Earth hit an unofficial record high temperature this week – and stayed there — Associated Press #ActOnClimate

Under a Western Sun. Photo credit: Greg Hobbs

Click the link to read the article on the Associated Press website (Seth Borenstein and  Melina Walling). Here’s an excerpt:

Earth’s average temperature on Wednesday [July 5, 2023] remained at an unofficial record high set the day before, the latest grim milestone in a week that has seen a series of climate-change-driven extremes. The average global temperature was 17.18 Celsius (62.9 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer, a tool that uses satellite data and computer simulations to measure the world’s condition. That matched a record set Tuesday, and came after a previous record of 17.01 Celsius (62.6 degrees Fahrenheit) was set Monday.

While the figures are not an official government record, “this is showing us an indication of where we are right now,” said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief scientist Sarah Kapnick. And NOAA indicated it will take the figures into consideration for its official record calculations. Scientists generally use much longer measurements — months, years, decades — to track the Earth’s warming, but the daily highs are an indication that climate change is reaching uncharted territory…Scientists have warned for months that 2023 could see record heat as human-caused climate change, driven largely by the burning of fossil fuels like coal, natural gas and oil, warmed the atmosphere. They also noted that La Nina, the natural cooling of the ocean that had acted as a counter, was giving way to El Nino, the reverse phenomenon marked by warming oceans.

“A record like this is another piece of evidence for the now massively supported proposition that global warming is pushing us into a hotter future,” said Stanford

Denver City Park sunrise

Click the link to read “Monday may have been Earth’s warmest day on record. Then it got even hotter” on The Los Angeles Times website (Nathan Solis and Hayley Smith). Here’s an excerpt:

The global average daily temperature Monday [July 3, 2023] was 62.6 degrees — the highest since modern record-keeping began more than four decades ago, according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer project. The average temperature Tuesday [July 4, 2023] was higher still, 62.9 degrees, data show…The global records likely set Monday and Tuesday are preliminary. Over the next several weeks, researchers will analyze the data to verify the temperatures based on NOAA guidelines…

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which uses a different model for temperature analysis, announced that its preliminary data for Monday were also record-breaking. Although an average of 62.9 degrees doesn’t sound particularly warm, researchers point out some parts of the globe are in the middle of winter. Antarctic sea ice at the end of June was nearly a million square miles below average for this time of year, compared with data from 1981 to 2010, according to a recent NOAA report. That’s almost four times the size of Texas…

[Petteri] Taalas warned that El Niño’s arrival should be a signal to governments around the globe to prepare for extreme weather. El Niño occurs every two to seven years, and can last anywhere from nine months to a year, according to the WMO. The agency recently predicted there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years — and the five-year period as a whole — will be the warmest on record.

“Early warnings and anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to save lives and livelihoods,” Taalas said.

#Drought news July 6, 2023: A re-evaluation of conditions in parts of the W. Great Plains led to some improvements to long-term dryness and long-term moderate #drought in the #TX and #OK Panhandle region, and in W. #NE and E. #WY

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Heavy rains fell this week across parts of the Midwest, Ohio River Valley and Northeast, which led to widespread improvements from southeast Nebraska to central Illinois, southern Indiana, and central and eastern Kentucky. To the south and west, in southern Missouri, the Texas-Louisiana border and other parts of central Texas, drier weather led to worsening precipitation deficits, and significant problems with hay production in parts of southern Missouri. Dry weather in the Upper Midwest led to further degrading conditions in parts of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. A re-evaluation of conditions in parts of the western Great Plains led to some improvements to long-term dryness and long-term moderate drought in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region, and in western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, respectively. A mix of degradations and improvements occurred in the Pacific Northwest. No changes were made to the USDM depictions this week outside of the Lower 48…

High Plains

This week saw widespread improvements across the Great Plains. Much of the Great Plains portion of the region, with the exception of eastern Kansas, northern North Dakota and western Colorado, saw widespread precipitation, some of it heavy. Much of southeast and northwest Nebraska, northeast South Dakota and along the Wyoming-South Dakota border saw rainfall of at least 2 inches over the last week. In western Nebraska, eastern Wyoming and the Dakotas, this led to widespread improvements to the drought depiction in areas where the heaviest rains fell. Nebraska saw the most improvements in the High Plains with continued improvement in the Panhandle, the Sandhills up to the South Dakota border and the southeast near Nebraska City. Meanwhile, conditions continued to worsen in a majority of Kansas, particularly in the east and southeast where mostly dry weather continued. Given continued decreases in soil moisture and groundwater, and growing short- and long-term precipitation deficits, degradations were made from Manhattan to Fort Scott…

Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending July 4, 2023.

