The Crystal River was running under 8 cfs on Aug. 24, 2025. This section of river is downstream of big agricultural diversions and ditches owned and maintained by the Town of Carbondale. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Streamflows on the Western Slope have plummeted over the last month, sending water managers scrambling to boost flows for endangered fish and ranking it among the driest years in recent history.
According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, the Roaring Fork River basin ended the month of July at 28% of average streamflows. The Colorado River headwaters was at 42% of average; the Gunnison River basin was at 34% of average and rivers in the White/Yampa/Green River basin in the northwest corner of the state were running at 24% of average. Prior to this weekโs rains, the Crystal River near the Colorado Parks and Wildlife fish hatchery was running at 7.5 cfs, or 10% of average.
โWeโve been seeing pretty widespread well-below-normal flows across the entire upper Colorado River basin due to extremely dry conditions starting back in December,โ said Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.
For most of August, the Crystal River near fish hatchery was running at less than 15 cfs. These extremely low conditions plus water temperatures above 71 degrees Fahrenheit, prompted CPW to implement on Aug. 15 a full-day voluntary fishing closure on the Crystal from mile marker 64 on Highway 133 to the confluence with the Roaring Fork. This section of the Crystal is downstream from big agricultural diversions and ditches owned and operated by the town of Carbondale.
The upper Roaring Fork River and its tributaries are also suffering the consequences of low flows. On Aug. 25 the Colorado Water Conservation Board placed a call for the minimum instream flow on a seven-mile section of the Roaring Fork through Aspen, between Difficult and Maroon creeks. The call was released the next day after rain boosted flows above the 32 cfs minimum amount.
The CWCB is the only entity in the state allowed to hold instream flow water rights, which are intended to preserve the natural environment to a reasonable degree. Itโs not uncommon for the CWCB to place calls for this stretch in late summer and it did so in other years, including 2012, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022.
Low flows have also affected recreation at the North Star Nature Preserve, a popular area for paddle boarders east of Aspen. On July 24, Pitkin County implemented a voluntary float closure โ asking people to launch at South Gate instead of Wildwood โ which occurs when the river falls below 60 cfs.
โAt low water levels, users are at risk of touching bottom, which could damage the riparian habitat and would be considered trespassing,โ a Pitkin County official said in an email.
Before this weekโs rainfall, the Roaring Fork above Aspen hovered around 30 cfs.
Streamflows across the Western Slope are often at some of their lowest points of the year during the late summer and early fall when snowmelt has waned and irrigators are still drawing from streams. But this summerโs lack of precipitation and low soil moisture were the main drivers of dry streams. Much of the Western Slope is in extreme or exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
โThe biggest factor is the dry spring conditions and layered on top of them a much drier than normal summer,โ said Peter Goble, assistant state climatologist. โWe will be watching those base flows but also soil moisture levels as we go into fall and early winter to see if those pick back up.โ
Dry soils that suck up snowmelt before it makes it to streams can mean a normal snowpack translates into below-normal runoff.
This section of the Colorado River at the boat launch near Corn Lake dipped to around 150 cfs in lake August. Known as the 15-mile reach, this stretch of river should have at least 810 cfs to meet the needs of endangered fish. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Stressed out fish
Another area hard hit by low flows is the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River between Palisade and the confluence with the Gunnison River. The chronically dry section is home to multiple endangered fish species and is downstream from some of the biggest agricultural diversions from the Colorado River in the state. Each year water managers work together to time voluntary releases from upstream reservoirs to boost late-season flows for the fish.
But even with many entities working with the Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program, a 2022 memo from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service found that during the irrigation season of dry years, flows did not meet the 810 cfs target 39% of the time.
This year, flows have not been above 810 cfs since July 9. And although flows in the 15-mile reach have been climbing since Aug. 23, โ up to about 650 cfs on Aug. 27 โ nearly all the water in the reach before this weekโs rain was attributable to upstream reservoir releases specifically intended for endangered fish. Without releases for the recovery program, flows in the 15-mile reach could have dipped as low as 30 to 50 cfs.
โFrom my standpoint itโs amazing how a dry year just makes it really hard to get down even a third of that flow target,โ said Bart Miller, healthy rivers director with Western Resource Advocates. โItโs a challenging time for water users, but a super challenging time for fish. For the fish itโs a huge stressor.โ
This map shows the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River near Grand Junction, home to four species of endangered fish. Map credit: CWCB
This year there was about 29,175 acre-feet earmarked for endangered fish, according to a presentation by program staff. But by Sept. 1 nearly all this water was scheduled to be used up. The nonprofit Colorado Water Trust has stepped in to lease an additional 5,000 acre-feet out of Ruedi Reservoir. The water is owned by the town of Palisade, the Colorado River Water Conservation District and QB Energy. The releases of about 100 cfs are projected to begin Aug. 27 and continue through mid-October, said Danielle Snyder, a water resources specialist with the Colorado Water Trust.
โThis particular stretch is very critical for the health of the ecosystem,โ Snyder said. โWe saw a lot of benefit for both the community and the environment and we thought this would be a great opportunity given we have the capacity and funds to provide water to that region.โ
The CWCB will also lease an additional 2,350 acre-feet for fish flows.
Locally dwindling streamflows have big implications downstream. Projections released earlier this month from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation show the nationโs two largest reservoirs โ Lake Powell and Lake Mead โ continuing to drop. Lake Powell could drop below the level needed to make hydropower by late 2026. As proof of how dry the month of July was across the basin, inflow to Lake Powell was just 12% of normal.
One bright spot in an otherwise bleak forecast is that parts of the Western Slope are finally seeing some relief from the hot and dry summer with rain this week. But it probably wonโt be enough to make up for the months-long lack of precipitation.
โWe have been dry for six-plus months so I donโt imagine it will have a significant impact long term, but itโs nice to finally see some precipitation in the forecast and observed over the last day or two,โ Moser said.ย
Under the 1922 Colorado Compact, the Upper Division states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming share the river with the Lower Division states of Arizona, California and Nevada, with each Division apportioned 7,500,000 acre-feet of water annually. Over eighty percent of the water of the Colorado River originates as snowpack in the Upper Division, so sharing of the Riverโs flows is accomplished through Article 3.d of the Colorado Compact, which provides that the Upper Division States will not cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry, which is in Arizona just below Lake Powell, to be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre-feet for any period of ten consecutive years. Under a 1944 treaty, the Republic of Mexico is entitled to 1,500,000 acre-feet of Colorado River water each year. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the largest reservoirs in the United States, hold Colorado River water for delivery to the states and Mexico and are operated under the authority of the Secretary of the Interior (Secretary) through the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
The U.S. Supreme Courtโs ruling Arizona v. California, 373 U.S. 546 (1963) determined that Arizona entitled to divert 2.8 million acre-feet per year of Colorado River water in normal years. This is an important supply, constituting approximately 36% of Arizonaโs total water use.
Glen Canyon Dam, which forms Lake Powell, was completed in 1963, and thereafter Lakes Powell and Mead were operated under guidelines finalized in 1970, called the Long Range Operating Criteria (LROC). In 2007, in response to several years of drought and declining reservoir levels, the Secretary, in collaboration with the Colorado River states and other stakeholders, adopted a new set of operating guidelines. The 2007 Guidelines were designed to help stabilize water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead, to provide certainty regarding shortage conditions and to incentivize conserving water in Lake Mead by providing flexibility in deliveries to certain entities through the creation of โassigned waterโ (also commonly known as โIntentionally Created Surplusโ). The 2007 Guidelines expire on December 31, 2025 but its provisions generally remain in effect through the end of 2026. The 2007 Guidelines include three important aspects of Colorado River management that impact all who share the river. These are:
The amount of water the Secretary releases annually from Lake Powell into Lake Mead under different reservoir conditions.
Broadly speaking, the goal of these releases is to equalize the amount of water in Lakes Powell and Mead. Releases are based on water levels in Lake Powell relative to water levels in Lake Mead among other factors.1
2. The conditions under which the Secretary declares a shortage of Colorado River water in the Lower Division and of the amount of shortage assessed to each state.
A shortage is declared in the Lower Division when the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation annual August 24-Month Study projects that Lake Mead will be at or below elevation 1,075โ on the following January 1.
Arizona is shorted 320,000 acre-feet of water below Lake Mead elevation 1,075โ and above 1,050โ , 400,000 acre-feet of water below elevation 1,050โ and above 1,025โ and 480,000 acre-feet of water below elevation 1,025โ. Nevada takes shortages at these levels proportional to its 300,000 acre-foot allocation and no shortages are defined at these reservoir levels for Californiaโs allocation of 4.4 million acre-feet.
3. The terms under which entities can voluntarily create and hold volumes of assigned water in Lake Mead.
Assigned water is created and held in Lake Mead under the Secretaryโs authority to allocate surplus water under Article II(B)(2) of the consolidated Supreme Court decree in Arizona vs California and via treaty with Mexico. It is assigned to and held by an individual entity separate from the priority system of water allocation to which all other water in Lake Mead available for delivery in the Lower Division is subject.2
As of 2024, the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, the Gila River Indian Community, the Colorado River Indian Tribes, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the Imperial Irrigation District, the Southern Nevada Water Authority and the Republic of Mexico hold accounts of assigned water in Lake Mead.
Generally, water in Lake Mead available to but not ordered by one Colorado River contract entitlement holder can be ordered by another for delivery. Thus, for assigned water to be held in Lake Mead, several entities with contracts to Colorado River water must agree to forego their rights to order the same water over all of the years that the assigned water is held in Lake Mead. These entities signed a Forbearance Agreement in which they agreed not to order another entityโs assigned water under certain conditions. The Forbearance Agreement expires on December 31, 2025 but forbearance provisions for assigned water created through intentional conservation that exists as of that date continue through 2036 and through 2056 for assigned water created through other means.
Despite the efforts taken through the 2007 Guidelines, and due to chronic over-allocation of the river and continuing drought, water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead are at or near historic lows. To address continuing declines in water storage, various entities in Arizona, California and Nevada entered into several agreements including the 2019 Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan, the 2021 500+ Agreement and the 2023 System Conservation Agreement. Through these agreements the states committed to:
Voluntarily leave specified volumes of water in Lake Mead as Drought Contingency Plan contributions 3ย through the year 2026.
The voluntary contribution of water totals 192,000 acre-feet per year for Arizona between Lake Mead water levels below 1,090โ and above 1,045โ and totals 240,000 acre-feet per year below 1,045โ.
The voluntary contribution of water totals 8,000 and 10,000 acre-feet per year for Nevada at these levels. California did not agree to voluntary contributions of water at Lake Mead water levels above 1,045โ.
2. Through the year 2026, voluntarily leave some water in Lake Mead as unassigned water.
Unassigned water in Lake Mead belongs to no one entity and bolsters the supply of water available through the priority system to all Colorado River contract entitlement holders in the Lower Division (referred to as โSystem Conservationโ).
The states agreed to leave approximately three million acre-feet of unassigned water in Lake Mead. The federal government paid various entities with entitlements to Colorado River water, such as municipal water providers, agricultural interests, Tribes and mining companies to leave this water in Lake Mead.
The Secretary agreed to take affirmative actions to create or conserve 100,000 acre-feet per annum or more of Colorado River system water to contribute to conservation of water supplies in Lake Mead.
For unassigned water to be left in Lake Mead, several entities with contracts to Colorado River water must agree to forego their rights to order the same water. However, in the case of System Conservation, the water is held in Lake Mead only in the year the conservation takes place and subsequently becomes available the next year for delivery through the priority system. A group of entities, including the Director of Water Resources on behalf of the State of Arizona, signed various forbearance agreements in which they agreed not to order another entityโs conserved water. In these cases, forbearance is only required in the same year in which the system conservation activity takes place. These agreements expire at the end of 2026.
If no new set of operational guidelines is in place, upon expiration of the 2007 Guidelines and the Forbearance Agreements:
Rules for annual releases of water from Lake Powell into Lake Mead revert to the guidelines set forth in the LROC.
Generally, annual releases from Lake Powell to Lake Mead are set at 8.23 million acre-feet as an objective subject to Secretarial discretion and other factors. Arguably the Secretary has more discretion under LROC to set annual releases than under the 2007 Guidelines, which more precisely define releases based on relative water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead.
2. The specified shortages assessed to Arizona and Nevada under the 2007 Guidelines become moot and shortage determinations revert to the Secretaryโs authority, which has been broadly interpreted in times of shortage by the U.S. Supreme Court in its 1963 decision, Arizona v. California.
Under LROC, the Secretary has authority to โdetermine from time to time when insufficient mainstream water is available to satisfy annual consumptive use requirements of 7,500,000 acre-feetโ after consideration of various factors.
โข When insufficient water is available,
oย Deliveries through the Central Arizona Project are cut to the extent necessary to meet the demands of more senior Colorado River rights or entitlement holders in Arizona, California and Nevada.
oย If after these cuts there still remains insufficient water available to meet the demands of more senior Colorado River contract entitlement holders, the shortage provisions of Article II(B)(3) of the decree in Arizona v. California become effective, meaning that the rights of the Chemehuevi Indian, Cocopah Indian, Fort Yuma Indian, Colorado River Indian and Fort Mohave Indian Reservations are satisfied first, without regard to state lines, in order of their priority dates, and then present perfected rights are satisfied according to priority.
3. Some, but not all, forms of assigned water can no longer be created.
Creation of assigned water in Lake Mead through extraordinary conservation activities can no longer occur.
Creation of assigned water through importation of non-Colorado River system water and through certain tributary water into the Colorado River mainstem can continue to occur.
Creation of a special class of assigned water, called Developed Drought Supply, can continue to occur. Developed Drought Supply water can only be created during declared shortages and must be delivered in the same year it is created.
Rights to hold and deliver existing assigned water continue through 2036 for assigned water created through extraordinary conservation activities and through 2057 for assigned water used for Drought Contingency Plan contributions, and created through tributary water importation, non- Colorado River system water importation and Developed Drought Supply water.
Colorado River contract entitlement holders could theoretically continue to voluntarily leave water in Lake Mead as unassigned water, either compensated or not, but the expiration of the forbearance agreements means that another entity could simply order that same water for delivery.
Deliveries of Colorado River water to the Republic of Mexico are governed under a 1944 treaty and subsequent treaty minutes. Through various treaty minutes Mexico agreed to cuts to its deliveries under certain shortage conditions. These treaty minutes also allow Mexico to create assigned water in Lake Mead. The provisions regarding cuts to Mexican deliveries during shortage and the creation of Mexican assigned water expire at the end of 2026, though Mexico can continue to hold and request delivery of existing assigned water under generally the same terms and conditions that govern assigned water created by the Lower Division states through extraordinary conservation activities and used for Drought Contingency Plan contributions.
What Expiration of the 2007 Guidelines and the Forbearance Agreements Means for Arizona
Absent additional guidance from the Secretary or an agreement among the seven states that share the Colorado River, and assuming continued poor hydrology and runoff, water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead will continue to decline and Arizona can expect potentially very deep cuts to the Colorado River water imported into central Arizona via the Central Arizona Project. Eventually cuts could be deep enough to impact higher priority water users in Mohave, La Paz and Yuma Counties.
If less than 82,500,000 acre-feet of water is delivered to the Lower Division over any ten consecutive years, the United States and the Upper Division may have to contend with a legal demand from the Lower Division under Article 3.d of the Colorado Compact, which states that the Upper Division States โwill not cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre-feet for any period of ten consecutive years.โ The Lower Division asserts that the Upper Division is also responsible to deliver half of the obligation to Mexico, bringing the total ten-year obligation to 82,500,000 acre-feet. Under continued poor hydrology and runoff, it is likely that the ten-year consecutive total will fall below 82,500,000 in 2027. [ed. emphasis mine]
1ย If Lake Powell were drawn down too far while Lake Mead remained relatively full, the risk that deliveries at Lee Ferry would be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre-feet over ten consecutive years would increase, which would put the Upper Division at risk of failing to meet Colorado Compact requirements. At the same time, keeping Lake Mead relatively full avoids deep water shortages in the Lower Division. A goal of equalization between the reservoirs balances these risks.
2 Though, holders of Priority 1-3 entitlements would likely contest the Secretaryโs authority to cut their deliveries while withholding assigned water from the priority system.
3ย If assigned water is chosen as the form of DCP contribution, it remains recoverable above elevation 1,110 until 2057.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
Hard times in the Colorado River region. A near-average snowpack dissipated into an inflow into Powell Reservoir of only 40 percent of average; dry soils in the headwaters and high deserts, and increased evaporation and plant transpiration in a warming world are taking big tolls. And the negotiators for the seven Basin states, trying to work out a river management plan to replace the failing current management strategies, with the 30 Indian nations and Mexico looking over their shoulders, are continuing toโฆ negotiate. Trumpโs Interior Department officials have given then until November to negotiate a draft plan for beyond 2026.
Projected Lake Powell end-of-month physical elevations from the latest 24-Month Study inflow scenarios.
Meanwhile the Bureau of Reclamation has issued its annual 24-month projection, and it has no good news. Its worst case scenario โ the one everyone looks at โ suggests that, barring a huge winter this year, Powell Reservoir might drop to the elevation at which it can no longer produce hydropower by late fall 2026 โ at which point it cannot even make large deliveries downstream, because all the water would then have to go through four antique tubes never meant to carry that much water 24/7. This could undermine the best-laid plans of the negotiators, should they achieve a plan, with no ability to move sufficient water past Glen Canyon Dam until the reservoir filled back up to the power level. No plans have been announced for creating a Glen Canyon Dam bypass.
All the news dribbling out of the negotiations indicate that the negotiators persist in carrying forward the Colorado River Compactโs division of the river into Upper and Lower Basins. Do they not see that this is no longer necessary, or even desirable โ nothing but a cause of conflict and contention?
When representatives from the seven Colorado River Basin states gathered in Washington in January 1922, six of the states knew what they wanted: they wanted a seven-way division of the consumptive use of the riverโs waters that would transcend on the interstate level the appropriation doctrine all seven states adhered to intrastate.
They wanted this because southern California, the seventh state, was growing so fast, and already using so much of the riverโs water, that the other six knew they would be losers in a seven-state horse race to appropriate the riverโs water. The representatives all accepted the first-come first-served appropriation law as holy writ within their states, but saw its limits when looking at the whole river and the regional challenge of uneven development.
California sat down with the other six states because at that point, the other six states held a big card: California needed a interstate river to control floods and โrationalizeโ the flow and distribution of the riverโs water, rather than watching an uncontrolled flood of snowmelt โwasteโ most of the water to the ocean. And California knew that Congress would provide for that big dam only if all seven states were sure they would have a share of the water, once the river was controlled. So California had to participate in setting long-term limits on itself in order to get what it needed in the short term.
But after several days of trying to work out that seven-way division, the compact negotiators gave up in frustration. Each negotiator had come with estimates of his stateโs future water needs based on potentially arable land, mining-generated industry, possible urban development. Not really knowing what the future would bring did not dim their estimates at the turn of the 20th century, with the imperial impetus to โcreate our own realityโ just kicking into high gear. But by the time the seven negotiators had laid out their statesโ envisioned water needs, the basin-wide total was half again even the Bureau of Reclamationโs rosiest estimates of Colorado River flows. And no one wanted to cut their estimates, go home to tell their governor and legislators heโd had to diminish the stateโs envisioned future by a quarter or so.
Several of the frustrated negotiators thought they should abandon the whole idea of an interstate compact, but the federal representative and chairman, Herbert Hoover โ himself an engineer eager to see the big dam built โ persuaded them to stay with the idea for the rest of the year. They convened for some hearings around the west in the summer, and had a tour of the proposed big dam sites. But then Hoover and Coloradoโs representative to the commission, Delph Carpenter, began circulating the idea of a two-basin division to break the impasse over the seven-way division, and Hoover was able to convene a November charrette to work until a compact was done.
Toward the end of an eleven-day marathon at a resort near Santa Fe, with 18 transcribed sessions and who knows how many informal barroom and hotel room caucuses, Chairman Hoover summarized their situation:
“We finally reached, in effect, this general conclusion as to the form of the compact, and that was that none of the figures and data in our possession, or within the possibility of possession at this time were sufficient upon which we could make an equitable division of the waters of the Colorado River [in perpetuity]โฆ.ย [W]e make now, for lack of a better word, a temporary equitable division, reserving a certain portion of the flow of the river to the hands of those men who may come after us, possessed of a far greater fund of information; that they can make a further division of the river at such a time, and in the meantime we shall take such means at this moment to protect the rights of either basin as will assure the continued development of the river. (Text from the 12thย of 18 transcribed November meetings, boldface added)“
That was the Colorado River Compact as seen in process by the commission chairman: โa temporary equitable divisionโ to be refined and finished when โa greater fund of informationโ about both the riverโs flows and the flow of the future was known. No one โ with the probable exception of Delph Carpenter โ was very happy with the Compact the commissioners took home to their states. Arizona refused to ratify it, and it took several years to get it through the other six state legislatures. But the U.S. Congress was actually somewhat eager to develop the river, making its desert lands available for development, and decided that six of the seven states on board was good enough. The Boulder Canyon Project Act was passed in 1928, and Hoover โ then President โ was able to launch construction of not just the huge Hoover Dam, but Parker Dam as the holding bay for the Metropolitan Water Districtโs 250-mile aqueduct, and the Imperial Dam and All-American Canal to carry water to the Imperial and Coachella Valleys โ a major regional development that really set a course for the 20thย century.
Enabling that, and what followed over the next four or five decades, did achieve the Compact goal to โsecure the expeditious agricultural and industrial development of the Colorado River Basin,โ probably the major goal stated in its preamble (Article I) for most of those involved. But a century later we can say pretty definitely that its โtemporary equitable divisionโ (still apparently regarded as permanent), has not achieved most of the other goals listed in the preamble. It did not โprovide for the equitable division and apportionment of the use of the waters,โ either in the division between Basins explicit in Article III(a) nor in the relationship between the two Basins stated in Article III(d); it obviously did not โpromote interstate comityโ; and the two-basin division did not โremove causes of present and future controversies.โ If anything, the Compact created controversies with badly written sections like Article III(c) on the Mexican obligation, and Article III(d) on interbasin โobligations.โ (If you would like to review the Compact, you can find it here.)
More to the point โ it is possible now to achieve what the 1922 commissioners originally wanted: an equitable seven-way division of the use of the river with a share for Mexico, which renders the two-basin โtemporary divisionโ irrelevant and burdensome.
The seven-way division has been effected, not through interstate negotiation but through the โcontinued development of the riverโ; today, the seven states and Mexico all know, practically to the acre-foot, what has evolved as their share of the river as we have known it โ the 14.6 million acre-foot average flow of the development period, the 1930s through the 1990s.
Allotments for the three Lower Basin states were set by the Boulder Canyon Project Act in 1929 as acre-foot portions of the Compact allotment of 7.5 maf, and confirmed by the Supreme Court in its 1963-4 Arizona v. California decision. Mexico received its share, 1.5 maf, in a 1944 treaty negotiated through the U.S. State Department. And the four Upper Basin states negotiated a compact for their share of the river in 1948 โ by then known to be a variable quantity, usually less than the Compactโs allotment of 7.5 maf, so they divided their fluctuating share by percentages.
Native America in the Colorado River Basin. Credit: USBR
The โfederal reserved rightsโ of the Basinโs 30 Indian nations โ barely given a โplaceholderโ in the Compact โ have been shoehorned in as state responsibilities through the 1952 โMcCarran Amendmentโ to a resource bill; this says that all federal reserved water rights, for all public lands as well as the Indian reservations, have to be adjudicated in the state water courts. The โequityโ of this is questionable; some states have only a few Indian nations; Arizona has 22 of them. Most of the Indian nations that have not already achieved some water rights are working on โsettlementsโ out of court, negotiating with those who have been using water for which the Indians had a prior claim (dating from the creation of their reservation) for water and money with which to develop the water they can get. The federal government puts up much of the money for the development of Indian water rights; there is still a long way to go in correcting this long-standing dereliction and shame, but there has been more activity in the past couple decades than in the previous century.
The point being โ nearly everyone knows with some accuracy how much water they have had to use from the Colorado River โ in the 20th century. Hardly anyone is happy with the resulting numbers, but we also all know that this is all the water there is โ or was, in the 20th century. The river has been divided among the states and nations, de facto, if not yet de jure.
The structural deficit refers to the consumption by Lower Basin states of more water than enters Lake Mead each year. The deficit, which includes losses from evaporation, is estimated at 1.2 million acre-feet a year. (Image: Central Arizona Project circa 2019)
The alarming draw-down of the riverโs major reservoirs in the early 21stcentury to date has been only partially caused by the โdroughtโ and permanent climate-related aridification. The bulk of the draw-down has been a โstructural deficitโ stemming from the Lower Basin statesโ blithe refusal to incorporate their โsystem lossesโ โ evaporation and transpiration, riparian losses, etc โ and their portion of the Mexican share into their allotments, preferring to let the amenable Bureau release them as โsurplusโ from Powell and Mead storage โ a surplus that has not existed since the Central Arizona Project began to come on line after 1985, along with increased Upper Basin uses (still well below its โCompact allotmentโ). The Compact failed to include system loss provisions โ probably around 12-14 percent of the water that flows from the headwaters snowpack.
The good news there is that, in the planning for river management beyond 2026, the Lower Basin states have agreed to absorb the โstructural deficitโ and their share of the Mexican obligation into their river shares. The Upper Basin users have already absorbed their system losses by the time the Bureau moves Lower Basin water out of Powell.
It is not rocket science to lay out the seven-states-plus-Mexico division of the waters in a chart, a feat impossible in 1922, but largely accomplished de facto by the Compactโs century mark โ a chart without any reference to the โtemporary equitable divisionโ into two basins. If we were to eliminate the two-basin division form our future management plans, we would unload quite a lot of unnecessary baggage. We would be much closer to thinking of the Colorado again as one river, with one set of challenges for everyone, rather than this โCold Warโ between Upper and Lower.
The big challenge comes in trying to fit that division of the 14.6 maf river of 1930-2000 into the river we have today โ ~12.5 maf, and dropping incrementally but steadily.
If we lived in a fair, just and moral universe, resolution of management guidelines for the future of the one river would just be a matter of applying basic high school math: if a stateโs allotment (including a proportionate share of system losses) of a 14.6 maf river is X maf, what will be that stateโs new allotment if the riverโs volume drops to 12.5 maf? Or to 11.5 maf by 2050? Easy: you just convert the stateโs allotment to a percentage of the 14.6 maf river, and multiply those percentages by 12.5 maf, or whatever the flow has dropped too. Do that for all users and, presto, thereโs everyoneโs new 21st-century allotment, learn how to live with it โ
Wups. Uh-oh. One can already hear the โharrumphingโ firing up in the Imperial Valley: what about our senior water rights?! If you say we have to take the same cuts as everyone else, weโll see you in court!
The Interior Departmentโs current acting assistant secretary for water and science, Scott Cameron, actually spoke to that eventuality or probability in a meeting of water mavens in Arizona: โHaving senior water rights is a wonderful thing, but having senior water rights does not give you a free pass to ignore whatโs happening in the greater community.โ
Whatโs happening in the greater community is diminishing flows for everyone due to a warming, drying climate that is everyoneโs and no oneโs fault โ a problem of a different order of magnitude from the issues the senior-junior appropriation doctrine developed to resolve. If Asst. Secretary Cameronโs perception (unusually perceptive from an official in the Trump administration) were to prevail as federal policy, it might facilitate a serious discussion in the arid West about how far and how high a body of law should be applied, that originated for working out squabbles between neighbors โ with โfirst-come first-servedโ the one-size-fits-all resolution. A resolution that is usually transcended locally in dry times with โgentlemenโs agreementsโ to share the pain between neighbors who have also become friends.
Members of the Colorado River Commission, in Santa Fe in 1922, after signing the Colorado River Compact. From left, W. S. Norviel (Arizona), Delph E. Carpenter (Colorado), Herbert Hoover (Secretary of Commerce and Chairman of Commission), R. E. Caldwell (Utah), Clarence C. Stetson (Executive Secretary of Commission), Stephen B. Davis, Jr. (New Mexico), Frank C. Emerson (Wyoming), W. F. McClure (California), and James G. Scrugham (Nevada)
CREDIT: COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY WATER RESOURCES ARCHIVE via Aspen Journalism
The westerners who convened for the 1922 compact commission wanted to suspend at the interstate level the appropriation doctrine they all adhered at home, for good reasons involving the uneven pace of regional development. We are now confronting a reduced volume of water for everyone, caused by a changing climate that is no oneโs and everyoneโs fault. Is this not a problem on a scale with the problem that convened a Compact commission a century ago to suspend โ or more accurately, maybe, transcend โ the appropriation doctrine at the interstate level?
Well โ we keep getting news every day about the fairness, justice and morality of our small sector of the universe. Pray for rain; itโs more likely.
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
Colorado River “Beginnings”. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism
Click the link to read the article on the AZCentral.com website (Kate Gallego, Chad Franke, Tom Kiernan and Manuel Heart). Here’s an excerpt:
August 25, 2025
Key Points
The Colorado River, a vital resource for millions, has reached a critical tipping point, thanks to drought and overuse.
The river needs urgent, collaborative action and flexible solutions for long-term water security.
Failure to reach agreements risks costly litigation and uncertain outcomes.
Reservoirs like Lakes Mead and Powell are again approaching record lows, and every water user is being affected…Against this backdrop, we urgently need unified action. We must proactively adjust our plans given the Colorado Riverโs changing water supply. We must confront the crisis with urgency and collaboration to build a workable water future for the broad network of Colorado River interests.ย To succeed, comprehensive, forward-looking solutions must replace the current crisis-to-crisis management approach…
Solutions must be rooted in flexibility, innovation and cooperation โ and acknowledge both the urgency of todayโs water supply shortages and the need for long-term water reliability and resilience.ย Doing so will require the immediate development of durable agreements โ not just between Upper and Lower Basin states, but also among the states, U.S. and tribes, and between the U.S. and Mexico โ that re-balance water demands with the riverโs shrinking supply…Creating comprehensive, forward-looking solutions also requires immediate engagement with tribes, water users and other stakeholders. Their input is needed to tailor flexible strategies that meet the needs of different water users across various basin geographies, including the mountain headwaters, the Colorado Plateau and the desert Southwest…Without such tools and agreements, the Colorado Riverโs future will be decided by the courts following litigation that inevitably breeds a failure of dialogue, delays progress and leads to costly, drawn-out battles. At the end of that road lies a loss of local control as well as uncertain and harmful outcomes to water users throughout the basin.
Glen Canyon Dam May 2022. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots
Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):
August 18, 2025
The words โurgencyโ and โimmediate actionโ were used by Trump administration officials on Aug. 15 in releasing the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 24-month study for the Colorado River Basin.
The study sees a high probability of water levels of Lake Powell falling to within 48 feet of the minimum power pool by January. That elevation, 3,490 feet above sea level, is the reservoirโs lowest level at which hydroelectricity can be produced. That has not happened since soon after Powell began filling after completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1966.
โThis underscores the importance of immediate action to secure the future of the Colorado River,โ said David Palumbo, acting commissioner for the agency.
Scott Cameron, the acting assistant secretary for water and science in the Department of Interior, had similar words of warning to the seven states that share use of the river.
โAs the basin prepares for the transition to post-2026 operating guidelines, the urgency for the seven Colorado River Basin states to reach a consensus agreement has never been clearer,โ said Cameron. โWe cannot afford to delay.โ
The announcement cited โunprecedented droughtโ but made no mention of climate change. This seems to be a theme. [ed. emphasis mine]
Cameron, at the Getches-Wilkinson Centerโs annual water seminar in Boulder during June, talked for 24 minutes without once mentioning climate change. He even answered a question about climate change without using the phrase. He did seem to acknowledge it, saying that in the โreal worldโ there is less water than before, โand that is probably not going to change a whole bunch.โ
Might the situation be even worse than what Bureau of Reclamation has projected will be most likely?
A bias of optimism
On Aug. 14, a day before the bureauโs release of the 24-month study, John Fleck and others posted an analysis on Fleckโs Inkstain that warned the study would likely be overly optimistic.
The problem, explained Fleck and his co-authors, is that the โassumptions underlying the study do not fully capture the climate-change driven aridification of the Colorado River Basin.โ
The precipitation received from October through July in the Colorado River Basin fits in with a theme that is best understood when coupled with rising temperatures, which produces greater evaporation and transpiration. Image/Western Water Assessment
The bureau uses a 30-year average in predicting what lies ahead. However, using the hydrology of the Colorado River Basin since the 1990s no longer provides the same usefulness in predicting what lies ahead during the next 24 months. The climate is changing too fast.
In that paper, Milley and his co-authors argued that human-induced climate changes were altering the means and extremes of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and the rates of runoff in rivers. As such, they contended, using the old models to guide water management no longer worked as well.
In their posting at Inkstain, Fleck and his coauthors โ Anne Castle, Erick Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen and Katherine Tara โ noted that the Bureau of Reclamationโs 24-month study a year ago found that the โmost probableโ level for Powell would be 3,593 at the end of July 2025.
It was 38 feet lower than the projection. It had been another so-so or worse winter and then an early, warm spring.
This, they said, illustrated the bias toward optimism in the models used by the agency. That bias had been detailed in a 2022 study of past projections by a team led by Jian Wang of the Utah State Center for Colorado River Studies.
โMost probableโ in the Bureau of Reclamation projections occupied a band of 80% likelihood. The bureau also issues maximum and minimum probable scenarios.
Fleck and his team contend that the bureauโs โminimum probable scenario has become the most valuable in providing a reliable indicator of the futureโ for Colorado River flows.
This past winter was mediocre, near average snowfall in some basins but among the worst in the San Juans. Spring was warm or more in many places, and rains in July were almost entirely absent.
The preliminary estimated inflow into Powell for April through July was 41% of the average from 1991 through 2020, according to the bureauโs most-probable study. During July, runoff slipped to 12% of that 30-year average.
Might fortunes soon be reversed? Not likely in months ahead, said Fleck and his team. They noted this summerโs weak monsoon for most of the upper basin coupled with the seasonal outlook by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Together, they point to a warmer and drier than average fall.
โItโs a good bet that this trend will continue at least through winter,โ they wrote.
As it stands, levels in Lake Mead, downstream from Powell, will necessitate cuts in the lower-basin as required by several agreements reached between 2007 and 2019. Arizona is to see an 18% cut and Nevada a 7% cut in their annual apportionments. Mexico is to get 5% less than its annual allotment. In acre-feet, thatโs 412,000 for Arizona, 21,000 for Nevada, and 80,000 for Mexico.
A new agreement
The big story continues to be what agreements the seven basin states can achieve in recognition of the inadequacy of past agreements given reduced flows.
Drought as conventionally understood is part of the story, but only a part. A 2017 study by Jonathan Overpeck and Brad Udall, โThe 21st Century Hot Drought and Implications for the Future,โconcluded that between a third and a half of reduced flows in the Colorado from 2000 to 2014 could be attributed to the rising greenhouse gas emissions. They spoke about โmegadrought,โ a word now common in Colorado River discussions, as is โaridification.โ
This year has brought more studies that strengthen the evidence. Included is a study published just last week in Nature, that identifies new ways that the warming climate has altered the hydrology of Colorado and other southwestern states. See: โWhy rain and snow skip the Southwest.โ
In 2018, an agreement among the states was reached regarding how to deal with drought. It was universally recognized as an interim agreement, with a final agreement to be reached in advance of a 2026 deadline. That deadline is now close at hand.
That impending deadline was alluded to in the comments of the federal officials.
โHealth of the Colorado River system and the livelihoods that depend on it are relying on our ability to collaborate effectively and craft forward-thinking solutions that prioritize conservation, efficiency, and resilience,โ said Cameron, Interiorโs undersecretary, in the Aug. 15 announcement.
In June, Cameron had called on the Colorado River Basin states to submit details of a preliminary operations agreement by mid-November and share a final seven-state proposal by mid-February 2026. The plan would be to reach a final decision in the summer of 2026 with implementation beginning in October 2026.
Non-government organizations issued statements also calling for the states to figure out a way forward.
โThis is not just a crisis. Itโs also a call to action to use remaining time wisely to replace our current, reactive, emergency-based management framework with new, long-term solutions,โ said John Berggren, the regional policy manager for Western Resource Advocates. โWe canโt litigate our way out โ we must collaborate forward.โ
For many months, all reports suggested that the four-upper basin states โ who speak with one voice in these negotiations โ and the three lower-basin states remained far apart. A story on June 27 in the Las Vegas Review Journal described the meetings as โtenseโ and โdeadlocked.โ
Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico along with Colorado constitute the upper basin. Arizona, Nevada and California make up the lower basin.
Becky Mitchell, Coloradoโs representative in the negotiations, told a forum in Silverthorne covered by Big Pivots in May that hydrologic risk must be shared between the upper basin and the lower-basin states.
The Blue River flowing through Silverthorne just below Dillon Dam in May 2025. Photo/Allen Best
This sore spot has long festered. The Colorado River Compact of 1922 specified that the upper basin states โwill not cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depletedโ below an aggregate of 75 million acre-feet for any 10 consecutive years. The location is between Glen Canyon and the Grand Canyon.
But what if the river fails to deliver that much water? Upper basin states have delivered that volume so far, but thatโs mostly because Wyoming, in particular, has not developed what was expected 100 yeas ago.
Those who had originally gathered in Santa Fe in 1922 to negotiate the compact had understood drought, but only as a temporary thing. They had no extensive long-term perspective โ and chose to ignore what evidence was at hand, according to a 2019 book by Fleck and Kuhn, โScience be Dammed: How Ignoring Inconvenient Science Drained the Colorado River.โ
Coloradoโs beef and that of other upper-basin states has been that the two big dams on the river provided certainty for the lower-basin states to get water. However, the headwaters states have no certainty. They must live with what Mother Nature provides. They have balked at cutting water use to provide certainty for downstream states. They want the risk shared.
Natural flow proposal
In June came the first public word of what may have been a breakthrough. It is called the โnatural flow proposal.โ As explained by Tom Buschatzke, the director of Arizona Water Resources, to the Arizona Republic in a story on June 18, the idea is to focus less on who gets what and more on what the river can realistically provide.
โWe do have to recognize what the hydrologic risks are to us,โ he said after presenting the idea to a committee,โ and we have to kind of find an equitable way to share those risks.โ
That idea being discussed would employ a rolling three-year average of the natural flow of the river. Natural would be defined as the volume if there were no diversions and impoundments.
Buschatzke โ a frequent visitor at the Colorado River forum sponsored by the University of Coloradoโs Getches-Wilkinson Center each June โ pointed out that the goal would be to spread the pain equitably, not equally. The lower basin would need more water than the upper basin, which has still to develop all the water allocated it in the 1922 compact.
โIt is not 50-50,โ he told represents at the June 17 meeting. โI wonโt try to speculate on what the number might be.โ
California uses the most water of any state in the Colorado River Basin, partly for its cities along the Pacific Coast but a substantial amount for agriculture in the Imperial Valley. Photo December 2015/Allen Best
A few weeks later, John Entsminger, Nevadaโs representative in interstate talks, similarly was vague about details. โItโs not something where I can tell you what the score is in the third inning: the baseball game is still being played,โ he told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Details remain sparse, he added.
โEverybodyโs pretty much accepted that weโve got to come up with a new formula for dividing the river,โ Mark Squillace, an environmental law professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder, told the Las Vegas newspaper. โThe devilโs in the details about getting the numbers right.โ
According to the best information that Big Pivots was able to obtain, there is still no agreement about what the percentage should be, although it is not 50-50.
Mitchell, Coloradoโs representative on the Upper Colorado River Commission (and its acting chair), told the Review-Journal that the 2007 guidelines that provide the management map of the riverโs operations โare not ustainable, because the water is just not there. Itโs not in storage, and itโs not in the river.โ
For a late-June story in Politicoโs E&E, Mitchell described the natural flows idea as a math problem. โThe concept under discussion is that Powell would release a certain percentage of volume of the average of the last few years of natural flows, as measured at Lee Ferry,โ she said.
E&E described a more complex challenge.
โThe theory โ the premise of sharing the river based on how much water would travel downstream without dams or diversions or other human interventions โ is actually a complex mathematical problem, rife with potential pitfalls and technical issues.โ
This idea of basing releases from Lake Powell likely would take several years to implement. As such, it would not immediately impact levels in the reservoir.
As for the minimum power pool at Powell, thatโs the level at which hydroelectricity can no longer be generated. Some 16 municipal and cooperative electrical utilities in Colorado get power from the dam. Those amounts tend to be smaller, about 5% or less, although important if the utilities are stretching to achieve decarbonization goals.
The greatest value of Glen Canyon is that if the Western grid has a blackout, the grid can be restarted with hydropower from the dam.
And too, the role of Congress
As administrator of the two big dams in the basin and several smaller ones, the federal government must figure out how to manage them consistently with the agreements among the states. It is also the formal administrator among the lower-basin states.
At the conference in Boulder, Cameron clearly said the federal government wants the states to figure out the solution. However, he also said that if the states cannot come to agreement, the federal government, as the administrator of the infrastructure, has authority to set policy, too.
And finally, he mentioned that the whole package may need to go to Congress, as was the case with the Colorado River Compact. It was approved in 1929. (Arizona had refused to endorse the compact until much later).
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
Lake Powell at Wahweap Marina as seen in December 2021. Dwindling streamflows and falling reservoir levels have made it more likely that what some experts call a Colorado River Compact โtripwireโ will be hit in 2027. Credit: Heather Sackett/Aspen Journalism
Climate change appears to have driven an ongoing 25-year shortfall in winter rains and mountain snows across the U.S. Southwest, worsening a regional water crisis thatโs also related to hotter temperatures and growing demand. Multiple studies now suggest that human-caused climate change is boosting an atmospheric pattern in the North Pacific that favors unusually low winter precipitation across the Southwest.
This weather pattern โ known to scientists as a negative mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO โ is one phase of a slow-moving swing between warm and cool temperatures in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. The PDOโs monthly value for July was the lowest in 171 years of data (see Fig. 1 below).
Climate change was already implicated in warming temperatures that pull more moisture from the landscape and shorten periods of mountain snow cover, thus exacerbating the impacts of dry spells. But scientists had previously assumed that the PDOโs variations over decades, which affect the rainfall and snowfall itself, were largely natural.
A study published in Nature on Wednesday, August 13, finds that emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases and tiny sun-blocking particles called aerosols have driven long-term PDOchanges over the last few decades, depriving the Southwest of much-needed winter rain and snow.
Using new techniques to extract signal from noise in model output, the researchers found that โobserved PDO impacts โ including the ongoing multidecadal drought in the western United States โ can be largely attributed to human activity.โ [ed. emphasis mine}
Figure 1. Monthly variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from 1854 to present. Most months since 1998 have registered negative PDO values. Last monthโs reading of -4.00 (July 2025) was the lowest value in the entire 171-year dataset, and the current stretch of 67 consecutive months of negative PDO values is the longest on record. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)
For the past quarter-century, precipitation across the Southwest has been on par with the driest periods in modern history. As the landscape dries, sunshine is able to warm it more effectively, helping boost temperatures even more and worsening the drying effects on the rivers, reservoirs, and landscapes crucial for the Southwestโs growing population.
Until now, those temperature effects were believed to be the main human-caused climate factor in the mix.
But scientists looked more closely at the PDO in part because of its relationship to a better-known pattern, the El Niรฑo and La Niรฑa oscillations in the tropical Pacific that influence weather across the world. Shorter-term La Niรฑa events, lasting 1 to 3 years, are more common and can be stronger when the longer-term PDO phase is negative, and both of these patterns strongly favor drier-than-usual winters across the Southwest.
During the last 25 years, La Niรฑa has been in place for 12 winters versus just eight winters for El Niรฑo, a tilt that has helped to reduce winter precipitation in the Southwest. The latest outlook from NOAA predicts a near-even chance of La Niรฑa conditions yet again in 2025-26.
Figure 2. La Niรฑa causes the jet stream to move northward and to weaken over the eastern Pacific. During La Niรฑa winters, the Southwest tends to see warmer and drier conditions than usual. Since La Niรฑa conditions are more common during the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a negative PDO is likewise associated with warmer, drier conditions across the Southwest. (Image credit: NOAA)
The Southwestโs largest two reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, were both running at less than a third of capacity as of August 3, and total inflow for the water year ending this summer was expected to be only about 50% of average.
In recent years, the Southwestโs normally scorching heat has intensified to levels that are smashing record after record. On August 7, Phoenix reached 118 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest reading ever observed there so late in any summer in data going back 130 years.
Experts in the Phoenix area have documented a major spike in heat mortality over the past decade, as population and vulnerabilities increase along with the heat itself. More than a thousand heat-related deaths were recorded in 2023 and 2024 alone.
"Phoenix is experiencing record-breaking, prolonged extreme heat driven by climate change, pushing the city into uncharted territory with growing risks to health, infrastructure, and daily life." via weather.com/news/climate…
Even more disconcerting is what the new work suggests for the Southwest going forward. The Nature study warns that as long as human-produced greenhouse gases and aerosols continue to produce these effects, โthe PDO will remain persistent in its negative state, driving continued precipitation deficits in the western U.S.โ
Confounding expectations
The puzzling behavior of the Pacific over the last several decades has drawn increasing scrutiny, especially since itโs long been expected that 21st-century warming would lead to an El Niรฑo-like pattern. Instead, the Pacific has behaved in the opposite fashion. Itโs been unclear why model projections of the PDO have been off track for so long.
โI donโt think weโve untangled all this yet, but I think this opens up new possibilities for what models are missing,โ said Jeremy Klavans of the University of Colorado Boulder, lead author of the Nature paper.
Figure 3. A schematic showing where sea surface temperatures are generally above and below average during the positive (warm) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The โwarmโ refers to the horseshoe-like arc of warmer-than-average readings from the Gulf of Alaska along the west coast of North America and into the eastern tropical Pacific, where it often coincides with an El Niรฑo event. Since 2000, most years have featured the opposite pattern, with the horseshoe in blue instead of red and the eastern Pacific often in a La Niรฑa mode. (Image credit:ย Adapted by NOAA Climate.govย from original by Matt Newman based on NOAA ERSSTv4 data.)
Figure 2. La Niรฑa causes the jet stream to move northward and to weaken over the eastern Pacific. During La Niรฑa winters, the Southwest tends to see warmer and drier conditions than usual. Since La Niรฑa conditions are more common during the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a negative PDO is likewise associated with warmer, drier conditions across the Southwest. (Image credit: NOAA)
Plucking the signal of climate change out of decades of noise
The large year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability in the PDO makes it hard to detect subtle but important longer-term trends. Moreover, climate models tend to exaggerate the peaks and valleys in the PDOโs natural variability.
Scientists increasingly study questions like the PDOโs recent behavior using model ensembles โ dozens of simulations from the same model for the same period, with tiny variations in the starting-point data that account for inherent uncertainty in models and observations. Klavans and colleagues found that at least 70 simulations were needed in order for a model ensemble to extract the longer-term climate-change influence from the natural variations. Their project ended up drawing on 572 ensemble members from 13 separate models.
Like a sound mixer at a recording studio boosting an instrument that would otherwise be drowned out, the researchers amped up the strength of the PDOโs longer-term climate change signal while retaining its shorter-term variability. After this adjustment, the models ended up doing a much better job of replicating the recent multi-decade drop in winter precipitation across the Southwest. This finding suggests that the fainter, longer-term signal, obscured until now, is actually a crucial part of whatโs happening.
Based on prior work in the Atlantic Ocean, it appears that the climate-change impact on the PDO stems from greenhouse gas increases as well as the global evolution of sun-blocking air pollution over the last few decades.
โWeโve now demonstrated the signal-to-noise problem in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific,โ Klavans said. In both cases, the signals of longer-term climate change in atmospheric patterns were getting drowned out by the noise of natural variability. The techniques employed to get around this problem are helping to reveal strengths in model performance that can now be accessed, according to Klavans: โWe think this example is just scratching the surface of what models can tell us more broadly about regional climate impacts.โ
The biggest El Niรฑo events can sometimes push the PDO into a positive mode that can persist for years or decades, but the strong El Niรฑo of 2023-24 didnโt accomplish that feat. Next time around, Klavans will be watching intently: โIf the eastern equatorial Pacific starts warming, if we get an El Niรฑo-like response, does it flip the PDO?โ
More sleuthing bolsters the case
Another recent paper, published last month in Nature Geoscience, reinforces the idea that climate change itself has pushed the Southwest into a lower-precipitation mode since the 1980s. Using a variety of model simulations, the authors show that sun-blocking aerosol emissions appear to have teamed up with the influence of human-produced warming in the tropics to favor persistently high pressure in the North Pacific. In turn, this negative-PDO-like pattern has helped steer wintertime precipitation away from the Southwest.
Climate scientists refer to these chains of events as โforcingsโ, meaning that something other than natural variability has driven, or forced, changes to weather and climate. Forcings can be anything from a one-time massive volcanic eruption to decades of sun-blocking pollution or centuries of greenhouse-gas emissions.
โThe main takeaway is that thereโs this forced signal in historical droughts for the Southwest since 1980, not only in temperature but also in the precipitation changes,โ said lead author Yan-Ning Kuo of Cornell University.
Thereโs been some research suggesting that the long-expected climate-change trend toward El Niรฑo-like patterns in the Pacific could finally emerge later this century as the world continues to warm. But even if that occurs, โit is unlikely to substantially alleviate the currently projected future drought risk,โ Kuo and colleagues warn in their new paper.
โFor the longest time, we chalked these precipitation changes up to natural variability,โ said Cornellโs Flavio Lehner, a co-author on the paper. โI think weโre revisiting that, and it heightens the stakes. If indeed the forcings continue to act in this way, then precipitation decline in the Southwest may continue. It makes a much stronger case for human influenceRead: Wet winter wonโt fix Colorado River woes
Clues from 6,000 years ago
Yet another just-published study โ this one looking back thousands of years โ suggests that a warming planet itself, even without human-added greenhouse gases, can help push the PDO into its drier-in-the-Southwest mode for many years. This paper, also published in Nature Geoscience last month, focuses on the mid-Holocene period, about 6,000 years ago.
At that point, Earthโs 23,000-year precession cycle (basically a wobble around Earthโs rotation axis) had lined up Northern Hemisphere summer with perihelion, the planetโs closest approach to the Sun. As a result, winters were generally colder and summers warmer than today. Also, the current Sahara Desert had been layered with vegetation for millennia; it would be hundreds of years more before it would start morphing into the arid landscape that โSaharaโ brings to mind.
Although the causes were different from today, the climate was relatively warm across the world, making this study period useful for shedding light on whatโs happening now, said the studyโs lead author, Victoria Todd of the University of Texas at Austin.
When a set of 23 paleoclimate simulations from 17 models replicated this period, they produced a long-lived negative-PDO-like pattern. This matches up with winter precipitation records for the Southwest, inferred from new leaf-wax isotope records from sites in New Mexico and Colorado that extend back 12,000 to 14,000 years.
โWe found that Northern Hemisphere warming in the past, and what we see in the future projections, really does keep the North Pacific in this persistent sea surface temperature pattern that resembles the negative phase of the PDO, and that this drives long-term drought in the Southwest U.S.โ Todd said.
Todd and co-authors end their paper with a stark warning that captures the mood of all three recent studies:
โmodels may be underestimating the severity of future winter precipitation changes and the future risk of drought in the Southwest United States.โ
Clara Deser, a senior scientist at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research and a longtime researcher on variability and change in the Earth system, is among the coauthors on the papers led by Klavans and Kuo. โI still think there is a role for both natural variability and anthropogenic [human-related] influences on PDO trends over the past 30 years or so,โ Deser said. โBut the new research (which comes from independent lines of evidence) is pointing to a relatively larger role for the latter compared to the former.โ
Dive deeper: What exactly does โdroughtโ mean?
The term โdroughtโ is often used in multiple and overlapping ways that can get confusing. When precipitation is below average for an extended period, thatโs meteorological drought. When such a dry period affects soils and crops, itโs agricultural drought, and when it hits water supplies, itโs hydrological drought. More recently, the term ecosystem drought has come into use, referring to more general landscape drying.
The U.S. Southwest has dealt with all of these unwelcome guests over most of the last quarter-century. A number of high-profile studies have classified the period since 2000 as a megadrought, which refers to an intense, multi-decade drought โ in this case, an especially stark one in its impacts on the environment and society.
An analysis led by Park Williams (University of California, Los Angeles) deemed the period from 2000 to 2021 as the worst megadrought in at least 1,200 years for a broad region from southern Idaho and Oregon to northwest Mexico.
What about the drought subtypes? Precipitation has fallen persistently short of average in this megadrought period, with 17 out of 25 water years from 1999-2000 to 2024-25 running drier than the 20th-century average. Looking purely at meteorological drought, this has been a prolonged, high-impact event, yet itโs not completely unprecedented. Across the Southwest climate region (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah), total water-year precipitation from 1999-2000 through 2024-25 averaged 13.53 inches, according to NOAA. These values were actually a touch lower during several periods in the mid-20th century, including 13.42 inches from 1942-43 through 1966-67.
Figure 4. Average water-year precipitation (October through September), 1895-96 through 2024-25, for the Southwest region (the Four Corners states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah). Annual amounts are in green; the running five-year average is in red. The lowest five-year averages occurred in the mid-1950s and the early 2000s. The linear precipitation trend (not shown) is about 0.04 inch per decade, or about 0.52 inch from 1895-96 through 2024-25. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)
Itโs all too clear what has pushed this dry period into truly historic territory: a warming climate. Distinctly hotter temperatures across the Southwest โ rising about 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit over the past 130 years, close to the rate of global-scale warming โ have drawn more and more moisture out of the landscape.
Figure 5. Average annual temperatures (October through September), 1895-96 through 2024-25, for the Southwest region (the Four Corners states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah). (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)
In their 2022 study noted above, Williams and colleagues based their worst-megadrought designation on soil moisture, reconstructed over the past 1,200 years using proxy data from tree rings, whose width corresponds closely to annual moisture.
We canโt know for sure how much rain or snow fell across these 1,200 years. But Williams and colleagues estimated that without human-caused climate change, โthe turn-of-the-twenty-first-century drought would not be on a megadrought trajectory in terms of severity or duration.โ Based on model output, they attributed 42% of the 22-year drought (as defined by soil-moisture loss) to climate change. One could imagine that percentage going higher if the most recent PDO-related research above were taken into account.
The Bureau of Reclamation recently released its August 24-month study of the Colorado River, its projected water supplies, and the effect on reservoir levels and water cutbacks. Itโs a doozy that, according to the Bureau, reaffirms the โimpacts of unprecedented drought,โ and necessitates continued water-use reductions for Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico.
Thing is, it may actually be even worse than the feds predict.
Hereโs the chart for Lake Powell, showing reservoir levels for July, and projected levels for the maximum, minimum, and most probable inflow scenarios. Check it out:
Projected Lake Powell end-of-month physical elevations from the latest 24-Month Study inflow scenarios.
A couple of details struck me right off the bat. The first is that in order for the maximum scenario to come to fruition, there would have to be a big surge of flow in the Colorado River upstream from Lake Powell in October, November, and December (see how the blue line departs from the others in October?), followed by a massively snowy winter. Itโs possible, but seems pretty unlikely, given that inflows and water levels almost always drop in the fall and winter.
The second is that even in the minimum flow scenario, they are predicting that next yearโs spring runoff will increase lake levels by about eight feet, whereas this year the runoff only boosted the level by four feet. So even the worst case scenario is better than the most recent reality. For the most probable scenario to work out, meanwhile, this coming winter would have to be far snowier than this past one โ possible, but I wouldnโt bank on it.
Now, I donโt really know what Iโm talking about here. But John Fleck, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, et al, most certainly do. And they wrote a piece warning that the Bureau of Reclamationโs forecasts historically tend toward the optimistic. โWhatever you see in Reclamationโs report of the โMost Probableโ reservoir levels for the next two years,โ they write on Fleckโs Inkstain blog, โwe must prepare for things to be much worse.โ
They remind readers that last year, Reclamation predicted Lake Powell would most probably be up to 3,593 feet above sea level by the end of this July. In fact, it was at 3,555 feet (and has dropped another four feet since then). So, yeah, Rec was way the heck off, and it certainly wasnโt the first time. Fleck and company say this is because the study does not โfully capture the climate-change driven aridification of the Colorado River Basin.โ
This all matters because Reclamation bases water deliveries and cuts on these studies. And if they have an โoptimistic bias,โ then it could affect planning, and may lead to Lake Powellโs levels dropping far faster than predicted, which could in turn lead to another โChallenge at Glen Canyonโ a la 1983, albeit due to too little water rather than too much.
It has once again prompted the Utah Rivers Council, Glen Canyon Institute, and Save the Colorado to call for the feds to overhaul the river outlet tubes and provide a bypass outlet for Glen Canyon Dam that will allow water to be released safely when levels drop below the minimum power pool.
The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson
Thunderheads at sunset over the Four Corners Country. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
It always began with a hot summerโs day in late July or early August. The sun beating down from a cloudless noontime sky, the high growl of lawnmowers harmonizing in the distance, the pungent smell of freshly cut grass. Stillness. Maybe a bit of loneliness, too, as the other neighborhood kids are off at their other parentโs house, or at summer camp, or whatever. Maybe my brother will take me fishing with him. Put the worm on the hook, toss it into the murky pool upstream from the bridge, grow impatient and decide to catch the little bullheads instead. Mottled sculpin, actually. The riverโs low this time of year, low enough to drag an old log in and ride it downstream for a bit till it bucks us off and we scramble to stand up on the slippery rocks in the current, and thatโs when we notice the sun is not so bright and look up to see towering thunderheads all billowy above Smelter Mountain and the breeze kicks up prickly sand and throws it at us and suddenly itโs not hot anymore and itโs time to get home before the rain and the lightning, even though our jeans and shirts and TG&Y sneakers are soaking wet already.
We jog through the park and up the hill and another block to the house and I stay out in the yard to await the storm. The wind bends the big maple and elm and ash trees, threatens to tear another branch off the old apricot, rushes through my hair. The sky, now, is dark grey, almost cobalt blue. A flash of lightning โฆ one-one-thousand, two-one-thousand, three โ- boom! Itโs getting close. And then the first drop of rain hits my outstretched hand, big and cold, and I run onto the porch to revel in the petrichor and the tempest to come.
Butte and monsoon sky, Southeastern Utah. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
It is the monsoon season in the Southwest, which, once upon a time, meant that a violent thunderstorm would arrive every afternoon, bringing huge amounts of precipitation in a short period of time, perhaps in the form of hail or sleet, leading to gully busters and flash floods and overflowing gutters and a spike in the riverโs flow. Then the clouds would move on, the sun would return for the last hour or two of the day, and steam would rise from the pavement, giving the arid town a glimpse of sultriness.
It has always been my favorite time of year, especially in Durango and the Animas Valley. Thereโs just something about the combination of colors: The slate-blue sky against the desert-varnish-striped Entrada sandstone against the deep red Cutler and Chinle formation against the emerald green of irrigated hayfields. And the weird patterns the storms follow as they move through the valley. Downtown can be deluged, while just north or south of town stays bone dry.
Horses, sky, Ute Mountain. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
But then, each part of the West is special during the monsoon: The mountains are downright frightening, especially when youโre rushing to summit a peak before the storm and you look over to see your companionโs hair standing on end. Canyon Country can be a blast, so long as youโre in an elevated area where you can watch the water spill off sandstone cliffs and race through sandy arroyos and you donโt have to drive back across that arroyo to get to work or something. And down in Tucson and Phoenix it often provides extra excitement in the form of dust clouds, then crazy lightning and thunder displays, followed by torrents that provide a bit of relief from the searing heat.
This year, however, the monsoon has so far failed to arrive. In fact, over the last decade or so, it seems to have been far less reliable generally than it was in my youth. Memory, however, is fallible, especially when it comes to recalling weather patterns from the distant and even not so distant past. So I checked the records, and they verify that Iโm not totally fabricating things here.
Durangoโs online records only go back to 2000, so they donโt do me much good. Instead, I relied on Mesa Verde National Park, which has records back to the 1920s (but tends to be drier than Durango). Based on a random sampling from each decade, it would appear that the monsoon nearly always delivers in parts of July and August, with normal monthly precipitation totals of 1.4โ and 2.05โ respectively. However, my memory of nearly daily storms was off: Even way back when I was a kid, it only rained every three days or so, sometimes less often. Meanwhile, the more recent past hasnโt been quite as bad as I thought. The July-August precipitation totals were below normal for six of the last ten years, and above normal during the other four. Not great, but not catastrophic.
Still, August is more than halfway over and the two month total so far is only .27โ of precipitation, all of which fell in July.
Dark sky, road, ball. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
***
The result, naturally, is lower-than-normal streamflows (which were already down due to the lack of snow last winter and above-normal temperatures). This isnโt only bad for us terrestrial water users, but also harms fish and other aquatic life, especially when accompanied by high water temperatures. The Yampa River in northwestern Colorado, for example, is running at just 56 cubic feet per second at the USGSโs Deerlodge Park gauge, which is not good. But more concerning is that the water temperature has been shooting up to 81ยฐ F during the day. Trout start to struggle at around 70ยฐ.
๐ซฃ Correction ๐
Remember the Monkeywrenching essay I wrote last week? I have been informed by a very reliable source, eyewitness, and possible accomplice โ who will remain anonymous, of course โ that I was wrong about my father and companions burning a single billboard near Silverton. Hereโs how it really unfolded:
The Colorado River flows near Parker, Arizona on August 5, 2025. The Colorado River Indian Tribes want to give the river the same legal rights as a person, taking millennia of cultural values and putting them into law. Alex Hager/KUNC
Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Alex Hager):
August 20, 2025
This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.
In far western Arizona, the dusty beige expanse of desert stretches as far as the eye can see. Under the baking summer sun, which regularly pushes temperatures above 110 degrees in the summer, even scrubby desert bushes can struggle to survive.
But in the middle of that desert, the Colorado River creates a striking strip of green.
The river winds through the valleys and deserts of the Southwest, carrying Rocky Mountain snowmelt hundreds of miles away, giving life to places like Parker, Arizona. Itโs home to the Colorado River Indian Tribes โ one of 30 federally recognized tribes in the Colorado River Basin, but one of the few whose land includes a stretch of the river itself.
โIt’s our lifeblood,โ said Dillon Esquerra, a member of the tribe who serves as its water resources director. โIt’s who we are. It’s part of our identity.โ
People in this community have deep cultural ties to the river that go back millennia. Many of those people, Esquerra said, have a close personal relationship with its life-giving water.
โWe look at it as something that nurtures us,โ he said, โSo we have to protect it.โ
Dillon Esquerra, water resources director for the Colorado River Indian Tribes, poses in the ‘Ahakhav Tribal Preserve near Parker, Arizona on August 6, 2025. โ[The Colorado River] is our lifeblood,โ he said. โIt’s who we are. It’s part of our identity.โ Alex Hager /KUNC
Now, the Colorado River Indian Tribes, often referred to as CRIT, is trying to take those long-held cultural ideas and put them into law. They are planning to establish legal personhood status for the Colorado River, giving it some of the same rights and protections a human could hold in court. No government, tribal or otherwise, has given these kinds of rights to the Colorado River before.
