This week, a massive heat dome settled over the central and southern United States, creating unprecedented warmth for the holiday week. This high-pressure system shattered daily high-temperature records, with readings soaring 15 to 35 degrees above average across the region. Numerous daily records were broken between December 24 and December 27, contributing to what was forecast to be the warmest Christmas Day on record for the contiguous U.S. The weather pattern snapped violently late in the weekend as a powerful winter cyclone swept eastward from the Plains between December 27 and 29. This system drove a sharp cold front through the South, causing temperatures to plummet from record highs to near freezing overnight. Simultaneously, the storm unleashed severe winter conditions across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, delivering blizzard conditions and up to two feet of snow near Lake Superior, alongside significant ice accumulations that snarled travel in parts of the Northeast. Precipitation was near- to below-normal for much of the country, while much of the West, and parts of the Midwest and Northeast observed above-normal precipitation during this week. The West Coast was a notable exception where a strong atmospheric river brought heavy precipitation to most of California, dumping over 10 inches of rain in some areas and several feet of new snow in the mountains…
Warmer-than-average temperatures dominated the High Plains this week, with departures ranging up to +25 degrees F above normal, while near- to below-normal temperatures were observed along northern portions of the region. Precipitation varied across the region, with most areas reporting near- to below-normal totals. Western Wyoming was the exception, where weekly precipitation totals were 200% to 600% of normal. Consequently, severe drought (D2) was removed from western Wyoming, while moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) improved. Conditions were drier on the east side of the state, justifying the expansion of abnormal dryness in those areas. The majority of the southern half of the High Plains observed temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal for the week, while precipitation totals were reported to be 25% or less of normal. Extreme drought (D3) expanded in central Colorado, while moderate drought (D1) expanded in southern Colorado, across northern portions of Nebraska, and in southeast Kansas. Abnormal dryness (D0) expanded across northeast Colorado, southern and northern portions of Nebraska, and in southeast Kansas…
Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending December 30, 2025.
Temperatures were above normal across much of the West this week, while below-normal temperatures were observed along parts of the West Coast and in northern Montana. For the week, temperature departures ranged from -10 degrees F below normal in northern Montana to +25 degrees F above normal in parts of Nevada and Utah. Precipitation varied across the region, with beneficial amounts falling across much of the southwest and parts of the north. Over the past 14 days, much of the West has received 2 to 20+ inches of precipitation, with departures ranging from +1 to +8 inches above normal (150% to 800% of normal). This above-normal precipitation justified the removal of extreme drought (D3) from the Washington-Idaho-Oregon border and reduced severe drought (D2) coverage in northern Montana. Moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) conditions improved in portions of Washington, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and southern Arizona, while moderate drought (D1) was removed in western Washington and improved in north-central Oregon and central Arizona. Abnormal dryness (D0) was removed from southern California and improved across northern portions of the region. Conversely, conditions were drier than normal across interior and eastern portions of the region. Lack of precipitation and growing deficits resulted in the expansion of severe drought (D2) in western Utah, while moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) expanded in central Nevada this week…
Below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures dominated the South this week, resulting in widespread drought degradation across the region. Temperatures were above normal for the entire region, with departures ranging from +5 degrees F to +25 degrees F. Dry conditions also persisted, with monthly rainfall totals ranging from 1 to 5 inches below normal (5% to 25% of normal) for December. Extreme drought (D3) expanded in central Texas, while severe drought (D2) was introduced or expanded in southeast Oklahoma, southeast Texas, west-central Louisiana, eastern Tennessee, parts of central Texas, and northeast Arkansas. Moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) expanded across much of the region…
Looking Ahead
During the next five days (December 30, 2025โJanuary 3, 2026), a highly amplified pattern will create a sharp divide across the Continental U.S. An upper-level ridge situated over the West Coast will keep conditions initially quieter there, while a broad trough east of the Mississippi River will usher in cold air and active winter weather to the eastern states. A strong low-pressure system exiting the Northeast will leave behind blustery conditions and significant lake-effect snow, particularly downwind of the Great Lakes where accumulations of 1-2 feet are possible in Upstate New York. As the week progresses, a reinforcing cold front will sweep through the East on Thursday, maintaining the chill and snow chances, while the western ridge will begin to move inland. This split flow will result in a notable temperature dichotomy across the country. Below-average temperatures will grip the region from the Northern Plains to the East Coast, with the coldest conditions centered on the Upper Midwest where highs in the single digits and subzero overnight lows are expected. Dangerous wind chills may affect the central Gulf Coast and Southeast early in the period. Conversely, much of the West and High Plains will experience above-average warmth. By Thursday and Friday, the weather pattern will shift in the West as Pacific systems move in, bringing rain and mountain snow back to the coast, with potential heavy precipitation in Southern California and snow in the Sierra Nevada.
The Climate Prediction Centerโs 6-10 day outlook (valid January 4โ8, 2026) favors above-normal precipitation across Hawaii, the Pacific Coast and parts of the interior West, Alaska, and in parts of northern Plains and New England. Below-normal precipitation is favored from the central and southern Plains into portions of the Ohio Valley. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are increased across most of the U.S., including most of Hawaii, while below-normal temperatures are favored across most of Alaska and much of the Northeast.
US Drought Monitor one week change map ending December 30, 2025.
Despite the escalating threats to rivers, this past year brought real progress worth celebrating. To highlight the positive strides being made across the country, weโve curated a list of 10 exciting wins for rivers, community safety, people, and wildlife. From proposed Wild and Scenic protections for nearly 100 miles of the Gallatin and Madison rivers, to major investments in river restoration and wildfire resilience in California, and stronger permit safeguards for the Rappahannock River, 2025 proved to be a year of meaningful breakthroughs for waterways nationwide.
In no particular order, hereโs a snapshot of 10 of our biggest river wins of 2025:
Secured major wins for Americaโs Most Endangered Riversยฎ of 2025ย
Our 2025 Americaโs Most Endangered Riversยฎ report ranked the Tijuana River #2 due to toxic pollution threatening border communities. This designation, developed with partners Surfrider Foundation and Un Mar de Colores, helped catalyze swift federal action. Within three months of the April report release,โฏAmerican Rivers and others were invited to meet with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin in southern California, which helped build momentum for a landmark agreementbetween the United States and Mexico toโฏaddress the ongoing public health crisis. This demonstrates how strategic advocacy, combined with persistent community leadership, drives solutions forโฏrivers and their communities.
The Rappahannock Riverโsโฏdesignation as one ofโฏAmericaโs Most Endangered Riversยฎ of 2025โฏbrought crucial national attention to the threats facing Virginiaโs longest free-flowing river. But this spotlight did more than raise awareness; it galvanized action that delivered tangible results. Working alongside our dedicated partners, The Friends of the Rappahannock, the Rappahannock Tribe, and the Southern Environmental Law Center, we achieved a significant victory for the river and the communities that depend on it. This collaborative effort secured permit changes for a proposed data center, banning industrial cooling withdrawals and reducing drought withdrawals by millions of gallons.
Mobilized action to protect Public Lands and Roadless Areasย
The Trump administration is looking to rescind the Roadless Rule, which protects clean water and wildlife habitat by preventing road construction and timber harvest on roughly 45 million acres of national forests. This would be a significant setback (100,000 river miles) to our goal of protecting one million miles of rivers. Our team is making sure decision makers understand the impacts to clean drinking water supplies and we are mobilizing our supporters (weโve collected more than 10,000 signatures so far) in support of these important river protections.
Rainbow trout in the Gallatin River, Montana.
Safeguarding Montanaโs Gallatin and Madison Riversย
Rep. Ryan Zinke (MT) introduced the Greater Yellowstone Recreation Enhancement and Tourism Act (GYREAT Act) โ Wild and Scenic legislation to protect nearly 100 miles of the Gallatin and Madison rivers and their tributaries in southwestern Montana. This legislation was developed through collaboration with American Rivers and our partners. If passed, these protections would create a vital corridor linking the rivers of Yellowstone National Park to the headwaters of the Missouri River.
Defending healthy rivers and Tribal sovereigntyย
American Rivers helped rally national, regional, and local partners in urging the Department of Transportation to protect aquatic connectivity programs โ efforts that restore fish passage, reconnect rivers and wetlands, and replace outdated culverts and road crossings. The joint comment letter was signed by 140 groups โ including Tribes, anglers, businesses, universities, research institutions, conservation organizations, community leaders, agencies, faith groups, and planners โ all united for healthier, more connected waterways.
Additionally, when the Department of Energy urged the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to roll back its 2024 policy protecting Tribal sovereignty in hydropower permitting, American Rivers acted fast. Working with Tribal attorneys, Native networks, and partner organizations, we mobilized national opposition and filed formal comments โ demonstrating our deep commitment to Tribal leadership and ensuring healthy rivers. Weโll continue working alongside Tribal partners to ensure these protections remain strong.
Restoring mountain meadows in Californiaย
American Rivers is a key member of The Sierra Meadows Partnership, a coalition of environmental organizations working together to restore 30,000 acres of mountain meadows by 2030. These meadows act as natural sponges that store water, improve drought resilience, and provide essential wildlife habitat. Through this collaborative effort, we successfully secured a $24.7 million block grant from the Wildlife Conservation Board to support our restoration work.
Restored Wilson Ranch Meadow, California | Allison Hacker
Advanced critical protections for New Mexicoโs waterwaysย
After naming New Mexicoโs waterways #1 on Americaโs Most Endangered Riversยฎ of 2024 list, weโre celebrating significant wins across the state. In the Pecos watershed โ home to elk, black bears, Rio Grande cutthroat trout, and generations-old acequia farms โ the Department of Interior paused new mining claims across 165,000 acres while pursuing longer-term protections. Through advocacy with our partners, we helped secure Outstanding National Resource Waters protection for over 250 miles of rivers across five watersheds, including the Rio Grande. And now, Senator Heinrich (NM) and the All Pueblo Council of Governors are championing protection of the Caja del Rio โ a 107,000-acre landscape along the Rio Grande and Santa Fe rivers that holds deep cultural significance for Puebloan and Hispanic communities while supporting diverse wildlife.
Furthering community safety through dam awarenessย
American Rivers spoke on panels and hosted webinars addressing the deadly threat of low head dams, generating hundreds of participants from across the dam removal and safety industries. A low head dam is a human-made structure that spans the full width of a river and is designed to allow water to continuously flow over it, creating a dangerous hydraulic and earning them the nickname โdrowning machines.โ Our educational workshops brought together leading experts to discuss solutions for addressing these public safety hazards while advancing river restoration solutions.
Building momentum for dam removal across the Northeastย
American Rivers is celebrating a wave of funding that will free multiple rivers across the Northeast. We were awarded $220,000 to remove the Yopp Pond dam on the Fourmile River in Connecticut โ the first barrier blocking this coastal river that drains to Long Island Sound. Fisheries biologists note this removal will be transformational for alewife runs in this critical watershed. Additionally, New Hampshire Fish and Game committed $150,000 to support two strategic dam removals: North Branch Gale dam in the Upper Connecticut River watershed and Mead Brook dam in the Contoocook River watershed. Both dams impact excellent cold-water habitat and are scheduled for removal in 2026. Additionally, the Davis Conservation Foundation granted $20,000 for our hydropower relicensing work in Maine.
Defended Idahoโs Salmon Riverย
Along with our partners at Advocates for the West and coalition members in Idaho, American Rivers and our Action Fund filed a lawsuit against the Forest Service to prevent a massive open-pit gold mine at the headwaters of the South Fork Salmon River. This important waterway is a national treasure that provides critical spawning habitat for the longest-distance, high-elevation salmon migration on Earth, as well as world-class whitewater recreation and fishing. It has been listed as one of Americaโs Most Endangered Riversยฎ for three consecutive years.
ย Improved wildfire resilience in Californiaย
American Rivers and our partner, Terra Fuego Resources Foundation, completed prescribed fire burns on 160 acres as part of a 570-acre fuel reduction and prescribed fire project โ a critical effort to protect the South Yuba River and the communities of Nevada City and Grass Valley from catastrophic wildfire. In a major boost for river restoration, the California Wildlife Conservation Board approved nearly $5 million to launch the Pickel Meadow Restoration Project on the West Walker River. Construction begins this summer, marking an exciting next chapter for this important watershed.
Created by Imgur user Fejetlenfej , a geographer and GIS analyst with a โlifelong passion for beautiful maps.โ It highlights the massive expanse of river basins across the country โ in particular, those which feed the Mississippi River, in pink.
Click the link to read the article on the AZCentral website (Debra Utacia Krol). Here’s an excerpt:
December 29, 2025
Key Points
A new intertribal land trust has acquired 10,000 acres of land along the Klamath River from former dam operator PacifiCorp.
The land transfer is a key step in restoring the river basin’s ecosystem following the removal of four dams.
Indigenous values and traditional practices will guide the restoration of the land, which includes important salmon habitat.
Another milestone in restoring the Klamath River Basin has been reached. A new land trust received title to land on Dec. 22 that includes important salmon habitat and lands upstream of and adjacent to four now-removed dams and the shallow reservoirs that impeded fish and nurtured deadly algae in northern California and southern Oregon. Theย Klamath Indigenous Land Trustย was formed by a coalition of members from four basin tribes after the historic 2002 fish kill to remove the dams as the beginning of a long-term effort to restore health to one of the West’s most imperiled rivers. PacifiCorp, the previous landowner and former hydropower operator, agreed to sell 10,000 acres to the land trust to return stewardship to the tribes who fought for decades to remove the dams as the first step in river recovery. Indigenous values and millennial-long practices which once made the basin one of the West Coast’s largest salmon habitats will direct the job of restoring the ecology of the area, which is the size of West Virginia. The Catena Foundation, the Community Foundation of New Jersey and an anonymous donor provided the funding for the purchase, which is one of the largest such purchases by an Indigenous-led land trust to date…
โDam removal allowed the salmon to return home,” said Molli Myers, the land trust’s board president and member of the Karuk Tribe. “Returning these lands to Indigenous care ensures that home will be a place where they can flourish and recover.โ
โPacifiCorp is pleased to see these lands transition to a stewardship model that honors their cultural and ecological significance,โ said Ryan Flynn, president of Pacific Power, the division of PacifiCorp that serves customers in the Northwest.
Workers raise dam 109 feet in 2025. Next yearโs goal: Reaching the top.
The Denver Water team working on Gross Dam in Boulder County is celebrating a successful year after the dam raise is 95% complete.
โIn 2025, we raised the height of the dam by 109 feet above the original structure,โ said Jeff Martin, Denver Waterโs program manager for the Gross Reservoir Expansion Project. โWe have 22 feet left to go to reach the new height and weโre on track to reach that in 2026.โ
The dam-raising aspect of the Gross Reservoir Expansion Project wrapped up for the season on Nov. 14, due to the drop in temperatures. The project is designed to nearly triple the water storage capacity of Gross Reservoir.
In 2025, workers raised the height of Gross Dam by 109 feet. The final 22 feet will be completed in 2026 to reach the damโs new height of 471 feet. Photo credit: Denver Water.
“We have to stop placing roller-compacted concrete when the temperatures drop below freezing,โ said Casey Dick, deputy program manager for the Gross Reservoir Expansion Project.
โTo prepare for winter, we put blankets on top of the new concrete to keep it from getting too cold. Thatโs because if the concrete freezes while it is still curing, it can lead to a weakened final product.”
Work associated with the dam raise will resume in spring 2026, when the weather warms up enough to complete the final 22 feet.
Protective โblanketsโ were placed on top of the dam to insulate the new concrete, so it does not fully cure over the cold, winter months. Photo credit: Denver Water.
Once that work is complete, the dam will be 471 feet tall, which is 131 feet higher than the original. The completed dam also will be longer across its crest, or top. The original crest was 1,050 feet long; the higher dam will have a crest that stretches 2,040 feet from one side of the canyon to the other.
This year marked the second year of dam raising construction work at Gross.
As of December 2025, workers had placed more than 730,000 cubic yards of concrete. To put that in perspective, Empower Stadium at Mile High, where the Denver Broncos play their home football games, required just 29,000 cubic yards of concrete to build, about 4% of the concrete placed so far on Gross Dam.
Protective โblanketsโ were placed on top of the dam to insulate the new concrete, so it does not fully cure over the cold, winter months. Photo credit: Denver Water.
Roller-compacted concrete is a special mix of concrete that allows crews to place it on the dam and then spread it out. The concrete is firm enough to be able to drive machinery on top of it. The process is a fast and efficient method of raising the dam. During the construction work, crews raised the height of the dam by about 1 foot per day.
Construction crews use GPS technology and survey equipment to keep track of how high theyโve raised the dam.
โThe way we keep track of the elevation gain is that the bulldozers are equipped with GPS-grade control technology, which ensures that each layer of concrete is spread to the correct thickness,โ Dick said.
โOnce the concrete is rolled and vibrated into place, each layer ends up being 1 foot thick. It’s then checked by surveyors with their equipment to verify the exact elevation.โ
The bulldozers are equipped with GPS-grade control technology to monitor the height of the concrete as it is spread across the top of the dam and keep track of the elevation. Photo credit: Denver Water.
Work wonโt completely stop over the winter.
Mechanical and pipe work will be done inside the dam, and crews will build a stilling basin at the base of the dam. The basinโs function is to slow the speed of water coming down the damโs spillway and safely redirect the water into South Boulder Creek.
Work on the stilling basin at the base of the dam will continue over the winter. The stilling basin is designed to slow the flow of water coming down the spillway and channel it into the creek. Photo credit: Denver Water.
โThis season was a huge success, and our team met a ton of challenges in raising Gross Dam,โ Martin said. โWe had legal challenges and adverse weather challenges. We also had wildfire safety operation challenges that shut down our power supply up here. Despite all those setbacks, the dedicated team of 500 men and women rose to the challenge. I’d just like to thank everybody who committed themselves to this project and helped us make 2025 a success.โ
Jeff Martin, Denver Waterโs program manager for the Gross Reservoir Expansion Project, stands at the south side of the dam. Once completed, the dam will reach up to white line on the rock wall. Photo credit: Denver Water.
Aerial view of the snowpack in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado on Dec. 3, 2021. Scientists and water managers use a variety of methods to monitor the snowpack, which supplies most of the water flowing in many Western streams and rivers. Photo by Mitch Tobin/The Water Desk.
A controversial recent study highlights an old truth about the American Westโs snowpack: itโs difficult to measureโand just as hard to forecast how much of its water will ultimately reach tens of millions of people and vast swaths of farmland.
Water managers have increasingly turned to aircraft that use lasers to gauge the snowpack across entire basins. But the Aug. 15 scientific paper argues for a less expensive strategy: focusing new monitoring efforts on a select number of locations known as โhotspotsโ that excel at predicting how much water will run off from the snowpackโa frozen reservoir that can change dramatically over short distances.
Snowfall rates vary widely with elevation, and the amount of water locked in falling snowflakes shifts from storm to storm.
On the ground, snow accumulation depends on the wind, the forest canopy overhead, the exposure to the sun and the amount of dust that lands on the snowpack. Even a homeowner armed with a ruler can find very different snow depths depending on where they poke in their backyard.
For water providers, knowing how much water is stored in the snowpack is essential. In much of the West, snowmelt supplies most of the runoff that flows through streams, rivers, reservoirs, irrigation canals and household faucets.
If water managers overestimate the snowpack, their customers can be left high and dry later in the year. But if analysts underestimate streamflows, reservoirs can fill faster than expectedโraising the risk of disastrous flooding.
With climate change making the snowpack less reliable and redefining what โnormalโ means, the pressure on forecasters is intensifying in a rapidly growing region with a well-documented gap between water supply and demand. Even a perfect knowledge of the snowpackโs water content doesnโt guarantee accurate streamflow projections because factors such as soil moisture, groundwater levels and late-season weather cloud the picture.
Karl Wetlaufer (NRCS), explaining the use of a Federal Snow Sampler, SnowEx, February 17, 2017.
Scientists and water managers, aware of the high stakes, began formally measuring the snowpack to make water forecasts more than a century ago. They selected key locations in the high country, plunged hollow metal tubes into the snow and weighed the extracted cores to calculate the water contentโa technique still used extensively today.
During the late 20th century, officials installed hundreds of automated stations across the Westโs watersheds as part of the SNOTEL network. These sites use โsnow pillowsโ to measure the weight of the overlying snow and estimate its water content. Forecasters then correlate these long-term snow records with historical streamflows to predict a basinโs water supply.
In the 21st century, airborne snow surveys have expanded rapidly. Aircraft equipped with lidarโa laser-based technologyโprecisely map the snow depth across entire watersheds while an onboard spectrometer scans the snowpackโs reflectivity. Snow depth is determined by subtracting lidar readings taken when snow is absent from those taken when snow is present. Scientists combine those measurements with estimates and observations of snow density to calculate the water content, known as the snow water equivalent.
Satellites also provide valuable data on the snowpack, especially its extent on the ground, but reliably measuring snow water equivalent from space remains elusive. Clouds and forests can also obscure or complicate a satelliteโs view.
Four ways scientists monitor the snowpack. Clockwise from upper left: a manual snow-course survey (California Department of Water Resources); an automated SNOTEL station (Mitch Tobin/The Water Desk); an illustration of a satellite carrying the MODIS instrument (NASA); and airborne mapping (NASA).
While technologies that estimate an entire watershedโs snowpack are on the rise, the recent hotspots study argues that water forecasters could gain crucial insights by targeting future monitoring at a limited set of locations.
The authors say these 62-acre hotspots not only are strong predictors of how much water will run off in the spring and summer, but also could be more cost-effective than mapping the snowpack across a whole watershed using aircraft. That approach has become more common due to the work of Airborne Snow Observatories, Inc. (ASO), a company that spun out of research at NASAโs Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
โThe greatest gains in water supply prediction come from leveraging existing stations and expanding snow measurements to the right places, rather than everywhere,โ the authors write in Communications Earth & Environment.
But in the tight-knit world of Western snow science, the paper has sparked pushback from supporters of airborne snow monitoring.
Jeff Deems, a co-founder of ASO, said the paper is a โstatistical curiosityโ and criticized both its methodology and the conclusions it draws about snowpack monitoring.
โOur datasets have become the gold standard, the benchmark against which others are evaluated,โ Deems said.
The Colorado Airborne Snow Measurement (CASM) program produced a strongly worded critique of the study, which used a proxy for the ASO data, rather than actual measurements from aircraft.
โAlthough this paper is published in a well-known journal, it makes unsupported, misleading and editorialized claims about the cost, value, and performance of airborne lidar for streamflow forecasting,โ said the rebuttal from CASM, a group of stakeholders whose planning team includes ASO, water providers, the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) and other organizations. โThe authors make a series of critical logic and analysis errors which when combined with their over-broad conclusions result in a very misleading paper.โ
But study co-author Cam Wobus wrote in an email that the paper โmight have struck a nerveโ because โit showed that wall to wall measurement of snow may not be needed to create more accurate water supply forecasts, which ASO could have perceived as a threat to their business model.โ
Despite the sharp differences among snow researchers, experts agree thereโs no silver bullet for monitoring the snowpack or predicting streamflows. As warming temperatures and evolving storm patterns continue to transform the snowpack, both old-school methods and newer technologies will be needed to better manage the regionโs scarce water resources.
โSnowpack estimation and streamflow forecasting is a vast and unsolved field of research,โ the CWCB wrote in response to questions from The Water Desk.
Although CWCBโs logo was included at the bottom of CASMโs rebuttal, the agency said in an email that the document โshould not be misconstrued as an official position statementโ and that โCWCB has acted as a funding and coordination partnerโ to CASM.
An airborne survey created this map of snow depth for Coloradoโs Maroon Bells on April 9, 2024. Source: ASO.
Searching for snowpack hotspots
The hotspots study set out to test an intuitive idea: in high-elevation watersheds, the snowpack in certain locations can be especially useful for predicting streamflow.
โThere are places within drainage basins that, if you train your water-supply forecast on the snow record in those locations, youโll have a better forecast than if you use the basin average,โ said co-author Eric Small, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder.
โIf you think about a drainage basin, thereโs going to be places in that drainage basin where thereโs not a lot of snow, or thereโs not much connection between the snowmelt and the runoff,โ Small said. โThereโs going to be other places in the basin where there is a lot of snow and a lot of connectivity between the snowmelt and the runoff. So it should not be a surprise that thereโs locations within a basin that are more predictive of this seasonal water supply.โ
In general, locations with the deepest, most persistent snow are more likely to be hotspots.
โAnyone whoโs seen a basin in Colorado and sees the south-facing slopes that are bare of snow and the north-facing slopes that have snow three feet deep in the springtime recognizes that once you take an average across all of that, the stuff on the south-facing slopes isnโt going to matter at all,โ said Wobus, a principal at CK Blueshift, LLC, a consulting firm that works on water and climate issues.
โItโs silly to fly an entire basin if 30% of that basin doesnโt have any snow on it, so thatโs an easy fix right there,โ Wobus said.
While hotspots typically accumulate lots of snow, whatโs happening beneath the snowpack is just as important. โThe hotspots are locations where thereโs both a lot of water, and when it melts, a large fraction of that water would get into the stream,โ Small said.
Hotspots tend to have shallow or relatively stable groundwater storage and soil moisture levels that donโt vary year to year.
โThe hotspots are places where thereโs either enough snow or minimal enough variations in storage that the water is getting to the stream and the water is getting to the stream at the right timescale,โ Small said.
Each basin may have numerous hotspots. โThe hotspots werenโt unicorns,โ Small said. โThere were many possible hotspots. We had an objective measure to choose the official hotspot in the paper, but you could have chosen many other locations that were also predictive.โ
Once a hotspot is identified, the authors outline several potential ways to tap its predictive power. One option is to add a new SNOTEL station at the site, although that may not be feasible because of the terrain or land protections. Another possibility is to use remote sensing from a plane or a drone. The authors write that one or two flight paths that observe the hotspot could gather data โat a substantially lower cost than more conventional wall-to-wall basin coverage.โ
Even recreationists could help gather data from snowpack hotspots. โYou could use citizen science to do it. You could send a bunch of backcountry skiers out to your location for fun, give them an app,โ Small said. โTheyโre probably already going there. If you saw where people were skiing, they would probably have mapped out the hotspots already.โ
Map: Mitch Tobin/The Water Desk โข Source: Natural Resources Conservation Service โข Created with Datawrapper
A shortcut, or a statistical trap?
Critics of the hotspots paper agree that some parts of a watershed can carry more predictive weight for streamflows than others.
โItโs not a new concept, and itโs a very seductive one. Itโs essentially the premise behind the SNOTEL network,โ Deems said.
But to some scientists who dispute the study, hotspots can hide as much as they revealโand potentially mislead water managers as the Westโs climate evolves and as the hydrology of high-country landscapes is reshaped by disturbances, such as the increasing frequency of wildfires.
โEven if they did everything rightโfound these hotspotsโthe likelihood of them retaining the same statistical predictive power going forward is essentially nil,โ Deems said.
The rebuttals to the paper have challenged both its analysis and the real-world implications the authors infer from their results.
Noah Molotch, a professor of geography at the University of Colorado Boulder and director of the Mountain Hydrology Group at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, said โthe study doesnโt accurately portray the direction that water managers have been moving for a couple of decades now.โ
โMy concern there is that it takes us further down the path of being blind to the spatial patterns that govern water supply and that can lead to surprises for water managers,โ Molotch said.
Although the hotspots study has implications for airborne snowpack monitoring, the paper didnโt analyze data gathered by aircraft, which has been collected only in select watersheds and over a shorter time period than the authors examined.
