Day: April 7, 2026

#Colorado Basin River Forecast Center: Water Supply Discussion April 1, 2026

Click the link to read the discussion on the USBR website:

The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB).

Water Supply Forecasts

April 1 water supply forecasts are well below normal and summarized in the figure and table below. Snowpack and soil moisture are the primary hydrologic conditions that impact the water supply outlook, while future weather is the primary source of forecast uncertainty.

Water Year Weather

The 2025–26 meteorological winter (December–Februrary) was the warmest winter on record for vast swaths of the CBRFC area. In March, an extraordinarily anomalous high pressure system — of a strength that is more typical of July — impacted the Southwest. This ridge brought summertime temperatures at a time when most mountainous areas are usually still building a snowpack.

Across the region in mid-to-late March, temperature records were smashed for several days on end. In Flagstaff, AZ, 11 days reached or surpassed the previous March high temperature record of 73°. Shockingly, on two days the mercury climbed to 83° and 84° , significantly surpassing the April high temperature record of 80° . At 8,710 feet above sea level in Alta, UT, where March high temperatures average in the 30s, temperatures reached at least 60° on eight days. Nine days of at least 100° were observed in Phoenix, AZ, including the earliest 100° day on record. The depth and duration of this heat wave was unprecedented in the period of record. It will likely go down as one of the most extreme weather events to ever impact the CBRFC area.

The same ridge of high pressure that brought searing temperatures to the low elevations and snowmelt across high elevations also resulted in very dry air and no precipitation. Numerous SNOTEL sites across the CBRFC area observed their driest March on record.

The water year as a whole tells a different story. In October, several rounds of heavy rain tied to decaying tropical storms brought record flooding to portions of AZ, southern UT, and southwest CO — making it one of the wettest Octobers on record. Water year-to-date (October–March) precipitation is highly variable, ranging from well below normal across much of Colorado and Utah’s mountains, to near/above normal in the Upper Green River Basin and portions of the LCRB. The figures and table below summarize March temperatures and water year 2026 precipitation.

Snowpack Conditions

Snow water equivalent (SWE) has been tracking at or near record low much of the season. An extremely dry March and significant snowmelt during the last half of the month led to historically low April 1 snow water equivalent conditions across the region. An NRCS-Utah Snow Survey Special Report states that “at no time since systematic snowpack measurements began around 1930 has April 1 snowpack been this low in the state of Utah, and 2026 SWE is roughly five times lower than the previous record low”. A similar analysis performed by the Colorado Climate Center concluded that “this has been the worst year for Colorado snowpack in recorded history, and most locations have less than half of the previous record low”.

UCRB and GB April 1 snow covered area is 25-30% of the 2001-2025 median, which is also the lowest on record for early April dating back to 2001. 1 April 1 CBRFC model SWE conditions are generally less than 30% of normal across the UCRB and GB. SWE conditions are summarized in the figure and table below.

Soil Moisture

CBRFC hydrologic model soil moisture conditions impact water supply forecasts. Basins with above average soil moisture conditions can be expected to experience more efficient runoff from rainfall or snowmelt while basins with below average soil moisture conditions can be expected to have lower runoff efficiency until soil moisture deficits are fulfilled. The timing and magnitude of spring runoff is impacted by snowpack conditions, spring weather, and soil moisture conditions.

Mid-November 2025 soil moisture conditions were below normal across most areas as a result of warmer and drier than normal weather during the 2025 water year. Higher elevation soil moisture/baseflow conditions typically don’t change much during winter months as snow is accumulating. However, this has not been the case this winter. Model soil moisture conditions as a percent of average have improved across most basins as a result of snowmelt and precipitation falling as rain instead of snow. CBRFC hydrologic model soil moisture conditions are shown in the figures below.

Upcoming Weather

Mild and unsettled weather is expected over the CBRFC area into the middle of April, with a few chances for rain showers and very high elevation snowfall. Above average temperatures will dominate the period. The 7-day precipitation forecast and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8–14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks are shown in the figures below.

Climate Prediction Center precipitation and temperature probability forecasts for April 14–20, 2026.

