Hydropower at risk as #ColoradoRiver outlook grows more dire — AZCentral.com #COriver #aridification

A high desert thunderstorm lights up the sky behind Glen Canyon Dam — Photo USBR

Click the link to read the article on the AZCentral website (Debra Utacia Krol). Here’s an excerpt:

April 17, 2026

Key Points

  • The Colorado River system’s water storage has dropped to 36% of its capacity due to a warm winter and ongoing drought.
  • Water levels in Lake Powell are projected to fall below the minimum needed for hydropower generation by this fall.
  • Federal officials are considering moving water from other reservoirs and reducing downstream releases to prevent a shutdown at Glen Canyon Dam.

Within charts listing projections of water levels, inflow and outflow, and anticipated releases for 15 reservoirs in the Colorado River Basin, one message was clear: The river is in dire straits and conditions likely won’t get better anytime soon. The warmest winter on record, coupled with an ongoing drought, has produced dismal conditions for the West’s water lifeline, conditions reflected by the Bureau of Reclamation in its Aprilย 24-month report. The system’s storage has plunged to about 36% of its capacity, the agency said in a statement. More alarming in the near term is the threat to hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam. Water levels in Lake Powell would drop too low to operate the turbines by fall, according to the latest projections, unless the federal government steps in…The situation at Lake Powell raised red flags: The giant reservoir’s “minimum probable inflow,” a measure of winter runoff, is projected to total justย 2.78ย millionย acre-feet, or 29% of theย historicalย average, one of the lowest on record, the agency said. By September, projections show the reservoir could decline to below 3,490 feet above sea level, the minimum needed to power the turbines at Glen Canyon Dam that supply electric service to aboutย 5.8 million households and businesses in the region…

Reclamation said it would consider all tools that are available to avoid water levels below 3,500 feet, including a plan to move water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah and reduce downstream releases from Powell. Flaming Gorge would give up between 660,000 acre-feet up to 1 million acre-feet over the next year. Lake Powell will release about 1.48 million acre-feet less than planned. The move will lower water levels in Lake Mead and potentially reduce Hoover Dam’s hydropower generating capacity by as much as 40%, and would impact recreation throughout the Lower Basin…

Theย Arizona Department of Water Resourcesย said in its March drought report that most of the state’s snowpack is gone, melted during Arizona’s warmest March on record. The Arizona Drought Monitoring Technical Committee also published its latest three-month drought map, which showed most of the state listed as enduring exceptional drought conditions, the driest level.

Engineering students aim to improve household drinking water — Jennifer Dimas (#Colorado State University)

Undergraduate research students in Civil and Environmental Engineering collaborage with an employee at the Fort Collins Water Treatment Facility near the CSU Foothills Campus. The students are creating a piece of equipment to better evaluate water for treatment levels. Water samples at the treatment facility flow directly from the Horsetooth Reservoir.

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado State University website (Jennifer Dimas):

April 20, 2026

Editorโ€™s note: The FlocBot team will display its work during CSUโ€™s Engineering Days celebration, called E-Days. The event, held by the Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering, showcases undergraduate senior design projects. It will run 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Thursday, April 23, in the Lory Student Center ballroom and on the Student Center Plaza at CSU. Students from the CSU team are available for interviews during the  2026 E-Days event on April 23 at the Lory Student Center on campus.

The future of safe drinking water might be found in the engineering school at Colorado State University.

Here, a student team has invented a device that automates water sampling and data analysis for the chemical treatment used to produce safe drinking water. Not only have the engineering students developed the technology, but they also have founded a startup company to perfect and commercialize it. Their target market: the utilities that treat municipal water to ensure its safety and quality for household use.

The invention is called FlocBot โ€“ named for a process called flocculation. During this process, water treatment plants add coagulants to raw water, causing particles and microorganisms, or โ€œfloc,โ€ to clump for easier filtration.

Now, treatment plants perform flocculation and associated data collection manually. FlocBot builds upon existing technologies to automate the process, allowing operators to use their plantโ€™s computer-based infrastructure to receive real-time data; this, in turn, allows them to determine their waterโ€™s optimal coagulant dose.

FlocBot will allow plants to more accurately dose coagulating chemicals to optimize floc clumps for filtration. Too few chemicals can allow pollutants to get through filters into drinking water. Too many can also impact drinking water quality, while wasting expensive chemicals and wearing down pipes and filters.

โ€œOur goal is to allow water treatment plants and local governments to produce cleaner, more reliable drinking water while minimizing the environmental impact and saving taxpayer dollars,โ€ said Josh Kates, a CSU senior studying civil engineering. He is co-leader of the 14-member FlocBot team. All are students in CSUโ€™s Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering.

The student team visited more than 20 water treatment plants in the span of six months to understand the best way to engineer FlocBot. They have tested the device at the Fort Collins water treatment plant.

FlocBot is a senior design project for the students, who have worked on the project since the start of the academic year last fall. They will present their work alongside dozens of other projects during a campus event called Engineering Days, or E-Days, on April 23.

They have already won a business pitch competition called the I4E Startup Spotlight, sponsored by CSUโ€™s Institute for Entrepreneurship.

As the FlocBot students complete their senior year of engineering studies, they are also building their company to commercialize their technology.

โ€œStarting a business is always risky, but weโ€™re fully committed,โ€ Hugh McCurren, team co-leader, said. โ€œWe want to make a positive environmental impact in this industry. Based on conversations with numerous plants and possible customers, weโ€™re optimistic about FlocBotโ€™s potential.โ€

Aside from #Florida, nearly the entire contiguous U.S. has experienced earlier than average first plant blooms in 2026 — Zack Labe

Aside from Florida, nearly the entire contiguous U.S. has experienced earlier than average first plant blooms in 2026. Earlier springs can cause longer allergy seasons, accelerate wildfire risk, increase pests/mosquitoes, and lead to less reliable snow-fed water.Map: http://www.usanpn.org/data/maps/sp…

Zack Labe (@zacklabe.com) 2026-04-19T19:57:09.003Z

The state of #solar: Despite partisan rhetoric, the industry is still booming — Rebecca Egan McCarthyย &ย ย Kate Yoder (Grist.org)

May 6, 2023 – Volunteers with the National Renewable Energy Laboratoryโ€™s (NRELโ€™s) ESCAPES (Education, Stewardship, and Community Action for Promoting Environmental Sustainability) program lend a hand to Jackโ€™s Solar Garden in Longmont, Colo. Bethany Speer (left) goes back for more while Nancy Trejo distributes her wheelbarrow load to the agrivoltaic plots. (Photo by Bryan Bechtold / NREL)

Click the link to read the article on the Grist website (Rebecca Egan McCarthyย &ย ย Kate Yoder):

April 20, 2026

Solar power is cheap, fast, and in demand as data centers consume more and more electricity.

The future looked dire for renewable energy in the United States last spring. Republicans in Congress started gutting the Inflation Reduction Act, forcing its generous tax credits for wind and solar into an early retirement. The Interior Department then rolled out a series of byzantine regulations aimed at restricting clean energy on federal land. Some feared those regulations would curb wind and solar development on private land, too.

Although these restrictions do seem to have hindered the wind industry, there are some signs that its fortunes are changing. But a year later, solar continues to boom. MAGA influencers are promoting it, thereโ€™s hope for legislation that would speed up approvals for new projects, and the industry has continued to expand over the last year as energy requirements from data centers demand fast, cheap power. The Trump administration has even signed off on some big solar projects: In February, the administration announced that it would allow several solar projects that had been blocked by the new Interior regulations to move forward. 

โ€œI feel like there has been so much written thatโ€™s like, โ€˜The Trump administration is delaying this stuff. Itโ€™s holding it all up in red tape. Nothingโ€™s getting built,โ€™โ€ said Hannah Hess, director of the Rhodium Groupโ€™s Clean Investment Monitor team. โ€œWhen we look at the data, thatโ€™s not true.โ€ Combined, solar and battery storage (which banks excess energy for use when the sunโ€™s not shining) accounted for 79 percent of power generation brought online in 2025 and are expected to continue to grow by 49 percent before the Inflation Reduction Act tax credits expire at the end of 2027. 

Support for solar among rank-and-file-conservatives has fallen in recent years, caught up in partisan culture wars, but it could gain more traction in the party if itโ€™s paired with affordability concerns. Some 69 percent of Republicans say they are supportive of solar, provided it lowered electricity costs, according to a recent poll from the research organizations GoodPower and NORC at the University of Chicago. The Solar Energy Industries Association, the industryโ€™s primary lobbying group, has emphasized that its industry aligns with President Donald Trumpโ€™s โ€œenergy dominanceโ€ agendaand lowers energy costs for families and businesses. โ€œConservative voters are drawing a clear distinction between rhetoric and practical solutions that lower costs,โ€ read a blog post from the association in February.

Even prominent conservative figures seem to be softening toward solar. Katie Miller, a former Trump administration official and the wife of Stephen Miller, the White Houseโ€™s deputy chief of staff for policy, has gone so far as to herald solar as the โ€œenergy of the future.โ€ In February, she posted to X: โ€œGiant fusion reactor up there in the sky โ€” we must rapidly expand solar to compete with China.โ€ That same month, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who had been a vocal critic of solar power, started saying it could be beneficial. โ€œIs there a commercial role for solar power that can add to the grid affordable, reliable energy?โ€ he said. โ€œCertainly there is.โ€ 

Data center developers have begun looking to solar as a complement to oil and gas, rather than a competitor. The incoming demand โ€œfeels crazy,โ€ said Jim DesJardins, executive director of the Renewable Energy Industries Association of New Mexico. โ€œItโ€™s scary, almost. Five years ago, we were talking about an increase in load from EVs and building electrification โ€” weโ€™re not talking about that anymore. Itโ€™s all data centers and how are you going to power them.โ€ This year marked the first time, said DesJardins, that the New Mexico Oil and Gas Association reached out to sponsor the renewable energy associationโ€™s annual conference.

Solar is, by far, the cheapest and fastest way to bring energy online, especially asย the shortage of gas turbinesย โ€” internal combustion engines that convert fuel into a steady, reliable energy โ€” in the U.S. creates yearslong delays to build new power plants that run on natural gas. [ed. emphasis mine] The technology is crucial for data centers that need to run 24 hours a day, seven days a week. โ€œThe backlog alone [for turbines] is five to nine years,โ€ said Mike Hall, CEO of Anza Renewables, an energy intelligence and procurement platform based in California. โ€œThen youโ€™ve got to permit it. Then youโ€™ve got to be near a gas pipeline for fuel, and then youโ€™ve got the climate and the carbon issues.โ€ Aย recent study from the analytics company Sightline Climateย found that half of data center deals were expected to be delayed due to power constraints and local opposition, and developers are beginning to realize that waiting in line for a gas turbine could spell doom for their operation.ย 

There are still some obstacles ahead for solar power, however. โ€œWeโ€™ve definitely seen examples from our developer customers where the Department of Interior rules are creating challenges for their projects on federal land, but we havenโ€™t seen that itโ€™s really slowed down development on private land,โ€ said Hall. โ€œThe bottlenecks are typically still local permitting and interconnection with utilities โ€” those are still major challenges, and we havenโ€™t seen a lot of improvement in either area yet.โ€

Shortly before Congress adjourned for its winter recess in December, the House passed the Standardizing Permitting and Expediting Economic Development Act, also known as the SPEED ACT, a bipartisan bill that would streamline the permitting process for energy, infrastructure, and transportation projects by overhauling the National Environmental Policy Act, or NEPA. Signed by President Nixon in 1970, NEPA requires federal agencies to consider how proposed infrastructure projects or drilling permits would affect the environment before approving them. Permitting reform is the rare, bipartisan issue that has sparked real enthusiasm on both sides of the aisle. 

After a scuffle over the Trump administrationโ€™s decisions to shut down offshore wind projects, which judges ruled invalid, Democratic senators Martin Heinrich and Sheldon Whitehouse are coming back to the negotiating table to hammer out a deal. โ€œRight now, weโ€™re leaving electrons on the table thanks to Trumpโ€™s deliberate attacks on clean energy โ€” forcing Americans to pay higher electricity bills,โ€ Heinrichโ€™s office told Grist. โ€œTo lower costs, this administration needs to stop stalling and slow walking clean energy projects and take the politics out of permitting reform.โ€

The war in Iran, which has caused oil prices to skyrocket, may serve to boost interest in solar power even more โ€” especially as a way to combat rising electricity costs and promote energy independence. โ€œEnergy poverty has always been a problem in the U.S., and itโ€™s gotten significantly worse in recent years,โ€ said Brad Townsend, vice president of policy and outreach at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, an environmental policy nonprofit. He pointed to a study from the nonprofit RMI, formerly the Rocky Mountain Institute, that found 1 in 3 households were struggling to pay their utility bills. โ€œI think folks in the administration are increasingly becoming aware of the fact that we canโ€™t turn away renewable energy.โ€ 

In terms of the geopolitical reasons to support solar, โ€œno one has fought a war over the sun,โ€ DesJardins told Grist. โ€œNot yet, anyways.โ€ 

Indian Peaks Band of the Paiute Indian Tribe of #Utah Files to Protect Tribal Water Rights — Native American Rights Fund

Click the link to read the article on the Native American Rights Fund website:

April 17, 2026

On April 1, 2026, the Indian Peaks Band of the Paiute Indian Tribe of Utah, represented by the Native American Rights Fund, filed a Notice of Appeal and Petition for Stay with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Office of Hearings and Appeals, Interior Board of Land Appeals (IBLA), challenging the Bureau of Land Managementโ€™s March 2, 2026, approval of the Pine Valley Water Supply Project.

The filing seeks review of BLMโ€™s decision authorizing a largeโ€‘scale groundwater extraction and pipeline project in southern Utah and asks the IBLA to stay the project approvals while the appeal is pending. The Band argues that the decision violates federal law, including the National Environmental Policy Act, and unlawfully threatens the Bandโ€™s federally reserved water rights and culturally significant resources.

The Bandโ€™s former Reservation, which is on the ancestral lands of the Band, is located just a few miles west of the Pine Valley Water Supply Projectโ€™s proposed wellfield. The amount of water that the Cedar Valley Water Conservancy seeks to extract from the Pine Valley exceeds the amount of water available and will harm the Bandโ€™s water resources.

โ€œThese water resources are fundamental to our Bandโ€™s history, culture, and future,โ€said Chairwoman Tamra Borchardt-Slayton of the Indian Peaks Band of the Paiute Indian Tribe of Utah. โ€œFederal law is clear that the Bandโ€™s water rights must be protected, and we are asking the Interior Department to do just that.โ€

The Indian Peaks Band holds federally reserved water rights associated with its former reservation lands under longstanding federal law. Those rights, which predate many other uses of water in the region, remain protected today and cannot be impaired by federal agency action. The appeal asserts that BLM failed to adequately consider these rights or uphold its federal trust responsibility to Tribal Nations before approving the project.

โ€œFederal agencies have both a legal and moral obligation to protect Tribal water rights,โ€ said NARF Staff Attorney Tom Murphy. โ€œThis appeal seeks to ensure that those obligations are honored for the Bandโ€™s water rights.โ€

The appeal and petition for stay were filed pursuant to 43 C.F.R. Part 4, which governs administrative appeals of BLM decisions. If granted, the stay would preserve the status quo and prevent construction or further project commitments while IBLA considers the merits of the appeal.

#Snowpack news April 20, 2026

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map April 19, 2026.
Colorado SNOTEL basin-filled map April 19, 2026.

Local leaders gear up for unprecedented wildfire season — The #Aspen Daily News

Click the link to read the article on The Aspen Daily News website (Lucy Peterson). Here’s an excerpt:

April 17, 2026

Roaring Fork Valley governments and fire and law enforcement agencies are gearing up for what is anticipated to be a much warmer and drier summer than normal. The Roaring Fork Valley is experiencing a โ€œrecord breaking yearโ€ for drought, snowfall and snowpack, Erin Walter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said during a press briefing Thursday with multiple local emergency management and fire leaders. The agencies are emphasizing both individual preparedness and cross-agency preparedness in hopes of mitigating wildfires or minimizing the damage of wildfires if they occur this summer.

โ€œWildfires are inevitable,โ€ said Ali Hammond, director of wildfire resilience for Aspen Fire. โ€œWildfire disasters are preventable.”

Local leaders are encouraging individuals to make their own wildfire preparedness plans, like building a go-bag and establishing an evacuation plan. Theyโ€™re also urging homeowners to harden their homes and ensure the first 5 feet around their homes is cleared of any vulnerable vegetation…Agencies across the valley are changing evacuation frameworks to โ€œready, set, go,โ€ which they will use when notifying residents about wildfire risk in their area. Theyโ€™re also trying to improve their messaging on wildfire risks, like red flag warnings and what different stages of a fire ban mean. Local officials are working to prevent wildfires from a number of angles. But it can be difficult under unprecedented circumstances.ย  The city of Aspen is currently under stage two drought restrictions. Erin Loughlin-Molliconi, the city of Aspenโ€™s utilities director, said the city is considering more stringent measures because of the persistent, dry conditions.

Map of the Roaring Fork River drainage basin in western Colorado, USA. Made using USGS data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=69290878

U.S. Government Orders Emergency Actions to Protect #GlenCanyonDam: Extraordinary moves in the struggling #ColoradoRiver basin could prompt historic lawsuits — Brett Walton (circleofblue.org) #COriver #aridification

Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Powell. Photo credit: Brett Walton/Circle of Blue

Click the link to read the article on the Circle of Blue website (Brett Walton):

April 19, 2026

Difficult decisions for the Colorado River are starting to be made.

In what will be a defining year for the struggling watershed, the federal agency that manages the basinโ€™s dams took unprecedented actions on Friday to store more water in Lake Powell in order to preserve hydropower generation and protect water-delivery infrastructure at Glen Canyon Dam that the agency says is at risk of damage due to low reservoir levels.

The April 17 announcement from the Bureau of Reclamation will also set in motion events that could result in first-ever lawsuits from Arizona, California, or Nevada against their upstream neighbors over water supply from the shrinking Colorado River.

The Central Arizona Project, which delivers Colorado River water to Phoenix and Tucson, called Reclamationโ€™s actions โ€œa band-aidโ€ and urged the agency to release even more water from upstream reservoirs into Powell. CAP, because it has lowest water-rights priority in the lower basin, is the most vulnerable to proposed water cuts that would attempt to align water supply with demand.

โ€œThere is no time to delay,โ€ Patrick Dent, CAPโ€™s assistant general manager for water policy, told Circle of Blue two days before the announcement.

The Bureau of Reclamation will make two moves to support Lake Powell, the huge reservoir formed by Glen Canyon Dam that is less than 25 percent full and shrinking.

Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico are asking the federal government to pause some releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, which straddles the border between Wyoming and Utah. The reservoir, pictured here in 2021, is the third-largest in the Colorado River system.

Reclamationโ€™s first move is to release more water from Flaming Gorge, an upstream reservoir that is 82 percent full. With the consent of the four upper basin states, between 660,000 acre-feet and 1 million acre-feet will flow from Flaming Gorge into Powell over the next 12 months.

Reclamation previously used upstream reservoirs to prop up Powell in 2022-23, when some 463,000 acre-feet were released. These extra releases are supposed to be recovered if water supply conditions turn favorable. If more dry years are ahead, then the upstream releases will have been a one-shot intervention.

The agencyโ€™s second move is to hold back more water in Powell. Using authority granted in a 2024 decision, the agency will cut Powellโ€™s water releases from 7.48 million acre-feet to 6 million acre-feet. This is the first time that Reclamation has invoked its Section 6(E) authority.

Water supply conditions in the basin worsened each month this year as hot, dry weather drained a meager snowpack that is on a downward trend due to manmade climate change. A heat wave in late March was the most extreme on record in the Southwest for that time of year. Inflows into Lake Powell this year are projected to be the lowest ever measured, breaking a record set in 2002.

The water elevation at Powell currently sits at 3,526 feet. Reclamation has stated that it will do what it can to prevent the reservoir from dropping below 3,500 feet. Hydropower generation stops at 3,490 feet. Without Reclamationโ€™s announced interventions, that level is expected to be breached by August.

With the two interventions, Powell is projected, with average weather conditions, to remain above 3,500 feet by April 2027, but just barely. If the next 12 months continue to be hot and dry, more emergency actions might be necessary.

The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson

If Powell were to drop below 3,490 feet, water would have to be released through a smaller set of pipes called the river outlet works. Reclamation has said that using these pipes for extended periods of time is untested and risks damaging them.

Reducing outflows from Powell will have two effects. One is that Lake Mead, located downstream, will shrink more quickly, as will its hydropower output. Boating access will be more difficult.

The other consequence is the specter of litigation. The 1922 Colorado River Compact requires the four upper basin states โ€“ Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming โ€“ to deliver 75 million acre-feet over 10 years. Add in the upper basinโ€™s share of the water required for Mexico and the figure rises to roughly 82.5 million.

Cutting Powell outflows this year to 6 million acre-feet will likely push the 10-year total below the required threshold.

Reclamation is not focusing on the legal implications, says James Eklund, a partner at Taft Law.

โ€œReclamation is essentially telling the basin states, โ€˜We are going to protect our billions of dollarsโ€™ worth of infrastructure, including Glen Canyon Dam, and if you believe that violates your compact entitlement, you know where the courthouse isโ€™,โ€ Eklund, a former Colorado River commissioner for Colorado, wrote to Circle of Blue.

States in both upper and lower basins have already set aside money for potential litigation or are considering it.

