#Colorado Water Trust Writing Contest — @COWaterTrust

From email from the Colorado Water Trust (Barrett Donavan):

Here are the details:

  • Write a maximum 300-wordย story about a river (or rivers) in Colorado.
  • Stories should inspire your fellow Coloradans to love and care about Coloradoโ€™s rivers.
  • Submissions may be poetry or prose and silly, serious, or sweet. You can do a fairytale, a real river story, or anything in between. It can be as short as you like, but no more than 300 words. Title not included in word count. The field is wide open! Have fun! The more creative the better!
  • Illustrations and/or photos are welcome but not required.
  • You may submit more than one entry and all ages of writers are encouraged.
  • Entries should be emailedย by Friday April 19th at 11:59 PM MT to Barrett Donovan atย bdonovan@coloradowatertrust.org.

We have four great judges who will choose the top five stories. First, second, and third place winners will receive an awesome prize, and all top five submissions will be shared on our website, in our newsletter, and on our social media accounts.

The Judges:

  • Anne Castle: Senior Fellow, Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado; US Commissioner, Upper Colorado River Commission; Water Trust Board of Directors
  • Luke Runyon:ย Journalist; Co-director of The Water Desk at the University of Colorado’s Center for Environmental Journalism
  • Radha Marcum:ย Poet and writer with a focus on the intersection of the environment, culture, and personal history
  • Amelia Marsh:ย Editor in Chief, University of Denver Water Law Review

Judgingย Criteria:

  • River Inspiration:ย Your story must inspire readers to love and care for their Colorado rivers.
  • Quality of Story:ย Entries must tell a story, including a main character of some kind and a true story arc even if itโ€™s tiny. Entries must not be merely descriptions or mood pieces.
  • Quality of Writing:ย If youโ€™re going to rhyme, give us your best. Overall writing quality and use of language are also important.
  • Originality and Creativity:ย These two elements are often what sets one story above another. You will want yours to stand out from the crowd!

2024 #COleg: #Colorado lawmakers approve resolution backing efforts to restore #GrandLakeโ€™s clarity — Fresh Water News

Grand Lake and Mount Craig. CC BY 2.5, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=814879

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Jerd Smith):

Colorado lawmakers OKโ€™d a measure this week backing efforts to restore Grand Lake, the stateโ€™s deepest natural lake once known for its clear waters.

Advocates hope the resolution will help fuel statewide support for the complicated work involved in restoring the lake and give them leverage with the federal government to secure funding for a new fix.

The resolution is largely symbolic and doesnโ€™t come with any money, but it adds to the growing coalition of water interests on the Western Slope and Front Range backing the effort.

After more than a year of work, Mike Cassio, president of the Three Lakes Watershed Association, said he is hopeful the resolution will create a new path forward after years of bureaucratic stalemate. The association advocates on behalf of Grand Lake, Shadow Mountain and Lake Granby.

โ€œItโ€™s been a long process, but this resolution puts the state legislators in support of what we are trying to do and we will be able to take that to our congressional representatives,โ€ Cassio said.

The measure was carried by Sen. Dylan Roberts, a Democrat from Frisco, and House Speaker Julie McCluskie, a Democrat from Dillon.

โ€œIโ€™m really encouraged with all the work that has been done in the past few months and I think it will hopefully lead to more progress,โ€ Roberts said.

Colorado-Big Thompson Project map. Courtesy of Northern Water.

Owned by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and operated by Northern Water, whatโ€™s known as the Colorado-Big Thompson Project gathers water from streams and rivers in Rocky Mountain National Park and Grand County, and stores it in Lake Granby and Shadow Mountain Reservoir. From there it is eventually moved into Grand Lake and delivered via the Adams Tunnel under the Continental Divide to Carter Lake and Horsetooth Reservoir, just west of Berthoud and Fort Collins, respectively.

On the Front Range, the water serves more than 1 million people and thousands of acres of irrigated farmlands. But during the pumping process on the Western Slope, algae and sediment are carried into Grand Lake, clouding its formerly clear waters and causing algae blooms and weed growth, and harming recreation.

Advocates have long been frustratedย at the failure to find a permanent fix to the lakeโ€™s clarity issues, whether itโ€™s through a major redesign of the giant federal system or operational changes.

The Bureau of Reclamation, Northern Water, Grand County and other agencies and local groups have been working since 2008 to find a way to keep the lake clearer, and Northern Water and others have experimented with different pumping patterns and other techniques to reduce disturbances to the lakeโ€™s waters.

Now an even broader coalition has come together, Cassio said, led by Grand County commissioners and Northern Waterโ€™s board of directors.

โ€œNorthern Water is fully committed to the continued and collaborative exploration of options to improve clarity in Grand Lake and water quality in the three lakes,โ€ said Esther Vincent, Northern Waterโ€™s director of environmental services.

Last year, a technical working group reconvened, and is now studying new fixes that may be possible, including taking steps to reduce algae growth and introduce aeration in Shadow Mountain, a shallow artificial reservoir whose warm temperatures, weeds and sediment loads do the most damage to Grand Lake, Cassio said.

Though much more work lies ahead, the work at the legislature is critical, he said.

โ€œThis resolution is one piece of the puzzle,โ€ Cassio said. โ€œWeโ€™re at the finish line and everybody is coming together. Itโ€™s a wonderful thing.โ€

More by Jerd SmithJerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email at jerd@wateredco.org or @jerd_smith.

Keep this word in mind when reading about water: agronomics — Allen Best (@BigPivots)

The Western Canal near Platteville during an autumn sunset. Photo/Allen Best

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

February 25, 2024

Colorado Water Centerโ€™s John Tracy said weโ€™re in a new phase of understanding water. Itโ€™s not building dams or canals. Itโ€™s not new technology. Itโ€™s something else.

In January, when John Tracy began his lecture at the Colorado Farm Show in Greeley, he had a modest-sized audience.

Outside of the meeting room, in the central exhibition hall at Island Grove Regional Park, concessionaires hawked everything from paintings of wheat harvest and other flag-draped farm scenes to the latest in technology products.

Credit: John Deere

John Deere had implements. I crawled inside the cabin of a chemical applicator. It was full of computer screens and, I surmised, air conditioned. I inquired as to the cost: $900,000. This wasnโ€™t the John Deere my grandfather drove.

Thinking about water and agriculture has also changed dramatically since I tagged along in the early 1960s after my grandfather amid his fields of corn, sugar beets, and alfalfa in northeastern Colorado.

Tracy, who directs the Colorado Water Center, a small research enterprise affiliated with Colorado State University, characterized that shift as analogous to what happened in energy.

โ€œBack in the โ€˜80s, there was this rhetoric that we need to produce more energy,โ€ he said. โ€œWeโ€™re going to need to mine more coal, get more hydropower online, you name it.โ€

In the Columbia River Basin, where he was, the push for new energy generation resulted in heavy investment in nuclear plants. They, he said, were an economic disaster.

Finally, Bonneville Power Administration said just put in some simple conservation and energy efficiency programs.

That idea wasnโ€™t even novel then, of course. Amory Lovins in his 1976 Foreign Affairs essay, had described conservation as the soft path. It took utilities decades to embrace the idea. They kept wanting to build bigger and bigger coal but also natural gas plants.

Tracy described something similar happening in water. โ€œThe rhetoric out there right now โ€” that we need to find more water โ€” just doesnโ€™t match reality,โ€ he said. โ€œItโ€™s not only that weโ€™re using less water. Our gross domestic product keeps going up.โ€

Agricultural productivity has grown 20% in the 21st century. Organic corn in Coloradoโ€™s North Fork Valley. Photo credit: Allen Best

Since 2000, agricultural productivity โ€“ both irrigated and dryland โ€“ has grown 20%. โ€œEven with a decline in irrigated agriculture, our agricultural productivity across the nation has been increasing.โ€

Thatโ€™s water used for agriculture. How about urban use? Coloradoโ€™s Front Range, metropolitan Phoenix, Southern California, the metroplexes in Texas โ€“ surely theyโ€™re using more water.

โ€œWell, their water use kind of increased until about 2005, and itโ€™s been on a decline since then,โ€ he said. โ€œMunicipal water use is actually declining.โ€

Tracy described inertia as a problem in thinking about water. โ€œIt takes us a while to get out of the way we are thinking (that gets in the way of how we need to think) in order to address the coming challenges.โ€

Colorado, he suggested, still remains mired in old ways of thinking about water. He cited Thorntonโ€™s long-standing bid to export water from the Poudre River Valley. The cityโ€™s water planning assumed a per-capita need of 170 gallons a day, when 120 to 130 gallons is possible.

โ€When you think of how efficient ag has become, itโ€™s decades ahead of where municipalities are,โ€ he said. `

Tracy also faulted the Colorado Water Plan, which defines a water gap between supply and demand.

Colorado transmountain diversions via the State Engineer’s office

Dams and then technology

How did we get here? Tracy described several phases.

Physical interventions came first. Water was diverted from creeks and rivers, dams were built and, beginning in the 1930s, tunnels were bored to bring water across the Continental Divide. Massive amounts of infrastructure resulted, continuing through the 1960s.

โ€œFor the most part, the era of big dam building was done by the โ€˜60s.โ€

Chapman Dam, on the Fryingpan River near Basalt, is relatively small. Photo/Allen Best

Some want to link the end of that era to the 1976 collapse of the Teton Dam in Idaho. Had that dam not failed, that era had largely reached its limitations, he said. โ€œWe hit marginal returns on this approach.โ€

Teton Dam failure 1976. Photo credit: Wikipedia Commons

Although Tracy did not mention it, the formal end to Coloradoโ€™s era of big physical infrastructure is best described by the veto for Two Forks, Denverโ€™s plans for a massive import. There have been expansions of existing transmountain diversion projects since then, but not new ones.

Graphic credit: RogerWendell.com

Technology interventions came next, in Tracyโ€™s telling. The centrifugal pump was a major one. Developed in the 1940s, it came on strong in the โ€˜60s, โ€˜70s, โ€˜80s and even the โ€˜90s. These new pumps allowed drafting of groundwater in the Ogallala and elsewhere. โ€œA lot of this water was used to support irrigated agriculture.โ€

A twist on this was to improve efficiency of the technical interventions. Instead of using the groundwater for flood irrigation, it was spread with center-pivot sprinklers. Then the center-pivot sprinklers were modified to reduce evaporative losses.

That approach has now arrived at the stage of marginal returns.

Agronomic intervensions

Now comes what Tracy called agronomic interventions. Itโ€™s a form of ag water management. โ€œWhen you said you were working in ag water management, people assumed you work on irrigation systems, on canals or ditches and so forth.โ€

Now when he talks about water management, heโ€™s talking about crop selection and evaporative and transpiration needs.

โ€œYour decisions on managing under water stress are not related to the highest efficiency irrigation system,โ€ he explained. Theyโ€™re related to what crop are you selecting? What type of agrochemicals are you applying? What type of soil management are you doing?

This has led to predictive crop water-demand tools, development of drought and salt-tolerant crops and other pursuits of the Colorado Water Center. โ€œWeโ€™re not talking about pumps.โ€

Sorghum crop nears harvest in Coloradoโ€™s Baca County with Two Buttes in the background. Photo/Allen Best

What else falls under the heading of total water management?

Try cowpeas. The legume tolerates sandy soils and low water and can provide forage for cattle. Research is underway to answer whether this crop from Africa might be useful in Colorado in some areas reliant on declining groundwater supplies.

Crucial will be whether the crop can find a viable market. That includes, he added, whether cowpeas could be a replacement for beef in the so-called fake meat products.

As for the Ogallala, the efficiency of irrigation in some areas is โ€œmind-blowingly ridiculous. I mean, theyโ€™re north of 90%. Whereas if you think of somebody watering their lawn, if they get anywhere near 50% it would be a miracle.โ€

Guided by water decisions should be a clear understanding of value derived. Agriculture, for the most part, has been doing so for the last two decades, if not longer.

โ€œDo we have enough water? Yes, we have enough water. Do we have enough water to grow corn in areas where the productivity of the Ogallala Aquifer isnโ€™t what it used to be? No, we do not.โ€

That, he said, requires agronomic decisions.

The Colorado Water Center has research underway at several locations in Colorado, including at Akron, on the edge of the Ogallala Aquifer, and at Fruita, along the Colorado River. The research attempts to get a better understanding of how much water crops are using. โ€œThere are a lot of areas on the West Slope that still use flood irrigation,โ€ he said. The efficiency of that water use can be improved, but given the demand for the water, โ€œsometimes the infrastructure investment isnโ€™t worth it.โ€

Water Center staff has also been working with ranchers to better manage forage on pasture land in ways that may reduce water use. The Fruita station also did a winter crop of legumes that required no irrigation. โ€œAnd they brought in a crop, which just kind of amazed me,โ€ said Tracy.

The mixed bag of climate change

Tracy also talked about climate change, calling it a mixed bag. The warming climate allows growing of corn into Canada now. But this has been accompanied by greater variability. โ€œIt has expanded the growing season on average โ€“ great. But it means you have higher probability of a freeze in June โ€“ not good. As for weather, he sees improved forecasting that will help farmers. โ€œI expect that in the next couple of years there will be some products that give a much better idea of when we expect deep freezes, high-precipitation events, droughts and what have you in the three-to six month timeframe. Those pieces of information will be incredibly useful in helping make beginning-of-season decisions.โ€

As for water policy, he argued that Western states in general, but Colorado in particular, has an over-reliance on technical interventions.

Building infrastructure will not solve the problems. These physical and technological interventions are reaching the point of marginal returns,โ€ he said. โ€œSo how do you go about dealing with water challenges and growing populations? He cited emerging information technology that will aid in understanding exactly how much water is needed to bring a crop to market.

@UteWater Board of Directors commits financial backing to keep Shoshone water rights flowing west in perpetuity #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the release on the Ute Water website:

February 24, 2024

With a unanimous decision during a regular board meeting on February 14th, Ute Water’s Board of Directors pledged a financial contribution of two million dollars to the Colorado River District in securing the Shoshone water rights. The largest domestic water provider between Denver, Colorado, and Salt Lake City, Utah, is committing funding for the historic and monumental acquisition of the stateโ€™s largest and most senior non-consumptive water right on the Colorado River. This landmark purchase aims to finalize the Shoshone permanence efforts that Ute Water has been committed to for over 20 years.

Summary: View of a packtrain used for President Theodore Roosevelt’s hunting party in Glenwood Canyon (Garfield County), Colorado. The Colorado River is nearby.. Date: 1905. Buckwalter, Harry H.. Photo credit: Denver Public Library Digital Collections

What are the Shoshone water rights?

The senior Shoshone water right was established in 1902, before the Shoshone Hydroelectric Facility was constructed in the Glenwood Canyon east of Glenwood Springs, Colorado. The rights have commanded supreme control over the Colorado River for over a century to ensure the hydroelectric plantโ€™s “first in time, first in right” allocation to run water through the power-generating turbines and back into the river below. The Colorado River water that exits the Xcel Energy-owned facility after power generation flows downstream has contributed to the life force of the Grand Valley for generations.

On December 19th, 2023, Xcel Energy signed a momentous Purchase Sale Agreement (PSA) with the Colorado River District, which will transfer the senior water rights to the multi-county conservation organization for 98.5 million dollars. The sale will provide a permanent solution to an agreement made in 2016–the Shoshone Outage Protocol (SHOP), a standing acknowledgment between major water users across the state to operate the Shoshone Call, thereby sending historic flows westerly even when the hydroelectric facility is not in operation. The facility does not have any plans to close to date, but isolated outages related to the age of infrastructure and a host of natural disasters that the Glenwood Canyon has inflicted, from rockslides to wildfires, have tested the SHOP agreement.

According to the Colorado Division of Water Resources, water rights can be abandoned or dissolved when not put to beneficial use. When called, rights as influential as Shoshone can command as much as 86,000 acre-feet of westerly flow in a dry year.

With the Shoshone water rights purchase, the Colorado River District, in collaboration with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, aim to arrange an instream flow agreement to secure the historic flows to the Western Slope.

Photo: 1950 โ€œPublic Service Damโ€ (Shoshone Dam) in Colorado River near Glenwood Springs Colorado.

Why are the Shoshone Water Rights important to Ute Water and its 90,000 customers?

With strategically redundant infrastructure and source waters, Ute Water can overcome the difficulties of dry years by activating secondary water sources from Ruedi Reservoir and the Colorado River to supplement primary Plateau Creek water sources. Additional flows in the Colorado River from the Shoshone call improve water quality characteristics, such as the dilution of salinity levels. Irrigation entities also rely on Colorado River flows that fill canals and allow for robust and bountiful agriculture. Continued flows from Shoshone aid in maintaining the natural heritage of four endangered and threatened fish species that utilize the 15-mile reach (Bonytail, Colorado Pikeminnow, Humpback Chub, and Razorback Sucker), and persist alongside continued water security and sustainability for the Grand Valley community.

On a statewide level, maintaining higher recreational flows fuels the river recreation economy in Colorado, where the Colorado River basin on the Western Slope contributes around four billion dollars annually to the state’s GDP, according to the Colorado River District. The flows from Shoshone that reach Lake Powell also contribute to Colorado River interstate compact compliance.

How will the purchase be funded?

The Colorado River District presented the plan and progress for funding the Shoshone permanency effort during Ute Waterโ€™s regular board meeting on February 14th. Colorado River District General Manager Andy Mueller outlined two major milestones that have gotten the projectโ€™s funding off the ground.

On December 19th, 2023, in conjunction with signing the PSA with Xcel Energy, the Colorado River District’s 15-county board unanimously approved a 20-million-dollar contribution.

Then on January 29th, during the regular Colorado Water Conservation Board meeting, a hearing took place regarding Shoshone water rights funding. Ute Water staff testified in support of the Shoshone permanency effort at the hearing, and the Colorado Water Conservation Board unanimously backed the effort with an additional 20 million dollars in state funds through the Non-Reimbursable Investment Grant.

Moving forward, the Colorado River District hopes to leverage at least ten million dollars committed by various water users and providers of the Western Slope who will continue to benefit from the flows of Shoshone. Once local funds are secured alongside Ute Waterโ€™s two-million-dollar contribution, the Colorado River District plans to request the remaining balance of 49 million dollars from the Bureau of Reclamation’s Inflation Reduction Act funding sources, which is slated to support drought mitigation funding projects like these efforts on Shoshone permanency.

Whatโ€™s next?

More information about the effort can be found through the Shoshone Water Right Preservation Coalition and Campaign, of which Ute Water is a member, at keepshoshoneflowing.org. The Colorado River District plans to meet the four closing conditions of the PSA by December 31st, 2027. These closing conditions are as follows:

  1. Negotiation of an instream flow agreement with the Colorado Water Conservation Board
  2. A change of water rights decree through the water court process
  3. Secure Funding
  4. Approval by the Colorado Public Utilities Commission

Once these conditions are met and the acquisition is completed, Ute Water, the Grand Valley, and the Western Slope at large will realize the water security and sustainability benefits of Shoshone permanency.

Ute Water is proud to stand with our Western Slope community in preserving the lifeblood of our region โ€“ the Colorado River. Shoshone permanency has been generations in the making, and it will provide Western Slope water resources and prosperity for generations to come.

The latest on Keep Shoshone Flowing can be found online, on Facebook, and via newsletter.

More Coyote Gulch Shoshone coverage.

Research Article: Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century — Science Advances

Fig. 1. Subregional expression of reconstructed temperatures across WNA since 1553 CE. (Left) First four varimax-rotated eOF factor scores (ranging from โˆ’1.0 to +1.0) are mapped and labeled with the variance explained by each factor. (Right) Annual (thin black line) and 10-year low passโ€“filtered (thick red lines) reconstruction time series of JJA maximum temperatures for four major regions of WnA, spanning the period 1553 to 2020 ce. Anomalies are relative to the 1951 to 1980 ce mean. the four regional time series are calculated using the rotated varimax factor loadings over the period 1901 to 2000 ce. Credit: Science Advances

Click the link to access the article on the Science Advances website (Karen E.ย King,ย Edward R.ย Cook,ย Kevin J.ย Anchukaitis,ย Benjamin I.ย Cook,ย Jason E.ย Smerdon,ย Richardย Seager,ย Grant L.ย Harley, andย Benjaminย Spei). Here’s the abstract:

Across western North America (WNA), 20th-21st century anthropogenic warming has increased the prevalence and severity of concurrent drought and heat events, also termed hot droughts. However, the lack of independent spatial reconstructions of both soil moisture and temperature limits the potential to identify these events in the past and to place them in a long-term context. We develop the Western North American Temperature Atlas (WNATA), a data-independent 0.5ยฐ gridded reconstruction of summer maximum temperatures back to the 16th century. Our evaluation of the WNATA with existing hydroclimate reconstructions reveals an increasing association between maximum temperature and drought severity in recent decades, relative to the past five centuries. The synthesis of these paleo-reconstructions indicates that the amplification of the modern WNA megadrought by increased temperatures and the frequency and spatial extent of compound hot and dry conditions in the 21st century are likely unprecedented since at least the 16th century.

A long-sought deal around a little power plant might be a model for #ColoradoRiver cooperation: Purchase of Shoshone Power Plant water rights in Glenwood Canyon will ensure baseline level — The #Denver Post #COriver #aridification

This historical photo shows the penstocks of the Shoshone power plant above the Colorado River. A coalition led by the Colorado River District is seeking to purchase the water rights associated with the plant. Credit: Library of Congress photo

Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (Elise Schmelzer). Here’s an excerpt:

February 26, 2024

A small hydroelectric power plant on the banks of the Colorado River has inspired a unique coalition in a state where water scarcity and politics often pit environmentalists, growers and recreationists against each other. Yet those groups recently set aside their competing interests in western Colorado, banding together to safeguard the water rights tied to the squat brown building tucked just off Interstate 70 in Glenwood Canyon. It still generates power, but its true value has been in the water that flows through it โ€” which just might be the key to the riverโ€™s future…

Peter Fleming, the general counsel for the district, said of the interests along the river, from agricultural producers to the recreation industry: โ€œUniformly, across the board, they are in support of protecting the Shoshone flows. Itโ€™s pretty unique. People donโ€™t always see eye to eye on water issues.โ€

[…]

Environmental protection plans exist based on the assumption that the water will be in the river. If the plantโ€™s right were to disappear, those plans likely would need to be rewritten. The flows also keep water temperatures down for endangered fish and keep salinity low in drinking water for towns on the river…For agricultural producers in the Grand Valley, the water is crucial for growing Palisade peaches, wine grapes, wheat, corn, hay and alfalfa, said Tina Bergonzini, the general manager of the Grand Valley Water Users Association…The consistent flows provided by the Shoshone right also are critical for the $4 billion recreation industry centered on the Colorado River on the Western Slope, according to the river district.

More Coyote Gulch coverage of the Shoshone right.

Area #snowpack levels remain slightly below average for this time of year, with West Slope stations in Northern Water’s service area at a collective 95 percent of median and East Slope stations at 88 percent of median — @Northern_Water

Data Dump: Western Farms: We dig into the latest agricultural census numbers — Jonathan P. Thompson (@Land_Desk)

Photo credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

February 23, 2024

Happy Agricultural Census time! Last week, the USDA released the 2022 Census of Agriculture โ€” a once-every-five-year event โ€” and, as always, itโ€™s chock full of data on the state of the nationโ€™s farming. I like to peruse the numbers and compare them to those from previous censuses to try to get a sense of how the Westโ€™s agricultural landscape is changing, and to get answers to questions like: How are farmers responding to aridification? Is residential development really gobbling up all the farmland? 

The report only offers numbers, without a lot of context. So drawing firm conclusions isnโ€™t possible. But the data are interesting, and sometimes enlightening, nonetheless. Letโ€™s start with an overview:

Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

I gotta say, I had to double- then triple-check the numbers on this one. New Mexico has way more farmed acres than California โ€” Say what!? But yeah, they do. Keep in mind that this is not cropland, but farm land, which can include sprawling ranches and just land that someone is calling agricultural for tax reasons. So take it with a grain of salt. Farm acreage is decreasing in all the states, which is hardly surprising. 

But before you freak out about the death of American farming, consider this: The total number of farms has increased everywhere since 1997 except in California.

Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

Other data suggest that small farms are making a big comeback, especially in Colorado (though there was a slight dip in farm numbers between 2017 and 2022). 

Now letโ€™s look at alfalfa, since hay is not only fodder for horses but also for fighting over these days, especially in the Colorado River Basin. We hear a lot about how much water alfalfa uses and about how the federal government is paying farmers in the Lower Colorado River Basin not to grow the stuff. And so, one might expect to see a big drop in alfalfa production in those places. 

That didnโ€™t happen. In fact, several places produced significantly more alfalfa in 2022 than in 2017. It seems weird, but there are a few things to consider. First, even though the Colorado River Crisis was well under way by 2022, most of the programs paying farmers to stop farming hadnโ€™t yet kicked in in 2022. Also, farmers arenโ€™t really being paid to stop farming or plow up their crops. Theyโ€™re being paid to use less water. Or, another way to look at it: The feds are leasing the farmersโ€™ water from them in order to keep it in the reservoirs. Which means farmers can keep growing if they want; they just canโ€™t irrigate as much. And alfalfa, it turns out, is fairlyย drought tolerant, unlike, say, almonds or lettuce or broccoli. So it makes some sense to see alfalfa production hold steady or even climb during a drought.

Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

Once again, Imperial County, California, is the Westโ€™s biggest alfalfa producer. And the Imperial Irrigation District remains the largest single water user on the Colorado River. Maricopa County, Arizona, is in second place for alfalfa tonnage, which just goes to show that Phoenix sprawl may be gobbling up farm- and desert-land, but the hayfields endure (and Maricopa County is ginormous). And alfalfa production increased substantially between 2017 and 2022 in those places, though it fell in most of the other counties surveyed. 

And hereโ€™s something else that doesnโ€™t show up on the graph: Eddy County, New Mexicoโ€™s alfalfa acreage and production fell by more than 50% between 1997 and 2022. I donโ€™t know the reason, but I wouldnโ€™t be surprised if it had to do with the Permian Basin oil and gas drilling boom, some of which surely is taking place on farmland. Just a guess. It also might have to do with ongoing drought, I suppose. 

Of course, most of that alfalfa is going to feed livestock, either in the U.S. or elsewhere. And a surprisingly (for me, at least) large percentage of that livestock in the West are dairy cattle. So eschewing beef, alone, in order to save water ainโ€™t gonna be enough. You gotta ditch the whole enchilada, cheese and all! (Ainโ€™t happening).

Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

California, especially Tulare and Merced Counties, is dairy country. The state is home to nearly 1.7 million dairy cattle. Idaho runs a distant second for the West, with a mere 664,000. Nearly a half-million dairy cattle call New Mexico home, while Maricopa County has about 103,000 dairy cows. Montana is the Westโ€™s beef-cow leader, with California, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico rounding out the top five, in that order. Weld County, Colorado, (home of the Greeley stench) is the beefiest county in the West, with Fresno, Kern, and Tulare in California up there, too. 

$36 million; $14 million; $45 million: Amount spent in 2018 on energy for on-farm irrigation-pumping in the Rio Grande; Upper Colorado; and Lower Colorado watersheds, respectively. 

626,000; 1.4 million Acres of almond orchards in California in 2002 and 2022, respectively. (Aridification ainโ€™t keeping these water hogs at bay, apparently!)

546; 1176 Number of farms in Colorado harvesting vegetables for sale in 1997; 2022, respectively. (A small-farm/farmers market revolution?)

$671,000; $2 million Average value of a Colorado farmโ€™s land and buildings in 1997; 2022, respectively (That amounts to $618/acre then vs. $2,401/acre now, meaning itโ€™s a lot more expensive to get into farming these days if you donโ€™t already have any land). 

37; 105 Number of farms in Nevada harvesting vegetables for sale in 1997; 2022, respectively.

85,446; 58,831ย Acres of potatoes harvested in Colorado in 1997; 2022, respectively.ย (Thatโ€™s a big drop. I plan to look into this one a bit more in a future dispatch).

2,038,456; 606,105 cwt (approx. 100 lbs) of dry beans harvested in Colorado in 1997; 2022, respectively (Ack! Whatโ€™s going on?!)

6.8 million; 9.4 million Bushels of corn produced in Arizona in 1997; 2022, respectively. (Another counterintuitive one. Warrants further investigation!)

860,000; 313,000 Bales of cotton harvested in Arizona in 1997; 2022, respectively. 

73,603; 58,492 Acres of land in orchards in Arizona in 1997; 2022, respectively. (Those citrus groves have been displaced by subdivisions, Iโ€™m afraid). 

2.7 million; 4.1 million Acres of land in orchards in California in 1997; 2022, respectively. (Wow! A lot of these acres are planted with almonds, surely.) 

2.6 million; 1.8 million Number of hogs and pigs sold by Utah operations in 2012; 2022, respectively. (Yes, Utah is hog-farm central. Smithfield Foods contracts with a bunch of factory hog farming operations in Beaver County. They are cutting back operations, however.)

And the most heartbreaking data point? Dove Creek isnโ€™t even close to being the Pinto Bean Capital of the World anymore. Hell, itโ€™s not even the bean capital of Colorado. Dolores and Montezuma Counties together produced about 25,000 cwt of dried beans in 2022. Yuma County, Colorado, harvested 270,000 cwt. Okay, granted, thatโ€™s for alldry beans, not just pintos (the census doesnโ€™t break them out by variety). Still โ€ฆ How the mighty have fallen! 

Are you curious about specific ag stats for your county or state? Drop the Land Desk a line or put your question in the comments below and weโ€™ll try to track down an answer.

Alfalfaphobia? 

JONATHAN P. THOMPSON

SEPTEMBER 23, 2022

Golf course at Page, Arizona, with Glen Canyon Dam and the diminished Lake Powell in the background. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

In recent weeks I’ve written a piece or Two about Alfalfa. My thesis: As the biggest single water user in the Colorado River Basin, the crop must plan an equally large role in contributing two the cuts necessary to keep the river from drying out. I know, it doesn’t seem like a hot-button topic. I mean, it’s just hay, after all.

Read full story

A follow up

This cool map by the Grand Canyon Trustโ€™s Stephanie Smith shows how these projects usually work and gives a sense of scale and impacts. Source: Grand Canyon Trust.

When I wrote earlier this week that federal regulators hadย nixed all of the still active proposals for pumped hydropower energy storage facilities on the Navajo Nation, I overlooked one: the proposed Big Canyon Pumped Storage Project on a tributary of the Little Colorado River. Seems that when the Phoenix-based companyย surrendered permitsย for two other Little Colorado projects back in 2021, it kept a third proposal alive. Since I hadnโ€™t heard anything about it, I had assumed it had simply faded away. Not quite.ย 

Confluence of the Little Colorado River and the Colorado River. Climate change is affecting western streams by diminishing snowpack and accelerating evaporation. The Colorado Riverโ€™s flows and reservoirs are being impacted by climate change, and environmental groups are concerned about the status of the native fish in the river. Photo credit: DMY at Hebrew Wikipedia [Public domain]

This week FERC issued a notice seeking public input on the Pumped Hydro Storageโ€™s application for a preliminary permit for the project, which would be located on Navajo Nation lands. 

So why didnโ€™t FERC reject this project like it did the other proposals? Because back in 2020, when the application was initially submitted, the tribe intervened in the case, but didnโ€™t express outright opposition. Now they have the chance to do so, which presumably would result in the permitโ€™s rejection per FERCโ€™s new policy.ย The Hopi Tribe has alsoย weighed in on FERC policyย and these projects.

Parting Shot

A cow in the desert. Jonathan P. Thompson photo

#Snowpack news February 26, 2024

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map February 26, 2024 via the NRCS.
Colorado snowpack basin-filled map February 26, 2024 via the NRCS.

The Getches-Wilkinson Center and the Getches-Green Clinic Defend the Antiquities Act

Bears Ears. Photo credit: Chris Winter/Getches-Wilkinson Center

Click the link to read the article on the Getches-Wilikinson Center website (Chris Winter):

January 24, 2024

The Getches-Wilkinson Center and the Getches-Green Clinic recently teamed up with 29 law professors from around the country to submit an important amicus curiae brief in a case that could undermine the integrity of the Antiquities Act.

In 2021, President Biden issued two proclamations restoring Bears Ears and Grand-Staircase Escalante National Monuments in southern Utah. Both landscapes are rich in cultural, ecological, and paleontological objects that reflect millennia of human occupation and provide a living laboratory for scientific study. Professor Charles Wilkinson played a key role in the work that led to the original designation of both monuments, and scholars from the University of Colorado Law School have advanced the study of the Antiquities Act for many years.

The State of Utah and other parties challenged President Bidenโ€™s proclamations in the District of Utah, alleging that the President designated ineligible objects and protected too much federal public land in creating the monuments. The district court dismissed the lawsuit holding that there was no right to judicial review of a monument proclamation. The plaintiffs appealed the case to the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals.

Chris Winter, Executive Director of GWC, and Sarah Matsumoto, Director of the Getches-Green Clinic, worked on the amicus brief, which was signed by 29 environmental law professors from across the country. The law professors encouraged the 10th Circuit to refine the district courtโ€™s approach to judicial review of monument proclamations to align with how the D.C. Circuit court has addressed the issue. The D.C. Circuit Court allows for a limited form of facial review to ensure that the President acted within the authority delegated to the office by Congress. Here, it is clear that President Bidenโ€™s proclamations should be upheld under this limited form of review as a valid exercise of Presidential discretion.

Prof. Mark Squillace, Raphael J. Moses Professor of Law at Colorado Law School, and John Leshy, Distinguished Professor Emeritus, University of California College of the Law San Francisco, contributed extensive time and energy to the effort. We are also grateful for the key assistance of the clinical students โ€“ Lizzie Bird, Mariah Bowman, and Mike McCarthy.

You can also read a Bloomberg article discussing the amicus brief here.  