A Drying #ColoradoRiver Threatens Imperial Valley’s Future: Declining flows and the warming climate imperil farms, green energy projects and the economy of one of #California’s poorest counties — Capitol & Main #COriver #aridification

The All American Canal, the largest diversion on the Colorado River, passes through Winterhaven, CA on its way to the Imperial Valley. The Colorado River is seen flowing next to it.

April 2, 2026

In the southeast corner of California, 300-foot-tall sand dunes rise from a sunbaked landscape dotted with ocotillo and creosote bushes. Summer temperatures here regularly exceed 110 degrees, and annual rainfall is comparable to that of the Sahara Desert. Despite its unforgiving terrain, more than 180,000 residents live in Imperial County, one of the country’s most productive agricultural regions and more recently a magnet for data center development and lithium extraction proposals. This has all been made possible by turn-of-the-20th century canals that carve up the region, supplying it with more than a million gallons of Colorado River water every minute. 

“We’ve often called it the lifeblood of Imperial Valley,” said Robert Schettler, a spokesperson for Imperial Irrigation District, the area’s public utility, which manages the region’s over 3,000 miles of drains and canals. “If something were to happen to that river, we would all have to pack up and leave.”

Something is happening to the Colorado River. Over the past century, its average water supply has fallen by nearly a third due to prolonged drought and climate change. Experts predict that decline will continue, threatening cities, tribes and farms that depend on the river’s flow, from Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico to Arizona, Nevada and Northern Mexico.  Most of the Colorado River’s water starts as snowpack in the Rocky Mountains, but after the American West experienced the warmest winter ever recorded, snow levels are now at historic lows, prompting experts to warn that 2026 may be one of the river’s driest years yet. 

That could spell disaster for Imperial County, whose harsh desert landscape of windblown sand and rugged burnt-orange mountains was transformed more than a century ago into productive, gridded farmland dotted with small cities such as Brawley, El Centro and Calexico…Imperial Valley’s agricultural industry consumes by far the largest share of water in the region, about 97% of the 3.1 million acre-feet managed by the Imperial Irrigation District every year…Those ambitious and largely successful conservation efforts have come at a cost. Much of the water used by farmers historically flowed into the nearby Salton Sea, but as farmers have reduced their water use, less runoff has reached the man-made lake, accelerating an existing environmental crisis Over the last three decades, the Salton Sea has shrunk by more than 60 square miles, exposing a dry lakebed laden with pesticides, particulate matter and heavy metals. Those contaminants are carried as dust through the air into nearby communities, contributing to a childhood asthma rate triple that of the national average. Now, farmers such as Brian Strahm, whose family has been growing crops in the area for four generations, are concerned they may have to decrease their water use further. That may prove difficult since farmers have already put in place many efficiency measures, Strahm said…Farmers say cuts could seriously harm the area’s already struggling economy. In addition to being the county with the highest percentage of Latinos in California, Imperial has among the highest unemployment rates of any county in the country, at nearly 19%. For those who do find work, the agricultural industry offers a lifeline, accounting for one out of every six jobs in the region. 

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Can data center developers help Xcel Energy drive down emissions? — Allen Best (BigPivots.com)

Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

April 2, 2026

Utility depicts proposed large-load tariff as a way of teaming with developers to bring on innovation

Xcel Energy today filed a proposal with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission to create a large-load tariff applicable to developers of data centers that expect to need 50 megawatts of electricity or more.

Xcel’s Jack Ihle, the company’s vice president for data centers and large loads, said the company believes it can meet its legal obligation to both reduce emissions 80% by 2030 and meet the needs of data center developers.

In the last 18 months, Xcel has expressed growing worries about whether it would have the electricity it needs to meet rising demands. This worry was expressed even before its newest and large coal-burning unit, Comanche 3, went down last August. That unit is now expected to return to service in August. Xcel in March suggested it may want to delay retirement of its two coal-burning units at Hayden until 2030. They are currently scheduled to be retired in 2027 and 2028.

Ihle said the company’s resource adequacy concerns pertain mostly to the near term. Longer term, when the tariff for large-load customers would have effect, the company believes it’s in good shape owing to actions already underway. For example, the PUC authorized a rushed near-term solicitation in September 2025 that allowed the company to take advantage of tax credits for clean energy that will expire because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed by Congress last July.

