From News 4 Tucson (Jeff Beamish):
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, much of Arizona has slight chance for above average rainfall between July and September.
Northeastern Arizona has the best odds for above average Monsoon rainfall. Coincidentally, the worst of the ongoing drought resides around the Four Corners region.
Below average Monsoon rainfall can’t be ruled out, according to the CPC’s latest odds. Southern Arizona has a 67% chance for near or above average rainfall, but only a 33% chance for below normal Monsoon precipitation.
The Monsoon officially begins on June 15th and ends September 30th. Climatology says Tucson’s average Monsoon rainfall is 6.08”.