Instead, one of the ways the researchers probed the snowpack in 390 basins in the West was to combine satellite data from 2001 to 2023 with historical weather data. The satellite images, collected by the MODIS instruments aboard two NASA spacecraft, show the fraction of each pixel covered by snow and the reflectivity of the snowpack, among other metrics. Each pixel is a square with 500-meter (1,640-foot) edges.
The authors argue that this type of data serves as a reasonable โproxyโ for the basin-wide estimates that could be obtained from prospective satellite missions and current airborne monitoring. Small said five different datasets were examined, and all showed similar results.
But the CASM critique argues that the proxy dataset has โa demonstrated average error of 35% (ranging from 20-60%)โ when compared to airborne lidar, and its much coarser resolution further limits its utility.
The paperโs authors โmake the assertion that that dataset has been shown to be accurate and, in their language, therefore serves as a reliable proxy for airborne lidar,โ Deems said. โThat assertion is incorrect, and that undercuts the entire rest of the paper, sadly.โ
Deems said the study used the date of snow disappearance to back-calculate how much snow was there while also โblending in an atmospheric model precipitation product, which is highly uncertain.โ
By contrast, Deems said, ASO creates โa highly accurate map of snow depth throughout the watershed,โ which is then paired with estimates of snow density informed by SNOTEL measurements and hand-dug snow pits. What emerges, he said, is a basin-scale estimate of snow water equivalent thatโs within about 1% of the actual volume.
โThatโs better than we can measure streamflow,โ Deems said.
A video from Coloradoโs Northern Water explains how the utility uses ASO data.
Clashes over the merits of datasets are grist for the academic mill, but critics raise a broader concern: the paper takes a retrospective look at snowpack-streamflow relationships in an age of extreme weather and shifting baselines.
Scientists have an awkward name for this pivotal issue: โstationarity.โ In simple terms, itโs the assumption that the past is a reliable guide to the future. But just as mutual-fund disclaimers warn that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, climate change is making historical patterns less trustworthy.
Storm tracks are migrating. Warmer temperatures mean more winter rain and less snow. Rising evaporation rates are drying out soils. And both the timing and volume of runoff are in flux as the weather changes and high-elevation wildfires remake watersheds.
The hotspots strategy, according to the CASM rebuttal, โdoes not test whether those sites remain predictive under shifting climate conditions or extreme eventsโ and โwhat looks like a hotspot in the historical record may fail under current or future conditions.โ
What to do with hotspots?
On a practical level, the hotspots paper argues that snow researchers and water managers could mine these locations for essential data by installing additional SNOTEL stations or using remote sensing. But critics say several big hurdles stand in the way of implementation, many of which are acknowledged in the study.
First, a hotspot with 500-meter edges covers nearly 2.7 million square feet, but the snowpack may vary greatly within that footprint. Where in that area should a new SNOTEL monitoring station go? Cost is another concern. โInstalling and maintaining a station is not cheap eitherโ$100,000 easily between gear and personnel time and maintenance,โ Deems said.
Second, terrain and land-use rules can make installation impractical or illegal. โIn many cases, itโs going to be impossible to put a station there, either because itโs sloped and the snow pillows donโt work on slopes, or because itโs in the wilderness or in avalanche terrain or something like that,โ Deems said. Drone flightsโanother potential monitoring toolโare also prohibited in federal wilderness and face their own logistical challenges.
Third, any new station only generates data going forward. It doesnโt provide the long historical record that water managers need to train their models and make streamflow predictions. โItโs not going to be useful until you probably get about 30 years of data,โ Molotch said, โand then letโs think about how much the climate may have changed over those three decades.โ
The components in a typical SNOTEL station. Source: Natural Resources Conservation Service.
At its core, the dispute over hotspots reflects a long-standing divide in hydrology. One camp relies on statistically based approaches, such as using a select number of โindexโ sites to measure the snowpack and predict streamflow based on historical records. Another paradigm favors physically based methods that employ the laws of physics to account for the coming and going of water molecules in a basin, such as using aircraft to map the snowpack.
โHistorically, weโve increasingly been moving toward physically based approaches in hydrology,โ Molotch said. โAt some point, we may have a complete passing of the baton toward physically based approaches. I donโt know if and when that will be in our future, but I think that that is the way that things are migrating over time.โ
Small said that ASO data โwill give you the total number of water molecules in a basinโ if you accept their snow density model, but thatโs only part of the story. To predict streamflow, forecasters must account for other factors, including how much water is lost to the atmosphere when it evaporates, transpires from plants or converts directly from ice to water vapor, a process known as sublimation. Soil moisture and groundwater levels also shape the hydrologic cycle.
โThe total volume of water in the snowpack is not hugely predictive of streamflow compared to what you get from the hotspots, and that has to be the case,โ Small said. โIf you have any variations in the basin from evapotranspiration or soil moisture storage or groundwater storageโthat has to be the outcome. And I think we probably should have said that in the first sentence of the paper.โ
Using an โall of the aboveโ approach
Denver Water describes the snowpack in the mountains west of the city as the utilityโs biggest reservoir. To supply its 1.5 million customers, Denver Water uses a variety of techniques to track the snowpack, including manual measurements, automated SNOTEL stations, ASO flights above key watersheds and satellite data that is blended into reports that Molotch and colleagues generate at the University of Colorado Boulder.
โWe take an all of the above approach,โ said Taylor Winchell, climate change adaptation program lead at Denver Water. โWe think that all of these systems really have their place and are all important in giving us the full picture of the snowpack that weโre hoping to gather to help us make confident decisions.โ
Each type of snow monitoring has its benefits and limitations. โThey each fill a gap that the other doesnโt,โ Winchell said.
The SNOTEL system, for example, can provide hourly or daily readings of the snowpack and offers long historical records, but it only measures conditions at a single point. The stations also tend to sit in mid-elevation clearings that are easy to access, so they donโt necessarily reflect the diversity of the Westโs terrain and overlying snowpack.
โWe often donโt have measurements at those higher elevations, and it kind of leaves a blind spot in our understanding of the snowpack,โ Winchell said.ย
Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map December 28, 2025.
Like many water providers in the West, Denver Water has been grappling with a growing mismatch between snowpack levels and the amount of water that eventually reaches streams and rivers in the spring and summer.
โWe just donโt quite expect the same amount of streamflow production nowadays as we wouldโve historically with similar levels of snowpack,โ Winchell said, noting the influence of soil moisture levels, evaporation and sublimation. โWe canโt go off the same assumptions that we mightโve had in the past, and so every year it creates this kind of new and intensified challenge to understand how the snowpack is going to translate into streamflow.โ
Denver Water has used ASO data since 2019 and spent an average of about $200,000 per year on the airborne surveys. That first year, ASO surveyed the watershed around Dillon Reservoirโa linchpin in the utilityโs supply that collects runoff west of the Continental Divide so that it can be pumped through a 23-mile tunnel bored beneath the Rocky Mountains and reach the east side of the Divide, where most of Coloradoโs population lives.
โWith those flights, we saw kind of immediately the high value of this information for our decision-making processes,โ Winchell said. ASO found the snowpack was bigger than what Denver Water expected, Winchell said, so the utility โimmediately increased outflows from Dillon Reservoir so that weโd be able to capture that snowpack without flooding downstream of the reservoir.โ
ASOโs high-resolution data is valuable for Denver Water because it โfills in the gaps between those station measurements,โ Winchell said.
In the large watersheds that supply the utility, โyou can have storms and snow patterns that are quite different from one side of the watershed to the other, and you might have different diversion systems in each part of that watershed,โ Winchell said. โYou might have had a forest fire in one part of the watershed that impacts the snowmelt within that sub-watershed. So really being able to have that detailed picture of the full watershed, we do find value in that.โ
But the cost of airborne surveys remains a critical issue.
โItโs still been a struggle year over year to get the funding needed even to fly what we see as the baseline number of useful flights,โ Winchell said. โThereโs still a lot of room for both adding additional flights in watersheds that are already being flown, as well as conducting ASO flights in watersheds throughout the state that donโt currently have ASO flights.โ
Costs versus benefits
In Colorado, CASM was formed in part to secure additional funding to expand ASO flights above the state. CASMโs annual budget in 2025 was $4.5 million, with state funding accounting for 52% and the rest from federal, local and other sources.
The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed bipartisan legislation that would reauthorize and update the federal Snow Water Supply Forecasting Program โto incorporate modern technologies, including LiDAR and satellite imagery, to improve the accuracy of snowpack and water-supply predictions,โ according to sponsor Jeff Hurd, R-Colo.
Backers of airborne surveys acknowledge that flights arenโt cheapโtwo flights over a basin can cost a couple of hundred thousand dollars per yearโbut they say the data can generate far greater benefits. A more precise read on the snowpack can prevent flooding and allow water managers to devote excess supplies to groundwater recharge. Conversely, advance warning of shortages can help avoid disruptions for both agricultural and urban water users.
โThe value of these data can be off the charts,โ Deems said, with some case studies from California showing a return on investment between 50 and 200 to one.
In the headwaters of Northern Californiaโs Feather River, which supplies the California State Water Project, Deems said ASOโs data improved water management. In 2021, the year before ASOโs flights began, water managers โthought they had a decent snowpack,โ Deems said, but they had to dramatically scale back allocations, eventually to zero, โbecause the water just didnโt show up,โ causing significant impacts to farmers and other water users.
โThe following year, we started flying in the Feather River,โ Deems said. โOur February flight showed that they had half the water they thought they had, so it looked like essentially a repeat of the prior year, except this time they knew about it in February, rather than finding out about it when the water didnโt show up at the stream gauge in July.โ
Dillon Reservoir supplies water to Denver and releases water into the Blue River which feeds into the Colorado River.
The future of snowpack monitoring
Looking ahead, the stakes are only growing for snowpack monitoring and streamflow forecasting as the climate warms and the West continues to add new water users.
Despite their varying views, snow experts agree that a diversity of approaches will be needed in the foreseeable future. The hotspots study authors see value in the ASO flights, and backers of airborne surveys would like to see more SNOTEL stations.
โWe are first in line to advocate for more observations, especially if they can be in environments that are different than the current set of observations covers,โ Deems said.
The question, Wobus said, is โhow do we use combinations of advanced monitoring technologies like lidar and satellite observations and things like that in a framework that will help you improve water supply forecasts without having to measure everything?โ
โThereโs a lot of room to improve the economics of snow monitoring,โ Wobus said. โIf weโre talking about the difference between flying every basin once a year and getting total coverage at a cost of, letโs say $10 million a year for the state of Colorado, versus adding a few more SNOTEL stations in a few places where you really need itโthereโs a lot of real estate in between those two things.โ
Left to right, Jack Hannaford, Robert Miller, Chief of the Snow Survey Office for the California Department of Water Resources and helicopter pilot Harry Rodgers conduct the monthly snow survey near Loon Lake reservoir in the Eldorado National Forest in El Dorado County. A helicopter was used to access the remote location in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Photo taken March 9, 1960. Vince R. Arrant / California Department of Water Resources
When ASO maps the snowpack in an entire basin, its aircraft flies back and forth in a pattern often likened to mowing a lawn. Small and Wobus said that one way to save money would be to do more limited flights and use machine learningโa type of artificial intelligenceโto extrapolate the results.
โIf you fly one strip and combine that with a machine-learning model, you can get like 98% of the way there, and you can save a whole boatload of money,โ Wobus said. โYou could just fly a straight line across the state of Colorado and then turn around and fly back and get almost as much information as youโre getting by flying like a lawnmower back and forth across the basin.โ
But some backers of airborne mapping are skeptical.
โThat would be bringing a lack of confidence back into the system, and thatโs a difficult thing to ask a water manager to accept, especially after weโve shown whatโs possible,โ Deems said.
Drones have also become part of snow hydrologistsโ toolbox. While the hotspots paper argues that using lidar technology mounted on drones would be less costly than flying large aircraft, that approach โdoes not reflect the logistical and financial realities of operating such a program in Coloradoโs mountain environments,โ according to CWCB.
โDrone-based lidar systems require extensive permitting, frequent flights due to limited range and battery life, and highly trained operators to meet accuracy standards comparable to crewed aircraft,โ CWCB wrote. โNo program currently exists with the resources, planning, or data management structure to deploy drone surveys at the basin scale needed for operational water forecasting.โ
For many snow hydrologists, the holy grail would be to launch a dedicated satellite that could look down from space and estimate the water content of the snowpack around the planet using, for example, microwave sensors. But thatโs literally a heavy lift.
โThereโs lots in the works,โ Deems said. โBut the global solution is pretty elusive, and folks have been trying to do this for decades.โ
The technology exists today to measure snow water equivalent with a satellite, โbut not everywhere and not all the time,โ Molotch said. One major obstacle is that satellite monitoring may not work when the snowpack is wet, which is especially vexing in the warmer, maritime snowpacks near the West Coast.
โSnowpack conditions in the Sierra Nevada of California can be wet at any time of year between storms when the sunโs out and it starts to warm up,โ Molotch said. โAs the climate warms, we would expect that snow wetness will be increasingly problematic for microwave remote-sensing techniques. But I think on the positive side, if weโre able to make snow water equivalent measurements in some locations, that helps us provide information for models that can fill in the gaps.โ
In July, NASA and Indiaโs space agency launched NISAR, a new radar satellite built to track how Earthโs surface is evolving. While not dedicated to monitoring the snowpack, the mission will measure changes in snow, glaciers, sea ice, ice sheets and permafrost. Operating day or night, NISARโs signals can penetrate clouds, and the satellite will observe nearly the entire Earthโs surface twice every 12 days.
Illustration of the new NISAR satellite. Spacecraft hold promise for measuring the Westโs snowpack but face challenges of their own. Source: NASA.
The NISAR mission โintroduces a promising avenue for cost-effective, large-scale snow depth and snow water equivalentโ estimates, according to a January study in Frontiers in Remote Sensing. A 2024 paper in Geophysical Research Letters concluded that NISAR offers a โpromising path toward global snowpack monitoring.โ While errors increase in forests with a denser canopy, the 2024 study said the satellite โmay be feasible for snowpack monitoring in sparse to moderate forest cover.โ
What research and data would deepen understanding of the snowpack in the future?
โWhere to begin?โ Winchell said with a laugh.
In addition to having more manual measurements, more SNOTEL stations, more ASO flights and even a citizen-science effort, Winchell said better knowledge of snowpack temperatures would be helpful to Denver Water because that โprovides a really strong indication of when the snowpack is ready to melt.โ Additional soil moisture data could also improve the utilityโs forecasts of how the snowpack translates into streamflows.
โThe field of snowpack research is just a crucial field with really lots of exciting work ahead, especially as these new, really high-value, high-accuracy datasets are coming into play,โ Winchell said. โI think decades into the future weโll wonder how people really went about managing the snowpack water supplies without this information.โ
Aerial view of the Rocky Mountain snowpack over central Colorado on Dec. 3, 2024. Photo by Mitch Tobin/The Water Desk.
This story was produced and distributed by The Water Desk at the University of Colorado Boulderโs Center for Environmental Journalism.
Editorโs note: Two of the co-authors of the hotspots paper and one of the critics of the study are affiliated with the University of Colorado Boulder. The Water Desk is also based at the University of Colorado Boulder but operates as an editorially independent journalism initiativeand is solely responsible for its content.
About 60% of Iowaโs power comes from wind. Farmers can earn extra cash by leasing small sections of farms for power production. Bill Clark/Getty Images
Drive through the plains of Iowa or Kansas and youโll see more than rows of corn, wheat and soybeans. Youโll also see towering wind turbines spinning above fields and solar panels shining in the sun on barns and machine sheds.
For many farmers, these are lifelines. Renewable energy provides steady income and affordable power, helping farms stay viable when crop prices fall or drought strikes.
Wind energy is a significant economic driver in rural America. In Iowa, for example, over 60% of the stateโs electricity came from wind energy in 2024, and the state is a hub for wind turbine manufacturing and maintenance jobs.
For landowners, wind turbines often mean stable lease payments. Those historically were around US$3,000 to $5,000 per turbine per year, with some modern agreements $5,000 to $10,000 annually, secured through 20- to 30-year contracts.
Nationwide, wind and solar projects contribute about $3.5 billion annually in combined lease payments and state and local taxes, more than a third of it going directly to rural landowners.
States throughout the Great Plains and Midwest, from Texas to Montana to Ohio, have the strongest onshore winds and onshore wind power potential. These are also in the heart of U.S. farm country. The map shows wind speeds at 100 meters (nearly 330 feet), about the height of a typical land-based wind turbine. NREL
These figures are backed by long-term contracts and multibillionโdollar annual contributions, reinforcing the economic value that turbines bring to rural landowners and communities.
Wind farms also contribute to local tax revenues that help fund rural schools, roads and emergency services. In counties across Texas, wind energy has become one of the most significant contributors to local property tax bases, stabilizing community budgets and helping pay for public services as agricultural commodity revenues fluctuate.
In Oldham County in northwest Texas, for example, clean energy projects provided 22% of total county revenues in 2021. In several other rural counties, wind farms rank among the top 10 property taxpayers, contributing between 38% and 69% of tax revenue.
The construction and operation of these projects also bring local jobs in trucking, concrete work and electrical services, boosting small-town businesses.
A wind turbine technician stands on the nacelle, which houses the gear box and generator of a wind turbine, on the campus of Mesalands Community College in Tucumcari, N.M., in 2024. Colleges in other states, including Texas, also developed training programs for technicians in recent years as jobs in the industry boomed. Andrew Marszal/AFP via Getty Images
The U.S. wind industry supports over 300,000 U.S. jobs across construction, manufacturing, operations and other roles connected to the industry, according to the American Clean Power Association.
Solar energy is also boosting farm finances. Farmers use rooftop panels on barns and ground-mounted systems to power irrigation pumps, grain dryers and cold storage facilities, cutting their power costs.
Some farmers have adopted agrivoltaics โ dual-use systems that grow crops beneath solar panels. The panels provide shade, helping conserve water, while creating a second income path. These projects often cultivate pollinator-friendly plants, vegetables such as lettuce and spinach, or even grasses for grazing sheep, making the land productive for both food and energy.
Federal grants and tax credits that were significantly expanded under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act helped make the upfront costs of solar installations affordable.
However, the federal spending bill signed by President Donald Trump on July 4, 2025, rolled back many clean energy incentives. It phases down tax credits for distributed solar projects, particularly those under 1 megawatt, which include many farmโscale installations, and sunsets them entirely by 2028. It also eliminates bonus credits that previously supported rural and lowโincome areas.
Without these credits, the upfront cost of solar power could be out of reach for some farmers, leaving them paying higher energy costs. At a 2024 conference organized by the Institute of Sustainability, Energy and Environment at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, where I work as a research economist, farmers emphasized the importance of tax credits and other economic incentives to offset the upfront cost of solar power systems.
Whatโs being lost
The cuts to federal incentives include terminating the Production Tax Credit for new projects placed in service after Dec. 31, 2027, unless construction begins by July 4, 2026, and is completed within a tight time frame. The tax credit pays eligible wind and solar facilities approximately 2.75 cents per kilowatt-hour over 10 years, effectively lowering the cost of renewable energy generation. Ending that tax credit will likely increase the cost of production, potentially leading to higher electricity prices for consumers and fewer new projects coming online.
The changes also accelerate the phaseโout of wind power tax credits. Projects must now begin construction by July 4, 2026, or be in service before the end of 2027 to qualify for any credit.
Meanwhile, the Investment Tax Credit, which covers 30% of installed cost for solar and other renewables, faces similar limits: Projects must begin by July 4, 2026, and be completed by the end of 2027 to claim the credits. The bill also cuts bonuses for domestic components and installations in rural or lowโincome locations. These adjustments could slow new renewable energy development, particularly smaller projects that directly benefit rural communities.
While many existing clean energy agreements will remain in place for now, the rollback of federal incentives threatens future projects and could limit new income streams. It also affects manufacturing and jobs in those industries, which some rural communities rely on.
Renewable energy also powers rural economies
Renewable energy benefits entire communities, not just individual farmers.
Wind and solar projects contribute millions of dollars in tax revenue. For example, in Howard County, Iowa, wind turbines generated $2.7 million in property tax revenue in 2024, accounting for 14.5% of the countyโs total budget and helping fund rural schools, public safety and road improvements.
In some rural counties, clean energy is the largest new source of economic activity, helping stabilize local economies otherwise reliant on agricultureโs unpredictable income streams. These projects also support rural manufacturing โ such as Iowa turbine blade factories like TPI Composites, which just reopened its plant in Newton, and Siemens Gamesa in Fort Madison, which supply blades for GE and Siemens turbines. The tax benefits in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act helped boost those industries โ and the jobs and local tax revenue they bring in.
As rural America faces economic uncertainty and climate pressures, I believe homegrown renewable energy offers a practical path forward. Wind and solar arenโt just fueling the grid; theyโre helping keep farms and rural towns alive.
The past several weeks have felt more like an extension of fall rather than the beginning of winter in Colorado. While the warmth has been a welcome reprieve to the winter-loathers, it has been accompanied by dry conditions that have brought worsening drought, poor snowpack, and fire danger. In this post, weโll look back at some recent trends weโve been watching and provide a look forward at what we might expect as we head into the start of 2026.
Snowpack and snowfall
Weโll kick off the post with a late December snowpack check-in. Unfortunately for CO (and the West more broadly), there is little good news to report. Looking at percent of 30-year average (1991-2020) snow water equivalent (SWE), a fundamental snowpack metric, shows all of Coloradoโs river basins running much below average as of December 18. Conditions are similarly poor throughout the state, with all major river basins sitting between 54% to 63% of their normal snowpack.
Percent of 30-year (1991-2020) average snowpack for Coloradoโs river basins as of December 18. [Source: NRCS]
While basin-wide percentages are similar across the state, there are some particularly concerning numbers across the stateโs northern basins. There, several SNOTEL stations are currently reporting their lowest or second-lowest snowpack on record. While itโs worth noting that several of these sites have relatively short record periods (~22 years) compared to others in the SNOTEL database, there are some stations with 40+ year records that are reporting record or near-record low values for this time in the winter. Even though a major portion of the snow accumulation is still ahead of us, with more dry weather in the forecast (more on that below), that is all bad news from a water perspective.
Image: SNOTEL stations reporting their lowest (red) or second-lowest (orange) period of record snow water equivalent (SWE). The station circled in purple is Joe Wright Reservoir, and a time series for SWE at that station is shown in the following image. [Source: NRCS]
Historical and current (black line) snow water equivalent at Joe Wright Reservoir (records date back to 1979). [Source: NRCS]
Across the lower elevations, snow is also in short supply. Boulder and Denver each saw their latest and 2nd-latest first snows on record at the tail-end of November. And so far, the Front Range Urban Corridor has only seen one shovel-able snowstorm this winter (that happened on Dec. 3). Aside from those two events, Front Range flakes have been few and far between, as warm temperatures have often favored rain over snow (though liquid precipitation has also been in short supply). And further east on the Plains, many have yet to see their first flakes.
Record-setting temperatures
Above-normal temperatures have been a familiar story throughout autumn and early winter. Fall 2025 (September-November) was the 4th warmest on record, and much of that abnormal heat can be attributed to November (ranked the 3rd-warmest on record for Colorado according to NOAA NCEI). No areas of the state were spared from the unusually warm temperatures, but the heat was most notable along the West Slope, where some locations saw their warmest fall on record.
September-November 2025 temperature rank amongst pervious falls (131 years of data). [Data from NCEI]
Mid-December has offered little relief from the record-setting heat, with widespread daily records in all corners of the state several days in mid-December. Here in Fort Collins, we notched our warmest 7-day December period on record over December 9-15. Denver recorded 9 straight days of temperatures exceeding 60ยฐF, the 2nd-longest December streak of 60ยฐF+ days on record (h/t to Chris Bianchi). December temperatures so far are running above average nearly everywhere in Colorado, exceeding 8-10ยฐF (or more) above average in some parts of the state.
Left: Daily record high temperatures set on December 12. [Data from ACIS] Right: Departure from normal temperature for December 1-18, 2025. [Source: HPRCC]
Drought
The worst drought in the state continue to be in western Colorado, though conditions have begun to worsen in other parts of the state. A notable precipitation event just before Thanksgiving prevented drought from worsening in western and southwestern Colorado, and some locations even saw some minor drought improvements according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The story is quite different if you look at north-central Colorado, however. A very dry November led to worsening drought conditions for areas that were previously drought-free. Degradations have also occurred across south-central Colorado. As of December 16, ~36% of the state is experiencing drought. That is up from ~29% at the start of November.
Left: U.S. Drought Monitor Change Map showing drought degradations (yellow/orange) and improvements (green) from November 4 to December 16. Right: U.S. Drought Monitor as of December 16, 2025. [Source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu]
Warm and dry conditions have been accompanied by high wildfire risk. Strong winds coupled with the lack of precipitation and snow-free ground cover in the Foothills has brought favorable fire weather conditions throughout this past week. On December 17, downslope winds produced severe wind gusts in excess of 100 mph. A cold front later in the day pushed gusty winds across the Eastern Plains,ย fanning several firesย near Yuma that were ignited by downed power lines. Exceptionally dry and windy conditions returned on December 19, prompting the NWS in Boulder issued its first-ever Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning on December 19, a descriptor reserved only for the most severe fire risk days. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center also included parts of the Front Range Foothills and Urban Corridor in an โextremely criticalโ risk area in theirย Fire Weather Outlook, which is uncommon to see anywhere in Colorado (no more than a few of those forecasts are issued statewide each year), but they are exceptionally rare during the wintertime. Forecast products aside, fire season is year-round for Coloradoโs lower elevations, as was underscored by the devastation brought by theย Marshall Fire in December 2021.
Smoke from a small grass fire near the CSU Foothills campus on December 18.
Outlook
Looking ahead at the rest of December, there is high confidence that above-normal temperatures will persist across Colorado. The 8-14 Day NOAA Climate Prediction Center Outlook shows a 70-80% chance that temperatures will be above average during the final week of 2025. For precipitation, it is likely that a series of atmospheric rivers will make landfall along the West Coast throughout the last couple of weeks of December. While impacts will be greatest for the coastal states, global numerical weather prediction models indicate that these events will bring increased moisture to Colorado, especially the western part of the state. As a result, the CPC shows elevated chances for above-normal precipitation over Western Colorado during the December 26-January 1 period, which is welcome news from a drought and snowpack perspective. Current forecast model data shows that precipitation chances over the next two weeks diminish as you head further east across Colorado, and the CPC suggests that below-normal precipitation is favored for the 8-14 day period over the far eastern part of the state.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for temperature (left) and precipitation (right) for the next 8-14 days (December 27-January 2).
Looking further ahead towards the seasonal outlook for January-March, precipitation and temperature outlooks are less certain. The CPC outlook for the first three months of 2026 shows increased likelihood for above-average temperatures in Southwest Colorado and equal chances for above- or below-normal temperatures elsewhere. In terms of precipitation, the January outlook has Colorado sitting between increased chances of wetter than normal conditions over the Northwest U.S. and increased chances of drier than normal conditions over the Southwest U.S, highlighting uncertainty in what the rest of winter will bring. This pattern in the outlook is reflective ofย a typical wintertime La Niรฑa setup, which usually situates Colorado between dry conditions to the south and wet conditions to the north (though results found in ourย Climate Change in Colorado Reportย suggest La Niรฑa correlates with wetter conditions over the Northern Mountains, making the recent snowpack numbers even more concerning). La Niรฑa conditions are expected to persist into early 2026 andย are forecasted to shift towards the ENSO neutral phaseย sometime in late winter or early spring.ย
NOAA Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for temperature (left) and precipitation (right) for January 2026.
