From the National Weather Service Grand Junction Office:

SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET WILL DROP TO VALLEY BOTTOMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE UPPER FLOW WILL TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SNOWFALL FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

From the National Weather Service Pueblo Office:

At the present time, the low is forecast to move from southern Nevada Saturday morning, through the Four Corners region, and into eastern Colorado Saturday night. With this track, areas north of Highway 50 will likely feel the brunt of the system, with mainly windy conditions for the eastern plains south of Highway 50. With windy conditions expected across the region with this low, whiteout conditions could occur at some locations, including northern El Paso County Saturday night. Some uncertainties remain with the track of this low, which could either increase or decrease the chances for precipitation expected over southeast Colorado. Persons planning travel across the region this weekend should remain weather alert and listen for the latest statements or warnings on this developing winter weather situation.

From The Denver Post (Joey Bunch):

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch from Friday evening to Sunday evening for the West Elk and Sawatch mountains, the western San Juans, the Grand and Battlement mesas, as well as the Flat Top range…

The Colorado snowpack has improved slowly since the new year began, but remains at 74 percent statewide, including 69 percent in the Colorado River basin, home to some of the state’s best-known ski resorts and most important reservoirs. Southwest Colorado has a snowpack of 86 percent, and the South Platte River basin, which includes Denver, is at 59 percent, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Lakewood.

A significant weather change can be expected today across Northern Colorado. #COwx twitter.com/NWSBoulder/sta…

— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) February 9, 2013

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

Farmers and ranchers can make it through a drought by planning ahead, managing resources and making timely decisions. That advice was given to about 150 people who attended the Arkansas Valley Farm, Ranch, Water Symposium and Trade Show Thursday.

“It took me four years to learn what I should have learned in one,” said Huerfano County rancher Grady Grissom. Grissom started the Rancho Largo Cattle Co. in 1995 with a business plan designed to maximize herd size in order to cover his costs.

Meanwhile, if you have water, the good news is that commodity prices for farm products are expected for the growing season. Here’s an report from Matt Hildner writing for The Pueblo Chieftain:

While drought conditions are expected to continue to plague the state this summer, farmers and ranchers who can withstand them will likely see high commodity prices. James Pritchett, an agricultural economist at Colorado State University­Fort Collins, reviewed the economic impacts of the drought and discussed potential impacts during a Wednesday session of the Southern Rocky Mountain Agricultural Conference and Trade Fair. “Farm revenues are going to hit record levels this year on the strength of higher prices,” he said. “So if you have a crop — and not everybody does — and you’re able to stay in production, you’re going to make some money.”

Pritchett and a pair of colleagues have yet to wrap up their surveys on how producers did in 2012 but based on preliminary results, he said operations with lower debt ratios would be in the best position to benefit from high prices for many commodities.

“I think it’s the high-debt folks, I think it’s the dry­land crop producers, I think it’s the cow­-calf producers — those are the ones that are experiencing some of the most difficulties,” he said. His results from 2011 found the San Luis Valley had an above­average year and endured only $4.7 million in drought­related losses. “There weren’t really reductions in irrigation yields and there wasn’t a big change in harvested acres versus planted acres,” he said.

That year also saw little impact on Main Street businesses dealing with agriculture, but he thinks that will change as the drought persists. “In 2011, I don’t think anybody saw the drought coming,” he said. “But if you expect the drought to come, you do adjust your input purchases.”

That could mean farmers and ranchers spend less on pesticides, herbicides and farm equipment.

From Steamboat Today (Tom Ross):

Time is growing short if the snowpack — water content in the standing snow — surrounding Steamboat is to its historic norm by the end of the season, Mage Hultstrand, of the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Denver, said Thursday. She said February and March typically combine to provide 36 percent of annual snowpack, with April contributing another 3 percent. With current snowpack in the combined Yampa/White River basin standing at 47 percent of the annual peak, mountains in the area would have to see 53 percent of the annual snowpack accumulate between now and the second week in April to reach the average.

“The average peak there is on April 11,” Hultstrand said. “To get there in the next two months would take well above-average snowfall for February and March.” Hultstrand is the agency’s assistant snow survey supervisor.

The NRCS reported Feb. 1 that despite heavy snowfall in late January, Colorado’s snowpack was at 72 percent of normal for the date and 10 percent lower than where it stood at the same time in the drought winter of 2011-12.

The combined Yampa/White river basin, which includes most of Routt County, is doing a little better, according to the NRCS, at 77 percent of average and 115 percent of last year’s levels. Another encouraging sign is that reservoir storage across the twin basin currently stands at 103 percent of average for the date.

Focusing on specific locations in the Yampa River Basin, the snow measuring station at 9,400 feet on the west side of Rabbit Ears Pass was showing 11 inches of water contained in 43 inches of snow Thursday, or 75 percent of average for the date. Those 11 inches of water also represent 42 percent of peak snowpack (water content); Rabbit Ears typically peaks at 26.1 inches of moisture April 28.

At the Tower site at 10,500 feet on Buffalo Pass, there currently is 69 inches of snow on the ground containing 19.2 inches of moisture. The water content at the Tower site, which typically holds some of the most robust snowpack in the state, is just 66 percent of the average of 29.1 inches for the date and 37 percent of the seasonal peak.

From the Northern Colorado Business Report (Steve Lynn):

Coming off a pitiful 2012 snowpack, Northern Colorado farmers have worried for months about what this year’s snowpack will portend. Snowpack in the South Platte River Basin hovered at 60 percent of average earlier this month. It has reached only 70 percent in the has reached only 70 percent in the Colorado River Basin.

The National Resource Conservation Service said recently that it expects below-average water supplies this spring and summer in the West, with Colorado especially hard hit. Cities are weighing a range of drought restrictions.

From the Northern Colorado Business Report (Steve Lynn):

The cities of Fort Collins, Greeley and Loveland are considering new restrictions on water use in response to a drought expected to last at least through summer…

In Fort Collins, City Manager Darin Atteberry has the authority to enact water restrictions, though the City Council reviewed the matter earlier this week. The city’s two main sources of water, the Colorado-Big Thompson Project and Poudre River, likely will yield less water this year because of the drought as well as High Park Fire destruction. The city is considering Level 1 water restrictions, which allows watering only two days per week and on a schedule. The restrictions bar watering between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. and prohibit watering of surfaces such as sidewalks and patios except as necessary for health and safety. The last time the city enacted water restrictions was a decade ago.

Greeley has had water restrictions in place since 1907. It normally only allows watering just three days per week, and no watering between noon and 5 p.m. The city will decide whether to enact tighter drought restrictions in April, when Northern Water issues its quotas, said Jon Monson, director of Water and Sewer. Greeley, like the city of Fort Collins, is concerned that it may have to curb its consumption of Poudre River water because of debris-filled runoff during spring, he added.

City of Loveland officials also are discussing water restrictions, said Gretchen Stanford, customer relations manager for the city’s utility. But like Greeley, Loveland is waiting for Northern Water to make a move. However, Loveland considers itself well-positioned for tight water supplies this year, considering it receives water from Green Ridge Glade Reservoir in addition to the Colorado-Big Thompson project, Stanford said. But next year could pose a problem if the drought wears on. “If we have the same exact summer as we had last year, we would be concerned about 2014,” she said.

Click on the thumbnail graphic for the snowpack map by basins. There is an ugly red splat over the upper South Platte River.

Click here to download a copy. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

January brought cold temperatures and little moisture to Colorado until the very last week when a significant snow storm hit most of the state. Areas near Steamboat Springs and Durango received upwards of 18 inches during the last week of the January, yet due to the dry start to the month, statewide snowpack ended up being only marginally better than the previous month. Increased snowpack percentages across southwestern Colorado were offset by significant decreases in the northeastern basins and all major basins remain below normal for this time of year. Consecutive months of below average snowpack accumulation are statistically decreasing the possibility of reaching normal conditions by April. Last year’s below average snowpack did not offer any buffer to our current situation. Currently, reservoir storage volumes across the state are at 69 percent of average and 66 percent of last year’s storage. The February 1 streamflow forecasts reflect the below average snowpack conditions throughout the state. The San Miguel, Animas, Dolores and San Juan basins are the only areas in the state where forecasts for April to July runoff volumes improved this month. Water users in all basins should start planning for below average surface water supplies this season. The potential for shortages this season is great.

Snowpack

Snowfall across Colorado was nearly nonexistent for most of January. During this time snowpack percentages were decreasing daily as the gap between current conditions and long-term normals widened. The situation began to improve during late January when storm systems brought much needed moisture to the state. The storms were not enough to tip the scales to normal, but they did help halt the downward slide. Statewide snowpack was at 72 percent of normal as of February 1. The basins that benefited the most from these storms were the basins in the southwest region of the state. The snowpack in the Upper Rio Grande basin increased from from 65 percent of normal on January 1 to 78 percent of normal on February 1. The combined San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan basins jumped 18 percentage points in January; from 70 percent of normal to 88 percent of normal on February 1. The Arkansas and Gunnison River basins each showed a nominal increase in snowpack percentage compared to last month. The remaining basins in the state showed an overall decline in the percent of normal from what was reported on January 1. The South Platte basin had the largest departure from last month’s report. The snowpack in this basin dropped 13 percentage points this past month, declining from 67 percent of normal on January 1 to just 54 percent of normal February 1.

Precipitation

Precipitation across the state during the month of January was 83 percent of average. Statewide totals were influenced by above average monthly totals recorded in the Upper Rio Grande and the combined basins of the San Miguel, San Juan, Dolores and Animas Rivers. During January the Upper Rio Grande basin received precipitation that was 107 percent of average for this time of year and precipitation in the southwest basins was 120 percent of average. The Gunnison basin came in at 90 percent of average for the month. The remaining basins received between 69 and 72 percent of average precipitation during January with the exception of the South Platte Basin. The South Platte basin recorded just 50 percent of the average precipitation for the month. Year to date precipitation for the state remains below average for this time of year; as of February 1 total precipitation was just 72 percent of average.

Reservoir Storage

Due to last winter’s poor snowpack, reservoir storage volumes continue to track below average levels. At the end of January reservoirs within the state were storing 2,311,000 acre feet of water. At this same time in 2012, reservoirs in the state held 3,606,000 acre feet. Below average storage volumes were reported at the end of January in the Arkansas, Gunnison, Colorado, South Platte, Upper Rio Grande and the combined San Juan, Animas, Dolores, and San Miguel basins. The greatest departure from average was in the Upper Rio Grande basin which reported its reservoirs volumes at just 51 percent of average. The Yampa and White River basins reported reservoir storage to be 103 percent of average and 85 percent of last year’s storage. The storage in the Yampa and White basins may currently be above average, but these basins have the smallest reservoir capacity in the state.

Streamflow

Streamflow forecasts across the state reflect the below normal snowpack conditions measured on February 1. Forecasts for all points across Colorado are calling for below normal seasonal streamflow volumes this spring and summer. The lowest forecasts, as a percent of normal, occur in the Arkansas and South Platte basins. Forecasts in these basins are less than 65 percent of normal and as low as 45 percent of normal for the April to July time period. Forecasts for the Colorado, Gunnison, and Yampa and White basins have declined from those issued last month; expected streamflow volumes in these basins generally range from 50 to 70 percent of normal. As a result of the large snowfall amounts received in January, current runoff forecasts in the Upper Rio Grande and the combined San Juan, Animas, Dolores and San Miguel basins have improved somewhat from last month’s predictions. It is important to note that at this point in the season the mountains have typically accumulated 60 percent of their annual snowpack in Colorado. The potential for recovering to normal conditions at this point in the season is not promising, but it is possible if we see exemplary spring conditions.

Click here to read the latest diagnostic discussion from NOAA. Here’s an excerpt:

During January 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, although below-average sea surface temperatures
(SST) prevailed across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. While remaining below average, a high degree of variability in the weekly Niño 3 and 3.4 indices was apparent during the month. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) was also below-average, largely reflecting negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. At the same time, positive anomalies increased and expanded eastward to the central Pacific by late January. The variability in both the ocean and atmosphere was enhanced during January, at least partially due to a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Consequently, the location of the MJO was reflected in the monthly averages of wind and convection. Anomalous upper-level winds were westerly over the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific, while low-level winds were near average. Relative to December 2012, the region of enhanced convection shifted eastward and became more prominent over Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific. Despite these transient features contributing to cool conditions, the collective atmospheric and oceanic system reflects ENSO-neutral.

From KOAA.com (Bill Folsom):

For the Arkansas River Basin, which is a big water contributor to southern Colorado, the snowpack is more than 40% behind where it needs to be. “Right now everything looks pretty bleak. Everybody is seeing the really low numbers, the really low snowpack and expecting very low run-off,” said [Abby Ortega].

Water managers with Colorado Springs Utilities are scheduled to present a water restriction plan next week. It is up to the Colorado Springs City Council to make a decision.

From The Mountain Mail (James Redmond):

Typically this time of year the mountains receive an inch of moisture a week, yet weekly totals through Jan. 23 mostly ranged from 0.1 to 1 inch along the Western Slope, with a few isolated pockets receiving 1 to 2 inches, the Water Availability Task Force’s January drought update reported…

Despite beneficial moisture in December that boosted snowpack to 70 percent of normal, a very dry January has resulted in snowpack declines in all of the state’s major river basins since Jan. 1. In Salida January yielded only 0.01 inch of precipitation throughout the entire month. January usually has an average precipitation of 0.33 inch, historical Mountain Mail records show…

If the Chaffee County area has a drought this year similar to last year’s conditions, “that would be a record,” Terry Scanga, Upper Arkansas Water Conservancy District manager, said Jan. 31. This area has never seen two back-to-back drought years of last year’s severity, he said. If the drought continues, irrigation rights will see the impact first, probably near July…

For the first time in 9 years, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to dominate through the winter months, which means neither El Niño nor La Niña is influencing weather patterns. Without their influence, it is difficult to determine when the current drought regime will be broken in Colorado, the Water Availability Task Force report said. While a strong intraseasonal event could help transition back to El Niño by spring, it could also bring additional moisture before then, Klaus Wolter reported Jan. 23 to the Colorado Water Conservation Board Water Availability Task Force. “There is currently no capability to predict such an event more than a week or two in advance. There is nothing on the horizon for now, despite one brief flicker of hope earlier this month,” he said…

Positive AMO and negative PDO values go a long way toward explaining our dry fall and early winter. Given the continuing PDO-AMO setup for drought, pessimism remains justified for at least the next few months, he reported.

From the Summit County Citizens Voice (Bob Berwyn):

January 2012 will go down as one of the driest Januaries on record at the official National Weather Service site in town, where long-time observer Rick Bly measured just 6.55 inches of snow for the month. Bly said that total was one of the five lowest January readings in the books. Going back more than 100 years, the average January snowfall in town is nearly two feet. The little bit of snow that did fall during the month was also excruciatingly dry. Bly said the snow-water equivalent was just 0.11 inches, compared to the historic average of 1.53 inches. That means precipitation for the water year to-date (starting Oct. 1) is just 60 percent of average.

Snowfall for the year to-date is also lagging well behind last year, at 43.85 inches. Normal for this time of year is 78 inches. Last winter, Bly had tallied 62 inches by this time of year…

The best hope of getting out of the current drought conditions is for a super-wet February or a March miracle, which isn’t out of the question — the early 2000s drought was at least partly busted by a mid-March storm that dropped more than seven feet of snow on some parts of the Colorado mountains. But an average February (23.5 inches in Breckenridge) wouldn’t even bring the snowpack back to normal, and have there’s no guarantee that late winter will deliver relief.

