Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Following a drier-than-normal winter, a pattern change at the beginning of March resulted in widespread heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches, locally more) and a 1-category improvement to parts of the Ohio and Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley. This drought improvement extended east to the Central Appalachians and the Northeast. However, a long-term drought continues for much of the Northeast. Despite the much-needed rainfall for portions of the Southeast and Southern Great Plains, severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought persists for many areas. A low snowpack and early onset of snowmelt are a major drought concern for the West. As of March 10, drought of varying intensity was designated for parts of Hawaii. Alaska and Puerto Rico remain drought-free…

High Plains

Widespread drought of varying intensity continues across much of the Central Great Plains and Central Rockies. Drought expanded this past week to include all of southwestern Colorado and intensified for northwestern parts of the state. The low snowpack throughout the Central Rockies, especially Colorado, remains a major concern heading into the spring. As of March 10, snow water equivalent for the river basins of Colorado is running below 70 percent of the 1991-2020 average. There were a couple exceptions to the worsening conditions. A wet snow (1” or more, liquid equivalent) supported the removal of extreme (D3) drought across parts of the Denver metro area. Heavy rainfall (more than 1.5 inches) prompted small 1-category improvements to eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska…

West

The low snowpack throughout much of the West is a major concern heading into the spring. As of March 10, snow water equivalent (SWE) is less than 40 percent of normal from the Cascades of the Pacific Northwest southward through the Great Basin and Four Corners region. 14-day temperatures, valid from February 25 to March 10, have averaged 5 to degrees F above normal. This warmer-than-normal end to February and start to March has led to an early onset of snowmelt for parts of the West. Although California remains drought-free, SWE is 53 percent of normal statewide according to the California Department of Water Resources. Overall, only minor changes were made this past week to the West Region. Based on increasing 60-day precipitation deficits and to reflect the low snowpack, abnormal dryness (D0) was added to parts of northern California. Drought expanded into southeastern Utah while intensifying to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought across northeastern and western portions of the state. Moderate (D1) drought was expanded across north-central to northeastern Washington along with central Oregon due to 30 to 90-day precipitation deficits and low snowpack…

South

Despite the locally heavy rainfall across the Lower Mississippi Valley along with eastern Oklahoma and Texas, only modest improvements were warranted as a favorable response among the various indicators was not enough to justify more widespread 1-week changes. However, targeted 1-category improvements were made to parts of northwestern Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley where weekly precipitation amounts exceeded 2 inches. In areas that missed out on the beneficial rainfall, drought intensified for parts of west-central Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle. A majority of the South Region has received less than half their normal precipitation with a temperature departure of more than 6 degrees F above normal during the past 90 days. These 3-month precipitation and temperature observations are consistent with a La Nina wintertime pattern…

Looking Ahead

In the wake of a cold front, sharply colder temperatures are forecast to overspread the eastern U.S. on March 12. A second and even stronger cold front is expected to progress east from the Great Plains to the East Coast by March 16. Following this strong March cold front, subfreezing temperatures are forecast to extend as far south as Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. According to the Weather Prediction Center, 5-day precipitation amounts from March 12-16 are forecast to exceed 1 inch, liquid equivalent, across the Great Lakes and New England. Much needed rainfall is also anticipated for drought-stricken Florida. Elsewhere, drier weather is forecast for the Ohio Valley, Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, and Great Plains. During mid-March, dry weather will be accompanied by an increasing chance of record heat across California, the Great Basin, and Southwest. A powerful Kona low will bring heavy to excessive rainfall to Hawaii through at least March 14. 

The NWS 6-10 day outlook (valid March 17-21) leans toward below-normal temperatures for the East, while above-normal temperatures are likely from the West Coast to the Great Plains. Above-normal temperature probabilities exceed 90 percent across most of California, the Great Basin, and Southwest. In contrast to the warmer–than-normal temperatures over the West, Alaska is likely to be colder-than-normal. A majority of the lower 48 states are favored to have below-normal precipitation from March 17-21 with the largest below-normal precipitation probabilities (greater than 50 percent) forecast across the Central to Southern Great Plains, Southwest, and much of California. The wet pattern is forecast to persist for Hawaii with enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities.