Relationships between winter (left) and spring (right) precipitation and ENSO phase. Areas in red tend to be wetter during El Niรฑo, while areas in blue tend to be wetter during La Niรฑa. [From the 2023 Climate Change in Colorado Report]
Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map December 28, 2025.
Click the link to read the article on the Summit Daily website (Ryan Spencer). Here’s an excerpt:
December 27, 2025
Leadville, Breckenridge, Keystone and Aspen all experienced small amounts of rain on Christmas Day, according to the National Weather Service
Across Colorado, this Christmas holiday was not particularly white, as many mountain towns saw small amounts of rain, record-high temperatures and a record-low snowpack. As of Dec. 25, Coloradoโs statewide snowpack stood at just 3.2 inches of snow-water equivalent and had reached the zeroth percentile, or its lowest point in at least the past 30 years, according to the U.S. Department of Agricultureโs snowpack telemetry, or SNOTEL, system.
โThe winter of 1976-77 is generally thought to be the worst snow year in our mountains but the SNOTEL network wasnโt built out yet at that point, so itโs hard to make direct comparisons,โ Colorado Climatologist Russ Schumacher said. โBut the fact that weโre even in the same conversation with that winter is not good news.โ
Out of the 94 SNOTEL stations in Colorado with at least 20 years of data, 22 of them were at a record-low snowpack on Christmas Day, and 10 were at their second-lowest snowpack on record, Schumacher said. He noted that warm temperatures and a lack of storms throughout December has not helped the stateโs snowpack. Temperatures over the Christmas holiday were approximately 15 to 25 degrees above normal across the mountains, National Weather Service Grand Junction Office meteorologist Braeden Winters said Friday. The streak of unseasonably warm weather began toward the beginning of December and continued to get warmer through the holiday period…Rather than white, fluffy flakes for Christmas, Coloradoโs mountain towns โ including Leadville, at 10,154 feet, Breckenridge at 9,600, Keystone at 9,280 feet and Aspen at 7,891 feet โย experienced light rain and mixed precipitation on Thursday.
The Colorado River Water Users Association annual conference met in Las Vegas [December 16-18, 2025]. Each year, over a thousand government officials, members of the press, municipal water district leaders, water engineers, ranchers, and tribal members meet to discuss the management of the mighty Colorado River. Hanging over the three-day conference was a stalemate between the upper and lower basin states over how to manage the Colorado River after current operational guidelines expire at the end of 2026.
Throughout the conference, the statesโ inability to reach a consensus deal produced ripple effects. The stalemate held back progress on both near term shortage concerns (experts predict that Lake Powell will be only 28% full at the end of the โ25-โ26 water year) and long-range planning, such as the development of the next โMinuteโ agreement between the United States and Mexico.
The closing act of CRWUA 2025 was an orderly (and familiar) report from each of the basin statesโ principal negotiators that their state is stretched thin but remains committed to finding a consensus agreement. This final session had no discussion or Q&A. The basin states now have until February 14th to provide the Bureau of Reclamation with their consensus deal, which would presumably be added to an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) draft that is expected to be released in early January. With time running short, many worry that public participation in the EIS process โ vital to informed decision-making โ will be greatly reduced.
Still, as Rhett Larson of Arizona State University said on the first day of the conference, โDesert rivers bring people together.โ Tribal governments continue to innovate in the areas of conservation and storage, even in spite of ongoing challenges to meaningful access of federally reserved tribal water rights. For instance, the Colorado River Indian Tribes, or CRIT, shared news of a Resolution and Water Code recently passed by their Tribal Council which work together to recognize the Colorado Riverโs personhood under Tribal law. This provides CRIT with a holistic framework for on-reservation use and requires the consideration of the living nature of the Colorado River in off-reservation water leasing decisions. John Bezdek, who represented CRIT at the conference, put it this way: โIf laws are an expression of values, then this tribal council is expressing to the world the importance of protecting and preserving the lifeblood of the Colorado River.โ Among others, Celene Hawkins of The Nature Conservancy and Kate Ryan of the Colorado Water Trust also shared about the unique, and often unlikely, partnerships formed to protect stream flows and the riparian environment across the Colorado River basin.
Notwithstanding the basin statesโ current deadlock, one theme rang true at CRWUA 2025: Despite the dire hydrologic and administrative realities facing decision-makers today, the Colorado River continues to bring unlikely parties together.
Left to right: Becky Mitchell, Tom Buschatzke, Brandon Gebhart, John Entsminger, Keith Burron, Gene Shawcroft, JB Hamby, Estevan Lรณpez. Photo credit: Yes To Tap via X (Twitter)
The single most important gathering of Colorado River Basin officials came and went โ with no significant announcements regarding the often frustrating yet crucial seven-state negotiations for how to divvy up the river over the next 20 years…Here are three takeaways as the states wrestle with basinwide overuse of water, declining river flows due to a warming world and how to meet the federal governmentโs Valentineโs Day deadline for a consensus-based deal.
States far from deal โ with less than 60 days left
Unlike last yearโs conference, the seven states agreed to sit on a panel that was added to the agenda for the last day. The ballroom was still packed for the early morning session. Thatโs because the stakes are high for states to meet Burgumโs Feb. 14 deadline for a seven-state agreement. Should they not deliver one, Burgum could intervene and states are likely to sue. The Lower Basin states have agreed to shoulder the brunt of a massive deficit the system faces that totals 1.5 million acre-feet, or almost 489 billion gallons. However, the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming say they donโt have more water to give should cuts in their jurisdictions become necessary. Conflicts exist with state laws, too…
Temporary deal could be on the table to avoid courtroom
Nevadaโs governor-appointed negotiator, John Entsminger, spoke last on the panel and called out the other six states for failing to cede any ground on further conservation in their remarks. Without some compromise from each state on these long-standing arguments, the negotiations are โgoing nowhere,โ he said. While the states have been expected up until this point to deliver a 20-year deal, Entsminger suggested on the panel that a temporary, five-year deal could be on the table to comply with the Feb. 14 deadline.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall
Poor outlook sending shockwaves throughout basin
The underlying issues of the Colorado River are making this moment much more precarious. Several experts presented a dismal picture for the system at large. Carly Jerla, senior water resource program manager at the Bureau of Reclamation, said the agencyโs most recent projections place flows into Lake Powell anywhere between 44 percent to 73 percent of average this upcoming year. And since 2006, that replenishment of the reservoir has declined about 15 percent because of poor snow years, evaporative losses and more…
The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson
Jack Schmidt, who leads the Center for Colorado River Studies at Utah State University, has published several papers this year alongside a group of experts throughout the basin. By his estimation, should snowpack in the Rocky Mountains fail to impress again this winter, water managers may be blowing through a crucial buffer that ensures water can be released from Lake Powell into Lake Mead โ and that hydropower generation can continue.
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
Jennifer Kay has a message for the skies above Colorado: โLet it snow.โ
Kay is an atmospheric scientist who, in her free time, likes to go cross-country skiing in the Rocky Mountains.
But this year, the seasonโs typical white-out blizzards havenโt arrived.
Denver didnโt get its first snowโa wimpy dusting of just 0.2 inchesโuntil Nov. 29, the second latest first snow on record. Temperatures around the Front Range have also been downright balmy, drawing close to or even setting record highs.
Could the late start to the winter be a bad omen for Coloradoโs ski industry and its future water supplies?
Kay weighs in on the question from CU Boulderโs East Campus with a view of the Flatiron Mountains behind her. Theyโre almost completely dry, with almost none of the sprinkling of white that usually marks them this time of year.
She says itโs not time to panicโyet.
โIt’s also really early in the season still, so people shouldnโt be too worried about whatโs going to happen with the ski season or water,โ says Kay, a fellow at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at CU Boulder. โThere are still a lot of different ways this season could unfold.โ
In 2021, for example, Denver didnโt see its first snow until Dec. 10 (the latest on record). But snowfall totals inched closer to normal in the months that followed.
Kays says itโs not possible to predict how much snow will come to Colorado in an individual winter season months ahead of time.
A lot of that stems from a phenomenon known as the jet stream. Thatโs the name for a narrow band in the atmosphere above North America where winds reach tremendous speeds, sometimes over 250 miles per hour. When this band hovers above Colorado, it tends to bring big, rumbling storms to the state.
โWhen the jet stream brings storms to us, we get…a lot of wet, snowy days,โ Kay said. โIf the jet stream goes another direction, maybe to the north or south of us, we donโt get as many snowstorms.โ
But, she adds, any number of complex factors can make the jet stream wiggle from month to monthโalthough meteorologists can often predict what the jet stream will do several days in advance.
Recently, the jet stream has stuck mostly to the north of Colorado, crossing over states like Montana and the Dakotas.
This yearโs less-than-snowy winter has Kay thinking about what the future may hold.
With warming, she says, many storms that might normally produce snow may instead bring rain. That could have a wide range of consequences for the state.
Marshall Fire December 30, 2021. Photo credit: Boulder County
A thick blanket of snow on the ground, for example, can keep wildfires from starting and spreading. The Marshall Fire, which devastated parts of Boulder County in December 2021, erupted at a time when the ground was relatively dry, and winds were especially fierce.
Kay believes itโs important for Coloradans to prepare themselves for hotter and dryer weather.
She lives in Boulder and keeps a go-bag packed at all times, even during the winter months. It includes a change of clothes, important documents, chargers for electronic devices and contact information for her neighbors.
โI have already adapted to the reality of more fires as we get hotter and drier in Colorado,โ she says. โUnderstanding what’s happening around you and having a plan for extreme events like the strong wind events we have along the Front Range is important.โ
Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map December 28, 2025.
Colorado snowpack basin-filled map December 28, 2025.
A private development company is investing $150 million in an ambitious plan to harvest groundwater lying beneath sprawling northern Colorado ranches to serve fast-growing towns along the Interstate 25 corridor.
FrontRange H2O, backed by a Texas oil and real estate company, is behind the venture. The firm has been operating in Colorado for more than 20 years, treating and delivering wastewater from oil wells for oil industry reuse on the West Slope, and overseeing extensive real estate holdings in Denver and elsewhere, according to Brent Waller, who is president of the Loveland-based company.
โWe were recycling produced water before it was cool,โ Waller said. Produced water describes wastewater that is generated through oil production.
Experts say the large-scale, private urban water development is the first of its kind in Colorado and could help thirsty towns like Fort Collins and Loveland shore up their water systems.
But others worry that the privatization of water in the state could lead to price hikes and might also, because of its reliance on nonrenewable groundwater, undermine the stateโs future water security.
Still, Front Range H20 believes its system will deliver water at less cost and sooner than other government-backed projects.
Until now, Colorado communities have relied on water that is captured, stored and treated by public, nonprofit water utilities, such as Denver Water. The agency is an independent entity governed by commissioners who are appointed by the Denver mayor. In other cases, cities operate their own water systems. Public entities such as these are required by law to regulate water rates, to issue bonds to finance their work, and they are subject to oversight by elected or appointed bodies.
But FrontRange H2O is a private company that is using millions of dollars in private financing to secure the water rights, obtain state permission to drill the groundwater wells, and to build a water treatment system and pipeline to carry the water. Although it must obtain state permission to drill the wells and build the water treatment plant, it is not subject to the same public oversight as a public government system would be.
โThis kind of thing is common in Texas and Arizona, particularly with groundwater, but it is unique in Colorado,โ said Adam Jokerst, Rocky Mountain regional director for WestWater Research, based in Fort Collins. Jokerst is a groundwater expert who has consulted with Front Range H2O on its northern Colorado plans.
FrontRange H2O refers to its current project as VitaH2O. Nine wells drilled into the aquifer are expected to generate up to 5,000 acre-feet of water initially, Waller said. An acre foot equals nearly 326,000 gallons of water and is eough to serve to two to four urban households for one year. The waterย will be treated at a new plant north of Nunn and then delivered down to Cobb Lake, a reservoir owned by the Fort Collins-Loveland Water District, or FCLWD.
The district was in the news earlier this year when it opted out of a large-scale water and reservoir project run by Northern Water known as NISP, the Northern Integrated Supply Project. It will instead partner with VitaH2O.
Typical water well
As the project moves forward, Waller said FCLWD will contribute an additional $150 million to help complete the new water supply project. Chris Pletcher, general manager of FCLWD, declined an interview request. The water district was NISPโs largest customer and was on track to pay $400 million to help build the giant system.
Colorado derives most of its water supplies from melting snows that fill its streams and rivers, but large swaths of the state, including Douglas County, rely heavily on wells drilled deep into aquifers, many of which are not recharged through rain and snow.
As the state grows, the pressure to tap these nonrenewable waters is growing as well.
According to the Colorado Division of Water Resources, interest in drilling high producing groundwater wells in northern Colorado is growing.
โThere has been more activity in this area in the last 10 years,โ said Tracy Kosloff, deputy state engineer at Coloradoโs Division of Water Resources.
Major players in the area include Front Range H2O and the city of Greeley, among others.
The interest in nonrenewable groundwater worries people like Steve Boand, a former Douglas County commissioner and water consultant who has watched his regionโs nonrenewable groundwater supplies shrink as they are used by fast-growing towns like Parker and Castle Rock.
Any project that relies on nonrenewable groundwater is problematic, Boand said.
โIn general, sustainable water supplies are the preferred source,โ Boand said, noting that Douglas County water providers are spending hundreds of millions of dollars to recycle water and tap rivers and streams to wean themselves off nonrenewable groundwater. Their hope is, eventually, to use their aquifers only in drought years when surface supplies are scarce.
And that is part of the plan with VitaH2O, Waller said. The project will use surface supplies that the Fort Collins-Loveland district already owns to recharge the aquifers they plan to withdraw water from, in hopes that the treated water being pumped back into the ground in wet years will extend the life of the nonrenewable aquifers.
Under Colorado water law, groundwater can be drilled by whomever owns the land above the aquifer, but they must demonstrate that they are extracting water gradually and must prove it will last at least 100 years.
Waller said he believes the surface supplies that VitaH2O will inject back into the aquifers in wet years will extend the life of the system beyond 100 years, to 300 years or more.
The location of the wellfield as seen in a PDF provided by the Vita H20 Project.
East of Wallerโs development, the city of Greeley has already invested $85 million in developing an aquifer system under the Terry Ranch that will supply water in drought years and will also store treated water, according to Sean Chambers, Greeleyโs director of water and sewer utilities.
โWhat you are seeing now is a new approach to diversifying surface water supplies with this deep aquifer, nonrenewable groundwater โฆ and there is a rush on that,โ Chambers said.
Looming in the background is Northern Waterโs NISP project. It was originally designed to serve 15 entities, but three have already pulled out, including the largest, the Fort Collins-Loveland district. Waller said he is in talks with several other communities, including Wellington and Eaton, who are looking for an alternative to the costly $2.7 billion NISP, which will rely on renewable water supplies from the Poudre and South Platte rivers.
Brad Wind, general manager of Northern Water, said NISPโs growing cost is prompting long-time supporters to rethink their participation and that some will inevitably go with other providers, such as VitaH2O.
โPeople have some hard choices to make,โ Wind said.
How much water is available to be mined from these aquifers isnโt clear yet, though developers such as Waller and Greeley have invested heavily in doing the hydrological analysis that gives them an estimate of what is available.
But overuse is a major concern and Chambers says that is a key issue the city is addressing as it develops its system.
โCollectively we will have to find ways over time to make sure that northern Colorado and other communities that rely on this water donโt just mine it to extinction โฆ Greeley goes into this effort with our eyes very wide open about that,โ Chambers said.
โThis is a resource that should last for 10 generations or longer and provide a runway for public officials to figure out how to build resilience into all of our sources of supply,โ he said.
Boand isnโt convinced that the recharge technologies and state rules designed to make the water last longer are going to be enough to protect the aquifers.
โRecharge has been somewhat successful but everybody has talked about it as if it is the great salvation, even though it is very much in the testing phase,โ Boand said. โAnd it takes the same attention to detail that running a nuclear power plant takes โฆ lots of engineers and lots of scientists.โ
Another concern with having a private company develop a major public water supply is the stability of the company and the water system if the company should fail.
Waller says his companyโs contracts provide protection for that possibility.
โIf we go belly up, five years or 10 years down the road, the water districts and participants have the right to step in and take over the system. There are controls in place,โ Waller said. They expect to deliver water in the first quarter of 2029.
As with most new water projects, developers go through a special court review where they must prove their water estimates are accurate and that their water use wonโt harm others. Waller said his companyโs water court application was filed in October.
And it is being closely watched.
Chambers, with the city of Greeley, is concerned that the VitaH2O project may impact the Terry Ranch project, which lies nearby. He said he expects to fight to defend Greeleyโs rights and will object to anything he sees as threatening.
โWe intend to be an objector in the water court process to protect our decree and our investments,โ he said.
A new report from Colorado Lawโs Colorado River Research Group warns the Colorado River Basin is โout of time,โ describing conditions so severe they threaten the regionโs water supply, economy and governance. Called โColorado River Insights 2025: Dancing with Deadpool,โ theย reportย details a dire assessment of the basinโs worsening crisis and offers options for reform. According to the report, reservoirs that once stored four years of river flows are now more than two-thirds empty. The authors note a single dry year or two could push Lake Powell and Lake Mead below critical thresholds, jeopardizing hydropower, water deliveries, and even physical conveyance downstream. The report concludes that current operating rules through 2026 are unlikely to prevent this scenario.ย
โThis report underscores that the basin is out of time, the crisis is no longer theoretical,โ said Douglas Kenney, director of the Western Water Policy Program of the Getches-Wilkinson Center at the University of Colorado Law School and chair of the Colorado River Research Group.
โPost-2026 negotiations must produce durable, equitable, climate-realistic solutions โ and they must do so urgently. The message is stark: the Colorado River system is now dancing with Deadpool.โ
Among the key challenges:
Severe shortage risk: The authors warn that if the next two winters are dry, combined usable storage in Powell and Mead could fall below 4 million acre-feet โ far short of whatโs needed for water supply and compact obligations.
Climate-driven decline: Rising temperatures, shrinking snowpack efficiency and ocean-atmosphere interactions are reducing runoff and precipitation.ย
Safety nets collapsing: Groundwater reserves are rapidly depleting, while federal capacity โ funding, staffing and science programs โ are eroding. Interstate cooperation is fraying, and litigation may be on the table.
Authors stress that many challenges are self-inflicted and, in their view, solvable with technical, legal and financial tools already available.
Colorado River Basin Plumbing. Credit: Lester Dorรฉ/Mary Moran via Dustin Mulvaney and Twitter
The year is ending with the Colorado River at a critical juncture.
Figure 4. Graph showing active storage in Lake Powell, Lake Mead, and in Powell+Mead between January 1, 2023, and November 30, 2025. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies
The big reservoirs Mead and Powell remain perilously low and the seven states that share the basin have been unable to agree on cuts that would reduce their reliance on the shrinking river.
Reservoir operating rules expire at the end of 2026. If no agreement is reached the federal government could step in, or the states could take their chances in court. Itโs a risky move that no one in principle seems to want. Yet brinkmanship and entrenched positions have stymied compromise.
Native America in the Colorado River Basin. Credit: USBR
The basinโs Indian tribes, which collectively have rights to more than a quarter of its recent average annual flow, are adamant that their interests โ and more broadly, the river itself โ be protected. โAny progress made in the negotiations to date is merely rationing a reduced supply, not actively managing and augmenting it as a shared resource with strategies and tools that can benefit the entire basin,โ the leaders of the Gila River Indian Community wrote on November 12.
Dozens of semi-trucks have blown over in high December winds, the Wyoming Department of Transportation reports. (WYDOT/Facebook)
Click through to read the article on the WyoFile website and to view the rainbow photo (Katie Klingsporn):
December 26, 2025
December ushered an array of weird meteorological conditions to Wyoming โ from record-high temperatures to hurricane-strength winds and the rare winter rainbow.
The prismatic arch appeared over central Wyoming on Dec. 17, a rare spot of beauty amid raging wind gusts that wreaked havoc across the state.
In nearby Lander, the wind knocked down trash cans and fences. It blew Christmas decorations halfway to Colorado, peeled shingles off of roofs, closed the highway to South Pass and felled trees.
Elsewhere, high winds have knocked out the power to traffic signals in Casper and forced city officials to close the landfill. December gusts also toppled dozens of semi-trucks on highways like Interstate 80, the Wyoming Department of Transportation reported.ย
Balmy temperatures have attended the winds, breaking records in places ranging from Riverton to Worland and Rock Springs โ where a high of 59 was the warmest temperature on record in December, according to the National Weather Service.
Residents accustomed to bundling up for single-digit temperatures, snowfall and ice skating during the holidays may instead reach for a windbreaker and umbrella this year.
At Lake Mead National Recreation Area in Nevada, “the National Park Service’s focus remains on sustaining boating access and visitor services across the park, including operations at Hemenway Harbor, Callville Bay Marina, Echo Bay, Temple Bar Marina, and South Cove to the extent feasible,” the National Parks Traveler was told.
“As part of that effort, construction began at Hemenway Harbor last summer to extend the launch ramp and help maintain access as conditions change. Lake levels are closely monitored, and NPS operations continue to be adjusted as needed to support safe recreation while protecting park resources,” the Park Service said.
Two years ago Lake Mead officials adopted a plan to “maintain recreational motorboat access in the event water declines to 950 feet.” As of Tuesday, the elevation wasย 1061.76 feet, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Atย Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, which straddles the Utah-Arizona border, the Park Service hasย spent more than $100 millionย in recent years to extend boat ramps and relocate a takeout for river runners coming down the Colorado River throughย Canyonlands National Park.
Colorado River negotiators are seen, from left to right: Becky Mitchell (Colorado), Tom Buschatzke (Arizona), Brandon Gebhart (Wyoming), and John Entsminger (Nevada). (Photo by Jeniffer Solis/Nevada Current)
Western states that rely on the Colorado River have less than two months to agree on how to manage the troubled river โ and pressure is mounting as the federal government pushes for a compromise and a troubling forecast for the riverโs two biggest reservoirs looms.
Top water officials for the seven Colorado River Basin states โ Arizona, California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming โ gathered for the three-day Colorado River Water Users Association conference at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas last week.
Colorado River states have until Feb. 14 to reach a new water sharing agreement before current operating rules expire at the end of 2026 โor the federal government will step in with their own plan.
Despite the fast-approaching deadline, states reiterated many of the same issues they did during previous years at the conference, namely, which water users will need to sacrifice more water to keep the Colorado River stable as overallocation, climate change, and rising demand sucks the river dry.
Nevadaโs chief river negotiator and general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority John Entsminger offered a succinct but sharp assessment of the negotiations during a panel discussion Thursday.
โIf you distill down what my six partners just said, I believe thereโs three common things: Hereโs all the great things my state has done. Hereโs how hard/impossible it is to do any more. And here are all the reasons why other people should have to do more,โ Entsminger said.
โAs long as we keep polishing those arguments and repeating them to each other, we are going nowhere,โ he continued.
The seven states that share the riverโs flows have been deadlocked for nearly two years over how to govern the waterway through the coming decades โ even as water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell are forecasted to reach record lows after two straight years of disappointing snowpack across the West.
The Colorado Riverโs headwaters saw a weak snowpack last winter, contributing to one of the worst spring runoff seasons on record. Water flow into the river this year was only 56% of average, leading to significant reductions in Lake Powell, according to the Interior Departmentโs Bureau of Reclamation.
Federal officials also released a troubling forecast of expected flows for the river in 2026, which were significantly lower than previous predictions. Projections from the Bureau of Reclamation found the Colorado Riverโs inflow next year would likely be 27% lower than normal, with worst-case scenarios predicting even lower flows.
Without a strong winter snow season, itโs possible Lake Powellโs levels could drop low enough to cease hydropower production by next October โ a scenario that would also limit the departmentโs ability to send water downstream to Arizona, California and Nevada.
The federal government has refrained from imposing its own plan for the river, preferring the seven basin states reach consensus themselves. But the Interior Department has ramped up pressure on states to reach a deal.
The Bureau of Reclamationโs Acting Commissioner Scott Cameron said he and other federal officials have intensified efforts to bring states to a consensus, flying out West every other week since early April to meet with the seven statesโ river negotiators.
โThe expiration of the current agreements is not a distant horizon. Itโs less than a year away. The time to act is now,โ said Cameron.
Within the next few weeks, the Bureau of Reclamation will release a range of proposals to replace the riverโs current operating rules, but said they would not identify which set of operating guidelines the federal government would prefer
During the conference, negotiators for the seven states repeated that they are still committed to finding a consensus despite missing previous deadlines. Californiaโs biggest water districts said they were willing to โset aside many of their legal positionsโ in order to reach a seven-state agreement.
However, a long-term multidecade strategy for managing low river flows is likely out of reach.
โI went into this processโฆadvocating strenuously for a 20- to 30-year deal,โ said Entsminger. โI no longer believe thatโs possible with the time we have left and with the hydrology that weโre facing.โ
Entsminger said the โbest possible outcome at this junctureโ is a short-term five-year deal that sets new rules around water releases and storage at Lakes Powell and Mead.
During a panel of state negotiators, states highlighted water conservation efforts they have undertaken to reduce water use and protect the river, but all explained why their state canโt take on more cuts.
Figure 4. Graph showing active storage in Lake Powell, Lake Mead, and in Powell+Mead between January 1, 2023, and November 30, 2025. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies
โOur savings accounts are totally depleted,โ said Utahโsโs river negotiator, Gene Shawcroft. โReserviours were full when we started this process. Theyโre empty now.โ
One of the biggest disagreements between the Upper and Lower Basin states is over which faction should have to cut back on their water use during dry years.
The Lower Basin โ Nevada, Arizona, and California โ have agreed to take the first 1.5 million acre-feet in water cuts needed to address deficits and evaporation that are reducing flows in the river, but say any additional cuts during dry years must be shared with upstream states. Under the current agreement, Lower Basin states must take mandetory cuts when water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead are low.
The Upper Basin, which is not subject to mandatory cuts under the current guidelines, say they already use much less water than downstream states and should not face additional cuts during shortages.
Any more cuts to water users in downstream states during dry years will be politically perilous, explained Arizonaโs top negotiator, Tom Buschatzke. Arizona requires the state legislature to approve any changes to Colorado River management rules impacting the state.
Buschatzke called for the Upper Basin โ Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah โ to split any additional water cuts with the Lower Basin states 50-50.
โWe need conservation in the Upper Basin that is verifiable and mandatory,โ Buschatzke said, during the panel.
โI have to go to my legislature and get that approval,โ he continued. โAnd I will say right now, I do not think there is anything on the table from the Upper Basin that would compel me to do that today.โ
New Mexicoโs river negotiator, Estevan Lรณpez, responded, โI think weโve been pretty clear. We are unwilling to require additional mandatory reductions on our water users.โ
This story was originally produced by Nevada Current, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Stateline, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
Click the link to read the report from “Dancing with Dead Poll” on the Getches-Wilkinson website (Jack Schmidt1, Anne Castle2, John Fleck3, Eric Kuhn4, Kathryn Sorensen5, Katherine Tara6) Here’s Chapter 1:
In Brief
The rains of mid-October caused significant flooding in the San Juan River basin and increased reservoir storage throughout that basin and in Lake Powell.7ย However, basinwide reservoir storage remains low, and the October rainfall offerings were insufficient to alleviate the peril of declining overall water supply.
