Dr. Connie Woodhouse – Runoff Efficiency: The Impact of Warming Temperatures on #ColoradoRiver #Drought #COriver

San Juan National Forest Announces Release of the Final Hermosa Creek Watershed Management Plan

Here’s the release from the San Juan National Forest:

The San Juan National Forest has released the Final Hermosa Creek Watershed Management Plan. This is the “go-to” document for how the Hermosa Special Management Area and Wilderness will be managed. This document is different from the Environmental Analysis because it combines the proposed action with recently-signed decisions. It does not contain alternatives that were not chosen or much background information or rationale, which can be found in the EA.

Two travel-themed maps are posted showing new rules for motorized and mechanized (bicycle) uses in the Hermosa Creek watershed. The maps and Final Plan are available in the “Post-Decision” tab on the webpage: https://www.fs.usda.gov/project/?project=43010

For additional information, please contact the Columbine Ranger District at 970-884-2512.

@ColoradoClimate: Weekly Climate, Water and #Drought Assessment of the Intermountain West

Click here to read the current assessment. Click here to go to the NIDIS website hosted by the Colorado Climate Center.

The temperature in Siberia rose 100 degrees. The northern U.S. may pay a frigid price.

The GFS model shows a huge high pressure zone over eastern Russia/Siberia, resulting in milder-than-normal conditions. (WeatherBell.com)

From The Washington Post (Jason Samenow):

As an antidote to the report of minus-88 degree weather in the Siberian outpost of Oymyakon earlier this month, we give you this: The temperature in a settlement just to its east was an astonishing 126 degrees warmer two weeks later.

The mercury in Omolon, Russia, reached its highest January temperature ever recorded Monday: a relatively toasty 38.4 degrees.

But the warmth flooding east Siberia and parts of the Arctic may, in turn, displace the frigid air that is normally pooled there sending it surging south into the north central and Northeastern U.S. through mid-February.

What’s causing the Siberian warm spell?

The mild weather over east Siberia can be traced to the development of an enormous, bulging zone of high pressure over eastern Russia (see top image). Mashable science editor Andrew Freedman called it “one heckuva monster” on Twitter.

Underneath this high pressure zone, models show temperature differences from normal exceeding 50 degrees over a broad area. Weather.US meteorologist Ryan Maue tweeted that these temperature anomalies are “off the charts.”

Temperature difference from normal simulated by the GFS model on Tuesday over eastern Russia and western Alaska. (WeatherBell.com)

The Arctic seas, surrounding this region, including the East Siberia, Bering and Chukchi have historically low amounts of ice, which is likely intensifying this warm pattern.

The decline in Arctic sea ice has also been linked to similar temperature spikes observed near the North Pole in recent years, when temperatures have surged to the melting point on repeated occasions even in the midst of winter.

A study in the journal Nature concluded the loss of sea ice “is making it easier” for weather systems to transport heat poleward.

#Snowpack news: Aspinall Unit operations update — 650 CFS in the Black Canyon

Looking downstream from Chasm View, Painted Wall on right. Photo credit: NPS\Lisa Lynch

From email from Reclamation (Erik Knight):

Releases from the Aspinall Unit will be decreased by 100 cfs on Thursday, February 1st. Releases are being decreased in response to the very dry conditions and forecast for low spring runoff. Currently snowpack in the Upper Gunnison Basin is at 64% of normal. The latest runoff volume forecast for Blue Mesa Reservoir projects 420,000 AF of inflow between April and July, which is 62% of average.

Flows in the lower Gunnison River are currently above the baseflow target of 1050 cfs. River flows are expected to stay above the baseflow target for the foreseeable future.

Pursuant to the Aspinall Unit Operations Record of Decision (ROD), the baseflow target in the lower Gunnison River, as measured at the Whitewater gage, is 1050 cfs for January through March.

Currently, diversions into the Gunnison Tunnel are at 0 cfs and flows in the Gunnison River through the Black Canyon are around 750 cfs. After this release change Gunnison Tunnel diversions will still be at 0 cfs and flows in the Gunnison River through the Black Canyon will be around 650 cfs. Current flow information is obtained from provisional data that may undergo revision subsequent to review.

#Colorado Communities Symposium Day 1 recap #CoCommunities

From the Associated Press (Dan Elliott) The Aurora Sentinel:

Colorado has released an update of its state climate plan that includes additional steps to limit greenhouse gases and to prepare for potential impacts from global warming.

Gov. John Hickenlooper announced the update Wednesday at a symposium on clean energy and climate change.

The revision calls for a new rule on reporting on greenhouse gas emissions that mirrors a federal rule, working with utilities to increase the use of renewable energy and building more charging stations for electric vehicles.