The effort comes at a critical juncture in the riverโs future. Climate change means thereโs less water in the river each year, and steady demand from cities and farms is stretching that supply thin. The regionโs indigenous people have largely been shut outfrom decisions about its management, despite a long history of using โ and living alongside โ the river long before it was divided and allocated according to the laws of white settlers.
CRIT, in essence, is trying to work within those laws to get some representation for a river that it sees as a living, beleaguered individual.
People along the river
The people of CRIT are river people. Itโs in their name. The traditional name of the Mohave, Hamakhav, means โpeople along the river.โ
CRIT itself is a relatively modern construct, a reservation established by the U.S. government that puts four different ethnic groups under the umbrella of one tribal government. The tribeโs current reservation lands were originally occupied by the Mohave people, then the Chemehuevi. In the 1940s and 1950s, Hopi and Navajo people were relocated to the reservation from further north.
What many of those people share, especially those who grew up on CRITโs riverside reservation, is a deep reverence for the Colorado River.
The Colorado River flows into Parker, Arizona on August 5, 2025. The river holds deep cultural importance to the people of the Colorado River Indian Tribes. “We’re supposed to be the stewards of these gifts from our creator,” said Anisa Patch, a tribal council member. Alex Hager/KUNC
In our culture, the river is precious,โ said Anisa Patch, a member of the CRIT tribal council who is among those pushing for legal personhood status. โWe’re supposed to be the stewards of these gifts from our creator. That’s what was taught to us by my grandmother, our aunts, our other relatives. It’s in the stories.โ
Patch explained that personhood is a way to take those deeply-held cultural and spiritual values and put them into a lasting, enforceable code โ one that will stay in writing across generations and changes in political leadership.
โWe want to have a stake in the ground to stand firm on,โ she said. โTo say that you have to recognize this is something not just personal to us, but something of cultural significance, something of significance to life itself for a lot of people.โ
A river at a crossroads
CRITโs decision to declare personhood status for the Colorado River is a timely one.
The river is used by nearly 40 million people and a massive agriculture industry across seven states. That includes major cities like Denver and Los Angeles, as well as farms that send produce to grocery shelves across the nation. It has been cut and divided and redirected in ways that exemplify humanityโs attempts to defy the design of nature. The Colorado River is stored in reservoirs that represent historic feats of engineering. Its water is pumped hundreds of miles through tunnels and canals that carve through deserts and mountains.
With the river portioned out by a complicated web of physical and legal infrastructure, CRITโs leadership worries that there isnโt much water left for the river itself, nor the plants and animals that rely on it.
โWe’ve taken, we’ve taken, we’ve taken, we’ve taken from this river,โ said Amelia Flores, CRITโs chairwoman. โWe’re not giving back. We’re not being reciprocal and giving back.โ
The sun rises over a boat dock on the Colorado River near Parker, Arizona on August 6, 2025. Boaters visiting the Colorado River Indian Tribe’s land and riverside casino resort provide an economic benefit to the community. Alex Hager/KUNC
Right now, the Colorado River is at a crossroads. Policymakers are negotiating a new plan to share its water after the current rules expire in 2026, and they are facing calls to implement painful, permanent cuts to some areasโ water supplies.
A Supreme Court decree, Arizona v. California, recognized CRIT as having the most senior water rights on the lower Colorado River, and among the most senior in the entire basin. That means CRIT has some of the most legally untouchable water rights along the lower half of the Colorado River, making the tribe the last to face cutbacks in times of shortage.
Longstanding legal precedent means the fast-growing Phoenix area would likely be the first to face cutbacks. As that possibility settles in, cities and municipalities in the nationโs 10th-largest metro area are knocking on CRITโs door, looking to lease some of the tribeโs water. The tribeโs land is about 130 miles west of Phoenix, straddling the Arizona-California border.
Tribal leaders said the new legal protections would serve two purposes: a symbolic one and a practical one. The first is about sending a message.
As those Phoenix-area cities come to do business with CRIT, those legal protections would force outside governments and water agencies to sign deals acknowledging the nuanced importance of the river.
โIt’s not just going to be an economic transaction,โ said John Bezdek, a water attorney employed by the tribe. โIt’s going to be one that talks about the river, the needs of the community and how those are intertwined.โ
Colorado River water flows through La Paz County, Arizona on August 6, 2025. The Central Arizona Project canal carries water from near the Colorado River Indian Tribes reservation to Phoenix and Tucson. Cities in the Phoenix area may look to the tribe in search of more water amid the threat of mandatory cutbacks to their existing Colorado River supplies. Alex Hager/KUNC
The second purpose, Bezdek said, is more practical.
Tribal council members are considering setting up a fund for the river, and anybody leasing water from the tribe would have to pay into it in order to do business. That money could be used for habitat restoration along the river, like improving wetlands, setting up ponds for migrating birds or expanding a nature preserve on the reservation. It could also boost tribal membersโ access to the river by funding new parks or designated swimming areas.
The money could also be used to teach tribal youth about the importance of the Colorado River.
โWe want to keep that essence alive as much as we can,โ Flores said. โAnd if the essence is in this Western way of thinking, then so be it, because the next generation coming up may not have that cultural tie, that religious tie to the river.โ
Beyond the Colorado River
While legal personhood for the Colorado River would be new, the idea of giving rights to an element of nature has been around for a while.
CRITโs effort is part of the โrights of natureโ movement, which has seen tribal and non-tribal governments around the world try to establish protections for the waters, lands and plants that are important to them.
Flores said the idea for Colorado River personhood came from a series of trips to New Zealand, where she canoed the Whanganui River with the indigenous Mฤori people. They achieved legal personhood for the river in 2017 after one of New Zealandโs longest-running court cases.
Cases like the Whanganui, and a handful of similar legal efforts in the United States, can provide some insights on what might happen with this historic rights of nature declaration on the Colorado River.
Amelia Flores, chairwoman of the Colorado River Indian Tribes, poses near the tribe’s government offices on August 6, 2025. Tribal leaders view legal personhood as a way to put their cultural values and reciprocal relationship with the river into law. Alex Hager/KUNC
Erin OโDonnell, a senior lecturer at the University of Melbourne in Australia, researches water law with a focus on the global rights of nature movement. OโDonnell said those rights can be a โpowerful transformative process to shift human relationships with rivers,โ but also a โsword that can cut both waysโ by inciting legal backlash, especially in the U.S.
OโDonnell cited a 2019 case in which the city of Toledo, Ohio, established a โbill of rightsโ for Lake Erie, and was promptly sued by a farming corporation. Not long after, the bill of rights was struck down in court for being โunconstitutionally vague.โ
โWe have seen significant backlash in the United States,โ OโDonnell said. โA real rejection of the idea that nature should have rights, and a kind of fear-based reaction that says, โI’m going to sue to dismantle these rights and make them invalid before they can be weaponized against me.โโ
OโDonnell said that tribal rights of nature declarations are often perceived differently, though, because they are focused on humansโ relationship with nature, not just legal rights. In cases like CRITโs, she said, granting legal personhood to a river can start to change the way that people outside the river think about its water and health.
โThe most successful examples of rights of nature around the world have been the ones that are indigenous led,โ OโDonnell said. โThey tend to be the ones that get less backlash. Not necessarily no backlash, but certainly a lot less.โ
New Zealandโs Whanganui River, which directly inspired CRITโs legal push, OโDonnell said, is โan outstanding example of almost no backlash.โ
Cars exit the Colorado River Indian Tribes reservation on August 5, 2025. Tribal leaders said they would use legal personhood rights to fund habitat improvements along the river and education programs for the community’s youth. Alex Hager/KUNC
The biggest questions about how CRITโs declaration will play out have to do with how the riverโs new rights will be deployed in court.
The Colorado River will only have legal personhood under CRIT tribal law, which only applies to the water that it has the legal right to use and lease.
So, if a faraway water user, outside of tribal land, does something to the river that impacts the stretch running through CRITโs land, can they be sued? OโDonnell said that it depends a lot on how the new law is written.
Bezdek said CRIT does not plan to use legal personhood status to go after a person or entity that is harming the river outside of tribal lands, which would fall outside of tribal law.
But, OโDonnell said, creating legal personhood for the Colorado River could leave the door open to lawsuits. Another case in the U.S. gives us clues about how that might play out.
In 2018, the White Earth Band of Ojibwe in Minnesota recognized the rights of manoomin, or wild rice. Courts have mostly interpreted those protections narrowly and havenโt held faraway entities liable for harm to the water rice needs to grow. That example, OโDonnell said, shows it would be difficult for similar cases on the Colorado River to succeed.
New tools for an uncertain future
How CRITโs plans will shape the broader debate over the future of the Colorado River remains to be seen. Tribes have largely been excluded from negotiations about sharing its water. Many of them have directly called for greater inclusion in todayโs talks. For the most part, tribes still do not have a formal role in the state and federal discussions that will shape the riverโs next chapter.
A personhood declaration may not directly change that, but one tribal law expert says itโs worth trying anyway.
โWe have to recognize that what has happened to date hasn’t really worked, but the river is still in decline,โ said Heather Tanana, a member of the Navajo Nation and a law professor at the University of Denver. โWe’re still over-allocating and over-using, so turning to new ideas, new tools, definitely should be explored, and rights of nature is one of those.โ
Tanana said rights of nature can change the way people think about the natural world at a time when the Colorado River faces complicated, unprecedented challenges.
d Dillon Esquerra, water resources director for the Colorado River Indian Tribes, watches water flow into an irrigation canal near Parker, Arizona on August 6, 2025. “โAs far I’m concerned,โ he said, โWe’ve always looked at the river as a person.โ Alex Hager/KUNC
Only one tribe in the U.S. has succeeded in giving rights of nature to a river. The Yurok tribe secured legal personhood for the Klamath River, which runs through Oregon and California. Amy Bowers Cordalis, a Yurok member and lawyer for the tribe, said it was a โ100% good ideaโ for CRIT to pursue legal personhood.
โTribal rights of nature is a really important step in bringing social, economic and environmental justice to tribes,โ Cordalis said. โBecause it is a declaration of the tribeโs relationships with the natural environment. Itโs a critical step into bringing those values and rights into modern U.S. law.โ
Cordalis said the Yurok Tribeโs personhood declaration has had impacts outside of the courtroom. Putting tribal wisdom and ecosystem health at the forefront of decision making gave people โtremendous hope.โ
โHowever, CRIT decides to approach this,โ Cordalis said. โIf itโs consistent with their values, their sovereignty, the future they want to create, then it is a positive step in the right direction.โ
While rights of nature may be a modern legal tool, the values they represent go back generations.
Dillon Esquerra, CRITโs water resources director, stood amid the tall reeds and grasses of the ‘Ahakhav Tribal Preserve, a backwater of the Colorado River, where native plants and animals thrive across more than 1,200 acres of protected habitat. In the background, birds chirped and cooed. Under the waterโs surface, fish flitted in and out of clustered aquatic plants.
โAs far as I’m concerned we’ve always looked at the river as a person. It’s an entity,” said Esquerra. “It’s what we rely on to survive, you know. It is a person to us. It’s a living, breathing person.โ
โItโs a really scary time to be living in the basin and trying to help with water management at a time where thereโs so much fear and stress,โ she said.
Directing the Colorado River Program, Hawkins will lead teams working within seven U.S. states, 30 tribal nations and Mexico. Programs range from on-the-ground conservation projects to basinwide policy issues and interstate negotiations.
Colorado water officials announced Wednesday a rough plan to figure out how the state would handle an unwelcome specter in the Colorado River Basin: forced water cuts.
Mandatory water cuts are possible under a 103-year-old Colorado River Compact in certain circumstances, mainly if the riverโs 10-year flow falls too low. Itโs a possibility that is one or two โbad yearsโ away, some experts say.
Colorado, however, does not have a clearly defined plan, or regulations, for how exactly it would handle such forced water cuts. Itโs time to start preparing, according to state engineer Jason Ullmann, Coloradoโs top water cop.
Over the years, Coloradans on both sides of the Continental Divide have asked about these โcompact administration regulations,โ Ullmann told state lawmakers during the Water Resources and Agriculture Review Committee hearing Wednesday in Steamboat Springs.
โWeโve heard those questions,โ Ullmann, director of the Division of Water Resources, said as hundreds of water professionals listened at the Colorado Water Congress Summer Meeting.
If the riverโs flow falls below a 10-year rolling average of about 82.5 million acre-feet, the Lower Basin states โ Arizona, California and Nevada โ could demand that the Upper Basin send more water downstream based on the 1922 Colorado River Compact. In the water world, this is often called a โcompact call.โ
The Upper Basin states โ Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming โ argue that the trigger is actually 75 million acre-feet because of a difference in legal opinions about how the basin states should meet their obligations to share Colorado River water with Mexico.
That 10-year average flow was forecast to be about 82.8 million acre-feet by September 2026. If the flow falls below the tripwire, it would cause a legal mire that could take years to sort out.
State officials said Colorado is in compliance and expects to remain so in the future. If a compact call ever happened, it would be a historic first for the Colorado River Basin.
Colorado officials would need to be able to send more water downstream. But the state doesnโt have regulations to say who cuts back, where the water comes from, when cuts happen or how it would track the water to make sure it would end up where it needed to go.
State officials have debated whether they should even have these discussions in light of larger basin negotiations over water use. Some people wanted to focus the stateโs resources on the negotiations. Others feared that finding water supplies that could be cut would weaken the stateโs stance that it has no extra water to spare.
Based on Ullmannโs remarks, the state is shifting its next course of action: many, many feedback meetings with communities.
This is pretty big news, said state Sen. Dylan Roberts, a Frisco Democrat, asking for more details about the timeline.
This winter and spring, state officials will reach out to key water user groups to host small listening sessions to hear their thoughts on the need for compact administration regulations, Ullmann said.
After that, the state will hold broader public meetings to get more input.
โItโs not something that we intend on doing in a vacuum,โ Ullmann said. โItโs important for everybody in the state of Colorado that this would be a very transparent question.โ
The state has already started on another key task when it comes to managing mandatory water cuts: improving how the Western Slope measures its water diversions.
โYou canโt manage what you canโt measure,โ Ullmann said.
Western Slope water users do already measure their use, but the measurements are not as advanced or consistent as in other river basins where Coloradans already curtail their use to meet interstate water sharing obligations, he said.
The state has already made progress on improving measurement rules and requirements in northwestern Colorado, southwestern Colorado and the Gunnison River area. Water diversions along the Colorado River in western Colorado are next up, a process that will wrap up in November.
Colorado could also adapt to the prospect of forced cuts by creating a โconservation pool,โ like a savings account that could be tapped in the event of a compact call, according to other water experts who spoke to lawmakers.
Some pinned their hopes on the stateโs Colorado River negotiators who have been charged with reaching a seven-state agreement for how to manage the basinโs major reservoirs after the current operating rules expire in 2026.
โWeโre not going to have a compromise unless they [the Lower Basin] waive compact compliance threats. We just canโt enter into any agreement with that,โ said Andy Mueller, general manager of the Colorado River District.
Those negotiations have been stalled over fundamental issues like how to cut back on water in the basinโs driest water years.
Coloradoโs Colorado River Commissioner, Becky Mitchell, told lawmakers Wednesday that the discussions continue to be challenging. Negotiators have until November to share more information about a seven-state agreement with the federal government.
โWhether or not we reach a seven-state consensus, all of us will be forced to deal with this reality in one way or another,โ Mitchell said. โBut today, what weโre hearing from our counterparts is they may be unwilling to reduce their uses in some dry years. It appears they believe that this gap should somehow be filled by the Upper Basin water, using any means necessary.โ
Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Politics website (Eugene Buchanan). Here’s an excerpt:
Tribal leaders are pushing for a seat at the negotiating table, where allocation and management of the Colorado River will be determined.ย The representatives from tribal nations joined a panel discussion called โColorado River: The Emerging Role of Tribes in the 2026 Negotiations,โ moderated by the Nature Conservancyโs Western Colorado Water Project Director Celene Hawkins, at the Colorado Water Congress in Steamboat Springs. During the panel, water executives from several of the 30 tribes relying on the Colorado River Basinโs water talked about their challenges and successes in managing the precious resource. While Native American Tribes hold significant water rights in the Colorado River Basin, their role in the systemโs management is limited. Key hurdles, they said, include funding to implement water programs, infrastructure improvements, and water accountability…
โIn the past, tribes have been treated as an afterthought when it comes to water issues and negotiations,โ said Lisa Yellow Eagle. โBut now weโre having open, honest dialogue.โ
Native America in the Colorado River Basin. Credit: USBR
The Colorado River Water Conservation District spans 15 Western Slope counties. Voters across the district are considering a mill-levy increase that would raise the River Districtโs budget by $5 million, funding a variety of water-related projects.
Colorado River District/Courtesy image
The Colorado River District Board of Directors unanimously approved and adopted a new five-year strategic plan at its quarterly meeting on July 15โ16, 2025. The new Strategic Plan outlines a clear vision and action-oriented roadmap for advancing the Districtโs mission to lead in the protection, conservation, use, and development of the water resources of the Colorado River Basin for the benefit of West Slope water users.
The newly adopted plan is the product of a year-long collaborative effort between the Board, staff, and strategic consultants. Through surveys, interviews, retreats, and intensive staff workgroup sessions, the plan identifies focused priorities and initiatives aligned with the evolving water challenges facing the West Slope.
โThis plan is the result of close collaboration between our Board, staff, and consulting team, and it charts a strong course for the next five years,โ said Marc Catlin, Board President of the Colorado River District. โIt positions the River District to act as a leader, respond quickly to change, and deliver real, lasting benefits to West Slope communities.โ
The new Strategic Plan is built around three key focus areas: Community Protection, Trusted Resource, and Recognized Leader on Colorado River Matters. It outlines goals and actionable steps to address the water needs of western Colorado in a hotter, drier future, protect water resources for agriculture and local communities that rely on them, and reinforce the River Districtโs role as a trusted, data-informed voice in water policy across the district and the basin. The plan also includes efforts to support core organizational services and retain staff, ensuring that essential day-to-day work continues alongside new strategic priorities.
โThe Strategic Plan is a collaborative, working strategy that affirms our commitment to our constituents and communities,โ said Amy Moyer, the Districtโs Chief of Strategy. โImplementation is already underway, and weโre building internal structures to ensure that the initiatives are aligned with the realities of Coloradoโs water future.โ
To support implementation, the River District plans to develop internal workgroups for each focus area and track progress through regular updates to the Board each July, with quarterly updates embedded into staff reports throughout the year. The River District extends its gratitude to the Board and all who contributed to the planning process. The complete 2025-2030 Strategic Plan is available at ColoradoRiverDistrict.org.
There was a very interesting session on Day 2, “Tools and Techniques in Agricultural Water Conservation“. During the session Eaโmon OโToole (Ladder Ranch) made this point: There needs to be a streamlined process for storage less than 15,000 AF. Let’s construct storage high in the mountains so the conserved water doesn’t evaporate from Lake Mead. He also mentioned that there is no way to shepherd conserved water downstream.
In defense of the irrigation methods on his ranch he added: I create habitat with flood irrigation. For me the ducks, etc. are just as important as my crop.
As of Tuesday, the Animas River was running noticeably low โ at 35% normalcy for this time of year, according to a recentย SnoFloย report. According to U.S. Geological Surveyย data, the streamflow on Tuesday was at 153 cubic feet per second, and its gauge height was measured at 2.17 feet. Last week, the flow sat around 199 cfs, with the water height resting near the 2.24-foot level, representing a small piece of a larger decline seen historically across the riverโs history…
Aquatic wildlife can be impacted by low river levels, said John Livingston, spokesman with Colorado Parks and Wildlife. One effect of low water levels is an overgrowth of riverbed vegetation. Algae, in an attempt to get closer to the sun, may grow thicker and taller than usual, Livingston said. In the Animas River, blue-green algae blooms, also called cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms, are the most likely culprits of this overgrowth, he said.
Colorado River water flows through La Paz County, Arizona on August 6, 2025. The Central Arizona Project is among the agencies facing cutbacks on water supply while the river is under shortage conditions. Alex Hager/KUNC
Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Alex Hager):
August 15, 2025
This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.
The latest projections for the Colorado River are out, and they paint a picture of more dry conditions and dropping reservoirs.
The river supplies water to nearly 40 million people across the Southwest, and itโs stretched thin by climate change and steady demand. New data from the Bureau of Reclamation shows low inflows and dropping water levels at the nationโs two largest reservoirs โ Lake Powell and Lake Mead. This is just the latest bad news in the midst of a megadrought going back more than two decades.
Projected Lake Mead end-of-month physical elevations from the latest 24-Month Study inflow scenarios.
Projected Lake Powell end-of-month physical elevations from the latest 24-Month Study inflow scenarios.
The river will enter 2026 in a โTier 1 Shortage,โ under which Arizona and Nevada will face mandatory cutbacks to their water supply. While they put some water users in an uncomfortable pinch, those cutbacks arenโt raising the same alarm bells they once did. Dry conditions and water reductions have become a sort of new normal. Shortage conditions for the lower Colorado River basin were first declared in 2021, and have been in place since.
On the ground, the agencies that have to deal with these cutbacks seem to be adapting. Major water users tout their conservation efforts. The towns and cities that are most likely to face permanent reductions to their water use are putting hundreds of millions of dollars into systems that will steel them against smaller water deliveries in the future.
This 2023 diagram shows the tubes through which Lake Powell’s fish can pass through to the section of the Colorado River that flows through the Grand Canyon. Credit: USGS and Reclamation 2023
Meanwhile, further upstream, dropping levels at Lake Powell are creating a near-term crisis. The new federal water data shows the reservoir ending this year only 27% full. If it drops much lower, the reservoir could fall below the pipes which allow water to flow through hydropower generators inside the dam โ jeopardizing electricity generation for about five million people across seven states. The new data shows that could happen as soon as November 2026.
The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson
Policymakers who can shape the regionโs long-term response to dry conditions have been facing mounting calls for action. They are under pressure to come up with new rules for managing the river in the long-term before the current guidelines expire in 2026.
Cynthia Campbell, who directs a water policy research center at Arizona State University, said instead of urgently working on a long-term plan, those policymakers seem to have spent the past few years โgamblingโ on the idea that water might come back and reverse the crisis at major reservoirs.
โIf they were betting on that,โ she said, โThen they’re losing, because it is continuing to march on. Mother Nature is continuing to march on, and we’re continuing to see declines in the system.โ
While some small glimmers of hope have emerged from negotiations, water managers from the seven states that use the Colorado River seem stuck at an impasse.
โWe have yet to see any courage in the sense of making choices that will bolster long-term system reliability,โ said Campbell, who formerly served as a top water lawyer for the city of Phoenix. โThere seems to be an unwillingness on the collected parties to do that, and that is not good news.โ
Climate scientists say the riverโs dry conditions are unlikely to turn around anytime soon. A warming, drying climate is sapping the region of its water at every turn, and significant reductions to demand are likely the only solution to that new reality.
Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (Elise Schmelzer). Here’s an excerpt:
August 15, 2025
Drought and long, hot summer days are sucking Western Coloradoโs rivers dry, parching farm fields and fueling the massive wildfires proliferating across the region. A chunk of northwestern Colorado in the last week plunged into exceptional drought โ the most dire category recorded by the U.S. Drought Monitor. The swath of affected land represents 7% of the state and covers most of Garfield and Rio Blanco counties, as well as parts of Moffat, Mesa, Delta, Routt and Pitkin counties…Exceptional drought is expected to occur once every 50 years, [Russ] Schumacher said. So far this summer, the afternoon monsoon rains that provide relief have been largely absent from the Western Slope. The higher-than-normal temperatures and a lack of rain have sapped the rivers in the Western half of Colorado. Streamflows statewide are at only half of the median recorded between 1991 and 2020,ย according to National Water and Climate Center data. The lack of water has limited fishing and rafting opportunities, reduced agricultural irrigation and threatened river environments…Nearly half of Colorado is experiencing some level of drought, according to newย data released Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor. More than 1.4 million people live in that drought-impacted area, which encompasses the entire western half of the state, parts of metro Denver and some areas of southern Colorado…
This summer has been one of the driest on record for the stateโs critical Colorado River basin, similar to 2018 and 2021, said Calahan of the Colorado River District. Drought in those years made the Colorado River look more like a creek than a river and promptedย a 120-mile-long fishing banย on its mainstem…Streamflow in the basin is worst on its western flank and best on its eastern side near the headwaters, he said…The [Colorado River] district is speaking weekly with irrigators across the region to best divvy up the water that remains. Low flows are being supplemented by releases from reservoirs…A lack of water in the Eagle River near Vail prompted local water authorities to warn of a potential coming water shortage. Flows on the river near Avon were about half of normal โ and the third-lowest recorded on the stream gaugeโs 26-year record, said Siri Roman, the general manager of theย Eagle River Water and Sanitation District…Thirteen of the 14 stream gauges with historic data in the Upper San Juan basin were reporting flows below or extremely below normal on Wednesday.ย The Animas River in Durangoย was flowing at 153 cubic feet per second โ a fraction of the median of 499 cfs for the day across 113 years of data, and close to the historic low for that date of 137 cfs…Several stream gauges in the basin were recording record daily lows, like the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs and on Vallecito Creek…On the opposite side of the state, the Yampa River basin, too, is struggling. The river above Stagecoach Reservoir was flowing at less than half of the 36-year median.
The 24-Month Study projects future Colorado River system conditions using single-trace hydrologic scenarios simulated with the Colorado River Mid-term Modeling System (CRMMS) in 24-Month Study Mode. The Most Probable and Probable Minimum 24-Month Studies are released monthly, typically by the 15th day of the month. The Probable Maximum 24-Month Study is released alongside other 24-Month Studies in January, April, August, and October.
Initial Conditions: The 24-Month Study is initialized with previous end-of-month reservoir elevations.ย
Hydrology: In the Upper Basin, the first year of the Most Probable inflow trace is based on the 50thย percentile of Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) forecasts and the second year is based on the 50thย percentile of historical flows. To represent dry and wet future conditions, the Minimum Probable and Maximum Probable traces use the 10thย and 90thforecast percentiles in the first year and the 25thย and 75thย percentiles of historical flows in the second year, respectively. The Lower Basin inflows are based only on historical intervening flows that align with the Upper Basin percentiles.ย
Water Demand: Upper Basin demands are estimated and incorporated in the unregulated inflow forecasts provided by the CBRFC; Lower Basin demands are developed in coordination with the Lower Basin States and Mexico.ย
Policy: 2007 Interim Guidelines, 2024 Supplement to the 2007 Interim Guidelines, Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan, and Minute 323 are modeled reflecting Colorado Riverย policies. For modeling purposes, simulated years beyond 2026 assume a continuation of the 2007 Interim Guidelines including the 2024 Supplement to the 2007 Interim Guidelines (no additional SEIS conservation is assumed to occur after 2026), the 2019 Colorado River Basin Drought Contingency Plans, and Minute 323 including the Binational Water Scarcity Contingency Plan. With the exception of certain provisions related to ICS recovery and Upper Basin demand management, operations under these agreements are in effect through 2026. Reclamation initiated the process to develop operations for post-2026 in June 2023, and the modeling assumptions described here are subject to change.
Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead.
For more detailed information about the approach to the 24-Month Study modeling, see the CRMMS 24-Month Study Modepage. All modeling assumptions and projections are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. Please refer to this discussion of uncertainty for more information.
Projections
The latest 24-Month Study reports for each study can be found at the links below:
WASHINGTONโฏโ The Bureau of Reclamation released the August 2025 24-Month Study, reaffirming impacts of unprecedented drought in the Colorado River Basin and pressing the need for robust and forward-thinking guidelines for the future. The study provides an outlook on hydrologic conditions and projected operations for Colorado River reservoirs over the next two years and sets the 2026 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.
โThis underscores the importance of immediate action to secure the future of the Colorado River,โ said Reclamationโs Acting Commissioner David Palumbo. โWe must develop new, sustainable operating guidelines that are robust enough to withstand ongoing drought and poor runoff conditions to ensure water security for more than 40 million people who rely on this vital resource.โ
Lake Powellโs elevation on Jan. 1, 2026, is projected to be 3,538.47 feetโapproximately 162 feet below full pool and 48 feet above minimum power pool. This places the reservoir in the Mid-Elevation Release Tier, with a planned release of 7.48 million acre-feet of water for water year 2026, October 1, 2025, through September 30, 2026. If hydrologic conditions worsen, the water year release volume may be reduced in accordance with the 2024 Record of Decision for the Supplement to the 2007 Interim Guidelines.
Lake Mead is projected to stay in a Level 1 Shortage Condition, with an expected elevation of 1,055.88 feetโ20 feet below the Lower Basin shortage determination trigger. This condition necessitates significant water reductions as indicated by the 2007 Interim Guidelines and the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan in the United States and Minute 323 and the Binational Water Scarcity Contingency Plan in Mexico. This calls for Arizona to contribute 512,000 acre-feet, about 18% of its annual apportionment, Nevada to contribute 21,000 acre-feet or 7%of its annual apportionment, and Mexico to contribute 80,000 acre-feet or 5% of its annual allotment.
Current guidelinesโincluding the 2007 Interim Guidelines, 2019 Drought Contingency Plans, and international agreements Minutes 323 and 330โare all set to expire at the end of 2026, leaving a critical void that must be filled with comprehensive strategies that address current and future challenges.
โAs the basin prepares for the transition to post-2026 operating guidelines, the urgency for the seven Colorado River Basin states to reach a consensus agreement has never been clearer. We cannot afford to delay,โ said Department of the Interiorโs Acting Assistant Secretary for Water and Science Scott Cameron. โThe health of the Colorado River system and the livelihoods that depend on it are relying on our ability to collaborate effectively and craft forward-thinking solutions that prioritize conservation, efficiency, and resilience.โ
In June, Cameron called on the seven Colorado River Basin states to submit the details of a preliminary operations agreement by mid-November and share a final seven state agreement on that proposal by mid-February 2026, with the goal of reaching a final decision next summer to begin implementation in the 2027 operating year.
In the meantime, near-term operating guidelines approved last year provide additional strategies to reduce the risk of reaching critical elevations at Lake Powell and Lake Mead. These short-term tools, available through 2026, include conserving 3 million acre-feet or more of water in the Lower Basin and the potential to reduce release from Lake Powell. Under the Drought Contingency Plan, Upper Basin drought response operations could also include sending additional water to Lake Powell from upstream reservoirs.
โThese short-term tools will only help us for so long,โ Cameron emphasized. โThe next set of guidelines need to be in place. We remain committed to this effort and will continue to invest in infrastructure improvements and system water reuse and conservation efforts as we move forward toward viable solutions.โ
The Department and Reclamation continue meeting regularly with the basin states and Tribal Nations to collaborate on the Post-2026 Operating Guidelines as part of their continued commitment to ensuring water security and promoting long-term sustainability in the Colorado River Basin. For more information on the August 2025 24-Month Study, visit https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/24ms-projections.html.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
From email from Western Resource Advocates (John Berggren):
August 15, 2025
Western Resource Advocates released the following statement in response to the August 24-Month Study by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which determines reservoir operations and Lower Basin shortages for the coming Water Year, and projects future conditions in the Colorado River system for the next two years.
“This study confirms what weโve known for decades: the Colorado River is overallocated with demands outpacing supplies. We face continued shortages, emergency measures, and the limits of our current agreements, all which are set to expire in the next 12 months. It further sounds the alarm that the Colorado River is drying out and Western states need to act now to protect this vital waterway and its tributaries.”
– John Berggren, Ph.D.
The Colorado River provides drinking water for one in ten Americans and after years of persistent drought, declining snowpack, and rising temperatures, the river continues to face a historic and growing imbalance where demand overwhelms available supply. It is operating under extreme stress and at the edge of a critical management transition.
โThis is not just a crisis. Itโs also a call to action to use remaining time wisely to replace our current reactive, emergency-based management framework with new, long-term solutions. We canโt litigate our way out โ we must collaborate forward. A negotiated agreement among all the Colorado River sovereigns and stakeholders will be more comprehensive, more adaptable, and more responsive to our communities throughout the Basin.โ
Change is the only constant on the Colorado River. Its water carved the Grand Canyon, its flows fluctuate seasonally, its path is altered by a network of dams and pipelines, and its water is dwindling as climate change dries out the West. The River is a dynamic and living system with real limits, yet early agreements treated it like a simple water delivery pipeline.
“Going forward, itโs essential for all water stakeholders and decision makers to take an honest look at the Basinโs hydrology and accelerate coming together around a set of proactive solutions to keep the river healthy.ย Decisions made in the coming months will determine whether we can meet the needs of our communities and protect the river for future generations and for the fish, wildlife, and recreationists that depend on it. The time to lead is now.”
Thank you for fighting climate change in the West with us.
Click the link to read the article on the InkStain website (John Fleck, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, and Katherine Tara):
As we await Fridayโs (Aug. 15, 2025) release of the Bureau of Reclamationโs Colorado River 24-Month Study, we need to remember a painful lesson of the last five years of crisis management: whatever you see in Reclamationโs report of the โMost Probableโ reservoir levels for the next two years, we must prepare for things to be much worse.
A year ago, Reclamationโs โMost Probableโ forecast told us to expect Lake Powell to hold 10.36 million acre feet of water at the end of July 2025, with a surface elevation 3,593 feet above sea level. Actual storage in Powell at the end of July was 7.46 maf, 2.9 million acre feet less, and the reservoir is 38 feet lower, than the โMost Probableโ forecast.
Four years ago, one of us (Eric Kuhn) wrote this, which is helpful in understanding what is happening:
“The problem: the assumptions underlying the study do not fully capture the climate-change driven aridification of the Colorado River Basin.”
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
In 2022, a Utah State Center for Colorado River Studies team led by Jian Wang (including one of us, Schmidt) took this on in more technical detail โ Evaluating the Accuracy of Reclamationโs 24-Month Study of Lake Powell Projections. The finding provided technical support for an intuition water managers already had: the 24-Month Study has an optimistic bias.
Produced monthly, Reclamationโs 24-Month Study includes three scenarios: Most Probable, Minimum Probable, and Maximum Probable. The Study includes 18 pages of data and forecasts for twelve Colorado River system reservoirs, from Fontenelle and Flaming Gorge in the north to Mohave and Havasu in the south, projecting things like elevation, storage, inflows, releases, evaporation, and hydropower production each month for the next two years.
“Projections for reservoir elevations during the next few months are based on predictions of reservoir inflow using a widely accepted watershed hydrologic model run by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. The input data for that model are observed snowpack in the watershed, soil moisture, and anticipated precipitation and temperature. Projections for reservoir elevations beyond the immediately proximate winter, a year or more in the future (โsecond year projectionsโ), are based on statistical probabilities calculated using analyses of past inflows during a 30-year reference period.”
The resulting model runs represent a wide range of uncertainties, which are captured in three resulting scenarios:
Most Probable: the middle of the range
Maximum Probable: the 90th percentile scenario, meaning that 10% of the model runs predict even wetter hydrology and 90% predict drier.
Minimum Probable: the 10th percentile scenario, meaning that 10% of the model runs predict even drier hydrology and 90% predict wetter.
The problem, implicit in the argument Milly et al. made nearly two decades ago, is that a 30-year reference period is no longer a reliable indicator of what we should expect in the future. It represents a river we no longer have. This is not to suggest any bias or partiality on the part of Reclamation, but merely that the algorithms and modeling used to produce the 24-Month Study have proven in recent years to be skewed more toward the the past than the true-to-life. Our response needs to reflect that reality.
Because of the changing conditions in the Colorado River Basin, the Minimum Probable scenario has become the most valuable in providing a reliable indicator of the future. Actual flows and reservoir levels have been tracking the minimum probable forecast since March of this year. As we enter the fall of 2025, with the weak summer monsoon for most of the Upper Basin coupled with weak La Niรฑa conditions persisting through the fall and early winter, and NOAAโs seasonal outlook pointing to a warmer and drier than average fall, itโs a good bet that this trend will continue at least through mid-winter. The Basin should be prepared for minimum probable conditions, with a clear possibility that actual conditions could be worse than the 10th percentile scenario. The basin community needs to be ready to respond with the necessary water use reductions now to protect the Colorado River system on which we all depend.
Pine River Marina at Navajo Reservoir. Photo credit: Reclamation
From email from Reclamation (Conor Felletter):
August 15, 2025
The Bureau of Reclamation has scheduled an increase in the release from Navajo Dam to 900 cubic feet per second (cfs) from the current release of 850 cfs for Saturday, August 16, at 4:00 AM.
Releases are made for the authorized purposes of the Navajo Unit, and to attempt to maintain a target base flow through the endangered fish critical habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to Lake Powell). The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout the critical habitat area from Farmington to Lake Powell.
This scheduled release change is subject to changes in river flows and weather conditions. If you have any questions, please contact Conor Felletter (cfelletter@usbr.gov or 970-637-1985), or visit Reclamationโs Navajo Dam website athttps://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html
Reclamation conducts Public Operations Meetings three times per year to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies along with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. The next meeting will be held Tuesday, August 19th at 1:00 PM. This meeting is open to the public with hybrid options, in person at the Civic Center in Farmington, NM (200 W Arrington St, Farmington, NM 87401, Rooms 4&5) and virtual using Microsoft Teams. Register for the webinar at this link
Trail building by the Civilian Conservation Corps on Notch Mountain, then a popular destination for its view of the Mount of the Holy Cross and the throngs of religious pilgrims who were drawn to the site in the early days of the Holy Cross National Forest, now part of the White River National Forest. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Editorโs note: This story is the third of a three-part series examining the notion of public lands, both in the United States and in our region. Part one looked at the earliest expressions of the commons in territories that would become the United States. Parts two and three look at the history and legacy of what is now the White River National Forest.
The hunger for land was an insatiable draw to legions of the dispossessed who were on the march across America eager for land ownership. The Utes were simply in the way of an advance that could not or would not be stopped. The tragic story of these first inhabitants of the White River National Forest (WRNF) played out to a violent end amid a rush for land and resources in the Colorado Rockies that had 5,000 people per day pouring into the state by the 1870s.
Native inhabitants had been hunting and gathering here for more than 10,000 years. The Utes โ the โPeople of the Shining Mountains,โ according to the title of a book by Charles Marsh โ ruled a vast and rugged empire of about 225,000 square miles that stretched from the Central Rockies west into Utah and Nevada, south into New Mexico and east onto the Great Plains where they hunted buffalo on horseback. The Utes were among the first Native Americans to acquire the horse from Spanish stock that, it was assumed, had been lost. Horses were key to Ute identity, and equestrian skills were a mark of manhood that provided rapid mobility and warrior status.
White River Ute warrior Gray Eagle and his young bride Honey Dew of the Mountains, on horseback on the western slope of the Wasatch Range in Utah, then roaming their vast territory west of the White River before the White River Agency was established. Circa 1871-1875. CREDIT: DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
Broken treaties and war
The advance of Europeans into Ute lands set up a tension that grew with every treaty violation and every trespass. As their domain was carved away, the U.S. government naively assumed the Utes could be transitioned from nomadic hunter-gatherers and cordoned off as sedentary farmers. Indian agents were hired to effect this transition, which, in the long run, proved futile and disastrous. There was no reasonable answer to โthe Ute problem,โ which was the terminology used by Frederick Pitkin, Coloradoโs second governor from 1879-82, to refer to the cultural impasse.
The ensuing drama escalated at the White River Agency near todayโs Meeker in 1879 when Indian agent Nathan Meeker, a naive and misguided minister, attempted to force the Utesโ compliance to โwhite manโs waysโ by denying them their horses, rationing allotments and plowing over their racetrack to plant crops. Meeker and others believed that the Utes were in need of redemption for their spiritual welfare. The Utes, who found spiritual depth in the natural world around them, believed otherwise and clung to their sacred traditions.
The conflict boiled over in the late summer of 1879 when Meeker had a violent altercation with a Ute sub chief. The frightened Meeker sent for the U.S. Army, which advanced from Wyoming and was met by a strong Ute force. When the detachment of 190 troops crossed into Ute territory on Sept. 29, shots rang out, kicking off a grueling six-day battle of attrition that saw 17 U.S. soldiers killed and wounded 44, while the Utes saw 24 killed, in what became known as the Battle of Milk Creek. As the battle raged 17 miles away, Utes also attacked the White River Agency, killing Meeker, 10 men under his employ, and kidnapped women and children, including Meekerโs wife and daughter.
All captives were later released from a Ute camp on Grand Mesa. But the violent outbreak provided ample pretext for the whites to pursue a campaign of ethnic cleansing. In 1881, Pitkin issued an edict stating that the Utes would either be removed to reservations in Utah and southern Colorado or exterminated. Many were marched out of their homelands near the Uncompahgre River at gunpoint, while remaining bands roamed northwest Colorado until an 1887 military campaign known as the Colorow War.
With that Pitkin proclamation, 12 million acres of western Colorado opened for settlement. The White River Timberland Reserve was later created on these former Ute lands, placing them under federal administration. The Utes were compensated about $22 per capita in a settlement for all that they were forced to surrender. However, draws from those payments were taken from Ute hands to fund pensions paid to families of soldiers and agency staff killed during the violence surrounding the Meeker incidents. So ended the empire of the Utes.
Milk Creek Battlefield Park, 18 miles northeast of Meeker, Colorado. Battle of Milk Creek, Sept. 29 through Oct.5, 1879, between the Utes and the U.S. troops, which triggered the Meeker incident. The battle persisted with the Utes surrounding the wagon-circled troops until military reinforcements arrived. Most sources tally 17 whites killed and 44 wounded, along with 24 Utes killed and unknown numbers wounded, while 127 horses and 183 mules of the U.S. troopers died. By Jeffrey Beall – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=70937831
Exploitation, waste and destruction
โOne of the most pressing problems facing Colorado in the 1880s and 1890s,โ wrote Justine Irwin, author of the 1990 manuscript โWhite River National Forest: A Centennial History,โ โwas the prevalent exploitation of its natural resources by westward moving pioneers โฆ [who] accepted the waste and destruction that followed as a small price to pay for their dream of prosperity.โ
The prevailing attitude of the day regarded โwildernessโ as a wasteland ripe for the biblical mandate in the Book of Genesis: โIncrease, multiply, replenish the earth and subdue it.โ These newcomers to western Colorado, wrote Irwin, viewed the land with โutilitarian spectacles,โ through which โtrees became lumber, prairies became farms, and canyons became the sites of hydroelectric dams.โ
A dramatic example of the settlersโ creed was the extermination of the native elk herd as meat hunters ignored sustainable yields and fecklessly shot and killed all the native elk in the region, selling their harvest to railroad builders and mine workers. So-called โmarket huntingโ flourished only as long as the herds lasted, and the 6,000 to 8,000 elk estimated to have been in the WRNF region in 1879 were soon extirpated. Hunters took only the hindquarters of the animals, leaving the rest as waste. The selling price for meat was 7 cents a pound for deer, 9 cents for elk, 10 cents for bighorn sheep and bear, and 50 cents for grouse.
Meanwhile, the General Land Office, a real estate branch of the Department of Interior, was busy selling off the commons at $1.25 per acre. The Homestead Act gave land away to qualifying settlers in 160-acre allotments for each adult member of a family. Large families could acquire considerable acreage of public lands. The Timber Culture Act of 1873, the General Mining Act of 1872 and the Railroad Act of 1862 gave away huge swaths of the public domain, all to encourage monetizing the commons and capitalizing on the riches of the continental empire of the United States.
โRanchers, loggers and others invaded railroad lands taking what they wished and giving no thought to the long-range future of the region,โ wrote Irwin, who describes a ruthless lawlessness that discouraged any interference in this land-based free-for-all. But there was change in the air as lawmakers recognized that there were limits to the nationโs natural resources. The giveaways continued, but national parks and designated forests were proposed and gradually established to preserve legacy Western landscapes for future generations in a first glimmer of conservation. The philosophy behind this growing movement was shared by Henry David Thoreau, George Catlin, John James Audubon, John Muir and an influential cadre of preservationists who began to win over advocates in Washington, D.C. The conservation ethic is summed up by author Rod Nash in his โWilderness and the American Mindโ (1967), in which he wrote, โDoesnโt the present owe the future a chance to know the past?โ
Environmental concerns for preserving intact ecosystems to protect valuable and irreplaceable watersheds played a utilitarian role in conservation efforts on Western lands. Forestry management entered the lexicon of policymakers when, in 1875, Section 6 of the Colorado Constitution called for โPreservation of Forests: The General Assembly shall enact laws in order to prevent the destruction of, and to keep in good preservation, the forests upon the lands of the state.โ
Citizen involvement through civic forestry associations amplified the call to protect national assets and save something for the future. In 1889, a timber reserve was called for on the Western Slope of Colorado to safeguard against wildfires, overgrazing and irresponsible timber harvests โ all of which were decimating irreplaceable landscapes. A similar approach to nature aesthetics was winning hearts and minds for preserving the inspiring vistas that were beginning to sensitize America to the natural treasures of which it had taken possession.
In 1891, a groundswell of support led President Benjamin Harrison to enact the General Revision Act, a sweeping mandate to protect Western lands that led Harrison to issue a proclamation establishing the White River Plateau Timber Land Reserve, the first binding federal protection for a large expanse of central and northwest Colorado and the second of its scale and scope in the United States, after a forest reserve designated near Yellowstone National Park. Supporters called it a great victory, but detractors โ of which there were many โ impugned the initiative as a โtakingโ of what they considered the entitlement of free land.
The account of a boasting pioneer quoted in โWhite River National Forest: A Centennial Historyโ and who had unconscionably plundered the public domain is a grim tale of misuse without supervision and reasonable limits of what was perceived as an infinite cornucopia: โIn the summer of โ89, I killed about 700 deer and pulled the hides off, just for the hides. That fall, I got 43 bear near Lost Park. I shipped the hides to Chicago and they netted me clear $1.50 apiece. Everybody killed game for the hides and made money that way. Iโll tell you a fact: In โ89 I could ride up anywhere and there would be 40 to 50 bucks lying in one bunch. You could ride up to within a few feet of them. I killed 23 bucks in one day and jerked the hides off.โ
Such carnage became repugnant to many and shameful to a growing number of nature lovers who advocated protective legislation such as the Forest Management Act of 1897 that granted the secretary of the interior power to regulate โoccupancy and useโ of federal lands. Implementation was another thing as new and often-inexperienced forest rangers came up against hardened libertarians who were armed and militant โ namely, loggers and ranchers. Threats against rangers, who lacked policing power, were said to โmake your eyes swell shut and your nose bleed,โ according to โA Centennial History.โ
โA ranger must be able to take care of himself and his horses under very trying conditions; build trails and cabins; ride all day and all night; pack, shoot and fight without losing his head. All this requires a very rigorous constitution,โ read one early Forest Service job posting. A group of White River National Forest rangers are shown here at a 1921 meeting. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Forest rangers bring law to the wilderness
According to Irwinโs manuscript, โthe forest ranger had to become not only a conservationist, a lands manager, a grazing expert, a timber expert, a watershed manager, a wildlife protector and jack-of-all-trades, he also had to become an expert in public relations with a keen understanding of community and national politics.โ Few could match up to these requirements without rigorous training and a deep commitment to the role.
In 1898, Charles W. Ramer of Fort Collins was appointed the first supervisor of the White River Plateau Timber Land Reserve, headquartered in Meeker. Jack Dunn, Harry Gibler and Solon Ackley were the first rangers hired to patrol the reserve, which was divided into nine districts. The rangers were assigned to observe that loggers and ranchers kept to their assigned boundaries, to ensure that game regulations were followed and to put out brush fires.
These early rangers faced tremendous personal risks from unruly forest users, as described in an account by ranger William Kreutzer, who faced repeated threats from his efforts to enforce regulations. One night in the early 1900s, wrote Irwin, โas he was returning to his camp from a day patrolling, three men sprang suddenly from the aspen thickets and attacked him. Almost instantly he was struck on the head with something that rendered him unconscious. When he recovered, many hours later, he was lying beside the road, his head ached, his nose was bruised.โ
Early forest rangers faced personal risks from unruly forest users. One account by ranger William Kreutzer, shown here, described facing beatings and attempted shootings from his efforts to enforce regulations.
Another incident from Irwinโs manuscript revealed that Kreutzer boldly confiscated tools from a group of timber cutters felling trees inside the protected reserve. โOne day he was riding a trail and a bullet whizzed by close to his head. He rolled from his saddle and sought shelter behind a large tree. Four more bullets struck near him. The boom that followed each shot told him they had come from a large rifle fired from a spot some distance away. He had only his six-shooter, but ascertaining as best he could the spot whence the shots came, he elevated the barrel of his gun and fired every cartridge. The shots of his assailant ceased. He decided that someone had just tried to scare him a bit.โ
Trophy hunters flocked to hunt in the White River Reserve, the most prestigious of whom was President Theodore Roosevelt whose special train passed through Glenwood Springs in 1901. The Roosevelt party hunted the Danforth Hills near Meeker, killing 14 mountain lions. Although Roosevelt championed conservation of wild lands, he withdrew substantial acreage from the reserve on the advice of his chief forester, Gifford Pinchot, in order to appease complaints from forest users of โlocking up the land.โ
Meanwhile, posted notices advertised the following: โMen Wanted!! A ranger must be able to take care of himself and his horses under very trying conditions; build trails and cabins; ride all day and all night; pack, shoot and fight without losing his head. All this requires a very rigorous constitution. It means the hardest kind of physical work from beginning to end. It is not a job for those seeking health or light outdoor work. Invalids need not apply.โ
Requirements were incredibly demanding, but men equal to the challenge answered the call and were hired only after completing a grueling exam that included saddling a horse, riding a required distance, packing a horse or mule with tools and camping gear, pacing the pack animal over a designated trail, taking bearings with survey tools and more. The annual salary for the few who were able to pass the test was $900 to $1,500, but starting at a lower figure.
The staunchest objectors to enforcement were cattlemen whose livelihood required substantial range. Among them was Roaring Fork Valley rancher Fred Light, who protested the charging of range fees for grazing his stock. Lightโs story traces a reluctant yet gradual progression from vehement protests to acceptance of the principles of forest management.
Trophy hunters around the turn of the 20th century flocked to the newly created White River Reserve, the most prestigious of whom was President Theodore Roosevelt whose special train passed through Glenwood Springs in 1901. The Roosevelt party hunted the Danforth Hills near Meeker, killing 14 mountain lions. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Light of the Roaring Fork
Fred Light (1856-1931) came to the Roaring Fork Valley in 1880. He prospected before locating a homestead on East Sopris Creek where he cut and sold hay in Aspen to feed the many teams required for mining and camp life. Eventually, Light proved up on his land, expanded his operation, and raised cattle and horses. In 1885, he was elected to the Colorado legislature and served two terms. He was a prominent, well-respected rancher who had political savvy โ and clout.
โWe want no forest reserves,โ Light announced to cheers and applause at a meeting of the Stockmenโs Association in 1907. โIf we must have reserves, we want no grazing tax; if we must have reserves and the tax, the cattlemen claim the privilege of saying who will be placed in charge of the reserves.โ
Light gained notoriety when, that same year, he allowed his cattle to drift into the newly formed White River Forest Reserve where grazing was prohibited. Light, like many early ranchers, was resistant to government control over a resource that he and many ranchers took possession of as an entitlement by simply being there first and assuming a right of ownership.
Light was cited, which started a grazing-trespass case with the U.S. Department of Forestry and which eventually reached the Supreme Court. Light lost his case, but he had made a bold statement of rugged individualism that animated the spirit and the myth upon which much of the American West was settled. The decision against him, however, verified the governmentโs legitimacy in charging grazing fees and regulating uses on reserve land. Light accepted the decision and thereafter paid the appropriate fees. He also agreed to the rules and regulations, and he even came to endorse them as he witnessed how competing forest users were beginning to negatively impact the land.
Lightโs story is compelling, but there was a far more sensational and dire event in his colorful life in the Roaring Fork Valley that describes a sad, personal anecdote. The Aspen-Democrat Times reported a dramatic event: An electrical storm, proclaimed โthe worst in the history of this locality,โ killed one person and wounded others in the Capitol Creek area.
According to the July 14, 1909, news story, โEarly last evening an electrical storm set in which surpassed in severity any before experienced in this locality and brought disaster to the household of Hon. Fred Light of Capitol Creek, one of the most prominent and highly respected families of Pitkin County.โ That evening, a bolt of lightning struck a potato cultivator outside the home, jumped to the gable on the homeโs roof and ran down to the basement, where Lightโs five children were packing meat. Lightโs son Ray, 18, was killed with four others rendered unconscious.
Lightโs conversion to the ways of the forest was a sign of progress, but, unfortunately, it did nothing to ameliorate an even more vitriolic conflict. A range war erupted in the early 1900s that pitted cattlemen and sheepherders against one another in a blood feud that resulted in thousands of sheep being slaughtered and a number of men being beaten and killed. The Western tradition of โfirst in time, first in rightโ gave cattlemen the wherewithal to declare the range existed for cattle only. Sheepherders were not forbidden by law or permit, but they took their lives in their hands if they violated the cattlemenโs self-imposed privilege.
Chapman Dam in the Fryingpan River basin, shown here in 1940, was a Great Depression-era Civilian Conservation Corps project. CREDIT: WWW.WATERARCHIVES.ORG
Range wars
While the Glenwood Post became amenable to regulations in the White River Reserve by acknowledging the advantages of range protection, increased pasturage and peaceable possession for cattlemen, the advent of sheepherders lit the fuse of a conflict that blew up repeatedly. Irwin describes the George Woolley Sheep Massacre in Routt County when, in 1911, several hundred sheep were โrimrockedโ in a stampede that drove them off a cliff. In 1913, many sheep were killed by strychnine poisoning. Finally, a full-on range battle ensued in 1913 in the Battle of Yellowjacket Pass, between Craig and Meeker, when warring sheepherders and cattlemen fired upon one another, necessitating the calling out of the Colorado State Militia.
Changes in the cattle industry โ such as growing domestic hay for winter feed and breeding more efficient strands of range cattle โ increased weight gain and reduced the desperate need for vast grazing acreage. Forest rangers also played a part as peacemakers and mediators who headed off range feuds. They also took on rapidly expanding responsibilities to regulate timber cutting and supervise road-building, water diversions, irrigation, reforestation, erosion control, trail-building, sign-postage, wild game and fish management, and many other tasks. When elk were reintroduced to the forest in 1912 โ Fryingpan Valley rancher Nelson Downey reportedly killed the last bull elk of the original herd in 1895 โ rangers monitored the habitat and protected the imported elk from over-hunting.
As a more peaceful era settled on the reserve (renamed the White River Forest Reserve in 1902 by Roosevelt), a new use with rapidly growing popularity became evident as people came to the reserve, not to graze animals or cut timber, but to simply enjoy the sublime natural beauty that is in such profusion here. Enter recreation and a new identity for the public commons.
A U.S. Forest Service photo dated between 1910 and 1930 shows a man with a fishing pole near a tent at Snowmass Lake, with Snowmass Peak in the distance covered with snow. Recreation grew in popularity throughout the early 20th century, creating new priorities for the Forest Service. CREDIT: DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
For the love of nature
Pinchot, the chief forester, considered recreation to be only an โincidental useโ until 1905, when hotels and sanitariums were introduced to the reserve for popular enjoyment and therapeutic healing. Gradually, roads and trails became part of the White River National Forest (Congress renamed it so in 1907) with the mandate to include all users. This brought commercial use into local cultural and economic equations and began a shift of management priorities.
An annual report on the forest in 1913 stated that natural resources would now be managed to reduce impacts from grazing and logging in order to โpreserve the natural beauty of the location unmarred for the enjoyment of the public.โ A potentially lucrative recreation economy spurred a tangential threat of privatizing public lands for commercial gain as stated in a letter to the U.S. Forest Service from the Denver Chamber of Commerce in 1913: โWe deny that it is right or advisable for the federal government to retain title to and lease the public lands for any purpose whatsoever.โ
The Forest Service was not alone in wariness of privatizing the commons for private development. In a major turnabout from only a decade before, Colorado stock growers shared the alarm: โWe earnestly object to any action by Congress abolishing the national forests or transferring their control or administration from the national government, and we must respectfully urge our congressmen to oppose any measures materially changing the present method regulating grazing on the national forests.โ
Even Light came to the forestโs defense as reflected in a report in the Glenwood Post in 1916: โFred Light was even ready to kiss and forgive the forestry officials. โฆ Mr. Light says he has learned to adapt himself to the forestry regulations and that the officials mean only good to the stockmen.โ
Grazing and logging continued as fundamental to the forest economy, especially during World War I when resources were in great demand, and yet the clamor for private resorts and vacation cabins began exerting influence. Trappers Lake was a sought-after locale for a proposed lodge and several hundred cabins that threatened to commercialize a scenic focal point on this White River National Forest wilderness enclave. In 1919, Arthur Carhart, landscape architect for the U.S. Forest Service, made a survey of the area and later advocated for a new concept in public-lands management โ wilderness โ especially after a meeting with assistant forester Aldo Leopold, Americaโs first conservation biologist.
โHow far shall the Forest Service carry or allow to be carried manmade improvement in scenic territories?โ wrote Carhart. โThe Forest Service is obliged to make the greatest return from the forests to the people of the nation that is possible.โ Carhart acknowledged forest yields in economic terms, but then urged for a higher concept of land use. โThere is a great wealth of recreational facilities and scenic values within the forests,โ he opined. โThere are portions of natural scenic beauty which are God-made and which of a right should be the property of all the people. There are a number of places with scenic values of such great worth that they are rightfully property of all people. They should be preserved for all time for the people of the nation and the world.โ
With that statement, Carhart leaped beyond the utility of conversation via Pinchot into the notion of preservation along the aesthetic and spiritual lines of Muir and Leopold. Carhart concluded: โIf Trappers Lake is in or anywhere near in the class of superlatives, it should not have any cabins or hotels intruding in the lake basin.โ Trappers Lake was preserved, and Carhartโs memo became a strong endorsement of the Wilderness Act of 1964.
The mess tent at a Civilian Conservation Corps work project camp at Maroon Lake,1935. The CCC put the impoverished and the unemployed to work on federal lands to build roads, trails and facilities. CREDIT: ASPEN HISTORICAL SOCIETY
A Civilian Conservation Corps work project camp at Ashcroft, 1938. The workers at the camp were improving Castle Creek Road and building and repairing bridges. CREDIT: ASPEN HISTORICAL SOCIETY
The scenic WRNF and the CCC
There is a mountain in the distant West That, sun-defying, in its deep ravines Displays a cross of snow upon its side.
William Henry Jackson wrote that verse after photographing Mount of the Holy Cross (at 14,009 feet) during his wilderness sojourn in 1874 with the Ferdinand Hayden geologic survey team. Located in Eagle County, this dramatic peak became a religious icon in the 1920s when pilgrimages were made to nearby Notch Mountain for the spectacular view. Visitors came from around the world to see the sight, having either to hike there or to travel by horseback. President Herbert Hoover declared the peak a national monument in 1929. In 1950, that status was rescinded after the pilgrim era had tapered down to almost nothing.
Still, the religious influence of this remarkable mountain left an imprint in the American psyche that, for growing numbers, infused scenic lands with sacred status. A tide had turned when Western lands attained a divine countenance that glowed with ethereal majesty and touched the hearts, minds and imaginations of those who saw them. This love of the land became a national balm when, in 1929, the stock market crashed and America entered the Great Depression.
As many Americans suffered economic privation, the forests of the West became sanctuaries, places to escape the grit and grime of depressed cities and breathe fresh air. When Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected president in 1932, his socially progressive legislative agenda included the formation of a national service component called the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC).
Federal dollars put the impoverished and the unemployed to work on federal lands to build roads, trails and facilities. CCC workers, each paid $30 per month, were mostly young men, from all walks and all corners of the nation, who spent weeks, months and sometimes years working in national forests, living in communal camps and recognizing the virtues of public lands.
During the 1930s, there were CCC camps in Woody Creek and at Norrie in the Upper Fryingpan. Gradually, forest access was opened to more users as land improvements mitigated erosion with the planting trees and shrubs, removing invasive or poisonous species, and making the forests prime recreation areas under the multiple-use mandate, which the Forest Service described as โinseparably interwoven into the social and economic future of forest communities.โ
Maintaining the health of the range within the White River National Forest was a constant challenge made more practical by the Taylor Grazing Act of 1934, named for U.S. Rep. Edward Taylor, D-Colo., of Glenwood Springs. The act was designed specifically to prevent overgrazing and soil deterioration, and to provide for the orderly use and improvement of public lands, while also stabilizing the livestock industry dependent on the public range. Fundamentally, the act protected the health of the rangelands and the resources they provided.
Members of the 10th Mountain Division climb a slope during a winter training exercise where the troops skied from Leadville to Aspen. This image was likely captured near Mount Champion. After the war, many 10th Mountain veterans were among the legions of young skiers and mountaineers who established the Colorado ski industry that was soon to develop resorts on national forest land. CREDIT: 10TH MOUNTAIN DIVISION RESOURCE CENTER, DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
World War II and the 10th Mountain Division
Americaโs entering World War II with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 raised demands for resources from the White River National Forest and reduced its workforce as all attention was focused on national defense. A different kind of attack, this one by the Engelmann spruce beetle, saw huge mortality rates throughout the forest, prompting foresters to implement the sustainable yield concept for renewable timber harvests, especially given the decimation from beetle-killed trees. This resulted in the passage, in 1944, of the Sustained Yield Forest Management Act, which found favor with the War Production Board and opened the forest to widespread logging. A deep cold snap in 1951 greatly reduced spruce beetle populations, restored forest health and obviated the need for insecticide applications that had been tested on Basalt Mountain.
The war brought a new user group to the forest when the 10th Mountain Division trained at Camp Hale, near Leadville. After the war, legions of young skiers and mountaineers were attracted to the stateโs Rocky Mountains, where many established the Colorado ski industry that was soon to develop resorts on national forest land. Aspen became a focal point for Coloradoโs identity with skiing, which brought Walter and Elizabeth Paepcke from Chicago to Aspen in 1945. Elizabeth Paepcke, who founded the Aspen Center for Environmental Studies (ACES), is described by Irwin as โan ardent conservationist trained by family friend, Gifford Pinchot,โ and later by early wilderness advocate Enos Mills.
A Civilian Conservation Corps work project on Castle Creek Road,1937. Workers camped on public lands near Ashcroft improved Castle Creek Road and built and repaired bridges. CREDIT: ASPEN HISTORICAL SOCIETY
NEPA boosts environmental oversight
As recreation created mounting pressures for land development, the Forest Service recognized the need for greater environmental oversight, leading Congress in 1969 to pass the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This groundbreaking legislation focused initially on the impacts of ski-area design and later became an overarching management tool for all public land uses.
Meanwhile, the White River National Forest became โthe ski-area forestโ as thousands of acres of public lands were permitted for ski runs and resort infrastructure. The town of Vail was incorporated in 1966, where by the end of the 1967-68 ski season, 1 million lift tickets were sold and revenues reached nearly $3 million. General forest visitation had also grown to 171,000 in 1947 from 96,000 in 1946. โFor every two who pitched camp in our forests in 1948,โ wrote a forester in 1950, โthree or more did in 1949.โ The recreation boom had begun.