While the attention of the Basinโs water management community remains focused on the thus far unsuccessful effort to forge a seven-state agreement on future long-term operating rules, the Basin continues to face the risk of short-term crisis. If winter 2025-2026 is relatively dry and inflow to Lake Powell and other Upper Basin reservoirs is similar to that of 2024-2025, low reservoir levels in summer 2026 will challenge water supply management, hydropower production, and environmental river management. Under such a scenario, it is likely that less than 4 million acre feet in Lake Powell and Lake Mead would be realistically available for use during the nine months between late summer 2026 and the onset of snowmelt runoff in 2027. If winter 2026-2027 is also dry, water supply would be further constrained. The present reservoir operating rules that remain in place through 2026 are insufficient to avert this potential water supply crisis. Action to further reduce consumptive water use across the basin is needed now.
How did we get here?
The Basinโs reservoirs were nearly full in late summer 1999,8ย acting as a buffer against dry years and serving their fundamental purpose. At that time, the 46 Colorado River Basin reservoirs tracked by the Bureau of Reclamation in its Hydro database held 59.5 million acre feet (maf) in active storage,9ย more than four times the Basinโs average consumptive uses and losses in the 1990s (Fig. 1).10ย Beginning in 2000, five years of below average runoff11ย resulted in a 46% reduction in storage in the Basinโs reservoirs.12 During that time, the reduction in storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead accounted for 90% of the Basinโs total loss in storage, because most of the Basinโs water was stored in those two reservoirs.
Figure 1. Graph showing active storage in Colorado River basin reservoirs between January 1, 2021, and November 30, 2025. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies
During the next fourteen and a half years, the amount of storage in the Basinโs reservoirs changed little, despite four years of large runoff (2005, 2011, 2017, and 2019). The increase in storage during the few wet years was nearly completely consumed during the more frequent dry years, and active storage in Powell and Mead was only 5% greater in late July 2019 than it had been at the beginning of 2005.13ย When dry years of low runoff returned between 2020 and 2022,14ย the Basinโs water users had little of the buffer that they had at the beginning of the 21st century. Combined active storage of Powell and Mead was halved again between mid-July 2019 and mid-March 2023,15ย reducing the combined contents of these two reservoirs to only 27% of what it had been in late summer 1999.16ย If next winterโs runoff is as low as it was in 2025ย 17ย and consumptive use is not significantly reduced, Powell and Mead will drop below the previous unprecedented low stand of mid-March 2023.
How much of active storage is realistically available?
One of the challenges of the current water supply crisis is uncertainty over how much water is actually available in the reservoirs for use. Although Reclamation regularly reports the amount of water in active storage, our analysis identifies realistically accessible storage as the more appropriate metric of the amount of water that is available for use without challenging the integrity of the dam structures, efficient production of hydroelectricity, or implementation of environmental river management protocols, especially in Grand Canyon.
The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson
Reservoir water that can be physically released from a dam is termed active storage. In virtually all reservoirs, there is a small amount of water below the elevation of the lowest outletsโthe infamously named dead pool. Active storage is everything above dead poolโwater that can be physically released through the reservoirโs lowest outlets.
We know, however, that not all the water above dead pool is readily usable. Engineering assessments have indicated that infrastructure constraints at Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams require that higher reservoir elevations be maintained, thereby constraining utilization of the lowest part of the active storage. We defined realistically accessible storage as the volume of water whose release does not impact previously identified engineering or hydropower-production constraints.
At Glen Canyon Dam, for example, the lowest release tubes, called the โriver outlets,โ are at elevation 3370 ft. Reservoir water below that elevation cannot be released and constitutes the dead pool. Above the river outlets, at elevation 3490 ft, are the intakes for the power generating turbines, known as the penstocks. The penstocks are the conduits that withdraw water from the reservoir into the powerplant to generate electricity, and thereafter discharge the water to the Colorado River downstream from the dam. When the reservoir falls below the elevation of the penstocks, the river outlets are the only means of discharging water through the dam (Fig. 2). The river outlets are not routinely used to release water; virtually all normal releases go through the penstocks.
Experience has shown that the river outlets were not designed for continuous release at the discharge rates required to meet downstream obligations. If the river outlets were to be used continuously, there is significant concern that structural damage to those outlets could occur.18
Accordingly, Reclamation has determined that it will take steps to avoid Lake Powell elevation declining below 3500 ft, considered a safe elevation for continuous withdrawal of water through the penstocks without risk of harm caused by cavitation to the turbines that produce electricity.19ย Similarly at Lake Mead, Reclamation has indicated its intent to protect the reservoir from going below elevation 1000 ft.20
Figure 2. Diagram showing schematic of Glen Canyon Dam elevations at which Lake Powellโs waters can be released downstream, and the volumes of water defined by these elevations. Active storage between 3370 and 3500 ft is not realistically accessible for continuous downstream release without risk to engineering infrastructure at the dam and powerplant. Hydroelectricity cannot be produced below 3490 ft, and 3500 ft has been established as a minimum safe level for intake through the penstocks.
The total volume of active storage in Lake Powell above dead pool but below elevation 3500 ft is 4.2 maf. Release of this stored water is constrained, because it cannot be safely withdrawn through the penstocks, and continuous use of the river outlets is considered unwise. At Hoover Dam, there is 4.5 maf of active storage below elevation 1000 ft, also not realistically accessible. In these two largest reservoirs of the Colorado River Basin, there is a total of 8.7 maf of active storage below the elevations required for safe and efficient operation of the infrastructure (Fig. 3). Thus, of the 14.9 maf of active storage at Lake Powell and Lake Mead on November 15, 2025, only 42% of that active storage, 6.2 maf, was realistically accessible.
Figure 4. Graph showing active storage in Lake Powell, Lake Mead, and in Powell+Mead between January 1, 2023, and November 30, 2025. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies
Implementation of environmental river management protocols at Glen Canyon Dam are constrained when the elevation of Lake Powell is low. Since 1996, controlled floods, administratively termed High Flow Experiments (HFEs), have been conducted at Glen Canyon Dam to rebuild eddy sandbars along the riverโs margin and conserve sediment. HFEs are now an essential component of the Long Term Experimental and Management Plan for Glen Canyon Dam.21ย Reclamation did not, however, release an HFE in 2021 or 2022 when sediment conditions were sufficient to trigger implementation of the HFE Protocol because Lake Powell was low. In early October of those years, when decisions about implementing HFEs were made, active storage in Lake Powell was 7.3 maf (elevation 3545.3 ft) and 5.8 maf (elevation 3529.4) in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Reclamation cited low storage as the reason not to release those controlled floods.22ย Although administrative decisions change with time, it is doubtful that any HFEs would be released if Lake Powell fell below elevation 3500 ft.
Low reservoir levels also impact Reclamationโs ability to control the invasion into Grand Canyon of smallmouth bass, and other warm water reservoir fish species, that dominate the recreational fish community of Lake Powell. These nonnatives are significant predators and competitors of endangered or threatened native fish species and live near the surface of Lake Powell. At moderate and low reservoir elevations, water withdrawn through the penstocks (termed fish entrainment) includes some fish that survive passage through the powerplant turbines and are delivered into the Colorado River downstream from the dam. These fish have the potential to successfully spawn downstream from the dam if river temperatures are relatively warm, such as occurs when Lake Powell is low and water is only released through the penstocks.
This infographic shows how as Lake Powell water levels decline, warm water containing smallmouth bass gets closer to intakes delivering water through the Glen Canyon Dam to the Grand Canyon downstream. Credit: U.S. Geological Survey
Reclamation has implemented a protocol to eliminate the potential of smallmouth bass population establishment in Grand Canyon by releasing some cooler water through the river outlets when the water released through the penstocks is warm. The objective of these Cool Mix releases is to disrupt smallmouth bass spawning downstream from the dam. Water released through the river outlets bypasses the powerplant and does not produce electricity, and Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) must purchase electricity on the open market to replace electricity that the agency contractually committed to provide. WAPA estimated that the cost of replacing contracted electricity was $18.9 million23ย and $6.5 million24ย during the Cool Mix releases of 2024 and 2025, respectively. The risk of fish entrainment from Lake Powell increases significantly as Lake Powellโs elevation drops, and the need to implement the Cool Mix protocol therefore increases. The risk is minimized if Lake Powell is higher than 3590 ft (10.8 maf active storage) and significantly increases when Lake
Powell is below 3530 ft (5.8 maf active storage).25 When water is no longer withdrawn through the penstocks, the risk of entrainment decreases, because all water passes through the lower elevation river outlets.
What would happen if the coming winter and spring snowmelt is similar to 2024-2025?
In anย analysis released in September 2025, we reviewed what might happen in the coming year if runoff is the same as it was last year and Basin consumptive uses and losses are the average of the past four years. We used a simple mass balance approach and estimated the available water supply and consumptive uses and losses, and calculated the difference between the two. The available water supply is the sum of the natural flow of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry plus inflows that occur in the Lower Basin, primarily in Grand Canyon. Consumptive uses and losses are those associated with diversions that support irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial use, water exported from the Basin by trans-basin diversions, and reservoir evaporation. The difference between supply and use is the net effect on reservoir storage. We then estimated the effect of the Basinwide imbalance between supply and use on the combined realistically accessible storage in Powell and Mead, i.e., above elevations 3500 and 1000 ft in Lake Powell and Lake Mead, respectively.
In the scenario that we considered, we assumed that natural flow at Lees Ferry in the coming year will be 8.5 maf, the same as in Water Year 2025,26 and inflow in the Grand Canyon is 0.8 maf. Thus, we assumed a total supply in the coming water year of 9.3 maf. We analyzed a scenario wherein consumptive uses and losses in the United States portion of the Colorado River would be the average of the most recent four years (2021-2024), namely 11.5 maf,27ย and we assumed that 1.4 maf would be delivered to Mexico.
The gap between supply and use under this scenario is 3.6 maf, which would have to be met by additional withdrawals from reservoir storage. Assuming that 75% of this deficit would be withdrawn from Lake Powell and Lake Mead (2.7 maf), then the realistically accessible storage in these two reservoirs would be reduced to 3.5 maf, slightly less than the 21stย century low that occurred in mid-March 2023 (Fig. 3). Our analysis of this one realistically low inflow scenarioโthe coming yearโs supply is just like last yearโs and consumptive uses and losses are the average of the past four yearsโis consistent with, but less dire than, Reclamationโs most recent 24-Month Study minimum probable forecast28 for the coming year. That study projects that total storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead will be drawn down by 3.8 maf during the next year, 2.9 maf from Lake Powell alone. Under Reclamationโs minimum probable projection, the elevation of Lake Powell would drop below 3500 ft in August 2026. All of the remaining realistically accessible storage, 2.5 maf in the scenario modeled by Reclamation, would be in Lake Mead. Under the assumption that the current operating rules remain in effect in 2027, Reclamationโs projection is that the elevation of Lake Powell would stay below elevation 3500 ft through at least July 2027.
Further complicating the situation is that the status and ownership of water in Lake Mead at very low storage levels is unclear. Lake Mead holds (a) water available for allocation in the Lower Division under the prior appropriation system, (b) at least some amount of the water due to Mexico under treaty obligations, and (c) assigned water. Assigned water, commonly known as Intentionally Created Surplus or ICS, is water that can be delivered independent of the Lower Basinโs prior appropriation water allocation system and that is held in Lake Mead by the Secretary of the Interior for the benefit of a specific entity. Assigned water also includes delayed water deliveries held for the benefit of the Republic of Mexico that can be delivered subsequently in amounts in excess of the U.S. treaty obligation to Mexico of 1.5 maf/year. Owners of assigned water have the right to withdraw that water when Lake Mead water levels are above 1025 ft, but entitlement holders in the priority system also have a right to water deliveries, as does Mexico via treaty.
Sketches by Floyd Dominy show the way he’d end the Glen Canyon Dam. From the article “Floyd Dominy built the Glen Canyon Dam, then he sketched its end on a napkin” on the Salt Lake Tribune website.
So long as there is water in Lake Mead adequate to fulfill all required and requested deliveries, no conflict arises. However, as the amount of water in Lake Mead decreases, the potential for a clash increases. International treaty obligations take precedence over deliveries pursuant to the priority system within the U.S., but it is unclear how competing priorities and entitlements will be resolved within the U.S. Holders of higher-priority entitlements would likely contest the Secretaryโs authority to reduce their deliveries while withholding assigned water from the priority system. As of the end of 2024, there was approximately 3.5 maf of assigned water in Lake Mead, almost the same as the amount of realistically accessible water in storage above elevation 1000 ft. If Lake Powell ever became a โrun of the riverโ facility, the potential for conflict over access to water in Lake Mead would also increase.
Implications
We are not weather forecasters and have no crystal ball that reveals the coming winter snowpack. We are not predicting that our assumptions about the gap between supply and use/losses and the resulting drawdown of Lake Powell and Lake Mead will inevitably occur. Our scenario is merely one of many possibilities, but our assumptions are sufficiently realistic to serve as a warning of how close the Basin is to a true water crisis. Our results should serve as a call to action. We need to adopt additional and immediate measures across the Basin to reduce water consumption even further during the next year, well before any new guidelines are in place.
Taking steps now to decrease consumptive uses across the Basin will reduce the need to implement draconian measures next summer or in the following years. Every acre foot saved now is an acre foot available for our future selves, slowing the rate of reservoir decline and creating more room for creative Colorado River management solutions. If, on the other hand, we delay reducing water usage and addressing reservoir drawdown, we may find ourselves in more significant distress at the beginning of the Post-2026 guidelines. As weย wrote in October, continued reduction in Lake Powell releases also brings the Basin perilously close to the Colorado River Compact โtripwire,โ the point at which the ten-year rolling total of water delivered from the Upper Basin to the Lower Basin might trigger litigation asking the U.S. Supreme Court to interpret long avoided ambiguities in rules written a century ago by the drafters of the Colorado River Compact.
We do not presume to make specific recommendations about the steps that should be taken immediately to reduce consumptive use in the Basin. There are many smart and experienced individuals in the Colorado River community whose sole focus is on the mechanics of operating the Colorado River water system and the impacts of operations on their particular constituencies.
We can, however, highlight the available mechanisms for reduction of consumptive use that should be explored for their immediate utility in diminishing the looming jeopardy to the overall system. Such mechanisms include:
Releases from federal reservoirs upstream of Lake Powell to stabilize storage in Lake Powell.
Such releases would be made pursuant to the Drought Response Operations Agreement or similar successor agreement or pursuant to the Secretary of the Interiorโs inherent authority to operate federal water projects. Obviously, such releases do nothing to solve the imbalance between supply and demand and will create additional depletions in the system when these reservoirs are refilled. Such releases can, however, provide a temporary bulwark against exceptionally low levels in Lake Powell.
Additional reductions in deliveries from Lake Mead under the Secretaryโs Section 5 delivery contracts in the Lower Basin, as authorized by Section II.B.3 of the decree in Arizona v. California, 376 U.S. 340 (1964).
By reducing deliveries from Lake Mead, releases from Lake Powell could also be reduced without the risk of causing exceptionally low storage in Lake Mead.
Extension of system conservation programs in the Lower Basin, and facilitation of an Upper Basin water conservation program, both funded through compensation from federal or state governments or other water users in the Basin, and requiring specific quantities of saved water.
Relying on compensated annual forbearance alone is unsustainable, however, because it is not feasible to pay water users in the long term to forgo the use of water that nature no longer supplies. Permanent reductions in consumptive use are both necessary and also the most productive use of limited funding. In addition, to be effective, changes to state law in some Upper Basin states may be necessary, including recognition of water conservation as a beneficial use for the purpose of avoiding litigation concerning the Colorado River Compact. Finally, authorization for shepherding of saved water to the intended place of storage is essential, including across state borders.
Reductions in deliveries to Mexico through negotiation of a new minute.
Reductions in consumptive use by federal water projects in the Upper Basin, if allowable pursuant to the Secretaryโs authority.
It should be noted, however, that in order to benefit the Colorado River system, any such reductions must be recognized at the point of diversion and shepherded to the intended place of storage.
It is obvious that any long-term agreement for future Colorado River operations among the Basin States should be evaluated based on its immediate ability to reverse the storage declines experienced in recent years and anticipated in the future under similar hydrology. An agreement that does not reliably balance supply with uses and losses is not sustainable. Similarly, any operational alternative proffered by the Department of the Interior must achieve the same objectives. When our reservoir storage is as low as it is now, we have very little buffer to rely onโwe simply cannot use more water than nature provides.
The focus within the Basin and among its principal water users and state negotiators has been on the formulation of the Post-2026 guidelines for operation of the river. But action is necessary now to avoid creating conditions that will doom the next set of operating principles by initiating their implementation when the Basin is in full crisis mode. No governmental administration, state or federal, wants to see the Colorado River system fail on its watch. Negotiators have worked tirelessly to reach agreement, yet have come up short. The hour is late. The Secretary must take decisive action.
Photo Credit: John Weishei via the Colorado River Research Group
Footnotes
1ย Director, Center for Colorado River Studies, Utah State University, former Chief, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center.
2ย Senior Fellow, Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado Law School, former US Commissioner, Upper Colorado River Commission, former Assistant Secretary for Water and Science, US Dept. of the Interior.
3ย Writer in Residence, Utton Transboundary Resources Center, University of New Mexico.
4ย Retired General Manager, Colorado River Water Conservation District.
5ย Kyl Center for Water Policy, Arizona State University, former Director, Phoenix Water Services.
6ย Staff Attorney, Utton Transboundary Resources Center, University of New Mexico.
7ย Between 9 October and 8 November, five reservoirs in the San Juan River basin gained 204,000 af in total storage, especially in Navajo and Vallecito Reservoirs. Between 9 October and 20 October, Lake Powell gained 105,000 af in active storage, and the total contents of Lake Powell and Lake Mead increased by 108,000 af between September 25 and October 27.
8ย Schmidt, J.C., Yackulic, C.B., and Kuhn, E. 2023. The Colorado River water crisis: its origin and the future. WIREs Water 2023;e1672.
9ย Total active storage in the Basinโs 46 reservoirs was at its maximum on 24 August 1999.
10ย Total Basin consumptive uses and losses, including deliveries to Mexico, averaged 14.2 maf/yr between 1990 and 1999.
11ย Average natural flow of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, estimated by Reclamation, was 9.5 (Water Year, WY) and 9.6 (Calendar Year, CY) maf/ yr between 2000 and 2004. Average natural flow for the preceding ten years (1990-1999) was 15.0 maf/yr (WY, CY). Average natural flow for the entire 21st century between 2000 and 2025 was 12.3 maf/yr (WY, CY).
12ย Total active storage of the Basinโs reservoirs was 32.0 maf on 19 October 2004.
13ย Total active storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead was 23.0 maf on 1 January 2005 and was 24.2 maf on 28 July 2019, a 5% increase.
14ย Average natural flow at Lees Ferry averaged 9.0 (WY) and 9.2 (CY) maf/yr between 2020 and 2022.
15ย Total active storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead was 12.7 maf on 14 March 2023, 48% less than it had been on 28 July 2019.
16ย Total active storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead was 47.7 maf on 19 September 1999.
17ย Reclamation estimates that natural flow at Lees Ferry was 8.5 (WY, CY) maf in 2025.
18ย Bureau of Reclamation, Establishment of Interim Operating Guidance for Glen Canyon Dam during Low Reservoir Levels at Lake Powell (2024).18
19 Bureau of Reclamation, Supplement to 2007 Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and the Coordinated Operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, Record of Decision (2024) (SEIS ROD).
20ย Id.
21ย U.S. Department of the Interior, Record of Decision for the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement, December 2016.
22ย Salter, G. and 7 co-authors, 2025, Reservoir operational strategies for sustainable sand management in the Colorado River. Water Resources Research 61, e2024WR038315.
23ย Ploussard, Q., Paviฤeviฤ, M., and Yu, A. 2025. Financial analysis of the smallmouth bass flows implemented at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2024. Argonne National Laboratory report ANL 25/44, 17 pp.
24ย C. Ellsworth, Western Area Power Administration, pers. commun.
25ย Eppenhimer, D. E., Yackulic, C. B., Bruckerhoff, L. A., Wang, J., Young, K. L., Bestgen, K. R., Mihalevich, B. A., and Schmidt, J. C. 2025. Declining reservoir elevations following a two-decade drought increase water temperatures and non-native fish passage facilitating a downstream invasion. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 82:1-19.
26ย During the 21st century, natural flow at Lees Ferry was lower than this amount in 2002, 2012, 2018, and 2021, meaning that this is not a worst case scenario.
27ย In 2024, consumptive uses and losses in the Upper and Lower Basins totaled 11.4 maf.
28ย October 2025 24-Month Study Minimum Probable Forecast. For a discussion of why the Minimum Probable forecast has become a more reliable indicator of the future than the Most Probable 24-Month Study, seeย Awaiting the Colorado River 24-Month Study, Aug. 14, 2025.
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
โDancing with Deadpoolโ โ Doesnโt that sound like something a romantic like me would concoct? I was intending for this post to be a follow-up on the last post, laying out my rationale for believing that we have all been โromancing the Colorado Riverโ for a century and a half, with three distinct epochs.
But then โDancing with Deadpoolโ came along. โDancing with Deadpoolโ is actually the title of a report recently released by a Colorado River Research Group, a group of natural and social scientists presenting under the auspices of the Getches-Wilkinson Law Center at the University of Colorado. They are โall academics with long, well-established involvement in Colorado River scholarship,โ and youโve heard about the work of a number of them in these posts before โ Brad Udall, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Ann Castle, Doug Kenney, among others. In โDancing with Deadpoolโ they were invited โto present their thoughts on the future of the Colorado River as individuals rather than as representatives of their institutions.โ
Back for a moment to my thesis that, as a Bureau of Reclamation engineer said in 1918, โa vein of romance runs through every form of human endeavor,โ but mediated with desert poet Mary Austinโs caution to those who drink the waters of the romanced river, and who then โcan no more see fact as naked fact, but all radiant with the color of romanceโ: I will say of most of the contributors to โDancing with Deadpool,โ that they are trying to reconcile the naked facts too long ignored with the ongoing Romance of Controlling and Conquering the River that they are too polite to suggest just ending, as it were.
Their thoughts have received a bigger play in the news than they might have, had there been any real news from the closed rooms where the seven state negotiators, with 30 First People nations and Mexico looking over their shoulders, are trying to work out a new post-2026 management plan for the river. Since weโve been in the 2026 water year since October 1, a new plan canโt come any too soon at this point โ especially given the projections that this winter may be as anemic as last winter in terms of runoff this coming summer.
The 60-page report can be found at Colorado River Insights: Dancing with Deadpool, and is mostly good reading; the Executive Summary of the eight essays can be found here, and most newspapers of record have done a big story on the report.
I am not going to go into separate analyses of all eight essays making up this report. What I want to do instead is to pick up and run with some points in several of the essays that seem to me to point toward a potentially romantic vision of our future in the Colorado River region that starts with some often downplayed โnaked factsโ that canโt be ignored or denied foreverโฆ.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall
When we talk about โour problems with the Colorado River,โ we need to be more clear when we are talking about a โriver problemโ and when we are talking about โthe river systemโ that we have imposed on the river to enable our use of the riverโs water. In โDancing with Deadpoolโ Brad Udall and Jonathan Overpeck, take a second look at a bigย river problem. A decade or more ago, they added an enlightening distinction about โdroughtโ to our vocabulary: they acknowledged that part of the 21stย century drought was a โdry drought,โ meaning caused by diminished precipitation; but then said that at least half of the drought was a โhot drought,โ caused by rising temperatures that increased evaporation and transpiration of the precipitation that managed to fall. And the rising temperatures they accrued to anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Now they they have amended their analysis based on studies ofย ย what has been happening in the Pacific Ocean; they say in this essay that the โdryย droughtโ is also probably at least partially a consequence of our anthropogenic sins, due to the impact of rising temperatures on the Pacific Ocean from whence the western climate emerges.
About half of the CRRG scientists collaborate on a โDancingโ essay about ariver system problem,ย analyzing where we stand on Colorado River Reservoir Storage โ showing that we are indeed dancing with deadpool, the stage at which a reservoir level drops below its lowest portals through the dam, meaning no flow in the river below the dam. We wish this were aย river problemย that we could blame on the gods of nature, but it is mostly aย river system problem.ย The river system is most visibly a set of big physicl structures for storing water and releasing it on a need basis into a vast desert distribution system. This system is overlaid on the natural river (which has dealt with worse obstacles in its five million years), but overlaid on the physical system is a thick but rickety layer of compacts, laws, treaties, regulations, court decisions, et cetera that dictate the operation of the physical system. Right now, the river managers โ another layer, generating an operating system fraught with tensions between politics, economics and traditions โ are working kind of desperately on ever-larger bandaids patched on operating systems that were clearly on track for deadpool in the first decade of the century. Jack Schmidtย et alย lay out this unfolding story.
Graphic via Holly McClelland/High Country News.
About half of the CRRG scientists collaborate on a โDancingโ essay about ariver system problem,ย analyzing where we stand on Colorado River Reservoir Storage โ showing that we are indeed dancing with deadpool, the stage at which a reservoir level drops below its lowest portals through the dam, meaning no flow in the river below the dam. We wish this were aย river problemย that we could blame on the gods of nature, but it is mostly aย river system problem.ย The river system is most visibly a set of big physicl structures for storing water and releasing it on a need basis into a vast desert distribution system. This system is overlaid on the natural river (which has dealt with worse obstacles in its five million years), but overlaid on the physical system is a thick but rickety layer of compacts, laws, treaties, regulations, court decisions, et cetera that dictate the operation of the physical system. Right now, the river managers โ another layer, generating an operating system fraught with tensions between politics, economics and traditions โ are working kind of desperately on ever-larger bandaids patched on operating systems that were clearly on track for deadpool in the first decade of the century. Jack Schmidtย et alย lay out this unfolding story.
But those essays reflect the โfirst we scareโem, then we ask them to thinkโ strategy of most legitimate public information (public propaganda never gets to the second step). Some of the essays in โDancing with Deadpoolโ gave some nudges toward alternative ways of looking at both the river and the river system that might be rabbit holes out of the current stalemate.
By measuring the gravitational pull of water for more than two decades, NASA satellites have peered beneath the surface and measured changes in the groundwater supplies of the Colorado River Basin for years 2015 to 2024. Credit: NASA
Doug Kenney, chair of the CRRG and director of the Getches-Wilkinson Centerโs Western Water Policy Program, set me to thinking about that with an essay that was actually part of the โfirst we scareโemโ section of the pamphlet, about the โalarming erosionโ of the Colorado River โSafety Nets.โ
Typical water well
A focus on surface water prior to the early 20th century is understandable; until the advent of powerful fossil-fueled pumps, all land-based animal life including us had to access the water we needed from the surface water that makes up less than one percent of all the water on the planet. We could also dig wells into the upper groundwater zone, fitted with handpumps, and the farm culture generated the windmill driven pump for filling stocktanks as well as home use, but other than that, it was all surface water โ especially when it came to irrigated agriculture.
But now we can access that groundwater โ and obviously do; when we say the Colorado River provides domestic water for 40 million people and irrigation water for five million acres of farmland, it should be obvious that allthat water is not coming from a river running on average 12 million acre-feet a year. It is, in fact, hard to tell in some places in the Lower Colorado River Basin, and in many urban areas, which resource, ground or surface water, is the โsafety netโ for the other. We do know that weโve been pumping enough โsupplementalโ groundwater to cause serious subsiding of the land as emptied underground aquifers collapse irreversibly.
But nevertheless, at the heart (not in the head but the romantic heart) of the negotiations is how to build up the storage again in two big open reservoirs under an increasingly brutal desert sun. How to Make Mead and Powell Great Again! โ and who should sacrifice to do it. Have they not read Udall and Overpeck?
