Romancing the River: The Era of Conquest 3 — George Sibley (SibleysRivers.com) #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson

Click the link to read the article on the Sibley’s Rivers website (George Sibley):

April 21, 2026

A bad year in the Colorado River Basin โ€“ barring a truly miraculous spring, probably the worst in recorded history. It is bad enough so the Bureau may have to stop creating power from the Glen Canyon powerplant by this coming fall. At that point, the only way to get water downriver from Glen Canyon Dam will be dribbling it through four outlet tubes that the Bureau is now wishing it had built differently (better) 65 years ago. And praying for enough precip to push the level back above the danger point for the turbines.

Meanwhile the negotiations between the seven basin states about the future distribution of the water remained at an impasse. One might think that a really bad year might generate some new thinking, but the two Basins are still debating Compact numbers like 7.5 million acre-feet for the Lower Basin with a river that might produce less than 5 maf this year, and maybe not much more than that more frequently in the future.

It should be obvious by now that any further negotiation between the states needs to have an independent facilitator guiding the discussion, pushing both factions to disassemble their own non-negotiables. A hard-ass facilitator speaking on behalf of river reality. [ed. emphasis mine]

It seems likely that we will go into the 2027 water year this fall with some new โ€˜interim planโ€™ for operating the river system for the water year that begins in October โ€“ probably some mix-and-match from the Bureauโ€™s five alternatives proposed last year and โ€˜EISedโ€™ while the seven states fiddled. The real purpose of the new interim plan will be to keep the infrastructure of the river system viable โ€“ dancing with the dead pool. This will probably impose serious delivery shortages on those below the Powell and Mead Reservoirs (meaning the Lower Basin), and also drop the Upper Basinโ€™s rolling 10-year total closer to the 75 million acre-feet (maf) that will cause the โ€˜compact callโ€™ threat to rear its ugly head.

Year-to-year might be the most honest approach now, anyway, getting a habit of feeling our way forward carefully, with our eyes wide open โ€“ woke, one might say.  The managerial โ€˜need for certaintyโ€™ in projections may not be part of the future weโ€™ve imposed on ourselves.

But thatโ€™s a good place to let the present sit and settle, and go back to the unfolding saga of the โ€˜Era of Conquestโ€™ in this update of Fred Dellenbaughโ€™s Romance of the Colorado River. You may remember that in the last post here, I related that the Bureau of Reclamation, feeling much loved for the Boulder Canyon Project that watered, fed and powered a massive regional development in Southern California, came out of World War II ready to do the same for the Compactโ€™s Upper Basin, in response to a mandate in the Boulder Canyon Project Act that a plan be developed for the development of the rest of the river.

There was, however, already quite a lot of development going on in the Upper Basin โ€“ at least in the state of Colorado, beginning in the 1930s, simultaneous with the Boulder Canyon Project.

Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall

To establish context โ€“ the whole Colorado River Basin was experiencing its first serious modern-times drought, even as the Great Depression was settling over the whole nation. After the โ€˜pluvialโ€™ of water abundance in the first three decades of the 20th century, which convinced the water mavens that the river would deliver a dependable-enough flow of nearly 18 maf, the basin experienced its first 5 maf flow in 1933; by the end of the 1930s, there was reason to doubt that the river would ever again average 18 maf.

But Colorado had a special problem to resolve about Colorado River water distribution: the transdivide situation. I will not bore you again with my opinion of the imperial arrogance in randomly laying down straight line state boundaries in a region of great geographic and geological diversity. But what this created in the irrelevant rectangle called Colorado was like a blanket laid over a fence โ€“ the fence being the Continental Divide. West of the Divide, precipitation that fell (mostly snow in the winter) all ran off toward the Pacific Ocean in the Colorado River tributaries. East of the Divide, it all ran off toward the Atlantic in the Platte, Arkansas and Rio Grande Rivers. Because the weather mostly rode in on the prevailing westerlies, considerably more precipitation fell on the West Slope than fell on the East Slope. But the vagaries of cultural and economic development put most of the population and economic growth on the East Slope โ€“ โ€˜80 percent-20 percentโ€™ is the rough ratio frequently used to describe the imbalance between water and population in the blanket dropped over the fence.

The distribution of water on both sides of the โ€˜blanketโ€™ was governed by the appropriation doctrine as stated in the Colorado Constitution: all the water in the state belongs to the people of the state, subject to appropriation for individual use, and the right to divert โ€˜shall never be deniedโ€™ โ€“ with seniority among users determining the right to use the water in times of shortage. And by the turn of the century, challenges in water court had established the right to divert water from one basin to another.

As the drought of the 1930s settled in, farmers on the East Slope began to experience serious pressures on the water supply. And consistent with the optimism and technological advances of the early 20th century, this was not regarded as a fact of life to be acknowledged and adapted to, but as a problem to be addressed โ€“ in this situation, by moving water from the West Slope. A major task โ€“ but Franklin Rooseveltโ€™s โ€˜New Dealโ€™ efforts to alleviate the Great Depression offered the possibility of some help, through new agencies like the Reconstruction Finance Corporation and the Public Works Administration.

So when the Colorado General Assembly gathered early in 1933, two water project bills were in the hopper: one to divert an unspecified quantity from the Upper Colorado River in the Grand Lake area to the South Platte River basin, and one to divert an unspecified quantity from the Gunnison River to the Arkansas River basin.

Inhabitants of the West Slope, however, knew nothing about this until they read about it in the newspapers. And they were even more surprised that summer when construction actually began on two transdivide projects: the Denver Water Board began constructing a system of small canals high in the Fraser River headwaters (Upper Colorado tributary) to bring water to the Moffat railroad tunnel pilot bore, which the Water Board had leased from the railroad โ€“ an unused but already dug โ€˜pipeโ€™ to the northern Denver area. And the sugar-beet industry led by Great Western Sugar was doing the same collection system in the headwaters of the Roaring Fork River above Aspen for diversion into a small tunnel to the Arkansas River basin. Both of those enterprises were self-funded.

All of this precipitated a regional West Slope meeting in Grand Junction of โ€˜water peopleโ€™ โ€“ county commissioners and attorneys who were also all ranchers or farmers โ€“ at which a โ€˜Western Colorado Protective Associationโ€™ (WCPA) was formed, and a letter was drafted to the state engineer expressing concern that the proposed and in-process projects threatened the future development of the West Slope, and requesting inclusion in all future discussion of them.

The situation as the West Slope people saw it was not a โ€˜water grab.โ€™ The leadership in the WCPA knew that the East Slope irrigators and city-builders were exercising a constitutional right in appropriating โ€˜the peopleโ€™s waterโ€™ on the West Slope. They also knew that most of the Colorado River water left the stateโ€™s West Slope in an unmanageable snowmelt flood anyway, and it might as well go through a tunnel to the Front Range as through Grand Junction and on to โ€“ well, soon, on to enviable storage behind the great dam being built far downstream rather than its historical destiny of flowing on into the salty sea unused.

Storage! That was the key to the West Slopeโ€™s chief water problem, which was water available throughout the growing season for finishing as well as starting crops. West Slope engineers had been drafting up a number of reservoir-and-irrigation projects to present to the Bureau of Reclamation, but dams are expensive, and all of the proposed reservoirs served mountain-valley populations too small to pass the Bureauโ€™s cost-benefit analyses.

So the concept of โ€˜compensatory storageโ€™ for water lost through transdivide diversions became the WCPAโ€™s central focus. And despite their small population, the WCPA had two good cards to play. One was the fact that New Deal federal funding distributed to the states had to be for projects approved by the entire state; the transdivide diversions that needed federal assistance needed for the basin of origin to be as happy as the basin of destination.

A image shows a guest column by Rep. Edward Taylor that appeared from the Steamboat Pilot in 1921. Graphic credit: Northern Water

The other card was a congressional representative, Edward Taylor, whom they had returned to Congress for 12 terms by 1933, and who had over that quarter-century ascended to chairmanship of the subcommittee that controlled the Interior Department budget in the powerful House Appropriation Committee. Congressman Taylor launched the WCPAโ€™s โ€˜defensive offensiveโ€™ by saying that any project seeking federal assistance for a transdivide diversion would have to provide, as part of their project, an acre-foot of compensatory storage for the West Slope for every acre-foot to be diverted.

That was a large and very expensive demand. Taylor exempted Denver and its Moffat project from the mandate โ€“ because, he said, we all want to see โ€˜our capital cityโ€™ grow unrestricted. More likely, he knew that Denver could fund its own project and would at best just ignore him; he was not their congressman, and the Denver Water Board at that point was coming under the domination by their attorney, Glenn Saunders, a city-builder who envisioned a water supply for a โ€˜thousand-year city,โ€™ most of which he thought would have to come from the West Slope. He just wanted the hicks to stay out of his way. (Not an exaggeration at all.)

Taylor could, however, impose his acre-foot-for-every-acre-foot demand on those seeking federal Public Works Administration funds or Bureau of Reclamation assistance. And that set up what is really an interesting story of people working out difficult problems theyโ€™ve imposed on themselves in draping a blanket over a fence and calling it a state, then adopting a wide-open appropriations doctrine for the distribution of a limited resource statewide. Itโ€™s a story with many moving parts that we donโ€™t really have time for here in depth; I will note, however, that the whole story is told in myย Water Wranglersย book, the story of the development of Coloradoโ€™s share of the Colorado River. (Out of print, but copies supposedly in all Colorado libraries.)

The principal players in the story were the Western Colorado Protective Association (WCPA), led by Frank Delaney, a lawyer-rancher, and D.W. Aupperle, a Grand Junction lawyer and fruit grower; the South Platte Water Users Association (SPWUA), led by Charles Hansen, a newspaper editor in farm country and a couple lawyer-farmers; and of course the Bureau which wanted to do a big transdivide diversion to the South Platte River. And what turned out to be the โ€˜wild card,โ€™ Congressman Taylor.

A seemingly endless series of meetings began between the WCPA and the SPWUA with the Bureau in attendance. There was fundamental agreement that, first, the East Slope had legal right to appropriate West Slope water, and second, that the East Slope owed the West Slope some compensation for diverting part of the West Slopeโ€™s base for future development. The challenge was arriving at the amount of compensation. The SPWUA wanted to divert more than 300,000 acre-feet from the Colorado River, for what became the Colorado-Big Thompson Project, but they did not see how (even if they could get some New Deal PWA financing) they could afford to also create that much West Slope storage. But the WCPA felt bound to support their congressman โ€“ without whom they really had no card to keep them in the game. Frustration and ire grew on both sides โ€“ compounded by having to travel back and forth either on the slow trains or drive on roads that were really โ€˜countryโ€™ (a major West Slope chronic complaint).

Finally, in the spring of 1936, Frank Delaney of the WCPA suggested a compromise. If the Bureau and SPWUA wanted to rush into construction, it would have to be Taylorโ€™s acre-foot-for-an-acre-foot mandate. But if they could delay their project until the Bureau did a thorough study of what the loss of 300,000 af of free-flowing water (most of it annually leaving the state unused anyway) would be to the West Slope, and how much storage would actually compensate the West Slope users for that loss of spring runoff, the West Slope would accept that number (and work on getting Cong. Taylor to accept it).

The โ€˜Delaney Resolutionโ€™ broke the stalemate. The Bureau men spent months poring over existing rights and land maps (long before computers and spreadsheets), and came up with a need for 152,000 acre-feet of compensatory storage: 52,000 af to make sure that the Shoshone power plant water right above Glenwood Springs could be met year round (which would also ensure enough late season water for the Grand Valley farms and orchards), and 100,000 af for future irrigation and domestic water development.

That cut Taylorโ€™s demand in two โ€“ and the Bureau planned to add a powerplant to the dam that would significantly reduce what the SPWUA would have to pay back. During this period, Taylor โ€“ an old man โ€“ was actually too sick to participate, and the Delaney Resolution was adopted for the Colorado-Big Thompson Project. (Taylor would die in office in 1941 โ€“ still believing that an acre-foot-for-every-acre-foot was what should be adhered to.)

Graphic credit: RogerWendell.com

The compromise process was codified as โ€˜Senate Document 80,โ€™ part of the Colorado-Big Thompson Project Act passed in 1937. Senate Doc. 80 became part of all subsequent transdivide project planning โ€“ except where Denver was concerned; it wasnโ€™t until the veto of Denver Waterโ€™s Two Forks Project half a century later that Denver Water finally conceded to take West Slope needs into account in its transdivide projects.

That process of working through a significant challenge to mutual benefit stands, in at least my mind, as one of the highlights of the Era of Conquest in the Colorado River region โ€“ a period not without occasional efforts measuring up to the often naive but high-minded vision driving the developersโ€™ โ€˜romancing of the riverโ€™ โ€“ to bring deserts into bloom, to reshape unfriendly environments to accommodate individuals and their families willing to work at it. It is too easy to condemn that from this side where we reap the harvest of all the mistakes involved that they didnโ€™t know about until they had made them.

Next post, weโ€™ll look at what happened to that carefully forged intrastate resolution when serious Colorado River planning came to the Compactโ€™s Upper Basin. Meanwhile โ€“ pray for monsoons, or just a good rainy spell.

Colorado transmountain diversions via the University of Colorado

U.S. Government Orders Emergency Actions to Protect #GlenCanyonDam: Extraordinary moves in the struggling #ColoradoRiver basin could prompt historic lawsuits — Brett Walton (circleofblue.org) #COriver #aridification

Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Powell. Photo credit: Brett Walton/Circle of Blue

Click the link to read the article on the Circle of Blue website (Brett Walton):

April 19, 2026

Difficult decisions for the Colorado River are starting to be made.

In what will be a defining year for the struggling watershed, the federal agency that manages the basinโ€™s dams took unprecedented actions on Friday to store more water in Lake Powell in order to preserve hydropower generation and protect water-delivery infrastructure at Glen Canyon Dam that the agency says is at risk of damage due to low reservoir levels.

The April 17 announcement from the Bureau of Reclamation will also set in motion events that could result in first-ever lawsuits from Arizona, California, or Nevada against their upstream neighbors over water supply from the shrinking Colorado River.

The Central Arizona Project, which delivers Colorado River water to Phoenix and Tucson, called Reclamationโ€™s actions โ€œa band-aidโ€ and urged the agency to release even more water from upstream reservoirs into Powell. CAP, because it has lowest water-rights priority in the lower basin, is the most vulnerable to proposed water cuts that would attempt to align water supply with demand.

โ€œThere is no time to delay,โ€ Patrick Dent, CAPโ€™s assistant general manager for water policy, told Circle of Blue two days before the announcement.

The Bureau of Reclamation will make two moves to support Lake Powell, the huge reservoir formed by Glen Canyon Dam that is less than 25 percent full and shrinking.

Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico are asking the federal government to pause some releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, which straddles the border between Wyoming and Utah. The reservoir, pictured here in 2021, is the third-largest in the Colorado River system.

Reclamationโ€™s first move is to release more water from Flaming Gorge, an upstream reservoir that is 82 percent full. With the consent of the four upper basin states, between 660,000 acre-feet and 1 million acre-feet will flow from Flaming Gorge into Powell over the next 12 months.

Reclamation previously used upstream reservoirs to prop up Powell in 2022-23, when some 463,000 acre-feet were released. These extra releases are supposed to be recovered if water supply conditions turn favorable. If more dry years are ahead, then the upstream releases will have been a one-shot intervention.

The agencyโ€™s second move is to hold back more water in Powell. Using authority granted in a 2024 decision, the agency will cut Powellโ€™s water releases from 7.48 million acre-feet to 6 million acre-feet. This is the first time that Reclamation has invoked its Section 6(E) authority.

Water supply conditions in the basin worsened each month this year as hot, dry weather drained a meager snowpack that is on a downward trend due to manmade climate change. A heat wave in late March was the most extreme on record in the Southwest for that time of year. Inflows into Lake Powell this year are projected to be the lowest ever measured, breaking a record set in 2002.

The water elevation at Powell currently sits at 3,526 feet. Reclamation has stated that it will do what it can to prevent the reservoir from dropping below 3,500 feet. Hydropower generation stops at 3,490 feet. Without Reclamationโ€™s announced interventions, that level is expected to be breached by August.

With the two interventions, Powell is projected, with average weather conditions, to remain above 3,500 feet by April 2027, but just barely. If the next 12 months continue to be hot and dry, more emergency actions might be necessary.

The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson

If Powell were to drop below 3,490 feet, water would have to be released through a smaller set of pipes called the river outlet works. Reclamation has said that using these pipes for extended periods of time is untested and risks damaging them.

Reducing outflows from Powell will have two effects. One is that Lake Mead, located downstream, will shrink more quickly, as will its hydropower output. Boating access will be more difficult.

The other consequence is the specter of litigation. The 1922 Colorado River Compact requires the four upper basin states โ€“ Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming โ€“ to deliver 75 million acre-feet over 10 years. Add in the upper basinโ€™s share of the water required for Mexico and the figure rises to roughly 82.5 million.

Cutting Powell outflows this year to 6 million acre-feet will likely push the 10-year total below the required threshold.

Reclamation is not focusing on the legal implications, says James Eklund, a partner at Taft Law.

โ€œReclamation is essentially telling the basin states, โ€˜We are going to protect our billions of dollarsโ€™ worth of infrastructure, including Glen Canyon Dam, and if you believe that violates your compact entitlement, you know where the courthouse isโ€™,โ€ Eklund, a former Colorado River commissioner for Colorado, wrote to Circle of Blue.

States in both upper and lower basins have already set aside money for potential litigation or are considering it.

Still, a legal right does not necessarily mean the water is available, Eklund cautions. โ€œNo court can conjure acre-feet that arenโ€™t in the reservoir.โ€

Critics question fedsโ€™ plans for future of #ColoradoRiver: In years of severe #drought, โ€˜the system is failingโ€™, #ClimateChange is sapping river flows as #LakePowell, #LakeMead water levels continue to fall — The #Denver Post #COriver #aridification

Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall

Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (Elise Schmelzer). Here’s an excerpt:

April 19. 2026

The multitude of water managers tasked with overseeingย the drying Colorado River systemstand at a dire crossroads. As a years long stalemate in negotiations persists between the seven states that share the river, itโ€™s become increasingly likely that the federal government will impose its own long-term plan, choosing from a range of proposals officials have outlined in recent months. But experts and water managers across the 250,000-square-mile Colorado River basin are raising the alarm about the five plans, questioning if any of them hold up under the new climate reality. They say the federal plans wonโ€™t keep the system from crashing in critically dry years โ€” which are becoming more frequent โ€” and could wreak chaos on the pivotal lifeline for 40 million people in the American Southwest.

โ€œIn every one of those alternatives, under what they call critically dry hydrology, the system is failing,โ€ said Andy Mueller, the general manager of the Colorado River District, a taxpayer-funded agency based in Glenwood Springs that works to protect Western Slope water. โ€œAnd critically dry hydrology is what we have continued to see consistently in the basin in the last 25 years and what we should expect going forward.โ€

[…]

In extremely dry years, the longer-term plans under consideration by Reclamation would allow the water levels of the systemโ€™s two main reservoirs to repeatedly fall below minimum power pool. Federal officials then would be forced to make recurring emergency cuts to the water supplies of the three states downstream of the reservoirs, creating uncertainty for millions of people and a massive agricultural industry…Letters from a number of Colorado entities โ€” including theย Northwest Colorado Council of Governments,ย irrigation districts, the Western Slopeโ€™sย Club 20ย and county commissions from a vast swath of the state โ€” urged federal officials to present at least one plan that would hold up in extremely dry years.

โ€œSound science dictates that Colorado River management must evolve to handle a permanently drier future,โ€ Tina Bergonzini, the general manager of the Grand Valley Water Users Association,ย wrote in her comments to the bureau. โ€œThe current federal preference for predictability is an atmospheric impossibility given that studies indicate rising temperatures have already slashed river flows by a fifth.โ€

[…]

The conflict on the Colorado is likely one of the worldโ€™s first major water policy overhauls to grapple with the reality of climate change, saidย Brad Udall, a senior water and climate research scholar at Colorado State Universityโ€™sย Colorado Water Center. In the past, Colorado River managers made operational tweaks and short-term deals to address drought. This time, itโ€™s different.

โ€œWeโ€™re not looking at an incremental step here,โ€ Udall said. โ€œWeโ€™re looking at a complete redo of how we operate this resource that affects 40 million people.โ€

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

#Arizona’s Growth Machine keeps churning even as existing communities dry up: Thinking about #GrandCanyon river flows — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org) #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Rendering of the Halo Vista development and TSMCโ€™s campus. Source: discoverhalovista.com

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

April 17, 2026

๐Ÿฅต Aridification Watch ๐Ÿซ

Sometimes it feels like there are two parallel Southwestern United States out there.

One is naturally arid, is getting hotter and hotter by the year and is gripped by the most severe drought of the last millennium or more. Its water lifeline, the Colorado River system, is on the brink of collapse, and communities and farmers from Wyoming to Calexico are facing painful mandatory water cutbacks this summer.

And then thereโ€™s the other one, a sort of fantasy world, or maybe just an oblivious one, in which new water diversion projects like the Lake Powell Pipeline remain on the table, state leaders prepare to go to legal war to protect their statesโ€™ profligate water consumption, and a developer is breaking ground on a 2,300-acre โ€œcity within a cityโ€ called Halo Vista in North Phoenix.

Halo Vistaโ€™s developers are billing it as a companion development to TSMCโ€™s $165 billion semiconductor fabrication facility complex. It will wrap around the industrial campus (thus the โ€œhaloโ€ in the name), and plans call for some 30 million square feet of industrial, retail, office, research, and healthcare spaces along with 9,000 or more residential units.

โ€œYou have to think about all the people at full build-out whoโ€™ll work in this area โ€” about 60 to 80,000 people,โ€ Greater Phoenix Economic Council President Christine Mackay told AZFamily. โ€œTheyโ€™ll work in the Halo Vista science and technology park. They need restaurants, hotels, places to live โ€” and places to shop for what they need.โ€

Historically, Arizonaโ€™s economy was said to run on five Cs: copper, cotton, citrus, cattle, and climate. Copper is still going fairly strong, most of the citrus groves have given way to housing developments, alfalfa has surpassed cotton, and the beef-cattle have been replaced by dairy factories. Now another C โ€” computer chips โ€” is being added to the mix, as the Phoenix-area experiences a semiconductor manufacturing boom and a coinciding data-center buildup.

The tech industryโ€™s expansion is adding economic diversity, making the city somewhat less vulnerable to 2008-like financial breakdowns. But as Halo Vista demonstrates, it is also feeding Phoenixโ€™s dominant economic force, the Growth Machine. And both the Growth Machine and the data center/semiconductor boom need water, and quite a lot of it. This, in turn, increases Phoenixโ€™s exposure to future water shortages, which seem more and more likely with each passing day.

According to TSMCโ€™s draft environmental assessment, the first phase of its Phoenix fabrication plants will initially use about 4.75 million gallons of water per day, or 5,320 acre-feet per year, which would jump to about 19,400 acre-feet yearly if and when all three phases are built out. But the company says it will eventually install a recycling system that will bring that number down considerably. The 9,000 residential units in Halo Vista would use about 2,800 acre-feet per year (based on Phoenixโ€™s current per-capita water consumption multiplied by a rough estimate of 20,000 people occupying those residences). Halo Vistaโ€™s other industrial and commercial properties will consume an unknown additional amount of water.

So letโ€™s say the whole development, including the โ€œfabs,โ€ will use about 25,000 acre-feet per year โ€” less if the water efficiencies are realized, more if Halo Vistaโ€™s tech district includes data centers or other water-intensive industries.

Thatโ€™s a lot of water, or a drop in the bucket, depending on how you look at it.

On the one hand it is equal to about one-fourth of Nevadaโ€™s total consumptive use from the Colorado River. Yes, the city of sin and excess only uses about four times more water than the TSMC/Halo Vista โ€œcityโ€ will use.

On the other, itโ€™s far less than the alfalfa farms in Maricopa County โ€” in which Halo Vista is located โ€” use for irrigation each year, which totals something like 500,000 acre-feet.1 And yet, Halo Vista/TSMC, once all built out in 20 years or so, will have a significantly larger economic output than a bunch of hay fields (which isnโ€™t the only measure of value or even the most important one, and yet, well, water does flow uphill to money).

So yes, it is possible to sidestep water concerns by pulling out the โ€œwhat about alfalfaโ€ comparison. But itโ€™s also not all that productive.

Halo Vista, which is being built on a plot of uncultivated state land in the desert, is not displacing an alfalfa farmโ€™s water use. Rather, it represents a new water use piled on top of existing consumption. The water will come out of Phoenixโ€™s municipal system, and therefore officially has an โ€œassured and adequateโ€ 100-year water supply, which is necessary in Arizona for this sort of development.

Yet thereโ€™s nothing assured about Arizonaโ€™s water future. Phoenixโ€™s water comes primarily from high priority rights on the Salt and Verde Rivers, and from the Colorado River via the Central Arizona Project. But those rights will hardly matter if the rivers dry up: This yearโ€™s Salt River Basin meagre snowpack had vanished by March 1, spring runoff peaked weeks ago, and flows are rapidly falling. Meanwhile, the Central Arizona Project has relatively low priority rights, meaning it will be the first to take cuts as the river shrinks.

In other words, aridification and the Colorado River crisis pose an existential threat to Phoenixโ€™s tech boom and, well, Phoenix, itself, which is one of the reasons Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is preparing for a bitter legal fight with the feds and the Upper Basin states over the Colorado River.

The good news for the developers and the semiconductor makers is that agriculture continues to use a lot of water in Arizona. And where there is large consumptive use, there is also more room for increased efficiencies and, if it comes to it, โ€œbuying and dryingโ€ the farms for their water โ€” which has its own negative consequences. The bad news is that the shortages to come may very well exceed the amount that could be wrung out of the existing farms.

Halo Vista, which is on a 20-year buildout schedule, is far from the only major water- and energy-guzzling development on slate for the increasingly arid West. And maybe itโ€™s not realistic to expect all such development to come to a screeching halt simply because the water may run out sometime in the future. After all, climate change could cause more precipitation; maybe in 20 years weโ€™ll be worrying more about flooding than desiccation.

But you would think that planners and policymakers and the developers would at least act in line with our current reality, where resources, especially water, are limited. Halo Vista-esque projects should be required not just to certify an โ€œassuredโ€ 100-year supply, but they also should have to offset new consumption with cuts somewhere else, whether itโ€™s paying for farmers to install drip irrigation or funding treated wastewater recycling projects.

Continuing to consume water at current rates is one thing. Adding new uses on top of our current overconsumption is quite another.

***

And so it begins. It looks like residents of the small Arizona community of Kearney may lose their water altogether later this summer, making developments like Halo Vista look even more surreal.

The town sent this emergency memo out to residents in April:

Kearney sits in Arizonaโ€™s โ€œCopper Triangleโ€ along the banks of Gila River and in the proverbial shadow of the Hayden copper smelter smokestack. The town was established by the Kennecott Mining Company in 1958 to house residents displaced from Ray, Sonora, and Barcelona as the mineโ€™s gaping Ray mine pit gobbled up the communities. Resolution Copperโ€™s proposed Oak Flat mine is also nearby, as is Faradayโ€™s proposed Copper Creek project.

Kearney has a maximum allotment of 610 acre-feet of water from the Gila River. This year, however, extreme drought conditions have brought the allotment down to just .76 acre-feet, forcing the town to impose severe restrictions on use to try to make it last until the monsoon arrives.

As for all the mines surrounding Kearney? Iโ€™m guessing their dealing with their own water issues, but Iโ€™d also wager that theyโ€™re allowed a heck of a lot more than three-fourths of an acre-foot.


The water footprint of Arizona’s copper mines — Jonathan P. Thompson


Condors perched on steel girders some 450 feet above the Colorado River. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

๐ŸŸย Colorado River Chroniclesย ๐Ÿ’ง

In the comment section on the last Land Desk dispatch, reader wkarls reported on the Colorado Riverโ€™s flows during a recent raft trip on the Grand Canyon.ย It got me to thinking about how low those flows might go and what that could mean.

Iโ€™ve only boated down the Grand Canyon once, back in October and November of 1995 with a group of slightly crazy Salida rafting folks. It was a beautiful, terrifying, sublime โ€” if somewhat debauched โ€” experience. During the trip, releases from Glen Canyon Dam โ€” which make up about 95% of the flow in the Grand Canyon โ€” fluctuated between 11,000 and 16,000 cubic feet per second, a number that was bolstered downstream after a good rainstorm moved through, turning the river that intimidating blood-and-chocolate-milk color. That seemed like plenty of water to me; it was certainly enough to generate waves big enough to toss our little rafts about like toys (did I mention it was scary as hell?).

Somewhat surprisingly, the releases were about the same in September of last year, bouncing between 10,000 and 16,000 cfs, which appears to have been an effort to get the annual flows past Lees Ferry up to about 7.5 million acre-feet to keep the Upper Basin in compliance with the Colorado River Compactโ€™s non-depletion obligation. Then, on Oct. 1, the beginning of the 2026 water year, releases plummeted. This spring theyโ€™ve been in that 7,000 to 9,000 cfs range that wkarls mentioned.

Thatโ€™s in line with the Bureau of Reclamationโ€™s plan to release just 6 million acre-feet from the dam this water year: 6 million acre-feet per year averages out to about 8,200 cfs. Thatโ€™s also right in line with the Grand Canyon Protection Actโ€™s operating criteria, which set a minimum allowable release during the day (between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m.) at 8,000 cfs, while the minimum nighttime release is 5,000 cfs.

So, given all of that, we can assume that the flows shouldnโ€™t drop much below current levels this summer. Of course, if conditions are worse than expected, then the reservoir could drop to 3,500 feet earlier than anticipated, which could force dam operators to further curtail releases to โ€œdefendโ€ minimum power pool. If so, then you might see nighttime releases drop as low as 5,000 cfs. If thatโ€™s not enough, then I suppose dam operators would have to go to a run-of-the-river scenario, where flows could plummet to 2,000 or 3,000 cfs, which would make rafting quite interesting.


๐Ÿ“ธย Parting Shotย ๐ŸŽž๏ธ

Colorado River at/around Lees Ferry in autumn 2024, when Glen Canyon Dam releases were around 8,000 cfs.
Colorado River at/around Lees Ferry in autumn 2024, when Glen Canyon Dam releases were around 8,000 cfs.
Colorado River at/around Lees Ferry in autumn 2024, when Glen Canyon Dam releases were around 8,000 cfs.

Abysmal math on the #ColoradoRiver: Feds look to avoid de facto deadpool at #GlenCanyon Dam — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org) #COriver #aridification

The Central Arizona Project canal, which carries Colorado River water to Phoenix and Tucson, as it runs past fields in the desert (that are irrigated with groundwater, not CAP water). The CAP is not likely to see new cuts this year beyond the levels already imposed. Source: Google Earth.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

April 14, 2026

๐ŸŸย Colorado River Chroniclesย ๐Ÿ’ง

With each passing April day without major snowfall, we gain more clarity on the Colorado River situation and what things might look like this summer, which is, in a word, grim.ย Or, as Arizonaโ€™s top water officials put it: โ€œThe winter and spring snowpack and runoff projections in the upper basin are abysmal.โ€

The Colorado River Basin Forecast Center is putting a number to that term by predicting that the Colorado River system will deliver about 1.4 million acre-feet1ย of water to Lake Powell from April 1 through July 31. Thatโ€™s about 23% of the median for the spring runoff season, which is when flows are most abundant, and just over half of last yearโ€™s not so great figure of 2.6 MAF.

This yearโ€™s Upper Colorado Basin spring runoff is forecast to be about 1.4 million acre-feet. That isnโ€™t as low as 2002, which was just below 1 million acre-feet, but if conditions donโ€™t improve it could fall even lower than that. Source: Colorado River Basin Forecast Center.

Believe it or not, that figure โ€” the official 50% forecast, made by an actual person โ€” may be optimistic. Over the last two weeks, the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction model (which is a constantly updating automated forecast) has come up with an even more dire outlook, downgrading the forecast to 1.16 MAF during that same time period.

Abysmal, indeed.

Weโ€™re also getting a little more information as to how the feds plan to address the crisis, at least in the near-term. Most significantly, they tentatively plan to โ€œdefendโ€ minimum power pool at Glen Canyon Dam, which is to say they will do what it takes to keep the surface level of Lake Powell at or above 3,500 feet in elevation to avoid relying on the lower river outlets, which are not engineered for sustained use. The weapons they will use for this defense include:

  • Reducing Lake Powell releases from the planned 7.48 million acre-feet to 6 million acre-feet.
  • Releasing up to 1 MAF from the โ€œUpper Initial Units,โ€ which includes Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa, and Navajo Reservoirs. Hydrology may make this impossible, however, meaning that these releases could be as low asย 650 MAFย .65 MAF (or 650,000 acre-feet).
  • For now, Interior is not asking for larger cuts from the Lower Basin (beyond the 1.5 MAF cuts theyโ€™ve already taken), which presumably means the feds will not reduce Lake Mead releases through Hoover Dam.

But will it be enough to avoid dipping below what I call de facto deadpool at Lake Powell? We wonโ€™t really know until later this summer, but a fairly simple calculation can help predict that future. Keep in mind that Iโ€™m no hydrologist, Iโ€™m just working with the numbers that are available to see whether potential inputs (Lake Powell inflows) are at least equal to planned outputs (Glen Canyon Dam releases).

I put together this little diagram to help visualize things. I know the text is tough to read in the email version, and especially if youโ€™re reading this on your phone. So Iโ€™d suggest clicking on the image (or the headline of this post) and viewing it in the web version.

Simplified diagram of Glen Canyon Dam with inputs (on the right) and outputs (on the left). *Fish pool is the surface level scientists have deemed necessary for minimizing the potential of non-native bass escaping through the dam and propagating downstream, where they can compete with endangered native fish. Infographic by Land Desk using data from Bureau of Reclamation and the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center.

Here are the figures for the equation.ย 

Inflows:

  • 1.5 MAF: Lake Powell Storage available above 3,500 feet.
  • 1.1 MAF to 1.4 MAF: Forecast Lake Powell inflows April-July
  • .65 MAF to 1 MAF: Planned releases from upper basin reservoirs.

TOTAL INFLOWS: 3.25 to 3.9 MAF

Outflows:

  • 2.9 MAF: April 1 – Oct. 1 releases to reach 6 MAF for the water year (3.13 MAF has already been released)
  • .3 MAF: Rough estimate of evaporation from Lake Powell for the remainder of the water year.

TOTAL OUTFLOWS: 3.2 MAF

That gives us a whopping .05 to .7 million acre-feet to spare. That is cutting it close, folks; a hot, dry summer could drive evaporation levels up, and/or bring inflows down, shaving off the sliver of breathing room this affords. But unless the outlook dims considerably, the BoR should be able to avoid a run-of-the-river situation this year, which is good news. And, since Arizona likely will not be required to take more cuts this year, the state will probably hold off on doing a compact call and dragging the Upper Basin to court.ย 

These measures, however, will have a variety of consequences, including:

  • The Upper Basin reservoirs (Flaming Gorge, Navajo, Blue Mesa) are also likely to see record low inflows this year.ย That, combined with up to 1 million acre-feet of additional releases to benefit Lake Powell, will draw them down considerably, affecting hydropower production, irrigation, and, especially, recreation.ย 
  • Non-native smallmouth bass are abundant in Lake Powell, but since they are warmer-water fish, they tend to stay near the surface of the reservoir, meaning under normal conditions they stay well above the penstocks, or the outlets in the dam that lead to the hydropower turbines. However,ย as the surface drops closer to the penstock openings, so do the fish, allowing them to get flushed through the dam into the Colorado River.ย And because the water released from the dam is warmer (since itโ€™s nearer to the surface), that warms the river downstream, allowing the bass to thrive and compete with the endangered native fish downstream. This is likely to be exacerbated as the surface level nears 3,500 feet.ย 
  • This yearโ€™s 6 MAF release from Glen Canyon Dam will bring the ten-year aggregate flows at Lees Ferry down to about 79 million acre-feet.ย This potentially puts the Upper Basin in violation of Article III of the Colorado River Compact, which mandates that the Upper Basin โ€œnot cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75 million acre-feetโ€ for any 10-year period. A 1944 treaty added another 7.5 million acre-feet to this figure to cover half of Mexicoโ€™s allotment, making for a total of 82.5 MAF over ten years. Note: The interpretation of this provision is in dispute.ย 
  • The diminished reservoir levels, combined with the reduced releases, will lead to lower hydropower output from the dam.ย That will force tribes, communities, and utilities that buy the relatively cheap power to purchase it on the open market. And it will also cut into power-sale revenues, which help fund endangered fish recovery programs.ย 
  • Reduced dam releases will mean lower flows, on average, through the Grand Canyon, affecting riparian ecosystems and boating.ย 
  • Reduced dam releases equate to lower flows into Lake Mead. Since the BoR apparently does not plan to cut releases from Hoover Dam, that reservoir will likely see its levels drop considerably, diminishing hydropower output and affecting recreation. My rough calculation suggestsย Lake Meadโ€™s surface level will drop from the current 1,060 feet to about 1,030 feet, which would be lower even than in 2022. The BoR has suggested it will โ€œdefendโ€ a level of 1,000 feet. That would almost certainly lead to Lower Basin shortages.
Itโ€™s still a long ways out, but for now the NOAA is calling for above average precipitation in the Southwest later this summer.
A super El Niรฑo appears to be forming, but the effects in the Upper Colorado River Basin are especially hard to predict because it sits right in between the โ€œwarmer, drierโ€ and the โ€œwetter, colderโ€ zones, meaning it could go either way. Source: NOAA.

