Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

During the week of April 8-14, temperatures across the Contiguous U.S. were split into above-normal readings in the western U.S., below-normal readings east of the Mississippi River, and near-normal temperatures in the Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures across the western Great Plains, the Rocky Mountains, and the Intermountain West ranged from 3-12 degrees warmer than normal. In the Upper Ohio River Valley and Appalachian Mountains, temperatures from 6-12 degrees cooler-than-normal were widespread. Dry weather occurred over much of the Great Plains and western U.S., except for parts of North Dakota, Montana, northern Idaho and western Washington. Some moderate precipitation amounts, locally exceeding an inch or two, occurred in parts of the eastern U.S., especially in the Mid-Atlantic, though precipitation was mostly light east of the Mississippi River otherwise.

Changes to the U.S. Drought Monitor depiction were somewhat limited this week compared to the last few. Increases in drought coverage occurred in parts of southern Texas, New Mexico, much of Colorado, and parts of Kansas, Nebraska and northern South Dakota. Dry weather and high fire danger continued in south Florida this week, leading to further degradation and the development of localized extreme drought. The higher precipitation amounts in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast led to some localized improvements in ongoing drought and abnormal dryness. Heavier precipitation over the last month has quickly improved conditions in this region, with lessened precipitation deficits and increasing groundwater in many areas…

High Plains

Across the High Plains, ongoing drought or abnormal dryness mostly stayed the same or worsened after dry weather occurred across the region (excluding North Dakota) and warmer-than-normal temperatures overspread the Great Plains and central Rocky Mountains. Temperatures from 3-12 degrees above normal occurred across the region, with the warmest readings occurring in the western Great Plains and in the Colorado Front Range area. Widespread degradation in drought conditions, due to low snowpack and short- and long-term precipitation deficits, occurred in the central and southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado. Moderate drought expanded in western and east-central Kansas this week, where streamflow and soil moisture dropped amid growing precipitation deficits. Similar conditions existed from south-central into eastern Nebraska, where moderate drought became re-established. Localized degradations to drought conditions occurred in north-central South Dakota amid growing precipitation deficits, though conditions across most of the Dakotas remained unchanged this week. Moderate drought coverage decreased slightly southwest of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, where precipitation deficits lessened and soil moisture conditions improved…

West

A mix of near-, below- and above-normal temperatures occurred in northern Idaho and in Washington. Otherwise, temperatures across the West were warmer than normal this week, with widespread readings of 6-12 degrees above normal in parts of central and eastern California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico. Mostly dry weather, with a few exceptions in Montana, northern Idaho, western Washington and northwest Oregon, occurred across the West this week. In northern New Mexico, soil moisture levels dropped and short-term precipitation deficits grew, leading to an expansion of severe drought (concurrent with expansions of drought coverage in Colorado). Extreme and exceptional drought grew in coverage in far southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona, where very dry surface conditions and high evaporative demand continued amid severe precipitation deficits…

South

Mostly dry weather occurred across the South region this week, aside from eastern Tennessee and scattered light rain amounts in northern Mississippi and central and western Tennessee. Temperatures ranged from 3-9 degrees below normal in areas east of the Mississippi River and in southern Louisiana and southeast Texas, to 3 to locally 9 degrees or more above normal in western parts of Oklahoma and Texas. Given recent very wet weather in the eastern half of the region, no changes occurred in drought or abnormal dryness in the eastern part of the region other than a slight reduction in abnormal dryness in eastern Tennessee after recent rains. In southern Texas, severe drought expanded in a small area between San Antonio and Houston where streamflow and soil moisture decreased and short-term precipitation deficits grew. Exceptional drought grew in coverage from near Eagle Pass to northwest of Del Rio in southern Texas, where short- and long-term precipitation deficits worsened, soil moisture and groundwater levels worsened, and reservoir levels were at or near record-low levels. Stage 3 restrictions were in effect for the San Antonio Water System, and Stage 4 restrictions were present for farmers and pumpers operating in the Edwards Aquifer…

Looking Ahead

Between Wednesday, April 16 and the evening of Monday, April 21, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting widespread heavy rainfall in parts of the central U.S., especially along east and south of the Interstate 44, 35 and 70 corridors in Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois and Indiana. Precipitation amounts may reach or exceed 3 inches from eastern Oklahoma northeast through St. Louis into eastern Illinois. The forecast calls for precipitation amounts from 0.25-1 inches in parts of the Rocky Mountains, with locally higher amounts possible, especially from far northern New Mexico north to southern Montana. Precipitation amounts from 0.5-1.25 inches, with localized higher amounts, are forecast from southeast Minnesota east through Wisconsin and Michigan. Farther east, weather along the Atlantic Coast is forecast to be mostly dry.

