Click on a thumbnail graphic below to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor.
US Drought Monitor map December 28, 2021.
High Plains Drought Monitor map December 28, 2021.
West Drought Monitor map December 28, 2021.
Colorado Drought Monitor map December 28, 2021.
Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:
This Week’s Drought Summary
A persistent pattern over the North Pacific and western North America maintained a continuation of frequent storms affecting the West Coast through late December. 7-day precipitation from December 21-27 exceeded 2 inches, liquid equivalent, across much of California along with western portions of Oregon and Washington. During the past two weeks, precipitation has averaged 150 to 300 percent of normal, or more, throughout nearly all of California. This wet pattern during mid to late December has also been accompanied by below normal temperatures (-2 to -6 degrees F) across California and the Pacific Northwest. Periods of heavy snow continue to build a favorable snowpack from the Cascades southward to the Sierra Nevada Mountains. On December 23 and 24, a strong low pressure system tracked inland from the East Pacific and resulted in widespread precipitation of 0.5 to 3 inches, liquid equivalent, across much of southern California along with the Great Basin, Southwest, and Four Corners region. Dry weather with much above normal temperatures persisted throughout the central and southern Great Plains. As of December 28, month-to-date temperatures have averaged more than 7 degrees F above normal across the south-central U.S. Eastern North Dakota and the upper Mississippi Valley received another round of precipitation (0.25 to 0.75 inches, liquid equivalent) this past week. Following a period of widespread rainfall across much of the Ozarks region, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast during mid-December, dry weather returned to these areas from Dec 21 to 27. Little or no precipitation continued through late December across the Mid-Atlantic. The wet pattern, typical of La Nina winters, continues to affect Hawaii…
A continued expansion of abnormal dryness (D0), moderate drought (D1), and severe drought (D2) were required again this week across much of Kansas due to worsening soil moisture indicators, 90 to 120-day SPIs, declining streamflows, and impacts such as cattle sell-offs. A 1-category degradation was made to the southwest corner of Nebraska based on soil moisture and SPI values at various time scales. A recent increase in snowpack led to improving drought conditions across the central Rockies, to the west of the Continental Divide. Severe (D2) to extreme (drought) was expanded across northeast Colorado due to declining soil moisture indicators and EDDI. Precipitation (more than 0.5 inch, liquid equivalent) on Dec 26 along with positive SPI values dating back 6 months supported a slight decrease in abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) across central and eastern North Dakota…
Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending December 28, 2021.
Heavy December precipitation, SWE numbers, and 12 to 24-month SPIs supported a large 1-category improvement to California along with parts of Nevada and Utah. The SWE is 150 to 250 percent of normal throughout the Sierras for this time of year. The Central Sierra snow lab has observed 193.7 inches of snowfall this month which is a December record. 179 inches, set in 1970, was the previous record for December. As of December 28, the California statewide average of snow water content is 159 percent of normal for that date. Given the favorable snowpack and heavy precipitation during December, additional improvements may be warranted for California during subsequent weeks. Widespread, heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches, liquid equivalent) resulted in a 1-category improvement across parts of Arizona and Utah where the heaviest amounts occurred and also supported by 12-month SPI values. A 1-category improvement was also made to much of northern and central Idaho along with adjacent areas of northwest Montana based on near to above normal SWE and 24-month SPI. A sharp gradient in drought conditions exists from west to east along the Continental Divide. During the past 14 days, parts of southeast Washington and northeast Oregon have received more than 2 inches of precipitation, liquid equivalent. This recent heavy precipitation and favorable response from soil moisture and 28-day streamflow indicators prompted a slight improvement to those areas. The longer term SPEI, which includes the record heat earlier this summer, continues to support extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought for central and eastern parts of Oregon and Washington. Along and to the west of the Cascades, additional improvements were made this week to western Oregon. A recent increase in snowfall prompted improving drought conditions across parts of northern New Mexico, while all of northeast New Mexico is now designated with severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought. No precipitation has been observed at Clayton, New Mexico for 76 days which is the 5th longest streak on record…
