It’s very early in the season and a lot of snow still has to fall to get the state to an average year. Expectations are that La Niña will again bless the northern part of the state with snow like last year, although not in record amounts. Click on the thumbnail graphic to the right for this morning’s snowpack map.

From Science Daily:

The second century A.D. saw an extended dry period of more than 100 years characterized by a multi-decade drought lasting nearly 50 years, says a new study from scientists at the University of Arizona.

UA geoscientists Cody Routson, Connie Woodhouse and Jonathan Overpeck conducted a study of the southern San Juan Mountains in south-central Colorado. The region serves as a primary drainage site for the Rio Grande and San Juan rivers.

“These mountains are very important for both the San Juan River and the Rio Grande River,” said Routson, a doctoral candidate in the environmental studies laboratory of the UA’s department of geosciences and the primary author of the study, which is upcoming in Geophysical Research Letters…

To sample the trees without damaging them, the dendrochronologists used a tool like a metal screw that bores a tiny hole in the trunk of the tree and allows them to extract a sample, called a core. “We take a piece of wood about the size and shape of a pencil from the tree,” explained Routson.

“We also sampled dead wood that was lying about the land. We took our samples back to the lab where we used a visual, graphic technique to match where the annual growth patterns of the living trees overlap with the patterns in the dead wood. Once we have the pattern matched we measure the rings and average these values to generate a site chronology.”

“In our chronology for the south San Juan mountains we created a record that extends back 2,200 years,” said Routson. “It was pretty profound that we were able to get back that far.”[…]

“What we can see from our record is that it was a period of basically 50 consecutive years of below-average growth,” said Routson. “And that’s within a much broader period that extends from around 124 A.D. to 210 A.D. — about a 100-year-long period of dry conditions.”

“We’re showing that there are multiple extreme drought events that happened during our past in this region,” said Routson. “These megadroughts lasted for decades, which is much longer than our current drought. And the climatic events behind these previous dry periods are really similar to what we’re experiencing today.”

The prolonged drought in the 12th century and the newly discovered event in the second century A.D. may both have been influenced by warmer-than-average Northern Hemisphere temperatures, Routson said: “The limited records indicate there may have been similar La Nina-like background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which are known to influence modern drought, during the two periods.”

More coverage from the Associated Press via The Durango Herald. From the article:

The geoscientists said the San Juan River is a tributary for the Colorado River, meaning any climate changes that affect the San Juan drainage also likely would affect the Colorado River and its watershed.

Scientists say the prolonged drought in the 12th century and the newly discovered event in the second century may both have been influenced by warmer-than-average Northern Hemisphere temperatures. The researchers looked for indications of climate in the past in the growth rings of the oldest trees in the southern San Juan region to develop their chronology.

Click on the thumbnail graphic above and to the right for the current U.S. Drought Monitor graphic.

From The Christian Science Monitor (Pete Spotts):

“I was shocked” when this result emerged, says Gregory Pederson, a hydrologist at the US Geological Survey’s Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center in Bozeman, Mont., who led the [study] effort. Similar shifts show up in the 1300s and 1400s, when the Rockies experienced warming periods, he says, but temperatures then weren’t nearly as warm as today. Nor was the shift as strong. Many studies have documented the West’s declining snowpack. And at least as early as 2005, some researchers began to notice the potential regime shift that Dr. Pederson and his colleagues see, notes Klaus Wolter, a researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo…

The new study, conducted by a team of scientists in the United States and Canada, drew on tree-ring records that the team related to snowpack. The scientists focused on three broad regions in the Rockies that host the headwaters for major Western river systems, such as the Columbia, Missouri, and Colorado Rivers. While the shrinking snowpack in the 20th and early 21st centuries is not unprecedented from a climate-history standpoint, at no time in the past 800 years have so many people relied so heavily on these winter snows for their fresh water…

Typically, gains and losses of mountain snowpack seesaw between the northern and southern Rockies with these natural swings in Pacific climate patterns, Pederson explains. This feature stands out in the team’s data throughout the past millennium, with a couple of notable exceptions around 1350 and the early 1400s, when warmer average temperatures reduced snowpack up and down the length of the Rockies at the same time. The seesaw still occurs to some extent. But since the 1980s, snowpacks again have been declining along the entire length of North America’s geological spine, regardless of the state of these natural climate swings.

More climate change coverage here and here.

Year on year the human race is just not getting the message. China jumped past the U.S. as the world’s largest polluter in 2010 which is a dubious distinction at best. Spewing CO₂ into the atmosphere is not a race where there are any winners. The Chinese are talking the talk at least when it comes to climate change. Meanwhile, here in the U.S., many of our Republican politicians are arguing that humankind is in no way responsible for the warming we are witnessing. Worse than that, the politicians are controlling the argument by saying that we have to choose between jobs and the environment.

Here’s an article about the jump in greenhouse gases from the Associated Press (Seth Borenstein) via USA Today. From the article:

The new figures for 2010 mean that levels of greenhouse gases are higher than the worst case scenario outlined by climate experts just four years ago. “The more we talk about the need to control emissions, the more they are growing,” said John Reilly, co-director of MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

The world pumped about 564 million more tons (512 million metric tons) of carbon into the air in 2010 than it did in 2009. That’s an increase of 6%. That amount of extra pollution eclipses the individual emissions of all but three countries — China, the United States and India, the world’s top producers of greenhouse gases. It is a “monster” increase that is unheard of, said Gregg Marland, a professor of geology at Appalachian State University, who has helped calculate Department of Energy figures in the past…

India and China are huge users of coal. Burning coal is the biggest carbon source worldwide and emissions from that jumped nearly 8% in 2010. “The good news is that these economies are growing rapidly so everyone ought to be for that, right?” Reilly said Thursday. “Broader economic improvements in poor countries has been bringing living improvements to people. Doing it with increasing reliance on coal is imperiling the world.”

But Reilly and University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver found something good in recent emissions figures. The developed countries that ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gas limiting treaty have reduced their emissions overall since then and have achieved their goals of cutting emissions to about 8 percent below 1990 levels. The U.S. did not ratify the agreement. In 1990, developed countries produced about 60% of the world’s greenhouse gases, now it’s probably less than 50%, Reilly said.

Here’s an article about the Chinese passing the U.S. in 2010 from Michael McCarthy writing for The Independent. From the article:

Global CO2 emissions in 2010 reached 33.51 billion tonnes, up from 31.63 billion tonnes in 2009 – an increase of nearly 6 per cent. This is believed to be the highest-ever percentage increase year on year, despite growth in many industrial economies being sluggish or non-existent.

However, the figures from the US Department of Energy show clearly that it is the surging Chinese economy that is driving the growth: China’s emissions in 2010 were 8.15 billion tonnes, up from 7.46 billion tonnes the year before – a 9.3 per cent increase in 12 months.

The 694-million-tonne increase alone dwarfs all the carbon emissions that Britain produces in a year. China now accounts for 24.3 per cent of global carbon emissions and has taken over the role, held by America for decades, of the world’s biggest polluter.

The US, whose emissions totalled 5.49 billion tonnes in 2010, up from 5.27 billion tonnes in 2009 – an increase of 4.1 per cent – now accounts for 16 per cent of emissions worldwide. So although the Chinese did not overtake the US in carbon emissions until 2007, their share of the world total is now half as much again.

Between them, the two industrial giants produce 40 per cent of the world’s greenhouse gases, and neither shows any sign of slowing down.

The figures, produced by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, show another significant trend: India, the world’s third-biggest carbon polluter, is rapidly catching up. In 2010, its annual emissions passed two billion tonnes of CO2 for the first time, totalling 2.06 billion tonnes. The increase of 178,330 million tonnes on the year before was 9.4 per cent, a growth rate now exceeding China’s.

Where are your bicycles? More climate change coverage here and here.

We humans love being in and around water and this report underscores that association with the majority of projects dealing with waterways and wetlands. Here’s the link to the report. Here’s the release:

Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar today released a final 50-State America’s Great Outdoors Report outlining more than 100 of the country’s most promising projects designed to protect special places and increase access to outdoor spaces. The full report – which contains two projects per state – comes as part of President Obama’s America’s Great Outdoors (AGO) initiative to establish a community-based, 21st century agenda for conservation, recreation, and reconnecting Americans to the outdoors.

“We have listened to the American people and their elected representatives about the most important things we can do to conserve our land and water and reconnect people, especially young people, to the outdoors,” Salazar said. “These projects represent what states believe are among the best investments in the nation to support a healthy, active population, conserve wildlife and working lands, and create travel, tourism and outdoor-recreation jobs across the nation.”

The full list released today includes:

24 projects to restore and provide recreational access to rivers and other waterways – such as establishing the Connecticut River as a National Blueway and expanding recreational opportunities at the confluence of the Mississippi and Minnesota Rivers in the Twin Cities;

23 projects to construct new trails or improve recreational sites – such as completing gaps in the Ice Age Trail in Wisconsin and expanding the multi-use Shingle Creek Trail in Florida;

20 projects that will create and enhance urban parks – such as rehabilitating wetlands habitat and building new outdoor recreational opportunities on Chicago’s South Side and increasing river access at Roberto Clemente State Park and restoring the Harlem River in the Bronx; and

13 projects that will restore and conserve America’s most significant landscapes – such as conserving Montana’s Crown of the Continent, establishing the Flint Hills of Kansas as a new easement-based conservation area, and conserving the native grasslands of North and South Dakota.

