Below is the Precipitation Accumulation in South Platte graph from the NRCS for July 13, 2026. Precipitation is at 72% of the median (no change one week), and 59% of the water year median (up 1% one week), this morning. There are 79 days left in the water year.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms today and Wednesday, a chance for thunderstorms Thursday, a chance for thunderstorms Friday, with a chance for showers/thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday in the central mountains. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Thursday, a chance for thunderstorms Friday, with a chance for showers/thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday in the northern mountains. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, down here, about 101 miles from Leadville, where Doc Holliday fought the last gun battle of his life. From Old Historical Pictures Facebook page:

By the summer of 1884, Doc Holliday had long since become one of the most recognizable—and feared—figures of the American West. His days as a dentist were far behind him, replaced by years of gambling, gunfights, and a constant battle against tuberculosis. The illness had steadily weakened his body, but it had done little to dull his instincts. On August 19, 1884, in the booming mining town of Leadville, Colorado, Holliday found himself involved in what would become the last gunfight of his turbulent life. The confrontation began over a surprisingly small matter: a five-dollar debt. Billy Allen, a local bartender who had also served as a policeman, repeatedly demanded payment from Holliday. Under ordinary circumstances, the disagreement might have ended with harsh words. But the mining camps of the Old West were anything but ordinary, and Allen’s demands soon escalated into public threats. According to witnesses, Allen openly declared that he intended to settle the dispute by force if necessary…Holliday entered Mannie Hyman’s Saloon and quietly took a position where he could watch the entrance. Beneath his coat he concealed a revolver, waiting for whatever might come…When Billy Allen finally walked through the doorway, his hand was inside his pocket. Holliday believed Allen was reaching for a weapon. Acting on that belief, he drew his revolver and fired before Allen could make another move. The first shot missed its target, but the second bullet struck Allen in the upper arm. The wound severed an artery, causing heavy bleeding and sending Allen crashing to the floor…Although Allen survived his injuries, Holliday’s freedom immediately came into question. He was arrested and charged with attempted murder, setting the stage for another courtroom battle in a life already filled with violence and controversy. The trial concluded in March 1885. Witnesses testified that Allen had repeatedly threatened Holliday’s life in the days leading up to the shooting. The jury accepted that Holliday had acted out of a genuine fear for his own safety, and he was acquitted. It was his final legal victory…By then, however, tuberculosis had gained the upper hand. Leadville’s high elevation only worsened his condition, forcing him to seek relief in the lower elevations of Glenwood Springs, Colorado. Hoping the famous sulfur hot springs might ease his suffering, Holliday spent his remaining months there as his strength steadily faded.

Here’s a look at the 7-Day Colorado precipitation map through July 12, 2026 from the High Plains Regional Climate Center. Precipitation in the South Platte Basin along the Continental Divide of the Americas ranged from 0.00” to 0.40”.

Here’s the 7-Day percent of normal precipitation map through July 5, 2026 from the High Plains Regional Climate Center. Precipitation in the South Platte River Basin along the Continental Divide of the Americas ranged from 0% to 70% of normal.

Below is the 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for July 13, 2026. Precipitation is anticipated for the mountains of the South Platte River Basin and may total up to 0.50″.

Below are the 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, issued July 12, 2026, for temperature and precipitation, for the week starting July 20, 2026. The CPC expects above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the mountains of the South Platte River Basin.

Below is the Colorado Drought Monitor map from June 7, 2026. There was a one class degradations in Park, Jefferson, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Arapahoe, Larimer, and Weld counties, in the South Platte River Basin. There were one class improvements in Arapahoe, Elbert, Weld, Morgan, Logan, and Sedgwick counties. Drought and abnormal dryness covers 98.32% of Colorado. The South Platte Basin is experiencing Abnormally Dry, Moderate, Severe, Extreme, and Exceptional drought conditions.

Below is the Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending July 7, 2026.

Here’s the US Drought Monitor Map from last week along with the one week U.S. change map.

