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In mid-July, the sea-surface temperatures were slightly below average but in the ENSO-neutral range, and some atmospheric indicators showed neutral conditions while others leaned slightly toward La Niña. A new set of model runs predicts that cool-neutral or weak La Niña conditions are most likely from late Northern Hemisphere summer through early winter, with a 50-55% probability for weak La Niña for the August-October through October-December seasons. This outlook calls for just slightly lower chances for La Niña from late summer to early winter as the official ENSO forecast issued July 9, which used both models and human judgment, and which now carries a La Niña watch.
Weston Anderson provides the briefing summary: