Here’s a report from Bob Berwyn writing for the Summit County Citizens Voice. Click through for the cool graphic of possible monsoon scenarios. Here’s an excerpt:
The larger Pacific weather patterns are in a transitional phase. With winter’s La Niña officially over, it’s unclear if and how quickly an El Niño might form, or whether neutral conditions will persist over the Pacific for the next few months…
Some forecasters have suggested that a quick shift to a strong El Niño could bring better chances for a solid monsoon season to Colorado, but forecasting skills for the summer rains are not completely reliable. Monsoon moisture generally arrives in Colorado in mid-July, rotating clockwise around an area of high pressure to the south and east of the state, but the exact trajectory of that flow is hard to pinpoint in advance.
National Weather Service forecasters in Boulder say that post-La Niña monsoons often shift farther west, delivering the best moisture over Arizona and Nevada.