Today looks to be a repeat:

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Front Range Foothills and Urban Corridor including Metro Denver from 11am thru midnight. #COwx

— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) July 8, 2012

From the Fort Collins Coloradoan (Robert Allen):

People waded through waist-deep water Saturday evening in Wellington, where firefighters worked to pump flooded basements — one of which was filled 8 feet to the top step with brown, murky water…

Highway 34 west of Loveland to Drake was closed at 6 p.m. and still hadn’t re-opened by 10 p.m. as crews worked to clear roads of rock- and mudslides along Big Thompson River. Farther south, Interstate 25 was closed at Dacono in both directions for most of the evening…

There’s a 60 percent chance of storms today, with a risk of flash floods especially in burned and previously-soaked areas. On Monday, the chance of storms is 30 percent. Now that much of the ground is soaked, the risk of flooding increases…

In the 24-hour period between 10 p.m. Friday and Saturday, the rain gauge near Lemay and Mulberry in Fort Collins received 2.6 inches, according to the city’s website at http://www.fcgov.com. Most areas received about an inch.

Here’s a drought-related release from the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District (Diane Johnson):

Drought is intensifying all over Colorado, according to the weekly Drought Monitor. Extreme conditions exist in 71 percent of the state, including Eagle County. This week’s map shows exceptional drought conditions are present in two areas, with the rest of Colorado experiencing severe or extreme conditions.

About 47 percent of the nation’s land area is in various stages of drought, with 8.64 percent of the country in either extreme or exceptional drought.

Local drought conditions reflect this winter’s record low snowpack and continued hot, dry, and windy weather. Flows in local streams are correspondingly low, at 15 to 25 percent of historic averages for this time of year. The Vail Mountain SNOTEL site recorded one-tenth of an inch of precipitation on July 4, the first measurable amount since May 24. If conditions continue to be hot and dry, local streamflows will further decline and may affect the supply of water available to Eagle River Water & Sanitation District.

Should community demand for water outpace the available supply in the public water system, the district will restrict outdoor water usage beyond the current normal regulations, which allow outdoor water use up to three days per week, before 10 a.m. or after 4 p.m. Residents are strongly encouraged to evaluate their outdoor water use and allot water to their highest priorities so the overall community demand for water is reduced.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Gayle Perez):

The record high temperatures combined with a lack of precipitation has created a dire situation for some farmers, particularly in the Arkansas Valley. “If you don’t have water, nothing grows,” said Chuck Hanagan, county executive director of Otero/Crowley Farm Services Agency.

He said the combination of record heat, a lack of rain and a diminishing snowpack has led to dismal conditions for farmers. Hanagan said there are many Eastern Plains farmers who have left their fields fallow this year. “When you drive from Fowler to Kansas, you see more open ground,” he said. “You can see green here or there from those who have a well. They’re holding on a little better.”

From the Summit County Citizens Voice (Bob Berwyn):

In parts of northwest Colorado, drought conditions were upgraded to exceptional, the most severe category of drought, indicating extremely low stream flows, soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Much of the rest of the state is now in the severe drought category, including nearly all of the West Slope, the central mountains including the Continental Divide and big chunk of the eastern plains.

The arrival of monsoon moisture should help at least start nibbling away at drought conditions in patches where heavy rain falls from passing thunderstorms.

Including only at the 48 contiguous states, 55.96 percent of the country’s land area is in moderate drought or worse — also the highest percentage on record in that regard, officials said. The previous highs had been 54.79 percent on Aug. 26, 2003, and 54.63 percent on Sept. 10, 2002. “The recent heat and dryness is catching up with us on a national scale,” said Michael J. Hayes, director of the National Drought Mitigation Center at UNL. “Now, we have a larger section of the country in these lesser categories of drought than we’ve previously experienced in the history of the Drought Monitor.”

From the Ag Journal (Candace Krebs):

The unusually mild spring, coupled with a recent wave of unprecedented summer heat, has sapped the area of moisture. “If the trend continues, we’re on target to set a record for the warmest year — ever,” adds Wayne Shawcroft, a retired CSU irrigation agronomist based at Akron’s Central Great Plains Research Station.

