The 11th Annual Survey of Voters in the Rocky Mountain West — State of the Rockies Project

Here’s the release from the State of the Rockies Project at Colorado College (Katrina Miller-Stevens and Jacob Hay):

New Poll Shows Surge in Concern about Nature and Continued Bipartisan Support for Conservation Among Western Voters

11th annual Conservation in the West Poll​ ​reveals policy opportunities for new administration and Congress on public land conservation

Colorado College’s 11th annual State of the Rockies Project Conservation in the West Poll​ released today showed a marked increase in levels of support for conservation, with voters in the Mountain West calling for bold action to protect nature as a new administration and Congress consider their public lands agendas.

The poll, which surveyed the views of voters in eight Mountain West states (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming), found ​61 percent​ of voters are concerned about the future of nature, meaning land, water, air, and wildlife. ​Despite trying economic conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic, the level of concern for things like loss of habitat for fish and wildlife, inadequate water supplies, pollution in the air and water, the loss of pollinators, uncontrollable wildfires, and climate change outpaced the overall level of concern about unemployment.

“We are seeing strong voter concern for nature, which is translating into calls for bold action on public lands in the West,” said Katrina Miller-Stevens​, Director of the State of the Rockies Project and an Assistant Professor at Colorado College​.

“If federal and state policy leaders are looking for direction on public lands, the view from the West is clear.”

Westerners’ heightened concerns about their natural landscapes are matched with strong consensus behind proposals to conserve and protect the country’s outdoors.

77 percent​ support setting a national goal of conserving 30 percent of land and waters in America by the year 2030, which was recently announced in an Executive Order by the new Biden administration.

72 percent​ support making public lands a net-zero source of carbon pollution, meaning that the positive impacts of forests and lands to create clean air are greater than the carbon pollution caused by oil and gas development or mining.

66 percent ​support gradually transitioning to 100 percent of our energy being produced from clean, renewable sources like solar, wind, and hydropower over the next ten to fifteen years.

77 percent​ support restoring national monument protections to lands in the West which contain archaeological and Native American sites, but also have oil, gas, and mineral deposits.

Greater Sandhill Cranes in flight over the San Luis Valley. The annual Monte Vista Crane Festival takes place during March each year. Photo credit: Colorado Parks and Wildlife

84 percent​ support creating new national parks, national monuments, national wildlife refuges, and tribal protected areas to protect historic sites or outdoor recreation areas, in part because ​77 percent​ of voters believe those types of protected public lands help the economy in their state.

91 percent​ of voters in the West agree that despite state budget problems, we should still find money to protect their state’s land, water, and wildlife.

Conservation intersects with equity concerns

The poll broke new ground this year in examining the intersection of race with views on conservation priorities. Results were separated by responses from Black, Latino, and Native American voters, along with combined communities of color findings. The poll included an oversample of Black and Native American voters in the region in order to speak more confidently about the view of those communities.
The poll found notably higher percentages of Black voters, Latino voters, and Native American voters to be concerned about climate change, pollution of rivers, lakes, and streams, and the impact of oil and gas drilling on our land, air, and water. The poll also found higher levels of support within communities of color for bold conservation policies like the 30 percent conservation by 2030 effort, transitioning to one hundred percent renewable energy, and making public lands a net-zero source of carbon pollution.

Furthermore, the poll showed a desire by strong majorities of Western voters for equitable access to public lands and to ensure local communities are heard. ​73​ ​percent​ of voters in the West support directing funding to ensure adequate access to parks and natural areas for lower-income people and communities of color that have disproportionately lacked them. ​83 percent​ of voters in the West support ensuring that Native American tribes have greater input into decisions made about areas within national public lands that contain sites sacred to or culturally important to their tribe.