Still, a legal right does not necessarily mean the water is available, Eklund cautions. โ€œNo court can conjure acre-feet that arenโ€™t in the reservoir.โ€

Critics question fedsโ€™ plans for future of #ColoradoRiver: In years of severe #drought, โ€˜the system is failingโ€™, #ClimateChange is sapping river flows as #LakePowell, #LakeMead water levels continue to fall — The #Denver Post #COriver #aridification

Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall

Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (Elise Schmelzer). Here’s an excerpt:

April 19. 2026

The multitude of water managers tasked with overseeingย the drying Colorado River systemstand at a dire crossroads. As a years long stalemate in negotiations persists between the seven states that share the river, itโ€™s become increasingly likely that the federal government will impose its own long-term plan, choosing from a range of proposals officials have outlined in recent months. But experts and water managers across the 250,000-square-mile Colorado River basin are raising the alarm about the five plans, questioning if any of them hold up under the new climate reality. They say the federal plans wonโ€™t keep the system from crashing in critically dry years โ€” which are becoming more frequent โ€” and could wreak chaos on the pivotal lifeline for 40 million people in the American Southwest.

โ€œIn every one of those alternatives, under what they call critically dry hydrology, the system is failing,โ€ said Andy Mueller, the general manager of the Colorado River District, a taxpayer-funded agency based in Glenwood Springs that works to protect Western Slope water. โ€œAnd critically dry hydrology is what we have continued to see consistently in the basin in the last 25 years and what we should expect going forward.โ€

[…]

In extremely dry years, the longer-term plans under consideration by Reclamation would allow the water levels of the systemโ€™s two main reservoirs to repeatedly fall below minimum power pool. Federal officials then would be forced to make recurring emergency cuts to the water supplies of the three states downstream of the reservoirs, creating uncertainty for millions of people and a massive agricultural industry…Letters from a number of Colorado entities โ€” including theย Northwest Colorado Council of Governments,ย irrigation districts, the Western Slopeโ€™sย Club 20ย and county commissions from a vast swath of the state โ€” urged federal officials to present at least one plan that would hold up in extremely dry years.

โ€œSound science dictates that Colorado River management must evolve to handle a permanently drier future,โ€ Tina Bergonzini, the general manager of the Grand Valley Water Users Association,ย wrote in her comments to the bureau. โ€œThe current federal preference for predictability is an atmospheric impossibility given that studies indicate rising temperatures have already slashed river flows by a fifth.โ€

[…]

The conflict on the Colorado is likely one of the worldโ€™s first major water policy overhauls to grapple with the reality of climate change, saidย Brad Udall, a senior water and climate research scholar at Colorado State Universityโ€™sย Colorado Water Center. In the past, Colorado River managers made operational tweaks and short-term deals to address drought. This time, itโ€™s different.

โ€œWeโ€™re not looking at an incremental step here,โ€ Udall said. โ€œWeโ€™re looking at a complete redo of how we operate this resource that affects 40 million people.โ€

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

#Arizona’s Growth Machine keeps churning even as existing communities dry up: Thinking about #GrandCanyon river flows — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org) #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Rendering of the Halo Vista development and TSMCโ€™s campus. Source: discoverhalovista.com

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

April 17, 2026

๐Ÿฅต Aridification Watch ๐Ÿซ

Sometimes it feels like there are two parallel Southwestern United States out there.

One is naturally arid, is getting hotter and hotter by the year and is gripped by the most severe drought of the last millennium or more. Its water lifeline, the Colorado River system, is on the brink of collapse, and communities and farmers from Wyoming to Calexico are facing painful mandatory water cutbacks this summer.

And then thereโ€™s the other one, a sort of fantasy world, or maybe just an oblivious one, in which new water diversion projects like the Lake Powell Pipeline remain on the table, state leaders prepare to go to legal war to protect their statesโ€™ profligate water consumption, and a developer is breaking ground on a 2,300-acre โ€œcity within a cityโ€ called Halo Vista in North Phoenix.

Halo Vistaโ€™s developers are billing it as a companion development to TSMCโ€™s $165 billion semiconductor fabrication facility complex. It will wrap around the industrial campus (thus the โ€œhaloโ€ in the name), and plans call for some 30 million square feet of industrial, retail, office, research, and healthcare spaces along with 9,000 or more residential units.

โ€œYou have to think about all the people at full build-out whoโ€™ll work in this area โ€” about 60 to 80,000 people,โ€ Greater Phoenix Economic Council President Christine Mackay told AZFamily. โ€œTheyโ€™ll work in the Halo Vista science and technology park. They need restaurants, hotels, places to live โ€” and places to shop for what they need.โ€

Historically, Arizonaโ€™s economy was said to run on five Cs: copper, cotton, citrus, cattle, and climate. Copper is still going fairly strong, most of the citrus groves have given way to housing developments, alfalfa has surpassed cotton, and the beef-cattle have been replaced by dairy factories. Now another C โ€” computer chips โ€” is being added to the mix, as the Phoenix-area experiences a semiconductor manufacturing boom and a coinciding data-center buildup.

The tech industryโ€™s expansion is adding economic diversity, making the city somewhat less vulnerable to 2008-like financial breakdowns. But as Halo Vista demonstrates, it is also feeding Phoenixโ€™s dominant economic force, the Growth Machine. And both the Growth Machine and the data center/semiconductor boom need water, and quite a lot of it. This, in turn, increases Phoenixโ€™s exposure to future water shortages, which seem more and more likely with each passing day.

According to TSMCโ€™s draft environmental assessment, the first phase of its Phoenix fabrication plants will initially use about 4.75 million gallons of water per day, or 5,320 acre-feet per year, which would jump to about 19,400 acre-feet yearly if and when all three phases are built out. But the company says it will eventually install a recycling system that will bring that number down considerably. The 9,000 residential units in Halo Vista would use about 2,800 acre-feet per year (based on Phoenixโ€™s current per-capita water consumption multiplied by a rough estimate of 20,000 people occupying those residences). Halo Vistaโ€™s other industrial and commercial properties will consume an unknown additional amount of water.

So letโ€™s say the whole development, including the โ€œfabs,โ€ will use about 25,000 acre-feet per year โ€” less if the water efficiencies are realized, more if Halo Vistaโ€™s tech district includes data centers or other water-intensive industries.

Thatโ€™s a lot of water, or a drop in the bucket, depending on how you look at it.

On the one hand it is equal to about one-fourth of Nevadaโ€™s total consumptive use from the Colorado River. Yes, the city of sin and excess only uses about four times more water than the TSMC/Halo Vista โ€œcityโ€ will use.

On the other, itโ€™s far less than the alfalfa farms in Maricopa County โ€” in which Halo Vista is located โ€” use for irrigation each year, which totals something like 500,000 acre-feet.1 And yet, Halo Vista/TSMC, once all built out in 20 years or so, will have a significantly larger economic output than a bunch of hay fields (which isnโ€™t the only measure of value or even the most important one, and yet, well, water does flow uphill to money).

So yes, it is possible to sidestep water concerns by pulling out the โ€œwhat about alfalfaโ€ comparison. But itโ€™s also not all that productive.

Halo Vista, which is being built on a plot of uncultivated state land in the desert, is not displacing an alfalfa farmโ€™s water use. Rather, it represents a new water use piled on top of existing consumption. The water will come out of Phoenixโ€™s municipal system, and therefore officially has an โ€œassured and adequateโ€ 100-year water supply, which is necessary in Arizona for this sort of development.

Yet thereโ€™s nothing assured about Arizonaโ€™s water future. Phoenixโ€™s water comes primarily from high priority rights on the Salt and Verde Rivers, and from the Colorado River via the Central Arizona Project. But those rights will hardly matter if the rivers dry up: This yearโ€™s Salt River Basin meagre snowpack had vanished by March 1, spring runoff peaked weeks ago, and flows are rapidly falling. Meanwhile, the Central Arizona Project has relatively low priority rights, meaning it will be the first to take cuts as the river shrinks.

In other words, aridification and the Colorado River crisis pose an existential threat to Phoenixโ€™s tech boom and, well, Phoenix, itself, which is one of the reasons Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is preparing for a bitter legal fight with the feds and the Upper Basin states over the Colorado River.

The good news for the developers and the semiconductor makers is that agriculture continues to use a lot of water in Arizona. And where there is large consumptive use, there is also more room for increased efficiencies and, if it comes to it, โ€œbuying and dryingโ€ the farms for their water โ€” which has its own negative consequences. The bad news is that the shortages to come may very well exceed the amount that could be wrung out of the existing farms.

Halo Vista, which is on a 20-year buildout schedule, is far from the only major water- and energy-guzzling development on slate for the increasingly arid West. And maybe itโ€™s not realistic to expect all such development to come to a screeching halt simply because the water may run out sometime in the future. After all, climate change could cause more precipitation; maybe in 20 years weโ€™ll be worrying more about flooding than desiccation.

But you would think that planners and policymakers and the developers would at least act in line with our current reality, where resources, especially water, are limited. Halo Vista-esque projects should be required not just to certify an โ€œassuredโ€ 100-year supply, but they also should have to offset new consumption with cuts somewhere else, whether itโ€™s paying for farmers to install drip irrigation or funding treated wastewater recycling projects.

Continuing to consume water at current rates is one thing. Adding new uses on top of our current overconsumption is quite another.

***

And so it begins. It looks like residents of the small Arizona community of Kearney may lose their water altogether later this summer, making developments like Halo Vista look even more surreal.

The town sent this emergency memo out to residents in April:

Kearney sits in Arizonaโ€™s โ€œCopper Triangleโ€ along the banks of Gila River and in the proverbial shadow of the Hayden copper smelter smokestack. The town was established by the Kennecott Mining Company in 1958 to house residents displaced from Ray, Sonora, and Barcelona as the mineโ€™s gaping Ray mine pit gobbled up the communities. Resolution Copperโ€™s proposed Oak Flat mine is also nearby, as is Faradayโ€™s proposed Copper Creek project.

Kearney has a maximum allotment of 610 acre-feet of water from the Gila River. This year, however, extreme drought conditions have brought the allotment down to just .76 acre-feet, forcing the town to impose severe restrictions on use to try to make it last until the monsoon arrives.

As for all the mines surrounding Kearney? Iโ€™m guessing their dealing with their own water issues, but Iโ€™d also wager that theyโ€™re allowed a heck of a lot more than three-fourths of an acre-foot.


The water footprint of Arizona’s copper mines — Jonathan P. Thompson


Condors perched on steel girders some 450 feet above the Colorado River. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

๐ŸŸย Colorado River Chroniclesย ๐Ÿ’ง

In the comment section on the last Land Desk dispatch, reader wkarls reported on the Colorado Riverโ€™s flows during a recent raft trip on the Grand Canyon.ย It got me to thinking about how low those flows might go and what that could mean.

Iโ€™ve only boated down the Grand Canyon once, back in October and November of 1995 with a group of slightly crazy Salida rafting folks. It was a beautiful, terrifying, sublime โ€” if somewhat debauched โ€” experience. During the trip, releases from Glen Canyon Dam โ€” which make up about 95% of the flow in the Grand Canyon โ€” fluctuated between 11,000 and 16,000 cubic feet per second, a number that was bolstered downstream after a good rainstorm moved through, turning the river that intimidating blood-and-chocolate-milk color. That seemed like plenty of water to me; it was certainly enough to generate waves big enough to toss our little rafts about like toys (did I mention it was scary as hell?).

Somewhat surprisingly, the releases were about the same in September of last year, bouncing between 10,000 and 16,000 cfs, which appears to have been an effort to get the annual flows past Lees Ferry up to about 7.5 million acre-feet to keep the Upper Basin in compliance with the Colorado River Compactโ€™s non-depletion obligation. Then, on Oct. 1, the beginning of the 2026 water year, releases plummeted. This spring theyโ€™ve been in that 7,000 to 9,000 cfs range that wkarls mentioned.

Thatโ€™s in line with the Bureau of Reclamationโ€™s plan to release just 6 million acre-feet from the dam this water year: 6 million acre-feet per year averages out to about 8,200 cfs. Thatโ€™s also right in line with the Grand Canyon Protection Actโ€™s operating criteria, which set a minimum allowable release during the day (between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m.) at 8,000 cfs, while the minimum nighttime release is 5,000 cfs.

So, given all of that, we can assume that the flows shouldnโ€™t drop much below current levels this summer. Of course, if conditions are worse than expected, then the reservoir could drop to 3,500 feet earlier than anticipated, which could force dam operators to further curtail releases to โ€œdefendโ€ minimum power pool. If so, then you might see nighttime releases drop as low as 5,000 cfs. If thatโ€™s not enough, then I suppose dam operators would have to go to a run-of-the-river scenario, where flows could plummet to 2,000 or 3,000 cfs, which would make rafting quite interesting.


๐Ÿ“ธย Parting Shotย ๐ŸŽž๏ธ

Colorado River at/around Lees Ferry in autumn 2024, when Glen Canyon Dam releases were around 8,000 cfs.
Colorado River at/around Lees Ferry in autumn 2024, when Glen Canyon Dam releases were around 8,000 cfs.
Colorado River at/around Lees Ferry in autumn 2024, when Glen Canyon Dam releases were around 8,000 cfs.

โ€˜Energy dominanceโ€™ agenda sidelines tribes: Changes to NEPA come at the expense of tribal consultation. The administration has changed or revoked rules and policies to prioritize extraction — Anna V. Smith (High Country News)

The Mexican Hat uranium tailings repository on the Navajo Nation holds contaminated waste from uranium mills in Utah and Arizona. The Navajo Nation has raised concerns about its proximity to the San Juan River, a source of drinking water. Russel Albert Daniels/High Country News

Click the link to read the article on the High Country News website (Anna V. Smith):

April 13, 2026

Last fall, construction on the Velvet-Wood uranium mine broke ground in the sandstone deposits of San Juan County, Utah. Itโ€™s the first mine that the federal government has permitted under a new expedited โ€œemergencyโ€ process that allows projects to go through the environmental review required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in just 14 days, a process that previously took months or even years. Tribal governments were given just seven days to offer feedback, and the standard public comment period was eliminated owing to the projectโ€™s โ€œemergencyโ€ status. In the past, both tribes and the public had at least 30 days give input.

The mine is located in an area already deeply scarred by uranium mining, where the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe has long opposed the White Mesa Uranium Mill, which abuts the community. During the weeklong tribal comment period, six nations shared their concerns with the Bureau of Land Management, citing the expedited process and possible water contamination from the mineโ€™s activities. No changes were made to the project, however.

Earlier this year, in addition to mandating expedited โ€œemergencyโ€ processes for NEPA reviews, the Trump administration finalized its proposed elimination of standards โ€” including public comment periods โ€” for how federal agencies carry out NEPA environmental reviews for large-scale projects on public lands. The changes came without consultation with tribal nations and despite their strong opposition. 

Water towers in White Mesa, Utah. The Ute Mountain Ute Tribe has long opposed the neighboring White Mesa Uranium Mill. Six tribal nations warned the Bureau of Land Management about possible water contamination from the new Velvet-Wood uranium mine, but no changes were made to the project. Russel Albert Daniels/High Country News

โ€œThe announce-and-defend method of developing federal Indian policy is an inappropriate, paternalistic, unjustified, and historically inefficient method of decision-making,โ€ the National Congress of American Indians and National Association of Tribal Historic Preservation Officers said in a joint letter. Eliminating previous standards โ€œignores federal trust and treaty responsibilities, impinges on roles and sovereignty of Tribal Nations, and flouts longstanding policy and practice by failing to consult with Tribal Nations.โ€ 

The federal government is legally required to consult with tribal nations on rules and policies that affect them, but so far the Trump administration has regularly bypassed consultation requirements or sped through them in order to accomplish its โ€œenergy dominanceโ€ agenda on tribal nationsโ€™ ancestral lands. Altogether, the changes represent a shift in the way that tribal nations โ€” and the public โ€” are able to have a say in how land in the Western U.S. is managed.

A map of the upcoming Thacker Pass mine in northern Nevada. The federal government has bought stakes in mining companies, including the company behind the Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada, which is opposed by some tribal nations and Indigenous communities. Image used courtesy of Lithium Americas

FROM THE START, agencies under Trump have changed or revoked rules and policies to prioritize extraction, citing the so-called energy โ€œemergency.โ€ The BLM and the Forest Service rescinded the Public Lands Rule and the Roadless Rule without tribal consultation, even though both decisions have major implications for tribesโ€™ ability to protect natural and cultural resources on public land. Meanwhile, the administration is seeking to โ€œstreamlineโ€ Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act, one of the most useful tools tribal nations have for ensuring government consultation. Changes are also proposed for Section 401 of the Clean Water Act, which enables tribes to review the impacts of extractive projects within reservation borders before a federal agency permits the project. 

โ€œItโ€™s all predicated on something that isnโ€™t true: We donโ€™t have an energy emergency,โ€ said Gussie Lord, managing attorney at Earthjusticeโ€™s Tribal Partnerships Programs. Chipping away at public input and tribal consultation will only exacerbate issues that tribal nations face, Lord said. โ€œA lot of their resources, their cultural and environmental resources often are one and the same. The existing laws and regulations that we have are already insufficiently protective of tribal rights and resources.โ€

The administrationโ€™s changes to the NEPA review process took effect immediately last year, also without consultation. Under the Biden administration, the Council on Environmental Quality spent three and a half years updating the implementation regulations by consulting with tribal nations and the public, incorporating provisions requiring agencies to consider climate change and environmental justice impacts when reviewing projects. NEPA applies to all federal agencies, meaning that each agency has to come up with its own implementation guidelines. Tribes and experts worry that, under the new guidelines, agencies may not be compelled to work with tribes.

According to University of Arizona professor of law Justin Pidot, who previously served as general counsel for the White House Council on Environmental Quality, the resulting uncertainty could have serious consequences. โ€œOne is the agencies donโ€™t know how to work together. The second is that thereโ€™s litigation risk. The third is that project sponsors donโ€™t know what theyโ€™re supposed to do,โ€ Pidot said. The removal of those standards โ€œcreates lots of complexity for the public, for tribes, for states, for local governments, for nonprofits.โ€

Under the Interior Departmentโ€™s new interim set of standards, for example, reviews for something like a mining project will take 28 days. When the โ€œemergencyโ€ declaration is added,  it could take just 14 days, as it did with the Velvet-Wood mine. Past reviews could take up to four years. โ€œIt substantially limits the degree of information flowing from the federal government to the public about big projects, including to tribes,โ€ Pidot said.  โ€œWhat is surprising about this particular decision of theirs is that having a common set of rules makes sense for everyone.โ€

In comments to the Council on Environmental Quality about the elimination of the NEPA standards, many tribal nations expressed similar concerns. (See sidebar.) Tribes said they were not consulted, and that while dealing with numerous agencies and their different processes was burdensome, the removal of the regulations weakens the whole purpose of NEPA. The National Congress of American Indians and other organizations noted that some streamlining and deregulating could prove useful โ€” but not when tribal perspectives were excluded from the process. 

Last yearโ€™s federal budget cuts and mass layoffs further complicate matters, affecting agenciesโ€™ ability to carry out their work. Meanwhile, congressional budget cuts impacted funding for, among other things, tribal historic preservation officers, which are key to carrying out government-to-government consultation. The idea seems to be to โ€œdrown people in an avalanche while providing them with no resources to meet the moment, and call that consultation and collaboration,โ€ Pidot said.

At the same time that the federal government has moved to reduce public and tribal input, it has also been buying stakes in mining companies, including the two companies behind controversial projects opposed by some tribal nations and Indigenous communities: the Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada and the Ambler Road project in Alaska. โ€œItโ€™ll be interesting to see if their approval processes for mines in which the federal government has a stake is quicker than it otherwise would have been,โ€ Lord said.

Pidot summed it up this way: โ€œThe big theme is that anything and anyone that stands in the way of the kinds of projects that this administration wants to do is an obstacle to progress that theyโ€™re going to overrun.โ€  

We welcome reader letters. Email High Country News at editor@hcn.org or submit a letter to the editor. See our letters to the editor policy.

This article appeared in theย April 2026ย print edition of the magazineย with the headlineย โ€œNEPA changes could sideline tribes.โ€

The Daneros uranium mine in the Red Canyon uranium mining district in San Juan County, Utah. All uranium ore mined from this area travels through Bears Ears National Monument. Russel Albert Daniels/High Country News

Gay Mine, a former phosphate mine and current Superfund site on Fort Hall Reservation, in 1948. P1972-201-101. Courtesy of Idaho State Archives

Tribesโ€™ perspectives on changes to nepa implementation

Shoshone-Bannock Tribes, ID
โ€œOn the Fort Hall Reservation are environmentally hazardous sites created prior to modern-day NEPA protections. โ€ฆ By stripping away NEPAโ€™s provisions for public participation and environmental review, the federal government would further entrench long-standing historic inequities that have disadvantaged Tribal communities.โ€

Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes, MT
โ€œCEQ (Council on Environmental Quality) states that it does not need to consult with Tribes. โ€ฆ This is a tortured and disingenuous reading of EO 13175, in part because it focuses almost exclusively on a federal view of economic impacts on Tribal governments rather than the universe of environmental impacts.โ€

Susanville Indian Rancheria, CA
โ€œThe proposed removal of these regulations represents a significant step backward in our nationโ€™s commitment to environmental protection and tribal sovereignty.โ€

Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe, SD
โ€œCEQ is ignoring its established policy of including indigenous traditional ecological knowledge in environmental reviews under NEPA. These issues that have been part and parcel of the implementation of NEPA for decades, such as the consideration of impacts to environmental justice communities, the cumulative effects of projects, and climate change, are being arbitrarily cast aside in contravention of explicit statutory language.โ€

Bishop Paiute Tribe, CA
โ€œOur traditional and ancestral lands extend far beyond the exterior boundaries of our reservation, and the natural resources on these lands are not merely commodities to be exploited. They are vital to the cultural, spiritual, and economic fabric of all Tribal communities, sustaining traditions that have endured for generations.โ€

Tulalip Tribes, WA
โ€œThe lack of consultation exacerbates the already existing power imbalances, further diminishing the ability of tribes to exercise meaningful sovereignty and protect their interests.โ€

Nez Perce Tribe, ID
โ€œThe Tribe strongly objects to CEQโ€™s Proposed Rule, which eviscerates the framework that has been relied upon since CEQ first issued NEPA regulations in 1978.โ€

Big Pine Paiute Tribe, CA
โ€œThe interim final rule sidesteps NEPA โ€ฆ as it endorses Donald Trumpโ€™s personal agenda. The USA is a country of laws, not a place where oneโ€™s personal agenda may supersede the law.โ€

Native land loss 1776 to 1930. Credit: Alvin Chang/Ranjani Chakraborty

Forecast for Fryingpan-Arkanasas Project imported water for 2026 barely 10 percent of average — ArkValleyVoice.com #ArkansasRiver #FryingPanRiver

The AVC agreement stores water down-river in the Pueblo Reservoir, built after President John F. Kennedy signed legislation authorizing the Fry-Ark agreement in 1962. Photo courtesy of the City of Aurora.

inClick the link to read the article on the Ark Valley Voice website (Susan Roebuck). Here’s an excerpt:

April 16, 2026

In April and May of each year,ย the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (which operates the Fry-Ark Project) and the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District (SECWCD), which handle allotments of this water, make forecasts about the amount of water that can be imported through the Fry Ark Project. According to Chris Woodka, Senior Policy and Issues Manager, Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District (SECWCD), the 20-year average for imported water is 60,000 acre-feet per year. On April 1, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation forecast importing barely ten percent of that, only 6,500 acre-feet in 2026. This is the least amount imported since the system became fully operational in the late 1970โ€™s.