Finally, NOAA published their Assessing the U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in June 2026 on July 9, 2026. From the analysis:

Key Takeaways:

• Widespread June Warmth: The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) in June ranked in the warmest third of the 132-year record, with much of the West, Southwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast observing above-average temperatures.
• Hot and Dry Year-to-Date: The West and Southwest climate regions experienced their warmest January–June period on record and received less than 70 percent of their average year-to-date precipitation.
• Midwest Severe Weather: According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, there were 374 preliminary tornado reports during June, with historic activity across the Midwest. Illinois (91 reports), Indiana (69 reports) and Missouri (32 reports) each set new June records.
• Drought Footprint: Drought coverage across the CONUS fell below 50% in June, though drought persisted across much of the interior West and developed in Puerto Rico.
• Hawai’i Precipitation: Following its wettest June since 1997, Hawai’i’s year-to-date precipitation reached a record 54.6 inches—more than two feet above normal.

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:

July 9, 2026

Key Takeaways:

• Widespread June Warmth: The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) in June ranked in the warmest third of the 132-year record, with much of the West, Southwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast observing above-average temperatures.
• Hot and Dry Year-to-Date: The West and Southwest climate regions experienced their warmest January–June period on record and received less than 70 percent of their average year-to-date precipitation.
• Midwest Severe Weather: According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, there were 374 preliminary tornado reports during June, with historic activity across the Midwest. Illinois (91 reports), Indiana (69 reports) and Missouri (32 reports) each set new June records.
• Drought Footprint: Drought coverage across the CONUS fell below 50% in June, though drought persisted across much of the interior West and developed in Puerto Rico.
• Hawai’i Precipitation: Following its wettest June since 1997, Hawai’i’s year-to-date precipitation reached a record 54.6 inches—more than two feet above normal.

Other Highlights:

Temperature

The average temperature for the CONUS in June was 70.6°F, 2.2°F above the 20th-century average. Above- to much-above-average temperatures were observed across much of the West, Southwest, southern Plains, Florida, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Parts of the northern Rockies and Plains experienced below-average temperatures, while portions of the Midwest and Southeast were near average.

The Southwest climate region tied for its fifth-warmest June on record, averaging 4.9°F above the 20th-century average. Nine states ranked among their 10-warmest Junes on record, including Rhode Island and New Mexico, which each recorded their third-warmest June. Rhode Island also recorded its warmest June average maximum temperature on record, with daytime highs averaging 80.7°F—the first June since 1943 with an average high above 80°F.

Average daytime temperatures were near or below average across much of the South and Gulf Coast, while overnight temperatures were above average. Texas tied its warmest June average minimum temperature at 71.9°F, and neighboring New Mexico and Louisiana each recorded their second-warmest June minimum temperatures. In contrast, several states observed below-average daytime temperatures, including Alabama, where average maximum temperatures were 2.0°F below the 20th-century average.

Alaska’s average temperature was 50.5°F, 1.3°F above the 1925–2000 average, ranking in the warmest third of the 102-year record. Above-average temperatures were observed across southern portions of the Alaska mainland and the Panhandle. 
Hawai’i’s average temperature was 68.0°F, 0.3°F above the 1991–2020 average, ranking in the middle third of the 36-year record.

Precipitation

Total precipitation averaged across the CONUS in June was 3.23 inches, 0.31 inch above the 20th-century average, ranking in the wettest third of the 132-year record.

Above- to much-above-average precipitation was observed across portions of the far northern tier, central and southern Plains, South, Gulf Coast, Midwest and Great Lakes. Kansas, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky each ranked among their 10-wettest Junes on record. In contrast, below-average precipitation was observed across parts of the West, Northwest, central and southern Rockies, as well as much of the Florida Peninsula, Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region.

June precipitation patterns reinforced some of the spatial contrasts observed during the first half of the year, with above-average precipitation across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes and persistent below-average precipitation across much of the western CONUS and portions of the East Coast. Michigan recorded its wettest January–June on record, 6 inches above average, while Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming and Colorado received only about half to two-thirds of their average precipitation. Meanwhile, nine East Coast states from South Carolina to Massachusetts ranked among their eight-driest January–June periods on record.

Alaska recorded 1.78 inches of precipitation in June, 0.56 inch below the 1925–2000 average, ranking in the driest third of the 102-year record. Below-average precipitation was observed across portions of the western and southern mainland, the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians, and the Panhandle.

