La Niña update: Events as big as the one this year are often two-year events

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From the Summit County Citizens Voice (Bob Berwyn):

La Niña’s fade may only be temporary, said Boulder-based climate researcher Klaus Wolter, suggesting that there’s a better than 50 percent chance that the pattern could redevelop next winter, based on historical patterns showing that strong La Niñas often last a couple of years. How the long-term pattern develops should be clear in the next three to six months, he added. “If you look at the historical performance (of La Niña) during the last 150 years, they have a tendency to disappear in the summer, then they come back,” Wolter said, adding that there’s almost a direct relationship between the size of the La Niñas and their propensity to return for a second, and sometimes a third year.

If the pattern does re-intensify, it probably won’t be as pronounced as this year. “Historically, if you look at two-year La Niñas, the second year is usually much lower than the first year,” he said.

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