It also calls for research into links between climate change and insect-born diseases and heat-related illnesses.

The update proposes that climate variability be included in statewide water planning and using forest management practices that reduce wildfires, improve wildlife habitat and capture and store carbon that might otherwise be released into the atmosphere.

From The Colorado Springs Gazette (Liz Forster):

Gov. John Hickenlooper rolled out the latest update of his climate blueprint for the state Wednesday at the first Colorado Communities Symposium, calling on nearly 400 local and state officials, businesses and nonprofit leaders in attendance to act to build an attractive brand for Colorado…

The plan highlights eight main areas – water, public health, greenhouse gas emissions, energy, transportation, agriculture, tourism and recreation, and ecosystems – as focal points for bolstering climate resilience and adaptivity.

Hickenlooper demanded leaders act with urgency, not only for the health of the environment but for the strength of Colorado’s economy. “The faster we move, the more it is to our benefit,” he said.

He mentioned the proposal to shut down two coal-fired power plants in Pueblo owned by Xcel Energy. The move would reduce air pollutants without a cost increase to Xcel customers in Pueblo, he and David Eves, the president of Xcel Energy Colorado, said.

And although it initially would displace 85 jobs at the plants, Xcel is exploring opportunities to open a solar project at the county’s steel mill facility to provide jobs and clean energy to the Pueblo County community, Eves said.

The symposium was born out of the governor’s executive order on climate change issued in July, which set emission reduction goals for the state, among other steps. Participants echoed Hickenlooper’s call for swift action, saying the state needs to move at the pace of technological development and in the direction of economic trends…

A hot topic at the symposium and across the state is transportation. With talk of electric vehicle expansion, autonomous public transit and a Hyperloop train between Cheyenne, Wyo., and Pueblo, Colorado policymakers and business owners are building partnerships to ensure that every pocket of the state benefits from such innovations.

The next two days of the symposium will be spent formulating concrete methods to tackle these challenges and propel Colorado forward as a leader in business, tourism and sustainability.

Although Colorado Springs City Council members, Mayor John Suthers and El Paso County commissioners are not in attendance, Colorado Springs Utilities and members of the Manitou Springs government are representing the county’s interests at the symposium.

#Drought news: #Colorado topsoil moisture short to very short = 59%

Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:


A weak ridge in the upper atmosphere tried to assert itself over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week, but Pacific storm systems moved through it in a stronger westerly flow. The ridge weakened the Pacific systems, limiting their precipitation to coastal areas from northern California to Washington, where 4 to locally 10+ inches of precipitation fell; the upslope portions of the Sierra in northern California, where mostly 2 inches or less precipitation was observed; and across the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies, where precipitation amounts ranged from 2-4 inches in the north to less than a tenth of an inch in the south. Most of the interior basin, 4 Corners States, and southern California received no precipitation. The Pacific lows and cold fronts were dried out as they crossed the Rockies, leaving the Great Plains and Upper Midwest with little to no precipitation. They picked up Gulf of Mexico moisture as they crossed the Mississippi River Valley, dropping 2 or more inches of rain in the wetter areas from southeastern Texas to Southern New England. Half an inch or more of precipitation occurred from the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to the East Coast. In spite of these areas receiving precipitation, the week was wetter than normal only along the northern California to Washington coast, the northern parts of the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Gulf Coast, East Coast, and Mid-Appalachia. The rest of the CONUS was much drier than normal. Most of the CONUS was warmer than normal, with temperature departures as much as 10 degrees above normal in the Pacific Northwest and Midwest. The dryness this week was a continuation of severely dry conditions which have persisted for the last 3 to 4 months across much of the Southwest to southern Plains. Contraction of drought and abnormal dryness occurred in parts of the South to Mid-Atlantic where the heaviest rains fell, but drought expansion was the rule across the rest of the CONUS…

High Plains

This was a dry week across the High Plains region. Parts of Colorado and South Dakota received up to a fourth of an inch of precipitation, but nothing fell across most of the region. D1 crept a little to the east along the Canadian border in northeastern North Dakota. D1-D2 expanded in Kansas, where wells were drying up, creeks and springs were going dry, and ponds were near 2012 drought levels, especially in the central part of the state. According to end-of-January USDA reports, 79% of the topsoil in Kansas was rated short to very short of moisture (dry to very dry) and 44% of the winter wheat crop was in poor to very poor condition. In South Dakota, 64% of the topsoil moisture was short to very short, and in Colorado that statistic was 59%. Improvement was made in Nebraska, however, with D0 contracting in the central part of the state due to new data and a re-evaluation of the precipitation that fell last week…


