Feds seek short-term fixes on #ColoradoRiver, leaving #Arizona in limbo — AZCentral.com #COriver #aridification

Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall

Click the link to read the article on the AZCentral website (Brandon Loomis). Here’s an excerpt:

May 14, 2026

Key Points

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is now seeking a 10-year water-sharing plan for the Colorado River states, adjusting cutbacks every two years.

A worst-case scenario being modeled could slash water shares for Arizona, California and Nevada by 40%.

The Lower Basin states have proposed their own conservation plan, which could cover the first two years of the new federal framework.

Unable to get Colorado River states to hash out a new 20-year deal to share in worsening water shortages, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has told them it’s now aiming for a 10-year plan with prescribed cutbacks to be reassessed every two years. Federal officials informed the seven states of their new preference late last week, and Arizona’s lead negotiator made it public on Wednesday, May 13, during a meeting of a committee representing the cities, tribes and other water users who meet to develop a unified state position.

The shift to what could effectively become five two-year plans carries both opportunities and risks for Arizona. On the one hand, state Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke said, it means a proposal that the Lower Basin states — Arizona, California and Nevada — recently submitted to boost their conservation through 2028 could cover the first two-year term if federal officials agree. That would keep water moving through the Central Arizona Project Canal, an economic lifeline that is at risk under some other scenarios. On the other hand, a move to bite-size plans “has us in a room negotiating for the next 10 years,” Buschatzke said at a meeting of the Arizona Reconsultation Committee. “That’s not something that creates the certainty that we’ve heard some people desire.”

[…]

New rules are necessary because the shortage-sharing guidelines that covered the last 20 years expire this fall — and because the river keeps shrinking along with a paltry snowpack in the Rocky Mountains. A deepening shortage has increased the stakes, keeping a consensus deal out of reach…In pitching their new 10-year “framework,” federal officials also informed the states that they intend to at least model the potential effects of a 3 million acre-foot annual reduction to what the three Lower Basin states could pull from Lake Mead. That worst-case scenario would slash 40% from what the century-old Colorado River Compact promised those Lower Basin states, and it could dry up the CAP Canal. It’s nearly twice the reduction that those states offered in their recent proposal…A 10-year program with a broad menu of potential guidelines that update every two years allows flexibility to adapt to both the changing hydrology and the potential for a political breakthrough on a consensus deal, [Alex] Smith said.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

#Drought news May 14, 2026: Portions of #Colorado and adjacent areas of #Wyoming and #Kansas recorded 0.7 to 1.6 inches of precipitation, ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 inches above normal

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

This week was defined by a significant precipitation divide, highlighted by a major deluge across parts of the South and Gulf Coast. Persistent storm systems funneled heavy moisture into Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where total rainfall reached 4 to 6 inches—and in some coastal pockets even higher—representing departures of 3 to 5 inches above seasonal norms. While an active frontal corridor brought a secondary band of moderate rain (1 to 3 inches) from Texas through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, the Western U.S. remained exceptionally dry, with most areas west of the Rockies receiving less than 0.1 inch of rain. This lack of moisture, paired with blustery winds, triggered extreme fire danger across the Upper Mississippi Valley, though the period concluded with a pattern shift as a significant Pacific low-pressure system finally moved onshore to deliver moisture to the Northwest.

Temperature patterns showed an equally sharp geographical split, with unseasonable warmth gripping the West and parts of the South while a late-spring chill lingered over the North. In the Southwest and South Texas, summer-like heat took a firm hold as Rio Grande Village, Texas, hit a national high of 105°F and Death Valley consistently reached the triple digits; overall, the Western U.S. averaged 5 to 15°F above normal. Conversely, a significant cool-down settled over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, where the Dakotas and Minnesota experienced temperatures 5 to 15°F below seasonal averages. This thermal contrast was further sharpened by winter-like conditions in high-elevation regions of the West, where stations in Utah recorded lows as cold as 10°F, even as record-challenging warmth began to expand across the Pacific Northwest and the Southern Border states…

High Plains

Anomalous warmth dominated most of the High Plains this week, while precipitation was defined by a significant east-west gradient. The eastern portions of the region, remained under a persistent late-spring chill with average temperatures falling 4°F to 10°F below seasonal norms. This area was also exceptionally dry, receiving less than 0.05 inches of rain, which resulted in precipitation deficits of 0.6 to 1.2 inches. Persistent dryness resulted in the expansion of exceptional (D4) drought in Nebraska, while and moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought were expanded in northeastern Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. In contrast, the western High Plains across Wyoming, much of Colorado, and western portions of South Dakota and Nebraska, experienced unseasonable warmth, with departures ranging from 2°F to 6°F above normal. This warmth was accompanied by an active moisture corridor through the southern High Plains; while northern and eastern reaches were dry, portions of Colorado and adjacent areas of Wyoming and Kansas recorded 0.7 to 1.6 inches of precipitation, ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 inches above normal. This above-normal precipitation resulted in the removal of exceptional (D4) and reduction of extreme (D3) drought in Wyoming, and improvements to severe (D2) to exceptional (D4) drought in Colorado and severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought in western Kansas…

Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending May 12, 2026.

West

The West was characterized by unseasonable warmth and widespread dryness across the Pacific Coast and Great Basin, contrasted by cooler, more active conditions in the Rocky Mountains this week. The eastern portion of the region—specifically eastern portions of Montana, Utah, and New Mexico—remained notably cooler, with departures ranging 3°F to 6°F below normal. However, most of the region, particularly in parts of Oregon, California, and Nevada, experienced significant temperature departures of 6°F to over 12°F above normal, with actual average readings in the Desert Southwest reaching the 80s and 90s. This heat was paired with minimal moisture, as coastal and interior basin states recorded less than 0.1 inches of rain, resulting in precipitation deficits of 0.6 to 1.5 inches below seasonal averages. Exceptional (D4) drought was expanded in southern Idaho, while extreme (D3) drought was introduced in Oregon and expanded in Montana, Idaho, and Nevada this week. Severe (D2) and moderate (D1) drought were expanded in Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. Severe (D2) drought was also introduced in northern Washington and expanded in northern Nevada. Conditions deteriorated over parts of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon resulting in the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) in these areas. Conversely, localized moisture resulted in the moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought and abnormal dryness (D0) improvements in southern Arizona, while improvements to moderate (D1) drought occurred in parts of western Nevada…

South

The Southern region experienced a stark contrast in both precipitation and temperature during the week, defined by torrential Gulf Coast rains and a significant late-spring chill across the interior. Precipitation was most intense across the central Gulf Coast, particularly in Louisiana and southern Mississippi, where weekly totals reached 7 to over 9 inches. These amounts represent exceptional departures of 6 to 7.5 inches above normal. Moderate (D1) to Exceptional (D4) drought was reduced in southern and eastern portions of Texas, and in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and southern Tennessee. Abnormal dryness (D0) was improved in parts of Texas and southern Louisiana. Conversely, drier conditions prevailed in West Texas, Oklahoma, and much of the Tennessee Valley, where precipitation was generally 1.5 to 3 inches below average. Exceptional (D4) was introduced in southwest Oklahoma and from the Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma, and expanded in parts of Arkansas and northern Mississippi. Extreme (D3) expanded in northern portions of Texas and western Oklahoma. Heat persisted in southern Texas, where average temperatures reached the 80s and 90s, representing departures of up to 5°F above normal. However, a powerful cold anomaly gripped the northern, eastern, and central portions of the region. In these areas, temperatures were broadly 5 to 10°F below normal for the week…

Looking Ahead

Over the next five days (May 12–16, 2026), weather patterns across the United States will feature a stark contrast between record-challenging heat in the West and unsettled, cooler conditions in the East. A building atmospheric ridge will maintain well-above-normal temperatures across the western U.S., with several high-temperature records likely to be tied or broken as this warmth spreads into the central Plains by mid-week. Conversely, the eastern half of the country can expect near to below-normal temperatures as a series of frontal systems bring frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms from the Midwest to the Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, an incoming Pacific low-pressure system is forecast to deliver light to moderate precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while gusty winds may accompany the passage of these weather systems across the Rockies and Great Plains.

Further out, the Climate Prediction Center’s 6–10 day outlook (valid May 17–21, 2026) favors above-normal temperatures across Hawaii and most of the contiguous U.S., with the most intense heat probability concentrated in the Southeast. Areas along the northern border and southern parts of Alaska are favored to be cooler-than-average during this period. Probabilities for above-normal precipitation are increased across Hawaii and the vast majority of the lower 48 states and Alaska. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across the West Coast, particularly over northern California, and in parts of the East Coast, from the Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas.

US Drought Monitor one week change map ending May 12, 2026.

Topsoil Moisture % Short/Very Short by @usda_oce. Most % short/very short remains in the Interior West and Southeast, including CO (93%), MT (85%), NM (84%), SC (80%), GA (79%). Also, NE is at 84%.

In this special episode, SNWA General Manager John Entsminger joins City Cast Las Vegas Podcast host Jesse Merrick to discuss how the aging Law of the River is colliding with a modern #climate — Southern Nevada Water Authority #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

In this special episode, SNWA General Manager John Entsminger joins City Cast Las Vegas Podcast host Jesse Merrick to discuss how the aging Law of the River is colliding with a modern climate. 🎧: https://t.co/uTIfvvnCKb pic.twitter.com/n6Jio3BBFD
— Southern Nevada Water Authority (@SNWA_H2O) May 13, 2026

Colorado River District Board Approves Funding for Irrigation Financial Sustainability Pilot Projects

Click the link to read the release on the Colorado River District website (Lindsay DeFrates):

May 11, 2026

At its quarterly board meeting in April, the Colorado River District Board of Directors approved $415,876 in Community Funding Partnership grants to support six irrigation companies and districts as part of the newly launched Irrigation Company Financial Sustainability Pilot Grant Opportunity. The pilot program is designed to help irrigation providers assess the condition and financial needs of their systems, prioritize capital improvements, and develop long-term financial plans that support ongoing maintenance and modernization with greater independence and less reliance on uncertain outside funding.

The six approved projects include:

Grand Tunnel Ditch Company, Garfield County: $14,246

McDonald Ditch Irrigation Company, Montrose County: $17,255

Terror Ditch and Reservoir Company, Delta County: $8,500

Maybell Irrigation District, Moffat County: $39,695

Orchard Mesa Irrigation District, Mesa County: $198,650

Grand Valley Irrigation Company, Mesa County: $137,530

“These projects are great examples of the Community Funding Partnership’s goals of strengthening Western Slope communities by investing in the water infrastructure they depend on,” said Melissa Wills, Community Funding Partnership Program Manager for the Colorado River District. “By helping irrigation providers plan for long-term maintenance, modernization, and financial sustainability, we are supporting West Slope agriculture and local economies, ultimately helping communities prepare for a hotter, drier future.”

Together, the projects support irrigation companies across Delta, Garfield, Mesa, Moffat, and Montrose counties, and a range of ditch sizes, organizational structures, and agricultural communities. Each project will support the development of a capital improvement plan and rate study to help local water providers better understand infrastructure needs, project costs and sustainable funding options. Collectively, the six projects align with the Community Funding Partnership’s goals to support productive agriculture, improve water infrastructure, increase conservation and efficiency, and strengthen communities that rely on local water systems.

The six pilot grants awarded will serve as models for the Irrigation Company Financial Sustainability Pilot Grant Opportunity to collect lessons learned and develop a potential future program that meets the organizational sustainability needs for irrigation companies across the Western Slope. This pilot grant is the first program on the Western Slope to provide dedicated funding for irrigation companies’ infrastructure and financial planning.

Since launching in 2021, the Community Funding Partnership has invested over 32 million dollars in water projects across Western Colorado that support productive agriculture, healthy rivers, watershed health, water quality, infrastructure, conservation and efficiency.

To learn more about the Community Funding Partnership program and funding opportunities, visit coloradoriverdistrict.org/community-funding-partnership.

The Colorado River Water Conservation District spans 15 Western Slope counties. Voters across the district are considering a mill-levy increase that would raise the River District’s budget by $5 million, funding a variety of water-related projects.
Colorado River District/Courtesy image

President Trump axes Public Lands Rule: Plus — The Hoback Report, a guest dispatch from Bob Frodeman — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org)

The Hoback River after a storm as it meets up with the Snake River. Bob Frodeman photo. (via The Land Desk)

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

May 12, 2026

The Hoback Report

by Bob Frodeman

The weather has been odd this year on the southern side of the Yellowstone Plateau. And summer is setting up to be a little scary – low water, fire danger, and masses of tourists.

Hoback, Wyoming, is an unincorporated area of a few hundred people 14 miles south of the Jackson Town Square. It’s the poorest part of the wealthiest county, Teton, in the United States. The residents here stand a little apart – you see bumper stickers plastered with the message ‘Hoback Nation’. Some four million cars pass through our roundabout each year, mostly tourists, but also people driving to work from more affordable locales like Alpine and Pinedale. It’s also where the Hoback River joins the Snake just before it enters the Snake River Canyon, the site of whitewater trips offered by local outfitters.

The Hoback River runs 66 miles, starting in the slopes of the Wyoming Range around Bondurant, Wyoming. It still runs free – no dams (yet). For a western river it’s medium sized: base flows sit at 200 cubic feet per-second across the winter, with peak flows reaching perhaps 4,300 cfs around the first of June. The last 11 miles of the Hoback, from its confluence with Granite Creek, are protected, part of the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System. My home looks up the Hoback: deer walk across the river in the winter and fishermen and kayakers come down all summer.

Waterwise, conditions were better here than across most of the West until the March warm-up. Teton County was even a bit above normal in snow water equivalent, or SWE, the typical measure of snowpack. But the snowfall was unevenly spread: lots of snow in the mountains, but dry in the valleys. For the first time since the 90s there wasn’t continuous snow cover in the valley across the winter, and we had a brown Christmas. The valleys saw five rain events this winter that melted what snow we did get at 6,000 feet. On the other hand, the warm, wet air meant more snow on the peaks. Jackson Hole Mountain Resort had the best snow in the West.

Up until the late March heatwave, the Hoback watershed was faring better than most of the West, snowpack-wise. But after that? Not so great. Source: NRCS.

The heatwave of March was something to behold. On March 21 the temperature hit 71 degrees, 32 degrees above normal, taking a big bite out of the snowpack. The rivers grew five times from their base flows two months ahead of schedule. Daffodils appeared five weeks early.

On the good side, the winter has been easy on the wildlife. The antelope have been particularly hard hit by the winter of 2022-2023. That year the fawn mortality was nearly 100%, the result of three feet of crusty snow. Whether the antelope, deer, and elk will have enough browse this summer is an open question. Fingers are crossed for a good monsoon.

But even with a good monsoon this summer’s water situation is looking dicey. The local reservoirs, Jackson and Palisades, caught the early runoff, but Wyoming has rights to only 4% of the water in the Snake – senior water rights belong to Idaho farmers. The Bureau of Reclamation recently announced that Jackson Lake may be drained dry this summer to provide water to farmers across the Snake River Plain. We’ll learn more about Bureau of Reclamation plans at its meeting in Jackson in mid-May.

At least the ospreys were on time. The pair that inhabit the nest above our home appeared on April 1. They’ve been busy carrying sticks to replenish their nest. They spend the summer fighting with bald eagles, when they aren’t dismantling fish in the crooked dead conifer that juts out over the river.

This might sound idyllic, but there’s a wealth of political controversy in Teton County. You’d expect nothing less from a place that combines funhogs and billionaires, second homeowners and 4^th generation ranchers, a county with 23,000 inhabitants hosting 3.3 million visitors a year. Teton County is a blue dot in a very red state. It creates a weird dynamic: the conservative Freedom Caucus politicians in Cheyenne are often hostile to us while also being dependent on our tourist-generated income (there is no state income tax). There’s also a jarring juxtaposition of the local and the international: the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, meets here each August, and the likes of JD Vance and Kristi Noem come to town for fundraisers. Real estate office windows are plastered with ads printed in both English and Russian. And the average price of a home here is more than six million dollars.

Bob Frodeman lives in Hoback, Wyoming. He is a co-editor of A Watershed Moment: The American West in the Age of Limits.

🌵 Public Lands 🌲

The Trump administration today [May 12, 2026] fully rescinded the Conservation and Landscape Health Rule, a.k.a. the Public Lands Rule. The Biden-era rule was finalized in 2024 and endeavored to put conservation on a par with other uses of federal lands, such as grazing, mining, and drilling, primarily by making leases available for conservation or restoration projects. Now, before it ever even had a chance to be tested, it is being killed to better align the Bureau of Land Management’s regulations with the Trump administration’s agenda, which effectively is to return the agency to the days of the Bureau of Livestock and Mining.

This is yet another volley in the administration’s wholesale assault on public land management and environmental protections designed to benefit the extractive industries, while also sticking it to some of Trump’s many adversaries.

It’s unfortunate, sure, but the reaction from some environmental groups seems totally overblown and aimed more at triggering anger than truly considering the limited effects this will likely have on the ground. While I understand the need to rally the troops, so to speak, I’m not sure hyperbole and constant outrage is all that productive.

I’ve read, for example, that the administration is “stripping conservation” from public lands, and that this is simply a prelude to “dispose of these landscapes entirely.” It sounds a lot like the reactions from the extreme right when the rule was being developed: It would “eradicate grazing” and its framers were akin to tree-spiking eco-terrorists, that it would “lock up more land,” and then South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem called it “dangerous.”

None of this is accurate.

For the most part, the Public Lands Rule was a sort of reinforcement of the 1976 Federal Land Policy Management Act’s multiple-use mandate, which directed the BLM to manage public lands “on the basis of multiple use and sustained yield” and “in a manner that will protect the quality of scientific, scenic, historical, ecological, environmental, air and atmospheric, water resource, and archeological values.”

The rule applied land health standards and codified a framework for establishing areas of critical environmental concern. Perhaps most significantly, it created a conservation lease system, which allowed entities to lease land to conduct restoration projects or conservation activities. While conservation tends to be considered a “non-use,” this flipped that to make conservation a “use” — one that could even generate revenues for the federal government. Whether this put conservation on a level-playing field with drilling, mining, and other extraction is unclear.

What is clear is that the rule could not be used to boot cows, drill rigs, mines, or any other existing use off public land. Conservation leases would only be available on land that wasn’t already leased or claimed. And it had absolutely nothing to do with public land conveyances, exchanges, transfers, or sales.

Since the rule didn’t stop extractive uses, abuses, or land transfers, revoking it won’t spark an uptick in grazing, drilling, or mining, nor will it lead to wholesale land selloffs.

What the Public Lands Rule did do was attempt to steer the agency — albeit gently — further away from its old identity as a sort of clearing house for extractive industries. It acknowledged the effects of climate change on public lands, and the landscape-health standards — if applied correctly — could have stopped the BLM from leasing out certain parcels for development. And, it seems to me, the conservation lease concept could have helped kickstart a land healing industry.

For example, a conservation group might have been able to lease out one of the vacated grazing allotments in Canyon of the Ancients National Monument, and conduct restoration work on that land, such as replanting native grasses or removing noxious invasive weeds. Or perhaps using federal funds from the Biden-era Infrastructure and Inflation Reduction Acts — which Trump and the GOP gutted — an entity could have taken over terminated leases in the mostly abandoned Horseshoe-Gallup oilfield, cleaned up the mess, and plugged and reclaimed the methane-oozing wells.