Based on persistent dryness, periods of enhanced winds and anomalous warmth this month, and worsening soil moisture conditions, a broad 1-category degradation was made to much of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Most locations across southwestern Oklahoma along with the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles have received less than 0.10 inch of precipitation during the past 70 to 80 days. As of December 28, Amarillo, Texas has observed no precipitation for 76 consecutive days which is the second longest dry streak on record. Additional expansion of various Dx levels was also made across much of the remainder of Texas due to persistent dryness and much above normal temperatures. Month-to-date temperatures, as of December 28, have averaged more than 8 degrees F above normal throughout nearly all of Oklahoma and Texas. The current depiction of conditions across Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi was a balance among SPI values, soil moisture, and 28-day average streamflows. During the past 90 days, precipitation has averaged less than 50 percent of normal throughout much of the lower Mississippi Valley…
Looking Ahead
Another round of heavy rain and high-elevation snow are forecast across southern California, the Southwest, and Four Corners region on Dec 30 and 31. A low pressure system and trailing front are expected to progress eastward from the central to eastern U.S. from Jan 1 to 2. A swath of snow may occur on the northwest side of the surface low track, from the central Plains northeast to the Midwest and Great Lakes. Heavy rain (1 to 3 inches) is forecast to overspread the Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic. Little to no precipitation is expected for the southern Great Plains into the beginning of the New Year. Heavy rain and high-elevation snow is forecast to return to the Pacific Northwest and northern California by Jan 3. Following a brief moderation in temperatures, another outbreak of Arctic air is anticipated to shift south from Canada into the northern Plains during the first week of January 2022. The wet pattern is likely to persist across Hawaii well into the New Year.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid Jan 4-8, 2022) favors above-normal temperatures across the southern Great Plains, Gulf Coast States, and along the East Coast. Below-normal temperatures are very likely for the northern Great Plains and southeastern Alaska where probabilities exceed 70 percent. Near or below-normal temperatures are favored throughout the West. Above-normal precipitation is most likely across the northern to central Rockies, Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and northern California. Probabilities of above-normal precipitation are elevated from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, while below-normal precipitation remains favored for the southern Great Plains.
US Drought Monitor one week change map ending December 28, 2021.
Ute Mountain Ute Tribe area map via USBR/Ten Tribes Partnership Tribal Water Study
FromThe Cortez Journal (Jim Mimiaga) via The Durango Herald:
Limited water supply consolidated to keep corn crop and flour mill operating; jobs lost, canal payment assistance requested
In the Ute Mountain Ute language, paa is the word for water, nüvav means “snow,” uway means “to rain” and tühpar üatüaa means “dried up cropland.”
These words weigh heavily on the minds of Ute Mountain Utes in Southwest Colorado because they are missing the critical ingredients of snow in the mountains and rain in the valleys.
Tribal member Wilford Lang drove a tractor for more than 20 years for the tribe’s 7,600-acre alfalfa and corn farm, southwest of Towaoc.
He has seen water supply fluctuate up and down. But when flows in the Dolores River and McPhee Reservoir came in at 10% for the 2021 season, he and 20 other workers on the farm suddenly lost their jobs…
Water is sacred for the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe, and with less to go around, the tribe is searching for ways to augment its supply.
Tribal elders remember water scarcity long before the Colorado Ute Water Rights Settlement of 1988, which provides water for tribal lands from the Dolores River and McPhee Reservoir.
Vera Summa remembers the 1950s, when she and her grandmother collected water from the springs and mesas of Sleeping Ute Mountain. During winter, adults, elders and children collected snow in bundles and hauled it out on their backs, Summa said…
Mancos River in Montezuma County
The Mancos River runs through Ute Mountain reservation lands, but it dried up after Jackson Reservoir was built in 1950 to serve the Mancos area upstream, said elder Laverna Summa, Vera’s sister.
Water shortages are happening again, brought on by a worsening dry spell that started in 2002…
In 2021, drought-stricken fallow fields have replaced the bounty of alfalfa and corn harvests on the Ute Mountain Farm and Ranch operations, an economic hardship brought on by the worst water year in McPhee Reservoir history.
Marginal mountain snowpack was sucked up by dry ground and whisked away on the warm spring wind.
Mcphee Reservoir
The runoff from mountain snowmelt never made it to McPhee, where the water level already was low from the previous parched year.
The 2021 deficit caused a 90% water shortage for farmers tied to the Dolores Water Conservancy District, including the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe.
