Click here to read the discussion. Here’s an excerpt:

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transitionto ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.

A strong El Niño continued during December, with well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. All weekly Niño indices decreased slightly from the previous month. The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, while still well above average, weakened due to an upwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave. Significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the tropical Pacific. During the last week, another westerly wind burst occurred in the east-central Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained strongly negative. Also, convection remained strong over the central and east-central tropical Pacific, and suppressed over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño episode.

Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will weaken with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer. The forecasters are in agreement with the model consensus, though the exact timing of the transition is difficult to predict. A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

El Niño has already produced significant global impacts and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday January 21st). The seasonal outlooks for January – March indicate an increased likelihood of above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States. Above-average temperatures are favored in the West and northern half of the country with below-average temperatures favored in the southern Plains and along the Gulf Coast.

US Drought Monitor January 12, 2016.

West Drought Monitor January 12, 2016.

Colorado Drought Monitor January 12, 2016.

Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

Much of the Midwest continued to be 6-9 degrees warmer than normal in the past week. New England was warm, too, with Maine and northern New York as much as 9-12 degrees warmer than usual. Areas in northern Washington, Idaho, western Wyoming and much of California were 3-6 degrees warmer than usual, as were the coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and much of Florida. For areas west of the Missouri River, temperatures were generally cooler than normal, by as much as 9-12 degrees in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Montana and South Dakota. On the wet end of the spectrum, much of southern California, southern Nevada, Arizona, southern Utah, southern Colorado, Kansas, northwest Missouri, southeast Nebraska, western Iowa, southern Florida, eastern Pennsylvania, and Maine recorded more than 200 percent of normal precipitation, with multiple storm events in the West. But the Pacific Northwest, northern Great Plains, south Texas, and the Southeast all had below-normal precipitation for the week…

High Plains and South

Portions of east Texas, east Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and the Texas Panhandle that were in the wettest part of the storm track got more than 200 percent of normal precipitation for the week. Temperatures were generally 3-6 degrees cooler than normal, as a good push of arctic air made it into the region. No changes were made in the High Plains or South on this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor…

West

As a series of storms came ashore along the West Coast and dove into the Southwest, many areas of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, and Colorado received significant amounts of rain and snow. Along with the cooler-than-normal temperatures, this was ideal for snow to accumulate in the higher elevations and for rain to infiltrate into soils. In Arizona, even though some time-scales are showing dry signals, the consensus was that the recent precipitation was enough to start showing improvements. Severe drought disappeared from Arizona, while much of the moderate drought ebbed in the central and northwest part of the state. Abnormally dry conditions shrank over much of central Arizona as well. In southwest Utah, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions receded. Eastern Nevada has had good snow over the last several weeks, and snow water equivalent (SWE) is running 150-200 percent of normal for the water year, so moderate drought was removed over much of eastern Nevada. Continued dryness over much of northern Wyoming and southeast Montana led to a slight expansion of moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions this week. Most snow reports have this area at only 20-40 percent of SWE for this time of year.

In California, even with the rain and snow received over the last several weeks, many areas are still running below normal for precipitation and snow for the current water year. Wells, reservoirs, ground water, and soil moisture are all recovering slowly, which is to be expected after three-plus years of drought. Precipitation in northern California eased some of the exceptional drought. The consensus from California experts is that recovery will be slow, and many more storm events are needed through the rest of winter to really put a dent in the drought…

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5-7 days, an active pattern will bring precipitation to much of the Pacific Northwest and northern California, which could see as much as 8 inches of precipitation. Much of the area from the Mississippi Valley to the east also looks favorable for precipitation, with the greatest amounts along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard. Temperatures will be normal to slightly above normal over the West and East, cooler than normal over the High Plains, and above normal over the Southern Plains.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the best chances for above normal temperatures are over the area west of the Rocky Mountains with the greatest chances over the West Coast. The best chances for below normal temperatures is over the Eastern Seaboard. The best opportunity for above normal precipitation is over much of California and into the Great Basin. Increased chances of above normal precipitation can also be anticipated over much of the Plains and into the Southeast. The greatest odds of below normal precipitation is anticipated over south Texas and the Great Lakes region into northern New England.

From Steamboat Today (Tom Ross):

In its first Colorado Water Supply Outlook Report of the water year that began Oct. 1, 2015, the Denver office of the Natural Resources Conservation Service said statewide snowpack is 118 percent of normal. Colorado Snow Survey Supervisor Brian Domonkos characterized it as the best start to winter this decade and ranked it as the ninth best start since 1982.

“With a sizable chunk of the winter already behind us, this is a good starting point, however more than half of the winter remains,” he said in a written statement, adding that, in a typical year, Colorado has received about two fifths of the seasonal snowpack by the first week in January.

The mountains surrounding Steamboat Springs and the Yampa Valley aren’t leading the pack for Colorado, however. In fact, the Yampa/White Drainage, at 103 percent of median snowpack (water stored in the standing snow on the ground), is the lowest in the state. But at least it’s in plus territory. One year ago, the Yampa/White stood at 98 percent of median Jan. 7 and was poised to drop further during a mild February.

However, Domonkos said during a telephone interview Wednesday that snowfall patterns such as the one that delivered consistent, but modest snow accumulations of one to four inches at a time here during the week after Christmas, can be a significant contributor to overall snowpack.

The Tower site, above 10,000 feet on the Continental Divide north of Steamboat, is one of 13 snow measuring sites that were below 100 percent snowpack. Domonkos also mentioned the Elk and Little Snake watersheds in North Routt as being among the river basins that are below normal but still near the median.

There is an apparent disconnect between snowpack levels measured on the western summit of Rabbit Ears Pass — at 9,400 feet elevation where snowpack is 110 percent of median — and at the Tower site, where it’s just 69 percent of median, having slipped from 76 percent Jan. 1.

There’s more stored water on Buffalo Pass this week, with 14.8 inches, compared to 11.7 inches on Rabbit Ears. But Tower would typically have a little more than 21 inches stored in the snow on this date and hold one of the biggest snowpacks in the state.