Tragically, the initiative was nipped in the bud before anyone could see how it might play out on the ground. Hopefully when this administration is over some semblance of democracy and reason will return to Washington and maybe not only revive this rule, but make it even stronger.

Redux: The rise of the land-healing industry — Jonathan P. Thompson

📸 Parting Shots 🎞️

A friend and I went down to Farmington over the weekend to check out some of the newish mountain biking trails around there. We rode the Boneyard trail, which crosses through some interesting country and, as is almost always the case when on public lands in the San Juan Basin, it wound its way around pumpjacks and other gaspatch detritus. It’s sort of like a journey through the energy-economic transition, given that the trails are part of an effort to diversify the fossil fuel economy with outdoor recreation.

The riding is good, though you might want to avoid the trails on a hot day, and sandy areas can bog down bikes with skinnier tires (I rode a gravel bike, which wasn’t a great idea). And, of course, afterwards we went to Blake’s Lotaburger for lunch. The following images are from the trail and downtown Farmington.

Near Farmington, New Mexico. Photo credit: Jonathan P. Thompson

Farmington, New Mexico. Photo credit: Jonathan P. Thompson

Thoughts on boomtown architecture — Jonathan P. Thompson

Beavers to the rescue

A close-up image of a beaver on a log near water, showcasing its wet fur and distinct features. — ^{Wikipedia photo of Castor canadensis taken by Minette Layne in 2009.}

by Robert Marcos

Beavers are experiencing a resurgence across much of the contiguous United States, most visibly in the Pacific Northwest (including parts of Oregon and Washington), the Mountain West (such as Yellowstone and adjacent basins), and the arid Southwest, where they are being actively reintroduced into degraded desert streams to restore wetlands and water storage. They have also rebounded in many eastern and midwestern states, forming thriving populations along rivers, streams, and ponds from the Northeast through the Midwest, while remaining sparse or absent only in a few deep‑South regions.¹

The resurgence of beavers is creating a wide range of ecological, hydrological, and sometimes economic benefits because they act as “ecosystem engineers” that reshape streams and wetlands in ways that support many other species and services.²

Water storage and drought resilience

Beaver dams slow runoff and create ponds and wetlands that store rain and snowmelt on the landscape, which helps maintain base flows during dry periods. In some basins, beaver activity has been linked with up to about 60% more open water during drought compared with pre‑beaver conditions, effectively deepening local water storage and raising groundwater levels.³

Flood and erosion control

By temporarily holding back pulse flows, beaver‑engineered wetlands reduce peak flood volumes downstream, sometimes cutting flood flows by around 50–60% in trials. They also trap sediment and slow the movement of eroded material after storms or fires, which helps protect stream channels and reservoirs from siltation.⁴

Biodiversity and habitat

Beaver‑created wetlands and ponds increase habitat complexity, supporting more insects, amphibians, fish, birds, and other wildlife than comparable un‑dammed reaches. The mosaic of ponds, canals, log jams, and oxidized–reduced microhabitats boosts species richness and can benefit runs of fish such as salmon and trout by creating refuge pools and cooler water refugia.⁵

Water quality improvements

Beaver ponds act as low‑tech filters: sediments and attached pollutants settle out, and microbes in pond sediments help break down nitrogen and other contaminants. This has been documented in both agricultural and urban settings, where beaver‑modified reaches show reduced sediment loads and lower nutrient export downstream.⁶

Climate and carbon resilience

Beaver‑engineered wetlands can store carbon in pond sediments and surrounding vegetation, and their slow‑release hydrology helps buffer landscapes against both floods and droughts—a key feature in climate‑change‑adapted watersheds. In the American West and other arid regions, that “nature‑based” storage is increasingly seen as a low‑cost tool for watershed resilience and water‑supply augmentation.⁷

The #ColoradoRiver is in trouble. A new concept paper shows how a water savings account can help — John Berggren and Kevin Wheeler (Western Resource Advocates) #COriver #aridification

Marble Canyon. Photo credit: Western Resource Advocates

Click the link to read the release on the Western Resource Advocates website (John Berggren):

May 4, 2026

A new concept paper from experts at Western Resource Advocates and Water Balance Consulting shows that flexible water conservation pools can help get the Colorado River through dry years like this one.

The Colorado River’s two major reservoirs are approaching historic lows, threatening the infrastructure that delivers water and hydropower to communities across the West. The current tools to address the problem are limited.

The guidelines for managing the river expire this year. There are several management alternatives being considered that incorporate new flexible conservation pools.

A new concept paper shows how these pools can protect the Colorado River Basin and minimize conflict in critically dry years.

Imagine that you’re about to overdraw your checking account. Would you transfer money from your savings to avoid overdraft fees? Cut back on your spending?

Water managers on the Colorado River are faced with a similar problem, and few people are happy with the options available.

The Colorado River Basin just experienced its warmest winter on record. Snow water equivalent, or the amount of water in snowpack, is on track to be one of the lowest on record. An unprecedented March heat wave quickly melted much of what little snow was available to feed the river. And the West is projected to continue getting hotter and drier in the coming years.

The Colorado River Basin isn’t dealing with a temporary water shortage, it’s bankrupt.

The river’s two major reservoirs — Lake Powell and Lake Mead — were constructed with a much bigger river in mind. Today, these reservoirs are approaching historic lows, threatening the infrastructure that delivers water and power to communities across the West. The Bureau of Reclamation forecasted that Lake Powell could drop below 3,500 feet, or the level needed to protect hydropower production, this summer if no actions were taken.

We are about to overdraw the account, resulting in significant consequences for the West.

Figure 2. Diagram showing schematic of Glen Canyon Dam elevations at which Lake Powell’s waters can be released downstream, and the volumes of water defined by these elevations. Active storage between 3370 and 3500 ft is not realistically accessible for continuous downstream release without risk to engineering infrastructure at the dam and powerplant. Hydroelectricity cannot be produced below 3490 ft, and 3500 ft has been established as a minimum safe level for intake through the penstocks.

Under current management guidelines, Reclamation only has two options to put more water in Lake Powell, and both come with drawbacks. The first is to release water from upstream reservoirs into Lake Powell. This is a stopgap measure — like drawing on your savings account to cover an unexpected expense. There are limits to how much water can be moved and how often. Upstream reservoirs must be allowed to refill after the water is transferred to Lake Powell.

The second option is to reduce Lake Powell releases. However, holding too much water in Lake Powell could trigger litigation from the Lower Basin states as soon as this fall, claiming that the Upper Basin is violating the Colorado River Compact.

Reclamation announced in late April that it will be using both options simultaneously keep water levels in Lake Powell from dropping below 3,500 feet. The agency plans to release between 660,000 and 1 million acre-feet of water from an upstream reservoir while reducing Lake Powell releases by 1.48 million acre-feet. While Reclamation is trying to protect the river with limited tools, the Basin states are not thrilled with the plan. The Upper Basin was quick to point out that increased releases from upstream reservoirs will have significant impacts on local economies and is not an action that can be taken year after year. Meanwhile, the Lower Basin says withholding additional water in Lake Powell could lead to the Upper Basin violating the Colorado River Compact.

The plan also might not work. It is expected to keep Lake Powell just above 3,500 feet — dangerously close to the hydropower intakes. This could potentially draw air into the intakes, damaging equipment and resulting in a complete loss of hydropower production.

The river’s current management guidelines are clearly no match for climate change. We are drawing down our savings in the hope of just barely making ends meet. It might not be enough, and it’s not something we can afford to do every year.

A NEW WAY FORWARD

The river is undergoing dramatic changes. What if we had a new management tool that allowed us to change with it?

WRA worked with Kevin Wheeler at Water Balance Consulting to find out.

We found that flexible water conservation pools can help maintain critical reservoir elevations and minimize the need to release large volumes of water from upstream reservoirs, while also not exasperating compact compliance issues.

We looked at the Intentionally Created Surplus (ICS) program — an existing water conservation program in the Lower Basin — to explore how this might work.

Currently, the ICS program allows water users in the Lower Basin to save water and store it in Lake Mead through actions like increasing irrigation efficiency or fallowing farmland. There is a little over 3 million acre-feet of ICS water currently being stored in Lake Mead.

This water has the potential to provide enormous benefit to Lake Powell as well, but there are institutional barriers to moving it. The water level in Lake Mead is currently used to determine how much water is released to the Lower Basin. Under the current guidelines, moving ICS water out of the reservoir would lower Lake Mead and impact Lower Basin shortages.

The key to solving this problem is creating a conservation pool that is “operationally neutral,” allowing saved water to be moved between reservoirs without impacting Lower Basin shortages or affecting compact compliance. This would allow ICS water to be stored in Lake Mead or Lake Powell — wherever it is needed to protect infrastructure and river health.

There is no infrastructure on the Colorado River to physically move water upstream; however, water can be transferred between reservoirs through adjustments to dam releases and careful accounting. For example, reservoir releases from Lake Powell could be physically reduced by 1 million acre-feet to “move” 1 million acre-feet of ICS water upstream from Lake Mead to Lake Powell. Releases from Lake Powell could later be increased by 1 million acre-feet to physically transfer the water downstream back to Lake Mead.

Because this water is operationally neutral, it would not be considered when calculating Lake Mead water levels and so moving it would not affect Lower Basin shortages. It also would not affect the 10-year Lee Ferry average. On paper, it would be as though there was no reduction in Lake Powell releases to “move” water upstream. This avoids exasperating compact compliance issues. This is in contrast to the operations Reclamation is undertaking this year, which will result in actual decreased Lake Powell releases, affect the 10-year Lee Ferry average, and bring compact implications as a result.

Our analysis shows that if a flexible conservation pool had been available this year, it could have significantly reduced the need to pull additional water from upstream reservoirs — helping to address concerns raised by the Upper Basin states. It also would have minimized compact compliance implications — helping to address issues raised by the Lower Basin.

The guidelines for managing the river expire this year, and there are several new management alternatives on the tablethat incorporate flexible conservation pools. Our analysis shows how these pools could work to protect the river and our communities in critically hot and dry years like this one.

Drawing down our savings isn’t going to work in the long term. We need sustainable solutions to ensure the infrastructure that delivers water and power to the West can function in dry years.

Download the concept paper.

Lake Powell and Glen Canyon Dam. Photo credit: Western Resource Advocates

When snow #runoff is low, so are our spirits — Auden Schendler (writersontherange.org) #snopwack #RoaringForkRiver

Click the link to read the article on the Writers on the Range website (Auden Schendler):

May 11, 2026

At this time of year in Western Colorado, my friends and I watch rivers. We’re eagerly anticipating a bruising spring runoff and the start of kayak season. When it arrives, many of us become obsessive, meeting daily after work to paddle.

Not this year. In one of the driest springs in Colorado history, our watershed’s snowpack was 26% of normal on April 1. The impact on fire danger, drought, agriculture, economy, and ecology is going to be profound.

Colorado statewide annual temperature anomaly (°F) with respect to the 1901-2000 average. Graphic credit: Colorado Climate Center

But this is the new normal in a climate-changed world. Colorado has warmed 2.3° F since only 1980. The Upper Colorado River Basin suffered close to record-low precipitation in March—normally our snowiest month—and record heat. Snowpack peaked at the earliest date and lowest amount ever. This collapsed the ski industry, and many resorts closed in what is typically their most profitable month.

A kayaker runs the 6-foot drop of Slaughterhouse Falls on the Roaring Fork River near Aspen in June 2021. Recreation proponents gave six recommendations to the CWCB to better elevate recreation in the update to Colorado’s Water Plan. CREDIT: BRENT GARDNER-SMITH/ASPEN JOURNALISM

The kayak run my friends and I like best is called, ominously, “Slaughterhouse.” It flows through an alpine forest at 7,000 feet, near the town of Woody Creek. Kayakers must navigate tight channels and churning holes, steering around boulders the size of VW buses.

Though many of us have kayaked this stretch hundreds of times, we never paddle the same river twice, to echo Heraclitus, because flows are always minutely different, as is the turbidity of the water, the quality of sun, or clouds. At the same time, there is a Zen to the repetitiveness: a remembered left turn below a spruce tree to hit an eddy; a crucial line that splits two rocks; the plant smells we recall from last year and the previous 30.

This friend group of men in their forties and fifties—a photographer, a paramedic, a ski mountain manager, a caterer—has become attuned to the river. We continuously observe snowpack and storm cycles throughout winter, with an eye to runoff. We know that when it reaches 500 cubic feet per second (cfs) we can float Slaughterhouse for the first time. 800 to 1000 cfs is juicy, a joyous party, and that level often holds steady for many weeks. The water gets pushy around 1300 cfs, and some of us stop paddling when it gets too scary. No need to worry this spring: Slaughterhouse, which can peak above 7,000 cfs, topped out at about 250 cfs.

We know each other like we do the river. Banter focuses on making fun of our paddling. One meme of an upside-down kayak shared on a group chat read: “Roses are red, violets are blue, I lied about having a solid roll…where are you?” If you do happen to swim out of your boat, the group instantly switches from a bunch of jerks to a coordinated rescue team. Expect to hear “Are you doing OK?” for the rest of the day.

Later, expect to be made fun of at that location for the rest of your life. When we gather at the takeout, we drink beer and reflect on our glories and failures, loitering past dinnertime.

To be a good kayaker, you have to be willing to suffer the consequences of a mistake. Typically, that means being upside down in cold water, unable to breathe or see. Boaters call this underwater experience “the white room,” or “being Maytagged.” You accept the fact of an inevitable frigid swim, because, as old kayakers say, “We’re all between swims.” This season, the mistake we must endure is a societal one.

In a sense, kayakers are prepared for the hot, smoky summer ahead: We’ve learned to endure some inevitable pain. Harder to manage will be the loss. We’ll have to forgo the camaraderie, ritual and traditions that come from decades of recreation tied to seasons, place and environment. The truth is, as the planet warms, we’re in danger of losing a sense of who we are.

The philosopher Glenn Albrecht coined a term for this: solastalgia, the distress caused by environmental change, creating a “homesickness you feel while still at home.”

It is widely understood that climate change will forever alter our physical world. Indeed, it already has. It’s less obvious that it’s also coming for our friendships, our identity and the spirit and rhythm of our lives.

Auden Schendler is a contributor to Writers on the Range, writersontherange.org, an independent nonprofit dedicated to spurring lively conversation about the West. He lives in Basalt, Colorado, and is the author of Terrible Beauty: Reckoning with Climate Complicity and Rediscovering Our Soul.

Why a #Montana rancher is speaking up for climate action: Intense wildfires, storms, and floods have damaged Steve Held’s ranch and put his cattle in danger — Sarah Kennedy (YaleClimateConnections.org)

Click the link to read the article on the Yale Climate Connections website (Sarah Kennedy):

May 5, 2026

Steve Held of Broadus, Montana, comes from a long line of ranchers going back to the late 1800s.

Held: “We do love the lifestyle. People who do it for a living have to love it, but it’s not because it’s easy or beautiful.”

He says ranching is tough. And the warming climate is making it even harder.

As temperatures rise, winter snowpack is shrinking – which reduces water supplies in the spring and summer.

Held recalls that when he was growing up …

Held: “We would get a snow around Christmas that would last until the end of March. The snow would melt off … come running down the creeks and the hills and fill up all of our ponds, and that’s what we relied on for water. It doesn’t happen anymore.”

And more intense storms, floods, and wildfires have put his cattle in danger and caused expensive damage to the ranch.

Held says it’s no mystery what’s happening. Scientists have been warning about climate change for decades, so he says it should not be a partisan issue.

Held: “And it’s absolutely shameful that politics have turned this into a kicking ball. And the people who are suffering are the people on the land.”

So Held wants people from all walks of life to come together, acknowledge the danger of climate change, and take action.

Montana Rivers Map via Geology.com, https://geology.com/lakes-rivers-water/montana.shtml

In a drier future, 20-30 desal plants could be needed to replace the water Southern California currently imports

By Robert Marcos

In a drier future, if Southern California’s municipalities lost all access to imported water, they’d need twenty to thirty new desalination plants – each producing 50 million gallons of water a day, to make up for the 2.6 million acre feet of water that the region’s 19 million residents currently use.¹

Unfortunately we know that desalination plants take far too long to build, require far too much energy, and at $3000 to $3600 per acre foot – the water they produce is far too expensive.² This is why the state’s official “water supply strategy” promotes the development of wastewater recycling and stormwater capture first, with desalination considered as a last resort.³

Wastewater Recycling

The recycling of wastewater is a favored solution because it treats water that’s already within the system. Wastewater recycling – also known as water reclamation, follows a multi-stage purification process that accelerates the Earth’s natural water cycle. It typically begins with primary treatment, where wastewater is held in settling tanks to allow heavy solids to sink and be removed. In secondary treatment, oxygen is added to aeration tanks to help naturally occurring microbes consume dissolved organic pollutants. The process then moves to tertiary treatment, involving fine-grained filtration through sand, coal, or membranes, followed by disinfection using chlorine or ultraviolet (UV) light to kill remaining pathogens. For potable (drinking) water applications, advanced systems may add reverse osmosis and advanced oxidation to remove trace chemicals and salts. This treated water is then distributed through a dedicated “purple pipe” system, separate from standard drinking water lines, for uses like landscape irrigation, industrial cooling, and groundwater replenishment.⁴

San Diego’s multi-year “Pure Water” wastewater recycling project is expected to cost over $5 billion, with Phase 1 alone costing approximately $1.5 billion and future phases projected to significantly raise the total expense. Phase 1 is expected to produce 30 million gallons of potable water daily, with the entire system potentially costing $5 billion or more.⁵

Stormwater capture

In a city like Los Angeles, stormwater capture is the process of collecting rainfall and urban runoff from open spaces, rooftops, and streets to either use directly or—more commonly—to allow it to soak into the ground to recharge local groundwater basins for future use. This is achieved through large-scale infrastructure like spreading grounds and dams, as well as community-level projects like rain gardens and permeable pavement. While the infrastructure itself is highly reliable—with the county currently capable of capturing enough water to serve millions of people during wet years—the overall supply remains inconsistent because it depends entirely on highly variable seasonal rainfall. For instance, capture totals can swing drastically from roughly 120 billion gallons in a record wet season to just 11.9 billion gallons in a dry one, making it a valuable but unpredictable supplement to the region’s imported water sources.⁶

The cost to create a stormwater capture system in Los Angeles varies drastically based on scale, ranging from $100 for a simple home rain barrel to over $70 million for massive regional infrastructure projects.⁷

‘No good news’: #ColoradoRiver forecast gets historically bad — Scott Franz (KUNC.org) #COriver #aridification

A person looks out over the Colorado River near Page, Arizona on November 2, 2022. The seven states that use its water are caught in a standoff about how to share the shrinking supply. They say they want to avoid a court battle, but some states are quietly preparing for that outcome. Alex Hager/KUNC

Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Scott Franz):

May 8, 2026

This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.

A federal hydrologist appeared to be momentarily at a loss for words Thursday as he described how dire the latest forecast has gotten for how much water will flow through the Colorado River Basin this summer.

“Really no good news this winter,” Cody Moser with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center said before taking a long pause on a webinar.

Moser went on to describe how just 800,000 acre-feet of water is projected to flow into Lake Powell, the upper basin’s largest reservoir, through July. That’s 13% of its average supply. It would also be the lowest summer inflow in the reservoir’s history. The projected flows into Powell have dramatically decreased over the last two months.

The worsening outlook is driven by record-low snowpack around the west and a March heat wave.

“We did see a cool down and a wetter April, but it pales in comparison to this five, six month stretch of just record warm and dry weather that we’ve seen,” he said.