See: “Elephant-sized plans for eastern Colorado,” Dec.8, 2025, Big Pivots.

Data center developers could be part of the solution, said Ihle. Xcel sees the data centers as potential partners in developing next-generation energy and storage technologies.

“We may able to partner with large-load customer hyperscalers, who have the risk appetite, and to explore some of the (possibilities) we have not been able to” as a company.

Most prominent of these next-generation technologies is enhanced geothermal. Gov. Jared Polis in 2024 said he believed that by 2040 Colorado may get 4 to 8% of its electricity from geothermal. Unlike geothermal for buildings, which rely upon heat found in the ground relatively close to the surface, enhanced geothermal involves heat thousands of feet underground.

One company has been exploring whether deep oil wells near Pierce, north of Greeley, could be adapted. Another company has plans near Durango.

More definitive is work underway by Fervo Energy in central-Utah. There, near Milford, it is developing a 400- to 500-megawatt enhanced geothermal system. Two weeks ago, Fervo announced $421 million in financing for the project.

Does Colorado have the same quality geothermal resources lying underfoot? Probably not. The larger question may be whether the technology can develop rapidly enough to be of value in Colorado in the next 15 years.

Ihle also cited the 100-hour storage pilot project using iron-air technology planned at Pueblo. It is, he said, the sort of innovative technology that could be pursued with data centers as partners.

In some places, data centers have started creating their own electrical generation. The concept is called behind the meter, and it’s not necessarily new. Hospitals famously have backup resources.

Ihle said developers of hyperscale data centers — often defined as being 50 megawatts or more — have told him that they would much rather deal with a utility than develop their own resources. In Colorado, for example, building a natural gas plant to provide power for a data center will still require getting permits from the state’s Air Pollution Control Division.

In Minnesota, home base for Xcel, the utility has an agreement with Google that illustrates what it hopes will happen in Colorado.

There, Google plans a data center that will support services that include Workspace, Search, YouTube and Maps. Xcel promises to deliver 1,400 megawatts of wind, 200 megawatts of solar and 300 megawatts of long-duration (100-hour) energy storage. In addition, Google’s agreement with Xcel will yield a $50 million investment toward an Xcel program that is intended to drive reliability on the grid.

Under the agreement, Google will also pay all costs for its new service in line with its typical practices and Minnesota’s regulatory and legislative requirement.

“That is the kind of thing we want in Colorado,” said Ihle.

Xcel stressed that this proposal would not hurt other customers financially. Large-load customers would pay for the power infrastructure needed to serve them. This includes covering electric transmission, substations and interconnection upgrades as well as paying for new electric generation.

The data center developer would need to make a long-term contractual commitment, typically 15 years or more. And what if the customer exits early? Termination charges will recover remaining costs of project-specific upgrades built, avoiding stranded costs for other customers.

In the filing this afternoon, Ihle said this: “Taken together, the Company’s proposal ensures that large load customers bear the costs they impose, protects existing customers from adverse impacts, and creates a structured pathway for responsible growth.

Xcel also stresses the economic potential for data centers in generating tax revenue for schools and other public needs. Xcel says data centers can, depending upon size and location, pay $2 million to $16 million in property taxes.

At a forum in Boulder on Wednesday morning, Lon Huber, senior vice president and chief planning officer for Xcel, described Xcel’s partnership with Google in Minnesota.

“Once you get to like 70 to 80% (emissions-free electricity), it’s really hard to squeeze the last remaining bit out,” said Huber. “So we need new tech. That’s where the partnership comes in.”

Will Toor, director of the Colorado Energy Office, spoke on the same panel.

“There’s a lot of potential benefits that to the extent that we can serve strategically located data centers in places where we don’t need, for instance, significant new transmission investments, where we can make use of curtailed renewables, where we can make use of infrastructure in energy transition communities,” he said.

This depends, he added, upon getting the rate structures right, so that data centers are paying for their incremental costs but are also helping to cover the fixed costs that we have on the system.

If that can be done, he said, it can be good for all ratepayers.