Concerns over climate and fires are growing and viewed as interconnected

More voters than in the past expressed deep concern over both climate and wildfires. ​51 percent​ of voters in the West say climate change is an extremely or very serious problem in their state, compared to ​27 percent​ when the survey began in 2011 and ​47 percent​ as recently as 2020. Similarly, ​60 percent​ of voters in the West say uncontrollable wildfires that threaten homes and property are an extremely or very serious problem in their state, which is up from ​32 percent​ in 2016 and ​47 percent ​in 2020. ​71 percent​ of voters in the West say wildfires are more of a problem than ten years ago, with ​42 percent​ saying the reason is changes in the climate and ​40 percent​ citing drought.

Sights on a cleaner and safer energy future on public lands

With oil and gas drilling taking place on half of America’s public lands, Western voters are well aware of the harmful impacts and want ​to ensure their public lands are protected and safe. ​91 percent​ of voters support requiring oil and gas companies to use updated equipment and technology to prevent leaks of methane gas and other pollution into the air and ​93 percent support requiring oil and gas companies to pay for all of the clean-up and land restoration costs after drilling is finished.

Asked about what policy makers should place more emphasis on in upcoming decisions around public lands, ​69 percent​ of Western voters pointed to conservation efforts and recreation usage, compared to ​27 percent​ who preferred energy production.
Nearly three-fourths of Western voters want to significantly curb oil and gas development on public lands. ​59 percent ​percent think that oil and gas development should be strictly limited on public lands and another ​14 percent​ say it should be stopped completely. That is compared to 25 percent​ of voters in the West who would like to expand oil and gas development on public lands.

Growing support for water and wildlife protections

The level of concern among Westerners around water and wildlife issues is growing. ​52 percent of voters in the West say loss of habitat for fish and wildlife is an extremely or very serious problem in their state, which represents a sharp increase compared to ​38 percent​ in 2011 and 44 percent​ in 2020. ​63 percent​ of voters in the West believe the loss of pollinators is an extremely or very serious problem. ​54 percent​ of voters in the West also say pollution of rivers, lakes, and streams is an extremely or very serious problem in their state, up from ​42 percent​ in 2011 and ​54 percent​ in 2020.

Those concerns translate into strong support among Western voters for water and wildlife protections:

● 81 percent​ support designating portions of existing public lands where wildlife migrate each year as areas which should not be open to oil and gas drilling.

85 percent ​support restoring Clean Water Act protections for smaller streams and seasonal wetlands.

● 73 percent​ support restoring protections for threatened species under the Endangered Species Act that were removed.

● 67 percent​ support restoring limits on drilling or industrial activities that could negatively impact threatened wildlife on national public lands, such as sage-grouse.

● 94 percent​ support dedicating funding to modernizing older water infrastructure and restoring natural areas that help communities protect sources of drinking water and withstand impacts of drought.

This is the eleventh consecutive year Colorado College has gauged the public’s sentiment on public lands and conservation issues. The 2021 Colorado College ​Conservation in the West Poll is a bipartisan survey conducted by Republican pollster Lori Weigel of New Bridge Strategy and Democratic pollster Dave Metz of Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates.

The poll surveyed at least 400 registered voters in each of eight Western states (AZ, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, UT, & WY) for a total 3,842-voter sample, which included an over-sample of Black and Native American voters. The survey was conducted between January 2-13, 2021 and the effective margin of error is ​+​2.2% at the 95% confidence interval for the total sample; and at most ​+​4.8% for each state. The full survey and individual state surveys are available on the State of the Rockies website​.

UN global #climate poll: ‘The people’s voice is clear – they want action’ — The Guardian

Click to view the video.

From The Guardian (Damian Carrington):

The biggest ever opinion poll on climate change has found two-thirds of people think it is a “global emergency”.

The survey shows people across the world support climate action and gives politicians a clear mandate to take the major action needed, according to the UN organisation that carried out the poll.

The UN Development Programme (UNDP) questioned 1.2 million people in 50 countries, many of them young.

While younger people showed the greatest concern, with 69% of those aged 14-18 saying there is a climate emergency, 58% of those over 60 agreed, suggesting there is not a huge generational divide.

Even when climate action required significant changes in their own country, majorities still backed the measures.