With dry weather dominating the West this week and much of the last six or more months, D0 was expanded from California and Nevada northward across the Great Basin to Oregon and southern Idaho. Outside of the Pacific Northwest, impacts from drought were common across the West. As reported by the Nevada State Climatologist, dry conditions in northwest and eastern Nevada were impacting area ranchers. As reported to the National Weather Service, in southern Arizona ranchers were already starting (or preparing) to haul water for livestock as ponds were drying up. This is more typical of spring than mid-winter. Reports from drought wells in the southeast part of the state show declines more rapid than experts have ever seen down there, although some of the decline may be due to increased demand as ponds are drying up. CoCoRaHS condition reports included no forage for livestock on the hillsides in southern Arizona, and ranchers were hauling water for livestock in Gila County. Mountain snowpack was abysmally low, reaching record low levels for this time of year in parts of New Mexico and Colorado. Temperatures during the last three months have been well above average for much of the Southwest, including California, and this has increased evaporative demand which tends to dry out vegetation, soils, and water resources faster than under normal temperature conditions. The increased evaporation, combined with low precipitation, has helped expand drought in the Southwest. D1-D2 expanded in New Mexico and Utah, D1 protruded further into eastern Nevada, D2 grew in Arizona, and spots of D3 were added to Arizona.

With water resources so heavily managed, California is able to weather droughts reasonably well. Severe meteorological dryness can impact landscape and rangeland conditions while water supply conditions may be much better off. This makes it difficult to assess drought impacts. While some reservoirs (such as Diamond Valley in Riverside County) are nearly full, the D1 in southern California was expanded more to reflect long-term deficits and ties in to the growing risk of wildfires. Low mountain snowpack and water-year-to-date (October 1, 2017 to present) precipitation values prompted expansion of D0 expansion in northern California. According to the California State Climatologist, an 8-station index used for northern California monitoring registered right at D0 levels of dryness. D2 was added to southern California to reflect long-term precipitation deficits in Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties…

Looking Ahead

In the 2 days since the Tuesday morning cutoff time of this week’s USDM, light precipitation has fallen across the northern tier states while the southern CONUS has been dry. For February 1-6, a ridge will set up over the western U.S., blocking storm systems and bringing warmer-than-normal temperatures, while a trough will dominate the East with colder-than-normal air masses. No precipitation is in the forecast for the Southwest to southern Plains. Pacific systems tracking across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies are predicted to drop half an inch of precipitation with over 3 inches in favored high elevation locations. The systems will dry out as they cross the Rockies, dropping up to half an inch of precipitation across the northern Plains to Great Lakes. The fronts and surface lows will pick up Gulf of Mexico moisture as they travel into the eastern trough, bringing half an inch to an inch of precipitation from eastern Texas to the East Coast, with up to 2 inches expected from northeastern Mississippi to southern West Virginia. The ridge/trough pattern is expected to persist into February 7-14, continuing warmer-than-normal temperatures for the West and southern Alaska, and cooler-than-normal temperatures for the northern and central Plains to East Coast. Odds favor below-normal precipitation beneath the ridge across the West and into the central Plains. The February 7-14 period is expected to begin wetter than normal for the northern Plains to Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic to Northeast regions, but turn drier than normal for the latter part of the period. Odds favor above-normal precipitation in southern Alaska and below-normal precipitation in northern Alaska during this period.

From The Pagosa Sun (Chris Mannara):

The southwest region is classi- fied as D2, which is also known as severe drought.

The entire eastern portion of the state of Colorado has been catego- rized as D1, or moderate drought.

The northern portion of Colo- rado is categorized as D0, or ab- normally dry.

As of Wednesday, local snow- pack for the area containing the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins stood at 37 percent of the Jan. 31 median, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resource Conversation Service (NRCS).

The Wolf Creek summit sat at 41 percent of median as of Wednesday.

According to information from the USDA NRCS website, “The Snow Water Equivalent percent of Median represents the current snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the Median value for those sites on this day.”

The Upper San Juan Basin sat at 28 percent of median.

Comparatively, the Gunnison River Basin sat at 49 percent of median.

Local snowpack, however, is not the lowest in the state, with the the Upper Rio Grande Basin at 36 percent of median.

#ClimateChange is Water Change: Wednesday, February 7, 2018

(Scroll down for Coyote Gulch posts.)

This event is cancelled. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Smiley Library, Denver, Colorado. Photo credit courthouselover via Flickr.

Please consider attending my presentation, “Climate Change is Water Change,” Wednesday in Denver. We’ll consider the three questions: Should we act on Climate Change; Can we act on Climate Change; and, Will we Act on Climate Change?

Where: Smiley Branch Library, 4501 W 46th Ave, Denver, Colorado 80212
When: Wednesday, February 7, 2018, 6:00 – 7:00 PM

The presentation is part of the Climate Reality Project.