There is potentially good news on the horizon. Conditions are ripening up for a โ€œsuperโ€ El Niรฑo to begin forming this summer. Itโ€™s difficult to predict how that will affect the Upper Colorado River Basin, but for now, forecasts are calling for a strong monsoon in the Southwest, beginning in July. That probably would not do much to bring up Lake Powellโ€™s levels, but it would provide relief to the many farmers who are almost certain to lose irrigation relatively early this summer and may help keep late-summer megafires at bay. And, you never know, El Niรฑo might just bring a monster winter just when we need it most.


A Colorado River glossary and primer — Jonathan P. Thompson


1 *The forecasts are for the โ€œunregulated flow,โ€ which means that it is an estimate of what the flow would be without upstream dams holding water back. This is not the same as โ€œnatural flowโ€ which is a calculation of what the flow would be without upstream human consumptive use, dams, or diversions. In this case, actual inflow and unregulated inflow are almost the same.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

#Denver Board of Water Commissioners approves temporary drought pricing as part of Stage 1 #drought response — DenverWater.org #SouthPlatteRiver #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the Denver Water website:

April 8, 2026

Lea este artรญculo en espaรฑol.

Denver Waterโ€™s collection and service areas continue to face severe drought conditions, with historically low snowpack and concerns about the diminished spring runoff that will be available to meet customerโ€™s water needs in the future.ย 

As a result, at its meeting today, the Denver Board of Water Commissioners adopted a resolution approving the implementation of temporary drought pricing on outdoor water use. The drought pricing will apply starting with May water use (reflected in June bills) and will be in effect through April 30, 2027, or until further action by the board.

Under the temporary drought pricing, residential customers will see a drought charge on Tier 2 water use of $1.10 per 1,000 gallons. Tier 3 will have a drought charge of $2.20 per 1,000 gallons. The temporary drought charges will be added on top of the customerโ€™s existing 2026 water rates.

Tier 1, which covers essential indoor water use, is exempt from drought pricing.

โ€œImplementing temporary drought pricing is not a step we take lightly. It is one of many tools Denver Water has available โ€” when needed โ€” to respond to drought conditions, encourage customers to conserve our water supply, and ensure our ongoing ability to operate and maintain the system that delivers clean, safe water to 1.5 million people,โ€ said Alan Salazar, Denver Waterโ€™s CEO/Manager.ย 

โ€œDrought charges signal to our customers the premium value of water in a drought, while exempting essential indoor water use. We havenโ€™t needed to use this tool in more than 20 years โ€” since the historic drought of 2002-04 โ€” and conditions surrounding this yearโ€™s snowpack and potential runoff are shaping up to rival, and possibly be worse than, those years,โ€ Salazar said.

Please keep sprinklers OFF until mid-to-late May, or later if it rains, to help stretch the water supplies we have. Hand water trees and shrubs if needed. Itโ€™s a drought. Use Only What You Need. Photo credit: Denver Water.

Under the temporary drought pricing approved by the board, for Denver Water residential customers in Denver and the suburbs:

  • e first tier will be exempt from the temporary drought charge.ย This tier is charged at the lowest rate and covers essential indoor water use for bathing, cooking and flushing toilets. Each customer has their individual first tier determined by the average of their monthly water use as listed on bills that arrive in January, February and March โ€” when there is very little or no outdoor watering.
  • The second tier will have a temporary drought charge of $1.10 per 1,000 gallons added on top of their 2026 water rates.ย This tier is for water consumption, typically used for outdoor watering, that is above the customerโ€™s first tier and up to 15,000 gallons of water per month. Water use in this tier is considered to be an efficient use of water outdoors.
  • The third tier will have a temporary drought charge of $2.20 per 1,000 gallons of water added on top of their 2026 water rates.ย Tier 3 is for water use above the second tier each month. It is priced at the highest level to signal potentially excessive water use and encourage conservation efforts by larger-lot customers.

The boardโ€™s decision to impose temporary drought charges on outdoor water use follows its March 25 declaration of Stage 1 drought. The declaration seeks a 20% reduction in water use effective immediately, with the goal of preserving water supplies and to help avoid the need for Denver Water to take further actions later this summer if conditions donโ€™t improve.ย Read the March 25, 2026, drought declaration.

The snowpack, which supplies the water Denver Water captures, stores, treats and delivers to customers, isย at historically low levelsย despite recent storms that brought some much-needed precipitation to the mountains and city last week.

Itโ€™s a drought. Image credit: Denver Water.

โ€œWe welcome the storms that do come, while knowing that this yearโ€™s snowpack is at historically low levels and hopes for a Miracle May snowstorm are dimming. And Denver Water has made a number of tools available to help customers reduce their water use โ€” whether itโ€™s a normal year or a drought year. We encourage our customers to take steps to conserve water for this drought and be better prepared to manage through future dry times,โ€ Greg Fisher, Denver Waterโ€™s manager of demand planning and efficiency.

Denver Waterโ€™s temporary drought pricing charges a premium for outdoor water use and covers several classes of customers, including residential, large irrigation, wholesale and raw water customers. (See the chart at the bottom of this story for additional information on nonresidential customers.)

An individual residential customerโ€™s monthly water bill will vary depending on where they live in Denver Waterโ€™s service area (in Denver or in one of the utility’s suburban distributor districts) and how much water they use. Drought charges are expected to incentivize customers to reduce outdoor water use.

The following two charts illustrate the potential impact of the temporary drought charges on an annual water bill for residential customers living inside the city of Denver and, below that, in a Total Service suburban distributor district.

Examples of the impact of temporary drought charges on an annual water bill for Denver Water customers living inside Denver. In this example, “super conservers” will see their bills increase by roughly $7 annually. High users who do not conserve will see their bills increase by roughly $76 in one year. Individual bills will vary. Image credit: Denver Water.

In these charts, the categories are:

  • โ€œSuper conserverโ€:ย A customer who has very little outdoor water use, maybe only watering trees and shrubs throughout the year.
  • โ€œGood conserverโ€:ย An average customer who reduces their annual water use by 20%, from 104,000 gallons (the average use by residential customers in an average year) to 82,000 gallons.
  • โ€œNon-conserverโ€:ย An average Denver Water residential customer who uses 104,000 gallons of water over the course of the year (the average use by residential customers in an average year) and doesnโ€™t respond to Denver Waterโ€™s call to reduce water use by 20%.
  • โ€œHigh userโ€:ย A customer in the top 25% of residential water users.ย 

The following chart illustrates temporary drought charges impacts for residential customers who live in one of Denver Waterโ€™s Total Service distributor districts in the suburbs. (Learn more about Denver Waterโ€™s suburban customers.)ย 

Examples of the impact of the temporary drought charges on an annual water bill for Denver Water customers living in one of Denver Waterโ€™s Total Service suburban distributor districts. “Super conservers” will see their bills increase by roughly $8 annually. High users who do not conserve will see their bills increase by roughly $76 in one year. Individual bills will vary. Image credit: Denver Water.

โ€œThis is not Denver Waterโ€™s first drought. We know our customers strive to be efficient in their water use, and we know we are asking them to use less to stretch the water supplies we have in this drought. We also know that success in reducing water use will result in reduced revenue for our organization. We have tools to address reduced revenue and ensure the organization maintains its financial foundation for when this drought is over,โ€ said Angela Bricmont, Denver Waterโ€™s chief financial officer.

If customers comply with Denver Waterโ€™s request to reduce water use by 20%, the utility estimates 2026 revenue to fall by a commensurate amount. While drought pricing can offset a portion of that reduction, the utility will rely on cash reserves and budget reductions to cover the majority of the gap.ย 

Denver Water hasย proactively reduced its spending, taking steps that include enacting a hiring freeze and reviewing maintenance and other projects to see which ones could be deferred.

Now is the time to replace non-native plants with with drought-tolerant plants. Photo credit: Denver Water

To help customers Use Only What They Need indoors and outdoors, Denver Water offers a range of tools, including:ย 

Additional information and tips are available on ourย conservation website.

Temporary drought charges for nonresidential customers:

Conservation isnโ€™t enough for the #ColoradoRiverโ€™s drier future, #Arizona State University water expert says — KJZZ.org #COriver #aridification

Phoenix had native water, but expansive growth, among the fastest in the nation, has been enabled by imported Colorado River water since the 1990s. Photo/Allen Best

Click the link to read the article on the KJZZ website (Alex Hager). Here’s an excerpt:

April 13, 2025

A new article by an Arizona State University water expert argues that existing conservation measures are a step in the right direction, but may not be effective enough in the face of climate change. Dave White, director of ASUโ€™s Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation, says city leaders around the Colorado River basin need to think bigger to plan for a future in which the river has less water to go around.

โ€œWe have to think about a reset, a recalibration,โ€ White told KJZZ, โ€œto have an economy and a lifestyle in the southwest that lives within the means of the new normal of water availability in the Colorado River.โ€

White, alongside The Pennsylvania State Universityโ€™s Renee Obringer, wrote that cities such as Phoenix, Denver and Las Vegas have made major strides in saving water among homes and businesses. In Phoenix, conservation programs led to a 20% reduction in water use over 20 years, while the population grew by about 40%…Even under aggressive conservation measures, though, theย new reportย explains that demand management practices โ€œwonโ€™t be able to keep upโ€ with the kind of hot, dry conditions that fueled the current 26-year megadrought and will likely continue for years in the future…New technologies will likely be a big part of citiesโ€™ drought response going forward. White pointed to the need forย water reuse programs,ย desalination facilitiesย and reductions to the amount of water consumed for electricity generation. While Central Arizona cities are already looking to some of those technologies, White said changes may be needed sooner than they can be deployed.

Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall

โ€˜Itโ€™s incredibly badโ€™: No end in sight to #ColoradoRiver water crisis. Emergency drawdown of #FlamingGorge is imminent, officials say. The water situation is crashing so rapidly that authorities canโ€™t confidently track the extent of it — Dustin Bleizeffer (WyoFile.com) #COriver #aridification

A tourist visits the lower reaches of Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah in September 2021. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the article on the Wyofile website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

April 10, 2026

The outlook for the Colorado River, and Lake Powell in particular, continues to worsen due to an historically warm winter and dismal snowpack.

Projections show that Lake Powell on the Utah-Arizona border could drop low enough this year that it stops producing hydroelectric power at the Glen Canyon Dam. If it drops even lower, the dam is in danger of structural failure.

Wyoming relies on some of that hydroelectric power, according to state officials. The state will also play a major, legally obligated role in trying to help prevent such a catastrophe. Primarily, the Bureau of Reclamation will release extra water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir โ€” potentially 1 million acre feet, which is more than a quarter of its storage capacity of about 3.8 million acre-feet.

In addition to recreation and economic impacts at Flaming Gorge on the Wyoming-Utah border โ€” boat ramps may be rendered inoperable โ€” Wyoming officials worry about potential mandatory water use reductions in the southwest corner of the state, as well as potential legal entanglements over a seven-state negotiation that has so far failed to resolve how stakeholders will share the pain of a declining Colorado River.

Buckboard Marina owner Tony Valdez, seen here Sept. 26, 2022, says heโ€™s made continual adjustments to boat docks to keep up with lowering water levels at Flaming Gorge Reservoir. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Adding to frustrations and fears, the water crisis is so severe and crashing so rapidly that stakeholders canโ€™t even track โ€” with confidence โ€” its extent.

โ€œEven though these projections are painting an incredibly dire picture for us, we need to be mindful that runoff might even be worse than whatโ€™s being projected,โ€ Wyoming Senior Assistant Attorney General Chris Brown said Friday, adding that dry soil throughout the region is a wildcard in water calculations. โ€œItโ€™s bad. Itโ€™s incredibly bad what weโ€™re seeing in the Upper [Colorado River] Basin right now.โ€

Brown joined Wyoming State Engineer Brandon Gebhart Friday at a Wyoming Colorado River Advisory Committee meeting to provide an update on the crisis (click here to see a slidedeck presented at the meeting).

โ€œThe information weโ€™re getting is evolving just about as quickly as the hydrology is declining, so weโ€™re trying to react to what weโ€™re seeing in almost real time,โ€ Brown said. โ€œWe donโ€™t know whatโ€™s actually going to happen.โ€

This graphic depicts the โ€œprobableโ€ water year for the Colorado River Basin in 2026. (Bureau of Reclamation)

An extra release from Flaming Gorge, which will begin on or before May 1, is a certainty, according to Wyoming water officials. Thatโ€™s because the reservoir was specifically built to serve as a sort of water bank to ensure legally obliged deliveries to downstream states Nevada, Arizona and California. Among four storage reservoirs in the upper basin, Flaming Gorge has the most โ€” and the most legally unrestricted โ€“ water to send downstream to Lake Powell.

โ€œItโ€™s the low-hanging fruit,โ€ Brown said. โ€œItโ€™s the biggest, by far, and itโ€™s got the most available water.โ€

The reservoir also played a vital backup role for Lake Powell a few years ago. Colorado River authorities released an extra volume of about 465,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge in 2023.

But this year, even considering decreased releases from Lake Powell to help maintain Glen Canyon damโ€™s functionality, โ€œanything we do as far as upstream [extra water] releases is not going to be enough,โ€ Brown said.

Flaming Gorge Reservoir on the Utah side near the dam in September 2021. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

The Ship Needs a Captain: A call for leadership in the #ColoradoRiver Basin — ย Page Buono and Sinjin Eberle (AmericanRivers.org) #COriver #aridification

Banks of Lake Powell, Arizona in March 2026 | Page Buono

Click the link to read the article on the American Rivers website (Page Buono and Sinjin Eberle):

March 18, 2026

The situation is clear: the precipitation outlook in the Colorado River Basin is dire, the river cannot sustain the demands placed on it, and this year weโ€™re likely to face unprecedented management decisions with potentially catastrophic consequences.

Despite decades of warnings and years of negotiations, there remains no clear blueprint for how the West can live with less water. That future is no longer hypotheticalโ€”it is already here.

Lake Powellโ€™s drastically low water levels are evident in the discoloration of ancient cliffs that were submerged for decades, often referred to as โ€œthe bathtub ringโ€ in March 2026 | Page Buono

We often talk about the Colorado River and drought in ways that can feel removed, impersonal, abstract, and buried in jargon. But beneath the stories, there are real lives, livelihoods, ecosystems, and traditions that make the region what it is, and that are very much at stake. 

West Drought Monitor map April 7, 2026.

On March 3, for example, the US Drought Monitor released their latest report, revealing that โ€œsnow water equivalentโ€ is less than 70% of normal across the Central Rockies, and less than 50% in the Four Corners. 

Snow water equivalent is essentially how the water in the snow translates to real, wet water โ€“ the kind rivers and people rely on. By some accounts, the prediction for this yearโ€™s total is now on par with โ€“ and potentially worse than โ€“ 2002, which previously held the record for one of the worst water years on the Colorado River. For those who live in the region, the catastrophic wildfires of 2002 are not abstract: the Hayman fire burned for over a month, killed six people, destroyed more than 600 homes, and amounted to estimates of $42 million worth in damages. That same year, Arizona experienced the Rodeo-Chediski fire, which burned nearly half a million acres.

But it isnโ€™t just one fire in one year โ€“ throughout the Southwest and in California, regions are experiencing some of the largest, most catastrophic wildfires in history, and theyโ€™re occurring much more frequently.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Upper #ColoradoRiver Basin Statesโ€™ Governors Release Statement on Proposed Draw Down of #FlamingGorge and Upper Basin Reservoirs

View below Flaming Gorge Dam from the Green River, eastern Utah. Photo credit: USGS

Click the link to read the release on Governor Polis’ website:

April 9, 2026

Today, Governors Jared Polis (D-Colo.), Mark Gordon (R-Wyo.), Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-N.M.) and Spencer Cox (R-Utah) released a statement on the proposed draw down of Flaming Gorge and other upper basin reservoirs: 

โ€œThis is an unprecedented year on the Colorado River, and likely will be one of the worst on record. A dry year like this reminds us of why it is critical that all who rely on this resource learn to live within its means and adapt our uses accordingly. 

The Upper Division States of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, are actively and strictly regulating water uses. Because of such diminished runoff, existing state laws in the Upper Division States require water users to face cuts to water rights dating back to the 1800s – these cuts are mandatory, uncompensated, and will have significant impacts on water users, including Upper Basin Tribes, and local economies. 

It is critical that any releases made by the federal government from Flaming Gorge and other upstream reservoirs are in compliance with existing agreements, particularly the 2019 Drought Response Operations Agreement between the Bureau of Reclamation and the Upper Division States and governing law and done for the purpose of protecting Lake Powell. We must have a clear understanding of how these proposed releases will effectively protect elevations at Lake Powell. Once the releases conclude, we expect that all water released from Flaming Gorge and other upstream reservoirs will be fully recovered. 

Further, any releases must be appropriately sized. Years like this one remind us that appropriate water storage helps us survive the dry years, and that we must be prepared not only for this year but future dry years, as well as average years. 

As we continue to comply with commitments to our water users and the Law of River, we recognize the impacts of water shortages and water releases from Upper Basin reservoirs on local communities – not only related to future water supply availability, but also how they affect jobs and local recreational and other economies. We recognize the need to live within the available supply and expect other communities to do so as well.โ€ 

#ColoradoRiver supply forecast melts after March heat wave — Scott Franz (KUNC.org) #COriver #aridification

The Colorado River flows near Hite, Utah on July 4, 2022. The river’s water supply is shrinking, and states are caught in a standoff about how to cut back on demand. Alex Hager/KUNC

Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Scott Franz):

April 8, 2026

This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.

Last month’s record breaking heat across the Mountain West led to the worst snowpack on record in Colorado and Utah, along with a significantly downgraded forecast for the upcoming supply of Colorado River water.

Cody Moser with the federal Colorado Basin River Forecast Centerย said in a monthly briefing Tuesdayย [April 7, 2026] that just 1.4 million acre feet of Colorado River water is expected to reach Lake Powell through July. That’s less than a quarter of what’s considered normal.

Itโ€™s also much lower than the 2.3 million acre feet Moserโ€™s office projected a month ago, before the heat wave in the West melted away an already meager supply of snowpack.

โ€œWith record low snow pack, we have well below normal water supply forecasts,โ€œ he said. โ€œIn many cases, our April through July (water) volume forecasts rank in the lowest five on record when compared to historical observations.โ€

The forecast for how much water will reach Flaming Gorge Reservoir also dropped more than 20% since the last monthly projection. Flows for the Yampa River are also projected to be near the record low.

Moser added itโ€™s likely some rivers and streams in western Colorado have already reached their peak runoff for the year.

He said the water supply forecasts could improve if wet conditions arrive, or decline even further if the West remains dry.

The worsening river forecasts arrive as the seven states that use the waterway remain at an impasse this spring over how to share and conserve the water in the future.

Negotiators missed a February deadline to strike a deal but have said in recent weeks their talks are continuing with a focus on a potential short-term plan.

If states canโ€™t reach a deal, the Interior Department is expected to identify its preferred option for how to manage Lake Powell and Lake Mead after the current operating guidelines expire this fall.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told Arizona radio station KTAR News this week that the worsening spring runoff conditions are going to โ€œrequire everybody to dig in and take bigger cuts than they want, and we havenโ€™t reached that spot yet.โ€

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Interior secretary says ‘nobody will be happy’ with #ColoradoRiver decision — Tucson.com #COriver #aridification

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, center, speaks during a gathering with governors from six states in the Colorado River basin on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. Photo credit: Lowell Whitman/Department Of Interior

Click the link to read the article on the Tuscon.com website (Tony Davis). Here’s an excerpt:

April 8, 2026

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, pressed Monday to spell out how heโ€™ll handle the Colorado River’s water crisis, wouldn’t get specific but said repeatedly that โ€œnobody will be happyโ€ with how his department will split a rapidly dwindling supply of river water among the seven states, including Arizona, that want a piece of it. Speaking at a roundtable in the Tucson area populated by a host of public lands industry leaders and University of Arizona President Suresh Garimella, Burgum pledged to hand down a decision this month on the first of two crucial, divisive issues his office is confronting regarding the river.ย  That decision will beย how much water the Interior Department’s Bureau of Reclamationย will release from its upstream reservoirs in the four Upper Colorado River Basin states to head off a potential calamity in which Glen Canyon Dam, forming the boundary between the Upper and Lower Basins, would no longer receive enough water to continue generating electricity that serves customers in seven Western states.

The 100-Year Error: How Selective Science Drained the #ColoradoRiver — Bob Hembree (LakePowellChronicle.com) #COriver #aridification

The white bathtub ring clinging to the sandstone walls of Glen Canyon is more than a marker of a receding lake; it is a physical manifestation of a century-old accounting error. PHOTO BY BOB HEMBREE (MARCH 2019)

Click the link to read the article on the Lake Powell Chronicle website (Bob Hembree):

April 1, 2026

The white bathtub ring clinging to the sandstone walls of Glen Canyon is more than a marker of a receding lake; it is a physical manifestation of a century-old accounting error. For decades, the conventional story of the Colorado Riverโ€™s decline has been framed as a tragic stroke of bad luck. The narrative, popularized in modern classics likeย Cadillac Desert, suggests that the framers of the 1922 Colorado River Compact simply did their best with a limited record of “eighteen years of streamflow measurement” taken during an unusually wet “binge.”

However, emerging historical research and systems analysis tell a more complicated and troubling story. In their definitive study,ย Science Be Dammed, authors Eric Kuhn and John Fleck argue that the crisis we face in 2026 was not an accident of nature but a predictable consequence of “selective science.” The decision-makers of 1922 were not victims of ignorance; they were sophisticated professionals who chose to ignore inconvenient data in favor of a political vision that required the river to be larger than it actually was.

Eugene Clyde LaRue measuring the flow in Nankoweap Creek, 1923. Photo credit: USGS

The Inconvenient Hydrologist

As the seven basin states gathered at Bishopโ€™s Lodge in Santa Fe to carve up the river, they were joined by Eugene Clyde (E.C.) LaRue, a hydrologist for the U.S. Geological Survey. [Eric Kuhn responding to my X post, “Actually LaRue was never allowed to attend a Commission meeting. He asked, but Hoover said no.] LaRue presented the commissioners with a conclusion that threatened the very foundation of their negotiations. His data, which included early gauge records and historical flood markers, suggested that the riverโ€™s long-term average was approximately 15 million acre-feet (maf)

LaRue explicitly warned the commission that the period between 1905 and 1922 was a hydrological anomaly. Had the negotiators included the drier records from the late 1890s, the estimated annual flow would have dropped significantly. As Kuhn and Fleck note, the decision-makers had at their disposal a relatively thorough, almost modern picture of the river’s hydrology. They chose to ignore it because accepting LaRueโ€™s science might have left them with a flow too low to reach the compromises necessary to develop the West.

Members of the Colorado River Commission, in Santa Fe in 1922, after signing the Colorado River Compact. From left, W. S. Norviel (Arizona), Delph E. Carpenter (Colorado), Herbert Hoover (Secretary of Commerce and Chairman of Commission), R. E. Caldwell (Utah), Clarence C. Stetson (Executive Secretary of Commission), Stephen B. Davis, Jr. (New Mexico), Frank C. Emerson (Wyoming), W. F. McClure (California), and James G. Scrugham (Nevada) CREDIT: COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY WATER RESOURCES ARCHIVE via Aspen Journalism

Paper Water and the System Trap

By sidelining LaRue and enshrining a “paper water” figure of 16.4 million acre-feet into the Law of the River, the commissioners fell into a classic “system trap.” They created a legal stock of water rights that far exceeded the river’s physical flow. This inflated number was essential to the “reinforcing loop” of 20th-century growth. It provided the legal certainty needed to secure federal funding for massive infrastructure projects like the Hoover Dam and the Glen Canyon Dam.

This intentional overestimation created a massive “information delay.” For eighty years, the system appeared stable only because the Upper Basin states were slow to develop their shares, allowing their “unused” water to flow downstream. This masked the fundamental deficit, leading to a state of “overshoot” in which the regional economy came to depend on water that did not exist. Professor Rhett Larson describes the resulting legal framework as a system of “calling shotgun” that was excellent for settling a desert but is catastrophic for managing one in a time of scarcity.

The End of the Delay

Today, the “delay” has finally ended, and the “inconvenient science” of 1922 has become the undeniable reality of 2026. The river’s source is being further depleted by “aridification,” a process climate scientist Brad Udall describes as a “sponge above our head” that evaporates moisture before it can reach the streamflow. We are now witnessing the collision of a 100-year-old legal fiction with a 21st-century climate reality.

The current impasse between the Upper and Lower Basins is a symptom of “policy resistance,” where every actor is incentivized to protect their “paper” share even as the “wet” water disappears. As Professor Andrea Gerlak observes, if a system has 25 years to produce an agreement and fails, there is likely something fundamentally wrong with the system itself. Solving the crisis at Lake Powell will require more than engineering; it will require a paradigm shift that finally aligns our laws with the river’s actual physical limits.

A Drying #ColoradoRiver Threatens Imperial Valleyโ€™s Future: Declining flows and the warming climate imperil farms, green energy projects and the economy of one of #Californiaโ€™s poorest counties — Capitol & Main #COriver #aridification

The All American Canal, the largest diversion on the Colorado River, passes through Winterhaven, CA on its way to the Imperial Valley. The Colorado River is seen flowing next to it.

April 2, 2026

In the southeast cornerย of California, 300-foot-tall sand dunes rise from a sunbaked landscape dotted with ocotillo and creosote bushes. Summer temperatures here regularly exceed 110 degrees, andย annual rainfallย is comparable to that of the Sahara Desert. Despite its unforgiving terrain, more than 180,000 residents live in Imperial County, one of the countryโ€™s most productive agricultural regions and more recently a magnet for data center development and lithium extraction proposals. This has all been made possible by turn-of-the-20th century canals that carve up the region, supplying it with more than a million gallons of Colorado River water every minute.ย 

โ€œWeโ€™ve often called it the lifeblood of Imperial Valley,โ€ said Robert Schettler, a spokesperson for Imperial Irrigation District, the areaโ€™s public utility, which manages the regionโ€™s over 3,000 miles of drains and canals. โ€œIf something were to happen to that river, we would all have to pack up and leave.โ€

Somethingย isย happening to the Colorado River. Over the past century, its average water supply hasย fallen by nearly a thirdย due to prolonged drought andย climate change. Experts predict that decline will continue, threatening cities, tribes and farms that depend on the riverโ€™s flow, from Wyoming, Utah, Colorado and New Mexico to Arizona, Nevada and Northern Mexico.ย  Most of the Colorado Riverโ€™s waterย starts as snowpackย in the Rocky Mountains, but after the American West experienced the warmest winter ever recorded, snow levels are now atย historic lows, prompting experts to warn that 2026 may be one of the riverโ€™s driest years yet.ย 

That could spell disaster for Imperial County, whose harsh desert landscape of windblown sand and rugged burnt-orange mountains was transformed more than a century ago into productive, gridded farmland dotted with small cities such as Brawley, El Centro and Calexico…Imperial Valleyโ€™s agricultural industry consumes by far the largest share of water in the region,ย about 97% of the 3.1 million acre-feetย managed by the Imperial Irrigation District every year…Those ambitious and largely successful conservation efforts have come at a cost. Much of the water used by farmers historically flowed into the nearby Salton Sea, but as farmers have reduced their water use, less runoff has reached the man-made lake, accelerating an existing environmental crisis Over the last three decades, the Salton Sea hasย shrunk by more than 60 square miles, exposing a dry lakebed laden with pesticides, particulate matter and heavy metals. Those contaminants are carried as dust through the air into nearby communities, contributing to a childhood asthma rateย triple that of the national average. Now, farmers such as Brian Strahm, whose family has been growing crops in the area for four generations, are concerned they may have to decrease their water use further. That may prove difficult since farmers have already put in place many efficiency measures, Strahm said…Farmers say cuts could seriously harm the areaโ€™s already struggling economy. In addition to being the county with theย highest percentage of Latinosย in California, Imperial has among the highest unemployment rates of any county in the country, atย nearly 19%. For those who do find work, the agricultural industry offers a lifeline, accounting forย one out of every six jobsย in the region.ย 

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

#Colorado Must Adapt Its Water Rules for a Hotter, Drier Future — David Leach #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Colorado River “Beginnings”. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism

April 5, 2026

by David Leach

Coloradans often hear that the Colorado River crisis is happening somewhere else. Headlines focus on Lake Mead, Lake Powell, and the Lower Basin, while Colorado is portrayed as a responsible headwaters state doing its part. Yet that narrative misses a deeper truth. The Colorado River crisis is not only about drought or downstream shortages. It is also about how the river is managed. In that sense, Colorado shares responsibility with every basin state.

Coloradoโ€™s water system is built on โ€˜prior appropriationโ€™. The rule is simple: โ€œfirst in time, first in right.โ€ The earliest water users receive priority when supplies run low. This framework helped farmers, cities, and industries expand across the West during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, creating stability in a region where water determines survival.

However, the system was designed for a different climate and a by-gone West. It also encouraged states and water users to claim more water than the river could supply, contributing to the overallocation of the Colorado River. Legal analyses of the Law of the River show that the basin was effectivelyย overburdened by water claimsย decades before climate change began reducing flows.

Today, climate change is altering the river itself. Scientists estimate that warming temperatures have already reduced Colorado River flowsย by roughly 20 percent. Federalย water managers warnย that declines could continue as temperatures rise. In a river system that is already legally overcommitted, treating water rights as fixed privileges can deepen instability rather than prevent it.

Colorado sits at the center of this challenge. As the largest contributor of water in the Upper Basin, the state must balance many competing demands. Front Range cities continue to grow. Western Slope agriculture depends on reliable irrigation. Rivers and aquatic ecosystems are under stress. Yet much of Coloradoโ€™s water policy still assumes shortages are temporary and that legal priority alone will determine who receives water. That mindset often encourages defensive politics rather than shared problem-solving.

Conflicts between upstream and downstream states are often described as unavoidable. In reality, much of the tension stems from the priorities of management. Upper Basin states emphasize uncertainty about future river flows, while Lower Basin states focus on delivery obligations and infrastructure investments, according toย recent reports on Colorado River governance. Each group is acting logically within the current system. The problem is that the system frequently rewards delay and legal conflict rather than cooperation, asย researchers studying collaborative governanceย in the basin have found.

Colorado has an opportunity to change that pattern. Oneย promising approachย is collaborative adaptive management. This framework begins with a simple idea: uncertainty is normal in complex systems. Instead of assuming managers already know the right solution,ย adaptive managementย relies on monitoring conditions, learning from outcomes, and adjusting policies over time. With collaboration of states, tribes, farmers, cities, and environmental groups conflict can be reduced and management decisions can improve.

Some elements of this approach already exist in Colorado, including experimental reservoir operations and voluntary conservation programs. However,ย research on collaborative drought science planningย in the Colorado River Basin shows that these efforts remain limited and politically fragile.

Equity must also be part of Coloradoโ€™s leadership. For decades, Tribal nations and many rural communities have carried the environmental costs of water development while urban growth captured much of the benefit, a pattern highlighted in research onย environmental justice and Indigenous governance. Tribal nations, many of which hold some of the most senior water rights in the basin,ย remain underrepresentedย in major water decisions. Adaptive governance recognizes that whose knowledge it is that counts, matters. Incorporating Indigenous knowledge, local experience, and community-based monitoring can strengthen decisions and build trust in governance. Research shows that when affectedย communities help shape policies, those policies are more likely to be trusted, followed, and sustained over time.

Importantly, collaborative management does not mean abandoning Colorado water law or taking away private rights. Instead, it meansย updating water governanceย so users can share risk and adapt together as conditions change. The alternative – waiting for wetter years or relying on courts to resolve disputes – ignores both climate science and political reality. Climate projections fromย the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeย indicate that the American Southwest will likely remain hotter and drier for decades. Planning for a return to twentieth-century river flows is increasingly unrealistic.

Critics argue that collaboration takes too long when the crisis is already severe. Colorado has already tried temporary agreements, emergency negotiations, and federal pressure. Those approaches have not produced lasting solutions. Short-term deals may stabilize reservoirs for a season, but they do little to address the deeper management problems driving the crisis. Without stronger cooperation, the basin risks repeating the same cycle of shortage and conflict.

Colorado has long prided itself on practical problem-solving and environmental leadership. The state now has an opportunity to apply those values to its most important river. Policymakers should strengthen collaborative water governance, ensure meaningful Tribal participation, and support conservation policies that reward flexibility rather than litigation.

Coloradans also have a role to play. Public participation in basin planning, engagement with watershed organizations, and pressure on elected officials can help shift water policy toward long-term climate adaptation rather than short-term crisis response.

The Colorado River begins in our mountains. Leadership today means recognizing that rules built for a wetter past may no longer work in a hotter future – and choosing cooperation before the river forces the decision for us.


References

Anderson, Patrick J., Jeanne E. Godaire, Daniel K. Jones, William J. Andrews, Alicia A. Torregrosa, Meghan T. Bell, JoAnn M. Holloway, et al. 2025. โ€œCollaborative Drought Science Planning in the Colorado River Basin.โ€ย U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2025-1041.ย https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20251041.

Birnbaum, Simon. 2016. โ€œEnvironmental Co-governance, Legitimacy, and the Quest for Compliance: When and Why Is Stakeholder Participation Desirable?โ€.ย Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning,ย 18, no. 3, 306โ€“323.https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908X.2015.1077440

Ghaeminasab, Fateme. 2025. โ€œThe Legal Battle Over the Colorado River Compact: Revisiting Water Allocation Agreements.โ€ย Journal of Taxation and Regulatory Framework.ย https://lawjournals.celnet.in/index.php/jtrf/article/view/1735.

Hite, Kristen, Pervaze A. Sheikh, and Charles V. Stern. 2025. โ€œManagement of the Colorado River: Water Allocations, Drought, and the Federal Roleโ€.ย Congressional Research Service Report R45546.https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45546.ย 

Holling, C. S. 1978.ย Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. New York: Wiley.

IPCC. 2023.ย AR6 Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf.

Kuhn, Eric. 2024. โ€œThe Risks and Potential Impacts of a Colorado River Compact Curtailment on Colorado River In-Basin and Transmountain Water Rights Within Colorado.โ€ย Colorado Environmental Law Journal, 35.https://scholar.law.colorado.edu/celj/vol35/iss2/4.

Macdonnell, Lawrence. 2020. โ€œTribal Water Rights in the Colorado River Basinโ€. Colorado River Research Group.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339080311_Tribal_Water_Rights_in_the_Colorado_River_Basin.

Slosson, Mary. 2024. โ€œForce Majeure and the Law of the Colorado River: The Confluence of Climate Change, Contracts, and the Constitution.โ€ย University of Colorado Law Review, 95.https://lawreview.colorado.edu/print/volume-95/force-majeure-and-the-law-of-the-colorado-river-the-confluence-of-climate-change-contracts-and-the-constitution/.

Sullivan, Abigail, Dave D. White, and Michael Hanemann. 2019. โ€œDesigning Collaborative Governance: Insights from the Drought Contingency Planning Process for the Lower Colorado River Basin.โ€ย Environmental Science & Policy, 91: 39-49.ย https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.10.011.

Udall, Bradley and Overpeck, Jonathan. 2017. โ€œThe twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the futureโ€.ย Water Resources Research, 53, no. 3.https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016WR019638.

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. 2023.ย Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study.https://www.fws.gov/project/colorado-river-basin-water-study.

Williams, Byron K., Robert C. Szaro, and Carl D. Shapiro. 2009.ย Adaptive Management Technical Guide.https://www.doi.gov/sites/doi.gov/files/migrated/ppa/upload/TechGuide.pdf.

Whyte, Kyle P. 2018. โ€œSettler Colonialism, Ecology, and Environmental Injusticeโ€.ย Ecology and Society, 23, no. 2.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327455189_Settler_Colonialism_Ecology_and_Environmental_Injustice.


David Leach.

David is a Colorado Certified Water Professional and environmental scientist dedicated to protecting aquatic systems through rigorous data analysis, public service, and responsible resource management. He holds a bachelors degree in Biology from Western Colorado University and will graduate soon from the University of Denver with a Masters Degree in Environmental Policy and Management.

“The Situation is Dire”– Becky Mitchell, #Colorado’s Upper #ColoradoRiver Commissioner #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on Ken’s Substack (Ken Neubecker):

March 27, 2026

The February 14 deadline for the seven Colorado River Basin States to come up with an agreement on future management of the river is long gone, and still no agreement in sight. The deadline for submitting comments on the Bureau of Reclamations Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) is also past. Reclamation didnโ€™t have a โ€œpreferred alternativeโ€, which is not normal. They were hoping the States would have an agreement so that could become the preferred alternative. So they are left with their suite of six alternatives. All six are fraught with what Reclamation calls โ€œdecision making under deep uncertaintyโ€ (DMDU, they love acronyms).

That is an understatement.

No one seems to be very happy with any single proposed alternative. Some are calling for a new DEIS, or at least a Supplemental DEIS. This would only push any deadline further down the road. Reclamation is caught between a rock and a hard place.

The only real alternatives that they can implement without full approval by the States are No Action and the Basic Coordination Alternative. Both would be disastrous. They would simply be going back to how things were done prior to the 2007 Interim Guidelines and even earlier policies, none of which reflect the needs of the Colorado River we have today.

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map April 4, 2026.

Adding to that is the very dry record low snowpack in the Rockies. This annual winter snowpack is the ultimate water storage reservoir for the entire basin, from Pinedale, Wyoming, to Yuma, Arizona. It is what puts water into the two great reservoirs, Lakes Powell and Mead, that the Lower Basin desert states of California, Arizona and Nevada depend on. It is the only real reservoir that the needs of the arid Upper Basin states, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming depend on. This year that snowpack reservoir is as low as it has ever been, even eclipsing the former record year of 2002 when all this mega-drought started. The recent heat dome setting up over the Four Corners area is melting and sublimating what little snowpack there is fast.

Lakes Powell and Mead are already at very low levels, and the 1.7 maf projected inflow from spring runoff is looking smaller every day. Reclamation predicts that the water level in Lake Powell will drop to a point where no hydropower can be generated, power pool, by as soon as late July or at least in December. That, in effect, could be dead pool, with very limited releases from the lower โ€œriver outletโ€ tunnels. In effect, the flows from Lake Powell will become run of the river, what comes in is what goes out. No more storage for expected water deliveries downstream except what they might risk in lowering Lake Mead even more.

Needless to say this has sparked a war of words between the Upper and Lower Basins, with the Lower Basin being particularly vitriolic. As the February 14 deadline passed, JB Hamby of California declared โ€œThe 1922 Colorado River Compact requires the Upper Basin to deliver an average of 8.25 million acre-feet (maf) annually to the Lower Basin and Mexico. That delivery obligation is fixed in law, even if the river produces less water.โ€ Arizona has gone even further, declaring in TV ads that the water delivery is not only an obligation, but a โ€œguaranteeโ€ for delivery.

Huh??? Fixed in law and a guarantee? The reality of the river disagrees. The requirements of the Compact are, yes, written in law. On paper. It is โ€œpaper waterโ€, not real, or โ€œwetโ€ water. Coloradoโ€™s commissioner Becky Mitchell was more to the point, if less vitriolic, โ€œWe are being asked to solve a problem we didnโ€™t create, with water we do not have.โ€ At least someone understands the reality of the situation.

John Wesley Powell, the hero of the Colorado River was invited as the honored guest and keynote speaker at the second International Irrigation Congress, held in Los Angeles in 1893. He was held in high regard by the many boosters, speculators and people hoping to cash in with irrigated farms all across the Colorado River basin. After listening to what they were saying, Powell pocketed his prepared remarks and said,

โ€œWhen all the rivers are used, when all the creeks in the ravines, when all the brooks, when all the springs are used, when all the canyon waters are taken up, when all the artesian waters are taken up, when all the wells are sunk or dug that can be dug in all this arid region, there is still not sufficient water to irrigate all this arid region.โ€

The delegates didnโ€™t want to hear that. As they booed him off the stage he added,

โ€œI tell you gentlemen that you are piling up a heritage of conflict and litigation over water rights for there is not sufficient water to supply the land.โ€

Powell was right, but the boosters didnโ€™t listen. Many still arenโ€™t listening. Agricultural dreams have faded and new dreams of housing developments and data centers are taking their place. The boosters, in both Basins, are still booing reality off the stage. Dreams continue to grow as the river continues to shrink.

I read of fears that the Upper Basin will take advantage of Lower Basin cuts by taking more themselves. Really? From where? That vast winter snowpack reservoir that is expected to โ€œguaranteeโ€ so much water for the Lower Basin, to refill Powell and Mead, is the same shrinking reservoir that the Upper Basin depends on. Upper Basin diversions are being curtailed every year, not expanded. There isnโ€™t enough water. The Upper Colorado River Commissionโ€™s โ€œAmended 2016 Upper Division States Depletion Demand Scheduleโ€, published in June 2022, was used in BORโ€™s modeling of Upper Basin demands, but the optimistic projections of that report have never born fruit. The report is a projection of potential future depletions from the Upper Colorado River, but they are just that, projections. And relatively modest ones at that. The report begins with a resolution of the Commission that states,

WHEREASย Depletion Demand Schedules issued by the Commission are not a prediction of future water use or depletions. The Depletion Demand Schedules areย estimates that presume the continuation of the observed historically available supply and other demand driversย used for planning purposes and are useful for modeling purposes.

It is simply and estimate based on โ€œobserved historically available supplyโ€. Observation and history have made some changes to any anticipated future depletions. The report cites 5.7 maf as the current historical use as of 2022, with potential for increased depletions up to 5.8 maf in 2020 and 6.6 maf by 2070. In reality the annual depletion has dropped to 4 maf or less. With continued aridification and dwindling snowpack Upper Basin depletions will likely stagnate, if not decline. That is just the reality.

Under Colorado law, and constitution, the right to divert water to a beneficial use โ€œshall never be deniedโ€. What that means, as I stated in the previous post, is that anyone can dig a ditch or throw a small pump into any stream and divert water. New applications for water rights are filed every month with the Water Courts, and their decrees will likely be granted. That is again, all on paper. The reality is they probably wonโ€™t get much if any water. When the river is flowing high in the spring it is a โ€œfree riverโ€, meaning anyone can stick in their straw for a drink. But as soon as the first senior call is placed all that stops, and senior calls are happening earlier and earlier every year. And the local Water Commissioners, the ones who can shut down diversions, are getting busier.

The 1922 Compact has a fairly senior right on all streams and rivers in the Upper Basin. So far, the non-depletion requirement for flows averaging 75 maf over a ten year running average hasnโ€™t been breached. Lake Powell will probably hit power pool or worse before then.

The difference between the demands, hopes, and fantasies of paper water and the hard reality of actual wet water are growing starker every winter and have been since the three giant reservoirs, Powell, Mead and the winter snowpack, have shrunk over the past 25 years. Nature doesnโ€™t care much about paper, reports, lawyers or the dreams of boosters past and present. She always wins in the end.

And as Becky Mitchell, said, litigation wonโ€™t create any new water.

A correction/addition to my previous post about misunderstandings on the Colorado River

I need to make a correction on my previous post. The three large Upper Basinโ€™s reservoirs, Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navajo do provide some water for Upper Basin use, especially Navajo, which provides water to the San Juan-Chama diversion to the Rio Grande basin and Albuquerque. It supplies on average 91 kaf of diverted water. It is expected that there will be no diversion this year. Navajo also provides water for Tribal use to the Navaho and Jicarilla Apachie. Downstream flows from Flaming Gorge, the largest of the three can provide smaller amounts for hay fields in Browns Park and the melons in Green River, but thatโ€™s pretty small too. Blue Mesa releases can benefit the Gunnison Tunnel diversions and Redlands downstream, but both are well senior to the Compact.

I knew better.

The main storage of the three reservoirs is still primarily as that Compact compliance savings account, and they will be called upon soon to bolster the levels of Lake Powell, where the inflow from runoff projection is dropping below 2 maf. If things keep going like this for another few weeks it will likely be lower.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

2026 Rio Grande State of the Basin Symposium recap #2026RioGrande #RioGrande

Rio Grande levy near Alamosa, November 2024. Photo credit: The Alamosa Citizen

The theme this year was “Where Water Connects Us: Past Meets Present in the San Luis Valley”. Paul Formisano and the staff and volunteers from the Salazar Rio Grande del Norte Center delivered a varied, timely and interesting agenda!

San Luis People’s Ditch March 17, 2018. Photo credit: Greg Hobbs

Ken Salazar set the stage for the sessions, reminding attendees that, “Early settlers knew the only way to bring prosperity to the valley was to do it collectively as the early acequias did.”

Upper Rio Grande snowpack March 29, 2026. Credit: NRCS

The first session was titled, “State of the Rio: The 2026 river outlook general basin and compact projections” and the general consensus from the speakers was, as Brad Udall recently said about the Upper Colorado River Basin, “There is no historical analog,” for these conditions. Snow drought is front and center in the San Luis Valley these days.

Upper Rio Grande accumulated precipitation March 29, 2026. Credit: NRCS

Precipitation in the basin started out the water year in great shape due to a big rain event in early October. Since then there have been modest accumulations but has flattened out since late February to date.

Colorado SNOTEL basin-filled snowpack map March 28, 2026. Credit: NRCS

Division Engineer Craig Cotten started off his presentation with the basin-filled snowpack map for Colorado. He joked that, “The good news is, the Rio Grande is not the worst in the state.” It is not a good year as far as #snowpack and many SNOTEL locations are already melted-out.

Slide credit: Craig Cotten

Projected streamflow is not looking good and the forecast will likely be worse when the April 1, 2026 numbers are released by the NRCS. However, streamflow right now is looking okay, there is a lot of water in the #RioGrande at this time for example. That means that the little snowpack in the basin is already coming off.

Slide credit: Craig Cotten

Reservoir storage is in good shape (as a percent of average) except Sanchez Reservoir which has been drawn down for maintenance and repairs.

Current compliance numbers for the Rio Grande Compact from Craig Cotten. Photo credit: Chris Lopez/Alamosa Citizen

Colorado’s Rio Grande Compact compliance numbers heading into the scary diversion season are a positive. There is no debt owed to New Mexico and Texas. With the early onset to runoff season the State Engineer allowed irrigation to start on March 23, 2026. Current estimated streamflow for the Rio Grande at Del Norte (the compact USGS gage used for the river) is 305,000 acre-feet which carries a compact obligation of 76,000 acre-feet to New Mexico and Texas. For the Conejos River the estimated upper index annual flow is 165,000 acre-feet and the downstream obligation is 27,500 acre-feet. However, water levels are going to drop in the unconfined aquifer significantly this year due to low flows in the river. The situation in the aquifer is bad and it is going to get worse.

Cotten updated the attendees about the Rio Grande Compact lawsuit status. It is mostly a fight between Texas and New Mexico and the latest stipulated agreement has been approved by the Special Master. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to approve the agreement.

Nathan Coombs, in keepting with the symposium theme said, “I believe we’re going to be alright this season we’re going to survive. People in the San Luis Valley are working together and we’re going to get through it.”

Slide credit: Heather Dutton

Heather Dutton gave an overview of reservoir operations for 2026. It is possible that all irrigation water will be released in April and May. She added, “If you’re going to fish the streams emphasize fishing in the morning and visit one of our valley breweries in the afternoon. It’s going to be tough year for all of us. Please keep the farmers in mind.”

Reclamation informed attendees about the current status of the Closed Basin Project. Project priorities are:

  • Colorado’s compact deliveries
  • Mitigation for construction and pumping
  • Eliminate Colorado’s Rio Grande Compact deficit
  • Other beneficial uses/irrigation
Slide from Amber Pacheco

The session “Twenty years of subdistricts” illustrated how the well owners have been working together over the years to determine a solution to the declining unconfined aquifer. Because groundwater is not separate from surface water the lowered levels in the aquifer affect surface streamflow in the Rio Grande. Valley pumpers have formed several sub-districts fashioned around the different hydrology in areas of the aquifer and are retiring some wells and taking land out of production. Another strategy used has been o develop augmentation plans to offset pumping. All of the strategies involve fees to sub-district members. There is extensive coverage of the issue on Coyote Gulch if you are interested in taking a trip down memory lane.

Slide credit: Rachel James

The session “Flowing together: Agriculture, rivers, and communities in partnership” was an overview of collaboration between the City of Alamosa, the West Side Ditch, and Rio Grande Headwaters Restoration Project on the river at the east side of Alamosa. It included a new headgate for the ditch company and will include a new levy orientation and access to the river from Cole Park. The speakers emphasized that it would not have happened without collaboration and the emphasis on creating a win for all stakeholders. For example, Bill Schoen credited the Rio Grande Headwaters Restoration Project for finding funding for the new headgate which is often a problem for mutual ditch companies. Daniel Boyes of the Restoration Project said that the new headgate helps fish and safety for boaters.

Rio Grande, Colorado | National Park Service

The final session before the keynote was “Perspectives on valley recreation” where access to public lands and the value of building a recreation economy to bolster valley opportunities were discussed. While 39% of Colorado’s agricultural output is from the valley economic activity is seasonal. The discussion centered around bringing tourism to the valley to improve the outlook for employment and economic growth.

The keynote speaker was Ben Golfarb and it was a real treat. I never tire of learning about “Nature’s Engineers” and the amazing effect this keystone species has on hydrology and habitat. Trapped extensively by fur traders to enable the fashion industry in the 19th century the species was nearly extirpated from the North American West. Along with a torrent of information and photographs, Goldfarb informed attendees that the native tribes did not participate in trapping because of their understanding of beaver’s role in the arid lands.

Rio Grande and Pecos River basins. Map credit: By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, drainage basin from GTOPO [1], U.S. stream from the National Atlas [2], all other features from Vector Map., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=11218868

Reclamation needs 1.7 million acre-feet to save #LakePowell this year — The #Aspen Daily News

Click the link to read the article on The Aspen Daily News website (Austin Corona). Here’s an excerpt:

March 25, 2026

River managers need to conserve around 1.7 million acre-feet in Lake Powell to keep the reservoir from dropping below hydropower turbines this year, according to federal government projections. The Bureau of Reclamation, a federal agency that manages dams on the Colorado River, has estimated that reservoir levels could fall below required elevations for hydropower production before August as record-low snowpack turns into pitiful flows in streams and rivers. 

โ€œThe situation is dire, the stakes have never been higher, and the reservoirs have never been drier,โ€ Estevan Lopez, New Mexicoโ€™s negotiator on interstate Colorado River matters, said during a meeting of the Upper Colorado River Commission on Tuesday [March 24, 2026].

The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson

If water levels fall below required levels for hydropower production, dam managers will be forced to release water through bypass tubes, which are not designed for sustained, high-volume flows. With too much use, the bypasses could fail, turning the dam into a massive plug in the river and shutting off downstream flows. To keep Powell above those critical levels, federal officials can either fill it with water from upstream reservoirs, including some in Colorado, or they can reduce the water it drains from Powell and sends to the Lower Basin (California, Arizona and New Mexico). States are already expressing their views on how those operations should work.ย  Upper Colorado River basin states, including Colorado, want the federal government to achieve the conservation requirement by reducing water releases to downstream states, at least in part. Upper Basin states say upstream reservoirs arenโ€™t enough to save Powell without cuts to Lower Basin water deliveries. Draining the upstream reservoirs could also leave the system without backup supplies in the event of another dry year…The three primary reservoirs that could prop up Powell are Flaming Gorge in Wyoming, Navajo Reservoir in New Mexico, and Blue Mesa Reservoir near Gunnison, Colorado. Of the three, only Flaming Gorge is large enough to contribute the entire 1.7 million acre-feet on its own, and that would require draining the reservoir to halfway full.ย  Blue Mesa and Navajo already stand at around halfway full, and the two reservoirs likely could not provide the water to save Lake Powell even if both were entirely drained.

Colorado River “Beginnings”. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism

#ColoradoRiver Remains in Crisis with Continued Uncertainty on Water Supply and Operations — Jennifer Pitt (Audubon.org) #COriver #aridification

American White Pelican and Double-crested Cormorant at Bill Williams Wildlife Refuge along the Colorado River, Arizona. Photo: Gary Moore/Audubon Photography Awards

Click the link to read the article on the Audubon website (Jennifer Pitt):

March 20, 2026

Audubon and partners cut through the conflict with a unique, basinwide perspective, championing the riverโ€™s health for the people and birds that rely on it.

The winter of 2025-2026 has not been kind to the Colorado River. Record-warm temperatures day after day across the mountains that feed the river have led to record-low snow levels. All indications are that spring snowmelt feeding the river will be scant.

That is a huge problem, because Colorado River reservoirs, which historically held vast water reserves, are already depleted, with Lake Powell at 25% and Lake Mead at 34% of capacity. This is bad news for people and birds relying on water from the Colorado River. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), the federal agency managing the dams, projects that Lake Powellโ€™s water levels could fall low enough to threaten Glen Canyon Damโ€™s infrastructure, downstream water delivery, hydropower, and native wildlife in the Grand Canyon including the California Condor and the Western Yellow-billed Cuckoo,  among others.

As this crisis plays out, Reclamation has the difficult job of re-tooling systemwide, long-term dam operations on the Colorado River (often referred to as the โ€œPost-2026 Guidelinesโ€). Existing rules, first set nearly two decades ago and tweaked repeatedly to keep up with the declining Colorado River (the result of a warmer and drier climate), expire at the end of this year. As anticipated under this timeline, Reclamation issued a Draft Environmental Impact Statement (Draft EIS) in late January which laid out potential alternatives for federal management and solicited comments from stakeholders. This Draft EIS embraced uncertainty as a central planning condition as they tested different approaches under a broad range of hydrologic conditions. For a long time, the expectation was that the seven U.S. states sharing the river (Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming) would develop aย consensus-based proposalย for Reclamation, but that hasnโ€™t happened and talk of litigation has increased.

Southwestern Willow flycatcher

Reclamation must now figure out next steps. The agency does have legal authorities, but those legal authorities were crafted long ago and do not necessarily spell out how to take meaningful action in this historic crisis. That threatens the water supply for more than 35 million people including the major cities of the American Southwest, Tribes, millions of acres of irrigated farms and ranches, as well asย the Colorado River itselfย and every living thing that depends on its habitats, including hundreds of bird species like the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher, Yuma Ridgwayโ€™s Rail, and Summer Tanager.

This is a graph of snowpack above LakePowell using 104 snow measuring stations. It was 9 inches of water on March 7, now 6 inches. Other dry years shown.There is no historical analog to this โ€” Brad Udall

Audubon submitted formal comments in response to the Draft EIS, joining conservation partners to weigh in on what comes next for Reclamationโ€™s consideration (read our comment letter here). Dozens of comments were submitted by the Colorado River Basin states, water users, and other stakeholdersย making their case with Reclamation thatย theirย water uses need to be protected at the expense of others. In its comments Audubon emphasized the need to stabilize the Colorado River system from its headwaters to its deltaโ€”a unique, basinwide perspective that urges Reclamation to manage risks for people and nature rather than deferring hard decisions until emergency conditions force action. Our comment letter focused on constructive engagement noting the Draft EISโ€™s strengths in its analytical foundation while identifying and describing targeted refinements that would help ensure the Final EIS fully informs decision-makers about risks and real-world consequences. Specifically, Audubon calls for:

  • Clarity and predictability
  • Flexible, adaptive tools for conserving, storing, and managing water
  • Environmental stewardship embedded into operations
  • Meaningful and voluntary Tribal participation
  • Pathways for advancing in-basin mitigation and resilience-building opportunities
  • Pathways for advancingย binational cooperation with Mexico

Over the next few months, Reclamation still has an opportunity to persuade the Colorado River Basin states into consensus. Whether or not they are successful (and we hope they are), sometime this summer we expect Reclamation to issue a Final EIS that includes refinements to the Draft as well as an indication of their preferred alternative for Colorado River operations. In the meantime, it is urgent Reclamation also prepare for the water supply emergency that is unfolding in 2026.

For much of the last century, Reclamation was a leader in developing the southwestern United States by harnessing the Colorado River and delivering its water across the land. Today, Reclamation must lead in a new way, helping everyone and everything that depends on the Colorado River live with the river we have in a warmer, drier world.


DOWNLOADABLE RESOURCES

CoalitionComment ColoradoRiverDraft EIS.pdf

Coalition Technical Comment Letter Responsive to Colorado River Draft EIS

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Grim outlook: #Colorado faces limited water supply after record-low #snowpack — Russ Schumacher (Colorado Climate Center) #runoff

Lake Dillon, a reservoir in Coloradoโ€™s Summit County, is owned and managed by Denver Water and supplies water to people living in Metro Denver. It is Denver Waterโ€™s largest reservoir and provides about 40% of Metro Denver water. A 23-mile-long trans-basin diversion pipeline, called the Harold D. Roberts Tunnel, carries water from the reservoir under the Continental Divide to Denver. Photo credit: Colorado State University

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado State University website (Russ Schumacher):

March 25, 2026

Each day during the winter and spring, one of the first things I look at is the U.S. Department of Agricultureโ€™s website that shows the current status of the snowpack in Coloradoโ€™s mountains.

Maybe that sounds like the strange habit of a state climatologist, but Iโ€™m far from the only one. Why? Because the snow that falls in our stateโ€™s mountains will, when it melts in the spring and summer, become a large portion of the water supply for tens of millions of people.

Those people arenโ€™t only here in Colorado, but are in other states, Tribal nations, and Mexico, drawing their water from the rivers that originate in Colorado. Mountain snow is essential for our winter recreation industry, for farms and ranches that grow our food, for drinking water, for ecosystem health, and much more.

It hasnโ€™t been a pretty sight when I have opened that USDA website each morning this winter. In an average year, our mountains get a lot of snow: In places like the Park Range, the West Elk Mountains or the San Juans, a typical year brings hundreds of inches of snow, carrying more than 40 inches of liquid water. This year, we struggled to get half that. Now, after an unprecedented heat wave in March, the snow is already disappearing quickly.

Figure 1: Map of annual average precipitation over 1991-2020 in Colorado, with color scale matching the colors in the state flag. Data from the PRISM Climate Group. Credit: Colorado Climate Center

As of March 25, averaged across 115 stations in Coloradoโ€™s mountains, the snow water equivalent was just 38% of the 1991-2020 average. (The snow water equivalent is the amount of water stored in the snowpack.) This represents the lowest snowpack in more than 40 years โ€“ and possibly ever โ€“ in Coloradoโ€™s mountains. Conditions havenโ€™t been any better along the Front Range and Eastern Plains, which have also lagged far behind the average amount of snowfall.

Figure 2: Statewide snow water equivalent from the SNOTEL network, as of March 25, 2026. The median over 1991-2020 is shown with the green line, the historical range is shown from red (low) to blue (high), and this year is shown in the black line. From USDA/NRCS.

There have been other major snow droughts in the past, notably the winters of 1976-1977 and 1980-1981, that threatened the ski industry and resulted in record-low streamflow on some of Coloradoโ€™s rivers. But this snow season has been unrivaled in its warmth. The first five months of the water year โ€“ from October through February โ€“ were Coloradoโ€™s warmest on record by a large margin. And itโ€™s almost certain that we are in the midst of the warmest March on record as well.

The warmth has been remarkably persistent, as relentless ridges of high pressure have prevented the usual snowstorms from moving into the state. The Fort Collins weather station at Colorado State University recorded an astonishing 43 days with a high temperature of 60ยฐF or above during climatological winter (December through February). The previous record, from records dating back to the late 19th century, was 22. Starting March 18, Fort Collins had temperatures higher than had ever been observed in March, four days in a row. This was capped by a high of 91ยฐF on March 21; there had never previously been a 90-degree day in Fort Collins before May.

Figure 3: Number of winter days with high temperatures of 60ยฐF or above at the official Fort Collins weather station on the CSU campus. Winter 2025-2026 had 43 days, far more than the previous record of 22 in 1980-1981. Credit: Colorado Climate Center

Records for March were smashed across the state and the western U.S., at both low and high elevations. One thing we do as state climatologists is put current conditions into historical context, as usually with some investigation, itโ€™s possible to find a past analog to what weโ€™re experiencing now. But the intense and prolonged heat has been unlike anything previously observed in March.

This, of course, is occurring in the context of a long-term trend toward warmer conditions, both globally and locally, largely attributable to increases in greenhouse gases. Per data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, nine of the 11 warmest years in Colorado records have occurred since 2012, and Colorado has now warmed by 3ยฐF since the 1890s. Droughts come and go, and they have always been a challenge in Colorado and the West. But warming is making them more likely and more intense. In other words, climate change is water change.

When above-average temperatures and precipitation deficits stack up over the course of months, we start to see drought conditions develop or worsen. The impacts of drought are wide-ranging and include economic and agricultural repercussions. Farmers and ranchers may face lower crop yields and higher costs of feeding livestock. A snow drought like this winterโ€™s can reduce outdoor recreation opportunities and hurt the stateโ€™s tourism industry. Drought years also tend to be years with more and larger wildfires.

Drought impacts can be felt a long distance from where the precipitation deficits occur. For example, southeastern Colorado received decent precipitation this winter, but low snow in the mountains hundreds of miles away near Leadville means less water on the Arkansas River, an important source for farmers in southeastern Colorado.

As each winter progresses, even if the mountain snowpack isnโ€™t looking great, we can always look ahead to March and April as the time when big storms are possible and the deficits can be made up. Unfortunately, this year has been just the opposite: Instead of much-needed snowstorms, weโ€™re in an unprecedented March heat wave that is accelerating the melting of what little snow is there. The chances of getting back into the range of average have dwindled away, and if the weather pattern doesnโ€™t turn around in April, we may be headed for uncharted territory for Colorado water.

Colorado SNOTEL basin-filled map March 22, 2026.

#Arizona hires high-powered law firm, setting the stage for a legal battle over #ColoradoRiver water — Caitlin Sievers (AZMirror.com)

The sun rises over Lake Powell in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, in Page, Arizona. Lake Powell, a critical Colorado River reservoir, is only at a third of its capacity as drought conditions in the Southwest worsen. CREDIT: ECOFLIGHT

Click the link to read the article on the AZMirror website (Caitlin Sievers):

March 23, 2026

Arizona is preparing for a legal battle over its rights to Colorado River water.

Following an extraordinarily dry winter along the river basin and whatโ€™s expected to be an exceptionally hot and dry spring across the West, where high temperatures in March have already blown past records, the pressure to maintain access to the stateโ€™s fair share of river water is growing. 

The Colorado River is a vital source of drinking water for 40 million people in the seven basin states, Mexico and 30 Native American tribes, and provides water for farming operations and hydroelectricity. 

Reaching a water usage agreement is imperative to the basin states as the riverโ€™s water supply continues to decline, as it has done for the past 25 years due to a persistent drought spurred on by climate change. 

On Monday, the Arizona Governorโ€™s Office announced that it had retained the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell to represent the state in possible litigation among the Colorado River Basin states and the federal government. 

Sullivan & Cromwell is an international firm based in New York City that has represented big names like Microsoft, BP, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. The state is using some of the $3 million it put into its Colorado River legal defense fund last year to retain the law firm.

The Governorโ€™s Office doesnโ€™t expect to take any legal action until June at the earliest, but wants to be prepared for the possibility, especially if the dispute ends up before the U.S. Supreme Court. 

The Lower Basin states โ€” Arizona, Nevada and California โ€” and the Upper Basin states โ€” Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming โ€” have been negotiating an updated water usage agreement for more than two years.

But so far the states have blown past two deadlines to do so โ€” one in November and one in February โ€” and are quickly approaching October, when the existing usage agreement expires. 

If the states canโ€™t reach an agreement before that, the federal government will implement one of its draft plans, all of which would place an outsized burden on the Grand Canyon State.

Thatโ€™s because the Central Arizona Project, a series of canals that supplies Colorado River water to the Valley and the Tucson area, is one of the newest users of the river water, making it legally one of the first to be cut. 

But so far, the Upper Basin states have refused to agree to any water usage cuts of their own, while the Lower Basin states insist that every state take their fair share.

Arizona has offered to reduce its Colorado River allocation by 27%, California by 10%, and Nevada by nearly 17%. 

Negotiators for Arizona also insist that the Upper Basin states be held to the original 1922 Colorado River Compact that requires them to release a 10-year rolling average of at least 75 million acre-feet of water to the Lower Basin, in addition to one-half of the annual allotment owed to Mexico, for a total of about 80.2 million acre-feet. 

An acre-foot of water represents enough to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot, or about 325,851 gallons. Thatโ€™s enough to provide three homes in Arizona a year of water, on average.

So far, the Upper Basin states have held to the original release agreement. But as water levels in the two major reservoirs on the river, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, continue to decline, itโ€™s expected that the Upper Basin states will be unable to meet that requirement as early as 2027. 

When the states entered into the original Colorado River Compact in 1922, they allocated 7.5 million acre-feet of water each year to be shared by the Upper Basin states and another 7.5 million to be used among the Lower Basin states. 

Since then, the states have updated their water usage guidelines several times, even though the apportionments remain the same. But Lower Basin states face mandatory cuts during times of drought and Upper Basin states do not. In 2025, for the fifth year in a row, the federal government imposed drought-based cuts, and Arizonaโ€™s amounted to a loss of 512,000 acre-feet of water for the year.

Under current allocations, Arizona has rights to 2.8 million acre feet of water per year, and has implemented 800,000 acre feet in reductions per year. In contrast, Colorado has rights to 3.8 million acre feet a year, although it uses an average of 1.9 million acre feet, annually. 

The amount of water that Colorado has access to can be unpredictable because it relies mostly on melted snowpack for its water, which varies from year to year. This yearโ€™s snowpack levels are historically low.

The Lower Basin states have undertaken significant conservation efforts for Colorado River water since 2014 and have reduced their consumption from 7.4 million acre-feet in 2015 to just over 6 million in 2024.

The Upper Basin states have increased their usage in the past five years, from 3.9 million acre-feet in 2021 to 4.4 million in 2024. The federal governmentโ€™s draft plans allow for the Upper Basin states to use even more water.

Gov. Katie Hobbsโ€™s proposed budget for this year would put another $1 million toward the Colorado River Legal Defense fund, and lawmakers earlier this month gave preliminary approval to doing just that.

Even as Arizona prepares for a legal battle, the state plans to continue attempting to reach an agreement with the other river basin states, according to the Governorโ€™s Office. 

โ€œGovernor Hobbs is committed to working with the federal government and other Colorado River states to deliver a negotiated settlement that protects Arizonaโ€™s fair share of water and stabilizes the system,โ€ spokesman for Hobbs Christian Slater said. โ€œHowever, itโ€™s critical that Arizona be prepared to defend ourselves in court if an agreement cannot be reached or the Law of the River is violated.โ€

The #ColoradoRiver and the Tragedy of the Anti-Commons — John Fleck (InkStain.net) #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the InkStain website (John Fleck):

March 18, 2026

Some notes on the current state of the Colorado Riverโ€ฆ

Iโ€™m preparing for a panel discussion this evening in Albuquerque. I promised โ€“ three-finger promise, Scoutโ€™s honor, which still means something to me โ€“ that I wouldnโ€™t use any swear words., either in the blog post or the panel discussion.

The state of the water

  • Per the latest numbers from my colleague/collaborator/friend Jack Schmidt, Lake Powell currently holds 1.57 million acre feet of water above the protect-the-infrastructure no-go line of elevation 3,500.
  • Storage at this point in the year is similar to 2022, when we began a hair-about-to-be-on-fire drill as Interior raced to figure out how to protect Glen Canyon Dam because of newly understood (or newly publicly understood) risks of dropping below minimum power pool and using the damโ€™s outlook works. That constraint still holds.
  • The forecast this year is a catastrophe compared to 2022: 1.75 million acre feet for the 2026 runoff season, compared to 3.8 maf in the 2022 runoff season. [ed. emphasis mine]
  • The result, according to theย most probableย forecast from Reclamation, is that absent some sort of action (see governance below) Powell will drop below 3,500 in September, and stay that way until the spring runoff in 2027.
  • According to theย min probableย forecast, which is realistic given the looming heat-pocalypse, we hit 3,500 by July and stay there forever (by which I mean as far as the current 24-month forecast runs โ€“ as the late Jim Morison wrote, the futureโ€™s uncertain and the end is always near).

The state of the governance

The state of the governance nests two separate by closely linked problems: near term actions and long term rules.

Near term actions

Protecting Glen Canyon Dam from that 3,500 no-go line requires coming up with a least 2 million acre feet of water over the next two years โ€“ to get us past that spring 2027 problem described above. There are two ways to do this. The first is to release a bunch of water from upstream, primarily Flaming Gorge Reservoir. How much? Dunno. The second is to cut releases from Glen Canyon Dam, reducing flows through the Grand Canyon and into Lake Mead. How much? Dunno, though we may find out soon.

The current rules, adopted in response to the challenges of 2022-23, allows releases from Glen Canyon Dam to drop this year to 6 million acre feet, which effectively gets 1.5 million of the needed 2 million feet from Lake Mead by reducing releases thereto. Another 500,000 in releases from upstream reservoir gets you 2 million acre feet, with room to do more if the hydrology gets even worse โ€“ which it might.

Longer term actions

The longer term stuff is where, as a student of governance, this gets really interesting for me. As a citizen of the basin, I am inclined to swear words at the dysfunction that has left us with no long term plan beyond the end of this year. But I Scoutโ€™s honor promised, so shifting to the โ€œstudent of governanceโ€ schtick gives me a view from nowhereway to approach this dispassionately, without the, yโ€™know, words that would have made Mr. Vinatieri, my Scoutmaster, disappointed in me.

Others have chronicled the failure of the seven U.S. Colorado River Basin states to come to a consensus agreement on a set of river operating rules, we need not repeat that here, other than to note that what we have here is a classic case of what has been called the tragedy of the anticommons. This is a situation where many people or entities โ€“ in this case the states of the Colorado River Basin โ€“ each have the power to block a solution that might be to the benefit of the community as a whole. In this case, each of the seven states of the Colorado River Basin have blocking power over solutions that would prevent the reservoirs from crashing.

See above: the reservoirs are crashing and we have no plan to prevent it because any proposal that might prevent it has been blocked by one or more states that object.

The reason behind this is a set of rules written beginning in the 1920s governing the river โ€“ the Colorado River Compact and a series of ad hoc additions that followed โ€“ that attempted to lay out rules for managing the river but failed to include functional processes for modifying the rules when they proved inadequate to changing the situation. Weโ€™re now stuck with a system under which each of the seven basin states has blocking power over any attempt to change the rules.

This violates one of the fundamental institutional design principles identified by the late Elinor Ostrom, who taught us so much about how we succeed or fail in overcoming the tragedy of the commons: โ€œHow will the rules โ€ฆ be changed over time with changes in the performance of the resource system, the strategies of participants, and external opportunities and constraints?โ€ We have to have rules about how we rewrite the rules. We lack that.

Despite this, we have succeeded in the past, in a series of rule-writing exercises that began in the late 1990s, by depending on principled actors at the state level recognizing that they needed to balance their need to protect their own communityโ€™s water supplies against the need to solve problems at the scale of the basin as a whole.

My personal values on this question are both instrumental (things that I think are in the best interests of myself and my community) and deontological (things that I think are fundamental moral principles). The second first: I think we have ethical obligations to those upstream and downstream of us in shared river basins. This is, for me, fundamental. The second is instrumental โ€“ I think compromise is in the best interests of my communityโ€™s water supply and therefore its future, because if we end up in litigation and the system crashes, we stand to lose a lot more than if we compromise, are willing to act on our obligations to our downstream neighbors by using less ourselves.

The last two years of increasingly hostile negotiations among the states make clear that behavior that recognizes those principles is gone, replaced by interpersonal bickering and a game of chicken driving the basin toward litigation (effectively hoping to manage the basin by convincing a judge of our preferred interpretation of ambiguous rules written a century ago) and reservoir collapse.

Thar be dragons.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

#ColoradoRiver negotiations resume with focus on stopgap measure in face of worsening hydrology — Scott Franz (KUNC.org) #COriver #aridification

Sunlight glimmers on the Colorado River near Page, Arizona on Nov. 2, 2022. Alex Hager/KUNC

Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Scott Franz):

March 20, 2026

This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.

Critical negotiations about the future of the Colorado River took a two week hiatus last month after the seven states in the basin missed a key Valentineโ€™s Day deadline for striking a deal, New Mexicoโ€™s water negotiator said Thursday.

Estevan Lรณpez said talks resumed March 2, and the upper and lower basin states are using a short-term pitch from Nevada as a starting point.

โ€œRight now, we’re in discussions with the lower basin about a potential short-term agreement,โ€ Lopez told New Mexico’s Interstate Stream Commission. 

Nevada is proposing to increase water releases from upper basin reservoirs like Flaming Gorge by at least 500,000 acre feet to help prevent Lake Powell from dropping too low.

The latest forecasts predict that Powell could drop enough to stop producing hydropower by December.

In return, lower basin states would agree to cut their water use by 1.25 million acre feet โ€œuntil system conditions have meaningfully improved.โ€

Lรณpez said upper basin states had a counter proposal and talks about it were scheduled on Thursday afternoon.

