Forecast news: El Niño building in the Eastern Pacific Ocean


From the Aspen Business Journal (Bob Berwyn):

At this point, the weather gurus are confidently predicting that a full-fledged El Niño will develop by autumn, perhaps reaching peak strength during the winter, when its effects are most often felt.

And that could be good news for at least the first part of the ski season, according to Klaus Wolter, a meteorologist with the University of Colorado’s CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center and NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory.

From the Summit Daily News (Paige Blankenbuehler):

In Colorado, the eastern plains have the best chances of moisture from October 2012 to June 2013, according to Klaus Wolter, a climatologist who makes long-range forecasts for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder. But things still may bode well for the mountains.

“In fact, one could argue that the northern Front Range and Rocky Mountains may end up with the wettest outcome,” Wolter said.

The last two years have been La Niña seasons and “long-lived La Niña events have a more pronounced tendency to flip to El Niño, 60 percent of two-year events end up in El Niño in the third year,” Wolter said.

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