Click here to read the discussion. Here’s an excerpt:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 8 August 2019
ENSO Alert System Status: Final El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: El Niño has transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (50-55% chance).

During July, ENSO-neutral conditions were reflected by the combination of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-average SSTs in the central Pacific. The latest weekly ENSO indices were +1.0°C, +0.5°C, -0.2°C and -0.5°C in the Niño-4, Niño-3.4, Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively. Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) were near average throughout the month, as anomalously cool waters prevailed in the eastern Pacific and anomalously warm waters continued in the central Pacific. Suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while near-average convection was observed near the Date Line. Low-level wind anomalies were near average over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level winds were easterly over the east-central Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Indices remained slightly negative. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with a transition to ENSO-neutral.

The latest IRI/CPC plume of forecasts of the Niño-3.4 index favors ENSO-neutral (Niño- 3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C), with index values greater than zero from late Northern Hemisphere summer into fall, warming closer to the El Niño threshold (+0.5°C) by winter. Atypically, dynamical models forecast weaker positive SST anomalies than statistical models throughout most of the forecast period. As a result, while forecasters favor ENSO-neutral conditions, the odds of El Niño (~30%) are roughly twice that of La Niña for next winter. In summary, El Niño has transitioned to ENSO- neutral, which is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (50-55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Click on a thumbnail graphic below to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor.

US Drought Monitor August 8, 2019.

West Drought Monitor August 8, 2019.

Colorado Drought Monitor August 8, 2019.

Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Heavy rain fell on large parts of Alaska this past week, bringing significant short-term relief, including an end to large fire development and expansion, at least for the time being. In contrast, dryness and drought expanded across broad sections of the contiguous 48 states, with relief restricted to parts of the Southeast. Most notably, hot and dry weather brought significant D0 expansion in the southern half of the Great Plains and across the Midwest and lower Ohio Valley. In the Northeast Climate Region, a few abnormally dry areas were introduced; this is only the fourth week since mid-January that dryness existed in any part of the Region. Meanwhile, heavy rain in eastern Puerto Rico improved conditions over eastern parts of the Commonwealth…

High Plains

It was a dry week in and near existing areas of dryness and drought. Broad expansion of abnormal dryness occurred across central and southern Kansas, where conditions have deteriorated quickly as in Oklahoma and Texas. Much of central and south-central Kansas received 0.5 inch or less of rainfall over the last 30 days. In the rest of the region, D0 and D1 conditions generally persisted, with very limited expansion brought into parts of northern North Dakota, east-central Nebraska, and southeastern Colorado…

West

Severe drought persisted in portions of northwestern Washington where only 40 to 75 percent of normal precipitation fell during the past six months. Light to locally moderate rain fell this week from central Arizona through central New Mexico, and across portions of southern and eastern Montana. Other areas recorded very little or none. Increasing moisture deficits induced moderate drought expansion into northwestern New Mexico while D0 expanded in southeastern Washington and across northern Montana. Conditions were unchanged in other areas. The past 60 days brought only 25 to 50 percent of normal rainfall to the new moderate drought area in northwestern New Mexico…

South

Another drier-than-normal week affected central and eastern sections of Texas and Oklahoma as well as the northern tier of Louisiana, where little or no rain was reported. Recent hot and dry weather there has spawned broad development of D0 and D1 conditions in the south-central Plains, with severe drought introduced in southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent Texas. Broad swaths of central and western Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and southwestern Texas recorded only a few tenths of an inch of rain at best over the last 30 days, and about 25 to 60 percent of normal since early June…

Looking Ahead

During the next 5 days (August 8 – 13, 2019) should bring heavy rains of 1 to locally 4 inches to portions of western New Mexico, a swath through the central Plains, and many locations across upstate New York and southern Maine. Most of the area from northern Idaho eastward through northern Montana are expecting 1 to 2 inches, as are most of the Dakotas and scattered patches across the Pacific Northwest. Other areas of dryness across the contiguous 48 states should get lesser amounts. Locally up to an inch is expected in the Southeast and southern New England, and little or none is anticipated in most of the new D0 area in the southern Plains from central Kansas through Oklahoma and Texas. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees above normal in the southern Plains and the Southeast while subnormal temperatures should extend from the northern half of the Plains to the Pacific Ocean.

The CPC 6-10 day outlook (August 14 -18, 2019) favors above-normal precipitation in east-central Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, the central and northern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast. Meanwhile, subnormal precipitation is expected in southern and southeast Alaska, the eastern Great Basin, the Four Corners States, most of Texas, and the Northeast. Temperatures should average below normal from the Intermountain West eastward through the Midwest and Northeast, and across east-central Alaska. Farther south, southern and southeastern Alaska have enhanced chances of warmer than normal weather, along with the Pacific Coast and a large swath from the Great Basin through the Four Corners States, central and southern High Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. The highest likelihood for hotter than normal weather are across most of Texas and the lower Southeast.