Falling water levels at Lake Powell recently prompted the Interior Department to take emergency measures to prop it up. The goal is to stop it from getting so low that it can no longer produce hydroelectricity for several states in the west. Some forecasts have it reaching that level as soon as this summer.

The rescue plan involves taking a massive amount of water from the Flaming Gorge reservoir on the Wyoming-Utah border upstream and sending it down to Powell.

Meanwhile, there’s been some recent activity in the stalled negotiations involving how the water should be shared and conserved among the seven states depending on it.

The upper basin states have been at an impasse with the lower basin states over how much each basin should have to cut back its use.

Last week, Nevada, California and Arizona made a new short-term pitch for how to avert an ongoing crisis in water shortages.

The states said they would conserve as much as an additional one-million acre feet of water per year through 2028.

Colorado’s water negotiator gave the new pitch a tepid response Monday.

Becky Mitchell said in a statement that the proposal is a “good first step,” but it would be “unsustainable.”

“While the lower division states have made progress, more is needed to protect the Colorado River system now and into the future,” she said. “These differences highlight the urgent need to come back together with the help of a mediator.”

Contamination, climate change and political drama stall clean water for Colorado’s Arkansas Valley: ‘If you don’t have clean water, you really don’t have anything.’ — Lucas Bessire (High Country News) #ArkansasRiver

Unburied sections of the Arkansas Valley Conduit in Pueblo, Colorado. Photo credit: Michael Ciaglo

Click the link to read the article on the High Country News website (Lucas Bessire):

May 11, 2026

The western stretch of the Arkansas River, which flows from its headwaters in the Rocky Mountains across the plains of southeastern Colorado, is in trouble. That trouble is compounded by uncertainty about what, exactly, is polluting and drying the river, and how such problems can be fixed.

Overshadowed by the ongoing political brawl over the Colorado River, the Arkansas River Valley rarely appears in national news. But since Dec. 30, when President Donald Trump vetoed a bipartisan bill that would have secured favorable terms for funding to complete a $1.39 billion, 130-mile water pipeline, the region has become the stage for yet more drama about water in the Western U.S.

Arkansas Valley Conduit map via the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District (Chris Woodka) June 2021.

The Arkansas Valley Conduit is part of a decades-long effort to replace the dwindling, contaminated water in this stretch of the Arkansas Valley with clean water from Colorado’s Western Slope and the Pueblo Reservoir. If completed, it will supply water to roughly 50,000 valley residents, many of whom can no longer count on municipal supplies for safe drinking water.

Pundits portrayed Trump’s veto as retaliation against Colorado politicians: Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, who helped force the November vote for the release of the Epstein files, and Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, who has resisted pressure to pardon Tina Peters, a county clerk in western Colorado convicted of tampering with voting machines during the 2020 election. Sens. Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper, both Democrats, condemned the administration for “putting personal and political grievances ahead of Americans.” The Salida-based Ark Valley Voice declared a “Reign of Retribution Punishing Deep Red Southeastern Colorado.” The New York Times, emphasizing the same irony, observed that “A Trump Veto Leaves Republicans in Colorado Parched and Bewildered.”

For those managing the project, the veto is a setback but not a showstopper. The first dozen miles of the conduit have already been completed, and enough capital is on hand for at least three more years of construction. “Some (coverage) has been saying it’s the end of the project, which is totally false,” said Chris Woodka, senior policy and issues manager of the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District. “It’s still being built; the veto was not for any reason that had anything to do with the project, and we’re working in every way we can to make this affordable.”

For valley residents, the issue is personal. This rural region is more culturally aligned with western Kansas than with Front Range cities. Like people throughout the Great Plains, the local residents are grappling with eroding social services and the rising cost of living. The scarcity of safe water magnifies uncertainty. “If you don’t have clean water,” said Jack Goble, general manager of the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District and a sixth-generation rancher, “you really don’t have anything.”

“HOW EASY IT IS,” wrote William Mills in his 1988 book The Arkansas, “to take a river for granted.”

The Arkansas Valley of Colorado is the ancestral homelands of the Plains Apache, Comanche, Kiowa, Cheyenne and Arapaho peoples. A geographical corridor across the Southern Plains, it was a route for incursions and ethnic cleansing by non-Native fur trappers, traders, military expeditions, hide hunters, railroad developers and settlers. Those settlers include my ancestors; I grew up in southwest Kansas, where generations of my family farmed and ranched along the dry Cimarron River. The Arkansas Valley, with its dwindling water and flatlands, feels like home.

Straight line diagram of the Lower Arkansas Valley ditches via Headwaters Magazine

By 1900, settlers had diverted the Arkansas into a maze of ditches. Irrigation and migrant labor supported sugar beet factories, vegetable cultivation and Rocky Ford’s famous melons. Such practices remade the riverbed, increased salinity, and reduced flow. As with the Colorado River, water rights were assigned partly on wishful thinking. Today, the Arkansas Valley is one of the region’s most over-appropriated basins, and the river’s annual flow has dramatically declined. A short distance past the Kansas line, the river is entirely dry.

The Arkansas is being drained in new ways. Climate change and a record-breaking snow drought are intensifying the scarcity. Over the last half-century, growing Front Range cities have purchased water rights from farmers in the valley. Exchange agreements allow cities to swap these rights for ones farther upstream, leaving the downstream flow diminished and dirtier. Between 1978 and 2022, nearly 44% of the irrigated farmland in the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District was taken out of production.

Rocky Ford Melon Day 1893 via the Colorado Historical Society

Critics call it “buy-and-dry.” They say the removal of water has disastrous consequences for an agricultural region. “If you take all of that water out of an economy that completely depends on it,” Goble said, “it just breaks a community.” Faced with the prospect of litigation from local water districts, cities like Aurora claim to be developing more sustainable arrangements.

THE ARKANSAS’ WATER is changing, too. The river is diverted into dozens of canals and fields. What doesn’t evaporate or get absorbed returns as runoff or sinks through the alluvial gravels that connect to the riverbed. Each time a drop of water returns, it carries more dissolved minerals. As the river’s volume lessens, the concentration increases in what is left. By the time the river reaches the Kansas border, the water regularly contains 4,000 milligrams or more per liter — making it about eight times saltier than a typical sports drink and unsuitable for growing many crops.

Minerals are not the only problem. The river basin and alluvial gravels are also contaminated with radium and uranium. Last year, a study by the Colorado Geological Survey found that the levels of radioactivity in more than 60% of the private wells sampled in the valley exceeded federal standards.

The radionuclides are called “naturally occurring.” But natural uranium usually stays locked in rock. In the valley, irrigated agriculture sets it into motion. Uranium is mobilized by complex interactions between oxygen, sediments, water, microbes and nitrate. Nitrate is a common fertilizer. One study found that valley farmers had over-applied it for decades. This pulls out radionuclides, turns them loose, and flushes them into the river’s shallow aquifer. Levels rise as the river moves east through agricultural lands.

Contamination is not news in the valley. People have worked on cooperative solutions for decades. To meet safe water standards while the conduit is under construction, the towns of La Junta and Las Animas installed filtration systems. But cleaning the water creates hyper-contaminated wastewater, which is currently diluted and poured back into the river. “The only true solution,” said Bill Long, president of the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District board, “is a new source.”

Aerial Photo of AVC Construction. Credit: Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District

THE CONDUIT WOULD PROVIDE safe water to a region too often disregarded. But the project also raises questions about what can truly be bypassed and what cannot, and about the fate of the river itself.

Lincoln Park/Cotter Mill superfund site via the Environmental Protection Agency

Near Cañon City, upstream from the conduit, the Lincoln Park/Cotter Superfund site contains a former uranium mill, millions of tons of radioactive waste, coal mineworks and tailing ponds. The site sits less than two miles from the Arkansas River. It is known to be contaminated with the same compounds — radionuclides, selenium, sulfates — that affect communities downstream.

Local residents have worked for decades to raise awareness and hold a revolving cast of agencies, regulators and owners accountable for the pollution. “It has taken us a lifetime,” said Jeri Fry, co-chair of Colorado Citizens Against Toxic Waste. “As the years have gone by, we have been the ones holding the memory.”

Without memory, they say, contamination is normalized as background, treated as an isolated issue, or denied. “We’ve been stonewalled on many of our legitimate concerns,” said Carol Dunn, vice-chairperson of the Lincoln Park/Cotter Community Advisory Group. She believes state regulators avoid testing for fear of uncovering inconvenient facts.

The most inconvenient would suggest connections between contamination in the valley and industrial pollution upstream, which affects not only Cañon City but the communities of Leadville, Pueblo and Fountain Creek. For Fry, all of the known and unknown pressures on the river point to the same fundamental problem. “We are not treating our water as though it is a sacred thing,” she said. “And it is. It’s got to be.”

Map of the Arkansas River drainage basin. Created using USGS National Map and NASA SRTM data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=79039596

Saguache County places moratorium on data center projects: County Commissioners want time to determine land use regulations for any rural data center projects — Owen Woods (AlamosaCitizen.com) #RioGrande #SanLuisValley

Typical cold aisle configuration with server rack fronts facing each other and cold air distributed through the raised floor. By Robert.Harker – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=29153430

Click the link to read the article on the Alamosa Citizen website (Owen Woods):

May 8, 2026

Saguache County adopted a resolution on Tuesday, May 5, 2026 that placed an emergency temporary moratorium on any data center projects within the county for six months.

Some language was changed in the draft resolution during the meeting, but the commissioners said the resolution was drafted following their April 21 meeting where San Luis Valley Rural Electric Cooperative CEO Eric Eriksen said that the power company had received three inquiries for “rural data center” projects in the Valley.

A representative with SLVREC said Eriksen was out of the office this week, so a voicemail was left with him on Tuesday morning.

Alamosa County Administrator Roni Wisdom sent the Citizen a copy of SLVREC’s informational newsletter that breaks down what a “rural data center” is. In that letter given to the Alamosa County Commissioners, Eriksen said that over the past year, SLVREC “have been in discussion with three rural data center developers exploring opportunities.”

The Saguache County moratorium is necessary “for the immediate preservation and protection of the public health, safety, and welfare of the citizens of Saguache County.”

“Everybody in our county is upset about data centers,” said Saguache County Commissioner Liza Marron.

The primary purpose for enacting an emergency temporary moratorium on the acceptance, processing, or approval of data center projects is “to provide the County sufficient time” to develop and amend the Saguache County Land Use Code, Standards, other sections of the Land Use Code, and Saguache County 1041 Regulations.

Any changes to the land use code requires a review and recommendation by the County Planning Commission and a public hearing.

“The intent of the new Land Use Code and 1041 provisions prepared and implemented during the moratorium period is to establish an improved process and standards regarding requests for Data Center projects,” the resolution reads.

“County Land Use Department has informed the BOCC that it has received inquiries regarding data center projects and the current regulations in the Land Use Code,” the original draft read. This turned out not to be the case.

Saguache Land Use Administrator Amber Wilson said her office has not had any official inquiries for data centers. “No one has come to us,” she said.

The language in the paragraph of the moratorium had been changed on May 5 to reflect the information stemming from SLVREC.

The Saguache County commissioners can put the moratorium in place for the purposes of “prohibiting or regulating in any part of or all of the unincorporated territory of the county used or to be used for any business, residential, industrial or commercial purpose….”

Meanwhile in Alamosa County, Land Use and Building Director Richard Hubler told the Citizen, “we have not received any applications for data centers, although I’ve had a couple questions about them, including a call from someone related to this small scalecontainer based project”

Hubler said that Alamosa County doesn’t currently have anything specific codes to address data centers, but he said the county is currently “talking about updates that would likely end up with some new language about stand-alone data centers as a primary use, and something related to size.”

“Certainly the Hyperscale centers like the Front Range are seeing could have a huge impact on housing and energy needs,” Hubler said, “in addition to water. But the smaller ones like that container may be a good fit for existing capacity on the SLVREC system.”

He noted there are some small data centers that assist agriculture operations and also the local hospital system.

“We even have server rooms at the county buildings, but these are all ancillary to the principal use, not developed for commercial sale/rental applications, and are not as much part of the current ‘data center’ conversation which focuses heavily on AI.”

This map shows the current data centers, their power usage and location. Though it has yet to be built yet, the BlueSky AI project in Huerfano County is already on the map.

“Our high altitude cool sunshine air, your SLV Rural Electric Cooperative and Ciello broadband are perhaps the most ideal conditions in the nation for a rural data center,” Eriksen wrote. “That gives us a competitive advantage.”

Eriksen wrote mainly about the economic and technological benefits of a data center in rural areas.

“Not all data centers are the same,” he wrote. “Not every data center is a giant, power-hungry, watering-guzzling complex like the ones you see in national news.”

He compared the different types of data centers: Hyperscale data centers, regional data centers, and edge or rural data centers. Hyperscale data centers require 100 megawatts of power or more and thousands of square feet. Regional data centers are described as mid-sized facilities that require strong infrastructure, but are often operating on less than 100 megawatts.

The rural data centers, Eriksen said, “are the most relevant for us… Rural data centers are small, efficient facilities — often the size of a modular 20’ or 40’ metal container, a home or a small commercial building.”

He wrote that SLVREC’s largest “electric member” is about 1.5 megawatts.

These data centers, Eriksen wrote, require far less power than hyperscale data centers, operating at 50 kilowatts up to 50 megawatts. These centers are said to commonly use air-cooling or closed-loop refrigeration instead of consuming water.

In SLVREC’s position, the agriculture industry’s energy demand “has been declining.” The company sees the “underutilized capacity” as an opportunity “to serve five, 10, 20, 50 megawatts or more of rural data centers.”

According to SLVREC, there are seven long-haul fiber routes into and out of the Valley, “with terabytes of unused capacity that is ideal for data centers.”

Eriksen said that reducing the “digital distance” between the San Luis Valley “and the rest of the world is transformational. When data is processed closer to home, everything works better and faster. Rural data centers can help lower rates.”

Those three developers that SLVREC has been in communication with “haven’t pulled the trigger yet, but if one does, then you’ll know it’ll be beneficial for all of us,” wrote Eriksen.

As drought worsens, Western states brace for wildfires, water shortages — Alex Brown (UtahNewsDispatch.com) #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the Utah News Dispatch website (Alex Brown):

May 9, 2026

From the Rockies to the Cascades to the Sierra Nevada, mountainsides across the West are sparsely covered by the snow that usually blankets the high country well into the summer.

That snowpack is like a savings account that the West draws on when the hot, dry months arrive. It moistens the landscape as it melts, lessening the risk of severe wildfire. The runoff feeds into river basins, and the swelling waterways provide power to hydroelectric dams, irrigation to farmers and drinking water to cities.

This year, Western states are heading into the summer with a desperately low balance — threatening wildfires, drinking water, crops, electricity and more.

“This has been an extremely poor year,” said Sharon Megdal, director of the Water Resources Research Center, a research unit at the University of Arizona. “This has gotten a lot of people concerned and alarmed.”

While a late-season storm brought heavy snow to parts of the Rockies this month, the region remains in a deep snowpack deficit.

As warmer weather arrives, states are preparing for a dangerous wildfire season across the drought-stricken West. Farmers and cities are bracing for potential cutbacks in their water allocations from rivers that have less to give. Fisheries managers are watching for low river flows that could threaten vital salmon runs. And worsening conditions could threaten the supply of hydropower that provides cheap, clean electricity to many Western states.

A hot, dry winter

Across nearly the entire West, states spent the winter waiting for snow that rarely arrived. Ski resorts lost millions of visitors as they struggled to stay open. Then in March, a record-breaking heat wave settled across the region, shrinking the already paltry snowpack.

“It’s unheard of,” Megdal said. “Things were already looking bad in January, but if you follow the projections, they had to keep revising the numbers downward because the snow just never came and we had this hugely hot period in March.”

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map May 10, 2026.

The federal National Water and Climate Center produces a real-time map showing the snow water equivalent in river basins across the country — a measurement of how much moisture is being held in those mountaintop savings accounts.

The majority of the West is bright red, indicating that snowpack is at less than 50% of the median level for this time of year. Yellow and orange cover most of the remaining areas, showing regions that are still well below the median.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of the country in abnormally dry or drought conditions, aside from the Great Lakes region and some other parts of the Midwest.

West Fork Fire June 20, 2013 photo the Pike Hot Shots Wildfire Today

Wildfire

For many Western states, the most imminent threat from the dry winter is the prospect of a dangerous wildfire season.

Already, wildfires in Nebraska have burned hundreds of thousands of acres, shattering records and setting the stage for a record wildfire year.

The wildland fire outlook maps produced by the National Interagency Fire Center show above-normal fire risk spreading across much of the West by June and July.

“There’s a lot of red on the map,” said Matthew Dehr, wildland fire meteorologist with the Washington state Department of Natural Resources.

Dave Upthegrove, Washington’s public lands commissioner, said his agency is preparing for fire season as normal but with a heightened awareness that this summer could be demanding. He’s focused on educating residents about the risks, noting that 90% of wildfires in Washington are caused by humans.

“What we’re likely to see are wildfires moving more quickly through forests,” he said. “When we do have a large fire event, it’s likely to move faster, be more significant.”

He also noted that this year is Washington’s fourth consecutive year of drought conditions, making trees more susceptible to diseases and pests and compounding wildfire risk.

Dehr said spring rains could provide a bit of a buffer before the heat of July and August, but a recent stretch of sunny weeks has yet to provide relief.

Upthegrove noted that the challenging conditions across much of the West could make it more difficult for states to send wildfire crews to each other’s aid, if many states are battling big blazes simultaneously.

“As the climate crisis pushes a forest health crisis pushes a wildfire crisis, it’s going to stress the whole system, not just in our state,” he said.

Low water supplies

Many Western states also rely on snowpack to feed rivers that provide irrigation for farming and the water supply for cities. In particular, the Colorado River provides water for tens of millions of people across seven states, a region that has grown even as the river’s supply has dwindled in recent decades. Reservoirs that were full at the turn of the century are now nearing critically low levels.

“There hasn’t been enough flow in the river to meet all these expected demands, even in the good years,” said Megdal, the water researcher. “We’ve used up our savings and storage, so now what do we do?”

Water allocations for states, tribes and farmers in the region are governed by a complicated and fiercely contested system known as the Colorado River Compact. In recent years, cutbacks due to the low supply reduced the water allocation for central Arizona, including all of the water for agricultural users.

Now, states are fighting over even less water and struggling to negotiate who should bear the cost. Last week, Arizona, California and Nevada submitted a proposal to federal officials that would impose further cutbacks over the next two years in order to buy time for a longer-term deal.

“It’s turning out to be very hard to get the states to agree on how to slice up a much smaller pie,” Megdal said. “There are scenarios that are not zero probability that are catastrophic to the region.”

If the states are unable to reach an agreement, allocation for the river’s diminished water will be determined by federal regulators under the “law of the river.” Cutbacks imposed by the feds could fall heavily on central Arizona, Megdal said, cutting the supply for Phoenix, Tucson and some tribal nations.

Such uncertainty in the Colorado River basin and elsewhere “leaves farmers making planting decisions now without knowing whether sufficient water will be available to carry crops through harvest,” the American Farm Bureau Federation wrote in an April report.

The lack of water could force farmers to remove trees or vineyards, the Farm Bureau noted, or reduce cattle herds if the parched landscape does not supply enough forage.

Meanwhile, rivers running at a slow trickle could reduce the hydroelectric power produced by dams across the West. Across 13 Western states, hydropower accounts for nearly a quarter of electrical generation.

The Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona, which forms Lake Powell, produces about 5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity each year, enough to power nearly half a million homes. But the lake level may soon fall below a threshold from which the dam can no longer generate power.

“Hydropower is so incredibly important because it has been the lowest-cost power for many in the West,” Megdal said. “There are big implications for the energy grid and the cost of electricity.”

Stateline reporter Alex Brown can be reached at abrown@stateline.org.

This story was originally produced by Stateline, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Utah News Dispatch, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.

Created by Imgur user Fejetlenfej , a geographer and GIS analyst with a ‘lifelong passion for beautiful maps.’ It highlights the massive expanse of river basins across the country – in particular, those which feed the Mississippi River, in pink.

Colorado April 2026 Climate Summary — #Colorado Climate Center

Click the link to read the summary on the Colorado State University website. Here’s an excerpt:

After a record-shattering March, April 2026 seemed at least a little more normal in Colorado. April was actually cooler than March, which doesn’t happen very often. But it was yet another warmer-than-average month, and it was very dry in eastern Colorado. Flash drought set in across the eastern Plains. The mountains had near- to above-average precipitation in April, which slowed the melting of mountain snowpack. But statewide snowpack was still at record-low levels as of the end of April. Water Year 2026 thus far remains the warmest on record by a large margin.

#Snowpack news May 11, 2026

Colorado SNOTEL basin-filled map May 10, 2026.

‘No good news’: #ColoradoRiver projected to deliver lowest amount of water ever to #LakePowell: Long-term forecasts from the National Weather Service suggest the drought conditions will get worse before they get better — The #Aspen Times

May 1, 2026 seasonal water supply forecast summary.

Click the link to read the article on The Aspen Times website (Ryan Spencer). Here’s an excerpt:

May 9, 2026

Colorado River Basin Forecast Center Hydrologist Cody Moser was frank on Thursday, May 7, as he gave his final update for the season on conditions across the basin that supplies water for 40 million people. Through a historically hot and dry winter, Moser said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s models for how much water will flow through the Colorado River mostly trended in one direction: downward. The latest models now estimate inflows into Lake Powell — the nation’s second largest reservoir — to be just 800,000 acre-feet this year, which would be the lowest since the reservoir began to fill in 1963.

“So really, just no good news,” he said.

Across the West, there is a dearth of snow remaining in the mountains to melt into the Colorado River’s complex system of tributaries and reservoirs. Since the start of the “water year” in October, the Colorado River Basin above Lake Powell has seen just 79% of normal precipitation, according to the forecast center. The Colorado River Headwaters region, which includes much of northwest Colorado, has had among the lowest precipitation, with less than 70% of normal. The snowpack this past winter peaked about a month early and with snow measurement sites across nearly the entire basin showing record-low water content in the snow, Moser said. In the Colorado River Headwaters region, data show snow-water equivalent peaked 7 inches below normal. In March, an “extreme” heatwave sent temperatures surging 20-30 degrees above normal in many parts throughout the Colorado River Basin, rapidly melting much of the remaining snowpack, he said. With so little snow to melt off, streamflow volumes on the Colorado River near Eagle and Cameo are projected to be the worst on record, according to the forecast center. Meanwhile, streamflow volumes near Kremmling and Glenwood Springs are expected to be the second-worst on record. While some parts of the Colorado River Basin saw precipitation in April that was closer to normal or even slightly above normal, Moser said it remained below normal in the Colorado River Headwaters region. He noted, though, these drought-plagued parts of northwestern Colorado did pick up some more significant precipitation in the first week of May.

Happy Mother’s Day

Helping local wildlife to hydrate…

by Robert Marcos

As record-breaking heatwaves and droughts become more frequent, natural sources of water that insects and wildlife have historically depended upon are drying up. In response a growing number of homeowners are transforming their yards into life-saving “hydration hubs”. In addition to serving the needs of animals these simple actions help people to move from regret to action and then even pleasure as they watch deer, opossums, bees, and other wild animals obtain lifesaving water.¹

young deer drinking from birdbath — ^{Young mule deer drinking from a bird bath. Photo on Pinterest by Susan Sam 2018.}

Deer act as vital ecosystem engineers by managing plant growth and promoting biodiversity through their grazing habits. As they move across various habitats, they disperse seeds via their fur and waste, aiding in forest regeneration and the spread of native flora. Furthermore, they serve as a primary food source for large predators, while their carcasses provide essential nutrients to scavengers and the soil, maintaining a balanced and nutrient-rich food web.²

A close-up of an opossum drinking water from a small glass dish, surrounded by a garden setting with plants. — ^{Baby opossum drinking from a pyrex dish. Photo by r/Opossums on Reddit.}

Opossums act as “nature’s sanitation workers” by providing essential pest control and waste removal services right in our backyards. As opportunistic scavengers, they keep neighborhoods clean by consuming overripe fruit, roadkill, and organic waste that might otherwise attract less desirable pests like rats or roaches. They also help maintain ecological balance by hunting common garden nuisances such as snails, slugs, and even venomous snakes, to which they have a natural immunity. Furthermore, their low body temperature makes them highly resistant to rabies, meaning they are far less likely to spread the disease than other urban wildlife.³

A terracotta dish filled with colorful marbles, a smooth stone, and a small seashell, surrounded by water and a mint leaf. — ^{A terracotta bowl filled with water, mint leaves, and brightly-colored marbles to attract bees and pollinators. Photo by Beeappy on Reddit.}

Pollinators like bees, butterflies, and bats are the silent backbone of our local ecosystems, facilitating the reproduction of nearly 80% of the world’s flowering plants and one out of every three bites of food we eat. By transferring pollen between blooms, they ensure the production of the fruits, seeds, and nuts that feed both humans and wildlife, while simultaneously maintaining the genetic diversity necessary for resilient landscapes. Beyond agriculture, their work supports the growth of oxygen-producing plants and provides the foundational habitat for countless other species, making their presence a direct indicator of a healthy, thriving environment.⁴

A hawk standing in a bird bath, surrounded by grass and garden elements. — ^{Red-tailed hawk in a birdbath. Photo by Chris Naftel in the Tehachapi News.}

Red-tailed hawks are apex predators that maintain ecological balance by regulating the populations of small mammals, including rodents, rabbits, and squirrels. By controlling these populations, they provide free pest control for both urban environments and agricultural lands, which helps prevent overgrazing of vegetation and crop damage. Beyond their role as hunters, they are valuable indicator species; their presence and reproductive success reflect the overall health and biodiversity of the local ecosystem. Additionally, their large nests can provide secondary habitat for smaller bird species, such as house sparrows, while their opportunistic scavenging contributes to natural nutrient cycling.⁵

Data Center Watch: Stratos project edition: Massive complex on the banks of the #GreatSaltLake sparks intense opposition — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org)

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

May 8, 2026

📸 Opening Shot 🎞️

A train loads up at the West Elk coal mine near Somerset, Colorado. Like the rest of the coal industry, the West Elk’s days appeared to be numbered a decade ago. But growing power demand from data centers and the Trump administration’s fossil fuel-friendly policies are coming together to breathe new life into mines like this one. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

🤖 Data Center Watch 👾

Yet another scene in the ongoing saga of the Big Data Center Buildup is playing out in Box Elder County, Utah, where the board of commissioners this week approved the proposed Stratos Project data center and energy generation complex, despite widespread and intense local opposition.

Enigmatic entities have forwarded so many proposals for ginormous new data centers in the West that I not only find myself overwhelmed, but I also suspect that many of them are just speculative pipe dreams that will never be built. Similarly, when I read about the inevitable backlash, I tend to think of it as an almost reflexive reaction — something folks have simply been conditioned to do when they hear the terms “AI,” “hyper scale,” and “data center” — that is not based in the actual effects these things will have.

This project — led by investor Kevin O’Leary of the tv-show Shark Tank — appears to be serious, as it comes with the backing of Utah’s Military Installation Development Authority, or MIDA, a state entity created to “further economic development across multiple jurisdictions.” Gov. Spencer Cox has said the state has an “obligation … to allow for these types of data centers to be built,” so it should slide through state permitting without a hitch.

Its potential impacts are not only real, but also scary: The project would ultimately cover about 40,000 acres just north of the Great Salt Lake, its on-site 9-gigawatt power plant would guzzle enormous amounts of natural gas and emit greenhouse gases, and the facility could even create its own extreme heat island. No wonder the pushback is so impassioned.

The scale of this thing is utterly mind-blowing, from its 62-square-mile footprint — equivalent to about 1,000 Walmart super centers — to the size of its gas-fired power plant. Nine gigawatts (or 9,000 megawatts) is enough to power multiple cities and millions of households; all of Utah’s coal, natural gas, and wind and solar facilities combined have a nameplate capacity of just 10.2 GW. While natural gas burns more cleanly than coal, it still emits significant levels of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides, and Project Stratos could increase state’s greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 50%. Natural gas drilling, processing, and transportation bring their own environmental impacts and emit methane — a potent greenhouse gas — as well as other harmful pollutants. The facility would be served by the Ruby Pipeline, which carries gas extracted from Wyoming fields.

The natural gas component fits the pattern of the Big Data Center Buildup. Developers often say they are going to run their centers on solar, wind, geothermal, or even nuclear power. When it comes down to it, however, most of them end up relying on gas, at least initially. The developer of the proposed Prometheus Hyperscale data center along the Natrona-Converse county line in Wyoming initially touted all of the renewable energy opportunities in the area. Now they plan to run entirely on natural gas. Even the ones that do build or buy some solar or wind still tend to use gas-turbines or even diesel generators for backup.

Energy Transfer is looking to build a dedicated natural gas pipeline to serve the giant and controversial Project Jupiter complex in southern New Mexico, and the Bureau of Land Management just issued a right-of-way for the 400 million-cubic-feet-per-day project under its accelerated review process. The developers reacted to vigorous opposition by switching from the planned conventional gas turbines to solid oxide fuel cells. However, the cells are also fueled by natural gas — thus the pipeline —and do have emissions, albeit fewer than conventional turbines.

While many of the largest new data centers plan to build dedicated, on-site power generation, most of the planned facilities and those coming online now will get all or most of their electricity from the power grid. All of this new and projected new demand has utility executives salivating over the prospect of selling more product and raking in more profit. It has also spurred many utilities to cancel plans to shutter dirty coal plants or to make plans to build more natural gas facilities. So even if all of the proposed data centers aren’t realized, their mere possibility could lock in more fossil fuel burning and more pollution for years to come.

The Stratos Project’s potential water use is less clear, but certainly relevant given that it would draw from the same hydrologic system as the Great Salt Lake, which is shrinking. Data centers generate an enormous amount of heat, so they must be cooled, which can consume large quantities of water (and power). The developer says it plans to use a closed-loop cooling system, which must be filled once and so consumes relatively little water. These systems, however, remain relatively uncommon in these facilities. Natural gas turbines can also require large volumes of water for steam generation and cooling, though consumption levels depend on the type of turbine.

In March, the nearby Bar H Ranch proposed transferring its rights to 1,900 acre-feet annually of irrigation water diverted from the Salt Wells Springs Stream for industrial use at the Stratos Project, a.k.a. “Wonder Valley.” The application noted that the water “will be used primarily for power generation. A portion of the water will also be used in connection with a data center that will operate as a closed-loop system.” Thousands of people protested the application, based on its potential impacts on the lake and neighboring wells.

For context, 1,900 acre-feet (or 619 million gallons) would be enough to grow about 1,400 tons of alfalfa, or to irrigate some 500 acres of Utah alfalfa fields for a full growing season. That may not be enough water, however, to serve the natural gas power plant if it runs full-time. A combined cycle natural gas turbine uses about 200 gallons per MWhr of generation. If you assume a 60% capacity factor, then the 9 GW¹plant would produce about 130,000 MWhr per day, leading to an annual water use of about 9.5 billion gallons assuming it runs full-blast 24/7. This is in line with developers’ statements that they would eventually seek up to 13,000 acre-feet of water rights.

The firm withdrew the application this week, just two days after the protest period ended, saying it would submit a new application later (which would void all of the protests and force residents to re-submit their comments and pay the filing fee again).

“The people of Utah, especially those from Box Elder County, filed protests in record numbers because of their concerns about this project,” said Ben Abbott, BYU ecologist and executive director of Grow the Flow, a non-partisan organization dedicated to saving the Great Salt Lake. “For the developer to sidestep the public input process by withdrawing their application and resubmitting later is another breach of trust. I keep trying to give them the benefit of the doubt, but this has all the hallmarks of an out-of-state mega-project with little to no concern for the local community.”

Meanwhile, O’Leary, the project’s pusher, is responding to the opposition by dangling the dim possibility of incorporating other power generation technologies into the mix, and by accusing the ranchers, doctors, and Utah citizens protesting the proposal of being paid, out-of-state agitators. As tired, worn-out, and false the claim is, it does provide an indication that the developers behind this project really don’t care about its potential impacts — or the land, people, or waters it may affect.

Data Centers: The Big Buildup of the Digital Age — Jonathan P. Thompson

The Big Data Center Buildup is increasing demand for all sorts of energy, especially generation fueled by natural gas. This, along with increased liquefied natural gas exports, could drive up methane prices and finally pull the industry out of its 17-year-long slump — at least that’s what the industry is hoping for. And the Trump administration is doing its darndest to clear the way for more oil and gas drilling.

The BLM is currently seeking public input on its plan to sell a whopping 276 oil and gas leases on 357,337 acres in Wyoming. That’s a lot of land that could be targeted for drilling. The administration has leased public land, and issued drilling permits, at an almost unprecedented rate since taking office last January.

Data Dump: One year into the “energy emergency” — Jonathan P. Thompson

🌵 Public Lands 🌲 🏠 Random Real Estate Room 🤑

The effort to tackle the affordable housing crisis in Western amenities community has met up with the public lands, but not in the way you might think. Dozens of low-income housing advocacy groups have come together with environmental groups to form Shared Ground, a new coalition that aims not only to increase access to affordable housing, but also to protect public lands — while also opening the door to selling some of those lands if strict criteria are followed.

The mission of the coalition is summed up in a recent document, noting:

The document criticizes Sen. Mike Lee’s push to sell public land to real estate developers, noting:

Furthermore, the coalition acknowledges that the affordable housing crisis is “fundamentally a policy and investment challenge—not the result of a simple shortage of land.”

Nevertheless, Shared Ground does leave the door open to selling public land for housing, as long as it meets the following criteria (this is from the coalition’s statement):

Demonstrated Public Interest and Community Benefit: Any proposal for the use or disposal of public lands for housing must carry binding, legally enforceable requirements that the land primarily serves affordable housing rather than market-rate and never fuels speculative development. Benefits must flow primarily to local, existing communities—not private developers—and projects should be limited to parcels near existing infrastructure and services.

Careful Inventory and Prioritization: Any such proposal must also require carefulinventory of the public lands under consideration for use or disposal and prioritize already-developed sites over undeveloped land.

Conservation, Cultural, Recreational, and Tribal Safeguards: Public Lands withsignificant conservation, wildlife, cultural, historic, Tribal, or recreational value must be excluded from any conveyance or development proposal. All proposals must include early, meaningful consultation with Tribal Nations, and transparent engagement with local communities, with clear public accountability throughout the process.

On the housing supply-side theory — Jonathan P. Thompson

The Dolores River upstream of its confluence with the San Miguel River is heartbreakingly dry right now, as operators of McPhee Reservoir release 10 cubic feet per-second or less from the dam. After it joins the San Miguel, the river jumps to a meagre 84 cfs as it passes through Gateway. Forecasts are calling for warm temperatures in the coming week, which could raise the San Miguel’s level somewhat, but will also likely melt all the remaining snow in the mountains. Jonathan P. Thompson photo from May 3, 2026.

The Dolores River in Bedrock (in the Paradox Valley of western Colorado) is running at record low levels currently as dam operators hold back as much water as possible in McPhee Reservoir to ration out to irrigators this summer.

While I’m fairly certain the streams all hit peak runoff back in April, I’m not calling the contest yet. April and early May storms and more “normal” temperatures have kept a bit more of the snowpack around than expected, and forecasted heat in coming days will probably melt off what remains pretty quickly, possibly leading to a surge in streamflows. But by the end of next week, I’m predicting all but the highest monitoring stations will be snow-free, meaning spring runoff pretty much will be done and gone.

📸 Parting Shot 🎞️

A collared lizard basks in the early May sun between chasing butterflies and other insects near the Colorado-Utah state line. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

¹ The figures for the size of the power plant vary from place to place. The developer’s “fact sheet” lists 9 GW of Utah power generation, while the water right application said it was for 7.5 GW. Rob Davies’ analysis of the heat output of the facility assumes that the data center’s load will be 9 GW, which would require a 16 GW power facility operating at 55% efficiency.

Paper: Rethinking How the United States and Mexico Share the #ColoradoRiver — Eric Kuhn, Anne Castle, Carlos de la Parra, John Fleck, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, Katherine Tara #COriver #aridification

Click the link to access the report on the University of Colorado website (Eric Kuhn,¹ Anne Castle,² Carlos de la Parra,³ John Fleck,⁴ Jack Schmidt,⁵ Kathryn Sorensen,⁶ Katherine Tara⁷). Here’s the abstract:

March 26, 2026

Since 1945, the United States and Mexico have managed common interests on their two largest shared rivers systems, the Colorado and the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande, under the terms of the 1944 international treaty that was designed from the beginning with tools to adapt to changing hydrologic and societal conditions.

A recent emergency agreement on the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande illustrates what is possible, and with old river management rules on the Colorado both within the United States and between the United States and Mexico about to expire, we are at a moment of opportunity for meaningful change.

The core problem on the Colorado River, which we address in the analysis that follows, arose from decisions made in the first half of the 20th century to allocate fixed volumes of water. As usage patterns and hydrology change in the 21st century, fixed volumes no longer work. A shift to a percentage-based split between the United States and Mexico on the Colorado River, based on the river’s actual natural flow, would provide a solid foundation for the two countries’ joint management of the Colorado in the decades to come.

¹ Retired General Manager, Colorado River Water Conservation District.

² Senior Fellow, Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado Law School; former US Commissioner, Upper Colorado River Commission; former Assistant Secretary for Water and Science, US Dept. of the Interior.

³ Founder and Managing Partner, Centro Luken de Estrategias en Agua y Medio Ambiente, Tijuana, Mexico.

⁴ Writer in Residence, Utton Transboundary Resources Center, University of New Mexico.

⁵ Director, Center for Colorado River Studies, Utah State University; former Chief, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center.

⁶ Director of Research, Kyl Center for Water Policy, Arizona State University; former Director, Phoenix Water Services.

⁷ Staﬀ Attorney, Utton Transboundary Resources Center, University of New Mexico.

Author note

This paper is intended to supplement and complement a series of related papers written in the last year by the authors (or subset of the authors) addressing the critical problems facing the Colorado River Basin, including:

• Eric Kuhn, Anne Castle, & John Fleck, Royce Tipton and the Hydrology of the 1944 Treaty with Mexico, (May 2025). Available at: Kuhn-et-al-2025-Royce-Tipton-Mexico-Hydrology.pdf.

• Anne Castle, John Fleck, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, and Katherine Tara, Essential Pillars for the Post-2026 Colorado River Guidelines, (April 2025). Available at: 2025-04-25 Principles.

• Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, John Fleck, Kathryn Sorensen, and Katherine Tara, Analysis of Colorado River Basin Storage Suggests Need for Immediate Action, (September 2025).