Meanwhile, New Mexico snowpack is in very bad shape. Here’s a report from John Fleck writing for the Albuquerque Journal. Here’s an excerpt:

Farmers who depend on the state’s rivers for their irrigation water are preparing for the worst after new forecast numbers call for abysmal runoff for a third year in a row. “The bottom line is, that sucks,” said Phil King, a New Mexico State University professor who serves as an adviser to the Elephant Butte Irrigation District, after seeing the latest forecast for runoff headed his way. The agency provides water for farmers in Doña Ana County, New Mexico’s largest agricultural producer.

While there is still uncertainty about how wet or dry the next few months will be, the mostly likely runoff, if we get normal precipitation through spring, is 39 percent of the long-term average flowing into Elephant Butte Reservoir, according to forecasters at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In a normal year, the Elephant Butte Irrigation District begins running that water through its system as early as late February, with an irrigation season that runs through October. This year, farmers shouldn’t expect to see any irrigation water until the first of June, and the district could run out by the end of July, King said Wednesday.

@cprpanoka reports snowpack along Front Range is 54% of average. That’s the fourth lowest in 32 years. #colorado #frontrange

— Pat Mack (@CPRMack) February 8, 2013

From The Grand Junction Sentinel (Dennis Webb):

Late-January precipitation in Colorado salvaged the month, but statewide snowpack budged little from where it was at the year’s start, the Natural Resources Conservation Service said this week.

Mostly dry, high-pressure weather systems persisted for much of the month before the arrival of a storm that particularly benefited southwest Colorado, the agency said. As of the start of this month, the statewide snowpack was 72 percent of normal and 90 percent of the same time last year, which ended with snowpack well below average.

Statewide snowpack had been 70 percent of average Jan. 1.

The recent moisture boosted snowpack in the combined San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan basins to 88 percent of normal, up from 70 percent a month earlier. The Rio Grande and Arkansas basins also saw gains in snowpack. “With the storms focused mainly in the south, the northern portion of the state saw snowpack percentages remain constant or decline during January,” the NRCS said.

The South Platte fared the worst, dropping 13 percent, to 54 percent of normal, the state’s lowest. The Colorado basin was at 67 percent at the month’s start, which is 89 percent of the same time last year. The Gunnison started the month at 75 percent of average.

“This recent snowpack data directly reflects what the state can expect for surface water supplies this coming spring and summer,” the NRCS said in its release. “Current streamflow forecasts continue to point towards well below normal runoff volumes in all the major river basins in Colorado. Adding to this bleak water supply outlook, reservoir storage across the state remains below average. Unless Colorado sees weather patterns that bring above average snowfall and precipitation to the state over these next few months, it is not likely that there will be much relief from the current drought conditions.”

Statewide reservoir storage is at 70 percent of average, and 63 percent of the same time last year. The Colorado basin’s storage is at 67 percent of average and 59 percent of last year. For the Gunnison, those figures are 72 and 61 percent, respectively. The San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan basins are still at just two-thirds of average.

The National Integrated Drought Information System said in its weekly report, “Though recent beneficial snowfall has accumulated in the higher elevations of southwest (Colorado), benefits may only be short term. These areas are still running large precipitation deficits from last year.”

From The Delta County Independent (Hank Lohmeyer):

Surface Creek Valley water managers began looking ahead during last year’s dry spell and made plans to help ensure there will be supplies of water available for domestic providers if a second low-snowpack year is in store for 2013.

During last week’s water forums in Orchard City and Cedaredge, Austin Keiser, president of the Grand Mesa Water Conservancy District board, announced that the district had held back reservoir water for domestic use this year if needed. Keiser explained to the Delta County Independent that a survey of domestic providers last year determined they might expect to draw 480 acre feet from their reservoir reserves on Grand Mesa during 2013. So, to provide an additional backstop for that use, the district has held 500 acre feet in reservoir storage as a down payment against the chance reservoirs may not fill with snowpack runoff this year.

The announcement may help quell any concerns the valley’s domestic water users have about available supply during the coming summer months.

From the Glenwood Springs Post Independent (Scott Condon):

As of Wednesday, the snowpack at the headwaters of the Roaring Fork River east of Aspen was at 50 percent of average, the conservation service reported. For the Roaring Fork River basin as a whole, which includes the Fryingpan and Crystal river drainages, the snowpack is 68 percent of average. The highest snowpack within the Roaring Fork drainage is at McClure Pass and North Lost Trail outside of Marble, according to the conservation service. The snowpack at McClure Pass is 83 percent of average while it is 80 percent at North Lost Trail. This winter is starting to make last winter look good, at least at the headwaters of the Roaring Fork River. The snowpack east of Aspen on Wednesday was only 71 percent of the level on the same date last year…

Two of the traditionally snowiest months for Colorado are still to come, but time is running out. Colorado’s mountains usually accumulate about 60 percent of their snowpack by Feb. 1, Mage Hultstrand, assistant snow survey supervisor for the conservation service, said Wednesday. Another 20 percent of the snowpack usually accumulates in February and 20 percent in March. The below average snowpack produces a “bleak” water supply outlook, the conservation service said. “Current streamflow forecasts continue to point towards well below normal runoff volumes in all the major river basins in Colorado,” according to the agency. Reservoir storage across the state is below average, the agency noted. Ruedi Reservoir was 61 percent full Wednesday and Fryingpan Valley has weak snowpack levels.

From The Greeley Tribune (Eric Brown):

A federal agency this week released statistics detailing the low reservoir levels in the South Platte basin, but one regional water expert had a simpler way of getting the point across. “Compared to how much water we had in storage at this time last year, we’re now short two entire Horsetooth reservoirs,” said Brian Werner, public information officer at the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District in Berthoud, referring to the 157,000­acre­feet bucket near Fort Collins.

Werner then used a simple adjective to describe the region’s water supplies. “It’s ugly,” he said of the situation facing many, including the Northern Water district, whose Colorado­Big Thompson Project provides supplemental water to more than 640,000 acres of irrigated farm and ranch land and about 850,000 people in northeastern Colorado, including Greeley residents. Werner made those remarks Wednesday — a day after the Natural Resources Conservation Service released statewide reservoir­storage numbers and snowpack figures for Feb. 1. According to the numbers, the South Platte River basin’s collective reservoir storage was 82 percent of the historic average for Feb. 1, and just 67 percent of what it was a year earlier.

While the situation isn’t great, it’s not dire, some local water officials say. Eric Reckentine, deputy director of water resources for the city of Greeley, said Greeley’s water storage is still “adequate to meet demand this year.”

But without abundant snowfall in the mountains in the near future, there will be challenges. The region’s reservoirs filled to high levels following the historic snow year of 2011, but much of those supplies were used up last year as northern Colorado, like much of the U.S., went into drought. With Mother Nature offering little moisture, cities and farmers relied on stored water. Now — in addition to having the equivalent of two less reservoirs to work with compared to last year — snowfall in the mountains isn’t on pace to replenish the area’s reservoirs when spring runoff rolls around.

NRCS reports showed that snowpack in the South Platte basin — which melts in the spring to refill northern Colorado cities’ reservoirs and farmers’ irrigation ditches — was 54 percent of the historic average, and 58 percent of where it was at this time last year. In the Colorado River basin, where the Front Range and other northern Coloradans also get some of their water supplies, snowpack was 67 percent of average, and reservoir storage, too, was 67 percent of historic average.

Werner, with Northern Water for more than 30 years, said if snowfall is limited for the remainder of the winter and spring, Northern Water officials — who will set a quota in April to determine how much of their water can be used — will be in a tough spot. Spring planting for farmers begins in April, and if it’s dry then and looking to stay that way, farmers will likely want a high quota set, Werner noted, to ensure they have enough water for the growing season.

At the same time, though, Werner said Northern Water officials will have to keep an eye on the future, and make sure some of their stored water will still be around the next year if drought persists. “Bottom line; we just can’t take many more 2012s” Werner said.

Like Werner, other water officials — like Harold Evans, chairman for the city of Greeley Water and Sewer
Board, and Lynn Fagerberg, a farmer near Eaton who serves as board president for a pair of irrigation ditch companies — are in wait­and­see mode until April. “After March, you really have a good idea of what you’re going to be dealing with the rest of the year,” Evans said. “Right now, we’re hoping for big snowstorms that can get us back up to normal.”

From The Chaffee County Times (Casey Kelly):

From January through December last year, Chaffee County only recorded a total of 16.7 inches of snow. That isn’t even half of the 44.9 inches the area receives on average each year.

Pasture just north of Rocky Ford.#Drought rivals the mid 1950s & is likely to get worse before it gets better #cowx twitter.com/BrianBledsoe/s…

— Brian Bledsoe (@BrianBledsoe) February 8, 2013

Click on the thumbnail graphics for a trip down memory lane. I’ve posted the snowpack graphs for the South Platte River Basin from yesterday and for water year 2003. Check out the boost in snowpack from the record-setting snowstorm that started around St. Patrick’s day in 2003. Reservoir storage was very low after the 2002 drought episode and many water suppliers talk about how that one storm saved the day.

From the Boulder Daily Camera (William Callahan):

With only 0.27 inches of moisture and just 3.7 inches of snow, Boulder was way off normal levels. But 25 other Januarys had less than 4 inches of snow, and 36 other Januarys had less than 0.3 inches of moisture. Just recently, January 2003 had 0.5 inches of snow and 0.9 inches of moisture. So a dry January is seldom noteworthy. However, this year is different because its very dry January was preceded by just 20.4 inches of snow during the last half of 2012. Thus, the seasonal snow total now stands at 24.1 inches, which is just more than 50 percent of normal. Last winter had little snow, but reservoirs remained full. The fear has been that the reservoirs would be drawn down throughout 2012 and that if this winter is also dry, they won’t be replenished, intensifying Colorado’s drought.

At the beginning of January, the statewide snowpack was 70 percent of average, and the South Platte River Basin stood at 67 percent. By Jan. 23, the statewide average had dropped to 61 percent, and the South Platte to 55 percent. At that time, the drought monitor showed 13.5 percent of Colorado at the highest level, 5 (exceptional), 45 percent at level 4 (extreme) and the rest of the state at level 3 (severe). Heavy snows in the mountains during the last three days of the month pushed the statewide to 75 percent, and the South Platte to 57 percent. The U.S. seasonal (through April 30) drought outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has Colorado in the middle of a 12-state area where drought is expected to “persist or intensify.”

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

No water rationing is planned in Pueblo unless drought conditions severely affect flows in the Arkansas River next summer.

The Pueblo Board of Water Works initiated outdoor watering restrictions in 2002, but then increased the amount of water to avoid rationing. The strategy paid off in 2012, a year that was nearly as dry as 2002, because Puebloans did not see rationing.

“The board has made an investment of its customers’ money to allow them to use the water when it’s dry,” said Terry Book, executive director of the water board. “If we put in restrictions, we have to cut off extraterritorial water, and it just snowballs.”

The water board’s budget also is predicated on a certain level of use. Ratepayers are seeing the
benefit of greater-­than-anticipated water use last year in lower bills in 2013. The revenue is necessary to operate, maintain and improve the water system, Book said. “We still encourage customers to use water wisely,” he added.

Pueblo water customers have reduced the amount of water used per account by about 17 percent since 2002, an earlier study showed.

The trigger for restrictions would come if Pueblo’s 1874 water right fell out of priority, as it did in 2002. Water rights are determined by court decrees that recognize when water was first put to beneficial use. Some ditch companies — notably Bessemer Ditch and the High Line Canal — have rights senior to Pueblo’s 1874 decree. Pueblo also has several senior rights, but not with large amounts of water.

Last year, the water board used some of its water in storage to meet heavy demand in late summer and early fall. However, the board still has 27,000 acre­feet in storage and expects to accumulate more during runoff. The board has cut off one-­year leases that provide supplemental agricultural water in 2013 to build up storage.

Here’s a report about the drought panel at last week’s Colorado Water Congress Annual Convention, from Chris Woodka writing for The Pueblo Chieftain:

When customers’ water is about to be cut off, the first impulse might be to use even more.
The solution for one water provider: Normal or nothing. “When we told them we were about to move to the next level, people used even more water,” said Diane Johnson of the Eagle River Water Conservancy District.

She was part of a panel of water providers who shared the lessons learned from the 2002 drought at last week’s meeting of the Colorado Water Congress. Stacey Chesney of Denver Water and Russ Sands of Boulder also spoke. The drought conditions of 2002 are similar to 2012 and could continue this year. Some cities already are in or considering outside watering restrictions.

The Pueblo Board of Water Works is not planning restrictions at this time. In general, the state is better prepared to deal with a short­-term drought, the panel agreed. “Early in 2002, we did not realize how bad it would get,” Chesney said. Following 2002, Denver pushed a goal of 22 percent reduction of per capita water use by 2016 and already has seen a 20 percent reduction, she said.

Click here to go to the Western Water Assessment website. Click through for all the cool graphics. Read ’em and weep if you’re in Colorado. From the website:

Highlights

January precipitation was patchily distributed across the region; western Colorado, southeastern Utah, and north-central Wyoming ended up wetter than average, with most other areas drier than average

After storms in the last week of January roughly balanced out dry conditions the rest of the month, snowpacks remain below-average across Colorado and southeast Wyoming, and near- or above-average in Utah and the rest of Wyoming

The January 1 forecasts for spring-summer streamflow call for below-average flows in nearly all basins in the region; the February 1 forecasts that have been released thus far show a similarly dry outlook

The NOAA CPC seasonal climate outlooks, as well as the “SWcast”, continue to show a slight dry “tilt” for late winter and spring precipitation for the southern half of our region, but the one-month outlook for February has a wet tilt based largely on the storms forecasted for the next week

January Precipitation and Temperatures, and Current Drought

January saw a very uneven distribution of precipitation across our region, in both space and time. The first three weeks of January were quite dry, with two systems in the last week generating most of the month’s moisture. Most mountain areas in western and central Colorado ended up with above-average precipitation, as did eastern Utah and north-central Wyoming. Drier-than-average conditions predominated in southern Wyoming and, yet again, in eastern Colorado. The HPRCC Water Year Precipitation map shows that while January aided some areas, most of the region remains drier than average since October 1. Southeastern Colorado is still the driest area in the region, with less than 50% of average October–January precipitation.

Perhaps the most notable aspect of January’s weather was the cold anomaly over most of Utah and portions of western Colorado, with monthly temperatures more than 10°F below average. Intrusions of Arctic air were followed by upper-level ridging and calm winds, leading to persistent surface inversions. Moab, Utah ended up with a record-cold January monthly average of 8.6°F, or 18°F below normal, and more than 5°F below the previous record. In northern Utah, a particularly strong inversion caused a serious air pollution episode from about the 18th to the 26th.

The latest US Drought Monitor, representing conditions as of January 29, shows very little change in drought conditions since January 1. The vast majority of the region is still classified in severe (D2) or worse drought: Colorado, 100% (up from 95%); Wyoming, 86% (unchanged), and Utah, 66% (up from 64%).

Current Snowpack and Streamflows

The dry first three weeks of January saw regional snowpacks decline with respect to the typical trajectory—especially in Colorado, where this slippage was dramatic. But the final, snowy, week salvaged the month for most basins, bringing conditions close to where they were on January 1 in terms of percent of average. The NRCS Current Basin Snowpack map on February 1 shows that Colorado and southeastern Wyoming basins remain well below to below average. In the rest of Wyoming and in Utah, snowpacks are generally near-average or slightly above average. In Utah’s Wasatch Range, the mountain snowpack slipped to about 85% of average even as the urban areas and foothills experienced above-average snowfall, thanks to “upside-down” storms. The February 1 basinwide snowpack for the Upper Colorado River above Lake Powell was 84% of average, compared to 86% of average on January 1.

In the maps of current streamflows in the three states, most gages are ice-affected and not reporting, as is normal for this time of year. The Green River near Greendale, UT gage, was in the 40th percentile, at 81% of the median flow for February 1.

Spring-Summer Streamflow Forecasts

See the previous briefing for details of the January 1 streamflow forecasts for spring-summer 2013. The general outlook for the region is drier than average, reflecting the snowpack anomalies. The next (February 1) streamflow forecast map should be posted by NRCS (and on the Dashboard) around February 10th; we expect no major changes in the regional outlook from the January 1 forecasts. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) has released their official February 1 forecasts here; there are slight improvements in the forecasted flows for the San Juan and Uncompahgre basins compared with January 1, but the forecasts are generally lower elsewhere in the Upper Colorado Basin and eastern Great Basin. IMPORTANT NOTE: While NRCS and NOAA continue to collaborate on streamflow forecasts, the forecast values are no longer being strictly coordinated between NRCS and some of the RFCs, including the CBRFC.

Seasonal Climate and Drought Forecasts

The latest monthly Climate Outlooks for February, released on January 31 by NOAA CPC, shows a wet tilt for most of Utah and western Colorado through February, reflecting the weather model guidance showing a tendency towards troughs (= moisture) over that area in the first half of February. It is also consistent with the wet forecast for our region seen in the 5-day QPF for the February 6–11 period. The latest seasonal Climate Outlooks released on January 17 by NOAA CPC continue to show a slight tilt towards drier-than-average conditions for the late winter and spring in the southern portion of our region, with the area of dry tilt covering more of Colorado and Utah than the previous outlooks. The CPC Climate Outlooks continue to show enhanced odds for above-normal temperatures for the winter and spring seasons, consistent with the long-term trend towards warmer conditions. The latest CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook released January 17 projects that the drought conditions across our region will persist, through at least April 2013, with a slight change from previous outlooks, in that some improvement is expected in far northern Wyoming.

The latest PSD Precipitation Forecast Guidance (“SWcast”), released January 23 for January–March 2013 conditions, continues to forecasts a dry tilt in late winter for most of Utah and Colorado, with the strongest tilt towards dry conditions (>10%) in north-central Colorado—though the model skill is marginal in northern Colorado for this season. A modest tilt towards wet conditions is forecasted for far northern Utah. Overall, this dry outlook for Utah and Colorado is mostly unchanged from the forecast made in November, and is consistent with a continued cold North Pacific (PDO-) in conjunction with a warm North Atlantic (AMO+).

As has been the case since last fall, the seasonal forecasts are not being influenced by ENSO, since the ENSO indicators continue to show ENSO-neutral conditions—though tipping most recently towards La Niña conditions—and the models in IRI’s mid-January ENSO Prediction Plume show a consensus towards ENSO-neutral conditions continuing through next summer.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

Winter water storage was half of average at the end of January as drought conditions deepened. Under a water court decree, the winter water program allows nine large ditches, as well as two smaller ones, to store water in the winter months for use later in the irrigation season. Storage began Nov. 15 and ends March 15.

But snowpack in the Arkansas River basin is at only 64 percent of average, while stream flows have been at subpar levels since June. A little more than 45,000 acre-­feet of water were in storage at the end of January, compared with a 20-year average of more than 94,000 acre-­feet at the same time over the last 20 years. Last year at this time there were about 86,000 acre­-feet in storage.

“It’s a mess. It’s not good,” said Lamar farmer Dale Mauch, who also sits on the Fort Lyon Canal board. “We’ve been battling this since 2002, and we’re looking at running out of water by June 1 if things don’t improve.”

In a normal year, the Fort Lyon Canal — the largest user of winter water — would wait until river flows drop in mid­ June to begin running water stored in lakes. Last year, in order to start crops, all of the water was run early and gone by June 1.

The drought, now in its third year, has left soil drier than usual as well, meaning the water won’t go as far. An average or wet spring could improve the outlook, because 2012 started better than 2013, until snow started melting off in March, rather than May.

“The good news is that a storm could get here by the weekend, and it could be a big one,” Mauch said. “You’ve got to have hope.”

From the Cortez Journal (Michael Maresh):

The nearly two inches of rain Montezuma County received from Jan. 25-28 had a positive impact on the high country snowpack, a local meteorologist is reporting. Meteorologist Jim Andrus said before the rain, the snowpack for the region stood at about 50 percent of average for this time of year. After the rainfall, the snowpack stood at 83 percent of the average. While rain fell around the county, snow was falling in the higher elevations.

“The amount of rain we had at the end of that weekend helped a lot,” Andrus said. “We had a ton of rain last weekend.” On Saturday, Jan. 26 Cortez received 1.19 inches of rain and the liquid amount of moisture from both rain and snow added another .69 inches of precipitation for a combined total of 1.88 inches over the three days…

The big factor for snowpack is the spring weather. If it’s a warm spring with rain and high winds, the snow would evaporate and the major drought concerns would return.

From The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (Gary Harmon):

An uneven water supply picture has the managers of the three big Grand Valley domestic water suppliers looking anxiously to the peaks in search of new snow, to weather forecasts for hope, and to each other for help.

The bright spot — and one that could fade quickly in the late winter sun — is the snowpack covering the Grand Junction city water supply, which began February at 98 percent of normal.

The farther east, however, the lighter the snowpack. Ute Water Conservancy District’s winter storehouse of snow is 75 percent of normal and the Upper Colorado River Basin overall is 77 percent of normal. The latter total is of greatest import to customers of Clifton Water District, which gets its water from the Colorado River.

The top managers of the three agencies are meeting regularly to prepare for the possibility that a dry winter and spring will force them to take extraordinary measures as the days grow longer and the Colorado River shrinks.

The specter of another disaster, such as the Pine Ridge Fire last year on the north side of the Bookcliffs, could require measures such as water rates designed to punish high water use, and prohibitions on the outdoor use of domestic water, such as for lawn watering. “We all might be one natural event from having to go to the other entities” for help with water, Clifton Water General Manager Dale Tooker said.

The three systems all are interconnected, largely as a response to the 1977 drought, but each agency forecasts its water use separately, meaning one would have to use its reserves to help out another provider. That would put unanticipated strains on the water delivery system. The three agencies cover one another “on a handshake,” said Greg Trainor, Grand Junction utility and street systems director. “There are no formal agreements.”

Another strain could arise if low river flows make it impossible for ditch companies, which serve agricultural interests, to draw water from the Colorado. In those circumstances, residents of subdivisions that use ditch water for their lawn watering, garden-tending and other outdoor uses will invariably start using domestic water for those activities. “Until they get their bills,” Ute Water General Manager Larry Clever said.

One bright note for Colorado River water users is that the Shoshone generating station is close to calling its full 1,200 cubic feet per second of water down the stream. It hasn’t demanded its full water right for the last several years, Clever said.

The three agencies would prefer to avoid confrontations with unhappy customers and are beginning to fashion ways of urging residents to hold down water use. No half-measures, such as odd-even watering schedules, are likely to be effective because of the difficulty in monitoring them, Clever said.

The domestic-water agencies are hoping to work with irrigation-water suppliers to better manage their response to the drought but have yet to drum up enthusiasm, Clever said. “We can make it,” Clever said, “If something happened to one of us, we might have to put restrictions on, but we can make it. But if we get three or four of these (drought years,) we’re in trouble.

From The Greeley Tribune:

With dry and warm weather expected to continue, management decisions will be critical for agricultural producers and families to maintain the resource base of their operations, according to Colorado State University Extension specialists. The Golden Plains CSU Extension office is planning to host its Drought Summit webcast series to provide critical drought management information to producers and their families.

Drought Summit dates, web cast origination locations and topics are:

» Tuesday, Burlington Community Center in Burlington (Weather updates and crop insurance issues)

» Feb. 19, Washington County Events Center in Akron (Crop production issues, forage production with limited irrigation, entomology and insect concerns during drought)

» Feb. 26, Yuma Community Center in Yuma (Livestock production issues, including herd liquidation and tax consequences and livestock disease during drought)

» March 5, Phillips County Events Center in Holyoke (Managing wind breaks, perennials and ornamentals during drought)

» March 12, Phillips County Events Center in Holyoke (Range management issues, pasture management, invasive weeds and insects)

» March 19, Sedgwick County Courthouse Annex in Julesburg (Human resources issues, family financial management and communications)

From the Northern Colorado Business Report (Steve Lynn):

City Council is scheduled to hear from Fort Collins city staff on the matter at its meeting Tuesday. The restrictions would take effect April 1 if approved by City Manager Darin Atteberry, said Lisa Rosintoski, customer connection manager for the city. Water restrictions do not need approval from city councilors.

Level 1 water restrictions allow watering only two days per week and on a schedule. The restrictions bar watering between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. and prohibit watering of surfaces such as sidewalks and patios except as necessary for health and safety. Level 1 restrictions would not affect water bill rates.

Officials anticipate having less water this year as snowpack remains well below average and also because of poor water quality in the Cache la Poudre from the High Park fire.

The National Resource Conservation Service said recently that it expects below average water supplies this spring and summer in the West, with Colorado especially hard hit.

Here’s the February 2013 news release (read it and weep) from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (Mage Hultstrand):

COLORADO’S SNOWPACK REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE

Denver, CO – February 5, 2013 – Snowpack accumulation during January can simply be summed up as; better late than never! Weather patterns in Colorado were largely dominated by high pressure systems this past month and things remained dry throughout most of January. The storm system that finally brought some snow to Colorado during the last week of January has improved snowpack conditions statewide. Unfortunately these storms were not enough to boost the statewide snowpack to normal conditions. Recent snow surveys conducted by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) show that Colorado’s snowpack continues to track below the long-term average, according to Phyllis Ann Philipps, State Conservationist. As of February 1, the statewide snowpack was at 72 percent of normal and 90 percent of last year’s readings at this same time. The statewide snowpack percentage has remained nearly constant for two consecutive months (it was 70 percent of normal on January 1).

The southwest portion of the state benefitted the most from the recent storms. The greatest increase was measured in the combined San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan basins whose February 1 snowpack was at 88 percent of normal; up from 70 percent of normal measured on January 1. In the Rio Grande basin the snowpack jumped 13 percentage points this past month, to 78 percent of normal as of February 1. The Arkansas basin also showed overall gains in snowpack percentage, increasing from 61 percent on January 1 to 63 percent on February 1. With the storms focused mainly in the south, the northern portion of the state saw snowpack percentages remain constant or decline during January. The largest departure, as a percent of normal, from last month’s report was reported in the South Platte basin which dropped 13 percentage points. As of February 1 the snowpack in this basin was at just 54 percent of normal, the lowest, as a percent of normal, in the state.

This recent snowpack data directly reflects what the state can expect for surface water supplies this coming spring and summer. Current streamflow forecasts continue to point towards well below normal runoff volumes in all the major river basins in Colorado. Adding to this bleak water supply outlook, reservoir storage across the state remains below average. Unless Colorado sees weather patterns that bring above average snowfall and precipitation to the state over these next few months, it is not likely that there will be much relief from the current drought conditions.

Click on the thumbnail graphic for the table of snowpack and storage by basin as of January 31, 2013.

From The Aspen Times (Janet Urquhart):

According to weather data tracked by the Aspen Water Department, 80 percent of January’s snow fell during the final week of the month, providing a string of powder days on the slopes and keeping the month out of the top five driest Januarys on record. Still, last month nearly cracked the top 20 with a total snowfall that was well short of average. The Water Department measured 18.3 inches of snowfall at the town’s water plant, located at an elevation of 8,161 feet, for the month. The average is 25.9 inches…

Last week’s snows helped boost the statewide snowpack to 75 percent of normal thanks to huge dumps that added several feet of new snow to parts of Colorado, including the southwest mountains (Telluride reported nearly 3 feet by Thursday), the Grand Mesa and the Steamboat Springs area…

Snowpack in the Roaring Fork Basin stood at 63 percent of average on Sunday. It was at 60 percent of average on Independence Pass, southeast of Aspen, and at 76 percent of average on North Lost Trail, outside Marble, according to the conservation service.

By comparison, the snowpack in the river basins of southwest Colorado — the Dolores-San Miguel and San Juan — stood at 75 and 74 percent of average, respectively. The Yampa/White River basin, including Steamboat Springs, was at 78 percent of average, and the Upper Colorado River headwaters, which encompass ski resorts that include Vail and Copper Mountain, was at 72 percent.

From the High Country News (Sarah Jane Keller):

“Normal” climate is often measured in 30-year increments, adapted every decade by many weather-watching organizations. Until recently, Morrisey’s NRCS, whose SNOTEL sites track Western snowpack, used 1971-2000 as its standard. Now, however, it uses 1981-2010, meaning precipitation averages exclude the 1970s’ wet years. Instead, the dry 2000s have replaced them, so this year’s Western snowpack conditions may sound better than they are. This affects far more than peeved powder hounds; irrigators and rafters hoping to avoid parched crops and rocky rivers will have to adjust their notions about what a normal snowpack is.

From Colorado State University (Jennifer Dimas):

Leaders of the state’s green industry – encompassing all the plant producers and professional services that bring to life yards, gardens, golf courses and public spaces – have donated nearly $100,000 to Colorado State University for research in the Department of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture.
The donation will be invested, and annual earnings from the endowment will provide a steady flow of research funding for many years to come.

A group of Colorado industry associations jointly provided the gift. The group has annually funded research for nearly four decades; the endowment will allow a continuation of this support in perpetuity.
The funding will continue to bolster research of special interest to the green industry, said Stephen Wallner, head of the Department of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture.

“This research support is a nice example of partnerships our department and land-grant university have with Colorado agriculture. Our department is pleased to support industry needs with new discoveries, which ultimately help not only producers, but also home and public gardeners,” Wallner said. “We particularly appreciate this dependable research funding, which will continue in perpetuity.”

Donna Ralston, former executive director of the GreenCo Foundation and a leader in providing the donation, said the green industry is especially interested in research that suggests solutions to water scarcity for lawns and gardens.

“Most of the issues in the industry revolve around water conservation, water use and plants that are more drought-tolerant in our semi-arid climate. We’re interested in understanding everything from plant varieties to better irrigation techniques,” Ralston said. “Our industry continues to evolve, and research findings are critical to that.”

The green industry is a critical component of Colorado agriculture.

Total revenues for the green industry were estimated to be about $1.8 billion dollars in 2007, according to the most recent economic survey. The green industry provided almost 35,000 jobs with $1.2 billion dollars in payroll, the survey showed.

The industry encompasses the following sectors: landscape architecture, landscape contracting, nurseries and greenhouses, garden centers, sod production, lawn care professionals, and tree and shrub care.
“By donating these assets to an endowment established through the CSU Foundation, we can continue to support horticulture research that benefits the entire green industry for years to come,” said Troy Sibelius, former president of the GreenCo Foundation.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

As the drought moves into its third year in the Arkansas River basin, there are concerns about having enough water to meet typical needs. “We have some real concerns about the availability of water in the Arkansas Valley,” Water Division 2 Engineer Steve Witte told a state forum last week.

Witte spoke as part of a panel of the state’s seven division engineers at the Colorado Water Congress annual convention. Divisions are determined by water basins in Colorado.

The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor shows the entire Arkansas Valley east of Pueblo is in the worst stage of drought in the nation, and projections offer little hope for relief. Water supply could be further crippled because snowpack remains below average. This means less water than normal will be coming from the Colorado River basin through transmountain diversions.

Compounding the problem are:
● The winter water storage program, which allows farmers to use water at optimum points in the growing season, is at its lowest point in 25 years.
● Less water is available for lease by farmers.
The Pueblo Board of Water Works and Colorado Springs plan to rebuild storage supplies this year.
● There is more demand for Fryingpan­Arkansas Project return flows, even though less water is available.

Ironically, Colorado has a 57,600 acre­foot surplus in delivery of water to Kansas under the Arkansas River Compact. “It was so dry this year that Kansas did not take any deliveries from John Martin Reservoir,” Witte said. The surplus is recorded on a 10­year average, and Colorado is planning on slowly adjusting the formula to determine presumptive depletions from well pumping. Witte said one bright spot is that less water for replacement by farmers is needed under surface irrigation rules designed to hold consumptive use in check. If farmers can find the water.

From the Boulder Daily Camera (Alex Burness):

The few inches of snow that fell on Boulder late Monday night and early Tuesday boosted the season’s total to 24.5 inches. Winter sports aficionados welcomed the snow, as a mild winter has left Boulder almost 3 feet short of the total accumulation at this time last year, according to meteorologist Matt Kelsch, of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. The storm dropped 2.9 inches of snow in Boulder, 4 inches in Louisville and just 1 inch in Nederland, Kelsch reported Tuesday.

Nonprofit ski industry trade organization Colorado Ski Country USA reported that all of the state’s 21 ski and snowboard resorts received new snow, though the Front Range got the least of it. While resorts such as Steamboat, Powderhorn and Sunlight all reported at least 20 inches, Arapahoe Basin, Copper Mountain and Eldora all had fewer than 6 inches of snow…

February and March historically have accounted for more than 25 inches of snowfall, giving Boulder plenty of time to catch up. Last February alone accounted for more than 32 inches.

From Steamboat Today (Nicole Inglis):

With just 8 inches of snow falling through Jan. 24, last month was about to go down in Steamboat Ski Area history as the driest January in more than 30 years. By the time January officially came to a close Thursday night, the month ended with a respectable — but still below average — 56.5 inches of snow. Historically the snowiest month of the year, January typically brings an average of 74.89 inches to the slopes of the Steamboat Ski Area…

Including the 4 inches that were reported Friday, the ski area has received 197.25 inches of snow this season, with two-and-a-half months left of lift-served skiing. Last year at this time, only 110 inches had fallen.

From The Denver Post (Brandon Swedlund):

Snowfall is not uncommon this month, but snow events are not as strong as late autumn and early spring storms. Denver averages a little less than 6 inches of snow during February, which is the sixth highest throughout the year. High temperatures can also fluctuate, but on average continue to warm throughout the month. The latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center calls for near to above normal temperatures with near to below normal precipitation across Denver and much of northeastern Colorado.

As was expected, the weather pattern in Denver during January was largely dry with fluctuating temperatures. About 4 inches of snow fell last month at DIA, with the bulk of it coming late in the day on Jan. 28 into the early morning of Jan. 29.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

Forget the groundhog. The Earth’s weather patterns could have it in for Colorado again this year. Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe gave a pessimistic forecast for the year ahead to the Colorado Water Congress Friday.

Why believe a weatherman? “In a lot of ways, it’s easier to forecast five years than five hours,” Bledsoe said.

He then launched into a detailed explanation of world weather patterns. “In many years, El Nino (Pacific Ocean warming) and La Nina (cooling) are not the major factors for Colorado,” Bledsoe said. “We’re in between both right now.”

During La Nina cycles, Eastern Colorado is frequently dry. Many climate models show the pattern could drift back into La Nina again, meaning more dry years.

But weather systems over the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean and North Pole can affect weather in the Southern United States, Bledsoe said. Long­term weather patterns show the state could experience weather similar to the 1950s in the coming years, and perhaps decades. “I’ve been talking to a lot of farmers and ranchers, particularly younger ones, and I stress to them they have to have a plan,” said Bledsoe, who grew up on a farm in Eastern Colorado and lamented that his parents sold off half their organic beef herd.

Another dry year would add to Colorado’s woes. The warm weather in 2012 increased evaporation, while precipitation decreased throughout Colorado, said Nolan Doesken, state climatologist. Statewide, 2012 was the second-­warmest year in recorded history, surpassed only by 1934.

From The Denver Post (Megan Mitchell):

A heavy snowstorm last week increased Colorado’s snowpack statewide by 17 percentage points, boosting totals to 75 percent of normal on Feb. 1 from 58 percent of normal, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service. “Anything helps at this point,” said NRCS assistant snow survey supervisor Mage Hultstrand. “It’s huge improvement, but not nearly enough to push us to normal conditions for this month.”

Hultstrand said 75 percent of normal is still 25 percent short of what state reservoirs want in water storage. Still, the fact that snowpack increased in a month to 75 percent of normal from 70 percent — the fourth-worst Jan. 1 reading in 32 years — is encouraging, Hultstrand said. January finished the month at the eighth- lowest level in 32 years.

On the Front Range, where snow totals don’t figure into snowpack reports, the National Weather Service recorded 4.6 inches of snow in January. Some regions have seen more improvement than others. Snowpack in southwest Colorado, including the San Miguel, San Juan, Dolores and Animas basins, is up to 85 percent of average, and the Gunnison and the Upper Rio Grande are at 78 percent.

From the Loveland Reporter Herald (Pamela Dickman):

Natural Resources Conservation Service resource specialists were shocked by their findings earlier this week with some Larimer County areas registering snowpack at 25 percent and 26 percent of average, while the highest they found was 74 percent of average. And all places in the Big Thompson and Poudre River drainages were worse off than last year 2012 — a year meteorologists rated as one of the third driest on record including a year during the dust bowl. “I’m going to have to look at this as the glass is half full and hope we get some storms in February and March that will boost the snowpack up,” said Todd Boldt, half of the team that snowshoes into test sites and manually measures snow. “If you look at it half empty, you go into depression.”

The sites that supply the Big Thompson River were worse off than those that supply the Poudre River, although both ultimately feed into the South Platte. Overall, the South Platte basin is registering 59 percent of average, according to Northern Water. At the 9000-foot Deer Ridge test site in Rocky Mountain National Park, snowpack measured 25 percent of the 30-year average and 20 percent of what was at the same location at the end of January 2012.

Other locations in the Big Thompson are:

* Hidden Valley, 9,480 feet elevation, 26 percent of average and 29 percent compared to last year.

* Willow Park, 10,700 feet, 39 percent average, 54 percent compared to 2012.

* Bear Lake, 9,500 feet, 50 percent of average, 58 percent compared to 2012.

In the Poudre Canyon, the levels were better, although still below average and below the measurements at the end of January 2012. Cameron Pass, the highest elevation area tested, ranked 51 percent of average and 78 percent compared to 2012. The closest to average was at Big South, 8,600 feet elevation, ranking 74 percent of average and 68 percent of 2012. Chambers Lake, 9,000 feet, measured 46 percent of average — the lowest in the Poudre — and 72 percent compared to 2012.

Regional water experts also look at the snowpack that feeds into the Upper Colorado River, which as of Thursday, was at 69 percent of average at automated sites…

The reservoirs that hold Colorado-Big Thompson water are 26 percent below the average fill levels.

From the Glenwood Springs Post Independent (Heather McGregor):

Sunlight Mountain Resort received 20 inches of new snow from Sunday through Tuesday, and snow is still falling, said Jennie Spillane, marketing manager for Sunlight. “We now have a 45-inch base, and there is more snow in the forecast through Thursday,” Spillane said. “There is still a lot out there to be had.”[…]

“Monday started out with a lot of rain, even in the high country,” said Nancy Shanks, spokeswoman for the Colorado Department of Transportation. “Then it snowed all day — up to 10 inches over 10 hours on McClure Pass.”[…]

Snowpack in the Colorado River basin is just 64 percent of average for Jan. 30, said David Kanzer, senior water resources engineer for the Colorado River District, the 15-county agency that advocates for Western Slope water.

“The snow is much-needed, and we need much more,” said Jim Pokrandt, spokesman for the River District. “To get to normal, we’d need to get 136 percent of normal snowfall through the rest of the winter. Anything is possible, but that illustrates the magnitude of the issue.”

Kanzer said the basinwide snowpack for the Colorado River above Dotsero is still less than it was on Jan. 30 in 2012 and 2002, the two most recent severe drought years. It is higher than in 1981, he noted. Comparative figures for 1977, considered to be the rock-bottom year for drought, weren’t readily available.

Spring runoff into Lake Powell is forecast to be just 56 percent of average, and may fall below 50 percent with new estimates, Kanzer said.

From Colorado Public Radio (Zachary Barr):

A bad situation is getting worse. That’s the top line from farmers, ranchers, and water managers as the state’s drought marches on. Over the past year, Colorado’s had about 30% less precipitation than average. The US Department of Agriculture has declared two-thirds of Colorado’s counties “disaster areas,” and that includes every county on the eastern plains.

Meanwhile, it will be an early spring, according to Punxsutawney Phil. Here’s a report from ABC News:

When the Pennsylvania groundhog emerged from his dwelling at Gobbler’s Knob Saturday morning, he did not see his shadow.

“And so ye faithful, there is no shadow to see, an early Spring for you and me,” proclaimed Bob Roberts, one of Phil’s handlers.

According to folklore, if a groundhog emerges from its burrow and see its shadow, then six more weeks of winter weather is on the way. But if it comes out and sees no shadow, spring is expected to come early.

Punxsutawney, the Pennsylvania town that is home to one of the most famous weather-predicting groundhogs, Punxsutawney Phil, has been carrying on the tradition of Groundhog Day since the 1800s, according to The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.

Here’s the link to their facebook graphic. Wow, 1.74 inches of precipitation in Durango.

I have a retirement place just over the hill near Dolores. I hope there was good moisture there.

The January 2013 Climate Summary for Denver – crh.noaa.gov/news/display_c…

— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) February 1, 2013

From the National Weather Service Boulder office:

JANUARY 2013 STARTED OUT COLD AND DRY…WITH THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE MONTH BEING 9.3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNED ON THE 7TH AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE 10TH. THE WEATHER TURNED SHARPLY COLDER ON THE 11TH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED INTO COLORADO. FOR A THREE DAY PERIOD FROM THE 12TH THROUGH THE 14TH…THE HIGH TEMPERATURE DID NOT REACH THE TEENS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES…1.4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FROM THE 11TH THROUGH THE 14TH. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNED TO DENVER ON THE 16TH AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE 28TH AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TOOK HOLD OF THE REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD…THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EXCEEDED 60 DEGREES THREE TIMES WITH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES ON THE 24TH BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE MONTH. ON THE 28TH…A WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVED INTO COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. COLDER UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNED TO DENVER ON THE 28TH…AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE STATE. 3.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FROM THE EVENING OF THE 28TH THROUGH THE MORNING OF THE 29TH.

TEMPERATURES:

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY WAS 30.3 DEGREES F WHICH WAS 0.4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. JANUARY OF 1986 IS THE WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 40.3 DEGREES F. THE COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD (16.9 DEGREES F) OCCURRED BACK IN 1930.

THERE WERE NO DAYS IN WHICH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDED 90 DEGREES. THERE WERE 6 DAYS IN WHICH THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE DID NOT EXCEED 32 DEGREES F AND 4 DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES F. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE OF THE MONTH WAS 66 DEGREES WHICH OCCURRED ON THE 24TH. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF THE MONTH WAS 12 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ON THE MORNING OF THE 12TH.

PRECIPITATION:

PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY WAS 0.31 INCHES…WHICH IS 0.10 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL 0F 0.41 INCHES. THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD OCCURRED WAY BACK IN 1883 WHEN 2.35 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WAS RECORDED. THE DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD OCCURRED BACK IN 1952 AN OTHER YEARS.

4.6 INCHES OF SNOW WAS RECORDED DURING THE MONTH…WHICH IS 2.4 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 7.0 INCHES. THE SNOWIEST JANUARY ON RECORD OCCURRED BACK IN 1992 WHEN 24.3 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. THE LEAST SNOWIEST JANUARY ON RECORD OCCURRED BACK IN 1934 AND AGAIN IN 2003. ON THOSE YEARS…ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW WAS RECORDED AT DENVER.

THERE WERE NO THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THERE WERE TWO DAYS WITH DENSE FOG WITH A VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1/4 MILE DURING THE MONTH. A PEAK WIND OF 45 MPH FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION WAS RECORDED ON THE 24TH.

From the National Weather Service Pueblo office:

January of 2013 was a relatively cold and dry month across the state, save for portions of southwest Colorado, which saw above normal precipitation thanks to two storm systems which brought 1 to 3 inches of snow water equivalent to the Continental Divide at the end of the month. The following graphics depict departures from normal for both temperatures and precipitation experienced across the state over the past month.

After a very cold start to the month, in which the average temperature through January 18th was an amazing 18 degrees below normal, Alamosa was finally able to break stubborn inversions and warmed up through the last week of the month. With that said, the average temperature for the entire month came in at 4.6 degrees, which is 11.7 degrees below normal. This makes January of 2013 the 5th coldest on record in Alamosa, well behind the average temperature of 1.4 degrees recorded in January of 1992. Alamosa received 0.07 inches of precipitation and 1 inch of snow through the month of January, which is 0.19 inches and 3 inches below normal, respectively.

The average temperature in Colorado Springs through the month of January was 30.3 degrees, which is 0.2 degrees below normal. Colorado Springs received 0.18 inches of precipitation and 3.2 inches of snow through the month of January, which is 0.14 inches and 2.4 inches below normal, respectively.

The average temperature in Pueblo through the month of January was 29.4 degrees, which is 1.1 degrees below normal. Pueblo received 0.21 inches of precipitation and 3.8 inches of snow through the month of January, which is 0.14 inches and 2.7 inches below normal, respectively.

Looking ahead into February, in Alamosa, the average high and low temperature of 36 degrees and 1 degree on February 1st warms to 45 degrees and 12 degrees, respectively, by the end of the month, with an average monthly temperature of 22.8 degrees. Alamosa averages 0.26 inches of precipitation and 3.8 inches of snow through the month of February.

In Colorado Springs, the average high and low temperature of 43 degrees and 18 degrees on February 1st warms to 48 degrees and 22 degrees, respectively, by the end of the month, with an average monthly temperature of 32.1 degrees. Colorado Springs averages 0.34 inches of precipitation and 4.9 inches of snow through the month of February.

In Pueblo, the average high and low temperature of 48 degrees and 15 degrees, respectively, on February 1st warms to 55 degrees and 21 degrees by the end of the month, with an average monthly temperature of 33.9 degrees. Pueblo averages 0.30 inches of precipitation and 3.8 inches of snow through the month of February.

Here’s the latest local storm report from the National Weather Service Boulder office.

I’ll be live-tweeting the high points today @CoyoteGulch. Twitter users are using hash tag #2013cwc.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

Drought and wildfires are at the top of the list of concerns for state lawmakers and water leaders.

Nearly everyone who spoke at the annual convention of the Colorado Water Congress touched on the topics Thursday morning. More than 500 attended. “Drought has an impact on water quality,” said Steve Gunderson, director of the Colorado Water Quality Control Division. “Wildfire has a catastrophic impact on water quality.”

One-­fifth of the state’s 250 public water systems were affected by last year’s wildfires, and the watersheds that supply them will take years to recover. “Last summer was a nightmare, and next year could be worse,” Gunderson said.

State Engineer Dick Wolfe said the recent storms that left snow in the mountains raised the snowpack to 76 percent, up from 62 percent one week ago. “We need 130 percent for the rest of the season to get to average,” Wolfe said. “But we need to get to 20 percent to 30 percent above average to make up for dry soil.” That isn’t likely to happen, according to the long­term forecast.

That could make things difficult for state parks and wildlife. “Without water, we don’t have a revenue stream,” Cables said. “We don’t have a grand plan.” State lawmakers also addressed the Colorado Water Congress, explaining several bills that finetune state water laws, including measures that would encourage agriculture efficiency, create guidelines for using “gray water,” prevent federal “taking” of ski­area water rights and provide more mitigation for wildfires.

State Sen. Gail Schwartz praised Gov. John Hickenlooper’s announcement Wednesday that $10.3 million in state money will be made available for wildfire mitigation designed to clear more than 4 million acres of standing timber. There were strong sentiments from lawmakers to protect agricultural ownership of water rights.

“We in the urban areas of Colorado can use water in the most efficient way so we don’t buy up and dry up agriculture,” said state Rep. Randy Fisher, chairman of the state House ag committee.