The Pagosa Area Water & Sanitation District votes to increase rates, capital investment fees: New rages and fees take effect March 1, 2024 — The #PagosaSprings Sun

Wastewater Treatment Process

Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Josh Pike). Here’s an excerpt:

At its Feb. 15 meeting, the Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) Board of Directors voted to raise fees and rates for 2024 in accordance with the rate study by Stantec that the board approved at its Dec. 14, 2023, meeting. The board voted to increase the monthly service charge per equivalent unit (EU) by 3 percent, going from $31.44 in 2023 to $32.38 in 2024. The monthly service charge per EU for wastewater was voted to increase by 30 percent from $32.80 in 2023 to $42.64 in 2024. Short-term rentals (STRs) will be charged 140 percent of the wastewater rate, according to the fee schedule approved by the board.

The capital investment fee (CIF) for water increased from $5,352.37 in 2023 to $8,958, and the wastewater CIF increased from $1,178.98 in 2023 to $15,697 in 2024, according to the fee schedule.

Other fees, such as availability fees, dumping fees for septic haulers and water fill station fees also increased, with the increases matching the percentage increase in water rates for water-related fees and the percentage increase in wastewater rates for wastewater-related fees.

The new rates and fees will take effect March 1.

2024 #COleg: Should #Colorado tell counties how to review renewable projects? — Allen Best (@BigPivots) #ActOnClimate

The Crossing Trails Wind Farm between Kit Carson and Seibert, about 150 miles east of Denver, has an installed capacity of 104 megawatts, which goes to Tri-State Generation and Transmission. Photo/Allen Best

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

February 23, 2024

A bill being readied for introduction in March would create a state standard for review of renewable energy projects by Colorado jurisdictions. Is this really needed?

A bill creating statewide standards for local governments in Colorado evaluating renewable energy projects is likely to be introduced in coming days or weeks. Is this a solution in search of a problem?

Very few local governments in Colorado have adopted regulations seen as onerous by energy developers. Pueblo County several years ago rejected a solar farm based on neighborhood opposition. They feared loss of views. Mesa County in January adopted a six-month moratorium on new utility-scale solar projects with the active support of at least one local solar company. Delta County commissioners at first rejected a solar farm on Garnett Mesa but the proponents made changes more acceptable to neighbors.

Coloradoโ€™s counties have not been hard-nosed about renewable energy. That point was made by State Sen. Byron Pelton, a former Logan County commissioner who represents much of northeastern Colorado and has a small cow-calf operation near Sterling.

In an op-ed published in the print edition of The Denver Post on Feb. 4 (not available online), he took a swing at the โ€œDemocrat majority and radical environmentalistsโ€ who would usurp local control in regulating renewable energy siting.

โ€œMost proposed renewable energy projects are approved, and when proposals are denied, itโ€™s for good reason,โ€ wrote Pelton. โ€œThose reasons range from environmental impact concerns and impact on agriculture and wildlife to inadequate benefits for the host community.โ€

Boulder County, he pointed out, led the way in using moratoriums to address local concerns.

โ€œThey imposed a five-year moratorium on oil and gas, giving them time to contemplate the best path forward for their community. None of the moratoriums imposed on renewable energy development have come anywhere close to approaching five years.โ€

On the same day Peltonโ€™s op/ed was in the Denver Post, USA Today published a story: โ€œUS counties are blocking the future of renewable.โ€

โ€œAt least 15% of counties in the US have effectively halted new utility-scale wind, solar or both,โ€ the newspaper reported. The limits come in the form of outright bans, moratoriums, construction impediments and other conditions that make green energy difficult to build.โ€

The newspaper reported that 375 counties blocked new wind developments in the past decade compared to 183 counties who got them. Many were in Tennessee, North Carolina, and Kentucky, but also in Vermont. Maps published with the story show a couple of counties with wind restrictions on Coloradoโ€™s eastern plains, and several on the Western Slope, which have far less wind value. The chart also shows solar restrictions in several Colorado counties but provides no detail.

One common requirement in zoning rules intended to block new wind farms specifies the height of a turbine relative to adjacent property lines. Most new wind turbines in the U.S. are 500 feet or taller. Some counties require setbacks of 1,320 feet, 1,500 feet, a mile or, in some cases, 3 miles.

Colorado Public Radio in a Feb. 8 story reported that State Sen. Chris Hansen, D-Denver, said he intended to introduce a bill that would create a standardized process for local governments considering renewable energy projects. CPRโ€™s Sam Brasch reported that an early draft of the bill also identified rules to restrict development of wind and solar farms and also transmission lines.

Hansen yesterday confirmed that he intends to introduce the bill in March.

A flashpoint for this lies in Washington County, which is in Peltonโ€™s district. While county commissioners in Akron have welcomed the Colorado Power Pathway that crosses the countyโ€™s southern section, the county in 2021 also approved some of the stateโ€™s toughest regulations on renewable energy projects. CPR says those regulations require one-mile spacing between structures and new wind turbines.

The CPR story also cites a study from the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law that found local governments across 34 states have approved at least 228 restrictions on renewable energy development.

New York, California, and Illinois adopted legislation similar to that being drafted by Hansen to limit local control over renewable energy projects.

Ignoring an Inconvenient #ColoradoRiver Basin Risk — John Fleck (InkStain.net) #COriver #aridification

Sometimes all we can do is sit and watch and wonder. Credit: John Fleck/InkStain

Click the link to read the article on the InkStain website (John Fleck):

It is agonizing to watch this, but here we are.

With efforts by the Colorado River Basin states to craft an agreement to share the riverโ€™s water skidding, brakes screeching, toward a cliff, we appear on the brink of repeating the disastrous mistake the authors of the Colorado River Compact made a century ago: ignoring inconvenient truths about the risks we face, washing away genuine uncertainties with convenient talking points.

As Eric Kuhn carefully documented in a post here [February 22, 2024], there is once again a genuine risk that we will ignore inconvenient truths about a huge uncertainty in our understanding of how much water the river can offer us, and for whom. We are pretending that an uncertainty literally at the scale of millions of acre feet in how we measure and manage water does not exist.

Resource: A freight train of thoughts about the Colorado River — Allen Best (Big Pivots)

Becky Mitchell. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

A masterful Upper Colorado River Basin public relations blitz, led by the Colorado Water Conservation Board, would have us believe one set of numbers about the riverโ€™s future, a set of numbers that has given Upper Basin water users comfort that they can sit tight and blame others for the riverโ€™s woes.

But as Ericโ€™s analysis showed, there are hidden assumptions behind the Upper Basinโ€™s numbers โ€“ assumptions that hide a genuine and irreducible uncertainty. The uncertainty is irreducible because more than a century after the adoption of the Colorado River Compact, there is still no agreed upon definition of how to measure the use of water. As Eric wrote, these are questions โ€œwith enormous potential impacts on the allocation and distribution of the shrinking Colorado River โ€“ questions we have avoided dealing with by draining the Basinโ€™s reservoirs. We no longer have that option.โ€

ARITHMETIC AND LAW

Eric is a master of the arcane and wonky details of the interface between Colorado River law and hydrology, and I commend you to his analysis โ€“ it rewards a careful read. But Eric once described my role in our collaboration as โ€œdewonkifyingโ€, so let me try to put this in simpler terms.

The 1922 Colorado River Compact based its allocations on โ€œbeneficial consumptive useโ€. But the phrase was never defined, and the definitions ended up bitterly contested in the decades that followed. It remains undefined to this day. Or rather, there are two competing definitions that yield very different results.

Each definition makes intuitive sense, and at first glance they look puzzlingly similar. But at the scale of the Colorado River Basin they yield very different results that have become a critical piece of the current basin management debate.

Method A is based on the collective amount of water communities take from the river, minus the amount they return โ€“ โ€œdiversions less return flows.โ€

Method B is based on the ultimate impact of that use on the Colorado River downstream of the use โ€“ for the Upper Basin, for example, at Lee Ferry, or for Arizona at the confluence of the Gila and the Colorado near Yuma. This is the โ€œstream depletion theoryโ€.

Those might sound so similar that the differences are trivial. And at localized scales they are. But, as Eric explained in yesterdayโ€™s post, with a classically Eric Kuhn working out of the mathematical details (I love collaborating with this guy โ€“ he shows his work!) at the scale of the Lower Colorado River Basin the differences amount to nearly 2 million acre feet of water.

Under Method A, Lower Basin use is more than 10.1 million acre feet per year, well above its Colorado River Compact allocation of 8.5 million acre feet. This is the methodology the Colorado Water Conservation Board staff used in its now-famous PowerPoint slide purporting to demonstrate that the  Lower Basin is using more than its legally allotted share of the Colorado.

But under Method B, Lower Basin use is some 8.3 million acre feet โ€“ less than its Compact allocation. Importantly, Method B is the method adopted by the Upper Basin Compact, and therefore the method used in the Upper Basinโ€™s management of its share of the river.

LETโ€™S BE HONEST ABOUT THE UNCERTAINTIES

To be clear, Eric and I are not arguing in favor of or B. We are arguing, as we did in our book Science be Dammed(we spent chunks of three chapters on this question), that the lack of an agreement over the definition of โ€œbeneficial consumptive useโ€ remains a genuine and important unresolved uncertainty in the Law of the River, and our discussions of the future management of the Colorado River need to acknowledge that uncertainty, not pretend that it does not exist.

This is what I, as a stakeholder whose community depends on the Colorado River, expect of those leading the interstate effort โ€“ public honesty about the genuine risks and uncertainties we face.

“New plot using the nClimGrid data, which is a better source than PRISM for long-term trends. Of course, the combined reservoir contents increase from last year, but the increase is less than 2011 and looks puny compared to the โ€˜holeโ€™ in the reservoirs. The blue Loess lines subtly change. Last year those lines ended pointing downwards. This year they end flat-ish. 2023 temps were still above the 20th century average, although close. Another interesting aspect is that the 20C Mean and 21C Mean lines on the individual plots really donโ€™t change much. Finally, the 2023 Natural Flows are almost exactly equal to 2019. (17.678 maf vs 17.672 maf). For all the hoopla about how this was record-setting year, the fact is that this year was significantly less than 2011 (20.159 maf) and no different than 2019” — Brad Udall

Article: Irrigation intensification impacts sustainability of streamflow in the Western United States — Nature Communications

An irrigation headgate on a canal in the Upper Green River Basin has a lock that can be used to regulate flows. (Angus M. Thuermer Jr./Wyofile)

Click the link to access the article on the Nature Communications website (David Ketchum,ย Zachary H. Hoylman,ย Justin Huntington,ย Douglas Brinkerhoffย &ย Kelsey G. Jencso). Here’s the abstract:

Abstract

Quantifying the interconnected impacts of climate change and irrigation on surface water flows is critical for the proactive management of our water resources and the ecosystem services they provide. Changes in streamflow across the Western U.S. have generally been attributed to an aridifying climate, but in many basins flows can also be highly impacted by irrigation. We developed a 35-year dataset consisting of streamflow, climate, irrigated area, and crop water use to quantify the effects of both climate change and irrigation water use on streamflow across 221 basins in the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri River systems. We demonstrate that flows have been altered beyond observed climate-related changes and that many of these changes are attributable to irrigation. Further, our results indicate that increases in irrigation water use have occurred over much of the study area, a finding that contradicts government-reported irrigation statistics. Increases in crop consumption have enhanced fall and winter flows in some portions of the Upper Missouri and northern Columbia River basins, and have exacerbated climate change-induced flow declines in parts of the Colorado basin. We classify each basinโ€™s water resources sustainability in terms of flow and irrigation trends and link irrigation-induced flow changes to irrigation infrastructure modernization and differences in basin physiographic setting. These results provide a basis for determining where modern irrigation systems benefit basin water supply, and where less efficient systems contribute to return flows and relieve ecological stress.

#Colorado farmers find plenty of sweet deals at $4.7 million Front Range water auction — Fresh Water News #ColoradoRiver #SouthPlatteRiver #COriver #aridification

Horsetooth Reservoir

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Jerd Smith):

February 21, 2024

LONGMONT: It is 10:16 a.m. on Valentineโ€™s Day. More than 100 people are gathered in a sprawling room at the Boulder County Fairgrounds. Pencils, notebooks, calculators, auction catalogs and heart-shaped chocolates lie on tables as buyers begin bidding for some of the most sought-after and pricey water in Colorado.

In less than an hour, they will have spent some $4.7 million to buy shares of water in the Colorado-Big Thompson (C-BT) Project, a federal water system whose construction began after the Dust Bowl, which now serves more than 1 million people on the northern Front Range and which helps irrigate thousands of acres of farmland in the South Platte River Basin. It is operated by Northern Water.

This liquid, in some ways, is the Saks Fifth Avenue of water โ€” high quality, clean, neatly packaged and easily delivered within the boundaries of Northern Waterโ€™s eight-county district. Another major attraction is that transactions involving C-BT shares donโ€™t have to be approved by Coloradoโ€™s water courts, as most water sales do.

Under the contract between Northern Water and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, transfers of C-BT Project shares are instead approved by the Northern Water Board of Directors.

Some 90 shares were for sale on that morning, a tiny fraction of the 310,000 shares that comprise the entire project, according to Jeff Stahla, a spokesman for Northern Water, which operates the system for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

And the sales prices were low, averaging just over $52,000 per share, well below the $70,000-plus the water has fetched in recent years, Stahla said.

Jim Docheff is a retired dairyman from Weld County. He sits in the front row, in a Western red felt jacket and tan cowboy hat, one of his sons by his side.

Ultimately he will buy six shares of the water. โ€œItโ€™s all I could afford,โ€ he said, smiling.

How much water is conveyed in a share of the Colorado-Big Thompson system varies from year to year and is tied to how much water the system gathers from the headwaters of the Colorado River and how much irrigators need, Stahla said. Each spring, Northernโ€™s board decides how much water will be allotted to its shares, which are designed to supplement native supplies in the South Platte River Basin.

Some years, the board sets a quota as high as 100% per share, which is one-acre foot. The lowest it has set is 50%. In a dry year, the board might set the quota higher to help growers, and in a wet year, it may be lower because less water is needed.

An acre-foot of water equals about 326,000 gallons.

This purchase will add water security to Docheffโ€™s dairy operations for years to come, he said, as his sons continue the work the family has been doing for 89 years.

But the deal must be approved by Northern Water, which will certify that the water will stay in its district, that it will be put to beneficial use, and that it will serve as a supplemental rather than a sole source of water, a requirement under its federal operating rules.

Docheff and others were surprised by the numbers. โ€œHonestly, I thought the prices were low,โ€ Docheff said.

In recent years, Colorado-Big Thompson shares have topped $70,000. And in fact, one share did sell for $79,200 on Valentineโ€™s Day, but most sold for less, trading in the $50,000 to $72,600 range, according to Scott Shuman of Hall and Hall Auctions, which ran the morningโ€™s proceedings.

And that was good news for farmers, who dominated the bidding. They were able to afford to buy shares in a system in which fast-growing cities from Broomfield north to the Wyoming state line once dominated the sales, often pricing farmers out.

โ€œI think it actually speaks to the fact that there is a robust market for agriculture and you have producers who are looking to firm up their [water] portfolios,โ€ Stahla said.

The lower prices may also be tied to a softening in the housing market in northern Colorado, Shuman said.

โ€œWe had an auction in 2019 and we had tons of cities participating,โ€ Shuman said. But not this time around.

โ€œIn 2019 there were new subdivisions being built everywhere and weโ€™re not seeing that kind of building now,โ€ he said.

Throughout the proceedings, Carol Yoakum and her family, the sellers of the C-BT shares, sat at the back of the room, watching bid prices post on a huge screen behind the auctioneer.

โ€œI think it went just fine,โ€ she said, after the bidding closed. โ€œI hope it makes everybody happy.โ€

More by Jerd SmithJerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email at jerd@wateredco.org or @jerd_smith.

Colorado-Big Thompson Project map. Courtesy of Northern Water.

The Sierraโ€™s remarkable recovery: โ€˜Snow #droughtโ€™ fears overturned in a flash — The Los Angeles Times #snowpack

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map February 23, 2024 via the NRCS.

Click the link to read the article on The Los Angeles Times website (Ian James). Here’s an excerpt:

February 22, 2024

Concerns that California might remain in a โ€œsnow droughtโ€ this winter have eased after a series of storms this month blanketed the Sierra Nevada with a near-average amount of snow for this time of year. The snowpack across the mountain range now measures 86% of normal for the date, according to state data, up from 28% of normal at the start of the year. The latest storms have also brought enough rain to push the stateโ€™s total precipitation to slightly above average for this time of year. And Californiaโ€™s major reservoirs, which were filled spectacularly by last yearโ€™s historic wet winter, are still at 118% of their average levels…

โ€œWe have a fairly good snowpack right now โ€” not great, but itโ€™s not unusually dry,โ€ [Jay] Lund said. โ€œAnd even if it were to get dry, weโ€™re coming into it with a full set of reservoirs.โ€

[…]

Shasta Lake, the stateโ€™s largest reservoir, is now 87% full, while Lake Oroville stands at 82% of capacity.

Federal court overturns Obama-era #coal leasing moratorium — @WyoFile #ActOnClimate

Arch Resources’ Black Thunder mine in southern Campbell County. (EcoFlight)

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

February 22, 2024

A federal appeals court has overturned an Obama-era moratorium for new coal mine leasing on public lands โ€” an โ€œunequivocal winโ€ for Wyomingโ€™s coal industry, according to Gov. Mark Gordon. Yet theย decision, which the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals handed down on Wednesday, likely will not result in a rush on new federal coal leases in Wyoming.

