Winter forecast news: ‘It’s vexing … the models are just not up to the task’ — Klaus Wolter


From the Summit County Citizens Voice (Bob Berwyn):

A somewhat murky El Niño outlook is clouding the picture, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific ranging above average, but cooling down from just a month ago. “It’s vexing … the models are just not up to the task,” Wolter said. Overall, he said he’s “guardedly optimistic” that Colorado will see at least close to an average snowfall year, which would would be critical to maintaining water supplies in the state’s depleted reservoirs.

Based on the current pattern and comparison with analogous situations in previous years, Wolter said he wouldn’t be completely surprised to see some decent moisture in October, though conditions look dry through the first half of the month…

Wolter said he’s not ready to write off this year’s El Niño completely yet, even though the Climate Prediction Center said in its Oct. 4 update that the trends toward El Niño slowed in September. Overall, Pacific basin conditions reflect borderline neutral conditions.

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