Hawai’i averaged 7.03 inches of precipitation in June, nearly double the 1991–2020 average of 3.60 inches—its second-wettest June on record. Year-to-date precipitation totaled 54.62 inches, 24.87 inches above average, marking the highest January–June total in the record (1991–present).

Drought

According to the June 30 U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 47.8% of the CONUS was in drought, a decrease of about 10.5% since the beginning of June. Drought persisted or intensified across much of the Northwest, Southwest, Great Basin and Rockies, as well as parts of the western Plains and the Mid-Atlantic from the Carolinas to the Northeast. Drought contracted or decreased in intensity across portions of the Plains, Midwest, lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, Southeast and far Northeast. Drought developed across portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Monthly Outlook

Above-average July temperatures are favored across the West, South and East, with the greatest likelihood over the Northwest, southern Plains and Southeast. Above-average July precipitation is favored in the Great Basin and parts of the Southwest and Northeast, while below-average precipitation is favored for parts of the Pacific Northwest and western Gulf Coast. Visit the Climate Prediction Center’s Official 30-Day Forecasts for more details. 

Drought is expected to persist or expand across much of the Northwest and Rockies, as well as portions of the Plains, Mid-Atlantic and Puerto Rico, while drought improvement or removal is expected for parts of the Southwest and Southeast. Visit the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook website for more details.

Significant wildland fire potential for July is above normal across much of the Northwest, Great Basin and southern Rockies, as well as parts of the southern Plains, Carolinas, Florida Peninsula and Puerto Rico. For additional information on wildland fire potential, visit the National Interagency Fire Center’s One-Month Wildland Fire Outlook.

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Shannon Mullane):

July 8, 2026

Coloradans can expect some rain this week before high temperatures return over the weekend. After that, experts have high hopes for monsoons to swing into Colorado from the southwest this month — though when exactly that will happen is still up for debate.

Large fires have ignited across the state, killing three firefighters, destroying homes, causing evacuations, and prompting air quality concerns around Colorado. National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking storms this week that dropped moisture on the Western Slope before raising the chance of rain for the Front Range and Eastern Plains. It’s not quite the start of the monsoon season, they said, but the moisture and humidity are offering a short reprieve from the hot, dry and windy conditions that contribute to rapid fire growth.

By this weekend, forecasters are warning of critical fire conditions once again, urging residents and visitors to carefully put out cigarettes, avoid dragging chains from their vehicles and keep a close eye on campfires (where they’re allowed).

“Just do the things to keep everybody safe,” Cameron Simcoe with the National Weather Service in Pueblo said. “Don’t start a wildfire.”

The benefits of this week’s showers in parts of Colorado are likely to dry up over the weekend as a summer heatwave brings triple-digit temperatures to parts of the state. After that, some relief may come this month in the form of monsoonal rains, a weather pattern that brings moisture from the southwest into Colorado. These rains typically arrive in mid-July.

Come fall and winter, Colorado may be able to expect more moisture from a strong El Niño swinging up from the Pacific Ocean. In mid-June, there was a 70% chance that the El Niño would become a “super El Niño,” a rare, strong pattern that impacts weather worldwide, according to climate experts.

“That there will be El Niño by this fall is pretty much guaranteed at this point,” state climatologist Russ Schumacher said. “The chances are better than not that it’ll be pretty strong.”

The Aspen Acres wildfire area is not expected to see critical fire conditions over the next few days, although that could change over the weekend into early next week, he said.

Looking ahead for the north and north-central region

In Boulder, Paul Schlatter, a meteorologist for the NWS Boulder office, does not expect critical fire conditions over the next few days for the north and north-central regions of Colorado, but that will change by Sunday.

“We’re hoping that nobody causes any sparks, especially on Sunday and beyond,” he said.

He is tracking chances for afternoon thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. By Sunday, temperatures could reach the upper 90s while humidity is expected to hover between 10% and 15%. Wind speeds are likely to be 20 to 25 mph, slightly below the threshold for critical fire conditions. East of Denver, temperatures could reach close to 100 degrees with gusts over 25 mph Monday and Tuesday, Schlatter said.