If we were intelligently approaching the post-2026 era, we might consider setting a 20-year โinterimโ schedule for phasing out Mead and Powell entirely as the world warms, and getting as much of the riverโs surface water as possible underground where it is safer from the drying sun. Before we have emptied and collapsed all the underground storage areas. Thereโll be a full post on that one of these days.
Well, thatโs the kind of thinking โDancing with Deadpoolโ wakens in my admittedly iconoclastic mind. I do not suggest that as a simplistic trumpish solution. Allocation of invisible underground water is not as straightforward as the allocation of surface water; nothing will be simplified by trying to combine ground and surface water into a single system โ although it is working out fairly well in Colorado where integrating groundwater and surface water use has been the practice since 1969. Not a new idea, in other words, although California โ where the Central Valley has massive subsidence from aquifer loss โ continues to believe it is not that big a deal.
Why are our negotiators not working on that kind of integrative 21st century thinking? Why havenโt they been working on it since the โinterimโ began in 2007? The water mavens are quibbling over bits and pieces of the overdeveloped surface water, while most of the states pump huge quantities of groundwater with no regulation for their diminishing future. The faded but still somewhat radiant colors of the Romance of Conquest still hover over the basin, where we continue to tinker with the divine compact carved in stone by Godโs lightning and carried off of a sacred mountain by Herbert Hoover and Delph Carpenter.
Members of the Colorado River Commission, in Santa Fe in 1922, after signing the Colorado River Compact. From left, W. S. Norviel (Arizona), Delph E. Carpenter (Colorado), Herbert Hoover (Secretary of Commerce and Chairman of Commission), R. E. Caldwell (Utah), Clarence C. Stetson (Executive Secretary of Commission), Stephen B. Davis, Jr. (New Mexico), Frank C. Emerson (Wyoming), W. F. McClure (California), and James G. Scrugham (Nevada) CREDIT: COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY WATER RESOURCES ARCHIVE via Aspen Journalism
John and Mrs. Gulch in Coyote Gulch May 2000. Note the socks drying on the backpack, that old Jansport.
Mrs. Gulch (Early 1973): Since we’re taking the summer off for a honeymoon let’s go backpacking.
Me: No thanks, I backpacked during my time in the Boy Scouts before being asked to find another outlet for my Junior High attitude.
Mrs. Gulch: What didn’t you like about backpacking.
Me: At the top of the list — I don’t like cooking over a campfire.
Mrs. Gulch: We can get a backpacking stove.
Me: A what?
Mrs. Gulch: A backpacking stove, they use white gas that you carry in a Sigg bottle. Let’s go to the backpacking store, things have changed since you were a Boy Scout.
Joe Ruffert helping Coyote Gulch out of the mud along the Escalante River sometime in the early 1980s. We were on our way to meet Mrs. Gulch at Coyote Gulch. Photo credit: Mike Orr
That was my introduction to Mrs. Gulch’s knowledge of backpacking. Of course she was way more experienced than I was but didn’t gloat. She wanted to be on the trail and she wanted to take me along. That opened up a world for me and I became obsessed with backpacking — mountains and desert — it didn’t matter, and much of my time during winter, from then on, was spent looking over USGS topo maps, trying to find a cool route to follow. Subsequent years you could find us on the trail in Colorado, Utah, Montana, Washington, and New Mexico most often with my good friend Joe. We took many folks on their first backcountry trek over the years and alternated mountains then desert, year after year.
There is a standout trek for me. Four of us started in Harris Wash, a trib of the Escalante River and walked to Coyote Gulch, another trib of the river. Mrs. Gulch and another friend met us there with a food drop so that she and I could go back upriver to our VW bus parked at the Harris Wash trailhead.
During the hike to Coyote Gulch we met up with hoards of biting flies until below 20 Mile Wash. It was miserable at times but we learned to get in the shade, kill a few, slather up with DEET, cool off and hydrate.
When Mrs. Gulch and I left the group in Coyote Gulch my friend Don asked, “You’re going back through the flies?”
When she and I hit the fly space upstream we ended up hiking from early morning until nighttime to get done as quickly as possible. The last day I was pretty agitated and tired from the trek and I missed the exit to Harris Wash. I was worried and anxious also and a little (maybe a lot) of panic set in. I’ve mentioned before how much I depended on Mrs. Gulch’s wise counsel during our 50 years of marriage and that day it showed up again.
Mrs. Gulch (calmly): Let’s get in the shade, kill a few flies. You can get your compass and the topo sheet out of your pack and figure out where we are.
Me: These flies! We missed Harris Wash? We need to get back to the bus and back to Denver! Blah, blah, blah!
Mrs. Gulch (repeating herself calmly): Look there’s a shady alcove over there, let’s go there, kill a few flies, and you can get your compass and the topo sheet out of your pack and figure out where we are.
My Christmas present — messing with maps, see if you can find Harris Wash and Silver Falls Creek. Map: Escalante, Utah. USGS Historical Topographic Map Collection
After orienting the map and taking a good look at the terrain I saw a side canyon (Silver Falls Creek) coming into the Escalante River canyon just upstream and found it on the map. As it turns out we just needed to go back downstream a bit (just around the bend) and we would be at the confluence with Harris Wash. We didn’t miss it by much.
Wise counsel indeed.
Happy 71st birth anniversary Mrs. Gulch and thank you for your humor and wise counsel over the years.
During the last 7-days, strong anomalous ridging over the Aleutians and troughing over the Gulf of Alaska promoted northerly flow across Alaska, leading to below-normal temperatures and little snowfall. Downstream, an unusually strong ridge dominated the flow across the contiguous United States. Between the northeastern Pacific trough and this ridge, strong onshore flow and atmospheric river activity promoted copious amounts of precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, though above-normal temperatures kept snow elevations higher than normal and limited the ability of this precipitation to substantially build early season snowpack across the Cascades, northern Sierras, and northern Rockies. Little to no precipitation was observed across the Southwest through the Plains under the anomalous ridge, and much above-normal temperatures promoted degradations of drought depictions for portions of the Rockies, Great Plains, and the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley. Across the East, an active northern stream saw the development of several storm systems which brought widespread precipitation across portions of the South, the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and the Northeast. Warming temperatures across the region caused much of this precipitation to fall as rain, melting much of the snowpack built during the previous week in the process. This precipitation led to some modest improvements to drought and abnormal dryness, though more widespread drought reductions were limited due to frozen soils and streams across New England, and groundwater conditions that are slower to respond to precipitation across the mid-Atlantic region. Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures led to degradations across much of Florida…
A lack of snow cover, much above-normal temperatures, and periods of strong winds led to an unusual amount of winter degradation across the High Plains region.D2 expanded across western Nebraska, with expansions of both D1 and D0 occurring across central and eastern parts of the state, where precipitation was generally less than 0.2 inch equivalent, and high temperatures soared as high as the 70s. A small area of D1 expanded across southeastern Kansas, and across Colorado, D4 was introduced to Eagle and Pitkin Counties. D0 expanded across the Plains of Wyoming, where warm temperatures, strong winds, and a record lack of snow cover promoted worsening impacts. Drought depictions remained unchanged across the Dakotas, where soils and streams have largely frozen for the winter…
Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending December 23, 2025.
Across the West, a series of atmospheric river events brought copious amounts of precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, with Washington and the northern Rockies continuing to be pounded, and precipitation extending further south later in the period to blanket western Oregon and northern California, which had missed out on heavy precipitation during AR events earlier in the month. While the repeated bouts of heavy precipitation continue to ease lingering drought conditions west of the Cascades, the picture is a bit more mixed at higher elevations. Temperatures during the period ranged above-normal, keeping snow elevations higher than average, which prevented the much above-average precipitation from building up substantial snowpacks in the Cascades and northern Sierras. In fact, SWE values remain below 50-percent of average across the Cascades, northern Sierras, Blue Mountains, and the Bitterroot Range, though conditions have started to improve across the remainder of the Northern Rockies. While not an immediate drought concern during the winter months, a lack of snow cover could present problems during the Spring and Summer melting season, and additional precipitation along with colder temperatures are needed to recover the snowpack conditions during this wet season. Based on these considerations, D1 and D0 were reduced along the western front of the Cascades and across small portions of the Intermountain West, but drought conditions were maintained across the higher elevations. A small area of D0 reduction was made across northern Montana, where recent storminess brought improvements to 30- and 60-day SPI values…
Following another week of subnormal precipitation, and with temperatures ranging above-normal, the South saw further drought degradations. A small area of heavier precipitation fell across far South Texas, resulting in reductions of D1 and D0, but drought expanded or intensified across the southern Texas plains, Hill Country, and the Piney Woods. Drought also intensified along the Red River Valley, and degradations were more widespread across the eastern two thirds of Oklahoma and Arkansas. In Arkansas, local observers continue to report drying lakes and ponds, while in Oklahoma, record warmth, strong winds, and persistently below-normal precipitation promoted expansion of D2 and D3 conditions. Across Tennessee, precipitation was more generous, and a swath of 1 inch or more fell across the central portion of the state where D0 conditions are currently in place. Despite this rainfall, 60- to 90-day precipitation levels remain below-normal, and SPI values continue to indicate dry conditions. Therefore, no improvements were made across Tennessee…
Looking Ahead
During the next few days, atmospheric river activity will continue to bring copious moisture to the West, with the focus of heavy coastal rainfall and mountain snows shifting to California. Heavy precipitation is forecast to push inland to the Great Basin and portions of the Rockies. Later in the week, as the Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging builds over the northeastern Pacific, a break in AR activity is favored through the end of Week-1. Further east, persistent ridging is forecast for the central US, leading to mostly dry conditions and much above-normal temperatures for the Plains. Across the East, a blocking ridge retrograding towards Greenland from Europe will promote backdoor front activity and cold air damming, as well as providing a focus for additional precipitation and winter storm activity. The WPC 7-day QPF forecast shows precipitation amounts exceeding an inch across most of the Northeast Region, much of which may fall as snow or a wintery mix across the mid-Atlantic. Mostly dry conditions are favored for the Southeast during Week-1, with light rain possible across the lower Mississippi Valley. During Week-2, CPC forecast indicate enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation for the western third of the CONUS, with the highest probabilities across the Southwest. A slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation extends along the northern tier to the Great Lakes region, while below-average precipitation is favored for much of the eastern seaboard. Strong anomalous ridging favors above-normal temperatures for most of the CONUS, with blocking potentially leading to below-average temperatures across the Northeast. Above-normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, while below-normal temperatures are favored for Alaska, with drier than normal conditions expected along the southern tier of the state.
Drought Monitor one week change map ending December 23, 2025.
The winter solstice teaches us that we must descend into the darkness before we can return to the light. This solstice season we find ourselves in especially dark times โfiguratively speaking.
We can be fairly certain that the earthโs northern hemisphere will begin tilting back towards the light next week. Yet we can only hope that America will find similar relief from the metaphorical shroud of darkness under which it has fallen.
As I monitor the news each day, I find myself spiraling past frustration, disdain, and outrage and sinking into a mire of disbelief and despair. That our government is rife with corruption, short-sightedness, greed, and incompetence is outrageous, but neither new nor surprising. What is new is that those traits are now combined with blatant cruelty, wretchedness, moral vacuity, outright bigotry and racism, and a pathological dearth of empathy and compassion. Itโs a toxic stew that emanates from the president, is lapped up by his sycophantic and unqualified cabinet โ not to mention the tech broligarchs who debase themselves in hopes of holding onto a few more million of their billions of dollars at tax time, or ease the regulatory burden on their hyperscale AI-powering data centers.
Perhaps most distressing is that the safeguards that once protected the nation from the lunatics or incompetents in power โ i.e. the courts, the rule of law, Congress โ have themselves been broken down or infected with the same malady of wretchedness.
If you think Iโm exaggerating, just consider the current situation: The U.S. military is blowing up Venezuelan boats โ and then striking the wreckage again to kill any survivors โ and is threatening to go to war with the country and send American soldiers into harmโs way, simply to distract the nation from Trumpโs disastrous policies and his close association with known pedophile, sex-trafficker, and scam artist Jeffrey Epstein. And when Democratic members of Congress โ and decorated veterans โ tell soldiers they will support them if they refuse to break the law, Trump threatens to court-martial them.
Thatโs outrageous and despicable. That Congress and the courts and the American people arenโt rising up en masse in revolt is depressing. And thatโs just one example of so, so many like it. Which explains the extra despair during this dark season.
Iโm saying a little pagan prayer that the light will return next year.
But for now, Iโm afraid I have some more darkness to report from the Land Desk beat:
Back in 2024, former Mesa County clerk and right-wing conspiracy theorist Tina Peters was convicted by a jury of breaching the security of her officeโs own election system in 2021 in a futile attempt to prove election fraud. Trump pardoned her, but it didnโt count because it is a state, not federal, crime, and Gov. Jared Polis wasnโt going to play Trumpโs game. That made Trump mad, so, in his usual fashion, he governed by spite and is now planning to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder.
This will not only hurt Colorado, but also science and all the people who are affected by climate and weather and the like, which is to say: everybody, this harms us all. Hereโs a couple Blue Sky takes from prominent scientists:
The U.S. House of Representatives voted yesterday to pass Rep. Lauren Boebert-sponsored legislation that would remove Endangered Species Act protections for gray wolves in the lower 48 states.ย The bill now goes to the Senate. Congress delisted wolves in the Northern Rockies in 2011, turning management over the states; hunting wolves is no allowed in Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho. This bill could potentially do the same for wolves in California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Nevada, and most of Utah.
The Bureau of Land Management is going on a bit of a tear when it comes to auctioning off public land leases to oil and gas companies.ย Just a couple of examples of future sales (June 2026) you can weigh in on:
In Utah, the administration is planning onย offering 39 parcelsย covering about 54,000 acres. A bulk of the parcels are located south of the town of Green River, east of the river itself, and adjacent to Tenmile Canyon.
And itโs looking toย sell 174 oil and gas leasesย covering more than 160,000 acres in Colorado. They donโt have the maps up for these ones yet, but judging by the descriptions it seems they are scattered across much of the state (but not in southwestern Colorado).
โ๏ธ Wacky Weather Watchโก๏ธ
Weather is wacky and probably always has been. But this month has got to be one of the weirdest, weather-wise, the West has seen in a while. Itโs like the new abnormal on steroids, and itโs hard to deny that much of it has the oily fingerprints of human caused climate change smeared all over it.
This week, alone, the West has experienced:
A succession of atmospheric rivers pounded the Northwest, dropping more than 10 inches of rain in places over a few days and bringing several rivers up to record-high flows and causing widespread flooding.ย The Skagit River near Mt. Vernon, Washington, jumped from about 13,500 cubic feet per-second on Dec. 4 to 133,000 cfs a week and a day later. The Snohomish River saw even more dramatic increases in flow.ย The flooding and landslides severely damaged U.S. Hwy 2 through the Cascade Mountains, and it could beย closed for months. And anywhere between 200,000 and 500,000 homes and businesses wereย left without powerย after the floods, rains, and severe winds toppled utility lines, reminding us once again that extreme weather is a far greater danger to the power grid than shuttering coal plants. Atmospheric rivers and big storms arenโt abnormal. But becauseย warm air can hold more moisture, these ones may have been intensified by global heating.
The storms came on the heels of theย warmest meteorological autumnย on record in the Northwest (based on 130 years of record-keeping).ย The result: Huge dumps, even in the mountains, falls mostly as rain, not snow, meaning the snowpack remains relatively sparse across much of the region.
The soggy soil of the Northwest coincided with smoky skies in eastern Colorado.I had thought that I could close out myย Watch Dutyย wildfire-monitoring tab for the season, but I had to bring it back up on Wednesday night as wicked winds combined with dry conditions and warm temperatures to whip up a trio of grass fires in Yuma County, Colorado, with another one flaring up along the Colorado-Wyoming line. All fires were contained, but they brought back memories of theย 2021 Marshall Fire, which broke out in similar conditions at the end of December.
The fires followed a nine-day warm streak on the Front Range, when the mercury in Denver topped out at 60ยฐ F or above, including reaching a daily record high of 71ยฐ on Dec. 17.ย The rest of the state was also abnormally warm (after a seasonably chilly beginning to the month).
Expect the same to continue into the New Year.ย While Utah and western Colorado may get some precipitation, itโs likely to be either rain or sloppy snow โ i.e. Schneeregen โ due to unseasonably high predicted temperatures.
Most ski areas in the Interior West are open now, but that doesnโt mean the conditions are good.ย To the contrary, theyโre generally lousy almost everywhere, with snowpack levels hovering around 50% ofย โnormalโย everywhere from Utahโs Wasatch Range to Vail to Wolf Creek in southwestern Colorado. In most of those places the story of the season is the same: It started off with heavy rainfall, followed by a succession of decent snow storms that offered false hope, only to be dashed by a run of warm snow-melting temperatures.ย So far the storyโs even more extreme in the Sierra Nevada, where the mountains are utterly devoid of snow, despite massive, flood-inducing rains this fall. The following graphics from the Wolf Creek Pass SNOTEL station tell the story of most of the region:
The water year started with a deluge and flooding on the San Juan River through Pagosa. While precipitation leveled off after that, accumulations remain above normal and significantly higher than on this date last year.
The problem: All of that water fell as, well, water, not snow, thanks mostly to high temperatures. Note how average daily temperatures have been above the median, sometimes way above it, all water year so far.
The result: way below โnormalโ snowpack levels. They are also significantly lower than at this time last year, and last year sucked, to put it bluntly. While all of the rain eased drought conditions and restored some moisture to the soil, the lack of snow does not bode well for spring runoff โ or the reservoirs and water users that depend on it.
๐ค Data Center Watch ๐พ
The backlash to the Big Data Center Buildup is gaining steam, and the resistance to the energy- and water-guzzling server farms is scoring a few victories and suffering defeats.
Earlier this month, Chandler, Arizonaโs city council voted to reject Active Infrastructureโs proposed rezoning request that would have cleared the way for the developer to raze an existing building and replace it with an AI data center complex. The denial followed widespread opposition from residents, and in spite of lobbying by former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in favor of the facility and the developerโs pledge to use closed-loop cooling, which consumes less water (but more energy) than conventional cooling systems.
Opposition to a proposed data center in Page, Arizona, was dealt a blow when aย referendum to block a land saleย for the facility wasย rejectedย because the petition didnโt meet legal requirements. Beth Henshaw hasย more on the Page proposalย over at theย Corner Post, a cool nonprofit covering the Colorado Plateau.
Pima County, Arizonaโs supervisorsย approved an agreementย with Beale Infrastructure advancing its proposed Project Blue data center. The developer is pledging to match 100% of its energy consumption with renewable sources and to use a less water-intensive closed-loop cooling system. Opposition to the facility has been fierce.
๐ Good News! ๐
These days we hear a lot about how utility-scale wind and solar developments harm the flora and fauna of the desert. But one solar installation near Phoenix is providing sanctuary for wildlife, as reported by Carrie Klein in Audubon recently. Wild at Heart, a raptor rehabilitation center, rescued a bunch of burrowing owls from a housing development construction site. But instead of returning them to the wild (which is becoming more and more scarce in Arizona), they set them up in plastic tunnels they built amid a 10,000-acre solar installation. The owls are not only surviving, but are thriving and successfully reproducing. Finally, a bit of light!
๐ธย Parting Shotย ๐๏ธ
Moon and tree, Bryce Canyon National Park. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Glen Canyon Dam from the visitor center December 19, 2025.
Update: I found a more complete rendering of Seldom Seen’s Prayer in the Coyote Gulch archives. Scroll to the bottom.
I’m on the road back to Denver. I decided to take a southerly route east from St. George through southern Utah and Northern Arizona to travel through country I had not seen before. A short drive from Kanab on Friday put me at Glen Canyon Dam. Although I am not religious I wanted to stop there and recite Seldom Seen’s Prayer from Edward Abbey’s “Monkey Wrench Gang” which I first read while walking down the Escalante River. My sisters and brothers that walk the tribs off Glen Canyon understand.
“Dear old God, you know and I know what it was like here, before them bastards from Washington moved in and ruined it all. You remember the river, how fat and golden it was in June, when the big runoff come down from the Rockies?… Listen, are you listenin’ to me? There’s somethin’ you can do for me, God. How about a little old pre-cision-type earthquake right under this dam? Okay? Any time. Right now for instance would suit me fine.” -Seldom Seen Smith (H/T Fisher Brewing Company)
My rented Model Y at Glen Canyon Dam December 19, 2025.
What a joy it is to drive the Model Y with self-driving. Self-driving was particularly useful in Las Vegas with all the traffic and unfamiliar (to me) roads. The integration of the Navigation system and the Tesla Charging Network takes quite a load off cross-country road trips. For the leg between St. George and Pagosa Springs I charged at St. George, Page, Kayenta, and Durango.
Glen Canyon downstream of the dam December 19, 2025.
I found a more complete rendering of Seldom Seen’s prayer in the Coyote Gulch archives.
Seldom Seen’s prayer at about Glen Canyon Dam from The Monkey Wrench Gang — Edward Abbey
Anne Castle, Jeff Kightlinger, Jim Lochhead at the 2025 CRWUA Conference. Photo credit: Water Mark (@OtayMark)
Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Daily News website (Austin Corona). Here’s an excerpt:
December 17, 2025
Federal officials have released a โsoberingโ forecast of 2026 water levels in the Colorado River, with expected flows plummeting from previous predictions. Precipitation later in the winter could turn those dire forecasts around, officials say, but the current outlook is grim for a river already flirting with crisis. Officials published the new forecast on Monday, only a day before negotiators and stakeholders from the riverโs basin states gathered in Las Vegas for a three-day conference. The federal government has given states until February to agree on a longer-term strategy for managing low river flows. The Colorado Riverโs flow in 2026 (specifically, the unregulated inflow to Lake Powell) could be 27% lower than normal, according to the most probable scenario in the December forecast, with worst-case scenarios predicting even lower flows. The projection has worsened estimates released in November (16% lower than normal in most probable scenarios).
โWe all know Mother Nature is a trickster and can often confound our expectations. We certainly hope she intends to do that this year,โ said Wayne Pullan, the Bureau of Reclamationโs regional director for the Upper Colorado River Basin, on Tuesday. โBut Decemberโs outlook is troubling.โ
The bureau, which manages federal dams, will delay water releases at Lake Powell to conserve supplies in the reservoir during the dry winter months in 2026, Pullan said. Even with those efforts, however, the lakeโs water levels could fall to critical levels in 2027 as another disappointing year hits the basin. A bad water year in 2026 would compound already poor conditions from 2025, when river flows have been less than half of normal. The new forecast increases the possibility that water levels in Lake Powell could drop below the intakes for hydropower turbines and that releases from the lake could fall below the annual average required to meet the requirements of the 1922 Colorado River Compact, which governs water allocation between the seven states that use the river. Without above-average flows in future years to bring averages back up, or an interstate deal on how to manage drought, those low releases could set the stage for a legal battle on the river.
The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson
Colorado Senate Bill 24-005 (SB5) seeks to reduce unnecessary outdoor water use by limiting high-water landscaping in commercial areas to conserve water amid mounting drought concerns. Beginning Jan. 1, 2026, the legislation will restrict non-functional turf (irrigated grass areas used for decoration), artificial turf and invasive plant species in non-residential settings.
Implementing SB5
SB5 requires changes to land-use code to specify these restrictions for the following applications:
Commercial, institutional and industrial properties
Homeowner association common-interest community areas
Public spaces such as street right-of-way, medians, parking lots and transportation corridors
Restrictions and Applications
Due to the value and appropriateness of higher water use and activity they support, SB5 does not apply to areas considered functional or recreational, including turf for athletic fields, parks and golf courses.
The bill does not impact existing development; it applies only to new developments and certain redevelopment projects that require building or landscaping permits and disturb at least 50 percent of a site’s landscape. It excludes single-family residential properties, focusing instead on public and commercial areas where landscaping serves primarily for aesthetic purposes.
New Landscape Rules Matter for Coloradoโs Future
Landscapes play a vital role to communities, but historical turf-heavy designs consume significant resources to meet social expectations. Today, more sustainable solutions exist that use less water while still delivering functionality. Allocating water budgets to landscape formats that provide the highest social value for the water invested is a sensible application to managing this scarce resource.
Areas that are primarily ornamental can be designed to use less water than traditional turf grass while still providing important non-recreational functionality. For spaces that require turf-like groundcover, multiple alternatives exist that use less water than cool season Kentucky Bluegrass, including Tahoma31 warm season grass, Dog Tuff grass and a variety of native grass combinations that thrive in this climate with minimal supplemental needs. These alternatives support stormwater management, provide cooling and pollution mitigation, while also delivering enhanced benefits of habitat for Coloradoโs native flora and fauna. Non-turf areas such as gardens and groves have plentiful options for perennials, groundcovers, shrubs and trees that use less water than turf while providing essential livability features to our region.
Northern Waterโs Role
To support SB5 implementation, Northern Water has been providing training to regional municipalities, including the Growing Water Smart program from the Sonoran Institute. These workshops introduce new sustainable landscape options that meet municipal needs while also providing flexibility for cities to determine a unique sense of place for their regions. Northern Water and its partners also provide tools such as landscape designs and demonstrations at our Berthoud Conservation Campus so city planners and consultants can experience ColoradoScapes and understand their resource uses as they update land use codes. Many cities are excited to modernize the message their landscapes convey and have begun showcasing these features on their own properties.
Lower Water, Higher Value Landscapes
SB5 ensures that water resources are dedicated to areas with the highest essential and recreational use, while maintaining high quality, aesthetically pleasing commercial, industrial and transportation areas that require less water. These changes will create communities that show our regionโs natural beauty and restore ecosystem services to our pollinators, birds and other animals, while offering an authentic Colorado experience. Learn more about all of our water efficiency services that support this water-wise future.
Happy #DecemberSolstice! ๐Understanding seasons – a look at the hourly incoming solar radiation during the two solstices (23.5ยฐN/S). I've added a red marker for ease of viewing. Dashed line shows the equatorThis graphic can be found at zacklabe.com/arctic-clima…
North Weld County Water District Service Area. Graphic via NWCWD.
Here’s the release from the North Weld county Water District:
December 10, 2025
North Weld County Water District implements modest 4% rate increase for 2026 โ still among lowest in region
WELD COUNTY, COLORADO (Dec. 10, 2026) โNorth Weld County Water District (NWCWD) announced a comparatively modest 4 percent rate increase for 2026 โ which is less than the previous year and significantly lower than the surrounding region.
โMaintaining our water service infrastructure continues to be a priority for the district and one that we balance with our fiduciary responsibility to our rate payers,โ said Eric Reckentine, General Manager, North Weld County Water District.
A diligent infrastructure improvement plan is highlighted in these key District projects designed to ensure a clean, robust, and affordable water supply:
Weld County West Transmission Line:ย The District will start construction of the Weld County west 42-inch transmission line and new 6 million gallon treated water tank in 2026 with a project cost of $20 million dollars.
Eastern Zone Distribution Line:ย The District will continue construction of the eastern zone 30-inch distribution line with the projectโs third phase starting in 2026 and to be completed in 2027.
Soldier Canyon Water Treatment Plant Expansion:ย The SCWTP treatment plant capacity was expanded from 60 million gallons per day to 68 million gallons in 2025. In collaboration with the Soldier Canyon Water Treatment Authority and nearby District partners (such as Fort Collins-Loveland Water District and East Larimer County Water District), NWCWD is finalizing the Soldier Canyon Filter Plant Master Plan, and will begin design on a plant expansion for additional treatment capacity for the District to begin in 2029.
With these improvements, the district says it can meet growth needs well into the future.
