Click here to read the latest assessment. Here’s an excerpt:
Highlights:
Snowpack conditions have completely turned around after a grim start. A major storm kicked off the new year, and as of January 9 nearly all basins across the region have above-median SWE, with most basins at 120-170% of median. The snowpack across Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming for the date appears to be the 3rd-highest in the past 25 years, after 1997 and 2011. The January 1 NRCS spring-summer runoff forecasts call for near-average to much-above-average runoff across the region, with the highest runoff expected in Utah and western Wyoming. Note that these forecasts do not incorporate the most recent snowfall. Nearly all of the region was wetter than normal in December, with many areas seeing over 200% of normal precipitation. Statewide, Wyoming was in the 96th percentile for precipitation, Colorado was in the 90th percentile, while Utah was in the 88th percentile. There was a strong north-south gradient in temperature anomalies in December, with southern and eastern Utah and western Colorado warmer than normal, while much of Wyoming was 6-12°F below normal for the month. Since early December there has been improvement in drought conditions, mainly from D0 to drought-free, in western Colorado, eastern Utah, and northern Wyoming. The proportion of the region in D1 or D2 conditions has held steady, with 37% of Colorado, 13% of Utah, and 16% of Wyoming. Weak La Niña conditions are persisting, barely, in the tropical Pacific. The ENSO forecast models now more strongly favor a return to ENSO-neutral conditions by late winter/early spring. NOAA CPC seasonal forecasts show a La Niña-esque wet tilt in the odds for Wyoming over the next 3-4 months.