National Weather Service: El Niño watch in effect

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Click here for the September – November Climate Outlook for Colorado from the National Weather Service. Here’s a preview:

During July, prevailing oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicated the presence of ENSO-neutral conditions. However, in recent weeks positive equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have continued to steadily increase, exceeding 0.5C across the eastern tropical Pacific. This and other indicators reflect a likely progression towards El Niño…

Nine of the 17 dynamical models used to predict the different phases of ENSO indicate an El Niño of at least moderate strength (an average SST anomaly of 1.0˚C and greater) during the September-November (SON) 2012 climate season. Two dynamical models go so far as to predict a strong El Niño during this three month period.

By contrast, none of the eight statistical ENSO prediction models indicate an El Niño stronger than weak during the SON 2012 season. Three of these models predict neutral conditions to persist through the 2012-2013 winter season…

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Precipitation in northeast Colorado for the [3-month] period of September, October and November has historically been above average during El Niño events, slightly below average during ENSO-neutral conditions and below average during La Niña episodes.

For the same three month period, temperatures were slightly below average during El Niños, and above average during ENSO-neutral conditions and La Niña events…

For the months of September, October and November, precipitation in southeast Colorado has historically been above average during El Niño events and near to below average for ENSO-neutral and La Niña episodes.

For the same three month period, temperature was below average during El Niño events and near to above average during ENSO-neutral and La Niña conditions…

Precipitation in western Colorado during these same 3 months was historically above average during El Niños, near to slightly below average for ENSO-neutral conditions, and below average during La Niña events.

Temperatures during the same period were slightly below average for El Niños, and slightly above average for ENSO-neutral and La Niña conditions.

Click through and look at the whole report. It’s chock full of data.

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