Forecast news: Stormy week ahead #COdrought #COwx

From The Denver Post (Joey Bunch):

The National Weather Service said Sunday, “The weakly organized and slow-moving upper level storm system will take most of the upcoming week to move across Colorado.” Denver has a 30 percent chance of afternoon showers Monday, with midweek offering the best opportunity for rain in the metro region, when chances are 50 percent both Wednesday and Wednesday night. The region should see cooler-than-average highs near 60 each day, forecasters said. Rain is expected to begin in the mountains Monday afternoon and spread across the plains by the end of the week. Areas above 8,500 could get snow at times, according to the forecast.

From the National Weather Service Grand Junction office:

Moisture will continue to increase across the area in the southwest flow ahead of an area of low pressure situated off the northern California coast. A disturbance ejecting out in front of the low pressure system will generate more widespread showers and thunderstorms among both mountains and valleys today. The area of low pressure will slowly move eastward across the Great Basin tomorrow and near the Four Corners region on Wednesday. More instability and forcing coupled with some surface heating from the sun will allow storms to be greater in coverage and intensity Wednesday into Thursday. This unsettled weather will linger through Saturday, before the low finally moves out of the area. Expect showers and storms each day this week with cooler temperatures near to a few degrees below normal.

Snowpack/drought news: Late season storms boost prospects for angling in South Park #COdrought

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“What an April we had,” Don Ament said to me Friday evening. The former Colorado Secretary of Agriculture was smiling big when we talked about April precipitation in Colorado.

Click on the thumbnail graphics for the current statewide snowpack map and the current statewide basin high/low graph from the Natural Resources Conservation Service along with the April 1-28 precipitation map for the Upper Colorado Basin from the Colorado Climate Center. It’s apparent that the melt out has started. Percent of average snowpack is less meaningful once the snowpack starts melting out but nonetheless the April snowfall was welcome.

From The Denver Post (Scott Willoughby):

Not to say that Colorado is in the clear when it comes to drought conditions, but the bountiful snows of April have made a major impact on several drought-stricken drainages. And that makes for some sweet relief among anglers focused on Park County’s most popular fishing holes. Just more than a month after Denver Water announced it would be draining the fabled fishery of Antero Reservoir for drought mitigation beginning May 1, water managers pulled the plug on the plan and announced last week that the reservoir atop the South Platte River chain will remain open to recreational fishermen for the foreseeable future…

South Park fishermen had been facing a brutal one-two punch as the larger Spinney Mountain Reservoir near Hartsel, just downstream from Antero, also has fallen victim of drought to the point that water levels are not expected to reach boat ramps this spring. While Spinney Mountain State Park opened to shore fishermen and hand-launched boats last Monday, the outlook on ramp use for trailer launches remains grim for the time being. Even though snowpack within the South Platte River basin broached 100 percent of average late last week, park managers say it will take much more continued moisture to start filling the depleted Park County reservoir again…

The brightest star on the South Park map is nearby Eleven Mile Reservoir, which is near full water capacity and opened to boating after the ice disappeared last Tuesday. Dedicated fisherman Greg Sheldon offered evidence of Eleven Mile at its prime with a boast of three trout over 25 inches in a single day last week. The largest, Sheldon said, was estimated at 30 inches long and 12 pounds.

From the Fort Collins Coloradoan (Bobby Magill):

The snow was so good that the water levels in Larimer County’s snowpack piled up to normal last week for the first time since spring 2011. The moisture the region has received since the beginning of April will prevent many farmers from having to irrigate at the beginning of the growing season, and it’ll postpone many of the water shortage worries that preoccupied growers early this year when the notion that 2012’s devastating drought might persist in its most severe form for another year…

Everyone who’s anyone in Northern Colorado’s water community is hedging bets on what all the moisture the region has received lately really means for the growing season, the wildfire season and the lawn-watering season in Northern Colorado. Northern Water, the water district that oversees the water the city of Fort Collins receives from the Colorado River via Horsetooth Reservoir, decided Thursday to hold off on updating its April 12 decision to give its member cities only 60 percent of the Colorado River water they’re entitled to each year. The reason is simple: Even with all the snow we have right now, the reservoirs on the west side of Rocky Mountain National Park — think of them as buckets of water in a savings account — aren’t expected to fill up this spring as the snow melts. Northern Water has to make sure there’s enough water saved up in those buckets to ensure farmers, Fort Collins and other cities have enough water if severe drought returns again soon…