Also on April 1, the SECWCD projected allocating 4,600 acre-feet of those 6,500 acre-feet to water right holders. However, with the current snowpack, at this time it is not known if there will beย anyย allocation this year. If not, the imported water will be held in storage in one of the Fry Ark Projectโ€™s reservoirs.

Fryingpan-Arkansas Project via the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District (Click to enlarge)

The #ColoradoRiver disappeared from the geological record for 5 million years. Scientists now know where it went — Holly Oberย (University of #California Los Angeles) #COriver

Dark red and green mudstone beds with tan sand-dominated layers above, marking the arrival of Colorado River sediment into the Bidahochi basin 6.6 million years ago. Drone image taken by Brian Gootee, with permission of the Navajo Nation*

Click the link to read the release on the UCLA website (Holly Ober):

April 16, 2026

Key takeaways

  • The Colorado River existed in western Colorado 11 million years ago and first exited Grand Canyon around 5.6 million years ago. Now, scientists know more about the path it took to eventually reach the Gulf of California.
  • A ย study of zircons found in sandstone suggests it pooled just east of the Grand Canyon, before making its way downstream, ultimately arriving at the Gulf of California around 5 million years ago.
  • The moment marked the Colorado Riverโ€™s transition to a continental-scale river that connected life throughout its course.

Geologists have solved the mystery of the disappearance from the geological record, millions of years ago, of one of North Americaโ€™s most important waterways: the Colorado River. A new paper published in Science shows that the river flowed into an upstream lake over the course of a few million years, then likely flowed for the first time into the Grand Canyon. The moment marked the Colorado Riverโ€™s transition to a continental-scale river as it made its way down to the Gulf of California.

โ€œIn some ways, you could really think of it as the birth of the Colorado River that we know today,โ€ said first author and UCLA geologist John He. โ€œThere are rivers everywhere, but a river that carries water and sediment across the continent connects life throughout the region, and the entire ecosystem probably changed as a result of the arrival of the Colorado River into the basin.โ€

The finding, based on the analysis of sandstone samples, complements paleontological evidence, such as fish fossils, that suggests life began to become part of an integrated ecosystem throughout the Colorado River basin during this hidden chapter of its history.

Shaded relief map of the US via Learner.org

How and when did the Colorado River reach the Grand Canyon?

The Colorado River existed in western Colorado 11 million years ago and first exited the Grand Canyon around 5.6 million years ago. But how it navigated the terrain between the two points for around 5 million years had been a mystery. Now, new evidence suggests it pooled just east of the Grand Canyon, in what is now part of the Navajo Nation, before charting a downstream path that ultimately led to the Gulf of California around 5 million years ago.

The Grand Canyon was carved in multiple phases over a long period of time, but precisely when and how much the Colorado River incised it remains debated among geologists.  

โ€œGeologists have proposed over a dozen hypotheses for the canyonโ€™s formation and the Colorado Riverโ€™s path,โ€ said co-author John Douglass, a geologist at Paradise Valley Community College.  

One obstacle in the ancient riverโ€™s path is the Kaibab Arch, a topographic high point located in northern Arizona and southern Utah. Geologists have proposed different scenarios for how the river crossed it, but one theory that the new evidence makes more plausible is lake spillover. In this scenario, the Colorado River would have filled a lake and eventually exited it along a course to the Grand Canyon.

โ€œOther processes, such as karst piping, which involves water transport through rock, and headward erosion, may have also contributed to the establishment of the riverโ€™s course,โ€ explained corresponding author Ryan Crow, from the U.S. Geological Survey. โ€œSome reaches were likely newly carved, and others would have been significantly deepened by the integrated Colorado River over millions of years.โ€

The collaborative work began when He, Douglass and Emma Heitmann at the University of Washington, met in the field while studying the remnant deposits of Bidahochi Lake, an ancient lake on Navajo Nation land. Most of the deposits of this enigmatic lake have eroded away, so no one knows how large the lake was. Geologists also didnโ€™t know what rivers fed the lake, or why Bidahochi Lake eventually disappeared.

To understand where the sediments in Bidahochi Lake came from, He searched for zircons in the sandstone they collected.

Cluster of three compound crystals of zircon. By Rob Lavinsky, iRocks.com โ€“ CC-BY-SA-3.0, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10449836

Zircons are microscopic crystals that form in cooling magma. They do not degrade or change much over time and therefore contain an accurate geochemical signature of the moment they were created. Zircon is found in granite and other volcanic rocks, so it occurs abundantly in many sediments after the source rocks erode.

Geologists have developed a technique called detrital zircon geochronology that uses lasers or ion beams to measure the ratios of uranium and lead isotopes in hundreds of zircons in a sample. The unique age and history of each zircon can thus be traced to learn the sources of a sediment and estimate when it was deposited. The age spectrum derived from hundreds of zircons in a sample is called its detrital signature.

โ€œZircons are some of the oldest fragments of our Earth,โ€ said He. โ€œTheyโ€™re like little time vaults, and by looking at the age and geochemical signature of zircons, we can tell where a sediment that has been moved by a river originated.โ€

He was studying the detrital zircon signatures of the samples he collected when, to his surprise, he detected what he thought was the signature of sediments known to have been deposited by the Colorado River. When he brought this up to Douglass, his colleague said that was exactly what he, Crow and some of his colleagues at the U.S. Geological Survey were looking for at the same time.

The researchers teamed up with USGS geologists and colleagues at the Arizona Geologic Survey, the University of Oklahoma, and the University of Washington. Together, they compared the detrital signatures of thousands of zircons in the sand that He and coauthors collected with those from other known deposits of the ancestral Colorado River and a few other possible sources.

The results showed that signatures of the sediments deposited about 6.6 million years ago in Lake Bidahochi closely matched those of other Colorado River deposits downstream and upstream, including the Browns Park Formation in northern Utah and Colorado. Study of rock layers in the field from this time period showed signs of rippling that indicated a strong river flowed into standing water, and fossils of large fish species characteristic of fast-flowing waters.

These lines of evidence strongly indicated that the Colorado River was supplying water and sediment to the Bidahochi basin before it spilled over and the river began to flow through the Grand Canyon. This set the stage for the mighty Colorado River that carved much of the Grand Canyon and upon which much of the West depends for water.

โ€œI think there is something unique and disquieting when the planetโ€™s history is laid out before our eyes, but we cannot fully read it. Weโ€™ve always known the Grand Canyon is there, this solid towering wall of rock, but weโ€™re learning more each day how it formed,โ€ said He.

*Any person(s) wishing to conduct unmanned aerial vehicle flights on the Navajo Nation must first apply for and receive a permit from the Navajo Department of Transportation.

Dories at rest on a glorious Grand Canyon eve. Photo by Brian Richter

Big cuts are coming for #ColoradoRiver water. This #Arizona town will feel them first — KJZZ.org #COriver #aridification

Cave Creek Town Hall. By BowenLarsen – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=166323823

Click the link to read the article on the KJZZ website (Alex Hager). Here’s an excerpt:

April 17, 2026

On the outer edges of the Phoenix metro, the small town of Cave Creek sits nestled among the saguaro-dotted hills. Itโ€™s home to about 5,000 people and known mostly for its quiet residential neighborhoods, art galleries and an annual rodeo…Cave Creek, which gets about 95% of its water from the Colorado River, will be among the first to feel the impact of those cuts…Colorado River water travels to Cave Creek through the Central Arizona Project, a 336-mile canal that carries water from the stateโ€™s western border to the Phoenix and Tucson areas.

The federal government has suggested major cutsย to the amount of water the CAP carries each year, forcing Cave Creek officials to find a backup plan quickly. They will be able to keep taps flowing in the short term, but the future is uncertain, as long-term fixes are expensive and complicated…The first option for most cities, [Brad] Hill said, would be a turn to groundwater. For most, it is relatively easy and cheap to dig more wells near town and carefully use some of the water sitting in underground aquifers. Cave Creek cannot do that. Aquifers underneath the Valley are shaped like bathtubs. For one of those bathtubs, the deepest part is in the middle, and Cave Creek sits on the outer edge, so there isnโ€™t much water underneath town…Cave Creek is,ย part of a program to store excess Colorado River water underground.ย The town pays an annual fee for the rights to put water into that pool, which essentially serves as an emergency savings account for times when there isnโ€™t enough water above ground to serve everybodyโ€™s needs. Cave Creek has the right to take some of that water, but first it has to physically get it to town. Since the underground aquifer is far away, building a pipe directly into it would be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming. So instead, Cave Creek will be part of an exchange. Cave Creek is working on deals with three other Valley cities: Phoenix, Peoria and Surprise. Those cities can more easily tap into that underground savings account, so they will start using more groundwater and leave some of their CAP water in the canal, where Cave Creek can access it using its existing pumps.

Arizona Rivers Map via Geology.com.

Current Drought Reduction: How much precipitation is needed to end #drought in one month? — NOAA

Precipitation needed to end drought conditions in 1 month. Based on the PHDI. PHDI is a primary measure of long-term drought but may not apply to all areas, including those with heavily managed surface water. No additional precipitation is needed for white areas. Credit: NOAA

The USGS reports an overall decline in water use even as America’s population has risen

Graph illustrating water withdrawals in billion gallons per day from 1950 to 2015, with categories for groundwater, surface water, total withdrawals, and population growth.
A US Geological Survey chart from 2015 shows America’s population rising (purple) as surface water use (blue) fell.

by Robert Marcos

A landmark 2015 USGS study revealed that overall water consumption in the United States had declined even though our population had increased. A study in 2025 showed that that downward trend has continued. Scientists involved in the study reported that the decline has been driven by significant efficiency gains in the power and manufacturing sectors, and by improved household conservation.1

The EPA reported that municipal efforts to conserve water have been paying off. This includes the use of water saving faucets, toilets, and showers, plus the recycling of waste water. Meanwhile – due to climate change, other parts of the world have seen their demand for fresh water rise by as much as 40%.2

Detailed Comparison of Water Use (2015 vs. 2025)

Total Withdrawals: In 2015, the U.S. withdrew approximately 322 billion gallons per day, the lowest level reported since 1970. By 2025, total withdrawals have continued to stabilize or decline despite population increases, largely driven by significant reductions in thermoelectric power and industrial sectors.3


Wastewater Reuse: A major shift in the decade leading to 2025 was the rapid expansion of the municipal wastewater reuse market. Total reuse capacity was projected to increase by 61% by 2025, with potable reuse (treatment to drinking water quality) rising from 15% to 19% of total reuse capacity.4


Residential Consumption: The average American used 82 gallons per day at home in 2015. By 2025, widespread adoption of EPA WaterSense certified fixtures has allowed typical families to reduce this consumption by at least 20% through more efficient toilets, faucets, and showerheads.5

Positive developments in major sectors

Power generation: Electrical power generation has reduced the use fresh water by shifting from coal to renewables, like wind and solar, which require little to no water, and by implementing dry-cooling technologies. These improvements have dropped U.S. water withdrawal intensity from 14,928 gal/MWh in 2015 to 11,857 gal/MWh in 2020, as the energy mix shifts toward less water-intensive sources.6

Agricultural irrigation: Farmers have improved water efficiency by transitioning from flood irrigation to advanced pressurized systems, like drip and micro-irrigation. These systems deliver water directly to the plant’s root zone, significantly reducing losses from evaporation and runoff. Additionally, many operations now utilize precision agriculture technologies, including soil moisture sensors and GPS-guided machinery, to apply water only when and where it is needed based on real-time data. Complementary land management practices like conservation tillage (no-till) and the use of cover crops further enhance water retention by improving soil health and reducing surface evaporation.7

Bar graph showing U.S. irrigated farmland acreage using gravity and pressurized systems from 1984 to 2023, with data in millions of acres and color-coded for irrigation methods.

Industrial/Mining: The mining industry is conserving fresh water primarily by transitioning to closed-loop recycling systems that treat and reuse process water multiple times within a facility. Many companies are also adopting thickened tailings technology, which removes more water from waste streams before disposal, and utilizing alternative sources like desalinated seawater or treated municipal wastewater. Additionally, the shift toward dry stackingโ€”where waste is filtered into a sandy substanceโ€”significantly reduces the water lost to evaporation or seepage in traditional storage ponds.8

Geographic and Economic Shifts

Regional Demand: By 2025, regions like the Southwest and Colorado River basin faced increased pressure due to drought, leading to a 16.9% decline in specific sectors like golf course irrigation through aggressive management.

Investment: The market for municipal reuse and wastewater infrastructure reached an estimated $11 billion by 2025, with Florida and California accounting for over 80% of this activity.

Note about groundwater use estimates

While researching this article I was concerned the accuracy of ground water use estimates. It’s widely-known that most wells are not metered and that many farmers, ranchers, and land owners, are opposed to metering the groundwater they pump. But it appears that the USGS estimates ground water use with highly sophisticated satellite technology like those below.

Satellite Monitoring Methods

GRACE, (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment): These twin satellites “weigh” the Earth by measuring minute changes in gravity caused by the movement of water. By subtracting surface water and soil moisture from total water storage, scientists can estimate changes in deep groundwater.


InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar): This radar technology measures millimeter-level changes in land elevation. When aquifers are over-pumped, the ground above them often sinks (subsidence), which InSAR detects and uses to infer water level declines.

Landsat: This program monitors land surface characteristics, such as crop health and heat. The USGS uses this to map evapotranspiration, which helps estimate how much groundwater is being pumped for irrigation.
Satellite Telemetry: This is the most common operational use of satellites. The USGS equips thousands of physical wells with instrumentation that transmits real-time water level data directly to USGS ground stations via satellite.

Reclamation Acts to Protect #ColoradoRiver System During Historic #Drought: The prolonged drought combined with the lowest winter #snowpack on record is requiring swift actions to protect this vital water system #COriver #aridification

The Colorado River flows through seven states and provides water to 40 million people. Photo credit: USBR

Click the link to read the release on the Bureau of Reclamation website:

April 17, 2026

Long-term drought has reduced Colorado River system storage to about 36 percent of capacity, and the combination of the lowest snowpack on record and record-breaking March heat has further intensified drought conditions across the Basin. These compounding factors are creating elevated risks to essential water and power infrastructure that supply water to more than 40 million people, underscoring the need for immediate action.

Lake Powellโ€™s water year minimum probable inflow is forecasted at just 2.78 million acre-feetโ€”29% of historical average and one of the lowest on record. Reclamationโ€™s April โ€œ24 Month Studyโ€ projects Lake Powell may decline to below 3,490 feetโ€”the minimum power pool levelโ€”by August 2026 without major intervention. If Glen Canyon Dam declines below 3,490 feet, water releases would be only through the river outlet works, which could cause operational issues, uncertainty for users, downstream impacts, instability in regional power and water supplies, and a reduction in power generation.ย 

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum met with Governors for the seven basin states, Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, and their designees again today to discuss the concerning hydrology and plans for operations.ย 

โ€œI am grateful for the Governors and their teams working diligently to find a solution to the complex challenges created by these unprecedented drought conditions which require immediate action,โ€ saidย Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. โ€œInterior and Reclamation continue to coordinate with the basin states, tribes, Mexico and basin stakeholders as we make the decisions necessary to operate and protect the system.โ€ย 

To stabilize the system, Reclamation is moving quickly and initial plans include adding up to about 2.48 maf of water to Lake Powell by moving water from the upstream Flaming Gorge Reservoir and by reducing releases from Lake Powell.ย  [ed. emphasis mine]

Through the 2019 Drought Response Operating Agreements, Reclamation is intending to release 660,000 acre-feet to 1 maf from Flaming Gorge Reservoir from April 2026 through April 2027. In addition, Reclamation is intending to reduce the annual release volume from Lake Powell to Lake Mead by 1.48 mafโ€”from 7.48 maf to 6.0 mafโ€”through September 2026 by utilizing section 6E of the Record of Decisionโ€ฏfrom theโ€ฏfinal 2024 Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement for near-term Colorado River Operations.ย ย 

Together, these actions are expected to increase Lake Powellโ€™s elevation by approximately 54 ft to at least elevation 3500 feet by April 2027. Through the current, ongoing DROA process, the basin states, tribes and partners continue to provide feedback related to the proposed releases. A final decision will be coming next week.ย 

Flaming Gorge Reservoir now holds about 3.1 maf of water, which is 83% full. These actions are expected to lower the reservoirโ€™s elevation by roughly 35 feet over the next year to approximately 59% of capacity. This will have no effect on contracted water rights at Flaming Gorge or Lake Powell. No additional releases from the other upstream initial units of the Colorado River Storage Project Actโ€”Blue Mesa and Navajo reservoirsโ€”are planned at this time, due to their low water levels and poor forecasted inflows.ย ย [ed. emphasis mine]

โ€œGiven the severity of the risks facing the Colorado River system, it is imperative that we take action quickly to protect a resource that supplies water to 40 million people and supports vital agricultural, hydropower production, tribal, wildlife, and recreational uses across the region,โ€ saidย Assistant Secretary – Water and Science Andrea Travnicek. โ€œAs we weigh current conditions and prepare for future operations by working with states, tribal nations and stakeholders, the Department of the Interior and Reclamation remain fully committed to taking the actions necessary to reduce impacts on water deliveries, safeguard critical infrastructure, and preserve as much operational flexibility as possible.โ€ย  ย 

Basin-wide impactsย 

Reclamation acknowledges that the proposed reduced releases from Lake Powell will accelerate the downstream decline of Lake Mead, with the potential for up to an additional 40% reduction to Hoover Damโ€™s hydropower generating capacity as early as this fall. Reclamation and its lower basin partners are collaborating to conserve water in Lake Mead and maintain its water levels, even as releases from Lake Powell are planned to decrease.ย ย 

The initial proposed drought response actions may also impact recreation across multiple sites. At upstream reservoirs, boating access may be reduced earlier in the season than normal. In the Grand Canyon, lower flow rates will affect rafting conditions, and fishing may be more challenging. At Lake Mead National Recreation Area, reduced water levels may further limit boating access. Reclamation is working with reservoir recreation management partners now and as the summer progresses.ย ย 

The 2026 operational challenges come at a time of transition as the existing agreements that guided the operations of the Colorado River for the last two decades are set to expire at the end of the year. As we approach the new water year on October 1, the seven basin states have not reached consensus on a new operating framework. With time running out, there is a need for extraordinary collaboration for 2027 and beyond. In the absence of a consensus and following the completion of the NEPA process, the Interior Department will be prepared to determine operations for Post 2026 later this summer to provide certainty and stability for the Colorado River Basin.ย ย 

To learn more about the Interior Departmentโ€™s or Reclamationโ€™s activities around the Colorado River, please visit theย Colorado River Basin website.ย 

Colorado River “Beginnings”. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism

Fedsโ€™ $140 million promised to #ColoradoRiver drought mitigation projects remains stuck for โ€˜bureaucraticโ€™ reasons — The Summit Daily #COriver #aridification

The Colorado River passing Grand Junction, Colorado. Photo by Robert Marcos.

