May 2018 Southwest Drought Briefing — @DroughtGov

Southwest Drought Monitor May 22, 2018.

From NIDiS:

For a written summary of the webinar, please click here.

After Hearing Constituents’ Concerns, U.S. Sen. Thune Introduces Legislation to Improve Accuracy of U.S. Drought Monitor

US Drought Monitor May 22, 2018.

Here’s the release from Senator Thune’s office:

“I can’t say it enough – no one knows what’s needed to improve agriculture policy more than the farmers and ranchers who work the land and raise livestock in South Dakota.”

U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee and a longtime member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, today introduced the Improved Soil Moisture and Precipitation Monitoring Act of 2018, legislation that would provide tools and direction to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to help improve the accuracy of the U.S. Drought Monitor and require the coordination of USDA agencies that use precipitation data to determine livestock grazing loss assistance and stocking rates. He also introduced legislation to strengthen and improve the Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) of the National Weather Service, of which the Commerce Committee has jurisdiction, in order to support state-coordinated programs that provide data for the Drought Monitor and other weather programs. The COOP system is the nation’s largest and oldest weather network and is entirely run by volunteers. Thune introduced these bills after hearing directly from several concerned ranchers at an agriculture roundtable event that he hosted in Rapid City in April 2018.

“South Dakota farmers and ranchers are familiar with working through extreme weather conditions, especially drought,” said Thune. “And after the 2016 and 2017 drought conditions in much of Western South Dakota, some of them would probably say they’re all too familiar with it and are very concerned about accurate precipitation measurement. I recently heard some of those concerns firsthand, which is what led to the development of this legislation. Together, I’m hopeful that we can make the Drought Monitor a far more effective and efficient tool and, at the same time, ensure USDA programs are using accurate and consistent data in administering programs that are designed to help the agriculture community.

“I can’t say it enough – no one knows what’s needed to improve agriculture policy more than the farmers and ranchers who work the land and raise livestock in South Dakota. I’m thankful for everything they do for our communities and state and can say with certainty that this is not the first, nor will it be the last piece of legislation that will move through the halls of Congress thanks to their suggestions and input.”

Thune’s Improved Soil Moisture and Precipitation Monitoring Act would:

  • Grant the secretary of agriculture the discretion to improve soil moisture monitoring by increasing the number of monitoring stations or by utilizing other appropriate cost-effective soil moisture measuring devices;
  • Increase the number of precipitation and soil moisture monitoring stations in any area that has experienced extreme or exceptional drought for any six month period since the beginning of 2016, including South Dakota, and authorizes a $5 million per year appropriation to do so;
  • Require USDA to develop standards to integrate data from citizen scientists and to collect soil moisture data; and
  • Require USDA agencies to use consistent precipitation monitoring data and drought assessment across the programs that USDA administers.
  • Thune has heard a number of concerns with respect to the accuracy of the Drought Monitor, especially given its use in determining grazing disaster assistance through programs administered by the Farm Service Agency. Among these concerns is a frustration that USDA does not fully utilize data gathered by existing reporting stations to determine indemnities for insured grazing losses under the Pasture, Rangeland, Forage Insurance Program that is administered by the Risk Management Agency.

    Ranchers have also raised concerns about USDA’s differing rainfall and drought determinations during last summer’s drought that plagued Western South Dakota for several months. For example, the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) determined that some federal grazing lands were too dry and that stocking rates needed to be reduced on USFS grasslands. At the same time, the Drought Monitor classified the same area as not dry enough for ranchers to be eligible for Livestock Forage Program assistance. Thune’s legislation is aimed at addressing these and other concerns.

    #ColoradoRiver: “…we face an overwhelming risk on the system, and the time for action is now” — Brenda Burman #COriver #aridification

    From The Desert Sun (Ian James):

    The river basin, which stretches from Wyoming to Mexico, has been drying out during what scientists say is one of the driest 19-year periods in the past 1,200 years.

    Its largest reservoir, Lake Mead, now stands just 39 percent full. And the federal government has warned that the likelihood of the reservoir dropping to critical shortage levels is growing.