The three-judge panel even noted an apparent โ€œde facto moratoriumโ€ dictated by markets that has all but erased demand for major new federal coal tracts โ€” a trend that particularly applies to Wyoming coal, which has lost nearly half its market among coal-burning electric power producers in the U.S over the past 15 years.

Nonetheless, the courtโ€™s ruling does away with โ€œduplicativeโ€ environmental analysis introduced by the Obama moratorium and is a clear charge to the Department of Interior that it must be responsive to federal coal lease requests, according to Gordon.

โ€œThe Department of Interior now has one less excuse to thwart its federal coal leasing responsibilities,โ€ he said in a prepared statement Wednesday.

Volley among administrations

In 2016, then-President Barack Obama directed the Interior and Bureau of Land Management to issue a moratorium on federal coal leasing and conduct a review of the program to better account for a fair rate of return to taxpayers, as well as coalโ€™s impact on human health and the environment.

A coal train rolls out of Gillette in 2016. (Andrew Graham/WyoFile)

But then the Trump administration rescinded the order before the federal agencies completed the work. The conflicting administrative policies set off a series of legal volleys and prompted Wyoming to join the battle in support of the Trump administrationโ€™s actions on the matter.

The appellate court ruling this week nullifies a 2022 federal district court ruling that temporarily reinstated the original moratorium.

โ€œWith this ruling, important projects can once again advance and support the production of affordable, reliable power to the grid, while creating jobs and economic development across the country, helping federal, state and localities with necessary funding by contributing hundreds of millions each year in revenues to state and local governments,โ€ National Mining Association President and CEO Rich Nolan said in a prepared statement.

However, the Northern Cheyenne Tribe and several conservation groups that brought the lawsuit say the Biden administration can still take meaningful action regarding federal coal reserves.

A coal haul truck at Peabody Energyโ€™s North Antelope Rochelle mine heads to the pit for another load in July 2019. (Alan Nash/WyoFile)

โ€œAlmost 10 years ago under President Obama, we were promised there would be an honest conversation with the American people about the real costs of the federal coal program on our public lands and public health. Weโ€™re still waiting for that conversation,โ€ Wyoming Sierra Club Acting Director Rob Joyce said. โ€œNow we have less than a decade to make significant cuts to climate pollution to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Instead of leasing coal to the highest corporate bidder, BLM needs to focus on helping coal communities transition to clean energy jobs and setting a conservation-minded course that preserves public lands for future generations.โ€

Dwindling demand

Wyoming became the nationโ€™s largest coal producer in the 1980s, and at its peak, in 2008, produced 466 million tons. The annual volume of coal thatโ€™s shipped out of state has fallen by nearly half since then. 

Powder River Basin mines, which account for the bulk of Wyomingโ€™s coal production, shipped about 230.4 million tons in 2023 โ€” a decline of 7 million tons compared to 2022, according to the Gillette News-Record

Demand for new federal coal tracts has followed suit.

The most recent large federal coal leases sold in the Powder River Basin went to Peabody Energy and Arch Coal (now Arch Resources) in 2012. Peabody paid $1.24 billion for the rights to mine 1.12 billion tons of coal to extend operations at its North Antelope Rochelle mine,ย according to the BLM. Arch paid more than $300 million for 222.67 million tons of federal coal for its flagship Black Thunder mine.

All told, some 2.5 billion tons of federal coal reserves were leased in the Powder River Basin during the first seven years of the Obama administration prior to the coal leasing moratorium in 2016.

Since then, coal producers in Wyoming โ€” responding to softening market demand โ€” have pulled back on earlier plans to acquire large tracts of federal coal to last them decades into the future. Aside from leasing small โ€œmaintenanceโ€ coal tracts at existing mining operations โ€” which was allowed to continue under the Obama moratorium โ€” there are just two pending lease applications for major new federal coal tracts in Wyoming, according to the BLM.

Cloud Peak Energy applied for a 441 million-ton federal coal lease in 2015, but the company filed for bankruptcy in 2019. Its Powder River Basin mines were acquired by Navajo Transitional Energy Company LLC, which still maintains the lease application. NTEC, however, has scaled back production at the mines.

A subsidiary of Arch applied for a 468 million-ton federal coal tract in 2005, a request that was not subject to the moratorium. However, Arch has also scaled back its mining operations in Wyoming andย plans to sell or close its mines in the state.

Mauna Loa is WMO Global Atmosphere Watch benchmark station and monitors rising CO2 levels Week of 23 April 2023: 424.40 parts per million Weekly value one year ago: 420.19 ppm Weekly value 10 years ago: 399.32 ppm ๐Ÿ“ท http://CO2.Earthhttps://co2.earth/daily-co2. Credit: World Meteorological Organization

Pacific Northwest tribal nations, states sign historic #ColumbiaRiver Basin agreement with U.S. — The Seattle Times

Columbia River Basin. By U.S. Army Corps of Engineers – Portland District Visual Information, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=8963386

Click the link to read the article on The Seattle Times website

Leaders of four Pacific Northwest tribal nations indigenous to the region on Friday inked a historic agreement with the U.S. that lays out the future of the operations of hydropower dams in the Columbia River Basin, including the dams on the Lower Snake River. At the White House on Friday, the Nez Perce, Umatilla, Warm Springs and Yakama tribes, and the states of Washington and Oregon, signed a memorandum of understanding, outlining a series of commitments from the federal government. Itโ€™s not an agreement for dam removal; in fact, removal of the Lower Snake dams, a long-running and controversial goal of tribes and other groups, is put off for years. But itโ€™s the end of an era.

โ€œWe need a lot more clean energy, but we need to develop it in a way thatโ€™s socially just,โ€ Yakama Nation Chair Gerald Lewis said at the White House. โ€œThe last time energy was developed in the Columbia Basin it was done on the backs of tribal communities and tribal resources.โ€

[…]

Tribal nations helped draw up a road map for the future of the regionโ€™s energy and salmon.ย Under the $1 billion-plus agreementย announced in December and approved by a federal judge this month,tribes will help restore wild fish and lead in the construction of at least 1 to 3 gigawatts of clean-energy production. The agreement stems from years of mediated negotiations in a decadeslong court battle over dam operations. A stay of litigation is in place for up to five years and could continue for as long as 10. In a key compromise, the agreement also reduces water spilled over the dams for summer and fall run fish, including fall Chinook, one of the more robust salmon runs on the river, and a mainstay of tribal and sport fisheries. That allows the Bonneville Power Administration to sell more power from the dams into the lucrative California power market. However, spring spill would be boosted, to help spring Chinook by providing something more like a spring freshet for young fish migrating to the sea.

It comes as climate change turns more mountain snowย to rain, throwing imperiled salmon and steelheadย into hot water, and straining access to aย steady stream of hydropower.

Map of the Columbia River watershed with the Columbia River highlighted. By Kmusser – self-made, based on USGS and Digital Chart of the World data., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3844725

Global #climate summary for January 2024 — NOAA

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:

Highlights

  • Temperatures were above average over much of the globe, but the eastern United States, most of Europe and a few other areas were cooler than average.ย 
  • There is a 22% chance that 2024 will be the warmest year in NOAAโ€™s 175-year record and a 79% chance that El Niรฑo will transition to neutral conditions by mid-year.
  • Northern Hemisphere snow cover was near average, but Antarctic sea ice extent was fifth lowest on record for January.ย 
  • Global precipitation was nearly record-high in January, following on the heels of a record-wet December.ย 

Temperature

The January global surface temperature was 2.29ยฐF (1.27ยฐC) above the 20th-century average of 54.0ยฐF (12.2ยฐC), making it the warmest January on record. This was 0.07ยฐF (0.04ยฐC) above the previous record from January 2016. According to NCEIโ€™s Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a 22% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record and a 99% chance that it will rank in the top five.

(map) Global surface temperatures for January 2024 compared to the 1991-2020 average, showing a few colder-than-average locations (blue) scattered among mostly warmer-than-average temperatures (red). (graph) January temperatures each year from 1850-2024 compared to the 20th-century average. It’s been several decades since we’ve had a January that was colder than average (blue bars, below the zero line). January 2024 (final red bar)ย  was the warmest January on record. Januarys are getting warmer at a rate of 1.09 หšF (0.61 หšC) per century. NOAA Climate.gov images, based on data from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

January saw a record-high monthly global ocean surface temperature for the 10th consecutive month. El Niรฑo conditions that emerged in June 2023 continued into January, but according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center it is likely that El Niรฑo will transition to ENSO-neutral by Aprilโ€“June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niรฑa developing in Juneโ€“August 2024 (55% chance).

Temperatures were above average throughout the Arctic, most of northeastern North America, central Russia, southern and western Asia, Africa, South America, eastern and southeastern Asia and Australia. Much of northwestern North America, the central and southern United States, northern and eastern Europe, northeastern Asia and Antarctica experienced near-to- cooler-than-average temperatures during January. Sea surface temperatures were above average across much of the northern, western and equatorial Pacific Ocean, as well as parts of the western Indian Oceans. 

Precipitation

  • The El Niรฑo rainfall anomaly pattern over the central and western Pacific Ocean and Maritime Continent has weakened.
  • Further afield the patterns over the Indian Ocean, Africa and the southern U.S. are more clearly El Niรฑo-like.
  • Overall the pattern correlation between this Januaryโ€™s rainfall anomaly pattern and the El Niรฑo composite plummeted from a high of +0.59 last month to only +0.19.
  • Global total precipitation for this January is nearly a record high following Decemberโ€™s record high for that month of the year.
Percent difference from long-term average (1979-present) precipitation in January 2024. Places that were drier than average are brown; places that were wetter than average are green. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project.

The current El Niรฑo continues through January, but the departures from average on the global map show a mixed pattern, with some rainfall excess/deficit features typical of El Niรฑo situations and others differing from the expected pattern. In the central and eastern Pacific along the Intertropical Convergence Zone, there is still a narrow, strong positive anomaly as typical of El Niรฑo, with a rainfall deficit just to the north and south. But just to the west the wide positive feature expected at ~180ยฐ longitude at the Equator is weak this month, despite the Niรฑo 3.4 Index being +1.9, easily within strong El Niรฑo range. [The “Niรฑo 3.4 Index” tracks sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean: the key ENSO monitoring region].

The match between this January and the El Niรฑo composite becomes even more fraught over the Maritime Continent to the west where generally very dry conditions are typical of El Niรฑo, but rainfall is in excess over Borneo and Malaysia, although deficit features exist over some surrounding areas, especially between Sumatra and Australia. Australia itself is typically very dry during El Niรฑos, but for this January it is mostly wetter than normal across the continent, and there was even flooding first in Victoria and then heavy rains in northern and northeastern parts of the country later in the month.

Northern South America is mostly dry, as is typical of El Niรฑo, but the rest of the pattern does not match well. The spatial correlation of Januaryโ€™s anomaly pattern with the El Niรฑo composite has plummeted to +0.19 from a high of +0.59 in December, seemingly indicating a weakening of El Niรฑo at core tropical locations. It will be interesting to see if that type of change continues next month, or if this is a temporary change. Models are predicting an end to the El Niรฑo over the next few months. [Read more about what we can expect from the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation this spring in Climate.gov’s latest ENSO Blog post.]

For a deeper dive on January 2024 climate, including circulation patterns, major events, and separate statistics and rankings for Earth’s land and ocean areas, see the full January 2024 monthly report from NOAA NCEI.

On the #ColoradoRiver, there are no Simple Disputes — Eric Kuhn (InkStain.net) #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the article on the InkStain website (Eric Kuhn):

February 22, 2024

One of the commentors to our January 19th, 2024, blog post titled โ€œAre We headed for the First Colorado River Compact Tripwire?โ€ โ€“ John C. (who, by-the-way runs a very talented water resources engineering firm) raised several finer points to explore further:

The first point deals with obligations of each Basin to contribute water needed to meet U.S. obligations to Mexico under the 1944 Treaty. The second deals with the question of how to measure, and therefore manage, in the context of overall Colorado River Basin management, the use of tributary water in the Lower Basin. Both represent unresolved legal questions with enormous potential impacts on the allocation and distribution of the shrinking Colorado River โ€“ questions we have avoided dealing with by draining the Basinโ€™s reservoirs. We no longer have that option.

The two issues have been disputed for decades. They are, of course, totally inter-related, and when one peels back the layers of each, the problems get so complicated that the only real solution may be for the Basinโ€™s states and other stakeholders to ignore their past positions and grievances and negotiate a river management approach that works on the river we have today, even if that means changes to the foundation of the Law of the River, the 1922 Compact.

MEXICO OBLIGATION

The different interpretations of the Upper Basinโ€™s delivery obligations to Mexico under Article III(c) are well understood throughout the Basin. III(c) says that water for Mexico should be provided from โ€œsurplusโ€. If there is no surplus, the Upper and Lower Basins much each provide half the necessary water. But there has never been agreement on what that language means in practice. This unresolved uncertainty has enormous implications for how much water is available to each basin in the future.

The Lower Division States take the position that thereโ€™s no current โ€œsurplus,โ€ as defined by Article III (c), thus the Upper Division States must deliver at Lee Ferry 50% of however much water is required to be delivered under the Treaty. The annual delivery is normally 1.5 maf/year, but under either the โ€œextraordinary droughtโ€ provision of the Treaty, or Minutes, it could be less. In 2023, it was 1.4 maf.

The Lower Division Statesโ€™ position would dictate an average annual delivery of 8.25 maf/year at Lee Ferry, 7.5 maf under Article III(d) + 750,000 af under Article III(c). The 8.25 maf includes an average contribution of 20,000 af/year from the Paria River and would be adjusted for the occasional annual delivery of less than 1.5 maf. Veterans of the negotiations that led to the 2007 Interim Guidelines will recall that Arizonaโ€™s Herb Guenther always brought with him to the meetings a posterboard sign with โ€œ8.25โ€ written on it.

Going back to the 1970 decision by the Secretary of the Interior to set the โ€œminimum objective releaseโ€ from Glen Canyon Dam at 8.23 maf/year, the Upper Division States have consistently taken the position that their annual obligation Mexico has never been formally defined and, whatever it is, it is not 750,000 af/year, every year. While they vigorously complained, they never chose to formally challenge the issue in court or in Congress, perhaps because they concluded that they couldnโ€™t show that any of their interests were injured. Today, based on post-2000 hydrology, that dynamic may have fundamentally changed.

The basic position of each basin has not changed. If anything, because the stakes are much higher, the positions have hardened. In a December 20, 2022, scoping letter to Reclamation, Arizonaโ€™s Tom Buschatzke, and Ted Cooke, wrote: โ€œArticle III(d) and (c) prohibits the Upper Division States from depleting the flow of the river at Lee Ferry below a rolling 10-year aggregate of 75 maf plus one-half of the Mexico delivery obligation. With reduced releases from Glen Canyon Dam potentially analyzed under the SEIS, if the 10-year rolling aggregate falls below the required aggregate volume, the Upper Division States could be subject to a โ€œCompact callโ€ that would require a reduction in consumptive use in the Upper Basin.  In footnote 1, they add โ€œA โ€œsurplusโ€ currently does not exist because natural flows in the Colorado River have not exceeded 16 maf in the past 10 years.โ€  In their August 15, 2023, scoping letter, the three Lower Division States write: โ€œThe Post-2026 EIS must analyze whether alternatives are consistent with the 1922 Colorado River Compact non-depletion obligations and delivery obligations to Mexico. Alternatives should include actions necessary to ensure compliance with such obligations.โ€

Eugene Clyde LaRue measuring the flow in Nankoweap Creek, 1923. Photo credit: USGS

The Upper Division States are equally adamant that because of overuse in the Lower Basin, they currently have no annual obligation to Mexico under Article III(c). Note that I used the term โ€œLower Basinโ€ because under the 1922 Compact, the Lower Basin includes the upper Gila River in New Mexico, where uses are small, Kanab Creek in Utah and Arizona, again uses are small, and the Virgin River, shared by Nevada, Arizona, and Utah, where uses are not small. The Virgin River is the water supply for the rapidly growing St. George area.  As a state, Utah consumes the second largest amount of Lower Basin tributary water, about 150,000 af/year, albeit much less than Arizona.

In recent public presentations, Colorado Commissioner Becky Mitchell has stated that the Lower Basinโ€™s total annual use, including tributaries and reservoir evaporation, were 10.5 maf in 2020, 10.8 maf in 2021, and 10.4 maf in 2022, far more than the Lower Basinโ€™s compact apportionment (7.5 maf under Article III(a) plus 1.0 maf under Article III(b)). Their position is that the Lower Basinโ€™s overuse is โ€œsurplusโ€ water that must first be used to meet the 1944 Treaty obligations to Mexico before the Upper Division States have any obligation to Mexico, a position the Lower Division States do not agree with.

The situation is messy. As I explain below, Mitchellโ€™s 10-plus million acre foot calculation is based on analysis that contains a hidden assumption about the correct way to measure water use, an assumption at odds with the method the Upper Basin has traditionally used to measure its own water use. But when one peels back the layers, itโ€™s even messier. First, there is no agreement on whether the obligation of the Upper Division States to Mexico is calculated on an annual basis, a ten-year rolling aggregate basis, or something else (Iโ€™m in the something else camp). The predominant position the Upper Division States is, as mentioned in Johnโ€™s comments, that the since the 1944 treaty provides for an annual delivery to Mexico (which can change), therefore, the obligation of the Upper Division States is determined annually. As can be seen by the language in the Arizona and Lower Division States letter, the Lower Basin statesโ€™ position is based on a ten-year rolling aggregate. The logic of this position is that the last sentence of Article III(c) states: โ€œwhenever necessary the States of the Upper Division shall deliver at Lee Ferry water to supply one-half of the deficiency so recognized in addition to that provided in paragraph (d).โ€  Paragraph (d) is a ten-year requirement; does it make sense to add an annual requirement to a ten-year requirement? Further, the data necessary to determine whether a deficiency exists (and thus the obligation of each basin) would not be available until well after the water year is over.

My reading of the reports of the compact commissioners, their Congressional testimony, and the minutes of both the 1922 and 1948 suggests a third possible alternative.  The negotiators of the 1922 Compact, the 1944 Treaty, and the 1948 Compact considered the surplus to be the difference between the average long-term natural flow of the river at the international boundary and 16 million acre-feet, the aggregate of the apportionments made by Articles III(a) and III(b). During the negotiations of the 1948 Compact, Coloradoโ€™s Royce Tipton and Arizonaโ€™s Charles Carson laid out the logic. Based on the comprehensive hydrologic analysis conducted by Reclamation (Appendix I of the 1947 Comprehensive Report), the estimated long-term natural flow below the confluence of the Colorado and Gila Rivers was 17.7 maf/year. Subtracting 16 maf left an average surplus of 1.7 maf, 1.5 maf for Mexico and about 200 kaf for surplus uses within the United States. Upper Division State officials argued that with this hydrology there was no deficiency. Coloradoโ€™s Tipton and Clifford Stone (its 1948 Compact Commissioner), however, did acknowledge that the location of the surplus was an important factor.

With their 1940s understanding of the river hydrology, the Upper Division States did not want the deficiency calculated either on an annual basis or a ten-year running average. They understood that in both cases, they would be required to deliver more water to Mexico than using the long-term average. Under an annual determination, there would be many years (~50%) when there was a deficiency. Under the ten-year rolling average, there would be long periods when it would be below 16 maf/year and there would be a deficiency (the 1930s drought period for example) but provided the long-term average was more than 17.5 maf/year, there would be no deficiency. Tipton also made the point that in the future, the construction of additional storage reservoirs (like Lake Powell) would effectively โ€œequateโ€ the river. Todayโ€™s problem with this approach is that in the 1940s, the basinโ€™s water managers assumed a level of โ€œstationarityโ€ (future river flows can be predicted by what happened in the past) that because of climate change does not exist today.

Resource: Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?

An additional problem we have today is the calculation of the deficiency is based on the natural flow at the international border with Mexico, not Lee Ferry. Note that the Arizona letter states, โ€œnatural flows in the Colorado River have not exceeded 16 maf/year.โ€ That statement is very likely true, but there are no data to back it up. Unlike Lee Ferry, there are no recent calculations of annual natural flows at the international border. There is no Colorado River system natural flow database. The existing database includes natural flows to Leeโ€™s Ferry, but downstream to the Imperial Diversion Dam, Reclamation acknowledges that they have little confidence in these data and much of it is not based on reconstructed natural flows.  Importantly, the existing natural flow database does not include the Gila River system.

The last widely published estimate of natural flows at the international border was completed by the Bureau of Reclamation nearly eighty years ago (Appendix I). These data were used during the 1944 Treaty ratification hearings and, to a lesser extent, by the 1948 Compact negotiators. Appendix I shows an average natural flow at the border of 17.72 maf/year. At Lee Ferry, it was 16.41 maf/year (based on1898-1943). Assuming a similar relationship between the flows today, from 2000-2023 the estimated natural flow at the border, including the Gila, would be approximately 13.5 maf/year (12.44/16.41 x 17.72). Note, because of climate change, which appears to have a greater impact on the southern tributaries of the Colorado River system, the relationship may no longer be reasonable.

Gila River watershed. Graphic credit: Wikimedia

Updating the natural flow database to include the Gila River has been suggested by Upper Division State officials, but Arizona has historically objected. Clearly this would not be an easy task and there would be large uncertainties, especially estimating with any certainty natural losses on the Colorado River below Hoover Dam and on the Gila River from the Phoenix area to Yuma under todayโ€™s climatic conditions.

LOWER BASIN TRIBUTARY USE

The Gila River is also the central subject of John C.โ€™s second comment that Arizona, California, and Nevada should be concerned that including mainstem consumptive uses, tributary consumptive uses (including those in Utah and New Mexico), reservoir evaporation, and maybe system losses, the Lower Basin total consumptive uses exceed its compact apportionment of 8.5 maf/year. Alternatively, Lower Basin tributary consumptive uses far exceed 1.0 million acre-feet โ€“ if one believes Article III(b) was intended to only cover Lower Basin tributaries.  The problem with this argument is that there is no 1922 Compact definition of โ€œbeneficial consumptive useโ€ (the โ€œcommodityโ€ the Compact apportions). This is especially important for the Lower Basin tributaries.

There are different interpretations among the states and between the basins of how โ€œbeneficial consumptive useโ€ should be defined and therefore measured. Each has a strong legal argument in its favor. But their approaches result in vastly different numbers, and as my co-author John Fleck has written, โ€œThereโ€™s not enough water for all the lawyers to be right.โ€

Article VI of 1948 Compact defines and provides a method measuring compact apportionments for the Upper Basin. The 1964 decree in Arizona v. California defines how to measure the mainstem apportionments made to the Lower Division States under the 1928 Boulder Canyon Project Act. Since the 1963 decision did not interpret the 1922 Compact and there is no Lower Basin Sub-Compact, there is no accepted or defined method for measuring 1922 Compact apportionments on the Lower Basin tributaries (and arguably the entire Lower Basin).  The methods used by the 1948 Compact and the 1964 Decree are very different. The 1964 Decree uses the concept of โ€œdiversions minus return flows.โ€ It comes from the language of the Boulder Canyon Project Act. Stream losses and reservoir evaporation from Hoover Dam to the points of diversion are not considered a use, but rather a limitation on the available supply.

September 21, 1923, 9:00 a.m. — Colorado River at Lees Ferry. From right bank on line with Klohr’s house and gage house. Old “Dugway” or inclined gage shows to left of gage house. Gage height 11.05′, discharge 27,000 cfs. Lens 16, time =1/25, camera supported. Photo by G.C. Stevens of the USGS. Source: 1921-1937 Surface Water Records File, Colorado R. @ Lees Ferry, Laguna Niguel Federal Records Center, Accession No. 57-78-0006, Box 2 of 2 , Location No. MB053635.

The 1948 Compact approach for defining and measuring consumptive use under Article VI is based on what was referred to as the โ€œstream depletionโ€ theory. Consumptive uses for the Upper Basin and for the individual states are measured as the net impact of man-made depletions on the natural (AKA virgin) flow of the Colorado River at Lee Ferry using the โ€œinput-outputโ€ method. The 1948 Compact gives the UCRC the authority to change the method by unanimous approval. The UCRC has instructed its staff to identify an alternative to the input-output method, so this may happen soon.  Article VI was one of the most debated and carefully written articles in the 1948 Compact. The negotiators had a clear objective in mind. They wanted to carefully define how to measure compact apportionments so that water made available for consumption through โ€œsalvage by useโ€ would not count as compact apportioned use.

The issue of salvaged water was a major dispute among the basin states in the 1940s and 1950s. Simply put, salvaged water is water made available for use by the reduction of natural losses caused by the development of the river. The best example of salvage by use is Arizonaโ€™s Gila River. As the Gila River and its two major tributaries, the Salt and Verde Rivers, leave the rim country upstream of Phoenix, they have a combined average natural flow of over 2.0 maf/year (2.3 according to the 1947 report). As the river flows to its confluence at Yuma, in its natural state it loses about 1.0 maf/per year. By diverting and using the entirety of Gila Riverโ€™s waters upstream, these losses are eliminated. Thus, Arizona can consume a million af/year more water than what the Gila River contributes to the natural flow of the Colorado River system.  Under the โ€œstream depletionโ€ theory, which was favored by Arizona and the Upper Division States, Arizona is only charged for a million acre-feet of 1922 Compact apportionment. Under Californiaโ€™s โ€œdiversions minus return flowsโ€ theory, also favored by Nevada, all 2+ maf/year of Arizonaโ€™s Gila River consumptive use would be charged as 1922 Compact apportionment.

The Upper Basin adopted the stream depletion theory during an era when the states were competing for every acre-foot possible. They thought could benefit by 400,000 -600,000 af per year. Simply put, in years when the water was physically available, the Upper Basin could consume 7.9 โ€“ 8.1 maf/year while only depleting the natural flow of the river at Lee Ferry by 7.5 maf/year (their compact apportionment). The negotiators never contemplated that 75 years later, the water available to the Upper Basin would be far less than 7.5 maf.

During the negotiations of the 1948 Upper Basin Compact, the decision to use the stream depletion theory was thoroughly debated. Wyomingโ€™s legal advisor, W. J. Wehrli, warned the other states that using this definition would benefit the Lower Basin far more than the Upper Basin. Additionally, he noted that it could reduce the amount of surplus water under Article III(c), potentially increasing the obligation of the Upper Division States to Mexico. Wyoming ultimately fell in line and agreed to the Article VI definition. During the Congressional debate over the authorization of the Central Arizona Project, Upper Division State officials (primarily Tipton and Stone) testified in favor of the stream depletion theory, arguing that the negotiators of the 1922 Compact intended this method to measure apportionments. Note, the compact does not include a definition of โ€œbeneficial consumptive use,โ€ they made their case based on an analysis of the minutes and the use of the term โ€œdepletedโ€ in Article III(d).

The structural deficit refers to the consumption by Lower Basin states of more water than enters Lake Mead each year. The deficit, which includes losses from evaporation, is estimated at 1.2 million acre-feet a year. (Image: Central Arizona Project circa 2019)

The Upper Division States make a rhetorically powerful public argument that in the face of climate change, overuse in the Lower Basin is the central problem in the Colorado River Basin that must be solved to reach a sustainable future where water use, and the available supply are in balance. The argument is that when mainstem uses, reservoir evaporation, system conveyance losses, and tributary consumptive uses (in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) are added together, the Lower Basinโ€™s total use exceeds ten maf/year, perhaps as high as eleven maf/year. The Lower Basinโ€™s compact apportionment, however, is only 8.5 maf/year (perhaps 7.5 maf/year depending on how Article III(b) is interpreted), resulting in an overuse of at least 1.5 maf/year. Such an overuse has major policy implications:

  • If the Lower Basin is overusing its compact entitlement, why should the Upper Basin, which is using far less than its apportionment, reduce its uses to help bring the system into balance?
  • Should the Lower Basinโ€™s overuse be considered โ€œsurplusโ€ water under Article III(c)? If so, should this surplus water be delivered to Mexico before the Upper Division States have any obligation to deliver half of the deficiency to Mexico?
  • These two questions have implications for Mexico, if the Lower Basin is overusing its compact apportionment, why should Mexico reduce its annual use?

The problem with the Upper Basinโ€™s argument is that itโ€™s based on the diversions less return flow theory. If the Lower Basinโ€™s uses are calculated based on the stream depletion theory โ€“ the methodology the Upper Basin adopted in its own 1948 Upper Basin Compact, uses may not be greater than 8.5 maf/year.

Stream DepletionDiversions less Return Flows
Mainstem uses (a)6.6 maf/year6.6 maf/year
Reservoir Evaporation (b)0.5 maf/year0.86 maf/year
System Losses (c)00.45 maf/year
Tributary Uses (d)1.2 maf/year2.2 maf/year
Total8.3 maf/year10.1 maf/year

Explanation:

a) Mainstem uses (deliveries from Hoover Dam) are very similar under both theories. Almost all mainstem uses are either fully consumptive or located low in the system. The average mainstem use by the Lower Division States over the last five years (2019-2023) is approximately 6.6 maf/year.

b) Under diversions less return flows the 0.86 maf/year is the average evaporation (2017-2021) from the December 2023 Reclamation study. Under the stream depletion theory, reservoir evaporation is calculated as surface evaporation less the natural losses in the inundation area that would have occurred had the reservoir not been built. This is how evaporation on Lake Powell is calculated. I estimated natural losses as .36 maf/year.

c) The 0.45 maf/year is from the December 2023 Reclamation study. Under the stream depletion theory, system losses are offset by salvaged water. As a practical matter, we have no idea how much salvaged water is currently generated on the mainstem below Hoover Dam, but we do know that the channel is much smaller today than it was before development. In 1945 during the Mexican Treaty ratification hearings, Coloradoโ€™s Royce Tipton estimated the number to be 400,000 af/year. Iโ€™ll assume they offset.

d)Under diversion less return flows, tributary uses are 2.2 maf/year, the latest data from the 2001-2005 Consumptive Uses and Losses and Report. Under the stream depletion theory, itโ€™s reduced by 1.0 maf/year, the estimated salvage on the Gila River from the 1947 study. Because of climate change, losses today may be greater, but no data are available.

Thus, using the diversions less return flows theory, the Lower Basin is clearly using more than 8.5 maf/year, but under Upper Basinโ€™s own stream depletion theory, it is not. Since the 1922 Compact neither defines nor prescribes a way to measure โ€œbeneficial consumptive use,โ€ the basic question โ€“ โ€œis the Lower Basin overusing its compact apportionment?โ€ simply cannot be answered. [ed. emphasis mine]

These disputes also point to the fundamental flaw with the statesโ€™ talking point that the 1922 Compact, the 1948 Upper Basin Compact, and the Mexican Treaty will serve as the foundation of the post-2026 operating rules. There is no agreement on what they say or mean. As the states continue their discussions with the goal of agreeing on a state proposal, they need to consider addressing the disputed compact issues in a straight-forward manner. Leaving these critical uncertainties for future generations to handle (like we have in the past) is no longer possible and asking the Supreme Court for a resolution will likely make matters worse, not better.

Map credit: AGU

Pitkin County exploring concern that Shoshone deal could harm #RoaringForkRiver: Upper Fork ‘lives and dies’ on the Cameo call — @AspenJournalism #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

The Shoshone hydropower plant in Glenwood Canyon has one of the oldest non-consumptive water rights on the main stem of the Colorado River and that right is in the process of being acquired by the Colorado River Water Conservation District. Pitkin County is exploring potential impacts the deal might create for the upper Roaring Fork River.ย CREDIT:ย BRENT GARDNER-SMITH/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

February 21, 2024

An historic deal to put a senior water right in the hands of the Colorado River Water Conservation District has been celebrated as a victory for the Western Slope. But Pitkin County officials say thereโ€™s a chance it could harm the upper Roaring Fork River.

Map of the Roaring Fork River drainage basin in western Colorado, USA. Made using USGS data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=69290878

In December, the Glenwood Springs-based River District signed a deal with Xcel Energy to buy water rights associated with the Shoshone hydropower plant in Glenwood Canyon for $98.5 million. As some of the biggest and oldest non-consumptive water rights on the mainstem of the Colorado River, they ensure water keeps flowing west to the benefit of downstream users because the water runs through Shoshoneโ€™s power-generating turbines and then returns to the river.

Pitkin Countyโ€™s concerns have to do with the complex interaction of the Shoshone water rights with another set of big downstream water rights known as Cameo, which are made up of Grand Valley irrigation water rights. These two senior water rights have the ability to command the flow of the Colorado River and force Front Range cities that send water from the Coloradoโ€™s headwaters across the Continental Divide to shut their diversions off.

Under Coloradoโ€™s cornerstone of water law, known as prior appropriation, oldest rights get first use of the water. When a senior water right isnโ€™t receiving its full amount, it can place a โ€œcall.โ€ When Shoshone, which dates to 1902, places a call, transmountain diverters like Denver Water and Northern Water have to shut off. When Cameo places a call, the Twin Lakes Reservoir and Canal Co., which takes water from the top of the Roaring Fork basin to Colorado Springs, Pueblo and Aurora, has to shut off because its 1930s water rights are junior to Cameoโ€™s 1912 water rights.

About 600 cfs of water from the Roaring Fork River basin flowing out of the east end of the Twin Lakes Independence Pass Tunnel on June 7, 2017. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism

Pitkin Countyโ€™s concern is that with Shoshone under new ownership โ€” and the proposed addition of an instream flow use for the water along with hydropower โ€” the call for the water through Glenwood Canyon could be on more often, which might delay or reduce the need for the Cameo call. Aspenites like to see the Cameo call come on because it forces the Twin Lakes diversion to shut off, which means more water flowing down the Roaring Fork, typically during a time of year in late summer and early fall when streamflows are running low and river health is suffering.