The tribe’s 7,600-acre farm received just 10% of its 24,517 acre-foot allocation.
The water shortage dried out fields and brought financial challenges for the farming and ranching operations. The tribe laid off half its farm workers, about 20 total, most of whom are tribal members…
Farm operations include the Bow and Arrow mill, a state-of-the-art facility opened in 2014 that sells non-GMO, gluten-free and kosher cornmeal to food manufacturers, grocery stores and distilleries.
The mill’s products are used to make chips, polenta, pasta, grits, cornbread, whiskey and more.
Simon Martinez, general manager of the Ute Mountain Ute Bow and Arrow Brand and Farm & Ranch Enterprises, talks Oct. 20 near Towaoc about how drought and reduced irrigation have affected crop production. (Jerry McBride/Durango Herald)
Jerry McBride
The Ute Mountain Ute Bow and Arrow Brand mill on Oct. 20 near Towaoc. (Jerry McBride/Durango Herald)
Jerry McBride
Martinez used most this year’s limited water supply to irrigate the white, yellow and blue corn crops and keep the mill and its staff of 13 going. The tribe’s ranching operation, with a 600 cow-calf herd, has been kept whole.
So far, business has been brisk at the corn mill, but the drought weighs on everyone’s mind…
South of Hesperus August 2019 Sleeping Ute Mountain in the distance. Photo credit: Allen Best/The Mountain Town News
Lang said the farm and ranch operation and Bow and Arrow corn mill have been an economic boon for the tribe. They provide well-paying careers for many tribal members and create a deep sense of pride…
Towaoc-Highline Canal via Ten Tribes Partnership/USBR Tribal Water Study
The drastic drop in crop revenue fell short of the $660,000 in annual delivery costs for the water on the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Towaoc-Highline Canal.
So far this year, Martinez said, the tribe has paid $150,000 of that bill and has asked the Bureau of Reclamation for drought assistance to pay the rest…
Martinez and his reduced farm staff still must tend to thousands of acres of fallow fields, and they are discing the soil and controlling weeds to prep the fields for next year.
Long-term forecasts for the Four Corners region of Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Utah call for abnormally dry and hot weather…
Senior water rights buffer drought impacts
Ute Mountain Ute water rights have a complex history.
As part of the Colorado Ute Water Rights Settlement of 1988, the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe gave up 1868 rights on the Mancos River in exchange for more junior water rights to the Dolores River in McPhee Reservoir, said Mike Preston, a water consultant for the tribe.
The settlement was made partly in response to the Mancos River going dry through Ute Mountain Ute land after Jackson Lake was built upstream in Mancos.
As original inhabitants, Native American tribes have inherent water rights, which were codified by the Winters Doctrine, a 1908 U.S. Supreme Court decision that mandates that tribal reservations have access to water.
As part of the 1988 settlement, the Dolores Project and McPhee Reservoir satisfied Ute Mountain Ute water rights via delivery from McPhee and the gravity-fed 39-mile Towoac-Highline Canal to Ute Farm and Ranch.
The settlement also created a reliable domestic water line to Towaoc from the Cortez water treatment plant, which gets the water from McPhee…
Ute Farm and Ranch shares equally with other water district farmers when water supply is below normal.
Consequently, the tribe took a 90% hit this year, along with other ranches and farms. The fish pool, 32,500 acre-feet earmarked for native fish habitat downstream of McPhee Reservoir, also took the cut. Municipalities do not share in the shortage.
Montezuma Tunnel
McPhee, the Dolores Water Conservancy District and the tribe are more exposed to drought because their water rights on the Dolores River are junior to those of Montezuma Valley Irrigation Co.
In these dry times, the tribe has redoubled its efforts to study and potentially claim all its water rights, including on the San Juan River, said Ute Mountain Ute Chairman Manuel Heart. The river touches the Ute Mountain reservation while flowing from New Mexico to Utah…
Colorado’s prior appropriation water system of “first in line, first in right” can leave more junior water right holders high and dry in extreme drought, a situation that is playing out now.
The practicality and fairness of the system in a new era of aridification and chronic water shortage has been a point of discussion, Heart said.
“We have been here the longest, but don’t have senior status, plus we have OandM costs on the canal to get our water,” Heart said. “We’re seeing a megadrought. In the future if the drought gets worse, who will get cut short, Montezuma, Cortez or us?”