Click the link to read the article on the Summit Daily website (Ali Longwell). Here’s an excerpt:

April 13, 2026

Despite pressure from Coloradoโ€™s congressional delegation, around $140 million in federal fundingย previously grantedย to Western Slope water projects has lingered in limbo for nearly 16 months. The funds, awarded to 17 Western Slope projects in the final days of President Joe Bidenโ€™s administration, were part of the Inflation Reduction Actโ€™s drought mitigation grant opportunity for the Upper Colorado River Basin. This included $40 million granted to the Colorado River District to aid in its purchase of the Shoshone water rights, the oldest and largest non-consumptive right on the Colorado River tied to the hydropower plant in Glenwood Canyon.ย  Three days after the awards were announced, President Donald Trump took office, and his Day 1 order, โ€œUnleashing American Energy,โ€ called for all federal agencies to โ€œimmediately pause the disbursement of funds appropriated through the Inflation Reduction Act.โ€ In June, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamationย released funds for two of the projectsย in the Orchard Mesa Irrigation District in Palisade, but the rest remain frozen.ย 

โ€œThe funding has not yet been released, and thatโ€™s a real concern given current conditions across all of Colorado, but particularly western Colorado,โ€ said Rep. Jeff Hurd, a Republican representing Coloradoโ€™s third district spanning the Western Slope, in an interview on Thursday, April 9. โ€œI am continuing to press hard for clarity on timing and next steps because those projects were awarded for a reason and the need has not gone away.โ€

The Inflation Reduction Act set aside $4 billion toward drought mitigation, including funds for the Bureau of Reclamationโ€™s Upper Colorado River Basin System Conservation and Efficiency program, also known as the Bucket 2E funding. In January, the Bureau under Bidenโ€™s administration allocated a total of $388.3 million to 42 projects on tribal land and in states in the Upper Basin.ย 

Shoshone Falls hydroelectric generation station via USGenWeb

This included $152 million for 17 projects in Colorado, including those for wildlife habitat, watershed and stream restoration, water infrastructure improvements and more. Only $12 million of this funding for two Orchard Mesa Irrigation District projectsย  โ€” meant to improve water delivery to the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River, which extends from Grand Junction and the confluence of the Gunnison River and serves as critical habitat for several endangered fish species, as well as install new metering technology in the Grand Valley โ€” has been released to the awardees.ย  The largest Colorado award was the $40 million promised to the River District, which represents 15 Western Slope counties. This funding represented a large chunk of the $98.5 million that the River District needs to purchase the Shoshone water rights from Excel Energy. Outside of the frozen federal dollars, the River District has raised $57.2 million fromย the state Legislature, its board and the various Western Slope municipalities and utilities it serves.ย  Matt Aboussie, Colorado River Districtโ€™s communications director, said the district continues to work closely with the Bureau of Reclamation to secure this promised funding and remains committed to securing the rights.ย 

โ€œFunding will not be the obstacle that stops this effort,โ€ Aboussie said. โ€œIf needed, River District leadership is prepared with alternative funding options and continues to rely on all our communities to get this project across the finish line.โ€

#Colorado State University sets #drought workshops for farmers and ranchers across Colorado

Photo credit: Colorado State University

Click the link to read the release on the Colorado State University website (Anthony Lane):

April 10, 2026

Colorado State University Extension experts are working with partners statewide to host drought planning workshops for farmers, ranchers and land managers seeking advice and support responding to the stateโ€™s abnormally dry conditions.
 
The workshops, drawing on materials and expertise from the Colorado Agricultural Drought Advisors, will highlight research on drought resilience and adaptation, with a focus on supporting agricultural producers as they develop and refine their own drought-response plans.  

โ€œOur goal at these workshops is to leverage what farmers and ranchers already know,โ€ said Retta Bruegger, a CSU Extension range management specialist who co-founded Drought Advisors in 2020. โ€œWe offer support and a flexible framework to help producers create a formalized plan that they can use to make more strategic decisions when coping with drought.โ€

The workshops

Responding to Drought Impacts in 2026: A Workshop for Livestock Producers
Routt County
5:30-8:15 p.m. Monday, April 13 
STARS Ranch, 35465 U.S. Highway 40, Steamboat Springs

When in Drought: Smart Irrigation and Soil Management
Larimer County
8 a.m. to noon Tuesday, April 21 
McKee Building at The Ranch, 5280 Arena Circle, Loveland
(The program will continue with a drip irrigation demonstration from noon to 2 p.m. at Flores Del Sol Natural Area, 8101 S. Timberline Road, Fort Collins.)

Agriculture Drought Management Workshop
Montezuma County
5:30-7:30 p.m. Thursday, April 23
Lewis Arriola Community Center, 21176 County Road S, Cortez

Details forthcoming for the following:

  • Fremont Countyย on Wednesday, June 10
  • Morgan & Adams Countyย (date TBD)

In addition to hosting workshops, Drought Advisors provides one-on-one drought planning assistance and offers resources for producers statewide, including the โ€œColorado Agricultural Drought Handbookโ€ and sample drought plans . For more information, visit https://droughtadvisors.org

The Westโ€™s snow drought meant record dryness โ€” but also record flooding: From the Cascades to the San Juans, the nearly snowless winter wasnโ€™t the same everywhere — Anna Marija Helt (High Country News)

Image showing little snow cover along the South Fork of the Salmon River in Idaho in February.ย Hannah Adams/Idaho Department of Water Resources

Click the link to read the article on The High Country News website (Anna Marija Helt):

April 14, 2026

Old snow crunched underfoot in mid-January as a dozen people snowshoed near Molas Pass in Coloradoโ€™s San Juan Mountains. The interpretive hike, hosted by local environmental organizations, covered ecology, climate change and snow. It was the perfect classroom: below an azure sky, bare ground beneath trailside spruces and pines was a local example of what turned out to be a devastating lack of snow across the West.

Mountain snowpack is the Westโ€™s largest reservoir, providing water for 100 million people and diverse ecosystems. The amount of water stored in the snowpack historically peaks around April 1. But this year, the snowpack in many places was absent, or nearly so, by then โ€” the lowest level in the 45 years since automated measurements began.   

A stubborn high-pressure ridge contributed to the snow drought by shunting winter storms north to Canada in January. But the main culprit, according to the nonprofit Climate Central, was exceptional heat from climate change, which also caused a spring heat wave that decimated what snow there was at a time when other dry winters have seen โ€œmiracle Marchโ€ snowstorms.

This map from the USDAโ€™s Natural Resources Conservation Services shows snow-water equivalent (SWE) as of April 1 (near the typical peak of snowpack in the Western U.S.). The current SWE is shown as a percentage of the recent historical median SWE. United States Department of Agriculture

The lack of snow was unusually widespread across the Western U.S. But considering it as a whole makes it easier to miss the regional manifestations and implications of a winter that also brought record flooding and record dryness in addition to record heat. Hereโ€™s how the snow drought played out in a few regions that exemplify this winterโ€™s variability:

Whiplash in Washingtonโ€™s Cascades

Winter in Washingtonโ€™s Cascade Range started and ended in โ€œwetโ€ snow drought โ€” with precipitation falling as rain instead of snow. In December, over 2 feet of rain fell in two weeks in some places, melting much of the nascent snowpack and causing catastrophic flooding west of the Cascades. But it also replenished reservoirs in the Yakima Basin, on the drier eastern side of the range, which were only 8% full in October, a quarter of their normal volume.

Dry snow drought hit in January, when little precipitation fell. While pockets of Washingtonโ€™s Cascades saw near-normal precipitation in February, most of the mountains stayed dry, and the rangeโ€™s snowpack remained well below average. Then, despite several feet of snow landing in March, rain followed and washed it away.

Thatโ€™s a problem for the Yakima Basin, which lacks the reservoir capacity to store enough runoff to meet the regionโ€™s needs. The snowpack typically serves as an additional reservoir, storing water as snow into summer, said hydrogeologist and geochemist Carey Gazis of Central Washington University in Ellensburg.

Little snow covers the ground where two bald eagles perch atop a rock near Cooke Canyon about 10 miles northeast of Ellensberg, Washington, last December. Courtesy of Megan Walsh/Central Washington University

South of Ellensburg lies the Yakima Valley โ€” the โ€œfruit bowl of the nationโ€ โ€” where snowmelt is essential for irrigating crops, including cherries, apples, grapes, hops and mint. It also supports the Yakama Nationโ€™s efforts to restore populations of culturally important migratory fish. As of March, the Bureau of Reclamation forecasted that many farmers in the Yakima Valley would receive just 44% of their usual water supply this growing season due to the snow drought.

One long-term solution is to create more water storage by augmenting aquifers. โ€œThereโ€™s all this space under the surface that can hold more water,โ€ said Gazis, who studies such processes. Projects pumping runoff or enhancing passive water infiltration into the ground are already happening in parts of the basin, including on the Yakama Nation reservation.

Northern Rocky Mountain high

As in Washingtonโ€™s Cascades, winter in the Rocky Mountains of Idaho, Montana and western Wyoming was bookended by wet snow droughts, with a dry January in between. However, colder temperatures at higher elevations allowed for a near- to above-average snowpack in some areas that persisted into mid-March, leaving them in better shape than most of the West in early April.

That helped places dependent on winter tourism, such as Idahoโ€™s Wood River Valley. โ€œItโ€™s as busy as ever, if not a little busier, because we have snow,โ€ unlike many other winter destinations, such as those in Colorado, said the director of the valleyโ€™s Environmental Resource Center, Ashton Wilson, in February.

An intrepid group of hut renters heads up the final hill into the Pioneer Yurt, at almost 8200 feet in elevation in Montanaโ€™s Pioneer Mountains. Courtesy of Ashton Wilson/Environmental Resource Center
Environmental Resource Center (ERC) employees haul loads of gear and supplies into Bench Hut in late March in Idahoโ€™s Sawtooth Mountains for their annual woodcut over a mix of dirt, rocks and snow. Courtesy of Ashton Wilson/Environmental Resource Center

Additionally, Russell Qualls, Idahoโ€™s state climatologist, speculated that the Wood River Basin and others nearby may do โ€œfairly wellโ€ this summer in terms of providing water for the towns and agriculture that depend on them.

But little to no snow at middle and lower elevations in Idaho, Wyoming and Montana โ€” and ongoing unseasonable heat โ€” might mean a long fire season unless sufficient rain arrives in spring and summer. Indeed, while fire season usually starts in May or June in Montana and Wyoming, both states experienced wildfires over 1,000 acres in March.

But high and dry in Colorado

Colorado also experienced such medium-sized wildfires, but they started much earlier โ€” in December. Both December and January were abnormally dry, and one of the few storms that did arrive dropped rain at up to 11,000 feet โ€” unusually high for winter, and unprecedented in much of Colorado.

This was evident at the January snowshoe hike near Molas Pass, led by the San Juan Mountains Association and Mountain Studies Institute. Outdoor educator Colin Courtney guided attendees wielding avalanche shovels in digging a snow pit to measure the snowpackโ€™s depth and water content. With a dullย thunk, shovel blades hit dirt just 2 feet down. As he melted snow samples over a camp stove, Courtney noted that the snowpack at the pass held 23% as much water as in an average year โ€” the snow water equivalent, a more meaningful measurement than depth alone when planning for annual water needs and wildfire risk. โ€œItโ€™s a very real thing to be concerned this year,โ€ said Courtney.

There are ecological threats, too. Research in New Hampshire and Finland has shown complicated effects on tree health when root systems lack an insulating layer of snow during winter. The impact on trees here โ€” already stressed from the worst megadrought in 1,200 years โ€”isnโ€™t known.

โ€œThis is our worst snowpack on record,โ€ wrote climatologist Allie Mazurek of the Colorado Climate Center in an early April email. She blamed the Westโ€™s record-breaking March heat wave for tipping the state beyond its prior historic low, in 1981.

Looking out towards the La Plata and San Juan mountains in Coloradoโ€™s Mesa Verde National Park in January. Courtesy of Allie Mazurek/Colorado Climate Center, Colorado State University

Denver has already initiated water restrictions. But the implications go beyond state lines: Coloradoโ€™s snowpack also provides water to 18 other states, dozens of tribal nations and parts of Mexico. The Colorado River Basin provides drinking water for one in 10 people in the U.S., irrigates over 5 million acres of cropland and generates substantial hydroelectric power. This yearโ€™s snow drought is exacerbating an already fraught fight among the seven states in the Colorado Basin over how to manage the dwindling river.     

โ€œOne caveat to some of this is El Niรฑo,โ€ wrote Mazurek. The climate pattern may bring lots of rain to Colorado, and forecasters expect it to develop in early fall. โ€œStill, rain tends to do much less for our water supply than snow,โ€ she added.

And snow is a resource that will likely be in shorter and shorter supply in the years to come in the West, where researchers expect climate change to shrink snow-supplied water by about a quarter by mid-century. Mazurek summed up the regionโ€™s predicament succinctly: โ€œWe should probably be preparing for less water to be coming down from the mountain snowpack than usual.โ€

Shaded relief map of the US via Learner.org

The biggest potato cull pile the #SanLuisValley has ever seen: An estimated hundred million pounds will need to be disposed of after overproduction and a warm March ruin potatoes in storage — AlamosaCitizen.com #RioGrande

Click the link to read the article on the Alamosa Citizen website:

April 14, 2026

The San Luis Valley has an overabundance of potatoes in storage here in mid-April that, because of the warm winter, is leading to concerns about what happens as a new growing season begins.

An historically hot March that punctuated a warm winter overall is creating quality standard problems in the potato bins of the Valley. If a potato bin doesnโ€™t meet the quality standard, it doesnโ€™t ship. [ed. emphasis mine]

โ€œWhen we start to lose a bin, a bin can be 5,000 sacks, 10,000 sacks, up to 100,000 sacks โ€ฆ then we look at a really gigantic pile of potatoes that has to be managed,โ€ explains Jeff McCullough, who operates Spud Seller farms and potato packaging and distribution in Rio Grande County.

Fourth-generation farmer Jeff McCullough. Credit: The Citizen

McCullough does the math on the amount of potatoes estimated to be in storage that may not find a market or their way to processing facility and comes up with a mind-boggling figure on how big a problem this is.

Based on conversations with other operators in the Valley, he is estimating a million hundredweight worth of potatoes, or about a hundred million pounds of potatoes that may not be sold or processed this year and would have to be dumped.

Others say the figure may be an underestimate. And they say the problem isnโ€™t just in the San Luis Valley but everywhere potatoes are grown as an oversupply and weak market keep potatoes in storage.

How a warm winter hurts the quality of potatoes in storage: โ€œA potato is a living organism. It generates its own heat. And so throughout the wintertime, we still have to push cold air and cool those potatoes down. Otherwise, those potatoes will generate heat and once they generate enough heat, theyโ€™ll sprout, then they wonโ€™t meet a quality standard at all โ€ฆ Thereโ€™s a lot of instances where you lose an entire bin because the bin generates too much heat before you can get it sold.โ€ โ€”ย Jeff McCullough, Spud Sellerย 

Itโ€™s the responsibility of each grower to figure out how to dispose of whatโ€™s left over from their fields, but with such a large amount, McCullough and others see it as a communitywide problem that is going to require input at the public level on what to do.

To that end, McCullough has been meeting with county officials and has a joint meeting set up to address the situation with county commissioners representing Alamosa and Rio Grande counties.

โ€œWeโ€™re going to need to find a good way to dispose of these potatoes,โ€ McCullough says.  

Adding to the problem is the loss of the Colorado Gourmet processing plant in Center that burned down two years ago and isnโ€™t coming back, leaving the Valley with only one processing facility. It handled about 40 percent of the potatoes that got processed each year.

Potato production in the Valley remained steady in 2025. Total potato acreage went to 51,474 acres from 50,188 acres in 2024, according to the 2025 USDA acreage report. A tight potato market, though, is keeping potatoes in storage as local growers work with distributors over the next three months to move potatoes and clear storage for the 2026 crop.

Credit: The Citizen

โ€œThe next harvest will start roughly, the first of September, and so the ideal situation is we are out of this crop the day that we start harvesting the new crop,โ€ says McCullough. 

The Spud Seller needs to move about 550,000 sacks of potatoes โ€“ each sack 100 pounds โ€“ by around July to keep pace and to keep the backlog of potatoes from growing at his operation, McCullough figures.

Others are in similar boats. 

โ€œThereโ€™s still a shit-ton of potatoes out there,โ€ said Mark Lounsbury, general manager of Grower Shipper Potato Company. 

Lounsbury and McCulloughโ€™s packaging and shipping operations are two of the biggest in the Valley.

2025 top six certified varieties of SLV spuds were:

โ€ข Reveille Russet (2,611 acres)
โ€ข Russet Norkotah selections (2,444 acres)
โ€ข Canela Russet (457 acres)
โ€ข Soraya (429 acres)
โ€ข Teton Russet (339 acres)
โ€ข Alegria (371 acres)

The variety of potato in storage matters, too. Some varieties have a longer dormancy period and will store longer, while a less dormant variety like a Russet Norkotah that wants to sprout has to be gone by a calendar date, McCullough said.

Newer varieties of potatoes are creating efficiencies on the growing side, using less water and creating more yield even as less acreage is planted.

Potato growers have to follow rules for cull piles outlined in the Colorado Seed Potato Act, which will make the dumping of the amount of potatoes McCullough and others are talking about all the more challenging to figure out.

Hence the outreach to county officials.

Credit: The Citizen

The process involves smashing or crushing each individual potato, spreading them out in a very thin layer and then running them over with something. โ€œFor example, we have a manure spreader that we run our potatoes through and it chops them up and it kind of disintegrates them. And then it spreads them out into a thin layer, and then once you break the skin of that potato, it dries out really well,โ€ McCullough says.

โ€œWeโ€™ve been in situations in years past where weโ€™ve had to dump a lot of potatoes, and itโ€™s because of those years that weโ€™ve come up with these new laws.โ€

But Valley potato growers rarely see a year where a hundred million pounds of potatoes may have to be dumped. Then again, the Valley has never seen a March where the temperatures reached into the 80s and caused potatoes in storage to want to sprout.

An oversupply of potatoes, coupled with a burned-down processing plant and a much too warm winter, is creating the conditions for a biggest cull pile of potatoes the Valley has ever seen. Proper disposal is essential.

โ€œIt is not one person that can swoop in and solve this,โ€ said Tara Artho, executive director of the Colorado Potato Administrative Committee in Monte Vista. โ€œItโ€™s going to take the community.โ€

Aerial view of the San Luis Valleyโ€™s irrigated agriculture. Photo by Rio de la Vista.

โ€˜It could be pretty direโ€™: Water managers at Elkhead Reservoir face hard decisions following a year of historically low snowfall — #Craig Press

Elkhead Reservoir is taking center stage following a winter of historically low snowfall, leaving water managers with hard decisions and water users with a high degree of uncertainty. Courtesy Photo/Colorado Parks & Wildlife

Click the link to read the article on the Craig Press website (John Camponeschi). Here’s an excerpt:

April 14, 2026

A historically dry winter is setting up what water officials describe as one of the most challenging runoff seasons in recent memory, with operations and allocations at Elkhead Reservoir expected to play a critical role in stretching limited supplies across Northwest Colorado….That challenging outlook [ed. snowpack and streamflow in 2025] and lessons learned from past years with low snowfall are key focal points in early planning and coordination among water managers, particularly for reservoirs like Elkhead, which serves irrigators, municipalities and environmental needs in the Yampa River Basin…Calahan said warm, dry conditions have dramatically accelerated snowmelt, raising the likelihood of a runoff season that arrives early, fades quickly and leaves water managers facing difficult decisions for a wide range of stakeholders…In a more typical year, gradual warming allows the snowpack to melt slowly, sustaining river flows well into summer. This year, however, that prolonged runoff is not materializing, which is already increasing pressure on stored water supplies. While late spring storms or summer monsoons could provide some relief, officials do not expect conditions to return anywhere near an average water year. That uncertainty leaves reservoir managers balancing how much water to store versus how much to release to meet downstream demand.

Yampa River Basin via Wikimedia.

#Drought news April 16, 2026: The plains of eastern #Colorado experienced nearly a full-category degradation, with expansion of moderate, severe, and extreme drought

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Much of the country continued to experience above-normal temperatures in April. During the last week, the warmest temperatures were over the southern Midwest and into the central Plains, where departures were 9ยฐF or greater. California and portions of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic were near normal to slightly below normal. Dryness has continued in the Southeast, portions of the South, the Northeast, and much of the High Plains. The greatest precipitation occurred in the Great Basin, northern California, central and west Texas, northeast Kansas, and across much of Michigan and Wisconsin, where spring thunderstorms developed within an active weather pattern, mainly over the Midwest…

High Plains

Temperatures were mostly above normal, with only eastern North Dakota and northeast South Dakota near or below normal. The greatest departures occurred in central Kansas, where temperatures were 12โ€“15 degrees above normal. Above-normal precipitation was observed in southwest and northern North Dakota.

Kansas experienced the most active weather, with southwest and eastern areas of the state and southeast Nebraska recording above-normal precipitation. Some areas of northeast Kansas received more than 400% of normal precipitation. These rains led to improvements in abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions across southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Some areas of eastern Nebraska and south-central Kansas also saw improvements.

Extreme drought expanded across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, while severe drought expanded across southwest Kansas. The plains of eastern Colorado experienced nearly a full-category degradation, with expansion of moderate, severe, and extreme drought…

Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending April 14, 2026.

West

Warmer-than-normal temperatures dominated the region this past week. Departures were 6โ€“8 degrees above normal across most of Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming. Only the Sierra Nevada area and northern California were near to slightly below normal.

Precipitation was mixed, with parts of northern California, northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, southern Utah, eastern and western New Mexico, southwest Idaho, and eastern Washington receiving above-normal precipitation.

The lack of snowpack will continue to impact the region in the coming months. Earlier-than-normal snowmelt, below-normal seasonal totals, and increased liquid precipitation are contributing to hydrological impacts.

Changes this week included improvements in moderate drought in northeastern California and expansion of moderate and severe drought in southern Arizona. Southern Idaho into northern Nevada saw expansion of severe, extreme, and exceptional drought, while severe drought expanded across eastern and northern New Mexico…

South

Precipitation was mixed across the region. Oklahoma and much of central and western Texas received more than 150% of normal precipitation. Farther east, eastern Arkansas and Louisiana saw light precipitation, while areas farther west and into Tennessee remained mostly dry.

Temperatures were above normal across much of the region, with only southern Texas, southern Louisiana, and eastern Mississippi near or below normal. The greatest departures occurred in western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, where temperatures were 12โ€“15 degrees above normal.

Drought expanded and intensified across much of Tennessee, with moderate and severe drought expanding statewide and a new area of extreme drought developing in the northwest. In Mississippi, moderate and severe drought expanded across eastern and southern areas, with extreme drought expanding in the northwest. Arkansas remained dry, with extreme and exceptional drought expanding in both northern and southern areas.

Louisiana saw expansion of extreme drought across much of the south, as well as central and northern areas. Moderate and severe drought also expanded across southern portions of the state. Oklahoma remained largely unchanged, with only minor expansion of severe drought in the panhandle.

The most significant improvements occurred in Texas, where much of central, southern, and southeastern portions of the state saw a full-category improvement in drought conditions. However, severe drought expanded in parts of the panhandle…

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5โ€“7 days, precipitation is expected to be most prominent across the southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The heaviest precipitation is likely from eastern Kansas into Missouri and northward into eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and the Great Lakes.

Additional precipitation is expected from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and High Plains. Dryness is likely to persist across much of the Southwest and Southeast.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal from the northern Rockies into the High Plains, with the greatest departures in western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and central Montana (10โ€“13 degrees above normal). Cooler-than-normal temperatures are anticipated across much of central Texas (5โ€“9 degrees below normal), while warmer-than-normal conditions are expected across the Mid-Atlantic (5โ€“7 degrees above normal).

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the locations with the best chances of experiencing below- normal temperatures are in the Southwest, especially those locations in Arizona and southern Nevada and California as well as in New England with the best chances in both Arizona and Maine. There is a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures over much of the Midwest, Plains, and into the South and Southeast with the best chances over Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma into southern Nebraska and Iowa. Precipitation chances are expected to be near-normal over southern Florida and southern areas of New Mexico and Arizona. Near-normal precipitation is also expected over the Pacific Northwest, upper Midwest and into the Northern Plains. In the Northeast, there will be a mix of near-normal to below-normal precipitation chances. Most of the rest of the country has above-normal chances of recording above-normal precipitation with the greatest chances over an area from northern Louisiana to Indiana.

US Drought Monitor one week change map ending April 14, 2026.

Abysmal math on the #ColoradoRiver: Feds look to avoid de facto deadpool at #GlenCanyon Dam — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org) #COriver #aridification

The Central Arizona Project canal, which carries Colorado River water to Phoenix and Tucson, as it runs past fields in the desert (that are irrigated with groundwater, not CAP water). The CAP is not likely to see new cuts this year beyond the levels already imposed. Source: Google Earth.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

April 14, 2026

๐ŸŸย Colorado River Chroniclesย ๐Ÿ’ง

With each passing April day without major snowfall, we gain more clarity on the Colorado River situation and what things might look like this summer, which is, in a word, grim.ย Or, as Arizonaโ€™s top water officials put it: โ€œThe winter and spring snowpack and runoff projections in the upper basin are abysmal.โ€

The Colorado River Basin Forecast Center is putting a number to that term by predicting that the Colorado River system will deliver about 1.4 million acre-feet1ย of water to Lake Powell from April 1 through July 31. Thatโ€™s about 23% of the median for the spring runoff season, which is when flows are most abundant, and just over half of last yearโ€™s not so great figure of 2.6 MAF.

This yearโ€™s Upper Colorado Basin spring runoff is forecast to be about 1.4 million acre-feet. That isnโ€™t as low as 2002, which was just below 1 million acre-feet, but if conditions donโ€™t improve it could fall even lower than that. Source: Colorado River Basin Forecast Center.

Believe it or not, that figure โ€” the official 50% forecast, made by an actual person โ€” may be optimistic. Over the last two weeks, the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction model (which is a constantly updating automated forecast) has come up with an even more dire outlook, downgrading the forecast to 1.16 MAF during that same time period.

Abysmal, indeed.

Weโ€™re also getting a little more information as to how the feds plan to address the crisis, at least in the near-term. Most significantly, they tentatively plan to โ€œdefendโ€ minimum power pool at Glen Canyon Dam, which is to say they will do what it takes to keep the surface level of Lake Powell at or above 3,500 feet in elevation to avoid relying on the lower river outlets, which are not engineered for sustained use. The weapons they will use for this defense include:

  • Reducing Lake Powell releases from the planned 7.48 million acre-feet to 6 million acre-feet.
  • Releasing up to 1 MAF from the โ€œUpper Initial Units,โ€ which includes Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa, and Navajo Reservoirs. Hydrology may make this impossible, however, meaning that these releases could be as low asย 650 MAFย .65 MAF (or 650,000 acre-feet).
  • For now, Interior is not asking for larger cuts from the Lower Basin (beyond the 1.5 MAF cuts theyโ€™ve already taken), which presumably means the feds will not reduce Lake Mead releases through Hoover Dam.

But will it be enough to avoid dipping below what I call de facto deadpool at Lake Powell? We wonโ€™t really know until later this summer, but a fairly simple calculation can help predict that future. Keep in mind that Iโ€™m no hydrologist, Iโ€™m just working with the numbers that are available to see whether potential inputs (Lake Powell inflows) are at least equal to planned outputs (Glen Canyon Dam releases).

I put together this little diagram to help visualize things. I know the text is tough to read in the email version, and especially if youโ€™re reading this on your phone. So Iโ€™d suggest clicking on the image (or the headline of this post) and viewing it in the web version.

Simplified diagram of Glen Canyon Dam with inputs (on the right) and outputs (on the left). *Fish pool is the surface level scientists have deemed necessary for minimizing the potential of non-native bass escaping through the dam and propagating downstream, where they can compete with endangered native fish. Infographic by Land Desk using data from Bureau of Reclamation and the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center.

Here are the figures for the equation.ย 

Inflows:

  • 1.5 MAF: Lake Powell Storage available above 3,500 feet.
  • 1.1 MAF to 1.4 MAF: Forecast Lake Powell inflows April-July
  • .65 MAF to 1 MAF: Planned releases from upper basin reservoirs.

TOTAL INFLOWS: 3.25 to 3.9 MAF

Outflows:

  • 2.9 MAF: April 1 – Oct. 1 releases to reach 6 MAF for the water year (3.13 MAF has already been released)
  • .3 MAF: Rough estimate of evaporation from Lake Powell for the remainder of the water year.

TOTAL OUTFLOWS: 3.2 MAF

That gives us a whopping .05 to .7 million acre-feet to spare. That is cutting it close, folks; a hot, dry summer could drive evaporation levels up, and/or bring inflows down, shaving off the sliver of breathing room this affords. But unless the outlook dims considerably, the BoR should be able to avoid a run-of-the-river situation this year, which is good news. And, since Arizona likely will not be required to take more cuts this year, the state will probably hold off on doing a compact call and dragging the Upper Basin to court.ย 

These measures, however, will have a variety of consequences, including:

  • The Upper Basin reservoirs (Flaming Gorge, Navajo, Blue Mesa) are also likely to see record low inflows this year.ย That, combined with up to 1 million acre-feet of additional releases to benefit Lake Powell, will draw them down considerably, affecting hydropower production, irrigation, and, especially, recreation.ย 
  • Non-native smallmouth bass are abundant in Lake Powell, but since they are warmer-water fish, they tend to stay near the surface of the reservoir, meaning under normal conditions they stay well above the penstocks, or the outlets in the dam that lead to the hydropower turbines. However,ย as the surface drops closer to the penstock openings, so do the fish, allowing them to get flushed through the dam into the Colorado River.ย And because the water released from the dam is warmer (since itโ€™s nearer to the surface), that warms the river downstream, allowing the bass to thrive and compete with the endangered native fish downstream. This is likely to be exacerbated as the surface level nears 3,500 feet.ย 
  • This yearโ€™s 6 MAF release from Glen Canyon Dam will bring the ten-year aggregate flows at Lees Ferry down to about 79 million acre-feet.ย This potentially puts the Upper Basin in violation of Article III of the Colorado River Compact, which mandates that the Upper Basin โ€œnot cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75 million acre-feetโ€ for any 10-year period. A 1944 treaty added another 7.5 million acre-feet to this figure to cover half of Mexicoโ€™s allotment, making for a total of 82.5 MAF over ten years. Note: The interpretation of this provision is in dispute.ย 
  • The diminished reservoir levels, combined with the reduced releases, will lead to lower hydropower output from the dam.ย That will force tribes, communities, and utilities that buy the relatively cheap power to purchase it on the open market. And it will also cut into power-sale revenues, which help fund endangered fish recovery programs.ย 
  • Reduced dam releases will mean lower flows, on average, through the Grand Canyon, affecting riparian ecosystems and boating.ย 
  • Reduced dam releases equate to lower flows into Lake Mead. Since the BoR apparently does not plan to cut releases from Hoover Dam, that reservoir will likely see its levels drop considerably, diminishing hydropower output and affecting recreation. My rough calculation suggestsย Lake Meadโ€™s surface level will drop from the current 1,060 feet to about 1,030 feet, which would be lower even than in 2022. The BoR has suggested it will โ€œdefendโ€ a level of 1,000 feet. That would almost certainly lead to Lower Basin shortages.
Itโ€™s still a long ways out, but for now the NOAA is calling for above average precipitation in the Southwest later this summer.
A super El Niรฑo appears to be forming, but the effects in the Upper Colorado River Basin are especially hard to predict because it sits right in between the โ€œwarmer, drierโ€ and the โ€œwetter, colderโ€ zones, meaning it could go either way. Source: NOAA.

There is potentially good news on the horizon. Conditions are ripening up for a โ€œsuperโ€ El Niรฑo to begin forming this summer. Itโ€™s difficult to predict how that will affect the Upper Colorado River Basin, but for now, forecasts are calling for a strong monsoon in the Southwest, beginning in July. That probably would not do much to bring up Lake Powellโ€™s levels, but it would provide relief to the many farmers who are almost certain to lose irrigation relatively early this summer and may help keep late-summer megafires at bay. And, you never know, El Niรฑo might just bring a monster winter just when we need it most.


A Colorado River glossary and primer — Jonathan P. Thompson


1 *The forecasts are for the โ€œunregulated flow,โ€ which means that it is an estimate of what the flow would be without upstream dams holding water back. This is not the same as โ€œnatural flowโ€ which is a calculation of what the flow would be without upstream human consumptive use, dams, or diversions. In this case, actual inflow and unregulated inflow are almost the same.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

San Diego vs. Brawley: A 33-to-1 disparity in the cost of Colorado River water

Aerial view of San Diego's skyline featuring modern skyscrapers, a marina with docked boats, and a park along the waterfront.
San Diego’s Embarcadero Park. Photo provided by Storyblocks.

by Robert Marcos

There’s a 33-to-1 disparity in the cost of Colorado River water that’s being utilized by the residents of San Diego, versus the residents of Brawley – both of which are in Southern California and are just 97 miles away from each other. The disparity stems from differences in two primary areas: water rights and conveyance. San Diego’s municipal water rates – which are the fourth highest for a major city in the United States, are also inflated by the city’s massive investment in recycling and desalination.

Brawley’s Senior Water Rights

Residents of Brawley are served by the Imperial Irrigation District, which holds some of the most senior water rights on the Colorado River, in particular among major users. The IIDs rights predate the 1922 Colorado River Compact and fall under “present perfected rights” which make them an exceptionally high-priority. The IID holds rights to approximately 3.1 million acre-feet of Colorado River water annually, making them the largest single user of Colorado River water.1

It’s also worth noting that the IID pays nothing for the 3.1 million acre feet of water they’re entitled to. They do however pay multiple-millions of dollars for the operation and maintenance of California’s Imperial Dam, and the All-American Canal. Farmers and residents of the Imperial Valley pay only $20 per acre-foot for the water itself, since they only need to cover local delivery costs.2 Meanwhile San Diego, which does not have senior rights must buy water at market rates. Beginning in 2026 San Diego pays the Metropolitan Water District $671 per acre-foot of waterโ€”33 times what Brawley pays for the same water.

Infrastructure and Transportation

The city of Brawley is adjacent to the All-American Canal, so it requires a minimal amount of infrastructure to move the water into town. Whereas San Diego’s imported water utilizes two large canal systems: The Edmund G. Brown California Aqueduct from the State Water Project, and the Colorado Aqueduct that travels 242 miles from Lake Havasu in the east. San Diego – in the face of chronic drought and the increased stress of climate change on imported water sources, has made long-term commitments to making water conservation a permanent way of life. Historically dependent on importing up to 90% of its water from the Colorado River and Northern California, the region is now aggressively diversifying its water portfolio to ensure sustainability: aiming to reduce demand through mandated restrictions, turf replacement programs, and widespread public education.

San Diego is preparing for a drier future

San Diego has launched massive and innovative infrastructure projects, most notably the “Pure Water San Diego” program which aims to produce nearly half of the city’s water locally by 2035, with the use of advanced water purification technology that will convert recycled wastewater into high-quality drinking water.

In 2015 the region pioneered the use of desalination with the Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant, which is the largest desalination plant in the United States. The plant produces up to 54 million gallons of high-quality drinking water per day, which is about 10% of the water San Diego needs, at a cost of about $3,800 per acre foot.

But the stability that these projects promise comes at a high price. Residents who were already frustrated with high energy bills now face skyrocketing water bills too. Water rates in San Diego have seen steep increases, with projections showing a 14.7% hike in 2026, followed by another 14.5% in 2027. These are largely to pay for the Pure Water program in addition to higher costs for imported water. Residents and critics have expressed frustration that water rates could rise by 44% over four years, causing many to question the rising cost of living in the region.

Aspinall Unit operations meeting date has changed to Monday, April 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM #GunnisonRiver #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Crystal Dam, part of the Colorado River Storage Project, Aspinall Unit. Credit Reclamation.

From email from Reclamation (Andrew P. Limbach):

April 14, 2026

Meeting date changed to Monday, April 20th, 2026 at 1:00 pm. 

In an effort to better coordinate with the upper initial unit work groups and ongoing DROA discussions, the upcoming Aspinall Unit Coordination Meeting for the Aspinall Unit & Gunnison River has been changed to Monday, April 20th, 2026 at 1:00 pm. Sorry for the short notice and any inconvenience this may cause. 

This meeting will still be held virtually via Microsoft Teams. There will not be an in-person meeting location for this meeting. The link to the Teams meeting is below.

Contact Andrew Limbach (alimbach@usbr.gov or 970-248-0644) for more information regarding Aspinall operations or the Operation Group meeting.

Map of the Gunnison River drainage basin in Colorado, USA. Made using public domain USGS data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=69257550

#Denver Board of Water Commissioners approves temporary drought pricing as part of Stage 1 #drought response — DenverWater.org #SouthPlatteRiver #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the Denver Water website:

April 8, 2026

Lea este artรญculo en espaรฑol.

Denver Waterโ€™s collection and service areas continue to face severe drought conditions, with historically low snowpack and concerns about the diminished spring runoff that will be available to meet customerโ€™s water needs in the future.ย 

As a result, at its meeting today, the Denver Board of Water Commissioners adopted a resolution approving the implementation of temporary drought pricing on outdoor water use. The drought pricing will apply starting with May water use (reflected in June bills) and will be in effect through April 30, 2027, or until further action by the board.

Under the temporary drought pricing, residential customers will see a drought charge on Tier 2 water use of $1.10 per 1,000 gallons. Tier 3 will have a drought charge of $2.20 per 1,000 gallons. The temporary drought charges will be added on top of the customerโ€™s existing 2026 water rates.

Tier 1, which covers essential indoor water use, is exempt from drought pricing.

โ€œImplementing temporary drought pricing is not a step we take lightly. It is one of many tools Denver Water has available โ€” when needed โ€” to respond to drought conditions, encourage customers to conserve our water supply, and ensure our ongoing ability to operate and maintain the system that delivers clean, safe water to 1.5 million people,โ€ said Alan Salazar, Denver Waterโ€™s CEO/Manager.ย 

โ€œDrought charges signal to our customers the premium value of water in a drought, while exempting essential indoor water use. We havenโ€™t needed to use this tool in more than 20 years โ€” since the historic drought of 2002-04 โ€” and conditions surrounding this yearโ€™s snowpack and potential runoff are shaping up to rival, and possibly be worse than, those years,โ€ Salazar said.

Please keep sprinklers OFF until mid-to-late May, or later if it rains, to help stretch the water supplies we have. Hand water trees and shrubs if needed. Itโ€™s a drought. Use Only What You Need. Photo credit: Denver Water.

Under the temporary drought pricing approved by the board, for Denver Water residential customers in Denver and the suburbs:

  • e first tier will be exempt from the temporary drought charge.ย This tier is charged at the lowest rate and covers essential indoor water use for bathing, cooking and flushing toilets. Each customer has their individual first tier determined by the average of their monthly water use as listed on bills that arrive in January, February and March โ€” when there is very little or no outdoor watering.
  • The second tier will have a temporary drought charge of $1.10 per 1,000 gallons added on top of their 2026 water rates.ย This tier is for water consumption, typically used for outdoor watering, that is above the customerโ€™s first tier and up to 15,000 gallons of water per month. Water use in this tier is considered to be an efficient use of water outdoors.
  • The third tier will have a temporary drought charge of $2.20 per 1,000 gallons of water added on top of their 2026 water rates.ย Tier 3 is for water use above the second tier each month. It is priced at the highest level to signal potentially excessive water use and encourage conservation efforts by larger-lot customers.

The boardโ€™s decision to impose temporary drought charges on outdoor water use follows its March 25 declaration of Stage 1 drought. The declaration seeks a 20% reduction in water use effective immediately, with the goal of preserving water supplies and to help avoid the need for Denver Water to take further actions later this summer if conditions donโ€™t improve.ย Read the March 25, 2026, drought declaration.

The snowpack, which supplies the water Denver Water captures, stores, treats and delivers to customers, isย at historically low levelsย despite recent storms that brought some much-needed precipitation to the mountains and city last week.

Itโ€™s a drought. Image credit: Denver Water.

โ€œWe welcome the storms that do come, while knowing that this yearโ€™s snowpack is at historically low levels and hopes for a Miracle May snowstorm are dimming. And Denver Water has made a number of tools available to help customers reduce their water use โ€” whether itโ€™s a normal year or a drought year. We encourage our customers to take steps to conserve water for this drought and be better prepared to manage through future dry times,โ€ Greg Fisher, Denver Waterโ€™s manager of demand planning and efficiency.

Denver Waterโ€™s temporary drought pricing charges a premium for outdoor water use and covers several classes of customers, including residential, large irrigation, wholesale and raw water customers. (See the chart at the bottom of this story for additional information on nonresidential customers.)

An individual residential customerโ€™s monthly water bill will vary depending on where they live in Denver Waterโ€™s service area (in Denver or in one of the utility’s suburban distributor districts) and how much water they use. Drought charges are expected to incentivize customers to reduce outdoor water use.

The following two charts illustrate the potential impact of the temporary drought charges on an annual water bill for residential customers living inside the city of Denver and, below that, in a Total Service suburban distributor district.

Examples of the impact of temporary drought charges on an annual water bill for Denver Water customers living inside Denver. In this example, “super conservers” will see their bills increase by roughly $7 annually. High users who do not conserve will see their bills increase by roughly $76 in one year. Individual bills will vary. Image credit: Denver Water.

In these charts, the categories are:

  • โ€œSuper conserverโ€:ย A customer who has very little outdoor water use, maybe only watering trees and shrubs throughout the year.
  • โ€œGood conserverโ€:ย An average customer who reduces their annual water use by 20%, from 104,000 gallons (the average use by residential customers in an average year) to 82,000 gallons.
  • โ€œNon-conserverโ€:ย An average Denver Water residential customer who uses 104,000 gallons of water over the course of the year (the average use by residential customers in an average year) and doesnโ€™t respond to Denver Waterโ€™s call to reduce water use by 20%.
  • โ€œHigh userโ€:ย A customer in the top 25% of residential water users.ย 

The following chart illustrates temporary drought charges impacts for residential customers who live in one of Denver Waterโ€™s Total Service distributor districts in the suburbs. (Learn more about Denver Waterโ€™s suburban customers.)ย 

Examples of the impact of the temporary drought charges on an annual water bill for Denver Water customers living in one of Denver Waterโ€™s Total Service suburban distributor districts. “Super conservers” will see their bills increase by roughly $8 annually. High users who do not conserve will see their bills increase by roughly $76 in one year. Individual bills will vary. Image credit: Denver Water.

โ€œThis is not Denver Waterโ€™s first drought. We know our customers strive to be efficient in their water use, and we know we are asking them to use less to stretch the water supplies we have in this drought. We also know that success in reducing water use will result in reduced revenue for our organization. We have tools to address reduced revenue and ensure the organization maintains its financial foundation for when this drought is over,โ€ said Angela Bricmont, Denver Waterโ€™s chief financial officer.

If customers comply with Denver Waterโ€™s request to reduce water use by 20%, the utility estimates 2026 revenue to fall by a commensurate amount. While drought pricing can offset a portion of that reduction, the utility will rely on cash reserves and budget reductions to cover the majority of the gap.ย 

Denver Water hasย proactively reduced its spending, taking steps that include enacting a hiring freeze and reviewing maintenance and other projects to see which ones could be deferred.

Now is the time to replace non-native plants with with drought-tolerant plants. Photo credit: Denver Water

To help customers Use Only What They Need indoors and outdoors, Denver Water offers a range of tools, including:ย 

Additional information and tips are available on ourย conservation website.

Temporary drought charges for nonresidential customers:

Navajo Reservoir Spring Operations meeting Tuesday April 21, 2026ย from 1-3pm — Reclamation

Aerial image of entrenched meanders of the San Juan River within Goosenecks State Park. Located in San Juan County, southeastern Utah (U.S.). Credits Constructed from county topographic map DRG mosaic for San Juan County from USDA/NRCS – National Cartography & Geospatial Center using Global Mapper 12.0 and Adobe Illustrator. Latitude 33ยฐ 31′ 49.52″ N., Longitude 111ยฐ 37′ 48.02″ W. USDA/FSA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

From email from Reclamation :

April 14, 2026

Reminder Navajo Reservoir Spring Operations MTG Tuesday April 21stย from 1-3pm. The meeting will be entirely virtual; members of this list should have received a Teams invite. If you did not and would like to attend email cfelletter@usbr.govย for a meeting invite.ย 

Reclamation conducts Public Operations Meetings three times per year to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies along with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. 

