Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Shannon Mullane):

April 16, 2026

As Coloradans grapple with a record low snowpack heading into summer, the super El Niño and strong monsoon season in the forecast could provide some late summer relief.

Colorado’s weather is impacted by everything from temperature changes in the Pacific Ocean to pressure patterns over Texas — not to mention rising temperatures around the globe. This year’s La Niña conditions, created by cooler water temperatures in the Pacific, should have brought snow to Colorado’s northern mountains. Instead, the state ended the winter a month early with record hot days and a rapid snowmelt, prompting drought restrictions and water cutbacks around Colorado.

As of last week, the La Niña is over and the odds are increasingly good for a super El Niño later in 2026 — a climate pattern that has historically brought wetter winter conditions to Colorado, according to the National Weather Service.

It’s a tentative dose of hope for residents looking for a reprieve from record-breaking dry conditions, said Russ Schumacher, Colorado state climatologist and a professor at Colorado State University.

“Things are probably going to get worse before they get better,” Schumacher said. “I don’t think we’re going to be stuck in just dry, dry, dry for many, many more months to come. I think there is some reason for optimism.”

A lot of Colorado’s bad drought years have come during La Niña conditions, and Colorado has had multiple La Niña years in a row. Colorado should be rooting for La Niña to go away at this point, he said.

“It doesn’t guarantee that things are going to improve in the near term,” Schumacher added, “but we have a better chance of it if La Niña is in the rearview mirror.”

What are El Niño and La Niña?

El Niño and La Niña are opposing climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide. Together, they’re called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, ENSO for short.

The patterns vary based on water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that are influenced by winds circling the Earth near the equator, called trade winds because of their use in early sail-dependent commerce.

Meteorologists watch a specific region in the Pacific near the equator to determine whether the water temperature is warmer or cooler than normal, said Erin Walter, a service hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.

If the region’s water temperature is more than 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than usual, then scientists call it an El Niño.

If the temperature is more than 0.5 degrees Celsius cooler than usual, it is a La Niña.

“They’re basically like opposite waves,” Walter said. “They ebb and flow together. And they’re more irregular than one would think.”

The warmer or cooler temperatures need to last for months before scientists will shift the classification from neutral into El Niño or La Niño territory. The climate patterns typically last nine to 12 months, but can sometimes last for years.

El Niño and La Niña events occur every two to seven years, on average, but they don’t occur on a regular schedule. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Fun fact: The names for the two climate patterns can be traced back to observant South American fishermen in the 1600s, NOAA says.

The fishermen first noticed periods of unusually warm weather in the Pacific Ocean and called the resulting patterns El Niño de Navidad, the Christmas Child or the Christ Child in English, because El Niño typically peaks around December.

La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event,” according to NOAA.

How do ENSO cycles impact Colorado and the world?

The temperature fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean impact how and where jet streams, narrow bands of strong wind, flow in the atmosphere. Those jet streams impact which regions of the world have a dry spell, and which ones are hit with storms.

The ENSO events can lead to flooding, heavy rains, landslides and drought. They change where fish can find nutrients in the ocean. La Niña can lead to a more severe hurricane season, according to NOAA.

In the United States during El Niño conditions, a subtropical jet stream moves across southern states, like California, Texas and Florida, making them cooler and wetter than usual. Northern states tend to be warmer and drier than average, Schumacher said.

During La Niña, the jet stream comes out of the Northwest across the western United States. The Pacific Northwest and Midwest are cooler and wetter than average, while the Southwest is warmer and drier than average.

Colorado sits in the middle, which makes it harder to define clear impacts of ENSO events and to separate them from other common climate variations around the Rocky Mountains, Schumacher said.

Typically, El Niño tends to bring wetter-than-average conditions, particularly to southern Colorado and in the fall and spring. (This year, that would mean fall 2026 and spring 2027.)

During La Niña, the conditions flip. Colorado’s northern mountains often receive more snow while southern portions of the state are warmer and drier.

That doesn’t always happen: This winter is an example of La Niña conditions that did not drop very much snow on the northern part of the state — or anywhere.

Which team should Coloradans be on? Definitely El Niño, Schumacher said.

“It tilts the odds towards things being wetter,” he said.

A “super” El Niño in the forecast

This year, the region’s water temperature is more than 2 degrees Celsius warmer than usual for multiple months — prompting climate scientists to dub it a super El Niño.