But the good news is that, unlike last year when the snow disappeared quickly in the March and April heat, the snowpack this year has taken its time to begin melting. The longer it remains, the longer the spring runoff period and the better the ability for reservoirs to fill naturally, Colorado State Climatologist Nolan Doesken said. “It’s just a great way to quiet the drought,” he said…

“Full recovery from a drought takes some time,” said Joe Duda, interim director of the Colorado State Forest Service. Time to moisten the soil. Time to fill the reservoirs. Time to replenish aquifers. Time to get long-dormant mountain springs flowing again. “After a longer extended drought, one year doesn’t recover you from that,” Duda said. “You need several years so you not only get surface structures fully recharged, but you get that ground moisture up where it’s appropriate and adequate.”

It has been only a few months since the weather turned cooler and wetter than 2012, and all the fruits of such meteorological avarice could evaporate with only a few weeks of hot, dry weather…

Here’s how the two years compare: March and April 2012 saw 32 days of temperatures 65 degrees or higher in the Larimer County foothills; 15 of those days were warmer than 70 degrees, Mathewson said. During March and April 2013, the same area saw only eight days that were 65 degrees or warmer, four of which were above 70.

From the Albuquerque Journal (John Fleck):

The San Juan-Chama project, which imports water from the mountains of Colorado for use in New Mexico’s most populous cities, is likely to see shortfalls in one of every six years by the 2020s, and four out of every 10 years by the end of the century, according to researchers at Sandia National Laboratories and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

The study comes as federal officials are warning that for the first time in the project’s 40-year history, the San Juan-Chama project may not deliver a full water supply in 2014. Whether the current shortage is a result of climate change or natural variability is uncertain, but this year’s shortfall could be “a harbinger of things to come,” the study’s authors wrote…

The federal project diverts water from the mountains of southern Colorado through a series of tunnels beneath the Continental Divide. It allows New Mexico’s populated central valley to use some of New Mexico’s share of the waters of the Colorado River Basin.

From The Colorado Springs Gazette (Monica Mendoza):

One billion gallons of water is no drop in the bucket. That amount of water could fill 1,515 Olympic-style swimming pools. And it is the amount Colorado Springs residents saved in April compared to water use in April 2012. It’s double the amount Colorado Springs Utilities managers hoped would be saved after instituting lawn watering restrictions for the first time since 2005. No doubt Mother Nature helped launch the conservation effort. April brought some precipitation to the city, although it was below average. On average, temperatures were 43 degrees, according to the National Weather Service, compared to last April when temperatures were 59 degrees.

From the Associated Press via The Denver Post:

The drought that ravaged large sections of the Midwest and Great Plains is over, disappearing this spring in a dramatic weather reversal: heavy rains and floods swamping fields with mud in many areas. But some farmers and ranchers in parts of the West and the plains, including southwest Oklahoma, are pondering the prospect of another year of a desert-like landscape and a disappointing harvest.

NASA Opens New Era in Measuring Western U.S. Snowpack

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Here’s the release from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA):

A new NASA airborne mission has created the first maps of the entire snowpack of two major mountain watersheds in California and Colorado, producing the most accurate measurements to date of how much water they hold.

The data from NASA’s Airborne Snow Observatory mission will be used to estimate how much water will flow out of the basins when the snow melts. The data-gathering technology could improve water management for 1.5 billion people worldwide who rely on snowmelt for their water supply.

“The Airborne Snow Observatory is on the cutting edge of snow remote-sensing science,” said Jared Entin, a program manager in the Earth Science Division at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “Decision makers like power companies and water managers now are receiving these data, which may have immediate economic benefits.”

The mission is a collaboration between NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., and the California Department of Water Resources in Sacramento.