Coloradans should find ways to stay cool — whether that’s shade, open windows or air-conditioning indoors, he said. Don’t leave pets or children in vehicles, which will reach high temperatures quickly in the summer heatwave.

Even with this week’s storms, fuels are primed to burn because of the drought, he said.

About 93% of the state was experiencing drought as of June 30, and 9% was in exceptional drought, the worst of four categories used by the U.S. Drought Monitor. This time last year, about 44% of the state was in drought and no areas were in exceptional drought, according to the Drought Monitor.

“Just the way things have been going around here, it doesn’t take a lot of wind. Because the fuels are so dry, because of the drought, any fire will quickly get going on a day like that,” Schlatter said.

The monsoon is coming — eventually

Colorado’s dry conditions are driven, in large part, by a record-poor snowpack in Colorado’s mountains this winter.

Colorado’s reservoir storage was 64% of the norm as of Tuesday, according to federal data. Its waterways were already struggling by June — typically the driest part of the summer. As of July, some of the major rivers, like the Colorado River which runs through the Western Slope toward Utah, are very likely to have record low flows in total for this water year, which started Oct. 1 and ends Sept. 30, Schumacher said.

The Colorado River, and major tributaries like the Eagle and White rivers, are at or near their record lows for the water year up to this point. For the Gunnison River, only two years have been worse than this year so far out of 100 years of data, he said.

“It’s not surprising to see the flows come down,” Schumacher said. “But they’re coming down from very low peaks and low water levels.”

That makes it hard for prized native, sport and threatened fish to swim through warmer-than-usual waters or make it through shallow areas as they search for refuge in deeper pools. Less water in rivers and streams means less water entering reservoirs and adding moisture to fields that grow food for Colorado and beyond. Some fire officials have worried about strained supplies to fight fires.

With a wet monsoon season, Colorado’s rivers and streams might escape reaching new record lows, Schumacher said.

The forecasts are showing a likelihood that Colorado will receive monsoon rains, which don’t always come to the state in the summer. When they will arrive this year is less certain. They might start within a week or two, on the optimistic side, experts said.

These southwestern storm patterns come with the promise of more humidity in the air, more afternoon clouds and regular chances for rain. How much rain actually falls is unpredictable, but the higher humidity levels should help mitigate fire risk, Schumacher said.

“It’s the days when it’s warm, no humidity, no clouds — those are the days where it’s ripe for fires to grow quickly,” Schumacher said. “When there are chances for rain and it’s cloudy, that all helps. It may not solve the situation, but at least, it moves things in the right direction.”

More by Shannon Mullane

Click the link to read the summary on the Colorado Climate Center website:

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Dry weather enveloped much of the western U.S. this week, with a few exceptions, leading to persistence or worsening of ongoing drought in the Northwest and in the Rocky Mountains in Wyoming and Colorado. Farther east, in the Great Plains, a mix of degradations, improvements or no changes to drought status or lack thereof occurred, as scattered hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms moved across the Great Plains this week. Improvements were most prevalent in western Kansas and northeast Colorado, in parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico and along the Missouri and Big Sioux Rivers in Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. Degradations occurred in parts of central and north-central Colorado, in north-central and northwest South Dakota and in parts of central and east-central Nebraska. This week’s rainfall and continued assessment of the impact of previous rains led to widespread improvements in Arkansas, northern Louisiana and portions of Kentucky and Tennessee. Heavy rains, locally exceeding 5 inches, drenched areas in central and northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, leading to widespread one- and isolated two-category improvements in areas where drought or abnormal dryness was ongoing. Short-term abnormal dryness emerged in parts of the Michigan Upper Peninsula and northeast Minnesota, and in areas just southeast of St. Louis after a drier-than-normal last couple of months. Heavy rains, locally exceeding 4 inches, drenched parts of the northern mid-Atlantic region, the New York City area and southern New England, leading to localized improvements. Ongoing groundwater shortages and long-term precipitation deficits somewhat tempered this week’s categorical improvements, though the rain improved the short-term picture in many areas. Similarly, localized heavy rains, in some places exceeding 5 inches, fell in the Florida Peninsula, locally improving conditions amid remaining low lake levels and longer-term precipitation shortfalls. Short-term dryness began to emerge again across parts of northern Georgia, the Carolinas and parts of adjacent Virginia, leading to low soil moisture and streamflow in areas already experiencing long-term dryness or drought. Recent very dry weather continued in much of Puerto Rico, leading to expansion of moderate drought and the expansion of severe drought along parts of the island’s southern coast. Short-term moderate drought also developed this week in northwest Alaska, while several areas of abnormal dryness developed or expanded…