They expect neutral conditions between April and June. After that, conditions could stay neutral or transition into a strong El Niño, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. Seeing El Niño conditions is likely, but whether they appear will depend on wind patterns over the Pacific Ocean.

For anyone looking for rain and snow in Colorado, this is a reason for optimism later in the summer and for the coming winter, Schumacher said.

In 1997, the last really strong El Niño brought moisture to most of Colorado in the summer and fall. There were floods along the Front Range and Eastern Plains.

But just because that’s what happened one other time doesn’t mean Colorado will see the same conditions again.

“It would be speculation to read too much into that,” Schumacher said.

So what exactly would a super El Niño mean for Colorado?

“The short answer is, we don’t really know,” he said.

Climate and weather researchers only have a few similar years in history to analyze, and that’s not enough data to identify clear trends with high certainty. There have been only five strong El Niños since 1950, with the last taking place from 2015 to 2016.

“In terms of what that’s going to mean for how the jet stream responds to that, and then in turn, what kind of precipitation we get in Colorado?” Schumacher said. “I think it’s too early to say.”

The non-Niño weather event you should be watching

There is one other weather phenomenon that will come into play this summer: monsoons.

“The outlooks are pointing towards the active monsoon season this summer, and so that’s probably the thing to keep a closer eye on in the near term,” he said.

Monsoons are different from ENSO patterns. El Niño conditions are stronger in the winter and weaker in the summer and have global impacts.

Monsoons are local seasonal circulations that develop every summer in the Southwest. They arise when shifting wind patterns bring moisture from the eastern Pacific and the Gulf of California into the Southwest.

Active monsoon seasons can provide a large fraction of the annual precipitation to lower elevations in parts of the state, like western and southeastern Colorado. This year’s forecast indicates monsoons are likely for July, August and September, Schumacher said.

These active seasons bring afternoon thunderstorms every day and flash floods in Colorado’s canyons. They can help reduce some of the risks of a historic drought year, like wildfire risks later in the summer.

“As with any seasonal forecasting, it’s uncertain,” Schumacher said. “Four months out it’s hard to put really high probabilities on anything.”

What do monsoons mean for Colorado’s water supply?

An active monsoon season will offer some relief, but it will not refill Colorado’s reservoirs.

The monsoon storms might bring intense rain over a short amount of time, but in the big picture, they do not provide very much water. The amount of water that normally comes from a big winter snowstorm is much higher than the amount of water in an afternoon storm. The cloudy and cool weather with rain showers would help reduce the demand for outdoor irrigation for gardens and crops while providing a small boost in the supply, Schumacher said. [ed. emphasis mine]

“Monsoon rains just aren’t nearly enough to fill up reservoirs or even bring them back up from really low levels,” he said.

More by Shannon Mullane

Aside from Florida, nearly the entire contiguous U.S. has experienced earlier than average first plant blooms in 2026. Earlier springs can cause longer allergy seasons, accelerate wildfire risk, increase pests/mosquitoes, and lead to less reliable snow-fed water.Map: http://www.usanpn.org/data/maps/sp…

— Zack Labe (@zacklabe.com) 2026-04-19T19:57:09.003Z

Click the link to read the release on the Colorado State University website (Anthony Lane):

April 10, 2026

Colorado State University Extension experts are working with partners statewide to host drought planning workshops for farmers, ranchers and land managers seeking advice and support responding to the state’s abnormally dry conditions.
 
The workshops, drawing on materials and expertise from the Colorado Agricultural Drought Advisors, will highlight research on drought resilience and adaptation, with a focus on supporting agricultural producers as they develop and refine their own drought-response plans.  

“Our goal at these workshops is to leverage what farmers and ranchers already know,” said Retta Bruegger, a CSU Extension range management specialist who co-founded Drought Advisors in 2020. “We offer support and a flexible framework to help producers create a formalized plan that they can use to make more strategic decisions when coping with drought.”

The workshops

Responding to Drought Impacts in 2026: A Workshop for Livestock Producers
Routt County
5:30-8:15 p.m. Monday, April 13 
STARS Ranch, 35465 U.S. Highway 40, Steamboat Springs

When in Drought: Smart Irrigation and Soil Management
Larimer County
8 a.m. to noon Tuesday, April 21 
McKee Building at The Ranch, 5280 Arena Circle, Loveland
(The program will continue with a drip irrigation demonstration from noon to 2 p.m. at Flores Del Sol Natural Area, 8101 S. Timberline Road, Fort Collins.)

