NWS: The one-month Colorado outlook indicates above normal temps with precipitation probabilities holding near seasonal norms

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Click on the thumbnail graphics for the one month outlook for precipitation and temperatures. The precipitation graphic shows monsoon conditions expected to continue. Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s report from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center:

AFTER THE RECORD HOT MONTH OF JUNE 2012, DENVER’S WEATHER HISTORY SHOWS THAT JULY CAN GO EVEN HOTTER. JULY IS DENVER’S CLIMATOLOGICAL WARMEST MONTH AND LIKE MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES, THE DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PEAK APPROXIMATELY 4 WEEKS AFTER THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.

DENVER, ALONG WITH THE ENTIRE SPAN OF THE U.S. ROCKIES, EXPERIENCE THE ONSET OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON DURING JULY. EVERY YEAR A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TYPICALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH COLORADO LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE. THIS ALLOWS FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO DRAW NORTHWARD, AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.

LIKE JUNE, LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE OFTEN FINDS IT’S WAY INTO EASTERN COLORADO ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES LOW-LEVEL JET. THE WEAKEST OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, RIDING OVER THE MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS, CAN IGNITE AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SEVERE WEATHER RANGING FROM HEAVY RAIN TO TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL TO TORNADOES.

WITH DENVER’S DAILY NORMAL TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN LATE JULY, TEMPERATURE VARIATION BECOMES FAIRLY LOW FROM THE BEGINNING THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. DENVER’S MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR JULY IS 74.2 DEGREES (1981-2010 AVERAGES) AND IS DENVER’S WARMEST MONTH OF THE YEAR. JULY STARTS THE MONTH WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 87 DEGREES AND ENDS WITH A NORMAL HIGH OF 90 DEGREES. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, THE MONTH BEGINS WITH A NORMAL OF 57 DEGREES AND FINISHES WITH A NORMAL OF 60…

AFTER RECORD BREAKING HEAT IN JUNE ALONG WITH THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN DENVER, THE MID TO LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE STABLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF JULY, 2012. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A BIAS TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR THE REMAINDER OF JULY 2012, DESPITE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER’S LONG RANGE OUTLOOK INDICATES A BIAS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HOLDING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

Bring on the North American Monsoon.

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