From The Denver Post (Bruce Finley):

Former Gov. Bill Ritter “was always concerned about the loss of agricultural lands, and Gov. (John) Hickenlooper is concerned about the loss of agricultural lands,” said Alex Davis, the state’s assistant director of natural resources. “Do the energy companies end up buying most of the water? Do the municipalities end up competing with the energy companies for water? Could we have a South Platte River without agricultural production? The population is growing. Demands will increase and there’s not enough water to meet all the demands. There will be trade-offs.”[…]

“We’re losing the ability to produce food in this country,” Family Farm Alliance president Pat O’Toole said at a water congress session aimed at exploring options for water sharing. Environmental advocacy groups point out that recreation and tourism-related activities, which in 2009 injected $8.6 billion into Colorado’s economy, require healthy rivers and natural beauty, not new diversions for farming or cities…

Water squeeze

16 million: Number of acre-feet of water that Colorado’s rivers, on average, generate each year. Colorado is obligated, under various legal compacts and decrees, to let about two-thirds of that flow out of the state.

Where the water comes from

Yearly production of significant river basins:

South Platte: 400,000 acre-feet
Arkansas: 164,000 acre-feet
Colorado: 4.5 million acre-feet
Rio Grande: 320,000 acre-feet
Yampa: 530,000 acre-feet…

About 80 percent of Colorado’s river water flows on the western side of the state, where about 20 percent of the people live. About 20 percent of the water flows on the eastern side of the state, where 80 percent of the people live. The Western Slope contains 562,000 people and about 918,000 acres of irrigated agricultural land, where food is produced. The eastern half of the state contains 4.5 million people and about 2.5 million irrigated agricultural acres.

Meanwhile, the Henrylyn Irrigation district is gearing up to automate their system. More from Finley’s article:

Installation of a $220,000 system of measuring stations and computer controlled gates by the Henrylyn Irrigation District is slated to start this spring in the South Platte basin. Financed in part by the federal government, the automation is designed to save 4,000 acre-feet of water a year…

“What’s in it for us?” asked Rod Baumgartner, manager of Henrylyn’s network of 140 miles of canals and ditches, which irrigate 33,000 acres northeast of Denver. “If we can be more efficient, it means we’ll have that much more water for the farmers we serve.”

Moderator, Joe Frank asked the closing general session panel to relate what they had learned from the discussions, sessions and informal conversations that took place over the course of the convention.

Brad Udall repeated his belief that Australian water policy in the Murray-Darling basin shows that markets can be utilized to distribute water effectively and fairly. “We need more people at the table, not just lawyers and engineers,” he said.

“How can we turn our back on the most powerful tool we have?”

He listed some of the things he has been thinking about lately. First, he said, “We have to think long and hard about the number of water providers we have in our urban areas…We need to make sure that we get environmental issues right.”

Conservation is the “least heinous solution out there,” he said, and he favors a, “national water commission,” that will look at the problems and , “incorporate science into policy.”

Udall is also looking for ways to institute transmountain and trans-state markets.

Peter Sutherland (Water Resources, GHD, Sydney) said that Australia is, “still grappling with the same issues you [Colorado] are, how to get things right for the environment and the economy.”

“The water cycle doesn’t recognize state boundaries,” he said.

Mark Pifher (Aurora Water) cited the similarities between solutions in Australia and Colorado. Both, “have made a significant investment in facilities,” he said. Pifher praised Australia’s use of free markets.

I asked Scott Ashby about their market after the session.

He told me that allocations are based on historical diversion practices. Water owners can sell permanently or temporarily.

For example, the government can use the market to acquire environmental water for streamflow or wetlands protection.

Brad Udall moderated this session. The panel was made up of water managers from both Colorado and Australia.

Mark Waage from Denver Water started things off by stating that, instead of climate change, “I like to call it the unknown climate..It’s going to warm — the question is how high and how much.”

The dilemma comes from the, “overwhelming range of possible outcomes,” we’re, “waiting for actionable science,” he said.

Denver Water has chosen to use scenario planning in their approach. They put the drivers of change into a plan and build multiple possible outcomes for the future and, “try to find the ‘no regrets’ plan.”

He mentioned regional cooperation between Denver Water, Aurora Water and the South Metro Water Supply Authority where the WISE project is designed to leverage Aurora’s Prairie Waters Project to maximize the use of the three suppliers’ reusable water available in the South Platte basin.

He joked that in solving the problem, “We have to get rid of plants to make way for people.”

Mark Pascoe (CEO, National Water Centre, Queensland) said that South Queensland has spent more than $6 billion since the onset of the mega-drought. They are now looking at recycled water, groundwater and stormwater as future supply sources. Their research shows that in most years at least as much rain falls on the cities as they use. The current thinking is to store that stormwater in aquifers for later recovery.

Mark Pifher from Aurora Water noted that higher temperatures are being recorded around the globe and asked, “What does that mean for our regulatory regime?”

“If regulatory constraints are flexible we may not need changes in the statutes,” however, if the rules are subject to strict interpretation then, “we may be in trouble,” he said. He sees conflicts brewing around expansion of reuse programs, additional use of enhanced treatment technologies like Reverse Osmosis with its attendant problem of brine disposal and current wastewater treatment plant capacity limits.

Scott Ashby (Chief Executive, South Australia Department for Water) said that water suppliers up until recent history tended to, “manage on averages.” The drought in Australia has shown that climate change is occurring and that has spawned a change in the game plan as policy makers now manage the entire (Murray-Darling) basin as a whole.

Recent work on the Murray-Darling agreement recognizes that, “extremes are not extremes but the new norm,” he said. He cautioned that, “adherence to regulations can lead to a do nothing option so you have to have a far more flexible system,” to deal with the extremes.

Education is at the heart of South Australia’s water policy as well. They’ve created a strong education program in the schools — getting the young students on board so that when they reach teenage they are supporters of the policy. With education they try to, “keep inventing news things,” such as feedback on water bills about usage compared to the goals set by the authority.

This session dealt with the current state of the science around measuring snowpack and forecasting streamflow. It was a treat. It’s not often that so many experts currently working on this problem are assembled in one location to present overviews of their current research and thinking.

Jeff Deems (Research Scientist, NOAA Western Water Assessment and National Snow and Ice Data Center) started things off with a bit of a primer on snow albedo and the effects of dust on snowmelt and runoff. “Solar radiation is the big deal,” he said. He added that air temperature has an effect as well but it is much less than solar radiation. Dust decreases the snow albedo and increases the effects (melting) of solar radiation.

The dust that accumulates on the snow surface comes mainly during the spring and therefore impacts the melt season, he said. The snowpack melted off 28 days earlier than the historic norm in 2005, in 2009 it was 50 days earlier and last season the melt occurred 43 days ahead of the average. In the Colorado Rockies, “snow all gone,” is occurring 1 to 2 months earlier now.

Deems said that silt samples from high mountain lakes in the San Juans indicates a six-fold increase in dust in the mid-1800s. There was a drop in the increase of dust directly after the Taylor Grazing Act of 1934 was enacted but dust levels have climbed steadily since the late 1940s.

Desert soils in their natural state are armored by crusts, he said. These crusts are composed of biotic materials and shield the soil from wind erosion. Grazing animals and vehicle traffic break down the crusts leading to a 50-fold increase in sediment production when disturbed, according to Deems. Invasive species, primarily annuals, also add to the disturbance as less ground cover is often present in drought conditions, he said.

In the Colorado River Basin his team has estimated a 5% annual runoff decrease or 800,000 acre-feet. To put that into perspective the total is more than two times the annual Colorado River Compact allocation for Southern Nevada.

Deems hopes to see some sort of dust mitigation strategy put in place in northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico that would lessen the amounts of wind-borne silt making it’s way to the Rockies. [Click on the thumbnail graphic to the right for the satellite view of the April 29, 2009 dust event in Four Corners.] During the question and answer period afterward he was asked if any measures are in place and if they are getting results. His answer was no, but another panelist suggested that the Taylor Grazing Act was a good example of what could be done, citing the drop in dust accumulation after its enactment.

Noah Molotch (University of Colorado) explained his team’s work on using remote satellite sensing to measure snowpack. Their approach is to estimate snowpack by calculating backward from “snow all off” to arrive at a snowpack total. This is based on the assumption that snow persists where the accumulation is deepest.

Mark Williams (University of Colorado) emphasized that remote sensing can include a much larger area for measurement rather than the point values inherent in the NRCS’ Snotel network. They are, “able to measure snow-water equivalent across the landscape.”

Williams is working to get dust measuring devices across the southwest to gather data. A new site at Telluride is going to measure uranium and vanadium components in order to monitor the recently licensed uranium mill at Paradox.

David Clow (USGS) and his team are using chemistry and Principle Component Analysis to identify the increase in dust deposition along the Rockies. They collect and analyze snow samples from 57 sites ranging from Montana to New Mexico. The analysis shows an increase in calcium in the samples from the Colorado Rockies indicating an increase in dust over time, he said.

The first general session at the convention was a panel discussion of the similarities and differences in water management issues between Australia and Colorado. The Murray-Darling basin in Australia has been in a severe multi-year drought and the conditions there have many adjuncts here in Colorado. Australians are dealing with the gap between water supply and needs, just as Colorado is. Their situation is more pressing (until drought visits Colorado statewide again, as in 2002).

Australia’s approach to water management has changed while they have dealt with the drought there. One big difference that came out of the discussion is the heavy federal government involvement in allocating supplies. They do not rely on prior appropriation as we do in Colorado and they have developed water markets to grease the wheels of allocation and protect their economy.

Alex Davis (Colorado Water Conservation Board) said that Australia and Colorado have, “similar ways of attempting to meet the gap,” but that Australia’s system in more centralized, with a more fluid water market and that, “water for the environment is a significant driver.”

During the drought they’ve seen a 45% drop in streamflow, a significant reduction in yield and an increase in temperatures. One big policy difference, according to James Cameron (CEO, National Water Commission) is that the Australian government has a, “much more active involvement,” in the crisis where water matters are usually left to the states in the U.S. He added that, “It is hard to underestimate the importance of markets.”

Brad Udall (Western Water Assessment) said that some in the U.S. look down on federalism but that the Australian approach is not much different from Colorado’s Statewide Water Supply Initiative. He added, in talking about the water issues in the western U.S., that there is, “no way to do it at a state level.”

Towards the end of the session Udall said that his recent visit to Australia to study their response the the drought was, “a life changing experience,” that opened his eyes to new ways of thinking about water. He praised their decision making process for emphasizing their economy in all decisions.

The second general session dealt with the political issues of the day, nationally and statewide.

Floyd Ciruli said that, “This state [Colorado] has become the focal point in the 2012 presidential race.” He said that the U.S. Senate race in Colorado set the stage for Democrats. Michael Bennet was trailing in the polls late in the race but was able to turn things around by focusing on the wide differences he had with Ken Buck. Ciruli said that will be the strategy in many races across the country.

Right now the presidential race is wide open on the Republican side with early polling showing no candidate above 10% support.

The 2010 census resulted in Arizona, Nevada, Washington and Utah gaining congressional seats. It was the first time in California’s history that they will not gain a seat after the census. Most states that lost representatives as a result of the census tend to trend Democratic while the states that picked up seats trend Republican. Colorado will stay at seven representatives.

“Politically speaking the status quo will put us in a weaker position,” compared to downstream states, said Ciruli.

His recent polling tells him that, “Colorado residents value water.” Coloradans favor more storage and do not consider conservation as the sole solution to the water supply gap. Support for agriculture and meeting the threats to supply from out of state are also high on Coloradans radar, according to Ciruli.

Mike King (Colorado Department of Natural Resources Director) said that Colorado, “is going to be facing a daunting fiscal challenge,” in 2011 and 2012 but must, “remain open for business,” while protecting water and the environment. He plans to spearhead an evaluation of the most efficient and effective way for the agencies under his leadership to work together. He says they will, “streamline processes to work more effectively,” managing natural resources for the benefit of the economy, tourism and agriculture.

Here’s the release from the University of British Columbia via Science Daily:

University of British Columbia researchers have produced the first map of the world outlining the ease of fluid flow through the planet’s porous surface rocks and sediments.

The maps and data, published January 21 in Geophysical Research Letters, could help improve water resource management and climate modelling, and eventually lead to new insights into a range of geological processes.

“This is the first global-scale picture of near-surface permeability, and is based on rock type data at greater depths than previous mapping,” says Tom Gleeson, a postdoctoral researcher with the Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences.

Using recent world-wide lithology (rock type) results from researchers at the University of Hamburg and Utrecht University in the Netherlands, Gleeson was able to map permeability across the globe to depths of approximately 100 metres. Typical permeability maps have only dealt with the top one to two metres of soil, and only across smaller areas.

“Climate models generally do not include groundwater or the sediments and rocks below shallow soils,” says Gleeson. “Using our permeability data and maps we can now evaluate sustainable groundwater resources as well as the impact of groundwater on past, current and future climate at the global scale.”

A better understanding of large scale permeability of rock and sediment is critical for water resource management–groundwater represents approximately 99 per cent of the fresh, unfrozen water on earth. Groundwater also feeds surface water bodies and moistens the root zone of terrestrial plants.

“This is really an example of mapping research from a new, modern era of cartography,” says Gleeson. “We’ve mapped the world, peering well below the surface, without ever leaving our offices.”

The study’s maps include a global map at a resolution of 13,000 kilometres squared, and a much more detailed North American map at a resolution of 75 kilometres squared.

The research also improves on previous permeability databases by compiling regional-scale hydrogeological models from a variety of settings instead of relying on permeability data from small areas.

The paper’s authors include UBC Professors Leslie Smith and Mark Jellinek, as well as researchers from the US Geological Survey in Denver, Colorado, the University of Hamburg, and Utrecht University.

The work was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the German Science Foundation, and Utrecht University.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

Snowpack remains heavy in the northern mountains and much of the Western Slope, while the Arkansas River basin continues to move into severe drought. Statewide, snowpack remains at 125 percent of average, but it’s too early to make projections about water supply. The Arkansas River and Rio Grande basins hover near average precipitation, while the South Platte and southwest corner of the state are slightly above average. The Colorado River and its tributaries are well above normal…

To illustrate the importance of later spring snows, snowfall in the upper part of the Arkansas River basin was at 60 to 75 percent of peak so far, said Pat Edelmann, of the Pueblo office of the U.S. Geological Survey. The southern mountains are at only 20 to 30 percent of peak, while the Roaring Fork basin, which provides supplemental diversions to the Arkansas River, is at 50 to 75 percent of its peak…

Ski areas are reporting healthy bases of snow, with 74 inches at Wolf Creek, 64 inches at Monarch and 54 inches at Ski Cooper. Snotel sites operated by the Natural Resources Conservation Service show snow depths up to 7 feet at higher elevations, with 3 to 4 feet at most lower sites on the Western Slope. In the southern mountains, there is less than 2 feet in most places. Snow water equivalent, the moisture content of snow, is 8 to 36 inches in most places, but under 6 inches in the southern mountains…

Storage in upper reservoirs — Lake Pueblo, Clear Creek, Turquoise and Twin Lakes — is anywhere from 100 to 140 percent of average, which Trinidad Lake is only 70 percent of average and John Martin Reservoir is at 30 percent.

From The Yuma Pioneer (Tony Rayl):

The early-week moisture helped bring total precipitation so far in January to six-tenths of an inc (o.60 inch). The moisture has been widespread, bringing hope for this year’s winter wheat crop that had been struggling along under extremely dry conditions since being planted early last fall. The first 18 days of 2011 have been the wettest stretch in the region since early August, and has been the wettest early January since 2007.

From Circle of Blue: Water News (Peter Gleick):

Water Number: Three (3) definitions of “peak water.”

Peak Renewable Water: This is the limit reached when humans take the entire renewable flow of a river or stream for our use. Water is renewable, but there is a limit to how much can be used. Humans have already reached “peak renewable water” limits on the Colorado River. We use it all and can’t take any more. In fact, of course, we probably shouldn’t even take as much as we do, for ecological reasons (see “Peak Ecological Water” below). Increasingly, we are reaching peak renewable limits on many of our rivers and streams. The Yellow River in China no longer reaches the sea much of the year. The Aral Sea has been devastated because the entire flows of the Amu and Syr Darya rivers have been consumed. The Nile Delta is typically dry much of the year.

Peak Non-Renewable Water: While much of our water supply is renewable, there are “non-renewable” water sources as well, where our use of water depletes or degrades the source. This most typically takes the form of groundwater aquifers that we pump out faster than nature recharges them — exactly like the concept of “peak oil.” Over time, groundwater becomes depleted, more expensive to tap, or effectively exhausted. Central Valley aquifers are overpumped, unsustainably, to the tune of 1-to-2 million acre-feet a year. So are groundwater aquifers in India, China, the Great Plains, and other places. This cannot continue indefinitely — it runs into peak non-renewable water limits.

Peak Ecological Water: The third definition, and perhaps the most important (and difficult) one, is peak “ecological” water — the point where any additional human uses cause more harm (economic, ecological, or social) than benefit. We’re good at measuring the “benefits” of more human use of water (semiconductors manufactured, or food produced, or economic value generated), but we’re bad at measuring on an equal footing, the ecological “costs” or harm caused by that same use of water. As a result, species are driven to extinction, habitat is destroyed, water purification capabilities of marshes and wetlands are lost. For many watersheds around the world, we are reaching, or exceeding, the point of “peak ecological water.”