Agriculture Drought Management Workshop
Montezuma County
5:30-7:30 p.m. Thursday, April 23
Lewis Arriola Community Center, 21176 County Road S, Cortez

Details forthcoming for the following:

• Fremont County on Wednesday, June 10
• Morgan & Adams County (date TBD)

In addition to hosting workshops, Drought Advisors provides one-on-one drought planning assistance and offers resources for producers statewide, including the “Colorado Agricultural Drought Handbook” and sample drought plans . For more information, visit https://droughtadvisors.org. 

Click the link to read the article on The High Country News website (Anna Marija Helt):

April 14, 2026

Old snow crunched underfoot in mid-January as a dozen people snowshoed near Molas Pass in Colorado’s San Juan Mountains. The interpretive hike, hosted by local environmental organizations, covered ecology, climate change and snow. It was the perfect classroom: below an azure sky, bare ground beneath trailside spruces and pines was a local example of what turned out to be a devastating lack of snow across the West.

Mountain snowpack is the West’s largest reservoir, providing water for 100 million people and diverse ecosystems. The amount of water stored in the snowpack historically peaks around April 1. But this year, the snowpack in many places was absent, or nearly so, by then — the lowest level in the 45 years since automated measurements began.   

A stubborn high-pressure ridge contributed to the snow drought by shunting winter storms north to Canada in January. But the main culprit, according to the nonprofit Climate Central, was exceptional heat from climate change, which also caused a spring heat wave that decimated what snow there was at a time when other dry winters have seen “miracle March” snowstorms.

The lack of snow was unusually widespread across the Western U.S. But considering it as a whole makes it easier to miss the regional manifestations and implications of a winter that also brought record flooding and record dryness in addition to record heat. Here’s how the snow drought played out in a few regions that exemplify this winter’s variability:

Whiplash in Washington’s Cascades

Winter in Washington’s Cascade Range started and ended in “wet” snow drought — with precipitation falling as rain instead of snow. In December, over 2 feet of rain fell in two weeks in some places, melting much of the nascent snowpack and causing catastrophic flooding west of the Cascades. But it also replenished reservoirs in the Yakima Basin, on the drier eastern side of the range, which were only 8% full in October, a quarter of their normal volume.

Dry snow drought hit in January, when little precipitation fell. While pockets of Washington’s Cascades saw near-normal precipitation in February, most of the mountains stayed dry, and the range’s snowpack remained well below average. Then, despite several feet of snow landing in March, rain followed and washed it away.

That’s a problem for the Yakima Basin, which lacks the reservoir capacity to store enough runoff to meet the region’s needs. The snowpack typically serves as an additional reservoir, storing water as snow into summer, said hydrogeologist and geochemist Carey Gazis of Central Washington University in Ellensburg.

South of Ellensburg lies the Yakima Valley — the “fruit bowl of the nation” — where snowmelt is essential for irrigating crops, including cherries, apples, grapes, hops and mint. It also supports the Yakama Nation’s efforts to restore populations of culturally important migratory fish. As of March, the Bureau of Reclamation forecasted that many farmers in the Yakima Valley would receive just 44% of their usual water supply this growing season due to the snow drought.

One long-term solution is to create more water storage by augmenting aquifers. “There’s all this space under the surface that can hold more water,” said Gazis, who studies such processes. Projects pumping runoff or enhancing passive water infiltration into the ground are already happening in parts of the basin, including on the Yakama Nation reservation.

Northern Rocky Mountain high

As in Washington’s Cascades, winter in the Rocky Mountains of Idaho, Montana and western Wyoming was bookended by wet snow droughts, with a dry January in between. However, colder temperatures at higher elevations allowed for a near- to above-average snowpack in some areas that persisted into mid-March, leaving them in better shape than most of the West in early April.

That helped places dependent on winter tourism, such as Idaho’s Wood River Valley. “It’s as busy as ever, if not a little busier, because we have snow,” unlike many other winter destinations, such as those in Colorado, said the director of the valley’s Environmental Resource Center, Ashton Wilson, in February.

Additionally, Russell Qualls, Idaho’s state climatologist, speculated that the Wood River Basin and others nearby may do “fairly well” this summer in terms of providing water for the towns and agriculture that depend on them.

But little to no snow at middle and lower elevations in Idaho, Wyoming and Montana — and ongoing unseasonable heat — might mean a long fire season unless sufficient rain arrives in spring and summer. Indeed, while fire season usually starts in May or June in Montana and Wyoming, both states experienced wildfires over 1,000 acres in March.

But high and dry in Colorado

Colorado also experienced such medium-sized wildfires, but they started much earlier — in December. Both December and January were abnormally dry, and one of the few storms that did arrive dropped rain at up to 11,000 feet — unusually high for winter, and unprecedented in much of Colorado.

This was evident at the January snowshoe hike near Molas Pass, led by the San Juan Mountains Association and Mountain Studies Institute. Outdoor educator Colin Courtney guided attendees wielding avalanche shovels in digging a snow pit to measure the snowpack’s depth and water content. With a dull thunk, shovel blades hit dirt just 2 feet down. As he melted snow samples over a camp stove, Courtney noted that the snowpack at the pass held 23% as much water as in an average year — the snow water equivalent, a more meaningful measurement than depth alone when planning for annual water needs and wildfire risk. “It’s a very real thing to be concerned this year,” said Courtney.

There are ecological threats, too. Research in New Hampshire and Finland has shown complicated effects on tree health when root systems lack an insulating layer of snow during winter. The impact on trees here — already stressed from the worst megadrought in 1,200 years —isn’t known.

“This is our worst snowpack on record,” wrote climatologist Allie Mazurek of the Colorado Climate Center in an early April email. She blamed the West’s record-breaking March heat wave for tipping the state beyond its prior historic low, in 1981.

Denver has already initiated water restrictions. But the implications go beyond state lines: Colorado’s snowpack also provides water to 18 other states, dozens of tribal nations and parts of Mexico. The Colorado River Basin provides drinking water for one in 10 people in the U.S., irrigates over 5 million acres of cropland and generates substantial hydroelectric power. This year’s snow drought is exacerbating an already fraught fight among the seven states in the Colorado Basin over how to manage the dwindling river.     

“One caveat to some of this is El Niño,” wrote Mazurek. The climate pattern may bring lots of rain to Colorado, and forecasters expect it to develop in early fall. “Still, rain tends to do much less for our water supply than snow,” she added.

And snow is a resource that will likely be in shorter and shorter supply in the years to come in the West, where researchers expect climate change to shrink snow-supplied water by about a quarter by mid-century. Mazurek summed up the region’s predicament succinctly: “We should probably be preparing for less water to be coming down from the mountain snowpack than usual.”

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Much of the country continued to experience above-normal temperatures in April. During the last week, the warmest temperatures were over the southern Midwest and into the central Plains, where departures were 9°F or greater. California and portions of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic were near normal to slightly below normal. Dryness has continued in the Southeast, portions of the South, the Northeast, and much of the High Plains. The greatest precipitation occurred in the Great Basin, northern California, central and west Texas, northeast Kansas, and across much of Michigan and Wisconsin, where spring thunderstorms developed within an active weather pattern, mainly over the Midwest…

High Plains

Temperatures were mostly above normal, with only eastern North Dakota and northeast South Dakota near or below normal. The greatest departures occurred in central Kansas, where temperatures were 12–15 degrees above normal. Above-normal precipitation was observed in southwest and northern North Dakota.

Kansas experienced the most active weather, with southwest and eastern areas of the state and southeast Nebraska recording above-normal precipitation. Some areas of northeast Kansas received more than 400% of normal precipitation. These rains led to improvements in abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions across southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. Some areas of eastern Nebraska and south-central Kansas also saw improvements.

Extreme drought expanded across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, while severe drought expanded across southwest Kansas. The plains of eastern Colorado experienced nearly a full-category degradation, with expansion of moderate, severe, and extreme drought…

West

Warmer-than-normal temperatures dominated the region this past week. Departures were 6–8 degrees above normal across most of Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming. Only the Sierra Nevada area and northern California were near to slightly below normal.

Precipitation was mixed, with parts of northern California, northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, southern Utah, eastern and western New Mexico, southwest Idaho, and eastern Washington receiving above-normal precipitation.