Click the link to read the analysis on the NOAA website:

March 9, 2026

Key Points:

• February was the fourth warmest and fifth driest on record for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) in the 132-year record.
• Winter (December 2024–February 2025) ranked as the second warmest for the CONUS and was the driest in 45 years.
• Arizona, New Mexico and Utah each broke their previous warmest-winter record by more than 2°F.
• A historic “bomb cyclone” during Feb 22–24 brought blizzard conditions, hurricane-force wind gusts and heavy snowfall from the Mid-Atlantic to New England.
• Alaska saw a particularly cold winter, recording much-below-average temperatures across parts of the central Interior.
• Drought conditions expanded by more than 10% in February to cover more than half of the CONUS.

Other Highlights:

Temperature

The CONUS average temperature during February was 40.4°F, 6.6°F above the 20th-century average. Extensive portions of the country west of the Mississippi River experienced much-above-average temperatures, while portions of the eastern seaboard observed below-average temperatures that ranked in the lowest third of their historical records. Seven states experienced one of their two warmest Februaries on record, including Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Oklahoma, which each set new statewide records.

The CONUS average temperature for meteorological winter (December–February) was 37.1°F, 4.9°F above the 20th-century average, ranking as the second-warmest winter in the 131-year record. Based on average temperatures across NOAA climate regions, the West and Southwest each experienced their warmest winter on record, while the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Plains as well as the South each ranked second warmest. In contrast, the Northeast climate region was cooler than average, ranking in the lowest third of its historical record.

Nine states recorded their warmest winter on record, with an additional five experiencing their second warmest. Daytime high temperatures were particularly notable, with the CONUS averaging 48.3°F—5.6°F above average—marking the warmest winter for daytime highs in the 131-year record and the first time the seasonal average exceeded 48°F. Eleven states also recorded their warmest winter for average maximum temperatures. At the county level, 585 counties—home to more than 116 million people, or roughly one-third of the U.S. population—experienced their warmest winter on record for daytime highs. Illustrating this exceptional warmth, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport recorded 16 days with maximum temperatures of at least 80°F, the highest seasonal total on record (since 1898) and about 60% above the previous record set in 2016–17.

Despite the widespread warmth, eight states stretching from Ohio to Massachusetts experienced below-average winter temperatures that ranked in the lowest third of their records.

The Alaska statewide temperature in February was 4.0°F, 0.8°F below the 1925–2000 average and ranked in the middle third of the 102-year period of record for the state. Much of mainland Alaska had below-average temperatures, contrasting with above-average conditions in southeast Alaska, the Aleutians and the lower Alaska Peninsula. Alaska’s average temperature for winter was 0.8°F, 2.8°F below the 1925–2000 average, ranking in the coolest third of the record. Much of the Alaska Interior recorded below- to much-below-average temperatures for the season, with Fairbanks Airport recording its coldest winter since 1970–71.

The Hawaiʻi statewide average temperature during February was 63.2°F, 0.2°F above the 1991–2020 average, ranking in the middle third of the 36-year record. For winter as a whole, the statewide average temperature was 64.4°F, 0.7°F above average, placing it in the warmest third of the record.

Precipitation

February precipitation for the CONUS was 1.37 inches, 0.76 inch below the 20th-century average and the driest since 2002. Significant precipitation deficits stretched from the northern Rockies and central Plains through the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast, and from parts of the Southwest and southern Plains across much of the Deep South and Southeast. In total, 11 states recorded one of their 10 lowest February precipitation totals, including Mississippi, which broke its 1947 record receiving less than 30 percent of its average February precipitation. In contrast, above-average precipitation was largely confined to a narrow corridor from the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes, with isolated areas across parts of the West and Northwest.

A historic blizzard on February 22–24 brought heavy snowfall and hurricane-force winds to portions of the Northeast. Providence, RI, reported its largest snowstorm on record, while several other cities recorded February totals not seen in more than a decade. The storm was classified as a major snowstorm based on NOAA’s Regional Snowfall Index (RSI), which estimates that snowfall affected more than 115 million people—about one-third of the U.S. population—including about 28 million people who received over a foot.

The CONUS received an average of 4.95 inches of precipitation during winter, 1.84 inches below the 20th-century average, ranking as the fifth-driest winter in the 131-year record. Large portions of the central and eastern U.S. experienced much-below-average precipitation—18 states recorded one of their 10 driest winters on record—while much of the western U.S. had near-average totals. A notable exception was Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, which received much-above-average to record winter precipitation.

Alaska’s average monthly precipitation in February ranked in the middle third of the 102-year period of record. For winter as a whole, precipitation across Alaska was also near average.

The Hawaiʻi statewide precipitation total during February was 8.11 inches, 3.01 inches above the 1991–2020 average, ranking in the wettest third of the 36-year record. Several records were set during the month as powerful Kona Lows delivered extreme rainfall, including over 25 inches in a single day on Oahu and a 72-hour total surpassing 30 inches on the Big Island. For winter as a whole, the statewide precipitation total was 16.22 inches, 0.33 inch below the 1991–2020 average, placing it in the middle third of the record.

Drought

According to the March 3 U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 54.9% of the CONUS was in drought, an increase of about 10.4% from the beginning of February. Drought persisted across much of the Rockies and the eastern seaboard and expanded or intensified across portions of the northern Rockies, Plains, Mississippi Valley, South and Southeast.

Monthly Report

Most of the CONUS is favored to see above-average temperatures in March, with the highest probabilities (exceeding 60–70%) centered over the South and Southeast, while Alaska is forecast to experience below-average temperatures, particularly in the Alaska Interior. Above-average precipitation is likely for a broad swath extending from the southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes. Drier-than-average conditions are favored for much of California and Florida. Visit the Climate Prediction Center’s Official 30-Day Forecasts for more details.

Drought is expected to persist across much of the interior West, Southwest and High Plains, along with the eastern seaboard. However, significant improvement or drought removal is forecast for parts of the Southern Plains, across much of the Mississippi Valley and Hawaiʻi. Visit the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook website for more details.

Significant wildland fire potential is above average across a wide region including the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, extending northward into Virginia. For additional information on wildland fire potential, visit the National Interagency Fire Center’s One-Month Wildland Fire Outlook.

For more detailed climate information, check out our comprehensive February 2026 U.S. Climate Report scheduled for release on March 12, 2026. For additional information on the statistics provided here, visit the Climate at a Glance and National Maps webpages.

Click the link to read the report on the NRCS website (and to visit the data for the individual basins). Here’s an excerpt:

Click the link to read the release on the NRCS website:

March 6, 2026

February storms increased Colorado’s snowpack from 53 to 60 percent of median. Warm early season conditions and limited snowfall from November through January slowed seasonal accumulation, leaving runoff forecasts below normal entering March.

Statewide snow water equivalent (SWE) improved during February following multiple storm systems, increasing seasonal accumulation from 53 percent of the 1991-2020 median earlier in the month to 60 percent of median by month’s end. Climatologically, February contributes about 17 percent of total seasonal SWE, while March contributes approximately 16 percent, together accounting for roughly one-third of the seasonal snowpack buildup. March and April typically represent the final opportunity for material snowpack recovery prior to the onset of melt. Median March accumulation is 3.015 inches, meaning a near normal March alone would not bring snowpack back to median levels.  

Through February, 82 percent of median precipitation has produced only 62 percent of median SWE, reflecting a lower-than-normal conversion of precipitation into stored mountain snowpack. Much of this divergence occurred early in the water year. Historical median October SWE accumulation is approximately 1.27 inches statewide, while water year 2026 accumulated only 0.39 inches despite receiving 3.46 inches of precipitation. This corresponds to roughly about a 1:9 precipitation to SWE ratio. Early season rainfall, particularly in October within the San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan (SMDASJ) basins, generated immediate runoff contributions rather than delayed meltwater. The approximately 12-foot rise at Navajo Reservoir reflects this front-loaded response. While beneficial for near term storage conditions, such inflows do not provide the sustained release characteristics of snowmelt driven hydrographs. As a result, reservoir storage metrics may appear relatively stable in aggregate (87 percent of median statewide), yet the underlying water supply outlook remains sensitive to late season snow accumulation.

Basin level streamflow forecasts reflect the limited hydrologic response to February storms (Figure 1). While February produced the largest monthly additions to snowpack this season, those accumulations were not sufficient to offset November – January shortfalls. As a result, forecast improvements were modest and uneven across the state. At the 50 percent exceedance probability, the statewide median April-July forecast is 58 percent of median. Most basins experienced downward adjustments between the February 1 and March 1 forecasts, including the Colorado Headwaters (58 to 56 percent), Gunnison (64 to 60 percent), Upper Rio Grande (60 to 56 percent), and Arkansas (63 to 57 percent). The South Platte continues to track higher than the rest of the state and remains at 76 percent of median. In contrast, the Laramie-North Platte basin remains the most constrained with runoff projections at 51 percent of median. Taken together outlooks indicate that February snowfall moderated forecast declines but did not materially shift the statewide water supply outlook. Without sustained accumulation through March and April, forecasts are likely to remain below typical levels for the 2026 water year. In southern basins such as the SMDASJ and URG, a meaningful portion of annual precipitation also occurs during the North American monsoon. Historical distributions show that roughly 30 percent of annual precipitation falls between June and September and contribute to late season reservoir inflows but typically arrives after the primary snowmelt driven irrigation demand period.  

Another consideration is soil moisture antecedent conditions. Early rainfall events partially recharged upper soil profiles in southern basins. However, if late season snowfall remains limited, runoff efficiency during melt could decline as soils absorb a portion of the initial meltwater. Conversely, where soils are near saturation, a rapid melt scenario under warm spring conditions could compress the runoff window and increase short duration flow peaks while limiting volume. The timing and persistence of cold conditions through March will therefore influence both peak SWE and runoff shape. 

* *For more detailed information about mountain snowpack refer to the Colorado Water Supply Outlook Report. For the most up to date information about Colorado snowpack and water supply related information, refer to the Colorado Snow Survey website.  

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Since the beginning of December 2025, drought expanded and intensified across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Great Plains which is typical during a La Nina winter. Much needed precipitation at the end of February led to small improvements across parts of the Southeast and also at least briefly stabilized the drought status for this region. Widespread severe to extreme drought is designated for much of the Carolinas, Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and Florida. A longer-term drought continues to affect the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Northeast. The unusually dry winter persisted across the Midwest through the end of February with additional degradations made this past week. These worsening drought conditions extend west to the Central Great Plains along with the Central to Northern Rockies. Below-normal snowpack remains a major concern for the West heading into the spring. Drought coverage decreased in Hawaii during the past few weeks, while Alaska and Puerto Rico remained drought-free…

High Plains

Although late winter is a relatively dry time of year across the Central Great Plains, periods of unseasonably warm temperatures and enhanced winds this past month led to intensifying drought across northeastern Colorado and Nebraska. 30-day temperatures averaged 6 to 10 degrees F above normal throughout the Great Plains. A 1-category degradation was made this past week to parts of Kansas and South Dakota. Widespread drought of varying intensity remains designated for much of Colorado and Wyoming. As of March 3, snow water equivalent is less than 70 percent of normal across the Central Rockies…

West

Water-year-to-date precipitation (October 1, 2025 to March 2, 2026) averaged below-normal for the Great Basin which led to a slight increase in moderate (D1) coverage across northeastern Nevada this past week. Following a drier- and warmer-than-normal February, a 1-category degradation was also made to parts of Montana. A 1-category degradation was also warranted for parts of Idaho, reflecting the below-normal precipitation and low snowpack this past winter. Even for areas of the West that have received above-normal precipitation since the beginning of October 1 such as the Northern Intermountain West and Northern Cascades of Washington, snow water equivalent (SWE) is running below normal. The low snowpack throughout much of the West is a major concern heading into the spring. As of March 3, SWE is less than 50 percent of normal from the Cascades of the Pacific Northwest southward through the Great Basin and Four Corners region. Although California remains drought-free, SWE is 59 percent of normal statewide according to the California Department of Water Resources…

South

Heavy rainfall (1 to 3 inches, locally more) resulted in a small 1-category improvement to parts of northeastern Tennessee. For the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Great Plains, drought continued to expand and intensify through the end of February and beginning of March. The major change this past week was a widespread 1-category degradation to Mississippi and also north-central Oklahoma. Since the beginning of December, precipitation has averaged less than 50 percent of normal across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Great Plains. Impact reports from north-central Oklahoma include poor wheat conditions and surface water supply shortages. An expansion of moderate drought (D1) was also warranted for northeastern New Mexico. In addition to the drier-than-normal winter, 90-day temperatures have averaged 2 to 6 degrees F above normal. The lack of winter precipitation combined with periods of unseasonably warm temperatures and enhanced winds led to an increasing coverage of severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought from the Mississippi River west through Oklahoma and Texas…