Conservation isnโ€™t enough for the #ColoradoRiverโ€™s drier future, #Arizona State University water expert says — KJZZ.org #COriver #aridification

Phoenix had native water, but expansive growth, among the fastest in the nation, has been enabled by imported Colorado River water since the 1990s. Photo/Allen Best

Click the link to read the article on the KJZZ website (Alex Hager). Here’s an excerpt:

April 13, 2025

A new article by an Arizona State University water expert argues that existing conservation measures are a step in the right direction, but may not be effective enough in the face of climate change. Dave White, director of ASUโ€™s Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation, says city leaders around the Colorado River basin need to think bigger to plan for a future in which the river has less water to go around.

โ€œWe have to think about a reset, a recalibration,โ€ White told KJZZ, โ€œto have an economy and a lifestyle in the southwest that lives within the means of the new normal of water availability in the Colorado River.โ€

White, alongside The Pennsylvania State Universityโ€™s Renee Obringer, wrote that cities such as Phoenix, Denver and Las Vegas have made major strides in saving water among homes and businesses. In Phoenix, conservation programs led to a 20% reduction in water use over 20 years, while the population grew by about 40%…Even under aggressive conservation measures, though, theย new reportย explains that demand management practices โ€œwonโ€™t be able to keep upโ€ with the kind of hot, dry conditions that fueled the current 26-year megadrought and will likely continue for years in the future…New technologies will likely be a big part of citiesโ€™ drought response going forward. White pointed to the need forย water reuse programs,ย desalination facilitiesย and reductions to the amount of water consumed for electricity generation. While Central Arizona cities are already looking to some of those technologies, White said changes may be needed sooner than they can be deployed.

Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall

Trump cancels #PecosRiver mining ban process: Hottest March on record; Healing the earth is hard — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org)ย 

The Atlas Uranium Mill near Moab as it appeared in May of 1972. Source: DOCUMERICA: The Environmental Protection Agency’s Program to Photographically Document Subjects of Environmental Concern.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

April 10, 2026

โ›๏ธ Mining Monitor โ›๏ธ

The Trump administration has formally cancelled the proposed withdrawal of more than 160,000 acres in the Upper Pecos River Watershed from new mining claims and mineral leasing.

Prompted by local advocacy and New Mexicoโ€™s congressional delegation, the Biden administration began the process of protecting the watershed and surrounding mountains east of Santa Fe in 2024. But the Trump administration nipped the process in the bud shortly after taking office by cancelling scheduled public meetings. Now it hasย officially endedย the withdrawal.

For the past several years, Comexico LLC, a subsidiary of Australia-basedย New World Resources, has been working its way through the permitting process to do exploratory drilling at what it calls its Tererro mining project onย more than 200 active mining claimsย in the watershed. It has met withย stiff resistanceย from locals and regional advocacy groups, partly because mining has a dark history in the Pecos River watershed. In 1991, a big spring runoff washed contaminated mine and mill waste from a long-defunct mine into the upper Pecos River,ย killing as many as 100,000 trout. That prompted a multi-year cleanup of various mining sites.

The withdrawal wouldnโ€™t have stopped the project outright, because it doesnโ€™t affect existing, active, valid claims. Yet it would have stopped the company from staking more claims and would make it more difficult to develop the existing ones (especially if theyย havenโ€™t established validity).


I have a saying I coined while writingย River of Lost Soulsย that goes like this:ย Mining is hard. Putting the earth back together again afterwards is a hell of a lot harder.ย Thatโ€™s probably especially true when it comes to mining and milling uranium, given that along with all the other nasty byproducts of mining, it also leaves behind radioactive material. The point was recently driven home by two events:

  • Moab officialsย celebrated the removal of 16 million tons of uranium tailingsย from the Atlas mill site alongside the Colorado River following a decades-long cleanup effort. Remediation work continues.ย 
  • Meanwhile, over at the cleaned up Durango uranium mill site (now a dog park), the Department of Energyโ€™s most recentย verification monitoring reportย finds that natural uranium flushing in the groundwater beneath the site is happening slower than expected. Thereโ€™s no reason for concern at this point: Researchers are still confident that uranium concentrations will drop below the compliance goal within the allotted 100-year time period.

I mention it here because of the time-scale involved: The Atlas mill in Moab stopped operating more than 40 years ago, and the cleanup has dragged on for close to two decades. The Durango mill shut down for good in 1963; the massive, years-long, multi-million-dollar cleanup was completed in 1991. And researchers expect it to take another 65 years for the groundwater contamination to finally get back to acceptable levels.ย 

Itโ€™s just something to keep in mind when considering new uranium mines and mills.


The rise of the Land-healing Industry — Jonathan P. Thompson


The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson

๐ŸŸย Colorado River Chroniclesย ๐Ÿ’ง

One of the more frustrating things about the Colorado River crisis is that the federal government, which controls the big dams and most of the extensive plumbing system on the river, has hardly given even a clue as to what it might do when Glen Canyon Dam reaches the critical minimum power pool mark as early as this summer.

Will they shut down the hydropower turbines and route all releases through the river outlets, possibly compromising the outlet tubesโ€™ โ€” and the damโ€™s โ€” structural integrity? Will they โ€œdefendโ€ minimum power pool by cutting back releases, thereby putting the Upper Basin in violation of the Colorado River Compact? Or will they drain Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to maintain minimum power pool while also keeping releases at a level that will keep Lake Mead from dropping too precipitously? Maybe theyโ€™ll use the bunker-busting bombs intended for Iran to very quickly blast bypass tunnels through the canyon walls to render the dam obsolete?

The answer is still a mystery, but Interior Secretary Doug Burgum finally hinted coyly about the governmentโ€™s potential approach (Interior oversees the Bureau of Reclamation, which runs most dams). Theย Arizona Starโ€™s venerable environmental reporterย Tony Davis reportsย that Burgum told a Tucson roundtable this week:

Okay, I donโ€™t know what that means, exactly, but at least theyโ€™re planning to doย something. The last statement hints at their intent to defend the minimum power pool on Glen Canyon Dam (lest theyโ€™ll lose power generation altogether). Weโ€™ll probably learn more during the Glen Canyon Monthly Operations Call in the coming week or two. So stay tuned.

As long as weโ€™re on the subject of the federal government doing something about the Colorado River, whenโ€™s Trump going to order his people to open the giant faucet up in Canada and send water gushing down to the Southwest?


Trump’s giant faucet: And the tragic Myth of More — Jonathan P. Thompson

๐Ÿคฏ Annals of Inanity ๐Ÿคก


๐Ÿฅต Aridification Watch ๐Ÿซ

This wonโ€™t come as a surprise to many people, but itโ€™s now official: March 2026 was the hottest March on record by a lot in the Southwest and beyond. The Upper Colorado River Basinโ€™s average temperature for the month was 46.5ยฐ F, or more than 13ยฐ higher than the 1895-2026 median. The graph below makes it very clear that the place has been getting hotter over the past fifty years, with the only real break coming in March 2023, when snow was piling up in the mountains.

March 2026 was the hottest March since 1895 by far in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Source: NOAA.

The March scorcher followed the warmest winter and first half of the water year (Oct-March) for most of the West.

The result is clear: Even though precipitation accumulation wasnโ€™t terribly far below normal, the snowpack was. The April 1 snowpack across Colorado was at a record low level, according to this yearโ€™s snow course, which is done by manual measurement and so goes back much farther than SNOTEL measurements.

The April 1 snowpack this year was lower than in 1977, 1981, and 2002, the worst winters of the last nine decades, at least. Source: Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies and NRCS.

Early April storms have helped keep the snow around a bit longer in the mountains, but has done little to bolster the snowpack. Itโ€™s still at historically low levels. 

๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ Messing with Maps ๐Ÿงญ

Maybe weโ€™ll have a really wet spring and summer. If not, well, this is what the National Interagency Fire Center says we can expect. Not great.

San Diego: America’s 4th most expensive municipal water

Aerial view of a modern industrial facility located near a body of water, with a surrounding landscape featuring greenery and electrical infrastructure in the background.
The Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant in San Diego’s North County. Photo by Robert Marcos.

by Robert Marcos

Residents in the San Diego region currently pay between $3,707 and $5,179 per acre-foot of water1, making San Diego’s municipal water the fourth most expensive in America – after San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland.2

For years San Diego relied almost entirely on a single source of municipal water: the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. However, a severe drought in the early 1990s exposed the region’s vulnerability. This crisis sparked a multi-decade strategy by the San Diego County Water Authority to diversify its portfolio, effectively trading lower costs for long-term supply reliability.3

To break its dependence on Los Angeles, San Diego secured its own water rights through massive, high-cost agreements. This included a historic 2003 deal with the Imperial Irrigation District in the Imperial Valley, where the city pays farmers to conserve water and send it west. This “ag-to-urban” transfer, combined with paying to line the All-American Canal to prevent seepage, provided a secure but significantly more expensive supply than traditional imported water.4

The region further increased costs by investing in “drought-proof” technology, most notably the Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant, which opened in 2015. While it provides about 10% of the region’s water, it is the most expensive source in the portfolio, costing roughly $2,700 per acre-footโ€”far higher than imported Colorado River water. San Diego is also currently building the multi-billion dollar Pure Water recycling system to turn wastewater into drinking water, adding another layer of heavy infrastructure debt to monthly bills.5

Paradoxically, San Diegans’ success in water conservation has also contributed to rising rates. Because the Water Authority built massive infrastructure based on much higher population and demand projections, it must now spread the fixed costs of those debts and maintenance across fewer gallons of water sold. When residents use less water, the price per gallon must increase to cover the billions in outstanding loans for dams, pipelines, and treatment plants.6

Today the cumulative effect of these investments has made San Diego’s water rates among the highest in the country, with total bills projected to rise over 60% by 2029. While other California cities face potential shortages during droughts, San Diego often has a surplus; however, the cost of that security is borne entirely by local ratepayers through a complex “chain reaction” of wholesale price hikes and debt service.7

How #Colorado rafting outfitters plan to operate during extreme drought: โ€˜Itโ€™s going to be a lower-water year, but you can still have fun with your family and friends on the river.โ€™ — The #Denver Post

Uncompahgre River Valley looking south

Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (John Meyer). Here’s an excerpt:

April 13, 2026

Outfitters insist there will be a rafting season this year, but the same lack of snowfall that negatively affected ski resorts over the winter โ€” forcing many to open late and close early โ€” will also hurt rafting since there has been less snow to melt. That, along with ongoing drought, means the low-water conditions typically found in late summer may come much earlier than usual. To make it work, river guides plan to adjust in ways they hope will help them make the best of what they have.

โ€œThe waterโ€™s not going to get to be high, boat-flipping water,โ€ said David Costlow, executive director of the Colorado River Outfitters Association. โ€œUsually, we try to get to the middle of July before we start entering low water. It will probably be early this year. It could be the end of June, first of July, but it depends on the next few weeks…

The winter snowpack is currently well below average across the state; in fact,ย it is about a quarter of what Colorado usually has at this time of year, according to the USDA National Water and Climate Center. Thatโ€™s the lowest since record-keeping began in 1941. Meanwhile, warm spring temperatures triggered a much earlier runoff than normal. Outfitters are hoping spring rains will improve the situation, but three-month weather projections from the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service are calling for above-normal temperatures and below-normal moisture through June. March is normally Coloradoโ€™s snowiest month, so outfitters were hoping for a boost last month. It didnโ€™t come.

Rafting on Clear Creek is almost entirely dependent on rainfall during the season, even in good snow years, because itโ€™s situated in a relatively small drainage. Outfitters there are hoping Coloradoโ€™s monsoon season, typically mid-July through August, delivers this year…he Upper Colorado draws on runoff from a much larger basin that includes the west side of Rocky Mountain National Park and the Never Summer Range. Reservoirs in that drainage include Grand Lake, and flows are controlled by water managers. Rafting on the Upper Colorado is concentrated west of Kremmling…On the Poudre, Johnson said his company is focused on providing quality experiences for as long as there is enough water to do so.

Recreational vehicle: Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism

โ€˜Weโ€™ve never seen a year like thisโ€™: Worst drought conditions on record predicted for 2026 — The #GrandJunction Daily Sentinel #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Juniata Reservoir, located near Grand Mesa, is where the city of Grand Junction stores water coming off Grand Mesa in the Kannah Creek watershed. That water flows down Kannah Creek and eventually into the taps of Grand Junction residents. Photo courtesy of City of Grand Junction

Click the link to read the article on The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel website (Dan West). Here’s an excerpt:

April 11, 2026

Local water utilities are raising the alarm about the severe drought Mesa County is in and are asking users to voluntarily limit their usage now to conserve water. At a Thursday press conference in Palisade, representatives from the areaโ€™s water utilities and the National Weather Service described the situation in stark terms. Grand Junction Public Utilities Director Randi Kim said the winter snowpack is delivering far less water than normal and spring runoff began more than a month early.

โ€œThis year in March, our snow survey indicated that our snowpack across the cityโ€™s Kannah Creek watershed was at 41% measured as snow water equivalent over the 35-year historical average,โ€ Kim said. โ€œDue to warm weather conditions, runoff in Kannah Creek started on March 26, which is about five to six weeks earlier than normal.โ€

In response, Kim asked Grand Junctionโ€™s water users to help conserve water now. Representatives from Ute Water suggested limiting outdoor watering as an important step in conserving water.

โ€œWith Grand Junction currently in D3 extreme drought, the city is asking all of our customers to take actions to conserve water,โ€ Kim said. โ€œParticipating now in water conservation actions will help preserve the cityโ€™s water supply should that drought persist through the summer and necessitate the city rely upon our stored water rather than direct flows from Kannah Creek.โ€

[…]

Kim said the cityโ€™s Grand Mesa reservoirs are full and it has 1.75 years of water in storage, so it is not facing the prospect of running out of water this year…Data on the Colorado River Basin goes back 130 years. Experts say 2026 will be worse than any of those, likely by a longshot…A perfect storm of factors are behind those concerns.

Erin Walter, service hydrologist for the National Weather Service, said at the Thursday press conference that the record low snowpack has combined with record warm weather to make for especially challenging conditions. In March alone, Walter said Grand Junction saw eight consecutive days of record warm temperatures. That warm weather is persisting into April, Walter said, and forecasts predict it will continue through June. Those conditions could result in the worst drought on record…n reservoirs essential to the Western Slope, that means less water to work with. Green Mountain Reservoir, which includes the Historic User Pool that helps supply numerous farmers, is not expected to fill this year, according to Flinker. Meanwhile Blue Mesa Reservoir, which requires 419,000 acre-feet to fill and supplies water to the Gunnison River before it joins the Colorado River in Grand Junction, is forecast to get only around 200,000 acre-feet this year.

West Drought Monitor map April 7, 2026.

Local rivers likely reached peak flow in March: Forecasts show little relief from high temperatures and low precipitation as reservoir operators make plans for release of irrigation water — Heather Dutton (AlamosaCitizen.com) #RioGrande #snowpack #runoff

Rio Grande. Credit: The Citizen

Click the link to read the article on the Alamosa Citizen website (Heather Dutton):

April 13, 2026

Water Managers anticipate flows in the San Luis Valleyโ€™s rivers and creeks will be very low in spring and summer 2026. 

The Colorado Division of Water Resources Division 3 Engineerโ€™s April 6 10-day report forecasted the total annual flow of the Rio Grande at the Del Norte gage will be 270,000 acre-feet, which is 42 percent of the long-term average. For reference, flows of the Rio Grande at Del Norte in 2018 totaled 280,400 acre-feet. The forecasted flow of the Conejos River system is 110,000 acre-feet, which is 37 percent of the long-term average. The snow water equivalent on April 9 for the Upper Rio Grande Basin was 12 percent of the median for 1991-2020. 

The National Weather Service is forecasting hot temperatures along with below average precipitation into the summer. The irrigation season began on March 23 on the Rio Grande and March 16 on the Conejos River. As such, on-stream reservoirs are required to pass all inflows to satisfy the needs of downstream senior water rights holders. Given the low amount of snow, the exceptionally warm spring temperatures, and the anticipated summer drought conditions, it is possible that local rivers reached peak flow in March. 


Rio Grande operations

The operators of reservoirs on the Rio Grande will time their releases of irrigation water to coincide with the canals being in priority to allow water to reach farmers. It is anticipated that many of the canals will only be in priority to divert water for a short time window, in some cases only days or weeks. As such, releases of irrigation water will begin in the next week. 

The Santa Maria Reservoir Company will begin releasing stored irrigation water into North Clear Creek on April 14 at a rate of 200-300 cfs for 10 days. Additional releases will continue as farmers call for water. Rio Grande Reservoir will also begin releasing stored irrigation water into the Rio Grande on April 14 for approximately 20 days. The rate of the release will start at 100-150 cfs and increase up to 350-450 cfs. After deliveries are complete, releases will be limited to the natural inflows. As such, boatable flows on the Rio Grande may diminish as early as mid-May.

Entities including Colorado Parks and Wildlife, the San Luis Valley Water Conservancy District, and the Rio Grande Water Conservation District store water in reservoirs in the Upper Rio Grande Basin and call for releases for their operations in accordance with their water rights decrees. 

Where possible, releases by these organizations will be prioritized during hot periods to supplement the natural flow of the Rio Grande and the South Fork of the Rio Grande to reduce high water temperatures to protect the health of fish. Unfortunately, there may not be sufficient water to keep temperatures below thresholds for responsible fishing. As such, anglers are encouraged to check temperature gages and not engage in catch and release fishing if water temperatures reach exceed 70 degrees. Temperature is measured at the 30 Mile Bridge, Wagon Wheel Gap, Del Norte, and South Fork Gages and can be viewed at the Colorado Division of Water Resourcesโ€™ website (dwr.state.co.us). [ed. emphasis mine]


Platoro Reservoir. Photo credit: Rio de la Vista

Conejos River operations

Platoro Reservoir is passing inflows, which were 10 times higher than average for much of March because of rapid snowmelt. The Conejos Water Conservancy District allocated 6,500 acre-feet of project water to the irrigators. Unfortunately, river flows are currently too low to carry that water to farmersโ€™ headgates and water will not be released unless river flows improve. It is likely that the river will have dry up points below Highway 285. Anglers are encouraged to check temperature gages below Platoro Reservoir and near Mogote before engaging in catch and release fishing.


Links to Stream Gages with Temperature Measurements:

Rio Grande at Thirty Mile Bridge (RIOMILCO):

https://dwr.state.co.us/Tools/Stations/RIOMILCO?params=DISCHRG,WATTEMP

Rio Grande at Wagon Wheel Gap (RIOWAGCO):

https://dwr.state.co.us/Tools/Stations/RIOWAGCO?params=DISCHRG,WATTEMP

Rio Grande at Del Norte (RIODELCO):

https://dwr.state.co.us/Tools/Stations/RIODELCO?params=DISCHRG,WATTEMP

South Fork of the Rio Grande at South Fork (RIOSFKCO):

https://dwr.state.co.us/Tools/Stations/RIOSFKCO?params=DISCHRG,WATTEMP

Conejos River Below Platoro Reservoir (CONPLACO):

https://dwr.state.co.us/Tools/Stations/CONPLACO?params=DISCHRG,WATTEMP

Conejos River Near Mogote:

https://dwr.state.co.us/Tools/Stations/CONMOGCO?params=DISCHRG,WATTEMP


Heather Dutton

Heather Dutton is district manager for the San Luis Valley Water Conservancy District, which provides leadership to the San Luis Valley water community, a forum for learning and development, and the service of well augmentation in five counties in the San Luis Valley. More by Heather Dutton

Assessing the U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in March 2026: Warmest March on Record for the Contiguous U.S. — NOAA

Sunset from the western shore of Antelope Island State Park, Great Salt Lake, Utah, United States.. Sunset viewed from White Rock Bay, on the western shore of Antelope Island. Carrington Island is visible in the distance. By Ccmdav – Own work, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2032320

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:

April 8, 2026

Key Takeaways:

  • Warmest March:ย The contiguous U.S. (CONUS) average temperature was 9.4ยฐF above the 20th-century average, making March 2026 the warmest March in the 132-year record.
  • Prolonged warmth:ย The April 2025โ€“March 2026 period now stands as the warmest 12-month span ever recorded for the CONUS (since 1895).
  • Record daily heat:ย 1,432 countiesโ€”over half the CONUS area and one-third of the populationโ€”observed their single warmest March day on record (1950โ€“present).
Map of the U.S. Maximum Temperature Monthly Records in March 2026.
  • Record-dry year to date:ย The Januaryโ€“March period was the driest on record for the CONUSโ€”less than 70% of averageโ€”breaking the previous record set in 1910.
  • Notable drought footprint:ย Dry conditions expanded drought to nearly 60 percent of the CONUSโ€”the largest extent of drought since November 2022.
  • Cold in Alaska:ย Alaska had its fourth-coldest March on record (since 1925) and the coldest since 2007.
Map of the U.S. notable weather and climate events in March 2026.

Other Highlights:

Temperature

The CONUS average temperature in March was 50.85ยฐF, 9.35ยฐF above the 20th-century average, marking the first time any monthโ€™s average has exceeded 9ยฐF above that baseline. Maximum daytime temperatures were especially high, averaging 11.4ยฐF above the March average and 0.9ยฐF above the April long-term average.

Much of the country south of the far northern tier, from the Pacific to the Atlantic, experienced much-above-average temperatures. A broad region spanning the central Pacific Coast, Great Basin, Southwest, and parts of the Rockies and southern Plains observed record warmth, highlighting the widespread extent of the monthโ€™s exceptional temperatures.

Ten states recorded their warmest March on record: Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Across all of these states, average temperatures exceeded their respective April averages, with California also eclipsing its average May temperature by 0.7ยฐF.

At the county level, more than 500 countiesโ€”covering over one-quarter of the CONUS and affecting an estimated 79 million peopleโ€”recorded their warmest March on record, reflecting the broad geographic footprint of the monthโ€™s record warmth.