Across the High Plains, dryness and heat are feeding off of each other in a vicious cycle that culminated recently in a long series of triple-digit days, stoking dozens of forest fires along the Front Range and accelerating drought conditions with little relief in sight.

“Historically the hottest weather occurs when it is already dry,” said Colorado State Climatologist Nolan Doesken, based in Fort Collins. “The very existence of the lack of moisture and vegetation is very consistent with seeing temperatures soar.”

Don’t assume the smoke spewing up into the atmosphere from the region’s fires will seed the formation of rain droplets, Doesken adds. Opinions vary on whether particulate matter in the air helps or hurts.
“Back in 2002, it was theorized that the widespread smoke from large fires suppressed thunderstorms and reduced their ability to make heavy rains,” he said. “The heavy smoke in the air probably is affecting conditions a bit, but what that effect is isn’t very clear.”

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

“The recent Waldo Canyon Fire on the Pike National Forest has changed the watersheds within the burned area and increased the potential for flooding and mudflows that could impact several communities adjacent to and downstream from the forest,” the Forest Service said in a press release. When heavy rains fall in a burned area, there are often mudflows, but the effects of the Waldo Canyon fire are being evaluated. The fire started June 23, has burned more than 18,000 acres, destroyed 347 homes and was about 90 percent contained Thursday…

On Thursday evening, the El Paso County Sheriff’s office hosted a meeting with landowners who might be subject to mud flows following the burn. The county is advising residents in affected areas to monitor weather reports closely and to take safety precautions if flooding is imminent.

Click on the thumbnail graphic for the map from the National Weather Service.

From the CWCB Flood Threat Portal:

The highest threat period of the early summer season appears likely to develop over the July 8-11 period. Moist easterly winds will prevail along the Front Range from Fort Collins to Pueblo while monsoon moisture drips across the Continental Divide to provide plenty of fuel for slow moving thunderstorms. The recent burn areas will face a MODERATE TO HIGH flash flooding threat during these three days as storms could produce 1-3 inches of rain in less than two hours. It is way too early to develop any particulars on this evolving threat but the ingredients appear to be coming together.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

“We don’t envision the need for restrictions this year,” said Alan Ward, water resources manager for the Pueblo Board of Water Works. “We will monitor our storage levels and see how the snowpack develops for next year.”[…]

Pueblo West also has plenty of water in storage, but is looking at adapting voluntary conservation measures as part of a new water conservation plan, said Jack Johnston, manager of the metro district…

More than 120,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Pueblo — two thirds of its current contents — is set aside for municipal use. About 55 percent of that is for El Paso County use. Colorado Springs, Aurora, Pueblo and Pueblo West also have water set aside in Turquoise and Twin lakes higher in the watershed…

Right now, the river call is sitting on the Rocky Ford Ditch 1874 right, and without summer monsoons will stay at or senior to that level, since runoff has ended, said Bill Tyner, assistant engineer for Water Division 2.

From 9News.com (Blair Shiff):

As monsoon rains intensify, water managers will be paying more attention to how the fire might impact drinking water. Runoff mixes with debris and sediment in burn areas during monsoons. That mix often hurts the ability of water treatment plants to purify water. As a result, tap water could have a smoky taste – though is typically not harmful.

From The Durango Herald (Dale Rodebaugh):

“The most important thing is to have community awareness and involvement,” city Utilities Director Stephen Salka said Monday in briefing water commissioners about possible drought issues. “It’s important not to use water in a wasteful manner.” Cooperation is preferable to coercion, he said…

It appears residents are getting the message, Salka said. The city population has increased since 2002, the peak of a severe drought that saw the Missionary Ridge Fire spread over more than 72,000 acres, but water consumption is down. In May 2002, residents used 305.6 million gallons of water, compared to 290 million gallons in May 2012. June use in 2002 and this year, was 350.6 million and 350.3 million gallons, respectively.

The flow in the Animas River barely topped 300 cubic feet a second Tuesday. The channel was carrying 481 cfs on June 8, 2002, the day the Missionary Ridge Fire started, but dropped to 172 cfs June 30. The city fills Terminal Reservoir, which holds 74.1 million gallons of water, from the Florida River by gravity flow and from the Animas by pumping.