The lack of snowpack will continue to impact the region in the coming months. Earlier-than-normal snowmelt, below-normal seasonal totals, and increased liquid precipitation are contributing to hydrological impacts.

Changes this week included improvements in moderate drought in northeastern California and expansion of moderate and severe drought in southern Arizona. Southern Idaho into northern Nevada saw expansion of severe, extreme, and exceptional drought, while severe drought expanded across eastern and northern New Mexico…

South

Precipitation was mixed across the region. Oklahoma and much of central and western Texas received more than 150% of normal precipitation. Farther east, eastern Arkansas and Louisiana saw light precipitation, while areas farther west and into Tennessee remained mostly dry.

Temperatures were above normal across much of the region, with only southern Texas, southern Louisiana, and eastern Mississippi near or below normal. The greatest departures occurred in western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, where temperatures were 12–15 degrees above normal.

Drought expanded and intensified across much of Tennessee, with moderate and severe drought expanding statewide and a new area of extreme drought developing in the northwest. In Mississippi, moderate and severe drought expanded across eastern and southern areas, with extreme drought expanding in the northwest. Arkansas remained dry, with extreme and exceptional drought expanding in both northern and southern areas.

Louisiana saw expansion of extreme drought across much of the south, as well as central and northern areas. Moderate and severe drought also expanded across southern portions of the state. Oklahoma remained largely unchanged, with only minor expansion of severe drought in the panhandle.

The most significant improvements occurred in Texas, where much of central, southern, and southeastern portions of the state saw a full-category improvement in drought conditions. However, severe drought expanded in parts of the panhandle…

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5–7 days, precipitation is expected to be most prominent across the southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The heaviest precipitation is likely from eastern Kansas into Missouri and northward into eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and the Great Lakes.

Additional precipitation is expected from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and High Plains. Dryness is likely to persist across much of the Southwest and Southeast.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal from the northern Rockies into the High Plains, with the greatest departures in western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and central Montana (10–13 degrees above normal). Cooler-than-normal temperatures are anticipated across much of central Texas (5–9 degrees below normal), while warmer-than-normal conditions are expected across the Mid-Atlantic (5–7 degrees above normal).

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the locations with the best chances of experiencing below- normal temperatures are in the Southwest, especially those locations in Arizona and southern Nevada and California as well as in New England with the best chances in both Arizona and Maine. There is a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures over much of the Midwest, Plains, and into the South and Southeast with the best chances over Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma into southern Nebraska and Iowa. Precipitation chances are expected to be near-normal over southern Florida and southern areas of New Mexico and Arizona. Near-normal precipitation is also expected over the Pacific Northwest, upper Midwest and into the Northern Plains. In the Northeast, there will be a mix of near-normal to below-normal precipitation chances. Most of the rest of the country has above-normal chances of recording above-normal precipitation with the greatest chances over an area from northern Louisiana to Indiana.

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:

April 8, 2026

Key Takeaways:

• Warmest March: The contiguous U.S. (CONUS) average temperature was 9.4°F above the 20th-century average, making March 2026 the warmest March in the 132-year record.
• Prolonged warmth: The April 2025–March 2026 period now stands as the warmest 12-month span ever recorded for the CONUS (since 1895).
• Record daily heat: 1,432 counties—over half the CONUS area and one-third of the population—observed their single warmest March day on record (1950–present).

• Record-dry year to date: The January–March period was the driest on record for the CONUS—less than 70% of average—breaking the previous record set in 1910.
• Notable drought footprint: Dry conditions expanded drought to nearly 60 percent of the CONUS—the largest extent of drought since November 2022.
• Cold in Alaska: Alaska had its fourth-coldest March on record (since 1925) and the coldest since 2007.

Other Highlights:

Temperature

The CONUS average temperature in March was 50.85°F, 9.35°F above the 20th-century average, marking the first time any month’s average has exceeded 9°F above that baseline. Maximum daytime temperatures were especially high, averaging 11.4°F above the March average and 0.9°F above the April long-term average.

Much of the country south of the far northern tier, from the Pacific to the Atlantic, experienced much-above-average temperatures. A broad region spanning the central Pacific Coast, Great Basin, Southwest, and parts of the Rockies and southern Plains observed record warmth, highlighting the widespread extent of the month’s exceptional temperatures.

Ten states recorded their warmest March on record: Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Across all of these states, average temperatures exceeded their respective April averages, with California also eclipsing its average May temperature by 0.7°F.

At the county level, more than 500 counties—covering over one-quarter of the CONUS and affecting an estimated 79 million people—recorded their warmest March on record, reflecting the broad geographic footprint of the month’s record warmth.

Hawai‘i’s statewide average temperature was 65.0°F, 1.5°F above the 1991–2020 average, ranking as the fifth-warmest March in the 36-year record. Daytime temperatures were near average, but statewide average minimum temperatures stood out at 59.2°F—the warmest March nighttime temperatures on record (1991–present), more than 1°F above the previous record set in 2006.

In contrast, Alaska’s statewide average temperature was 0.6°F, 10.2°F below the 1925–2000 average. While the North Slope remained near average, much of the state experienced much-below-average temperatures, with parts of the southeast interior, southern coast and panhandle recording record-cold conditions. Minimum temperatures were especially notable, ranking as the third-coldest March on record and the coldest since 1972.

Precipitation 

The average precipitation total for the CONUS in March was 1.83 inches, 0.68 inch below the 20th-century average, ranking as the eighth-driest March in the 132-year record. Combined with January and February deficits, this period marks the driest first three months of any year on record for the CONUS.

March precipitation was much below average across much of the West, Southwest, portions of the Plains, Deep South and Southeast. In contrast, above-average precipitation totals fell across parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, as well as across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

In total, nine states across the Lower-48 ranked among their 10-driest Marches. California received less than a quarter-inch of precipitation statewide—less than 10% of its 20th-century March average and the lowest March total in the 132-year record. Colorado and New Mexico each tied their second-driest March on record, while North and South Carolina each experienced one of their five-driest Marches. In contrast, Michigan received nearly twice its average March precipitation—its third-highest March total on record.

Simultaneously hot and dry conditions affected 12 states, where much-above-average temperatures occurred alongside much-below-average precipitation, with potential impacts on snowpack and water resources in the coming months. California exemplified these extremes, recording both its warmest and driest March on record.

Precipitation across Hawai‘i was much above average for the month, with many areas—including large portions of the Big Island, Maui, Moloka‘i and O‘ahu—experiencing their wettest March on record (since 1991). This exceptional wetness was driven by back-to-back Kona low systems mid-month that triggered widespread major flooding and landslides across the island chain.

Alaska’s statewide precipitation was much lower than average, especially over portions of the Southwest, the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians. However, the cold air over mainland Alaska brought above-average snowfall to much of Southeast Alaska, with several locations recording their highest March totals in more than a decade.

Drought

According to the March 31 U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 59.9% of the CONUS was in drought, an increase of about 5.0% from the beginning of the month. Drought conditions persisted or intensified across much of the interior West, the Plains, Mississippi Valley, South and Southeast, with notable degradation across the Rockies and central Plains. In contrast, drought contracted or eased across portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

Monthly Outlook

Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the CONUS for April, with the highest probabilities centered over the Great Basin, Four Corners region and parts of the Southeast. Above-average precipitation is favored for a corridor stretching from the southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into the Northeast, while drier-than-average conditions are forecast for the West and parts of the central Rockies and Southeast. Above-average temperatures and precipitation are indicated for northern and western parts of Alaska. Visit the Climate Prediction Center’s Official 30-Day Forecastsfor more details.

Drought is expected to persist and expand across much of the interior West, Southwest, Rockies and High Plains, as well as parts of the South, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. However, some improvement or drought removal is forecast for parts of the southern Plains, Mississippi Valley and Northeast. Visit the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook website for more details.

Significant wildland fire potential is above normal across portions of the Southwest, southern Plains and central High Plains and much of the Deep South and Southeast. For additional information on wildland fire potential, visit the National Interagency Fire Center’s One-Month Wildland Fire Outlook.

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For more detailed climate information, check out our comprehensive March 2026 U.S. Climate Report scheduled for release on April 13, 2026. For additional information on the statistics provided here, visit the Climate at a Glance and National Maps webpages.

Click the link to read the briefing on the Western Water Assessment website:

April 9, 2026 – CO, UT, WY

March weather conditions promoted rapid intensification of snow drought. Snowpack peaked three to nine weeks early and sits at record low levels at most locations in Colorado, Utah and much of Wyoming. Record low snowpack was driven by low March precipitation and record hot March temperatures. Consequently, drought conditions expanded to cover 93% of the region, and annual streamflow volume forecasts are much below normal with 22% of normal inflow forecasted for Lake Powell.

March precipitation was below average for nearly the entire region. Large areas of less than 50% of average March precipitation were observed in all three states with the least precipitation falling in eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Record low March precipitation was observed in Baca, Bent, Gunnison, Hinsdale, Las Animas, Prowers, and San Juan Counties in Colorado. Water year precipitation varied with above average precipitation in northwestern Wyoming, southern Colorado and southern Utah, while much of the remainder of the region received 50-90% of average water year precipitation.

An extreme and widespread heat wave hit the region during March, and temperatures were 9-12 degrees above average for much of the region. Record high March temperatures were observed at the majority of locations in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. All-time maximum March temperatures were set across the region with many locations recording higher temperatures than all-time April records.

April 1 SWE conditions were record-low for all regional river basins, except those in northwestern Wyoming. On a statewide basis, record-low snowpack was observed in Colorado (24% median), Utah (22% median), and Wyoming (47% median). Snowpack in many southern Colorado and southern Utah watersheds has melted up to 65 days early, including the Upper Arkansas, Upper Dolores, and Upper Gunnison River basins in Colorado and the Dirty Devil, Escalante, Price, and San Pitch River basins in Utah. Record heat and low precipitation in March caused regional snowpack to peak nearly one month early. Typically, on April 1, only three of 213 Snotel sites in Colorado and two of 179 sites in Utah are melted out completely. On April 1, 2026, 36% of Snotel sites in Colorado, 60% of sites in Utah, and 28% of 196 sites in Wyoming were melted out. The snowpack in the Upper Colorado River basin peaked at a record low percent of median peak SWE and was 27% of median on April 1.

After low and early peak snowpack, annual streamflow volume forecasts were much below average on April 1. Annual streamflow volume forecasts ranged from 25-45% of average in Colorado, 20-55% of average in Utah and 25-100% of average in Wyoming. The inflow to Lake Powell is forecasted at 22% of average (1.4 million acre-feet). Regional streamflow forecasts were highest in the Snake and Missouri River basins of northern Wyoming where streamflow volume forecasts ranged from 65-100% of average.

Regional drought intensified during March, and 93% of the region is experiencing severe drought conditions. Extreme drought conditions developed across a broad swath of Utah, western Colorado and southeastern Wyoming, and now cover 45% of the region. Drought in western Colorado worsened by two to three categories, and exceptional drought developed in northwestern Colorado where exceptional drought conditions coincided with the 137,000-acre Lee Fire in August 2025.

Pacific Ocean temperatures have warmed, and ENSO-neutral conditions (ocean temperatures are within 0.5ºC of average) now exist. Warming sea surface temperatures prompt an 80% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions during April-June, and NOAA issuing an El Niño Watch. ENSO forecasts predict a 60% chance of El Niño conditions developing by May-July and continuing through the end of 2026. There is a 25% chance of a very strong El Niño developing during the beginning of the 2027 water year. NOAA seasonal forecasts for April-June suggest an increased probability for below average precipitation and up to a 70% probability for above average temperatures.

Significant weather event: March heat wave. The heat wave during March 2026 was unprecedented in the western U.S. climate records since 1895. March 2026 average temperatures shattered records in Colorado (by 4.3ºF), Utah (by 5.5ºF), and Wyoming (by 2ºF). Amongst weather monitoring sites with at least 50 years of data, new March temperature records were set at 85% of sites in Colorado, 82% of sites in Utah and 60% of sites in Wyoming. In Utah, previous March temperature records were exceeded by 9.7ºF in Alta and 8.9ºF in Escalante. New all-time maximum March temperature records were set at 80-90% of weather sites in Colorado and Utah, and at 70% of sites in Wyoming. At many locations in Colorado and Utah, new March temperature records exceeded April maximum temperature records. Maximum March 2026 temperatures along the Front Range of Colorado reached the 90s with Burlington, CO recording 99ºF on March 26. Extremely high March temperatures were present across the majority of the West, and record statewide March temperatures were set in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Oklahoma, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. A new record March temperature was also set for the contiguous U.S.