• Kathryn Sorensen, Sarah Porter, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, and Katherine Tara, Consideration for Assigned Water after Expiration of the 2007 Guidelines

(January 2026). Available at: https://issuu.com/asuwattscollege/docs/full_considerations_for_assigned_water_.

The May 1, 2026 #Colorado Water Supply Outlook Report is hot off the presses from the NRCS

Click the link to access the report on the NRCS website. (Click through to check out the exceedance forecasts in your favorite watershed.)

#Colorado Water Supply Forecasts Remain Well Below Median Following Early Melt: A record warm and dry winter in Colorado has resulted in one of the most anomalous water years in the SNOTEL observing period — Colorado Snow Survey #runoff #snowpack

Dry snow course Colorado May 2026. Photo credit: NRCS

Click the link to read the release on the NRCS website:

May 8, 2026

Colorado’s 2026 water year this far has been defined by records across nearly every metric: an anomalously early snowpack peak, rapid melt driven by record March temperatures, snowpack that tracked at-or-near the lowest values in the SNOTEL period of record from January through May 1, and near-record early season precipitation in the San Juan Mountains. Runoff has arrived weeks ahead of the historical median across river systems and recession is largely underway.

May through July runoff forecasts remain low across Colorado at 24 percent of median at the 50 percent exceedance forecast. Western slope forecasts range from 22 to 24 percent of median and eastern basins remain slightly higher at 37 percent in the South Platte basin and 33 percent in the Arkansas basin (Figure 1). The Upper Rio Grande basin is forecast 30 percent of median at the 50 percent exceedance. Forty-eight of 86 forecast points rank as either the lowest or second lowest in their period of record. All 86 forecast points rank at or below the 13th percentile with a median percentile rank of 2. Several Colorado Headwaters forecast points rank lowest on record, including Colorado River near Cameo forecast a departure of 1.49 million acre-feet (MAF), rank 1 of 73 years.

Figure 1. Primary period streamflow forecast volume at the 50 percent exceedance probability, percent NRCS 1991-2020 median, May 1, 2026.

Statewide snowpack is 20 percent of median as of May 1, effectively unchanged from April 1 despite near-normal April precipitation. Snowpack peaked in early March in southern basins and mid-March in northern basins, three to five weeks ahead of historical median peak timing at half of median peak snow water equivalent (SWE). Early May storms have boosted statewide snowpack to 25 percent of median as of May 7, with sites in the Front Range east of the Continental Divide being particularly favored and receiving near 2 inches of SWE.

Many observed streamflow hydrographs are already entering recession unusually early. On the Yampa River near Maybell, seasonal peak flow occurred at the end of March and ranks as the earliest peak date and lowest peak in the 110-year period of record. Similar early and shortened hydrographs have developed in the Upper Colorado Region and in southern basins as accelerated spring melt caused much of the seasonal runoff to occur earlier than normal.

Statewide reservoir storage is 85 percent of median, while forecast inflows into Colorado’s largest reservoirs are well below median. Forecast inflows for the May-July 50 percent exceedance outlook range from 17 percent of median at McPhee Reservoir and 18 percent Blue Mesa to 36 percent at Lake Granby and Pueblo Reservoir.

April storms briefly stabilized snowpack conditions but did not offset the impacts of the record warm and dry winter and the late March heat wave that accelerated snowmelt and shifted runoff weeks ahead of normal. Future weather remains a source of uncertainty and the current 8-14 day outlooks favor above-normal precipitation alongside above-normal temperatures statewide.

Colorado’s Snowpack and Reservoir Storage as of May 1, 2026

* combined San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan River basin

For more details see the May 1, 2026 Water Supply Outlook Report.

Responding to Historic #Drought with Options for Water Users — Colorado Water Trust

From email from the Colorado Water Trust (Barrett Donavan):

April 29, 2026

To: Any Direct Flow or Stored Water User

From: Colorado Water Trust

Dear Water Users,

Colorado Water Trust works statewide to restore water to Colorado’s rivers. We wanted to take a moment to recognize the historic drought we are facing this year. We operate streamflow restoration projects in many different basins, some of which use water rights permanently decreed to protect water in the river, and many of which are temporary water sharing agreements with agricultural, municipal, and industrial water users.

We understand that many of our temporary water sharing agreements may not operate to restore streamflow this year—the agricultural partners with whom we have agreements may not have enough water for their own use. Those considerations are built into our agreements and we always respect our partners’ operational needs. It has also come to our attention that there may be people interested in using their water rights to prop up streamflow this year. Others may have insufficient supply and want to safeguard water that would otherwise be unproductively diverted. We prepared the following information for people in these situations:

Water Sharing

Colorado Water Trust can help you determine whether your water rights will help to save fish and streamflow this year if you want to leave your water in the river.

Administrative Approval

If your water rights could benefit streamflow, we can secure administrative approvals from the appropriate state agency or water conservation district.

Protection Against Abandonment

The statutes Colorado Water Trust works with for administrative approval provide clear protection against abandonment or any diminishment to the HCU of your water right.

Compensation

Colorado Water Trust provides compensation to partners in our ongoing water sharing agreements. We will do our best to secure compensation for any neew agreements, but whether we can provide compensation this year will depend on demand. Please feel free to reach out to us at RFW@ColoradoWaterTrust.org for more information, call (720)570-2897 x2, or visit our website, ColoradoWaterTrust.org. This is a hard year for all of us in the water community, and we would like to help water users and rivers wherever we can.

#LakePowell runoff to hit record low, putting #Arizona’s water supplies at risk — Tucson.com #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the Tucson.com website (Tony Davis). Here’s an excerpt:

May 8, 2026

Very dry and warm weather in the winter and early spring means Colorado River flows into Lake Powell will hit record lows this summer, a new federal forecast says. The past winter brought record-low snowpack in the mountains of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming that feed the Colorado. March brought record heat that caused the snows that had fallen to melt prematurely. The result is that runoff from the melting snow into the river will bring April through July flows into Powell to only 13% of average, says the federal Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That would make the spring-summer runoff into Powell the lowest of its kind since Lake Powell was created in 1963 by the construction of Glen Canyon Dam. The total amount of water expected to reach Powell is 800,000 acre-feet from April through July.

How do scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey “date” water?

A hand gently touches the surface of clear water, revealing smooth pebbles beneath and mossy stones around the edges. — ^{Photograph of a crystal clear stream obtained from Storyblocks}

by Robert Marcos

I was dumbfounded to hear a scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey say, “I wish we could date this water so we’d have a better idea where it came from”. We were standing alongside a tiny creek that led into Colorado’s White River, and the scientist was essentially wondering if the water in the stream came from rainfall, or had risen from a shallow aquifer. Generally rainfall would be “younger” and water from aquifers would be older – sometimes by many thousands of years. But how could anyone possibly determine the age of water?

Answer: by analyzing its chemical composition.

The USGS dates groundwater using chemical and isotopic tracers whose concentrations change in known ways over time in the atmosphere and then get preserved in recharging water. For young groundwater—typically less than about 50–70 years old—USGS commonly uses substances like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆), and tritium and its decay product helium‑3. These are measured in specialized facilities such as the Reston Groundwater Dating Laboratory, which analyzes dissolved gases and transient tracers in samples from wells and springs. The key idea is that atmospheric histories of these tracers (for example, industrial production curves for CFCs or tritium from nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s–60s) provide a time stamp that can be matched to what is found in the water.¹

One example is tritium-based age classification – where a single measurement of tritium is used to classify groundwater as “modern” (recharged in 1953 or later), “premodern” (before 1953), or a mixture of the two. The year 1953 roughly marks the onset of elevated tritium from atmospheric nuclear testing, making it a convenient boundary between older, background conditions and post‑bomb‑pulse recharge. By comparing measured tritium to location‑ and time‑specific thresholds, USGS can quickly determine whether a sample reflects recent recharge that may carry contemporary contaminants or older water that has been isolated from the modern surface for decades or longer.

For slightly older water—hundreds to tens of thousands of years—USGS uses longer‑lived isotopic tracers such as radiocarbon (carbon‑14) dissolved in inorganic carbon. Radiocarbon decays predictably over time, so its remaining fraction in groundwater indicates how long it has been since the water equilibrated with atmospheric carbon at the surface. At even greater ages, other isotopes and noble gases may be used to extend the window into tens of thousands of years or more. No single method is perfect; each tracer has limitations, such as contamination from local sources, mixing of waters of different ages, or chemical reactions that alter concentrations. As a result, USGS often applies multiple tracers together and interprets them with groundwater flow models to better constrain age and understand the distribution of ages in a well or discharge area.

USGS dates groundwater because age is fundamental for managing water resources and assessing vulnerability to pollution. Age indicates how quickly water moves through the subsurface, how long it will take for land‑use changes to affect wells and springs, and whether contaminants like nitrates, pesticides, or per‑ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) reflect current practices or legacy inputs. By linking age to contaminant trends, managers can judge whether improvement efforts will show benefits in years, decades, or even longer. Age information also supports sustainable yield estimates, helps distinguish short‑term variability from long‑term change, and reveals dependencies on very old water that may take thousands of years to replenish.

The ramifications of record-shattering heat on the West’s ecosystems: ‘It was the worst possible way to end the winter that was already worse than normal.’ — Christine Peterson (High Country News)

A general view of hills at Carrizo Plain National Monument in Santa Margarita of San Luis Obispo County, California, United States on March 29, 2026. Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

Click the link to read the article on the High Country News website (Christine Peterson):

April 23, 2026

In March, a month traditionally known for heavy mountain snows and dreary lower-elevation weather, a heat wave settled across the West, shattering temperature records from Tucson, Arizona, to Casper, Wyoming.

The heat wave’s intensity and early arrival shocked many climate scientists. “It is exceptionally difficult for the Earth system to produce temperatures this warm so early in the season,” wrote Daniel Swain, a climatologist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources who runs the Weather West blog.

Yet not only did Western locations set new March highs; many exceeded temperature records for May. And those high temperatures kept hanging on, said Zachary Labe, a climate scientist at the nonprofit science center Climate Central, for nearly two weeks.

While heat waves are a natural phenomenon, this was the earliest and most widespread one ever recorded in the Southwest. And it was caused by climate change, which is making intense heat waves much more likely. Researchers say this means understanding their fallout is even more important.

Source: Climate Central. Map by Nick Underwood/High Country News

Scientists are just now beginning to understand the ramifications of a devastating 2021 heat wave, when a massive heat dome brought 120-degree temperatures to the Pacific Northwest, causing widespread ecological damage. Tens of thousands of trees died. Baby birds that could not yet fly plummeted to the ground as they tried to escape the heat. Salmon and trout suffocated in small streams. Millions — perhaps even billions — of mussels and barnacles cooked.

This year’s heat wave may not have had the same immediate ecological impacts, but it comes on the heels of an already record-breaking hot, dry winter. Researchers say 2021 holds lessons about what lies ahead for both vulnerable and resilient species. Ecosystems, they warn, are likely to permanently change as some species simply can’t handle the heat.

FULLY UNDERSTANDING the impact that events like heat waves have on long-lived tree species takes time. Research is now trickling out from places like Washington, Oregon and British Columbia, and it’s not good.

The 2021 heat wave either killed or otherwise harmed more than three-quarters of species surveyed, including by limiting their reproductive success, according to Julia Baum, a professor at University of Victoria who co-wrote a recent paper on the long-term impacts. The hardest hit, perhaps unsurprisingly, were those unable to move to seek shade or cooler temperatures. Marine species like acorn barnacles and green rope seaweed fared the worst, as did kelp, surfgrass and rockweed.

“The rocky shorelines they live on heated up to (122 Fahrenheit). Think of being glued to hot concrete on the most scorching summer day: They essentially baked and died,” said Baum. “On land, wildflowers wilted and died, preventing entire populations from reproducing that year, and there was widespread leaf scorch and death in forests.”

Some species that could move modified their behavior: Ferruginous hawks reduced their flight time by about 81%, while wolves moved around more, perhaps seeking hunkered-down prey like mule deer and moose.

Meanwhile, species already adapted to hotter or more variable temperature ranges adjusted better than others.

The heat wave’s timing also mattered, said Adam Sibley, a remote sensing scientist and co-author of a 2025 paper that examined the impact on trees and forests. Plants tend to acclimate to heat throughout a season, so the triple-digit temperatures that struck in June hit harder than they would have in August.

Example of heat damage to the new growth on Douglas-fir. Credit: Dave Shaw/Oregon State University

So many tree needles died, in fact, that when Sibley drove to the Oregon coast with friends a few days after the heat wave ended, the tree canopy looked as though it had been dusted with orange snow.

New buds and needles are fragile for a number of reasons, said Christopher Still, a forest ecology professor at Oregon State University. Many contain fatty membranes that, when super-heated, will melt and cause the leaf to fall apart. Young leaves and needles also lack “heat hardening” mechanisms like specialized proteins that stabilize mature leaves and needles when it’s hot.

Many larger, more well-established trees, such as Douglas fir, lost a growing season: Their needles fell off, but grew back the following year. Other trees died, especially younger ones and species like Sitka spruce and western red cedar that require cooler, wetter temperatures.

The 2021 heat wave also rapidly dried grasses, flowers and other fine fuels, leading to record-breaking wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, according to a 2024 paper in the journal Nature.

WHILE THE TIMING of this year’s heat wave surprised many climatologists, the fact that it arrived in March may have ultimately saved some Southwestern plants, said Osvaldo Sala, a professor and director of Arizona State University’s Global Drylands Center.

During the hottest period, he explained, many plants were still dormant. Desert plants tie their growing cycles to rain and moisture instead of heat or sun duration. That means that, unlike in places like Wyoming, where cherry trees started blooming in March instead of May, desert plants were still waiting for rains to come.

Unfortunately, that early blooming has left the cherry trees and other flowering plants particularly susceptible to spring frosts, Still said.

The effects of this year’s heat dome have only exacerbated the winter’s record-setting heat and drought, Still added. Snowpack across much of the West was abysmal; in many places, it was the worst in recorded history.

“The heat dome put an exclamation point on the worst winter in a century,” said Still. “It was the worst possible way to end the winter that was already worse than normal.”

#Arizona hires high-powered law firm, setting the stage for a legal battle over #ColoradoRiver water — Caitlin Sievers (AZMirror.com) #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the Arizona Mirror website (Caitlin Sievers):

March 23, 2026

Arizona is preparing for a legal battle over its rights to Colorado River water.

Following an extraordinarily dry winter along the river basin and what’s expected to be an exceptionally hot and dry spring across the West, where high temperatures in March have already blown past records, the pressure to maintain access to the state’s fair share of river water is growing.

The Colorado River is a vital source of drinking water for 40 million people in the seven basin states, Mexico and 30 Native American tribes, and provides water for farming operations and hydroelectricity.

Reaching a water usage agreement is imperative to the basin states as the river’s water supply continues to decline, as it has done for the past 25 years due to a persistent drought spurred on by climate change.

On Monday, the Arizona Governor’s Office announced that it had retained the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell to represent the state in possible litigation among the Colorado River Basin states and the federal government.

Sullivan & Cromwell is an international firm based in New York City that has represented big names like Microsoft, BP, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. The state is using some of the $3 million it put into its Colorado River legal defense fund last year to retain the law firm.

The Governor’s Office doesn’t expect to take any legal action until June at the earliest, but wants to be prepared for the possibility, especially if the dispute ends up before the U.S. Supreme Court.

The Lower Basin states — Arizona, Nevada and California — and the Upper Basin states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming — have been negotiating an updated water usage agreement for more than two years.

But so far the states have blown past two deadlines to do so — one in November and one in February — and are quickly approaching October, when the existing usage agreement expires.

If the states can’t reach an agreement before that, the federal government will implement one of its draft plans, all of which would place an outsized burden on the Grand Canyon State.

That’s because the Central Arizona Project, a series of canals that supplies Colorado River water to the Valley and the Tucson area, is one of the newest users of the river water, making it legally one of the first to be cut.

But so far, the Upper Basin states have refused to agree to any federally mandated water usage cuts of their own. While the Lower Basin states insist that every state take their fair share, Upper Basin states have argued that they’ve never used their full allotment and already face regular cuts and shortages based on physical availability of water.

Arizona has offered to reduce its Colorado River allocation by 27%, California by 10%, and Nevada by nearly 17%.

Negotiators for Arizona also insist that the Upper Basin states be held to the original 1922 Colorado River Compact that requires them to release a 10-year rolling average of at least 75 million acre-feet of water to the Lower Basin, in addition to one-half of the annual allotment owed to Mexico, for a total of about 80.2 million acre-feet.

An acre-foot of water represents enough to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot, or about 325,851 gallons. That’s enough to provide three homes in Arizona a year of water, on average.

So far, the Upper Basin states have held to the original release agreement. But as water levels in the two major reservoirs on the river, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, continue to decline, it’s expected that the Upper Basin states will be unable to meet that requirement as early as 2027.

When the states entered into the original Colorado River Compact in 1922, they allocated 7.5 million acre-feet of water each year to be shared by the Upper Basin states and another 7.5 million to be used among the Lower Basin states.

Since then, the states have updated their water usage guidelines several times, even though the apportionments remain the same. But Lower Basin states face cuts mandated by the federal government during times of drought and Upper Basin states do not. In 2025, for the fifth year in a row, the federal government imposed drought-based cuts, and Arizona’s amounted to a loss of 512,000 acre-feet of water for the year.

Under current allocations, Arizona has rights to 2.8 million acre feet of water per year, and has implemented 800,000 acre feet in reductions per year. In contrast, Colorado has rights to 3.8 million acre feet a year, although it uses an average of 1.9 million acre feet, annually.

However, Colorado doesn’t always get that full allotment, because it relies mostly on melted snowpack for its water, which varies from year to year. This year’s snowpack levels are historically low, forcing water providers in the Upper Basin to place restrictions on usage based on availability and state law.

Upper Basin states argue that they regularly deal with annual shortages based on physical availability and the state laws that govern how the Upper Basin water is shared, with average annual shortages of about 1.3 million acre feet.

The Lower Basin states have undertaken significant conservation efforts for Colorado River water since 2014 and have reduced their consumption from 7.4 million acre-feet in 2015 to just over 6 million in 2024.

The Upper Basin states have increased their usage in the past five years, from 3.9 million acre-feet in 2021 to 4.4 million in 2024. The federal government’s draft plans allow for the Upper Basin states to use even more water.

Gov. Katie Hobbs’s proposed budget for this year would put another $1 million toward the Colorado River Legal Defense fund, and lawmakers earlier this month gave preliminary approval to doing just that.

Even as Arizona prepares for a legal battle, the state plans to continue attempting to reach an agreement with the other river basin states, according to the Governor’s Office.

“Governor Hobbs is committed to working with the federal government and other Colorado River states to deliver a negotiated settlement that protects Arizona’s fair share of water and stabilizes the system,” spokesman for Hobbs Christian Slater said. “However, it’s critical that Arizona be prepared to defend ourselves in court if an agreement cannot be reached or the Law of the River is violated.”

Could a massive pipeline from the East solve #Arizona’s water woes? — AZCentral.com

This proposed pipeline divert water from the Atchafalaya River in Louisiana through Louisiana, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and up to the Glen Canyon Dam. Credit: Don Siefkes

Click the link to read the article on the AZCentral website (Joan Meiners). Here’s an excerpt:

May 3, 2026

Key Points

The idea of building a pipeline to move water from eastern states to the dry West is frequently proposed to solve water shortages.

Experts argue a cross-country pipeline is technically feasible but prohibitively expensive, legally complex and environmentally risky.

Many officials and environmentalists believe more practical solutions involve local conservation, water storage and regional management.

…Kyle Roerink, executive director of the Great Basin Water Network, an organization that works to promote water conservation in the West and has opposed several water pipeline projects, says that “exporting water from the Mississippi Delta will never be a sensible or reasonable solution.” His list of explanations include the “astronomical cost” stemming from eminent domain, permitting, construction, energy management and staffing fees, and the intractability of managing healthful water quality over such vast distances with so many pollution inputs…The southeastern states may also not be as eager to get rid of their water as Arizonans might assume. Coastal erosion due to climate-worsened hurricanes, drilling and other factors mean the Mississippi Delta needs all the sediment transported downstream by its major rivers. The Mississippi’s flows play a role, too, in diluting agricultural chemicals causing hypoxic dead zones in the Gulf as the region navigates its own experiences with unpredictable drought. On top of these broad limitations — which entities across the aisle including the Goldwater Institute, a conservative policy think tank, have deemed “cost prohibitive” as well as practically and environmentally infeasible — there are complex legal water rights obstacles that likely run deeper than the Trump administration’s ability to override.

“The issue of water rights management would be a Byzantine nightmare for such a large scale project,” Roerink told The Republic. “The Mississippi isn’t adjudicated under one set of laws. It is governed under many doctrines in many states. Just as in the West, eastern states have differing state laws governing water allocations in their respective jurisdictions. There are mixes of riparian and appropriation doctrines governing use. The legal framework leads me to believe that the only thing this pipeline would be good for are lawyers who practice in the U.S. Supreme Court.”

[…]

None of this has stopped Arizona leaders, as reader Lisa Nelson asked about, from formally considering cross-country water pipeline proposals. In 2021, the Arizona Legislature voted to appropriate $160 million into a fund to consider importing water from as far as the Mississippi River. In late 2024, Chuck Podolak, director of the Water Infrastructure Finance Authority of Arizona told KUNC’s Alex Hager that the idea still deserves “serious attention.”

Western Slope water providers concerned as river depth drops below 3 feet in some areas — KJCT #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the KJCT website (Robbie Patla). Here’s an excerpt:

May 5, 2026

GRAND JUNCTION, Colo. (KJCT) — The Colorado River is flowing at record-low depths, raising concerns for water providers and consumers across the Western Slope. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Colorado River below the Grand Valley Diversion near Palisade reached a maximum depth of 9.91 feet in June 2024. As of 12:00 a.m. May 4, the peak depth was recorded at 2.92 feet, flowing at 240 cubic feet per second. Mesa County is in an exceptional drought, according to the Drought Response Information Project (DRIP). Exceptional drought is the most severe category, where shortages of water could create water emergencies. Ty Jones, district manager of Clifton Water District, said the river is flowing at less than a fourth of what it was in 2025. He said the region is in uncharted territory…

“We’re seeing things never seen before, in all the records that we’ve kept in the last 100 plus years,” Jones said. “I mean, we’ve not seen that here in the valley.”

He believes they’ve already seen high flows in the river back in March, when it usually happens in June. The city of Clifton primarily gets its water from the Colorado River, either pumped directly from the stream or fed through Grand Valley Irrigation. If the irrigation system runs out of water, Jones said residents may turn to treated drinking water for their lawns, which could put constraints on treatment plants.

“Our treatment plants can’t handle that demand if everybody starts wanting to water their lawns with our water,” he said.

In the #ColoradoRiver Basin, water year 2026 will go down in history…while also deepening the present crisis — Jeff Lukas (via LinkedIn.com) #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the post in Jeff’s LinkedIn feed:

May 6, 2026

In the Colorado River Basin, water year 2026 will go down in history…while also deepening the present crisis and casting a harsh light on the challenges of the future.

After yet another much drier- and warmer-than-normal month, NOAA CBRFC’s latest (May 1st) official 50% exceedance forecast for Lake Powell April-July inflows slid down to 800 KAF–an are-you-kidding-me 13% of average.

On my spaghetti plot for the past 36 years of Powell forecasted and observed inflows, the 2026 ‘most-probable’ forecast is now below the record-low volume in 2002 (963 KAF). It’s also below the April 1st 2026 70% exceedance forecast (950 KAF) that I said last month we should entertain as a more likely outcome, given the propensity and outlook for dry weather this spring.

If there’s any shine to put on this absolute turd of a water year, it’s that thanks to the extreme rain event in mid-October focused on the San Juan basin, and the early snowmelt, Lake Powell got 2200 KAF of inflow between October 1st and April 1st. That’s below normal, but not nearly as far below as the April-July flow will be.

And in the month of April, Powell got 366 KAF of inflow, which sets the absolute floor for the total April-July inflow volume–that is, the May 1st 50% forecast of 800 KAF includes that April inflow of 366 KAF. (As of May 5th, the observed inflow since April 1st is up to 403 KAF.)

So 2026 will end up as a very “front-loaded” water year, with most of the flow occurring outside of the April-July peak-runoff period, which typically accounts for ~80% of the water-year total. But even with that boost from the October storms, 2026 will end up rivaling, if not exceeding, 1977 and 2002 as the driest-ever water year.

Here’s the NOAA CBRFC Powell inflows forecast page and 2026 forecast evolution plot: https://lnkd.in/gCquGDEW

Feds will front big bucks to conserve #ColoradoRiver water, says #Arizona water chief Tom Buschatzke — Tucson.com #COriver #aridification

From left, J.B. Hamby, chair of the Colorado River Board of California, Tom Buschatzke, Arizona Department of Water Resources; Becky Mitchell, Colorado representative to the Upper Colorado River Commission. Hamby and Buschatzke acknowledged during this panel at the Colorado River Water Users Association annual conference that the lower basin must own the structural deficit, something the upper basin has been pushing for for years. CREDIT: TOM YULSMAN/WATER DESK, UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO, BOULDER

Click the link to read the article on the Tucson.com website (Tony Davis). Here’s an excerpt:

May 5, 2026

The federal government has agreed to pump more than $450 million into programs to carry out additional Colorado River water conservation, Arizona Department of Water Resources chief Tom Buschatzke said Monday. The spending is necessary to make the new proposal from Arizona, Nevada and California work, Buschatzke and other water officials said Friday in releasing their offer to save 700,000 to 1 million acre-feet of river water through 2028. A million acre-feet is the equivalent of approximately 10 years’ worth of Colorado River deliveries to Tucson Water. The U.S. Interior Department proposed that the money be spent, and the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, which must sign off on all federal expenditures, approved it, Buschatze said at a news briefing Monday afternoon on the new plan from the three Lower Colorado River Basin states…J.B. Hamby, California’s Colorado River commissioner, said later Monday that what Buschatzke said is also his understanding of the federal government’s position. The federal funding offer would require the Lower Basin states to engage in a cost-sharing effort to contribute money to the water-saving scheme, Buschatzke said.

Six intriguing things about water in the Amargosa Valley

A serene landscape featuring a clear pool of water surrounded by dry vegetation and distant mountains under a partly cloudy sky. — ^{Crystal Springs in the Ash Meadow National Wildlife Refuge. Photo by Pahrump Photography}

by Robert Marcos

The water in Amargosa Valley is a scientific oddity in that it serves as a living time capsule, and it supports life in one of our planet’s harshest environments. The Amargosa River flows underground for roughly 185 miles – surfacing only occasionally to create lush oases in the Mojave Desert.

Here are some remarkable aspects of this unique water system:

Ancient “Fossil Water”: Much of the groundwater in the Amargosa Basin is fossil water that was recharged during the last Ice Age, between 10,000 and 100,000 years ago. The water travels through a massive regional aquifer of limestone and dolomite rock from sources as far away as the Spring Mountains.¹

A “Bottomless” Cavern: The system feeds Devils Hole, a water-filled limestone cavern in the Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge. Divers have never found its bottom, but it has been explored to depths of over 500 feet.

Geological Sensitivity: The water level in Devils Hole is so precisely tuned to the Earth’s crust that it acts like a giant seismograph. Massive earthquakes thousands of miles away in Japan or Mexico have caused “tsunamis” several feet high inside this tiny desert pool.²

Two small blue fish swimming on a rocky substrate underwater. — ^{Two male Devils Hole Pupfish. Photographed by Olin Feuerbacher / USFWS}

Extremophile Habitats: The valley’s springs support the Devils Hole pupfish, which has the smallest habitat of any vertebrate species on Earth. These fish survive in water that is 93°F and nearly devoid of oxygen, conditions that would be lethal to most other fish. The pupfish are closely monitored by an interagency group – consisting of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, and the Nevada Department of Wildlife. Scientists from these agencies frequently count the number of fish, collect their eggs, and are are undertaking captive rearing and “population augmentation” (which means they release captive-bred fish into the water in order to support the existing population, which is struggling).

Global Biodiversity Hotspot: Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge is home to 26 endemic species of plants and animals that exist nowhere else on Earth. This high concentration of unique life, isolated in “islands of water” within the Mojave Desert, has earned the area the nickname “The Galapagos of the Desert”. The endangered fish include the Devils Hole pupfish, Warm Springs pupfish, Ash Meadows Amargosa pupfish, and the Ash Meadows speckled dace. Several unique species of endemic plants include the Amargosa niterwortthe Ash Meadows milkvetch, the Ash Meadows blazingstar and Spring-loving centaury.³

Deep-Fault Thermal Springs: The heat in local thermal springs, such as those near Tecopa, is likely caused by deep water circulation along faults rather than a shallow volcanic heat source. The geothermally-heated water in the Amargosa Valley – including the water at Devils Hole, is heavily influenced by the region’s limestone and dolomite bedrock. As rainwater from the nearby Spring Mountains moves through deep underground fractures, it is heated by the Earth’s core and dissolves various minerals along the way.⁴

#Drought news May 7, 2026: Light to moderate precipitation overspread much of the High Plains, with the heaviest accumulations (0.5 – 1.5 inch) falling across central #Colorado, this precipitation resulted in some drought reduction across central Colorado

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Montor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Widespread soaking rains fell across Texas and the Deep South, bringing a much needed moisture boost to these drought stricken areas. While sufficient to ease drought conditions across portions of Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, drought conditions remained mostly unchanged across southeastern Alabama, Georgia and northwestern Florida, where soil moisture and streamflows remain extremely low. Lighter rainfall also overspread the Northeast, which, combined with cooler temperatures helped slow the advancement of drought, and improved drought conditions in Maine. Where lighter accumulations occurred, there was slight expansion of drought and abnormal dryness across portions of the mid-Atlantic, Hudson Valley, and southeastern New England. Cooler temperatures and mostly dry weather overspread the Plains and Midwest. While drought conditions continued to expand across the Plains, the drier weather was mostly welcome across the upper Midwest and Corn Belt, allowing fieldwork to progress. Hot, dry weather promoted degradation across Arizona and northwestern Washington, while late season moisture across northern California did little to change the meager snowpack conditions…

High Plains

Light to moderate precipitation overspread much of the High Plains, with the heaviest accumulations (0.5 – 1.5 inch) falling across central Colorado, including late season snow across the higher elevations. This precipitation resulted in some drought reduction across central Colorado. Across the rest of the Plains, however, the moisture was not sufficient to engender substantive improvements. Despite cooler temperatures lowering evapotranspiration rates, some degradation occurred across Kansas and Nebraska, and far western North Dakota…

Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending May 5, 2026.

West

Outside of northern California, where late season moisture provided a boost to short-term streamflows and soil moisture but did little to change the unusually low snow cover across the northern Sierras, seasonably dry weather overspread most of the West. Recent moisture eased drought conditions across far western Montana. While little change to the drought depiction occurred across the West, hot, dry conditions exacerbated impacts across Arizona, resulting in some substantial degradation. Short term dryness also increased across northwestern Washington, resulting in expansion of D0.

South

Following last week’s beneficial rainfall, additional rain overspread much of Texas and Louisiana over the last several days, sparking additional drought reductions. Rainfall across central and western Texas eased drought across the upper Rio Grande Valley as well. Despite the beneficial rainfall, widespread severe to exceptional drought continues across the South Region, and it will take a sustained series of heavy precipitation events to begin any widespread easing of impacts. The beneficial rainfall missed the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, where poor conditions continue to affect rangeland and winter wheat. Drought conditions also expanded across Arkansas…

Looking Ahead

During the next 7 days, an active pattern is favored to continue across the Southeast, with heavy rainfall (2 – 7 inches) possible along a swath from eastern Texas through southern Alabama. These rains would continue to bring drought relief and also a threat of severe weather. Lesser accumulations are favored across Georgia and Florida, which may limit the extent of any improvements. Widespread precipitation is also favored along the Ohio Valley and across the eastern seaboard, with the greatest potential for relief across the Northeast. Somewhat drier conditions across the mid-Atlantic may limit the potential for drought improvement. Light accumulations forecast across the Plains may do little to ease drought conditions, while another week of seasonable dryness is forecast across the West. Above-average temperatures across the West favor an acceleration of snowmelt, which may bring short term reservoir boosts but leaves the water supply even more short as summer approaches. Below-average temperatures are favored for the eastern half of the CONUS.

During the 8-14 day period, above-average temperatures are favored for much of the lower-48, with near normal temperatures forecast for the Northeast. Above-average precipitation is forecast for the southern tier, with the highest probabilities across Texas, eastern New Mexico, and Louisiana. A slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation extends across the Great Lakes Region into the Northeast, while below-average precipitation is favored for the northern Rockies.

US Drought Monitor one week change map ending May 5, 2026.

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center May 1, 2026 Water Supply Discussion #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the discussion on the CBRFC website:

The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB).

Water Supply Forecasts

April-July volume forecasts are well below normal and rank in the driest five on record at many locations. Record low snowpack and poor soil moisture conditions are the primary hydrologic conditions impacting the water supply outlook, while future weather is a primary source of forecast uncertainty. May 1 water supply forecasts are summarized in the figure and table below.

Water Year Weather

The 2025–26 meteorological winter (December–Februrary) was the warmest winter on record for vast swaths of the CBRFC area. It was the driest March on record at numerous SNOTEL sites across the CBRFC area, and an unprecedented heatwave during the last half of March led to significant snowmelt. April weather was cooler and wetter compared to March, with most areas receiving near normal April precipitation. The figures and table below summarize water year 2026 precipitation.

Snowpack Conditions

Snow water equivalent (SWE) has been tracking at or below record low for the past several months. The significant heatwave during the last half of March led to historically low April 1 snow water equivalent conditions across the region. An early April NRCS-Utah Snow Survey Special Report stated that “at no time since systematic snowpack measurements began around 1930 has April 1 snowpack been this low in the state of Utah, and 2026 SWE is roughly five times lower than the previous record low” . A similar analysis performed in early April by the Colorado Climate Center concluded that “this has been the worst year for Colorado snowpack in recorded history, and most locations have less than half of the previous record low”

Precipitation during April led to modest snow accumulation and reduced snowmelt rates due to cooler and cloudier weather. However, May 1 SWE remains at record low values at many SNOTEL stations across UT, WY, and CO. May 1 SWE across the UCRB and GB is generally less than 30% of normal and below the 10th percentile. SWE conditions are more favorable, but still well below normal across northern areas including the headwaters of the Upper Green and the Bear River Basin. SWE conditions are summarized in the figure and table below.

Left: May 1, 2026 SWE – NRCS SNOTEL observed (squares) and CBRFC hydrologic model. Right: CBRFC hydrologic model SWE conditions summary.

Soil Moisture

CBRFC hydrologic model soil moisture conditions impact water supply forecasts. Basins with above average soil moisture conditions can be expected to experience more efficient runoff from rainfall or snowmelt while basins with below average soil moisture conditions can be expected to have lower runoff efficiency until soil moisture deficits are fulfilled. The timing and magnitude of spring runoff is impacted by snowpack conditions, spring weather, and soil moisture conditions.

Mid-November 2025 soil moisture conditions were below normal across most areas as a result of warmer and drier than normal weather during the 2025 water year. Higher elevation soil moisture/baseflow conditions typically don’t change much during winter months as snow is accumulating. However, this has not been the case this season. Early April CBRFC model soil moisture conditions were generally above average due to snow melt that occurred during the late March heatwave. Early May soil moisture conditions are generally below average across lower elevations, with near average soil moisture conditions across higher elevations. CBRFC hydrologic model soil moisture conditions are shown in the figures below.

CBRFC hydrologic model soil moisture conditions as a percent of the 1991–2020 average – Mid-November 2025 (left) and early May 2026 (right).

Upcoming Weather

Weather during the first week of May has been unsettled across the CBRFC area, including a significant winter storm across the mountains of Wyoming and Colorado. Warmer and drier conditions will develop in the coming days. The 7-day precipitation forecast and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8–14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks are shown in the figures below.

7-day precipitation forecast for May 6–12, 2026.

Climate Prediction Center precipitation and temperature probability forecasts for May 14–20, 2026.

Lisbon Valley Mine reopens with AI, robots — Jonathan P. Thompson

A (presumably) autonomous mine haul truck at Mariana Mineral’s newly acquired Lisbon Valley copper mine in southeastern Utah. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

May 5, 2026

⛏️ Mining Monitor ⛏️

Every six months or so I like to do a recon of the Lisbon Valley in southeastern Utah, a long-time sacrifice zone for uranium and copper mining, oil and gas drilling, natural gas processing, and now lithium extraction — not to mention cattle grazing — to see about the latest developments. My takeaway from my latest visit: The sacrifice continues — both in a real sense and a speculative one.

The speculation is in the form of a rush to stake mining claims on nearly every inch of available public land in the valley. This phenomenon isn’t readily apparent on the ground, but showed up indirectly in the form of orange No Trespassing signs posted on public roads in one specific area. Except they aren’t really prohibiting trespassing — that would be illegal. They are just pointing out that the Lisbon Valley Mining Company has already claimed all of the public land around there, so new would-be claimants should just stay away.

Meanwhile, after shutting down in 2024 due to high costs and staffing challenges, the Lisbon Valley copper mine, which posted the signs, is back in business. Late last year Mariana Minerals, backed by the Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, purchased the then-idled mine. Mariana’s CEO is Turner Caldwell, who previously ran Tesla’s battery minerals unit. Perhaps it was his cybertruck that sat in the mine’s parking lot when I drove by recently.

At the mine’s grand reopening ceremony last month, Caldwell said he was hoping to “fundamentally reinvent how infrastructure is built, how mines are operated and how refineries are operated.” This includes using autonomous drills, equipment, and haul trucks, as well as robots to do inspections and conduct more hazardous work.

This purportedly will allow the operation to increase production from about 2,500 tons annually under the previous ownership, to a target of 50,000 tons per year by 2030 — an enormous jump. Historically, the most the mine produced was about 10,000 tons annually. But last year the BLM approved the company’s proposed expansion of its open pit operations and to add an in-situ extraction operation — a prospect that alarmed nearby residents concerned about contamination of aquifers.

Caldwell is vague about the number of jobs the revived operation will create. On the one hand, he’s said he plans on hiring “hundreds” of new workers and invest over $1 billion. On the other, the autonomous equipment’s main asset is that it alleviates past staffing difficulties. As of early May, the Mariana website advertised just 19 open jobs at the Lisbon Valley site. That includes several salaried positions, with pay ranging from $100,000 to about $180,000 per year, as well as drillers, equipment operators, and mechanics at $25 to $45 per-hour wages. Interns could earn $30/hour.

Whether any of that will be enough to afford housing in Moab or even La Sal or Monticello is unclear.

I passed through there on a Sunday, and things were quiet. One haul truck was sitting in the pit, and it appeared as if it was running but it wasn’t doing any hauling. I couldn’t get close enough to confirm that there was no human driver, but the cab did look empty. There were no robots in sight.

Lisbon Valley Blues: Images from a sacrifice zone — Jonathan P. Thompson

Meanwhile, down in Arizona’s copper country, the Center for Biological Diversity, the San Carlos Apache Tribe, and the Lower San Pedro Watershed Alliance filed an intent to sue the Trump administration over its approval of Faraday’s Copper Creek exploratory drilling project east of Mammoth, Arizona, saying it violates the Endangered Species Act.

The exploratory project, a precursor to actual mining, includes 67 drill pads, along with associated roads and infrastructure, on about 78 square kilometers in the Galiuro Mountains in the Lower San Pedro Watershed. Each drill rig requires tens of thousands of gallons of water in an area where communities are facing water shortages and the riparian ecosystem is stressed by prolonged drought. The groups’ lawsuit focuses on the drilling’s impacts on the imperiled Mexican spotted owl and other wildlife.

“The Lower San Pedro watershed is one of Arizona’s most important wildlife corridors, and this exploration project is pushing industrial disturbance into a landscape that is already under pressure,” said Melissa Crytzer Fry, chair for the Lower San Pedro Watershed Alliance. “When agencies ignore clear evidence and fail to follow the law, local communities are left to defend the river, the habitat and the species that make this place irreplaceable.”

🐟 Colorado River Chronicles 💧

If you’re bummed out about the reduced releases from Glen Canyon Dam — and the associated drop in streamflows in the Grand Canyon — you might try going upstream a ways and boating the Green River or the Colorado River below the confluence of the two. On May 1, the Bureau of Reclamation upped releases from Flaming Gorge Dam to full power plant capacity, or 4,600 cubic feet per second. Then, on May 4, they started allowing an additional 4,000 cfs to flow through the dam’s bypass to implement a larval trigger study plan (and to bolster Lake Powell’s levels).

Hydrograph showing releases from Flaming Gorge Dam. On May 1 they jumped to 4,600 cfs and then again increased to about 9,000 cfs on May 4. Source: NOAA/CBRFC

Today (May 5) the Bureau was releasing about 9,000 cfs from the dam. While the first pulse (the May 1 release) has made it downstream, the second one has yet to reach Ouray, Utah, if the USGS streamflow gage is any indication. But as that 9k cfs makes it downstream, it should make for some good boating — or at least better than you’d expect during such a dry year — not only on the Green, but also in Cataract Canyon. Whether it will bail out Lake Powell is another question altogether.

The Green River’s “natural” spring runoff occurred in late March and early April. Now an artificially induced one is in its full throes. Whether it will be larger than last year will be determined in the next couple of weeks. Source: USGS.

🗺️ Messing with Maps 🧭

A couple of weeks ago I wrote about the Trump administration’s mapping tool, aimed at making America graze again, showing “potentially available” (i.e. vacant) grazing allotments on public lands. Now the mapping folks at Center for Biological Diversity have taken that map, and overlain it with areas of endangered species’ critical habitat and BLM allotment health status. It can be a little overwhelming to navigate because of all the different layers and colors. But you can turn layers on and off to make it easier to use, and it’s valuable for just understanding the landscape in general.

Below is a screenshot of the map showing the “available” Canyons of the Ancients allotments I wrote about visiting. Check out the interactive version for yourself.

📸 Parting Shot 🎞️

Grain and bean silo, Dove Creek, Colorado, May 2026. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

How far will Lake Mead fall after all of its “banked” water has been withdrawn?

A skeleton wearing a straw hat and sunglasses relaxes in a beach chair in a desert landscape, next to a cooler labeled 'IGLOO ICY BEERS'. A bottle is in its hand and a towel is laid on the ground. — ^{Image created by Google Gemini, May 6th, 2026, from the prompt: “generate a funny picture of a skeleton wearing a beach hat in the desert”.}

by Robert Marcos, photojournalist

Water that’s banked in Lake Mead is officially called “Intentionally Created Surplus“, or ICS. The ICS allows major water users to store conserved or unused Colorado River water in the reservoir for their future use. It’s probably obvious to most of you but since Lake Mead serves as a reservoir for the lower basin, the ICS is primarily a program that serves water agencies in the lower basin.¹

As of April 12, 2026, Lake Mead’s water volume was 8.41 million acre-feet, or roughly 32% of its total capacity. But while writing this article we were made aware that we should subtract Lake Mead’s deadpool – which is estimated at 2.5 million acre feet of water that cannot be utilized because Hoover Dam’s water intake towers and turbines are physically positioned too high to draw that water.² Therefore the approximately 2.67 to 3.47 million acre feet of that water that’s currently banked represents somewhere between 44% and 58% of the 6 million acre feet of water that’s available in Lake Mead.

Here’s a list of the water agencies and the estimated amount of water that each of them have currently banked in Lake Mead –

Arizona: currently holds approximately 500,000 to 600,000 acre-feet in its dedicated ICS accounts.

California: As of May 2026, California has roughly 1.2 to 1.4 million acre-feet of water banked in Lake Mead through the ICS and other conservation programs. Major participants include the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the Imperial Irrigation District, and the Palo Verde Irrigation District.⁴

Nevada: As of May 2026, Nevada has approximately 954,000 acre-feet of water banked in Lake Mead through the ICS program. This total represents a major portion of Nevada’s overall “water savings account,” which includes several different banking locations and programs.⁵

Gila River Indian Community: As of May 2026, the Gila River Indian Community has banked approximately 320,000 acre-feet in Lake Mead through the ICS program. The Community also contributed larger amounts of water to the reservoir through multiple conservation programs. Since 2019, the Community has contributed roughly 850,000 acre-feet to Lake Mead. This includes ICS, mandatory cuts, and “system conservation” water that remains in the lake permanently to boost elevation rather than being banked for future withdrawal. The Community committed to leaving 125,000 acre-feet per year in the reservoir for 2023, 2024, and 2025. These efforts, funded by the Inflation Reduction Act, have collectively added about two feet to Lake Mead’s elevation. New agreements signed in late 2024 and 2025 involve infrastructure projects like lining irrigation canals that can save an additional 73,000 to 78,000 acre-feet over the next decade.⁶

Mexico: As of May 2026, Mexico has approximately 200,000 acre feet of water banked in Lake Mead through the ICS program and related binational agreements. Mexico was granted the right to store water in Lake Mead following a 2010 earthquake that damaged its irrigation infrastructure. By 2026, these stored volumes have stabilized at around 200,000 acre-feet as Mexico uses the lake as a buffer against shortages.⁷

Five Facts About the United States Drought Monitor — Ciji Taylor (Farmers.gov)

Click the link to read the article on the USDA website (Ciji Taylor):

April 27, 2026

This is likely no surprise to you, but drought persists across the U.S. and is intensifying in some areas. No geographic area is immune to the potential of drought at any given time. The U.S. Drought Monitor provides a weekly drought assessment, and it plays an important role in USDA programs that help farmers and ranchers recover from drought.

The Facts

Fact #1 – Numerous agencies use the Drought Monitor to inform drought-related decisions.

The map identifies areas of drought and labels them by intensity on a weekly basis. It categorizes the entire country as being in one of six levels of drought. The first two, None and Abnormally Dry (D0), are not considered to be drought. The next four describe increasing levels of drought: Moderate (D1), Severe (D2), Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4).

While many entities consult the Drought Monitor for drought information, drought declarations are made by federal, state and local agencies that may or may not use the Drought Monitor to inform their decisions. Some of the ways USDA uses it to determine a producer’s eligibility for certain drought assistance programs, like the Livestock Forage Disaster Program and Emergency Haying or Grazing on Conservation Reserve Program acres and to “fast-track” Secretarial drought disaster designations.

Fact #2 – U.S. Drought Monitor is made with more than precipitation data.

When you think about drought, you probably think about water, or the lack of it. Precipitation plays a major role in the creation of the Drought Monitor, but the map’s author considers numerous indicators, including drought impacts and local insight from over 450 expert observers around the country. Authors use several dozen indicators to assess drought, including precipitation, streamflow, reservoir levels, temperature and evaporative demand, soil moisture and vegetation health. Because the drought monitor depicts both short and long‐term drought conditions, the authors must look at data for multiple timeframes. The final map produced each week represents a summary of the story being told by all the pieces of data. To help tell that story, authors don’t just look at data. They converse over the course of the map-making week with experts across the country and draw information about drought impacts from media reports and private citizens.

Fact #3 – A real person, using real data, updates the map.

Each week’s map author, not a computer, processes and analyzes data to update the drought monitor. The map authors are trained meteorologists from the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (the academic partner and website host of the Drought Monitor), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and USDA. The author’s job is to do what a computer can’t – use their expertise to reconcile the sometimes-conflicting stories told by each stream of data into a single assessment.

Fact #4 – The Drought Monitor provides a current snapshot, not a forecast.

The Drought Monitor is a “snapshot” of conditions observed during the most recent week and builds off the previous week’s map. The map is released on Thursdays and depicts conditions based on data for the week that ended the preceding Tuesday. Rain that falls on the Wednesday just before the USDM’s release won’t be reflected until the next map is published. This provides a consistent, week‐to‐week product and gives the author a window to assess the data and come up with a final map.

Fact #5 – Your input can be part of the drought-monitoring process.

State observers in the drought monitoring network relay on-the-ground information from numerous sources to the US Drought monitor author each week. That can include information that you contribute.

The Drought Monitor serves as a trigger for multiple forms of federal disaster relief for agricultural producers, and sometimes producers contact the author to suggest that drought conditions in their area are worse than what the latest drought monitor shows. When the author gets a call like that, it prompts them to look closely at all available data for that area, to see whether measurements of precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and other indicators corroborate producer-submitted reports. This is the process that authors follow whether they receive one report or one hundred reports, although reports from more points may help state officials and others know where to look for impacts.

There are multiple ways to contribute your observations:

There are multiple ways to contribute your observations:

Email – Emails sent to droughtmonitor@unl.edu direct to the USDM authors.

Submit CMOR reports – Use the Condition Monitoring Observer Report (CMOR) system to provide information and photos about how drought is affecting your area. Your report will appear immediately on an interactive map and will help Drought Monitor authors and others interpret weather data.

Become a CoCoRaHS observer – Submit drought reports along with daily precipitation observations to the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network.

For more information, read our Ask the Expert blog with a NDMC climatologist or visit farmers.gov/protection-recovery.

Ciji Taylor is a USDA public affairs specialist

Nolan Doesken (Founder of CoCoRaHS) — Colorado Water Foundation for Water Education President’s Award Presentation 2011

‘Historic’ agreement between NM land grant and Forest Service to revitalize 200-year-old acequia: Santa Fe National Forest agreement ‘a great leap forward’ after century of tension, New Mexico lawmaker says — Patrick Lohman (SourceNM.com) #RioGrande

The dusty Acequia Madre de Cañon de Chama, pictured above April 28, 2026, will soon divert Rio Chama water toward historic orchards the San Joaquín del Rio de Chama Land Grant first planted more than 200 years ago, thanks to a new agreement between the land grant and the Santa Fe National Forest. (Photo courtesy Leonard Martinez)

Click the link to read the article on the Source NM website (Patrick Lohman):

May 5, 2026

A dusty acequia in northern New Mexico, which more than 200 years ago diverted water from the Rio Chama, will soon spring to life again, nourishing freshly planted orchards of plums, apples and apricots.

That’s the idyllic scene envisioned through a new agreement between the Santa Fe National Forest and heirs of the San Joaquín del Rio de Chama Land Grant. The parties say the “memorandum of understanding” they signed in late March marks the potential thawing of more than a century of tension between New Mexico land grants and the federal government.

The agreement, which the Santa Fe National Forest Service provided to Source NM through a public records request, identifies the acequia restoration as a “project of mutual interest.” It also recognizes the land grant as a consulting partner to the Forest Service and provides it greater input into the land’s future use.

Leonard Martinez, president of the land grant, told Source NM that the nine-page agreement is a “historic document,” one that marks the first such formal agreement between land grants and the Forest Service. He said he’s spent nearly every day since the agreement was signed clearing the historic irrigation canal and working to reconnect it to the Rio Chama.

San Joaquin de Chama President Leonard Martinez said he has spent most every day since signing the memorandum of agreement digging out the old path of the acequia in the Cañon de Chama. (Photo courtesy Leonard Martinez)

If all goes well, he will open the headgates of the Acequia Madre de Cañon de Chama later this summer, sending Chama River water to irrigate a cover crop of alfalfa. Within five years, he hopes to replant historic orchards.

When that happens, he said, he hopes the “heirs who have left us,” many of them still buried in a cemetery near the headgates, will approve of his efforts.

“That’s the key here,” he said. “We want to put our orchards and our fields back in.”

Santa Fe National Forest spokesperson Claudia Brookshire told Source NM that the agreement resulted from trust established through informal talks and individual projects.

“The Forest Service has long been willing to work with land grants,” Brookshire said in an email. “But the lack of a formal framework, combined with trust barriers, made it difficult to begin projects on national forest system lands.”

The Santa Fe National Forest is in early discussions to develop similar agreements with two other land grants, Brookshire said.

In 1806, Spanish Governor Joaquín del Real Alencaster charged 44 families with stewardship of a 470,000-acre swath of what was then the New Mexico Territory. By 1860, according to the land grant, more than 800 residents established roots there, cultivating land within the river valleys, pasturing livestock and gathering resources from the surrounding common lands, known as the “ejido.”

But after multiple lawsuits and land re-surveys over the ensuing decades, the federal government and land speculators acquired the land and evicted the residents. By 1905, the federal government recognized only about 1,500 acres of land along the Rio Chama as belonging to the land grant, but even that parcel ended up in the hands of the Rio Arriba Land and Cattle Company.

The parcel west of Abiquíu, known as the Cañon de Chama, remained the company’s property for decades before the federal government ultimately acquired it, as well. Today, all of the original San Joaquín del Rio de Chama Land Grant belongs to the Santa Fe National Forest or Carson National Forest.

Land grant heirs like Martinez have fought for more than a century to reassert their rights over the land, including seeking Forest Service permission to visit and care for the cemetery where their ancestors are buried.

The heirs ultimately received a Forest Service easement in 2013 to access the cemetery. Since then, Martinez and other land grant leaders have continued to pressure the Forest Service for more access, particularly to the Cañon de Chama, which heirs describe as culturally and historically significant.

Martinez told Source NM that the agreement is a result of trust built through the cemetery easement, he said, as well as guidance from the New Mexico Department of Justice’s Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo Division.

The NMDOJ created the division in 2003 to oversee and address concerns related to the provisions of the 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ushered in the United States’ government’s problematic land title confirmation process and stripped the San Joaquin land grant heirs of hundreds of thousands of acres of communal land.

New Mexico Rep. Miguel Garcia (D-Albuquerque) has spent much of his 30 years in office advocating for land grant heirs, including seeking recurring state funding and greater recognition of the historical injustice of the federal government’s land seizure.

While he said the new agreement represents a “great leap forward” and commended Martinez and others for their efforts, he said his ultimate goal remains for the Forest Service to return land it now controls to the land grants.”

“These land grants that lost these common lands have not ceded their right to that land,” he said. “They have not given up that hope.”

The Rio Chama viewed from US highway 84 between Abiquiú, New Mexico, and Abiquiu Dam. By Dicklyon – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=110189310

Can the #ColoradoRiver Survive 2026?: Reporting on the front lines of low water for Sierra Magazine — Morgan Sjogren (Wildwords.Substack.com) #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the Wildwords.Substack.com website (Morgan Sjogren):

May 1, 2026

How is the Colorado River doing?

To get to the river and listen, there is an intricate web of management issues, antiquated infrastructure, and century-old legal disputes to thrash through. Unless you’ve gone outside in the Southwest lately. A 26-year drought is sucking the river dry, and unprecedented heat is rapidly evaporating this year’s record-low snowpack.

These two conditions are leading to low water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the nation’s two largest reservoirs. That, in turn, jeopardizes critical water infrastructure for a large swath of the West.

Reporting on this issue from the front lines, the growing margins of Lake Powell returning to Glen Canyon, made this reality strikingly clear. The river’s returning are only a portion of this watershed story. There are major questions about how the Colorado River will make it past Glen Canyon Dam in a rapidly drying future. Whether you love or hate Lake Powell, this is not an issue of recreation; it is about water equity for millions of people, desert ecosystems, and wildlife.

Here is the full story for Sierra Magazine: https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/can-colorado-river-survive-2026

A 1,500-word story is painfully insufficient to explain the breadth of this issue that threatens an entire watershed. Writing a book is starting to feel sane! Of course, I do not make this easy for myself, always crawling around in the desert and floating around the watershed. But there is good reason to take the long view. As I write Riverside (Torrey House Press 2027), my life will continue its pulse between the river and writing flash floods. My PFD is on tight. Thanks for hopping aboard.

Here are some photos taken throughout the watershed as I reported on the Colorado River for Sierra.

Low tide on Powell Reservoir. Photo credit: Morgan Sjogren

A river returns. Almost 50 miles of the San Juan, once inundated by Powell Reservoir, are flowing free. Photo credit: Morgan Sjogren

The humpback chub have inhabited the Colorado River watershed for 5 million years. The next 12-months might be their most critical to survival. Photo credit: Morgan Sjogren

The Little Colorado River, a Grand Canyon tributary, is a critical stronghold for the humpback chub. Photo credit: Morgan Sjogren

With such low flows, the Colorado River Basin will likely turn to pumping groundwater. The threat to springs affects the river’s baseflows, which are significantly supported by groundwater and springs.

“There’s not economic adjustments that the birds can make. A payout doesn’t help the birds that use those habitats.”––Jennifer Pitt, Colorado River program director for Audubon. Photo credit: Morgan Sjogren

Last year, Colorado River Indian Tribes (CRIT) granted the Colorado River legal personhood under tribal law. Photo credit: Morgan Sjogren

“The final words of any story are transmitted from a laptop, but the writing process all happens out here, with the watershed.” — Morgan Sjogren

States seek a ‘marriage counselor’ in #ColoradoRiver brawl. Are they too late? — HavasuNews.com #COriver #aridification

The Hoover Dam is a powerhouse! With an impressive output of about 3 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, it provides enough energy to light up about 1 million households in Nevada, Arizona, and California, ensuring the lights stay on un the Southwest. Photo credit: USBR

Click the link to read the article on The Havasu News website (Alan Halaly). Here’s an excerpt:

May 1, 2026

In a Thursday joint statement, the Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming called for “immediate mediation” in the yearslong deadlock with the Lower Colorado River Basin states of Nevada, California and Arizona. They offered no details about who could fill that role or which entity would pay for the costs.

“Time is short, but structured negotiations through mediation offer a new path for authentic discussions,” New Mexico’s Upper Colorado River Commissioner Estevan López said in a statement. “Even at this late stage, we should pursue every opportunity to reach a workable agreement.”

[…]

Asked about how a mediator could differ from the federal government’s intervention or the appointment of a so-called “water master” at the U.S. Supreme Court, Entsminger said states are unlikely to view a mediator’s decision-making as binding.

“It’s certainly not litigation; it’s not even arbitration,” Entsminger said. “It’s more of a marriage counselor.”

[…]

Colorado River Board of California Chairman JB Hamby said in a Tuesday statement that his state proposed a mediation process last year. California officials see the need for both long- and short-term solutions, and mediation could push the Upper Basin toward “verifiable water contributions,” Hamby added.

“Effective mediation requires common ground, and the system cannot wait,” Hamby said. “Current conditions require immediate, measurable water reductions from every state.”

Initial fill of Chimney Hollow Reservoir — Northern Water #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification #SouthPlatteRiver

The initial fill of Chimney Hollow Reservoir has concluded, and the reservoir currently has about 1,500 acre-feet of water—less than 2 percent of the reservoir's full capacity of 90,000 acre-feet. Read more about the initial fill at https://t.co/WaxdbfiFWz. pic.twitter.com/ndlN3Y6zoV
— Chimney Hollow Reservoir (@ChimneyHollow) May 5, 2026

Mexican Farmers are unhappy with mandated cuts to Colorado River water

^{Tomatos being sorted by a farmer in the Mexicali Valley. Photo from Storyblocks}

by Robert Marcos

Last week the lower basin states of Arizona, California, and Nevada, along with tribal leaders, offered to leave somewhere between 700,000 to a million acre-feet of water in the Colorado River system through 2027–2028. The states described it as more than 3.2 million acre-feet of savings by 2028 and a way to stabilize Lake Mead and Lake Powell while longer-term negotiations continue.¹

What caught my eye about this story is that Mexico – which by law had received 1.5 million acre feet of Colorado River water annually, was already conserving some of that water due to a previous agreement that promised to conserve 400,000 acre-feet between 2023–2026.²

Reportedly, farmers south of the border are unhappy with these arrangements. Farmers in Mexicali Valley said they feel frustrated with the mandatory Colorado River water conservation, and they reported that they’ve been “cheated” out of resources they desperately need to survive. While Mexico agreed to specific water reductions as part of a binational plan with the U.S., many farmers in the Valle de Mexicali have reached a breaking point due to unpaid compensation.³

The prevailing sentiment of farmers in Mexicali Valley is characterized by the following:

Financial Betrayal: Many farmers in Northern Baja’s district 14 agreed to leave thousands of acres of land fallowed in order to conserve Colorado River water – in exchange for $4.5 million dollars in direct payments. However, they claim the Mexican government failed to pay them, which has left these farmers without any income whatsoever.⁴

Opposition to New Water Laws: Recent sweeping changes to Mexico’s national water law have stripped long-held water rights away from farmers, consolidating control in the hands of the federal government. Farmers view this as a move to prioritize urban centers like Tijuana and Ensenada over agricultural needs.

Sovereignty Concerns: There is a strong feeling that the Mexican government is surrendering national sovereignty by complying with U.S. water demands while its own agricultural sector suffers from “death” through deprivation.

Escalating Resistance: Farmers have responded with aggressive protests, including blockading major trade routes at the U.S.-Mexico border with semi-trucks and seizing control of critical dams. Some have even threatened to “spill” their water or return to farming—even if unprofitable—just to prevent the government from redirecting it elsewhere.⁵

Water restriction triggers have changed in #Frisco after ordinance amendment approval due to ‘exceptional #drought’ — The Summit Daily

Dillon Reservoir. Photo credit Greg Hobbs.

Click the link to read the article on The Summit Daily website. Here’s an excerpt:

April 30, 2026

Frisco’s town manager can now implement water conservation measures outside of the standard triggers outlined in the town’s water code after an ordinance under consideration officially passed. Frisco Town Council approved Ordinance 26-10 on first reading at its April 14 meeting and adopted it on second reading at its April 28 meeting. The ordinance amends Article V of Chapter 171 in the town code to add the ability for the town to implement levels of its water restrictions if it’s determined that “significantly below-average snowpack” or “significantly above average temperatures” or a combination of these factors, both existing or anticipated, pose a risk to the town’s ability to provide water.

Prior to the amendment, the code used certain streamflow and water well storage levels to trigger levels of the water restrictions…A town meeting recap stated that “as of March 31, the North Ten Mile Creek watershed, which provides Frisco with much of its water,” had only roughly 7.3 inches of snow-water equivalent, which is about half as much liquid water stored in the snow compared to the five-year average.

“The 2025–2026 winter season produced historically low snowfall across the Rocky Mountain region, resulting in well-below-average snowpack levels that are critical to the Town of Frisco’s municipal water supply. Above-average spring temperatures have further exacerbated these conditions by accelerating snowmelt, increasing evapotranspiration, and driving higher wildfire conditions. These combined factors are significantly reducing available water supply at a time when seasonal demand will be increasing the Town’s daily water production by over 100%. Dillon Reservoir remains below historical storage levels, underscoring the vulnerability of the Town’s water resources and providing a real time visual reminder of just how limited the local hydrologic cycle is this year.”

Due to the historically low snowfall, which has led to the most severe drought designation by the U.S. Drought Monitor, town staff recommended moving from the current Phase 1 voluntary measures to Phase 3 mandatory restrictions, which limits “non-essential outdoor irrigation to two days per week in addition to other restrictions,” according to the town recap. Staff explained it’s possible that North Ten Mile Creek may run dry due to the current conditions and forecasts, which would require the town to rely on its wells, “which have been resilient even when the reservoir has been very low.”

Map of the Blue River drainage basin in Colorado, USA. Made using USGS data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=69327693

As Energy, War and Climate Collide, a Conference in Colombia Charts a Path Beyond #FossilFuels — Bob Berwyn (InsideClimateNews.org)

Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Bob Berwyn):

May 1, 2026

While some major fossil fuel producers keep pushing for expanded oil and gas use, which is linked to warfare, economic shocks and ecological damage, more than 50 countries at the first Conference on Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels began developing plans to shift toward renewable energy systems designed for stability and abundance rather than scarcity and conflict.

At the end of the conference, France, where fossil fuels still power about 60 percent of the world’s seventh-largest economy, unveiled a pilot roadmapto phase out coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and gas by 2050, and to electrify sectors such as heating and transport. Colombia’s draft roadmap to largely ditch fossil fuels by 2050 emphasizes that transitioning to renewables could deliver $280 billion for the country in economic benefits.

The countries represented in Santa Marta, Colombia, generate about one-third of global economic activity. They broadly agreed to align their trade and finance policies with their transition plans, potentially creating significant economic momentum toward the faster decarbonization needed to avoid overcooking the planet with greenhouse gases.

The conference can be seen as a climate diplomacy track running parallel with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but on a faster train with friendlier passengers, said Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s minister for climate change adaptation and a leader in efforts to accelerate climate action.

“It’s very heartening to have the Global North and the Global South in the same room, countries willing to talk about transitioning away from fossil fuels,” he said.

Participants and observers described the meeting as a space where fossil fuels themselves, and not just their emissions, were discussed as the root cause of overlapping crises, from conflict and displacement to economic instability. At past UNFCCC climate talks, those connections were often downplayed, especially in official documents.

The conference was convened by the Netherlands and Colombia during the closing days of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, late last year, as frustration grew over a small number of countries blocking any detailed discussions of phasing out fossil fuels. A follow-up meeting is set for early 2027 in Tuvalu, in the Pacific.

Organizers of the Santa Marta meeting also said the work of a special science panel associated with the conference is critical because media ecosystems are overloaded with climate and energy disinformation. Beyond policy details, discussions at the conference also revealed a shift in how energy is understood, shaped by lived experience and generational memory as much as by economics or technology.

Avoiding Past Mistakes

Until a few decades ago, coal miners were celebrated as heroes of prosperity, while kids grew up with “Put a Tiger in Your Tank” ads promising open-road freedom. Fossil fuels were synonymous with progress; many of the people now shaping energy policy came of age in that world, and the story wasn’t necessarily wrong for that time. But in a more crowded, connected world, that same system is now driving instability and climate degradation, and resisting the transition away from fossil fuels seems like longing for horse-and-buggy transport.

For the countries in Santa Marta, it’s not a question of whether to change, it’s how to change without repeating past mistakes. Veteran policy makers shared space with a younger cohort of advocates and negotiators for whom renewable energy systems are a baseline assumption, not an aspirational goal. Many are from developing countries and experience the risks of fossil fuels as immediate rather than as theoretical, and they challenge the fossil fuel industry’s misleading narrative that their products are needed to alleviate poverty.

“War right now is one of the largest contributors to the climate crisis,” said Faotu Jeng, founder of Clean Earth Gambia, a nonprofit group that has sparked environmental progress. Jeng noted that military emissions are not accurately accounted for under the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming.

What will Xcel propose for Pueblo as it makes plans for the retirement of the last of the Comanche coal-burning units in 2030? Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Navajo Dam operations update: Bumping releases to 500 CFS May 5, 2026 #SanJuanRiver

From email from Reclamation (Conor Felletter):

May 4, 2026

The Bureau of Reclamation has adjusted the release schedule from Navajo Dam due to downstream maintenance activities. On Tuesday, May 5th at 4:00 AM, the release will increase from 450 to 500 cubic feet per second (cfs). A further increase to 550 cfs is planned for Thursday, May 7th at 4:00 AM.

Releases are made for the authorized purposes of the Navajo Unit, and to attempt to maintain a target base flow through the endangered fish critical habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to Lake Powell). The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout the critical habitat area from Farmington to Lake Powell.

This scheduled release change is subject to changes in river flows and weather conditions. If you have any questions, please contact Conor Felletter (cfelletter@usbr.gov or 970-637-1985), or visit Reclamation’s Navajo Dam website at https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html

History Files — Lake Powell — 1982 to 2026

Fish out of water: Historic drought leaves little water for endangered species in critical stretch of #ColoradoRiver — Heather Sackett (AspenJournalism.org) #COriver #aridification

The Colorado River flows through Las Colonias Park in Grand Junction, Colo. on April 22, 2026. The river reached an extremely low level due to heavy diversion upstream and record low snowpack. CREDIT: LUKE RUNYON/THE WATER DESK

Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

May 1, 2026

With drought and high temperatures putting unprecedented pressure on water users throughout Colorado, from cities to agriculture, there’s one segment that can be affected first — and maybe worst — when it comes to a lack of water: rivers themselves and the ecosystems that depend on them.

As cities enact water restrictions and farmers and ranchers prepare for the worst, impacts of the water shortage are readily apparent in a chronically dry stretch of the Colorado River between Palisade and the confluence of the Gunnison River that is critical habitat for endangered fish, known as the 15-mile reach.

The Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program works to return water to this stretch of river in the Grand Valley, but because of this year’s historically dry conditions, the program could have only 16,000 acre-feet, half its typical amount of water for fish.

Beyond that guaranteed amount, the program mostly uses water-sharing agreements that can secure additional acre-feet to boost flows — but only when other users don’t need the water and can voluntarily loan it. This year finds nearly everyone who depends on the Colorado River and its tributaries in dire straits.

Ruedi Reservoir, above Basalt, on the Fryingpan River, April 22, 2026. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith

There won’t be any surplus water for fish in the Historic Users Pool, which is stored in Green Mountain Reservoir and is the largest source of water to potentially augment fish flows. A pool of water in Ruedi Reservoir that is available in four out of five years isn’t there, and the program could get only about 340 acre-feet from a pool in Wolford Reservoir upstream of Kremmling that typically has up to 6,000 acre-feet.

“It is really clear to me that we do not have enough tools in our toolbox to be able to manage for conditions like we have this year in the 15-mile reach,” said Julie Stahli, recovery program director. “We are so far outside the bounds of what we have ever seen before, that it’s really just hard to be able to make any good decisions.”

Stahli said she anticipates the program can contribute about 75 cubic feet per second through mid-July, at which point they will drop it down to 50 cfs, a bare-bones amount that is just enough to keep the riverbed wet.

This map shows the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River near Grand Junction, home to four species of endangered fish. Map credit: CWCB

“That is what we are anticipating being able to have for the entirety of the season in the 15-mile reach,” she said.

Side channels on the Colorado River ran dry early during spring runoff on April 22, 2026. Cobble bars and muddy banks emerged as the river receded near Dos Rios Park in Grand Junction, Colo. CREDIT: LUKE RUNYON/THE WATER DESK

As flows plummet, fish could become stranded in pools that are disconnected from the rest of the river, and program managers say they will try to prevent fish from using that stretch of river during times when flows are predicted to be at their lowest. Crews could use netting to keep fish out of the reach or close the flow of water that returns fish to the river after they accidentally enter an irrigation canal, which would keep them in the stretch of river above the diversion that has more water.

“Our main goal at this point is just to keep fish out of that reach,” Stahli said. “There is not a whole lot of attractive habitat in there right now for fish. Flows dropped so early in the season. We’re already seeing some pretty dire conditions in April.”

For several days in April, flows fell to just over 50 cfs, among the lowest levels in recorded history and far below the recovery program’s target flow for April in a dry year of 1,240 cfs. According to Stahli, the river’s flow at that low point could be solely attributed to recovery-program water that it had released from upstream reservoirs.

The goal of the recovery program when it was created in 1988 was to protect the humpback chub, razorback sucker, bonytail and Colorado pikeminnow, while also allowing the seemingly opposing goal of developing more water. An aim of the program was to allow farms and cities to continue using water and even expand their use without violating the Endangered Species Act.

And the program has had some success, with one of the four species — the humpback chub — being downlisted from endangered to threatened in 2021. (The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has also proposed downlisting the razorback sucker.) These fish evolved over millions of years and are only found in the Colorado River basin. In today’s highly engineered and managed river ecosystem, they live mostly in just a few key locations in the Upper Basin, including the 15-mile reach, and in parts of the Yampa and Green rivers. Grand Junction’s minor league baseball team has adopted the charismatic fish as its team name and mascot; last year it was the humpback chubs, and now it’s the razorback suckers.

But the program has had trouble meeting target minimum flows in the 15-mile reach, even though upstream water development has not kept pace the way it was expected to. A main culprit is climate change, which has robbed the river of about 20% of its flows during the 21stcentury.

“We just don’t have the tools as a society to be able to handle what’s happening right now in any cohesive way,” Stahli said. “This isn’t an endangered fish problem; this is an everyone problem.”

Palisade High School students released razorback suckers and bonytails they helped raise into the Colorado River on Friday, May 1. The two species live only in the Colorado River Basin and are endangered. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Why is the river dry?

The reach is just downstream of large Grand Valley agricultural diversions, which are used to grow crops such as corn, alfalfa and the famous Palisade peaches, and which can take a combined 1,950 cfs from the river. At certain times of year, there can be more water in the Grand Valley’s canals than there is in the nearby Colorado River. Collectively, they are the biggest agricultural diversion from the Colorado River on the Western Slope.

“There has been so much diversion and damming of the river farther upstream,” said Bart Miller, healthy rivers director at environmental group Western Resource Advocates. “There are a lot of uses right there, and you’re seeing the impacts of all the Front Range diversions. [The 15-mile reach] is a pinch point in the system based on all the water development we’ve done.”

Water rights for the environment and recreation were latecomers to the legal system. It wasn’t until the 1970s — nearly 100 years after the most-senior agricultural rights on the Western Slope were established — that Colorado began protecting the value of water in streams with its instream flow program. Under Colorado’s system of water law, those who use water by taking it out of the river — including farmers, cities and industry — usually have the oldest rights, giving them first use of the resource. There’s nothing illegal about drying up a river.

“It’s like you’re running in a race and it’s four laps around the track,” Miller said. “The folks with the instream, recreational, environmental values are there at the starting line, but they’re held back for the first two or three laps. Everyone else is already running. And that’s why the environment often ends up in a really bad place.”

A Palisade High School student puckers up and prepares to kiss a fish goodbye on Friday, May 1 at Riverbend Park in Palisade. About 1,500 juvenile razorback suckers and bonytail, two species of endangered fish that students helped raise in a hatchery, were released into the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

‘April hole’?

It’s not totally unheard of to have a small window of diminished streamflows in April. In a phenomenon known as the “April hole,” irrigation demands in the Grand Valley ramp up, while the needed water remains frozen solid as high-country snowpack. This problem remedies itself within a couple weeks as the snow begins melting. But this year, little snowpack remained by April and water managers think spring runoff at Cameo, where the big Grand Valley diversions are located, peaked during the March heatwave.

Kate Ryan is executive director of the Colorado Water Trust, which works to put water back into streams through temporary water sharing agreements with agricultural, municipal and industrial water users. Although the Water Trust is still finalizing contracts for this year, Ryan said she expects the Water Trust to add about 4,700 acre-feet of water to the 15-mile reach by leasing water from Ruedi Reservoir owned by the town of Palisade, and oil-and-gas company QB Energy.

In past years, water from this project has been released between the end of July and beginning of October. But that timing may change if the recovery program is trying to keep fish out of the reach.

“We will make sure that we deliver water at a point that complements the work of the recovery program,” Ryan said.

The Water Trust has also used the Colorado River Water Conservation District’s water marketing program — where acre-feet are available for purchase — to restore water to streams. But the River District board at its April meeting voted to freeze all new contracts, which are usually doled out first come, first served, while staff figures out the best use of the limited water supply.

The move was part of a series of drought mitigation actions aimed at easing shortages for water users. The board last month also approved a system for prioritizing water sectors, with keeping water in rivers at the bottom of the list: municipal and domestic water needs over agricultural and industrial needs; and agricultural and industrial needs over in-channel uses such as those that benefit the environment, endangered fish and recreation.

The Water Trust this week sent a letter to some water managers recognizing the historic drought and acknowledging that many of its temporary water sharing agreements, which pay water rights holders to leave water in streams, may not operate this year because their agricultural partners may not have enough water for their own use. Projects are voluntary and happen only in years when participants have enough water to share and it can benefit a stream.

But the letter also said there may be others who are interested in using their water rights to help prop up a stream this year.

“There is just so much uncertainty right now that we are trying to be as flexible and responsive as possible,” Ryan said.

Palisade High School students released two species of endangered fish into the Colorado River on Friday, May 1, 2026. Target flows for these fish in the 15-mile reach are often not met. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Recovery-program officials said this year they will double down on other actions that benefit endangered fish, including removing nonnative predator species such as smallmouth bass and stocking the river with hatchery-raised fish. On Friday, students at Palisade High School released 1,500 young razorback suckers and bonytails that they helped raise into the Colorado River at Riverbend Park in Palisade.

Recovery-program staff said managing the 15-mile reach this year is about preventing the worst impacts and seeing what lessons can be learned from one of the driest years on record.

“It is just new terrain,” said David Graf, instream flow coordinator for the recovery program. “I think we are just flying by the seat of our pants in a lot of ways trying to do triage management as opposed to really adapt.”

For now, one of the few ways to add water back to a depleted river remains borrowing it from other, more senior users.

“I think until our water suppliers and state government hear from people that the environment really is a priority, not just the recovery program and need to support endangered species, but also for communities and local economies across the board, it’s going to stay that way,” Ryan said.

Bicycling the Colorado National Monument, Grand Valley in the distance via Colorado.com

“Hear my words that I might teach you”: Sounds of Silence — Disturbed

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This Week’s Drought Summary

Looking Ahead

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🌵 Public Lands 🌲

📸 Parting Shots 🎞️

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A NEW WAY FORWARD

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A hot, dry winter

Wildfire

Low water supplies

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📸 Opening Shot 🎞️

🤖 Data Center Watch 👾

🌵 Public Lands 🌲 🏠 Random Real Estate Room 🤑

📸 Parting Shot 🎞️

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