The list also includes 11 initiatives requested by states to establish new national wildlife refuges, national park units and other federal designations; five projects that will assist states and communities to protect key open space; and five initiatives to educate young people and connect them to nature.

The report is a result of 50 meetings with governors and stakeholders held by Salazar and other senior Interior officials to solicit ideas on how to best implement AGO in their states. These projects were identified for their potential to conserve important lands and build recreation opportunities and economic growth for the surrounding communities. Key stakeholders that were engaged in the conversation included private landowners, local- and tribal-elected officials, community organizations and outdoor-recreation and conservation groups.

Interior Department agencies will work with states and communities to advance the projects with existing resources through technical support and with their administrative authorities, and coordinate among each of its key bureaus – including the National Park Service, the Bureau of Land Management, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service – and, where possible, other federal agencies, to direct available resources and personnel to make tangible progress on these projects. They will also partner with states and communities to leverage grants, private funding and other resources.

In the next month, the Secretary will identify a Department official to lead each project. Those individuals will be held accountable for the development of an action plan, in collaboration with local stakeholders; and the advancement of that plan during the next year.

When President Obama launched the AGO last year, he assigned the Secretaries of the Departments of the Interior and Agriculture, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality to lead the initiative.

Based on the extensive listening sessions, the federal agencies submitted to the President “America’s Great Outdoors: A Promise to Future Generations,” a report which defines an action plan for conservation and recreation in the 21st century.

Among the goals set forth in the report were better focusing the conservation and recreation efforts of the federal government by creating and enhancing urban parks and green spaces, renewing and restoring rivers, and conserving large, rural landscapes.

“The America’s Great Outdoors Initiative turns the conventional wisdom about the federal government’s role in conservation on its head,” Salazar said. “Rather than dictate policies or conservation strategies from Washington, it supports grassroots, locally driven initiatives.”

To view the full report, see below or click here.

To download a PDF of the report, click here.

To view a map of the projects announced, click here.

For more information on the President’s America’s Great Outdoors initiative, click here.

Here’s the description of the Rocky Mountain Greenway project in Colorado from the report:

As a result of decades of private, local, state, and federal investment, significant areas of open land are now protected and available for public use in and around the Denver metropolitan area. This investment includes establishment of 40,000 acres of parks and open space, creation of over 140 miles of trails, and completion of water quality and recreation improvements within the Denver metro greenway system. There has been significant federal, state, and local investment in the cleanup and restoration of the Rocky Flats and Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuges, as well as private and public investment in the creation of Confluence and Commons parks in the Central Platte Valley in Denver. An investment of $100 million in these environmental and recreational improvements has created an estimated $10 billion of related economic benefits.

To maximize the benefit of these disparate assets, federal, state, and local partners want to create links to creeks, river corridors, and local, state, and federal parks and open space areas. The state and DOI are joining forces to create a “Rocky Mountain Greenway”—a system of uninterrupted trails linking the three national wildlife refuges in the metro region (Rocky Mountain Arsenal NWR, Two Ponds NWR, and Rocky Flats NWR) and other trail systems in the Denver Metro Region. The NPS also will explore creating connections from Rocky Mountain National Park to the Denver metro area.

Potential Action: Provide technical and financial support to connect the three national wildlife refuges in the metro region. Provide financial assistance for water quality and riparian habitat improvements and for work to extend trails and open space along the South Platte River and Sand Creek Greenway.

Partners: FWS, NPS, State of Colorado, local governments, and nonprofit and private sector partners.

Here’s the description of the Yampa River Basin project from the report:

The Yampa River Basin in northwestern Colorado is one of the most hydrologically and biologically intact watersheds in the West. As the largest naturally flowing river in Colorado, the Yampa hosts high-quality recreational experiences for boaters and fisherman. It provides roosting and nesting habitat for the sandhill crane, blue heron, and bald eagle. The river is also vital winter habitat for Colorado’s second largest elk herd, and large deer herds, making the area a world-class hunting destination.

Good stewardship and conservation of these lands and waters—both public and private—is critical to ensuring strong local economies built around ranching, wildlife, and recreation that contribute greatly to the economic and ecological health of the state of Colorado and the Colorado River basin as a whole. Two recent successes in the area include 61,485 acres of private land on 131 different properties that have been placed under conservation easement and extensive public and private investment in the Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program. The creation of the Yampa River State Park, the reconstruction of important buildings at Dinosaur National Monument, and recreation improvements at Elkhead Reservoir are the first of many steps that will help spur tourism, recreation, jobs, and greater public use, all goals of AGO. The stronger and better coordination among governments at all levels and local communities afforded by AGO will help leverage current resources to increase the pace and scale of future accomplishments, including voluntary conservation of working agriculture lands, invest- ment in forest management and wildlife corridors, and support for a diverse and sustainable outdoor recreation economy.

