Summary
The bulk of the precipitation that occurred during the 168-hour (March 22-29) monitoring period did not fall in areas experiencing dryness (D0) or drought (D1 or worse). Some of the heaviest precipitation soaked non-drought areas of the lower Southeast and the Pacific Northwest. And, a late-season snowstorm from the central Rockies into northern Lower Michigan also fell mostly “between the drought lines.” However, some of the Southeastern rain chipped away at D0 across southern Georgia and northern Florida. And, stormy weather in the Northwest pushed far enough inland to further dent lingering drought. In contrast, breezy, mostly dry weather covered the central and southern Plains and the Southwest, leading to further expansion of D0 and D1. On the southern High Plains, a combination of weather extremes—including developing drought, hard freezes, and large temperature oscillations—led to an increase in stress on rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat…
Southern and Central Plains
Development of short-term dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) continued across Kansas, Oklahoma, northern and western Texas, eastern New Mexico, and southeastern Colorado. On March 22-23, the Anderson Creek fire rapidly spread across Woods County, Oklahoma, and Comanche and Barber Counties in Kansas, destroying 16 residences and more than two dozen structures, and charring an estimated 367,620 acres of grass, brush, and other vegetation. Cooler, more humid weather arrived by March 24, aiding wildfire containment efforts.
According to USDA, nearly half of the topsoil moisture was rated very short to short on March 27 in Kansas (48%) and Oklahoma (43%). In Texas, statewide topsoil moisture rated very short to short increased to 40% on March 27, up from 24% the previous week. And, topsoil moisture ranged from 68 to 70% very short to short in Texas’ three westernmost regions: Northern High Plains, Southern High Plains, and Trans-Pecos.
Amid the expanding D0 and D1, snow fell in some areas on March 26-27, totaling 3.5 inches in Wichita, Kansas, and 1.3 inches in Amarillo, Texas. However, the snow melted within hours, followed by a return to warm, windy conditions late in the drought-monitoring period.
In addition, D0 crept eastward into the middle Mississippi Valley. In areas where little precipitation has occurred since the beginning of 2016, signs of short-term dryness are becoming more apparent in the form of reduced streamflow, shrinking stock ponds, and dry topsoil. In Missouri, parts of which experienced record flooding as recently as late December, USDA reported that “some producers expressed concern about the lack of rain and dry conditions.” Missouri’s topsoil moisture was rated 20% very short to short on March 27…
Northern Plains
Significant precipitation remained mainly south of existing areas of dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) across the northern Plains. As a result, the depiction was mostly unchanged. However, there was a slight increase in D0 coverage in northeastern and south-central South Dakota, reflective of precipitation deficits at time periods out to 3 months. In Aberdeen, South Dakota, year-to-date precipitation through March 29 was less than half of normal (0.98 inch, or 47% of normal)…
California
A little more trimming of dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1) occurred across northwestern California, where water-storage and streamflow indicators continue to show that drought has been sharply scaled back or eliminated. For the remainder of the state, the return of dry weather meant that the drought depiction was effectively unchanged from last week as the traditional peak snowpack date of April 1 approaches. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snowpack currently stands at 24 inches, about 87% of average. However, the snowpack is 97% of average in the northern Sierra Nevada, but just 72% of average in the southern Sierra Nevada, reflective of the “northern” storm track that has been a hallmark of the 2015-16 winter wet season…
Northwest
Widespread storminess ended as the drought-monitoring period began. However, on the strength of earlier precipitation and diminishing drought impacts, the drought situation further improved across Oregon and environs. Specifically, drought was completely removed from Washington for the first time since December 31, 2013, whiles severe drought (D2) was significant scaled back across southeastern Oregon.
Late in the drought-monitoring period, stormy weather returned to portions of the interior Northwest. Small reductions in the coverage of dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) were noted across the northern Rockies. However, much of the storm unfolded across Wyoming and environs after the monitoring period ended on the morning of March 29 and will be reflected on next week’s map. On March 28, daily-record snowfall totals in Nevada included 13.0 inches in Ely and 6.8 inches in Reno. The following day in Wyoming, record-setting snowfall totals for March 29 reached 15.3 inches in Lander and 8.8 inches in Riverton…
Southwest
Dry weather dominated the Southwest, although some rain and snow showers fell across the northern half of the Four Corners States (e.g. portions of Colorado and Utah). Following last week’s large increases in coverage of Southwestern dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1), changes were mostly limited to a slight D0 expansion in the Four Corners region and some new D0/D1 coverage in southern and eastern New Mexico. Before being mostly (90%) contained, the Baker Canyon fire northeast of Douglas, Arizona, scorched nearly 8,000 acres of vegetation near the Arizona-New Mexico line. In addition, periods of wind weather continued to raise Southwestern dust, especially on March 22-23 and 29…
Looking Ahead
A storm system will cross the Great Lakes region on March 29, producing a mix of rain and snow. The storm’s trailing cold front will reach the Atlantic Seaboard on March 30, but should stall across the lower Southeast. Precipitation totals associated with the storm (and its cold front) could reach 2 to 5 inches—in the form of heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms—across the Southeast, and 1 to 2 inches along and north of the path of the low-pressure system. During the first few days of April, warm, dry weather will dominate the West, while a blast of cold air and snow showers will engulf the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. During the next 5 days, the southern Plains will remain mostly dry with rapid temperature fluctuations.
The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for April 5 – 9 calls for the likelihood of above-normal temperatures from the Pacific Coast to the Plains, while colder-than-normal conditions will dominate the eastern U.S.—especially the Northeast. Meanwhile, near- to below-normal precipitation in many areas of the country will contrast with expectations for wetter-than-normal weather across the Great Basin and neighboring areas, as well as the Great Lakes region and the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States.