From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):
“The discussion has been, ‘What really happens when you have a dry-up of ag land?’ ’’ said Peter Nichols, water attorney for the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District. “Intuitively, we know that you can’t have nine-tenths of a drug store or three-tenths of an auto store. At some point, they’re not able to remain in business.” A draft report by Honey Creek Resources looked at what happened to Crowley County after water transfers in the 1970s and 1980s decreased irrigated crop land to 7,000 acres from 42,000 acres in order to find a “tipping point” that caused local businesses to close. The study uses the same method of analysis to predict the impact of losing 30,000 acres in the Lamar area, a possible scenario if land sold to Pure Cycle on the Fort Lyon Canal is taken out of production. The study area includes ag lands in eastern Bent and western Prowers counties. The study did not consider additional future losses on the Amity Canal if Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association develops power plants that could take half of the ditch out of production over time.
The Colorado Water Conservation Board funded the study as part of ongoing discussions of the Interbasin Compact Committee, but the research was coordinated with the assistance of the Lower Ark district. Nichols also is an IBCC member. “This is groundbreaking work in the United States and could be applied in other areas with a declining water supply,” Nichols said. “It could also be used to study decline in rural areas for reasons other than water transfers.”
The goal is to develop a model that could apply to water transfers from any rural area, particularly in the Arkansas River basin, where taking the water would leave a hole in the local economy.
More IBCC — Basin Roundtables coverage here.