Click the link to read the discussion on the Climate Prediction Center website:

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than a 79% chance).

Compared to last month, El Niño strengthened as sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded 4.0°C, extending farther westward across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Niño indices increased, reaching +2.5°C in Niño-3.4, +3.6°C in Niño-3, and +4.4°C in Niño-1+2. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°–100°W) remained significantly above average, associated with a deeper-than-average thermocline and anomalies exceeding +10.0°C at depth in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies extended from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall remained enhanced from the central to the eastern Pacific, while suppressed conditions persisted over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were consistently negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the ongoing evolution of El Niño.

The CPC Official ENSO outlook, which synthesizes multiple models from North America and abroad, indicates El Niño will continue to strengthen before beginning to weaken in early 2027. Chances for a historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value) are now ~60% for the October–December and November–January periods, remaining at better than even odds. Even with a very strong El Niño, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are higher, though not guaranteed (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January–March 2027 (remaining greater than a 79% chance).

Click on a thumbnail graphc to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

This week’s drought picture featured a mixed bag of conditions with worsening drought in the lower Mississippi valley and the lower Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, prolific rainfall continued in parts of the Southwest, South, and Southeast, leading to significant drought improvement across southern and western Texas and parts of the Southern Appalachian region. Additional drought improvement was found over the western Great Lakes in Minnesota and Wisconsin and parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Despite little rainfall in the Four Corners region of the Southwest, additional improvements were made as a result of substantial rainfalls over the last several weeks, leading to tremendous flooding in some places and rapidly-filling reservoirs…

High Plains

The High Plains States were the least active in terms of drought category changes this past week as little precipitation fell. With evaporation rates reduced this time of year, any worsening drought moves at a much slower pace. Only spotty drought improvements from rainfall occurred in Eastern South Dakota into Northeastern Nebraska, and Southwestern Kansas…

West

Despite an overall lack of substantial rainfall in the West this past week, continued drought improvements were made across many states from Southeast Montana southward to New Mexico and westward to Southern California and Nevada. Near-record soil wetness has resulted from the recent weeks of tremendous El Niño-influenced rainfall. It hasn’t been all good news in the West, as some drought degradation was introduced in northern Idaho and northwestern Montana this past week.

Many reservoirs have been filling up at an exceptionally rapid pace in the Desert Southwest, making up for months of declining levels over just the last few weeks. The Navajo reservoir in Northwestern New Mexico has added over 600,000 acre-feet of water since mid-September from recent rain and flooding events, and now sits at 110% of average storage for this time of year. Lake Powell behind the Glen Canyon dam has also benefited tremendously with the addition of almost 1.4 million acre-feet of water since mid-September. However, Lake Powell is still only at 42% of average storage for this time of year…

South

The drought pattern continued to be quite polarized across the Southern States, with exceptional drought worsening across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Southeastern Oklahoma, and Eastern Texas. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, 20 to 30 inches of rainfall is required over the span of 3 months to end the exceptional drought in these states. In stark contrast, substantial rains fell in Southern and Western Texas resulting in one and two categorical reductions in drought intensity, especially over South Texas where up to 9 inches of rain fell. Significant drought relief occurred across much of Western and Central Tennessee where several inches of rain fell in some places this past week helping to reduce the extreme drought to some extent…

Looking Ahead

Over the next week, a potential Nor’easter could bring substantial rainfall to interior portions of Pennsylvania, New York, and Southern New England. A series of potent weather systems should impact the West Coast from Central California up to Washington, with up to 5 inches or more of precipitation being predicted by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center through next Tuesday. Another axis of substantial rainfall is predicted from Eastern Texas into Oklahoma and Southern Kansas. The Northern Plains and the Southeast are predicted to stay mostly dry. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center depicts well above normal temperatures across much of the Plains States, with below normal temperatures in the Southeast. Precipitation is projected to be above average in the Southwestern U.S. and below average over the eastern half of the country.