A Twin Otter aircraft carrying NASA’s Airborne Snow Observatory began a three-year demonstration mission in April that includes weekly flights over the Tuolumne River Basin in California’s Sierra Nevada and monthly flights over Colorado’s Uncompahgre River Basin. The flights will run through the end of the snowmelt season, which typically occurs in July. The Tuolumne watershed and its Hetch Hetchy Reservoir are the primary water supply for San Francisco. The Uncompahgre watershed is part of the Upper Colorado River Basin that supplies water to much of the western United States.

The mission’s principal investigator, Tom Painter of JPL, said the mission fills a critical need in an increasingly thirsty world, initially focusing on the western United States, where snowmelt provides more than 75 percent of the total freshwater supply.

“Changes in and pressure on snowmelt-dependent water systems are motivating water managers, governments and others to improve understanding of snow and its melt,” Painter said. “The western United States and other regions face significant water resource challenges because of population growth and faster melt and runoff of snowpacks caused by climate change. NASA’s Airborne Snow Observatory combines the best available technologies to provide precise, timely information for assessing snowpack volume and melt.”

The observatory’s two instruments measure two properties most critical to understanding snowmelt runoff and timing. Those two properties had been mostly unmeasured until now.

A scanning lidar system from the Canadian firm Optech Inc. of Vaughan, Ontario, measures snow depth with lasers to determine the first property, snow water equivalent. Snow water equivalent represents the amount of water in the snow on a mountain. It is used to calculate the amount of water that will run off.

An imaging spectrometer built by another Canadian concern, ITRES of Calgary, Alberta, measures the second property, snow albedo. Snow albedo represents the amount of sunlight reflected and absorbed by snow. Snow albedo controls the speed of snowmelt and timing of its runoff.

By combining these data, scientists can tell how changes in the absorption of sunlight cause snowmelt rates to increase.

The Airborne Snow Observatory flies at an altitude of 17,500 to 22,000 feet (5,334 to 6,705 meters) to produce frequent maps that scientists can use to monitor changes over time. It can calculate snow depth to within about 4 inches (10 centimeters) and snow water equivalent to within five percent. Data are processed on the ground and made available to participating water managers within 24 hours.

Before now, Sierra Nevada snow water equivalent estimates have been extrapolated from monthly manual ground snow surveys conducted from January through April. These survey sites are sparsely located, primarily in lower to middle elevations that melt free of snow each spring, while snow remains at higher elevations. Water managers use these survey data to forecast annual water supplies. The information affects decisions by local water districts, agricultural interests and others. The sparse sampling can lead to large errors. In contrast, the NASA observatory can map all the snow throughout the entire snowmelt season.

“The Airborne Snow Observatory is providing California water managers the first near-real-time, comprehensive determination of basin-wide snow water equivalent,” said Frank Gehrke, mission co-investigator and chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the California Department of Water Resources. “Integrated into models, these data will enhance the state’s reservoir operations, permitting more efficient flood control, water supply management and hydroelectric power generation.” Gehrke said the state will continue to conduct manual surveys while it incorporates the Airborne Snow Observatory data. “The snow surveys are relatively inexpensive, help validate observatory data and provide snow density measurements that are key to reducing errors in estimating snow water equivalent,” he said.

Painter plans to expand the airborne mapping program to the entire Upper Colorado River Basin and Sierra Nevada.

“We believe this is the future of water management in the western United States,” he said.

More coverage from The Denver Post.

The US House of Representatives is gearing up to work on the long-awaited farm bill

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Here’s how US Representative Cory Gardner sees things (via email):

This week, I announced that the House will finally consider a long-term farm bill this summer. Our nation’s farmers and ranchers rely on the farm bill to set agricultural policy. It is very difficult to plan for the future and make business decisions without having a long-term bill in place. The House needs to take up this legislation without further delay, and give this community the certainty it needs to operate.

Last year, the House Agricultural Committee passed a farm bill, but the legislative session ended before it was ever voted on in the House. The bill would have saved $35 billion in mandatory spending, reformed the Commodity Title by eliminating Direct Payments, Countercyclical Payments, ACRE, and SURE and saved taxpayers $14 billion.