โ€œThe upper Roaring Fork lives and dies on the Cameo call because thatโ€™s what curtails Twin Lakes,โ€ Pitkin County Attorney John Ely, who sits on the River Districtโ€™s board, said in an interview with Aspen Journalism. โ€œIf the Cameo call is changed through administration of the river because there is a change in the flow going to satisfy Shoshone, then that could delay Cameo, which would prolong the operation at Twin Lakes and deplete the upper Fork.โ€

Pitkin Countyย in November hiredย Golden-based engineering firm Martin and Wood Water Consultants to do a technical analysis and modeling of the Colorado and Roaring Fork rivers. They bill in monthly installments and have charged Pitkin County $6,600 so far, according to Ely; the firm is expected to produce a report after they finish studying the issue, although Ely did not say when that would be.

Graphic credit: Laurine Lassalle/Aspen Journalism

Health of Roaring Fork dependent on Cameo

The River District has said the goal of owning the Shoshone right is to preserve the status quo and keep water flowing west the same way it always has. Xcel representatives have said they intend to keep operating the plant for hydropower, but the facility is old, frequently offline for repairs and located in a treacherous area of Glenwood Canyon.

Ely isnโ€™t so sure that nothing would change. If the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) was to place a Shoshone instream flow call, it could alter the way the system has historically operated, he said. The CWCB is the only entity allowed to hold an instream flow water right, which is intended to preserve the natural environment to a reasonable degree.

โ€œIf it wasnโ€™t going to change the administration of the river, why would anyone pay $98 million for it? โ€ฆ The potential for injury (to the Roaring Fork) is most definitely there,โ€ he said.

River District General Counsel Peter Fleming said the organization is working with Pitkin County to look into the issue.

โ€œThe question has arisen and weโ€™re working in good faith with the county to identify and resolve any concerns,โ€ he said. โ€œWeโ€™re going to determine whether there is an actual issue that we can accommodate.โ€

The Cameo call comes on most years in late summer. But it occurs for more days in dry years than wet ones. According to a database maintained by the Colorado Division of Water Resources, in 2019 and 2023 โ€” both years with above-average snowpack and runoff โ€” the Cameo call was on for 22 and 24 days, respectively. In 2020 and 2021 โ€” two back-to-back below-average years โ€” Cameo called for 88 and 75 days, respectively.

The health of the upper Roaring Fork may be more dependent on the Cameo call in drought years.

Wendy Huber is board chair of Pitkin County Healthy Rivers, a taxpayer-funded organization focused on maintaining and improving water quality and quantity in the Roaring Fork watershed that doles out grants and advises the board of county commissioners. She said Healthy Rivers needs more information from engineers about the impacts from any changes to Shoshone on the Cameo call.

โ€œThe Cameo call may allow more water to remain in the Roaring Fork to satisfy the call,โ€ Huber said. โ€œWe need to understand the potential impact on quantity of water in our Roaring Fork Valley rivers, especially the Roaring Fork and Crystal rivers.โ€

Ely said he is optimistic Pitkin County will reach a resolution with the River District, at which point the county would be in a position to support the Shoshone permanency campaign. The River District has committed $20 million from its own pocket, and so far has secured $20 million in funding from the CWCB and $2 million from Grand Valley domestic water provider Ute Water Conservancy District toward purchasing the Shoshone rights. It is in the process of seeking funding from other entities in its 15-county district.

โ€œWater is just simply too scarce a resource to not be mindful that you must protect your interests,โ€ Ely said. โ€œWeโ€™re not looking to get in the way of Eagle and Garfield and Mesa counties protecting themselves, but we donโ€™t want to sacrifice our river for them to be able to do so.โ€

This story ran in the Feb. 22 edition of theย Glenwood Springs Post-Independent.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Senators and Agencies Support Improving Tribal Access to Clean Water at Committee Legislative Hearing — Getches-Wilkinson Center

Manuel Heart, Ute Mountain Ute Chairman. Photo credit: Getches-Wilkinson Center

Click the link to read the article on the Getches-Wilkinson Center website (Frannie Monasterio):

February 21, 2024

On Thursday, February 8, 2024, the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs held a Legislative Hearing to gather more information about several tribal bills,1including S. 2385, the Tribal Access to Clean Water Act of 2023, which we have covered in a previous blog. It was the Committeeโ€™s first hearing in 2024.

Witnesses commenting on the Act included Melanie Anne Egorin, Assistant Secretary for Legislation the Department of Health and Human Services; Kathryn Isom-Clause, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Indian Affairs within the Department of the Interior; and Manuel Heart, Chairman of the Ute Mountain Ute of Colorado.

Though several bills were raised during the Hearing, comments from Senators Bennet (D-Colorado) and Murkowski (R-Alaska) focused almost exclusively on the lack of access to water and water infrastructure experienced by Tribes.

Some of the Ute Indian Tribe’s irrigation system is in poor condition, as shown here on the Uintah Canal east of Salt Lake City. Source: Tribal Water Study

Senator Bennet, who introduced the Tribal Access to Clean Water Act last year in July, highlighted that โ€œonly half of households on Native American reservations have clean water or adequate sanitation.โ€2ย Senator Bennet stated the lack of water access โ€œis completely unacceptable to me, and it should be unacceptable to every member of the United States Senate. No family in this country should have to raise their children without clean water. No member of a Tribe should have to accept circumstances none of us would accept for our own family.โ€3

Senator Murkowski raised concerns for water access for Alaska Native communities. Lack of access to indoor plumbing, she noted, impacts one in ten Native Americans in 2024, and is โ€œone of our great public health challenges in rural Alaska and so many parts of the country.โ€4

Ms. Egorin of the Department of Health and Human Services, within which the Indian Health Service (IHS) is housed, acknowledged that โ€œtoo many tribal families still do not have access to clean water and reliable wastewater infrastructure.โ€ The Department is still reviewing the implications of the Act and has not expressed support but stated it โ€œwould like to continue to work with the bill sponsors and Committee to ensure compatibility with existing sanitation facility authorities, and determine the best way to serve non-eligible homes and commercial properties located within tribal communities.โ€5

Ms. Egorin also commented on S. 3022, the IHS Workforce Parity Act of 2023, as a means to help address staffing issues chronically experienced by the IHS. Although healthcare services and sanitation services are different programs within the agency, the two are related. Health and Human Services reported that โ€œ[t]he absence of clean water to sanitation facilities for tribal households exacerbate concern for the Indian Health Service Clinical Health Care Programโ€ and that โ€œ[e]fforts by other public health specialists such as nutritionists and public health nurses are much more effective when safe water and adequate wastewater disposal systems are available in the home.โ€Furthermore, โ€œ[e]very $1 spent on water and sewer infrastructure will save $1.23 in avoided direct healthcare cost.โ€7

Ms. Isom-Clause, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Indian Affairs within the Department of the Interior, also commented on the S. 2385 and some of the services offered by Interior programs that help address water security issues. The โ€œBureau of Reclamationโ€™s Native American Affairs Technical Assistance Program or TAP,โ€ for example, โ€œprovides technical assistance to Tribes to develop, manage, and protect their water and related resourcesโ€ and supports โ€œa broad range of activities, including water needs assessments, improved water management studies, water quality data collection assessments, and water measurement studies.โ€8

Though Interior has not expressly supported S. 2385,9 it โ€œis committed to further developing this program in the coming years, including with the FY 2024 President’s Budget Request ofโ€ $23.5 million.10

Ms. Egorin and Ms. Isom-Clause did not comment on water-related treaty obligations or trust responsibilities the United States has to Tribes.

Manuel Heart, Chairman of the Ute Mountain Ute of Colorado, poignantly stated, โ€œ[o]ne of the most significant issues facing the Tribe today is access to reliable, clean drinking water.โ€ He detailed Ute Mountain Uteโ€™s ongoing challenges in addressing water insecurity in both his oral testimony and prepared statement, highlighting the looming difficulties many western Tribes face when trying to access water. Chairman Heart supported S. 2385 as โ€œa necessary first step to meeting . . . the United Statesโ€™ treaty obligation and trust responsibility to Ute Mountain Ute people.โ€11

One of these hurdles is that the Ute Mountain Uteโ€™s tribal lands span three states: Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah. The result is that Ute Mountain Ute must coordinate with each state individually as water issues surface

Lake Nighthorse and Durango March 2016 photo via Greg Hobbs.

In Colorado, the Ute Mountain Ute experience the dichotomy of paper water, the amount of water to which they are legally entitled, and โ€œwet water,โ€ the water that they actually receive.12ย Under โ€œthe Colorado Ute Settlement Act of 2000,โ€ the Ute Mountain Ute were guaranteed โ€œ16,525 acre-feet of water from theย Animas-La Plata Project (ALP)ย at Lake Nighthorse. However, year after year, the Tribe has been unable to access its water due to the lack of water infrastructure connecting the ALP project to the Tribeโ€™s reservation lands.โ€13ย Ute Mountain Ute receive no compensation for leaving the water available from the Animas-La Plata.14

White Mesa Mill. Photo credit: Energy Fuels

Meanwhile, in Utah, the Ute Mountain Ute White Mesa community is afraid to drink the water available to them because of a uranium mill located 2.5 miles north.15 โ€œPresently the Tribe is in discussion with the state engineer of Utah in settling the Tribeโ€™s water rights in White Mesa.โ€16

Beyond the aforementioned issues, tribal water infrastructure projects are plagued by capacity limits. Many projects, for example, require planning and design to become shovel-ready.17 Operations and maintenance after construction also remain a problem. Relatedly, Senator Murkowski noted a study by the Government Accountability Office โ€œto examine the operation and maintenance issue in greater detail.โ€18

Although not mentioned directly in this Hearing, parity to access Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) funding is another issue for other North American Indigenous communities. Senator Bennet hinted at it when he โ€œwelcomed the Committeeโ€™s feedback on how to approve this legislation so we can ensure Native Hawaiians and Alaska Natives and Tribes across the country can access Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funds to guarantee reliable access to clean water.โ€19ย The issue was also raised during the Committeeโ€™sย Oversight Hearing on Water as a Trust Resource, held in September 2023, when Mr. Kali Watson, Director the Department of Hawaiian Home Lands, stated that Native Hawaiians were not eligible for BIL funds for water and other infrastructure needs.20

The relationship between Tribes and the federal government creates additional, unique hurdles for accessing clean water. Senator Murkowski recalled the September Hearing โ€œon the trust responsibility of providing for water and sanitations needs for those in our Native communitiesโ€ and noted โ€œthe significance, the importance, [and] the responsibility to deliver clean, affordable water to our Native communities.โ€21 Senator Bennet stated that the lack of water infrastructure โ€œis particularly egregious because it is a direct consequence of the federal governmentโ€™s failure to honor promises and treaties made to Tribes across this land.โ€22 Although raised at the September hearing, no federal legislative responses appear to be in sight for the time being.

The Committee is leaving the record open for two weeks after the Hearing for additional questions and comments about the bills. Ideally, the Committeeโ€™s next step would be to markup S. 2385, at which point Committee members would consider possible changes, before moving the bill to the Senate floor.23

Check out ourย previous blog postย on the Tribal Access to Clean Water Act of 2023, where we outlined how its passage would facilitate Tribal access to clean water. For additional information about the Act, including its partners and supporters, check outย the Universal Access to Clean Waterโ€™s page.

List of Resources

North American Indian regional losses 1850 thru 1890.

Could upcoming storms push some of #Coloradoโ€™s mountains to above-average #snowpack levels? Thereโ€™s a chance — The Summit Daily News

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map February 23, 2024 via the NRCS.

Click the link to read the article on The Summit Daily News website (Kit Geary). Here’s an excerpt:

February 23, 2024

Coloradoโ€™s statewide snowpack is currently at 96% of the 30-year average, and storms in the forecast could push it closer to 100%. While a majority of the snow is slated to arrive early next week, experts are predicting snowfall varying from 1 to 3 inches for many of Coloradoโ€™s ski resorts over the course of the next couple days…[Jim] Kalina said a storm system moving in early next week is expected to bring favorable conditions to those looking to hit the ski slopes.

The Colorado Headwaters Basin โ€” including the northern and central mountain regions as well as parts of the Western Slope โ€” is currently at 97% of the 30-year median. In terms of whether or not it will push the Colorado Headwaters Basin up to 100% snowpack, Kalina said โ€œIt looks like a pretty good storm, so it could bump it up a little bitย to be in that kind in of range.โ€

…the Yampa-White-Little Snake River Basin, which is currently at 105% of the 30-year median for snowpack…The USDA National Resources Conservation Service reported thatย The Colorado Headwaters Basinย generally reaches its snowpack peak around April 12, and the Yampa-White-Little Snake River Basin generally reaches its snowpack peak around April 7.

#Drought news February 22, 2024: Half an inch to locally 2 inches of precipitation fell this week over the #Colorado mountains into adjacent #Wyoming, and over western Wyoming

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

An atmospheric river of Pacific storm systems slammed parts of the West Coast with heavy precipitation during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (February 14-20). The weather systems dried out as they crossed the western mountains, then produced anemic precipitation amounts east of the Rockies. Parts of the Midwest and Northeast received limited precipitation amounts from passing cold fronts, and heavier rain fell along the Texas coast and across Florida from another frontal system, but much of the country east of the Rockies, as well as the southwestern U.S., received little to no precipitation. The weather systems distorted the upper-level circulation over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS), which otherwise consisted of a high-pressure ridge over western North America and a low-pressure trough over the east. The end result of this distortion was a temperature anomaly pattern that consisted of warmer-than-normal weekly temperatures in the Upper Midwest and parts of the interior West, and below-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, Rockies, and southern tier states, with near-normal temperatures elsewhere. An upper-level ridge over the Caribbean brought generally dry and warmer-than-normal weather to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, while ridges also kept Alaska mostly drier and warmer than normal and Hawaii drier than normal this week. Drought or abnormal dryness expanded or intensified this week in parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, Rio Grande Valley, eastern North Carolina, and much of Hawaii. Drought or abnormal dryness contracted or reduced in intensity in parts of the Four Corners states and Lower Mississippi Valley…

High Plains

Half an inch to locally 2 inches of precipitation fell this week over the Colorado mountains into adjacent Wyoming, and over western Wyoming. A band of precipitation extended across South Dakota, with locally up to half an inch falling. Otherwise, the High Plains region received little to no precipitation. D0 was expanded in the Dakotas, and D1 expanded in North Dakota, where the last 3 months have been dry and the lack of snow cover has exposed bare ground. D0 and D1 were adjusted in north central and southwest Colorado where recent precipitation resulted in local improvements and continued dryness caused local expansion. D2 was introduced in north central and northeastern Wyoming…

Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending February 20, 2024.

West

Five inches or more of precipitation fell along the California coast, across much of northern California, and in southwestern coastal Oregon, with 2 inches or more inland to the Sierra Nevada, Oregon Cascade mountain range, and over southwestern coastal Washington. Half an inch to an inch of precipitation fell across southern parts of the Pacific Northwest inland to the Rockies and a few areas to the north, with up to 2 inches falling from the Great Salt Lake area to Yellowstone National Park. Another area of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation occurred over the Colorado Rockies into adjacent Wyoming. Parts of California have received over 10 inches of precipitation during February and the Sierra Nevada range has received 1 to 3 feet of new snow since the end of January. But even with a wet February, much of the Sierra Nevada still has a below-normal snowpack. As of February 16, the northern Sierra snow water content (SWE) was 83% of normal, the central Sierra SWE was 74% of normal, and the southern Sierra SWE was 72% of normal. So, the D0 along the California-Nevada border was left unchanged.

While this week was dry across New Mexico, precipitation from the last 2 weeks to 3 months prompted the elimination of the D4 in southwestern New Mexico and the northwest D2, and contraction of the D3 in north central and D2 in southwestern parts of the state.

In northern parts of the West, precipitation for the water year to date (October 1, 2023-February 18, 2024) has been largely below normal and the winter snowpack is significantly below normal. Parts of the northern Rockies have record low SWE values, according to SNOTEL data. D0 expanded in parts of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington; spots of severe drought (D2) were added in north central and northeast Wyoming; and D2 was expanded and new D3 added in parts of Montana, especially the western and southern mountains, where the last 3 to 4 months have been dry and SWE values are record low…

South

Half an inch or more of precipitation fell across parts of the Texas coast, and there were a few areas of up to half an inch of precipitation in Arkansas and Tennessee, but otherwise the South region received no precipitation this week. D0 and D1 were expanded in west Texas along the Rio Grande Valley to reflect dry conditions over the last 7 days to 3 months, low streams, drying soils, and stressed vegetation indicated by satellite. D0 was contracted in South Texas and D1 contracted slightly in central Texas (Bell County). No change was made in Oklahoma, where reservoir levels remain historically low. A reassessment of conditions resulted in the removal of the D3 (extreme drought) and trimming of D2 in northwest Mississippi, trimming of D0-D1 in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, and trimming of D0 in Tennessee. Precipitation is near to above normal in these areas for the last 1 to 4 months, streamflow is near to above normal, and surface soil moisture has been recharged. In Louisiana, stock ponds mostly refilled. The remaining D0-D2 is sufficient to reflect the longer-term dryness which shows up most severely at the 6- to 12-month time scales…

Looking Ahead

In the two days since the Tuesday valid time of this USDM, Pacific moisture continued to move across parts of the West, with little precipitation falling east of the Rockies. For February 22-27, one weather system will move across the eastern CONUS, while another moves into the West by the end of the period. The first is forecast to drop 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians northward to the southern Great Lakes and central Appalachians, with half of an inch or less over the Northeast and even less over the Southeast. The second is expected to bring an inch or more of precipitation to the central and northern Rockies, coastal ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and Sierra Nevada, with up to 3 or 4 inches in the Washington Cascades. Other areas of the West are forecast to receive less than half an inch of precipitation, with little to no precipitation over the Southwest and to the lee of the Cascades in Washington. For the Great Plains to Mississippi Valley, little to no precipitation is predicted. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal, with the warmest anomalies across the Plains and Mississippi Valley due to upper-level ridging.