โUpgrades to our aging water delivery system allow the District to meet new treatment standards and accommodate the record-breaking growth in Northern Colorado,โ Reckentine said. โA stable revenue stream from water rates enables us to accomplish that.โ
About North Weld County Water District:
Weld County is the fastest growing in the state. North Weld County Water Districtโs cities, residents, and businesses rely on the safe, reliable, and affordable water we have been delivering for over 64 years. The District constantly plans for growing communities, which now span from agricultural to rural to urban, ensuring that all future water needs are met and we can continue to deliver the highest quality water in the growing region for decades to come. To learn more, visit NWCWD.org.
The South Platte River originates in South Park and then wanders northeast, entering Nebraska just a few miles west of Coloradoโs northeast corner. The red line here distinguishes the upper South Platte Basin in Colorado from the lower basin. Image: U.S. Geologic Survey.
The House passes a bill to changeย environmental reviewsย for infrastructure permitting.
USGS study finds lower water levels in Coloradoโs Blue Mesa reservoir the cause of increasedย toxic algal blooms.
And lastly, a draft EIS for post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations, when current rules expire, will be published in the coming weeks.
โLet me be clear, cooperation is better than litigation. Litigation consumes time, resources, and relationships. It also increases uncertainty and delays progress. The only certainty around litigation in the Colorado River basin is a bunch of water lawyers are going to be able to put their children and grandchildren through graduate school. There are much better ways to spend several hundred million dollars.โ โ Scott Cameron, acting commissioner of the Bureau of Reclamation, speaking at the Colorado River Water Users Association conference on December 17, 2025. Cameron encouraged the states to reach an agreement on water cuts and reservoir operating rules instead of suing each other.
By the Numbers
February 14: New Interior Department deadline for the seven Colorado River states to reach an agreement on water cuts and reservoir operations. If the states fail at that, Interior could assert its own authority. There could also be lawsuits. A short-term agreement might be necessary.
The deadline, according to Interiorโs Andrea Travnicek, is for several reasons. It gives states time to pass legislation, if necessary. It provides time for consultation with Mexico and the basinโs tribes. And it allows for reservoir operating decisions in 2027 to be set this fall.
โTime is of the essence, and it is time to be able to adjust those stakes, to arrange so compromises can be made,โ Travnicek said.
News Briefs
Line 5 Oil Pipeline Court Case A U.S. district judge ruled that the federal government, not the state of Michigan, has authority over the contentious Line 5 oil pipeline that crosses the Great Lakes at the Straits of Mackinac.
Michiganโs top officials have attempted to shut down Enbridge Energyโs Line 5 since 2020 when Gov. Gretchen Witmer revoked the companyโs easement.
In his ruling, Judge Robert Jonker determined that the federal Pipeline Safety Act gives the U.S. government the sole authority over Line 5โs continued operation, the Associated Press reports.
Tijuana River Sewage Pollution Cleanup U.S. and Mexican representatives signed an agreement that will facilitate the cleanup of chronic sewage pollution in the Tijuana River, a shared waterway.
Line 5 Oil Pipeline Court Case A U.S. district judge ruled that the federal government, not the state of Michigan, has authority over the contentious Line 5 oil pipeline that crosses the Great Lakes at the Straits of Mackinac.
Michiganโs top officials have attempted to shut down Enbridge Energyโs Line 5 since 2020 when Gov. Gretchen Witmer revoked the companyโs easement.
In his ruling, Judge Robert Jonker determined that the federal Pipeline Safety Act gives the U.S. government the sole authority over Line 5โs continued operation, the Associated Press reports.
Tijuana River Sewage Pollution Cleanup U.S. and Mexican representatives signed an agreement that will facilitate the cleanup of chronic sewage pollution in the Tijuana River, a shared waterway.
Called Minute 333, the agreement outlines actions and sets timelines. A joint work group will assess project engineering and feasibility studies. Mexico will build a wastewater treatment plant by December 2028 and a sediment control basin by winter 2026-27. The agreement also addresses monitoring, planning, and data sharing.
Permitting and Land Use Bills House Republicans used the week before the holiday break to pass a bill that changes infrastructure permitting processes.
The SPEED Act, which passed with support from 11 Democrats, changes the National Environmental Policy Act and the environmental reviews it requires for major federal projects. It restricts reviews to immediate project impacts, sets timelines, and limits lawsuits.
โOn net, these reforms are likely to make it easier to build energy infrastructure in the United States,โ asserts the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Border Wall Kristi Noem, the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, is waiving environmental laws in order to speed the construction of a border wall in parts of New Mexico near El Paso, Texas.
The affected laws include the Clean Water Act, National Environmental Policy Act, Safe Drinking Water Act, Migratory Bird Conservation Act, and others.
Studies and Reports
Mississippi River Recap The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers published a December state of the Mississippi River report, noting how drought conditions this year have influenced operations on the countryโs largest river system.
The Corps authorized construction of an underwater dam that was completed in October in order to impede the upstream movement of salty water from the Gulf of Mexico.
Harmful Algal Blooms in Colorado Reservoir Blue Mesa is the largest reservoir in Colorado and is part of the Colorado River basin water storage system.
The U.S. Geological Survey investigated why Blue Mesa has been experiencing toxic algal blooms in recent years. Its report concluded that warmer water temperatures enabled by lower water levels are the likely cause.
The affected laws include the Clean Water Act, National Environmental Policy Act, Safe Drinking Water Act, Migratory Bird Conservation Act, and others.
Studies and Reports
Mississippi River Recap The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers published a December state of the Mississippi River report, noting how drought conditions this year have influenced operations on the countryโs largest river system.
The Corps authorized construction of an underwater dam that was completed in October in order to impede the upstream movement of salty water from the Gulf of Mexico.
Harmful Algal Blooms in Colorado Reservoir Blue Mesa is the largest reservoir in Colorado and is part of the Colorado River basin water storage system.
The U.S. Geological Survey investigated why Blue Mesa has been experiencing toxic algal blooms in recent years. Its report concluded that warmer water temperatures enabled by lower water levels are the likely cause.
Reducing nutrient inflows is unlikely to help, the researchers said. There are naturally occurring phosphorus inputs and the algae can fix nitrogen from the air.
The best solution might be keeping the reservoir high enough, the report says. That will not be easy in a drying and warming region with competing water demands.
On the Radar
Colorado River Draft EIS Coming Soon In the coming weeks โ in early January if not by the end of the year โ the Bureau of Reclamation will publish a draft environmental impact statement for changes to how the big Colorado River reservoirs will be managed.
Reclamation began its environmental review about two and a half years ago. The agency had hoped to slot a seven-state consensus agreement into the document. But since there is no agreement, the document will instead describe a โbroad rangeโ of options, said Carly Jerla of Reclamation, who spoke at the Colorado River Water Users Association conference.
The draft will not select a preferred option, Jerla said. Instead that will come in the final version.
โWeโve set up a draft EIS that reflects a range of carefully crafted alternatives to enable the further innovation and the ability of the basin to come to a consensus agreement to be able to adopt in time for the 2027 operations,โ Jerla said.
Federal Water Tap is a weekly digest spotting trends in U.S. government water policy. To get more water news, follow Circle of Blue on Twitter and sign up for our newsletter.
The Colorado River Basin spans seven U.S. states and part of Mexico. Lake Powell, upstream from the Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, are the two principal reservoirs in the Colorado River water-supply system. (Bureau of Reclamation)
Last night, I woke up to percussion on the roof. In late November at 7,000 feet in the Rockies, youโd normally look for snow. But yet another predicted storm had petered out and come in as rain instead.
This storm was going to be big, the local weatherman promised, with some places getting up to 6 feet. But then he downgraded the forecast โ and downgraded it again. By the time the system moved off to the east, no more than a few inches had fallen in a couple of high places. Weโd seen no significant snow, and we were getting closer to the solstice.
Anticipation is a fickle feeling, a jittery mix of adrenaline and hope. Early winter used to make me excited, no matter where I lived in the West. Iโd track storms coming in from the Pacific, waiting for Coloradoโs high alpine ski resorts to battle to be the first to open or watching the snowline creep lower in the Pacific Northwest.
But lately that anticipation has been subsumed by dread. Now, the forecast hits me with the wrong kind of adrenaline. I get a cramp in my stomach when storms donโt come. Skiing has made me a barometer for winter, and the recent seasons have gone awry as they become increasingly warm and dry. In the past, I was purely excited about winter storms because I envisioned storm-day skiing and soft turns. Now I worry what the lack of snow means for the future.
As a skier, my happiness is tied to weather systems beyond my control. It might be a sick fascination to keep fixating on snowfall, but it keeps my barometer tuned and makes me look for the bigger patterns.
Skiers can be obsessive, ritualistic and superstitious, prone to worrying about upsetting the cosmic order. We joke about praying for snow, even though we know thatโs not how nature works. But I still go to pre-season ski-burning bonfires and wash my car in hopes of encouraging snowstorms. What is that but praying?
There are two reasons to wish for snow: the selfish and the sustainable.
I want snowy winters partly so I can ski โ so I can enjoy something Iโve done every winter since I was a tiny kid, the thing that makes me feel weightless and fast and connects me to the world around me. But when I compulsively check SNOTEL sites or ski area base depths, Iโm also seeing something bigger and watching the patterns evolve.
Skiing might seem superficial, but winter clearly shows that the climate is changing. Itโs made tangible through movement, or the lack of it. The things we love show us where our pain points are, and how much we stand to lose, and how little control we have.
My local ski hill pushed back its opening date this year, as did every mountain in Utah โ Deer Valley for the first time in its history. Not only was there scant natural snow, it wasnโt even cold enough to make snow. That lack of snow has cascading impacts, especially on workers and communities that depend on winter tourism. But we donโt just profit from snow; itโs also our most solid water supply.
Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map December 21, 2025.
Nearly every part of the Western U.S. is in drought conditions today. As of December, the National Water and Climate Centerโs map of snow-water equivalentis colored red, and most places are less than 50% of average. Snow is our most significant water supply.
Across the West, this slow winter comes after a hot dry summer, when fires crept ever closer to town. Last winter was also dry and skimpy, exacerbating the long-term drought. Ski mountains are haggling over water rights for snowmaking. Lack of snow means increased fire risk and food insecurity, along with entrenched and at times bitter fights over rivers.
We live in a system, and skiing is a specific marker for how that system is changing.
A friend who is a ski guide stopped by the other day, and when I asked him if he was getting anxious about work, he looked north up the valley toward the mountains and grimaced. โIโm not quite worried yet,โ he said. Maybe thatโs rational, but my worry has already kicked in.
Figure 1. Graph showing active storage in Colorado River basin reservoirs between January 1, 2021, and November 30, 2025. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies
I look at the shrinking reservoirs and the spreading drought predictions. I remember last winterโs scratchy, icy ski turns and the summerโs lack of monsoons, with fire lurking in the background. I know what itโs like to wait for snow without it ever coming.
I also know that itโs still early in the season. Things could change, storms could stack up and keep coming, even though the National Weather Service is predicting a weak and wavering La Niรฑa. Thereโs a lot of flexibility in the system. I can look at the sky and still feel some hope. I canโt predict what will happen, I just know what the past has shown me.
So, yes, I am still praying for snow, but for many more reasons and with even more fervor than I did before.
Colorado Snowpack basin-filled map December 21, 2025.
Click the link to explore the interactive graphs on the NRCS website.
The seven states that rely on theย Colorado Riverย to supply farms and cities across the U.S. West appear no closer to reaching a consensus on a long-term plan for sharing the dwindling resource. The riverโs future was the center of discussions this week at the annual Colorado River Water Users Association conference in Las Vegas, where water leaders from California, Nevada,ย Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming gathered alongside federal and tribal officials. It comes after the states blew past a November deadline for a new plan to deal with drought and water shortages after 2026, when current guidelines expire. Theย U.S. Bureau of Reclamationย has set a new deadline of Feb. 14.ย Nevadaโs lead negotiator said it is unlikely the states will reach agreement that quickly.ย
โAs we sit here mid-December with a looming February deadline, I donโt see any clear path to a long-term deal, but I do see a path to the possibility of a shorter-term deal to keep us out of court,โ John Entsminger of the Southern Nevada Water Authority told The Associated Press.
The Colorado River Basin spans seven U.S. states and part of Mexico. Lake Powell, upstream from the Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, are the two principal reservoirs in the Colorado River water-supply system. (Bureau of Reclamation)
The federal government continues to refrain from coming up with its own solution โ preferring the seven basin states reach consensus themselves. If they donโt, a federally imposed plan could leave parties unhappy and result in costly, lengthy litigation. Not only is this water fight between the upper and lower basins, individual municipalities, tribal nations and water agencies have their own stakes in this battle. California, which has the largest share of Colorado River water, has over 200 water agencies alone, each with their own customers.
โItโs a rabbit hole you can dive down in, and it is incredibly complex,โ said Noah Garrison, a water researcher at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Lower Basin states pitched a reduction of 1.5 million acre-feet per year to cover a structural deficit that occurs when water evaporates or is absorbed into the ground as it flows downstream. An acre-foot is enough water to supply two to three households a year. But they want to see a similar contribution from the Upper Basin. The Upper Basin states, however, donโt think they should have to make additional cuts because they already donโt use their full share of the water and are legally obligated to send a certain amount of water downstream.
โOur water users feel that pain,โ said Estevan Lรณpez, New Mexicoโs representative for the Upper Colorado River Commission.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall
Lake Powell is seen from the air in October 2022. The December 24-month study from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projects Powell could drop below the threshold needed to make hydropower in 2026. CREDIT: ALEXANDER HEILNER/THE WATER DESK
Federal water officials addressed the increasingly grim river conditions and laid out their options for dealing with plummeting reservoir levels over the first two days of the largest annual gathering of water managers in the Colorado River Basin.
On Monday, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released its monthly report, which projects a two-year hydrology outlook for the operation of the nationโs two largest reservoirs: Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The report provided a sobering backdrop to the Colorado River Water Users Association conference at Caesarโs Palace in Las Vegas.
Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map December 18, 2025. via the NRCS.
With the slow start to winter in the Upper Basin (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming), the report showed a drop in Lake Powellโs projected 2026 inflow of 1 million acre-feet since the November forecast. Under the โminimumโ possible inflow, Lake Powell would fall below the surface-elevation level of 3,490 feet needed to generate hydropower by October 2026 and stay there until spring runoff briefly bumps up reservoir levels in summer 2027; but the water level would again dip below 3,490 in the fall of 2027.
Under the โmost probableโ forecast, the reservoirโs level stays above minimum power pool, but falls below the target elevation of 3,525 until the 2027 runoff. (Reservoir levels below the target elevation trigger more drastic emergency actions.) The reservoir is currently about 28% full, down from 37% at this time last year.
Wayne Pullan, regional director for the bureauโs Upper Basin, called the December projections troubling.
โThat outlook is sobering for all of us,โ Pullan said at Tuesdayโs meeting of the Upper Colorado River Commission.
Snowpack, which is lagging across the Upper Basin, hovered at around 61% of median Wednesday. Snowpack in the headwaters of the Colorado River was 53% of median.
The Colorado River basin has been locked in the grip of a megadrought since the turn of the century. Climate change and relentless demand have fueled shortages, pushed reservoirs to all-time lows and sent water managers scrambling.
Pullan laid out four tools that the Bureau of Reclamation can use to respond to the projected low water levels to prevent the surface of Lake Powell at the Glen Canyon Dam from falling below 3,500 feet in elevation.
This 2023 diagram shows the tubes through which Lake Powell’s fish can pass through to the section of the Colorado River that flows through the Grand Canyon. Credit: USGS and Reclamation 2023
The first tool is shifting some winter releases to the summer months when runoff into the reservoir will compensate for those releases. The second is releasing water from upstream reservoirs to boost Lake Powell. The third is reducing releases when water levels hit a certain trigger elevation.
Representatives from the Upper Basin and Lower Basin (Arizona, California and Nevada), which share the river, have been in talks for two years โ with long periods of being deadlocked in disagreement โ about how to manage the river after the current guidelines expire at the end of 2026. The 2007 guidelines set annual Lake Powell and Lake Mead releases based on reservoir levels and did not go far enough to prevent them from being drawn down during consecutive dry years.
โWe have learned that if we failed at all in these last 25 years, it might have been that our vision wasnโt sufficiently pessimistic,โ Pullan said.
Statesโ representatives have said they are still committed to finding a consensus after they blew past a Nov. 11 deadline to come up with an outline of a plan. Federal officials have set a second deadline of Feb. 14 for the states to submit a detailed plan.
While water managers across the basin wait for an agreement from the states, federal officials are moving ahead with the National Environmental Protection Act review process and crafting an environmental impact statement for future reservoir operations. Reclamation officials said that they plan to release a draft EIS around the end of the year and that the alternatives analyzed in the EIS will be broad enough that they would capture any seven-state agreement. The draft EIS will not choose a preferred alternative.
โProbably all of you have heard us say, ad nauseum, this emphasis on creating a broad range of alternatives,โ Carly Jerla, a senior water resource program manager at the Bureau of Reclamation, said Wednesday. โWe really went about this by taking input over the last almost two years from you all โฆ to craft a broad range that really reflects the ideas on how to operate the system.โ
Wayne Pullan, Reclamationโs Upper Colorado Basin Regional Director, speaks at the meeting of the Upper Colorado River Commission at the Colorado River Water Users Association Conference on Tuesday in Las Vegas. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Not a routine water source
This isnโt the first time the basin has experienced dire straits. In 2021, as Lake Powell flirted with falling below minimum power pool, the Bureau of Reclamation made 181,000 acre-feet in emergency releases from three Upper Basin reservoirs โ Flaming Gorge, Navajo and Blue Mesa โ to protect critical Lake Powell elevations.
These reservoirs are part of the Colorado River Storage Project, and their primary purpose is to control the flows of the Colorado River. But the unilateral action by the feds rubbed Upper Basin water managers the wrong way. The 36,000 acre-feet released from Blue Mesa cut short the boating season on Coloradoโs largest reservoir, which is on the Gunnison River.
On Tuesday, Coloradoโs representative, Becky Mitchell, said Upper Basin reservoirs are not a routine water source for the Lower Basin.
โI appreciate as weโre in critical and dire situations how we use our resources to protect our infrastructure, but we have to shift,โ Mitchell said. โOur biggest resource is post-2026 and figuring out how do we do this in a way that doesnโt create those to be routine water sources.โ
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall
So far, the basin has avoided the worst outcomes by getting last-minute reprieves in the form of wet years in 2019 and 2023. But overall, Jerla said, the Colorado River can expect to see persistent dry years and challenging conditions in the future, and water managers will need more adaptive, flexible solutions.
โ(This is) really our last year together operating under the existing agreements, kind of stretching the flexibilities and the bounds and stability which those agreements provide,โ she said.
The Colorado River Basin spans seven U.S. states and part of Mexico. Lake Powell, upstream from the Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, are the two principal reservoirs in the Colorado River water-supply system. (Bureau of Reclamation)
The Colorado River fills Glen Canyon, forming Lake Powell, the nationโs second-largest reservoir. The reservoir could drop to a new record low in 2026 if conditions remain dry in the Southwestern watershed. (Alexander Heilner/The Water Desk with aerial support from LightHawk)
Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Wyatt Myskow,ย Blanca Begert,ย Jake Bolster):
December 19, 2025
At the Colorado River Water Users Association annual conference in Las Vegas, Colorado River Basin states remain at an impasse over how to cut their water use as Lake Mead and Lake Powell verge on record lows.
The Colorado River Basin is, quite literally, 50 feet away from collapse, and an agreement to save it is nowhere in sight.
Water titans clashed at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas this week, where negotiators from each of the seven Colorado River Basin states outlined what they have done to protect the riverโand pointed fingers at each other, demanding more.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall
Talks over how to manage the river after 2026, when current drought mitigation guidelines expire, began two years ago. Federal deadlines have come and gone, and the stakes are higher than ever as climate change and overuse continue to push the river that 40 million people rely on to the edge. Still, the states are refusing to budge.
โItโs now 2025, weโre here in a different hotel a couple years later and the same problems are on the table. In the last two years, weโve been spinning our wheels,โ said JB Hamby, Californiaโs lead negotiator, at the annual Colorado River Water Users Association conference.โTime has been wasted, and like water, thatโs a very precious resource.โ
The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson
The Colorado River flows from Wyoming to Mexico, supplying water to seven U.S. states, two Mexican states and 30 tribes. But the bedrock law guiding its management, the 1922 Colorado River Compact, overestimated how much water the river could provide, leading to state allocations that promised more than was ultimately available. The nationโs two largest reservoirs, lakes Mead and Powell, which for decades have met the excess demand driven by overly optimistic allocations, are at the brink. Lake Mead is 33 percent full; Powell is just 28 percent full. If the latterโs water levels drop by an additional 50 feet, the water behind Glen Canyon Dam would be trapped, limiting deliveries to California, Arizona and Nevada, and preventing the dam from generating hydropower.ย
The federal governmentโs data indicate that Lake Powell could drop to that level, known as โdeadpool,โ by the summer of 2027 if significant cuts arenโt made.
Yet, the states remain stuck on the same points that, for years, have prevented any of them from agreeing to reduce their long-term use enough to prevent the collapse of the Colorado River system.
The structural deficit refers to the consumption by Lower Basin states of more water than enters Lake Mead each year. The deficit, which includes losses from evaporation, is estimated at 1.2 million acre-feet a year. (Image: Central Arizona Project circa 2019)
In aย proposalย to the federal government from March 2024, Arizona, California and Nevada, the three states that make up the Lower Basin, which uses the greatest amount of the riverโs water and has historically over-consumed its allotments, put annual cuts of 1.5 million acre feet of water on the table for a post-2026 agreement. [ed. This includes 1.2 MAF for the “Structural Deficit”. The Lower Basin has never been charged for shrink in Lake Mead and in the Colorado River mainstream. USBR said earlier in the Post-2026 guideline negotiations that the LB would have to be charged for shrink going forward.] They want to see any necessary reductions after that, which experts estimate could range from anotherย 2 to 4ย million acre-feet per year, divided among all seven states. One acre-foot of water is enough to supply somewhere between two and four households for a year.
The Upper Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming have proposed taking voluntary reductions. They argue they should not face mandatory cuts because the Upper Basin has never used the full amount of water it was allocated under the 1922 compact, which apportions 7.5 million acre-feet to each basin. Due to climate change and a lack of storage infrastructure, they say theyโre already living with cuts while delivering the required water to the Lower Basin.
— Colorado River Water Users Association (@CRWUA_water) December 18, 2025
In closing comments on Thursday, which provided a rare opportunity for the public to hear what have otherwise been behind-closed-doors conversations, negotiators expressed frustration, rehashing the same talking points they have used for years.
โAs long as we keep polishing those arguments and repeating them to each other, we are going nowhere,โ said John Entsminger, Southern Nevada Water Authorityโs general manager, and that stateโs negotiator. He added that at this point, the best he could envision was an interim five-year operating plan agreement, not the multi-decadal deal that would be necessary to bring certainty to the region. Even a short-term deal still requires resolving debates about what each state can commit to.
The impasse heightens the risk that the federal government will have to step in to implement a plan to protect its infrastructure. Many fear that a failure to reach state consensus could lead to exorbitantly expensive litigation, delay needed action for years and cause uncertainty throughout the region.
The federal Bureau of Reclamation has told the basins to develop a plan by Feb. 14, 2026, after the states blew past a previous Nov. 11 deadline, so it can include their agreement in the federal governmentโs environmental analysis of a post-2026 plan to operate Lakes Mead and Powell and oversee their dam releases.
Lorelei Cloud, Vice-chair of the Southern Ute Tribal Council, and Southwest Colorado’s representative of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, which addresses most water issues in Colorado. Photo via Sibley’s Rivers
Lorelei Cloud, chair of the Colorado Water Conservation Board and co-founder of the Indigenous Womenโs Leadership Network, cautioned against federal intervention. The federal government has fallen short of its trust responsibility to the tribes by failing to provide water, she said.
โAll the people on the ground really need to step up and provide a solution,โ she said.
Bill Hasencamp, manager of Colorado River Resources for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, said that federal intervention would mean reverting to pre-2007 operating guidelines under which water allocations are determined annually. That would make it harder for Metropolitan, which serves 19 million people across Southern California, to plan for the future.
โWe might invest in sources that we donโt need, but also we may have to restrict water deliveries from time to time, as weโve done in the past,โ said Hasencamp. โFor us, thatโs a fail.โ
But Tom Buschatzke, the director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources and the stateโs lead negotiator, told Inside Climate News that federal leadership could break the deadlock between the states, a move that Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs has called for recently.
Buschatzke feels that nothing the Upper Basin has proposed would withstand scrutiny from Arizona legislators, who would have to approve it. Visibly upset, he said the Upper Basinโs claim that they canโt take more cuts is โabsurdโ and is based on them not getting their โpaperโ waterโa term used to refer to water that exists legally but has never been put to use or proven to currently be available.
โThey need mandatory conservation that results in more water being in Lake Powell that can be moved to Lake Mead,โ he said.
From left, J.B. Hamby, chair of the Colorado River Board of California, Tom Buschatzke, Arizona Department of Water Resources; Becky Mitchell, Colorado representative to the Upper Colorado River Commission at #CRWUA2023. Hamby and Buschatzke acknowledged during this panel at the Colorado River Water Users Association annual conference that the lower basin must own the structural deficit, something the upper basin has been pushing for for years. CREDIT: TOM YULSMAN/WATER DESK, UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO, BOULDER
Upper Basin negotiators counter that it is not their responsibility to cut their use to accommodate Lower Basin users who have long overdrawn the system. โWe cannot subsidize overuse,โ said Becky Mitchell, Coloradoโs negotiator.
Lower Basin water use since 1964. 2025 data provisional, based on USBR projections Oct. 29, 2015.
At one point, the Lower Basin used several million acre-feet more water per year than it was allocated, but it has since reduced its consumption and now uses less than it is legally entitled to. California, the riverโs biggest user, touted drastic conservation measures that have reduced water use to its lowest levels since the 1940s, despite booming growth in the state. Lower Basin leaders argue, too, that the regionโs biggest cities, farms and economic outputs from the river are within the three states.
Upper Basin officials argue they have the right to grow as the Lower Basin has, and itโs unfair for those four states to sacrifice their future.
— Colorado River Water Users Association (@CRWUA_water) December 17, 2025
Earlier this week, leaders in both basins saw a preview of the federal governmentโs draft environmental review, which included a range of options for managing Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Some in the Lower Basin expressed concern that the options relied too heavily on them making future cuts. Hamby, Californiaโs negotiator, emphasized that if the basin states eventually reach an agreement, it will determine how the federal government manages the river.
โUltimately, none of it should matter if we get to a seven-state consensus,โ said Hamby, who is also a board member of Southern Californiaโs Imperial Irrigation District, the riverโs single-largest water user. โBut as part of the [environmental review] process, what we look forward to seeing from California is an equally balanced risk across the basin that motivates people to develop a seven-state consensus.โ
Brandon Gebhart, Wyomingโs state engineer and Colorado River negotiator, called the analysis โbroad enough to accommodate any seven-state consensus agreementโ in an email.
Andrea Travnicek, assistant secretary for water and science at the Interior Department, said the government expects to publish the environmental impact statement in the last week of December or first week of January.
Despite the urgency, conference attendees werenโt surprised that negotiations remain stalled and no deal appeared imminent.
Cynthia Campbell, the director of policy innovation for the Arizona Water Innovation Institute at Arizona State University, said she expects one of two outcomes in the next 18 months, and perhaps both: the system will collapse or there will be litigation.
The public, she said, will then ask what happened, and leaders will have no good answers.
โI came with very low expectations, and they were met,โ she said.
The Colorado River Basin spans seven U.S. states and part of Mexico. Lake Powell, upstream from the Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, are the two principal reservoirs in the Colorado River water-supply system. (Bureau of Reclamation)
Bureau of Reclamationโs Acting Commissioner Scott Cameron speaks at the annual Colorado River Water Users Associationโs conference. (Photo: Jeniffer Solis/Nevada Current)
In the next few weeks, the public will get their first look at a critical document two and a half years in the making that will define how the Colorado River is managed for the next decade.
The Bureau of Reclamation โ which manages water in the West under the Interior Department โ is on track to release a draft environmental review by early January with a range of options to replace the riverโs operating rules, which are set to expire at the end of 2026.
Several elements of the draft were shared during the annual Colorado River Water Users Associationโs conference in Las Vegas at Caesars Palace Wednesday.
Negotiations between federal officials and the seven western states that rely on the Colorado River have largely remained behind closed doors since 2023, but any new operating rules will be required to go through a public environmental review process before a final decision can be made.
Interior Department Assistant Secretary for Water and Science, Andrea Travnicek, said the agency is committed to meeting the self-imposed January deadline in order to finalize new rules before the current ones expire.
โThe Department of the Interior recognizes a shrinking timeline is in front of us in order to operate under a new potential agreement,โ Travnicek said.
In an unusual move, federal water officials said the draft will not identify which set of operating guidelines the federal government would prefer, which is typically included in environmental reviews.
โWe will not be identifying a preferred alternative, but we anticipate the identification of that between the draft and the final,โ said Bureau of Reclamationโs senior water resource program manager, Carly Jerla.
Instead, the draft environmental review will list a broad range of possible alternatives designed to enable states to continue working towards a seven-state consensus agreement on how to share the riverโs shrinking water supply.
โWe want to continue to facilitate, but not dictate these operations. The goal here is to inform decision makers and encourage parties to adopt agreements that put consultation and negotiation first,โ Jerla continued.
The Colorado River Basin spans seven U.S. states and part of Mexico. Lake Powell, upstream from the Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, are the two principal reservoirs in the Colorado River water-supply system. (Bureau of Reclamation)
Lower Basin states โ California, Arizona, and Nevada โ and Upper Basin states โ Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico โ have been at an impasse for months over how to manage the Colorado Riverโs shrinking water supplies.
Last month, the states missed a federally-imposed deadline to submit a preliminary seven-state consensus plan that could replace the riverโs operating guidelines after days of intense closed-door negotiations.
Statesโ last chance to share a final consensus-based plan will be mid-February 2026 in order to reach a final agreement in the summer with implementation of the new guidelines beginning in October 2026.
The Bureau of Reclamationโs Acting Commissioner Scott Cameron said he and other federal officials have intensified efforts to bring states to a consensus, flying out West every other week since early April to meet with the seven statesโ river negotiators.
โThere are a number of issues from decades past that some people are having some difficulty getting past,โ Cameron said, adding that states must โbe willing to set aside previous perceived inequities and unfairness.โ
One of the biggest disagreements between the Upper and Lower Basin states is over which faction should have to cut back on their water use, and by how much.
Lower Basin states want all seven Colorado River states to share mandatory water cuts during dry years under the new guidelines. The Upper Basin, which is not subject to mandatory cuts under current guidelines, say they already use much less water than downstream states and should not face additional cuts. [ed. Also, the UB states face cuts every year from Mother Nature with the variability, but generally lower, snowpack each season.]
Despite states missing past deadlines, Cameron said he was โcautiously optimisticโ states will reach a consensus deal by the February deadline.
โItโs not unusual in the negotiating process that tougher decisions get made the closer you get to the deadline. And frankly, there are tough decisions that have to be made,โ Cameron said.
On Tuesday, Californiaโs biggest water districts said they were willing to โset aside many of their legal positionsโ in order to reach a seven-state agreement.
The Bureau of Reclamation provided a broad overview of the components that will be included in draftโs range of options, including guidelines to reduce water deliveries from Lake Mead during shortages, coordinated reservoir operations for Lake Mead and Lake Powell, and storage and delivery mechanisms for conserved water.
Jerla, Reclamationโs senior water resource program manager, said the draft alternatives will include some components previously proposed by states.
She said the agency has adopted a number of temporary operational agreements since 2008 to address changing conditions on the river. Those agreements have served as test runs for a long term agreement and emphasized the need for more flexibility when managing the river from year-to-year.
โWe want to preserve ourselves the flexibility to come back to the table, to do reviews, to make consensus adjustments if needed,โ Jerla said.
That flexibility to operations will likely be needed again this year due to a less-than-average upcoming snow season, that combined with a dry spring or early summer in 2026, could create conditions for another low runoff year.
โWeโre monitoring the forecast, and weโre seeing not a great start to water year 2026. Itโs still early in the year, but the way things are setting up it isnโt looking good,โ Jerla said.
Figure 1. Graph showing active storage in Colorado River basin reservoirs between January 1, 2021, and November 30, 2025. Credit: Jack Schmidt/Center for Colorado River Studies
The two biggest reservoirs in the country, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, are currently at a fraction of their full capacity. Lake Mead is at 32% capacity, while Lake Powell is at 28%.
Additionally, water inflow into the reservoirs in 2026 are projected to most likely be 75% of the average, according to the federal agency. The minimum probable inflow forecast for 2026 is 44% of average, indicating a potentially very dry year.
As the 80th annual Colorado River Water Users Association (CRWUA) conference wraps up, SNWA General Manager John Entsminger reflects on the shared responsibility of everyone on the river, emphasizing collaboration while continuing to protect Southern Nevadaโs water future. pic.twitter.com/JjuvUrHwuR
This week, temperature and precipitation patterns varied sharply across the country. Temperatures were generally warmer in the West and colder in the east, with much of the Cascades and Rocky Mountains running well above normal while the Midwest experienced much colder-than-normal conditions. Multiple Pacific storm systems brought widespread precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, falling as rain at lower elevations and snow in the mountains; however, despite recent snowfall, snowpack remains below normal for mid-December. East of the Rockies, precipitation was more limited and uneven, and where it did occur across the northern Plains and Midwest, it often fell as snow. As a result, drought conditions improved mainly across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Additional localized improvements occurred in parts of the Southeast, where lingering benefits from rainfall in prior weeks continued to support soil moisture and streamflows. In contrast, areas farther south and east that missed meaningful precipitation saw conditions persist or worsen. Across portions of the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, continued precipitation deficits and declining streamflows led to degradations. In the Midwest, colder temperatures limited precipitation to fall as snow, slowing hydrologic response and resulting in mostly localized changes…
The High Plains remained largely unchanged this week. Areas of less than one inch of precipitation fell across some areas of the Dakotas and northeastern Wyoming. In east-central South Dakota, this precipitation led to minor improvements with the removal of some abnormal dryness (D0). Nebraska, Colorado, and most of Kansas remained unchanged. In southeastern Kansas along the Kansas-Missouri border, hydrologic deficits led to further deterioration and the expansion of moderate drought (D1). In southeastern Wyoming, frequent strong winds and above-normal temperatures combined with continued lack of precipitation contributed to further degradation and the expansion of moderate drought (D1)…
Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending December 16, 2025.
Across the West, drought changes were mainly determined by precipitation. In Washington and northern Oregon, multiple Pacific storm systems, associated with atmospheric river moisture, brought widespread precipitation to the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation fell mainly as rain at lower elevations and snow in the mountains, contributing to ongoing flooding in parts of western Washington and supporting widespread one-class improvements along the coast and nearby interior areas. Since the end of November, snowpack in the Cascades has slightly improved, though snow water equivalent (SWE) values remain below normal for this time of year, particularly where warmer temperatures limited snow accumulation. Across central and southern Oregon and into northern California, conditions show rapid short-term drying. [I spoke with Jeff Deem (Airborne Snow Observatories Inc.) at the Colorado River Water Users Association conference last week and he said that he flew over Lake Tahoe recently and there was NO SNOW.] However, last-minute (Dec. 15-16) rainfall of 1 to 2 inches along Oregonโs coast was enough to bring improvements where it fell while the areas that missed out on the precipitation saw abnormal dryness (D0) expanded.
In the Northern Rockies, repeated precipitation supported one-class improvements across northern Idaho and northwestern Montana. Lower elevations experienced rain or mixed precipitation, while higher elevations received snow, leading to SWE improvements in northern and central Idaho and western Montana. Despite this weekโs precipitation, much of Idahoโs snowpack remains below normal with SWE at 70 percent of normal, while snowpack across western and central Montana showed the greatest improvement, with SWE near or above 90 percent of normal for this time of year. Farther east and south across central and western Montana, more widespread precipitation supported a swath of one-class improvements.
Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map December 18, 2025. via the NRCS.
Across the central Rocky Mountains of Wyoming and Colorado, conditions were more mixed. Portions of the north-central Rockies received enough snowfall to lead to localized improvements, with SWE in some headwater areas approaching near-normal early-season levels. Elsewhere, c. Across much of western and central Utah, SWE remains below 50 percent of normal, supporting one-class degradations in north-central and central Utah. In the Southwest, localized changes were made in New Mexico, with improvements in central New Mexico where longer-term precipitation from earlier periods continued show hydrologic improvement, while precipitation deficits led to the expansion of moderate drought (D1) in the southeast part of the state…
Drought conditions across the South generally worsened this week, as limited precipitation did little to improve the growing moisture deficits. Louisiana and some areas of Mississippi saw some improvements due to precipitation, including the removal of severe drought (D2) in west-central Louisiana. In Texas and Oklahoma, ongoing precipitation deficits led to further expansion of abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions. In south-central Texas, longer-term hydrologic stress continued and intensified with the expansion of severe (D2) and extreme drought (D3). Across Arkansas and Tennessee, despite cooler than normal temperatures, dry conditions continued to worsen with growing precipitation deficits, drying soils, and decreasing streamflows leading to the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1)…
Looking Ahead
According to the National Weather Serviceโs 5-day (Dec. 18-23) quantitative precipitation forecast, the heaviest precipitation is forecast across the West, particularly along the Pacific Northwest coast and into northern California, where widespread totals may exceed 5 inches in some areas. Additional moderate to heavy precipitation is expected across the Cascades and into parts of the northern Rockies, with totals generally ranging from 1 to 4 inches. Lighter but still notable precipitation is forecast to extend eastward into portions of the central Rockies and the northern Plains. Across the central and eastern U.S., precipitation is expected to be more scattered and generally lighter. Portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Gulf Coast may receive light to moderate precipitation, generally ranging from 0.5 to 2 inches. Farther east, a band of precipitation is indicated along parts of the East Coast, with locally higher amounts possible from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Northeast. Overall, the forecast highlights a wetter pattern in the West and more limited, variable precipitation across much of the central and eastern U.S.
The Climate Predictions Centerโs 6 to 10 day temperature outlook (Dec. 22โ26) shows an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the central and southern U.S., extending from the West Coast through the Plains and into the Southeast. The highest probabilities for above-normal temperatures are centered over the southern Plains and Southwest, with much of the interior West, Rockies, and central Plains also favored to be warmer than normal. Near-normal temperatures are indicated across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes. Below-normal temperatures are most likely across portions of the Northeast, particularly northern New England, while Alaska shows a strong signal for below-normal temperatures across much of the state. Hawaii is favored to see above-normal temperatures during the period. In terms of precipitation, the 6 to 10 day outlook indicates an increased likelihood of above-normal precipitation across much of the West, including California, the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Near- to above-normal precipitation probabilities also extend into parts of the interior West. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across much of the central Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Florida, with the strongest signal centered over the southern Plains and Gulf Coast region. Near-normal precipitation probabilities are indicated across parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast, while Alaska shows mixed signals, with below-normal precipitation favored in southern portions and near-normal conditions elsewhere.
US Drought Monitor one week change map ending December 16, 2025.
I apologize, I missed the first Session Friday, “Near-term analysis of Colorado River Basin Storage” with Eric Kuhn, Sarah Porter, and Jack Schmidt. Here’s the link to “Colorado River Insights 2025: Dancing with Deadpool“. Their contribution is in Chapter 1, “Colorado River Reservoir Storage โ Where We Stand”.
LAS VEGAS โย About [1,700] people from every corner of the Colorado River Basin flocked to the palm tree-lined Caesars Palace casino in Las Vegas this week thirsty for insights into the stalled negotiations over the future management of the river.
New insights, however, were sparse as of Tuesday morning.
The highly anticipated Colorado River Water Users Association conference is the largest river gathering of the year. Itโs a meet up where federal and state officials like to make big announcements about the water supply for 40 million people, and when farmers, tribal nations, city water managers, industrial representatives and environmental groups can swap strategies in hallway chats.
The meetings started Tuesday morning before the conference officially kicked off. Officials from basin states, including Colorado, set the tone by digging into their oft-repeated rhetoric about the worrisome conditions in the basin, impacts in their own states and conservation efforts. Conference-goers pushed state leaders for more transparency and progress in the discussions over the riverโs future.
The basinโs main reservoirs, lakes Mead and Powell, have fallen to historic lows despite pouring state and federal dollars into broad conservation efforts, said Commissioner Becky Mitchell, Coloradoโs governor-appointed negotiator on Colorado River issues.
โWeโre in a precarious time because none of that is enough,โ Mitchell told hundreds of audience members during an Upper Colorado River Commission meeting Tuesday. โIt has not been enough.โ
Natural flows โ which is a calculation of how much water would pass Lees Ferry without upstream human intervention โ has trended downward since the mid-1980s. Even before that, however, the river rarely carried as much water as the drafters of the 1922 Colorado River Compact presumed it did. They based the Compact on a median flow of 20 million acre-feet. The 1906-2025 median flow has actually been just 14.3 MAF, while the most recent six-year average has been just over 10 MAF. Data source: Bureau of Reclamation via The Land Desk.
As the riverโs water supply is strained by a 26-year drought and human demands, officials are trying to replace an expiring agreement from 2007, which manages how Mead and Powell capture water from upstream states and release it downstream for water users in Arizona, California, Nevada and Mexico.
The Department of the Interior is managing the effort, dubbed the post-2026 process, but deciding new rules is simpler said than done: Basin officials will have to address a changing climate and decide on painful water cuts going forward.
The Interior Department has given the seven basin states until Feb. 14 to reach a consensus. If they can agree, the feds will use the statesโ proposal to manage the basinโs reservoirs. If not, the federal officials will decide what to do.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall
Officials from the Upper Basin states โ Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming โ did not share examples of progress in the post-2026 negotiations. They said the basinโs water cycle, not its legal issues, are the main problem.
โItโs not political positions. Itโs not legal interpretations,โ Brandon Gebhart, Wyomingโs top negotiator, said. โItโs the hydrology of the entire basin.โ
Native America in the Colorado River Basin. Credit: USBR
Others, including some of the 30 tribes in the basin, saw it differently. Some tribal representatives called for more transparency. Others said they couldnโt support a plan that is geared toward sending water to downstream states.
โDespite those that think hydrology is the problem, itโs not, and it canโt always be the scapegoat,โ said Kirin Vicenti, water commissioner for the Jicarilla Apache Nation, located within New Mexico just south of the Colorado state line. โOur planning and policies must allow flexibility, and innovative and dynamic solutions.โ
Portion of a Roman aqueduct Barcelona, Spain, May 2025.
A basin divided by a Rome-inspired wall
Relationships between upstream states and Lower Basin states โ Arizona, California and Nevada โ have been strained since the post-2026 effort kicked into gear in 2022 and 2023.
On the other side of the casino wall from the Upper Basin meeting, the Colorado River Board of California met Tuesday morning. Each audience could hear muffled clapping from the other room as the officials spoke to their constituents.
โWe know one thing for sure, which is that we have a smaller river and that requires less use,โ JB Hamby, chairman of the Colorado River board and Californiaโs top negotiator, told the gathering.
He lauded Californiaโs โmassiveโ and expensive efforts to address the riverโs shrinking supply while still growing the stateโs economy and agriculture industry.
Lower Basin water use since 1964. 2025 data provisional, based on USBR projections Oct. 29, 2015.
California has cut its water use to 3.76 million acre-feet, the lowest it has been since 1949, state officials said. It has a proposed plan to conserve 440,000 acre-feet of river water per year.
One acre-foot roughly equals the annual water use of two to three households.
โWe hear lots of applause lines from our friends next door, and we encourage them to take some examples from what California has been able to put together,โ Hamby said. โWe must all live with the resources we have, not the ones that we wish for.โ
Crossing basin lines
While the states might be divided in water politics, conference attendees like Ken Curtis of Colorado moved between the rooms to hear each groupโs discussion.
โWe appear to be talking past each other,โ said Curtis, the general manager of the Dolores Water Conservancy District in southwestern Colorado.
Some water managers from central Utah said they were already looking beyond the current negotiations to the next few decades. The basinโs challenges donโt end next fall โ this is just a speed bump in a long future ahead, they said.
Others were waiting for updates from federal officials, scheduled for Wednesday. The Department of the Interior is set to release a highly anticipated look at different options for how to manage the basin around the end of the year.
Curtis said he is at the conference mainly to learn how other states were grappling with the tough water conditions and to get more insight into the negotiations beyond whatโs in the media, he said.
โSqueezing it (water) out of the Upper Basin isnโt going to make enough water for the Lower Basin demands,โ Curtis said. โAnd that may be a biased view, obviously, so Iโm trying to get a little bit beyond my own biases.โ
September 21, 1923, 9:00 a.m. — Colorado River at Lees Ferry. From right bank on line with Klohr’s house and gage house. Old “Dugway” or inclined gage shows to left of gage house. Gage height 11.05′, discharge 27,000 cfs. Lens 16, time =1/25, camera supported. Photo by G.C. Stevens of the USGS. Source: 1921-1937 Surface Water Records File, Colorado R. @ Lees Ferry, Laguna Niguel Federal Records Center, Accession No. 57-78-0006, Box 2 of 2 , Location No. MB053635.
The Colorado River Basin spans seven U.S. states and part of Mexico. Lake Powell, upstream from the Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, are the two principal reservoirs in the Colorado River water-supply system. (Bureau of Reclamation)
Click the link to read the discussion on the NOAA website:
December 11, 2025
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niรฑa Advisory
Synopsis: La Niรฑa is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (68% chance).
La Niรฑa persisted in November, as indicated by the continuation of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niรฑo-3.4 index value was -0.5ยฐC, with the other Niรฑo index values between -0.2ยฐC and -0.4ยฐC. Recent negative subsurface temperature anomalies weakened slightly (averaged from 180ยฐ-100ยฐW; but below-average temperatures continued from the surface to 200m depth in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. The tropical atmosphere reflected La Niรฑa, with low-level easterly wind anomalies evident in the central Pacific and upper-level westerly wind anomalies observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Enhanced convection persisted over Indonesia and suppressed convection was near the Date Line. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remains consistent with La Niรฑa.
The IRI multi-model predictions indicate La Niรฑa will continue in the December-February (DJF) 2025-26 season, but then ENSO-neutral is favored for January-March (JFM) 2026. Together with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, the team continues to slightly support a weak La Niรฑa through DJF (54% chance), before transitioning to ENSO-neutral in JFM. Even after equatorial Pacific SSTs transition to ENSO-neutral, La Niรฑa may still have some lingering influence through the early Northern Hemisphere spring 2026 (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niรฑa is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (68% chance).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niรฑo/La Niรฑa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 January 2026.
To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
The idea began in Californiaโs Sierra Nevada, a towering spine of rock and ice where rising temperatures and the decline of snowpack are transforming ecosystems, sometimes with catastrophic consequences for wildlife.
The prairie-doglike Beldingโs ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi) had been struggling there as the mountain meadows it relies on dry out in years with less snowmelt and more unpredictable weather. At lower elevations, the foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii) was also being hit hard by rising temperatures, because it needs cool, shaded streams to breed and survive.
A Beldingโs ground squirrel in the Sierra Nevada. Toni Lyn Morelli
As we studied these and other species in the Sierra Nevada, we discovered a ray of hope: The effects of warming werenโt uniform.
We were able to locate meadows that are less vulnerable to climate change, where the squirrels would have a better chance of thriving. We also identified streams that would stay cool for the frogs even as the climate heats up. Some are shaded by tree canopy. Others are in valleys with cool air or near deep lakes or springs.
These special areas are what we call climate change refugia.
Identifying these pockets of resilient habitat โ a field of research that was inspired by our work with natural resource managers in the Sierra Nevada โ is now helping national parks and other public and private land managers to take action to protect these refugia from other threats, including fighting invasive species and pollution and connecting landscapes, giving threatened species their best chance for survival in a changing climate.
In New England, managers at national parks and other protected areas were worried about how species are being affected by changes in climate and habitat. For example, the grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), a little grassland songbird that nests in the open fields in the eastern U.S. and southern Canada, appears to be in trouble.
We have been actively mapping refugia in British Columbia, looking for shadier, wetter or more sheltered places that naturally resist the worst effects of climate change.
Forests and wetlands used by moose and other wildlife are becoming more vulnerable to climate change as temperatures rise. Alexej Sirรฉn, Northeast Wildlife Monitoring Network
The mapping project will help to identify important habitat for wildlife such as moose and caribou. Knowing where these climate change refugia are allows land-use planners and Indigenous communities to protect the most promising habitats from development, resource extraction and other stressors.
On the sweeping vistas of East Africa, dozens of species interact in hot spots of global biodiversity. Unfortunately, rising temperatures, prolonged drought and shifting seasons are threatening their very existence.
In Tanzania, working with government agencies and conservation groups through past USAID funding, we mapped potential refugia for iconic savanna species including lions, giraffes and elephants. These areas include places that will hold water in drought and remain cooler during heat waves. The iconic Serengeti National Park, home to some of the worldโs most famous wildlife, emerged as a key location for climate change refugia.
In East Africa, climate change refugia remain cooler and hold water during droughts. Protecting them can help protect the regionโs iconic wildlife. Toni Lyn Morelli
Combining local knowledge with spatial analysis is helping prioritize areas where big cats, antelope, elephants and the other great beasts of the Serengeti ecosystem can continue to thrive โ provided other, nonclimate threats such as habitat loss and overharvesting are kept at bay.
The Tanzanian government has already been working with U.S.-funded partners to identify corridors that can help connect biodiversity hot spots.
Hope for the future
By identifying and protecting the places where species can survive the longest, we can buy crucial decades for ecosystems while conservation efforts are underway and the world takes steps to slow climate change.
Across continents and climates, the message is the same: Amid our rapidly warming world, pockets of resilience remain for now. With careful science and strong partnerships, we can find climate change refugia, protect them and help the wild things continue to thrive.
Palm trees in the Imperial Valley 2017. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots
Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Brian McNeece):
December 15, 2025
Where Colorado and other Upper-Basin states need to retreat from trying to develop full compact allocation. But Lower Basin states need to acknowledge Mother Nature.
This was published on Dec. 13, 2025, in theย Calexico Chronicle, a publication in Californiaโs Imperial Valley. It is reposted here with permission, and we asked for that permission because we thought it was an interesting explanation from a close observer who was reared in an area that uses by far the most amount of water in the Colorado River Basin.
This week is the annual gathering of โwater buffaloesโ in Las Vegas. Itโs the Colorado River Water Users Association convention. About 1,700 people will attend, but probably around 100 of them are the key people โ the government regulators, tribal leaders, and the directors and managers of the contracting agencies that receive Colorado River water.
Anyone who is paying attention knows that we are in critical times on the river. Temporary agreements on how to distribute water during times of shortage are expiring. Negotiators have been talking for several years but havenโt been able to agree on anything concrete.
Iโm just an observer, but Iโve been observing fairly closely. Within the limits on how much information I can get as an outsider, Iโd like to propose some principles or guidelines that I think are important for the negotiation process.
A. When Hoover Dam was proposed, the main debate was over whether the federal government or private concerns would operate it. Because the federal option prevailed, water is delivered free to contractors. Colorado River water contractors do not pay the actual cost of water being delivered to them. It is subsidized by the U.S. government. As a public resource, Colorado River water should not be seen as a commodity.
B. The Lower Basin states of Arizona, California, and Nevada should accept that the Upper Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming are at the mercy of Mother Nature for much of their annual water supply. While the 1922 Colorado River Compact allocates them 7.5 million acre-feet annually, in wet years, they have been able to use a maximum of 4.7 maf. During the long, ongoing drought, their annual use has been 3.5 maf. They shouldnโt have to make more cuts.
C. However, neither should the Upper Basin states be able to develop their full allocation. It should be capped at a feasible number, perhaps 4.2 maf. As compensation, Upper Basin agencies and farmers can invest available federal funds in projects to use water more efficiently and to reuse it so that they can develop more water.
D. Despite the drought, we know there will be some wet years. To compensate the Lower Basin states for taking all the cuts in dry years, the Upper Basin should release more water beyond the Compact commitments during wet years. This means that Lake Mead and Lower Basin reservoirs would benefit from wet years and Lake Powell would not. In short, the Lower Basin takes cuts in dry years; the Upper Basin takes cuts in wet years.
E. Evaporation losses (water for the angels) can be better managed by keeping more of the Lower Basinโs water in Upper Basin reservoirs instead of in Lake Mead, where the warmer weather means higher evaporation losses. New agreements should include provisions to move that water in the Lower Basin account down to Lake Mead quickly. Timing is of the essence.
H. In the Lower Basin states, shortages should be shared along the same lines as specified in the 2007 Interim Guidelines, with California being last to take cuts as Lake Mead water level drops.
I. On the home front, Imperial Irrigation District policy makers should make a long-term plan to re-set water rates in accord with original water district policy. Because the district is a public, non-profit utility, water rates were set so that farmers paid only the cost to deliver water. Farmers currently pay $20 per acre foot, but the actual cost of delivering water is $60 per acre foot. That subsidy of $60 million comes from the water transfer revenues.
J. The San Diego County Water Authority transfer revenues now pay farmers $430 per acre-foot of conserved water, mostly for drip or sprinkler systems. Akin to a grant program, this very successful program generated almost 200,000 acre-feet of conserved water last year. Like any grant program, it should be regularly audited for effectiveness.
K. Some of those transfer revenues should be invested in innovative cropping patterns, advanced technologies, and marketing to help the farming community adapt to a changing world. The Imperial Irrigation District should use its resources to help all farmers be more successful, not just a select group.
L. Currently, federal subsidies pay farmers not to use water via the Deficit Irrigation Program. We can lobby for those subsidies to continue, but we should plan for when they dry up. Any arrangement that rewards farmers but penalizes farm services such as seed, fertilizer, pesticide, land leveling, equipment, and other work should be avoided.
M. Though the Imperial Irrigation District has considerable funding from the districtโs QSA water transfers, it may need to consider issuing general obligation bonds as it did in its foundational days for larger water efficiency projects such as more local storage or a water treatment plant to re-use ag drain water.
Much progress has been made in using water more efficiently, especially in the Lower Basin states, but thereโs a lot more water to be saved, and I believe collectively that we can do it.
The Colorado River Basin spans seven U.S. states and part of Mexico. Lake Powell, upstream from the Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead, near Las Vegas, are the two principal reservoirs in the Colorado River water-supply system. (Bureau of Reclamation)
Native America in the Colorado River Basin. Credit: USBR
State leaders seek durable post-2026 plan and make significant contributions
December 16, 2025
Las Vegas โ Californiaโs water, tribal, and agricultural leaders today presented a comprehensive framework for a durable, basin-wide operating agreement for the Colorado River and highlighted the stateโs proposal for conserving 440,000 acre-feet of river water per year.