High Plains

Temperatures in the High Plains region were mostly near- or warmer-than-normal this week, with temperatures in eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota ranging from 3-6 degrees above normal. (Temperatures west of the Continental Divide were mostly below normal, though conditions in Wyoming and Colorado will be discussed in the West section.) Deficits in precipitation and soil moisture grew in parts of eastern Nebraska, where abnormal dryness and moderate drought expanded. North-central and western South Dakota also saw expansion of abnormal dryness and drought as short- and long-term precipitation deficits grew amid declining soil moisture and streamflow. Parts of central Colorado, especially near and east of Denver and Colorado Springs, saw conditions degrade this week as precipitation deficits grew. Similar conditions in north-central Colorado and south-central and northwest Wyoming, leading to degradations there. A small area of improvement occurred in north-central Wyoming, where vegetation conditions improved after recent precipitation. Scattered heavier rains fell in showers and thunderstorms that moved across parts of the Great Plains of northeast Colorado, the northern half of Kansas, parts of southwest and southeast Nebraska, and the Missouri and Big Sioux River corridors in South Dakota and northeast Nebraska. These rains locally improved drought or abnormally dry conditions…

West

Precipitation fell in portions of the Idaho-Montana border and across parts of southern and eastern Montana, and in a few areas of northwest Washington. Rainfall amounts around an inch fell in parts of New Mexico, though heavier amounts were mostly confined to east-central and southeast parts of the state, where conditions were re-assessed and local improvements occurred. Otherwise, much of the West region was dry this week. Conditions worsened in parts of central and southwest Colorado, where multiple large wildfires were occurring in areas of low soil moisture and large precipitation deficits. Degradations also occurred in parts of Oregon and adjacent far northern California and in north-central Washington. In these areas, streamflow levels remained low and precipitation deficits at both short- and long-term timescales grew. Water deliveries to properties near Bend, Oregon, were shut off this week as water supplies rain low. Widespread severe and extreme drought also continued in the eastern half of Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah and southern Idaho. Temperatures across the West region were mostly near- or cooler-than-normal, with temperature anomalies of 3-6 degrees below normal spreading across much of California, Nevada and parts of Arizona.

South

Near- or warmer-than-normal temperatures covered most of the South this week. Rainfall amounts varied, with some areas staying completely dry, though amounts over 2 inches fell in parts of southern Arkansas, northern and southern Louisiana, central and western Tennessee, northeast Texas and a few parts of the Texas Panhandle and western Texas. Deficits in soil moisture and precipitation lessened in parts of far western Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle and other areas of western Texas, leading to some improvements in ongoing drought. Likewise, long-term drought conditions were improved in portions of central Tennessee, aided by rains this week. A small area of severe drought developed in north-central Tennessee, where precipitation deficits grew and soils dried. Recent rainfall also improved soil moisture, streamflow and lessened precipitation shortages across much of northern and southeast Louisiana and central and southern Arkansas, leading to widespread improvements to drought or abnormal dryness. Isolated improvements also occurred in northwest Mississippi, though conditions across Mississippi were mostly stable as far as drought or dryness…

Looking Ahead

Through the evening of Monday, July 13, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center’s precipitation forecast shows mostly dry weather west of the Continental Divide, with rain amounts over 0.5 inches in southeast Arizona and in some areas near the southern New Mexico-Arizona state line. Mostly dry weather is also likely in the northern and southern Great Plains, though parts of the central Great Plains, especially in the southern half of Nebraska and northern half of Kansas, may receive rain amounts locally over an inch or higher. Rainfall amounts near or over an inch are expected in parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas, plus portions of Missouri. Heavier rain amounts ranging from 1.5-3 inches are forecast from southern Illinois eastward through southern Indiana, Kentucky, eastern Tennessee and parts of West Virginia. Isolated rainfall totals at or above 0.75 inches are possible from Iowa eastward through the lower Great Lakes, though most areas should stay drier. Primarily dry weather is forecast in New England, especially in the southern half of the region.