For much of the next 2 weeks, the atmospheric circulation is expected to consist of an upper-level trough over the western CONUS and a ridge over the eastern two-thirds of the country, with Pacific weather systems migrating through the trough/ridge pattern. The Climate Prediction Centerโ€™s (CPC) 6-10 Day Outlook (valid February 27-March 2) and 8-14 Day Outlook (valid February 29-March 6) favor a fairly stable pattern of warmer-than-normal temperatures from the Plains to East Coast and cooler-than-normal temperatures over the West and Alaska. The outlook is for above-normal precipitation over much of the CONUS, especially along the West Coast and Great Lakes, with odds favoring near to below-normal precipitation across the Plains and over most of Alaska.

US Drought Monitor one week change map ending February 20, 2024.

#Colorado mountain #snowpack in 2024 so far: decent, fine, ok — @ColoradoClimate Blog

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Climate Center blog (Russ Schumacher):

February 18, 2024

We spend a lot of time thinking about snow in our mountains, because Colorado is a headwaters state, and the water stored in that snowpack ends up serving ecosystems, farms, and millions of people not just in Colorado but in all directions. As we progress toward the end of February, the overall picture of Coloradoโ€™s mountain snowpack comes into much clearer focus. As of February 20th, the snow water equivalent (SWE) in Coloradoโ€™s mountains, as measured atย SNOTELย stations, was 97% of the median value for this day, compared to the 1991-2020 period. The northern mountains were a little bit above average (for example, the Yampa-White basin was at 104% of average), and the southern mountains a bit below (88% of median for the mountain areas feeding the Rio Grande river).

Snow Water Equivalent percent of the 1991-2020 median at Colorado SNOTEL stations, including values aggregated over the major river basins. Obtained from the USDA NRCS Interactive Map.

The state of the snowpack at this point in the winter can be characterized as pretty ok. Certainly much better than some of the drought years over recent decades, but also nowhere near the huge snows that fell last year across Colorado. (At this time last year, we were sitting at about 120% of average statewide.)

Colorado snowpack basin-filled map February 12, 2024 via the NRCS.

The snow accumulation season started quite slow: most locations were lagging well behind the average snowpack, with a few sites near record lows, in early January. But then aย major storm cycle in mid-Januaryย gave a huge boost to the snowpack, bringing it back within shouting distance of the average. February has been a more typical month in the mountains, with a steady string of storms, some hitting the northern ranges and others benefiting the south. That brings us to the decent position weโ€™re in now: not amazing, but not too bad either.

Time series of snow water equivalent for the state of Colorado. Water year 2024 (the current year) is shown by the black line, with the 1991-2020 median in the green line, the median peak shown by the โ€œxโ€, and the historical range shown by the color shading. From the USDA NRCS Colorado Snow Survey.

How much do the current conditions tell us about where weโ€™ll end up?

It turns out that for the statewide average, the snowpack value on February 20th correlates very strongly with the eventual peak, as shown in the graph below. (The correlation coefficient is 0.85, for those familiar with that metric.) In past years when the snowpack was similar in late February to where it is this year, the eventual peak tended to be a little below average. Only one year when the February snowpack was similar to this year did the seasonal peak end up well above average (1998โ€ฆmore on that in a second.) Thereโ€™s still about a month and a half until the typical peak (a little less in the south, more in the north), meaning thereโ€™s still time for things to change. In a typical year, a whole lot of snow falls between late February and mid-April! But itโ€™s also uncommon for a huge change in the overall seasonal picture after this time in the winter.

Comparison of Colorado statewide SWE on February 20 (on the horizontal axis) with the water year peak SWE (on the vertical axis), in inches. The median peak is shown by the dashed line at 17โ€ณ. This yearโ€™s value is shown by the hashmark on the horizontal axis, with question marks indicating where this year could potentially end up. A few past years are highlighted. The correlation between the February 20 and peak values is 0.85. Data from 1987-2024, obtained from USDA NRCS.

So, what should we expect for the rest of the winter and spring? Although snowpack is just a bit below average, the water supply forecasts for the Upper Colorado River Basin look even lower. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Centerโ€™s mid-February update projected that April-July streamflow into Blue Mesa Reservoir along the Gunnison River will be 88% of average. For this reservoirโ€”Coloradoโ€™s largestโ€”that would be a decent outcome. However, the projected flow into Lake Powell is only 77% of average. Lake Powell rose above its historic lows after the big snows last year, but isย still far below average levelsย (let alone being filled.)ย 

“New plot using the nClimGrid data, which is a better source than PRISM for long-term trends. Of course, the combined reservoir contents increase from last year, but the increase is less than 2011 and looks puny compared to the โ€˜holeโ€™ in the reservoirs. The blue Loess lines subtly change. Last year those lines ended pointing downwards. This year they end flat-ish. 2023 temps were still above the 20th century average, although close. Another interesting aspect is that the 20C Mean and 21C Mean lines on the individual plots really donโ€™t change much. Finally, the 2023 Natural Flows are almost exactly equal to 2019. (17.678 maf vs 17.672 maf). For all the hoopla about how this was record-setting year, the fact is that this year was significantly less than 2011 (20.159 maf) and no different than 2019” — Brad Udall

There are a couple of wild cards to consider. One is that we remain in El Niรฑo conditions, which tends to increase the odds of a wet and snowy spring (see Figure 2.12 here). Recall the reference above to 1998, when snowpack that was just ok in February ended up well above average by late April. That was a strong El Niรฑo similar to this year. The CPC monthly outlook for March does tilt toward wetter-than-average conditions, so that is a possible reason for hope.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center monthly outlook for precipitation in March 2024. From https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

On the flip side, the long-term trend toward warm springs and earlier melts in the mountains continues as the climate warms, which could alter the eventual water supply as well. As pointed outย in this post, the biggest reason for errors in streamflow forecasts is the fact that we donโ€™t know whatโ€™s going to happen with the weather over the next couple months! So, while history and these outlooks give some useful hints, as usual we will just need to wait and see what happens.

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map February 20, 2024 via the NRCS.

Coloradans offer to cut water use in exchange for $8.7 million — @BigPivots #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Water feature along Puebloโ€™s River Walk. Photo/Allen Best

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Shannon Mullane):

February 18, 2024

Coloradans gunning to join this yearโ€™s effort to save water in the Colorado River Basin could help conserve up to 17,000 acre-feet of water โ€” much more than the 2,500 acre-feet saved in 2023 โ€” and receive about $8.7 million in return.

The voluntary, multistate program pays water users to temporarily use less water. State and federal officials relaunched the effort, called the System Conservation Pilot Program, in 2023 in response to federal calls to cut back on water use in the drought-stressed river basin. After a stumbling relaunch in 2023, this yearโ€™s program is moving forward with more applications, more potential water savings and more money for participants.

โ€œThe changes this year โ€” it was just much more transparent,โ€ said Greg Vlaming, a consultant who helped nine growers apply to the program. โ€œThe application process was simple and easy. It took me less than 15 minutes per application.โ€

The conservation program was initially piloted from 2015 to 2018. In 2023, officials relaunched it with $125 million in federal funding as a way to cut back on water use in response to a looming water supply crisis in the Colorado River Basin. The basin supplies water for 40 million people across the western U.S., 30 Native American tribes and northern Mexico.

Interest in the program has grown steadily. During the four-year pilot, about 15 to 45 people applied each year. In 2023, the program received more than 80 applicants.

But program costs have grown as well, in part because the programโ€™s managers have boosted reimbursement rates to keep up with rising crop prices, according to the Upper Colorado River Commission, which oversees the program.

Last year, the four Upper Basin states โ€” Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming โ€” spent nearly $16.1 million in federal funding to conserve about 37,810 acre-feet of water. During the four-year pilot, the program spent half that amount, about $8.5 million, to conserve more water, about 47,000 acre-feet.

One acre-foot supports about two families of four to five people for one year.

This yearโ€™s application period closed in December with 124 applications, according to the Upper Colorado River Commission. Of those, Colorado water users submitted 56; Utah, 32; New Mexico, one; and Wyoming, 35.

The river commission, which includes representatives from the federal government and each of the Upper Basin states, is scheduled to consider the applications March 4.

Then, once a federal review is complete and all project details are finalized, applicants have the final say about whether they will participate. The commission aims to launch the conservation projects in April, said Executive Director Chuck Cullom.

In Colorado, most of the applications come from farmers and ranchers who proposed cutting their water use by temporarily fallowing fields, or by switching to crops that use less water or can better withstand drought. About 20 proposals aim to save enough water to warrant $100,000 or more in compensation per project.

The Ute Mountain Ute tribe of southwestern Colorado has offered to use crops that require less water and will, if the tribeโ€™s offer is accepted, get $1.1 million in return. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

The Ute Mountain Ute Farm and Ranch in southwestern Colorado proposed the stateโ€™s biggest project this year. If approved, the enterprise will use crops that require less water and will fallow nearly 900 acres of land for an estimated 2,172 acre-feet of water savings. It would receive $1.1 million in return.

David Harold, owner of the Tuxedo Corn Company in Olathe, proposed saving 600 acre-feet of water. In return, heโ€™d get about $305,000, roughly equivalent to the cost of a nice tractor, he said.

The program asks farmers to cut down their water use โ€” buy-and-dry under a different name โ€” but itโ€™s also a way to experiment, he said. How can he respond to an uncertain water supply with as little impact to the local economy as possible and still survive as a farmer?

Harvesting a Thinopyrum intermedium (Kernza) breeding nursery at The Land Institute By Dehaan – Scott Bontz, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5181663
Sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) has amazing properties and was largely ignored during the post war years of industrial agriculture. Not surprisingly, itโ€™s making a bit of a comeback. Photo credit: Soil Association

Harold chose not to fallow โ€” not growing crops means fewer hands to help with production and that impacts the local economy. Instead, he decided to turn off irrigation when it was hottest and least efficient, and to grow more drought resistant crops, like Kernza and sainfoin.

The payment was enticing, but in the long term not enough to offset all of the uncertainties that farmers face, he said. The conservation programโ€™s reimbursement rate could change, or the program could end. There was a disaster with corn earworm in the sweet corn industry last season. State regulations, water supplies and labor costs change.

โ€œThe list goes on and on and on of why I should be doing everything I can to diversify or maneuver. Be agile. Be thoughtful,โ€ Harold said. โ€œThe past will not be the future; what my dad did is not likely whatโ€™s going to work for me. Itโ€™s kind of daunting out there.โ€

Alan Ward stands at the Ewing Ditch headgate.

Pueblo Water was the only municipal water provider to apply. The Front Range utility normally takes about 943 acre-feet of water from the Ewing Placer Ditch in the Colorado River Basin and diverts it into the Arkansas River Basin for homes and gardens around Pueblo. If accepted, it will leave all of that water in the Colorado River Basin in return for up to $479,987.

โ€œThe primary purpose weโ€™re doing it is just because we think, for this particular year, the waterโ€™s going to be more valuable in the System Conservation Pilot Project than itโ€™s going to be on the Arkansas River,โ€ said Alan Ward, division manager of water resources for Pueblo Water. โ€œI donโ€™t think we have plans to dedicate it (the funding) to any specific purpose. Essentially what it does is it subsidizes the cost of water for our customers.โ€

In 2023, when participants negotiated their own reimbursement rates, compensation for the top five applicants ranged from about $70,000 to $195,000 per project, according to the Colorado Water Conservation Board.

In response to participant feedback, officials this year switched to a fixed-rate structure based on a market analysis by the federal and state governments.

Corn harvest was underway on this farm between Montrose and Delta in September 2019. Photo/Allen Best

Colorado participants will receive $509 per acre-foot of saved water, the highest compensation rate of the four Upper Basin states. New Mexico producers will receive $300, while those in Utah and Wyoming will receive $506 and $492, respectively. Reimbursement rates will vary for other projects, like leaving water storage in reservoirs, or municipal and industrial water savings.

โ€œIโ€™m not complaining about it,โ€ Vlaming said. โ€œBut when I say $509 per acre-foot to guys, theyโ€™re like, โ€˜Where do I sign?โ€™ Some of these guys are going to get paid quite well.โ€

For water users, negotiating their own rates was one of several problems with last yearโ€™s program, alongside a short application period and unclear communication about how to apply and how water savings were calculated.

The application process was much more streamlined this year because officials learned from the process in 2023, said Cullom, the Upper Colorado River Commission executive director.

โ€œThe process โ€” which included pre-application interviews and discussions between the applicant and the states and the consultants โ€” helped strengthen all the applications,โ€ he said. โ€œI think we improved the process. Thatโ€™s some feedback weโ€™ve heard.โ€

[…]

This story was published by Fresh Water News, a service of Water Education Colorado.

Upper Colorado River Basin map via the Upper Colorado River Commission.

Auction of #ColoradoRiver water nets $4.7 million: Bidders paid an average of $74,600 per acre-foot — @AspenJournalism #SouthPlatteRiver #COriver #aridification

Auctioneer Scott Shuman, right, with Hall and Hall, helped sell 90 units of Colorado-Big Thompson Project water on Wednesday. Bidders had to be cleared to participate in the auction by the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, which manages and delivers the water to cities and farms on the Front Range. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

February 16, 2024

Longmont dairy farmer Jim Docheff has been in the dairy business for all of his 88 years, and his son Joe grows the corn and alfalfa for the dairy cows on the farm east of the city. On Wednesday, Docheff acquired six units of Colorado River water to use on his family farm by outbidding other would-be buyers in a water auction.

โ€œI came with the idea of buying up to 10 units, but I only got so many dollars to spend,โ€ Docheff said.

Colorado-Big Thompson Project map. Courtesy of Northern Water.

Docheff was one of 42 registered bidders who gathered at Barn A of the Boulder County Fairgrounds for a chance to buy some of the 90 units for sale of Colorado-Big Thompson Project water. The transmountain diversion project, built by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in the 1940s, takes water from the headwaters of the Colorado River in Grand County and transports it via a system of tunnels, pipes and canals to farms and cities in northeastern Colorado.

The first bid for one unit of C-BT water hit a high mark of $72,000, but prices soon stabilized at around $46,000 per unit. After a bidder won the round, they said how many units they wanted to buy, with some people scooping up two, five or 10 units. A buyerโ€™s premium of 10% was added to the high bid to get the total purchase price, which averaged $52,488 per unit.

After all 90 units had a high bid, auctioneer Scott Shuman with auction company Hall and Hall offered the crowd a last chance to outbid their neighbors and reopen bidding on any of the units, or to buy the entire 90 shares.

โ€œIf you didnโ€™t get as much water as you thought you would, hereโ€™s your opportunity to add something to it,โ€ he said. โ€œI do not want to say โ€˜soldโ€™ and then have anybody meet me in the parking lot saying โ€˜I really wanted to get a couple of those units; I would have given you more for it.โ€™โ€

But no bidders raised their hands.

โ€œAll right, happy Valentineโ€™s Day, ladies and gentlemen, we sold all the water units,โ€ Shuman told the crowd. โ€œGive yourselves a hand, give the Yoakum family a hand.โ€

When all was said and done, the auction netted a total sale price of about $4.7 million for about 63 acre-feet of water. The seller was longtime Longmont farmer Carol Oswald Yoakum.

Credit: Laurine Lassalle/Aspen Journalism

C-BT water regulated

Itโ€™s common for shares of C-BT water to change hands, but a large-scale sale by auction like the one held on Wednesday is rare. The last one was in 2019.

But not just anyone can own C-BT water. It is highly regulated and there are rules about its use. To participate in the auction, would-be buyers had to meet criteria set by the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, which manages and delivers the water to users. Northern does not allow more than three acre-feet of C-BT water per irrigated acre, and itโ€™s best if a bidder is an existing water user like an irrigator or municipality within Northernโ€™s delivery area who already has water from a different source since C-BT water is only meant to be used as a supplemental supply. And out-of-state investors looking to speculate get turned down immediately.

First water through the Adams Tunnel. Photo credit Northern Water.

โ€œIf they donโ€™t have a farm, if they donโ€™t have a beneficial need for the water, then thereโ€™s a very high probability that (Northern) would not approve a contract for them,โ€ said Sherri Rasmussen, contracts manager with Northern Water. โ€œIโ€™ve had calls from New York people wanting to buy C-BT and my first question is: What do you want C-BT for? And theyโ€™re like, โ€˜Well, for investment, what do you think?โ€™ And itโ€™s like no, you donโ€™t qualify.โ€

The C-BT project provides supplemental water to farms and cities along the northern Front Range and eastward along the South Platte River. Northern delivers this water to 33 municipalities and 120 ditch, reservoir and irrigation companies, according to its website. The project diverts about 200,000 acre-feet a year from the Colorado River basin.