By the mid-1950s, public demand for designated campgrounds created an ever-growing budget for facilities that could accommodate nature-seeking Americans. The role of the forests became focused on serving visitors in unprecedented numbers. The 1960 Multiple Use-Sustained Yield Act ushered in a new thrust for outdoor recreation as โmultiple useโ became the law of the land. Along with the explosion in tourism came ambitious water diversions as natural watersheds were impounded to fill dams and regulate flows for human benefit under the Bureau of Reclamation. Transmountain diversions and dams proliferated in the WRNF throughout the upper Fryingpan, Roaring Fork and Lincoln Gulch basins.
William Henry Jackson, who is credited with the image here, first photographed the cross of snow on the northeast face of the Mount of the Holy Cross in 1873, and the peak became one of the Rocky Mountainsโ best known features. It was declared a national monument in 1929, but saw that status rescinded in 1950 as the number of religious pilgrims declined. The 14,009-foot peak has been protected by the Holy Cross WIlderness since 1980. CREDIT: DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
The wilderness idea
As human impacts threatened over-development of forest lands, a chorus of wilderness advocates called for a balance by establishing primitive and wilderness areas based on Carhartโs memo urging the preservation of Trappers Lake. The Wilderness Act of 1964 made possible the formation of the Maroon Bells-Snowmass Wilderness Area and many other mountain redoubts with roadless designations and pristine environments. Today, containing eight wilderness areas, the WRNF has 751,900 acres of statutory wilderness, the highest protected landscapes in the country, and 640,000 roadless acres.
The wilderness philosophy calls for preserving the nationโs legacy landscapes, where man is only a visitor. Although a mere 2% of the 48 contiguous states is protected with wilderness designation, these irreplaceable landscapes are sought after more and more frequently. They are fast becoming overcrowded, with many wilderness areas requiring permits merely to set foot in them. A deeper concept of nature has redefined recreation with access to quiet, peaceful settings where visitors may experience a spiritual balm and even a moral grounding for humanity. Lakota Sioux Luther Standing Bear said as much when he wrote at the turn of the 20th century: โThe old Lakota was wise. He knew that a manโs heart away from nature becomes hard; he knew that lack of respect for growing, living things soon lead to a lack of respect for humans too.โ
By the turn of the 21st century, the WRNF strained to manage for multiple uses of limited resources as competing users seek a balance among development, land conservation, wilderness preservation and environmental oversight. Management pressures are only growing, but under the current Trump administrationโs Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), many forest rangers and administrators have been dismissed, staffing is nearing a critical shortage, and the long-range management goals that have underpinned the health and resilience of the White River National Forest are under grave risks that are likely to impact the quality of our public lands.
A national forest mission statement describes whatโs at stake: โThe White River National Forest provides quality recreation experiences for visitors from around the world. Through strong environmental leadership we maintain a variety of ecosystems, producing benefits of local and national importance. Our success is due to active partnership with individuals, organizations and communities. Our strength is a diverse and highly skilled workforce.โ
A current map of the White River National Forest, in green, which is Coloradoโs largest, containing eight wilderness areas shaded dark green on this map.
The WRNF by the Numbers:
Total Acres of Land: 2.3 million
Wilderness Acres: 751,900
Roadless Acres: 640,000
Miles of System Trails: 2,500
Miles of System Road: 1,900
Miles of Streams: 4,000ย
Ski Resorts/Acres: 12 Resorts, 45,500 acres
Number of Campgrounds/ Picnic Areas: 85
Visitors per year: 9.2 million
This story, and Aspen Journalismโs ongoing coverage of challenges facing local public lands, is supported by a grant from the Fund for Investigative Journalism.
After weeks of hot, dry and windy weather across western Colorado, Gunnison County Commissioners received a water-issues update on Tuesday that was filled with โsoberingโ news. In addition to details about Gunnison Countyโs worsening drought conditions, commissioners heard from representatives of the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) that the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is once again considering emergency releases from Blue Mesa Reservoir to bolster falling water levels in Lake Powell [in 2026, h/t Sue Serling].
West Drought Monitor map August 12, 2025.
According to drought.gov, approximately 50% of Gunnison County is in โextremeโ drought, compared to just 5% one month ago. Conditions in most of the remainder of the county are rated as โsevere.โ Precipitation for most of the county has been between 25% and 50% of normal for the past 30 days, with little immediate relief in sight.
CWCB representative Amy Ostdiek told commissioners she believes emergency releases will come from elsewhere in the Upper Basin this year, but couldnโt rule out the possibility that Blue Mesa would be included…If current conditions persist, Lake Powell is projected to fall below the critical elevation of 3,525 feet above sea level in the spring of 2026. This would be the second time that has occurred since the reservoir filled in 1980. The other time happened in 2021, precipitating emergency releases from Blue Mesa Reservoir and Flaming Gorge and Navajo reservoirs totaling 180,000 acre-feet. An acre-foot is the volume of water that would cover one acre a foot deep.
As of Aug. 10, Blue Mesa was 61% full and is projected to end the year at 51% of its storage capacity โ without any additional releases. Taylor Reservoir is forecasted to be at 65% of average capacity at the end of 2025. The threshold of 3,525 feet at Lake Powell was agreed to in the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement as the trigger point for possible releases. The purpose is to prevent Lake Powell from dropping below 3,490 feet, known as โdead poolโ โ the point at which the Glen Canyon Dam can no longer generate electricity. Up to 5 million people across six western states depend on hydroelectric power from the dam. Emergency releases in 2021 were controversial. Critics argued that federal authorities did not properly consult with Upper Basin water users prior to the decision and failed to account for impacts to local economies and communities. Further, many objected on the grounds that water managers had no way of measuring whether the extra water in fact reached Lake Powell.
Lake Pleasant (pictured), located north of Phoenix, serves as the Central Arizona Projectโs water storage reservoir, as well as being a popular recreational amenity. Water shortages are impacting Colorado River basin reservoirs such as Lake Mead in Nevada and Lake Powell, which stretches across northern Arizona and southern Utah. Environmental changes throughout the Southwest are presenting challenges to maintaining flows. Photo courtesy of Central Arizona Project
Arizona is about to enter a new era when it comes to water rights and distribution.
The stateโs main source of surface water โ the Colorado River โ has been dwindling as a result of climate change and increased water demand.
That means less water for approximately 40 million people in two countries, seven states and 30 Native American tribes. And the rules that govern how states face water cuts are set to expire on Dec. 31, 2026.
The seven states involved have struggled to reach an agreement regarding the future of these cuts. But whatever the outcome may be of negotiations or potential litigation between these seven states, experts say that Valley residents face significant water risks, including:
Arizona could lose up to 40% of its water supply.
The Central Arizona Water Project could be significantly cut and would deliver less water.
The reuse of water will become paramount to the state, including turning wastewater into drinking water.
One Arizona State University expert says not to panic but be prepared to open your wallet.
Rhett Larson, the Richard Morrison Professor of Water Law at ASUโs Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law, estimates water prices could significantly increase in some parts of the Valley if Arizona cannot come to an equitable and sustainable agreement with the other six states on how to share in decreased flows of the Colorado River.
โArizona is not running out of water. We are running out of cheap water,โ said Larson, who is also a senior research fellow with the Kyl Center for Water Policy at ASU’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy. โThis means not just higher water rates, but also difficult choices on economic trade-offs โ for example, higher food prices due to less water for agriculture but lower housing prices with more water for residential growth.โ
ASU News spoke to several water policy scholars to get a behind-the-scenes look at how the seven states are working together on the new agreement, what are some viable options in case of a shortfall, and what Arizonaโs future looks like when it comes to its most precious resource.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
A ticking clock
Over the past century, the Colorado River’s flow has declined by about 20%. With rising temperatures and declining Rocky Mountain snowpack, scientists have predicted flow reductions of up to 30% by mid-century.
The seven states within the Colorado River basin are under increasing pressure to develop long-term management strategies, as the existing agreements are set to expire at the end of 2026. A significant challenge lies in managing the persistent drought while balancing the requirements of stakeholders, including agricultural interests, urban water consumers, environmental needs and Indigenous rights holders.
In response to a prolonged drought, diminishing storage capacities and increasing demands for Colorado River water, the secretary of the interior issued a directive in May 2005 for reclamation to formulate enhanced strategies aimed at optimizing the coordinated management of the reservoirs within the Colorado River system.
On April 23, 2007, all seven states signed an interim agreement that memorialized the consensus recommendation to the secretary. Those rules have remained in place for the last 18 years, but the flow of recent events demand dramatic action.
โThereโs no way that this ends without lower water supplies in Arizona,โ Larson said. โEven the best-case scenario means that Arizona will have to make do with less water.โ
However, Larson said thereโs been progress as of late. He said there is a proposal on the table where the upper basin states would shift the way the water is measured to align more closely with reality.
โThere have been some promising breakthroughs, but it could also collapse into litigation,โ said Larson, who is representing Arizona in the agreement.
โThereโs a decent chance the states of the basin will sue each other in the United States Supreme Court, and who knows how that will play out?โ he said.
Options on the table
If the seven Colorado River basin states canโt come to an agreement by the deadline, Arizona does have other water options. Some are legal, some are logistical and some are long shots. And they all come with a price tag.
โTrends are pointing to the fact that the Colorado River is becoming drier and I think it would be safe to say that the Central Arizona Project wonโt be as large a provider of water as at present,โ said Enrique Vivoni, ASUโs Fulton Professor of Hydrosystems Engineering in the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment and the director of the Center for Hydrologic Innovations. โSo, if thatโs the case, it means Arizona will have to start thinking about replacing that water supply. That would require investments.โ
Vivoni, whose research focuses on hydrology and water resources, said Arizona has several water augmentation options at its disposal. They include groundwater extraction, water desalination, reservoir expansion, wastewater reclamation and interbasin transfers from other areas.
All these options require complex agreements and investments.
For example, Vivoni said groundwater extraction would require major investment in infrastructure, such as new wells and pipelines to bring water supplies to existing systems. The desalination option could involve paying to build a plant in Mexico in exchange for a portion of their Colorado River water. Expansion of Arizonaโs Bartlett Reservoir capacity will require raising the dam to retain more Verde River water.
โAll of these options require capital expenses and large operations and maintenance costs on an annual basis,โ Vivoni said. โItโs going to require some hard choices. There will be some winners and some losers, and itโs going to require some behavioral changes by individuals, residents, communities, industry and cities.โ
By measuring the gravitational pull of water for more than two decades, NASA satellites have peered beneath the surface and measured changes in the groundwater supplies of the Colorado River Basin for years 2015 to 2024. Credit: NASA
Pressure on groundwater
In addition to the costs of tapping groundwater, ASU researchers recently reported that the stateโs unseen groundwater losses have been great as well.
Karem Abdelmohsen, Jay Famiglietti and colleagues used orbiting satellites to measure changes in groundwater from 2002 to 2024 in the Colorado River basin, in comparison to losses in streamflow and reservoir storage.
The satellite study found that groundwater depletion accounted for more than half of the total water storage loss in the upper Colorado River basin and more than two-thirds of losses in the lower Colorado River basin, which is greater than the losses in lakes Powell and Mead.
โThe rate of depletion has actually accelerated over the last decade,โ said Famiglietti, science director for ASUโs Arizona Water Innovation Initiative.
With less access to water from the Colorado River, demand for groundwater will grow. Famiglietti said that the effectiveness of groundwater management varies across the Colorado River basin states, leaving the resource open to overexploitation.
Cautious optimism abounds
If the seven states donโt come to an agreement soon, one possible scenario is that the secretary of the interior would make unilateral decisions on cuts and deliveries. Such actions would likely lead to lawsuits challenging the secretaryโs authority to do so.
โNot having a consensus agreement in place means we could go from relative certainty about the conditions of shortage to total uncertainty,โ said Kathryn Sorensen, who oversees the research efforts of the Kyl Center for Water Policy, serves as a professor of practice at the Watts College of Public Service and Community Solutions and contributes to the Global Futures Laboratory. โWhat we donโt want is someone making those decisions for us.โ
That lack of certainty could lead to many drawbacks, according to Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy.
โBeing in the dark about this situation could lead to higher (water) prices,โ Porter said. โIt could also lead to a disruption in economic development and the stateโs prosperity. Not having clarity regarding how much water will be available over the long term could impact the stateโs ability to attract industry. If thereโs too much uncertainty about our long-term water supplies, then weโre not a good bet for investment.โ
But water scarcity is not a new issue for Arizona. The state has a history of managing limited resources for collective benefit.
And thatโs reason for hope as the state faces these current challenges.
โIf you look at the history of water management in the Phoenix area, itโs a story of adaptation and overcoming obstacles and finding ways to be innovative,โ Sorensen said. โWe know how to do more with less, and weโre good at it.โ
Weโre also good at problem-solving and finding solutions, Porter said.
โIโm very optimistic about our water future because weโve had over 100 years as a seven-state basin to figure out solutions,โ Porter said. โIโm also optimistic because Iโve seen how creative and dedicated Arizona municipal water managers are โ theyโre resourceful, prepared and have their short- and long-term plans in place.
โI think thereโs going to be water to help us enjoy a good quality of life and a thriving economy for central Arizona for a long time.โ
ASU News reporter Joe Rojas-Burke contributed to this article.
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
An undated historic photo shows the U.S. Forest Service ranger near the Mount of the Holy Cross. Before the turn of the 20th century, public lands lacked formal protection. โNowhere has the strength and vitality of America been better reflected in the last 100 years than in the evolution of the National Forest System,โ a forest official wrote in 1990. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Editorโs note: This story is part two of a three-part series examining the notion of public lands, both in the United States and in our region. Part one looks at the earliest expressions of the commons in territories that would become the United States. Parts two and three look at the history and legacy of what is now the White River National Forest.
The evolution of the White River National Forest (WRNF) in just over a century mirrors the settlement of the American West โ from an unregulated, free-for-all wilderness to strategically managed industrial tourism and sustainable, extractive industries. As the WRNF formed, it refined its management purview over user groups as they expanded from traditional timber and ranching to the ski areas, recreation sites and wilderness terrain that define the forest today.
Beginning with its original designation as a forest reserve in 1891, forest management was besieged by militant factions that argued against any management at all. This was an era when user groups included homestead farmers, fiercely independent ranchers and opportunistic loggers. Shrill denunciations and blatant noncompliance often occurred with these original land claimants who argued that public lands should be designated for those who came first and that its uses should be for what was best for them alone. Only as the forest adapted to changing times and needs did the multiuse mandate create opportunities and protections for all.
A prime example was Fred Light, a traditional rancher in the Roaring Fork Valley from the 1880s who at first resented the overlay of federal control over lands where he and other ranchers had grazed their cattle with no oversight and no fees. Light later came to appreciate the forest as it protected his interests from other users who threatened to overrun grazing lands, usurp water from the range or, in other ways, impinge on grazing entitlements. Lightโs shift in temperament and his eventual willingness to follow forest regulations reflected a growing, if reluctant, acceptance that management principles are essential for all forest users to ensure equal access to the public commons.
Lightโs transformation spread to other users as complexities arose around the need for sustainability. As a result, the forest mission grew into the broader interpretation of what is the best and highest use for all. This egalitarian approach required a deep and pragmatic exploration of values and resources that led to accommodating conflicting interests.
In the early days of the WRNF, however, forestry officials were immersed in countless disputes and occasional violent conflicts. Rangers were harassed, beaten and fired upon as they performed their duties according to the evolving directives of forest administrators. Juggling over the ensuing decades the utilitarian and esoteric aspects of this remarkably diverse topography of mountains, valleys, meadows, forests and rock-and-ice alpine splendor has required scientifically based and diplomatically advanced regulations to avoid the impacts of overgrazing, timber clear-cutting, mining, overcrowded recreation and other issues yet to surface.
Through it all, the WRNF remains public land โ 2.3 million acres (3,593.75 square miles) of the most visited national forest in the United States, stewarded by rangers trained with the necessary skills of backwoodsmen, diplomats, defenders, peacemakers, resource managers and ecologists.
The story of the WRNF is therefore a weave of time and place, and of a people for whom the forest is both an economic lifeblood and a battleground for conservation and preservation. For many, the forest is a place of sacred, cherished, iconic and legacy landscapes in which any and all visitors may experience and celebrate the power and splendor of pristine nature.
The White River Plateau Timber Land Reserve, the second federal forest reserve to be created, came into existence in 1891 and has evolved into the White River National Forest we know today as the most visited national forest in the country. Its management purview reflects two centuries of tension between exploitation and preservation for the greater good. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Snowmass Mountain is shown in a historic U.S. Forest Service photo. The architecture of the White River National Forest was determined by vast and nearly incomprehensible geologic forces that shaped the mountain landscapes we see today. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Public lands with no protection
In a foreword to Justine Irwinโs unpublished manuscript โWhite River National Forest: A Centennial History,โ Thomas Hoots, the WRNF supervisor in 1990, led off with a crucial observation: โBefore the turn of the century, the public lands were without a protector.โ The national commons was being plundered and exploited by whoever got there first. Such was the opportunism that was rampant during the fever of westward expansion marked by Manifest Destiny and a willful disregard to impose limits on human agency.
This land hunger was described the following way by Gifford Pinchot, chief of the U.S. Forest Service from 1898 to 1910 and one of Americaโs original wise use conservationists: โThere is no hunger like land hunger, and no object for which men are more ready to use unfair and desperate means than the acquisition of land.โ
Pinchot led a growing advocacy for conservation of national resources against great odds as they lobbied for protection of federal lands from the unbridled influences of capitalistic greed.
Richard A. Ballinger, secretary of the interior from 1909-11, clearly defined a prevailing view: โYou chaps who are in favor of this conservation program are all wrong. In my opinion, the proper course to take with regard to [the public domain] is to divide it up among the big corporations and the people who know how to make money out of it.โ
Thanks to those with clearer vision for a public lands legacy for America, the world and for future generations, Ballingerโs idea did not come to fruition. And yet such has been the message from the transactional Trump administration as the monetization of public lands offers yet again the potential for financial gain.
Thirty-five years ago, Hoots described a different ethic: โThe nationโs leadership recognized this dilemma and so began the long climb towards public land and resource management as we know it today. Nowhere has the strength and vitality of America been better reflected in the last 100 years than in the evolution of the National Forest System.โ
Gifford Pinchot portrait via the Forest History Society
The WRNF is an integral part of that system. It is also a stellar example of a forest that has withstood numerous threats and, despite many compromises toward achieving the multiple-use mandate, has retained the conservation principles that has made it one of the most successful stories of land management in the United States. โThe strength of our nation,โ concluded Hoots on the centennial of the WRNF, โdemands nothing less of the stewards of these public resources.โ
Federal forest management dates to 1876 when Congress created the office of special agent in the U.S. Department of Agriculture to assess the quality and conditions of forests in the United States. In 1881, the department expanded the office into the Division of Forestry. A decade later, Congress passed the Forest Reserve Act of 1891, authorizing the president to designate public lands in the West into what were then called โforest reserves.โ
Enter what would become the White River National Forest, the preliminary boundaries of which were drawn on federal maps under the direction of administrators in Washington, D.C. These long-distance planners for a realm of national treasures gazed over mountainous regions whose value they could only speculate, but which they reasoned were valuable in ways other than extractive, fast-buck profits measured only in capital gains for the few.
Responsibility for these reserves fell under the Department of the Interior until 1905 when President Theodore Roosevelt transferred their care to the Department of Agricultureโs new division: the U.S. Forest Service. Pinchot led this agency as its first chief, charged with caring for the newly renamed public commons.
The WRNF was created as the White River Plateau Timber Land Reserve on Oct. 16, 1891, by President Benjamin Harrison. This reserve was the second oldest in the newly conceived forest system, after a reserve established east of Yellowstone National Park, which two decades earlier became the countryโs first national park. The WRNF would become the largest forest in Colorado when, in 1945, it absorbed the Holy Cross National Forest, created as a reserve in 1905. This newly defined national forest was a priority because it was being exploited with unsustainable resource extraction. It soon earned a place of immeasurable importance in the mosaic of public lands designated across the rugged western United States.
A geologic map of Colorado, produced by the survey team led by Ferdinand Hayden in 1873-74, helped draw prospectors to the mountains. CREDIT: DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
Nature laid the foundation
The architecture of the WRNF was determined by vast and nearly incomprehensible geologic forces that shaped the mountain landscapes we see today. Precambrian granite is the bedrock that was heaved up, twisted, broken, eroded and later covered with beds of sandstone and, later still, covered with an inland seaway that stretched from Mexico to Canada.
That seaway propagated plant and marine life-forms that speak to a far-different climate and ecology than today and that would eventually, under enormous pressure, form into huge coal deposits. This Cretaceous Seaway then gave rise to new landscapes as several major uplifts shed the accumulated water into major river systems and began building the mountain peaks rising from the bedrock floor. The uplifting, some from magma upwelling, brought metals and minerals to the surface where they were dissolved in super-heated groundwater and conveyed in solution into bedrock faults and fissures where they precipitated out at concentration. This formed the veins that gold and silver miners would later extract through labyrinthine tunnels and shafts.
Glaciation sculpted the finishing touches on the landscape by paring mountains into ragged escarpments and precipitous arรชtes, and gouging deep U-shaped valleys where glacial runoff cut deeper still in the V-shaped drainages that we see today. Natureโs work is never complete, and so the mountains and valleys continue to be formed by erosion and an almost immeasurable continued uplifting from energies emanating from Earthโs depths.
Then biology stepped in and established an overlay of life, the flora and fauna that we see today inhabiting the niches where they are genetically suited to proliferate and thrive. These are the desert scrublands, grassy meadows, mixed forests and lichen-covered alpine terrain comprising a half-dozen life zones and multiple ecosystems that give the WRNF the diversity that characterizes a healthy and vibrant ecology.
The forest is home to one of the largest mule deer herds and one of the largest elk herds in the nation, as well as bighorn sheep, mountain goats, black bears, mountain lions, snowshoe hare, marmot, porcupine, badger, marten, ground squirrels and chipmunks, hundreds of bird types, and thousands of plant species in a veritable Garden of Eden of biodiversity.
But the human stories are what capture our imaginations, as noted in Irwinโs WRNF Centennial History; the people of the forest have differed greatly in their relationship to it: โSome have loved her, some have abused her, some have hated her, but all have made her what she is today.โ
A map shows the route of the 1776 Dominguez-Escalante expedition, led by two Spanish priests trying to find a way from Santa Fe to California. They reached Utah Lake before turning back, becoming the first Europeans to explore a vast portion of what would later become Colorado and Utah. CREDIT: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
The first Europeans
The first Europeans to visit the region of the WRNF and enter the traditional homelands of the native Utes were Spanish Franciscan friars Fray Silvestre Velez de Escalante and Fray Francisco Atanasio Dominguez. The two explorers and their party left Santa Fe on an ambitious exploratory mission to find an overland route to the Roman Catholic mission in Monterey, in what later became California. They ventured into the Western wilderness in July 1776, the same year the American colonies declared independence from British rule.
After traversing what is now northern New Mexico and southwest Colorado, the party traveled north, eventually passing through the Paonia area and Muddy Creek. They met the Colorado River near Divide and Mamm creeks along the Grand Hogback, a diagonal sawtooth range near Silt and New Castle. With Ute guides, they crossed the White and Green rivers, making it as far as what is now known as Utah Lake along the Wasatch Front, where they encountered a thriving indigenous community. With winter approaching, the party turned back toward Santa Fe and faced starvation as they struggled to cross the Colorado River at a location now flooded by Lake Powell, but all made it back alive.
The Louisiana Purchase of 1803 opened the door to more exploration, this from the east where a few adventuresome parties reached Coloradoโs Front Range. The towering Rockies were considered too severe an obstacle to pass through, except for freelancing traders and trappers who knew no bounds and no limits in their pursuit of trade and beaver pelts.
A French trapper, Antoine Robidoux, was perhaps the first Anglo to trap in the White River in 1825, harvesting beaver pelts from Trappers Lake on the north side of the Flat Tops. The Yampa Valley, to the north, became widely visited by mountain men such as Jim Bridger, Kit Carson and Jedediah Smith.
John Fremont, an Army officer and explorer, took part in an 1845 journey that crossed Tennessee Pass from the Arkansas River basin and then followed the White River into Utah. Credit: Wikimedia Commons
The seizing of Texas from Mexico in 1836 by Sam Houston stretched the promising Western U.S. boundaries, inviting more visitation as manifest destiny became a divine entitlement for Western settlement and provided a God-given mandate to force out native peoples and exploit the land and its many resources.
In 1845, John Fremont, guided by Carson, crossed Tennessee Pass from the Arkansas Valley and along the White River to Utah. With the announcement that gold had been discovered in California, streams of fortune-seekers flowed west through Colorado, many of whom recognized the grazing potential of verdant mountain valleys well-watered by rolling streams and rivers. After striking out on California gold, some returned to what would, in 1876, become Colorado to farm and raise cattle. The discovery of gold along Cherry Creek, near todayโs Denver, made Colorado a hot new prospect in 1859, popularizing this mostly unmapped territory.
The next year, 1860, Capt. Richard Sopris, for whom Mount Sopris is named, prospected the Roaring Fork Valley with a party of 14. In journals, it was mentioned that they stopped to take in the soothing waters of Yampa Hot Springs at todayโs Glenwood Springs. The Homestead Act was passed by Congress in 1862, encouraging more western migration and providing a relief valve for growing national tensions during the Civil War.
Official U.S. survey teams were sent west to report on resources and tribal relations. Foremost among them was John Wesley Powell, a Civil War veteran who had lost his right arm in the Battle of Shiloh, but it didnโt impede him from exploring the Green, Yampa, White and Colorado rivers. By the early 1870s, cattlemen began grazing their herds in Brownโs Park and the Meeker area in what would become northern Colorado.
As permanent settlements became established, some officials in the federal government became aware that Western lands had no protective management. They garnered congressional funding for a particularly seasoned survey team under the leadership of Ferdinand Vandeveer Hayden, who would later win acclaim for surveying Yellowstone. Haydenโs 1873-74 visits to the Gunnison Country, the Roaring Fork Valley and the White River produced maps that would later draw hordes of mining prospectors into Ute lands in the late 1870s.
The Hayden Survey produced detailed drawings of multiple mountainscapes across Colorado, including these depictions of Pikes Peak, the Sawatch Range and Elk Range. CREDIT: DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
Hayden and his โRover Boys,โ including renowned photographer and artist William Henry Jackson and geographer Henry Gannett, for whom the highest peak in Wyoming is named, summited, triangulated, mapped and named most of the major peaks that we know and climb today. The scientific acumen that this team provided was monumental in their understanding of geology, flora and fauna. Hayden correctly referred to the Elk Mountains as an example of an โeruptive rangeโ and a โgeologic jumbleโ for the upheavals he recognized. Described as โtall, slender, with soft brown hair and blue eyes,โ Hayden, a consummate geologist, was given a nickname by the Utes that translated to โcrazy man who runs around picking up rocks.โ
A letter from Rover Boy J.T. Gardner to his daughter in New York state characterized what must have been a crowning moment in history to witness a pure wilderness: โWe are in full tide of successful career camping almost every night at 11,000 or 12,000 feet and climbing peaks 14,000 feet and over, their tops overlooking crested ridges and grand rock-walled amphitheaters where old glaciers were born, I cannot tell you how I am enjoying this wonderful region. โฆ What a sweet sight. โฆ The terrible grandeur around me here where life is represented by the grim bears crawling along the edges of perpetual snow fields or the mountain sheep scaling the shattered crags.โ
In a later letter, Gardner described the partyโs discovery of Mount of the Holy Cross where a horizontal ridge and vertical couloir form a snow-filled cross. โWe are undoubtedly the first who have ever reached this peak. I do not feel in the least over-fatigued and am very well and strong.โ Enduring an early-winter storm, Gardner wrote: โOn this climb I wore four heavy shirts and a thick buckskin coat. The snow blew so that I had to wear spectacles to protect the eyes.โ
Hayden spent 20 days nursing a sick member of the party at the base of Mount Sopris while his party explored the Crystal River Valley, with Jackson photographing it all. Unfortunately for history, Jacksonโs load-bearing mule stumbled and fell into the Crystal River, breaking the glass plate negatives. All photographic documentation from that portion of the survey was lost.
Nonetheless, Haydenโs Atlas of Colorado was published by the U.S. Department of the Interior in 1877, featuring six finely drawn resource maps identifying forests, pastures, croplands, and regions of coal, gold and silver. These geologic maps became a spur for treasure-seekers eager to flood into Ute lands. And there lay the age-old conflict between European trespass on the Western Slope of Colorado still controlled by the Utes under treaties, later broken, that were doomed at keeping the peace.
This story, and Aspen Journalismโs ongoing coverage of challenges facing local public lands, is supported by a grant from the Fund for Investigative Journalism.
The Middle Colorado Watershed Council (MCWC), in partnership with Garfield County and state and federal funders, broke ground on the Roan Creek Fish Barrier Project on Tuesday, August 5. This long-anticipated conservation infrastructure project has been five years in the making and aligns directly with MCWCโs Integrated Water Management Plan (IWMP), a framework that dovetails with the larger Colorado Water Plan.
Located in a remote stretch of Roan Creek in western Garfield County, the project will construct a permanent fish barrier to protect one of Coloradoโs most unique native fish assemblagesโincluding a rare genetic strain of Colorado River cutthroat trout, as well as bluehead sucker, Paiute sculpin and speckled dace. These species are increasingly rare across the Colorado River Basin, with cutthroat trout occupying just one percent of their historic range.
The project is primarily funded through the Bureau of Reclamationโs WaterSMART Program, under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Additional support comes from the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB), Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) , the Colorado River Districtโs Community Funding Partnership and the Trout and Salmon Foundation. In total, the project represents a $1,034,995 investment in watershed health and habitat.
โThis is a win-win for both water users and native fish,โ said Garfield County Commissioner Perry Will, who served more than 40 years with CPW, including as a state wildlife officer and supervisor. โGarfield County is proud to support this project as a Category A partner, helping leverage the funding and collaboration it took to get here. The cutthroat trout in Roan Creek represent an incredibly unique genetic lineageโadapted to survive even in 80-degree waters. Keeping nonnative species like brook and rainbow trout out of this system is essential to preserving that rare genetic makeup and ensuring these fish continue to thrive.โ
The project will also replace outdated irrigation infrastructure, eliminate push-up dams and install a modern concrete diversion with a headgate, fish screen and flow-measuring device โimproving efficiency for water users while benefiting stream function and aquatic habitat.
Early funding from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) supported the 90-percent design phase, completed in 2021 by Wright Water Engineers with guidance from BLM liaison and fisheries biologist Thomas Fresques.
โThe construction of the fish passage barrier on Roan Creek marks a major step toward protecting and sustaining its unique native fishery,โ said Assistant Area Wildlife Manager Albert Romero. โFor more than 15 years, CPW and partnersโincluding the BLM, local landowners and many othersโhave worked extensively throughout the drainage to conserve this vital resource.โ
The Roan Creek Fish Barrier is the result of strong collaboration across local, state and federal partners. Garfield County played a key role as the Category A partner for Bureau of Reclamation funding, helping to secure vital federal support. The Middle Colorado Watershed Council continues to lead grant administration and stakeholder coordination. Wright Water Engineers serves in the project management role, and Kissner General Contractors, Inc. is constructing the structure.
โThe Roan Creek Fish Barrier project is a great example of how targeted, local investments and partnerships can complete projects that support multiple benefits,โ said Melissa Wills, Community Funding Partnership Program Manager at the Colorado River District. โUpgrading this infrastructure brings lasting benefits to both native ecosystems and the agricultural community. Through our Accelerator Grant Program, the River District is proud to have helped secure significant state and federal funding and to be part of the collaborative effort that made this project possible.โ
The outflow at the bottom of Navajo Dam in New Mexico. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism
From email from the Bureau of Reclamation (Conor Felletter):
The Bureau of Reclamation has scheduled an increase in the release from Navajo Dam to 850 cubic feet per second (cfs) from the current release of 800 cfs for Tuesday, August 12, at 4:00 AM.