Looking west across the northeast bay of Totten Reservoir with the boat in the background; the photo was taken from the peninsula between the two bays at the north end of Totten Reservoir. Sources/Usage Public Domain via USGS. Photographer: Keelin Schaffrath
The tribe has hired additional staff to work on water issues, and Heart encourages leaders to “think out of the box.” He said the tribe should have looked into buying Totten Lake, which recently was sold to Montezuma Valley Irrigation Co. Totten feeds McElmo Creek, which flows through tribal lands…
“We’d like to talk about adding storage to Jackson Lake, so we could release our share down the Mancos and collect it here,” Heart said. The water could augment water shortages from the Dolores River and McPhee Reservoir.
Montezuma Tunnel steel arches.
Montezuma Valley Irrigation Co. has senior rights
Montezuma Valley Irrigation’s senior water rights date to 1888 and 1885 and include the first 795 cubic feet per second of the Dolores River. Anything above that flow mostly goes to Dolores Water Conservation District.
In normal runoff years, the river flows well above that level and is enough to satisfy MVIC rights and fill McPhee reservoir.
But during extreme dry periods, MVIC’s senior position buffers the impact of drought somewhat for its shareholders because at lower flows, their river rights are more senior and more likely to be filled.
View to southwest, looking down on Groundhog Reservoir. Photo via dcasler.com.
MVIC, which stores water in Narraguinnep, Groundhog and Totten reservoirs, has rights to about 130,000 acre-feet of Dolores River Basin water annually. This year, it received only 92,000 acre-feet because of the drought.
The poor snowpack caused a 30% shortage this year for MVIC, and the irrigation season was shortened by about 20 days, said MVIC manager Brandon Johnson.
The good news is the local snowpack is starting to build. But what constitutes “normal” snowfall has changed.
The Dec. 29 snow measurement on Vail Mountain stands at 92% of the 30-year median. It’s a big jump in six days. The Dec. 23 number was 65% of normal.
Copper Mountain, the closest site to the headwaters of Gore Creek, stands at 97% of normal, while Fremont Pass, the closest site to the headwaters of the Eagle River, stands at 110% of normal.
But here are a couple of things to think about:
First, it’s still very early in the snow season — generally measured between the end of October and May of the following year. The snowpack on Vail Mountain — as measured in “snow water equivalent” — currently stands at roughly 32% of the median peak. That peak comes in late April.
As the past week shows, it’s fairly easy to make up snowpack deficits this early in the season.
The other thing to ponder is that the 30-year median has changed, and that number is lower than it once was.
he curent season’s snowpack on Vail Mountain, shown in blue, is just about at the 30-year median for snowfall at that site. Eagle River Water & Sanitation District/Courtesy image
Diane Johnson, the communications and public affairs manager for the Eagle River Water & Sanitation District, said the National Resources Conservation Service changes the 30-year median every 10 years, creating a literal “new normal.”
A lower median
The 30-year median now reflects the snow years between 1990 and the end of the 2020 snow year. That’s a big change from the 30-year median that included some monstrous snow years in the 1980s. The new 30-year median now includes some of the most snow-starved winters on record, including the all-time low year of 2011-12.
That change has already made a difference in this season’s numbers.
For instance, the Dec. 29 reading at Vail Mountain would have been 89% of the former 30-year median.
Again, the current snowy period is good. Again, though, the bar is set relatively low at this point in the season…
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook through the end of March, 2022, from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center puts virtually all of the Mountain West into the “drought persists” category. On the other hand, the map valid through the end of December also showed the Mountain West in the “drought persists” category…
Down, down, down
The trend line of the 30-year snowpack median is headed inexorably down.
And, Johnson added, just “normal” snow years won’t be enough to break the grip of what’s now a yearslong drought cycle…
Given current shortages, it would take multiple big-snow seasons to restore streams and reservoirs in the region. That’s unlikely, Johnson said. Big years aren’t a reality any more, Johnson said.
“We’re just not going to get back to where all these (reservoirs) were full,” she said.
That means people need to change their behavior regarding water use, particularly outdoor water use, Johnson said.
“We need our customers to manage with us,” she said. “It’s about people living a little differently in their landscape.”
Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map December 29, 2021 via the NRCS.