Potential action: Support the acquisition of conservation easements from willing sellers. Increase efforts to control invasive vegetation that seriously threatens important river val- ues, and work at the headwaters of the river to conserve and promote important fisheries.

Partners: BLM, FWS, NPS, State of Colorado, county and local governments, land conservation groups, veterans organizations, and youth corps.

More coverage from Wendy Koch writing for USA Today. From the article:

To reconnect Americans to nature, the Obama administration is promoting 100 projects nationwide — two in each states — such as new urban parks, wildlife refuges and walking trails as well as completing gaps in Wisconsin’s Ice Age Trail and restoring the Bronx’ Harlem River.

The projects are part of President Obama’s Great Outdoors Initiative, announced last year, and result from 50 meetings between state leaders and senior federal officials. They won’t receive new federal funding but technical support and guidance.

Here’s the release from Colorado State University (Emily Narvaes Wilmsen):

Tom Brown of the USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station and his team, Colorado State University Professor Jorge Ramirez and recent CSU graduate Romano Foti, received recognition by Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper as Designated Finalists in CO-LABS 2011 Governor’s Award for High Impact Research awards for their research, “Quantifying the Current and Future Vulnerability of the United States Water Supply System.”

Brown is the lead Water Resources Scientist for the U.S. Forest Service Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) 2010 update. For the last 15 years, he has been researching, evaluating, and modeling water supply and demand. Ramirez and Foti were both key partners in this research.

This research assesses the current and future vulnerability of our nation’s water supply system and models projected changes in vulnerability using three climate models with several emission scenarios. One key finding shows that future increases in the vulnerability of the U.S. water supply to shortage will depend more on changes in supply than on growth in water demand. This research maps out the demand for, and supply of, water in the contiguous U.S. today and into the future and will be a foundation for water management policy decisions. The publication of this study is anticipated in spring 2012.

“The research conducted by Brown and his team is exemplary of the Station’s mission to ‘develop and deliver knowledge and innovative technology to improve the health and use of the nation’s forests and rangelands’,” said Sam Foster, Rocky Mountain Research Station Director.

Colorado State is known internationally for its water expertise with about 150 scientists in all eight colleges dedicated to some aspect of water research. The university is also home to the Colorado Water Institute, a state-funded institution that exists to assist agencies and state residents with evolving water concerns. Ramirez, a Colorado State professor of civil and environmental engineering, leads the I-WATER (Integrated Water, Atmosphere, Ecosystems Education and Research) program, a $2.75 million research and education program funded by the National Science Foundation to train the next generation of water scientists. He teaches courses in hydrologic science and engineering and does research on eco-hydrology, land surface atmosphere interactions, sustainability and integrated vulnerability analysis of water and environmental systems, regional evapotranspiration trends and climate change, and the impacts of climate variability on hydrologic processes.

The RMRS is one of seven regional units that make up the U.S. Forest Service Research and Development organization – the most extensive natural resources research organization in the world. The Station maintains 12 field laboratories throughout a 12-state territory encompassing the Great Basin, Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and parts of the Great Basin, and administers and conducts research on 14 experimental forests, ranges, and watersheds, while maintaining long-term databases for these areas. To find out more about the RMRS go to http://www.fs.fed.us/rmrs.

The CO-LABS organization is a non-profit that informs the public about the breakthroughs and impacts from the 24 federal labs in Colorado. The annual awards for “High Impact Research” acknowledge Colorado-based research centers for breakthroughs in atmospheric science, renewable energy, sustainability and disease prevention. For more information about CO-LABS and the 2011 Governor’s Awards for High Impact Research go to www.co-labs.org.

More climate change coverage here and here.

Here’s the release from the RCAC:

RCAC provides low interest loans to lower income rural residents in Colorado and Utah to construct, refurbish or replace their household water well system. Applicants must own and occupy the home being improved or be purchasing the home. New home construction and community water systems are not eligible.

Please send the complete loan application package with original signature to:

Josh Griff
Rural Community Assistance Corporation
501 S. Cherry St., Ste. 400
Denver, CO 80246

If you have any questions as you work through the process, please do not hesitate to contact Josh at 720/898-9463.

Click through to the website for the link for loan applications.

More infrastructure coverage here.

It’s that time of year again when water suppliers and irrigators keep one eye on the sky (and the NRCS snowpack reports). Click on the thumbnail graphic to the right for the October 31 snowpack chart from the NRCS. It’s too early to forecast the entire season.

May your water rights always be in priority during the year.