Releases are made for the authorized purposes of the Navajo Unit, and to attempt to maintain a target base flow through the endangered fish critical habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to Lake Powell). The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout the critical habitat area from Farmington to Lake Powell.
This scheduled release change is subject to changes in river flows and weather conditions. If you have any questions, please contact Conor Felletter (cfelletter@usbr.gov or 970-637-1985), or visit Reclamationโs Navajo Dam website athttps://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html
Reclamation conducts Public Operations Meetings three times per year to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies along with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. The next meeting will be held Tuesday, August 19th at 1:00 PM. This meeting is open to the public with hybrid options, in person at the Civic Center in Farmington, NM (200 W Arrington St, Farmington, NM 87401, Rooms 4&5) and virtual using Microsoft Teams. Register for the webinar at this link
From email from the Bureau of Reclamation (Conor Felletter):
On Monday, August 11 at 8pm MT, Reclamation will increase releases from Crystal Dam to 1,700 cfs from the current release of 1,650 cfs. Gunnison Tunnel diversions remain at 1025 cfs. Gunnison River flows in the Black Canyon/Gunnison Gorge, currently ~590 cfs, are anticipated to increase to ~640 cfs.
Releases are made for the authorized purposes of the Aspinall Unit, and to maintain target base flows through the endangered fish habitat along the Gunnison River between Delta and Grand Junction.
Reclamation conducts Public Operations Meetings three times per year to gather input for determining upcoming operations for the Aspinall Unit & Gunnison River. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies along with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested parties concerning the Aspinall Unit & Gunnison River. The next Operations Group meeting will be held on August 21, 2025 at 1:00 p.m in Montrose, CO at the Holiday Inn Express (1391 S. Townsend Ave). This meeting is open to the public with a virtual option using Microsoft Teams. Register for the webinar at this link.
Contact Conor Felletter (cfelletter@usbr.gov or 970-637-1985) for more information regarding Aspinall operations or the Operation Group meeting.
The main topic of the most recent Rio Blanco Water Conservancy meeting was news that despite the recent $2.5 Million repair, the Hydro power unit is not in operation yet. Originally, the hydraulics seized due to solids in the oil, all the oil has been flushed and replaced and the hydraulics are in working order. Currently they are working on the part known as the face seal. It is being refurbished in California and will be delivered and installed asap. Once the face seal is installed then RBWCD will finalize wet testing to verify that it is properly functioning before going fully online with it.
The issue was discovered while the hydro power unit was running during the initial wet testing. They ran the hydro for approximately 12 hours over a couple of days. At this time is when the stuck face seal was discovered. It appears that this part may have been faulty for several years and it is the belief of the contractor, engineer and RBWCD Staff that this fix will help remedy these persistent issues the hydro has been having.
CPW and RBWCD is working on education and prevention for the zebra mussels at Kenney Reservoir. The lake has seen an increase of use due to closures of other lakes in the area due to mussels, capacity restrictions and construction.
The District continues to solicit responses to their Irrigation Study and Recreation Study and intend on using the results to support in NEPA (National Environmental Protection Act) for the Wolf Creek mega reservoir project. According to Executive Director Alden Vanden Brink, they are having better than expected participation. The next survey will be a Rangely Water Needs assessment.
The Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) Board of Directors voted at a July 31 special meeting to immediately enter stage two drought under the districtโs drought management plan due to low water levels in area rivers and other concerns. At the meeting, PAWSD District Engineer/Manager Justin Ramsey explained that drought stages for PAWSD are based on water levels in Hatcher Reservoir, which is used to supply water to the uptown Pagosa Springs area; water levels in the San Juan River, which is used to supply water to the downtown area; and what the state drought stage for the area is. He stated that the heaviest weight in the drought calculation is on the level of Hatcher Lake, the second heaviest weight is on the San Juan River and the third heaviest is on the state drought stage.
Ramsey noted that Hatcher is in โreally good shape…However, Ramsey commented that the San Juan River is โlowโ at 48 cubic feet per second (cfs) as of the day of the meeting and that the state drought stage for the area is stage two, which indicates severe drought.
These days, thereโs a lot that divides the Colorado delegation along party lines. But one thing theyโre all in agreement on is the need for the federal government to release about $140 million itโs holding onto for 15 water projects across the state.
โWe ask you to move forward with obligating the remaining $140 million worth of Bucket 2 projects in Colorado โ not just for the benefit of our state, but for the resilience of the entire Colorado River Basin,โ urges the delegation letter [from Sen. John Hickenlooper, Hurd, Sen. Michael Bennet, and Reps. Jeff Crank, Joe Neguse, Gabe Evans, Brittany Pettersen, Lauren Boebert, Diana DeGette and Jeff Crow].
Among the awards was $40 million to purchase the Shoshone water rights from Xcel Energy and transfer them to the Colorado River District. The other projects deal with watershed restoration, restoring or improving habitats, improving wetlands and improving water health. As the letter points out, Congress allocated $4 billion in Bidenโs signature climate, tax and health care law to deal with theย ongoing drought in the Colorado River Basin.ย The Bucket 2 funding was awarded on January 17, but that was just the first step for money to be distributed to the projects. Typically, contracts or agreements have to be signed before the money is actually obligated and distributed. Still, even if that had been completed before the change of administrations, one of Trumpโs first executive ordersย paused all funding appropriated through the IRA.
The Colorado River is in trouble: Not as much water flows into the river as people are entitled to take out of it. A new idea might change that, but complicated political and practical negotiations stand in the way.
The river and its tributaries provide water for about 5 million acres of cropland and pasture, hydroelectric power for millions of people, recreation in the Grand Canyon, and critical habitat for fish and other wildlife. Thirty federally recognized Native American tribes assert rights to water from the Colorado River system. It is also an important source of drinking water for cities within the Colorado River Basin, including Phoenix, Tucson and Las Vegas, and cities outside the basin, such as Los Angeles, San Diego, Salt Lake City, Denver and Albuquerque.
The 1922 Colorado Compact divided the 250,000-square-mile Colorado River Basin into an Upper Basin โ which includes parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, as well as the northeastern corner of Arizona โ and a Lower Basin, encompassing most of Arizona and parts of California and Nevada. The compact apportions each basin 7.5 million acre-feet of water from the river each year. An acre-foot of water is enough to cover 1 acre in water 1 foot deep, which amounts to approximately 326,000 gallons. According to a 2021 estimate from the Arizona Department of Water Resources, 1 acre-foot is sufficient to supply 3.5 single-family households in Arizona for one year.
Anticipating a future treaty with Mexico for sharing Colorado River water, the compact specified that Mexico should be supplied first with any surplus available and any additional amount needed โborne equallyโ by the two divisions. A 1944 water-sharing treaty between Mexico and the U.S. guarantees Mexico at least 1.5 million acre-feet of Colorado River water annually.
The compact also specified that the Upper Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming โwill not cause the flow of the river โฆ to be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre-feet for any period of 10 consecutive years.โ
The Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada contend that this provision is a โdelivery obligation,โ requiring the Upper Basin to ensure that over any 10-year period, a total of at least 75 million acre-feet flows to the Lower Basin.
By contrast, the Upper Basin states contend that the language merely creates a โnon-depletion obligationโ that caps their collective use at 7.5 million acre-feet per year in times when additional use by the Upper Basin would cause less than 75 million acre-feet to be delivered to the Lower Basin over a 10-year period.
This disagreement over the compactโs language is at the heart of the differences between the two basins.
Snowfall in Western mountains, including the Flatirons outside Boulder, Colo., is the primary source of water for the Colorado River Basin. AP Photo/Thomas Peipert
A small source area
Nearly all of the water in the Colorado River system comes from snow that falls in the Rocky Mountains in the Upper Basin. About 85% of the Colorado Basinโs flows come from just 15% of the basinโs surface area. Most of the rest of the basinโs lands are arid or semi-arid, receiving less than 20 inches of precipitation a year and contributing little to the flows of the Colorado River and its tributaries.
Rain and snowfall vary dramatically from year to year, so over the course of the 20th century, the Colorado Basin states โ with the assistance of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the agency of the Department of the Interior responsible for operating federal water and power projects in the U.S. West โ developed a complex system of reservoirs to capture the extra water in wet years so it could be available in drier years. The most notable reservoirs in the system are Lake Mead, impounded by Hoover Dam, which was completed in 1936, and Lake Powell, impounded by Glen Canyon Dam, completed in 1966.
Over the past 25 years, the quantity of water stored in Lake Mead and Lake Powell has declined significantly. A primary driver of this decline is a lengthy drought likely amplified by climate change: One study estimated that the region may be suffering its driest spell in 1,200 years.
But human errors are also adding up. The Colorado Compactโs original negotiators made unrealistically optimistic assumptions about the riverโs average annual flow โ perhaps knowingly. In their book โScience be Dammed,โ Colorado River experts Eric Kuhn and John Fleck document how compact negotiators willfully or wishfully ignored available data about the riverโs actual flows. Kuhn and Fleck argue the negotiators knew it would be decades before demand would exceed the riverโs water supply, and they wanted to sell a big vision of Southwestern development that would merit massive federal financing for reservoirs and other infrastructure.
In addition, the current Colorado River system accounting does not factor in the roughly 1.3 million acre-feet of water lost annually from Lake Mead due to evaporation into the air or seepage into the ground. This accounting gap means that under normal annual releases to satisfy the apportionments to the Lower Basin and Mexico, Lake Meadโs water level is steadily declining.
Stabilization efforts
The seven Colorado River states and Mexico have taken significant steps to stabilize the reservoirs. In 2007, they agreed to new guidelines to coordinate the operations of Lake Mead and Lake Powell to prevent either reservoir from reaching catastrophically low levels. They also agreed to reduce the amount of water available to Arizona and Nevada depending on how low Lake Meadโs levels go.
When the 2007 guidelines proved insufficient to keep the reservoir levels from declining, the Colorado Basin states and Mexico agreed in 2019 to additional measures, authorizing releases from Upper Basin reservoirs under certain conditions and additional cuts to water users in the Lower Basin and Mexico.
By 2022, projections for the reservoir levels looked so dire that the states started negotiating additional near-term measures to reduce the amount of water users withdrew from the river. The federal government helped out, too: $4 billion of Inflation Reduction Act funding has helped pay the costs of water-conservation measures, primarily by agricultural districts, cities and tribes.
These reductions are real. In 2023, Arizona, California and Nevada used only 5.8 million acre-feet of Colorado River water โ their lowest combined annual consumption since 1983. The Lower Basinโs total consumption in 2024 was slightly higher, at 6.09 million acre-feet.
Lake Powell, a key Colorado River reservoir, holds only one-third as much water as it is designed to contain. Rebecca Noble/Getty Images
A new opportunity?
With the 2007 guidelines and additional measures expiring in 2026, the deadline for a new agreement looms. As the Colorado River states try to work out a new agreement, Arizonaโs new proposal of a supply-driven approach offers hope, but the devilโs in the details. Critical components of that approach have not been ironed out โ for instance, the percentage of the riverโs flows that would be available to Arizona, California and Nevada.
If the states canโt agree, there is a chance that the secretary of the Interior, acting through the Bureau of Reclamation, may decide on his own how to balance the reservoirs and how much water to deliver out of them. That decision would almost certainly be taken to court by states or water users unhappy with the result.
And the Lower Basin states have said they are fully prepared to go to court to enforce what they believe to be the Upper Basinโs delivery obligation, which, the Upper Basin has responded, it is prepared to dispute.
In the meantime, farmers in Arizonaโs Yuma County and Californiaโs Imperial County cannot be sure that in the next few years they will have enough water to produce winter vegetables and melons for the nation. The Colorado River Basinโs municipal water providers are worried about how they will meet demands for tap water for homes and businesses. And tribal nations fear that they will not have the water they need for their farms, communities and economies.
Tubers float down the Yampa River in Steamboat Springs on July 23, 2025. A stretch of the river running near downtown can see more than 20,000 tubers through the course of the summer, but city officials sometimes roll out recreational shutdowns to protect the Yampa’s fish. Alex Hager/KUNC
Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Alex Hager):
August 5, 2025
This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West produced by KUNC and supported by the Walton Family Foundation.
On a hot summer day in Steamboat Springs, the Yampa River feels like the beating heart of the city. On a recent July afternoon, its banks teemed with people looking for a cool refuge from the mid-80s temperatures and direct sun.
Local mom Alohi Madrigal was one of them. She and two friends watched their kids jump off the rocks into the Yampaโs clear water. A steady stream of relaxed-looking tubers floated by too, sprawled out on thick, yellow inflatables.
Even at 3 p.m. on a Wednesday, this little section of the Yampa looked like a postcard-perfect picture of a summer vacation in the Colorado mountains.
But days like this are a precious commodity in Steamboat Springs. When it gets too hot, the city shuts down this specific stretch of river: a roughly six-and-a-half-mile section that flows through downtown, just steps away from the shops and restaurants. During the driest years, it can be bereft of swimmers, tubers and anglers for weeks at a time.
This year, it was already closed for four days in July, and may close again before the summer is through.
Tubers float down the Yampa River, in the shadow of Steamboat Ski Resort, on July 23, 2025. City officials close the river to recreation when it gets too hot, too low, or lacks oxygen for fish. Alex Hager/KUNC
Itโs part of an uneasy balance struck by Steamboat Springs. The Yampa is the cityโs lifeblood. Its water irrigates nearby farms and ranches. The same river supplies drinking water to homes and businesses all over town. During the summer, it becomes a mecca for vacationers who flock to the resort town for a cool mountain escape. The city estimates that more than 21,000 people took tubes down this stretch of river in 2024.
But itโs also home to fish. When the river is hot and low, too many humans in the water can setress out its fish โ causing lasting damage to their health or even killing them. That could create an unpleasant scene for all of those river users and throw the Yampaโs ecosystem out of whack.
As a result, the city enforces periodic shutdowns to keep the river healthy, even if it means people โ and businesses that can make big bucks on equipment rentals โ will have to avoid it on the days when its cool water beckons the most.
Flows for fish
Itโs easy to look at the Yampa and think about the paddlers and floaters playing on its surface. It’s also easy to forget about the silent, scaly residents beneath. But those fish are at the heart of the riverโs summer closures.
โIt pretty much all comes down to fish health,โ said Emily Burke, conservation program manager at the nonprofit Friends of the Yampa. โFish get super stressed when river temperatures reach a certain level.โ
Recreational closures on the Yampa can be triggered by three things: low water levels, high water temperature or low levels of dissolved oxygen in the water. All three make it harder for fish to survive.
Models of fish that live in the Yampa River are on display at the Steamboat Flyfisher shop in Steamboat Springs on July 24, 2025. When water is low and hot, fish can get stressed and even die. Alex Hager/KUNC
When the river gets low and hot, fish often donโt have enough oxygen to breathe, causing them to get exhausted. That could make them too tired to look for food or stop eating. Already stressed and drained of energy, the extra stress added by humans in the river can cause lasting harm to fish health and โ in some cases โ kill them.
โIf you have a bunch of people splashing around in these deep pools [that] these fish are using as refuge,โ Burke said, โIt’s really stressful for them, and it can sometimes lead to fish die-offs.โ
Measuring stations along the river gather data about its water every fifteen minutes. If the water is hotter than 75 degrees for two consecutive days or flowing lower than 85 cubic feet per second, city officials will roll out a river closure.
โA huge economic driverโ
When the Yampa is teetering on the edge of a shutdown, the people watching closest are often those whose businesses depend on it. Johnny Spillane is one of them. He owns Steamboat Flyfisher, which has a back patio that overhangs the river itself.
On a recent Thursday morning, as people milled in and out of brunch spots and started heading toward tourist activities, Spillane stood behind the counter of his store.
โYou can tell in the shop right now it’s pretty quiet,โ Spillane said. โIf it was a busy, hopping day with people fishing in town, it would be a lot busier right now.โ
The river was still open for swimming, tubing and paddling, but officially shut down for fishing.
โJuly days are our most important days as a business, so losing July days certainly hurts a little bit more,โ Spillane said. โBut at the same time, you know, losing the fish in the river would hurt a lot more than that. For us, protecting the fish, protecting the resource, is far much more important than getting an extra couple days of fishing on the town stretch, or selling a couple dozen extra flies.โ
Johnny Spillane, owner of Steamboat Flyfisher, poses in his shop on July 24, 2025. “Protecting the fish,” he said, “protecting the resource, is far much more important than getting an extra couple days of fishing on the town stretch, or selling a couple dozen extra flies.โ Alex Hager/KUNC
Spillane said the river closure doesnโt affect his business that much. Fewer people come into the store to buy equipment, but the shopโs fishing guides โ who can run more than 200 trips each week โ can take customers 20-30 minutes outside of town to other streams, rivers and lakes that are open for anglers.
Even owners of businesses that are inextricably tied to the Yampaโs โtown stretchโ share Spillaneโs mentality.
Backdoor Sports sits just a short walk downstream from the flyfishing shop. Itโs a powerhouse in the local tube renting scene. Backdoor moves so many rental tubes โ as many as 400 a day during the peak of summer โ that it has a drive-thru-style window to keep customers moving from signup to river in short order. The shop dispatches rental tubes from a literal backdoor, which lies no more than a couple dozen feet from the Yampa.
Stacks of inflatable tubes wait for renters at Backdoor Sports in Steamboat Springs on July 23, 2025. “The closures can be tough at times,” said Mike Welch, the shop’s owner, “But also necessary, because it’s good to protect what we have here.” Alex Hager/KUNC
โThe Yampa River is a huge economic driver for the city,โ said Mike Welch, a co-owner of Backdoor. โWe want to make sure that it stays that way for a lot of years to come. The closures can be tough at times, but also necessary, because it’s good to protect what we have here. It’s a wonderful, wonderful thing that we’ve got.โ
While it takes some extra preparation to steel Backdoor against changing river conditions and shutdowns, Welch said communication from city officials makes it easier.
โThe city has done a great job in setting those parameters,โ he said. โSo we know what the water is looking like and where and when those closures are potentially coming. So we can plan for it.โ
People ride a tube through the Yampa River in Steamboat Springs on July 23, 2025. The river is a major draw for tourists and locals alike during the summer. Alex Hager/KUNC
Welch bought the business alongside his brother and sister-in-law this spring. The previous owner, Pete Van De Carr, was a well-known local who died in February following a skiing accident.
Another shop owner, Marty Smith, said Van De Carr played a part in getting the city to specify its plans for reopening the river after a closure.
โEvery day, all the outfitters in town, we would get emails from Pete saying we need to come up with a rule to reopen the river,โ said Smith, owner of Mountain Sports Kayak School. โI think that they definitely listened to Pete.โ
City officials say they are trying to be more transparent about the criteria they use to reopen the Yampa for recreation and communicate directly with outfitters about upcoming changes to closures. The city consults with Colorado Parks and Wildlife before reopening the river. They consider current river conditions, weather forecasts and the amount of stress that fish may already be feeling from hot, dry conditions.
โA tough spot to be inโ
For the city officials who manage closures on the Yampa, itโs all about balance.
โWe hate having to do this,โ said Jenny Carey, the cityโs Open Space and Trails supervisor, โBecause you inevitably will hear from somebody that it’s just ruining their day, their business. And that’s tough. That’s a tough spot to be in. We don’t want to do that.โ
Carey said Steamboat Springs puts up signs and social media posts to inform people about the closures and the reasons for them.
โWe understand that people want to be in the river,โ she said, โAnd so it’s a difficult conversation. We do our best to educate as best we can. I think a lot of our locals are getting used to this, and they understand the reason.โ
While it can be rocky trying to tell out-of-town tourists that they wonโt be able to tube on a hot summer day, locals really do seem to be getting the message. In a 2024 survey of Steamboat Springs residents, 92% of people said โmanagement of the health of the Yampa Riverโ was essential or very important.
Thatโs only five points lower than the fire department. Managing the Yampaโs health ranked as more important than city parks and the police department.
โThe Yampa river is considered one of the most important services that the city provides,โ said Julie Baxter, the cityโs water resources manager. โSo we feel very grounded that we have the support of the local community members that live here in Steamboat Springs.โ
Bears play along the banks of the Yampa River in Steamboat Springs on July 23, 2025. In a survey of city residents, 92% of people said protecting the health of the river was important โ scoring it higher than city parks and the police department. Alex Hager/KUNC
Recreational closures on the Yampa are mandatory for rental shops, but technically voluntary for individuals who want to bring their own tubes or kayaks. But with so many locals on board, few people decide to take a dip.
โIf there is a closure in place and you get in the river,โ Baxter said with a chuckle, โYou will likely have a local yell at you.โ
Alohi Madrigal, who was raised in Steamboat Springs and still lives in town, watched her kids splash in a stretch of the Yampa that may be closed later this summer. She said a shutdown wouldnโt be the end of the world.
โThere’s a million things to do here,โ she said, proceeding to list off a handful of other swimming spots. โWe have to take care of the river, or it won’t be here for long.โ
Cranes and construction equipment line the shore at Gross Reservoir on June 19, 2025 in Boulder County, Colorado. The construction is part of an expansion project that will supply water to Denverโs residents. (Cassie Sherwood/The Water Desk)
Pieter Strauss used to love hosting stargazing parties at his house in the Lakeshore Park neighborhood up Flagstaff Road southwest of Boulder. The hobbyist astronomer would fire up the barbecue and spend hours showing his neighbors the night sky through his observatory and telescopes.
Straussโs house sits looking directly over Gross Reservoir, which provides water to Denver residents.
But when a project to significantly raise the reservoirโs dam began construction in 2022, those moments of neighborhood tranquility were lost for some residents. For Strauss the biggest impact was the bright construction lights used to keep work moving overnight.
โIt became impossible to sit on the deck before sunrise and after sundown, astrophotography was impossible. They lit up the skies,โ with powerful floodlights, Strauss said.
For over 20 years, residents and various environmental groups have protested the project, which suffered a series of legal blows this year. Construction on the massive dam ground to a halt in April amidst the courtroom wrangling, and subsequent decisions have cast a new level of uncertainty over large-scale water projects that propose to draw on the beleaguered Colorado River.
However, by the end of May, federal courts ruled that construction could continue due to concerns surrounding uncompleted construction and potential flooding possibilities, but that the reservoir could not be filled.
The Gross Reservoir Expansion Project involves raising the height of the existing dam by 131 feet. The dam will be built out and will have โstepsโ made of roller-compacted concrete to reach the new height. Image credit: Denver Water
Raising the dam
Gross Reservoirโs dam is owned and operated by Denver Water. The utility built it in the 1950s, with two other building phases planned to accommodate future water needs. The current dam expansion will raise the height of the dam 131 feet, tripling the current capacity of the reservoir, and providing more water for Denver Water customers.
The construction was spurred by โa combination of demands in our system, as well as concerns about climate and concerns about the needs for greater resilience in our system,โ said Jessica Brody, general counsel for Denver Water.
The need for the expansion is similar to a bank savings account, Brody said. Tripling the capacity of the reservoir is a savings account that can be drawn on in circumstances of an emergency.
โIf we have an extreme drought event, we want to have more water banks that we can help smooth the impacts to our customers,โ Brody said.
When the utility initially announced plans to begin moving forward with a dam expansion, residents of the area were concerned. Environmental threats and the disruptions from the massive construction project topped the list of worries. They attended meetings at town halls with county commissioners. They organized with other residents in and around Coal Creek canyon.
While some residents fought the expansion, others anticipated it. When the dam was initially constructed, the utility planned to expand further down the line.
Since construction began in 2022, residents have experienced noise and light pollution. Five neighbors have moved from the Lakeshore Park neighborhood. Pieter Strauss, at whose house they once held stargazing gatherings, was among them.
Beverly Kurtz, member of TEG, on Pieter Straussโs former porch overlooking Gross Reservoir on June 19, 2025. Once construction began, Strauss was no longer able to host neighborhood stargazing parties due to light pollution. (Cassie Sherwood/The Water Desk)
โThe most valuable thing to all the people who have moved up here is that they had a quiet nature sanctuary. But then when you take that away, is it worth it?โ said Anna McDermott, another resident of the area.
โWe sleep with our windows open. Not one house has air conditioning, so you sleep with your windows open in the summer months,โ she said. โYou hear these giant backup beepers crashing, grinding all night long. Even with earplugs, I canโt sleep.โ
The Environmental Group (TEG) is an organization of residents in the Lakeshore Park neighborhood and surrounding residents, focused on engaging the community in action when environmental issues arise. Along with Save the Colorado, The Sierra Club, and other environmental organizations, TEG has fought the expansion. Beverly Kurtz, former president of TEG, has worked to hold Denver Water and the companies working on the dam, Kiewit Corp. and Barnard Construction Company Inc., accountable during construction.
Heavy duty trucks are required to use a different road to access the dam rather than the paved road up Flagstaff Mountain due to fire concerns. Large semi-trucks have slid off the road due to the steep grade, which can cause traffic jams and road closures.
โAt one point they had one of the two roads down this mountain closed for five months,โ Kurtz said. โIt wasnโt until we called the sheriff out here and he realized the safety concern that they opened the road back up.โ
Legal snares slow construction
In October 2024, two years after construction began, Save the Colorado, along with other environmental groups, won a lawsuit against Denver Water. U.S. District Court judge Christine Arguello found the utilityโs dam construction permit violated the Clean Water Act and the National Environmental Policy Act. At the time, construction was able to continue and Arguello ordered the groups to work out an agreement regarding damages.
In April 2025, the judge ordered a temporary halt on construction. The initial lawsuit argued that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, who provided the project permitting, did not fully consider climate change impacts when it approved the damโs expansion.
A month later, Arguello ruled that Denver Water could finish construction on raising the dam, but that the reservoir could not be filled until the Army Corps reissued the permits.
โIf you stop the construction of a dam when it is partially built, the dam doesnโt function as it was ultimately designed to function,โ said Denver Waterโs Brody. โThat was a big concern of ours and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.โ
The utility has also been ordered to not remove any additional trees surrounding the dam until the proper permits are obtained. The project proposes the removal of over 200,000 trees.
Arguelloโs opinion also called into question the underlying water rights Denver Water would rely on to fill the newly enlarged reservoir when construction finished. Gross Reservoir is filled with water from the headwaters of the Colorado River, which has experienced steep declines in water supply amid a long-term warming and drying trend in the Rocky Mountains.
โThe Environmental Impact Statement didnโt even look at the fact that the flows of the Colorado River are in decline. Most of the science suggests they will continue to decline further,โ said Doug Kenney, Western Water Policy Program director at the University of Colorado Boulderโs Natural Resources Law Center. Acquiring new permits will require Denver Water to redefine the projectโs purpose and evaluate the environmental damage, he said.
The case is more than a local water project. Diverting more water across the western slope of Colorado has created concerns for ecosystems throughout the overappropriated watershed and for communities downstream in California, Nevada and Arizona.
โIt makes it more difficult to ensure that thereโs sufficient flow downstream as a result,โ Kenney said. โWe have got to stop this practice of taking more and more water out of the upper reaches of the Colorado River because it just increases the stress on a river that is already under a tremendous amount of stress.โ
By calling into question the projectโs potential to have downstream impacts, the decision could add a new legal hurdle future water development infrastructure will have to clear.
โHistorically, agencies in recent decades have not done enough to consider climate change in decisions,โ Kenney said. Cases like this one need to happen in natural resource law more generally, he said, as they help establish precedents for future projects that could potentially put the environment at risk.
Denver Water is appealing the court decisions that bar the expansion. That could result in a reissue of the permits with a redefined purpose or a dismissal of the court rulings made earlier this year.
โWe think that the district court made some misjudgements or misinterpretations when it found the Army Corps committed these errors,โ Brody said.
Learning to live alongside it
Amid the stops and starts of Gross Reservoir construction, nearby residents are not ready to let go of what they used to have.
Kurtz and McDermott recall their old activities along the reservoirโs north shore. A handful of neighbors would walk their dogs everyday along the hiking trail that connected the reservoir to their neighborhood. The trail has since been widened significantly, to allow for excavating equipment. They would host Memorial Day parties along the waterโs edge.ย
Beverly Kurtz and Anna McDermott, longtime residents of the Lakeshore Park neighborhood pose in front of Gross Reservoir on June 19, 2025. They are members of TEG, an environmental group involved in a lawsuit against Denver Water. (Cassie Sherwood/The Water Desk)
Now they minimize their excursions to the shore as much as they can. At this point theyโre more than ready for construction to be completed, exhausted from the daily disruptions, explosions and drilling.
โNow clearly, when the work is done, the things which negatively impacted my life would go away. But I couldnโt last them out,โ Strauss said. He recently relocated to the Boulder area. โIt was just my bad luck that my golden years coincided with the worst effects of the project.โ
Some residents found that the expansion project has renewed their sense of community in Lakeshore Park.
โIn a weird way a lot of us have gotten even closer because we were in the battle together,โ Kurtz said. โWe feel like at this point we won the battle, but weโve lost the war.โ
โThey will get the permits to eventually fill this reservoir following the expansion,โ she said.
However, federal courts requiring the proper permits to continue construction is a win in her and TEGโs book, as it sets a precedent for any large construction processes that occur in the future. It will ensure that the proper environmental permits are obtained before construction can begin on a project.
โIf nothing else, we hope that precedent still stands. Because it will help somebody else,โ she said.
This story was produced by The Water Desk, an independent journalism initiative at the University of Colorado Boulderโs Center for Environmental Journalism.
Survey work begins in 2018 for the Navajo-Gallup Water Supply Project on the Navajo Nation. Photo credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation via The High Country News
Bidtah N. Becker, chief legal counsel for the Navajo Nation, told St. George News there is an urgency to secure the tribe’s legal rights to the Colorado River in Arizona, calling it their “No. 1 issue.” Becker explained that while the tribe secured water rights settlements in Utah in 2022 and in New Mexico in 2009, members still lack a legal water allocation in Arizona. A proposed bill in Congress, the Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement Act of 2025, seeks to address this gap. The billย involves partnerships with the Hopi Tribe, the San Juan Southern Paiute Tribe, the state of Arizona and more than 30 municipalities and communities in northern Arizona…The legislation has been delayed due to a lack of agreement from the seven Colorado River Basin states, which are focused on post-2026 guidelines for managing the river. Becker said the Navajo Nation remains hopeful that once those discussions advance, a settlement can gain momentum…
The Navajo Indian Irrigation Project, located in northwest New Mexico, draws its water from Navajo Lake on the San Juan River and moves it through more than 70 miles of main canals and 340 miles of laterals. Approved by Congress in 1962, the project transformed from a small-scale farming initiative into a major agricultural operation. The project holds rights to 508,000 acre-feet of San Juan River water annually, used to irrigate high desert lands south of Farmington, New Mexico…
Beyond agriculture, the Navajo Nation is working to secure municipal water supplies. Becker said one key project underway is the Navajo-Gallup Water Supply Project. A lateral portion of the project, running along U.S. Route 550, is already constructed; the second lateral section still requires funding to be completed.
A truck drives out to Ritschard Dam, which forms Wolford Mountain Reservoir, on July 13, 2016. A court sided with the River District in a dispute with Denver Water over repairs to the dam.
A judge has sided with a Western Slope water district in a dispute with Denver Water over a problem dam in Grand County.
In its 2021 complaint, Denver Water accused the Colorado River Water Conservation District of breach of contract by slow walking required repairs to Ritschard Dam until Denver Water became part owner of the dam in 2020, at which time the Front Range water provider would share financial responsibility for repairs.
But in a June 19 judgment, District Court Judge Mary C. Hoak found in favor of the River District, writing that the River District made thoughtful, prudent and reasonable decisions with respect to repairs to Ritschard Dam, and did not act dishonestly or outside of accepted practices.
โOur partner in that reservoir turned around and sued us, in my mind, because they wanted a different contract over how the dam is managed and they wanted to weasel out of their obligation to pay for the repair and rehabilitation, should it ever be required,โ said River District General Manager Andy Mueller at the River District boardโs regular meeting Tuesday. โThe judge saw through their smokescreen and really rewarded the district for doing the right thing.โ
The River District is now asking that Denver Water pay nearly $773,000 in costs associated with the lawsuit.