For July 14-18, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast favors drier-than-normal weather across the Great Lakes and central and northern Great Plains. Drier weather is also favored in far southern Florida. Wetter-than-normal weather is favored mostly across the Gulf Coast states and Carolinas, and in parts of the Desert Southwest, especially in southern Arizona. Hotter-than-normal weather is very likely across the northern Great Plains and West, and in the Florida Peninsula. Warmer-than-normal weather is also favored, though at lesser confidence, across most of the rest of the contiguous U.S., with a few exceptions. The forecast favors near-normal temperatures in southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico and in the eastern Great Lakes and most of the Northeast. Northern Maine is slightly favored to see cooler-than-normal temperatures.

The forecast in most of Alaska favors cooler-than-normal temperatures, except for the far northeast portion of the state and in the central and western Aleutian Islands, where temperatures near- and above-normal are favored, respectively. Above-normal precipitation is favored across most of Alaska, aside from a small part of northeast Alaska and the central Aleutian Islands.

Just for grins, here’s a slideshow of early July US Drought Monitor maps for the past few years.

July 3, 2026

For the Interior Rockies, June marks peak wildfire season. This year, the risk of large wildfires is elevated due to record low snowpack and drought. For Colorado and Utah, wildfire activity was relatively quiet through the first half of June. So what led up to the explosion of activity in the last week of June?

THE DELAYED SETUP

Despite record low snowpack, some late season storms in May helped delay meltout and keep fuels a bit more moist than they would have been otherwise. Although precipitation was still below average, and drought conditions persisted, moisture in the air into early June limited the onset of wildfires.

July 3, 2026

For the Interior Rockies, June marks peak wildfire season. This year, the risk of large wildfires is elevated due to record low snowpack and drought. For Colorado and Utah, wildfire activity was relatively quiet through the first half of June. So what led up to the explosion of activity in the last week of June?

THE DELAYED SETUP

Despite record low snowpack, some late season storms in May helped delay meltout and keep fuels a bit more moist than they would have been otherwise. Although precipitation was still below average, and drought conditions persisted, moisture in the air into early June limited the onset of wildfires.

THE SWITCH TO DRY

Like flipping a switch, dry air took over the region. The graphic below shows EDDI, a drought index that estimates the dryness of the atmosphere due to a combination of temperature, solar radiation, wind, and humidity. Higher values (denoted in the map with oranges and reds) shows where the atmosphere is much drier than normal as of the end of June. The change map on the right shows the drying trend over the last 30 days. This rapid trend dried out the vegetation, on top of the existing drought conditions, setting the stage for enhanced wildfire activity.

All the ingredients for wildfires are present – hot temperatures, dry air, and windy conditions on top of a drought landscape. Once an ignition occurs, either from human activities or lightning, the wildfires start. But what is needed for large and uncontrollable wildfires?

A CLOSER LOOK AT WILDFIRE METRICS

One of the surprising contributors to wildfire activity begins months in advance, where precipitation provides the necessary growth for vegetation that ultimately dries out and becomes fuel for a fire. Prior to the onset of the snowpack season, The Four Corners region received much above average precipitation in October thanks to two tropical systems coming from the Pacific Ocean. Fast forward to spring, drought conditions have dried out that vegetative growth, adding fuel for fires. The graphic below shows 3 different wildfire indices. The first index is the Energy Release Component (ERC), which is a measure of the energy and heat of a wildfire. The second index is the Burning Index, which measures flame length and the difficulty of containing a fire. The third index is 100-hr fuel moisture, which measures the moisture content in dead vegetation. By June 27, all three indices indicated very high or extreme fire danger. The Burning Index was record high for many parts of the Four Corners area.

THE STAGE IS SET

With all the ingredients in place, the last week of June brought a sudden surge of wildfires to Colorado and Utah, with 11 wildfires starting between June 26th and June 29th. Wildfires have now burned more than 400,000 acres in Colorado and Utah. Unfortunately, extreme heat and dry conditions are expected into the middle of July, bringing little relief to the current wildfire situation.

Below is the Precipitation Accumulation in South Platte graph from the NRCS for July 6, 2026. Precipitation is at 72% of the median (down 1% one week), and 58% of the water year median (no change one week), this morning. There are 86 days left in the water year.

There is a slight chance for showers today, showers are likely Tuesday, with a chance for thunderstorms Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, in the central mountains. There is a slight chance for showers today, showers are likely Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with a chance for thunderstorms Friday, in the northern mountains. There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, down here about 181 miles from Julesburg where the Battle of Julesburg took place on January 7, 1865. From Wikipedia:

The Battle of Julesburg took place on January 7, 1865, near Julesburg, Colorado between 1,000 Cheyenne, Arapaho, and Lakota Indians and about 60 soldiers of the U.S. army and 40 to 50 civilians. The Indians defeated the soldiers…The Julesburg Battle is unusual in that the main source of information about the battle comes from the Indian side, mostly from George Bent…a Cheyenne warrior who participated in the battle.

Here’s a look at the 7-Day Colorado precipitation map through July 5, 2026 from the High Plains Regional Climate Center. Precipitation in the South Platte Basin along the Continental Divide of the Americas ranged from 0.00” to 0.30”.

Here’s the 7-Day percent of normal precipitation map through July 5, 2026 from the High Plains Regional Climate Center. Precipitation in the South Platte River Basin along the Continental Divide of the Americas ranged pretty much 0% of normal.

Note: the 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast by NOAA is not rendering for me this morning.

Below are the 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, issued July 5, 2026, for temperature and precipitation, for the week starting July 13, 2026. The CPC expects above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation for the mountains of the South Platte River Basin.

Below is the Colorado Drought Monitor map from June 30, 2026. There was a one class degradation in Park County. There were one class improvements in Park, Clear Creek, Gilpin, Jefferson, Boulder, Weld, Logan, Morgan, Sedgwick, Adams, Arapahoe, and Elbert counties. Drought and abnormal dryness covers 100% of Colorado. The South Platte Basin is experiencing Abnormally Dry, Moderate, Severe, Extreme, and Exceptional drought conditions.

Below is the Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending June 30, 2026.

Here’s the US Drought Monitor Map from last week along with the one week U.S. change map.

Below is a screenshot of the USGS streamgages this morning that includes the South Platte River Basin.

Finally, Allen Best asks The nagging, unanswerable question for the Colorado River: What if next year looks like this one?:

What cannot be contested is Becky Mitchell’s assertion that demands cannot exceed supplies. This year, we’re robbing Peter to pay Paul. Water is being taken from Flaming Gorge and other federal upstream reservoirs to keep water in Powell. Blue Mesa Reservoir near Gunnison may have too little water to release any downstream, a condition called dead pool. The Bureau of Reclamation similarly sees that possibility for Navajo, the reservoir on the Colorado-New Mexico border.

The Bureau intends to release six million acre-feet from Powell for the lower-basin, leaving Powell 80% empty. The agency’s “most probable” projections see reservoir levels at Glen Canyon Dam early next year being too low to generate electricity.

In Grand Junction this week, people stood in the rain with sheer delight. It was a feel-good moment. But will El Niño save us from calamity? Maybe, but don’t bet on it. The warming climate seems to be rewriting the rules about how much water from the Pacific Ocean arrives on our mountains.

That was the takeaway from a recent presentation by Brad Udall, a scientist scholar affiliated with Colorado State University. El Niños in the past have produced big water years. One was in 1983, the year that flood waters nearly broke Glen Canyon Dam. Often, though, an El Niño produces no more moisture than a La Niña. Video ⬇️.