For the period from April 22-26, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast favors above-normal precipitation in much of the central and southern U.S., especially in Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also favored across most of the contiguous U.S., especially in the Southeast. Drier-than-normal weather is slightly favored in northwest California and coastal areas of Oregon and Washington.

In Hawaii, warmer- and wetter-than-normal weather is strongly favored from April 22-26. In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is favored for April 22-26 in most areas outside of the North Slope. Colder-than-normal temperatures are favored in the central and eastern thirds of Alaska, while warmer-than-normal temperatures are likelier in southwest Alaska and the Aleutian Islands.

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Climate Center website (Russ Schumacher):

April 14, 2025

The peak in mountain snowpack (the amount of water stored in the snow) is typically in early April in Colorado’s southern mountains, and later in April in the north. Looking at the conditions right now, we’ve almost certainly passed the peak for this year. And the numbers don’t look good, especially in the southern part of the state.

To recap how we got here, the snow season got off to a huge start in November, then came one of the driest winters on record in the mountains. March was a little more active, but was also quite warm.

As of April 13, the mountains that feed water into the southern river basins had less than half of the usual snowpack they would usually have on that date. The numbers aren’t as bad in the northern mountains, with 80-90% of average snowpack. But keep in mind that in the northern basins, the average is still going *up* in mid-April, but the snow this year is already starting to decline. So with warm, sunny days and no new snow falling, these numbers are also going to get smaller as April goes on. From the perspective of “snow drought” and water supply for the coming summer, this is not what you want the snowpack map to look like in mid-April.

Since we’re almost certainly past the peak, we can also see how this year’s peak stacks up compared to past years. In many locations, these numbers make the picture look even worse. This map shows the percentile rank of the peak snow water equivalent (SWE) compared to all past years at each SNOTEL station, focusing on southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. On this map, if you see 50 it means it’s right in the middle of the historical distribution; 100 means the highest on record, and 0 the lowest. Through the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo mountains, many stations are below the 10th percentile, and several had their lowest or 2nd-lowest peak snowpack since they were installed (most were established in the late 1970s or early 80s).

For example, at the Upper San Juan SNOTEL station near Wolf Creek Pass, it’s the 2nd-lowest peak SWE since the station was established in 1979, worse than even 2018 (which was a terrible drought and wildfire year in southwestern Colorado), though still ahead of the historic 2002 drought year. With record-warm conditions in recent days and sunny conditions that increase sublimation, what snowpack remains is going to continue declining rapidly.

In the northern parts of the San Juan mountains, the snowpack numbers aren’t quite as bleak, but overall it is shaping up to be a very poor year for streamflow and water supply in southwest Colorado (and throughout the southwest US). The water supply forecasts from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center bear this out. The predicted river flows for April through July (when the vast majority of the annual flow occurs) are not so bad in the headwaters of the Colorado River in Colorado, where the projection is for 80-100% of average water supply. But in the southwestern Colorado rivers like the Animas, San Juan, and Dolores, flows will be much lower than average, and Lake Powell is expected to see less than 70% of its average inflow. Lake Powell levels aren’t quite at the historic lows from a few years ago, but the lake is still far lower than its historical average and will likely see further declines this year with poor inflows and continued high demand for water.

Where does this fit in to recent trends?

The poor mountain snowpack and early melt-out this year align with the trends in Colorado’s southern mountains over the last 40+ years. We’ve analyzed the trends at the SNOTEL stations that have data back to at least 1979, for both the peak SWE and the date of the peak SWE. If you see opaque circles on the maps below, there is a statistically significant trend over this time period; if the circles are transparent the trend is not significant. In Colorado’s northern mountains, trends over the last 45 years are fairly modest overall, with some mixed signals. But in the southern mountains, the data make a very clear statement: snowpack is declining, and the peak is happening earlier. At many of the stations in the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo mountains, the peak SWE has declined by 3-5% per decade, and the peak has shifted 2-4 weeks earlier. (When this year’s poor snowpack gets incorporated, these trends might look even steeper.) A combination of factors are responsible for these trends, including that the 1980s were unusually wet, so the recent declines look even worse; rising temperatures globally and especially in the interior west, and increases in dust-on-snow that reduces the ability of snow to reflect sunlight. Heat waves in April, like the one we’ve experienced in recent days, don’t help the situation either, as discussed in this paper about a similar heatwave in April 2021. You might recall that we had one last year too.

The overall downward trend doesn’t mean we can’t still get years with big snowpack — some of the same locations that are near record lows this year were near record *highs* in 2019 and 2023. But the bad years are outnumbering the good ones over time.

Could there be a “Miracle May” to improve the situation like what happened in 2015? In western US weather and climate, anything is possible! But it does not appear to be very likely. Although La Niña conditions that have been in place through the winter are waning, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlook shows high confidence for continued drier-than-average conditions through the spring and early summer. It would be nice if we could find some better news about drought and water in Colorado to share, but right now unfortunately there isn’t much good news to find.

Shuang-Ye Wu, University of Dayton

A powerful storm system that stalled over states from Texas to Ohio for several days in early April 2025 wreaked havoc across the region, with deadly tornadoes, mudslides and flooding as rivers rose. More than a foot of rain fell in several areas.

As a climate scientist who studies the water cycle, I often get questions about how extreme storms like these form and what climate change has to do with it. There’s a recipe for extreme storms, with two key ingredients.

Recipe for a storm

The essential conditions for storms to form with heavy downpours are moisture and atmospheric instability.

First, in order for a storm to develop, the air needs to contain enough moisture. That moisture comes from water evaporating off oceans, lakes and land, and from trees and other plants.

The amount of moisture the air can hold depends on its temperature. The higher the temperature, the more moisture air can hold, and the greater potential for heavy downpours. This is because at higher temperatures water molecules have more kinetic energy and therefore are more likely to exist in the vapor phase. The maximum amount of moisture possible in the air increases at about 7% per degree Celsius.

Warm air also supplies storm systems with more energy. When that vapor starts to condense into water or ice as it cools, it releases large amount of energy, known as latent heat. This additional energy fuels the storm system, leading to stronger winds and greater atmospheric instability.

That leads us to the second necessary condition for a storm: atmospheric instability.

Atmospheric instability has two components: rising air and wind shear, which is created as wind speed changes with height. The rising air, or updraft, is essential because air cools as it moves up, and as a result, water vapor condenses to form precipitation.

As the air cools at high altitudes, it starts to sink, forming a downdraft of cool and dry air on the edge of a storm system.

When there is little wind shear, the downdraft can suppress the updraft, and the storm system quickly dissipates as it exhausts the local moisture in the air. However, strong wind shear can tilt the storm system, so that the downdraft occurs at a different location, and the updraft of warm moist air can continue, supplying the storm with moisture and energy. This often leads to strong storm systems that can spawn tornadoes.

Extreme downpours hit the US

It is precisely a combination of these conditions that caused the prolonged, extensive precipitation that the Midwest and Southern states saw in early April.

The Midwest is prone to extreme storms, particularly during spring. Spring is a transition time when the cold and dry air mass from the Arctic, which dominates the region in winter, is gradually being pushed away by warm and moist air from the Gulf that dominates the region in summer.

This clash of air masses creates atmosphere instability at the boundary, where the warm and less dense air is pushed upward above the cold and denser air, creating precipitation.

A cold front forms when a cold air mass pushes away a warm air mass. A warm front forms when the warm air mass pushes to replace the cold air mass. A cold front usually moves faster than a warm front, but the speed is related to the temperature difference between the two air masses.

The warm conditions before the April storm system reduced the temperature difference between these cold and warm air masses, greatly reducing the speed of the frontal movement and allowing it to stall over states from Texas to Ohio.

The result was prolonged precipitation and repeated storms. The warm temperatures also led to high moisture content in the air masses, leading to more precipitation. In addition, strong wind shear led to a continuous supply of moisture into the storm systems, causing strong thunderstorms and dozens of tornadoes to form.

What global warming has to do with storms

As global temperatures rise, the warming air creates conditions that are more conducive to extreme precipitation.

The warmer air can mean more moisture, leading to wetter and stronger storms. And since most significant warming occurs near the surface, while the upper atmosphere is cooling, this can increase wind shear and the atmospheric instability that sets the stage for strong storms.

Polar regions are also warming two to three times as fast as the global average, reducing the temperature gradient between the poles and equator. That can weaken the global winds. Most of the weather systems in the continental U.S. are modulated by the polar jet stream, so a weaker jet stream can slow the movement of storms, creating conditions for prolonged precipitation events.

All of these create conditions that make extreme storms and flooding much more likely in the future.

Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of Dayton

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Click the link to read the release on the Colorado State University website:

Bark beetles and other insects are spreading through Colorado’s forests, leaving dead and dying trees in their wake – a cycle that could fuel future wildfires, according to an annual Colorado State Forest Service report released March 26.  

Following a wet and cool year in 2023, the shift back to near-record temperatures and below-average precipitation in Colorado last year exacerbated the proliferation of forest pests and weakened trees’ defenses against them. 

“Trees in Colorado can’t catch a break as our climate becomes warmer and dryer,” said Matt McCombs, state forester and director of the Colorado State Forest Service. “This ongoing trend toward persistent drought and higher temperatures not only makes trees easier prey for insects but increases the risk of large and severe wildfires. 