In an emailed statement, Denver Water spokesperson Todd Hartman said the water provider โcontinue(s) to assess the ruling and consider potential next steps.โ
Wolford Mountain Reservoir. An aerial view of Wolford Reservoir, formed by Ritschard Dam. An aerial view of Wolford Reservoir, formed by Ritschard Dam. The reservoir is managed by the River District and Denver Water owns 40% of the reservoir capacity.
The complaint stemmed from structural issues at Ritschard Dam, which forms Wolford Mountain Reservoir on the Muddy Creek upstream of the town of Kremmling. Built in 1995, the reservoir has a capacity of 66,000 acre-feet, and Denver Water releases water from it downstream to offset its upstream diversions at Dillon Reservoir and the Roberts Tunnel. Denver Water, which is Coloradoโs oldest and largest water provider serving about 1.5 million people, helped finance construction of the dam and reservoir, paying about $43 million.
The River District owns and operates the 122-foot-tall dam and reservoir, and according to agreements between the two entities, Denver Water would lease 40% of the reservoir capacity from when the reservoir was completed in 1995 until 2020. At the end of 2020, Denver Water would take 40% ownership of the reservoir capacity along with 40% ownership of the water right.
Denver Water would also become responsible for 45.33% of the costs of operation, maintenance and rehabilitation of the dam, which had been solely the River Districtโs financial responsibility up until that point.
Because of the disagreement, the two entities extended the lease agreement until summer 2021. At that point, according to Mueller, the River District conveyed a deed to Denver Water, which then became part owner, and the water provider has been paying for its share of the operation, maintenance and repair costs during the litigation.
Settling and cracking
In 2009, the River District became aware of settling and deformation of the dam, meaning the structure is moving more than expected, and has been intensely monitoring the situation since then. From 2012 to 2015, the River District began moving toward structural rehabilitation, but a 2015 expert review panel found there was not a need for immediate remediation.
In 2019 and 2020, cracks appeared in the dam, prompting further study and dam safety evaluations. From 2013 to 2022, the River District spent $3.7 million on dam-related maintenance and dam-deformation expenses.
Denver Water argued the River District led Denver Water to believe that the River District would make repairs to the dam, but then changed its mind just prior to the expiration of the lease agreement, after which Denver Water would be on the hook for its share of the cost of repairs. Denver Water argued that instead of repairing the dam as required, the River District hired new experts and reversed course.
Jim Lochhead, who was Denver Water CEO from 2010 to 2023, testified at a 12-day trial in May 2024 that Denver Water didnโt know until an August 2019 meeting that the River District wasnโt going to repair the dam. But the court disagreed, citing evidence Denver Water knew of the River Districtโs plans as of February 2017 at the latest.
โโฆthe Court does not find Mr. Lochheadโs testimony on this point credible,โ the judgment reads. โMr. Lochhead was the only witness that testified at trial regarding this meeting, there are no documents supporting the occurrence or substance of this meeting, and Denver Waterโs Complaint, Denver Waterโs Notice of Breach and discovery responses do not reference this meeting.โ
In addition to expert testimony and documents, the courtโs judgement relied on the annual inspection reports for Ritschard Dam from the Colorado Division of Water Resources State Engineerโs Office, which have rated the dam โconditionally satisfactoryโ since 2012 and never ordered a storage restriction.
โThe SEO annual inspection reports were uniformly positive as to the maintenance of the dam,โ the ruling reads.
โ(Denver Water) had an elaborate scheme cooked up in their heads that this board and staff management, as well as the past management, concocted some way to delay things and did it in bad faith,โ Mueller told the River District board. โThey told a story to the court that they completely failed to support with any facts at the court level, and we won on all claims.โ
Wolford Mountain Reservoir, on Muddy Creek in Grand County, is managed by the River District. Denver Water owns 40% of the reservoir capacity. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
The River District win comes at a pivotal time for Colorado water managers that underscores the simmering tension that remains between the West Slope and Front Range. Denver Water, along with other Front Range water providers, has been granted a special hearing in September to air their concerns about the River Districtโs plan to purchase water rights tied to the Shoshone hydropower plant in Glenwood Canyon.
Although this chapter of litigation is over โ Denver Water has a right to appeal โ the problems with the Ritschard Dam remain. The dam is classified as high hazard, which means dam failure is expected to result in loss of human life. The River District board allocated more money to address the structural issues at its regular meeting Wednesday, approving a $294,185 contract with HDR Engineering, Inc. for an alternatives analysis to evaluate potential modifications to the dam. The alternatives analysis was recommended in a 2024 Comprehensive Dam Safety Evaluation.
โWeโre not out of the woods on that dam, so we just have to continue to put public safety as the number one priority of the district, and use that as our guiding principle,โ Mueller said.
CPW sampling on the Colorado River found zebra mussel veligers. The river is now considered โpositiveโ for zebra mussels from its confluence with the Roaring Fork River to the Utah state line. CREDIT: PHOTO COURTESY OF COLORADO PARKS & WILDLIFE
State officials may have solved the puzzle of how zebra mussels got into the Colorado River.
On July 3, Colorado Parks and Wildlife officials discovered a large number of adult zebra mussels in a privately owned body of water in western Eagle County. On Monday, Madeline Baker, an invasive species specialist with CPW, told members of the Colorado Basin Roundtable they believe this private lake is an upstream source of the mussels that have contaminated the Colorado River, the Government Highline Canal, Highline Lake and Mack Mesa Lake.
โWe do believe this to be the primary source, but it could now have created other secondary sources downstream with locations that hold water,โ Baker said. โThere is a lot of speculation of could these veligers survive the journey from Eagle County down to Highline and create a new population there or is there some sort of intermediate population in between. So we still have a lot to figure out.โ
Baker said that the lakeโs owner is collaborating with CPW on a mitigation plan. CPW is not releasing the ownerโs name or specific location of the lake.
โThe property owner is unsure of how this could have happened, but is being cooperative,โ she said.
Baker said there were quite a few dead shells on the shoreline of the private lake, which indicates the zebra mussel population has been there for several years. She said CPW staff found the lake by searching Google maps for bodies of water on private property near the Colorado River and then calling property owners and asking if they could inspect their lakes. An outlet from the lake was bringing zebra-mussel-infested water into the Colorado River, an issue that has since been fixed.
โWeโve done a dye test at the reservoir to be sure that nothing more is flowing into the river, and that dye test showed us that it should be contained at this point, which will allow us to pave a path toward mitigation,โ Baker said.
Zebra mussels are a prolific invasive species that if left unchecked could clog irrigation infrastructure, and strip the plankton and nutrients from the water. Once established, they are nearly impossible to eradicate.
For the last two summers, microscopic zebra mussel larvae, known as veligers, have been found in the Colorado River at several locations. In June, they were found at the boat launch in New Castle, in Highline Lake and Mack Mesa Lake. The Colorado River is now considered โpositiveโ for zebra mussels from the confluence with the Roaring Fork River to the Colorado-Utah border.
CPW staff inspects a boat motor at Highline Lake in 2023. The lake is infested with zebra mussels. CREDIT: PHOTO COURTESY OF COLORADO PARKS & WILDLIFE
Threat to the Grand Valley
The arrival of zebra mussels has been especially alarming for the Grand Valley, which is one of the most important agricultural areas and home to the biggest agricultural water users of Colorado River water on the Western Slope.
โAt least from a Grand Valley perspective, we feel like we are under a very serious threat,โ said Kirsten Kurath, a Grand Valley attorney and vice-chair of the roundtable.
Adult mussels were found in 2022 in Highline Lake near the Utah state line. Officials treated it with a form of copper that kills zebra mussels called EarthTec QZ and drained it for the 2024 boating season. The lake reopened for recreation this year but on June 10, CPW staff found more veligers in Highline Lake, which is now designated an infested body of water. Highline Lake is filled with water from the Government Highline Canal, which pulls water from the Colorado River.
โWe now know that Highline Lake was continuously being reinfested with mussels after the treatment, so itโs difficult to ascertain the effectiveness of the treatment,โ Baker said.
Veligers were also found last year in the Government Highline Canal, which brings water from the Colorado River to Grand Valley farms, vineyards and orchards. Realizing the mussels could be disastrous for commercial peach growers who use micro-drip irrigation, water managers sprang into action last fall, treating their systems with a copper solution that kills the mussels.
An adult zebra mussel found at Highline Lake in 2023. The lake was treated with a copper solution and drained for the 2024 boating season in an effort to eradicate the invasive species. CREDIT: PHOTO COURTESY OF COLORADO PARKS & WILDLIFE
Grand Valley Water Users Association General Manager Tina Bergonzini said the copper treatment was successful โ the irrigation company has not seen any signs of adult mussels in their system โ and the Government Highline Canal has not had any more positive tests for veligers. Still, Bergonzini said GVWUA will probably do the copper treatment again this fall, and that preventing zebra mussels from becoming established is something they will be working on for the foreseeable future.
โI donโt think there is any way around [doing the copper treatment again],โ Bergonzini said. โWe canโt risk our infrastructure. Itโs a financial hurdle for the irrigation companies because itโs very costly, but not as costly as having fouled infrastructure.โ
The discovery of the source pond in Eagle County is a step in the right direction, but it doesnโt mean the fight against zebra mussels is over. CPW will continue sampling and mitigation work, Baker said.
โFinding the source was always the main focus,โ Bergonzini said. โThereโs no way you can win the war if you canโt figure out where they are coming from. So I think discovering that pond was huge. That gives us a really good chance.โ
CPW says cleaning, draining and drying fishing gear, motorized boats and hand-launched vessels like paddle boards is key to preventing the spread of invasive species.
n July, the Parachute Town Council adopted a Water Restriction and Conservation Program to help the town respond quickly and responsibly to changing water conditions.ย
The new program allows the town to implement or lift water use restrictions as needed throughout the year, based on water availability, drought conditions and regional coordination.
On July 15, it was announced that Parachute remains at a Stage 1 Water Watch due to low flows on the Parachute Creek. It has remained at Stage 1 partially due to ongoing coordination with other users of Parachute Creek and the communityโs ongoing conservation efforts.
Stage 1 is a voluntary stage that applies to raw water irrigation users only. Parachute has not implemented any mandatory restrictions at this time and potable drinking water customers are not affected.
Parachute is encouraging all irrigation water users to take simple voluntary actions to help conserve water, such as:
Reducing outdoor watering to three to five days a week
Watering in the early morning or late evening to reduce evaporation
Focusing water use on trees, vegetables and essential landscaping only
Avoiding overwatering lawns or irrigating during rainfall
Voluntary conservation is key, as cutting back now could help the community avoid stricter, mandatory restrictions later this summer.
If conditions change, additional stages of the program may be implemented. Higher stages could make the current voluntary measures enforceable or even lead to a ban on all outdoor irrigation, though that has not yet been necessary in Parachute.
Future restrictions will be announced publicly and community members can stay up to date by following the town of Parachuteโs social media accounts, like their Facebook at facebook.com/townofparachute/, downloading the โTown of Parachuteโ mobile app or visiting the townโs utilities page at parachute.gov/o/top/page/utilities.
For more questions on the program or water usage, contact Parachute Town Hall at 907-285-7630.
Colorado River May 2023 swelled from low elevation snow runoff.
Click the link to read the article on the KJCT website. Here’s an excerpt:
July 28, 2025
On Monday, the Colorado Basin Roundtable had a meeting to discuss the state of the Colorado River. The Roundtable discussed the potential Shoshone stream flow acquisition. The area of interest is the 2.4 miles in Glenwood Canyon. It is important for Western Colorado because of its stream flow rate that mimics the current water rates used for hydropower. Wildlife organizations did habitat studies on it, and they show it improves the natural environment.
Another topic of discussion was the basin hydrology. With a limited snowpack this year, there is less water. The biggest concerns people had in the meeting related to that was the stress of many systems struggling from prolonged drought and aging infrastructure. Lindsay DeFrates, Deputy Director of Communications for the Colorado River District, said, โThe Colorado Basin Roundtable is a great example of a room where a bunch of different stakeholders from agriculture, recreation, environment, municipal, industrial, water users all come together to talk about those solutions. Itโs never an easy conversation. And we canโt forget about zebra mussels. Zebra mussel veligers were found at the Silt Boat Ramp and near New Castle.
We left the Colorado River a couple months ago to explore the Trumpstersโ effort to use the public lands in the river basin to โunleash American energyโ and return us to the glorious age of cheap petroleum โ and why itโs not happening. At that time, the seven states in the riverโs basin were in a stalemate over a management plan to replace the cobbled together โinterimโ management guidelines that expire next year. The Trumpstersโ have not interceded noticeably in this situation, since it appears to require complex and sustained thought.
Unfortunately, the stalemate is still the basic situation. As a couple water mavens put it, weโre all still waiting for the black smoke coming out of the chimney to turn white. The Basinโs state representatives are meeting together regularly though, with input from the First People, and reports from the meetings suggest that the participants have all agreed to โwork with the river we have, not the river we wish we (still) hadโ (if we ever actually did have it) โ the Colorado River Compactโs river. So a little review here today, to remind us where this puts usโฆ.
Members of the Colorado River Commission, in Santa Fe in 1922, after signing the Colorado River Compact. From left, W. S. Norviel (Arizona), Delph E. Carpenter (Colorado), Herbert Hoover (Secretary of Commerce and Chairman of Commission), R. E. Caldwell (Utah), Clarence C. Stetson (Executive Secretary of Commission), Stephen B. Davis, Jr. (New Mexico), Frank C. Emerson (Wyoming), W. F. McClure (California), and James G. Scrugham (Nevada)
CREDIT: COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY WATER RESOURCES ARCHIVE via Aspen Journalism
The Colorado River Compact was created in 1922 for a river that had been, for a couple decades, running flows guesstimated to average 18 million acre-feet (maf) annually. The compact commissioners thought they were being conservative in only dividing 15 maf among themselves, and assumed that โthose men who may come after us, possessed of a far greater fund of informationโ would be dividing up even more water after resolving a share for Mexico and resolution of the Indian rights.
The river then played desert trickster and stopped running those big flows, shortly after Congress passed the Boulder Canyon Act to reconstruct the Colorado River through the subtropical deserts below the canyons. By the end of the 1930s drought that followed, the statesโ water leaders knew the numbers in the Compact division might have been for a river that no longer existed, if it ever really had. But they persisted with the Compact, in the spirit of the unnamed quasi-mythical G.W. Bush administration official: โWe are an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality.โ The next half century was invested in creating our own imperial reality for the Colorado River โ until we began to run into more โnaturalโ realities than weโd anticipatedโฆ.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
The unimperial reality today is a river whose annual flow since the turn of the century has dropped to an average around 12.5 million acre-feet (maf), two-thirds the size of the Compactโs river. That is โthe river we haveโ โ and we are aware of the extent to which our superimposed imperial reality on the Colorado River region (and on the whole planet) has caused a lot of this unanticipated loss of water.
Exactly what it means when the basin-wide negotiators say they are working with that โriver we haveโ has not been revealed. One bad sign, however, viewing it from โoutside the box,โ is their persistence in thinking of the river as divided into a four-state Upper Basin and a three-state Lower Basin, a construct destined by a competitive appropriation culture to devolve into chronic conflict โ which it has.
Much of the conflict has revolved around the foggily written Article III(d) of the Compact, stating that the Upper Basin โwill not cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre-feet for any period of ten consecutive years.โ This could be most rationally interpreted as a warning to the Upper Basin to just be careful to not develop to the point of using more than their 7.5 maf/year (which the four states have not even come close to doing) and cutting into the Lower Basinโs 7.5 maf in dry periods. Or it could be irrationally interpreted as a delivery obligation that the Upper Basin had to deliver regardless of the natural state of the river, even if an extended drought forced the upper states to short themselves in order to deliver the required 7.5 maf.
Looking upstream at the Boulder Dam (now called Hoover Dam) under construction. “Boulder Dam, looking upstream August 31, 1933 2345” is written at the bottom of the photo. Via UNLV
Given a history of tension among the states based on how fast California was growing, the obvious choice between those interpretations was to believe the worst. Their intent in convening the compact commission had been to prevent a โseven-state horse raceโ to appropriate water for their futures; they wanted a seven-state division of the use of the riverโs water that wouldย override interstate appropriative competition. But they didnโt know enough about either the river or their own fantasy-infused futures to do that desired division. The two-basin division has come to be regarded as a stroke of genius, good for all time, when in fact it was just an expedient measure โ one wouldnโt be wrong to call it a โdesperate measureโ โ to cobble together something that would persuade Congress that the states were enough on the same page so Congress could put up the money for a big control structure (Hoover Dam).
But in their haste in pasting together the two-basin compact, they appeared, through Article III(d), to make one basin โjuniorโ to the other, subject to a โcompact callโ in an extended droughtย ย โ or at least that is how everyone chose to interpret it. The 2007 โInterim Guidelinesโ began to address that (perceived) inequity by imposing cuts on the Lower Basin states when Mead and Powell Reservoirs dropped to dangerous levels, but on not the Upper Basin (leaving their shortages up to the erratic river). But interstate โseniorityโ played a big role in the size of cuts for each Lower Basin state, belying the notion that the Compact would protect states from interstate appropriative competition.
So what could todayโs negotiators be doing instead? There is actually a constructive and useful way to divide a desert river into two โbasins,โ based on the nature of the desert river. All rivers are surface water that is leaving โ maybe reluctantly โ the land it flows through; it is leaving the land because the land and its life were not able to put the water to use in support of life or to hold it as groundwater in an aquifer. Even much of the groundwater that doesnโt get used by the plants does not escape leaving the land with the river; isotopic analysis indicates that over the course of a year more than half of all the water in surface streams is groundwater trickling back in.
Ephemeral streams are streams that do not always flow. They are above the groundwater reservoir and appear after precipitation in the area. Via Socratic.org
This is not to say that a river is nothing but a drainage ditch โ an earlier Army Corps of Engineers perspective that messed up a lot of rivers, trying to make the drainage more efficient by straightening channels. All rivers have a much more complex relationship with the land they are flowing through than just โdrainage.โ Most rivers have their origins in highlands โ mountains or other significant uplands โ where steep slopes or fast snowmelts produce too much water to sink into whatever soil there might be; this generates surface flows that become small streams confluing to form larger streams and rivers. Throughย hyporheic exchange,ย surface streams either gain groundwater from the land they flow through when that land has a higher water table than the stream level (aย gaining stream), or they lose water to the riparian areas along the river when the water table there is lower than the stream level (aย losing streamย โ although, since the water it loses nurtures life in the riparian area, I think hydrologists should consider calling it a โgivingย streamโ).
For rivers in humid regions, there is adequate precipitation throughout the riverโs basin so the rivers will usually gain more from the land they pass through than they will lose (or โgiveโ); they are gaining streams that grow from both surface and ground water until they discharge it all into the seas. But a desert river like the Colorado, on the other hand, is a dependable gaining stream only in its highland headwaters, where the Colorado River accumulates 85-90 percent of its entire water supply from the Southern Rockies, Wind River and Wasatch Mountains above ~8,000 feet elevation. This water-producing region is less than 15 percent of the whole basin. (That โdivision contourโ is more accurately an โecotone,โ a blurry edge zone, in the 7,500-8,500 feet range.)
Below the ~8,000 foot elevation, the riverโs tributaries flow first into the high orographic โcold desertsโ (steppes) of western Colorado, southwestern Wyoming and eastern Utah. Most of its tributaries have been โstepping downโ through the mountain region in a series of canyons alternating with floodplains, all of it the waterโs work โ and all of it the beautiful erosion and deposition that draws and holds us here. As they drop into the high desert, they get into a serious canyon-cutting project through the Colorado Plateau, up to a mile deep โ a mystery story in itself thatย Iโve written about before. After more than five hundred miles of canyons winding through the Plateau, the river flows out into the subtropical Mojave and Sonora โhot deserts,โ and thence โ only occasionally now โ emptying whatโs left into the Gulf of California.
Super Bloom along UT-128 during the last road trip with Mrs. Gulch May 2023.
But once they drop out of its headwaters highlands, desert streams and rivers like the Colorado and its tributaries become losing (giving) streams; they get little new precipitation below the ~8,000 foot contour. The occasional exception is the desert cloudburst that manages to penetrate the desertโs heat shield, dumping a huge rain that mostly runs off the desert land in a quick, destructive flood, filling dry arroyos and stream beds for a few dangerous hours. Or a rare winter snowfall that melts and sinks in, activating flora and small fauna that have lain inactive for long periods, instigating pilgrimages from hundreds of miles away just to see the desert in bloom.
The โnaturalโ Colorado River (the river before the 20thย century CE) became a โbig riverโ for two or three months a year, in the May-July period when its mountain snowpack released the majority of the riverโs water into its tributaries and ground storage. But once the snowpack was gone, the natural river became an increasingly modest flow, fed largely by groundwater, and as it wandered through the desert regions, it gave what water it had to riparian life (a process that intensified as humans began โbroadeningโ its riparian areas through irrigation systems), or into desert aquifers โ and a lot of it just evaporated or transpired back into the atmosphere (losses that increased as humans spread more of it out in reservoirs and fields).
There were probably years (like our current water year) in which the last of the natural riverโs water never made it through its lush delta to the sea in the autumn. It is not unusual for a desert stream to completely disappear in its desert; some 40 surface streams and rivers flow into the Great Basin, and most of them just disappear after spreading their limited beneficence en route.
The natural and logical โtwo-basinโ division for a desert river like the Colorado, then, would be into a โwater production regionโ and a โwater consumption region.โ With the exception of mountain mining or resort towns, and the mountain flora and fauna, nearly all the users of Colorado River water live below that ~8,000 foot division. They are all in the same boat, trying to figure out how best to share a โlosing riverโ when its flows drop into the desert regions where they live.
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
The Colorado River Compact ignores this natural division of the river. The clumsy division into the four-state Upper Basin and three-state Lower Basin is done according to state boundaries, which have no geographic or hydrographic relevance to the Colorado River Basin.ย ย The state boundaries also include a lot of heavily developed landย outsideย the natural river basin that can lay claim to Colorado River water as part of the state โ and they have population and wealth concentrations that enable them to move that water out of the basin through tunnels. โWe are an empire, and when we actโย et cetera et cetera.
The Compact division is especially problematic for the Upper Basin. A quarter to a third of the Upper Basin area is the riverโs major waterย productionย area, scattered among the mountains of the four states above the ~8,000-foot contour, and the rest of the Compactโs Upper Basin is part of the riverโs waterย consumptionย region. The Compact makes no such distinction, and all the water above the Upper-Lower division point near Leeโs Ferry is presumed to be the Upper Basinโs โ minus the annual โdelivery obligationsโ of 7.5 maf for the Lower Basin and half of the 1.5 maf for Mexico. Given that the riverโs annual flows vary between 5 and 20 maf, this makes the Upper Basinโs Compact allotment of 7.5 maf annually a fantasy.
Acknowledging the desert nature of the Colorado River suggests a rather radical, but common sense two-basin management strategy for the Colorado River, addressing two main challenges: first, to work out an equitable division among all users for the use of the water that flows into the โwater consumption regionโ; and second, for all water consumption region users to collaborate on optimizing (not โmaximizingโ) the flow out of the โwater production regionโ and into the deserts.
And a third challenge (which should be first) would be to transcend (abandon) the Compactโs two-basin division, the artificiality of which just gets in the way of desert-river reality at best, and at worst fosters a competitive rather than collaborative attitude between the two basins.
And thatโs enough for today. We will look more closely at those challenges next time โ unless the negotiators have come up with a brilliant breakthrough to parse out. Donโt hold your breathโฆ.
Colorado River “Beginnings”. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism
A satellite view of Mesa, Arizona, showing a handful of the 91 energy- and water-intensive data centers in the greater Phoenix metro area. Source: Google Earth.
When I first read a recent headline in Matthew Yglesiasโs Slow Boringnewsletter, I assumed it was a sort of joke to rope me into reading. โThereโs plenty of water for data centers,โ it said, reassuringly. โProbably the last worry you should have about either water or AI.โ
Unfortunately, he wasnโt joking. But he opened his piece with a line that should have warned his readers to take everything else he said with a grain of salt:
Before I continue with my rant, Iโd just like to encourage Yglesias to do a little more thinking about water scarcity before writing about it. Oh, and also, maybe consider spending a little bit of time in the water-starved West before committing punditry about it. (This is the same guy who tweeted that Sen. Mike Leeโs proposal to sell off public land was โpretty reasonableโ and an โokay idea on the meritsโ).
Yglesias acknowledges that data centers use water, and that more data centers will lead to more water consumption. But itโs okay, he says, because โWeโre not living on Arrakis, and rich countries are not, in general, abstemious in their water usage.โ
No, we are not on Arrakis, but have you seen the lower reaches of the Colorado River or even the mid-reaches of the Rio Grande lately? Itโs looking pretty Dune-like if you ask me.
Well, sure, Yglesias argues, but even in those places, people are doing frivolous things with water, like filling up their Super Soakers or using it to make ice cubes for their cocktails. Yes, he used those actual examples. Never mind that the potable water used each day by a single Microsoft data center in Goodyear, Arizona, could yield more than 35 million ice cubes or fill about 223,000 Super Soakers. That would be one big, drunken water fight.
Yglesias also notes that agriculture, especially growing alfalfa and other feed crops for cattle, is an even larger water consumer than Big Tech. True, for now. And he writes:
His logic appears to be: People are currently using a lot of water for all sorts of things โ frivolous or otherwise. So, it should be fine to use a lot more water for data centers in perpetuity, since water is โsufficiently plentiful.โ This is the sort of thinking that got the Colorado River Basin into its current mess, in which there actually may not be enough water to drink very soon if its collective users donโt change their ways. Adding a fleet of water-guzzling hyperscale data centers to places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, andย Tucson, where water is anything but โsufficiently plentiful,โ will only exacerbate the crisis.
Researchers have tried various methods to determineย how much water a single ChatGPT query or AI-assisted Google search usesย as compared to, say, streaming a Netflix video or writing a standard e-mail.ย So far the estimates diverge wildly. An early calculation came up with a whopping 500 ml for each AI query, but the estimates have since gone down. The difficulty is due in part to the fact that water use data isnโt always publicly available, and also because data centersโ water use can vary depending on location, as do theirย carbon footprints.
What is clear is this: Data centers use large quantities of both energy and water, no matter where they are. The massive server banks churning away in warehouse-like buildings on the fringes of Phoenix and Las Vegas, and even in rural Washington and Wyoming, each gobble as much electricity as a small city to process AI queries, cryptocurrency extraction, and other aspects of our increasingly cloud-based society. The harder they work, the hotter they get, and the more power and water they need to cool off to the optimum operating temperature of between 70ยฐ to 80ยฐ F.
Evaporative or adiabatic cooling, where air is cooled by blowing it through moistened pads (i.e. high-tech swamp coolers), works well in arid areas like Phoenix, Tucson, or Las Vegas. They use less energy than refrigerated cooling, but also use far more water.
Data centers can also indirectly consume water through their energy use, depending on the power source. Thermal coal, nuclear, or natural gas plants need water for cooling and steam-production (some of this water may be returned to the source after use, except with zero-discharge facilities); natural gas extraction uses water for hydraulic fracturing; and solar installations can require large amounts of water for dust-suppression and cleaning. This explains how Googleโs data centers withdrew 8.65 billion gallons of water globally in 2023 1.
A 2023 study found that a single Chat GPT-3 request processed at an Arizona data center uses about 30 milliliters of water, compared to 12 ml per request in Wyoming. That doesnโt seem like much (itโs less than a shot-glass) until you consider that there are at least 1 billion ChatGPT queries worldwide per day and growing, using a total of some 8 million gallons of water daily, worldwide. And, training the AI at an Arizona data center would use about 9.6 million liters โ or 2.5 million gallons โ of additional water.
Another estimate finds the average data center uses between 1 million and 5 million gallons of water per day, onsite, which would be far more than the aforementioned Goodyear center (56 million gallons/year), but in line with a planned Google data center in Mesa, Arizona. When Google was first planning the facility back in 2019, the city of Mesa guaranteed delivery of nearly 1 million gallons of water per day. If they reach certain milestones they can use up to 4 million gallons daily, or about 4,480 acre-feet per year.
Now multiply those numbers by the more than 90 data centers of various sizes and water and energy intensity in the Phoenix area, alone, which would amount to somewhere between 14 million to 450 million gallons per day. No matter how you add it up, they collectively are sucking up a huge amount of water and power, and enough to strain even Yglesiasโs purported โsufficiently plentifulโ supplies (which do not exist in Arizona, by the way).
The average Phoenix-area household uses about 338 gallons of water per day, or almost 123,000 gallons per year. One of these big data centers, then, could guzzle as much water as some 10,000 homes. And yet housing developments in groundwater-dependent areas on Phoenixโs fringe must obtain 100-year assured water supply certification before they can begin building. The same is not the case for data centers.
According to Open ET maps, a 75-acre alfalfa field in Buckeye (western Phoenix metro area), uses about 156 acre-feet โ or 50.8 million gallons โ per year. Thatโs far less than the 28-acre Apple Data Center in Mesa consumes. Of course, there are the equivalent of about 3,470 alfalfa fields of that same size in Arizona (260,000 acres), meaning the total water consumption of hay and alfalfa is still greater than that of data centers. But it shows that while replacing an alfalfa field with houses would result in a net decrease in water consumption, replacing those same fields with data centers would substantially increase consumption.
And donโt forget that the 75-acre alfalfa field produces about 690 tons of alfalfa per year, which could feed quite a few dairy cows, which in turn would produce a bunch of milk for making cheese and ice cream. Just saying. Maybe itโs time to update the old saying: โIโd rather see a cow than a data center.โ
Data centers arenโt going away. After all, they are the hearts and brains of the Internet Age. Many of us may wish that AI (not to mention cryptocurrency), which are more water- and energy-intensive than other applications, would just up and vanish. But thatโs probably too much to ask for. Besides, AI, at least, does have real value.
So what can be done to keep the data center boom from devouring the Westโs water and driving its power grid to the snapping point? Hereโs where Yglesias had a good point: Policymakers and utilities should adjust water and power pricing for large industrial users, i.e. data centers, to discourage waste, incentivize efficiency and recycling, and push tech firms to develop their own clean energy sources to power their facilities.
Itโs imperative that utilities force data centers to pay their fair share for infrastructure upgrades made necessary by added water or power demand, rather than shifting those costs to other ratepayers, as is usually the case. Arizona should make data centers prove out their water supply, just like they do with housing developments. Plus, states should stop trying to lure data centers with big tax breaks, which ultimately are paid for by the other taxpayers. And local governments and planners should subject proposed data centers to the highest level of scrutiny, and not give in to promises of jobs and economic development if it means sacrificing the communityโs water supply or the reliability of the power grid.
Proper policy isnโt a cure all, by any means. But it could mitigate the impacts of the imminent data center boom. Meanwhile, Mr. Yglesias, I will reiterate that the West, at least, does not have plenty of water for data centers, and I will continue to worry about them guzzling up what little water remains.
๐ Reading Room ๐ง
The Land Desk is reading all of yโallโs great responses to last weekโs open thread about forms of resistance. Check it out and weigh in if you havenโt already.
