Click here to read the briefing. Here’s an excerpt:
Multiple early-season storms have brought snow to the high country, resulting in much-above-normal SWE for early October in many basins. However, with dry conditions forecasted for the next 7-10 days, it’s not clear that much of this early bounty will persist. August was generally very dry for our region except for several islands of wetter conditions from scattered convective storms. The first half of September was likewise dry, and then a pattern change brought cooler air and more moisture, continuing into early October. September ended up bringing above-normal precipitation to eastern Colorado, central and northern Utah, and nearly all of Wyoming. Dry conditions continued in September for western Colorado and southern Utah. August temperatures were slightly above normal in Utah, and below normal in Colorado and Wyoming. September saw most of Utah and Wyoming with below-normal temperatures, with Colorado above normal. Since early August, there have been only minor changes in drought conditions across the region, with some areas improving and others worsening, according to the US Drought Monitor. As of October 3, there are several small areas of D1 in the region, in northeastern Wyoming, central Utah, and northwestern Colorado. Overall, the 2017 water year was extremely warm and very wet for the region. In all three states, 2017 was among the 10 warmest water years (inc. 3rd warmest for Colorado, 4th warmest for Utah) and the 20 wettest water years (inc. 4th wettest for Wyoming) since 1895. The experimental PSD precipitation forecast guidance for the October-December period shows slightly enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation for northeastern Colorado, while the guidance for January-March shows enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation for northern Utah and southeastern Colorado.