near Beclabito. The upper, in the high reaches of the Carrizo Mountains. Both are on Navajo land, but on different sides of the Arizona-New Mexico border.
The powerhouse that holds the electricity-generating turbines will be located underground, some 3,300 feet below the upper reservoir. Some of the longest pumped storage tunnels in the country will be required to connect the reservoirs and the powerhouse.
Despite the geotechnical challenges, Conroy is particularly enthused by the site, which he said is the most optimal in Arizona and New Mexico – and possibly the entire country – to locate a pumped storage hydropower project.
The site stands out for four reasons, he said. It is near existing transmission corridors and grid connections due to the region’s legacy of enormous coal-fired power plants. And it will have a comparatively low capital cost for the energy it will produce.
The other two reasons relate to water. Because of the extreme height differential between the upper and lower reservoirs – almost three Empire State Buildings – less water will be required to produce a unit of energy than for reservoirs with a gentler gradient. And because the upper reservoir site is a deep canyon, surface area and thus evaporation will be minimized.
“Water is just top of mind here in the Southwest,” Conroy said. “And our project is as water-efficient as can be made.”
Water to fill the reservoirs would be drawn from the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado, via pipeline. The water would come from the Navajo Nation’s San Juan rights, which have been quantified but are not fully used.
How much water? In its FERC permit application, Kinetic estimated that the initial fill, which will take one and a half to two years, would require 38,300 acre-feet. To cover subsequent evaporation losses, the reservoirs would need to be topped up with 2,635 acre-feet per year. Those numbers will be refined in the feasibility studies.
“It’s what, about 1,300 acres of corn?” Taylor said, doing a rough mental calculation of the equivalent water consumption for the annual evaporation loss. “I think this is more valuable than 1,300 acres of corn.”
Saving for Tomorrow
So far the project has threaded the federal government’s fraught energy politics. The Trump administration is hostile to wind and solar, which in their eyes reek of liberal values. Two water-based technologies – hydropower and geothermal – have escaped condemnation and are listed in the administration’s energy dominance documents. The DOE grant that Carrizo secured is a holdover from the Biden administration’s infrastructure bill, which provided up to $10 million for feasibility studies for pumped storage projects that would store renewable energy generated on tribal lands.
Storage is the holy grail of renewable energy. Human civilization has advanced, from the dawn of agriculture to the artificial intelligence revolution today, by being able to carry a surplus from one season and one year to the next. So it is with wind and solar. To maximize their utility and counteract their intermittent nature, engineers have been searching for cost-effective ways to store energy when the sun shines and when the wind blows for the days when neither of those things happen.
“If you want to improve the resiliency of the system, you either build more firm capacity instead of more renewable, or you build longer storage,” said Fengyu Wang, a New Mexico State University assistant professor who is the principal investigator for the DOE grant.
Storage has taken many forms. Some are fantastic mechanical configurations – lifting heavy objects and dropping them, or forcing air into caverns and releasing it. Thermal options use molten salt to trap the sun’s heat. The most familiar are batteries, which leverage chemical energy. But the most common, at least in the U.S., is pumped storage hydropower.
The 43 pumped storage facilities in the U.S. represent the bulk of the country’s utility-scale energy storage. They accounted for 88 percent of the total in 2024, according to Oak Ridge National Laboratory. That is changing quickly, however, as more battery storage comes online. The share for pumped storage was 96 percent in 2022.
Still, long-duration storage is where pumped storage shines. According to Oak Ridge, the median battery storage is two hours. For pumped storage, it is 12 hours. Longer duration provides more buffer, not only from day to day but also season to season.
In that regard, Carrizo would signify a huge leap. The only comparable pumped storage project under consideration in the U.S. is Cat Creek, in Idaho. Even though its duration is 121 hours, its generating capacity is less than half, at 720 megawatts.
Carrizo will have a different use case than other U.S. pumped storage projects, Conroy said. Many facilities have one customer and one generator. A nuclear plant, for instance, might be paired with a pumped storage system so that the nuclear plant can run continuously.
For Carrizo, there might be a consortium of utilities that have multiple generating sources feeding into this project and moving the water uphill. They would take delivery of that power across a large region with different climatic conditions and different needs for when and how they use the stored power. That means operating the facility will be more complicated than a traditional pumped storage project. One thing is certain, Conroy said: the Navajo will have an equity stake.
Tribal Outlook
Caution on the part of the Navajo would be understandable. The tribe’s lands have long been the center of energy developments with environmentally ruinous but economically helpful outcomes.
Uranium mining to fuel the Manhattan Project and then the nation’s reactors polluted rivers and groundwater, as did the coal mines that fed Four Corners Power Plant and the now-shuttered Navajo Generating Station and San Juan Generating Station. On the other hand, these developments provided employment and income. Navajo Mine, which supplies Four Corners Power Plant, accounts for about 35 percent of the Navajo Nation’s general fund.
Navajo and other tribal lands in the Four Corners region have been the target for a handful of pumped storage proposals in recent years. The Navajo Nation opposed three projects proposed for the Little Colorado River watershed, which were either withdrawn by the developer or denied a permit by FERC. Two other projects – Carrizo and Sweetwater, both using San Juan River water – are still in development. Sweetwater, a smaller project with eight hours duration, is being co-developed with the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe. A third project, Western Navajo Pumped Storage, which would be located near the former Navajo Generating Station, received a FERC preliminary permit in August.
Carrizo has not run into the same level of opposition as the other proposals. In part that is due to the proposed use of the San Juan River instead of groundwater, said Erika Pirotte, an assistant attorney general in the Navajo Nation’s water rights unit. Many Navajo communities rely on groundwater, and using it for pumped storage was viewed as unreasonable.
The lack of strong opposition is also because of Kinetic’s engagement with the Navajo Nation. The company has held meetings with the Beclabito, Red Valley, and Teec Nos Pos chapters, in addition to meetings with Navajo Nation agencies and Buu Nygren, the Navajo Nation president. Kinetic has a memorandum of understanding with Nygren, who also signed a letter of support for the project’s DOE grant application.
“We have the support of the council,” Conroy said. “We have a very high level of support from the president, and he is just extraordinarily interested in this project and seeing that it moves forward.”
From the Navajo perspective, what is interesting are the “ancillary benefits” that could come from the water supply pipeline, Pirotte said. Once the reservoirs are filled and the pipeline’s full capacity is not needed, the extra space could be repurposed for tribal water supply uses.
“That’s why the feasibility studies are really important for the Nation, because they help us understand to what extent Navajo Nation resources would be used for the project,” Pirotte said.
None of this is immediately around the corner, Conroy cautions. The DOE grant extends for more than two years. The FERC permitting process could be another two to four years. With Congress and the Trump administration talking about faster permitting and better coordination, that timeline is a best guess.
And then there is the question of tribal authority in the permitting process, not just for the Carrizo project but for other such developments. Will FERC abide by its 2024 stance that preliminary permits for hydropower projects on tribal lands require tribal consent? The Trump administration would like to see that policy scrapped. If FERC approves a project must a tribe assent to all the associated infrastructure? Will the Navajo be allowed to conduct reviews and issue permits?
And then there is construction, the biggest component. That will take four to six years, Conroy said.
Even on an ambitious timeline, Carrizo is not operating until the mid-2030s.
“I’m 77,” Taylor said. “I probably won’t see it.”
This story was produced by Circle of Blue, in partnership with The Water Desk at the University of Colorado Boulder’s Center for Environmental Journalism.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
This Parshall flume measures the water in the Alfalfa Ditch on Surface Creek near Cedaredge. The Colorado Division of Water Resources estimates there are 2,800 diversions of more than 1 cfs without measuring devices across the Western Slope. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
The state of Colorado is ramping up an effort to measure water use on the Western Slope, developing rules and standards and rolling out a grant program to help water users pay for diversion measurement devices.
With input from water users, officials from the Colorado Division of Water Resources are creating technical guidance for each of the four major Western Slope river basins on how agricultural water users should measure the water they take from streams. The state is now doling out $7 million from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to eligible water users with faulty or missing devices to install structures such as flumes, weirs and pumps at their point of diversion.
Twenty-five percent of the funding is earmarked for each of the four river basins: Gunnison (Division 4); Colorado River mainstem (Division 5); Yampa-White-Green (Division 6); and San Juan-Dolores (Division 7). The first round of funding will go to Divisions 6 and 7, and applications close at the end of January. The goal is to have all the projects complete by 2029.
Measurement rules for Divisions 6 and 7 have been finalized and are in effect; rules for Division 4 are in the draft phase, and state officials are accepting comments until Dec. 19 on the draft rules in Division 5.
With thousands of diversions from small tributaries across rural, remote and mountainous areas, figuring out precisely how much water is used in Colorado has historically been challenging. According to state officials, there are about 2,800 diversions of more than 1 cubic foot per second from Western Slope rivers and streams that are not currently being measured. Historically, the state has required measuring devices on only diversions that have been involved in calls. When a downstream senior water rights holder is not getting the full amount of water they are entitled to, they can place a “call,” which forces junior upstream water users to cut back.
This Parshall flume measuring device is being installed on a ditch on Morrisania Mesa near Parachute. The state of Colorado has $7 million in federal funds to distribute to water users to install measuring devices on their diversions from waterways. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Compact compliance
The push for more-accurate measurement comes at a time when there is increasing competition for dwindling water supplies, as well as growing pressure on the Colorado River’s Upper Basin states (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) to conserve water. Whether through forced cuts under the terms of the 1922 Colorado River Compact or through a voluntary conservation program that pays water users to cut back, the state will almost certainly face future cuts to its water use.
According to Jason Ullmann, who is the state engineer and director of the division of water resources, accurate and consistent water measurement is a prerequisite for making basinwide cuts related to the compact.
“While we’ve always been in compliance with the [1922 Colorado River] compact, we haven’t had to do a West Slope-wide administration,” Ullmann said. “We just don’t want to be in the position of having to do that on an emergency basis. We want to be proactive and provide people consistent and reliable standards for what we expect and work with them to get to a point where we do have that more accurate measurement network before that happens.”
Although the Colorado River Compact splits the river’s water evenly between the Upper Basin and the Lower Basin (California, Arizona and Nevada) with 7.5 million acre-feet each annually, the agreement says nothing about what happens when there’s not enough water to meet these allocations. A “compact call” is a theoretical legal concept, whose definition is hotly debated among water managers.
One way it could play out is that the Upper Basin states would have to cut off some water users in order to send enough water downstream to meet their obligations to the Lower Basin. If that happens, Colorado would need a plan for who gets cut off first. Under the strict application water law known as prior appropriation, the oldest water rights get first use of rivers and junior water rights are the first to be cut.
Michael Cohen, a senior fellow at the Pacific Institute, where he has written about the uncertainties of water use and measurement in the Upper Basin, said collecting better data will help water managers figure out where cuts should come from.
“Moving forward, it looks more and more likely that there’s going to be some kind of compact call,” Cohen said. “Then the state of Colorado, as well as the other Upper Basin states, need to figure out how they’re going to enforce that kind of call.”
This Parshall flume was installed in the Yampa River basin in 2020 and replaced the old rusty flume seen in the background. The state of Colorado is working toward creating measurement rules and installing measurement devices across the Western Slope. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Managing scarcity
But compact compliance is not the only reason that water measurement is needed. Scientists have shown that climate change has contributed to a 20% decline in flows from the 20th century average, and that every 1 degree Celsius of warming results in a 9% reduction in flows. The combination of climate change and a historic drought means that rivers that had never before experienced shortages or calls have started experiencing them in recent years. In the past few years, the Yampa and White rivers, in the northwest corner of the state, have had first-ever calls and have been designated “over-appropriated,” meaning there’s more water demand than supply at certain times.
“Even if you toss the compact situation out, it’s just the practical reality that we’re seeing less snowpack and we have more calls,” Ullmann said. “We’re just in need of improving that measurement accuracy because of the need for administration.”
John Cyran, an attorney who worked on developing the measurement rules for the South Platte River basin and is now a senior attorney with the Healthy Rivers department of Boulder-based environmental group Western Resource Advocates, uses the analogy of a pizza party with too-few pizzas where hungry partygoers are allowed only two slices each to illustrate how measurement is needed in times of scarcity.
“Just like sharing a shrinking pizza or Thanksgiving pie, our water supply is declining,” Cyran said. “The pie is getting smaller. So it is increasingly important to make sure that people don’t take more than their share. But we can’t manage what we don’t measure.”
Tightening up water measurement across the Western Slope could also help Upper Basin water managers as they grapple with a future conservation program that pays water users to cut back and then stores that water in a pool in Lake Powell. A criticism of past pilot programs was that the saved water was not tracked to Lake Powell. Water users downstream of a conservation project could pick up the extra water, with no guarantee that any of it reached the reservoir. Measurement rules and devices could help ensure that this conserved water is “shepherded” to Lake Powell.
Measurement is the first step toward management of a scarce public resource, Cyran said.
“The first step is measuring how much water is being diverted,” Cyran said. “The next step is management – making sure that folks only divert their share and that water we conserve stays in the stream and is not diverted by another user.”
Colorado River Basin map via the Babbit Center for Land and Water Policy/Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
The drought situation has improved markedly in the Southwest since the end of the last water year, especially in the Four Corners area. Source: National Drought Monitor.
We are now two months into the water year — and a couple of days into meteorological winter — and so far both are pretty weird. On the one hand, much of the West is covered by one of the scantest snowpacks for early December in decades. On the other, it’s also been one of the wettest beginnings to the water year in recent memory.
Graph of 2026 water year snowpack levels for the Animas River watershed (which this year reflects that for most of western Colorado and the Upper Colorado River Basin), along with every year since 2000 that has started as sparsely or more so than this year. Note that the 2008 snowpack in the Animas was just as meagre in early December as it is this year. Then the snows came with a vengeance, leading to one of the biggest winters on record as well as a very healthy spring runoff that lasted well into July.
While snow levels are paltry, the weather gods have delivered plenty of precipitation to the region. While that has helped ease drought conditions, it is no substitute for a healthy snowpack.
Adding to the uncanniness has been the wave of generous storms that have dumped up to a foot of snow on Colorado ski areas and snarled traffic, leading to at least two multi-car pileups on I-70 and shutting down other arteries — yet still failing to bring snowpack levels to anywhere near “normal.”
It’s a big ol’ mixed bag, in other words. The big October deluges eased the drought in much of the region, but the warm temperatures and snow drought don’t bode well for next spring’s runoff. Meagre early winter snowpacks can make and have made dramatic comebacks (e.g. water year 2008 in southwestern Colorado), and another storm is moving into the region as I write this, yet the National Weather Service’s is predicting an abnormally warm and dry winter for much of the Southwest.
🌵 Public Lands 🌲
The Grand County commissioners’ “Access and Capacity Enhancement Alternative” plan aimed at increasing visitation at Arches National Park was just the tip of an iceberg, it seems. Yesterday (Dec. 1), Commissioner Brian Martinez presented the plan to a group of state and federal officials at a closed State of Utah and National Park Service Workshop in Salt Lake City.
The meeting’s purpose, according to the official agenda, is:
This may sound fairly innocuous (and maybe it is). But given some of the players, it may also be the latest volley in Utah’s long-running effort to seize control of public lands. The meeting was run by the Interior Department’s associate deputy secretary, Karen Budd-Falen, and Redge Johnson, who leads Utah’s Public Lands Policy Coordinating Office.
Budd-Falen built her legal career on fighting federal agencies, including the Interior Department, and was part of the Sagebrush Rebellion and the Wise Use movements that endeavored to turn federal land over to states and counties and to weaken regulations on the extractive industries. Johnson, meanwhile, was a driving force behind the state’s effort to take control of 18.5 million acres of Bureau of Land Management land in the state.
An anti-BLM sticker (referring, presumably, to the federal land agency, not the Black Lives Matter movement) at another Phil Lyman rally against “federal overreach” and motorized travel closures in southeastern Utah back in 2014. Photo credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk
It’s not clear what is meant when they say the meeting is aimed at achieving Trump’s agenda. As far as national parks go, the administration has been rather chaotic: Freezing hiring, laying off thousands of staff (only to rehire some of them), slashing budgets, and allowing visitors to run roughshod over the parks during the government shutdown.
It sure looks like they are trying to cause the parks to fail, which would give them an excuse to further privatize their functions. Private for-profit corporations already run the lodges, campgrounds, and other services inside many parks. That’s why, during the shutdown, concessionaire-run campgrounds within parks continued to operate, while all of the government-run functions, such as entrance-fee-collection, were shuttered. In this way a false contrast was created between the functional privately-run operations and the dysfunctional public ones; visitors during that time would be excused for preferring the former.
The timing of this meeting, purportedly to receive input from gateway communities, is kind of odd. I have to wonder whether the Interior Department consulted local elected officials before raising entry fees for foreign visitors to $100 at Zion and Bryce Canyon National Parks in Utah, along with Grand Canyon, Acadia, Everglades, Glacier, Grand Teton, Rocky Mountain, Sequoia & Kings Canyon, Yellowstone, and Yosemite National Parks.
The Southwest’s tourism industry is highly reliant on international visitors. Visitation from abroad is already down, thanks mostly to the Trump administration’s “America First” creed and its general hostility to the rest of the world. Singling out foreign travelers for these higher fees — even if only at the most popular parks — is likely to dampen visitation from abroad even more, which will ripple through Western economies.
Grand County’s bid to cram even more visitors into Arches National Park won’t be too effective if would be visitors don’t even make it to the United States …
🗺️ Messing with Maps 🧭
This is just another old map that caught my attention, in part because it’s a reminder of how extensive the railroad network was, even in the rugged parts of Colorado, back in the late 1800s and early 1900s. This one shows the Denver & Rio Grande rail lines in 1893.
In Brief Unusually wet conditions in the Basin in October and November 2025, combined with reduced releases from some reservoirs, led to a basin-wide increase in storage for the two-month period. The combined contents of Lake Powell and Lake Mead increased during the two months for only the second time since 2010, and storage in the San Juan River basin increased by 19%, especially in Vallecito and Navajo Reservoirs. These changes were a welcome respite from the relentless depletion of storage that has dominated the last few years. Nevertheless, the upcoming winter snow season is predicted to be below average, and total active storage in the Basin is less than a 2 year supply when compared with recent Basin-wide consumptive uses and losses.
Total precipitation (inches) from 9-15 October 2025 with gridded data from the PRISM Climate Group and observations from the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network. Credit: Russ Schumacher/Colorado Climate Center
The Details
The rains of October and November 2025 slowed depletion of the Colorado River’s reservoirs due to increases in stream flow and reduced reservoir releases in some places. Water levels rose in a few reservoirs, and autumn’s rains provided a small bit of flexibility for water managers at the beginning of what is likely to be a below-average winter snow season.
As of November 30, the Basin’s 46 reservoirs held 24.63 million af (acre feet) of active storage[1], of which 90% was in 12 federal reservoirs,[2] including 15.00 million af in Lake Powell and Lake Mead (hereafter, Powell+Mead) and 4.88 million af in 8 federal reservoirs upstream from Lake Powell (Fig.1). This amount of storage is similar to conditions in early 2022, a situation that was described at that time as a crisis. If we divide the total active storage in the Basin’s 46 reservoirs by the basin-wide total annual rate of consumptive use and loss that was 12.7 million af in 2024, the basin-wide reservoir water supply would sustain Basin-wide use for less than 2 years. We continue to live at the doorstep of crisis.
Figure 1. Graph showing active storage in Colorado River basin reservoirs between January 1, 2021, and November 30, 2025. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies
Basin-wide reservoir storage stabilized in October and November, because Powell+Mead storage stabilized and storage in the San Juan River basin increased. Total Inflow to Lake Powell exceeded releases for more than one week between October 11 and October 18, when Lake Powell increased by 105,000 af[3] which is a 1.6% gain (Fig. 2). Approximately 40% of the total inflow came from the San Juan River, and the monthly October inflows were the largest since 2015. The gain in storage in Lake Powell during this weeklong period exceeded depletions during the rest of the month, and Lake Powell gained approximately 52,000 af during the month. Lake Powell lost 147,000 af in November.
Figure 2. Graph showing inflow and outflow from Lake Powell and active storage between October 1 and November 30, 2025. Total monthly flow at Lees Ferry, representing the total releases from Lake Powell, were 490,000 af in October and 501,000 af in November. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies
In contrast, the autumn rains did not significantly increase inflow to Lake Mead, because most of the inflows come from scheduled releases from Lake Powell. These reservoir releases were supplemented by 101,000 af of inflows downstream from Lees Ferry[4] and 8000 af from the Virgin River.[5] The most significant changes in Lake Mead occurred at the end of November when releases from Hoover Dam were significantly reduced (Fig. 3).
Figure 3. Graph showing inflow and outflow from Lake Mead and active storage between October 1 and November 30, 2025. Total monthly flow inflow of the Colorado River, representing the total releases from Lake Powell and inflows within Grand Canyon, were 574,000 af in October and 550,000 af in November. Reservoir releases from Hoover Dam were 485,000 af in October and 415,000 af in November. Withdrawals and return flows of the Southern Nevada Water Authority were not included in these data. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies
Together, total active storage in Powell+Mead increased by 63,000 af during October,[6] and decreased by only 38,000 af in November (Fig. 4).[7] More significant than the gains, however, was that the the pace of reservoir depletion was significantly slowed. Storage in Powell+Mead increased by approximately 25,000 af in October and November, only the second time since 2010 that total storage in these two reservoirs increased during these two months.[8]
Figure 4. Graph showing active storage in Lake Powell, Lake Mead, and in Powell+Mead between January 1, 2023, and November 30, 2025. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies
Reservoir storage in the San Juan River basin increased more than in any other part of the Colorado River Basin. Five San Juan basin reservoirs increased by 197,000 af in October and November, mostly in Navajo and Vallecito Reservoirs.[9] Not much happened elsewhere, however. The 21 reservoirs of the upper Colorado River watershed lost 57,000 af during October and November, and 16 reservoirs in the Green River watershed lost 10,000 af during the same period.
[2] Taylor Park, Blue Mesa, Morrow Point, Crystal, Fontenelle, Flaming Gorge, Vallecito, Navajo, Lake Powell, Lake Mead, Lake Mohave, and Lake Havasu.
[3] Inflow to Lake Powell was computed as the sum of mean daily discharge of the Colorado River at Gypsum Canyon near Hite (gage 09328960), Dirty Devil River above Poison Springs near Hanksville (09333500), Escalante River near Escalante (09337500), and San Juan River near Bluff (09379500), as reported by the U.S. Geological Survey. Outflow from Lake Powell was computed as the mean daily discharge of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry (09380000), because stream flow is measured 15 miles downstream from the dam and includes ground-water seepage around the dam. Lake Powell storage increased between October 10 and October 20, as reported by Reclamation.
[4] Inflows within Grand Canyon were calculated as the difference between measurements of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry (09380000), Colorado River above Diamond Creek near Peach Springs (09420000), and Diamond Creek nr Peach Springs (09404208).
[5] Virgin River below confluence Muddy River near Overton (09419530)
[6] Between October 1 and November 1, 2025, active storage in Lake Powell increased 52,000 af and 11,000 af in Lake Mead.
[7] Between November 1 and November 30, active storage in Lake Powell decreased by 147,000 af and increased by 109,000 af in Lake Mead.
[8] During the previous 15 years between 2010 and 2024, total storage in Powell+Mead increased by 36,000 af in 2011. During the other 14 years of that period, the median depletion of Powell+Mead was 436,000 af.
[9] Storage in Navajo Reservoir increased 126,000 af between October 9 and November 8 and increased by 114,000 af in October and November. Active storage in Vallecito Reservoir gained 68,000 af in October and November. At the end of November, Navajo Reservoir was 60% of its 1.65 million af capacity. Vallecito Reservoir was 77% of its 125,400 af capacity.
Map of the San Juan River, a tributary of the Colorado River, in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, USA. Made using USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47456307
The Trump administration has nominated Steve Pearce, a hard-right Republican and former congressman from New Mexico, to lead the Bureau of Land Management. Pearce’s political career was infused with hostility toward public lands and the BLM, so, as one would expect for these guys, Trump chose him to oversee those lands and head up the same agency.
Pearce has opposed new national monument designations, is a fan of drilling public lands, has tried to weaken or eliminate the Endangered Species Act, lied about wolves in an effort to defund the Mexican wolf recovery program, received a 4% score from the League of Conservation Voters. … the list goes on.
A hat button expresses a sentiment common in parts of the rural West — and among the folks the Trump administration picks to run the Bureau of Land Management. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
You may remember that Trump’s first pick to helm the BLM didn’t work out so well. Soon after his inauguration, he nominated oil and gas lobbyist Kathleen Sgamma to fill the post and carry out his “energy dominance” agenda on public lands. But Sgamma pulled out after it was revealed that in the days following the Jan. 6, 2021, riots and invasion of the U.S. Capitol, Sgamma wrote that she was “disgusted by the violence” and “President Trump’s role in spreading misinformation that incited it.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s first-term pick, William Perry Pendley, was never confirmed due to his checkered past, and was found to unlawfully be serving as acting director.
If confirmed, Pearce would probably be involved in determining whether the Trump administration will revoke a ban on new oil and gas leasing within 10 miles of Chaco Culture National Historical Park’s boundary. The Biden administration implemented the ban on the urging of Pueblo leaders to keep drilling away from the park and Chacoan-era Great Houses that surround it, but to which the national park protections do not extend.
The Navajo Nation initially supported the leasing moratorium, as well, but under the Buu Nygren administration reversed itself after allotment owners within the buffer zone protested, saying the ban would indirectly hamper drilling on their allotments and cut into their royalty income.
Project 2025, the extreme right-wing’s playbook for the Trump administration, called for revoking the leasing moratorium, and doing so certainly fits with Trump’s “energy dominance” and “drill, baby, drill” agenda. Late last month the Interior Department informed tribal leaders it was moving forward with and sought their input on possibly re-opening the land to the oil and gas industry.
Meanwhile, the BLM is busy auctioning off oil and gas leases on public land in the Greater Chaco Region just outside the buffer zone around the park.
This week (yes, during the government shutdown), the agency leased about 3,100 acres of land to oil and gas companies in the San Juan Basin. This was regardless of multiple formal and informal protests opposing the lease sale, including ones from environmental groups, the Torreon/Star Lake Chapter of the Navajo Nation, and Sovereign Energy, a Pueblo women-led organization committed to advancing tribal energy sovereignty and protecting sacred landscapes.
“The BLM’s continued approval of lease sales in and around the Ojo Encino, Torreon/Star Lake, and Counselor Chapters not only perpetuates harm to frontline communities,” Sovereign Energy wrote, “but also demonstrates a systemic failure to uphold federal trust and treaty responsibilities. These lands are not vacant or disposable — they are the living homelands of Indigenous peoples with profound cultural and ceremonial importance.”
One parcel received no bids, while the bidders on five others will pay just $10 to $12 per acre for the exclusive right to drill them. A seventh parcel, in Rio Arriba County, received a high bid of $501 per acre.
The agency is planning a June auction to lease a 160-acre parcel and a 671-acre parcel in the Greater Chaco Region. The larger tract is a few miles northeast of Lybrook and the other one is about seven miles southeast of Lybrook in piñon-juniper-strewn hills.
***
The federal government shutdown may be depriving thousands of workers of paychecks, imperiling food stamps and other benefits, and leading to delayed and cancelled flights nationwide, but it isn’t stopping the Trump administration from implementing its “drill, baby, drill” agenda.
The BLM has issued 628 drilling permits for federal lands since the shutdown began, according to the Center for Western Priorities’ oil and gas tracker, including 530 in New Mexico, of which seven were issued by the Farmington Field Office for drilling in the San Juan Basin (the rest were for the much busier Permian Basin).
Rig counts remain relatively low, which indicates that oil and gas companies are snatching up as many drilling permits as they can while the getting is good, but may not use them anytime soon.
A Delta County hayfield (freshly cut in early November(!!!!), with the Garnet Mesa Solar Project in the background.
🔋 Notes from the Energy Transition 🔌
Parts of the agriculture-heavy Delta County in western Colorado could certainly be described as pastoral or idyllic, with the rows of vineyards and fruit orchards beautifully framing the West Elk and Ragged Mountains in the background. In summer (and even in November, this year), hay bales sit in freshly cut green fields and sparkling yellow and flame-orange cottonwoods rise up along stream and ditch banks.
So when I heard a couple years back that the Delta County commissioners had put the kibosh on a proposed utility-scale solar project, in part because it would defile prime agricultural land and views, I was somewhat sympathetic. It would, indeed, be atrocious to wipe out a viable orchard to make way for a sea of solar panels. That said, I was a bit flabbergasted, too, since Delta County is normally pro-private property rights to a fault (I doubt they’d deny an industrial-scale feedlot or chicken farm or, for that matter, a coal mine), and because the region needs new, clean energy sources to replace and displace natural gas and coal generation.
Eventually the county relented — in part because the proponents agreed to design the project to allow for sheep grazing — and approved the project. Now the Garnet Mesa solar project is complete. I went and checked it out last week, and it wasn’t until I actually saw it that I understood where, exactly, it is — and how my concerns about it wrecking idyllic farmland were misplaced.
Don’t get me wrong: Garnet Mesa has a distinct, spare sort of beauty to it. Its wide-open spaces afford lovely views of Grand Mesa and the other mountains in the distance, and there is an occasional irrigated hayfield here and there (along with patches of the aforementioned cottonwoods). But the ash-gray soil has very high levels of selenium, making growing things difficult, and the whole area has long been a sort of sacrifice zone and dumping place for dilapidated single-wides, old cars, and various other detritus.
It is the kind of place, in other words, that a developer might expect to be able to put up a solar project — even a really big one — without much resistance, especially on private land that hadn’t been in agriculture for years, if ever. But these days it seems that there’s a sort of knee-jerk opposition to almost any solar development, large or small, on relatively undisturbed public lands or long-abused private lands. And that’s really too bad.
Certainly developers, even of “clean energy,” should not be given carte blanche to build wherever they see fit. And they absolutely should look to brownfields, industrial rooftops, parking lots, and other already-developed areas to put their energy installations, first. But the fact is, we’re never going to be able to generate enough clean energy to displace coal and natural gas without some utility-scale installations on land that isn’t a rooftop or a parking lot.
Admittedly, the Garnet Mesa project is striking looking, and I have to agree with a friend’s description of it as “totally industrial.” But it’s also got its own aesthetic appeal to it, it doesn’t mar the long-distance vistas, and the fact that those panels are generating enough power to electrify some 18,000 homes without burning or emitting anything is super cool, if you ask me.
Garnet Mesa solar project. Photo credit: Jonathan P. Thompson
📖 Reading (and watching) Room 🧐
Krista Langlois has a nice and heartbreaking piece in High Country News reflecting on the ICE raids in Durango, the subsequent protests, and the violent response to the protesters.
Jerry Redfern continues his strong reporting for Capital & Main on oil and gas industry misdeeds in New Mexico’s San Juan Basin with a story about the Hodgson ranching family that is butting heads with Hilcorp Energy. The Hodgsons used to have a decent working relationship with the oil companies, but when Hilcorp moved in and acquired ConocoPhillips’ assets, things went downhill. Now, the Hodgsons — along with their neighbors Don and Jane Schreiber — are pushing back and trying to get Hilcorp to clean up their act. It isn’t an easy row to hoe by any means.
NM LAWS coalition is hosting a screening of Annie Ersinghaus’s new documentary, The Land of Sacrifice: The Burden of New Mexico’s Oil and Gas Extraction on Nov. 22, from 5 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. at the Totah Theater in Farmington. After the film, there will be a Q&A with a panel of local experts and advocates. Check out the trailer below.
I just finished watching The Lowdown, Sterlin Harjo’s new tv series, and I gotta say: It’s really damned good. I highly recommend it.
⛏️ Mining Monitor ⛏️
I recently joined Kate Groetzinger and Aaron Weiss of Center for Western Priorities to talk uranium mining and the so-called nuclear renaissance. You can listen to our discussion here or, if you don’t mind looking at my made-for-radio mug, you can watch it by clicking on the image below.
📸 Parting Shot 🎞️
A climber enjoys an unusually warm late-October day in Unaweep Canyon. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
The unofficial results of Tuesday’s election are in, with Town of Pagosa Springs voters voting in favor of a 1 percent sales tax rate increase for sewerage and wastewater reuse facilities beginning Jan. 1, 2026. The following vote totals were accurate as of late Wednesday morning, Nov. 5. Election results will remain unofficial until Nov. 26, which is the deadline for county canvass boards to complete the canvass and submit the official election abstract to the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office.
“The voters confirmed loud and clear that we need to fix our ailing sewer collection and forced main system and to provide a long-term solution,” Pagosa Springs Town Manager David Harris wrote in a statement to The SUN. “We appreciate those who understand the necessity of this system and how it relates to the economic vitality of our community and region.”
According to the ballot issue, the increase is to “construct, reconstruct, improve, repair, better, extend, operate and maintain sewerage and wastewater reuse facilities to serve the town, including facilities of the Pagosa Springs Sanitation General Improvement District.
An image of the ruins of Chetro Ketl in Chaco Canyon (New Mexico, United States); shown is the complex’s great kiva. By National Park Service (United States) – Chaco Canyon National Historical Park: Photo Gallery, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1536637
The Bureau of Land Management informed Navajo President Buu Nygren that it intends to revoke a ban on new mining claims and mineral leases on more than 300,000 acres surrounding Chaco Canyon.
Then-President Joe Biden withdrew the land from mining and mineral activity in 2023, a move meant to protect land and cultural resources in the region.
The ban on new activity upset many people who live near the canyon and who rely on mineral leases or mining claims for income. The issue has also divided tribal leaders in Arizona and New Mexico.
The Bureau of Land Management is moving to revoke a 2023 order that had prevented new mining claims and mineral leases for 20 years on more than 300,000 acres of public land surrounding Chaco Culture National Historical Park. In a letter to Navajo Nation President Buu Nygren, the BLM’s Farmington Field Office said it would initiate government-to-government consultation to fully revoke Public Land Order 7923, which was issued under former President Joe Biden. The order withdrew approximately 336,404 acres of public land in a 10-mile radius surrounding Chaco Culture National Historical Park in New Mexico from new mining claims and mineral leasing, while preserving valid existing rights. It has been controversial among many Navajo Nation members living near the area who rely heavily on gas and oil leasing of their property…That decision has also created tension between the Navajo Nation and Pueblo tribes that share deep cultural and ancestral connections to Chaco Canyon.
The San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico and southwestern Colorado is known for producing oodles of fossil fuels over the last century. But it is really so, so much more than that: An epicenter of cultures, lovely landscapes, and geological wonders. It is also a hotspot for fossils, some of which recently have yielded new information about the dinosaurs’ last days on earth.
While it’s generally accepted that non-avian dinosaurs were wiped out by an asteroid some 66 million years ago, researchers have long debated whether the big reptiles were doing well leading up to the cataclysmic event, or were already in decline and headed for extinction. A study published last month in Science, based on the fossil record of the San Juan Basin, finds that a diverse array of dinosaurs were actually flourishing at the end of the Cretaceous period. Had it not been for that asteroid, they might have stuck around for quite a bit longer.
And that’s not all for San Juan Basin dinosaur news! In September, a team of researchers announced they had identified a new species of duck-billed dinosaur in northwestern New Mexico. The Ahshiselsaurus, an herbivore, weighed up to nine tons and spanned up to 35 feet from bill to tail.
In a news release, the New Mexico Department of Cultural Affairs notes that the bones that led to the identification were unearthed in 1916 in what is now the Ah-shi-sle-pah Wilderness in San Juan County. “In 1935, the fossils were classified as belonging to another hadrosaurid called Kritosaurus navajovius. However, this new research identified distinctions between these fossils and all known hadrosaurids, including several key differences in the animal’s skull.”
Cottonwood trees in full autumn splendor in the Paradox Valley, Colorado. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
🥵 Aridification Watch 🐫
This past weekend, my sister held the annual garlic-planting and apple cider-making ritual at her farm in the North Fork Valley in western Colorado. Folks from all around gather to help put thousands of garlic cloves into the ground. At the same time, a handful of us crank the handle and toss apples into the 125-year-old cider press that my ancestors brought to the Animas Valley from Pennsylvania in the early part of the century.
It was a lovely day, with an intensely blue, cloudless sky and high temperatures in the 60s. We felt lucky to have such conditions in early November, but they weren’t wildly abnormal. Though a few places in the region set daily high temperature records, at least as many also set daily low temperature records as the mercury dipped down to around 22° F, even in the lowlands, overnight.
More striking to me was when I stopped in Silverton on the trip back to Durango to take a bike ride on the new trails on Boulder Mountain. That mountain biking is even an option in Silverton in early November is a little odd. That the trails were bone dry at 10,600 feet in elevation is even odder. And that I was not just warm, but downright hot and sweaty in just short sleeves and shorts felt downright weird.
A cursory look at the data reveals that this has been one of the wettest — and least snowiest — starts to a water year on record, at least in southwestern Colorado. The huge, flood-spawning rains of October pushed the accumulated precipitation levels up into record high territory. But most of that liquid abundance fell as rain, not snow, even at high elevations. And the warm temperatures that followed has deteriorated what little snowpack existed. It’s striking to see only a thin layer of white painting its designs on north-facing slopes at 12,000 or 13,000 feet. And without a radical shift in weather (which is certainly possible), it’s hard to imagine ski areas opening by Thanksgiving.
Still, we’re only about one month into the 2026 Water Year, so it’s far too early to draw any conclusions from the data. Last year started out as one of the snowier seasons on record, before fading out into a pretty sparse snow year.
North-facing peaks in the San Juan Mountains, late October 2025. There’s snow, but a lot less than one would expect. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
📖 Reading Room 🧐
Nick Bowlin and ProPublica just published an extensive investigation into oil and gas field “purges,” which is when injecting produced wastewater underground forces toxic water to spew out of old wells in mind-blowing volumes, killing vegetation and trees and contaminating the earth.| Bowlin’s investigation focuses on Oklahoma — where regulators are doing little to address it — but these purges occur anywhere that produced wastewater is injected into the ground as a way to dispose of it, which is to say every oil and gas field from Wyoming to New Mexico. Each barrel of oil pulled from the ground is accompanied by anywhere from three to 30 barrels of brackish wastewater that can be contaminated with an assorted soup of hazardous chemicals. This means that hundreds of billions of this stuff must be disposed of each year, usually by deep injection. As oil production continues, and as more and more wells are “orphaned” or abandoned without being plugged, the purge problem will only grow worse.
KUNC’s Alex Hagar has a nice, good-news piece on how beavers are returning to Glen Canyon and its tributary canyons as Lake Powell’s water levels recede. It’s yet more evidence that if — when — Lake Powell disappears, the canyons it and ecosystems it drowned will eventually recover, and may do so far more quickly than might be expected.
🔋Notes from the Energy Transition 🔌
Those of you who watch Denver television will certainly recognize longtime Denver 7 weather forecaster. He retired a little while back and has taken on a sort of second career advocating for a Super Grid — an integrated, nationwide, direct current, underground power grid designed to move power from where it’s generated to where it’s needed when it’s needed.
It’s a cool idea, but also a very, very ambitious one. Instead of rehashing all of the details, I’ll let you watch this video of his presentation, which gives a very informative overview of the whole energy situation.
Editor’s note: Last week I had the pleasure of speaking at the San Juan Citizens’ Alliance celebration of 50 years of the Weminuche Wilderness, Colorado’s largest wilderness area at nearly 500,000 acres. Congress passed the legislation establishing the Weminuche in 1975, and it now covers some of the most spectacular landscape in the nation. This is an adapted version of the talk I gave (with a lot fewer umms and uhhs in it).
As I’m sure you all are aware, our public lands have been under attack for a while now, but especially in the last nine months, from both the Trump administration and from the Republican-dominated Congress.
This all out assault has given me many reasons to worry about the fate of some of my favorite places. I have worried about Sen. Mike Lee, the MAGA adherent from Utah, selling off Animas Mountain or Jumbo Mountain to the housing developers; I have fretted about Trump shrinking or eliminating Bears Ears, Grand Staircase-Escalante, or Ancestral Footprints of the Grand Canyon national monuments and opening them to the latest uranium mining rush; and I worry that regulatory rollbacks and the administration’s “energy dominance” agenda will make the San Juan Basin and the Greater Chaco Region more vulnerable to a potential new natural gas boom driven by data center demand for more and more power.
But one place I haven’t worried (as much) about being attacked by the GOP and Trump is the Weminuche Wilderness. That’s not because I think Trump or Lee are above messing with wilderness areas. They aren’t. In fact, just this week they opened the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge up to oil and gas leasing. Still, the Wilderness Act is one of the few major environmental laws these guys haven’t gone after directly — at least so far.
But more than that, the reason I feel the Weminuche is less vulnerable to MAGA attacks is because I am confident that even the most die-hard anti-environmentalist sorts understand that an attack on the Weminuche would be an attack on this region and its identity. The Weminuche has simply become ingrained in the collective psyche of southwest Colorado and beyond. If the feds were to try to open it to logging or drilling or mining or any other sort of development, there would be a widespread, deep revolt from this entire region, even from many a Trump voter.
In part, that’s because of how special the place is, with or without a wilderness designation. But it also has to do with the way the wilderness was established, and the widespread local support it ultimately garnered.
Not long after the Wilderness Act of 1964 was signed into law, federal and state agencies and residents of southwestern Colorado began talking about establishing a wilderness area in the remote San Juan Mountains. Areas such as the Silverton Caldera had been heavily mined, and no longer qualified for wilderness designation (even if the mining industry and local communities would have allowed it).
But the heart of the San Juans in and around the Needle and Grenadier ranges certainly fit the bill. In 1859, Macomb expedition geologist J.S. Newberry described the San Juans as a “thousand interlocking spurs and narrow valleys, [which] form a labyrinth whose extent and intricacy will at present defy all attempts at detailed topographical analysis. Among these are precipices, ornamented with imitations of columns, arches, and pilasters, which form some of the grandest specimens of nature’s Gothic architecture I have ever beheld. When viewed from some nearer point they must be even awful in their sublimity.”
“Awful” might be a bit harsh, but sublime? Indeed. That this should become a wilderness must have seemed like a no-brainer.
Nevertheless, the process to designate the Weminuche was no slam dunk. It took a half decade of wrangling and debate and boundary adjustments and congressional committee sausage-making. What to me is most remarkable, however, looking back on the process from our current, politically polarized era, is that the debates were not partisan. And even though there were differing opinions on where the boundaries should be drawn or even whether there should be any wilderness at all, the conversation was just that: a conversation, and a civil one at that.
Proposals were forwarded by the Forest Service and the Colorado Game & Fish Department. Meanwhile, the Citizens for the Weminuche Wilderness — made up of local advocates, ranchers, scientists, business people, and academics — came up with its own proposed boundaries.
My father chronicled some of the back and forth in an insert he put together and edited for the Durango Herald in 1969 called “The Wilderness Question.” It includes his editorials and news stories, but also opinion pieces from a variety of residents.
Looking back, it is a truly striking document. First off, there’s the fact that the Forest Service’s original proposal would have excluded Chicago Basin — now considered the heart of the wilderness area and a Mecca for backpackers and peak-baggers (and their attendant impacts) — and the City Reservoir trail and surrounding areas. They were left out, in part, because there were hundreds of mining claims in those areas, and the mining industry remained interested in them, despite their remoteness and difficult access.
The citizens group, however, was having none of that, and demanded that both areas be included in the wilderness area. Carving these areas out would be like cutting the soul from the place. Ranchers weighed in, as well. James Cole, who was described as a “prominent Basin rancher,” wrote this for the Herald supplement: “The La Plata County Cattlemen are in favor of the proposed Weminuche Wilderness Area … We would like to see Weminuche Creek and Chicago Basin, which the forest service would like to exclude, included in the Wilderness Area.”
It may seem odd, today, to see a livestock operators’ group advocating for morewilderness than even the feds wanted, but it makes a lot of sense. Not only are many ranchers conservation-minded, but their operations were unlikely to be affected by wilderness designation, since grazing is allowed in wilderness areas. It’s actually far stranger to see southeastern Utah ranchers become some of the most zealous opponents of Bears Ears National Monument, since its establishment didn’t ban or restrict current grazing allotments.
Fred Kroeger, a lifelong Republican1 and local water buffalo, who for years pushed for the construction of the Animas-La Plata water project, supported wilderness designation because it would protect the region’s water. (My grandparents, who were Animas Valley farmers and Republicans also supported the designation).
John Zink was a rancher, businessman, fisherman, and hunter and member of the citizens’ committee. In the Herald supplement he wrote that the proposed Weminuche Wilderness, “offers outdoor lovers an opportunity to support another sound conservation practice.”
He continued:
“For me it won’t be many years until slowed feet and dimmed eyes make the south 40 the logical place to hunt, and when the time comes, I expect to enjoy it. But a new and younger generation of outdoor lovers will then be climbing the peaks and wading the icy streams. I ask all outdoor enthusiasts to support the proposed Weminuche Wilderness Area, so each new generation may enjoy it much as it was when Chief Weminuche led his braves across this fabled land.”
That’s not to say everyone was in favor of the citizens’ proposal, but opposition was almost always on pragmatic, not political or ideological grounds. Probably the most strident opposing opinion piece in the Herald supplement came from an engineer at the Dixilyn Mine outside of Silverton, who didn’t want his industry shut out of any potentially mineralized areas, including Chicago Basin. Less than two decades later, the mining industry would be all but gone from the San Juans — and it had nothing to do with wilderness areas or other environmental protections.
John Zink’s son, Ed, who would go on to become a prominent businessman, pillar of the community, and the driving force establishing Durango as a cycling hub, asked that some areas, including the trail to City Reservoir, be excluded from the wilderness to accommodate the rights of “riders of machines.” He was talking about motorbikes back then, but would later focus more on mountain bikes. Zink, a staunch Republican, was undoubtedly bummed when the City Reservoir trail was included in the wilderness area, per the citizens’ proposal.
Nevertheless, a few years later, when I was about eight years old, I went on one of my earliest backpacking trips up the trail with Zink (who was my dad’s cousin), along with his sons Tim and Brian, nephew Johnny, and my dad and my brother. We hiked for hours without seeing anyone else — and without hearing the buzz of any motorized vehicles. Ed didn’t seem to miss his motorcycle one bit, nor did he or other motorized groups file lawsuits to try to block or shrink the wilderness, as is common practice today.
Ed would later be instrumental in establishing the Hermosa Creek wilderness area north of Durango, a compromise bill that left Hermosa Creek trail open to mountain bikes and motorbikes. Again, he worked from a pragmatic mindset: He wanted to protect the watershed from which his irrigation and drinking water came, and the forests that sustained game and wildlife, while also retaining recreational access.
When Congress finally passed the bill establishing the Weminuche, it went with the citizens’ group proposal and then some, designating 405,000 acres of federal land as a wilderness area and including Chicago Basin and City Reservoir. The Weminuche Wilderness was expanded in 1980 and again in 1993.
In the years since, public lands protection and conservation have become more and more politicized, along with just about everything else. The pragmatism of the 1970s has been abandoned in favor of ideology; public lands, somehow, have become a pawn in the culture wars. I’m sure both parties share some of the blame, but judging from their actions of late, the MAGA Republicans have become the staunchly anti-public lands conservation party — and bear absolutely no resemblance to the old school Republicans who fought for wilderness designation 50 years ago. Hell, for that matter, some Republican politicians don’t even resemble their selves from just a couple of decades ago.
Trump’s going to go away some day, and the attacks on public lands will probably ease off. But they won’t stop altogether. Humans’ hunger for more stuff and minerals and energy will undoubtedly put pressure on the places we hold dear, maybe even on the Weminuche. But polarization and political partisanship will only hamper our ability to save these places. Our only hope is to, somehow, recover some of the civility, the non-partisanship, and the pragmatism that fueled the designation of the Weminuche in 1975.
I have no idea how we’ll get there, but I do hold out hope. I really have no choice. I’ll leave you with some words written by my father, Ian Thompson, in the “Wilderness Question” insert in 1969:
“The Wilderness effort we are engaged in at the time is, in one respect, a pitifully futile struggle. Earth’s total atmosphere is human-changed beyond redemption, Earth’s waters would not be recognizable to the Pilgrims. Earth’s creatures will never again know what it is to be truly “wild.” The sonic thunder of man’s aircraft will increasingly descend in destructive shock waves upon any “wilderness area” no matter how remote or how large. No, there is no wilderness, and throughout the future of humanity, there will be no wilderness. We are attempting to save the battered remnants of the original work of a Creator. To engage in this effort is the last hope of religious people.
“The child seen here and there in “The Wilderness Question” would have loved Wilderness. There is tragedy in that knowledge. Hopefully we will leave him a reasonable facsimile of Wilderness. In the last, tattered works of Creation this child might find the source of strength necessary to love America and the works of man. If we care enough to act.”
*Nowhere in the several-page insert are political parties mentioned, most likely because people were less inclined to identify themselves according to political party, but also because environmental preservation was not at all partisan at the time. I mention their affiliations here to further demonstrate the way the discussion transcended party politics.
Speaking of the Weminuche: It looks like wolves may have made their way into the wilderness area. Colorado Parks and Wildlife’s most recent Collared Gray Wolf Activity map shows that the wolves have been detected in the San Juan, Rio Grande, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison River watersheds in the southwestern part of the state. Since the minimum mapping unit is the watershed, it’s not clear that the wolves have for sure ventured into the Weminuche. But it is certain that they have been recorded in the San Juan Mountains. It seems only a matter of time before they cross into New Mexico and maybe even Utah.
When Trump was elected for the second time, I figured there was no way he could make public lands grazing any less restrictive. After all, presidential administrations of all political persuasions have famously — or infamously — done very little to restrict grazing or to get it to pay for itself (the BLM’s grazing fee has remained at $1.35 per AUM, the mandated minimum) for decades. But, alas, the U.S. Agriculture Department recently announced its plan to “Fortify the American Beef Industry: Strengthening Ranches, Rebuilding Capacity, and Lowering Costs for Consumers.”
The plan, as you may imagine, looks to expand public lands grazing, among other things. And it was released at about the same time as Trump encouraged folks to eat Argentinian beef, since he seems to have developed a sort of crush on Argentina President Javier Milei.
I’ll get into the details of the USDA plan and offer some thoughts on it in the next dispatch. In the meantime, you can dive into my deep dive on public lands grazing here, though you have to be a paid subscriber (or sign up for a free trial) to get past the paywall.
Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Randi Pierce and Clayton Chaney). Here’s an excerpt:
October 30, 2025
Assessments of the damages caused by and the impacts of the historic floods on Oct. 11 and Oct. 14 continue, with estimates of public infrastructure damage now nearing the $26 million mark, up from a preliminary estimate of about $13 million. Pagosa Country experienced two historic floods in four days thanks to moisture from the remnants of a pair of tropical storms, Priscilla and Raymond. The flooding for the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs peaked at 8,270 cubic feet per second (cfs) and 12.66 feet at 6 p.m. on Oct. 11 and again at 8,560 cfs and 12.82 feet at 5:15 a.m. on Oct. 14, putting the two events as the fourth and third highest on record, behind floods in October 1911 and June 1927. Other area river levels were also significantly impacted, including the Piedra and Blanco rivers. During a work session held by the Archuleta County Board of County Commissioners on Tuesday, Oct. 28, Commissioner Veronica Medina provided an update on the damage assessments being conducted throughout the county and the potential total cost of damage.
Assessments and discussions have followed the historic floods that took place on Oct. 11 and 14, with several governmental entities continuing to work to determine the extent of the damage caused by the floods and their effects on the area. Pagosa Country experienced two historic floods in four days thanks to moisture from the remnants of a pair of tropical storms, Priscilla and Raymond. The flooding for the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs peaked at 8,270 cubic feet per second (cfs) and 12.66 feet at 6 p.m. on Oct. 11 and again at 8,560 cfs and 12.82 feet at 5:15 a.m. on Oct. 14, putting the two events as the fourth and third highest on record, behind floods in October 1911 and June 1927. Other area river levels were also significantly impacted, including the Piedra and Blanco rivers.
Area river levels have continued to decline since Oct. 14, with the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs running at 537 cfs and 5.52 feet as of noon on Wednesday, Oct. 22. That compares to a median of 88.00 cfs for the same date and a mean of 143.67 cfs. The increased moisture has also led to a significant increase in the level of Navajo Lake Reservoir. On Oct. 9, Navajo was at 6,020.44 feet elevation. By Oct. 21, that had increased by 12.10 feet to 6,032.54, according to the Lake Navajo Water Database. It remains 52.46 feet below full pool, or 6,085 feet elevation. It remains down 8.51 feet from a year prior. The database shows that total inflows for water year 2026, which began on Oct. 1, are at 421.49 percent of the average, and the rivers feeding Navajo are running at 147.04 percent of average.
Colorado Drought Monitor map October 21, 2025.
The storms also helped area drought. As of Oct. 14, the last update available by the U.S. Drought Monitor, 65.53 percent of the county was abnormally dry or above, with 3.71 percent of the county falling into moderate drought. A week, prior, 100 percent of the county was in moderate drought or above, with 30.18 percent being in severe drought or above, with 0.31 percent of that being in extreme drought…
On Oct. 21, Town Manager David Harris updated the Pagosa Springs Town Council on the damages to town infrastructure caused by the recent flooding along the San Juan River, with an early “thumbnail sketch” assessment showing around $9 million worth of damages. The major costs are associated with debris removal, riverbank stabilization, inflow and infiltration of unwanted water into the sewer system, 10th Street culvert replacement, sewer line replacement on the 1st Street bridge after the line was damaged by debris, and damages to a river restoration project that the town invested in some years ago, he explained…[Riley Frazee] noted total damages in the county based off of initial assessments is around $13 million. Of that $13 million, about $8.125 million is from the Town of Pagosa Springs and about $4 million is from damage to public roadways in Archuleta County. Archuleta County Sheriff Mike Le Roux noted that there are still about 200 miles of secondary roadways to be assessed. During the Oct. 18 tour with Bennet, Le Roux noted about 30 miles of primary county roads require “total reconstruction” and about 60 miles require significant patching and repair. Frazee also mentioned that the San Juan River Village Metro District sustained sewer system and roadway damage of about $2 million, which also qualify as infrastructure.
Purpose of the report: This rapid assessment, produced by the Western Water Assessment (WWA), serves as a scientific resource for understanding drivers and impacts of the flooding events that occurred from October 10th -14th, 2025 in southwest Colorado. The report is designed to support local resilience building efforts and hazard planning for communities in the region. It provides the longterm and recent historical context for the flooding, hydrologic characteristics of the flood event, and an assessment of the local probability of an event of this magnitude.
Key Findings:
• The October 10th-14th, 2025 floods were the 3rd largest on record for Pagosa Springs, CO, with river levels reaching a maximum gauge height of 12.82 feet and peak flow rates of 8,570 cubic feet per second
• A total of 12.5 inches of precipitation fell at a high-elevation observation site in the watershed over 5 days, saturating the watershed and driving the river to reach Major Flood stage twice in that period
• Flood frequency analysis based on historical observations of runoff in Pagosa Springs suggests this flood has a return period of 25 to 40 years, meaning that there is a 2.5-4% likelihood of a flood of similar magnitude occurring in any given year.
• Early reports following the flooding suggest that hundreds of residents and households were evacuated in Pagosa Springs and surrounding rural communities and many structures were damaged or destroyed by the floods including homes, bridges, and roadways.
• Nearly two decades of exposure to drought conditions, increasing wildfire activity, and now the recent flooding collectively highlight the geographically unique and increasingly frequent natural hazard risks that rural mountain communities face in southwest Colorado.
Supporting future resilience: Understanding the drivers, characteristics, and likelihood of extreme events like the floods of October 2025 is crucial for effective resilience planning. Scientific analysis that is tailored to local communities, like this assessment for Pagosa Springs and Vallecito, provides specific, actionable information that planners and residents can use to understand their unique exposure to hazards. The Western Water Assessment (WWA) is committed to providing usable science to support hazard planning and response in communities across Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming.
For further information on how WWA can support your community, please reach out to our team at wwa@colorado.edu.
The October rains that changed this water year in the San Luis Valley came at a particularly critical time.
In September the closely-watched unconfined aquifer hit its lowest level ever recorded since monitoring of the troubled aquifer began in January 2002, according to the Davis Engineering report given at Tuesday’s quarterly meeting of the Rio Grande Water Conservation District.
Knowing that, now imagine the conversations that would be happening in the Valley’s farming and ranching community had there been diminished or no October rains. The year was shaping up to be among the worst for flows on the Upper Rio Grande and readings on the unconfined aquifer reinforced it.
Then October delivered heavy rains across the southwest, which resulted in historic fall seasonal flows on the San Juan and into the Rio Grande and Conejos River systems. The Rio Grande grew by 80,000 acre-feet and the Conejos River by 20,000 acre-feet as a result of the rains, said Craig Cotten, division engineer for the Colorado Division of Water Resources.
Colorado is now estimating a total annual flow of 470,000 acre-feet on the Upper Rio Grande, up from its earlier estimates for the year at 390,000 acre-feet. Still, the irrigation year on the Rio Grande will likely end on Nov. 1 as scheduled, said Cotten.
“That’s a big amount of water in just a short amount of time,” he said in noting the latest accounting for Rio Grande Compact purposes.
2026 budget hearing set
The Rio Grande Water Conservation District set a 2026 budget work session for Nov. 24; then a public hearing to adopt next year’s budget on Dec. 11. The water conservation agency is proposing a year-over-year increase to its mill levy. It is proposing a 1.75 mill levy property tax, up from 1.6 mills in 2025.
Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. Map credit: By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, drainage basin from GTOPO [1], U.S. stream from the National Atlas [2], all other features from Vector Map., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11218868
