Hopes high for a ‘Super’ El Niño — the High Country News

From the High Country News (Sarah Tory):

El Niño is upon us and it’s shaping up to be a big one – so big that scientists have amused themselves coming up with new terms for the coming weather phenomenon. Bill Patzert of NASA coined the term “Godzilla El Niño.” Another meteorologist from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) who loves kung fu compared it to famed martial arts star Bruce Lee…

This year, many global weather models are signaling that we’re in for a whopper of an El Niño. In fact, some indicate that we appear to be on track to experience one of the strongest El Niños on record. Still, Klaus Wolter, a climate scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder, cautions against getting too caught up in the hype. “There’s always a race for the biggest epithet,” he says. El Niños can vary in strength, and it’s impossible to know yet just how big a punch this one will deliver. The latest models show the current El Niño as the second strongest on record for this time of year (it typically peaks in winter), but some models have scaled back their predictions of a “Super” El Niño. That’s not uncommon: Last year, the odds of a “Super” El Niño occurring diminished substantially — from close to 80 percent earlier in the summer down to 65 percent by August…

Southwest

In contrast to the Northwest, El Niño means good news for Arizona and New Mexico (though as the recent flash flood deaths in Utah reveal, heavy rain in desert areas can be dangerous too). They’ll likely see a wet winter and spring. Similarly, in the southern Rockies, El Niño will tilt the odds in favor of a snowy winter, a boon to ski resorts that make up much of the region’s tourism economy. However, more central and northern parts of the Rockies, extending into Wyoming, will probably suffer relatively dry winters – until spring that is, when El Niño could deliver some mega-storms.

Overall, the prognosis is mixed for the fragile Colorado River Basin and its shrinking reservoirs. Decades of over-allocation and a 15-year warm spell have pushed Lake Mead just inches from unprecedented mandatory water restrictions. In general, the pattern of past El Niños does not correlate well with total runoff, says [Klaus Wolter], since dry winters tend to cancel out wet springs. But as this year proved, a spring boost could give the Basin states some breathing room.

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