Click the link to read the article on the Grist website:

November 9, 2026

A monster is growing in the Pacific — not the kraken, but something far scarier and deadlier. El Niño is a natural phenomenon in which a band of warm water forms every three to five years off the coast of South America. It raises ocean water temperatures by just a few extra degrees for typically nine to 12 months and ends up injecting an extraordinary amount of energy into the sky. It’s already the strongest El Niño on record, and it might not even peak for about another month or two.

“Those are actually really big changes for the ocean,” Art Miller, a climate scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, told Grist in September. “The ocean has a lot of heat content — 1,000 times more ability to hold heat than the atmosphere — so slight changes in the ocean surface temperatures can actually do a lot for the atmosphere.”

While scientists are still trying to figure out how climate change might be influencing El Niño, some research suggests that rising temperatures have led to stronger El Niño events. At the very least, we can use this event’s temporary warming to imagine what the climate will look like by default in two decades, as planetary temperatures continue to rise.

The effects of the current El Niño will be global, and they will be severe. Scientists have estimated that the additional heat alone could kill around 450,000 people worldwide. Drought is gripping some places, like the Amazon rainforest, while extreme rainfall hits others, like the Greater Horn of Africa. And the polar vortex — another phenomenon that periodically blasts the eastern and central United States with frigid air — interacts with El Niño in ways that can scramble weather even further. El Niño, then, won’t just fire heat into the atmosphere — it will fundamentally shift weather patterns the world over.

The atmospheric changes are so complex that different parts of the U.S. will endure vastly different impacts from El Niño. (There’s also a lot of uncertainty here: Models can predict general changes across regions, but no one can tell you what the weather will be in a given spot a month from now.) California, for example, typically sees increased rainfall and flooding. The Midwest might be relatively better off with a milder, drier winter, whereas the Southeast could get colder and wetter.

Which is all to say: Things are going to get very weird, and often very dangerous, across the U.S. To break it all down by region, Grist spoke to state climatologists and meteorologists. Here’s what they expect in the months ahead.

This winter’s outlook, region by region

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for December through February predicts a warm North and a wet South. Darker shading means higher confidence in the forecast…

Alaska

Alaska is America’s largest state and home to all of its Arctic territory. That makes it uniquely vulnerable to the effects of climate change, which is warming the region several times faster than the rest of the planet. El Niño years add a blast of heat on top of that warming, intensifying local effects in the short term.

A strong El Niño, like the current one, tends to strengthen the Aleutian Low, a broad area of low pressure over the North Pacific that helps shape Alaska’s winter weather. But El Niño is only one of many factors influencing the Low’s strength and location. Depending on how these conditions line up in any given year, the state could experience vastly different outcomes. That makes the effects of El Niño especially difficult to predict in Alaska, said Martin Stuefer, the state climatologist and director of the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

“We have to be on the lookout for more intense events, that’s for sure,” Stuefer said. “But we should be cautious about making conclusions based on what we know now.”

Evidence from previous El Niño events indicates that populated regions along the Gulf of Alaska and the state’s southeast might experience warmer winter temperatures, and precipitation may fall as rain instead of snow, Stuefer said. According to the National Weather Service, most strong El Niño years have resulted in below-average snowfall in Alaska.

Anything that intensifies warming in the state isn’t welcome news. Climate change is already melting away sea ice, leaving Alaska’s vast shorelines exposed to erosion during storms. It’s also thawing permafrost — the frozen ground found across much of Alaska — to collapse. Meanwhile, warmer waters are setting the stage for harmful algae blooms and changing the distribution of fish species that Native Alaskans have depended on for generations. A strong El Niño in the coming months could add to these pressures.

— Sachi Mulkey

Hawaiʻi and the Pacific Islands

Hawaiʻi and the Pacific have had a tough year already, and El Niño threatens to cause even more disruption. Low-pressure storms known as Kona lows and hurricanes have hit Hawaiʻi throughout the summer and fall, leading to severe flooding and power outages. Elsewhere in the region, super-typhoons like Sinlaku made landfall, causing 17 deaths in the western Pacific.

In the coming months, Pacific islands are broadly expected to face drier conditions and stronger storms. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, for example, Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are facing an above-normal typhoon season, which will build on an already destructive summer and fall period. The threat is in addition to the rising probability of storms, fueled by warming ocean waters due to climate change.