Looking Ahead

A major pattern change is underway which will promote multiple low pressure systems tracking across the Great Plains and Midwest during early to mid-March. The Weather Prediction Center (valid March 5-9) depicts a swath of heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches, locally more) from eastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma northeast through the Lower to Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This heavier precipitation is forecast to extend into parts of the Northeast, but little to no precipitation is expected from Virginia south to Florida. Much-needed snowfall is expected across the Northern to Central Rockies, while dry weather prevails across California and the Southwest. Much above-normal temperatures are forecast across the southeastern and central U.S. where daily record highs may be broken from March 5 to 9.

The NWS 6-10 day outlook (valid March 10-14) calls for an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for the East, Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, Southern Great Plains, Southwest, and California. Below-normal temperatures are more likely from the Pacific Northwest east to the Northern Great Plains. Below-normal temperatures are strongly favored for Alaska. The 6-10 day outlook favors above-normal precipitation from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Above-normal precipitation probabilities decrease west across the Great Plains. Above-normal precipitation is also favored for the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Near to below-normal precipitation is favored across Alaska, while large above-normal precipitation probabilities are forecast throughout Hawaii.

Just for grins here’s a slideshow of US Drought Monitor maps for the past few years.

The graphs below show missing data over the weekend.

Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Clayton Chaney):

February 26, 2026

A “real” winter storm rolled through Pagosa Country last week, leaving behind 1-2 feet, or more, of fresh snow in spots around the county. Meanwhile, Wolf Creek Ski Area reported nearly 5 feet of new snow, with a total of 59 inches falling from Feb. 17 through Feb. 21. According to reports entered into the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network five-day period ranged from 15.8 inches downtown up to 18.6 inches uptown. The highest totals were seen in the northern part of the county, ranging from 24 inches near Lake Hatcher up to 31.5 inches along the Mineral County border. As of Feb. 25, the ski area reported a year-to-date snowfall of 164 inches with a midway depth of 82 inches and a summit depth of 89 inches…

According to the Natural Resources Conservation Services (NRCS), as of Feb. 24, the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins were measured to be at 64 percent of its 30-year median snowpack. The statewide snowpack as of Feb. 25 was at 63 percent. A post by Shawn Prochazka from Pagosa Weather notes that the snowpack in the basins jumped from 42 percent to 60 percent during last week’s storm. “That’s an impressive jump this late in the season,” Prochazka writes. As of 11 a.m. on Wednesday, Feb. 25, Wolf Creek Pass, at 10,930 feet, had a snow water equivalent of 14.7 inches. The current amount is 64 percent of that date’s median snow water equivalent…

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor’s most recent map released on Feb. 19, which was valid as of Feb. 17, 100 percent of Archuleta County is in an “abnormally dry” drought stage, with 47.89 percent of the county (the northern half) in a “moderate drought” stage. The far northwestern portion of Archuleta County — 2.17 percent of the county — is in a “severe drought” stage.

Click the link to read the article on the CU Boulder Today website (Yvaine Ye):

January 28, 2026

Colorado’s warm and dry winters have tipped the balance in a long-running ecological tug-of-war.

The mountain pine beetles, native insects to the Centennial State, have recently exploded in numbers in the Front Range after a decade of relatively low populations. The mild winter temperatures have allowed more beetle larvae to survive, while the lack of water has weakened pine trees’ natural defenses against the bugs. 

Already, thousands of pine trees along the U.S. 285 and I-70 corridors are turning brown. The devastation prompted Gov. Jared Polis to sign an executive order in December to slow the spread of the beetles. 

“A very high level of tree mortality, especially among ponderosa pines, is likely to continue for the next decade,” the order warned. 

But the insects are not the antagonists of the story, said Samuel Ramsey, assistant professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and the BioFrontiers Institute. 

“They are doing exactly what evolution has primed them to do, and they are just able to do it to the maximum because of the ways that climactic contexts have shifted.  That is our fault,” he said.

The impact extends beyond tree loss. For the Front Range, a densely populated region already under persistent wildfire threat, dead trees can exacerbate risk. 

To unpack what’s behind the outbreak and what may come next, CU Boulder Today sat down with Ramsey to chat about its causes, the outlook for Colorado’s forests and steps people can take to limit the damage.

The Mountain pine beetles are native to Colorado. Why are they causing problems now?

As the climate has shifted, it has knocked the beetles out of their normal balance with the trees.  Because the weather has been warm for longer stretches of time, these beetles are able to produce an additional generation of babies, in addition to the dozens of offspring they usually produce.

How do the pine beetles attack trees?

The mountain pine beetles are smaller than a grain of rice. When a single pine beetle attacks a tree, it actually can’t do much damage.  So, when a pine beetle locates a tree, it will release a smell that tells all the pine beetles in the area to come and attack it. When 1,000 pine beetles all attack the same tree, some get through and lay eggs in the tree. Once inside, the beetles will gum up the tree’s vascular system, cutting off its water and nutrient supply. 

Do trees have a defense mechanism for keeping beetles out?

They did in the original climactic circumstances, such as secreting sap to push out the beetles. But when there isn’t enough water, they can only produce a small amount of sap, and that is not enough to fend off thousands of beetles that just keep coming at them.

With the warm weather, pine beetles are also maturing faster. That means the trees are starting their battle against the beetles earlier than they had planned. The trees are also fighting later into the season because of the additional generation of beetles.  

How bad will this round of the outbreak be?

I’m not a prognosticator, so I cannot tell you that this is going to be a terrible year. But the data is pointing in the direction. In the past, when we have had the same set of circumstances, we have had a banner year for mountain pine beetles. It is estimated that out of more than 4 million acres of pine forests across the state, more than 80% were damaged by the beetles between 1996 and 2013.

This winter has been really warm. That means that more pine beetles are going to survive the winter. So starting this year, their population will be large enough to likely overcome the defense of a lot of these trees. We could have dead stands of pine trees just sitting there ready to welcome the next wildfire.  

Are mountain pine beetle outbreaks unique to Colorado?

The mountain pine beetles are distributed in many parts of North America, but Colorado kind of has a perfect storm of circumstances. We have these issues with a warmer winter. Really high winds can help these pine beetles move farther distances when they’re flying. In addition, the wind can drive wildfires. Together, those factors make the risks here especially high. 

Are there any actions individuals can take to reduce the damage?

There are ways that we can lean into our agency here.

If you have a pine tree in your yard, you need to make sure that it has adequate water by watering it and reducing competition for water from other plants around it.  

If you are getting firewood, get it and burn it locally. It’s a really, really bad idea to move firewood, because you could inadvertently help spread the beetles.  

If you’re seeing mountain pine beetles in your area, and you haven’t seen that before, contact your local forest service office. 

The pheromone packets people used in the past might not be the best solution, because they won’t stop an infestation, and sometimes they can make the problem worse by drawing more beetles to an area than would’ve arrived otherwise.

As the climate continues to warm, these sorts of ecological issues are going to happen more often. So we need to make sure that instead of only treating the symptoms of climate change, we are reducing the amount of carbon that is going into the atmosphere. 

By Bob Berwyn

February 11, 2026

This article originally appeared on Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, non-partisan news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. Sign up for their newsletter here.

If you think of Earth’s climate system as a backyard swing that’s been gently swaying for millennia, then human-caused global warming is like a sudden shove strong enough to disrupt the usual arc and buckle the chains.

And if humans keep heating the planet with greenhouse gas pollution, the climate swing could lock Earth into a hothouse trajectory, as parts of the system feed on their own momentum, even if emissions are reduced later, an international team of scientists warned Wednesday in a new paper published in the journal One Earth. 

Their analysis covers 16 key Earth systems, including oceans, ice sheets and forests, that are likely to destabilize if the planet continues to warm. If large parts of the Amazon rainforest and tropical coral reefs die, they absorb less carbon dioxide, triggering a dangerous chain reaction of warming.

If Earth’s climate starts on a hothouse trajectory, it would represent a “global tipping point” as the heating sustains itself even if greenhouse gas emissions drop, said lead author William Ripple, a distinguished professor of ecology at Oregon State University and a leading researcher on climate tipping points.

In the backyard, that’s the moment when the push is so hard that the swing hesitates at the top, just long enough to show that the ride may not be under control anymore and the chains are being tested.

“What typically took thousands of years is now happening in decades,” Ripple said, adding that human-caused warming is already nudging the climate system out of 11,000 years of relative stability with good conditions for farming and societal development.

Earth could be entering a period of unprecedented climate change on a one-way trajectory, in which processes such as ice-sheet collapse can continue even if the average global temperature is stabilized, he said.

Recent observations suggest that the climate may be responding more strongly than some models predicted, Ripple added. “We are concerned that policymakers and the public may not yet be aware of these recent developments.”

In late January, another group of leading climate scientists urged policymakers to adopt a climate goal of limiting human-caused warming to 1 degree Celsius above the pre-fossil fuel era, which is more ambitious than the 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius target set in the Paris Agreement. They’ve also recently reported that Earth is losing its reflective sheen, which amplifies warming, and that key ocean currents are changing in ways that destabilize the entire global climate system. 

But it’s not clear if the scientific warnings are making a difference in “a post-truth era in which too many people prefer pleasant lies over unpleasant truths,” said Reinhard Steurer, a professor of climate policy and governance at the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna who studies how climate science and policy interact. He said that new studies outlining disastrous scenarios are unlikely to have much impact in the current political climate, but that researchers should keep speaking out, and not surrender to “techno illusions or hopium.”

The authors of the new paper stressed that a self-sustaining hothouse trajectory is not the same as a Hothouse Earth state, which would be when the global climate rebalances at a much hotter average temperature.

No Good Analog Climates

Instead of offering a single new climate forecast, the paper synthesizes decades of research revealing how different parts of the climate system influence one another. When one part of the system is destabilized, they wrote, it can amplify stress in others, pushing the planet along a self-reinforcing warming pathway. 

Earth has had hothouse climates in the ancient geological past. But the authors of the new paper said there may not be a parallel to what’s happening now, at least not during the past 3 million years, co-author Johan Rockström, co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said via email. 

“The reason is that our starting point is a WARM state. So, we are going from WARM to HOT,” he wrote. This may mean “getting stuck” at a global mean surface temperature of 4 to 6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, he added. 

That amount of warming goes beyond current expectations and would devastate ecosystems and communities globally. Many other current climate projections suggest that, under current policies, warming would level off somewhere between 2.7 and 3 degrees Celsius.

Human-caused warming is happening much faster than any other warming documented in the paleoclimate record, and it’s also unprecedented because it’s driven by a single dominant force, Rockström added: human greenhouse gas emissions. Under these conditions, research has documented that Earth is already losing some of the natural buffers that dampened climate swings in recent millennia.

“We now see worrying signs that the Earth system is losing resilience,” Rockström said. Recent extremes, he added, are a sign that the climate system “may respond more strongly to the same amount of warming than it did before.”

The authors wrote that the magnitude and pace of recent climate extremes “have surprised scientists, raising questions about how well current climate projections capture risk.”

One warning sign is the recent acceleration of warming, from about 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade from 1970 to 2014, to about 0.26 degrees Celsius in the last decade; another is the reduced carbon uptake in tropical, temperate and boreal forests. And, Rockström added, “Earth is getting darker, due to multiple factors,” including melting ice, tree lines moving closer to the poles in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and changing cloud patterns due to increased evaporation and moisture in the atmosphere.

The recent acceleration of warming was also noted recently by climate scientist James Hansen, a former NASA researcher who has accurately projected the planet’s global warming trajectory for several decades.

In a climate bulletin published last week, Hansen wrote that a current shift toward a warm tropical Pacific Ocean phase could push Earth to a new temperature record this year or next, potentially surpassing 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-fossil-fuel era benchmark sometime in the 2030s.

“Don’t be too pessimistic as the evidence for high climate sensitivity grows,” Hansen wrote in his Feb. 6 update. “Realistic understanding of the climate situation, and public recognition of that, is the essential first step toward successfully addressing climate change.” 

The science shows that climate stability is no longer guaranteed, Rockström said. Choices made this decade, he said, could shape the Earth System for generations.