Below are my notes from today’s meeting:

Taryn Hutchins-Cabibi announced that the state drought plan is finished and was approved 2 weeks ago by the Colorado Water Conservation Board (along with the flood mitigation plan). The documents have been forwarded to the Colorado Division of Emergency Management for approval then on to Governor Ritter.

Ms. Hutchins-Cabibi reported also that the task force is looking for a mechanism to bring long-term forecasts back into the agenda.

State Climatologist’s Report

Nolan Doesken reported that the temperature for the last couple of months has been, “cheating more and more on the warm side,” and that, “for most of the state the summer has been warm.”

In September Colorado saw a, “drying out to the point of no precipitation in some areas,” he said.

The Southwestern Monsoon, “Doesn’t always cover the whole state, Doesken added, but, “Overall for the water year we’re seeing a near average water year through August.”

Grand Lake, “will not have its driest year on record,” after all, according to Doesken, but it is close. He added that he wonders how the location of the weather station is affecting readings and are they still representative of the area at that site.

Karen Rademacher from the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District echoed the concern saying that, “We’re not seeing the same situation,” in Grand County. In fact, she said, if, “we have anywhere near a normal snowpack Lake Granby will spill next year.”

Montrose has had near average precipitation for the water year. Mesa Verde has seen average precipitation as well thanks to a good monsoon season. The Rio Grande Basin will end the year below average.

Burlington however has experienced the second “extraordinarily wet year,” in a row, he said. They’ve received 25 inches this water year and 20 inches last water year. This dovetails with a short report from the Colorado Department of Agriculture representative (I didn’t catch his name) saying that it has been a fantastic year for agriculture on the eastern plains.

Fort Collins should end up right at the long-term average for precipitation, according to Doesken. Boulder will have an above average water year with a, “very dry ending,” he said. He showed last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor which is showing an, “expansion of dry areas,” in northern Colorado.

Natural Resources Conservation Service report

I thought we were going to get a very short report when Mike Gillespie started his presentation by saying that there is, “still no snow to report.” He did however have a report on precipitation totals, trends and reservoir storage from around the state.

The Yampa-White precipitation is sitting at 92% of average. The Upper Colorado River Basin reservoir storage is at 92% of the long term average, he said, adding that they are, “going into the new water year in good shape.”

In the South Platte Basin precipitation is at 92% of average and reservoir storage is 112% of average which is 98% of the total in water year 2009. The basin is, “going into the new water year in good shape as well,” he said.

Down in southwestern Colorado they have a long way to go to get back to average after a, “couple of below average water years back to back,” but reservoir storage is, “slightly above average,” according to Gillespie.

The Rio Grande basin needed a good monsoon to get to precipitation up to 93% of average while reservoir storage is 84% of average. The Arkansas Basin precipitation stands at 90% of average and reservoir storage is 94% of average, he said.

Statewide water year precipitation is 92% and will not improve since, “September has definitely been a dry month,” said Gillespie. Statewide reservoir storage is 103% of average.

Lake Powell and Lake Mead

Just for grins the task force likes to keep an eye on the two big reservoirs on the Colorado River downstream from the “Rooftop of America”. Ms. Hutchins-Cabibi reported that Lake Powell is sitting at 65% of capacity while Lake Mead is at 39% of capacity and dropping. The system is at 56% of capacity which is, “slightly lower that last year at this time.”

More CWCB coverage here.

From the Summit County Citizens Voice (Bob Berwyn):

Reducing dust deposition could help boost the Colorado River’s yield, but that would mean changing land-use patterns and human disturbances in the southwestern desert regions, according to Brad Udall, director of the Western Water Assessment. “By cutting down on dust we could restore some of the lost flow, which is critical as the Southwestern climate warms,” Udall said.

Snow dusted with dark particles absorbs a greater fraction of the Sun’s rays and melts faster than white snow, said Jeffrey Deems, who does research for the Western Water Assessment and the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Earlier snowmelt then lets the growing season of snow-covered vegetation start earlier, resulting in more water lost through evaporation and transpiration, Deems said said. That leaves less water for the Colorado River, which supplies water to more than 27 million people in seven states and two countries.

Heavy dust coatings on the snowpack are a relatively recent phenomenon. Since the mid-1800s onwards, human activities, such as livestock grazing and road building, have disturbed the desert soil and broken up the soil crust that curbs wind erosion. Winds then whip up the desert dust — from northwest New Mexico, northeast Arizona, and southern Utah — and drop it on downwind on the mountains that feed the Colorado’s headwaters.

More coverage the Fort Collins Coloradoan (Bobby Magill):

With climate change factored in, the Colorado River could see a reduction in flow of up to 25 percent by 2050, said study co-author Brad Udall, director of the Western Water Assessment, a joint program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and CU’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences.

