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Latest Monthly Briefing – July 8, 2016 (Micro-Briefing)
Highlights
June was a very hot Western US Seasonal Precipitation and very dry Western US Seasonal Precipitation month for the region, with much of the region seeing less than 50% of normal precipitation, and above-normal precipitation only in scattered areas. It was the hottest June on record for Utah, the 2nd hottest for Wyoming, and the 3rd hottest for Colorado. The dry June did not greatly impact the spring snowmelt and runoff, which was already well underway. As forecasted, below-average runoff has predominated at Utah forecast points, with near-average to above-average runoff in Colorado and Wyoming. April-July Lake Powell inflows are on track to exceed the official forecasts, at around 6750 KAF (95% of average). The vast majority of reservoirs in Colorado and Wyoming have above-average storage for this time of year, with most major reservoirs near capacity or spilling. Utah’s reservoirs are split between below- and above-average storage. The 2015-2016 El Niño event has finally ended, and ENSO-neutral conditions are now present . ENSO forecasts ENSO Prediction Plume indicate a roughly 75% chance of La Niña conditions during the coming fall and winter. Both the CPC outlook 3-mo precip forecast, 0.5-mo lead and the experimental SWcast outlook SWcast show little or no tilt for July–September precipitation for our region .