โ€œThe hydrology right now is incredibly dire,โ€ Lรณpez said. โ€œSo we’re beginning for this year, for the remainder of this water year, we’re suggesting that there needs to be a release from the upper initial units, most likely Flaming Gorge, since that’s the reservoir that’s largest and has the most water. And we are anticipating that there will be a release of half a million acre feet from Flaming Gorge to prop up Lake Powell.โ€

Meanwhile, the Interior Department is reviewing thousands of comments it received on a range of options for how to manage the vital waterway.

The alternatives were published in January and could result in a variety of scenarios, ranging from significant water reductions in lower basin states to creating new incentives for states to conserve water.

And after the states missed two deadlines to reach an agreement, itโ€™s becoming increasingly likely the federal government will try to piece together its own plan before the current guidelines expire in the fall.

Water negotiators are also facing a worsening water supply forecast with record low snowpack across the West.

A map shows how much water is predicted to arrive at certain locations in the Colorado River basin as of a March 1 forecast.

Cody Moser with the federal Colorado Basin River Forecast Center said last week just 2.3 million acre feet of Colorado River water is expected to reach Lake Powell through July. Thatโ€™s about a third of whatโ€™s considered normal.

โ€œYou’ll notice it’s not a pretty picture here with lots of reds,โ€ he said as he presented a color coded map of how much water is expected to reach certain locations in the river basin. โ€œThat’s 50 to 70% of normal April through July runoff. Those maroon colors are 30 to 50% and we even have some of those pinks, which indicates less than 30% normal seasonal spring runoff.โ€

An attorney for New Mexico’s Interstate Stream Commission said Thursday the state expects the Interior Department to identify a preferred option for managing the dwindling river by July. The current operating guidelines for Lake Powell and Lake Mead expire in the fall. 

Map credit: AGU

Why Colorado River negotiations stalled, and how they could resume with the possibility ofย agreement — Karen Schlatter and Sharon B. Megdal (TheConversation.com)

The reservoir behind the Glen Canyon Dam is extremely low. Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Karen Schlatter, Colorado State University and Sharon B. Megdal, University of Arizona

The seven U.S. states that make up the Colorado River basin are struggling to agree on how best to manage the riverโ€™s water as its supply dwindles due to climate change and a period of prolonged drought. Their negotiations, which are not open to the public, missed a Feb. 14, 2026, deadline the federal government had established, after which federal officials said they would impose their own plan.

The federal government has not yet done so, but the prospect of such an action is not good news for the nearly 40 million people who depend on the Colorado River for water, energy, agriculture and recreation, nor for the estimated US$1.4 trillion in economic activity the river supports.

We have led or participated in complex water management discussions from the riverโ€™s headwaters in Colorado to its delta in Mexico and elsewhere in the arid Southwest and around the world. Even on less contentious issues, the keys to success involve learning together, understanding one anotherโ€™s interests, working through conflict and developing inclusive solutions for diverse participants. And that works best with an outside facilitator.

The five most common sources of conflict between people are values, data, relationships, interests and structure. The current Colorado River negotiations include all five. We believe a process designed and facilitated by negotiation experts could help break the logjam.

We recognize it can be very hard to reach an agreement when whatโ€™s at stake are countless lives, massive amounts of money, enormous quantities of hydroelectric power and not nearly enough water.

But compromise on Colorado River management is possible and, in fact, was achieved to curb Californiaโ€™s water use in the 2000s, to negotiate an interim agreement to coordinate operations at the Lake Mead and Lake Powell reservoirs in 2007, and to enact contingency plans to manage drought in 2019. But this time around, circumstances are different.

Previous negotiations

The negotiations leading up to those agreements were often facilitated by officials from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation who focused on reaching broad agreements on general principles and concepts before delving into details. Federal staff also actively guided key agreements and provided the science and computer models to make well-informed decisions. And the statesโ€™ negotiators knew the Department of Interior would act unilaterally to make damaging cuts to water supply if states couldnโ€™t come to their own agreement.

The negotiators for the states had long-standing relationships and built trust by frequently communicating outside formal meetings and seeking to listen to and understand other statesโ€™ perspectives, even if they didnโ€™t agree.

The states also agreed to use the bureauโ€™s computer model for analyzing scenarios of climate change and management decisions. That meant all the negotiators were looking at the same data when delving into possible options. And the political and social environment was less polarized than today.

The current situation

In this round of negotiations, federal leadership has been lagging. The Department of the Interior has not made clear what the consequences might be for the states if they fail to agree. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has been without a permanent commissioner since President Donald Trump retook office in January 2025.

And federal staff have only recently begun helping to facilitate the discussions.

The states are fractured into subgroups, according to whether they are in the riverโ€™s Upper Basin โ€“ Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico โ€“ or the Lower Basin, which includes Arizona, Nevada and California. Each basin group holds strong positions and has generally been unwilling to shift.

Each basin group is using a different set of assumptions for the bureauโ€™s computer model to explore options. And the discussion often gets stuck on details, which prevents progress toward broader agreements.

In addition, the political context has shifted significantly, with increased polarization and politicization of the issues, creating barriers to effective dialogue and deliberation. Today, compromise can seem unattainable.

But those relatively new challenges to Colorado River compromise are not an excuse for failure.

A group of people sit around a table in a formal meeting room.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, center between flags, meets with governors and representatives of the seven Colorado River basin states in January 2026. U.S. Department of the Interior via X

A way forward?

The current negotiations have all been done behind closed doors. From talking with people involved in the negotiations, we understand the negotiators have been left to set their own agendas and meeting plans and conduct their own communications and follow-up, with no formal facilitators.

Itโ€™s reasonable to expect the negotiators to be ready to represent their statesโ€™ interests, working through an incredibly complicated landscape of hydrology, climate and management scenario modeling, water law and administration, and politics. But we believe itโ€™s unreasonable โ€“ and unrealistic and unfair โ€“ to expect them to also be experts at designing and facilitating an effective process for sorting out their differences.

Federal officials are not necessarily the best people to run the process either. And if the agency that ultimately needs to approve any deal is the one leading the process, real or perceived biases about the states or key issues in the agreement could further complicate the discussions.

We believe that agreement between the seven states is still possible. It may be less effective to bring in a third-party facilitator at this stage in the negotiation process, though, because of the degraded trust, hardened positions and shortage of time.

One possible outcome is that the Bureau of Reclamation will select and enforce one of the five management alternatives it outlined in January 2026. But that could lead to decades of litigation going up to the Supreme Court. No one wins in this scenario.

A more hopeful possibility is that the bureau adopts short-term rules that would give the states another chance to negotiate a longer-term deal โ€“ ideally with an unbiased third-party facilitator for support.

A collaborative and consensus-based planning process in the Yakima River Basin in Washington state in the early 2010s is evidence that while nobody gets everything they want in a negotiated agreement, โ€œif they can (all) get something, thatโ€™s really the basis of the plan,โ€ as a Washington state official told The New York Times.

Karen Schlatter, Director, Colorado Water Center, Colorado State University and Sharon B. Megdal, Professor of Environmental Science and Director, Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

#ColoradoRiver Upper Basin states test methods to fill #LakePowell pool: States say automatically turning to agriculture isnโ€™t always reliable — Heather Sackett (AspenJournalism.org) #COriver #aridification

Lake Powell, on the Colorado River, is seen from the air in 2019. The Upper Basin states are planning how to potentially fill a dedicated pool in the nationโ€™s second largest reservoir. CREDIT: ECOFLIGHT

Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

March 19, 2026

With a Lake Powell conservation pool nearly guaranteed for the future of Colorado River management, the four Upper Basin states are exploring and refining the ways they could fill it.

Conservation by those states (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) could be one of the keys to reaching a deal among the seven states that share the Colorado River and an important part of the framework for managing the drought-stricken river after this year. The water saved by the Upper Basin states could be stored in Lake Powell as a means of maintaining higher water levels and as an insurance policy against drastic cuts.

This type of pool isnโ€™t yet being used in Lake Powell; it would have to be established by an agreement among the seven states. An agreement in the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan allowed for a 500,000 acre-foot Upper Basin storage pool in Lake Powell, but so far, the states have not utilized this and the agreement expires this year.

The Upper Basin and Lower Basin (California, Arizona and Nevada) have been at an impasse for more than two years about how the nationโ€™s two largest reservoirs โ€” Lake Powell and Lake Mead โ€” will be managed and shortages shared in the future. The situation has never been more dire: The current guidelines for river management expire at the end of the year, while record-low snowpack is expected to push reservoir levels below critical thresholds. The seven states have blown past two deadlines to come up with a plan, and the federal government is gearing up for emergency actions to manage reservoirs.

The crux of the disagreement between the two basins has been over who should take shortages in drought years. The Lower Basin hasย committed to 1.5 million acre-feetย of reductions annually and wants cuts beyond that to beย shared by the Upper Basin. The Upper Basin says its water users already take cuts in some years because streams run dry by midsummer and any contributions they make must be voluntary.

TThe main boat ramp at Wahweap Marina was unusable due to low water levels in Lake Powell in December 2021. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is projecting that the reservoir will fall below critical thresholds later this year.ย CREDIT:ย HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Contribution not conservation

Some Upper Basin officials have made a slight shift in the way they now talk about a pool in Lake Powell. No longer referred to as a conservation pool, it is called a โ€œcontributionโ€ pool, reflecting the different methods โ€” not only conservation of agricultural water โ€” of contributing water to a Lake Powell pool.

Traditionally, the Colorado River basin states have turned to programs that pay irrigators to voluntarily leave fields dry for a season or two as the primary way to cut water use. With agriculture representing the majority of water use in the Upper Basin, itโ€™s often the low-hanging fruit when it comes to water savings. 

But at least two Upper Basin states are turning to other methods to contribute water to a Lake Powell pool. 

For example, New Mexico can contribute water from Navajo Reservoir that it leases from a tribe. In Colorado, the method is less straightforward, but officials say the state is prioritizing and expanding existing programs and projects that save water. 

โ€œWhen you talk about things like turf removal, water-loss prevention, watershed restoration, forest-health efforts that are happening on the ground, those are benefits not only to Colorado but to the entire system,โ€ said Becky Mitchell, Coloradoโ€™s lead negotiator in talks among the seven states that share the Colorado River. โ€œSo weโ€™re trying to figure out: How do we acknowledge all of that work?โ€

Raymond Langstaff, a rancher and president of the Bookcliff Conservation District, irrigates a parcel north of Rifle. The state of Colorado explored the feasibility of a demand management program that would pay irrigators to cut back, but did not implement one. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Utah touts pragmatic approach

Over its run in 2023 and 2024, the federally funded System Conservation Pilot Programdoled out $45 million to Upper Basin irrigators to cut their use by about 100,000 acre-feet. Utah water users received about $15 million of that in exchange for temporarily forgoing about 37,000 acre-feet of Colorado River water. The state put lessons learned with SCPP to use and is now in the second year of its own demand management pilot program, funded by $5 million from the state legislature and run by the Colorado River Authority of Utah. 

The pilot program lets water users temporarily participate in a conservation program, and pays them $390 an acre-foot of water to do it. In 2025, Utah sent about 8,000 acre-feet downstream to Lake Powell under this pilot program, according to Marc Stilson, deputy director and principal engineer of the authority. There are a couple industrial water users and one municipal water user among the participants, but the majority are agricultural, he said.

โ€œThe pilot program is trying to iron out all these issues so that if we end up with some type of post-2026 commitment to do these types of voluntary conservation programs, weโ€™re ready to do it,โ€ Stilson said. โ€œThere is a very pragmatic approach in Utah looking at the big picture, and I think generally there is a sense that we have to adapt to changing conditions.โ€

Whether the program will continue after this year is unclear and could depend on whether the states reach a deal.

โ€œWe were anticipating that weโ€™d have an agreement and that these types of programs would be part of that agreement,โ€ Stilson said. โ€œI think we just have to take a wait-and-see approach.โ€

Wyoming is also looking to traditional programs: State lawmakers are establishing a voluntary water conservation program. Wyoming state engineer and lead negotiator Brandon Gebhart did not respond to phone calls, emails or a list of questions from Aspen Journalism.

Boater on the San Juan River in May 2023. New Mexico officials say they can contribute water to a pool in Lake Powell through releasing water they lease in Navajo Reservoir. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

New Mexico seeks โ€˜more diverseโ€™ ways to contribute water

The state of New Mexico plans to contribute to a Powell pool mostly through 20,000 acre-feet of Navajo Reservoir water, which it leases from the Jicarilla Apache Nation and can be released down the San Juan River. Along the way to Lake Powell, it boosts flows for endangered fish. Officials say because they can control when they release the water, it can be tracked with certainty to the reservoir. 

โ€œWe all need to focus on more diverse ways of contributions, not just the classic conserved consumptive use,โ€ said Ali Effati, Colorado River basin bureau chief for the New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission. 

Water managers say that automatically turning to agricultural water isnโ€™t always reliable because as climate change continues to rob rivers of flows, even if senior water users want to participate in these types of conservation programs, they may not have any water to spare in dry years.

โ€œThat doesnโ€™t mean that we have shied away from those sorts of activities, but to the extent that we can do our part without having to ask our agricultural community to cut water where they already take significant cuts almost annually, thatโ€™s just a preferable perspective,โ€ said Estevan Lopez, lead negotiator for New Mexico.

Lopez said the likelihood of seeing a future Upper Basin contribution pool in Lake Powell is nearly 100% and that New Mexico will be ready, willing and able to contribute its share of water when the time comes.

โ€œWe have our percentage easily covered, plus a significant amount more,โ€ he said.โ€œWe have our percentage easily covered, plus a significant amount more,โ€ he said.

TThese hay bales stand ready to be collected on a ranch outside of Carbondale in July 2024. ย Upper Basin states have traditionally looked to agricultural to conserve water, but some are now turning to other ways to contribute water.ย CREDIT:ย HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Colorado points to programs already in place

Colorado water users participated in both years of SCPP, but the state has been reluctant to take the leap into setting up its own program, despite being an early leader of the conservation conversation among the Upper Basin states.

In 2019, Colorado convened nine workgroups to explore the feasibility of a demand management program. The process included Colorado River water users from across the state and in multiple water-use sectors, who looked at how to set up a temporary, voluntary, compensated state program. But in 2022, the state water board shelved the studies without implementing a program, in favor of focusing on drought-resiliency initiatives. 

Mitchell said the demand management feasibility investigation was an incredibly valuable exercise, but that there are still a number of open questions. Inaction on a demand management program doesnโ€™t mean inaction on conservation overall, she said.

โ€œThe CWCB board voted to pause that investigation until there was clarity about whether any such program would be achievable, worthwhile and advisable and until thereโ€™s evidence that a demand management-esque program would benefit Colorado,โ€ Mitchell said.

In 2023, Colorado lawmakers created a task force to again examine how the state could implement demand reduction and conservation programs. Water managers punted the issue again, failing to make recommendations to lawmakers on this topic, with some members saying conservation programs were โ€œpremature.โ€ 

The state still does not seem to have the policies in place to implement a large-scale, traditional conservation program in the near future. Mitchell said Coloradoโ€™s plan to contribute water to a Lake Powell pool is through the programs and projects already in place, many of which are funded through the stateโ€™s Water Plan grants.

At its March meeting, the CWCB approved more than $13 million for 38 projects across the state, according to a press release. They include things like urban turf replacement, creek and wetland restoration, outdoor water budgeting and wildfire ready action plans.

โ€œOur strategy is to continue on with the programs that are already in existence, continue to fund conservation efforts that benefit all Coloradans as well as the entire system, continue to live within the means of the river and adapt our uses to align with available supply,โ€ Mitchell said. โ€œBecause of all those programs already set up, we believe we have the majority of the structure in place.โ€

But Mitchell would not put a number on the amount of water that Colorado could contribute.

โ€œWe want to be a part of the solution when and how we are able to, but no, Iโ€™m not going to say we can do 100,000 acre-feet in a year like this,โ€ she said.

Colorado River watchers may soon get some clarity around exactly how โ€” and how much โ€” Upper Basin states plan to contribute to a Lake Powell pool. On March 24, the Upper Colorado River Commission plans to consider projects to include in a โ€œprovisional accountingโ€ memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, according to UCRC Director Chuck Cullom. 

Some Upper Basin projects that are not traditional agricultural conservation programs may be counted under the MOU, allowing the states to โ€œget creditโ€ for the water they save through unconventional means. Cullom said the UCRC and Bureau of Reclamation will also soon have an accounting report of water-saving activities undertaken in 2025. 

Mitchell said Colorado is still committed to a seven-state consensus agreement and wants to avoid litigation. But acknowledgement of what the Upper Basin is already doing to cut back on water use will be important.

โ€œThe MOU is one component where we would like to see some sort of real acknowledgement of what is occurring in terms of the way that we live within the means of the river and what our strict administration is doing,โ€ Mitchell said. โ€œAs long as we are not acknowledged in whatโ€™s happening on the ground, I think weโ€™re going to have struggles.โ€

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Romancing the River: The Era of Conquest Part 2 — George Sibley (SibleysRivers.com) #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification #ClimateChange

Click the link to read the article on the Sibley’s Rivers website (George Sibley):

March 18, 2026

The hard news about the Colorado River since my last post here is not good; we had a storm that dropped around two feet of snow above the 8,000-foot elevation โ€“ well, maybe the 9,000-foot elevation. But that was followed by a couple weeks of ridiculously warm weather for February and early March, with more 50-degree weather forecast into the near future, and overnight lows often in the 20s, rather than down around zero. Forecasts for the runoff this year range around a third of the โ€˜historic normal,โ€™ which is an increasingly meaningless number โ€“ and dangerous too, MAGA-thinking, keeping alive the hope that eventually the Colorado River will be great again if we just wait it out, or close our eyes and wish real hard, with real violence toward realistsโ€ฆ.

The Bureau bases its โ€˜averagesโ€™ on the recent 30-year average going by decades โ€“ so now the โ€˜long-term averageโ€™ is based on 1991-2020. Back as recently as 2019, it was based on the average from 1981-2010, which was more than a million acre-feet per year higher than the current 30-year average. God help us when weโ€™re figuring in the decade of the 2020s into a 2001-2030 average โ€“ the new average would probably make this years runoff look better than it looks by the 1991-2020 average, but thereโ€™s certainly an element of delusion in that.

The โ€˜soft newsโ€™ about the Colorado River recently has been a declaration of โ€˜personhoodโ€™ for the river by the Colorado River Indian Tribes (CRIT). This is a lovely gesture by people who have been struggling for โ€˜personhoodโ€™ themselves for 150 years in the riverโ€™s region, and still are not quite at the table in negotiating over the riverโ€™s future, even though they have โ€˜usedโ€™ the river, often in fairly โ€˜civilizedโ€™ ways, for many hundreds if not thousands of years more than the white masters of the river.

But it seemed naive (or maybe just cynical) for the โ€˜lamestream mediaโ€™ to ask if this declaration of personhood was going to โ€˜help save the river.โ€™ We probably need to face the fact that, until we get serious about slowing down the warming of the planet, we can do nothing by way of nomenclatter to โ€˜help save the riverโ€™ โ€“ and even then, the best we could do would be to maintain the river where it is now, or at least not a whole lot worse โ€“ which is whatโ€™s going to happen if every year we continue to put more new greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than we did the year before. I do not see how considering the river a โ€˜personโ€™ is going to change that much.

I think we should also consider that granting โ€˜personhoodโ€™ to another set of  living ecosystems might be kind of anthropocentric. I can barely contemplate what goes into โ€˜riverhood,โ€™ for example, but watching a stream one sees a system very much engaged in interaction with its whole neighborhood โ€“ giving water to the surrounding land when the landโ€™s water table is low, and taking on water the land canโ€™t hold when it is wet. โ€˜Riverhood,โ€™ I infer, has aspects of sharing, giving and receiving, that might have things to teach us about improving โ€˜personhood,โ€™ rather than operating on the assumption that all life on the planet would love to be reduced to โ€˜personhoodโ€™โ€ฆ. Just thinking out loud, sorry.

ten tribes
Graphic via Holly McClelland/High Country News.

Our real question today is whether we can โ€˜save the river systemโ€™ โ€“ the structure for storage and distribution we have laid over the river โ€“ a question with which we need to actually spend some constructive time. And that kind of leads into the second part of my second โ€˜eraโ€™ in updating Fred Dellenbaughโ€™s 1903 Romance of the Colorado River: the โ€˜Era of Conquest.โ€™ (First, remember, was the โ€˜Era of Exploration and Discovery.โ€™)

World War II, where I left the story last post, is a natural break in the Era of Conquering the Colorado River. Prior to World War II, we saw the Bureau do its greatest work: overseeing the construction of Hoover Dam, Imperial Dam and the All-American Canal under the Boulder Canyon Project, as well as Parker Dam to back up water for the 250-mile Colorado River Aqueduct to the West Coast cities. It is hard not to call it a masterpiece of regional urban-industrial development. In our six or eight thousand-year history of humans trying to create โ€˜civilizationsโ€™ to constructively deal with exploding populations, the Boulder Canyon Act stands tall as a public work, fitting for a state struggling to become a mass-society democracy (possible?) rather than putting people to work on massive tombs for the self-proclaimed โ€˜God of the Sunโ€™ or maybe โ€˜The Son of God.โ€™

Advocates for private-sector industry will be quick to say it could not have been done without the private contractors, โ€˜the Six Companiesโ€™ and most notably Henry J. Kaiser. Critics of private-sector industry will be as quick to say that the private sector has not produced very many large-scale industrial organizers like Henry J โ€“ who demonstrated than you can do big work and also take good care of the people doing it. He did not rest on his laurels but capitalized on that regional system with his Fontana steel and aluminum plants and Liberty Shipyards up the West Coast.

Green Mountain Reservoir, on the Blue River between Kremmling and and Silverthorne, was built for Western Slope interests. Photo/Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District via The Mountain Town News.

The war effort cut off most domestic development โ€“ but the Bureau of Reclamation did complete two dams on the Colorado River during the war years. One was the Green Mountain Dam and Powerplant on the Blue River high in the riverโ€™s headwaters, part of the equally massive Colorado-Big Thompson Project. More about this in the next post.

The other was a modest diversion dam below Parker Dam on the Lower Colorado: Headgate Rock Dam โ€“ for the Colorado River Indian Tribes! With all the tribes in the Colorado Basin feeling โ€“ righteously โ€“ left out of river development, one might think the Bureau would make a bit of a big deal about the fact that their first Colorado River project completed after the Boulder Canyon Project was a diversion dam for irrigating Indian agriculture. Yet I can find none of the usual historical and statistic evidence in the Bureau websites about the Headgate Rock Dam, like they have for all of the other Colorado River projects, each getting its own website. Possibly this is because the operation of the dam was turned over to the Bureau of Indian Affairs Office after construction was finished.

It is, however, an interesting story. The tribes along the river were farming like Nile Valley Egyptians, planting in the new layer of silt laid down annually by the snowmelt floods, crops that needed little further irrigation. That worked until the federal Indian agents started moving Hopi and Navajo bands onto their reservation in the 1860s โ€“ the reservations truly were โ€˜concentration camps,โ€™ forcing the move to โ€˜civilizedโ€™ agriculture. This had moved the Indian agents to acquire some pumps round the turn of the century, to water land beyond the riparian floodplain. But when the gates on Hoover Dam were closed in the mid-1930s, that ended the annual snowmelt floods, also ending the traditional agricultural economy.

So the Bureau plotted out a gravity-flow diversion dam and canal in 1938, and began construction. But construction did not really accelerate until 1941, when in one of Americaโ€™s most shamefully hysteric events 17,000 Japanese-Americans were โ€˜relocatedโ€™ to the Colorado River Indian Tribes (CRIT) reservation โ€“ undeniably a concentration camp at that point, if only for the concentration of people. But that added not just a lot of hungry mouths, but a proven workforce that joined the First People in working on the Headgate Rock Diversion Dam and the canal works to carry the water.

It would be both insensitive and naive to speak of a โ€˜happy ending,โ€™ but as the interred Japanese did in many of the desert places they were sent to, their concentration camp became a very livable village system; some stayed on after the war, and today there is a memorial monument and periodic celebration commemorating the positive relationship that developed between two โ€˜unwanted peoplesโ€™ โ€“ the uprooted Japanese and the Indians who forcibly shared their homeland. A story that, for some reason, the Bureau is not interested in tellingโ€ฆ.

Meanwhile, however, the Bureau was not lying dormant. Immediately after the warโ€™s end, the Bureau released what amounted to a smorgasbord of opportunities, under the title The Colorado River: A Natural Menace Becomes a National Resource. This proposed 134 possible projects for the development of the entire river basin for human uses โ€“ cautioning that there was not enough water in the river to build them all, thereby intruding the good old all-American element of interstate competition. Fifty-eight of those proposed projects were for the Lower Basin states, but the other 88 were for the Upper Basin states. If the pre-war Colorado River development had all been about the Compactโ€™s Lower Basin states, the post-war development would begin with controlling the โ€˜natural menaceโ€™ in the Upper Basin states and putting the water to work.

The 1946 Bureau report divided the Upper Basin into three different divisions, based on the Riverโ€™s three main tributaries above the canyons: there were 33 projects for the Green River Division out of Wyoming and Colorado but flowing mostly (but not entirely) through eastern Utah; 35 projects for the โ€˜Grand Divisionโ€™ (the Upper Colorado-Gunnison Rivers, originating in Colorado but flowing into Utah (using the older name for the Upper Colorado); and 20 projects for the San Juan Division, most of whose tributary waters flowed out of Coloradoโ€™s San Juan Mountains but the river itself flowed mostly through northern New Mexico and southern Utah.

The Little Snake River is about to join the Yampa River on Oct. 8, 2020. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

An obvious challenge lay in the absence of any coordination between those natural divisions of the Upper Basin and the geographically-irrelevant state boundaries. Every major tributary except for the Gunnison River crossed at least one state boundary. The Little Snake River in the Yampa River Basin is the extreme example, crossing the Colorado-Wyoming border seven times.

Grand River Ditch in Rocky Mountain National Park. Photo credit: Greg Hobbs

Nonetheless, the first task for the Upper Basin, before the Bureau could go to work, was to divide the use of the waters among the states in an Upper Colorado River Basin Compact. This task was made the more difficult because the state boundaries bundled the relatively water-rich Upper Colorado River Basin with other drier river basins โ€“ the Platte, Arkansas and Rio Grande rivers in Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico; and the Great Basin in Utah. And water law โ€“ plus fervent belief in big-project technology โ€“ accommodated the notion of moving water from one river basin to another. The Grand Ditch from high on Coloradoโ€™s West Slope to the Poudre River on the East Slope was already being dug by the turn of the century. Unlike water for either agricultural or municipal uses within a basin, nothing flows back into the basin of origin from a transmountain diversion โ€“ a total depletion.

The task of dividing the use of the Upper Basin waters was also complicated by vague writing in the Colorado River Compact โ€“ Article III(d), stating that โ€˜the States of the Upper Division will noteย (sic)ย cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre feet for any period of ten consecutive years.โ€™ Was this aย cautionย to the Upper Basin states to make sure their uses did not start cutting into the Lower Basinโ€™s shares? Or was it aย mandateย to those states to deliver that much water even if it meant cutting their own uses โ€“ essentially turning the Compact into a โ€˜senior water rightโ€™ to the Lower Basin?

This was not really foreseen as an issue in 1922, with a river that early 20th-century optimism assumed would run at around 18 million acre-feet (maf) forever. But after the drought of the 1930s and the middling flows of early 40s, plus the mid-war treaty with Mexico to deliver 1.5 maf across that border every year, it was evident to the Upper Basin state negotiators, who gathered in 1946 to work on an Upper Basin Compact, that the river might not always produce the 7.5 maf the Compact promised to them.ย Theirย preferred interpretation of the Compactโ€™s Article III(d) would obviously be the โ€˜cautionaryโ€™ interpretation โ€“ donโ€™t be the cause of the river flow declining. But they also knew that California and Arizona would interpret it as a โ€˜mandateโ€™ โ€“ and since Congress would have to ratify their Compact, they chose to not โ€˜waken the bear,โ€™ as Californiaโ€™s current governor would put it.

So rather than dividing the use of the Upper Riverโ€™s hoped-for allotment of 7.5 maf in four set figures, like the Lower Basin has, they chose to divide it into percentages: 51.75% for Colorado (which provides around 70% of the riverโ€™s water), 23% for Utah, 13% for Wyoming, and 11.25% for New Mexico. They also chose to calculate their usage by their depletions of a streamโ€™s flow rather than adding up consumptive uses, as the Lower Basin does. I will not pretend to know exactly how this works โ€“ except to note that a measure of depletions by users also includes evaporation and transpiration, while the Lower Basinโ€™s measures allows such considerations to get lost in their calculations of usage. (The Bureau calculates Lower Basin evaporation and transpiration on a separate spreadsheet from recorded uses.)

Meanwhile, however -โ€ฆ  Donโ€™t you just love it when a writer intrudes โ€˜Meanwhile, howeverโ€™ into an already complicated mess?  This is my secondmeanwhile in this post, so it is probably time to give you a break, with only a teaser about the next step in this growing ganglia of complexity.

While the still somewhat beloved Bureau of Reclamation, creator of Hoover Dam and the New West, was just cranking up the mill for the development of the rest of the Colorado River Basin waters, the Upper Basin states had already been working out their separate peace over the transmountain diversion issue between the wet Colorado River basins of origin with low populations, and drier basins of destination with large populations across the mountains. This is a story that goes back to the 1930s, with the โ€˜New Dealโ€™ federal government putting out large amounts of funding for public projects in all the states โ€“ but with the caveat that for any state to tap into that funding, theย wholeย state had to want the projectโ€ฆ. Stay tuned for the next thrilling episode in The Westโ€™s Romance with Conquest.

Colorado transmountain diversions via the State Engineer’s office

The Alfalfa Fallacy: There are no “obvious” solutions to the #ColoradoRiver crisis — Jonathan P. Thompson #COriver #aridification

Idle sprinkler system in southwestern Colorado. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

March 10, 2026

๐Ÿฅต Aridification Watch ๐Ÿซ

Oh dear. Youโ€™d best get your skiing in now, because it looks like the spring melt will hit a lot earlier than usual. A big heat wave is on its way to the West, with the most unseasonably warm temperatures occurring in the Southwest and Four Corners regions, further dimming hopes for a spring snowpack-bolstering miracle. This could mean that mountain snowpack in the Colorado River Basin has already peaked, which would be dire for streamflows. 

My apologies for bringing you more doom and gloom climate news. At least itโ€™s cold in Alaska, though.

And thatโ€™s topping off the warmest winter on record in the Upper Colorado River Basin.


โ˜˜๏ธ Annals of Alfalfa ๐Ÿ€

As the Colorado River shrinks, the โ€œsimpleโ€ and โ€œobviousโ€ solutions to the crisis seem to multiply.

You know, itโ€™s a lot of: โ€œWhatchya gotta do is โ€ฆ. โ€œ

  • โ€œโ€ฆย stop watering them golf courses.โ€
  • โ€œโ€ฆย stop population growth.โ€
  • โ€œโ€ฆย keep people from moving to deserts.โ€
  • โ€œโ€ฆ shut down dem data centers!โ€

And then, the most common one: โ€œ โ€ฆ stop raising cattle and hay in the desert.โ€

Kenny Torrella, who writes for Vox, brought up that last one on the social media platform Blue Sky recently:

While this fix holds more water (so to speak) than the preceding ones, it is not actually a solution โ€” at least not a workable one.

There is only one obvious remedy for the Colorado River crisis, and that is for its collective users to consume less of the riverโ€™s water. Since irrigating alfalfa takes up a larger share of the riverโ€™s water than any other single use, it seems to follow that growing less of the crop would leave more water in the river. But this does not account for the way water law works.

Letโ€™s imagine that California could designate alfalfa as an illicit crop and ban cultivation of it and other livestock forage crops. That would force a bunch of big farmers in the Imperial Valley โ€” home of the largest single water user on the entire river โ€” to tear up about 200,000 acres of water-guzzling alfalfa.

Problem solved? Not quite.

The Salton Sea (pictured above ) straddles the Imperial and Coachella valleys. (Source: Water Education Foundation)

The Imperial Irrigation District has senior rights to use a buttload of Colorado River water for โ€œbeneficial use,โ€ which in this case means agriculture. Specific farmers may decide that without alfalfa, theyโ€™ll simply throw in the towel and stop irrigating altogether. But thereโ€™s no way the irrigation district as a whole is going to stop diverting that water without some sort of compensation, because while farmers pay the irrigation district a negligible amount for water, the irrigation district gets it virtually for free. That means the district is incentivized to continue using all of the water to which it has rights, and rather than leaving it in the river, they would most likely sell it to another farmer growing another crop. The result: No net reduction in water consumption.

Torrellaโ€™s claim that alfalfaโ€™s water use gets โ€œalmost no air timeโ€ is a little off. Iโ€™ve written about it at least a zillion times at the Land Desk and at High Country News, but many a mainstream news outlet has done the same. Even the Paris Review had a pieceon it. The reason โ€œgrowing less alfalfaโ€ doesnโ€™t show up in talks about negotiations over the Colorado River, or as an alternative in the fedsโ€™ proposed operating plan, is not because of โ€œagricultural exceptionalism,โ€ but because these arenโ€™t crop-level negotiations.


Data Dump: The alfalfa question — Jonathan P. Thompson


The two Colorado River basins and the feds are currently looking at the macro level, and trying to hash out which basin will take what level of cuts, how those cuts will be determined, and what if anything will be done to fend off dead pool at Glen Canyon Dam. Only when all of that is settled can the individual states in each basin duke it out over respective consumption cuts, followed by the biggest users within each state. Finally, those users can make decisions about how to use their now smaller share of water, and really just about anything goes so long as it fits the definition of โ€œbeneficial use.โ€ 

Maybe theyโ€™ll continue to grow alfalfa using less water via deficit irrigation, maybe theyโ€™ll opt for a higher-value, less water-intensive crop like broccoli, maybe theyโ€™ll use it to grow cacti, but what counts is that theyโ€™ll be taking less water out of the Colorado River, regardless.

Itโ€™s not that the alfalfaphobes are wrong; it probably is a good idea to grow less alfalfa and fewer cows in the desert. For that matter, we should fallow golf courses, restrict urban growth, and take other steps to live within our means. But whatโ€™s needed now is an agreement on drastic and immediate cuts in water consumption. What that means for alfalfa or golf courses or Arizona suburbs will be dealt with later. 

Now for a little data dump re alfalfa and other irrigated crops in Imperial County, California1:

  • $238,752,000: Gross value of alfalfa hay harvested in Imperial County, California, in 2024.
  • 183,252: Harvested acres of alfalfa hay in 2024.
  • $1,300/acre: Per-acre value of alfalfa hay harvested in 2024.ย 
  • 6 acre-feet: Approximate amount of water required to irrigate one acre of alfalfa in the Imperial Valley for a year.
  • $20/acre-foot: Amount Imperial Valley farmers pay for water.
  • $134,822,000: Gross value of broccoli harvested in Imperial County in 2024.
  • $12,136/acre: Per-acre value of broccoli harvested in 2024.
  • 3 acre-feet: Approximate amount of water required to irrigate one acre of broccoli in the Imperial Valley.
  • $259,861,000: Gross value of head and leaf lettuce harvested in 2024.
  • $9,012/acre:ย Per-acre value of head and leaf lettuce harvested in 2024.ย 
  • 2-3 acre-feet:ย Approximate amount of water required to irrigate one acre of lettuce in the Imperial Valley.

๐ŸŸ Colorado River Chronicles ๐Ÿ’ง

Todayโ€™s vocabulary term is: Present Perfected Rights, a term you may be hearing a lot more of in coming months. 

Article VIII of the Colorado River Compact states:

Later, the Boulder Canyon Project Act of 1928 decreed that the โ€œdam and reservoirโ€ of the title (which would become Hoover Dam and Lake Mead) shall be used for the โ€œsatisfaction of present perfected rights โ€ฆ .โ€

Thatโ€™s fine and good, but what are present perfected rights, or PPRs? The Compact never says what that term means. In fact, it wasnโ€™t clearly defined until the Supreme Court laid it out in its 1964 Arizona v. California decision, a key document in the Law of the River:

Clear as mud, right?

Generally speaking, PPRs are the most senior rights on the Colorado River, they predate the Colorado River Compact, and are the last rights subject to curtailment in times of shortage. They are the โ€œfirstโ€ in the โ€œfirst in time, first in rightโ€ summation of the prior appropriation doctrine, which is the foundation of Western water law.

Arizona v. California goes on to say that โ€œin any year where there is fewer than 7.5 million acre-feet available for use in California, Nevada, and Arizona, the Secretary of the Interior must first supply water to the PPRs in order of priority, regardless of state lines.โ€ Similarly, the Upper Basinโ€™s PPRs will be the last to be cut if curtailments are necessary to meet its non-depletion/minimum-delivery obligation to the Lower Basin. 

The Supreme Court required the Lower Basin to submit a list of its PPRs, and here they are from the document itself as submitted in 1967. Some of these, especially the tribal rights, were updated and added to later on. 

The first set is for tribal nations in the Lower Basin only:

These are the top six non-tribal PPRs in the Lower Basin by order of size of diversion. There are many more smaller PPRs that are not listed here:


๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ Messing with Maps ๐Ÿงญ

Iโ€™m not sure if Iโ€™ve featured this one before, but if so, itโ€™s worth re-upping due to its heightened relevance this year. Itโ€™s the Open ET mapping tool, with ET standing for evapotranspiration. It uses satellite imagery to calculate evapotranspiration from individual fields, which is an indicator of how much irrigation is being used and what crop is being grown. Hovering over a field will bring up a chart showing ET for each month, the acreage, and the crop type. 

The screenshot below is of the Montezuma Valley between Dolores and Cortez. The fields, a vast majority of which are planted with alfalfa or other hay crops, are irrigated from the Dolores River and McPhee Reservoir. Try it out here: https://etdata.org/


1 Source: Imperial County Agricultural Commissioner

#Arizona tribal leaders testify in support of Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement — KJZZ #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

The Colorado River flows beneath Navajo Bridge in Arizona on Dec. 27, 2019. Three tribes in Arizona are pushing for a settlement that would solidify their access to the River’s water and provide billions of dollars for water infrastructure. Photo credit: Mitch Tobin/The Water Desk

Click the link to read the article on the KJZZ website (Alex Hager). Here’s an excerpt:

March 11, 2026

Coverage of tribal natural resources is supported in part byย Catena Foundation

Tribal leaders and U.S. senators spoke out in support of a measure that would solidify access to water for three tribes with land in Arizona during a Wednesday [March 11, 2026] hearing at the Senate Indian Affairs Committee.ย  The Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement, or NAIWRSA, would settle claims to water by the Navajo, Hopi and San Juan Southern Paiute tribes, and provide $5 billion to build new water delivery systems and help the tribes access their water. The settlement would need to be authorized by congress to go into effect. At Wednesdayโ€™s Senate committee hearing, impassioned pleas to bring water to tribal communities ran up against federal concerns about the cost of a settlement, and talks of hesitation from some states that use the Colorado River.

โ€œThis settlement is more than a legal agreement,โ€ said Lamar Keevama, chairman of the Hopi Tribe. โ€œIt is a path forward. It allows the Hopi tribe to remain and protect our homeland, supports economic development and ensures that our communities have the basic resources necessary to thrive.โ€

An official with the Interior Department said he was supportive of the settlementโ€™s aims, but was concerned with the cost.

โ€œ$5 billion is a lot of money,โ€ said Scott Cameron, Interiorโ€™s principal deputy assistant secretary for water and science. โ€œWe look forward to working with the committee and with the three tribes and the other interested parties, of which there are quite a few, to see if we can’t creatively come up with some ideas to still satisfy the purposes of the bill at somewhat less cost.โ€

Lamar Keevama, chairman of the Hopi Tribe, testifies in front of a U.S. Senate Committee on March 11, 2026. โ€œThis settlement is more than a legal agreement,โ€ he said. โ€œIt is a path forward.” Photo credit: U.S. Senate Committee On Indian Affairs

NAIWRSA has partially been hung up by a unique geographical challenge and longstanding tensions between states that share the Colorado River. The river, which is at the heart of settlement talks, is divided into two regions โ€” the Upper Basin and the Lower Basin. Its water is managed by the seven states that use it, and they have been deeply split about new policies to share water. They generally fall into two camps โ€” the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico, and the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada. The Navajo Nation straddles both basins, with land in Arizona, New Mexico and Utah. Some of its land falls within a portion of Arizona that is technically part of the Upper Basin. Some Upper Basin states worry that the settlement would allow the Navajo Nation to take water from the Upper Basin and lease it for use in the Lower Basin, creating a precedent that could open the door to more transfers out of the Upper Basin. Buu Nygren, president of the Navajo Nation, pushed back on that suggestion.

โ€œIt is hard to imagine that any Upper Basin state would object to my people being able to use water that they have used for decades simply because of the fear of a potential precedent,โ€ he said.

From the 2018 Tribal Water Study, this graphic shows the location of the 29 federally-recognized tribes in the Colorado River Basin. Map credit: USBR

#Utah Senator Mike Lee and Representative Celeste Maloy look to Congressional Review Act to crush Grand Staircase Escalante National Monument, plan: Plus: Another #ColoradoRiver wonkfest; more public lands and #aridification news — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org) #COriver

Glen Canyon Dam, January 2022. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

March 6, 2026

๐ŸŒต Public Lands ๐ŸŒฒ

Sen. Mike Lee and Rep. Celeste Maloy, both MAGA Republicans from Utah, have formally introduced legislation to use the Congressional Review Act to revoke the Biden-era management plan for Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. If successful, the move would also bar the feds from developing a new management plan that resembles the current one.

The current management plan is not draconian by any means. It was fashioned over years, with oodles of input and compromise, and is far less restrictive than the preservation-oriented alternatives It allowed for motorized vehicle use on designated routes and added almost no new restrictions for livestock grazing. Revoking it is not the same as rescinding the national monument or shrinking its boundaries, and will not open up any of the monument to new mining claims or oil and gas leases.

So itโ€™s not clear what Lee and Maloy hope to achieve, except to strike a blow to a national monument that they donโ€™t like and to throw oversight of 1.9 million acres of public land into disarray. Or maybe theyโ€™re just trying to build up their anti-public-land credentials to head off challenges from even more extreme candidates such as, say, Phil Lyman, who just challenged Maloy for her 3rd District congressional seat.

You still have time to let your representatives in Congress know how you feel.


Ugggg.

While well-intentioned greens are parsing BLM director nominee Steve Pearceโ€™s words for indications he might be inclined to sell off public land, the Trump administration is orchestrating a massive de facto transfer of public lands to oil and gas companies.

Iโ€™m talking about oil and gas leasing. And no, itโ€™s not an actual transfer of public land; the lessee does not take title to the land, nor can they block public access, but they do get the rights to drill that land and preclude other uses on it. And, once it is drilled, the land is scraped of all vegetation, covered with heavy equipment, poked with a massive drill, hydraulically fractured, and becomes an industrial-scale, methane-, hydrogen sulfide-, and VOC-oozing hydrocarbon factory for many decades to come.

On the auction block this June is a good chunk of slickrock-studded landscape northwest of Moab, between Hwy. 191 and the Green River, along with some parcels in the Lisbon Valley. All in all, the BLM proposes selling off 39 parcels covering some 71,600 acres. You have until March 30 to give your two cents. https://eplanning.blm.gov/Project-Home/?id=6fad61fa-a7f2-f011-8407-001dd80bcf93

***

Of course, sometimes the BLM holds an oil and gas auction and no one comes. That was the case with the Big Beautiful Cook Inlet Oil and Gas Lease Sale (yes, that is the official name) held March 4 in Alaska, in which more than 1 million acres of offshore leases were put on the block. There were zero bids. Zilch. Nada. Someday, maybe every oil and gas lease sale will be like that.

***

A federal judge has halted construction of the Northern Corridor Highway through the Red Cliffs National Conservation Area near St. George, Utah, while an advocatesโ€™ lawsuit proceeds.

The BLM approved the contested project earlier this year. The Utah Department of Transportation, apparently wanting to get started before a legal challenge could take hold, began erecting fencing along the project, even though their development plan hadnโ€™t been approved. This activity would have disturbed desert tortoise habitat.

The court did not approve, blocking further work until the lawsuit is resolved.

***

In other Utah road news, Garfield County began chip-sealing the first ten miles of the Hole-in-the-Rock Road in Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument, drawing protest and a lawsuit from environmental groups.

The county has been aching to pave the gravel road, which often becomes riddled with potholes and washboards, for years, but failed to gain BLM approval. Environmental groups have resisted, saying that improving the road could lead to more paving or widening of primitive byways in the area, and would increase the number of people and their impacts on the fragile landscape.

The county has also wielded RS-2477 โ€” an 1866 statute โ€” in an attempt to wrest control over the byway, which leads to the famed Colorado River crossing of the 1879 Latter Day Saint expedition to Bluff. Last July, a federal court granted Garfield County quiet title to the section of the road within the county.

Garfield County interpreted that as a green light to chip seal the road.

That triggered a lawsuit from the Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance, pointing out that because the road crosses BLM land, the county must still get the agencyโ€™s go-ahead for major improvements. It didnโ€™t, but the BLM has done nothing to stop the action, which SUWA says violates federal environmental laws.


๐Ÿฅต Aridification Watch ๐Ÿซ

I was accused recently of being all โ€œdoom and gloomโ€ when it comes to this yearโ€™s snow levels, so I set out to find some good news to report. It didnโ€™t go so well, but I did uncover a few tiny nuggets, including:

  1. After the February storms, the Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies reported: โ€œThis is rare, but currently we do not have any dust on the snowpack.โ€ Thatโ€™s good news because dust on the snow decreases albedo (reflectivity), leading to faster snowmelt. We need what little we have to stick around as long as possible. Buzzkill: The really big dust events tend to come in the springtime.
  2. I tend to rely on a handful of high-elevation SNOTEL sites as indicators of how the mountain snowpack is doing. One of them is in Columbus Basin in the La Plata Mountains. Like everywhere else, the snow water equivalent there is way below normal. However, itโ€™s still above 2002 levels for early March, so thatโ€™s kind of heartening. I guess?
  3. Hope lies in 1990: That year, snowpack levels in the Animas River watershed were lower on March 6 than they are today. But beginning in mid-March, storms pummeled the region, resulting in a May 3, 1990, snowpack peak that was 94% of normal and bringing runoff up to decent levels. We could see a repeat of that March-April-May miracle!
  4. And โ€ฆ oh. Iโ€™ve just been informed that there is no more good news.
As grim as this may be, it also offers a glimmer of hope: The snowpack could still recover like it did in 1990. Source: NRCS.

Now back to our regularly scheduled doom and gloom, bullet style.

  • The late February-early March heat wave across most of the West shattered thousands of daily high temperature records and dozens of monthly ones, topping off the Westโ€™s warmest winter on record. Monthly records (121 tied or broken nationwide during the last week of Feb.) include:
    • Dinosaur National Monument in Utah hit 68ยฐ F on 2/26;
    • Imperial County, Californiaโ€™s airport reached 97ยฐ on 2/28;
    • Albuquerque airport, 77ยฐ on 2/25;
    • Hovenweep National Monument in Utah, 70ยฐ on 2/28;
    • Havasu, Arizona, and Malibu Hills, California, were both 93ยฐ on 2/27;
  • Sampling of daily records (845 broken or tied during the last week of Feb) include:
    • Mancos, Colorado, hit 50ยฐ F on 2/28; the aforementioned Columbus Basin (elev. 10,784 feet) reached 48ยฐ and Mineral Creek, Colorado, hit 51ยฐ that same day;
    • McClure Pass, Colorado, reached 49ยฐ on 2/28;
    • Needles, California, and Phoenix both hit 92ยฐ on 2/28;
    • South Lake Tahoe airport, 60ยฐ on 2/28.

Those kinds of temperatures melt the snow, even on north faces, causing this yearโ€™s snow water equivalent graph lines to uncharacteristically dip during a time of year when they normally would be shooting upward. They also heighten risk of wildfires in the low country. On the last day of February,ย a blaze broke outย in Chautauqua Park in Boulder, forcing some evacuations before it was contained. Another one was sparked west of Boulder on March 4.

The North Fork of the Gunnison, which feeds the ditches in and around Paonia and Hotchkiss and the orchards, vineyards, and farms there, is in trouble. This yearโ€™s snowpack so far is in the same boat as it was on this date in 2002 and 2018, two very dry years when irrigation ditches were shut off early in the growing season.

Aside from the entire Upper Colorado River watershed, Iโ€™m also especially concerned about the North Fork of the Gunnison. Snowpack levels are at a record low for this date, or about the same as they were in 2018, and Paonia Reservoir is currently utilizing just 22% of its storage capacity (note the record high temp on McClure Pass above, at the headwaters of Muddy Creek, which feeds the reservoir). This does not bode well for the many small farmers who rely on the river for irrigation. In 2018, downstream senior rights holders made a call on the river in June, forcing junior irrigators in the North Fork to lose water perilously early in the season.

This bad situation could be exacerbated if the feds were to decide to release water from Paonia Reservoir in an attempt to buoy Lake Powell water levels. While this is hypothetical, it is not beyond the realm of possibility by any means.

And, saving for some sort of April-May miracle, the Colorado River runoff will be extraordinarily scant this spring and summer, almost certainly pushing Lake Powell to critically low levels.

***

That demands a plan, and the Bureau of Reclamation came up with several alternatives last month. Most of the major players have commented on the alternatives, and itโ€™s safe to say that almost no one is satisfied with any of them โ€” albeit for different reasons.

One of the more universal critiques is that none of the alternatives adequately address dry and critically dry scenarios on the river, like the one that is likely to occur this summer. The draft environmental impact statement itself states, โ€œIn critically dry periods, all alternatives have unacceptable performance.โ€ That leaves many wondering what, exactly, the Bureau of Reclamation plans to do to keep the system from collapsing over the next nine months.

There is a lot here, and it gets pretty darned deep in the wonk weeds. Still, what Iโ€™ve included is a mere sampling of some of the comments from just a few of the commenters in the hope that it will give readers a better idea of where different stakeholders stand, and how complicated and difficult this situation really is.

For those who donโ€™t like weeds, hereโ€™s the short version: Itโ€™s a tangled mess with a bunch of moving pieces and stakeholders who are digging in their heels to ensure that their constituents get the water they need to drink, irrigate crops, run industries, or whatever. And theyโ€™re all butting up against the reality that there simply isnโ€™t enough water in the river to go around.

Ian James has a slightly less crunchy version for the Los Angeles Times.

Here are the comments and commenters:

Fourย Democratic members ofย Arizonaโ€™s congressional delegationย feel that the Lower Basin is getting the dry end of the stick (their comments are similar to those of theย Arizona Department of Water Resources):

  • Arizona is understandably displeased because they would take the greatest hit under any alternative. This is not because they are somehow inferior, but because the water rights to the Central Arizona Project, which delivers Colorado River water to Phoenix and Tucson, are junior to most other big users in the Lower Basin.ย โ€œโ€ฆ each alternative, though broad in scope, will translate in practice specifically as drastic reductions to Arizonaโ€™s water supply.โ€
  • โ€œWe are deeply troubled that Reclamation all but abandons its increasingly critical role in ensuring the Upper Basin States fulfill their delivery obligations under the Colorado River Compact of 1922 (Compact).โ€ย This refers to the non-depletion or minimum-delivery obligation that Iโ€™ve written about before.
  • โ€œThe DEIS itself acknowledges that โ€˜widespread impacts on social and economic conditions may also be possible,โ€™ including circumstances in which municipalities may need to pursue alternative or even hauled water sources to maintain basic services. Drastic cuts could have cascading consequences for human health and safety and destabilize the lives and livelihoods of Arizonans, tribal communities, and critical industries that rely on Colorado River supplies.โ€
  • They say the cuts will damage the stateโ€™s agriculture, manufacturing, and aerospace industries and that it will put at risk: โ€œโ€ฆ the largest concentration of advanced semiconductor manufacturing investment in the country, representing roughly $200 billion in announced projects since 2020.โ€ Semiconductor production is extremely water-intensive, with the average factory consuming up to 10 million gallons of ultra-pure water daily.
  • They call on any plans toย โ€œinclude verifiable Upper Basin conservation measures commensurate with Lower Basin conservation measures, including identifying tangible metrics that demonstrate Upper Basin water conservation.โ€

The Colorado River District, which represents water users on Coloradoโ€™s Western Slope, wasnโ€™t so psyched about the alternatives, either:

  • โ€œWe believe that Reclamation must institute bold and meaningful changes but that those changes must be implemented in a manner that is consistent with the 1922 Colorado River Compact, the 1944 binational treaty with Mexico, the 1948 Upper Basin Compact, and the other foundational elements of the Law of the River.โ€
  • โ€œReclamation must prioritize hydrologic reality over predictability for Lower Basin users. The Draft EIS places undue emphasis on predictability1 for water users, a goal that is unattainable under future climate conditions unless system storage is replenished and overall demands are permanently reduced to match the supply.โ€
  • โ€œโ€ฆ several alternatives include Upper Basin water conservation ranging from zero to 500,000 acre-feet annually โ€ฆ <but> โ€ฆ fails to analyze the environmental or socioeconomic impacts associated with these conservation volumes.โ€ย It adds that a 200,000 acre-feet reduction in the Upper Basin would require fallowing 52,000 acres on the Western Slope.
  • โ€œLower Basin water use must be reduced by 1.5 million acre-feet at all times, regardless of the alternative. This amount represents system losses (i.e., transit losses and reservoir evaporation) and should not be classified as shortage.โ€ย This is a longstanding issue. Reservoir evaporation and other such losses are counted against the Upper Basinโ€™s consumptive use, in part because of the non-depletion obligation. The same is not true for the Lower Basin; when they say they use 7.5 million acre-feet, that does not include evaporation or seepage or other system losses, only what they pull out of the river.
  • โ€œThe range of alternatives must include option(s) that perform under critically dry hydrology. Currently, none of the alternatives in the Draft EIS perform under critically dry hydrology. At least one alternative must protect critical infrastructure and respond effectively to significantly lower river flows than historically observed.โ€ย We are approaching a critically dry situation this summer, when the feds will have to decide whether and how to keep Lake Powell from dropping below minimum power pool. So far there is no plan for this.
  • โ€œHydrology must drive Post-2026 operations. Operating guidelines based upon comparative reservoir elevations which do not factor in real time hydrology have been disastrous for protecting storage in Lake Powell and thus, have failed to provide the water supply certainty for the Upper Basin intended by the Law of the River โ€ฆโ€
  • โ€œInterbasin transactions must not be allowed in the proposed action.โ€ย That is, Upper Basin users with senior rights should not be able to sell their water to Lower Basin users.

Theย team of Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Katherine Tara, and Kathryn Soren,ย river experts and academics who arenโ€™t representing any specific water user, state, or basin, alsoย weighed in. Their comments, as Fleck put it in hisย Inkstain blog, could be summed up as: โ€œTell us what youโ€™re going to do.โ€ย And, also:

  • The group calls on Interior toย โ€œprimarily focus on the Dry and Critically Dry scenarios. โ€ฆ We think it important to be mindful of the underlying year-to-year hydrology of the 21st century as we look to the future. โ€ฆ we are struck by the fact that 50% of the individual years of the 21st century have been Dry or Critically Dry, and only 27% of the years (including 2017, 2019, 2023) have been Moderately Wet or Wet.โ€
  • โ€œWe suggest that the DEIS include a description of an alternative that performs sufficiently well during Dry scenarios and an alternative that performs sufficiently well during Critically Dry scenarios.โ€
  • โ€œ โ€ฆ it is imperative that Reclamation provide a clear picture of what actions will be implemented in the near term (i.e., next year, next 3 years, next 5 years) to protect critical infrastructure, and to protect public health and safety.โ€
  • Noting that lawsuits are inevitable regardless of which alternative the feds choose, they urge them to avoid โ€œsafeโ€ options and go with a plan with โ€œโ€ฆ the broadest possible interpretation of Reclamationโ€™s and Interiorโ€™s authority to provide a predictable and resilient Colorado River so that the system can continue to operate in a reasonable manner while the lawsuits proceed.โ€
  • Call on the feds to โ€œโ€ฆ explore these areas for possible inclusion in the preferred alternative:
    • Reduction of deliveries in the Lower Basin in excess of 1.48 MAF when insufficient water is available for release.
    • Provision for releases of water from the Colorado River Storage Project initial units as necessary to protect critical elevations in Lake Powell and ensure continued Upper Basin Compact compliance.
    • Operation of federal projects in the Upper Basin to store or use less water during critical periods.
    • Continuation, expansion, and modification of Assigned Water programs (such as Intentionally Created Surplus and Mexican Water Reserve) with improvements to ensure operational neutrality and minimize adverse impact to priority water.
    • Establishing a conservation pool in Lake Powell for storing Upper Basin conserved water to be utilized for Compact compliance purposes. For more on conservation pools, check out the Shannon Mulaneโ€™sย explainerย in theย Colorado Sun.
  • The group finds fault with the plan for not addressingย โ€œthe need for enforceable reductions in the Upper Basin.โ€ย They go with the Lower Basinโ€™s interpretation of theย non-depletion/minimum-deliveryย obligation, saying that the Colorado River Compact does not guarantee that the Upper Basin gets half of the water in the river. Plus, they point out that the planโ€™s demand forecasts for the Upper Basin are unrealistically high, putting more of the burden for cuts on the Lower Basin.

Theย Southern Nevada Water Authorityย andย Colorado River Commission of Nevadaare especially critical, writing:

  • โ€œSince the onset of drought in 2002, <Nevada water users> have reduced their overall Colorado River water consumption by more than 40 percent even as our population grew by more than 875,000 people. And they, unlike so many others, have not ignored the reality facing the basin by making the flimsy argument that our economy cannot prosper while water consumption decreases.โ€
  • Like Arizona, they bring up the minimum-delivery/non-depletion clause of the Colorado River Compact and call on the Upper Basin to comply with it.
  • Interiorโ€™s โ€œโ€ฆ approach to protecting the Glen Canyon Dam river outlet works by reducing releases from Lake Powellโ€”rather than making infrastructure repairs and improvementsโ€”is shortsighted and harms Nevada and the Lower Basin States.โ€

Theย Upper Colorado River Commissionย emphasizesย the Lower Basinโ€™s history of exceeding its Colorado River Compact allocation and failing to account for evaporation and other system losses. Coloradoโ€™sย Upper Colorado River CommissionerBecky Mitchell submitted similar, very detailedย commentsย that emphasized the Colorado River Compactโ€™s equitable division of the river between the Upper Basin and Lower Basin. She points out that the Lower Basinโ€™s interpretation of the minimum-delivery/non-depletion clause contradicts and even negates that division.

๐Ÿ“– Reading (and watching) Room ๐Ÿง

Must read: Teal Lehtoโ€™s and Len Neceferโ€™s speculative fiction take on what might happen on the Colorado River, and to the people who rely on it, in 2030 if current climatic trends continue. Itโ€™s dramatic and sensational and catastrophic, but itโ€™s also very well informed, smart, and not at all far-fetched, in my humble opinion.

Report: Big Central #Arizona Project supply cuts would trigger huge economic hits, major job losses in Arizona — Tucson.com #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

A screenshot from a new Central Arizona Project video, which says if water deliveries to the canal system are cut too much it will “cripple our state, flatten our economy and weaken our national defense.” Provided by Central Arizona Project

Click the link to read the article the Tucson.com website (Tony Davis). Here’s an excerpt:

March 9, 2026

Arizona will take nearly a $3 trillion total economic hit and lose millions of jobs that would have come to the state by 2060 if Central Arizona Project deliveries are halted by the federal government,ย a new report from the project’s governing agency says. A CAP consultant’s report said the state’s total economic output would by 2060 be 11% to 14% lower than it otherwise would have been, under two proposed federal alternatives for managing the Colorado River. At worst, the state’s total jobs would shrink by 7.9% if the project’s supplies were eliminated, the report said.ย  In addition, the state would see substantial declines in population and housing growth by then with massive CAP cuts, compared to what would have happened without them, said the report.

The three-county agency that runs the CAP’s canal system, stretching from Lake Havasu on the Colorado River to just south of Tucson, commissioned this report from the consulting firm WestWater Research, based in Boise, Idaho. The agency, known as the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, has managed daily operations for CAP since it was under construction in the 1970s. CAP submitted this report as part of its comments sharply criticizing the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s draft environmental impact statement onย proposed alternatives aimed at curbing excessive water useย by cities and farms in the seven-state Colorado River Basin. It comes out shortly after project officials releasedย a video warning that such cuts would “flatten” Arizona’s economy. At the time the video came out, some outside water experts said it oversimplified and overestimated the impacts of CAP cuts, in part because the state and local governments have already stored huge amounts of CAP water underground to prepare for such emergencies. But the new report says those supplies will eventually be exhausted, forcing many cities to return to groundwater pumping, and that some shortages of groundwater supplies themselves also could begin in some regions as soon as the early 2030s.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Mining Monitor: Trump uranium mine? Or trolling? Also: A guest post on Glen Canyon Dam — Jonathan P. Thompson #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

The Henry Mountains, which are surrounded by and covered with mining claims, including the Trump 1-4 properties. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

March 3, 2026

The Bureau of Land Managementโ€™s Mineral & Land Records System seems like a strange place to get trolled. But I think it just happened. I was looking through the MLRS to try to get an idea of whether insanely high gold and silver prices, and relatively strong uranium prices, had inspired companies or speculators to stake new mining claims n southwestern Colorado and southeastern Utah, when I came across something that seemed almost satirical.

Late last year, Kimmerle Mining Company staked four 20.66-acre lode claims in Garfield County, Utah, on the east slope of the Henry Mountains (just east of Mt. Pennell). The claimโ€™s names? Trump I, Trump 2, Trump 3, and Trump 4.

The Kimmerle family, of Moab, control hundreds of mining claims across southeastern Utah. But they generally donโ€™t mine them, except, it seems, to make a point.

The Kimmerles are the ones who staked mining claims on a mesa just east of Hideout Canyon inside Bears Ears National Monument just months just before the Obama administration withdrew the area from new mining claims. After Trump shrunk the monument to exclude the White Canyon area in 2017, and just before Biden restored the boundaries in 2021, Kimmerle Mining staked five new claims in the area and acquired additional claims from another mining company. Kimmerle Mining promptly filed for a permit to do exploration work there, but the BLM said they had to demonstrate the claims โ€œvalidity,โ€ or show that they contained โ€œvaluable minerals.โ€ The process for doing so would cost up to $100,000.

Shortly thereafter, Kimmerle joined the state of Utahโ€™s lawsuit seeking to eviscerate the national monument, claiming that its establishment had caused him to lose out on mining profits.

No word on whether the firm plans on drilling or mining its Trump claims, but at least we know these folksโ€™ political leaning. 

There have been a handful of other notable mining claim locations in the area in the past six months, including:

  • Platoro West Inc., located in Durango, staked twelve 20.66-acre lode claims southeast of Ouray, Colorado, in the Bear Creek drainage near Darley and Engineer Mountains. The company is registered under the name of William Sheriff, who was recentlyย named executive chairman of Verdera Energy, which has interests in in-situ uranium mining in New Mexico.
  • CCKC Inc., of Philadelphia, located three 20-acre placer claims in Dolores County along the Dolores River upstream of Rico.
  • Roughead Resources of Moab (but which has also been associated with a Houston address) staked fifteen 20.66-acre lode claims in the Lisbon Valley of southeastern Utah near the Mi Vida Mine and the Lisbon Valley Copper Mine. At the same time, the company also staked dozens of claims in Beaver County, Utah.
  • Fermi Metals of Cocolalla, Idaho, staked twenty-three 20.66-acre claims on the southern slope of the La Sal Mountains, just north of the settlement of La Sal. This is near Energy Fuelsโ€™ La Sal Complex uranium mines.
  • Geobrines International, of Littleton, Colorado, staked twenty-five 20-acre placer claims in Grand County, Utah, along I-70 between Green River and Cisco. This adds to a cluster of previously filed claims in the same area. They are probably looking to do lithium extraction.
  • Utah Brine Corporation, of Omaha, Nebraska, staked seventy 20-acre claims southwest of the community of La Sal in the Lisbon Valley. UBC appears to be a subsidiary of Omaha Value Inc., which has partnered with an Australian critical materials firm Neometals on its Utah Brine Project, which aims to extract lithium and potash.
  • Antimony Canyon Sovereign Reserve Inc, a division of Australia firm American Tungsten & Antimony, staked nineteen 20.66-acre lode claims near Antimony, Utah, in Garfield County. The plan is toย develop an antimony mine here.

In other mining news:

  • Metallic Minerals has beenย eyeing and drilling into a copper depositย in the La Plata Mountains of southwestern Colorado. While actual mining may be a long ways off, concerned locals are already coming together toย keep an eye on the project and push back, if necessary. The La Plata Mountains and Public Lands Coalition now has about 225 members from the region, according to Dan King, the coalitionโ€™s administrator. Metallic Mineralsโ€™ proposal was just one of the catalysts for the coalition, and its mission is much broader and more regional in scope.

Gold and silver prices have shot up tremendously over the last year, probably due to the Trump-effect on the economy and the U.S. dollar, which is stuck at a ridiculously low exchange rate. Gold is now around $5,000/oz, while silver is hovering around $100/oz., compared to just $30 when Trump took office. Uraniumโ€™s doing well, too, sitting consistently in the $80/lb to $90/lb range. 

Which is to say, mining companies suddenly have a lot more incentive to invest in reopening existing, idle mines or even building new ones (assuming they have faith that the high prices will endure). So far, however, it doesnโ€™t seem to have sparked a surge in new mining activity. Even the Revenue-Virginius silver mine near Ouray, which is purportedly ready to produce ore, remains idle. 

The uranium sector does appear to be emerging from its long slumber, but mostly in the form of exploratory drilling, smaller companies selling claims to bigger ones, and staking mining claims on the increasingly sparse sections of public land that arenโ€™t already claimed. Anfield continues work on constructing its Velvet-Wood mine in the Lisbon Valley, but itโ€™s still a ways away from production (and its Shootaring mill is still mothballed and unlicensed). 

Energy Fuels is about the only firm actually producing conventional ore. According to their SEC filings, they pulled about 1.5 million pounds of uranium from the Pinyon Plain mine near the Grand Canyon and 155,000 pounds from their La Sal Complex in 2025. Their White Mesa Mill recovered 1 million pounds of uranium, which is a heck of a lot more than in the past, but still is far short of the facilityโ€™s 8-million-pound annual capacity. Despite all of this, the company still lost $86 million in 2025.

Meanwhile, the silver and gold mining corporations raked in massive profits, including:

  • Canadian corporation Barrick, which owns major gold mines in Nevada (Fourmile and Nevada Gold Mines) reported an attributable EBITDA of $8.16 billion last year, the โ€œhighest shareholder returnsโ€ in the companyโ€™s history.
  • Newmont (which jointly owns Nevada Gold Mines with Barrick) reported an adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 billion.
  • Kinross, owner of Bald Mountain and Round Mountain in Nevada, Fort Knox and Manh Choh in Alaska, and Kettle River-Curew Project in Washington, reported adjusted net earnings of $2.2 billion
  • Rio Tintoโ€™s โ€œprofit after tax attributable to owners of Rio Tinto (net earnings)โ€ $10 billion.ย 
  • SSR Mining, which owns a big mine in Nevada, only had a net income of $362 million; but that compares to 2024โ€™s loss of $350 million.

Speaking of commodity prices and profits: American oil and gas companies are poised to make out like bandits thanks to the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran. 

Iran produces some oil and gas. But more importantly, it borders the Strait of Hormuz and has threatened any oil and gas tankers that try to pass through it, effectively closing the passage. That could stanch the flow of oil and gas to the global market, causing prices to rise. The West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude oil price has shot up to about $76, the highest itโ€™s been since before Trump took office. This will cause gasoline prices to climb, but also make drilling in the U.S. more profitable, and could spur companies to start using the stockpile of public land drilling permits theyโ€™ve amassed over the last year or so. 

Liquefied natural gas tankers also are unable to get through the Strait to European markets, which will cause prices of the fuel to skyrocket. It could also force European countries to turn to U.S. LNG exporters, which could echo back to natural gas producing states like New Mexico and Wyoming (and also may increase U.S. natural gas prices if the conflict drags on).


Glen Canyon Dam Must Be Modified to Avoid Draconian Water Supply Disruptions

A guest post by Ron Rudolph

Glen Canyon Dam with the river outlets in use as part of the high-flow experimental release. The outlets are only used occasionally and are not engineered for sustained use. Usually, all of the releases go through the penstocks and the hydroelectric turbines. But that wonโ€™t be possible if the lake drops below the level known as minimum power pool. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Glen Canyon Dam, which impounds the Colorado River to form Lake Powell, is a single point of failure that poses an unacceptable risk to the functioning of the entire river system. Modifying the dam to allow more water to pass through or around it is an essential component of any plan for allocating the riverโ€™s dwindling supply. 

The damโ€™s structural flaw limits the amount of water that can pass from Lake Powell downstream to Lake Mead. Lake Mead, the nationโ€™s largest reservoir, is the primary repository of water for the Colorado Riverโ€™s so-called Lower Basin states: California, Arizona, and Nevada. A paucity of water released from Lake Powell would eventually force reductions in the amount of water extracted from Lake Mead, diminish drinking water supplies for millions, harm agricultural productivity throughout the southwest, and embroil the federal government, seven states, more than two dozen Tribal Nations, Mexico, and others that share the riverโ€™s water in a cascade of costly court cases. 

The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson

Due to Glen Canyon Damโ€™s physical limitations, when the elevation of Lake Powell reaches โ€œminimum power poolโ€ or lower, the only way to release water from the dam is through its river outlet works.1ย The persistent drought in the southwest, and continued demand for the riverโ€™s reduced water supply, makes it highly likely Lake Powell will fall to minimum power pool this year. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation estimated this month that Lake Powell could fall to minimum power pool by late July, and remain there or lower through 2027.2

The Bureau of Reclamationโ€™s latest forecast for the Colorado River predicts Lake Powell will โ€œmost probablyโ€ drop below the critical minimum power pool level before the end of this year, jeopardizing Glen Canyon Damโ€™s structural integrity. In the worst-case scenario, it would do so before summerโ€™s end. This could force the feds to operate the dam as a โ€œrun-of-the-riverโ€ operation to preserve the damโ€™s infrastructure and hydropower output, which would significantly diminish downstream flows and threaten Lower Basin water supplies.

In addition, the agencyโ€™s February forecast estimates that under โ€œmost probable inflowโ€ conditions, Lake Mead would drop below elevation 1,040 in June. If conditions do not improve by the agencyโ€™s August forecast, mandatory reductions in water use would be required in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Mexico.3ย If the annual amount of water let out from Lake Powell is restricted to the damโ€™s outlet works, it would result in less water reaching Lake Mead than any year this century, and could trigger even larger reductions in Lower Basin water consumption.4ย Releasing water from reservoirs upstream from Lake Powell could forestall the reservoir reaching minimum power pool, however, that is a non-sustainable solution, that fails to address Glen Canyon Damโ€™s fundamental plumbing problem.ย 

In January, the Bureau of Reclamationโ€™s draft environmental impact statement โ€” Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead โ€”proposed several options for managing the Colorado River for the next 20 years. None of the alternatives includes remedying Glen Canyon Damโ€™s structural flaws. 

The Bureauโ€™s proposals have been criticized by some of the largest consumers of Colorado River water who have signaled a willingness to challenge the agency in court. For example, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which serves nearly 19 million people, noted the Bureauโ€™s proposed alternatives โ€œwould likely lead to lengthy litigation.โ€5ย The Central Arizona Project, the second largest consumer of Colorado River water, has identified several โ€œlegal deficiencies,โ€ including non-compliance with the Colorado River Compact, and failure to adequately disclose and analyze the environmental, economic and socioeconomic impacts.6

Depending exclusively on the river outlet works to release sufficient water through Glen Canyon Dam is bound to fail, like relying on rainfall to grow crops in Arizona or southern California. The Bureau has warned relying on the outlet works would risk water supply disruptions to those who depend on Lake Powell and Lake Mead.7ย The Director of the Bureauโ€™s Technical Service Center has advised against using the outlet works as the sole means for releasing water from the dam,8ย as previous high-capacity use of them for only 72 hours caused structural damage, which required nine months to repair. Despite the remedial effort, the Bureau concluded the repairs will not prevent future damage.9ย The damโ€™s design flaw led the Arizona Department of Water Resources to conclude the structural limitations of Glen Canyon Dam must be alleviated.10

The calculus for equitably apportioning the diminishing water in the Colorado River is extremely complicated. But one variable in the equation is as obvious as the bathtub ring surrounding Lake Powell: a new system for conveying water sustainably through or around Glen Canyon Dam must be built. Without it, risks to the Colorado River system, and the communities, agriculture and ecosystems reliant on it, will escalate, as will pressure to impose compulsory reductions in consumptive uses throughout the basin. 

Ron Rudolph, a former assistant executive director of Friends of the Earth, spent 35 years in various engineering companies, including MWH Global, CH2M Hill, Jacobs Engineering, and Cardno with a career focused on infrastructure development and environmental remediation.