“Couple that with more people living in areas prone to burn, and the state faces enormous challenges,” McCombs added. “The good news is we know Colorado is on the right path to address these challenges and foster forests and communities that are resilient to wildfire and forest pests.” 

The 2024 forest health assessment details which insects and diseases are the biggest threats to the state’s forests and where outbreaks are expanding. The report also describes the state forest service’s science-based management practices that are promoting wildfire-resilient forests and healthy watersheds. 

The CSFS updates the Colorado General Assembly and residents annually on the health of the state’s forests based on an annual aerial survey, field inspections and information from forest landowners. 

Read the 2024 Report on the Health of Colorado’s Forests and view a story map with additional data here. 

Adapted from a CSFS press release. 

Click the link to read the research article on the AGU website (M. S. Kukal, M. Hobbins):

Abstract

Global atmospheric evaporative demand has increased, impacting agricultural productivity and water use. Traditionally, trend assessments have been limited to total evaporative demand, overlooking shifts in daily extremes, which are meaningful for agrohydrological outcomes yet largely unknown. Here, using a fully physical metric of evaporative demand, that is, standardized short crop reference evapotranspiration, we introduce the concept of thirstwaves—prolonged periods of extremely high evaporative demand—and analyze their characteristics during 1981–2021 growing seasons for the conterminous US. Findings show that long-term mean spatial patterns demonstrated by thirstwave characteristics do not follow that of total or mean evaporative demand. Weighted for cropland area harvested, thirstwave intensity, duration, and frequency have increased by 0.06 mm d⁻¹ decade⁻¹, 0.10 days decade⁻¹, and 0.39 events decade⁻¹, respectively during 1981–2021. Statistically significant trends appear across 17%, 7%, and 23% of cropland area for intensity, frequency, and duration. Not only have thirstwaves increased in severity, but the likelihood of no thirstwaves occurring during the growing season has significantly decreased. Our work proposes a novel metric to describe periods of extremely elevated evaporative demand and presents a systematic analysis of such conditions historically for US croplands.

Key Points

• Regional hotspots of thirstwaves do not necessarily align with areas of high overall evaporative demand
• Intensity, duration, and frequency of thirstwaves have increased significantly (p < 0.05) over 17%, 7%, and 23% of US cropland area, respectively
• The likelihood of no thirstwaves occurring during the growing season has significantly decreased

Plain Language Summary

The atmosphere is getting more demanding for water around the world, and this affects water use and farming outcomes. Previously, studies mainly looked at the overall atmospheric demand for water, but little is known about changes in occurrence of very high atmospheric demand for water over consecutive days. In this study, we use introduce the idea of “thirstwaves,” which are long periods of very high atmospheric demand for water. We looked at these thirstwaves that have occurred during 1981–2021 in the US and analyzed them for how intense and how frequent they were and how many days they lasted. We found that the worst thirstwaves happened in places that do not see the highest demand. Over time, all aspects of these thirstwaves have gotten worse. It has also become much less likely that a growing season will pass without any thirstwaves. These findings suggest that in addition to monitoring overall atmospheric demand for water, it’s important to track, measure, and report thirstwaves to those managing agriculture and water resources.

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

.This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw widespread improvement in drought-related conditions across areas of the South, Southeast, and Midwest, where a series of strong storms delivered heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and severe flooding. The multi-day storm event saturated soils leading to inundation of rivers, and severe flooding in low-lying areas from Arkansas to Ohio. Storm totals from the multi-day event ranged from 4 to 18+ inches, with the highest accumulations observed across central Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, and western portions of both Tennessee and Kentucky. In addition to heavy rainfall, the storm system sparked dozens of tornadoes as well as strong gusty winds in other areas, causing widespread power outages. Elsewhere, improving conditions over the past 30 to 60 days, led to reduction in areas of drought in the Northeast, from New York to Maine, as well as in areas further south including New Jersey and Virginia. In the Midwest, this week’s rainfall event pushed rainfall totals well above normal levels for the past 30-day period, leading to improvements across the Midwest in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. In the Upper Midwest and portions of the Plains, drought-related conditions improved on the map across areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota, where precipitation has been above normal for the past 30-90-day period and soil moisture monitoring products are showing normal to above-normal levels. In the West, above-normal springtime temperatures are causing a rapid melting of high-elevation snowpacks across the entire region. Looking at the current snowpack conditions out West, deep seasonal snowpack deficits remain across the ranges of southwestern Colorado, New Mexico, northern Arizona, and southwestern Utah. Elsewhere in the region, areas of the Great Basin and Intermountain West saw improvements on the map including parts of northeastern Nevada, Wyoming, and northwestern Colorado. In terms of reservoir storage in the West, California’s reservoirs continue to be at or above historical averages for the date (April 8), with the state’s two largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, at 116% and 120% of average, respectively. In the Southwest, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is reporting (April 6) Lake Powell at 33% full, Lake Mead at 34% full, and the total Colorado system at 41% full (compared to 42% full at the same time last year)…

High Plains

On this week’s map, improvements were made in the region, namely in northern Kansas, northern Nebraska, and South Dakota, where shorter-term precipitation (past 30-60 days) is normal to above normal. Additionally, these areas were showing improvements in other drought indicators including soil moisture, streamflow activity, and satellite-based vegetation health. In western North Dakota, areas of Extreme (D3), Severe (D2), and Moderate (D1) drought expanded on the map in response to a combination of factors, including numerous recent impact reports from the agricultural sector, below-normal precipitation (past 30 days), and low streamflow and soil moisture levels. For the week, generally dry conditions prevailed across western portions of the region, while eastern portions received modest accumulations of <1.5 inches (liquid). In terms of temperatures, below-normal average temperatures (ranging from 2 to 10+ degrees F) were logged across the entire region…

West

Out West, generally dry conditions prevailed over much of the region, including areas of California, the Great Basin, the Intermountain West, and the Desert Southwest (southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico). However, some mountain locations in the Pacific Northwest and the Rocky Mountains received light-to-moderate precipitation accumulations. On the map, areas of Extreme (D3) drought were introduced in southeastern Arizona, where precipitation deficits existed at both short- and longer-term time scales. Similarly, ongoing below-normal snowpack conditions (snow water equivalent at NRCS SNOTEL stations ranging from 6 to 55% of median) in the Nacimiento, San Juan, and Sangre de Cristo ranges of New Mexico, led to the introduction of areas of Extreme (D3) drought. Elsewhere, some improvements were made on the map in drought-affected areas of northeastern Nevada, northeastern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and Wyoming. Looking at the regional snowpack, the NRCS SNOTEL network is reporting (April 8) the following region-level (2-digit HUC) SWE levels: Pacific Northwest 102%, Missouri 97%, Upper Colorado 89%, Great Basin 104%, Lower Colorado 69%, and Rio Grande 46%…

South

On this week’s map, widespread improvements were made in response to very heavy rainfall accumulations observed across parts of the region, with the highest totals (ranging from 5 to 15+ inches) observed in northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, western Tennessee, and southern Mississippi. The multi-day storm event led to catastrophic flooding in parts of the region as well as tornadic activity, widespread power outages, and loss of life. However, the deluge of rains also led to significant improvements in drought-related conditions, with multiple category improvements made on the map. For the week, average temperatures were above normal in eastern areas, with anomalies ranging from 3 to 12 degrees F. Conversely, the western extent of the region, including much of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, experienced temperatures ranging from 3 to 12 degrees F below normal. Looking at Texas reservoir conditions, statewide reservoirs are reported to be 75.7% full, with many reservoirs in the eastern part of the state in good condition (over 90% full), while numerous reservoirs in the western portion of the state continue to experience below-normal levels, according to Water Data for Texas (April 9). In terms of streamflow activity (April 9), the U.S. Geological Survey is reporting well above normals streamflows (>90th percentile) across northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, and western Tennessee, while areas of central and southern Texas are experiencing below normal levels (1st to 24th percentile range)…

Looking Ahead

The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for relatively dry conditions across the conterminous U.S., except for light-to-moderate accumulations across areas of the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, Lower Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10-day Outlook calls for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across the Western U.S., Plains, and areas of the South, while below-normal temperatures are expected across eastern portions of the Midwest and portions of the Northeast. Elsewhere, near-normal temperatures are favored. In terms of precipitation, there is a low-to-moderate probability of above-normal precipitation across New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma as well as areas of the Upper Midwest. Elsewhere, below-normal precipitation is expected across most of the West, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

Click the link to read the briefing on the Western Resource Advocates website:

With the snow accumulation portion of the 2025 water year drawing to a close, snowpack in much of the region was near average, except for southern Colorado, southern Utah and northeastern Wyoming where snowpack ranged from 50-80% of average. Above average precipitation in northern Utah and much of Wyoming added to snowpack during March and caused the removal of drought conditions from the Wasatch Front and northern and central Wyoming. A late-March rain/snow event produced record precipitation along the northern Front Range and Eastern Plains and alleviated drought. Seasonal streamflow volume forecasts vary from much below average in southern Utah and southwestern Colorado to near average forecasts for more northerly river basins such as the Colorado headwaters, Yampa, North Platte and Bighorn River Basins. The streamflow volume for Lake Powell’s inflow is forecasted at 67% of average.

March precipitation was near-to-above average in Wyoming and much of Utah. Below average March precipitation fell across much of Colorado and southeastern Utah. In northern Utah, March precipitation was 130-200% of average and large areas of Wyoming received 130-300% of average March precipitation. Parts of southern Colorado and southeastern Utah received less than 50% of average March precipitation, further worsening drought conditions. Six long-term weather monitoring sites in eastern Colorado received record-low March precipitation.

March temperatures were mostly above average. In Utah and southwestern Colorado, March temperatures were within two degrees of average. March temperatures in other parts of Colorado and Wyoming were two to six degrees above average.

April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) was near average for much of Wyoming, northern Colorado and northern Utah, ranging from 90% in the Lower Green to 110% in the Upper Snake River Basins. In southern Colorado and southern Utah, April 1 SWE was below to much below average, ranging from 44% in the Virgin to 80% in the Gunnison River Basins. On a statewide basis, SWE was near average in Utah (92%) and Wyoming (100%), but below average in Colorado (84%). In southwestern Utah, eight Snotel sites at elevations ranging from 6,000-8,900 feet have completely melted, which is 14 to 34 days earlier than average.

Spatial estimates of SWE on March 31, provided by INSTAAR at the University of Colorado, show lower estimates of SWE relative to average for all river basins except Wyoming’s Bighorn, Snake and Yellowstone Basins. The lower percent average SWE from spatial SWE estimates compared to Snotel-derived SWE is largely due to the inclusion of low elevation snowpack in the spatial SWE estimates which is not well-represented in the Snotel network. Snowpack at elevations below Snotel sites was generally low in 2025 due to higher snow levels and periods of warm sunny weather in March. The entire Spatial SWE report for 3/31/25 can be downloaded here.

April 1 seasonal (April-July) streamflow volume forecasts were near-to-below average across the region. In general, seasonal streamflow volume forecasts were near average in the North and below or much below average in the South. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, near average streamflow volumes are forecasted for the Colorado Headwaters (90%) and the Yampa (94%); below average streamflow volumes for the Upper Green (80%), Lower Green (80%) and Gunnison (85%); and much below average streamflow volume for the Dolores (55%) and San Juan (48%). Seasonal streamflow is forecasted at 67% of average for Lake Powell. In the Missouri River Basin, near average seasonal streamflow volumes are forecasted for the Bighorn and North Platte River Basins, and below average streamflow is forecasted for the Arkansas, Cheyenne, Powder, South Platte and Tongue River Basins. Note: both NRCS and the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) provide seasonal streamflow forecasts for the Upper Colorado River Basin and these forecasts occasionally differ due to differences in streamflow forecasting models. For example, the April 1, 2025 seasonal streamflow forecast for the Upper Green River at Flaming Gorge is 80% from the CBRFC and 94% from the NRCS.

On April 1, drought conditions covered 54% of the region, a 2% regional decline from February 25. Significant expansion of drought in Colorado during March was offset by the removal of drought conditions along the Wasatch Front in northern Utah and in northern and central Wyoming. Extreme drought conditions were removed from the Snake and Powder River Basins and the area of severe drought contracted during March. Drought conditions expanded and became more severe in western Colorado and drought conditions emerged in both central and southeastern Colorado during March.

Pacific Ocean temperatures were near average in March, ENSO is currently in a neutral phase, and there is a greater than 50% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions continuing through early fall. The NOAA monthly outlook for April suggests an increased probability of below average precipitation and above average temperatures across most of Colorado and Utah. The NOAA Seasonal Precipitation Outlook (April-June) indicates an increased probability of below average precipitation for the entire region, especially in Utah and western Colorado. There is also an increased probability of above average temperatures for Colorado, Utah and southwestern Wyoming during April-June.

Significant weather event: Record Front Range precipitation. After a dry January-March, record precipitation fell across the northern Front Range and Eastern Plains of Colorado on March 29-30. Rain fell for most of the event at lower elevations with wet snow accumulating in the foothills. Daily precipitation records were set on March 29 in Boulder (1.41”), Brighton (0.46”), Eastonville (0.70”), Greeley (0.60”), Longmont (0.66”) and Winter Park (0.76”) and two-day precipitation records were set on March 29-30 at 11 locations with more than 50 years of data. Notably, more rain fell on March 29-30 than in all of 2025 at 18 locations. The late March rain and snow event caused a one-category improvement in drought conditions, including the removal of all drought and abnormally dry conditions across a large swath of northeastern Colorado. An area of extreme drought was also removed from Larimer County.

Click the link to read the release on the NRCS website:

April 8, 2025

As Colorado approaches the seasonal peak of its snowpack, data as of April 1 show statewide snow water equivalent at 85 percent of median, down from 112 percent this time last year. March delivered 105 percent of median precipitation across the state, improving snowpack totals in many basins.

As of April 1st Colorado’s snow water equivalent (SWE) is at 85 percent of median, compared to 112 percent on this date last year. Statewide monthly precipitation for March reached 105 percent, while water year to date (WYTD) is at 92 percent of median. March brought increased storm activity, bolstering precipitation and snowpack values, especially across western, northern and central basins. The southern half of the state remains below average, reflecting the extended period of below average precipitation from December through February. However, 30-day precipitation totals through March show improvements. The Gunnison, Arkansas, Upper Rio Grande (URG) and combined San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan (SMDASJ) basins each record above to near average precipitation for the month, with values reaching 108, 77, 86 and 117 percent, respectively. Even with the recent increase in March precipitation, snowpack remains below median in the Gunnison, Arkansas, Upper Rio Grande and combined SMDASJ basins which are at 81, 74, 56 and 63 percent of median, respectively. 

Throughout the final week of March, all basins in the state experienced snowmelt, most notably in the southern half of the state where accelerated melt occurred at many sites. In the Upper Rio Grande basin snowmelt is particularly pronounced with several sites showing both lower than average peak SWE and faster than normal melt rates. Statewide median peak SWE typically occurs April 8^th, although actual timing varies basin to basin. The Headwaters of the Rio Grande sub-basin are days away from peak with the median date around April 11^th. Following a storm over the first weekend of April the Headwaters of the Rio Grande sub-basin records a modest boost in SWE, now holding 73 percent of median and ranking in the 17^th percentile.

Colorado’s northern river basins all have near to above median snowpack ranging from 93 to 103 percent. As of April 1^st, the South Platte is at 98 percent of median snowpack, the Laramie and North Platte at 103 percent, Colorado Headwaters is at 96 percent and the Yampa-White-Little Snake at 93 percent. Each of these basins have reached approximately 84 to 91 percent of median peak SWE, with room to grow before their median peak dates in mid to late April. 

While April has the potential to deliver meaningful snowpack accumulation, it’s worth noting that many sites in southern basins have likely already passed their seasonal peak. Median peak SWE dates in these basins range from April 2^nd to April 8^th. To date, the Arkansas, URG and SMDASJ reached their highest SWE around March 23-24. Current SWE as a percent of median ranges from 47 to 71 percent in southern basins. These values reflect a notably below average snowpack and while not all sites are record breaking, there are some sites among the lowest on record or near record at several locations. Of the 198 SNOTEL and snow course sites in Colorado, 40 sites (20% percent) currently fall withing the lowest 15^th percentile for their respective period of records. “These values reflect how far off some sites are from their typical accumulation and highlight the larger picture of below normal snowpack in the southern basins,” says Nagam Gill, NRCS hydrologist. SNOTEL records in this group span 9 to 47 years, while manual snow course surveys extend from 42 to 88 years of data. 

Statewide reservoir storage is at 92 percent of median and 58 percent of total capacity. While this is slightly below last year’s 100 percent of median at this time, most major reservoir across the state observe near 30 year medians. Dillon Reservoir is at 97 percent of median and 80 percent capacity and Lake Granby holds 101 percent of median at 58 percent capacity. Pueblo Reservoir is at 109 percent of median and 71 percent of capacity. The streamflow forecast at Pueblo Reservoir Inflow project 370,000 acre-feet for the April – September period or 94 percent of median and has stayed consistent from last months projections. Blue Mesa is at 96 percent of median and 60 percent of capacity. Notably below average is McPhee Reservoir at 76 percent of median and 56 percent of capacity. 

April 1 volumetric streamflow forecasts reflect snowpack and precipitation conditions across Colorado at 86 percent of median. Forecasts are near to above average for northern basins and below to much below average for the southern half of the state. Statewide, 40 percent of forecast points are at 75 or less of median and 27 percent of those points fall in the lower 25^th percentile. Navajo Reservoir Inflow forecasts a 325 kaf median departure from the period of record (POR) median. McPhee Reservoir Inflow is at 64 percent of median with a 91 kaf departure. Forecast volumes in the Colorado Headwaters, Yampa-White-Little Snake, Laramie and North Platte, and South Platte are at 96, 95, 102 and 93 percent of median seasonal streamflow volumes, respectively. In contrast, the Gunnison, Arkansas, URG and combined SMDASJ basins are forecast at 86, 87, 63 and 60 percent of median, respectively. These outlooks reflect the considerable differences in peak SWE and melt out trends already underway in the southern portion of the state. Compared to March 1 outlooks, forecast volumes decline by roughly 12 to 15 percentage points in the URG and SMDASJ basins, driven by accelerated snowmelt during late March. The variability of forecasted volumes means that relying solely on the 50% exceedance forecast may not fully capture the uncertainty in future weather. A critical consideration when reviewing these forecasts is the full suite of exceedance probabilities.

