From The Durango Herald (Benjamin Mandile):
Southwest Colorado appears to be headed into a dry spell, and even the monsoon may be drier than average, according to the National Weather Service…
The onset of the monsoon, which usually arrives in mid-July, appears to be arriving later than usual, said Chris Sanders, a meteorologist with NWS.
“Typically, we look for a big ridge of high pressure to set up over the center part of the U.S.,” Sanders said. “That’s the most favorable pattern to get moisture to come up into the area. Right now, we’re seeing the exact opposite, where we’re having troughing coming into that area.”
Sanders said troughing can lead to drier air and shuts off the feed of moisture needed to produce afternoon storms in Southwest Colorado.
The pattern has the potential to remain stagnant going into August, but there may be some surges of moisture. It depends on what happens with the high-pressure ridge over the West Coast. Where exactly the ridge sets up will play a role in the possibility of moisture being pulled from the coast into the Intermountain West.
Sanders said it is difficult to determine when the monsoon will arrive, but typically, the monsoon starts during early to mid-July.