From the La Junta Tribune Democrat:

Colorado U.S. Senators Michael Bennet and Mark Udall on July 3 announced that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has designated 62 of Colorado’s 64 counties as primary natural disaster areas due to losses caused by drought, excessive heat, and high winds since the beginning of the year. The other two counties have been named contiguous disaster areas.

“The entire state of Colorado has been severely affected by hot and dry conditions that have hampered the production of our agricultural producers,” Bennet said. “The designations from USDA will provide much-needed assistance to farmers to help offset their losses due to drought. Agriculture is a critical part of Colorado’s economy, and these resources will help producers weather a difficult growing season.”

“I am pleased that U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary, Tom Vilsack, has granted Governor Hickenlooper’s request to designate eligible counties in Colorado as disaster areas in response to severe drought conditions across our state,” Udall said. “The losses that face Colorado’s agriculture producers are mounting and now that this declaration has been made, Colorado’s farmers and ranchers will have access to additional resources to get them through these tough times.”

Meanwhile, the feds declared a drought disaster for most of Colorado recently. Here’s the release from Governor Hickenlooper’s office:

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack notified Gov. John Hickenlooper today that 62 of the state’s 64 counties qualify for federal disaster relief because of drought conditions [ed. emphasis mine].

“The Department of Agriculture has reviewed the Loss Assessment Reports and has determined that there were sufficient production losses in 62 counties to warrant a Secretarial disaster designation,” a letter from Vilsack says. “Therefore, I am designating all Colorado counties, except Delta and San Juan counties, as primary disaster areas due to losses caused by drought, excessive heat, and high winds that occurred from Jan. 1, 2012, and continuing.”

Hickenlooper sent a letter last week to Vilsack seeking the drought assistance.

“We are very grateful for Secretary Vilsack’s speedy review of our request,” Hickenlooper said. “This federal disaster declaration will give farmers and ranchers in Weld County and nearly every other part of the state much needed relief.”

Typically, counties must meet certain crop loss criteria to qualify for U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) disaster assistance. Once that crop loss criteria is met, the governor then make a request to the Secretary of Agriculture asking for a disaster designation for that county.

This year, because of severe drought conditions in across the state, the Colorado Department of Agriculture worked with the local USDA Farm Service Agency office in seeking a disaster designation before each county shows the minimum crop loss.

The federal assistance approved today includes Farm Service Agency (FSA) emergency loans. Farmers in eligible counties have eight months from the date of the declaration to apply for emergency loan assistance. FSA will consider each emergency loan application on its own merits, taking into account the extent of production losses, security available and repayment ability.

Local FSA offices can provide farmers with more information.

Click here for the summaries from Tuesday’s webinar. Click on the thumbnail graphic for the precipitation summary.

From the Boulder Daily Camera (Joe Rubino/Erica Meltzer):

Klaus Wolter, a climatologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, said he believes Colorado’s weather is transitioning from a La Niña pattern to an El Niño pattern.

El Niño, the result of unusually warm temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, tends to cause wet weather for the southwestern U.S…

However, fires burning across the state could delay the arrival of the wet weather. In 2002, another dry year in which a La Niña pattern was transitioning to an El Niño pattern, the Hayman Fire and others contributed to rain being delayed until mid-September. “Back in 2002, we had an El Niño developing, and it didn’t deliver,” Wolter said. “The monsoon was trying to work its way up, but we had all these fires and it has all these microphysical effects.

“We have all this haze and all this soot in the air, and it’s harder to get thunderstorms going because there is less heating on the ground, believe it or not,” Wolter said. Wolter said he thinks the Front Range is in a better position now than in 2002. Because the fires are concentrated along the Front Range, the circulating monsoon system is exposed to fire-free areas farther west…

Boulder meteorologist Matt Kelsch warned against getting too excited for a strong monsoon season in Colorado or the wetting effects of an El Niño pattern this early in the year. El Niño’s effects are most often felt in the fall and winter, Kelsch said, and while this week looks promising for moisture, he worries the conditions may not last long.

Happy Fourth of July to y’all.

Click on the thumbnail graphic for a shot of Mrs. Gulch’s vegetable garden taken this morning.