In nations where fossil fuels are a major source of emissions, people strongly supported renewable energy, including the US (65% in favour), Australia (76%) and Russia (51%).

“If 64% of the world’s people are believing in a climate emergency then it helps governments to respond to the climate crisis as an emergency.

“The key message is that, as governments are making these high-stakes decisions, the people are with them.”

Flynn said the survey connects the climate concerns of people, particularly the young, with governments at a time when accelerated action must be agreed, in particular at a UN climate summit in November. The climate crisis continued unabated in 2020, with the joint highest global temperatures on record…

The poll found the highest proportion of people saying there is a climate emergency was in the UK and Italy, both at 81%. Australia was at 72% and the US at 65%, the same as Russia, and India was at 59%. Even the lowest proportion, in Moldova, was 50%…

The reason why more men and boys said there was a climate emergency than women and girls in countries such as Nigeria and Vietnam may be because girls have less access to education in those places.

The poll found that the more education a person had completed, the more likely they were to think there is a climate emergency. Why more women and girls are more concerned in the four English-speaking nations is unclear.

The poll was distributed via advertisements in video games and puzzles, including Angry Birds, Subway Surfers, Sudoku and Words With Friends, and this particularly helped reach younger people.

The idea came to Flynn when she was on the subway in New York City: “I looked around and everyone was on their phones and most were playing games.”

The data was collected between October and December 2020 and, despite the coronavirus pandemic, 59% of the people saying there is a climate emergency also said the world should “do everything necessary and urgently” in response.

A bad year on the #RioGrande: #Climate adaptation in real time — John Fleck #ActOnClimate

From InkStain (John Fleck):

With another abysmal runoff forecast on the Rio Grande, New Mexico is entering a fascinating experiment, playing out in real time, in climate change adaptation.

The latest model runoff forecast, circulated this morning by the folks at NRCS, is for flow of just 59 percent of average where the Rio Grande enters central New Mexico at a place called Otowi. That’s a midpoint forecast, with a big uncertainty range with a couple of months of snow season to go. But even the best case scenario at this point in the model is for below-average flow.

The worst case scenario is awful.

As my UNM colleague Dave Gutzler points out, there’s some really important recognition of the impacts of climate change embedded in these numbers. The snowpack isn’t actually all that bad. But (thanks to many scientists working on this question, but especially Dr. Gutzler and his collaborators here on the Rio Grande) we now understand that we should expect, for a given amount of snow, less water actually ending up in the rivers.

It’s warmer. Plants take up more water, and more evaporates.

What we also see is a sort of policy window opening up. In John Kingdon’s classic work on policy formation (see the indispensable Paul Cairney on this) the political/policy system, with limited capacity to wrestle with all the things before it, ignores lots of stuff until it doesn’t. Attention lurches from thing to thing, and when it lurches in your direction, you’d best be ready. But, importantly, you’ll be much more successful in contributing in that moment if the people doing the lurching already know you’re there. (Dr. Gutzler is a great example of this. He’s been soldiering along for years making himself available to explain this stuff, and doing the research to advance our understanding. Much of my own understanding of climate change came from many hours, during my time as a journalist, sitting in his office in what amounted to a bunch of on-demand graduate seminars.)

On the Rio Grande, one of those lurches is happening, now, in real time.

Consider first the Elephant Butte Irrigation District, on the Rio Grande in southern New Mexico. Per Veronica Martinez in the Las Cruces Sun-News:

“Unless conditions improve in the late fall and winter, we can expect 2021 to be a critically low water supply year for the Rio Grande Project, perhaps the worst in the project history,” Phil King, the district’s water resource consultant, said.”

Meanwhile upstream in the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, the stretch of river where I live, Theresa Davis reports:

“The Office of the State Engineer recommends ‘that farmers along the Rio Chama and in the Middle Valley that don’t absolutely need to farm this year, do not farm,’ according to a staff report that Interstate Stream Commission Director Rolf Schmidt-Petersen presented to the Commission earlier this month.”

Upper Rio Grande River River Basin High/Low graph February 4, 2021 via the NRCS.