December #Climate Forecast Discussion for Jan-Mar through Apr-Jun 2021 — IRI

From the International Research Institute for Climate and Society:

The SST forecast is for La Nina conditions to continue through boreal winter, weakening through the spring and early summer. The eastern Indian Ocean is presently warm but is forecast to relax towards climatological temperatures in the spring.

Precipitation forecasts for the coming season are consistent with expected La Niña teleconnections: In Jan-Mar, strongly enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation are forecast for northwest Mexico and the Southern US, and moderately enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation are forecast in Southwest Asia. The probabilities in Mexico, the US, and southwest Asia all persist through Apr-Jun; In Apr-Jun enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation are forecast for Chile and southern India.

Enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation are forecast for northern South America and Central America, the Philippines, parts of the Maritime Continent, northwest US, and western Australia. Probabilities of above normal precipitation persist in northern South America through Feb-Apr and in the Philippines through Apr-Jun. In Apr-Jun an enhanced probability of above normal precipitation is forecast to northeast India and southeast Asia.

A strongly enhanced probability of above normal temperatures accompanies the probability of below normal precipitation in the Southwest United States from Jan-Mar through Apr-Jun. In Jan-Mar there is also an enhanced probability of above normal temperatures in central Russia.

An enhanced probability of below normal temperatures is forecast for the U.S. Midwest for Jan-Mar, for Alaska, western Canada, Greenland, and northern South America from Jan-Mar to Mar-May.

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