Hawaiโ€˜iโ€™s statewide average temperature was 65.0ยฐF, 1.5ยฐF above the 1991โ€“2020 average, ranking as the fifth-warmest March in the 36-year record. Daytime temperatures were near average, but statewide average minimum temperatures stood out at 59.2ยฐFโ€”the warmest March nighttime temperatures on record (1991โ€“present), more than 1ยฐF above the previous record set in 2006.

In contrast, Alaskaโ€™s statewide average temperature was 0.6ยฐF, 10.2ยฐF below the 1925โ€“2000 average. While the North Slope remained near average, much of the state experienced much-below-average temperatures, with parts of the southeast interior, southern coast and panhandle recording record-cold conditions. Minimum temperatures were especially notable, ranking as the third-coldest March on record and the coldest since 1972.

Precipitationย 

The average precipitation total for the CONUS in March was 1.83 inches, 0.68 inch below the 20th-century average, ranking as the eighth-driest March in the 132-year record. Combined with January and February deficits, this period marks the driest first three months of any year on record for the CONUS.

March 2026 U.S. Total Precipitation Percentiles.

March precipitation was much below average across much of the West, Southwest, portions of the Plains, Deep South and Southeast. In contrast, above-average precipitation totals fell across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, as well as across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

In total, nine states across the Lower-48 ranked among their 10-driest Marches. California received less than a quarter-inch of precipitation statewideโ€”less than 10% of its 20th-century March average and the lowest March total in the 132-year record. Colorado and New Mexico each tied their second-driest March on record, while North and South Carolina each experienced one of their five-driest Marches. In contrast, Michigan received nearly twice its average March precipitationโ€”its third-highest March total on record.

Simultaneously hot and dry conditions affected 12 states, where much-above-average temperatures occurred alongside much-below-average precipitation, with potential impacts on snowpack and water resources in the coming months. California exemplified these extremes, recording both its warmest and driest March on record.

Precipitation across Hawaiโ€˜i was much above average for the month, with many areasโ€”including large portions of the Big Island, Maui, Molokaโ€˜i and Oโ€˜ahuโ€”experiencing their wettest March on record (since 1991). This exceptional wetness was driven by back-to-back Kona low systems mid-month that triggered widespread major flooding and landslides across the island chain.

Alaskaโ€™s statewide precipitation was much lower than average, especially over portions of the Southwest, the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians. However, the cold air over mainland Alaska brought above-average snowfall to much of Southeast Alaska, with several locations recording their highest March totals in more than a decade.

US Drought Monitor map April 7, 2026.

Drought

According to the March 31ย U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 59.9% of the CONUS was in drought, an increase of about 5.0% from the beginning of the month. Drought conditions persisted or intensified across much of the interior West, the Plains, Mississippi Valley, South and Southeast, with notable degradation across the Rockies and central Plains. In contrast, drought contracted or eased across portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

Monthly Outlook

Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the CONUS for April, with the highest probabilities centered over the Great Basin, Four Corners region and parts of the Southeast. Above-average precipitation is favored for a corridor stretching from the southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into the Northeast, while drier-than-average conditions are forecast for the West and parts of the central Rockies and Southeast. Above-average temperatures and precipitation are indicated for northern and western parts of Alaska. Visit the Climate Prediction Centerโ€™sย Official 30-Day Forecastsfor more details.

Drought is expected to persist and expand across much of the interior West, Southwest, Rockies and High Plains, as well as parts of the South, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. However, some improvement or drought removal is forecast for parts of the southern Plains, Mississippi Valley and Northeast. Visit theย U.S. Monthly Drought Outlookย website for more details.

Significant wildland fire potential is above normal across portions of the Southwest, southern Plains and central High Plains and much of the Deep South and Southeast. For additional information on wildland fire potential, visit the National Interagency Fire Centerโ€™sย One-Month Wildland Fire Outlook.


For more detailed climate information, check out our comprehensive March 2026ย U.S. Climate Reportย scheduled for release on April 13, 2026. For additional information on the statistics provided here, visit theย Climate at a Glanceย andย National Mapsย webpages.

March heat wave fueled worst end-of-winter snowpack on record: #LakePowell could see just 22% of normal inflow — Heather Sackett (AspenJournalism.org) #YampaRiver #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

The Colorado River at Las Colonias Park in Grand Junction was running at about 350 cfs Wednesday. Streamflows are expected to be way below normal this spring; some may have already hit their peak for the year. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Los Colonias Park May 2023.

Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

April 8, 2026

Water managers are planning for an extremely dry summer as Colorado wraps up winter 2026 with the worst snowpack on record for early April.

The Colorado River basin has seen slightly drier water years, but never a hotter one in the era of modern record keeping. A March heatwave that broke records statewide fueled an early peak of the snowpack, followed by rapid melting. This was the warmest March in 132 years of record-keeping for Colorado โ€“ three to four degrees Fahrenheit warmer than any other March, according to the Colorado Climate Center

โ€œClimate change definitely raises the probability of heat waves significantly,โ€ said Peter Goble, assistant state climatologist at Colorado State University. โ€œThis heat wave was so far out of the range of what weโ€™ve seen in March before that I donโ€™t expect this to be the new normal, but it was certainly made to some degree more likely by climate change.โ€

The month of March decimated Coloradoโ€™s snowpack, which was thin to begin with, during a time when snowpack is usually still accumulating. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center put the March 1 snowpack above Lake Powell at 52% of median. One month later, the April 1 numbers showed snowpack had declined dramatically to 23% of median.

โ€œWhat snowpack was there was already among the lowest, if not the lowest on record, and it melted much more quickly than normal,โ€ Goble said. โ€œWe saw melt rates more characteristic of May or June in March.โ€

Early April status reports and forecasts are important because they provide a critical snapshot of assessing where things stand and how much water will be available for the summer. This week is typically when snowpack peaks for the year before it begins a gradual melt out. But snowpack in the Colorado River headwaters this year peaked nearly a month early on March 17 and now sits at just 27% of median. Snowpack in the Roaring Fork River basin is 26% of normal.

โ€œWeโ€™ve never seen anything like this in memory,โ€ said Raquel Flinker, director of interstate and regional water resources at the Colorado River Districtโ€™s State of the River meeting in Grand Junction Tuesday. โ€œIf thereโ€™s anything in your memory about a dry year that youโ€™ve seen, a warm year that youโ€™ve seen, 2026 is beyond all of that. Itโ€™s far beyond 2002, which has been the year we normally think of as the worst year in hydrology.โ€

The big question is whether that record-low snowpack will turn into record-low runoff. Forty million people in the American Southwest depend on water from the Colorado River, which comes from the melting annual snowpack. Some streams may have already peaked for the year, something that normally occurs in early June for Western Slope streams.

โ€œThe streamflows are going to be much below normal,โ€ Goble said. โ€œBut the lowest snowpack on record does not necessarily guarantee the lowest streamflow on record.

โ€In a Tuesday water supply briefing, hydrologist Cody Moser with the CBRFC said that the forecasted April through July inflow to Lake Powell this year is 1.4 million acre-feet, just 22% of normal and the third-worst on record. Thatโ€™s down from the March forecast, which predicted 2.3 million acre-feet of inflow. The benchmark for low Powell inflows is 2002, which saw just 964,000 acre-feet of water flow into the reservoir.

The streamflow forecast for the Colorado mainstem in Colorado (known as Division 5 by state water managers) is 38% of normal, according to the National Resources Conservation Service. The Yampa is at 36% of normal; Gunnison is 34% and the San Juan basin in the southwest corner of the state is forecast to have just 26% of normal streamflows this year.ย 

Yampa calls

Water managers around the state are preparing for an exceptionally dry summer. Some municipal water providers have already implemented outdoor watering restrictions, and the Colorado Division of Water Resources is alerting farmers and ranchers to the possibility of more calls this season. 

The Yampa River basin is poised to be one of the hardest hit this year. Mosher said on Tuesday that streamflows on the Yampa are forecasted to be close to the minimum on record.

โ€œThis forecast declined by 40% in the past month and here you see that huge melt off with our snowpack conditions,โ€ he said.

Yampa River Operations Coordinator for Division 6 Water Resources Brian Romig sent a March 28 email to all water users in the basin reminding them of how calls work. When an irrigator with a senior water right isnโ€™t getting all the water they are entitled to, they can place a call with state officials, who will then shut off upstream water users with junior water rights so the senior right can get its full amount of water. Under the cornerstone of Colorado water law, the oldest water rights get first use of the river.

The Yampa River was among the last to develop in the sparsely populated northwest corner of the state and it had never had a call until 2018. 

โ€œCall administration is a reality of our future,โ€ said Division Engineer Erin Light. โ€œI think itโ€™s very possible we are going to see calls and the sooner people start to understand what that looks like and become accustomed to it, the better.โ€

Light said she has been hearing from water users about how early they have had to turn their ditches on to irrigate their fields โ€“ some the weekend of March 21 โ€“ due to the meager snowpack and record-high temperatures. 

Light predicted that some ranchers wonโ€™t be able to grow all of the hay their animals need to feed them through next winter. 

โ€œRanchers are going to have some big decisions to make as far as: Will they buy hay or will they have to sell cows,โ€ she said. 

In recent years, the River District has leased water out of Elkhead Reservoir and released it during the irrigation season to boost flows for downstream ranchers and keep a call off the river. But Light says this approach doesnโ€™t help water users adapt to a future with less water. Once people know what to expect and how calls are administered, itโ€™s less of a big deal, she said. And as river flows continue to dwindle due to drought and climate change, learning how to manage inevitable scarcity has never been more important. 

โ€œI think itโ€™s a good thing for our water users to manage their water in such a way that they know in late August, they could be shut off,โ€ Light said. โ€œBut weโ€™re not giving that opportunity to the people on the Yampa River by trying to always keep the calls off.โ€

Yampa River Basin via Wikimedia.

Pitkin County moves forward with #CrystalRiver protection agreement — The #Aspen Times

Confluence of the Roaring Fork and Crystal rivers May 2015. Photo credit: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism

Click the link to read the article on The Aspen Times website (Colin Suszynski). Here’s an excerpt:

April 8, 2026

The Pitkin County Board of County Commissioners moved forward Wednesday withย an intergovernmental agreement that expresses commitmentย โ€œto protect the Crystal River from on-channel dams and transmountain diversions.โ€ย  The agreement will be between Pitkin County, Gunnison County, the town of Marble, the Colorado River Water Conservation District and the West Divide Water Conservancy District. This was an approval of the first of two readings. The Colorado River Water Conservation District have yet to bring this agreement to their boards but have previously expressed support for the initiative, according to the districtโ€™s staff. Gunnison County and the town of Marble will be considering it in upcoming meetings.ย 

โ€œIt would be an agreement that all the parties would oppose or not support any new dams on the main stem of the Crystal River, or any new trans-basin diversions out of the Crystal River,โ€ Pitkin County Deputy Attorney Anne Marie McPhee told commissioners on Wednesday. โ€œIt is trying to keep the water in the river as long as possible.โ€ย 

[…]

Despite moving the agreement forward after first reading, Commissioner Greg Poschman acknowledged that there has been concern around the agreementโ€™s lack of enforcement ability, due to the signing bodiesโ€™ ability to leave the agreement at will. Poschman referenced specific criticism vocalized by Bill Jochems, a Pitkin County Healthy Rivers and Streams Citizen Advisory board member and Crystal River advocate.ย 

โ€œThe expression from Mr. Jochems is, โ€˜itโ€™s a nothing burger,โ€™ right?โ€ Poschman said on Wednesday. โ€œItโ€™s the weakest of all possible protections for the Crystal. Is that what we want to do at this point?โ€

Commissioner Francie Jacober commented that, despite the potential weakness that Jochems and Poschman pointed out, it would still be symbolically important for the county to lend their support to the intergovernmental agreement…The county has beenย pursuingย a Wild and Scenic River designation for a portion of the Crystal River since the U.S. Forest Service found 39 miles of it eligible for the designation in 2002, according to county documents supporting Wednesdayโ€™s intergovernmental agreement. A Wild and Scenic designation could help with future conservation and preservation efforts.

Map of the Roaring Fork River drainage basin in western Colorado, USA. Made using USGS data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=69290878

The March 2026 Intermountain West briefing is hot off the presses from Western Water Assessment

Click the link to read the briefing on the Western Water Assessment website:

April 9, 2026 – CO, UT, WY

March weather conditions promoted rapid intensification of snow drought. Snowpack peaked three to nine weeks early and sits at record low levels at most locations in Colorado, Utah and much of Wyoming. Record low snowpack was driven by low March precipitation and record hot March temperatures. Consequently, drought conditions expanded to cover 93% of the region, and annual streamflow volume forecasts are much below normal with 22% of normal inflow forecasted for Lake Powell.

March precipitation was below average for nearly the entire region. Large areas of less than 50% of average March precipitation were observed in all three states with the least precipitation falling in eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Record low March precipitation was observed in Baca, Bent, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Las Animas, Prowers, and San Juan Counties in Colorado. Water year precipitation varied with above average precipitation in northwestern Wyoming, southern Colorado and southern Utah, while much of the remainder of the region received 50-90% of average water year precipitation.

An extreme and widespread heat wave hit the region during March, and temperatures were 9-12 degrees above average for much of the region. Record high March temperatures were observed at the majority of locations in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. All-time maximum March temperatures were set across the region with many locations recording higher temperatures than all-time April records.

April 1 SWE conditions were record-low for all regional river basins, except those in northwestern Wyoming. On a statewide basis, record-low snowpack was observed in Colorado (24% median), Utah (22% median), and Wyoming (47% median). Snowpack in many southern Colorado and southern Utah watersheds has melted up to 65 days early, including the Upper Arkansas, Upper Dolores, and Upper Gunnison River basins in Colorado and the Dirty Devil, Escalante, Price, and San Pitch River basins in Utah. Record heat and low precipitation in March caused regional snowpack to peak nearly one month early. Typically, on April 1, only three of 213 Snotel sites in Colorado and two of 179 sites in Utah are melted out completely. On April 1, 2026, 36% of Snotel sites in Colorado, 60% of sites in Utah, and 28% of 196 sites in Wyoming were melted out. The snowpack in the Upper Colorado River basin peaked at a record low percent of median peak SWE and was 27% of median on April 1.

After low and early peak snowpack, annual streamflow volume forecasts were much below average on April 1. Annual streamflow volume forecasts ranged from 25-45% of average in Colorado, 20-55% of average in Utah and 25-100% of average in Wyoming. The inflow to Lake Powell is forecasted at 22% of average (1.4 million acre-feet). Regional streamflow forecasts were highest in the Snake and Missouri River basins of northern Wyoming where streamflow volume forecasts ranged from 65-100% of average.

Regional drought intensified during March, and 93% of the region is experiencing severe drought conditions. Extreme drought conditions developed across a broad swath of Utah, western Colorado and southeastern Wyoming, and now cover 45% of the region. Drought in western Colorado worsened by two to three categories, and exceptional drought developed in northwestern Colorado where exceptional drought conditions coincided with the 137,000-acre Lee Fire in August 2025.

West Drought Monitor map April 7, 2026.

Pacific Ocean temperatures have warmed, and ENSO-neutral conditions (ocean temperatures are within 0.5ยบC of average) now exist. Warming sea surface temperatures prompt an 80% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions during April-June, and NOAA issuing an El Niรฑo Watch. ENSO forecasts predict a 60% chance of El Niรฑo conditions developing by May-July and continuing through the end of 2026. There is a 25% chance of a very strong El Niรฑo developing during the beginning of the 2027 water year. NOAA seasonal forecasts for April-June suggest an increased probability for below average precipitation and up to a 70% probability for above average temperatures.

Significant weather event: March heat wave.ย The heat wave during March 2026 was unprecedented in the western U.S. climate records since 1895. March 2026 average temperatures shattered records in Colorado (by 4.3ยบF), Utah (by 5.5ยบF), and Wyoming (by 2ยบF). Amongst weather monitoring sites with at least 50 years of data, new March temperature records were set at 85% of sites in Colorado, 82% of sites in Utah and 60% of sites in Wyoming. In Utah, previous March temperature records were exceeded by 9.7ยบF in Alta and 8.9ยบF in Escalante. New all-time maximum March temperature records were set at 80-90% of weather sites in Colorado and Utah, and at 70% of sites in Wyoming. At many locations in Colorado and Utah, new March temperature records exceeded April maximum temperature records. Maximum March 2026 temperatures along the Front Range of Colorado reached the 90s with Burlington, CO recording 99ยบF on March 26. Extremely high March temperatures were present across the majority of the West, and record statewide March temperatures were set in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. A new record March temperature was also set for the contiguous U.S.

Borrego Springs: A cautionary tale about groundwater use in the California desert

A landscape featuring a grove of dry palm trees with their fronds hanging down, surrounded by brown grass and mountains in the background under a cloudy sky.
A dessicated palm grove northeast of Borrego Springs, CA. Photo by Robert Marcos.

by Robert Marcos, photojournalist

For decades, the desert town of Borrego Springs – in eastern San Diego County, thrived upon what appeared to be an unlimited supply sunshine and groundwater. Lacking an alternative supply of water this isolated community was entirely dependent on the prehistoric groundwater that was lying beneath it. This finite resource acted as the lifeblood for two competing interests: a flourishing agricultural sector and a steady expansion of residential and resort development.1

The valleyโ€™s economic foundation was laid by industrial-scale agriculture. Beginning in the mid-20th century, farmers realized that the high water table and intense desert sun created perfect conditions for citrus, grapes, and nursery crops. Water was pumped aggressively to transform the arid landscape into a lush production hub. At its height, agriculture accounted for roughly 70% of the valley’s water consumption, providing the jobs and revenue that initially put Borrego Springs on the map.

Parallel to the farming boom, the town marketed itself as a serene, upscale getaway, leading to significant residential growth. Developers built golf courses, luxury resorts, and sprawling retirement communities that promised a “green” lifestyle in the middle of the desert. These amenities required massive amounts of groundwater to maintain verdant fairways and private pools. For years, the abundance of the aquifer made it easy to ignore the fact that the community was growing far beyond the environment’s natural recharge rate.2

However, the “golden age” of water use eventually hit a breaking point as the aquifer began to rapidly decline. Decades of extracting more water than the earth could replace caused the water table to drop by more than 100 feet in some areas. As the ground sank and the cost of pumping from deeper depths rose, the sustainability of the valleyโ€™s twin economies came into question. The very resource that invited growth became the primary limiting factor for its future.3

Today, Borrego Springs stands as a cautionary tale of desert over-extraction. Under California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, the community has been forced to implement drastic water reductions, leading to the fallowing of many farms and strict mandates for residents. While the groundwater once fueled a dream of limitless desert prosperity, its depletion now dictates a new era of conservation, proving that growth without replenishment is ultimately a race toward an empty well.4

Meeting #Climate Targets Requires Humanity to Reorient Its Relationship With Nature, New Study Says — Jake Bolster (InsideClimateNews.org)

Bison graze near the North Entrance of Yellowstone National Park. Credit: Jacob W. Frank/NPS

Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Jake Bolster):

April 9, 2026

A team including scientists, Indigenous people and conservationists point to the ecosystem connecting Yellowstone and the Yukon as an example of a region where humans and nature are flourishing together.

Governments cannot reach their climate goals without rethinking humanityโ€™s relationship to the Earth.ย 

That is the overarching takeaway from a new paper published [April 9, 2026] inย Frontiers in Scienceย by a global team of scientists, conservationists and Indigenous people. The authors examined a set of climate targets from around the world, including the Paris Agreement, through the lens of a โ€œNature Positiveโ€ approach to climate change, in which biodiversity loss is halted and reversed by 2030 compared to a 2020 baseline.

They found that climate progress cannot happen without widespread attempts to increase biodiversity, protect intact ecosystems and reverse ecological damage from centuries of consumption.

For too long, humanityโ€”particularly in the Global Northโ€”has viewed the environment as either a resource to mine, or a hindrance to economic growth, said Harvey Locke, the paperโ€™s lead author and a co-founder of the Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative.

โ€œNature is essential to the functioning of the Earth system, which is in turn essential to people, and people are essential to the economy,โ€ he said. โ€œThat is the hierarchy, nothing else.โ€

The paper characterized the present global economic order as occurring in the โ€œsweet spotโ€ between competing environmental, societal and economic interests, but says that trichotomy has occurred at the expense of other species and the planet. To maintain a habitable planet, humanity must nest its economy within the limits of Earthโ€™s environment, the authors said.

One of the most severe examples of the current imbalance is climate change, Locke said.ย 

โ€œWeโ€™ve wildly exceeded the planetary boundary for putting CO2 into the atmosphere and weโ€™re wildly destabilizing the Earth system through the destruction of nature,โ€ he said. โ€œEveryone in humanity losesโ€”everyoneโ€”if we continue to destabilize the Earth system. And everyone wins if we work toward stabilizing it.โ€

As an example of how economies can grow while ecosystems are preserved and biodiversity is restored, Locke pointed to the Rockies in North America, particularly the region spanning Yellowstone to Yukon.

According to the National Park Service, the greater Yellowstone ecosystem is โ€œone of the largest nearly intact temperate-zone ecosystems on Earth.โ€

โ€œWe have a wider distribution of bears and wolves and bison today than we did thirty years ago. We have more protected areas now than we did thirty years ago. And meanwhile the human population has flourished in that landscape,โ€ Locke said, โ€œin big measure because people value nature.โ€

The greater Yellowstone areaโ€™s growth has not been without its pains. As more people settle in the mountains, urban and suburban enclaves sprawl into forests,ย increasing fire risks. Grizzly bears and wolves, while magnates for tourists and their dollars, have also becomeย political lightning rods, with some arguing that their rising populations are exceeding the capacity that the growing human settlements in the area will accept.

โ€œIf we donโ€™t grow wisely, we will kill the goose thatโ€™s laying the golden egg,โ€ Locke acknowledged.ย 

The idea that humans are just one cog in natureโ€™s fabulously complex and interconnected machine is an Indigenous premise, said Leroy Little Bear, one of the paperโ€™s authors and a member of the Kainaiwa tribe that resides near the border of Canada and Montana.

If Indigenous groups across the world had more stewardship over ecosystems, species and land management decisions, it would go a long way toward restoring biodiversity and creating societies and economies that are better tailored to Earthโ€™s environment, Little Bear said.

โ€œWe come from and operate on the basis of relationships,โ€ he continued. โ€œWhen youโ€™re related to everything else in the environment, everything out thereโ€”the water, the rocks, the trees, the birdsโ€”are all animate. So if theyโ€™re animate then they all have the same kind of spirits as you have. How would I treat my relatives?โ€ย 

But European settlers and their descendents have taken a different approach, he said. โ€œIn Western thought, we separate ourselves from nature and to a very large extent, we take the Biblical view that everything is made for the benefit of humans.โ€

To make their point, the authors collected an โ€œenormous number of references to previous work,โ€ said Cara Nelson, a professor of restoration ecology at the University of Montana who was not involved with the paper.ย By Daniel Case – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=63321074

โ€œI felt they did a really great job of identifying this inherent property of life on Earth: interconnection and interdependency,โ€ she said.

To help change human economiesโ€™ relationship to natural systems, Locke said the Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative is exploring creating natural asset companies, where the value of the organization is tied to the preservation of nature, not its destruction, so private capital can spur conservation.ย 

โ€œYou basically think about nature like gold. Itโ€™s gonna go up in value because itโ€™s perceived to have value,โ€ Locke said. โ€œAnd weโ€™re not making any more of it.โ€

Sheep Slot Rapids Firth River Ivvavik National Park Yukon Territory. By Daniel Case – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=63321074

#Snowpack news April 13, 2026

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map April 12, 2026.
Colorado SNOTEL basin-filled map April 12, 2026.

โ€˜Itโ€™s incredibly badโ€™: No end in sight to #ColoradoRiver water crisis. Emergency drawdown of #FlamingGorge is imminent, officials say. The water situation is crashing so rapidly that authorities canโ€™t confidently track the extent of it — Dustin Bleizeffer (WyoFile.com) #COriver #aridification

A tourist visits the lower reaches of Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah in September 2021. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the article on the Wyofile website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

April 10, 2026

The outlook for the Colorado River, and Lake Powell in particular, continues to worsen due to an historically warm winter and dismal snowpack.

Projections show that Lake Powell on the Utah-Arizona border could drop low enough this year that it stops producing hydroelectric power at the Glen Canyon Dam. If it drops even lower, the dam is in danger of structural failure.

Wyoming relies on some of that hydroelectric power, according to state officials. The state will also play a major, legally obligated role in trying to help prevent such a catastrophe. Primarily, the Bureau of Reclamation will release extra water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir โ€” potentially 1 million acre feet, which is more than a quarter of its storage capacity of about 3.8 million acre-feet.

In addition to recreation and economic impacts at Flaming Gorge on the Wyoming-Utah border โ€” boat ramps may be rendered inoperable โ€” Wyoming officials worry about potential mandatory water use reductions in the southwest corner of the state, as well as potential legal entanglements over a seven-state negotiation that has so far failed to resolve how stakeholders will share the pain of a declining Colorado River.

Buckboard Marina owner Tony Valdez, seen here Sept. 26, 2022, says heโ€™s made continual adjustments to boat docks to keep up with lowering water levels at Flaming Gorge Reservoir. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Adding to frustrations and fears, the water crisis is so severe and crashing so rapidly that stakeholders canโ€™t even track โ€” with confidence โ€” its extent.

โ€œEven though these projections are painting an incredibly dire picture for us, we need to be mindful that runoff might even be worse than whatโ€™s being projected,โ€ Wyoming Senior Assistant Attorney General Chris Brown said Friday, adding that dry soil throughout the region is a wildcard in water calculations. โ€œItโ€™s bad. Itโ€™s incredibly bad what weโ€™re seeing in the Upper [Colorado River] Basin right now.โ€

Brown joined Wyoming State Engineer Brandon Gebhart Friday at a Wyoming Colorado River Advisory Committee meeting to provide an update on the crisis (click here to see a slidedeck presented at the meeting).

โ€œThe information weโ€™re getting is evolving just about as quickly as the hydrology is declining, so weโ€™re trying to react to what weโ€™re seeing in almost real time,โ€ Brown said. โ€œWe donโ€™t know whatโ€™s actually going to happen.โ€

This graphic depicts the โ€œprobableโ€ water year for the Colorado River Basin in 2026. (Bureau of Reclamation)

An extra release from Flaming Gorge, which will begin on or before May 1, is a certainty, according to Wyoming water officials. Thatโ€™s because the reservoir was specifically built to serve as a sort of water bank to ensure legally obliged deliveries to downstream states Nevada, Arizona and California. Among four storage reservoirs in the upper basin, Flaming Gorge has the most โ€” and the most legally unrestricted โ€“ water to send downstream to Lake Powell.

โ€œItโ€™s the low-hanging fruit,โ€ Brown said. โ€œItโ€™s the biggest, by far, and itโ€™s got the most available water.โ€

The reservoir also played a vital backup role for Lake Powell a few years ago. Colorado River authorities released an extra volume of about 465,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge in 2023.

But this year, even considering decreased releases from Lake Powell to help maintain Glen Canyon damโ€™s functionality, โ€œanything we do as far as upstream [extra water] releases is not going to be enough,โ€ Brown said.

Flaming Gorge Reservoir on the Utah side near the dam in September 2021. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

“Ramble On” is 56 years old and Robert Plant just walked onto The Late Show and made it sound like he wrote it this morning

Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District implements voluntary drought restrictions — The #PagosaSprings Sun

Colorado Drought Monitor map April 7, 2026.

Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney and Randi Pierce). Here’s an excerpt:

April 8, 2026

On Tuesday, April 7, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) announced that the district is implementing voluntary drought restrictions, with the agency anticipating increased drought restrictions within the next two weeks. According to a statement from the district, โ€œThe Voluntary water reduction stage is intended to give the community advanced notice of developing drought conditions and to begin encouraging water conservation and voluntary water use reduction. The Voluntary stage does not trigger the drought surcharge or tier rate multipliers.โ€ The statement explains the trigger points for the voluntary stage are:

  • A curtailment order on Four Mile Creek prior to May 1.
  • A maximum snow water equivalency (SWE) less than 75 percent of median.
  • Reservoir levels with the addition of diversion flow less than 90 percent.

The statement notes, โ€œWith a maximum Snow Water Equivalency (SWE) of less than 75% of Median as of April 6, 2026, the District is implementing Voluntary Drought Restrictions as of April 7, 2026. PAWSD will implement the next level of mandatory drought restriction stages as dry conditions continue, and these do trigger drought surcharges and/or tier rate multipliers.โ€

An email to The SUN from District Engineer Justin Ramsey also notes the move is due to the National Integrated Drought Information Center upgrading the drought state in Archuleta County from severe to extreme…

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as of 2 p.m. on Wednesday, April 8, the San Juan River in downtown Pagosa Springs had a flow rate of 451 cubic feet per second (cfs). Based on 90 years of water records, the record high flow for that date was recorded in 1960 at 1,380 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1964 at 65 cfs. The median flow for that date is 351 cfs and the mean flow is 418 cfs. The Piedra River near Arboles was flowing at a rate of 365 cfs, as of 2 p.m Wednesday, April 8, according to the USGS. Based on 63 years of water records, the median flow for April 8 is 567 cfs and the mean flow is 690 cfs. The record high flow for April 8 was recorded in 1985 at 2,370 cfs, while the record low was recorded in 1977 at 100 cfs.

Colorado River projected to deliver one-fifth of normal water to Lake Powell after โ€˜astonishingโ€™ March heatwave: The record-hot March conditions that led to a rapid melt-off of the snowpack in Colorado were echoed across the seven-state #ColoradoRiver Basin — The #Aspen Times #COriver #aridification

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map April 11, 2026.

Click the link to read the article on The Aspen Times website (Ryan Spencer). Here’s an excerpt:

April 11, 2026

Anย unprecedented March heatwaveย has forecasters shrinkingย already-low estimatesย for how much water will flow into the Colorado River during spring runoff, which is already well underway this year. The latest models show that the Colorado River is projected to deliver only about 1.4 million acre feet of water โ€” roughly one-fifth of normal โ€” to Lake Powell, the nationโ€™s second-largest reservoir. Colorado River Basin Forecast Center hydrologist Cody Moser said during a water briefing on Tuesday, April 7, that if those projections were to bear out, it would be the third lowest amount of water delivered to Lake Powell in the reservoirโ€™s 63 year history.

โ€œWe are on the extreme end of things,โ€ Moser said. โ€œWe had a huge heatwave at the end of March with significant snowmelt.”

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map March 1, 2026.

At the start of March, snowpack across the Colorado River Basin and projections for the spring runoff were already low,ย raising concerns of water shortagesย and an early start to what could beย a dangerous fire seasonย across the West. Then came a โ€œvery dry Marchโ€ with aย record-shattering heatwaveย that melted large amounts of the snowpack from the โ€œmost crucial areas for spring runoff,โ€ Moser said. Nearly all of these areas had less than 50% of average precipitation in March, and have seen less than half of the average precipitation since October, he said.

A map of the Colorado River Basin shows that dozens of snow telemetry sites across the seven-state basin had the lowest snowpack on record at the start of April 2026. Credit: NRCS

Averaged across Colorado, March was an โ€œastonishingโ€ 13 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average, almost 10 degrees warmer than the 1991-2020 average and more than 4 degrees warmer than any previous March, according to the stateโ€™s monthly climate summary.ย  Large parts of the mountains experienced record-breaking temperatures lasting for days on end and leading to a rapid melt-off of the stateโ€™s already historically-low snowpack. Colorado started April with a snowpack that state climatologists said wasย the worstย in at least the past 75 years. Coloradoโ€™s snowpack peaked in early March โ€” a full month earlier than normal โ€” at 8.5 inches of snow-water equivalent, or roughly half of the 30-year median, according to the stateโ€™s snow telemetry data.ย  Normally, the stateโ€™s snowpack peaks on April 8, but by the time that date rolled around this year, the data show the statewide snowpack had declined to just 3.6 inches of snow water equivalent. Thatโ€™s less than half what it was a month earlier, and just 23% of normal for that point in the season.

The Ship Needs a Captain: A call for leadership in the #ColoradoRiver Basin — ย Page Buono and Sinjin Eberle (AmericanRivers.org) #COriver #aridification

Banks of Lake Powell, Arizona in March 2026 | Page Buono

Click the link to read the article on the American Rivers website (Page Buono and Sinjin Eberle):

March 18, 2026

The situation is clear: the precipitation outlook in the Colorado River Basin is dire, the river cannot sustain the demands placed on it, and this year weโ€™re likely to face unprecedented management decisions with potentially catastrophic consequences.

Despite decades of warnings and years of negotiations, there remains no clear blueprint for how the West can live with less water. That future is no longer hypotheticalโ€”it is already here.

Lake Powellโ€™s drastically low water levels are evident in the discoloration of ancient cliffs that were submerged for decades, often referred to as โ€œthe bathtub ringโ€ in March 2026 | Page Buono

We often talk about the Colorado River and drought in ways that can feel removed, impersonal, abstract, and buried in jargon. But beneath the stories, there are real lives, livelihoods, ecosystems, and traditions that make the region what it is, and that are very much at stake. 

West Drought Monitor map April 7, 2026.

On March 3, for example, the US Drought Monitor released their latest report, revealing that โ€œsnow water equivalentโ€ is less than 70% of normal across the Central Rockies, and less than 50% in the Four Corners. 

Snow water equivalent is essentially how the water in the snow translates to real, wet water โ€“ the kind rivers and people rely on. By some accounts, the prediction for this yearโ€™s total is now on par with โ€“ and potentially worse than โ€“ 2002, which previously held the record for one of the worst water years on the Colorado River. For those who live in the region, the catastrophic wildfires of 2002 are not abstract: the Hayman fire burned for over a month, killed six people, destroyed more than 600 homes, and amounted to estimates of $42 million worth in damages. That same year, Arizona experienced the Rodeo-Chediski fire, which burned nearly half a million acres.

But it isnโ€™t just one fire in one year โ€“ throughout the Southwest and in California, regions are experiencing some of the largest, most catastrophic wildfires in history, and theyโ€™re occurring much more frequently.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

The Salton Sea is a Paradox

Aerial view of a salt flat with contrasting colors of water and land, surrounded by mountains in the distance.
Algae blooms colorize Salton Sea water along its northern shore, at Salt Creek. Aerial photo by Robert Marcos.

by Robert Marcos, photojournalist

The Salton Sea is a paraodox for a multitude of reasons. The most striking is that the Salton Sea can exist only as long as the Imperial Valley continues to drain 1.3 million acre feet of salt and pesticide-laden runoff into it, annually. That’s exactly how much the Sea loses to evaporation every year. So ironically, the more Colorado River water that’s conserved by Imperial Valley’s farmers the faster the Salton Sea is going to dry up.1

Fact: In 1924 the federal government officially designated the Salton Sea as a permanent repository for agricultural drainage, which authorized the Imperial Irrigation District to use it as a drainage basin for irrigation runoff. This was necessary because increasing salt levels in the soil were threatening to put thousands of acres of highly-productive farmland out of production.2

The Imperial Valley functions as a critical “winter salad bowl” for the United States, yet this massive agricultural output creates a severe environmental health paradox for its residents. While intensive farming produces millions of tons of vegetables, it relies on practices like agricultural burning and heavy pesticide application that release fine particulate matter and toxic chemicals into the air. This pollution is compounded by a shrinking Salton Sea, which acts as a basin for agricultural runoff; as it dries, it exposes toxic lakebed dust containing arsenic and pesticides that wind then carries into local communities. Consequently, children in the Imperial Valley suffer from asthma at rates nearly double the California state average, with roughly one in five children diagnosedโ€”a direct cost of the region’s agricultural success borne by its most vulnerable residents.3

The Salton Sea’s Top 10 Contradictions

  1. It’s a vital yet highly-polluted refuge:ย The Sea acts as a critical Pacific Flyway habitat for millions of birds, yet it is highly contaminated with agricultural toxins, heavy metals, and selenium.
  2. Sustained by Wastewater:ย The lake requires constant inflow of polluted farm drainage (tailwater) to survive; restricting this agricultural runoff is necessary for water quality but speeds up its drying.
  3. Agriculture vs. Air Quality:ย Farming irrigation sustains the lake, but as water efficiency increases, less water reaches the sea, accelerating the exposure of dry lakebed (playa) and the resulting toxic dust storms.
  4. Species Management vs. Habitat Collapse:ย State agencies work to protect endangered species, but the increasing salinityย is killing the fish and food sources those species need.
  5. Environmental Destruction as Restoration:ย Major restoration projects often involve breaking up existing, albeit shrinking, habitats to create smaller, managed ponds.
  6. Terminal Lake Reality:ย It is a closed basin that cannot flush itself, meaning all contaminants from decades of agriculture are trapped and concentrated indefinitely.
  7. Water Transfers vs. Regional Health:ย The Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) transfers water to urban areas, reducing inflows to the sea and damaging local communitiesโ€™ health for external economic gain.
  8. Natural vs. Artificial Conflict:ย It is managed as a wildlife refuge but was created entirely by a catastrophic engineering failure of a canal, resulting in a fragile “artificial” ecosystem.
  9. Salinity vs. Stability:ย Efforts to reduce nutrient inflow (to curb algae) can lead to faster shrinking, while allowing nutrients causes massive fish die-offs and odor.
  10. The “Green” Paradox:ย Developing the area for green energyโ€”namely lithium extractionโ€”requires long-term stability in a region deemed too dangerous for human health due to toxic air.ย 

Upper #ColoradoRiver Basin Statesโ€™ Governors Release Statement on Proposed Draw Down of #FlamingGorge and Upper Basin Reservoirs

View below Flaming Gorge Dam from the Green River, eastern Utah. Photo credit: USGS

Click the link to read the release on Governor Polis’ website:

April 9, 2026

Today, Governors Jared Polis (D-Colo.), Mark Gordon (R-Wyo.), Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-N.M.) and Spencer Cox (R-Utah) released a statement on the proposed draw down of Flaming Gorge and other upper basin reservoirs: 

โ€œThis is an unprecedented year on the Colorado River, and likely will be one of the worst on record. A dry year like this reminds us of why it is critical that all who rely on this resource learn to live within its means and adapt our uses accordingly. 

The Upper Division States of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, are actively and strictly regulating water uses. Because of such diminished runoff, existing state laws in the Upper Division States require water users to face cuts to water rights dating back to the 1800s – these cuts are mandatory, uncompensated, and will have significant impacts on water users, including Upper Basin Tribes, and local economies. 

It is critical that any releases made by the federal government from Flaming Gorge and other upstream reservoirs are in compliance with existing agreements, particularly the 2019 Drought Response Operations Agreement between the Bureau of Reclamation and the Upper Division States and governing law and done for the purpose of protecting Lake Powell. We must have a clear understanding of how these proposed releases will effectively protect elevations at Lake Powell. Once the releases conclude, we expect that all water released from Flaming Gorge and other upstream reservoirs will be fully recovered. 

Further, any releases must be appropriately sized. Years like this one remind us that appropriate water storage helps us survive the dry years, and that we must be prepared not only for this year but future dry years, as well as average years. 

As we continue to comply with commitments to our water users and the Law of River, we recognize the impacts of water shortages and water releases from Upper Basin reservoirs on local communities – not only related to future water supply availability, but also how they affect jobs and local recreational and other economies. We recognize the need to live within the available supply and expect other communities to do so as well.โ€ 

#ClimateChange doesnโ€™t care about your bandwidth: Crises abound these days, that doesnโ€™t mean the global warming menace has abated — Quentin Young (ColoradoNewsline.com)

The Colorado River is pictured where if flows near Hite, just beyond the upper reaches of Lake Powell, on Friday, Sept. 19, 2025. (Photo by Spenser Heaps for Utah News Dispatch)

Click the link to read the commentary on the Colorado Newsline website (Quentin Young):

April 9, 2026

So many crises threaten society these days. Daily news about war, the emergence of AI, runaway costs of living, the threat of new pandemics, the growing dangers of fascism in Washington โ€” itโ€™s a deluge of worry, and it can be hard to think about much else.

But the pile of troubles in recent years has diverted attention from the long-term crisis of climate change, arguably humanityโ€™s supreme challenge, which is not going away just because it gets less attention.ย Some commentatorsย have suggested that no one has the bandwidth anymore to think about climate change. But climate change doesnโ€™t care about your bandwidth, and conditions in Colorado prove the point. [ed. emphasis mine]

The state just had its warmest winter on record by almost 2 degrees Fahrenheit, and average temperatures from December through February were more than 8 degrees above the 20th century average, as Newslinereported last month. Cities up and down the Front Range saw record-high numbers of 60-degree days this winter. The state is also fantastically dry, part of an aridification process driven by global warming.

As reporter Chase Woodruff wrote, โ€œHotter, drier conditions in Colorado have stressed water supplies, made the stateโ€™s forests more vulnerable to insects and diseases, and greatly increased wildfire risk.โ€

Waterways in Colorado this year are universally expected to see below-normal flows, including the Colorado River, which is forecast to run at just 68% of normal. The Colorado River, a vital resource for 40 million people, this century has experienced critical streamflow depletions. The river is down 20% from historic annual averages. Some projections suggest Lake Powell, a crucial reservoir on the river, could dropfor the first time below the minimum level needed for it to produce hydropower at the Glen Canyon Dam, energy generation relied on by almost 6 million people.

Low snowpack thatโ€™s contributing to streamflow shortages is also a blow to the Colorado ski industry, which generates $4.8 billion a year and supports more than 46,000 jobs across the state. At the current trajectory, the industry will disappear by the end of the century. Climate modeling shows the ski season could be shortened by more than a month by 2050 and more than two months by 2090. And itโ€™s not just less snow โ€” climate change is to blame for increasingly poor snow.

The latest forecasts suggest Coloradans should brace for more brutal wildfires this year. Hot and dry conditions, along with low moisture content in vegetative fuels, are already at levels on the Front Range typical of peak fire season. Worsening conditions as summer unfolds will further increase the stateโ€™s vulnerability to wildfires. Tinderbox conditions are becoming the norm: The three largest wildfires in Colorado history all occurred in 2020, and the stateโ€™s 20 biggest fires have all occurred in the past 20 years.

There is no scientific doubt that climate change contributes to bigger, fiercer wildfires and other extreme ecological events, and there is no scientific doubt that the primary cause of climate change is the human combustion of fossil fuels.

Yet government policies, especially as guided by MAGA priorities, reject the science. In February, the Trump administration revoked the so-called endangerment finding, which recognized the dangers of greenhouse gas emissions and allowed climate regulations under the Clean Air Act. The administration is forcing coal-fired power generation in Colorado to persist past a planned retirement date, apparently to accommodate coal business interests.

Climate change so far has not figured prominently in 2026 statewide elections. The platforms of the top Democratic candidates for governor, U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser, both mention climate change as a problem to confront. But Bennet touts a โ€œmarket-based path to cut emissionsโ€ that resembles the disappointing carrot-over-stick approach of the administration of Gov. Jared Polis, under whom the state has failed to meet its own greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. 

Many Coloradans fear the federal government, and theyโ€™re struggling to pay for housing, health care and other necessities, while national and world events seem ever more alarming. But, though it usually doesnโ€™t produce spectacular daily headlines, climate change threatens eventually to leave whole regions of the Earth uninhabitable.

The worst effects of climate change can still be avoided, but only if voters insist leaders address it with the emergency response it demands.

Colorado statewide annual temperature anomaly (ยฐF) with respect to the 1901-2000 average. Graphic credit: Colorado Climate Center