Len Necefer has had some really strong pieces on hisย All At Once by Dr. Lennewsletter recently, includingย this oneย musing about the opportunities for the Navajo Nation to build a recreation economy on the San Juan River (great idea!). He writes about how strange it is that he, a Navajo Nation citizen, must get a permit from the BLM to raft the river, when it borders his homeland (and is at the heart of Dinรฉ Bikeyah). I also like that he sees boating/recreational opportunities along the entirety of the river, not just from Sand Island to Clay Hills Crossing. Iโve always thought it would be super cool to boat the reaches between Farmington and Bluff (actually, Iโve always wanted to boat from Durango to Farmington to Bluff).ย
Another Substack thatโs been getting my attention isย Time Zero, a podcast and Substack on โthe nuclearized world.โ Theย Wastelandingย series is about the legacy of uranium mining and milling on the Colorado Plateau, the Navajo Nation, and on Pueblo lands. Very powerful stuff.ย
Theย Colorado Sunโs Shannon Mullane has aย good storyย about the Southern Ute Tribe finally getting some of its Animas-La Plata water, which was the whole reason the last big Western water project, as itโs known, was finally built.
1 This is not the same as consumption, which is the amount of water withdrawn minus the amount returned to the source.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
On July 22, after months of uncertainty about the impact of federal funding cuts and tariffs, Gunnison City Council received an update on the future of the water treatment plan project. Gunnison Public Works Director Pete Rice addressed the council with a report on funding, design and construction of the proposed plant on the Van Tuyl Ranch. The water treatment plant, estimated to cost $50 million and be one of the largest infrastructure developments in city history, is divided into three projects. The first project covers the construction of a raw water intake and three separate wells at the VanTuyl Ranch. The second and third projects focus on the water delivery system and water treatment facility. With the first project nearing approval from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the city is expected to finalize its design this fall and begin construction before the end of 2025. The treatment plant initiative stems from the 2021 water master plan and a potable water evaluation. Gunnison currently relies on nine wells to source its drinking water. The system is outdated and no longer permitted by the state. Because all of the wells pull water from the same aquifer, drinking water is vulnerable to contamination and extended drought conditions. The proposed plant will allow Gunnison to pull water from the Gunnison River, in addition to the aquifer…
The first project includes the construction of a raw water intake and three separate wells. The proposed intake will be 18-feet deep alongside the Gunnison River, and cylindrical intakes will extend halfway into the river. The first project is expected to be approved by the EPA in the next four weeks, and begin construction this year with well drilling extending into 2026. The project is projected to cost $4 million, with $900,000 covering design, and $3 million going toward construction. The entire construction cost is funded by $1.75 million in congressionally directed spending, and $1.5 million from a Colorado Water Conservation Board grant. Four additional grants covered roughly $850,000 in design costs. The City of Gunnison will pay the remaining $25,000. Once complete, the water intake will have little impact on outdoor recreation, including boating and fishing, Rice said. However, construction will likely disrupt those activities for an estimated two to three months. It is currently unknown if construction can take place in the winter to minimize impact on summer recreation. Project two focuses on a complex network of pipes that will connect the raw water intake and wells, and deliver water directly to the water treatment plan. The third project is the construction of the water treatment plant itself. Rice said the second and third project design is estimated to be completed between winter 2025 and spring 2026, with construction lasting into 2029. The two projects will cost $2.7 million for design, and $40 million for construction. The majority of design costs are already funded by six grants, while the construction costs are set to be discussed at upcoming council meetings.
The Shoshone hydro plant in Glenwood Canyon. The Shoshone hydropower plant in Glenwood Canyon. The CWCB will hold a hearing on the water rights associated with the plant in September. Credit: Heather Sackett/Aspen Journalism
Front Range asked for Colorado Water Conservation Board neutrality on historic use of Shoshone water rights
In an effort to head off concerns about the stateโs role in a major Western Slope water deal, a Western Slope water district has offered up a compromise proposal to Front Range water providers.
In order to defuse what Colorado River Water Conservation District General Manager Andy Mueller called โan ugly contested hearing before the CWCB,โ the River District is proposing that the state water board take a neutral position on the exact amount of water tied to the Shoshone hydropower plant water rights and let a water court determine a final number.
โAlthough we believe this would be an unusual process, the River District believes it would address the primary concern (i.e., avoiding the state agencyโs formal endorsement of the River Districtโs preliminary historical use analysis) that we heard expressed by your representatives at the May 21, 2025 CWCB meeting regarding the Shoshone instream flow proposal,โ Mueller wrote in an email to officials from the Front Range Water Council.
The River District worked with CWCB staff to draft the proposal, but it may not go far enough to address Front Range concerns.
The River District, which represents 15 counties on the Western Slope, is planning to purchase some of the oldest and largest non-consumptive water rights on the Colorado River from Xcel Energy for nearly $100 million. The water rights, which are tied to the Shoshone hydropower plant in Glenwood Canyon, are essential for downstream ecosystems, cities, endangered fish, and agricultural and recreational water users. As part of the deal, the River District is seeking to add an instream flow water right to benefit the environment to the hydropower water rights.
The effort has seen broad support across the Western Slope. The River District has raised $57 million toward the purchase from at least 26 local and regional partners. The project was awarded a $40 million Inflation Reduction Act grant in the waning days of the Biden administration, but those funds have been frozen by the Trump administration.
โThese water rights are foundational to the Colorado River,โ said Amy Moyer, chief of strategy at the River District. โItโs the number one project for the Western Slope. Itโs the top priority to move forward.โ
Critically, because its water rights are senior to many other water users โ they date to 1902 โ Shoshone can force upstream water users to cut back. The Shoshone call has the ability to command the flows of the Colorado River and its tributaries upstream all the way to the headwaters.
The twin turbines of Xcel Energyโs Shoshone hydroelectric power plant in Glenwood Canyon can generate 15 megawatts. The River District is proposing that the CWCB remain neutral on the issue of the plantโs historic water use. Credit: Heather Sackett/Aspen Journalism
Putting a precise amount on how much water the plant has historically used is a main point of contention between the River District and the Front Range Water Council, a group that includes some of Coloradoโs biggest municipal water providers: Denver Water, Colorado Springs Utilities, Aurora Water and Northern Water. These entities take water that would normally flow west, and bring it to farms and cities on the east side of the Continental Divide through what are called transmountain diversions. About 500,000 acre-feet of water annually is taken from the headwaters of the Colorado River and its tributaries to the Front Range.
Estimates by the River District put the Shoshone hydro plantโs average annual use at 844,644 acre-feet using the period between 1975 and 2003 โ before natural hazards in the narrow canyon began knocking the plant offline regularly in recent years.
But Front Range Water Council members say this estimate is flawed and could be an expansion of the historical use of the water right. They have requested a hearing at the September CWCB meeting to hash out their concerns.
โThe preliminary analysis that has been presented appears to expand historic use and creates potential injury,โ Abby Ortega, general manager of infrastructure and resource planning at Colorado Springs Utilities told the CWCB at its May meeting.
Determining past use of the Shoshone water rights is important because it will help set a limit for future use. While changing the use of a water right is allowed by going through the water court process, enlarging it is not. The amount pulled from and returned to the river must stay the same as it historically has been.
As part of the River Districtโs deal to buy the water rights, the CWCB โ which is the only entity in the state allowed to hold an instream flow water right โ must officially accept the water right and then sign on as a co-applicant in the water court change case.
But Front Range water providers said that doing so would amount to an endorsement of the River Districtโs historical use estimate, which would mean taking a side in the Front Range versus Western Slope disagreement.
โIf you agree to accept the right and as I understand it, the instream flow agreement, youโre agreeing to be a co-applicant, which risks you accepting their analysis,โ said Alexandra Davis, an assistant general manager with Aurora Water, at the CWCBโs May meeting.
Some members of the Front Range Water Council have asked that the CWCB remain neutral during the water court change case. In May 9 and June 9 letters to the CWCB from Marshall Brown, general manager of Aurora Water, he said the CWCB shouldrefrain from endorsing any specific methodology or volume of water.
โโฆ [T]he CWCB should remain neutral in the water court proceedings and defer to the courtโs determination of the appropriate methodology and volumetric quantification,โ the May 9 letter reads.
The River Districtโs offer does just that: It proposes that the CWCB should not take a position regarding the determination of historical use of the Shoshone water rights.
โWe heard the issues that are most front and center from these entities,โ Moyer said. โAnd so we are trying to find a path forward that works for everyone.โ
But even if Front Range Water Council members are in favor of the proposal, it is unlikely to result in a cancellation of the hearing. CWCB Executive Director Lauren Ris said in an email that under the boardโs rules, they are required to hold a hearing. And Jeff Stahla, public information officer at Northern Water, said they will still be asking for the hearing to proceed.
Spokespeople from Colorado Springs Utilities, Aurora Water and Denver Water all declined to comment on the River Districtโs proposal because it was marked as confidential.
Some members of the Front Range Water Council have concerns beyond CWCB neutrality that could be addressed at the September hearing.
In a May 14 letter to the CWCB, Denver Waterโs CEO Alan Salazar said the water provider also wants to carry over some provisions from existing agreements like the Shoshone Outage Protocol. This agreement has an exception in cases of extreme drought that allows Denver Water to keep taking water if its reservoirs fall below certain levels and streamflows are low. Denver Water added that by omitting the last two decades of Shoshone water use, the River Districtโs study period is skewed, and that using an upstream stream gauge to measure historical use is improper.
The hearing is scheduled for the next CWCB board meeting Sept. 16-18. The board can approve or disapprove the acquisition of the water rights, or make changes to the proposal and adopt the amended proposal. The board is required to take action at the September hearing unless the River District approves an extension. Pre-hearing statements are due by Aug. 4.
CWCB board members Brad Wind, who is general manager of Northern Water, and Greg Johnson, manager of resource planning at Denver Water, recused themselves from the July 17 CWCB board meeting discussion of the Shoshone water rights and plan to recuse themselves from future Shoshone discussions and decisions.ย
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
Amidst the roar of rapids and the serenity of the Grand Canyon, “About Damn Time” by filmmaker Dana Romanoff, chronicles the journey of trailblazing boatwomen who, guided by legacy and determination, challenge a male-dominated world, protect sacred rivers, and pass the oars to the next generation. Doriesโdelicate, hand-crafted wooden boatsโare known as the ballerinas of the river. They first danced on the Colorado River in the 1970s, introduced by environmentalist Martin Litton to immerse people in the Grand Canyonโs majesty and rally support against damming and destruction. Today, as the fight over Colorado River rights intensifies, river guides carry on this legacy, advocating for the protection of the Grand Canyon, the Colorado River, and its sacred places. Powerful, poetic, and action-packed, About Damn Time takes viewers on an exhilarating journey through churning rapids and serene starry nights. Along the way, it delves into the rich history and inspiring presence of boatwomen who are reshaping the river-running world for generations to come. A Stept Studios, Vault Rentals & Lockt Film presented by OARS Directed & Produced by Dana Romanoff Supported by American Rivers You might also like: A Guide to Fighting for Wild Rivers: โข A Guide to Fighting for Wild Rivers | Pres… Martinโs Boat – A Film by Pete McBride: โข Martin’s Boat – A Film By Pete McBride Dory Land: โข Dory Land | Presented by OARS OARS has been providing whitewater rafting, hiking & multi-sport vacations since 1969 and we learned from decades of experience how to create magical nature-based experiences for you, your family, your friends or your businessโthe beauty of a pristine wilderness setting, combined with real-life adventure and thrills, captivating companionship and the chance to get away from it all. Find out more at our website: https://www.oars.com
Deadlocked for months in tense, closed-door meetings, Colorado River states may be one step closer to an agreement. Representatives from each of the seven Western states have agreed to discuss a new path forward โ one that could more firmly ground Colorado River policy in hydrological reality as snowpack fails to deliver, reservoirs decline and fears mount…The proposal, presented for the first time publicly at a meeting in Arizona on June 17, would base the release of water from Lake Powell on a three-year average of the โnatural flowsโ of the river. Water released from Lake Powell ends up in Lake Mead, the source of roughly 90 percent of Southern Nevadaโs supply…The natural-flow proposal, while details remain sparse, would be a stunning departure from guidelines minted in 2007, which some argue donโt take into account declining water availability.
This 2023 diagram shows the tubes through which Lake Powell’s fish can pass through to the section of the Colorado River that flows through the Grand Canyon. Credit: USGS and Reclamation 2023
Federal officials reported Tuesday that the water level in Lake Powell, one of the main water storage reservoirs for the Colorado River Basin, could fall low enough to stop hydropower generation at the reservoir by December 2026.
The reservoirโs water levels have fallen as the Colorado River Basin, the water supply for 40 million people, has been overstressed by rising temperatures, prolonged drought and relentless demand. Upper Basin officials sounded the alarm in June, saying this yearโs conditions echo the extreme conditions of 2021 and 2022, when Lake Powell and its sister reservoir, Lake Mead, dropped to historic lows.
The seven basin states, including Colorado, are in high-stakes negotiations over how to manage the basinโs water after 2026. One of the biggest impasses has been how to cut water use in the basinโs driest years.
โYou canโt reduce what doesnโt come down the stream. And thatโs the reality weโre faced with,โ Commissioner Gene Shawcroft of Utah said in the statement. โThe only way weโre going to achieve a successful outcome is if weโre willing to work together โ and not just protect our own interests.โ
Lake Powell is seen in a November 2019 aerial photo from the nonprofit EcoFlight. The Upper Basin states are proposing two pools of stored water in Lake Powell: A Lake Powell protection account and a Lake Powell conservation account. Credit: EcoFlight
Lake Powell, located on the Utah-Arizona border, collects water from Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, part of Arizona and tribal reservations in the Colorado Riverโs Upper Basin. Glen Canyon Dam releases the reservoirโs water downstream to Lake Mead, Native American tribes, Mexico, and Lower Basin states, including Arizona, California and Nevada.
Lake Powell and Lake Mead make up about 92% of the reservoir storage capacity in the entire Colorado River Basin.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamationโs July report, called a 24-month study, shows the potential for Lake Powell to decline below two critical elevations: 3,525 feet and 3,490 feet.
It could drop below 3,525 feet in April 2026, which would prompt emergency drought response actions. Thatโs in the most probable scenario, but the federal agency also considers drier and wetter forecast scenarios. The dry forecast shows that the reservoirโs water levels would fall below this elevation as soon as January.
Lake Powell would have to fall below 3,490 feet in order to halt power generation.
Planning for emergency water releases
In 2021 and 2022, officials leapt into crisis management mode and released water from upstream reservoirs โ including Blue Mesa, Coloradoโs largest reservoir โ to stabilize Lake Powellโs water levels.
The July 24-month study triggered planning for potential emergency releases, called drought response operations, at Lake Powell, and Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navajo reservoirs, said Chuck Cullom, executive director of the Upper Colorado River Commission.
โThe Upper Division States and Reclamation have been monitoring the risks to Lake Powell since January 2025 due to the declining snowpack and runoff, and are prepared to take appropriate actions as conditions evolve through 2025 and spring of 2026,โ he said in an email to The Colorado Sun.
The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson
At-risk hydropower
Hydroelectric power generation takes a hit with lower water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead.
Reclamationโs dry conditions forecast says Lake Powell could fall below 3,490 feet by December 2026, and Lake Meadโs water level could fall below a key elevation, 1,035 feet, by May 2027. At that point, Hoover Dam would have to turn off several turbines and its power production would be significantly reduced, said Eric Kuhn, a Colorado water expert.
In more typical or unusually wet forecasts, neither reservoir would fall below these critical elevations in the next two years, according to the report.
Lake Powell and other federal reservoirs provide a cheap and consistent source of renewable energy. Without that, electricity providers would have to look to other, more expensive sources of energy or nonrenewable supplies. Some of those costs can get handed down to customers in their monthly utility bills.
Output capacity of the damโs turbines decreases in direct proportion to the reservoirโs surface elevation. As Lake Powell Shrinks, the dam generates less power. Source: Argonne National Laboratory.
Glen Canyonโs hydropower is normally pooled with other power sources to serve customers in Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Texas and Utah. Its power generation has already been impacted: Fourteen of the lowest generation years at the dam have occurred since 2000.
A strong monsoon season this summer could help elevate the water levels in the major reservoirs, as could a heavy winter snowpack in the mountains this coming winter.
โIf next year is below average, then weโre setting ourselves up for some very difficult decisions in the basin,โ said Kuhn, former general manager of the Colorado River District and author of โScience Be Dammed,โ a book about the perils of ignoring science in Western water management.
Arizona power house at Hoover Dam December 2019. Each of the 17 hydroelectric generators at Hoover Dam can produced electricity sufficient for 1,000 houses. Photo credit: Allen Best/The Mountain Town News
An interstate legal mire
Kuhn has also been tracking the releases from Lake Powell with big, interstate legal questions in mind.
If the riverโs flow falls below a 10-year total of about 82.5 million acre-feet, it could trigger a legal mire. In that scenario, the Lower Basin could argue that the Upper Basin would be required to send more water downstream in compliance with the foundational agreement, the 1922 Colorado River Compact.
Some Upper Basin lawyers disagree about the terms of when states, like Colorado, would be required to send more water downstream. Thatโs a big concern for water users, including farmers and ranchers, who say they already donโt have enough water in dry years.
From 2017 to 2026, the 10-year cumulative flow is expected to be about 83 million acre-feet, Kuhn said.
โWeโre OK through 2026,โ Kuhn said. โBut under the most probable and minimum probable [forecasts], itโs almost a certainty that the flow will drop below 82.5.โ
Lake Powellโs ecosystems feel the strain
Bridget Deemer, a research ecologist for the U.S. Geological Survey, keeps her eye on how lower water levels impact ecosystems in Lake Powell.
In a recent study, she found that low dissolved oxygen zones grow larger as water levels fall and more sediment gets backed up in the reservoir over time. This sediment can spur more decomposition, which uses up oxygen in the water.
The zones can cut down on fish habitat. Fish donโt want to be in the warm surface waters of the lake, but as they search for their preferred temperature and food source, they can end up in an area with low oxygen, Deemer said.
The effect is greatest right below Glen Canyon Dam. In 2023, there were 116 days when the oxygen was below 5 milligrams per liter, which is the threshold for trout. At 2 to 3 milligrams per liter, the fish can die.
Deemer also studies how these zones are impacted by algae blooms.
Lake Powell researchers noted toxic algae blooms around the Fourth of July and last fall. They donโt know definitively what caused either bloom event, but research does show that warming water temperatures and increased nutrients are two leading causes of harmful algae blooms.
These blooms can impact fish, people, pets or anything that ingests the algae.
โIn general, Lake Powell is doing well,โ she said. โIts waters are really clear without a lot of nutrients and algal growth. These blooms are smaller scale and localized.โ
This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw improvement in drought-related conditions across areas of the Southeast, South, Midwest, central and northern Plains, Intermountain West, and Desert Southwest, where short-term precipitation accumulations (past 30-day period) have helped to improve drought-related conditions. For the week, the most significant rainfall accumulations were observed across northern Kansas and areas of the Midwest including Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana where accumulations ranged from 3 to 10+ inches, with the highest accumulations observed in northeastern Kansas. On the map, improving conditions over the past 30 to 60 days led to reduction in areas of drought in the Plains states, Kansas to North Dakota, as well as across drought-affected areas across the Midwest. Elsewhere, short-term dryness led to widespread expansion of areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) across the Southeast states including the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. In the South, drought conditions continued to improve in Texas, including in the Trans-Pecos region in western Texas where short and mid-term composite drought indicators are showing improving conditions in terms of precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation health. In the West, conditions were generally dry regionally, however, some isolated monsoon thunderstorms provided a much-needed boost in moisture (2 to 3 inch accumulations during the past week) to drought-affected areas of east-central and southeastern Arizona as well as lesser accumulations observed in central and northern Arizona. In terms of reservoir storage in the West, Californiaโs reservoirs continue to be at or above historical averages for the date (July 22), with the stateโs two largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, at 105% and 117% of average, respectively. In the Southwest, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is reporting (July 21) Lake Powell at 31% full (47% of average for the date), Lake Mead at 31% full (52%), and the total Colorado system (July 20) at 39% of capacity (compared to 45% of capacity the same time last year)…
On this weekโs map, improvements were made in the region, namely in central northern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, and South Dakota, where shorter-term precipitation (past 30-60 days) was normal to above normal. Additionally, these areas were showing improvements in other drought indicators including soil moisture, streamflow activity, and crop-related vegetation health indices. Conversely, conditions degraded on the map in areas of central South Dakota as well as in northern North Dakota, where dry conditions have prevailed during the past 30 to 60 days. For the week, light-to-heavy rainfall accumulations (ranging from 1 to 10 inches) were observed, with the heaviest amounts impacting northern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. Below-normal average temperatures (ranging from 1 to 8 degrees F) were logged across most of the entire region…
Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending July 22, 2025.
Out West, generally dry conditions prevailed over much of the region with the exception of isolated areas of the Four Corners states, which observed monsoon-related thunderstorm activity with accumulations ranging from 1 to 4 inches. The storms led to targeted improvements on the map in Arizona. Likewise, isolated areas of the Pacific Northwest and eastern Plains of Montana and Wyoming observed isolated shower activity with accumulations generally of < 2 inches. On the map, persistent dry conditions led to expansion of areas of drought in southeastern Idaho, western Wyoming, and in eastern and southwestern Montana. For the week, average temperatures were mainly below normal with anomalies ranging from 2 to 10 degrees F and the greatest departures logged were observed in eastern Montana…
On this weekโs map, improvements were made in the Hill Country and Trans-Pecos regions of Texas in response to improving conditions during the past 30-90 days. In these regions, targeted improvements were made in all drought categories (D1-D4). In Tennessee, a mix of degradations and improvements were made on the map in isolated areas of central and eastern Tennessee. For the week, average temperatures were generally above normal in eastern areas of the region, with anomalies ranging from 2 to 8 degrees F. Conversely, the western extent of the region, including much of Texas and Oklahoma, experienced temperatures ranging from 1 to 5 degrees F below normal. Texas reservoirs are reported to be 80% full, with many in the eastern part of the state in good condition (over 90% full), while numerous others in the western portion of the state continue to experience below-normal levels, according to Water Data for Texas (July 23). In terms of streamflow activity (July 23), the U.S. Geological Survey is reporting well above normal streamflows (>90th percentile) across areas of central and eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and north-central Tennessee, while areas of the Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas Plains, northern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi are experiencing below normal levels (1st to 24th percentile range)…
Looking Ahead
The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for relatively dry conditions across the western U.S., areas of the South, and southern Plains. Elsewhere, light-to-moderate accumulations are expected across areas of the central and northern Plains, Northeast, and the Gulf Coast region of the South and Southeast. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10-day outlooks call for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across most of the conterminous U.S. with the exception of portions of California and Maine where below-normal temperatures are forecasted. In terms of precipitation, there is a low-to-moderate probability of above-normal precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, northern portions of the Intermountain West, central and northern Plains, Gulf Coast region, and much of the Eastern Seaboard…
US Drought Monitor one week change map ending July 22, 2025.
By measuring the gravitational pull of water for more than two decades, NASA satellites have peered beneath the surface and measured changes in the groundwater supplies of the Colorado River Basin for years 2002 to 2024. Credit NASA
By measuring the gravitational pull of water for more than two decades, NASA satellites have peered beneath the surface and measured changes in the groundwater supplies of the Colorado River Basin for years 2015 to 2024. Credit: NASA
By measuring the gravitational pull of water for more than two decades, NASA satellites have peered beneath the surface and measured changes in the groundwater supplies of the Colorado River Basin. In a recent analysis of the satellite data, Arizona State University researchers reported rapid and accelerating losses of groundwater in the basinโs underground aquifers between 2002 and 2024. Some 40 million people rely on water from the aquifers, which include parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.
The basin lost about 27.8 million acre-feet of groundwater during the study period. โThatโs an amount roughly equal to the storage capacity of Lake Mead,โ said Karem Abdelmohsen, an associate research scientist at Arizona State University who authored the study.
About 68 percent of the losses occurred in the lower part of the basin, which lies mostly in Arizona. The research is based on data collected by the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and GRACE-FO (GRACE Follow-On) missions. The data were integrated with output from land surface models, such as NASAโs North American Land Data Assimilation System, and in-situ precipitation data to calculate groundwater losses.
The conclusions were similar to those arrived at by Arizona State University Global Futures Professor Jay Famiglietti in an analysis of the Colorado River Basin published in 2014, when his team was at the University of California, Irvine. “If left unmanaged for another decade, groundwater levels will continue to drop, putting Arizonaโs water security and food production at far greater risk than is being acknowledged,โ said Famiglietti, previously a senior water scientist at NASAโs Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the principal investigator of both studies.
The maps above underscore the accelerating rate of groundwater loss detected by the GRACE missions. In the first decade of the analysis, between 2002 and 2014, parts of the basin in western Arizona in La Paz and Mohave counties and in southeastern Arizona in Cochise County lost groundwater at a rate of about 5 millimeters (0.2 inches) per year. Between 2015 and 2024, the rate of groundwater loss more than doubled to 12 millimeters (0.5 inches) per year. [ed. emphasis mine]
1950 – 2023
Two key factors likely explain the acceleration, the researchers said. First, there was a global transition from one of the strongest El Niรฑos on record in 2014-2016 to a period when La Niรฑa reasserted control, including the arrival of a โtriple-dipโ La Niรฑa between 2020 and 2023. La Niรฑa typically shifts winter precipitation patterns in a way that reduces rainfall over the Southwest and slows the replenishment of aquifers.
Second, there was an increase in the amount of groundwater being used for agriculture. โ2014 was about the time that industrial agriculture took off in Arizona,โ Famiglietti said, noting that large alfalfa farms arrived in La Paz and other parts of southern Arizona around that time. Dairies and orchards in southeastern Arizona likely impacted groundwater supplies as well, he added. Other โthirstyโ crops grown widely in the state include cotton, corn, and pecans. Data from the U.S. Department of Agricultureโs Cropland Data Layer(CDL) shows that these crops are common in several parts of southern Arizona, including Maricopa, Pinal, and Cochise counties.
Irrigated agriculture consumes about 72 percent of Arizonaโs available water supply; cities and industry account for 22 percent and 6 percent, respectively, according to Arizona Department of Water Resources data. Many farms use what Famiglietti described as โvastโ amounts of groundwater in part because they use a water-intensive type of irrigation known as flood irrigation (or sometimes furrow irrigation), a technique where water is released into trenches that run through crop fields. The long-standing practice is typically the cheapest option and is widely used for alfalfa and cotton, but it can lead to more water loss and evaporation than other irrigation techniques, such as overhead sprinklers or dripping water from plastic tubing.
Captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8, shows desert agriculture in La Paz and Maricopa counties on July 12, 2025. CDL data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates that most of the rectangular fields around Vicksburg and Wenden are used to grow alfalfa, while the fields around Aguila are typically used for fruits and vegetables, such as melons, broccoli, and leafy greens. Some of the alfalfa fields in Butler Valley (upper part of the image) have gone fallow in recent years following the termination of leases due to concerns from the Arizona State Land Department about groundwater pumping.
The satellite image above, captured by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8, shows desert agriculture in La Paz and Maricopa counties on July 12, 2025. CDL data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates that most of the rectangular fields around Vicksburg and Wenden are used to grow alfalfa, while the fields around Aguila are typically used for fruits and vegetables, such as melons, broccoli, and leafy greens. Some of the alfalfa fields in Butler Valley (upper part of the image) have gone fallow in recent years following the termination of leases due to concerns from the Arizona State Land Department about groundwater pumping.
The new analysis found some evidence that managing groundwater can help keep Arizona aquifers healthier. For instance, the active management areas and irrigation non-expansion areas established as part of the Arizona Groundwater Management Act of 1980 lessened water losses in some areas. The designation of a new active management area in the Willcox Basin in 2025 will likely further slow groundwater losses. โStill, the bottom line is that the losses to groundwater were huge,โ Abdelmohsen said. โLots of attention has gone to low water levels in reservoirs over the years, but the depletion of groundwater far outpaces the surface water losses. This is a big warning flag.โ
NASA supports several missions, tools, and datasets relevant to water resource management. Among them is OpenET, a web-based platform that uses satellite data to measure how much water plants and soils release into the atmosphere. The tool can help farmers tailor irrigation schedules to actual water use by plants, optimizing โcrop per dropโ and reducing waste.
Climate change is warming the North Pacific Ocean, leading weather patterns that drive drought in the U.S. Southwest to persist decades longer than they have in the recent past.
The drought in the Southwestern U.S. is likely to last for the rest of the 21st century and potentially beyond as global warming shifts the distribution of heat in the Pacific Ocean, according to a study published last week led by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin.
Using sediment cores collected in the Rocky Mountains, paleoclimatology records and climate models, the researchers found warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions can alter patterns of atmospheric and marine heat in the North Pacific Ocean in a way resembling whatโs known as the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), fluctuations in sea surface temperatures that result in decreased winter precipitation in the American Southwest. But in this case, the phenomenon can last far longer than the usual 30-year cycle of the PDO.
โIf the sea surface temperature patterns in the North Pacific were just the result of processes related to stochastic [random] variability in the past decade or two, we would have just been extremely unlucky, like a really bad roll of the dice,โ said Victoria Todd, the lead author of the study and a Ph.D student in geosciences at UT Austin. โBut if, as we hypothesize, this is a forced change in the sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, this will be sustained into the future, and we need to start looking at this as a shift, instead of just the result of bad luck.โ
Currently, the Southwestern U.S. is experiencing a megadrought resulting in the aridification of the landscape, a decades-long drying of the region brought on by climate change and the overconsumption of the regionโs water. Thatโs led to major rivers and their basins, such as the Colorado and Rio Grande rivers, seeing reduced flows and a decline of the water stored in underground aquifers, which is forcing states and communities to reckon with a sharply reduced water supply. Farmers have cut back on the amount of water they use. Cities are searching for new water supplies. And states, tribes and federal agencies are engaging in tense negotiations over how to manage declining resources like the Colorado River going forward.
โPlanners need to consider that this drought, these reductions in winter precipitation, are likely to continue, and plan for that,โ said Tim Shanahan, an associate professor at UT Austinโs Jackson School of Geosciences and co-author of the study.
The research began with decades-old sample cores taken from lakes in the Rocky Mountains. Using modern geochemical techniques, Todd was able analyze drought conditions during the mid-Holocene period 6,000 years ago, a period in Earthโs history when the Northern Pacific warmed and the Southwestern U.S. experienced hundreds of years of drought.
But the sample cores suggest the drought was much worse than previously thought by scientists. Through a series of climate models, the researchers found vegetation change in the tropics darkened the Earthโs surface so that it absorbed more of the sunโs heat. That led to a warming of the North Pacific that was similar to the PDO that drives drought in the Southwest, but in this case, the drying lasted for centuries. โAs soon as we saw that, you know, we started thinking about whatโs happening today,โ Todd said.
For the past 30 years, the PDO has been in its negative phase, which leads to drought in the Southwest by reducing winter precipitation and the runoff from mountain snowpack that fills many of the regionโs rivers and recharges groundwater aquifers.
Using an ensemble of historical and future climate models forecasting climate and precipitation patterns until 2100, they found the PDO-like negative phase continues through this century. But unlike the mid-Holocene periodโs warming, which was brought on by vegetation change, todayโs is driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Certain models revealed that the change in the ocean pattern was less about vegetation absorbing solar radiation, Todd said, and more about warming in general.
The study also revealed that current climate models are underestimating drought conditions, Todd and Shanahan said, and they hope to find better ways to approximate aridity going forward.
Drought that continued until the end of the century would have major implications for water resources in the Southwest and how they are managed. The region currently sustains some of the countryโs biggest cities and most productive agricultural areas.
Brian Richter, president of the water research and education group Sustainable Waters and a water researcher not involved in the study, said the research further proves the drought in the Southwest is more intense than previously thought and is not going away any time soon.
โDoesnโt it suck that every time the science improves, the outlook for the climate and water looks worse?โ he said.
In many ways, Richter said, what people are seeing on the ground is outpacing science. Five years ago, he said, farmers would say theyโve been through droughts before, and this one would soon pass. Now, he said, their tone has changed to โThis is a different kind of a drought.โ
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall