Day: December 14, 2021

Interior Secretary Deb Haaland promises governors federal help for fires, #drought — #Colorado Newsline #crwua2021

A burnt sign on Larimer County Road 103 near Chambers Lake. The fire started in the area near Cameron Peak, which it is named after. The fire burned over 200,000 acres during its three-month run. Photo courtesy of Kate Stahla via the University of Northern Colorado

by Jacob Fischler, Colorado Newsline
December 11, 2021

U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland pledged federal resources and cooperation with governors from 19 Western states to tackle wildfire resilience, drought management, oil and gas cleanup efforts and other issues made more difficult by climate change. 

Colorado Newsline is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Colorado Newsline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Quentin Young for questions: info@coloradonewsline.com. Follow Colorado Newsline on Facebook and Twitter.

When will low-snow or no-snow winters become the norm in the Sierras? The Rockies? — Big Pivots #snowpack #runoff #crwua2021

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map December 13, 2021.

From Big Pivots (Allen Best):

In 2008, Science magazine published an essay called “Stationarity is Dead: Whither Water Management.” In the essay, PCD Milly, a research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, and others, argued that climate change was upsetting all the apple carts of water management. Water management, they said, was set up for a 20th century climatic regime that had changed and would change further.

Thirteen years late, the evidence continues to accumulate in support of that thesis. The latest is a report, “A low-to-no snow future and its impacts on water resources in the western United States.”

The authors, primarily from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and other University of California schools, overlap with the research team for the SAIL project in Gothic. The report has six authors from California, one from Nevada and one from Colorado, Denver Water’s Laurna Kaatz.

The report published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment provides a bold warning about the strong potential for snowless winters becoming relatively commonplace by mid-century and beyond, especially in the coastal ranges and Sierra Nevada of the West Coast.

It got significant attention from the Washington Post last week under a headline of: “Snow may vanish for years at a time in Mountain West with climate warming.”

That’s not exactly news. I may be low on the journalistic totem pole, but I’ve been writing about this for at least a decade. And no one single headline can do justice to the variations of Western topography.

In a 2016 story I wrote:

“Contrary to what some have said, those who professionally study the changing climate and its rising temperatures do not foresee an end to snow. Or winter. Or skiing.

“At least not everywhere, nor in a set amount of time—the next 25 to 30 years—that matters to many North American mountain towns.

“They do see, however, continued increases in both day and nighttime temperatures that might threaten the livelihood of some ski areas, especially those at lower elevations, which could have a ripple effect on the industry.”

This new report delivers relatively little new information but does prominently hoist a talking point around the concept of low- and no-snow years.

The report synthesized 18 models about future precipitation and temperatures. The modeling foresees relatively little dramatic change until about mid-century. Then, changes occur abruptly.

Only 8% to 14% of years were classified as low- to no-snow over the period of 1950 to 2000.

This compares to 78% to 94% between 2050 and 2099.

The report defines a phenomenon called episodic low- to no snow as being five consecutive years in which more than 50% of the basin area experiences low-to-no snow. This emerges in the late 2040s in California, but in the 2060s for most basins.

This story was part of Big Pivots 49. Please consider subscribing.

Persistent low to no snow is defined as 10 consecutive years of greater than 5% of the basin area having low to no snow. That is predicted to occur in the late 2050s in California and as late as the end of the 2070s in the upper Colorado River Basin.

This is a broad-brush of a report. It distinguishes among the four major mountain ranges that have been studied, but provides relatively little differentiation other than to note a substantial distinction between the West Coast and the Rockies. And there is great uncertainty. “The large spread in projected changes at mid-century to end of century highlights the lack of consensus on this time to emerge of low- to no snow.”

To be clear, though, the science all points in the same direction. Just how different that future will be for babies born in 2021 when they became octogenarians is revealed in this sentence: “Although not impossible, it is unlikely that a complete disappearance of snow in the Western United States will occur before the end of the 21st century, even under a high-emissions scenario.”

The report bills itself as a “call to action” and warns of the “dire implications of a low- to no-snow future, given its central role in mountainous watershed behavior, ecosystem function, and ultimately, downstream water availability.”

Most of us understand this so well that it seems trite to even mention it, but the water infrastructure of the 20th century was built around the idea that fallen snow —the majority of precipitation in most Western basins, including those of Colorado —builds up over winter and then somewhat leisurely melts, often far into summer.
That absence of stationarity will have huge consequences of which we are only starting to reckon.

Tribal Inclusion in #ColoradoRiver Governance is a Win-Win Tribal perspective and participation are good politics and good policy for everyone — 3 Streams #COriver #aridification #crwua2021

Many Indian reservations are located in or near contentious river basins where demand for water outstrips supply. Map courtesy of the Bureau of Reclamation.

From 3 Streams (Dr. Elizabeth Koebele and Max Robinson):

In August 2021, a first-of-its-kind water shortage was declared by federal officials on the Colorado River, a critical water source for the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. The declaration triggered water delivery reductions to Arizona and Nevada, as well as to Mexico, under a temporary policy called the Drought Contingency Plan (DCP). Policymakers have already begun negotiating new guidelines to take the DCP’s place in 2026, recognizing that climate change-induced water shortages will necessitate even stricter water management in the future. However, these policymakers have largely ignored another “critical uncertainty” that could undermine efforts to achieve water sustainability in the Colorado River Basin: Tribal water rights.

More than two decades of drought in the Colorado River Basin have left Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, at just 34 percent of capacity. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation)

In August 2021, a first-of-its-kind water shortage was declared by federal officials on the Colorado River, a critical water source for the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. The declaration triggered water delivery reductions to Arizona and Nevada, as well as to Mexico, under a temporary policy called the Drought Contingency Plan (DCP). Policymakers have already begun negotiating new guidelines to take the DCP’s place in 2026, recognizing that climate change-induced water shortages will necessitate even stricter water management in the future. However, these policymakers have largely ignored another “critical uncertainty” that could undermine efforts to achieve water sustainability in the Colorado River Basin: Tribal water rights.

There are 30 federally-recognized Indian Tribes in the Colorado River Basin, twenty-two of whom hold rights to over 20% of the river’s average annual flow. Because Tribal water rights are granted under a unique set of federal rules, they are typically more secure than water rights held by most other users, meaning they’re more likely to be fulfilled in times of shortage in the over-allocated Colorado River system. Additionally, several Tribes hold priority rights to portions of the basin’s groundwater, a water source on which users are becoming increasingly reliant as the basin becomes dryer. Taken together, Tribes in the western U.S. hold rights to around 10.5 million acre-feet of water annually, exceeding most of the western states’ individual withdrawals.

Yet, many Tribes are unable to access and use their water rights due to issues associated with long-standing political disenfranchisement and socio-economic marginalization. For instance, twelve Tribes in the Colorado River Basin have disputed water rights claims that remain unresolved today. And, even when Tribes can gather the resources necessary to enter into expensive and uncertain litigation processes to “quantify” their water rights, they may receive only “paper water.” This means that, despite holding enforceable water rights, a Tribe lacks the means to access and use part or all of their entitlement, contributing to high rates of water insecurity on reservations among other issues. Other water users directly benefit from these injustices, especially during times of shortage, by claiming “unused” Tribal water for their own needs.

Fortunately, many Tribes have begun to quantify their water rights via settlements, which allow them to negotiate with the federal government, states, water districts, and private water users to better control the outcome of their water rights. As settlements have become the go-to mechanism for quantification, federal settlement funding has steadily increased.

As of 2019, authorized settlement funding totaled approximately $5.2 billion; however, in 2016 it was reported that $1 billion in settlement funding had gone unfunded even though previously authorized. More recently, the newly passed HR 3684 $1.2 trillion “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act” includes funding to “satisfy long-neglected water rights obligations to Native American tribes.” The actual value of these planned funds is currently unknown, but previous trends indicate a seemingly promising future for rectifying disputes involving Tribal water rights through settlements.

Additionally, while Tribes have been historically excluded from most water policymaking processes, many are already positioning themselves as critical players in the future of the Colorado River Basin. For instance, although Tribes were not formally included in the process used to develop the DCP, they played a pivotal role in helping the states in the basin reach agreement on a plan. Specifically, Tribes agreed to lease water to states and conserve water by temporarily fallowing some of their agriculture in exchange for compensation to help prop up system reservoir levels. Now, Tribal coalitions, such as the Ten Tribes Partnership, are advocating for more formal inclusion of Tribal voices in a plethora of Colorado River decision-making venues. This could include actions like creating a seat for Tribes on the Upper Colorado River Commission and employing the types of sovereign-to-sovereign consultation processes used in other governance situations involving Tribes.

With more severe water shortages on the horizon, continuing to leave Tribal water issues unresolved not only perpetuates historical injustices, but also exacerbates uncertainty and increases the risk for policymakers, water managers, and other water users. The emerging Colorado River renegotiation process provides a critical opportunity to upend policies and practices that have excluded Tribal voices for far too long. Fortunately, the trend toward negotiated settlements for Tribal water rights and enhanced Tribal influence in recent policymaking provides guidance for how this could be achieved.

These slow, but important changes also emphasize that addressing long-ignored Tribal water rights issues is a win-win for all stakeholders in the Colorado River Basin: it can reduce water supply uncertainty, garner federal funding, open new pathways for communication and collaboration, catalyze the development of innovative and flexible water management strategies, and — most importantly — begin to rectify a history of injustice and disenfranchisement of Tribal communities in the western U.S.

North American Indian regional losses 1850 thru 1890.

New report: 3 of 4 upper #ColoradoRiver basin states overusing Colorado River water — Wild Earth Guardians #COriver #aridification #crwua2021

Here’s the release from Wild Earth Guardians (Jen Pelz):

New research released [December 13, 2021] argues that Utah, Colorado and New Mexico are overusing their rights to the Colorado River and have not reduced their use in the face of a declining water supply. The Report, A Future on Borrowed Time, shows that while Colorado River flows declined 20% over the last two decades, it is likely that water flows will decline more in the future.

If these water deficits continue, the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California, Nevada alongside Mexico have the right to force the Upper Basin states to cut their water use of Colorado River water. The report also demonstrates that Upper Basin water leaders proposing additional water diversions are jeopardizing the water supplies for both cities and farmers in their own states.

“There’s some antiquated leadership in the Upper Basin from proponents of new water diversions who are jeopardizing the water rights of farmers and cities who have been using Colorado River water for decades” said Zach Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council, which produced the report. “Water leaders need to either stop denying that the Colorado River has dropped 20%, or they need to be replaced with professionals who embrace science and want to protect existing water users, instead of endangering them by proposing new water diversions amidst a declining supply.”

“The water crisis in the Colorado River Basin gets more dire everyday,” said Jen Pelz, Wild Rivers Program Director at WildEarth Guardians. “This report makes plain that additional dams and diversions from the Colorado River are not only irresponsible, but put the entire basin and the communities that benefit from its water at risk of economic, environmental and cultural collapse. We need real and immediate commitments, especially from the Upper Basin states, to live within the river’s means.”

The report showcases the water deficits happening today among Utah, Colorado and New Mexico. These water deficits are based on the 21st Century average of water flows, which are 19% less than the 20th Century average on the Colorado River. Additional reductions in Colorado River water flows of 30% and 40% reductions in water volume demonstrate that serious water cuts may have to be made in the Upper Basin states, including all newly proposed water diversions.

“This report underscores what many officials are reluctant to say: The Upper Basin is already using more water than legally allowed” said Kyle Roerink, executive director of the Great Basin Water Network. “Any new dam or diversion for non-tribal entities would be a conflagration of the law and detrimental to the public interest. It’s time for the Upper Basin to follow the lead of the Lower Basin and begin doing the hard work to get the Colorado River System back in balance.”

As Upper Basin states have sought to increase their water use in the face of a declining water supply, the Lower Basin states and Mexico are cutting 613,000 acre-feet of water from their Colorado River water deliveries starting on January 1, 2022. Arizona, Nevada and California have also announced their intention to cut an additional 500,000 acre-feet on top of these water cuts to adapt to shrinking water supplies.

“The State of Baja California in Mexico depends heavily on Colorado River water and these water cuts mean less water for drinking, hygiene and other essential human needs” said Margarita Diaz, executive director of Proyecto Fronterizo de Educación Ambiental, the Tijuana Waterkeeper. “We need to create a plan to ensure our people have the essential water they need to survive our climate change crisis.”

Brad Udall: Here’s the latest version of my 4-Panel plot thru Water Year (Oct-Sep) of 2021 of the Colorado River big reservoirs, natural flows, precipitation, and temperature. Data (PRISM) goes back or 1906 (or 1935 for reservoirs.) This updates previous work with
@GreatLakesPeck.

“Upper Basin water leaders have refused to accept forty years of science demonstrating that climate change is shrinking the Colorado River” said John Weisheit, Conservation Director Living Rivers, Colorado River Waterkeeper. “It’s time to stop pretending that shortages in the Upper Basin are not coming, they are here now.”

“The lower basin (Arizona, California and Nevada) uses more than 1 million acre-feet/year more than it is supposed to use. The fish representative of the health of the Colorado River have already either disappeared (Colorado Pikeminnow) or are no longer reproducing in the wild and are maintained by hatcheries (Razorback Sucker),” says Center for Biological Diversity Co-founder Robin Silver. “And Arizona’s answer: continue growing at a non-sustainable rate, inadequate conservation efforts, and return to groundwater pumping which is also not sustainable.”

This research was part of a year-long research effort led by the Utah Rivers Council with input from water experts from across the American West. The report was funded in part by a grant from the Cultural Vision Fund.