West

With the exception of western portions of Washington and Oregon, much of the West region experienced near- or cooler-than-normal temperatures this week. Heavy rains fell in parts of southeast Montana, northwest Wyoming and adjacent portions of central Idaho and southwest Montana. These rains helped to alleviate long-term precipitation deficits and increase streamflows in these areas, leading to a reduction in coverage of ongoing drought and abnormal dryness. Continued above-normal precipitation in parts of central and south-central Oregon has helped to alleviate long-term precipitation deficits and increase soil moisture, leading to localized shrinking of drought coverage. In southeastern and western portions of Washington, and in western Oregon, recent dry weather, low streamflows and increasing evaporative demand led to an expansion of drought and abnormal dryness in parts of these areas…

South

Much warmer-than-normal temperatures covered the South as it is enveloped in the continuing heat wave, especially eastern Texas and Louisiana where temperatures ranged from 4 to 8 degrees above normal compared to the rest of the region where temperatures were near normal to 4 degrees above normal. There was expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate drought along the western Gulf Coast where temperatures soared and little to no precipitation fell, providing no relief to the low streamflows and dry soil conditions. Tennessee did see the removal of moderate drought conditions along the Tennessee-Kentucky border after heavy rainfall. Conditions were status quo for the rest of the region despite seeing warmer-than-normal temperatures and slightly below-normal precipitation this last week…

Looking Ahead

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center forecast (valid July 5–7, 2023) calls for the latest heat wave in the Pacific Northwest to reach its peak intensity on Wednesday, July 5, with temperatures topping the lower 100s in the hottest locations. Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories coincide with many areas designated as abnormally dry or moderate drought. The heat is expected to taper off moving into the weekend. Farther south, hot, dry and windy conditions support an Excessive Heat Warning in southern Arizona and a Critical Fire Risk designation in northern Arizona, which overlaps areas of moderate drought. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring periods of heavy to excessive rainfall to drought-affected areas of the Central Plains and Midwest. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to linger across the southern tier of states. As a reminder, weather within this timeframe is after the data cutoff for this week and will be reflected on next week’s map. Heading into the weekend, the extended forecast (valid July 7–11, 2023) calls for hazardous heat across portions of California, the Southwest, the Southern Rockies, the South and the Southeast. This expected multi-day heat wave could worsen existing drought conditions in these regions. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for portions of the Central Plains, Midwest and South. Whether these rains will be beneficial and help ease drought concerns in these areas remains to be seen. While thunderstorms can produce large amounts of precipitation in a very short time, most of the rain runs off into drainage channels and streams. On the other hand, rain falling as light to moderate showers soaks into the ground, helps to recharge groundwater, sustains vegetation, and begins to chip away at moisture deficits that have built up during drought.

Next week, the Climate Prediction Center’s 6- to 10-day outlook (valid July 12–18, 2023) calls for an increased probability that the observed temperature, averaged over this 7-day period, will be above normal across the Southern Plains, much of the West, the Southeast and the Northeast. South Texas and South Florida have an 80–90% chance that the average temperature will be above normal during this period. In general, the odds of a warmer-than-normal average temperature decrease moving northward. The odds that the observed temperature, averaged over the same 7-day period, will be cooler than normal are highest in the Midwest (33–50%). Below-normal precipitation probabilities are increased across parts of the Southern Plains, Nevada and the Four Corners Region. Utah has a 50–60% chance that the total precipitation over the 7-day period will be below normal. Meanwhile, the Midwest has the highest probability (40-50%) that observed precipitation totals will be above normal. Other areas with an increased probability of above-normal precipitation include parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, Midwest and Northeast.

US Drought Monitor one week change map ending July 4, 2023.

Just for grins here’s slideshow of US Drought Monitor maps for early July for the past few years.

Public Lands Rule rhetoric gets wacky: Conservatives aren’t so keen on conservation — @HighCountryNews

Rio Grande del Norte National Monument via the Bureau of Land Management

Click the link to read the article on the High Country News website (Jonathan Thompson):

A few months ago, the Bureau of Land Management quietly proposed a new rule designed to “guide the balanced management of public lands,” putting conservation on a par with other uses, such as grazing, oil and gas drilling and mining. Among other things, it would allow individuals or entities to lease public parcels for conservation purposes, including habitat restoration or invasive species eradication.

To many observers, myself included, the proposal seemed unremarkable, basically a clarification of the multiple-use framework mandated by the 1976 Federal Land Policy and Management Act. Nothing about it was particularly earth-shattering or new. Environmental groups mostly supported it, albeit tepidly, though some thought that the conservation lease idea might do more harm than good. Initially, the response from the extractive industries and their enablers in Washington, D.C., was similarly subdued — with one or two exceptions.

But then, a few weeks after the new rule was unveiled, a backlash erupted for reasons I cannot fathom. It started out when Montana Republican Rep. Matt Rosedale, in a moment of rare candor, admitted that he didn’t think conservation was “supposed to be on equal footing” with extractive uses. Soon, it became a raging rhetorical inferno, with the misinformation conflagration climaxing at a U.S. House Natural Resources Committee sh*%show … er, hearing on June 15. The Republican-led committee — whose motto is “putting conservatives back into conservation” — wanted to discuss a bill that would block a rule aimed at putting conservation back into public-land management.

Republican South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem was one of the star witnesses, despite the fact that her state contains just .12% of the lands to which the rule would apply. The rule, she said, would be “devastating” for her state, because it would create “a mechanism like a conservation lease that could be bought by third parties, not even necessarily by people in our own country, and give them access and authority over these lands. It’s dangerous.”

Noem did not explain what she meant by third parties — or first or second parties for that matter — nor why that theoretical third party would be any more dangerous than the first two. She is also apparently unaware of the fact that foreign-owned corporations are regularly given access to and authority over the nation’s public lands — including the ability to rip them apart for profit — in the form of the mining claims and coal, oil and natural gas leases that she and other Republicans enthusiastically support.

While Noem may be dismissed as merely ill-informed, the same cannot be said of her co-witness, Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon, also a Republican. Gordon opened his testimony by declaring that he was a conservationist, which was, at least at some point, perfectly true: He once served as treasurer for the Sierra Club and wrote that oil and gas drilling had turned the once “pleasant little Western town” in which he lived into “the place that stinks on the way to Casper”. (Fun fact: He also served on the board of High Country News in the early 2000s.) 

But times — and Gordon — have clearly changed: The governor then went on to deride conservation, claiming that the proposed rule would allow environmentalists to put conservation leases on active grazing allotments and force all the cattle off the land. This is blatantly false, and if Gordon had read the actual text of the rule, he surely would have known it. The draft rule may contain some ambiguity, but it is clear about one thing: It cannot “disturb existing authorizations (or) valid existing rights.” Which is to say: The new rule cannot be used to boot cows, pumpjacks, mines, wind turbines or any other existing uses off public land. 

“Everything this administration does is about climate,” Gordon railed, veering away from the topic at hand, complaining that President Biden and company are “holding back the fossil fuel industry” and that “we can’t get a lease out of this administration. We can’t get a permit out of this administration.”

This is also untrue. In fact, on June 28 and 29, oil and gas companies had the opportunity to log into EnergyNet and bid on 116 oil and gas leases covering 127,000 acres of public land in Gordon’s own state, adding to the more than 7.5 million acres of leases already in effect in Wyoming. Meanwhile, the BLM has handed more than 300 drilling permits to operators in Wyoming this year alone, bringing the total of approved and available-to-drill permits in the state to nearly 2,000.

As the hearing dragged on, it became clear that the Republicans either do not understand the proposed rule or — more likely — do not want to understand it, because understanding it would force them to acknowledge that it’s not going to impede fossil fuel development or livestock operations or any other extractive development. And if they were to acknowledge that, they’d have no reason to be outraged and, therefore, no reason to exist. [ed. emphasis mine]

Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, who represents the HCN HQ’s home district in western Colorado, grilled BLM Deputy Director Nada Wolff Culver about whether the rule would impact existing grazing, impede forest management or “lock up more land.”

“No, it will not,” Culver said, adding that the agency simply was “implementing the Federal Land Management and Policy Act.” Boebert then demanded that Culver put that in writing. Thing is, it already is written in the 22-page proposed rule published in the Federal Register nearly three months ago. Had any of these folks bothered to read it, perhaps all this brouhaha wouldn’t have been necessary.

It went on, and on, and on like this. Rep. Doug LaMalfa, R-Calif., used his time to spread climate-denial pseudoscience on carbon dioxide. Utah’s Rep. John Curtis brought out the old “absentee landlord” trope about Eastern bureaucrats making decisions that affect the West, willfully ignoring the fact that Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is a member of the Pueblo of Laguna and, as she puts it, a 35th generation New Mexican. Immediately thereafter, Rep. Pete Stauber, R-Minn., slammed the proposed BLM rule for all the restrictions it allegedly would bring. His state, Minnesota, has exactly zero acres of BLM land.

Rep. Melanie Stansbury, of New Mexico (13.5 million acres of BLM land), was born in Farmington, where her dad worked in the oil fields and her mom at the San Juan power plant. The Democrat assured her colleagues the rule would not impede fossil fuel development or grazing. “I support this rule (because) it will help us manage our lands in a more balanced way,” she said. “I find it very upsetting when I see the resources of this body of Congress … being used to put forward narratives and misinformation that … is intended to scare the American people. Much of what I’ve heard here today is just not true.”

The Interior Department has extended the public comment period on the rule until July 5. So you’ve still got a few days to weigh in. 

In related news:

There are conflicting views regarding how the proposed Public Lands Rule would affect renewable energy development.

The Los Angeles Times’ Sammy Roth reported that some wind and solar industry officials worry the rule could give environmentalists and local BLM officials more tools to block future utility-scale solar or wind development. They point specifically to a provision that would extend rangeland health standards to all public lands and to another that would make it easier for agency offices to establish areas of critical environmental concern, or ACECs.

But Wolff Culver told Roth that neither provision is likely to hamper renewable energy projects. ACECs are already widely used by the agency; the new rule would merely consolidate, clarify and codify the procedure for establishing them. As for the rangeland health standards? The agency has never done a decent job of enforcing these standards for livestock operators, so why would it suddenly start using them to block solar projects?

The Center for American Progress said the new rule would actually encourage clean energy development. The proposed conservation leases, Drew McConville wrote, provide a potential framework for developers to do “compensatory mitigation,” or offset the impacts of a solar or wind facility by doing restoration work on another parcel of public land.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is pulling out all the stops to facilitate clean energy development in other ways:

  • Haaland traveled to Rawlins, Wyoming, last week to help celebrate the groundbreaking of the TransWest Express transmission project. The high-voltage line will carry wind power from the massive Chokecherry and Sierra Madre wind projects outside Rawlins westward to the California grid. Permitting for the project took 15 years.
  • The BLM proposed yet another rule, this one aiming to promote utility-scale solar and wind development on public land by reducing rents and fees significantly and streamlining right-of-way permitting.
  • In May, the Biden administration announced that it would expedite the review of the proposed revival and expansion of the Hermosa manganese and zinc mine in southern Arizona. The Australian owner of the mine said it is needed to meet growing demand for electric vehicle battery materials.
  • But one place will remain off-limits to “green metal” mining: An ancient dry lakebed in Nevada. The Associated Press reported that mining companies had targeted the site for its abundant lithium, which is used in batteries for EVs, energy storage and other applications. But it turns out the site is even more valuable to NASA, and for a very different purpose: satellite calibration. And so the BLM withdrew the 36-square-mile site from mineral exploration. The agency has not extended the same courtesy to the tribal nations seeking to block the Thacker Pass lithium mine from destroying a sacred site.