    With all indicators pointing to increasing risks of a water crash in the Southwest, the top official of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation came to the Imperial Valley with a message for the district that holds the largest single entitlement to Colorado River water: It’s time for action to avert a worst-case scenario, and everyone will need to pitch in.

    Reclamation Commissioner Brenda Burman told the Imperial Irrigation District’s board that she wants to see water agencies in California, Arizona and Nevada restart stalled talks on a “drought contingency plan,” under which all sides would agree to temporarily take less water from Lake Mead to keep it from falling to disastrously low levels.

    “It’s very important for us to start thinking about, what do we need to do to protect Lake Mead and to protect the water users?” Burman told the IID board on Tuesday. She pointed out that four states in the river’s Upper Basin are working on a regional drought plan, and that during the past three years, the three Lower Basin states had, until recently, been negotiating their plan, too.

    “Those talks have sort of fallen off. And I’m here to say for this secretary, for this administration, those talks need to be starting again,” Burman said.

    “We need to be talking about what does a drought contingency plan in the Lower Basin look like? And we need action. We need action this year,” she said. “If you take one message from what I’m saying today, it’s that we face an overwhelming risk on the system, and the time for action is now.”

    Stressing the urgency of her appeal, Burman showed a chart with a range of possible reservoir levels for Lake Mead in the mid-2020s, including a worst-case scenario in which the reservoir falls to “dead pool” — too low for [releases].

    #Drought news: Four Corners in need of a robust Southwest #Monsoon

    Click on a thumbnail graphic below to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor.

    Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

    Summary

    The active weather pattern persisted across most of the nation, though unfavorably dry, hot weather lingered over parts of the South and Southwest. During the 7-day period ending Tuesday morning, areas of heavy to excessive rainfall provided widespread drought relief across the central and southern Atlantic Coast States and from Texas northward into Montana and the Dakotas. Conversely, short-term dryness intensified along the central Gulf Coast, while worsening drought conditions were noted in portions of Arizona and Oregon. Likewise, short-term dryness continued to develop in parts of New England. Please note the wet weather pattern continued through the week; any rain that fell after 12z Tuesday (8 a.m., EDT) will be incorporated into the following week’s drought assessment…

    High Plains

    The overall trend toward improving conditions in the south contrasting with increasingly dry weather in the far north continued, though some northerly areas benefited from locally heavy rain. In southern Kansas, another week with moderate to locally heavy showers (1-3 inches, as high as 3.72 inches in Longton, KS) led to widespread reductions of drought intensity and coverage. Nevertheless, 6-month precipitation in the state’s lingering Extreme Drought (D3) was less than half of normal, while the Exceptional Drought (D4) in the state’s southwestern corner stood at less than one third of normal over the same time period. Moderate to heavy rainfall (locally more than 3 inches) in northeastern Colorado likewise trimmed the coverage of Abnormal Dryness (D0). In south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas, heavy rain (2-3 inches; Phillipsburg, KS, reported 3.95 inches) yielded a corresponding reduction of D0. In southeastern Nebraska, increasingly dry conditions over the past 90 days (40-60 percent of normal) led to a modest increase of Moderate Drought (D1) southwest of Lincoln. Farther north, sharply wetter conditions between Bismarck, ND, and Aberdeen, SD, (6.17 inches in Java, SD) resulted in a considerable reduction of D0. Beneficial rain (1-2 inches) was also reported in northeastern Montana, where D0 was reduced accordingly. Meanwhile, D1 and D2 were increased somewhat in North Dakota from Bismarck to the Canadian border, where 60-day rainfall shortfalls (locally less than 30 percent of normal) have added to the region’s lingering long-term drought…

    West

    Outside of beneficial rain in eastern-most portions of the region, lackluster water-year precipitation and unusual warmth have led to increasing drought despite the cool wet season having drawn to a close. Beneficial rain was reported during the period in northeastern portions of Montana and Colorado, resulting in reductions of Abnormal Dryness (D0) and as well as Moderate (D1) and Severe (D2) Drought. However, the overarching theme in the West continued to be the ongoing and intensifying drought in the lower Four Corners as well as the interior Northwest. In the latter region, Moderate and Severe Drought (D1-D2) were expanded over much of Oregon’s Harney Basin to reflect a sub-par water year (50-75 percent-of-normal precipitation, or 10-25th percentile) as well as protracted dryness over the past 60 days (less than half of normal). Farther south, Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4) Drought were expanded over Arizona. The numbers from the Four Corners Region as a whole tell a dire story, with water-year precipitation totaling a meager 10 to 30 percent of normal in the hardest-hit areas; the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which puts these values in a drought-intensity equivalent, are D3- and D4-equivalent over much of central and northeastern Arizona. A sub-par snowpack and above-normal temperatures have left little water available through snowmelt. Furthermore, the satellite-derived Vegetation Health Index (VHI) — which incorporates both vegetation greenness and thermal stress — shows extremely poor conditions over most of Arizona as well as neighboring portions of southern California and southern New Mexico. This region will be in need of a robust Southwest Monsoon beginning in early July to help offset the impacts brought on by this season’s Extreme to Exceptional Drought in the lower Four Corners Region…

    Looking Ahead

    An active pattern will continue, with two significant areas of wet weather over the next 5 days. Forecast data continues to show a tropical or subtropical system developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and lifting slowly northward over the Memorial Day holiday weekend; if this were to verify, the potential exists for another round of heavy to excessive rain (2-6 inches, possibly more) over the lower Southeast. Meanwhile, a pair of slow-moving storms system will produce moderate to heavy rain (1-4 inches) from the northern Rockies eastward across northern portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front will trigger showers over the western Corn Belt and Mississippi Valley. Despite the continuation of a generally active weather pattern, the Southwest will remain unfavorably dry. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for May 29 – June 2 calls for below-normal rainfall over the Northwest and from Texas and the southern High Plains into the Great Lakes and New England. In contrast, wetter-than-normal conditions are expected from the northern Great Basin into northern portions of the Rockies and Great Plains, with a second higher-likelihood area of above-normal rainfall over the southeastern quarter of the nation. Abnormal warmth is expected over most of the nation save for near-normal temperatures in the aforementioned rainy and cloudy Southeast.

    From the Kiowa County Press (Chris Sorensen):

    Despite the start of spring thunderstorms, Colorado’s drought situation continued to deteriorate. One-third of the state is in the two worst categories of drought.

    Some areas showed improvements, with the northeast and north central areas continuing to lead that trend as the area benefitted from moderate to heavy rain, with some locations receiving up to three inches of rain.

    Morgan county moved into drought-free conditions, while parts of Elbert, Lincoln, Cheyenne and Kiowa counties shifted to moderate drought from severe. Northern Douglas county is now abnormally dry, an improvement from moderate drought last week.

    Extreme drought expanded northward over the southeast plains to cover the remainder of Otero and most of Bent county. Extreme conditions expanded into Crowley county, as well as a larger part of Pueblo county. Fremont and El Paso counties saw severe drought overtake areas previously in moderate conditions.

    Minor changes were observed in northwest Colorado.

    Overall, more than one-fifth of the state is drought-free, a slight improvement over the previous week. Abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions also decreased slightly to about 14 percent each. Moderate drought dropped to about 17 percent of the state, while extreme drought increased to nearly 26 percent, both changing roughly three percent over the prior report. Exceptional drought was steady at about eight percent.

    One year ago, 94 percent of Colorado was drought-free, while about six percent was abnormally dry.

    From The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (Gary Harmon):

    The Colorado River at Cameo hit its peak May 15 with flows of 8,500 cubic feet per second.

    The average seasonal peak for the Cameo gauge is 13,600 cfs and it usually takes until June 9 to hit that high-water mark.

    “So not only is our seasonal peak below the average, it occurred over three weeks early and did not even reach the average flow on a day that is typically three weeks before the average seasonal peak date,” Knight said…

    Fontanelle Reservoir, which can hold 345,000 acre-feet of water, was 65 percent full on Wednesday and Flaming Gorge, which can hold back 357,000 acre-feet, was 87 percent full.

    Blue Mesa Reservoir, the largest body of water in Colorado with a potential volume of 830,000 acre-feet, was 61 percent full.

    Grand Valley water agencies already are asking consumers for voluntary reductions as they look forward to a long, dry summer.

    From Arizona Public Media (Anthony Perkins):

    Steven Miranda is fire staff officer for the Coronado National Forest. He says drought is bringing the threat of wildfires from the country to the city.

    “I would not say it could never happen,” said Miranda. “But when you look at some of the other places, like Colorado a couple of years ago, when things get in alignment, it’s very challenging.”

    Colorado suffered two straight years of deadly fire seasons in 2012 and 2013. In each case, more than 250,000 acres burned, and hundreds of homes were lost. More than three-quarters of Colorado baked under drought conditions just ahead of the wildfires.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s forecast for Colorado, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico for 2018 is warning of a similar setup. U.S. drought experts have categorized the region’s outlook as “exceptional,” and not in a good way. “Exceptional” is the worst drought condition. The forecast is leaving farmers, ranchers and water planners preparing for a tougher situation than last year, when only a fraction of the region was experiencing this much drought.

    Forestry officials are trying to get in front of wildfire danger. This week, they started closing parts of three national forests: Apache-Sitgreaves, Coconino and Tonto…

    Southern Arizona received some rainfall in the winter months, but forecasters maintain it wasn’t enough. The Arizona Department of Water Resources reported last winter was the driest on record.

    Arizona Game and Fish Department officer Karen Klima says the lack of moisture is significant for the state’s wildlife. She says desert wildlife can adapt to dry conditions, but animals are not accustomed to going through an entire season with little water.

    “Normally, when we have our monsoon precipitation, there are areas where water collects, and wildlife can use those areas in the drier months,” according to Klima. “We didn’t have that this year, so now they are really working down into areas where we have water, into areas where people have water out. People with fountains may see wildlife coming into their yard.”

    Klima says residents living near forest land shouldn’t be surprised to see unexpected visitors seeking to quench their thirst.

    Black Forest Fire June 2013 via CBS Denver

    2018 #COleg: Governor Hickenlooper signs the “Mussel-Free Colorado Act”

    Pueblo Reservoir

    From KRDO.com (Alexis Dominguez):

    Governor Hickenlooper was in Pueblo introducing the Mussel-Free Colorado Act.

    It provides funding for inspections of boats to help keep invasive species of mussels out of Colorado water.
    The mussels often create problems as they attach to rocks, docks and boats — clogging pipes.

    Under the law, Colorado residents will be required to buy a $25 Aquatic Nuisance Species sticker for their boat, while non-residents will pay $50.

    Colorado Parks and Wildlife Director, Bob Broscheid explains how this fee will help.

    “It’s paying into program that will allow us to continue to monitor, prevent any infested vessels from coming into the state of Colorado,” Broscheid said. “It’s basically the inspection system that we funded at all of our state parks that tries to intercept any contaminated boats.”

    Invasive mussels have not been a big problem in Colorado and lawmakers hope this act will keep it from becoming one.

    The fee will help pay for the cost of decontamination.

    Colorado Files Motion to Dismiss Water Access Case

    Your Water Colorado Blog

    By Larry Morandi

    A February 12 blog entitled “Public Access to Water Flowing Through Private Property” describes a lawsuit filed by a fisherman, Roger Hill, against a landowner, Mark Warsewa, over Hill’s ability to wade the Arkansas River adjacent to Warsewa’s land. By wading the river, Hill touches the streambed, which Warsewa says belongs to him and makes Hill guilty of trespass. Hill claims the Arkansas was navigable at the time of statehood and, therefore, the state owns the streambed and the public has access to it for recreational purposes. The case is in the U.S. District Court for Colorado.

    The litigation has taken a new twist with the state of Colorado filing two motions on May 7 to intervene in the case and then to dismiss it. The state’s argument is twofold. First, even though the suit does not name Colorado as a defendant, it is an essential party…

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