1 U.S.Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Decision Memorandum, Establishment of Interim Operating Guidance for Glen Canyon Dam During Low Reservoir Levels at Lake Powell, March 26, 2024, page 9

2 https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/24ms-projections.html

3 When Lake Mead drops below elevation 1,040, a โ€œLevel 2 Shortage Condition,โ€ mandatory reductions in water use by Arizona, California, Nevada, and Mexico are required by the 2007 Interim Guidelines for managing Lake Powell and Lake Mead, and the 2019 Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan

4 The Bureauโ€™s guidance for maximum release of water from each river outlet work (ROW) at minimum power pool elevation is 3,185 cubic feet/second (cfs). The agency has determined only three ROWs would be available simultaneously. If three ROWs operate at full capacity, they would release 9,555 cfs. 1 cfs sustained for a year = 724.acre-feet/year. 9,555 x 724.45 = 6,922,000 acre-feet/year. The maximum releases are specified in USBR, Technical Decision Memorandum, Establishment of Interim Operating Guidance for Glen Canyon Dam During Low Reservoir Levels at Lake Powell, March 26, 2024, page 2. The determination that only three ROWs would be available simultaneously in based on USBR, Near-term Colorado River Operations, Final Supplemental Impact Statement, March 2024, page 2-3. The least amount of water released this century was 7 million acre-feet in 2022, based on data from U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado River Accounting and Water Use Report: Arizona, California and Nevada, 2000-2024

5 Statement of Metropolitan Water Districtโ€™s General Manager, Shivaji Deshmukh, January 9, 2026

6 Patrick Dent, Assistant General Manager, Water Policy, Central Arizona Project, Report on Post-2026 Draft Environmental Impact Statement, February 5, 2026ย 

7 U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Near-term Colorado River Operations, Final Supplemental Impact Statement, March 2024, page 1-9, footnote 10

8 USBR, Technical Decision Memorandum, Establishment of Interim Operating Guidance for Glen Canyon Dam During Low Reservoir Levels at Lake Powell, March 26, 2024, page 9

9 USBR, Reclamation completes recoating of outlet tubes at Glen Canyon Dam ahead of schedule, June 18, 2025; https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/5184ย 

10 Email from Trent Blomberg on behalf of Tom Buschatzke, Director, Arizona Department of Water Resources, February 4, 2026

Central Arizona Project: Letter to Secretary Burgum about the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for #LakePowell and #LakeMead — Terry Goddard and Brenda Burman #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Central Arizona Project map via Mountain Town News

Click the link to go to the Central Arizona Project website Colorado River Operations where you can find links to the relevant documents with respect to the DEIS.

Click the link to read the letter on the Central Arizona Project website (Terry Goddard and Brenda Burman):

Secretary Burgum:

On behalf of the Central Arizona Project and twenty-two Arizona Participating Entities that rely on the Colorado River, I am submitting the attached comments that express our deep concerns regarding the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) for the Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead and the devastating impacts the alternatives therein would impose on Arizona.

All the alternatives proposed in the DEIS disproportionately harm Arizona and are unacceptable. Specifically, the Basic Coordination alternative proposed in the DEIS that Reclamation claims could be imposed without Arizonaโ€™s consent all but severs much of Central and Southern Arizona from Colorado River supplies that have been relied upon on for four decades, betraying the promise of sustainable water supplies that underly Arizonaโ€™s economy and potentially causing โ€œwidespread impacts on social and economic conditions. . . .โ€ that may force cities and towns to โ€œhaul water . . . as an alternative to support continued services.โ€1 Arizona will not tolerate devastation and destabilization, particularly when the DEIS allows other Basin States to increase their water use.

The waters of the Colorado River are foundational to the economy and people of Central and Southern Arizona, supporting 6 million Arizonans, many tribal communities, a thriving advanced microchip manufacturing industry, and critical mineral and agricultural production. Arizona has cultivated a flourishing desert society over the past 40 years through careful and prudent use of Colorado River water supplied by the Central Arizona Projectโ€”more than doubling the Stateโ€™s population while managing at the same time to use less water. The DEIS alternatives threaten to tear apart a generation of careful water management and topple the architecture supporting Arizonaโ€™s economy which is home to the heart of the American semi-conductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure industries.

The DEIS alternatives are not just a failure of policy but also include fatal legal deficiencies, and we respectfully request that the Department of the Interior withdraw the document. The United States must implement a decision that is consistent with the Colorado River Compact of 1922 (Compact), the Law of the River, and wise water policyโ€”the DEIS fails on all counts. The enclosed comments highlight several critical flaws in the DEIS, including but not limited to:

  • Inconsistency with the Compact and the Law of the River: Absent agreement by the Basin States, the operating criteria for the Colorado River must comply with the foundational authority on the Colorado River: the Compact. All subsequent statutes, regulations, contracts, and other agreements are subject to compliance with the Compact and the DEIS ignores this foundational issue by proposing alternatives that would result in a breach thereof.
  • Failure to Analyze Upper Basin Delivery Obligations: The DEIS fails to consider or model the impacts of Upper Basin delivery obligations due to a Compact deficiency, including required releases from Colorado River Storage Project Act Upper Initial Units and curtailment in the Upper Basin necessary to prevent a breach of the Compact. This analysis is particularly important at this time, as a breach of the Upper Basinโ€™s Compact delivery obligations could occur within the next 12 months.
  • Failure to Analyze the Devastating Socioeconomic Impacts to Arizona: The DEIS fails to analyze the widespread destabilizing social and economic impacts on Arizona that would be caused by the deep cuts to Arizonaโ€™s Colorado River supplies proposed in the document and could cause Arizonaโ€™s economy to lose over $2.7 trillion.
  • Failure to Evaluate Reasonable Alternatives: The range of alternatives is too narrow and neglects to evaluate the reasonable and feasible Lower Basin Alternative which would equitably share cuts needed to stabilize the Colorado River System among all seven Basin States and Mexico.
  • Illegal Implementation of the so-called โ€œJunior Priorityโ€ on the Central Arizona Project: Arizona never agreed and the law does not make the Central Arizona Project a junior user to the Upper Basin. The DEIS fails by proposing deep cuts to Arizonaโ€™s water supplies without Compact compliance or required reductions to the Upper Basin. Further, the โ€œjunior priorityโ€ described in the Colorado River Basin Project Act and used to distribute the DEIS cuts to the Lower Basin is a facially unconstitutional imposition on Arizonaโ€™s sovereignty and illegally attempts to make Arizona a second-class citizen among the other Lower Basin States.

For these reasons and others described in the attached comments, the current DEIS does not provide the “hard look” at environmental consequences required by law. Proceeding with this document is highly likely to lead to legal challenges and long-term environmental damage that has not been analyzed.

We welcome the opportunity to work with the Department of the Interior to ensure the revised DEIS is robust and legally durable. Arizona has been a willing partner in attempting to negotiate a consensus solution to the management challenges facing Colorado River operations and continues to stand ready to find a compromise with the Secretary, the other Basin States, and additional Colorado River stakeholders based on shared sacrifice and a recognition that everyone must reduce their uses to stabilize the system. A revised DEIS is essential to comply with NEPA and properly inform the public and decision-makers and to avoid protracted litigation.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Federal Water Tap, March 2, 2026: Reclamation Outlines Options to Prop Up Shrinking #LakePowell — Brett Walton (circleofblue.org) #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the Circle of Blue website (Brett Walton):

The Rundown

  • Interior Department overhauls itsย environmental reviewย procedures.
  • GAO says NOAA, which has oversight authority, should do a better job of trackingย cloud seedingย and other weather modification.
  • Senate passes a bill to allow southern Nevadaโ€™s water authority to build aย water-supply pipelineย beneath a national conservation area.
  • EPA staffย decreased 7 percent in the nine months through June 2025, GAO found.
  • Army Corps directive aims toย speed up infrastructure work, prioritize projects.
  • House Democrats from the D.C. region ask Congress to fund the repair of a majorย sewer pipe break.

And lastly, Bureau of Reclamation officials outline options for propping up a shrinking Lake Powell.

โ€œI think itโ€™s safe for us to assume that unless Mother Nature is uncharacteristically generous, that Lake Powell elevations are going to fluctuate at elevations that weโ€™re not comfortable with.โ€ โ€“ Wayne Pullan, Bureau of Reclamation Upper Colorado regional director, speaking about the possibility that Lake Powell drops low enough later this year that Glen Canyon Dam cannot generate hydropower.

In context: Two-Decade Hydropower Plunge at Big Colorado River Dams

By the Numbers

7 Percent: Decrease in EPA staff between September 2024 and June 2025, according to a Government Accountability Office audit.

10: States that have weather modification programs, typically cloud seeding to induce rainfall, according to a GAO report.

News Briefs

Interior NEPA Changes
The Interior Department overhauled its environmental review procedures, aligning them with recent court decisions, congressional action, and Trump administration priorities.

The final rule sets page limits (150 pages in most cases, up to 300 for actions of โ€œextraordinary complexityโ€) and time limits (generally two years) on environmental impact statements.

The new rules do not require public comment on draft environmental impact statements. The only mandatory opportunity for public comment is after the department issues a notice that it intends to prepare an EIS.

Reviews already in progress, those with โ€œapplications that are sufficiently advanced,โ€ will be held to the previous standard.

Illustration from the report, โ€œAntique Plumbing & Leadership Postponedโ€ from the Utah Rivers Council,
Glen Canyon Institute and the Great Basin Water Network. Courtesy of Utah Rivers Council

Lake Powell Options
Officials at the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that manages Colorado River dams, outlined several actions they are considering in the coming months to boost water levels in a rapidly shrinking Lake Powell, which could drop to a record low later this year that would halt hydropower production from Glen Canyon Dam for the first time.

The Colorado Riverโ€™s second-largest reservoir behind Lake Mead is entering one of the most difficult periods in its six-decade history. The basin is drying due to a warming climate. Powell is just a quarter full, and projected to drop lower this year. Winter has been a dud, with warm temperatures and a historically bad snowpack in the Colorado mountains that feed into the reservoir.

Reclamation officials discussed their options during a meeting last week of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group, an expert committee that advises on the damโ€™s ecological impacts.

A 2024 decision allows Reclamation to โ€œconsider all tools that are availableโ€ to keep Powell from dropping below 3,500 feet, an elevation that provides a little wiggle room for maintaining hydropower production. Powell today sits at 3,531 feet.

The tool from the 2024 decision is Section 6(E), which grants Reclamation the authority to restrict water releases from Powell to as low as 6 million acre-feet. The planned release this year is 7.48 million acre-feet, so the Section 6(E) authority represents a potential 20 percent reduction.

A cut of that magnitude might not be necessary because Reclamation has another tool it can use in tandem.

That option is releasing more water from Flaming Gorge and other smaller reservoirs located higher in the watershed. This is called a DROA release after its authorizing document. Pullan said this action, which states in the lower basin are advocating for, is being discussed and the volume of those releases would be determined in the spring, around April or May.

In context: Big Decisions Loom for a Rapidly Shrinking Lake Powell

Southern Nevada Water Pipeline
The Senate passed a bill that allows southern Nevadaโ€™s water provider to tunnel beneath Sloan Canyon National Conservation Area in order to build a pipeline to increase the water-supply systemโ€™s reliability. The bill now goes to the presidentโ€™s desk.

Studies and Reports

โ€˜Army Modeโ€™ for the Army Corps
Adam Telle, head of the Army Corps of Engineers, issued a collection of directives aimed at reducing paperwork and speeding up water infrastructure construction.

In one memo, Telle called for an โ€œArmy Modeโ€ mobilization. He ordered a bottom-up approach whereby officials will select at least 20 projects nationally to prioritize. The list is due March 20.

A separate memo lists seven focus areas for infrastructure work. In descending order of importance: human life and safety, economically or strategically important infrastructure, efficient navigation and supply chains, human property, aquatic ecosystems, state-level infrastructure, and municipal infrastructure.

In yet another memo, he said that project investigations โ€“ part of the planning phase โ€“ should take no more than three years and $3 million.

Cost of Natural Hazards for the Defense Department
The Defense Department lacks data to understand fully the costs of natural hazards to its installations, according to a Government Accountability Office report.

The GAO made five recommendations, including resilience planning, data collection standards, guidance, and procedures. The Defense Department agreed with all of them.

Weather Modification
The GAO also looked into NOAAโ€™s tracking of activities to induce rainfall or otherwise change the weather.

Thanks to a 1972 law, NOAA has oversight authority over weather modification and any entity that shoots silver iodide into clouds to make it rain is required to file a report with the agency. Solar geoengineering, which attempts to reduce air temperatures, is far less common but also covered under this authority.

The GAO found that NOAAโ€™s database is incomplete, inconsistent, and unreliable. One fifth of interim and final reports had at least one error, the GAO estimates.

โ€œConsequently, NOAA is not fully aware of the extent of weather modification activities that have occurred and are occurring within the U.S., how they are being conducted, or potential effects,โ€ the GAO concluded.

On the Radar

How to Sue the EPA
The EPA is proposing to change the process for filing citizen lawsuits, moving from mail delivery to electronic submissions.

Public comments are due March 26. Submit them via http://www.regulations.gov using docket number EPA-HQ-OGC-2024-0557.

Water Infrastructure Funding
In the wake of a large-diameter sewer line rupture along the Potomac River, House Democrats from Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia wrote to leaders of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee asking for funding for repairs.

The letter also asked for the Army Corps of Engineers to prioritize a study of a backup drinking water source for the capital region, which relies on the Potomac.

โ€œUnlike other major metropolitan areas, the region lacks a secondary water supply, which would provide critical redundancy in the event of a future crisis.โ€

Federal Water Tap is a weekly digest spotting trends in U.S. government water policy. To get more water news, follow Circle of Blue on Twitter and sign up for our newsletter.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

It’s getting hot in here … and it ain’t just the January Thaw: Plus: #ColoradoRiver Chronicles; Big Bend Border Wall boondoggle — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org) #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

February 27, 2026

๐Ÿฅต Aridification Watch ๐Ÿซ

Back in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when I lived in Silverton, Colorado, elevation 9,318 feet, we often experienced a โ€œJanuary thaw.โ€ย It was a period of a few sunny, warm days between storms that usually fell in January but could also occur in February. If you could find a south-facing deck that was protected from the wind and free of dangling, skull-piercing icicles, you could sit out in shirtsleeves, soak up some vitamin D, and maybe even get a little bit of a suntan. Then winter, below zero temperatures, and super snowy San Juaners would return, finally and grudgingly departing sometime in late May.

A pretty big swath of the Southwest is about to experience a February thaw of its own, according to National Weather Service forecasts, including in these hot spots:

  • Phoenixโ€™s mercury could climb into the low- to mid-90s this weekend [February 28 – March 1, 2026], with overnight lows in the 60s.
  • Durango, Colorado, is expecting to hit 66ยฐ F on Sunday (with lows staying above freezing).
  • It will be prime bike-riding weather in Moab, where the highs could climb into the low 70s.
  • And even Silverton will get up into the 50s, with the overnight lows dipping only a few degrees below freezing โ€” bad news for the snow.
  • Denver is under a red flag warning for fire danger today, and will see temperatures in the high 60s.

During a โ€œnormalโ€ winter, this wouldnโ€™t be alarming in the slightest. In fact, it would be a welcome respite from winter. Now it threatens to wipe out any indication that it even is winter by potentially erasing the snowpack gained during last weekโ€™s storms. The Upper Colorado River Basinโ€™s snowpack is exactly at the same level as it was on this date in 2002. Ohhh boy, if those March storms donโ€™t arrive itโ€™s going to be a long, dry summer.


The trouble with normal … — Jonathan P. Thompson


๐Ÿ’ง Colorado River Chronicles ๐ŸŸ

As a deal between the seven Colorado states for how to divvy up massive consumption cuts seems less and less likely, Arizona is getting a bit more aggressive.This week the Protecting Arizonaโ€™s Lifeline Coalition launched a PR campaign, complete with videos, attempting to pressure the Upper Basin states to let more water flow downstream to its Lower Basin neighbors. 

Arizona is understandably worried: The Central Arizona Projectโ€™s water rights are junior to most of the other large users in the Lower Basin, meaning they would be among the first to take cuts if there were a shortage. The window for a dramatic improvement in Upper Basin snowpack is rapidly closing, thereby increasing the likelihood of a shortage later this year. 

The campaign includes a series of videos with various officials making their case. There are also a few educational ones that do a nice job of explaining the Colorado River Compact, and are really worth a watch. However, I should warn you that they are coming from a Lower Basin perspective, meaning they interpret one clause of the Compact, Article III(d), significantly differently than the Upper Basin states. And yet, thatโ€™s what their entire argument relies on. 

That clause states that the Upper Basin must โ€œnot cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75 million acre-feetโ€ for any 10-year period. 

The Upper Basin sees this as a โ€œnon-depletion obligation,โ€ meaning it blocks them from exceeding their 7.5 MAF/year allocation if it causes the Lee Ferry flow to fall below a 7.5 MAF/year average. The Lower Basin sees it as a โ€œminimum delivery obligation,โ€ meaning that the Upper Basin is obliged to send an average of 7.5 MAF past Lee Ferry no matter what, even if that means draining all of its reservoirs and drying out its fields and cities.

Keeping that in mind, check out the video:


A Colorado River glossary and primer — Jonathan P. Thompson

The Colorado River Crisis is Here — Jonathan P. Thompson


๐Ÿคฏ Oh, the Humans! ๐Ÿ˜ฑ

In a comment on Tuesdayโ€™s dispatch, reader Steve Harris suggested a story on the U.S. Customs and Border Protection fast-tracking a 200-mile segment of border wall through Big Bend National Park.

This is a super important issue. And itโ€™s not only in Big Bend: The entire border wall is an environmental disaster, slashing through biologically diverse, beautiful country and cutting off migratory routes and movement for mountain lions, javelina, coyotes, ocelot, deer, desert bighorns, and even jaguars. Keep in mind that itโ€™s not just a fence, itโ€™s a giant piece of infrastructure that requires bulldozing all the vegetation and even blasting through the landscape. Besides that, we taxpayers are forking out billions of dollars for something that isnโ€™t all that great at doing what itโ€™s supposed to do.

For me itโ€™s especially heartbreaking to see the wall cut through the borderlands south of Tucson, down in the Patagonia Mountains. Many years ago my dad took my brother and I along some little road through there right up against the border, which at the time was just a barbed wire fence. It was incredible country, so quiet and mostly humanity-free.

The stakes are equally as high in the Big Bend area, where both ecological and cultural treasures are at risk. Unfortunately Iโ€™ve never been to Big Bend, and itโ€™s a little ways outside the region I normally cover, so Iโ€™m not going to try to pretend to know whatโ€™s going on there. But a lot of other smart folks have written about it and are trying to block the new stretch of wall, so Iโ€™ll share some of that here:

  • Border Patrol mapย of existing, planned, and awarded segments of wall, including the stretch through Big Bend โ€” which consists of about 100 miles of actual physical wall plus segments of โ€œdetection technologyโ€ in the most rugged areas.
  • The Border Wall Mapย with videos showing whatโ€™s at stake.
  • Theย Texas Observerย has aย good storyย on the wall plans and the way the โ€œBig Beautiful Billโ€ not only allocates $46.5 billion to build the monstrosity, but also erased existing protections for some areas.
  • The Texas Tribuneย andย Inside Climate Newsย worked together on a story thatย talks about local opposition.
  • Peer-reviewed study on how the border wall impedes wildlife movement.
๐ŸŒต Public Lands ๐ŸŒฒ

Environmental groups and environmentally-oriented media outlets are making a pretty big stink over the confirmation hearings for Steve Pearce, Trumpโ€™s pick to lead the Bureau of Land Management. Thereโ€™s a good reason for this: Pearce is well known for his hostility toward the BLM and the public lands it oversees, and he has also indicated a desire to sell off public land โ€” a stance he failed to renounce during this weekโ€™s hearings.

Pearce is a bad choice for this job. But is it worth spending a lot of resources to get him ousted? Probably not.

If the Senate does not confirm Pearce, then the administration will just find some other bozo to do the job, which in this case is basically a middle manager tasked with carrying out the agenda of Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. Burgum, in turn, is merely executing the Trump administrationโ€™s, i.e. Project 2025, policies.

Which I have to say is disappointing and sad. Before he was a cabinet member, Burgum seemed like a reasonable enough guy. Sure he has ties to oil and gas interests, but he also appeared to be a Teddy Roosevelt Republican โ€” an old school conservative and conservationist who valued public lands. He even managed to garner the endorsement of outdoor retailer REIโ€™s board along with that of the hook and bullet crowd.

Instead, he has prostrated himself to the extractive industries, embraced coal mining and oil and gas drilling, and shattered environmental protections for public lands left and right. His distinguishing features as a cabinet member have been his unwavering sneer-like grin and his tendency to fawn over Trump โ€” and coal.

***

Your energy and outrage might be better spent on convincing Congress to shoot down Sen. Mike Leeโ€™s, R-Utah, attempt to use the Congressional Review Act to revoke the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument management plan. If the โ€œresolution of disapprovalโ€ passes both chambers of Congress with a simple majority vote, it would erase the plan and bar the Bureau of Land Management from issuing another plan that is โ€œsubstantially the sameโ€ in the future.

Republicans in the current Congress used the CRA โ€” which allows Congress to revoke recently implemented administrative rules โ€” to do away with resource management plans in Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota. Thatโ€™s in spite of the fact that RMPs are not considered โ€œrules,โ€ according to a January 2025 opinion by the Interior Departmentโ€™s Solicitor. National monument management plans arenโ€™t rules, either, but thatโ€™s not a hindrance for Lee.

This wouldnโ€™t change the boundaries of the monument, but would likely cause management of the area to revert back to the 2020, Trump I-era plan. That plan was not only less protective than the newer one, but only applied to a much smaller area, since in 2017 Trump had significantly shrunk the national monument. Revoking the current management plan, then, would leave vast areas of the monument in a sort of management limbo.

It would also open the door to revoking other national monument management plans (e.g. Bears Ears), allowing the GOP to carry out Project 2025โ€™s goal of shrinking or eliminating national monuments in a less visible, more underhanded manner.


Just a couple reminders from a few years ago that it does snow, and it will snow again โ€” just maybe not this spring. Jonathan P. Thompson photos.

Big Decisions Loom for a Rapidly Shrinking #LakePowell: Reclamation considers actions to prop up the #ColoradoRiverโ€™s second-largest reservoir — Brett Walton (circleofblue.org) #COriver #aridification

Glen Canyon Dam. Photo credit: Circle of Blues

Click the link to read the article on the Circle of Blue website (Brett Walton):

February 26, 2026

Officials at the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that manages Colorado River dams, outlined several actions they are considering in the coming months to boost water levels in a rapidly shrinking Lake Powell, which could drop to a record low later this year that would halt hydropower production from Glen Canyon Dam for the first time.

The Colorado Riverโ€™s second-largest reservoir behind Lake Mead is entering one of the most difficult periods in its six-decade history. The basin is drying due to a warming climate. Powell is just a quarter full, and projected to drop lower this year. Winter has been a dud, with warm temperatures and a historically bad snowpack in the Colorado mountains that feed into the reservoir.

Decisions in the next three months about how much water to release from Powell and how much to hold back will reverberate across the basin, affecting hydropower production, legal obligations, watershed ecology, threatened species, and millions of people who use its water and energy.

โ€œThings are happening in parallel and not in sequence,โ€ said Wayne Pullan, Reclamationโ€™s Upper Colorado Basin regional director. โ€œWeโ€™re going to be doing everything all at once.โ€

Pullan and other Reclamation officials discussed their options during a meeting Wednesday of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group, an expert committee that advises on the damโ€™s ecological impacts.

The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson

The number that federal officials are paying attention to is 3,490 feet. Below that point, Glen Canyon Dam cannot produce hydropower. Powell would be too low for water to flow through the power-generating turbines.

A 2024 decision allows Reclamation to โ€œconsider all tools that are availableโ€ to keep Powell from dropping below 3,500 feet, an elevation that provides a little wiggle room for maintaining hydropower production. Powell today sits at 3,531 feet.

โ€œI think itโ€™s safe for us to assume that unless Mother Nature is uncharacteristically generous, that Lake Powell elevations are going to fluctuate at elevations that weโ€™re not comfortable with,โ€ Pullan said.

The tool from the 2024 decision is Section 6(E), which grants Reclamation the authority to restrict water releases from Powell to as low as 6 million acre-feet. The planned released this year is 7.48 million acre-feet, so the Section 6(E) authority represents a potential 20 percent reduction.

A cut of that magnitude might not be necessary because Reclamation has another tool it can use in tandem.

That option is releasing more water from Flaming Gorge and other smaller reservoirs located higher in the watershed. This is called a DROA release after its authorizing document. Pullan said this action, which states in the lower basin are advocating for, is being discussed and the volume of those releases would be determined in the spring, around April or May.

โ€œItโ€™s important to remember that this is all in flux,โ€ Pullan said. โ€œThis cake is being mixed and isnโ€™t baked in any way yet.โ€

A previous DROA release in 2022-23 moved 463,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge into Lake Powell. Flaming Gorge today is 82 percent full, holding almost 3 million acre-feet.

Note the dotted red line. If says that itโ€™s possible that power production at Glen Canyon Dam could end by August.

Reclamationโ€™s current projections show Powell dropping below hydropower production level by December, in an average water supply scenario. If snowpack and runoff continue to run below average, then that threshold could be breached, barring interventions, in August.

Katrina Grantz, Reclamationโ€™s deputy regional director, said that in the most probable water supply scenario the agency has the tools to be able to keep Powell above 3,500 feet over the next 12 months. But it is still analyzing how and when to deploy them.

โ€œReclamation is working on various scenarios of how this could play out,โ€ Grantz said.

There are other considerations in the mix. Powell is the source of cold-water releases to help native fish. The water this year could be record warm. Powell is also the source of high-volume flows to move sediment that rebuilds Grand Canyon beaches and steadier flows that assist aquatic insects. Releases have implications for boating and recreation, too.

A shrinking Lake Powell has implications for water supply, recreation, fisheries, hydropower generation, watershed ecology, and legal requirements. Photo J. Carl Ganter/Circle of Blue

The basinโ€™s abysmal hydrology coincides with deep political and legal uncertainty. Current reservoir management guidelines expire at the end of the year, and the seven basin states have not been able to agree on their replacement. Reclamation instead is forging its own path, aiming to finalize a decision this summer.

Reduced releases from Powell could also cause the four upper basin states โ€“ Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming โ€“ to violate the Colorado River Compact, which requires a certain volume of water to move downstream. This requirement and its legal ramifications are not clear and could be litigated.

It all amounts to an unsettling time for those working in the basin.

โ€œWe have to work with the resources we have,โ€ Pullan said. โ€œWishing will not make things so.โ€

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

#ColoradoRiver crisis fails to force deal from states: Dry conditions and federal deadlines not working like in the past — Heather Sackett (AspenJournalism.org) #COriver #aridification

Water levels were low at Lake Powellโ€™s Wahweep Marina in November 2021. Recent worst-case projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation show the reservoir declining below power pool by July. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

February 20, 2026

The Colorado River crisis is no longer part of some hypothetical future โ€” itโ€™s here. 

Fueled by one of the worst snowpacks on record, the โ€œmost probableโ€ February projection from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation estimates 5 million acre-feet flowing into Lake Powell this year, which is 52% of average. A more grim estimate puts that number at just 3.5 million acre-feet, or 37% of average. 

Forecasts show the nationโ€™s second-largest reservoir could fall below the minimum level needed to make hydropower at Glen Canyon Dam as soon as July under the worst-case scenario, or by December under the โ€œmost probableโ€ forecast. Reservoir levels are projected to fall to their lowest elevation on record in March 2027, threatening the water supply for millions in the Southwest. 

But the increasingly dire projections, this winterโ€™s historically bad snowpack and the growing gap between supply and demand havenโ€™t yet pushed the seven states that share the river to come to an agreement on its future management. 

Last week, state negotiators blew past a second federally set deadline to find a consensus plan on how to share shortages and manage Lake Powell and Lake Mead after the current guidelines expire at the end of the year. They have been stuck at an impasse for two years. 

The need for a new management paradigm that adapts to a shrinking water supply has never been more urgent. So why isnโ€™t the crisis forcing a deal?

โ€œWeโ€™re at a moment where we really need something different that responds to our current hydrology, our current demands, and weโ€™re not seeing a development of that kind,โ€ said Elizabeth Koebele, a professor of political science and associate director of the graduate program of hydrologic sciences at the University of Nevada, Reno. โ€œYouโ€™d think that all of these signals would be pointing to the fact that we really need to do something different, but weโ€™re not.โ€

Anne Castle, a former federal representative to the Upper Colorado River Commission and a Colorado River expert, co-authored a paper in 2021 that said successful negotiations of new Colorado River agreements tend to be triggered by very dry conditions, and that federal directives and deadlines also play an important role. But the current stalemate amid worsening drought throws those findings into question.

โ€œOur premise was that a crisis in terms of water supply and reservoir levels and snowpack and expected runoff can prompt creative compromise,โ€ Castle said. โ€œBut we have all those underlying conditions, and we donโ€™t have a compromise.โ€

The scale of the problem could be part of whatโ€™s making consensus difficult between the Upper Basin (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) and the Lower Basin (California, Arizona and Nevada). As a junior water user on the river, the Central Arizona Project, which supplies the metro Phoenix and Tucson areas, could face the deepest cuts. 

โ€œI think if this had been a 2 million-acre-foot problem, the states probably could have solved it, but itโ€™s potentially a 4 million-acre-foot problem,โ€ said Kathryn Sorensen, a researcher and professor at Arizona State Universityโ€™s Kyl Center for Water Policy. โ€œThereโ€™s so little water to go around that positions have become hardened as a result. Weโ€™re not just talking about inconvenient cuts; weโ€™re talking about severe pain to economies at this point.โ€ 

Federal involvement

Some of the normal levers that have been pulled to force action in the past โ€” such as directives and deadlines from the federal government โ€” donโ€™t seem to be effective in the current situation. There have been no apparent consequences for the states missing both the Feb. 14 deadline and an initial Nov. 11 deadline set by the feds for the states to present the outline of an agreement. 

The seven state negotiators and their governors were summoned to Washington, D.C., the last week of January for a meeting with Department of Interior officials. That, too, failed to result in a deal.

In a Feb. 14 news release, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum thanked the governors for their engagement and said a fair compromise with shared responsibility remains within reach.

Koebele said when the states were hashing out the 2007 guidelines, which currently govern the river and are just months from expiring, the threat of federal action was part of what spurred the states to come up with a plan. 

โ€œThereโ€™s a little bit less of this idea of a single or central federal leader in the negotiation process,โ€ Koebele said. โ€œAnd theyโ€™re also still saying, โ€˜Hey, states, please come up with your own option too.โ€™ Iโ€™m not really sure how credible threats are from the federal government when weโ€™re in this sort of context.โ€

Reclamation has presented five options for managing the river, but although the federal government owns and operates the infrastructure such as dams and reservoirs, it doesnโ€™t have the authority to implement all of the actions outlined in the options. The new, innovative and collaborative actions would need an agreement among the states. 

Absent that, federal officials believe the only tools at their disposal, which allocate cuts based on prior appropriation and existing water law, could see Arizona take up to 77% of total shortages, yet they โ€œmay not provide adequate protection of critical infrastructure or the system and may be viable only in the short term given current reservoir conditions,โ€ according the bureau.

The federal management options are part of a draft environmental impact statement, which is required as part of the National Environmental Policy Act review for new guidelines. This process is moving forward on a separate, parallel track to negotiations among the states. If the states agree on a plan, it could be plugged into the EIS and become the โ€œpreferred alternative.โ€

โ€œWeโ€™re sort of at a key moment for those two processes coming together,โ€ Koebele said. โ€œBut the EIS and the state negotiations are not really intersecting in a way that we have seen them intersect in the past or that we hoped they would.โ€

Federal officials are accepting comments on the draft EIS until March 2.

Lake Pleasant, seen in April 2025, is a storage bucket for Colorado River water and is part of the Central Arizona Project that delivers water to the Phoenix and Tucson areas. According to one river management option from the federal government, Arizona would take the majority of shortages in dry years. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Blame to go around

In a series of news releases on February 13, 2026Upper Basin and Lower Basin officials blamed each other for the continuing standoff.ย 

โ€œWeโ€™re being asked to solve a problem we didnโ€™t create with water we donโ€™t have,โ€ Coloradoโ€™s representative, Becky Mitchell, said in a prepared statement. โ€œThe Upper Divisionโ€™s approach is aligned with hydrologic reality, and weโ€™re ready to move forward.โ€ 

The crux of the issue is who should take shortages in drought years. The Lower Basin has committed to 1.5 million acre-feet of reductions annually and wants cuts beyond that to be shared by the Upper Basin. The Upper Basin says their water users already take cuts in some years because streams run dry by midsummer and any contributions they make through conservation must be voluntary.

Water managers upstream of Leeโ€™s Ferry would note that they were promised an equal amount of water as the Lower Basin was in the 1922 Colorado River Compact, although they use about 4 million acre-feet a year, while the Lower Basin โ€” whose flows are backed up by releases from the countryโ€™s two largest reservoirs โ€” regularly uses all of the annual 7.5 million acre-feet to which itโ€™s entitled. The Lower Basinโ€™s position points to its larger population and economic output, and that their water users, already subject to mandatory cutbacks, tend to be more aggressive in their conservation measures.

โ€œItโ€™s the fundamental disagreement that weโ€™ve had for the past many years,โ€ Castle said. โ€œThe Upper Basin doesnโ€™t want to agree to any enforceable reductions in use. And that is something that the Lower Basin, and Arizona in particular, donโ€™t feel like they can live with.โ€

The states appeared to be on the verge of a breakthrough last summer, when representatives from both basins indicated a willingness to consider a supply-driven approach, where reservoir releases are more directly tied to the natural flow of the river. But hashing out the details is complicated, and a plan that all parties can agree to has yet to emerge. 

Note the dotted red line. If says that itโ€™s possible that power production at Glen Canyon Dam could end by August.

A new management plan would need to be in place by the start of the new water year on Oct. 1. And if the states canโ€™t reach an agreement by then, the federal government will impose its own management rules, doling out cutbacks that could trigger lawsuits from the states but would not go far enough to prevent the system from crashing. 

Even if the states come to an eleventh-hour agreement, federal action will be needed in the immediate future to protect levels at Lake Powell and the ability to produce hydropower. The dire projections showing Powell dropping below minimum power pool assume that the feds would release 7.48 million acre-feet from Powell this year, but under a short-term agreement that also expires at the end of the year, they could reduce releases down to as little as 6 million acre-feet. The Bureau of Reclamation is also holding back about 600,000 acre-feet in Lake Powell through April, which will be released later in the year.

The last time Lake Powell was projected to drop below system-critical thresholds after the 2021 spring runoff, Reclamation conducted emergency releases from upstream reservoirs. The chance that the bureau will again release additional water from those federally controlled reservoirs โ€” Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navajo โ€” to boost Powell in the coming months is โ€œabout 100%,โ€ according to Colorado River expert and author Eric Kuhn.

โ€œJust how much is going to be up in the air, but right now, it looks like they need a million to a million-and-a-half acre-feet based on the current projections,โ€ Kuhn said. 

John Fleck, an author, writer and University of New Mexico professor, was the co-author with Castle on the 2021 paper, titled โ€œGreen Light for Adaptive Policies on the Colorado River.โ€ He said that in previous negotiations, state representatives not only had a sense of responsibility to protect water for their own communities, but were also looking out for the health of the entire interconnected basin. 

โ€œWhat we have seen in the last few years is a shift to a leadership that is made up of people who are solely looking out for the interests of their own community,โ€ Fleck said.

Experts say the Colorado River needs a new and different management plan that responds to dwindling flows, rebuilds reservoir storage and creates a resilient system in the face of climate change. The current leadership is failing to provide that, Fleck said. The solution is a shift in mindset for water managers to start playing not for the Upper Basin or Lower Basin, but for Team Colorado River Basin, he said.

โ€œThereโ€™s a moral question involving the obligations we have to one another in shared river basins,โ€ Fleck said. โ€œI would not be at all happy to win the litigation and see the Central Arizona Project shut down. I would see that as a failure even though my communityโ€™s water supply might be protected.โ€

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Compromise is so terribly, terribly hard: Give #ColoradoRiver negotiators room, said Jim Lochhead, former CEO of #Denver Water. But now, itโ€™s in the hands of the feds — Allen Best (BigPivots.com) #COriver #aridification

Glen Canyon downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

February 17, 2026

Sitting in the audience at the Colorado Water Congress in January, I was reminded of the days, weeks and months after 9/11. The impulse โ€“โ€“ fueled by rage, was to punch back โ€” at somebody, somewhere. The result, as we saw in Afghanistan after 20 years and three presidents, was far from satisfying. Osama bin Laden died, but the Taliban prevailed.

At the conference, a new state legislator from the Western Slope was full of righteous indignation about the Colorado River dispute.  Colorado and other upper basin states were right, and those in the lower basin were wrong. We will prevail in court, he insisted. That would be the Supreme Court, where all disputes among states must go. And Colorado, legislators had been told, is preparing for just that possibility.