From National Geographic (Tasha Eichenseher):

Wildfires scorch soils and create ash and debris that can clog rivers and reservoirs, increasing the cost of water treatment for years to come.

When trees and underbrush burn, there is less organic material left to absorb moisture when it rains. In addition, many plants release a waxy substance when they are incinerated, creating a water-repellent coating on burn areas that heightens the risk of flash floods and contributes to erosion. Storms flush silt and other debris from the fires into rivers, reservoirs, and ultimately into municipal water treatment facilities, slowing the treatment process.

Western water managers learned a harsh lesson ten years ago when the devastating Hayman Fire ripped through Colorado’s forests, severely impacting the extensive forested watersheds that protect rivers and water sources for more than 75 percent of the state’s residents, according to the U.S. Forest Service. The Hayman Fire—the most destructive in the state’s history, possibly until now—destroyed nearly 140,000 acres and 600 structures in 20 days…

In the wake of that 2002 fire, and the 1996 Buffalo Creek fire, Denver Water, the public agency responsible for serving water to 1.3 million people in the Denver metro area, has spent more than $26 million on fire-related restoration, maintenance, and dredging, according to agency spokeswoman Stacy Chesney…

Jennifer Pitt, Colorado River Project director for the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund, warns that 2012 is a wake-up call for how we have to adjust to climate change and extreme water supply fluctuations, especially in the Colorado River Basin, where flows are at lower-than-average levels. “We may not always like what Mother Nature has in store,” she writes for Water Currents, a National Geographic blog. “But we’re fools if we don’t figure out how to live with it.”

From National Geographic (Jay Famiglietti):

Let’s face facts. We can’t really manage water sustainably now, nor can we predict water availability in the future…It is absolutely essential that we determine how much water we have, as snow, surface water, soil moisture and groundwater; how much water we need, for humans and for the environment; and how these quantities will change with time, as climate and population changes, and as we adapt to a resource-limited future. We need to move forward with core observations and models that can utilize them to answer these questions, to advance prediction and to help prepare for the future.

How can we accomplish this? Since we lack a national water czar, policy or agency in the U. S., much of what I’m writing about here has fallen through the cracks for too long. There’s no one there to take ownership.

Consequently, vision and leadership are sorely needed. We need champions. Our elected officials must embrace this sustainable water challenge through awareness, commitment, and focus.

Research leadership, from our funding agencies through communities of investigators, must also take responsibility for making it happen. Communication of key results and research needs to elected officials and to the general public, though atypical for this group, is becoming increasingly important to heighten awareness

There’s a grand challenge on the table. We must aggressively tackle the frontiers of:

1)Exploration and mapping of Earth’s shallow crustal water environment, including its freshwater bathymetry, soils, hydrogeology, its water quantity and quality and synthesis of available information.

2) Advanced digital water data and information system capabilities for archiving and disseminating these data, with open, easy access to all information. New policies for sharing environmental data across political boundaries are also required.

3)Development of next-generation computer models that readily exploit this new information, as well as capabilities to evolve with rapid advances in computer power and the structure of the internet.

4)Clear pathways to transfer newly developed tools, observations and research results to water managers and practitioners, environmental decision makers, and a plan for communication to the public.

From The Durango Telegraph (Tracy Chamberlin):

In 2002, La Plata County was suffering from exceptional drought. This year the county is under moderate drought. Ten years ago, 78 percent of the state was under extreme drought. Currently, less than 10 percent of Coloradoans are feeling those kinds of conditions.

Also, the Animas River is running around 1,200 cubic feet per second. That’s less than half the average, around 3,000 cfs, but still a far cry from the record lows in 2002 of 500 cfs.

“There’s still some moisture out there,” said Durango Fire and Rescue Chief Dan Noonan. “But with each passing day, the situation is changing.”
The snowmelt came four to six weeks earlier than normal this year, rushing the rapids and depleting the water sources a little early. And the state is trending toward drier and drier conditions.

Three months ago, 40 percent of Colorado was suffering from moderate drought. Last week, it was 68 percent. Now that number has jumped to more than 75 percent.

The northeast part of the state, covering about 10 percent, is under extreme drought conditions. Last week that number was just more than 7 percent. The entire state is considered abnormally dry or worse, and with each passing week it continues to spread.