At the annual Colorado River Water Users Association conference, California underscored the stateโs leadership in conservation, collaboration, and long-term stewardship of shared water resources that inform its approach to post-2026 negotiations.
California takes a balanced approach, relying on contributions from the upper and lower basins to maintain a shared resource. California supports hydrology-based flexibility for river users, with all states contributing real water savings. Any viable framework would need to include transparent and verifiable accounting for conserved water, along with several other elements outlined in the California framework.
State leaders also noted that they are willing to set aside many of their legal positions to reach a deal, including releases from Lake Powell under the Colorado River Compact, distribution of Lower Basin shortages, and other provisions of the Law of the River, provided that there are equitable and sufficient water contributions from every state in the Basin and the country of Mexico.
Constructive California
โCalifornia is leading with constructive action,โ said JB Hamby, chairman of the Colorado River Board of California. โWe have reduced our water use to the lowest levels since the 1940s, invested billions to modernize our water systems and develop new supplies, partnered with tribes and agricultural communities, and committed to real water-use reductions that will stabilize the river. We are doing our part โ and we invite every state to join us in this shared responsibility.โ
Despite being home to 20 million Colorado River-reliant residents and a farming region that produces the majority of Americaโs winter vegetables, Californiaโs use of Colorado River water is projected at 3.76 million acre-feet in 2025 โ the lowest since 1949.
That achievement comes on top of historic reductions in water use over the past 20 years, led by collaborative conservation efforts. Urban Southern California cut imported water demand in half while adding almost 4 million residents. And farms reduced water use by more than 20% while sustaining more than $3 billion in annual output. Tribes also have made critical contributions, including nearly 40,000 acre-feet of conserved water by the Quechan Indian Tribe to directly support river system stability.
Going forward, California is prepared to reduce water use by 440,000 acre-feet per year โ in addition to existing long-standing conservation efforts โ as part of the Lower Basinโs proposal to conserve up to 1.5 million acre-feet per year, which would include participation by Mexico. When conditions warrant, California is also committed to making additional reductions to address future shortages as part of a comprehensive basin-state plan.
The stateโs history of conservation illustrates what can be accomplished through collaboration, and all Colorado River water users in California are preparing to contribute to these reductions โ agricultural agencies, urban agencies, and tribes.
Framework for a Post-2026 Agreement
In addition to conservation contributions, California provided a framework of principles for the post-2026 river operating guidelines to advance a shared solution for the seven Basin States, the tribes and Mexico. More specifically, California outlined the following key components for a new framework:
Lake Powell releases โย California supports a policy of hydrology-based, flexible water releases that protects both Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Flexibility must be paired with appropriate risk-sharing across basins, avoiding disproportionate impacts to any one region.
Upper Initial Units (Colorado River Storage Project Act) โย Releases should be made when needed to reduce water supply and power risks to both basins.
Shared contributions โย The Lower Basinโs proposed 1.5 million acre-feet per year contribution to address the structural deficit, including an equitable share from Mexico (subject to binational negotiations), is the first enforceable offer on the table. When hydrology demands more, participation by all seven Basin States is essential.
Interstate exchangesย โ Interstate exchanges need to be part of any long-term solution to encourage interstate investments in new water supply projects that may not be economically viable for just one state or agency.
Operational flexibilityย โ Continued ability to store water in Lake Mead is vital to maintain operational flexibility. California supports continuation and expansion of water storage in Lake Mead as a long-term feature of river management and to encourage conservation. We also support Upper Basin pools for conservation, allowing similar benefits.
Phasing of a long-term agreement โย California supports a long-term operating agreement with adaptive phases. Tools like water storage in Lake Mead and Lake Powell need to extend beyond any initial period due to significant investments required to store conserved water in the reservoirs.
Protections and federal support:ย Any agreement should be supported with federal funding and any necessary federal authorities, allow agriculture and urban areas to continue to thrive, protect tribal rights, and address the environment, including the environmentally sensitive Salton Sea.
โThere are no easy choices left, but California has always done what is required to protect the river,โ said Jessica Neuwerth, executive director of the Colorado River Board of California. โWe have proven that conservation and growth can coexist. We have shown that reductions can be real, measurable, and durable. And we have demonstrated how states, tribes, cities, and farms can work together to build a sustainable future for the Colorado River.โ
What California agencies are saying:
โThe future of the Colorado River is vital to California โ and our nation. As the fourth largest economy in the world, we rely on the Colorado River to support the water needs of millions of Californians and our agricultural community which feeds the rest of the nation. California is doing more with less, maintaining our economic growth while using less water in our urban and agricultural communities. We have cut our water use to its lowest levels in decades and are investing in diverse water supply infrastructure throughout California, doing our part to protect the Colorado River for generations to come. We look forward to continued discussions with our partners across the West to find the best path forward to keep the Colorado River healthy for all those who rely on it.โ โ Wade Crowfoot, Secretary, California Natural Resources
โMetropolitanโs story is one of collaboration, of finding common ground. We have forged partnerships across California and the Basin โ with agriculture, urban agencies and tribes. And through that experience, we know that we can build a comprehensive Colorado River Agreement that includes all seven states and the country of Mexico. We must reach a consensus. That is the only option.โ โ Adรกn Ortega, Jr., Chair, Metropolitan Water District Board of Directors
โCaliforniaโs leadership is grounded in results, and the Imperial Valley is proud to contribute to that record. Our growers have created one of the most efficient agricultural regions in the Basinโcutting use by over 20% while supporting a $3 billion farm economy that feeds America. Since 2003, IID has conserved more than nine million acre-feet, and with the Colorado River as our sole water supply, we remain firmly committed to constructive, collaborative solutions that protect Americaโs hardest-working river.โย โ Gina Dockstader, Chairwoman, Imperial Irrigation District
โThe path to resiliency requires innovation, cooperation, and every Basin stateโs commitment to conservation. The San Diego County Water Authority supports an approach that provides flexibility to adapt to changing climate conditions. That means developing a new framework that allows for interstate water transfers to move water where itโs most needed and incentivizes the development of new supplies for augmentation.โ โ CRB Vice Chair Jim Madaffer, San Diego County Water Authority
โPalo Verde Irrigation District is committed to maintaining a healthy, viable river system into the future. We at PVID have always gone above and beyond in supporting the river in times of need. Since 2023 our 95,000-acre valley, in collaboration with Metropolitan and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation have committed over 351,000 acre-feet of verifiable wet water to support the river system and Lake Mead. It is important to our stakeholders in the Palo Verde Valley and all of California that Colorado River water continues to meet the needs of both rural and urban areas. We must find workable solutions that keep food on peopleโs plates and water running thru the faucets of homes.โ โ Brad Robinson, Board President, Palo Verde Irrigation Districtย
โCalifornia continues to lead in conservation and collaboration, setting the standard for innovation and sustainability. Together, we strive to ensure reliability for millions of people, tribes, and acres of farmland. For decades, CVWD has invested in conservation efficiency, alongside investments from growers. Additionally, we have saved more than 118,000 acre-feet of Colorado River water since 2022 โ underscoring our shared commitment to long-term sustainability. CVWD remains dedicated to finding collaborative solutions to protect the riverโs health and stability.โ โ Peter Nelson, Board Director, Coachella Valley Water District
โAs stewards of the Colorado River since time immemorial, our Tribe is committed to protecting the river for the benefit of our people and all of the communities and ecosystems that rely on it. We believe partnerships and collaboration, such as our agreement with Metropolitan Water District and the Bureau of Reclamation to conserve over 50,000 acre-feet of our water in Lake Mead between 2023 and 2026, are essential to ensure that we have a truly living river.โ โ President Jonathan Koteen, Fort Yuma Quechan Indian Tribe
โBard Water District remains committed to continued system conservation and responsible water management. While small in size, the District continues to make meaningful contributions to regional sustainability efforts on the Colorado River.โ โ Ray Face, Board President, Bard Water District
โLADWP is dedicated to delivering and managing a water supply that prioritizes resilience, high quality, and cost-effectiveness. These investments illustrate that achieving urban water resiliency is indeed feasible.โ โ Dave Pettijohn, Water Resources Director, Los Angeles Department of Water & Power
Water shooting out of Glen Canyon Damโs river outlets โ as opposed to the penstocks and hydroelectric turbines โ in autumn 2025. The releases were part of the Cool Flow project that is intended to lower the temperature of the river downstream of the dam to protect native fish by disrupting non-native smallmouth bass spawning. The releases diminished hydroelectric output, forcing the Western Area Power Administration to spend over $25 million over two years to purchase replacement electricity on the open market. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
A new report from the Colorado River Research Group, aptly named โDancing with Deadpool,โ paints a grim picture of the critical artery of the Southwest. Reservoir and groundwater levels are perilously low, the 25-year megadrought is likely to persist โ perhaps for decades, and the collective users of the river have yet to develop a workable plan for cutting consumption and balancing demand with the riverโs dwindling supply.
Amid all the darkness however, the report also delivers a few glimmers of hope, noting that mechanisms do exist to avert a full-blown crisis, and that humans do have the power to slow or halt human-cased global heating, which is one of the main drivers of reduced flows in the river.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall
Those reduced flows seem like a good place to start, since the Colorado River Basin is experiencing the very phenomenon that Jonathan Overpeck and Brad Udall write about in the second chapter, โThink Natural Flows Will Rebound in the Colorado River Basin? Think Again.โ
Natural flows โ which is a calculation of how much water would pass Lees Ferry without upstream human intervention โ has trended downward since the mid-1980s. Even before that, however, the river rarely carried as much water as the drafters of the 1922 Colorado River Compact presumed it did. They based the Compact on a median flow of 20 million acre-feet. The 1906-2025 median flow has actually been just 14.3 MAF, while the most recent six-year average has been just over 10 MAF. Data source: Bureau of Reclamation.
The authors call the Southwest โmegadrought country,โ since tree rings and other sources show that severe, multi-decadal dry spells โ like the one gripping the region currently โ have occurred somewhat regularly over the last 2,000 years. The current drought, then, is likely a part of this natural climate variability.
But thereโs a catch: The previous megadroughts most likely resulted from, primarily, a lack of precipitation. The current dry-spell is also due to lack of precipitation, but it is intensified by warming temperatures, which are the clear and direct result of climate change. They also find evidence that climate change may also be exacerbating the current climate deficit.
The takeaway is that even when we move through the current dry part of the cycle, the increasingly higher temperatures will offset some of the added precipitation and continue to diminish Colorado River flows. And, when the natural cycle comes back around to the drought side, itโs going to be even worse thanks to climate change.
Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map December 16, 2025.
Water year 2026 is so far looking like an example of the former, with normal to above-normal precipitation accumulating, but as rain, not as snow, leaving much of the West with far below normal snowpack levels.
If the trend continues, it will not bode well for the Colorado River, according to the chapter written by Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, and Katherine Tara. In an updated version of aย paper they put out in September, they find that if water year 2026 (which weโre about 2.5 months into) is anything like water year 2025, Lake Powell is in trouble, and โlow reservoir levels in summer 2026 will challenge water supply management, hydropower production, and environmental river management.โ
The top water users on the Lower Colorado River Basin. Imperial Irrigation District in southern California once again tops the list. But itโs notable how much consumption theyโve cut since 2003; the IID is expected to use even less water in 2025. Nevada is broken out as a state here because of the way the accounting works. Nearly all of Nevadaโs Colorado River allocation goes to Southern Nevada and the Las Vegas metro area. Data source: Bureau of Reclamation.
In order to avoid a full-blown crisis in the near-term, Colorado River users must significantly and quickly cut water consumption โ independent of whatever agreement the states come up with for dividing the riverโs dwindling waters after 2026.
While there is a long-running debate over whether the Upper Basin or the Lower Basin will have to bear the brunt of those cuts, the math makes it indisputable that the agricultural sector in both basins will have to pare down its collective consumption. Thatโs because irrigated agriculture accounts for about 74% of all direct human consumptive use on the River, or about three times more than municipal, commercial, and industrial uses.
Chart showing how water from the Colorado River is used. Source: โNew accounting reveals why the Colorado River no longer reaches the sea,โ by Brian Richter et al.
Thatโs why, in recent years, the feds and states have paid farmers to stop irrigating some crops and fallow their fields. While this method has achieved meaningful cuts in overall water use in those areas, it is in most cases not sustainable because the deals are temporary, and because they rely on iffy federal funding. So, in another of the reportโs chapters, Kathryn Sorensen and Sarah Porter offer a different proposal: The federal government should simply purchase land from willing sellers and stop irrigating it (or at least compensate landowners for agreeing to stop or curtail irrigation permanently).
They emphasize that this is not a โbuy-and-dryโ proposition, where a city buys out the water rights of farms to serve more development. That doesnโt actually save any water, since the city is still using it, and it wrecks farms and communities. Instead, this proposal would actually convert the farmland into public land, and put the water back into the river. This proposed program would target high-water-use, low economic-water-productivity land in situations where the water savings would benefit the environment and the land transfer would help local communities.
Even then, this would be disruptive, in that it would take land out of agriculture and potentially remove farms โ and the farmers โ from the community. There would also be the question of how toย manage the freshly fallowed fieldsย so that they donโt become weed-infested wastelands or sources of airborne, snow-melting dust.
In the following chapter, a quartet of authors suggests a slightly softer approach, in which farmers adapt to dwindling water amounts by shifting crops or to reduce cattle herd sizes or approaches.
The report concludes with a call for a basin-wide approach to managing the Colorado River, and the creation of an entity that would address Colorado River issues in a more comprehensive, transparent, and inclusive way. The current approach, which arbitrarily cuts the watershed in half along an imaginary line, pitting one set of states against another while excluding sovereign tribal nations, and trying to operate within an outdated framework known as the Law of the River, is an opaque mess that has thus far resulted only in gridlock.
The authors propose, instead:
And, finally, a little smidgeon of hope from the reportโs second chapter, although itโs hard to be hopeful about reversing climate change in times like these and with a presidential administration intent on burning more and more fossil fuels โฆ
Remote camera image of a wolf pup taken during the summer of 2025. Source: Colorado Parks & Wildlife.
๐ฆซ Wildlife Watch ๐ฆ
The News:Colorado Parks and Wildlife last week thanked New Mexico wildlife officials for successfully capturing gray wolf 2403, a member of Coloradoโs Copper Creek pack that had roamed over the state line. The wolf was re-released in Grand County, Colorado, where officials hope it will find a mate.
The Context: WTF!? Are these folks trying to bring an extirpated species back to a state similar to the one that existed before it was systematically slaughtered โ i.e. the โnaturalโ state โ or are they running a zoo?
The CPW said that the wolfโs capture was in compliance with an agreement with bordering states that is purportedly intended to โprotect the genetic integrity of the Mexican wolf recovery program, while also establishing a gray wolf population in Colorado.โ
Iโm no wildlife biologist, but it sure does seem to me that if a gray wolf from Colorado heads to New Mexico in search of a mate, as is their instinctual tendency, then thatโs a good thing. And trying to confine the wolves to artificial and arbitrary political boundaries is counterproductive.
โHistorically, gray wolf populations in western North America were contiguously distributed from northern arctic regions well into Mesoamerica as far south as present day Mexico Cityโ explained David Parsons, former Mexican Wolf Recovery Coordinator for the US Fish and Wildlife Service in a written statement. โThe exchange of genes kept gray wolf populations both genetically and physically healthy, enhancing their ability to adapt and evolve to environmental changes.โ He added that 2403โs walkabout, along with that of โTaylor,โ the Mexican gray wolf that has defied attempts to constrain him to southern New Mexico by traveling into the Mt. Taylor region, were โsimply retracing ancient pathways of wolf movements. Rather than being viewed as a problem, these movements should be encouraged and celebrated as successful milestones toward west-wide gray wolf recovery efforts.โ
Amen to that.
Itโs clearly very tough to run a predator reintroduction program in the rural West, fraught as it is with political and cultural complications. And I respect and admire the folks that are running the project, and understand they are working within serious constraints. Still, there has to be a better way to let nature run its course.
Screenshot from Kestrel Kunz’s presentation at the CRWUA 2023 Annual Conference.
I’m in Las Vegas for the 2025 Colorado River Water Users Association annual conference! Follow along on the CRWUA Twitter (X) feed: https://x.com/CRWUA_water. Take a look back at our LinkedIn, blog, and Instagram posts from this year.
Colorado River “Beginnings”. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism
December 15, 2025
The effort to permanently protect the historic Shoshone water rights gained additional momentum as two more west slope communities committed funding in their 2026 budgets toward the Colorado River Districtโs $99 million purchase agreement with Xcel Energy. The Town of Breckenridge has pledged $100,000, and the Town of Gypsum has committed $15,000, underscoring the importance of reliable Colorado River flows for communities from the headwaters to the state line and beyond.
By committing financial support for the Shoshone Water Rights Preservation Project, Breckenridge and Gypsum join a large and growing coalition of Western Slope partners working to safeguard flows that support local economies, healthy rivers, and long-term water security for Colorado.
Breckenridge circa 1913 via Breckenridge Resort
โThe Shoshone water rights are a cornerstone of the Colorado River system and a critical part of protecting our quality of life in the high country,โ said Breckenridge Mayor Kelly Owens. โBreckenridge is proud to stand with partners across the West Slope and headwaters region to keep water in the river, support our outdoor recreation economy, and protect this vital resource for generations to come.โ
Town of Gypsum via Vail.net
โLook, in Gypsum we see it every single day, our local ranches, our jobs, our families all depend on the Eagle and the Colorado running strong and flowing,โ said Gypsum Mayor Steve Carver. โBacking Shoshone just makes sense. It gives us some certainty when water gets tight. Weโre happy to jump in with everybody else and keep that water right here on the Western Slope.โ
The Shoshone Water Rights Preservation Coalition, led by the Colorado River District, now includes 35 local governments, water entities, and regional partners across the Western Slope, as well as support from across the state. Together, these partners have committed over $37.3 million toward the $99 million purchase price, in addition to state and federal investments to protect a critical piece of Coloradoโs water security.
โCommunities across the West Slope continue to step up together in a powerful way,โ said Andy Mueller, general manager of the Colorado River District. โSupport from Breckenridge and Gypsum reflects a shared understanding that Shoshone is about more than one community or region. Itโs about working together to keep the Colorado River and its tributaries flowing for the environment, agriculture, recreation and local communities across Colorado that rely on this water.โ
Shoshone Hydroelectric Plant back in the days before I-70 via Aspen Journalism
The Shoshone hydroelectric plant, located in Glenwood Canyon, holds nonconsumptive senior water rights that date back to 1902. These rights are essential for supporting flows in the Colorado River, benefiting agriculture, recreation, rural economies, and water users across the West Slope and beyond.
In December 2023, the Colorado River District entered a purchase and sale agreement with Xcel Energy to acquire and permanently protect the water rights, with plans to negotiate an instream flow agreement with the Colorado Water Conservation Board. This agreement would safeguard future flows, regardless of the Shoshone plantโs operational status.
In January 2025, the Bureau of Reclamation awarded $40 million in federal funding through a program authorized by the Inflation Reduction Act. The River District continues to work with the Bureau and remains optimistic that the projectโs broad support and clear public benefit will secure the necessary federal funds to complete this once-in-a-generation investment.
Learn more about the Shoshone Water Rights Preservation Project & Coalition at KeepShoshoneFlowing.org.
The Colorado River Water Conservation District spans 15 Western Slope counties. Colorado River District/Courtesy image
Aldo Leopold, Colorado River delta, Baja California, Mexico Credit: Courtesy Aldo Leopold Foundation and the University of Wisconsin-Madison Archives
Click the link to read the article on the AZCentral.com website (Brandon Loomis). Here’s an excerpt:
December 15, 2025
Key Points
Seven states and 30 tribes that depend on the Colorado River are looking for ways to share a shrinking resource, but environmental groups fear little will be left for the river itself.
A wetlands at the end of the river and a fishery at its midpoint show what can happen when water is managed to preserve nature’s needs.
Growing demand on the river and competing interests, including electric power providers, could force negotiators for the states to confront difficult decisions.
CIรNEGA DE SANTA CLARA, Mexico โ The rusty observation tower at the edge of this wastewater-fed marsh offers an osprey-eye view of two possible futures for the parched and overworked Colorado River. To one side,ย the marshย spreads across more than 20 square miles of pools and islands choked with cattails and phragmites, convoys of pelicans descending and splashing down for a rest on their journey south from the Great Salt Lake or other western waters. Dragonflies hover below, while a fish hawk circles above, scanning the open water between the reeds. This is a vision of a future in which partners across the Western United States and Mexico save enough water that they can spare some for nature, even if it means irrigating it with the salty dregs. On the towerโs other side, boundless flats of sand and cracked mud spread to the horizon across what was, prior to the riverโs damming a century ago, one of Earthโs great green estuaries.
Colorado River Dry Delta, terminus of the Colorado River in the Sonoran Desert of Baja California and Sonora, Mexico, ending about 5 miles north of the Sea of Cortez (Gulf of California). Date: 12 January 2009. Source http://gallery.usgs.gov/photos/10_15_2010_rvm8Pdc55J_10_15_2010_0#.Ur0mcvfTnrd. Photographer: Pete McBride, U.S. Geological Survey
Jennifer Pitt leaned against a rail atop the tower and scanned that dusty horizon. A century ago, she said, the river had meandered so widely and soaked so much verdant ground there that the naturalist Aldo Leopold had written in โA Sand County Almanacโ that โthe river was nowhere and everywhere,โ unable to โdecide which of a hundred green lagoons offered the most pleasant and least speedy path to the Gulf (of California).โ
Now the Grand Riverโs delta supports just a handful of green lagoons, all fed either by wastewater or by targeted environmental irrigation. Pitt leads the Audubon Societyโs Colorado River program. She has toiled for decades alongside American and Mexican conservationists to rebuild slivers of living delta from whatโs left of the water after dams, farm ditches and growing cities divert most of the great river along its 1,450-mile route from the Rocky Mountains toward its dry mouth on the Sea of Cortez near here. A century ago, the river would have wandered a soaked delta teeming with birds, jaguars and legendary biodiversity. Now, a wastewater marsh must do the ecological heavy lifting.
Jennifer Pitt and Brad Udall at the Getches-Wilkinson Center/Water and Tribes Initiative conference June 5, 2025. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots
โIf we canโt prioritize taking care of a place like this, I fear for our ability to take care of ourselves,โ Pitt said.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2025. Note the tiny points on the annual data so that you can flyspeck the individual years. Credit: Brad Udall
The next few months will be a turning point in efforts to preserve a measure of nature here and across the riverโs length, as the seven U.S. states that split the bulk of the water struggle to reach a new deal among themselves that could also determine how much water is available to nurse a remnant of the riverโs own environment. Federal officials have said Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is prepared to impose his own cuts if the states canโt reach their own deal, and have said they need a negotiated plan by late winter to avoid that outcome. More than two decades of โmegadrought,โ unprecedented in U.S. history, have left little wiggle room for year-to-year operations. Reservoirs that were near their 58.48 million-acre-foot capacity in 2000 began the 2026 water year on Oct. 1, with just 21.8 million acre-feet behind the dams. Each acre-foot contains about 326,000 gallons and is roughly enough to support three households for a year, though the bulk of the water flows to the regionโs farms.
Jennifer Pitt, the National Audubon Society’s Colorado River program director, paddles a kayak through a restoration site. (Source: Jesus Salazar, Raise the River)
Both scenarios were unusual โ and they were largely directed by the polar jet stream.
What is a jet stream?
Jet streams are narrow bands of high-speed winds in the upper troposphere, around four to eight miles (seven to 13 kilometers) above the surface of the Earth, flowing west to east around the entire planet. They form where strong temperature contrasts exist.
Each hemisphere hosts two primary jet streams:
The polar and subtropical jet streams in positions similar to much of summer 2025. NOAA
The polar jet stream is typically found near 50 to 60 degrees latitude, across Canada in the Northern Hemisphere, where cold polar air meets warmer midlatitude air. It plays a major role in modulating weather systems in the midlatitudes, including the continental U.S. With winds up to 200 mph, itโs also the usual steering force that brings those bitter cold storms down from Canada.
The subtropical jet stream is typically closer to 30 degrees latitude, which in the Northern Hemisphere crosses Florida. It follows the boundary between tropical air masses and subtropical air masses. Itโs generally the weaker and steadier of the two jet streams.
A cross section of atmospheric circulations shows where the jet streams exist between large cells of rising and falling air, movements largely driven by solar heating in the tropics. NOAA
Stronger (faster) jet streams can intensify storm systems, whereas weaker (slower) jet streams can stall storm systems, leading to prolonged rainfall and flooding.
2025โs intense summer of flooding
Most summers, the polar jet stream retreats northward into Canada and weakens considerably, leaving the continental U.S. with calmer weather. When rainstorms pop up, theyโre typically caused by localized convection due to uneven heating of the land โ picture afternoon pop-up thunderstorms.
During the summer of 2025, however, the polar jet stream shifted unusually far south and steered larger storm systems into the midlatitudes of the U.S. At the same time, the jet stream weakened, with two critical consequences.
First, instead of moving storms quickly eastward, the sluggish jet stream stalled storm systems in place, causing prolonged downpours and flash flooding.
Second, a weak jet stream tends to meander more dramatically. Its broad north-south swings in summer 2025 funneled humid air from the Gulf of Mexico deep into the interior, supplying storm systems with abundant moisture and intensifying rainfall.
Search-and-rescue crews look for survivors in Texas Hill Country after a devastating July 4, 2025, flash flood on the Guadalupe River swept through a girlsโ camp, tearing walls off buildings. Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
This moisture surge was amplified by unusually warm conditions over the Atlantic and Gulf regions. A warmer ocean evaporates more water, and warmer air holds a greater amount of moisture. As a result, extraordinary levels of atmospheric moisture were directed into storm systems, fueling stronger convection and heavier precipitation.
Finally, the wavy jet stream became locked in place by persistent high-pressure systems, anchoring storm tracks over the same regions. This led to repeated episodes of heavy rainfall and catastrophic flooding across much of the continental U.S. The same behavior can leave other regions facing days of unrelenting heat waves.
The jet stream buffered US in hurricane season
The jet stream also played a role in the 2025 hurricane season.
Given its west-to-east wind direction, the southward dip of the jet stream โ along with a weak high pressure system over the Atlantic โ helped steer all five hurricanes away from the U.S. mainland.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane seasonโs storm tracks show how most of the storms steered clear of the U.S. mainland and veered off into the Atlantic. Sandy14156/Wikimedia Commons
Most of the yearโs 13 tropical storms and hurricanes veered off into the Atlantic before even reaching the Caribbean.
A higher temperature contrast leads to stronger jet streams. As the planet warms, the Arctic is heating up at more than twice the global average rate, and that is reducing the equator-to-pole temperature difference. As that temperature gradient weakens, jet streams lose their strength and become more prone to stalling.
This increases the risk of persistent extreme rainfall events.
Weaker jet streams also meander more, producing larger waves and more erratic behavior. This increases the likelihood of unusual shifts, such as the southward swing of the jet stream in the summer of 2025.
A recent study found that amplified planetary waves in the jet streams, which can cause weather systems to stay in place for days or weeks, are occurring three times more frequently than in the 1950s.
Whatโs ahead?
As the global climate continues to warm, extreme weather events driven by erratic behavior of jet streams are expected to become more common. Combined with additional moisture that warmer oceans and air masses supply, these events will intensify, producing storms that are more frequent and more destructive to societies and ecosystems.
In the short term, the polar jet stream will be shaping the winter ahead. It is most powerful in winter, when it dips southward into the central and even southern U.S., driving frequent storm systems, blizzards and cold air outbreaks.