Much is at stake here. Itโ€™s not just ranches on the Western Slope but nearly all the water rights allocated since 1922. Roughly half of water for Front Range cities comes from the Colorado River headwaters and for towns on the eastern plains as far east as Fort Morgan. The mountains towns at the Colorado River headwaters, most of their water rights are post-1922. The list goes on and one.

No wonder Colorado has its fur up.

Speaking later in the morning, Jim Lochhead, a figure prominent in Colorado water affairs since the 1970s, did not disagree with Coloradoโ€™s fundamental position.

Colorado insists that Arizona and California, especially, have caused the big reservoirs, Powell and Mead, to decline. The states โ€” together, with Nevada, they constitute the lower basin โ€” have reduced their water use substantially since 2002 โ€” but not in proportion to the declines caused by warming temperatures and declining snowfall. The lower-basin states created the problem of the reservoirs now at perilously low levels. They bear the heaviest burden of refilling reservoirs by simply agreeing to take less water.

Lochhead also warned of inflexibility. โ€œThe upper basin cannot bail out the lower basin,โ€ he said. โ€œBut (negotiators) have to be given room to compromise.โ€

โ€œIf the negotiators are forced to focus only on protecting what each of them thinks is legally theirs on paper, they canโ€™t work on identifying and building the tools and strategies needed to make sure we can get away from crisis management and secure our future,โ€ he said that January morning in Aurora.

Upper-basin states say that because they are at the headwaters, they have nothing equivalent to Powell and Mead upstream to provide certainty. If it rains and snows, there is water. If not, then water users have less or none. Colorado water officials say some with water rights dating to the 1880s have already had to go without.

My kids and their friends built a small terrain park in front of their house near Sloans Lake after the March 2003 St. Patrick’s Day blizzard.

The year 2002 was seminal. Modest snowfall was followed by an early and unusually warm spring. Peak runoff was barely noticeable. In Denver, a city that gets half its water from the Colorado River headwaters, sprinklers were turned off, green grass turned brown. Aurora, also heavily dependent upon Colorado River water, was within a few months of crisis in 2003 when a miracle occurred โ€“โ€“ three feet of snow on St. Patrickโ€™s Day.

Downstream in Arizona and California, far from this drama in the headwaters, life continued with no fear and little change. The upstream reservoirs, Powell and Mead, had water.

We have another dry year, and the Colorado River right now is expected to deliver less than the 3.8 million acre-feet at Lee Ferry, just below Glen Canyon Dam, than it did in 2002. Flows were 17 to 18 million acre-feet in the 1920s, when the Colorado River Compact was created and adopted. The long-term average was less, 14.6 to 15.1 million acre-feet. In this century, it has dipped to 12.1 to 12.5 million acre-feet. Some expect this trend to continue amid the warming and drying now underway in the basin. Might it go below 10 in a few more decades?

The lower basin until relatively recently used 10 to 11 million acre-feet. As for the upper basin, states โ€” Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico, in addition to Colorado โ€”they have used 3.5 to 4.5 million acre-feet. It depends upon whether it snows.

The end of a boat ramp in Antelope Canyon was high above the water of Lake Powell in May 2022, and water levels have dropped more now. Photo/Allen Best

โ€œEveryone knows Lake Powell is now in a dire situation,โ€ said Lochhead in a panel after the state legislators had left. โ€œWe have gone from 86% full to I think around 25% full today. Powell is in danger of being over a million acre-feet below deadpool next year. That should scare all of us.โ€

Deadpool is when the water level in a dam-created reservoir drops so low that water cannot be released and used for drinking, irrigation and power. In the last several years, at least one book, Zak Podmoreโ€™s Life After Dead Pool, has been written about the Colorado River with that threshold in mind. Other books and thousands and thousands of newspaper, magazine and website postings have mentioned it.

The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson

Lochhead warned against hardened positions that put the Colorado River problems in front of the Supreme Court. Colorado has not fared well in water cases there the last 100-plus years.

For several decades, Lochhead was a water attorney for Holland and Hart, working from an office across from the post office in Glenwood Springs. It was a good place to raise a family of skiers, he once told this writer.

During that time on the Western Slope, Lochhead represented Colorado on Colorado River affairs in several capacities. Then, from 2010 until 2023, he was CEO of Denver Water, the stateโ€™s largest water utility. In the last few years, his life has been lower profile. But, as his remarks at the Water Congress demonstrated, he is still paying close attention.

Litigation in the Colorado River Basin, said Lochhead, is a โ€œworst-case scenario, resulting in economic and political disruption and uncertainty no matter the outcome.โ€ This message, he said, would be the same whether given to audiences in Arizona or Colorado.

โ€œThere are tens of millions of dollars of taxpayer dollars that will be spent on litigation over a 10- or 20-year period, and the outcomes will be uncertain. The upper basin has a lot of good arguments, and so does the lower basin.โ€

Colorado appeared before the Supreme Court in 1907. It claimed full use of the Arkansas River. The Supreme Court disagreed.

Delphus Carpenter. Picture courtesy Colorado State University library

In 1922, Colorado lost to Wyoming in a case involving the North Platte River. Colorado has insisted upon prerogatives because it was the source of the water. That defeat caused Coloradoโ€™s lead negotiator, Delph Carpenter, to conclude it must shelve the idea that being at the headwaters would trump the claims of downstream states on the Colorado River. Carpenter became the most important figure in crafting the Colorado River Compact of 1922.

โ€œBut of course, litigation under the compacts continued, and Colorado was ordered to pay some $34 million to Kansas in 2001 and to dry up Bonnie Reservoir and undertake the process of drying up 25,000 acres of farmland in the Republican River Basin,โ€ Lochhead continued.

The headwaters of Whiskey Creek, between Minturn and Avon, in the Eagle River Valley, had plentiful snow in the mid-1990s. Photo/Allen Best

Lochhead described several layers of complexities.

โ€œThis isnโ€™t litigation just between two or three states. This is litigation between four states that have a common obligation under the compact (the Upper Basin) versus three other states requiring coordination on strategy, negotiating remedies and settlement between the states,โ€ he said.

Nor is it simple a matter of the two basins, upper and lower, in conflict. The 30 federally recognized tribes in the Colorado River Basin have their interests, and they are not all the same. They also have rights that in most cases supersede those of the states. Public interest groups can have different interests. And, if the federal government makes the decisions about future uses of the Colorado, each and all may โ€œsue the federal government over any unilateral federal action or decision, and that litigation can take all kinds of different forms.โ€

โ€œOther entities may seek to intervene in the litigation. The United States certainly would, as we have seen in Texas versus New Mexico. But when tribes seek to intervene, if the country of Mexico seeks to intervene โ€” what happens during litigation?โ€

Mexico, under a 1944 compact, is to get 1.5 million acre-feet annually.

Plus, the three other upper-basin states may disagree with Colorado. Colorado uses by far the most water of the four, as a compact among them reached in 1948 specified. Alone, though, it has pushed that limit.

In other words, going to water war sounds vaguely patriotic.  The reality of the courtroom may be less heart-thumping.

Boulder has very good water rights but depends somewhat on imported Colorado River water. Photo/teofilo and Wikimedia Commons

Consider what if Colorado did lose? Hereโ€™s where the story gets grim. The Front Range cities, the ski towns, even farmers in the South Platte and Arkansas valleys to the Nebraska and Kansas borders.

Lochhead described the stakes involved, the gamble of letting the black-robed justices in D.C. decide the fates of the seven base states. โ€œDo we find ways to work together across the basin to address the crisis together?โ€

He asked that question more than two weeks before Valentineโ€™s Day, the deadline set by the Bureau of Reclamation without obvious irony. Without agreement by the seven states about how to share the diminished river, it is now up to the federal government to step in. On Friday, after the states had reported still no break-through, I asked Lochhead by e-mail if his remarks from January were still appropriate. They were, he said.

โ€œIt seems as I write this, that โ€” as for the last two years โ€” the states remain stuck in political talking points and the federal government is not applying necessary pressure. And, in the meantime, Lake Powell is headed toward run-of-the-river operations, which precipitates crises on all kinds of different levels,โ€ he replied. โ€œThis will lead to the federal government having to make decisions that will severely impact both upper and lower basin economies and the environment, not to mention endless, expensive and risky litigation. This all could have been avoided but here we are.โ€

โ€œWow!โ€ said Eric Kuhn, a former general manager of the Colorado River District in Glenwood Springs, in a LinkedIn post over the weekend. โ€œThe secretary (of Interior) needs to step up and make some hard decisions!โ€

Sparking Kuhnโ€™s remarks was a new Bureau of Reclamation report on Friday of probable flows in the next two years. The best of them leaves Powell in bad shape. In fact, the bureauโ€™s โ€œprobableโ€ flows have frequently been too optimistic. The dimmer view, called โ€œprobable minimum,โ€ sees Powell levels dropping below the elevation needed to produce hydropower as early as August. Minimum power pool is above deadpool.

Note the dotted red line. If says that itโ€™s possible that power production at Glen Canyon Dam could end by August.

From a Colorado perspective, lower-basin states have a sense of entitlement that defies common sense. Whether it defies the law is another matter. Kuhn told me years ago that the key provision in the 1922 compact that can be interpreted in two very different ways.

It says: โ€œThe States of the Upper Division will note cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre feet for any period of ten consecutive yearsโ€ฆโ€

Yes, there was a typo in the original compact: โ€œnote,โ€ instead of โ€œnot.โ€

But as to that disagreement: Upper-basin states see this meaning that they have no control over the weather. They did not cause the reduced flows. Hang the weather, says the lower-basin state. The โ€œdo not causeโ€ clause means that if only 7.5 million acre-feet is all that is in the river, it all has to flow downstream.

Typo or not, the lower-basin perspective sees this as a cut-and-dried issue. If Denver must go without transmountain diversions or taps in Winter Park or Vail must go dry, so be it. Not their problem.

JB Hamby, Californiaโ€™s representative on Colorado River affairs, articulated exactly that sentiment on Friday. โ€œThe 1922 Colorado River Compact requires the Upper Basin to deliver an average of 8.25 million acre-feet annually to the Lower Basin and Mexico,โ€ he said in a statement. โ€œThat delivery obligation is fixed in law, even when the river produces less water.โ€

At the January forum, Amy Ostdiek, who heads the legal team for the Colorado Water Conservation Board in interstate and federal matters, laid out the basic numbers Colorado puts front and center: The 1922 compact laid out a split of roughly 7.5 million acre-feet for each, the lower and upper basins, with the upper basin required to allow another one million acre-feet to flow down river to account for evaporation and losses.

โ€œWe have to be honest about what has caused the threat that Lake Powell might not be able to make the releases that the lower-basin states believe they are entitled to. It was directly caused by their overuse of Lake Mead, which drew down Lake Powell to the point it is today,โ€ said Ostdiek.

Again, the upper-basin states insist upon lower-basin states sharing the uncertainty of snow and rain. To rebuild the storages will mean they take less water.

โ€œThis is going to be hard for those who are not accustomed to taking less in dry years, but the benefit of reaching a state-state deal is that if weโ€™re able to do that, it provides an opportunity or a gradual and softer landing โ€” and more likely federal dollars for those who need that support as they adapt to this reality.โ€

The upper basin, though, refuses to budge on the idea that it can develop all 7.5 million acre-feet of water apportioned it by the compact โ€” if the water is there, of course.

In their January remarks, neither Lochhead nor Ostdiek offered thoughts about on-the-ground solutions. Ostdiek pointed to programs in both the upper and lower basin with varying success. In their defense, they only had an hour.

Can the lower-basin negotiators truly misunderstand Coloradoโ€™s position? Ken Neubecker, of Glenwood Springs, formerly of environmental groups, thinks so.

โ€œThey have been accustomed, some would say addicted, to the reliable delivery of stored water for all their needs since Hoover Dam was built and began releasing stored water some 90 years ago,โ€ he wrote in a post on Substack. โ€œOnly until very recently, even in the face of an unrelenting drought, have they had to deal with shortages. For the Upper Basin, shortage is an annual reality.โ€

Arizona Navy photo via California State University

Rod Proffitt, from Pagosa Springs, (and a board member for Big Pivots) points to Arizonaโ€™s history of going to courts to resolve river issues. โ€œThey even sent out the National Guard one timeโ€ (in a dispute with California),โ€ he observed. And now Arizona, more than any other state, has its back to the wall.

Phoenix had native water, but expansive growth, among the fastest in the nation, has been enabled by imported Colorado River water since the 1990s. Photo/Allen Best

Most instructive, at least as understanding Arizona, may be George Packerโ€™s 25,000-word piece, โ€œWhat Will Become of American Civilization,โ€ in the July/August 2024 issue of The Atlantic. During the prior year, Packer had spent several weeks or more, winter and summer, primarily in the Phoenix metropolitan region, to analyze its politics and people.

Most perplexing, he found, was the perfervid belief in population and commercial expansion that defies limitations of a climate where a simple fall onto concrete during summer can produce second-degree burns.

Colorado, of course, has its own love of economic expansion. It is dwarfed by Arizona. The latter grew 824% in population from 1950 to 2016 while Colorado grew 318%.

Water is crucial to these expansions, and Arizona has tried to disregard limits. Packer explicitly uses โ€œwaterโ€ 158 times in his report and implicitly so elsewhere. He started out with a description of the Hohokam Indians and their water infrastructure that can still be seen in Phoenix. He barely mentioned climate change but did use โ€œheatโ€ 32 times. He talks about water for data centers and the suburban sprawl.

โ€œPhoenix makes you keenly aware of human artificeโ€”its ingenuity and its fragility,โ€ he says.

Weโ€™ve seen the ingenuity of water delivery systems in the broader Colorado River Basin, a region that extends from Coloradoโ€™s borders with Nebraska and Kansas to the Pacific Ocean. We now understand the fragility, and it makes us very, very uncomfortable.

Anything that forces change can bring out our worst, but then sometimes it can bring out our best. Can it get any worse on the Colorado River?

And also:

The five alternatives

The Bureau of Reclamation issued five alternatives in its draft environmental impact statement for how it will operate Glen Canyon Dam. The federal government, said Lochhead, can only implement two of them.

The first two, said Lochhead, are deeply flawed: No action and the second would impose shortages on Arizona and Nevada approaching 7 million acre-feet. Both alternatives would almost certainly be challenged in court. Both would quickly result in Powell reaching deadpool with compact litigation and unspecified federal actions in the upper basin to protect Powell.

The three other alternatives contain the essential elements of an agreement among the states, he said, including up to four million acre-feet of shortages in the lower base, but not by priority, and leaving pools in the two big reservoirs for conserved water by both upper and lower basins.

โ€œNot surprising, the alternatives with the highest shortages in the two basins and the greatest flexibility perform the best again potential hydrology that illustrates the magnitude of the problem weโ€™re in, and the actions required by both upper and lower basins to address it,โ€ he said. For any of this to work, he added, โ€œwe need long-term funding to mitigate the impacts and build resilience in both basins.

A brief recent history:

Lochhead also sketched a brief history of agreements during recent decades on the Colorado River. His excerpted comments follow:

This slide shows the combined contents of lakes Powell and Mead for the last 25 years juxtaposed against some of the key events and agreements that have occurred during that 25-year period.

Despite the best efforts of the states, reservoir levels have continued to decline over time. The states, though, have made important agreements and have significantly reduced uses in response to changing conditions on the river. But clearly, much more needs to be done.

Starting in the early 1990s we had 10 years of negotiations that led to Federal Surplus Guidelines in 2001. You can see, at the beginning of this century, the reservoirs were virtually full, and we were arguing about surpluses.

Those guidelines also contained a deadline for California to finalize and implement the Quantification Settlement Agreement among California agencies to define priorities and implement ag-urban transfers necessary to get Californiaโ€™s water use from 5.3 million acre-feet a year down to 4.4 million acre-feet a year. The negotiations were driven by the direct involvement and pressure from Secretary (Bruce) Babbitt and his team at the Department Interior. Thatโ€™s a theme โ€” federal pressure being necessary to agreements of the Basin States over the last 25 years.

The California agencies had to come together and agree on how they were going to reduce their use by 800,000 acre-feet. They couldnโ€™t reach agreement, and so Interior imposed limitations on water use in the Imperial Valley, prompting litigation that was eventually settled in 2003.

Lochhead credited Interior Secretary Gayle Norton and Bennet Raley, the assistant secretary for water, for pushing California to this agreement. Both, incidentally, were Colorado natives, Norton from Denverโ€™s northern suburbs and Raley from southwest Colorado. Upon Raleysโ€™ departure from the Interior in 2004, the Los Angeles Times had this to say:

โ€œRaley may be remembered best as the folksy but firm bureaucrat who finally made good on the federal governmentโ€™s long-standing threat to put California on a water diet. He did it by forcing the state to agree to stop using more than its share of the Colorado River, freeing up water for other Western states.โ€

Despite the arguments about surplus waters in the 1990s, some observers could see troubles ahead of a river overcommitted. Troubles arrived in a big way with the water-poor year of 2002 โ€” a runoff that may turn out better than this yearโ€™s.

Lochhead recalled that the upper-basin states, wanting to maintain storage in Lake Powell, asked the Interior Department โ€” the operator of the dam โ€” to release less than 8.23 million acre-feet from the reservoir. Lower-basin states, primarily Arizona, resisted. Difficult meetings ensued, litigation was threatened, legal war chests were readied โ€” then Norton interceded, issuing a deadline by the end of 2007 for an agreement about lower basin shortage guidelines and operational guidelines for releases of water from Powell and Mead.

The states met that deadline โ€” unlike those of the last year โ€” and the guidelines helped. But, said Lochhead, they have proven, over time, to be inadequate. It seemed like every year we were one foot over or under, those triggers that caused distrust and accusations between the upper and lower basins of gaming the system.

Meanwhile, the river produced less than anybody had expected. The states agreed to additional interim measures, and they, too, proved inadequate.

In 2019, the states agreed to a drought contingency plan and drought response agreement, more interim measures designed to protect the systemโ€™s major reservoirs from falling to critically low levels. The lower-basin states agreed to plan that added an extra layer of protection. The goal was to maintain a half million acre-feet of water in Lake Mead.

Declines in lower basin

Lochhead showed a chart of water use in the lower basin but with caveats. It did not include the tributaries, including the Gila River โ€”- a conversation unto itself. Nor does it show reservoir evaporations and losses, which add up to about 1.5 million acre-feet annually, what is often called the structural deficit.

The blue line at the top showed a significant reduction in use starting in 2001, then a fairly steady use of about 7.5 million acre-feet until about 2017, when withdrawals begin to drop due to shortages.

Uneven use in upper basin

The next slide showed the variations of use by the upper-basin states. The chart shows ups and downs, which can be attributed to wetter and dryer cycles. Overall, though, water use in the upper-basin states has remained fairly constant. Those uses, he added, do not include reservoir evaporation โ€” because those losses are explicitly included in upper-basin consumptive use.

โ€œPart of the argument, part of the confusion, comes from these different accounting methodologies in the upper and lower basins,โ€ he said.

The upper basin has made a couple of arguments. One is that the upper basin has the right to develop more water, up to 7.5 million acre-feet, but also that hydrology is the limiting factor. Users suffer shortages every year. Iโ€™m not sure you can have both.โ€

Again, hydrology is the limiting factor.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

The #ColoradoRiver Crisis is Here: States fail to reach a deal; #LakePowell Deadpool appears imminent — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org) #COriver #aridification #megadrought

The Bureau of Reclamationโ€™s latest forecast for the Colorado River predicts Lake Powell will โ€œmost probablyโ€ drop below the critical minimum power pool level before the end of this year, jeopardizing Glen Canyon Damโ€™s structural integrity. In the worst-case scenario, it would do so before summerโ€™s end. This could force the feds to operate the dam as a โ€œrun-of-the-riverโ€ operation to preserve the damโ€™s infrastructure and hydropower output, which would significantly diminish downstream flows and threaten Lower Basin water supplies.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

February 16, 2026

Valentines Day wasnโ€™t so lovey-dovey on the Colorado River.

First, the Bureau of Reclamation (BoR) released a grimmer-than-ever spring runoff forecast for the Colorado River and its two big reservoirs. Then the seven Colorado River Basin states announced that they once again had failed to reach an agreement on a plan to bring demand into line with diminishing supplies by the Feb. 14 deadline. While the states have blown by other deadlines since negotiations began in 2022, this time was different in that it triggered the federal government to move forward to impose a post-2026 management plan of its own.

On paper, the states still have until the end of the water year, or Oct. 1, to come up with a deal or to implement an alternate plan. But that may be too little too late to keep Lake Powellโ€™s surface level from dropping below minimum power pool โ€” otherwise known as de facto dead pool โ€” later this year. While the negotiations are over the Colorado River, or rather the water in the river, in many ways they pivot around the need to keep Lake Powellโ€™s surface level above 3,500 feet in elevation. That can only be done by releasing less water out of Glen Canyon Dam, or increasing flows into the reservoir, or a bit of both.

The sticking point in the negotiations hinges upon whether the Upper Basin states will take mandatory and verifiable cuts in water use. The Lower Basin states have already taken cuts, and have agreed to take more, but only if the Upper Basin does the same.

Theย Upper Basinย (aka the Headwaters states) points out that while the Lower Basin has maxed out and even exceeded its Colorado River Compact allocation of 7.5 million acre-feet per year, the Upper Basin hasnโ€™t even come close to using all of the water itโ€™s entitled to. Furthermore, Upper Basin water users, especially those with more junior water rights, have grappled with drastic reductions during dry years because the Upper Basin lacks large reservoirs for storing water, meaning their water use is dictated in large part by the riversโ€™ flows. In 2021, for example, many southwestern Colorado farms had their ditchesย cut off as early as June, forcing them to sit the season out.

The Lower Basin states long used their entire 7.5 MAF allocation and then some, while the Upper Basin states use only about 4 MAF per year. In recent years, Arizona and California have cut consumptive use. Source: Bureau of Reclamation.

Itโ€™s also far simpler logistically to reduce consumption in the Lower Basin, where huge water users are served by a handful ofย very large diversions, such as the Central Arizona Project canal (which carries water to Phoenix and Tucson), the All-American Canal (serving the Imperial Irrigation District โ€” the largest single water user on the entire river), and the California Aqueduct (serving Los Angeles and other cities), all of which are fed by Lake Mead and other reservoirs. Dialing back those three diversions alone could achieve the necessary water use reduction. The Upper Basin, on the other hand, pulls water from the river and its tributaries via hundreds of much smaller diversions; achieving meaningful cuts would require shutting off thousands of irrigation ditches to thousands of small water users under dubious authority. (ed. emphasis mine]

Also, proposals to divert and consume more of the Colorado Riverโ€™s water โ€” such as the Lake Powell pipeline โ€” remain on the table, albeit tenuously. If that project were to be realized, which is a big if these days, it would further drain Lake Powell and result in even less water flowing down to the Lower Basin.

The Imperial Irrigation District is the largest single water user on the Colorado River by far. Most of that water goes to irrigating agriculture, including a fair amount of alfalfa and other forage crops. Las Vegas uses about one-tenth the amount of water as the IID. Source: Bureau of Reclamation.

Environmental groups tend to side with the Lower Basin on this issue. If the Upper Basin is forced to pull less water from the river, it would leave more water for the river, riparian ecosystems along the river, and aquatic critters. The Upper Basinโ€™s proposal to release a percentage of the riverโ€™s โ€œnatural flowโ€ from Glen Canyon Dam wouldย leave less water in the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon, possibly imperiling endangered fish and rafting.

Meanwhile, the statesโ€™ lack of consensus pushes Glen Canyon Dam closer to the brink of deadpool.

The BoRโ€™sย โ€œPost-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Meadโ€ย offers five alternative scenarios for how to run the river. While it doesnโ€™t give a โ€œpreferredโ€ alternative, officials have indicated that without all of the statesโ€™ approval or congressional action, they are only authorized to go with the Basic Coordination Alternative. That would include a minimum annual release of 7.0 million acre-feet from Glen Canyon Dam, with the largest mandatory cuts being borne by Arizona. But according to the BoRโ€™s latest 24 month projection, that release level would lead to Lake Powellโ€™s surface level dropping below minimum power pool by the end of this year, which is aย really big problem.

The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson

Back in 2022, as climate change continued to diminish the Colorado Riverโ€™s flows and Lake Powell shrunk to alarmingly low levels, the damโ€™s operators were faced with the prospect of having to shut down the penstocks, or water intakes for the hydroelectric turbines, and only release water from the river outlets lower on the dam. Not only would this zero out electricity production from the dam, along with nixing up to $200 million in revenue from selling that power, it might also compromise the dam itself. โ€œGlen Canyon Dam was not envisioned to operate solely through the outworks for an extended period of time,โ€ wrote Tanya Trujillo, then-Interior Department assistant secretary for water and science, in 2022, โ€œand operating at this low lake level increases risks to water delivery and potential adverse impacts to downstream resources and infrastructure. โ€ฆ Glen Canyon Dam facilities face unprecedented operational reliability challenges.โ€

In March 2024, a BoR technical decision memorandum verified and clarified those risks, and recommended that dam operators โ€œnot rely on the river outlet works as the sole means for releasing water from Glen Canyon Dam.โ€

The only way to do that is to keep the water level above 3,490 feet in elevation, which could mean shifting Glen Canyon Dam to aย run of the river operationย โ€” where releases equal Lake Powell inflows minus evaporation and seepage โ€” as soon as this fall. That, most likely, will lead to annual releases far below 7 million acre-feet, which will then lead to Lake Meadโ€™s level being drawn down considerably as the Lower Basin states rely on existing storage to meet their needs, thereby threatening Lower Basin supplies. Such a scenario is clearly not sustainable, would put the Upper Basin states in violation of the Colorado River Compact1, and would almost certainly lead to litigation.

An irony here is that Glen Canyon Damโ€™s primary purpose is to allow the Upper Basin to store water during wet years and release it during dry years, enabling it to meet its Compact obligations. Hydropower, silt control, and recreation were secondary purposes. Now the need to preserve the dam could cause the Upper Basin to run afoul of the Compact. Aridification is rendering the dam obsolete, at least as a water storage savings account. Meanwhile, low levels are diminishing hydropower and recreation. It seems that soon, the damโ€™s main purpose will be to prevent Lake Mead from filling up with silt. [ed. emphasis mine]

Mother Nature, or Mother Megadrought, if you prefer, has left few options for moving forward. The states still could come to an agreement, but itโ€™s difficult to see how, given the long-running stalemate so far. The feds could reengineer Glen Canyon Dam to allow for sustained, low-water releases. That would only be a temporary fix, however, unless climatic trends reverse themselves and the West suddenly becomes much wetter and cooler. Somehow, that doesnโ€™t seem too likely.

๐Ÿฅต Aridification Watch ๐Ÿซ


Is all of this Colorado River talk a bit confusing? Do you find yourself lost in the water-wonk weeds? Yeah, me too.ย Thatโ€™s why I put together theย Land Deskโ€™sย Colorado River glossary and primer. Itโ€™s not behind the paywall yet, so even you free-riders can take a look for the next few days. Itโ€™s worth looking at even if you already received the email edition last month, because it is now updated with new terms and more graphics (it didnโ€™t all fit in the email version). Iโ€™ll keep updating it, too, as new questions about what it all means come up. And if youโ€™re not already, you should consider becoming a paid subscriber and break down the archive paywall, allowing you to read the whole list of analysis, commentary, and data dumps Iโ€™ve done on the Colorado River over the last five years.

A Colorado River glossary and primer — Jonathan P. Thompson


1 The Upper Basin and Lower Basin generally disagree on how to interpret the Colorado River Compactโ€™s provision dictating that the Upper Basin โ€œnot cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75 million acre-feetโ€ for any 10-year period. The Upper Basin sees it as a โ€œnon-depletion obligation,โ€ meaning they canโ€™t exceed their 7.5 MAF/year allocation if it causes the Lee Ferry flow to fall below a 7.5 MAF/year average. The Lower Basin believes itโ€™s a โ€œdelivery obligation,โ€ and that the Upper Basin must deliver 7.5 MAF/year no matter what. Which interpretation is correct determines whether run-of-the-river would violate the Compact or not.

The Colorado River Basin spans seven U.S. states and part of Mexico. Lake Powell, upstream from the Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, are the two principal reservoirs in the Colorado River water-supply system. (Bureau of Reclamation)

#ColoradoRiver states fail to meet another federal deadline for a deal as disastrous reservoir levels loom: #LakePowell could fall beneath level needed for hydropower as soon as July, new projections show — The #Denver Post #COriver #aridification

The Government Highline Canal, near Grand Junction, delivers water from the Colorado River, and is managed by the Grand Valley Water Users Association. Prompted by concerns about outside investors speculating on Grand Valley water, the state convened a work group to study the issue. CREDIT: BRENT GARDNER-SMITH/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (Elise Schmelzer). Here’s an excerpt:

February 17, 2026

Negotiators from the seven states along the Colorado River blew pastย yet another federal deadlineย over the weekend without reaching a compromise on how to share its water โ€” even as this winterโ€™sย dismal snowpackย could spell immediate disaster for the river system.

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map February 18, 2026.

Years-long discussions about how to split the riverโ€™s shrinking water supply, which is relied upon by 40 million people, remained deadlocked as the Saturday deadline for a final deal came and went. It was a deadline set by the U.S. Department of the Interior. The seven basin states are split into two factions that have not agreed on how to divvy up cuts to water supplies in dry years. The Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada lie downstream of Lakes Powell and Mead and rely on releases from those reservoirs for water. The Upper Basin states โ€” Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico โ€” are upstream of the reservoirs and primarily depend on mountain snowpack for their water supplies. Leaders from each basin pointed fingers at the other as the deadline passed. Lower Basin negotiators have repeatedly said that Upper Basin states must โ€œshare the painโ€ and take mandatory cuts in dry years, which have become increasingly common in recent decades. But the Upper Basin states say their water users already take cuts every year because their supplies depend on the amount of water available and are not propped up by supplies in Lakes Powell and Mead. Repeated overuse in the Lower Basin has drained the two reservoirs, theyโ€™ve argued.

โ€œWeโ€™re being asked to solve a problem we didnโ€™t create with water we donโ€™t have,โ€ Coloradoโ€™s negotiator, Becky Mitchell, said in a statement Friday. โ€œThe Upper Divisionโ€™s approach is aligned with hydrologic reality and weโ€™re ready to move forward.โ€

The Bureau of Reclamationโ€™s latest forecast for the Colorado River predicts Lake Powell will โ€œmost probablyโ€ drop below the critical minimum power pool level before the end of this year, jeopardizing Glen Canyon Damโ€™s structural integrity. In the worst-case scenario, it would do so before summerโ€™s end. This could force the feds to operate the dam as a โ€œrun-of-the-riverโ€ operation to preserve the damโ€™s infrastructure and hydropower output, which would significantly diminish downstream flows and threaten Lower Basin water supplies.

As political leaders unleashed a series of pointed statements Friday, the Bureau of Reclamationย released new projectionsย that show one of the river systemโ€™s major reservoirs could be in peril as soon as this summer. The bureauโ€™s new projections show that, if drought conditions remain dire, Lake Powell could fall so low by the end of July that water would no longer flow through Glen Canyon Damโ€™s hydropower system โ€”ย a level called โ€œdead pool.โ€ย Even if snow conditions improve, the reservoir could still reach dead pool in November โ€” a scenario the bureau dubbed its most probable outcome. Theย Colorado River District, an agency created by the Colorado legislature thatโ€™s based in Glenwood Springs and advocates for Western Slope water needs, said it was disappointing that Lower Basin negotiators walked away from discussions on the day the projections were released.

โ€œWith Lake Powell now quickly approaching dead pool, that decision reflects a continued disconnect from hydrologic reality and a clear refusal to confront the core problem: longstanding Lower Basin overuse,โ€ the district said Monday in a statement.

Snowpack across the mountains that feed the Colorado River remained dismal in early February. Above Lake Powell, snowpack on Feb. 1 sat at 47% of the median recorded for that time of year between 1991 and 2020. The water year โ€” which began Oct. 1 โ€” has so far featured record-setting warmth and limited precipitation,ย according to the National Weather Serviceโ€™sColorado Basin River Forecast Center. That could translate to water supplies at 38% of normal, according to the center. Current projections show inflow into Lake Powell will total a meager 2.4 million acre-feet โ€” far less than the 7.5 million acre-feet allocated to the Lower Basin in theย 1922 Colorado River Compact.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Interior Department moves forward on guidelines for #ColoradoRiver absent full state consensus — USBR #COriver #aridification

Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall

Click the link to read the release on the Reclamation website:

February 14, 2026

The Department of the Interior is moving forward with the Post-2026 NEPA process to finalize operating guidelines for Colorado River reservoirs by Oct. 1, 2026. While the seven Basin States have not reached full consensus on an operating framework, the Department cannot delay action. Meeting this deadline is essential to ensure certainty and stability for the Colorado River system beyond 2026.

โ€œNegotiation efforts have been productive; we have listened to every stateโ€™s perspective and have narrowed the discussion by identifying key elements and issues necessary for an agreement. We believe that a fair compromise with shared responsibility remains within reach,โ€ said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. โ€œI want to thank the governors of the seven Basin States for their constructive engagement and commitment to collaboration. We remain dedicated to working with them and their representatives to identify shared solutions and reduce litigation risk. Additionally, we will continue consultations with Tribal Nations and coordinate with Mexico to ensure we are prepared for Water Year 2027.โ€

Prolonged drought conditions over the past 25 years and the most recent forecast showing inflow to Lake Powell declining by 1.5 million acre-feet since January underscore the ongoing challenges. The inflow reduction could result in Lake Powell dropping to an extremely low level, threatening water delivery and power generation.

The Colorado River is managed and operated under compacts, federal laws, court decisions and decrees, contracts and guidelines known collectively as the โ€œLaw of the River.โ€ This apportions the water and regulates the use and management of the river among the seven Basin States โ€“ Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming โ€“ and Mexico. The Colorado River Compact is the cornerstone of the โ€œLaw of the River.โ€ The 1944 Treaty with Mexico governs the sharing of the Colorado River between the two nations. 

The Colorado River is a vital resource as it provides economic stability and enhances the quality of life across the basin. The river:

  • provides water to approximately 40 million people for municipal use.ย 
  • supports the generation of hydroelectric energy, producing more than 8 billion kilowatt-hours annually powering the needs of approximately 700,000 homes.
  • sustains 5.5 million acres of farmland and agricultural communities where a significant share of the fruit and vegetables consumed in the United States are grown.ย 
  • serves as a vital resource for 30 Tribal Nations and two Mexican states.
  • supports seven National Wildlife Refuges, four National Recreation Areas, and 11 National Parks.ย 

The Post-2026 Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead is available for public review, and comments are being accepted until March 2, 2026. Reclamation has hosted two public meetings and is consulting with Basin tribes to discuss the draft EIS. The Draft Environmental Impact Statement was prepared to evaluate the impacts of a range of operational alternatives to inform the Secretaryโ€™s decision on operations beginning on Oct. 1, 2026. 

โ€œThrough collaboration among the Department and Reclamation, states, Tribal Nations, Mexico and other key partners, we can create more opportunities for innovation and develop stronger tools to address drought and growing water demands,โ€ said Assistant Secretary – Water and Science Andrea Travnicek. โ€œWorking together ensures that we combine expertise and resources to build solutions that benefit everyone and secure the future of the Colorado River.โ€

To learn more about this initiative, please visit the Colorado River Post-2026 website.

Colorado River Post 2026 Website

Pitkin County looks to boost #RoaringForkRiver streamflows with water purchase: Deal for water used on Front Range has $6.5 million price tag — Heather Sackett (AspenJournalism.org)

A nearby stream gauge reported that the Roaring Fork River, shown here at Rio Grande Park in Aspen, was flowing at about 9 cfs when this photo was taken in August 2021. Pitkin County plans to buy shares of Twin Lakes water to boost flows in the Roaring Fork. CREDIT: CURTIS WACKERLE/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

January 23, 2026

Pitkin County is making a historic deal to buy water currently used on the Front Range and put it back into the Roaring Fork. 

The county plans to buy 60 shares of water from Twin Lakes Reservoir and Canal Co. and 34 shares from Fountain Mutual Ditch Co. For $6.5 million, Pitkin County will acquire about 71 acre-feet, although only 45 of those acre-feet represent Western Slope water that is currently diverted to the Front Range. 

Pitkin County Commissioner Francie Jacober made the announcement at Wednesdayโ€™s board meeting of the Colorado River Water Conservation District. 

โ€œThis is obviously going to help with the flows in the upper Roaring Fork,โ€ Jacober said at the meeting. โ€œItโ€™s really exciting.โ€ 

The money for the purchase will ultimately come from the Pitkin County Healthy Rivers fund, which is supported by a 0.1% countywide sales tax. However, a portion of the funds for the purchase will initially come from the general fund, and the county will issue bonds before the end of the year that will be repaid using Healthy Rivers revenues. 