Each year, dust is carried by strong winds from Southwest deserts and deposited onto the snowy slopes of the Rockies. Much of that dust is seen in the San Juan Mountains, but some makes it as far northeast as the northern Front Range, Udall said Tuesday. Mountain snow can appear red or look like cinnamon toast after a dust storm, and it can easily be seen from an airplane…

The study, he said, does not directly address how the river’s flow will be decreased by climate change, but global warming is expected to dry and warm the region and reduce the Colorado River’s flow by up to 20 percent. That should be a concern to people living along the Front Range, because much of their water supply comes from the Colorado River Basin, he said. The loss of Colorado River flow and future development in the Front Range urban corridor are intrinsically linked, he said.

The study was published in the Sept. 20 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and was paid for by the National Science Foundation, NASA and the Western Water Assessment.

From The Durango Telegraph (Will Sands):

Scientists have long known that dust was changing the reflective properties of snowfields and increasing the speed of runoff each year. However, this study is the first to measure the full impact of dust storms on snowmelt rates and basin runoff. The team examined run-off in the Upper Colorado River basin between 1915-2003 and then simulated conditions prior to the settlement of the region in the mid-1800s. Lake sediment cores show that dust deposits in the San Juan Mountains increased by between 500 and 600 percent since the Southwest was settled. Based on these values, the team discovered that the Colorado River basin is experiencing a 35-billion cubic foot reduction in water every year because of dust. That amounts to enough water to supply the City of Los Angeles for 18 months. “Actions to stabilize soils and minimize activities that disturb soils could potentially decrease dust emissions and the loss of runoff,” argued Tom Painter, the team leader and a snow hydrologist with NASA.

Ronni Egan, executive director of the Durango-based Great Old Broads for Wilderness, said residents of the Southwest should be taken aback by the numbers.

Here’s the release from the United States Geological Survey (Paul Laustsen/Jayne Belnap/Tom Painter):

Dust caused by human activities in the American desert Southwest is a contributing factor in speeding up the melting of snow and reducing runoff in the mountains of the Colorado River basin, according to a new study led by NASA and co-authored by the U.S. Geological Survey.
The findings have major implications for the 27 million people in seven U.S. states and Mexico who rely on the Colorado River for drinking, agricultural and industrial water. The research shows that peak spring runoff comes as much as 3 weeks earlier than before the region was settled and soils were disturbed, but also that runoff may be decreased by more than 5 percent a year compared to pre-settlement levels.

“Reducing dust loads in this area and in similar mountainous areas around the world may help lessen regional effects of climate change,” said Jayne Belnap, a USGS desert soil expert and a co-author of the study.

Until now, scientists had a poor understanding of dust-on-snow events, despite frequent, large episodes of dust deposition. While scientists knew from theory and modeling that dust could be changing the albedo — the solar energy reflectance properties — of snowfields, this study is the first to measure its full impact on snowmelt rates and basin runoff.

The team examined hydrologic effects of human-produced dust deposits on mountain snowpacks over the Upper Colorado River basin between 1915 and 2003. By using a sophisticated hydrological model, the researchers simulated the balance of water in the basin under current conditions and as they existed before the desert Southwest was settled in the mid-to-late 1800s, when grazing and agriculture disturbed fragile desert soils and reduced their natural protection from wind erosion. Lake sediment cores show increased dust deposits in the Rockies by between 500 and 600 percent since the region was settled.

More than 80 percent of sunlight falling on fresh snow is typically reflected back to space. When small, dark particles of dust fall on snow, that percentage drops sharply. Winds blow desert dust east from the Southwest, triggering “dust-on-snow” events. When dust falls on mountain snowfields, it absorbs more sunlight and warms the now “dirty” snow surface, leading to much earlier melt and loss of snow cover.

Some of this warmer snow evaporates directly to the atmosphere, but more importantly, an earlier snowmelt exposes plants earlier as well, allowing them to lose water to the atmosphere through transpiration. The amount that is lost may be more than an annual average 5 percent of the runoff that would have otherwise fed the Colorado River. This 35-billion cubic foot a year reduction in annual runoff is enough water to supply Los Angeles for 18 months.

“The compressed mountain runoff period makes water management more difficult than a slower runoff would,” said Tom Painter, the team leader and a snow hydrologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. “Actions to stabilize soils and minimize activities that disturb soils could potentially decrease dust emissions and the loss of runoff.”

For example, said Painter, peak runoff under “cleaner” conditions (less dust-on-snow) would come later in summer, when agricultural and other water demands are greater.

This study was co-sponsored by the National Science Foundation. Results of the study, Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow, are published in this week’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Participating institutions include the National Snow and Ice Center, Boulder, Colo.; U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Center, Moab, Utah; University of Washington, Seattle; Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies, Silverton, Colo.; and the University of Colorado-NOAA Western Water Assessment, Boulder.

More Colorado River Basin coverage here.