To download the report, click here.

This map shows the Colorado River Basin and surrounding areas that use Colorado River Water, with four regions delineated, based on the degree to which flow is regulated and the channel physically manipulated. The dividing line for the upper and lower basin is Lee Ferry near Glen Canyon Dam.
CREDIT: CENTER FOR COLORADO RIVER STUDIES

From the exectutive summary:

This report quantifies the water shortages in the Upper Colorado River Basin so the public and its decision makers have some clarity about our shared future. The results are shocking. Before we explore these results, a few words on our methodology along- side a basic understanding of what climate change is doing to the Colorado River System water supply are needed.

In regards to methodology, we have estimated how large the Up- per Basin’s water shortage would be for different Colorado River flow scenarios but have not predicted the year in which these shortages will occur. Instead, we tie our quantification to reduced flow levels in the Colorado River which are happening as a func- tion of shrinking snowpacks from climate change.

These reduced flow levels are expected to continue as a function of climate change, meaning that any given shortage would occur
when the Colorado River reaches a projected level. Through this exercise, we were able to determine how much water each Up- per Basin state would be allowed to use if climate change contin- ues to lower the flows of the Colorado River in the future.

To properly understand how the Basin got to this water deficit, it is simply essential that stakeholders understand the impacts of climate change on the Colorado River System.

We recognize the words ‘climate change’ polarize some decision makers, many of whom govern our water supply and water pol- icies. However, we ask audiences who do not believe in climate change or do not believe mankind has caused climate change to suspend their disbelief long enough to learn about the observed impacts in the Colorado River Basin. Even if one doesn’t agree about the cause of the impacts, the impacts themselves are undeniable and must be addressed with intelligence.

The stakes of being wrong about what is happening to our water supply are very high, and having an open mind and hearing di- verse viewpoints is not only one of the responsibilities of elected and appointed officials, it’s an inspiring exercise in learning how our shared interests unite us more than they divide us.

Owner of mine to pay $1.6 million in settlement for #GoldKingMine blowout: Money will go toward restoration projects in areas damaged by spill — The #Durango Herald #AnimasRiver #SanJuanRiver #ColoradoRiver #COriver

This image was taken during the peak outflow from the Gold King Mine spill at 10:57 a.m. Aug. 5, 2015. The waste-rock dump can be seen eroding on the right. Federal investigators placed blame for the blowout squarely on engineering errors made by the Environmental Protection Agency’s-contracted company in a 132-page report released Thursday [October 22, 2015]

From The Durango Herald (Nicholas A. Johnson):

A $1.6 million settlement agreement with Sunnyside Gold Corp. was approved by the Colorado Natural Resources Trustees to resolve the company’s liability for damaged natural resources at the Bonita Peak Mining District Superfund Site where the 2015 Gold King Mine blowout occurred.

Colorado Natural Resources Trustees include state Attorney General Phil Weiser, Executive Director of the Colorado Department of Natural Resources Jill Hunsaker Ryan and the Executive Director of Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment Dan Gibbs.

The settlement will allow trustees to fund restoration projects in natural areas damaged by the spill and other releases of hazardous substances within the Superfund site.

Trustees will now begin to consult with regional stakeholders, including local governments and nonprofit groups, solicit proposals and allocate the money for environmental restoration and property acquisition projects.

“The settlement announced today is a step in the right direction to address the damage suffered in Southwest Colorado and the Four Corners region in the wake of the Gold King Mine disaster and other degradation of our natural resources,” Weiser said in a news release. “The trustees look forward to partnering with the local community on how to invest the funds.”

The work reflects the mandate of the trustees to take necessary actions to address when Colorado’s natural resources are injured or destroyed.

In an email to The Durango Herald, Gina Meyers, director of reclamation operations for Sunnyside Gold Corp., said the settlement agreement was reached as a matter of practicality, with no admission of liability or wrongdoing.

The settlement agreement resolves the trustees’ claims that Sunnyside caused or contributed to releases of acidic, metals-laden mine wastewater into the Upper Animas River watershed. Sunnyside operated the Sunnyside Mine from 1986 until 1991…

The settlement agreement will be filed with the U.S. District Court in Denver. Once filed with the court, the agreement will go through a 30-day public comment process.

After the close of the comment period, Sunnyside Gold Corp. and the trustees will present all comments received to the court. The court will ultimately decide whether to approve the settlement.

“The trustees look forward to infusing funds into the local economy through community endorsed reclamation projects that improve watersheds and address legacy mining impacts,” Gibbs said in a news release.

Cement Creek aerial photo — Jonathan Thompson via Twitter