According to a purchase and sale agreement related to the transaction that was posted online Friday, the Twin Lakes shares are being sold by Castle Concrete Co., while the Fountain shares are owned by Riverbend Industries, which is Castle Concreteโ€™s parent company. Historically, the water involved has been used in the operation of a gravel pit and for gravel processing. 

A memo outlining the deal noted that in order to purchase the Twin Lakes shares, the seller also required the county to buy the Fountain shares, which are estimated to yield about 26 acre-feet per year, but that water is not decreed for use on the west side of the Continental Divide.

โ€œWe are exploring options for disposing of these shares, either by trading for additional Twin Lakes shares or through sale, thereby offsetting a portion of the purchase price for the Twin Lakes shares,โ€ the memo says.

Jacober told Aspen Journalism that the county worked with brokers West Water Research on the deal, which is set to close on April 2. Representatives from the company declined to comment on the pending transaction. 

The Healthy Rivers board approved the expenditure in a 6-1 vote Jan. 15, and the Board of County Commissioners are set to consider the deal at the Jan. 28 regular meeting.

โ€œI think the [Healthy Rivers] board is moved by the fact that water is really scarce in Colorado and there are not that many opportunities to own and control the timing of water, and thatโ€™s what we are excited about here,โ€ said Healthy Rivers chair Kirstin Neff. 

Pitkin County Deputy Attorney Anne Marie McPhee said the county heard that the shares were going to become available before they officially hit the market and officials approached the seller with an offer. 

โ€œThatโ€™s how we were able to get the shares,โ€ McPhee said. โ€œBecause itโ€™s very rare for these type of shares to come on the open market and usually the municipalities on the eastern slope are trying to get them as quickly as they can.โ€

Grizzly Reservoir is part of Twin Lakesโ€™ transmountain diversion system at the headwaters of the Roaring Fork River. Pitkin County plans to buy shares of water from Twin Lakes that are currently used on the Front Range, and put it back into the Roaring Fork River.ย CREDIT:ย HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Twin Lakes system

The Twin Lakes system is a complex and highly engineered arrangement of reservoirs, tunnels and canals that takes water from the headwaters of the Roaring Fork near Independence Pass and delivers it to Front Range cities in what is known as a transmountain diversion. Across the stateโ€™s headwaters, transmountain diversions take about 500,000 acre-feet per year from the Colorado River basin to the Front Range. 

Four municipalities own 95% of the shares of Twin Lakes water: Colorado Springs Utilities owns 55%; the Board of Water Works of Pueblo has 23%; Pueblo West Metropolitan District owns 12%; and the city of Aurora has 5%.

Twin Lakes collection system

The project is able to divert up to 46,000 acre-feet annually, or nearly 40% of the flows in the Roaring Fork headwaters, which can leave the Roaring Fork through Aspen depleted. Pitkin Countyโ€™s purchase will return a small amount of that water to the Roaring Fork. 

Pitkin County has long had a goal of boosting flows in the Roaring Fork, securing a recreational in-channel diversion water right for a park in Basalt and enacting exchange deals and other agreements with Front Range water providers that keep more water flowing west.

Twin Lakes President Alan Ward said the company is not directly involved in transactions between buyers and sellers of water shares. Twin Lakes must simply approve the transfer of certificates between the two. 

County officials said they plan to release the water down the Roaring Fork during the irrigation season when flows are low, but not when the Cameo call is on, which already results in additional water in the Roaring Fork. 

When irrigators in the Grand Valley place the Cameo call, which happens most summers, those with upstream junior water rights, such as Twin Lakes, have to stop diverting so that irrigators can get their share. When Twin Lakes shuts off, it boosts flows in the Roaring Fork. 

McPhee said that although the deal is not cheap, it is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

โ€œYou donโ€™t get these opportunities to put physical water in the river anymore, particularly up at the headwaters,โ€ she said. โ€œSo we are excited about this.โ€

Aspen Journalism is supported by a grant from the Pitkin County Healthy Community Fund.

Map of the Roaring Fork River drainage basin in western Colorado, USA. Made using USGS data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=69290878

#ColoradoRiver talks: States are still at odds but working toward a 5-year plan: Time is running short, with less than a month to submit a plan to the federal government — Annie Knox (UtahNewsDispatch.com) #COriver #aridification

The so-called โ€œbathtub ringโ€, a deposit of pale minerals left behind where reservoir water levels once reached, is shown on the edge of Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025. (Photo by Spenser Heaps for Utah News Dispatch)

Click the link to read the article on the Utah News Dispatch website (Annie Knox):

January 30, 2026

With just weeks to decide how to share the Colorado Riverโ€™s shrinking water supply, negotiators from seven states hunkered down in a Salt Lake City conference room.ย 

Outside was busy traffic on State Street and South Temple. Inside was gridlock that eased up for a time, only to return, Utahโ€™s chief negotiator, Gene Shawcroft said Tuesday of last weekโ€™s meetings.

The states moved forward on a deal for two-and-a-half days, then went back by almost as far as theyโ€™d come, Shawcroft said. 

โ€œI would just tell you that four days is too long. We got tired of each other,โ€ he said. 

Shawcroft reiterated Tuesday what he and his counterparts from the other Colorado River states have said in recent months: They donโ€™t have a deal, but they do have a commitment to keep talking and meet their upcoming February deadline. 

The earlier goal was to reach a 20-year deal, but Shawcroft told Utah News Dispatch the states are now working on an agreement for a shorter time frame. 

โ€œI think itโ€™ll be fairly simple, but I think itโ€™ll allow us to operate for the next five years,โ€ Shawcroft said.  

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

The river provides water to 40 million people across the U.S. and Mexico, contributing 27% of Utahโ€™s water supply. It is shrinking because ofย drought, [ed. and aridification]overuse and hotter temperatures tied to climate change.

Time for negotiators is also drying up as a Feb. 14 deadline set by the federal government approaches. The current agreement runs through late 2026.

The four Upper Basin states โ€” Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming โ€” are at odds with the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California.

The upstream states donโ€™t want to make mandatory cuts in dry years, saying they typically use much less than theyโ€™re allocated. The downstream states say all seven need to absorb cuts in difficult years.

Conservation groups have criticized the states for not reaching a deal yet, saying โ€œescalating risksโ€ โ€” including declining storage in lakes Powell and Mead โ€” are piling up every month they fail to agree on a plan. 

Lake Powell and the Wahweap Marina are pictured near Page, Arizona on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025. (Photo by Spenser Heaps for Utah News Dispatch)

The debate centers in part on upstream reservoirs like Flaming Gorge on the Utah-Wyoming border and whether theyโ€™ll be managed under the new plan. 

โ€œLower Basin believes those reservoirs ought to be used at the beck and call of the lower basin to reduce their reductions,โ€ Shawcroft said at the meeting. โ€œObviously, we think differently.โ€ 

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, for her part, has criticized the upstream statesโ€™ โ€œextreme negotiating posture,โ€ saying they refuse to participate in any sharing in managing water shortages. 

West Drought Monitor map January 13, 2026.

Demand for water is outpacing the riverโ€™s supply, and extended dry periods arenโ€™t helping. At the meeting, board members viewed a map covered in yellow, orange and red, noting the entire Colorado River watershed is experiencing some level of drought. 

Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that oversees water in the West,released five options for a framework on managing the riverโ€™s biggest reservoirs, Lake Mead in Nevada and Lake Powell on the Utah-Arizona line.

Amy Haas, executive director of the Colorado River Authority of Utah, said she and her colleagues were still reviewing the 1,600-page document but one thing is clear.  

โ€œNone of the five can provide what for Utah is really the central consideration for the deal, and that is a waiver of compact litigation,โ€ Haas said. 

States can sacrifice more than just time and money in lawsuits over water use. In Texas, similar litigationgave the federal government more leverage in negotiations. 

One of the Bureau of Reclamationโ€™s plans would have Nevada, Arizona and California face potential water shortages. It could go into effect next year if the seven states donโ€™t reach a deal.  

โ€œThe river and the 40 million people who depend on it cannot wait,โ€ Andrea Travnicek, assistant interior secretary for water and science, said in a Jan. 9 statement announcing the five alternatives. โ€œIn the face of an ongoing severe drought, inaction is not an option.โ€

Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall

The Arkansas Valley Conduit project has about three years of cash left to keep building, despite President Trump’s veto — Jerd Smith (Fresh Water News) #ArkansasRiver #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Arkansas Valley Conduit map via the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District (Chris Woodka) June 2021.

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Jerd Smith):

January 15, 2026

Water officials and Coloradoโ€™s congressional reps are scrambling to find an affordable path forward for communities in the Lower Arkansas Valley who had hoped the federal government would help them lower their costs for a critical clean water pipeline.

President Trump vetoed the bipartisan Finish the Arkansas Valley Conduit Act on New Yearโ€™s Eve, and despite Coloradoโ€™s efforts, Congress failed to override the veto last week.

Construction on the $1.39 billion pipeline began in 2023. Thereโ€™s enough money left from the $500 million appropriated by Congress to continue building for another three to five years, according to Bill Long, president of the board for the Pueblo-based Southeastern Water Conservancy District. The district operates the federal Fryingpan-Arkansas Project and is overseeing pipeline construction for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

That means the pipeline should eventually reach Rocky Ford, a point roughly halfway between its start east of Pueblo Reservoir and its endpoint farther east, near Lamar. โ€œItโ€™s when we get to the second half of the project where it will be challenging to build and repay our portion of the debt,โ€ Long said. โ€œWithout this legislation, there will be a point where we will have to stop.โ€

What comes next isnโ€™t clear yet, though members of Coloradoโ€™s congressional delegation and water officials in the Lower Arkansas Valley said they are evaluating their options for taking another run at the issue in Congress.

โ€œObviously things are up in the air,โ€ Long said.

โ€œSooner rather than later we may be looking at a new piece of legislation, but the question is, would this administration be amenable to a new piece of legislation. If we canโ€™t find something, we may have to wait this administration out,โ€ he said.

Pueblo Dam. Photo courtesy of Colorado Parks and Wildlife

Waiting for clean water in the Lower Arkansas Valley is nothing new.

First envisioned as part of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamationโ€™s Fryingpan-Arkansas Project in 1962, the pipeline languished on paper for decades because of high costs. The 130-mile pipeline serves 39 communities.

The need for clean water in the Lower Arkansas Valley became apparent in the 1950s and earlier, by some accounts, when wells drilled near the Arkansas River were showing a range of toxic elements, including naturally occurring radium and selenium. Both can cause severe health problems, including bone cancer and lung issues if high amounts are consumed.

Without safe drinking water, towns in the region have either had to haul water or install expensive reverse osmosis plants to purify their contaminated well water.

Things changed on the stalled project in 2023, when Congress directed some $500 million toward the pipeline.

The legislation would have gone further, allowing the repayment terms on the loans from the federal government to be extended to 75 years, up from 50 years, and to cut interest rates in half, from 3.046% to 1.523%. The legislation also would have allowed the project to be classified as one of hardship, a move that may have allowed the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to forgive some loan payments if a case for economic hardship could have been made.

The conduit project is also partially funded with grants and loans from state agencies, including the Colorado Water Resources and Power Development Authority.

โ€œThe act was an important step in making this project affordable,โ€ said Keith McLaughlin, executive director of the Colorado Water Resources and Power Development Authority, one of the agencies helping fund the work.

โ€œObviously weโ€™re disappointed,โ€ he said.

Colorado politicos say theyโ€™re still working to push legislation through. The bipartisan act was sponsored by Colorado Republican U.S. Reps. Lauren Boebert and Jeff Hurd in the U.S. House and Democratic U.S. Sens. John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet in the U.S. Senate.

Trumpโ€™s veto of the measure is widely seen as being the result of ongoing conflicts between his administration and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, including a request to pardon former Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters, who is serving a nine-year prison term for orchestrating a data breach of the countyโ€™s elections equipment violating state elections. Polis so far has declined to intervene in that case, although he did describe the sentence as โ€œharsh,โ€ leading some to speculate that he might commute it. In a statement, Polis said he was hopeful that Congress would ultimately succeed in approving some form of aid to help complete the conduit.

Neither Boebert nor Hurd responded to a request for comment. But Hickenlooper said that all the congressional reps continue to work on a new path forward.

โ€œThe people of southeastern Colorado have waited 60 years for clean, safe drinking water. Weโ€™re continuing to work with our partners in the delegation to complete the Arkansas Valley Conduit and deliver on the federal governmentโ€™s promise,โ€ Hickenlooper said via email.

More by Jerd Smith

Bill signing – H.R. 2206 Public Law 87-590, Frying-Pan-Arkansas Project, Colorado. Photo credit: John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum

U.S. House of Representatives refuses to override President Trump’s veto of bill that wouldโ€™ve helped fund the Arkansas Valley Conduit — The #Denver Post #ArkansasRiver

Arkansas Valley Conduit map via the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District (Chris Woodka) June 2021.

Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (Kevin Freking and Nick Coltrainย ). Here’s an excerpt:

January 8, 2026

Rep. Lauren Boebert, who sponsored bill, pushed president in November to release Jeffrey Epstein files

The U.S. House refused Thursday to override President Donald Trumpโ€™sย vetoes of two low-profile billsย โ€” including one that would help pay for a water pipeline in Colorado โ€” as Republicans stuck with the president despite their prior support for the measures. Congress can override a veto with support from two-thirds of the members of the House and the Senate. The threshold is rarely reached. In this case, Republicans opted to avoid a fight in an election year over bills with little national significance, with most GOP members voting to sustain the vetoes. The two vetoes were the first of Trumpโ€™s second term. One bill was designedย to help local communities finance the construction of a pipelineย to provide water to tens of thousands in southeastern Colorado. The other designated a site in Everglades National Park as a part of the Miccosukee Indian Reservation…

On the Colorado bill, 35 Republicans sided with Democrats in voting for an override — with all members of the state’s delegation from both parties supporting an override. On the Florida bill, only 24 Republicans voted for the override. The White House did not issue any veto threats prior to passage of the bills, so Trumpโ€™s scathing comments in his recent veto message came as a surprise to sponsors of the legislation. Ultimately, his vetoes had theย effect of punishingย backers who had opposed the presidentโ€™s positions on other issues. The water pipeline bill came from Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, a longtime Trump ally who broke with the president in November to release files on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The bill to give the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians more control of some of its tribal lands would have benefited one of the groups that sued the administration over an immigration detention center known as โ€œAlligator Alcatraz.โ€

Map of the Arkansas River drainage basin. Created using USGS National Map and NASA SRTM data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=79039596

U.S. Senators John Hickenlooper, and Michael Bennet Slam President Trumpโ€™s Veto of Their Finish the Arkansas Valley Conduit Act #ArkansasRiver #ColoradoRiver

President John F. Kennedy at dedication of the Fryingpan-Arkansas Project.

Click the link to read the release on Senator Hickenlooper’s website:

December 31, 2025

U.S. Senators John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet issued the following statement after President Trump vetoed their bipartisan Finish the Arkansas Valley Conduit Act: 

โ€œNothing says โ€˜Make America Great Againโ€™ like denying 50,000 rural Coloradans access to clean, affordable drinking water. President Trumpโ€™s first veto of his second term blocks a bipartisan bill that both the House and Senate passed unanimously, costs taxpayers nothing, and delivers safe, reliable water to rural communities that overwhelmingly supported him. Trumpโ€™s attacks on Southern Colorado are politics at its worstโ€”putting personal and political grievances ahead of Americans. Southeastern Coloradans were promised the completion of the Arkansas Valley Conduit more than 60 years ago. With this veto, President Trump broke that promise and demonstrated exactly why so many Americans are fed up with Washington. We will keep fighting to make sure rural Coloradans get the clean drinking water they were promised.โ€

Arkansas Valley Conduit map via the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District (Chris Woodka) June 2021.

#Conservation studies findings on #Coloradoโ€™s Western Slope have lessons for water managers: Western Slope water users want Front Range to match cuts — Heather Sackett (AspenJournalism.org) #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Colorado State University researcher Perry Cabot talks to a group about forage crops at the Fruita field station. Cabot studies the effects of irrigation withdrawal and forage crops that use less water. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

December 12, 2025

The findings of recent water-conservation studies on the Western Slope could have implications for lawmakers and water managers as they plan for a future with less water.

Researchers from Colorado State University have found that removing irrigation water from high-elevation grass pastures for an entire season could have long-lasting effects and may not conserve much water compared with lower-elevation crops. Western Slope water users prefer conservation programs that donโ€™t require them to withhold water for the entire irrigation season, and having the Front Range simultaneously reduce its water use may persuade more people to participate. Researchers also found that water users who are resistant to conservation programs donโ€™t feel much individual responsibility to contribute to what is a Colorado River basinwide water shortage. 

โ€œItโ€™s not a simple economic calculus to get somebody to the table and get them to sign a contract for a conservation agreement,โ€ said Seth Mason, a Carbondale-based hydrologist and one of the researchers. โ€œIt involves a lot of nuance. It involves a lot of thinking about tradeoffs.โ€ 

Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall

Over the past 25 years, a historic drought and the effects of climate change have robbed the Colorado River of its flows, meaning there is increasing competition for a dwindling resource. In 2022, water levels in Lake Powell fell to their lowest point ever, prompting federal officials to call on the seven states that share the river for unprecedented levels of water conservation. 

The Upper Basin states (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming) have experimented for the past decade with pilot programs that pay agricultural water users to voluntarily and temporarily cut back by not irrigating some of their fields for a season or part of a season.

The most recent program was the federally funded System Conservation Pilot Program, which ran in the Upper Basin in 2023 and 2024, and saved about 100,000 acre-feet of water at a cost of $45 million. The Upper Basin has been facing mounting pressure to cut back on its use, and although some type of future conservation program seems certain, Upper Basin officials say conservation must be voluntary, not mandatory.

Despite dabbling in these pilot conservation programs, Upper Basin water managers have resisted calls for cuts, saying their water users already suffer shortages in dry years and blaming the plummeting reservoirs on the Lower Basin states (California, Nevada and Arizona). Plus, the Upper Basin has never used its entire allocation of 7.5 million acre-feet a year promised to it under the 1922 Colorado River Compact, while the Lower Basin uses more than its fair share. 

Sketches by Floyd Dominy show the way he’d end the Glen Canyon Dam. From the article “Floyd Dominy built the Glen Canyon Dam, then he sketched its end on a napkin” on the Salt Lake Tribune website

But as climate change continues to fuel shortages, makes a mockery of century-old agreements and pushes Colorado River management into crisis mode, the Upper Basin can no longer avoid scrutiny about how it uses water. 

โ€œWe need a stable system in order to protect rivers,โ€ said Matt Rice, director of the Southwest region at environmental group American Rivers, which helped fund and conduct the research. โ€œ(Upper Basin conservation) is not a silver bullet. But itโ€™s an important contributing factor, itโ€™s politically important and itโ€™s inevitable.โ€

Researchers from Colorado State University used this monitoring station to track water use on fields near Kremmling. Researchers have found that Western Slope water users are more likely to participate in conservation programs if there is a corresponding Front Range match in water use reduction. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Findings

Papers by the researchers outline how water savings on Coloradoโ€™s high-elevation grass pastures โ€” which represent the majority of irrigated acres on the Western Slope โ€” are much less than on lower-elevation fields with other annual crops. Elevation can be thought of as a proxy for temperature; fewer frost-free days means a shorter growing season and less water use by the plants. 

โ€œOur results suggest that to get the equivalent conserved consumptive-use benefit that you might achieve on one acre of cornfield in Delta would require five acres of grass pasture if you were up near Granby, for example,โ€ said Mason, who is a doctoral candidate at CSU. โ€œThis is a pretty important constraint as weโ€™re thinking about what it means to do conservation in different locations across the West Slope.โ€

In addition to the science of water savings, Masonโ€™s research also looked at the social aspects of how water users decide to participate in conservation programs. He surveyed 573 agricultural water users across the Western Slope and found that attitudes toward conservation and tendencies toward risk aversion โ€” not just how much money was offered โ€” played a role in participation. 

Many who said they would not participate had a low sense of individual responsibility to act and a limited sense of agency that they could meaningfully contribute to a basinwide problem.

If you donโ€™t pay attention to the attitudes of water users, you could end up with an overly rosy picture of the likelihood of participation, Mason said.

โ€œIt may do well to think less about how you optimize conservation contracts on price and do more thinking about how you might structure public outreach campaigns to change hearts and minds, how you might shift language as a policymaker,โ€ he said. โ€œA lot of the commentary that we hear around us is that maybe this isnโ€™t our problem, that this is the Lower Basinโ€™s problem. [ed. emphasis mine] The more you hear that, the less likely you are to internalize a notion of responsibility.โ€

Mason also found that a corresponding reduction in Front Range water use may boost participation by Western Slope water users. The fact that Front Range water providers take about 500,000 acre-feet annually from the headwaters of the Colorado River is a sore spot for many on the Western Slope, who feel the growth of Front Range cities has come at their expense. These transmountain diversions can leave Western Slope streams depleted. 

Western Slope water users often describe feeling as if they have a target on their back as the quickest and easiest place to find water savings.

โ€œI think they tend to be appreciative of notions that have some element of burden sharing built into them,โ€ Mason said. โ€œSo they arenโ€™t the only ones being looked at to contribute as part of a solution to a problem.โ€

Perry Cabot, a CSU researcher who studies the effects of irrigation withdrawal and forage crops that use less water, headed up a study on fields near Kremmling to see what happens when they arenโ€™t irrigated for a full season or part of a season. The findings showed that fields where irrigation water was removed for the entire season produced less hay, even several years after full irrigation was resumed. Fields where water was removed for only part of the season had minimal yield loss and faster recovery. 

โ€œIn the full season, you can have a three-year legacy effect, so thatโ€™s where the risk really comes in if youโ€™re a producer participating in these programs,โ€ Cabot said. โ€œFor three years after, youโ€™re not getting paid even though youโ€™ve diminished that yield.โ€

At the CSU research station in Fruita, Cabot is studying a legume called sainfoin, a forage crop and potentially an alternative to grass or alfalfa. He said sainfoin shows promise as a drought-tolerant crop that can be cut early in the season, allowing producers to have their cake and eat it too: They could maintain the income from growing a crop, avoid some of the worst impacts of a full-season fallowing, and still participate in a partial-season conservation program. 

โ€œIโ€™d like to see flexible options that allow us to think about conservation happening on fields that still have green stuff out there,โ€ Cabot said.

This field near Kremmling participated in an early study on the effects of removing irrigation water. Researchers found the effects of full-season fallowing can have lasting impacts. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Part of the solution

The Glenwood Springs-based Colorado River Water Conservation District has been one of the loudest voices weighing in on conservation in recent years, helping to fund Cabotโ€™s and Masonโ€™s studies, as well as conducting its own. The River District, which represents 15 counties on the Western Slope, is not a fan of conservation programs, but it has long accepted their inevitability. It has advocated for local control and strict guidelines around a programโ€™s implementation to avoid negative impacts to rural agricultural communities. 

River District General Manager Andy Mueller said there is still a lot of resistance to a conservation program in Colorado โ€” especially if the saved water is being used downstream to fuel the growth of residential subdivisions, computer-chip factories and data centers in Arizona. In addition to wanting the Front Range to share their pain, Western Slope water users donโ€™t want to make sacrifices for the benefit of the Lower Basin. [ed. emphasis mine]

โ€œThey want to be part of the solution, but they donโ€™t want to suffer so that others can thrive,โ€ Mueller said. โ€œThatโ€™s what I keep hearing over and over again from our producers on the ground: They are willing to step up, but they want everybody to step up with them.โ€

Water experts agree Upper Basin conservation is not a quick solution that will keep the system from crashing. Complicated questions remain about how to make sure the conserved water gets to Lake Powell and how a program would be funded. 

And as recent studies show, the tricky social issues that influence program participation, multiseason impacts to fields when water is removed and the scant water savings from high-elevation pastures mean the state may struggle to contribute a meaningful amount of water to the Colorado River system through a conservation program. 

โ€œIf the dry conditions continue, itโ€™s hard to produce the volumes of water that make a difference in that system,โ€ Mueller said. โ€œBut are we willing to try? Absolutely. It has to be done really carefully.โ€

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

President Trump vetoes bill to fund pipeline to bring clean water to southeast #Colorado: U.S. Representative Boebertโ€™s Epstein vote, Coloradoโ€™s imprisonment of Tina Peters have drawn the presidentโ€™s ire recently — The #Denver Post #ArkansasRiver #ColoradoRiver

Arkansas Valley Conduit map via the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District (Chris Woodka) June 2021.

Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (Nick Coltrain). Here’s an excerpt:

December 31, 2025

House Resolution 131, sponsored by U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert and U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, both of Colorado, sought to jumpstart a project that has languished since 1962. The bill, one of two vetoed by Trump on Tuesday, would extend the repayment period for the project and lower the interest rate. It passed both chambers of Congress by voice vote earlier this year…Trump, who has recently lashed out at Colorado for a slew of grievances, cited the project’s $1.3 billion price tag and said it was supposed to be paid for by local municipalities — not the federal government — in his veto statement…

9Newsย first reportedย the veto. In a statement to the news station, Boebert said, “If this administration wants to make its legacy blocking projects that deliver water to rural Americans, that’s on them.” She also told the network that she hopes “this veto has nothing to do with political retaliation for calling out corruption and demanding accountability. Americans deserve leadership that puts people over politics.”

Boebert, a Republican representing Colorado’s 4th Congressional District and a longtime ally of the president, recently broke with him byย voting to mandate the releaseย of the so-called Epstein files, a trove of documents about the notorious sex criminal with longtime ties to Trump. Trump has alsoย singled out Coloradoย for retribution over the state’s imprisonment of former Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters.

Chris Woodka, senior policy and issues manager at the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District, which is overseeing the project, said his team is working with Colorado’s congressional delegation on next steps.

Map of the Arkansas River drainage basin. Created using USGS National Map and NASA SRTM data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=79039596

The Year in Water 2025: The #ColoradoRiver — Brett Walton (circleofblue.org) #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the Circle of Blue website (Brett Walton):

December 24, 2025

The year is ending with the Colorado River at a critical juncture.

Figure 4. Graph showing active storage in Lake Powell, Lake Mead, and in Powell+Mead between January 1, 2023, and November 30, 2025. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies

The big reservoirs Mead and Powell remain perilously low and the seven states that share the basin have been unable to agree on cuts that would reduce their reliance on the shrinking river.

Reservoir operating rules expire at the end of 2026. If no agreement is reached the federal government could step in, or the states could take their chances in court. Itโ€™s a risky move that no one in principle seems to want. Yet brinkmanship and entrenched positions have stymied compromise.

Native America in the Colorado River Basin. Credit: USBR

The basinโ€™s Indian tribes, which collectively have rights to more than a quarter of its recent average annual flow, are adamant that their interests โ€“ and more broadly, the river itself โ€“ be protected. โ€œAny progress made in the negotiations to date is merely rationing a reduced supply, not actively managing and augmenting it as a shared resource with strategies and tools that can benefit the entire basin,โ€ the leaders of the Gila River Indian Community wrote on November 12.

The Colorado River Indian Tribes, whose riverside reservation includes lands in Arizona and California, voted in November to extend legal personhood to the river under tribal law.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

The #Colorado Water Conservation Board votes yes on Shoshone: The #ColoradoRiver District will retain some control over management of powerful water rights — Heather Sackett (AspenJournalism.org) #COriver #arification

River District General Manager Andy Mueller speaks to the Colorado Water Conservation Board in front of a packed house Wednesday. The board voted unanimously to accept water rights tied to the Shoshone hydropower plant to benefit the environment. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

November 20, 2025

In a historic move Wednesday evening, the state water board voted unanimously to accept water rights tied to the Shoshone hydropower plant, a major step toward securing those flows in perpetuity for the Western Slope.

The Colorado Water Conservation Board said the Shoshone water rights, which are some of the oldest and most powerful on the mainstem of the Colorado River, can be used to benefit the environment. 

โ€œThe Shoshone acquisition makes a lot of sense to me, and Iโ€™m very proud to be a part of the work that everybodyโ€™s put into it,โ€ said Mike Camblin, who represents the Yampa, White and Green river basins on the CWCB. โ€œI hope that our children and our grandchildren look back and realize we made the right decision on this.โ€

The Glenwood Springs-based Colorado River Water Conservation District plans to purchase the Shoshone water rights for $99 million from Xcel Energy, but the district first needed the approval of the CWCB, which is the only entity in the state allowed to hold instream-flow water rights to benefit the environment. Because the water is returned to the river after it runs through the hydroplantโ€™s turbines, downstream cities, irrigators, recreators and the environment all benefit.

River District General Manager Andy Mueller called it a fantastic day in Colorado history. 

โ€œI think that was the right decision for the Colorado River and the right decision for our whole state,โ€ Mueller said. โ€œI think the state for generations to come, centuries in the future will benefit from having that water in the Colorado River.โ€

Importantly, the instream-flow agreement approved by the board says that the Western Slope, along with the CWCB, will retain some control over exercising the rights. The River District and its constituents drew a hard line in the sand regarding this point and said they would walk away from the deal if they had to cede control solely to the CWCB.

Though not totally unprecedented, co-management is a departure from the norm, as the CWCB has never shared management of an instream-flow water right this large or this powerful with another entity. 

In attendance at Wednesdayโ€™s CWCB meeting in Golden were representatives of ditch companies, elected officials and water managers from across the River Districtโ€™s 15-county area. Some of the attendees said during their public comments that if the River District didnโ€™t retain some control over the water rights, they would pull their funding and withdraw their support from the Shoshone campaign. 

Mesa County Commissioner Bobbie Daniel said the joint-management proposal is a safeguard that ensures that Western Slope interests are not pushed aside. Mesa County has committed $1 million toward the purchase of the water rights.

โ€œThe Shoshone call is one of the great stabilizing forces on the river, a heartbeat that has kept our valley farms alive, our communities whole and our economy steady, even in lean years,โ€ Daniel said. โ€œIf a joint management is not adopted, Mesa County will withdraw its support for this acquisition. Itโ€™s not out of anger or politics, but because anything less would fail the people that we serve.โ€

The Shoshone hydropower plant in Glenwood Canyon has some of the oldest and most powerful nonconsumptive water rights on the Colorado River. A broad coalition of Western Slope entities support the River District purchasing the rights. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Blow to the Front Range

The CWCBโ€™s decision was a blow to Front Range water providers, who objected to the River Districtโ€™s having a say over how to manage the water rights, even though they supported the overall goal of protecting flows for the environment. Denver Water, Northern Water, Aurora Water and Colorado Springs Utilities argued that the CWCB has exclusive authority over the rights, according to state statute. 

Critically, because the Shoshone plantโ€™s water rights โ€” one that dates to 1902 for 1,250 cubic feet per second and another that dates to 1929 for 158 cfs โ€” are senior to many other water users, they have the ability to command the flows of the Colorado River and its tributaries upstream all the way to the headwaters. This means that the owners of the rights can โ€œcall outโ€ junior Front Range water providers with younger water rights that take water across the Continental Divide via transmountain diversions and force them to cut back. 

The fact that Front Range water providers take about 500,000 acre-feet annually from the headwaters of the Colorado River is a sore spot for many on the Western Slope, who feel the growth of Front Range cities has come at their expense. These transmountain diversions can leave Western Slope streams depleted. 

The Shoshone call pulls water west much of the time. But the Front Range parties wanted assurances that during extreme droughts or emergency situations, the call would be โ€œrelaxed,โ€ allowing them to take more water to their citiesโ€™ millions of customers. 

Alex Davis, assistant general manager with Aurora Water, said the CWCB should retain the ability to relax the call as a โ€œbackstopโ€ under extremely rare circumstances. 

โ€œIt is asking that in those emergency situations, the board has the ability to step in and say: Weโ€™re going to do what we think is best for the state of Colorado,โ€ Davis said.

The agreement approved by the board lays out a collaborative process to consider a call relaxation, with a stakeholder panel of water managers from both sides of the divide. The specific wording of this agreement was hashed out during Wednesdayโ€™s meeting, with lawyers representing the CWCB and River District conferencing to tweak language and make edits.

Colorado Water Conservation Board member representing the Arkansas River basin Greg Felt, left, talks with River District General Manager Andy Mueller Wednesday after the board voted to accept the Shoshone water rights for instream flow purposes. The move represents a major step toward securing those rights in perpetuity for the Western Slope. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

The CWCB had been set to decide on the Shoshone rights at its meeting in September, but the River District granted an eleventh-hour 60-day extension so they could address issues raised by the board and try to negotiate a consensus with the Front Range parties. 

Despite all the detailed arguments laid out by the parties, thousands of pages of technical and legal documents, and hours of testimony and public comment over the September and November CWCB meetings, the boardโ€™s scope of decisionmaking remained narrow: Should the CWCB accept a perpetual interest in the Shoshone water rights and will these rights preserve the natural environment to a reasonable degree? 

In the end, the board decided yes, and also determined that it did, in fact, have the authority to allow the River District to co-manage the Shoshone water rights alongside it.

โ€œI really think itโ€™s pretty incredible that thereโ€™s no objection to the environmental aspects of this flow and the purpose of this water right for environmental purposes,โ€ said CWCB Director Taylor Hawes, who represents the mainstem of the Colorado River where the Shoshone plant is located. โ€œ(The River District is) donating that water right. It seems like they should have a say. And while I realize this case is unique, I donโ€™t see anything in the statute or the rules that prohibits us from doing this.โ€

But the fight to keep Shoshone flowing west is not over for the River District. The CWCB, River District and the water rightsโ€™ current owner, Xcel, now plan to file a joint application in water court to make the deal official by adding the instream-flow use to the water rights. 

The water court process will decide another contentious issue that is sure to again highlight disagreement between the Western Slope and Front Range as they compete for the stateโ€™s dwindling water resources: precisely how much water is associated with the water rights, a number based on the plantโ€™s past use.

โ€œI also very much understand the concerns of both sides of the divide in not wanting the other side to have a windfall,โ€ Hawes said. โ€œThat has been kind of the heart of all of this. And I hope we can all trust that the water courtโ€™s process will give us a result where we donโ€™t have to worry about that. Everyoneโ€™s concerns will be addressed in that process.โ€

View of Shoshone Hydroelectric Plant construction in Glenwood Canyon (Garfield County) Colorado; shows the Colorado River, the dam, sheds, a footbridge, and the workmen’s camp. Creator: McClure, Louis Charles, 1867-1957. Credit: Denver Public Library Digital Collections

#ColoradoRiver:ย States miss their deadline on a deal, but theyโ€™re still talking, #Utah and the federal government arenโ€™t giving details or a new timeline — Annie Knox (UtahNewsDispatch.com) #COriver #aridification

Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall

Click the link to read the article on the Utah News Dispatch website (Annie Knox):

November 11, 2025

Utah and six other states along the Colorado River blew past their deadline Tuesday to reach a new deal on managing the dwindling river, but negotiations arenโ€™t over.ย 

โ€œWe will continue to engage with our partners across the Basin to develop a framework that protects water users and the system as a whole,โ€ Utah Gov. Spencer Cox said Tuesday afternoon on the social media site X. 

The river contributes 27% of Utahโ€™s water supply, and provides water to 40 million people across the U.S. and Mexico. Drought, overuse and hotter temperatures tied to climate change have all combined to shrink its flow. 

The federal government had said it would step in and make its own plan if states failed to reach broad consensus by Tuesday, but the states agree they donโ€™t want that to happen, Cox said.

โ€œWhile the Basin States did not finalize an agreement today on post-2026 Colorado River operations, our commitment to a state-led path remains,โ€ the governor said. 

The U.S. Department of the Interior did not respond to questions from Utah News Dispatch Tuesday evening about the timeline and whether it would intervene. The current agreement runs through late 2026. 

The federal agency and Utahโ€™sย negotiator Gene Shawcroft issued the same prepared statement, saying the talks yielded โ€œcollective progress.โ€ They did not give any details on sticking points.ย 

The seven states, the Department of the Interior and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which manages water in the West, all โ€œrecognize the serious and ongoing challenges facing the Colorado River,โ€ their statement says. โ€œProlonged drought and low reservoir conditions have placed extraordinary pressure on this critical water resource that supports 40 million people, tribal nations, agriculture, and industry.โ€ 

They said the states and federal agencies share a commitment to ensuring the riverโ€™s long-term sustainability. 

โ€œWhile more work needs to be done, collective progress has been made that warrants continued efforts to define and approve details for a finalized agreement,โ€ the statement says. 

The four Upper Basin states โ€” Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming โ€” and the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California presented competing plans to the federal government last year. 

The Upper Basin states have sought to fend off mandatory cuts in dry years, saying they generally use much less than theyโ€™re allocated. The Lower Basin states have insisted that all seven absorb cuts in dry years. 

In part to prepare for the possibility of mandatory cuts, Utah has been investing in measuring and monitoring water use in recent years. 

In 2023, the Legislature set aside $1 million for a Colorado River measurement infrastructure project and $650,000 in ongoing yearly funding, according to the Utah Division of Water Rights.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0