Click the link to read the outlook on the NRCS website. Here’s an excerpt:

Click the link to read the article on the Denver7.com website (Colette Bordelon). Here’s an excerpt:

April 7, 2025

“The problem is becoming tougher to deal with and more acute,” one Western water lawyer told Denver7.

…this time of year has water experts wondering what the snowpack levels will mean for runoff into the Colorado River, a critical resource.

“Right now is exactly when we start being concerned about what our runoff is going to look like,” said James Eklund, who is a Western water lawyer. “It’s starting to get warmer, and so all that snow that everybody skied on and snowboarded on over the winter is going to start melting off and go into our rivers and our reservoirs.”

“Right now, we’re showing about 67% of average runoff, and that’s really remarkable, because our snowpack is right around 100% of average,” Eklund explained. “Even though we’ve got pretty good precipitation, and we did have really good skiing conditions in many parts of the state over much of the ski season, it’s not translating to as much runoff as we had hoped.”

Sixty-seven percent of average runoff is “not where you want to be,” according to Eklund, who considers this to be a “below average year.”

Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Kristy Burnett):

On April 1, Gov. Jared Polis and the Colorado State Forest Service (CSFS) announced $7.04 million in wildfire mitigation grants. 

In total, the CSFS will award the $7.04 million to 37 projects in 26 counties across Colorado.

Included in the funding is Wildfire Adapted Partnership for community fuels reduction in Southwest Colorado 

Colorado’s diverse forests cover more than 24 million acres, and they provide crucial benefits, including clean air and water, habitat for wildlife, outdoor recreation and more. 

All of these values that Colorado’s forests provide are at risk of wildfire. Since 2018, the state of Colorado has provided funding to assist communities and groups across Colorado to reduce their wildfire risk and promote forest health through the Forest Restoration and Wildfire Risk Mitigation (FRWRM) grant program, administered by the CSFS. 

“Preventing wildfires is an all-hands-on-deck effort in Colorado. Wildfires continue to be a serious threat to Colorado communities, and investing in fire mitigation initiatives and helping communities create defensible spaces helps all Coloradans and firefighters to be better prepared in the event of a fire emergency. This $7.04 million in wildfire grants will provide the essential resources that are crucial to continue building resilience to wildfires across Colorado,” Polis said. 

The FRWRM grant program has a matching requirement, either through cash or in-kind contributions. 

Award recipients in areas with fewer economic resources, as defined by the social vulnerability index layer within the Colorado Forest Atlas, must match 25 percent of the project total, and all other award recipients must match 50 percent of the total project cost, amounting to nearly $9 million in match. 

With these matching funds included, communities and groups across Colorado will invest about $16 million in efforts dedicated to forest restoration and wildfire mitigation. The projects awarded in this funding cycle will also build capacity for wildfire mitigation projects through staffing and equipment purchases. 

The funding for this round of FRWRM awards will help Coloradans complete the following activities:

• Build community capacity to address wildfire.
• Reduce the risk of wildfire to people, property and infrastructure.
• Promote forest health and restoration.
• Encourage the use of wood from forest health and fuels reduction projects.

“Addressing forest health and wildfire mitigation at the local level is the most efficient and effective way to make Colorado’s forests more resilient,” said Matt McCombs, state forester and director of the CSFS. “This funding is crucial each year to protect our homes, critical infrastructure and our way of life.”

For the 2024-2025 round of FRWRM grants, the CSFS received 95 eligible applications requesting nearly $25 million. Since $7.04 million was available for this round of grants, 58 projects totaling nearly $15.4 million could not be funded. In addition, of the 37 awarded projects, the CSFS could only partially fund six of them, leaving about $2.5 million of their original requests unfunded.

“The Colorado State Forest Services FRWRM grant is a critical element in our overall state efforts to improve forest health and reduce the risk of wildfires on our landscapes, and creating fire-adapted communities,” said Dan Gibbs, executive director of the Colorado Department of Natural Resources. “Colorado is one lightning strike and one unattended campfire away from our next wildfire. With about half of all Coloradans living in the wildland-urban interface, these grants provide important capacity for locally and regionally driven wildfire prevention efforts.”

The CSFS will announce the next round of funding assistance through the FRWRM grant program in the fall. For information about the program, visit the CSFS website.