“It only takes one storm to come over the island to cause crazy rainfall and devastation,” said Ryan Longman, who is the consortium program director at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa for the Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center.

The Pacific islands are also bracing for a drier winter and spring. In Hawaiʻi, a strong El Niño can lead to a drier wet season, which typically lasts from October to March. That could mean less water available for residential, agricultural, and commercial uses and elevated wildfire risk.

The landscape is currently thick with grass and other vegetation from a historically wet summer. As the climate shifts toward drier conditions, those fuels on the landscape will dry up, increasing the chances of wildfires. Longman suggested that residents clear dry grasses and other fuels from their properties to reduce their risk.

For some Pacific islands, historic patterns suggest that the worst drought effects come the year following El Niño’s onset, meaning the most severe impacts could arrive in early to mid-2027.

— Joseph Lee

Midwest

The Midwest may catch a break when El Niño peaks this winter.

The cyclical climate pattern is mostly associated with milder, drier winters in the Midwest. El Niño shifts the polar jet stream — the band of fast-moving Arctic air high in the atmosphere — farther north, making it less likely that cold winds will dip into the region, resulting in warmer temperatures.

That doesn’t rule out snow and winter storms, though. It only means that average temperatures between December and February tend to be somewhat warmer. During recent strong El Niño events, winter temperatures ranged from 3 degrees Fahrenheit to more than 8 degrees F warmer than the 20th-century average, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The Midwest has already experienced a warmer fall this year, said Daria Kluver, a professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Central Michigan University. Average September temperatures across the region were the highest in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 132-year record. Illinois and Missouri had their warmest September on record; Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, and Michigan also saw above-average temperatures.

That warmth will continue into the winter. And reduced ice cover on the Great Lakes could contribute to the warmer temperatures, Kluver said. Without as much ice, warmth stored in the lakes over the summer is likely to slowly dissipate into the surrounding air. The changes in ice cover could impact Great Lakes economies, recreation, and the ecosystems that depend on it.

Fall has been dry so far, but winter might not be. Kluver said precipitation levels will depend on other dynamics like Arctic sea-ice levels and Atlantic Ocean currents. But the El Niño typically tilts the odds toward less snowfall and more rain or ice.

“Whether you find that good or bad maybe depends on what you do for winter recreation,” Kluver said.

El Niño could also mean a reprieve from the Midwest’s record-setting tornadoes next year, according to Chris Callahan, a climate scientist and assistant professor at Indiana University Bloomington.

“We are likely to have a relatively quiet tornado season in the spring, because those tornadoes are shifted south into [states] like Arkansas, Georgia, and so they might have a more active tornado season,” Callahan said.

— Vivian La and Juanpablo Ramirez-Franco

Northeast

The Northeast has so far avoided El Niño’s impacts — but that’s about to change.

Brad Pugh, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s extended prediction division, said the unusually strong El Niño this year gives the Northeast more than a 50 percent chance of a milder-than-normal winter. There could also be more precipitation, he added, though those odds will vary within the region.

While areas farther east are generally more likely to be wet, he said, “it’s hard to tell how much is going to be rain or snow.”

Government outlooks don’t include snow totals because snow is difficult to predict far ahead. But the winter outlook from AccuWeather, a private forecasting company, projects fewer flakes for the Northeast. That, however, doesn’t mean the region won’t see snow, Pugh added.

“The forecast leaning on the wetter side does raise the prospects that there could be some high-impact winter storms,” he said, pointing to the I-95 corridor between New York and Boston as one area that could be hit. He suggested keeping an eye on the NWS’ eight- to 14-day forecasts to get a more accurate and timely sense of what weather may be on the way.

Even water that falls as rain could be concerning, said Auroop Ganguly, a hydrologist and co-director of Northeastern University’s Global Resilience Institute. “If I were an urban planner, I’d plan more for the possibility of flooding in urban areas,” he said. A mix of rain, snow, and ice on the roads could also make driving dangerous. “I’d prepare for somewhat more hazardous conditions on the roads.”

Still, many in the region may welcome El Niño’s arrival, especially after last winter, which was the coldest in a decade. Milder temperatures this year could, for example, lower heating needs at a time when heating oil and electricity prices are spiking.

As for the prospect of a warmer winter in the Northeast, said Ganguly, “Most people would say, ‘I’ll take it.’”

— Tik Root

Northern Great Plains

There is less certainty about the total El Niño impacts for the Northern Great Plains compared to the rest of the country. Nebraska, Montana, and the Dakotas are expecting a warmer-than-average winter, but rain and snowfall forecasts across these states are less conclusive.

In Nebraska, some of those effects may already be emerging. Earlier this fall, the eastern part of the state experienced milder temperatures and heavy rain, leading to flash flooding. Wetter-than-normal conditions are likely to continue in eastern Nebraska through winter, increasing the risk of additional floods, said Eric Hunt, a University of Nebraska-Lincoln agriculture meteorology and climate resilience extension educator. The state could still see intense winter storms, and western Nebraska could experience a wetter winter, though those forecasts are less certain.

Farther north in the Dakotas, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecasted a 40 percent to 60 percent chance of higher average temperatures from December to February. For North Dakota, that still means average temperatures below freezing. Winter also tends to be dry in both states, and forecasts for precipitation are variable, according to both states’ climatologists.

In South Dakota, a snowy winter could alleviate drought, replenish surface water, and reduce fire risk in the Black Hills, said state climatologist Laura Edwards. A dry winter in the state could be a tipping point for drought conditions next spring.

In North Dakota, it’s not clear if any precipitation this winter would improve drought conditions, said Daryl Ritchison, North Dakota state climatologist and director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network. One winter storm could push seasonal totals above average for precipitation for the season, but if the winter remains dry and spring rains are slow to arrive, fire risk might increase.

Montana faces much of the same uncertainty. In the Northern Rockies, the odds favor a below-average snow year — but only slightly, said Kyle Bocinsky, the director of climate extension with the Montana Climate Office. Montana has experienced four strong El Niño events in the past 40 years; three saw below-normal precipitation and snowpack, but one saw above-normal snowpack. “It’s a small sample size,” Bocinsky said, which makes it hard to definitively say what the impacts will be. “It’s still a 50-50 chance,” he said.

Bocinsky said warmer temperatures could make for a rainy winter similar to last year, particularly at lower elevations. Like much of the Great Plains, eastern Montana is still in drought carried over from last year’s mild winter. Farmers and ranchers are hoping snow settles on the landscape this year, but it’s just too soon to tell, he said.

— Ellis Juhlin and Anila Yoganathan

Northwest

The Pacific Northwest typically sits in the center lane of a storm highway. Every winter, ocean storms travel across this familiar route, delivering a steady supply of the cool, drizzly weather that gives the region its gloomy charm. But El Niño is likely to reroute this storm track to the south, dumping rain onto sunny California instead. This often leaves the Northwest warmer, and sometimes drier, than usual.

That combination could be a double whammy for mountain snow, which is the main source of water for much of the Northwest, since snow can’t form if it’s too warm or too dry. “If we were to get both of those this year — both the warmer temperatures and less precipitation — that could spell trouble for our snowpack,” said Jacob Genuise, an engagement climatologist at the Washington State Climate Office.

Climate change is also slowly chipping away at snow levels. Since the mid-20th century, snow levels in Washington’s Cascades have been steadily decreasing in both El Niño and La Niña years alike. These factors could lead to less snow stored in the mountains for next spring and summer, driving up the risk of drought or wildfires, and leaving less water available for irrigation, drinking water, or hydropower.

On the coast, El Niño can also lead to more tidal flooding. As ocean and wind patterns shift across the Pacific, seawater can get pushed toward the West Coast, raising high tide levels by several inches. This extra tidal boost could also combine with sea level rise, storm surges, or winter king tides to drive up the flood risk in Washington’s and Oregon’s coastal communities. “It’s not a huge effect,” said Genuise. “But that can mean the difference between a property getting flooded or not during these El Niño years.”

— Jesse Nichols

Southwest

El Niño often delivers rain and snow to the Southwest and could bring a glimmer of hope to a region suffering historic drought. Jon Meyer, assistant state climatologist at the Utah Climate Center, expects the weather pattern to bring “favorable storm activity” to the desert Southwest, including Arizona and New Mexico, with effects bleeding into Nevada and parts of southern Utah and southern Colorado.

But northern Utah, which is home to most of the state’s population, “is right in the bull’s-eye of being very unpredictable,” he said. Colorado’s outlook is also mixed. El Niño tends to bring more precipitation in spring and fall, but it also typically creates drier conditions for the Northern Rockies, said Peter Goble, assistant state climatologist at the Colorado Climate Center.

“The strong El Niño, as interesting a story as it’s been,” he said, “doesn’t guarantee us anything.”

The region is in dire need of snowpack in the winter months ahead. Utah’s Great Salt Lake hovers just a few inches above eclipsing the record-low elevation it set in 2022, and its vast exposed lake bed is drying into a dust source impacting the health of the roughly 2.5 million residents living in cities near its shores. Meanwhile, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation’s largest reservoirs, saw a fraction of their normal inflows from the Colorado River and set their own record lows over the fall. Around 40 million people in the West depend on water supplies delivered by the Colorado River system.

The early autumn run-up to the super El Niño has already brought downpours, sending torrents through city streets and arroyos across the region. Arizona is already facing flash flooding and could now see tornadoes and other extreme weather, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather.

More moisture would boost desiccated reservoirs and reduce sleepless nights for farmers, but experts are already repeating an all-too-familiar warning: One good year won’t solve the region’s water woes. Western states saw record-breaking snow in 2023. Today, that moisture is gone, and both the Rio Grande and Colorado River basins look more stressed than ever. Climatologists say those extreme oscillations will become more common as climate change heats up the region.

— Austin Corona and Leia Larsen

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:

November 9, 2026

Key Takeaways:

• Warm October: The contiguous U.S. (CONUS) recorded its fourth-warmest October in the 132-year record.
• Record nighttime warmth: For the fourth consecutive month (July–October 2026), the CONUS average nighttime minimum temperature set a new monthly record (1895–2026).
• Southwest tied its fourth-wettest October: The Southwest climate region averaged 2.68 inches of precipitation, 233% of its average October total.
• Hurricane Isaias makes landfall: Isaias became the latest first hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin during the satellite era (since 1966), making landfall near Destin, Florida, as a Category 2 hurricane and bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall across the Southeast.
• Drought improvement: According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, CONUS drought coverage fell from 59% on September 29 to 44% on November 3, its lowest level since January 2026.

Other Highlights:

Temperature

The average temperature for the CONUS in October was 58.7°F, 4.6°F above the 20th-century average, ranking as the fourth-warmest October in the 132-year record. October marked the 21st consecutive month (February 2025–October 2026) with CONUS temperatures above the 20th-century average.

Above-average temperatures spanned the entire CONUS during October, with all 48 states recording average temperatures above their 20th-century baselines. Thirty states—extending from Oregon to North Carolina and Texas to Minnesota—experienced much-above-average October temperatures.

Nighttime minimum temperatures were especially notable, averaging 46.3°F, 4.9°F above the 20th-century average, and surpassing the previous October record, set in 1947, by 0.1°F. October marked the fourth consecutive month (July–October 2026) in which CONUS average nighttime minimum temperatures set a new monthly record.

Alaska’s average temperature was 30.4°F, 4.9°F above the 1925–2000 average, ranking in the warmest third of the 102-year record. While temperatures across southeastern Alaska and the Panhandle were near average, western portions of the state and the Aleutians experienced above- to much-above-average conditions.

Hawaiʻi’s average temperature was 69.0°F, 0.7°F above the 1991–2020 average, ranking in the warmest third of the 36-year record. While average daytime maximum temperatures were slightly below average, average nighttime minimum temperatures were 1.8°F above average, tying the record for the warmest October minimum temperature in the 36-year record.

Precipitation

Total precipitation averaged across the CONUS in October was 2.35 inches, 0.19 inch above the 20th-century average, ranking in the middle third of the 132-year record.

Much-above-average precipitation was widespread across southern California and much of the Southwest and Great Basin, extending into parts of the central and northern Rockies. Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada each ranked among their 10 wettest Octobers on record. Portions of the central and southern Plains also experienced above-average precipitation, while rainfall associated with Hurricane Isaias contributed to above-average totals across parts of the Southeast. In contrast, northern California and the Pacific Northwest received below-average precipitation, along with portions of the northern Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest and Northeast.

Alaska’s average precipitation was 5.06 inches in October, 0.67 inch above the 1925–2000 average, ranking in the wettest third of the 102-year record. Above-average precipitation occurred across portions of the Northwest, southern mainland and southeast Interior, while the Aleutians, western Alaska Peninsula and Panhandle received below-average precipitation.

Hawaiʻi received 8.65 inches of precipitation in October, 3.53 inches above the 1991–2020 average, ranking as the third-wettest October in the 36-year record. Heavy rainfall associated with the southern passage of Hurricane Nolo contributed to the above-average totals. With statewide precipitation above average for the ninth consecutive month, year-to-date precipitation through October reached 95.31 inches, 46.23 inches above the 1991–2020 average, marking the wettest January–October on record.

Drought

According to the November 3 U.S. Drought Monitor, about 44% of the CONUS was in drought, down about 15 percentage points from the end of September and the lowest CONUS drought coverage since January 27.

Drought persisted across much of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, parts of the central Rockies and northern Plains, the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, far Northeast and Puerto Rico. Drought expanded or increased in intensity across portions of the Lower and Middle Mississippi valleys and the Lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Drought conditions improved across much of the Southwest and southern Rockies, portions of the central and southern Plains and Southeast.

Monthly Outlook

Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the CONUS and Alaska during November, except for parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. The highest probabilities (exceeding 50%) are forecast across much of the northern tier. Above-average precipitation is favored across much of the West, Plains, South and Southeast, while below-average precipitation is favored across portions of the northern Rockies, Great Lakes and western Alaska. Visit the Climate Prediction Center’s Official 30-Day Forecasts for more details.

Drought is expected to persist across parts of the Northwest, northern Rockies and Plains, northern Great Lakes, the eastern Carolinas and far Northeast, while improvement is expected across parts of the Southwest and much of the southern Plains, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. Visit the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook for more details.

Significant wildland fire potential for November is above normal across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Visit the National Interagency Fire Center’s One-Month Wildland Fire Outlook for more details.

For more detailed climate information, check out our comprehensive October 2026 U.S. Climate Report scheduled for release on November 13, 2026. For additional information on the statistics provided here, visit the Climate at a Glance and National Maps webpages.

Click the link to read the summary on the Colorado Climate Center website (and to dive into the detail).

From the Pagosa Springs Sun website:

As of the afternoon of Wednesday, Nov. 4, the Natural Resources Conservation Service SNOTEL snow measurement site on the summit of Wolf Creek Pass indicated that the pass had a total 7.4 inches of snow water equivalent, up from 4 inches last Wednesday, Oct. 28. Wolf Creek Ski Area reported a total of 12 inches of snow in the latest storm, bringing the yearly snow total to 39 inches so far.

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

The very wet fall continued across the southwest quarter of the contiguous U.S. to end October. Based on the additional heavy precipitation (more than 1 inch) from October 27-November 2 and a positive shift in the long-term metrics since September, a broad 1-category improvement was made to the Southwest and Great Basin. Although short-term drought has ended, lingering long-term drought remains designated for parts of these areas. The remnants of Hurricane Vance from the East Pacific brought drought-improving precipitation to western and central Texas. At the start of November, heavy precipitation prompted improvements to the Great Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Drought coverage continued its late summer and fall decline across Florida. Drought expanded and intensified for parts of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. Alaska and Hawaii remain drought-free, while drought continues to improve across Puerto Rico…

High Plains

Widespread precipitation (0.5 to 2 inches, locally more) resulted in 1-category improvements to the western third Colorado along with parts of the Northern to Central Great Plains. Recent precipitation and the “convergence of evidence” supported discontinuing the D3 in most of the Nebraska Panhandle…

West

A low pressure system at an unusually low latitude for this time of year resulted in anomalously wet conditions across southern California and the Desert Southwest over Halloween weekend. During the past 60 days, precipitation has averaged well above normal (200 to 400%, or more) across southern California, southern Nevada, and most of Arizona and Utah. This fall wetness is related in part to the El Nino driven active tropical cyclone season in the East Pacific. Precipitation amounts of more than one inch prompted a 1-category improvement from Arizona north to Nevada, Utah and southeastern Idaho. Please note that short-term drought has ended for the Southwest and Great Basin. Despite multiple short-term metrics on the wet side, long-term drought of varying intensity persists across parts of these areas. Precipitation (0.5 to 1 inch, locally more) this past week led to small improvements for parts of Montana. Drought coverage and intensity remained steady for the Pacific Northwest and much of California…

South

The remnants of Hurricane Vance in the East Pacific brought heavy rainfall to western and central Texas. A 1-category improvement was made roughly to areas that received more than 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall. Also, SPIs at various time scales were considered. The unusually wet fall continued in New Mexico where a broad 1-category improvement was necessary. Additional improvements may be needed in subsequent weeks to be more consistent with long-term metrics. Please note that short-term drought has ended for New Mexico. Near or more than one inch of precipitation supported improvements across the western third of Oklahoma. Since this precipitation occurred on November 2nd, additional improvements may be made to a greater coverage of Oklahoma next week once a full assessment of the latest metrics is completed. The D2, D3, and D4 coverage across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee is generally consistent with SPEIs at various time scales and soil moisture indicators. Impact reports from Mississippi include poor to very poor pastures along with dry farm ponds. The lack of precipitation the past two months (60-day deficits of more than 4 inches) coupled with above-normal temperatures (+6 to 10 degrees F since early September) has led to rapid intensifying drought across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Heavy precipitation (1.5 to 2 inches, locally more) resulted in a 1-category improvement to southwestern Tennessee and northern Mississippi, while a 1-category degradation was warranted for northeastern Tennessee…

Looking Ahead

A much drier multi-day period (Nov 5-9) and more typical for fall is forecast for a majority of the lower 48 states. A cold front will trigger a period of wet weather along the East Coast with the heaviest amounts (more than one inch) from the coastal Mid-Atlantic north to southeastern New England. Along the tail end of this front, heavy precipitation may occur across the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The only other area forecast to receive significant precipitation is the coastal Pacific Northwest.

By mid-November, there is an increasing chance that an atmospheric river affects the West Coast. The NWS 6-10 day outlook (valid Nov 10-14) depicts more than a 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation for much of California and the Pacific Northwest. The largest probabilities (> 70%) are forecast across northern California and southwestern Oregon. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across the Great Basin, Southwest, Rio Grande Valley, and Florida. Below-normal precipitation is more likely across the Northern to Central Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The enhanced Pacific flow strongly favors above-normal temperatures for nearly all of the contiguous U.S. which is typical for a strong El Nino during the fall.

Just for grins here’s a slideshow of early November US Drought Monitor maps for the past few years.

Below is the Snow Water Equivalent in South Platte graph from the NRCS for November 2, 2026. Snowpack is 28% of the median (down 16% one week, wild swings this time of the accumulation season) and 2% of the median peak (down 2% one week). There are 175 days until the median peak. I’ve added the lines for 2026, 2018, 2012, and 2002 since the statewide drought is still very pronounced.

Below is the Precipitation Accumulation in South Platte graph from the NRCS for November 2, 2026. This morning precipitation, at the SNOTEL stations, is at 68% of the median (down 11% one week), and 6% of the water year median (up 1% one week), There are 333 days left in the water year. I’ve added the lines for 2026, 2018, 2012, and 2002 since the statewide drought is still very pronounced.

There is a chance for snow showers today, and snow showers are likely Wednesday, in the central mountains. Rain/snow is likely today, with a chance for rain/snow Wednesday, in the northern mountains. Showers are likely today, with a chance for showers Wednesday, down here about 13 miles from South Table Mountain, where Ku Klux Klansmen burned crosses to celebrate Denver Mayor Ben Stapleton surviving a recall election in August 1924. From Wikipedia:

As chronicled by Robert Alan Goldberg in his book Hooded Empire : The Ku Klux Klan in Colorado, Stapleton was the Klan candidate for mayor of Denver in 1923 and won the election with Klan support. When Stapleton declared his candidacy for mayor in March 1923, he was Klan member number 1,128 and a close friend of the Colorado Klan Grand Dragon, John Galen Locke. Rumors of Stapleton’s Klan membership circulated during the mayoral campaign. Stapleton responded by denying that he was a Klan member and condemning the Klan, “to appease his Jewish and Catholic supporters.” Stapleton declared, “True Americanism needs no mask or disguise. Any attempt to stir up racial prejudices or religious intolerance is contrary to our constitution and is therefore un-American.” The voters believed Stapleton’s denial and he was elected, defeating an unpopular incumbent, Dewey Bailey. Stapleton then appointed fellow Klansmen to multiple positions in Denver government, though he initially resisted Klan pressure to appoint a Klansman as chief of police.

An anti-Stapleton backlash developed due to the Klan’s infiltration of Denver government. The anti-Stapleton coalition began the process of petitioning for a recall election. Stapleton knew that to survive the recall he would need Klan support. He capitulated to the Klan demand that he appoint a Klansman as police chief, with the result that the police department became in effect a Klan organization. This galvanized the anti-Stapleton forces and they succeeded in forcing a recall election of Stapleton in August 1924.

According to Goldberg’s description of the recall election, “[t]he Klan dominated the Stapleton campaign, contributing more than $15,000 and scores of election workers.” “On July 14, 1924, Mayor Stapleton addressed a Klan gathering on South Table Mountain and reaffirmed his commitment: ‘I have little to say, except that I will work with the Klan and for the Klan in the coming election, heart and soul. And if I am reelected, I shall give the Klan the kind of administration it wants.'” The anti-Stapleton coalition had run a poor candidate against Stapleton in the recall election (Dewey Bailey, the incumbent mayor Stapleton defeated in 1923), and Stapleton won the recall election by a landslide. On the night of the election, Denver Klansmen burned crosses on South Table Mountain to signify their victory.

Here’s a look at the Colorado 7-Day precipitation map through October 30, 2026 from the High Plains Regional Climate Center. Precipitation in the South Platte Basin along the Continental Divide of the Americas ranged from 0.00” to 1.50″.

Here’s the Colorado 7-Day percent of normal precipitation map through October 30, 2026 from the High Plains Regional Climate Center. Precipitation in the South Platte River Basin along the Continental Divide of the Americas ranged from 0% to 800% of normal.

Here’s the most recent 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature (F) for Colorado through October 30, 2026 from the High Plains Regional Climate Center.

Below is the 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the week of November 2, 2026. Precipitation is anticipated for the mountains of the South Platte River Basin and may total up to 0.25″

Below are the 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, issued November 1, 2026, for temperature and precipitation, for the week starting November 9, 2026. The CPC expects above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation for the mountains of the South Platte River Basin.

Below is the Colorado Drought Monitor map from October 27, 2026. There were one category improvements in Weld, Adams, Denver, Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert, Logan, and Sedgwick counties in the South Platte River Basin. There were one category degradations in Morgan, Weld, Larimer, Boulder, Adams, Park, and Logan counties. There were two and 3 category degradations in Morgan County. Drought and abnormal dryness covers 65.13% of Colorado. The South Platte Basin is experiencing Abnormally Dry, Moderate, Severe, Extreme, and Exceptional drought conditions.

Below is the Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending October 27, 2026.

Here’s the US Drought Monitor Map from last week along with the one week U.S. change map.

Finally, Russ Schumacher Colorado’s State Climatologist, posted about the the rains and floods in southwest Colorado last week and there was this tidbit about El Niño:

Where does El Niño fit in to this story, and what’s coming next?

As Peter [Goble] outlined in this post, the fall season is when we see some of the most robust connections between El Niño and precipitation in Colorado, with falls tending to be wetter than average in southern Colorado during El Niño. It is quite remarkable how closely this fall’s precipitation patterns thus far match the historical correlations: on the figure below, look at how similar the green shading in the map on the left is to the areas that have seen above-average precipitation this fall!