Here’s an article about the potential for a call on the Colorado River by the Lower Basin States, written by John McClow running in the Grand Junction Free Press. Here’s an excerpt:
A glance at a map discloses that the sources of the Colorado River lie in the mountains of the Upper Basin, with about 70% of the river’s total flow originating in Colorado. The Upper Basin is currently experiencing a protracted drought that began in 2000 and has continued through 2012 (despite a very wet year in 2011). Because of the drought, attention has become focused on the language in the compact directing that the Upper Basin states “will not cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75 million acre-feet for any period of 10 consecutive years.” That averages out to the 7.5 million acre-feet per year apportioned to the Lower Basin. In addition, the Upper Basin provides one-half of the 1.5 million acre-feet per year promised to Mexico in a 1944 treaty. How does the Upper Basin accomplish that, given the variability in river flows?[…]
The drought of the past 12 years has raised concern that a compact call is a real possibility. Presently, the 30-year average inflow into Lake Powell is 10.83 million acre-feet per year. Since 1999, when the reservoir was full, inflows to Lake Powell have met or exceeded that average only in 2005 (105%), 2008 (102%), and 2011 (142%). The 2002 inflow totaled only 25% of the average and in 2005, storage fell below 9 million acre-feet. As the Colorado River Basin continues to experience the worst drought in over a century, with low inflows and depleted reservoirs, is a compact call imminent?
Probably not. In May 2005, the Secretary of the Interior initiated a process to develop strategies to address the drought. Many stakeholders participated, led by representatives of the seven Colorado River Basin states. The result was the adoption of interim guidelines for the operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead that coordinate operations to minimize shortages in the Lower Basin and avoid the risk of curtailment in the Upper Basin.
From Tuscon News Now:
In the Southwest, the drought is most noticeable in reservoir levels…
Even though Arizona has experience a fairly wet monsoon this year CLIMAS says “One reason for these {ongoing drought} classifications is that many of the region’s important reservoirs are low. The most probable inflow volume into Lake Powell for the 2012 water year is projected to be 5.15 million acre-feet, or 48 percent of average. If this comes to pass, Colorado River streamflows will go down as the third lowest on record.”