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Active weather delivered heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms east of the Rockies, with a few exceptions. Some of the heaviest rain, locally 4 to 8 inches or more, fell from portions of the central and southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, leading to pockets of flash flooding and lowland flooding. At least five flood-related fatalities were reported in Kentucky and Tennessee. Exceptions to the wet pattern included the western Gulf Coast region, parts of the Southeast, and an area stretching from the east-central Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. At the start of the drought-monitoring period, hot, dry weather dominated the West. However, a pattern change soon delivered cooler weather across the western U.S., along with widespread Northwestern precipitation. Wet snow blanketed some high-elevation sites in the northern Rockies. During the transition from hot to cool weather, gusty winds and low humidity levels favored wildfire ignition and rapid expansion, especially in portions of the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners States. At the end of June, more than a dozen active Western wildfires had scorched more than 10,000 acres of vegetation apiece, with the largest being the 94,000-acre Cottonwood Fire near Beaver, Utah. On June 28, three federal firefighters perished in the Knowles Fire, west of Grand Junction, Colorado…

High Plains

Like other areas in the central and eastern U.S., a patchwork quilt of showers provided drought relief in some areas. Some of the heaviest rain, occasionally accompanied by thunderstorm-driven high winds and large hail, fell in portions of all six states in the region. However, southeastern Nebraska was one area that missed all the rain. One of the most impressive outbreaks of severe weather occurred on the night of June 28-29, when a swath of wind damage stretched from northwestern Nebraska into southeastern North Dakota and beyond. An unofficial wind gust to 131 mph was clocked in Hyde County, South Dakota, while a gust to 112 mph was recorded at a mesonet station near Ree Heights in Hand County, South Dakota. Despite all the rain, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that rangeland and pastures continued to struggle. On June 28, statewide rangeland and pastures were rated 66% very poor in Nebraska, along with 63% in Colorado…

West

During the transition from hot weather to cooler conditions, gusty winds fanned recently ignited wildfires across portions of the eastern Great Basin and the Four Corners States. Fire ignition and spread was also abetted by dry thunderstorms, low humidity levels, and near-record to record-setting dry fuels. Pockets of worsening drought were observed in the Four Corners States, including a notable expansion of extreme drought (D3) across the northern half of New Mexico. In the Northwest, however, heavy precipitation—including high-elevation snow—eased drought from central Idaho into western and northern Montana. Less significant precipitation fell in the Pacific Northwest. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture on June 28, Western States reporting rangeland and pastures rated at least one-half very poor to poor included Arizona (70%) and Colorado (63%), while states with topsoil moisture more than one-half very short to short were Colorado (89%), Wyoming (81%), Utah (69%), New Mexico (68%), Nevada (65%), and Oregon (62%)…

South

The South experienced a second consecutive week of widespread reductions in drought coverage. In fact, flash flooding and lowland flooding plagued some of the hardest-hit areas, including the Arklatex and the southeastern corner of Oklahoma, where 2-week rainfall totals locally exceeded 10 inches. Much of the northern tier of the region, from Oklahoma to Tennessee, also received multiple rounds of heavy rain. Although mostly dry weather prevailed in south-central Texas, some additional improvements were introduced, as impacts of recent downpours on long-term drought became more apparent. By June 28, the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicated that statewide topsoil moisture in agricultural regions was 28% surplus in Louisiana…

Looking Ahead

Hot, humid weather will persist through the Independence Day weekend in most areas along and east of a line from the southern High Plains into the upper Midwest. Some of the most extreme heat will affect the middle Atlantic States, parts of which will experience multiple days with triple-digit (100-degree) heat. Although the Midwest will remain hot, temperatures in most areas will barely reach stressful thresholds (95°F of higher) for corn and soybeans entering the weather-sensitive reproductive stage of development. Furthermore, many Midwestern crops are progressing through the hot spell with adequate to locally surplus soil moisture. Meaningful precipitation during the next 5 days should be limited to parts of Florida’s peninsula and the upper Midwest; both areas could see 1 to 4 inches, with locally higher totals. Other areas of the central and eastern U.S. should receive spotty thunderstorms, while little or no rain will accompany a Western warming trend.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for July 7 – 11 calls for the likelihood of hotter-than-normal weather nationwide, except for near-normal temperatures along and near the Pacific Coast, extending as far south as central California. Meanwhile, odds will be tilted toward near- or above-normal rainfall across most of the country, with drier-than-normal conditions expected to be limited to the Great Basin and environs.