Each year in April, Northern Waterโ€™s board determines the amount of water that users will get for each unit depending on whether itโ€™s a drought year and how much water is available. The board most commonly settles on 7/10 of an acre-foot. That means Wednesdayโ€™s buyers paid an average of $74,600 per acre foot to own the water in perpetuity. Thatโ€™s up from an average of $36,300 per acre-foot buyers were paying for C-BT water in 2015, according to WestWater Research, a water market research firm.

According to Adam Jokerst, a regional director with WestWater, C-BT unit prices are simply a function of supply and demand.

โ€œPopulation growth largely drives water prices on the Front Range and in areas with the fastest population growth in the northern Front Range, thatโ€™s where we see the highest water prices,โ€ he said.

But not all the buyers Wednesday were cities looking to transfer water from agriculture to support their continued growth. According to Shuman, of the 15 buyers, six were farmers; four were dairies; two were developers; two were municipalities and one was a farm foundation.

According to Jeff Stahla, public information officer for Northern Water, dairy farming in the district has been growing in recent years.

โ€œThatโ€™s one of the takeaways from today: A lot of this water is staying in agriculture,โ€ he said.

Another water auction is set to take place on Feb. 28 in Ault, east of Fort Collins. The Carlson Family Trust will sell 96 units of C-BT water and 154 acres of land.

This story ran in the Feb. 18 edition of The Aspen Times, the Vail DailySummit DailySkyHi News.

Ute Water kicks in $2 million for Shoshone water rights purchase — The #GrandJunction Daily Sentinel #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridfication

Shoshone Hydroelectric Plant back in the days before I-70 via Aspen Journalism

Click the link to read the article on The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel website (Dennis Webb). Here’s an excerpt:

February 16, 2024

A regional effort to purchase major Colorado River water rights in Glenwood Canyon gained major Western Slope support this week when the Ute Water Conservancy District pitched in $2 million toward the cause. The Mesa County entityโ€™s board unanimously approved the contribution on Wednesday. An effort being led by the Colorado River District isย seeking to buy water rights associated with the Shoshone hydroelectric power plantย in Glenwood Canyon from Xcel Energy for $98.5 million, plus $500,000 to cover Xcelโ€™s transaction costs. The rights include a right to flows of 1,250 cubic feet per second that dates back to 1902, along with a second, 158-cfs right that was appropriated in 1929…

The purchase is intended to ensure the flows continue even if the plant ever closes, through reaching an agreement with the state and pursuing a water court decree that would change the rights so they are not just for hydropower production but are instream flow rights would also ensure the flows continue.

The river district has committed $20 million itself for the purchase, and the Colorado Water Conservation Board recently supported pitching in $20 million in state funds, contingent on approval by the state legislature. The river district also has said it hopes to secure $49 million in federal funding and $10 million from West Slope governments and water entities.

2024 #COleg: Colorado lawmakers gear up to create new protections for unshielded wetlands and streams — Fresh Water News

Blanca Wetlands, Colorado BLM-managed ACEC Blanca Wetlands is a network of lakes, ponds, marshes and wet meadows designated for its recreation and wetland values. The BLM Colorado and its partners have made strides in preserving, restoring and managing the area to provide rich and diverse habitats for wildlife and the public. To visit or get more information, see: http://www.blm.gov/co/st/en/fo/slvfo/blanca_wetlands.html. By Bureau of Land Management – Blanca Wetlands Area of Critical Environmental Concern, Colorado, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=42089248

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Jerd Smith):

February 14, 2024

Whatโ€™s the best way to protect hundreds of acres of wetlands and streams in Colorado, in the absence of federal rules that once did that work? Itโ€™s one of the biggest water issues facing state lawmakers this year.

But as the legislative session kicks into high gear, there is no consensus yet on how to proceed.

Last week, Republican Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, introduced Senate Bill 24-127 as a first stab at figuring it out. 

At issue is how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency now defines so-called Waters of the United States, or WOTUS, which determines which waterways and wetlands are protected under the federal Clean Water Act. The definition has been heavily litigated in the nationโ€™s lower courts since the 1980s and has changed dramatically under different presidential administrations.

In May, in Sackett v. EPA the U.S. Supreme Court decided, among other things, that the WOTUS definition that included wetlands adjacent to streams, was too broad.

In its ruling, the court said only those wetlands with a direct surface connection to a stream or permanent body of water, for instance, should be protected.

The courtโ€™s decision in the WOTUS case means it will now be up to the state to handle that regulation โ€” including permitting โ€” and enforcement.

Last year limited temporary emergency protections were put in place to give the state time to create a new program.

Water experts said the Sackett decision and the new Colorado permitting program will have far-ranging implications for the environment, as well as agriculture, construction and mining, all major parts of Coloradoโ€™s economy.

The Sackett decision may have more impact in semi-arid Western states, where streams donโ€™t run year-round and wetlands often donโ€™t have a direct surface connection to a stream.

The U.S. Geological Survey, for instance, estimates 44% of Coloradoโ€™s streams are intermittent, meaning they are sometimes dry, and 24% are ephemeral, meaning they can be dry for months or years and appear only after extraordinary rain or snow. Just 32% of Colorado streams are classified as being perennial, meaning they flow year-round.

Kirkmeyerโ€™s bill would create a new, nine-member commission appointed by the governor that would be housed in the Colorado Department of Natural Resources. The commission would oversee a staff responsible for issuing permits regulating how any activity impacting nearby streams and wetlands, such as road building, home construction and mining, would be conducted to minimize and repair any disturbances the activity caused. It would also sharply limit the kinds of streams and wetlands that could be protected, in keeping with the narrow scope enshrined in law by the U.S. Supreme Court in its Sackett v. EPA decision, Kirkmeyer said.

โ€œThese waters are important to all of us,โ€ the Brighton lawmaker said. 

Wetlands, which are havens of biodiversity, offer priceless ecological benefits. As wetlands are lost to development nationwide, critics of the dam project worry about its local impact. (Photo Credit: John Fielder via Writers on the Range)

The bill is supported by the Colorado Livestock Association, Weld County and the mining giant Freeport-McMoRan. Conservation Colorado and the Sierra Club, and liberal environmental nonprofits, oppose the measure.

Kirkmeyer  said she proposed placing the program in the Department of Natural Resources, in part, because the Colorado Department of Public Health Environmentโ€™s Water Quality Control Division has been plagued with huge backlogs in processing permits in other programs it oversees.

Her proposal, however, may face an uphill battle in the Democratically controlled legislature. There are also questions about what the stateโ€™s new regulatory burden will mean in terms of cost.

A broad-based working group convened last year by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment is still analyzing options on how best to address the regulatory gap, and has been briefing lawmakers on possible options. Those options, however, would likely give the regulating job to the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment and would likely seek to cover a broader class of streams and wetlands than Senate Bill 127 envisions, according to Alex Funk, a member of the working group who is also director of water resources and senior counsel at the Teddy Roosevelt Conservation Partnership.

Iron Fen. Photo credit from report “A Preliminary Evaluation of Seasonal Water Levels Necessary to Sustain Mount Emmons Fen: Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forests,” David J. Cooper, Ph.D, December 2003.

Funk said he wants to see a bill that is housed within the health department and which offers broader protection for uniquely Colorado waters, such as fens, a kind of high-altitude bog, as well as playa lakes, small shallow pools found on the high plains.

โ€œThere is a real opportunity (this session) for Colorado to provide some clarity once and for all with a program that is inclusive of all stakeholders,โ€ Funk said.

โ€œThe federal program has been a tennis ball,โ€ he said, referring to the programโ€™s long history of lawsuits over shifting definitions of what constitutes protected wetlands and streams.

 โ€œEveryone has agreed that hasnโ€™t worked well. But I think Colorado can get this right.โ€

Confronting the #Wildfire Crisis — USFS

Click the link to read the release on the USFS website:

In January 2022, the Forest Service launched a robust, 10-year strategy to address the wildfire crisis in the places where it poses the most immediate threats to communities. The strategy, called โ€œConfronting the Wildfire Crisis: A Strategy for Protecting Communities and Improving Resilience in Americaโ€™s Forests,โ€ (leer en espaรฑol) combines a historic investment of congressional funding with years of scientific research and planning into a national effort that will dramatically increase the scale and pace of forest health treatments over the next decade. Through the strategy, the agency will work with states, Tribes and other partners to addresses wildfire risks to critical infrastructure, protect communities, and make forests more resilient.

In early 2023, the USDA Forest Service added 11 additional landscapes. This announcement followed a year of progress in collaborating with partners across 10 initial landscapes to address wildfire risk to infrastructure and communities.

Year 3 โ€“ 2024 โ€“ nearly $500 million investment expands critical work to reduce wildfire risk.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced on February 20, 2024 that the United States Department of Agriculture is investing nearly $500 million to expand work on the USDA Forest Service’s Wildfire Crisis Strategy to reduce wildfire risk to communities, critical infrastructure and natural resources from the nationโ€™s wildfire crisis.

Approximately $400 million of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funds will be allocated to ongoing efforts on the 21 priority landscapes across the West. This work is beginning to reduce wildfire risk for some 550 communities, 2,500 miles of power lines and 1,800 watersheds.

An additional $100 million will be allocated through a collaborative process with tribes, communities, and partners as part of new agency-established program โ€“ the Collaborative Wildfire Risk Reduction Program. Inspired by past examples and the success of programs such as the Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program, the new Collaborative Wildfire Risk Reduction Program expands work in high-risk wildfire areas outside the 21 priority landscapes.

These landscapes and efforts to expand the work under the Wildfire Crisis Strategy are determined using scientific research and analysis that considers the likelihood that an ignition could expose homes, communities, infrastructure, and natural resources to wildfire.

In 2023, the Forest Service and a wide-range of partners, communities, and tribes treated more than 4.3 million acres of hazardous fuels, including nearly two million acres of prescribed burning, on National Forest System lands across the nation – both are record highs in the agencyโ€™s 119-year history and over a million acres more accomplished than the previous year.

Credit: USFS

The #BlueRiver Integrated Water Management Plan is live — Blue River Watershed Group #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Map of the Blue River drainage basin in Colorado, USA. Made using USGS data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=69327693

Click the link to go to the Blue River Watershed Group website to access the plan:

BRWG has partnered with Trout Unlimited to create an Integrated Water Management Plan (IWMP) for the Blue River Watershed,ย that will provide a comprehensive roadmap for future water use, restoration projects, and other solutions to the issues that currently threaten the health of the watershed. The IWMP will guide the strategic direction of BRWG for the next several years through ongoing scientific research and resource evaluation, planning of restoration projects and acquiring funds to sustain those projects, implementationย of projects that have secured fundingย as well as evaluating and maintaining completed projects.

‘A finite supply’: Ex-landowner sells 90 shares of Colorado-Big Thompson water at auction — The #FortCollins Coloradoan #ColoradoRiver #SouthPlatteRiver #COriver #aridification

Colorado-Big Thompson Project map. Courtesy of Northern Water.

Click the link to read the article on the Fort Collins Coloradoan website (Pat Ferrier). Here’s an excerpt:

February 14, 2024

Through the years, [Carol Oswald] Yoakum acquired 900 acres of farmland north of Longmont…A couple hundred acres went for a 20-home subdivision, 575 acres were put into a conservation easement with Boulder County so the views [of Long’s Peak] she lived with for 57 years would always be protected. She retained 175 acres…Now 91, Yoakum sold Meadow Green Farm in March 2023. On Wednesday, the last links to the property โ€” 90 shares of Colorado-Big Thompson water โ€” were auctioned at Boulder County Fairgrounds in Longmont. Fifteen buyers paid an average of $52,481 per share, or $4.72 million, making the water that once nourished the farm as valuable as the land itself.

The relatively rare water auction within Northern Water boundaries was the first of two this month that will ultimately see 186 shares of Colorado-Big Thompson water transition to new hands and new uses. On Wednesday, Yoakum’s 90 shares went to ditch companies, developers, farmers, ranchers and one municipality that will use it to add to their water holdings, supply water to new subdivisions and irrigate some farmland…Michael Markel of Markel Homes bought five shares at $49,500 each (including a 10% seller’s fee that goes to the auction house) to help provide water to homes in a 420-unit subdivision in Lafayette. “This will just cover a fraction” of the project, Markel said. Although the price per share opened at a high of $72,000, most shares sold for $46,000, plus seller’s fee. Water was sold in one to five units but could be combined for more shares. The largest share of water, 12 units, sold for $46,000 per share plus fees…Sterling Zehnder, who farms about 110 acres near Kersey, bought four shares at $53,000 each for irrigation.

On Feb. 28, the Carlson Family Trust will auction its 154-acre family farm in Eaton and 96 shares of Colorado-Big Thompson water. Markel said he may be among the bidders at that sale, too.

To buy Colorado-Big Thompson water, which is owned by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and jointly operated and managed by Northern Water, a buyer has to represent a municipality or already own some shares; the water has to be used within district boundaries; and it can’t be the sole source of water. “C-BT is intended to supplement” an existing water supply, said Jeff Stahla, spokesperson for Northern Water.

#Snowpack news February 20, 2024

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map February 20, 2024 via the NRCS.
Colorado snowpack basin-filled map February 20, 2024 via the NRCS.

The Federal Regulatory Commission Deny Permits for Pumped Storage Hydroelectric Projects on Navajo Land, Citing Lack of Consultation With Tribes — Inside Climate News

The Colorado River from Navajo Bridge below Leeโ€™s Ferry and Glen Canyon Dam. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Noel Lyn Smith,ย Wyatt Myskow):

February 17, 2024

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission announced a new policy requiring that any energy project seeking to build on tribal land must get the tribeโ€™s approval before it will permit the project.

Federal officials Thursday denied preliminary permits for multiple pumped storage hydroelectric projects proposed on the Navajo Nation that would have required vast sums of water from limited groundwater aquifers and the declining Colorado River, citing a lack of support from tribal communities. 

In the order, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission announced it was implementing a new policy requiring that any project proposed on all tribal land must gain the respective tribeโ€™s consent to be approved, a move that local tribes, opposed to the proposed hydroelectric projects, had been calling for. The decisions pave the way for increased tribal sovereignty in energy-related projects seeking federal approval across the country.

โ€œThis is a federal commission acknowledging tribal sovereignty,โ€ George Hardeen, a spokesman for the Navajo Nation presidentโ€™s office, said. โ€œIf a company wants to do business on the Navajo Nation, it, of course, needs to talk to and get the approval of the Navajo Nation. And in the eyes of FERC, that has not yet happened.โ€

The Navajo Nation opposed the preliminary permits for the projects through motions to intervene that were submitted by its Department of Justice in 2022 and 2023.

Future projects โ€œshould work closely with Tribal stakeholders prior to filing,โ€ to FERC, agency officials wrote in their decision. Before this new policy, the agency had โ€œapplied the general policy of granting permits even where issues were raised about potential project impacts without a distinction for projects on Tribal lands opposed by Tribes.โ€ 

The decision is the latest setback for the development of hydropower in the U.S. While many see electricity generated by turbines in dams as a key source of renewable energy, a growing body of scientific evidence has found that the reservoirs behind dams are a significant source of carbon emissionsโ€”particularly methane, a potent greenhouse gas thatโ€™s roughly 80 times more effective at warming the atmosphere than carbon dioxide over 20 years. Hydroelectric dams also block fish from traveling upstream to their spawning grounds, which studies have long shown interfere with their ability to reproduce. 

Hydropower dams have hadย major effects on riversย across the country, including the Colorado River and its tributaries, where four native fish species are now endangered. Such issues have led to theย removal of damsย along some other river systems.

Pumped hydroelectric generation illustrated. Graphic via The Mountain Town News

Pumped storage has been seen by some in the industry as a way to keep hydropower a relevant part of the renewable energy transition, as they donโ€™t always require a river or dam to function. However, environmental problems, and opposition, remain. The projects FERC denied had garnered widespread opposition from the Navajo Nation and Indigenous and environmental groups over the lack of consultation developers offered and the impacts they would have on cultural sites, endangered species and water resources in the area.

In its motion to FERC for a project on the western part of the Navajo Nation near Page, Arizona, the tribeโ€™s Department of Justice wrote that โ€œmeaningful consultationโ€ between the company and the tribal government, including chapter administrations and local communities, was โ€œunclear.โ€

The department also stated that the project might impact the tribeโ€™s water rights or its use of water from the Colorado River system.

โ€œThe Navajo Nationโ€™s interests would be directly affected by the outcome of this proceeding,โ€ the department wrote.

Graphic credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

Daryn Melvin, a Hopi Tribal member who works as the Grand Canyon manager with the Grand Canyon Trust, which opposed the projects, said the hydro projects are โ€œjust the latest in a number of developments that were threatening the area in places that are of particular importance to Native communities.โ€ The impacts of coal and uranium mining persist to this day, he said, and local tribes and environmental groups pushed to find new ways to protect the area, including reform in the FERC permitting process.

In particular, a proposal from Nature and People First to build three pumped storage hydropower projects across 40 linear miles on Black Mesa drew intense scrutiny. Project opponents say the developer never reached out to locals about the project and attempted to pit communities in the area against one another. Representatives of Nature and People First did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication.

Black Mesa, west of Chilchinbito, Arizona. By Doc Searls from Santa Barbara, USA – 2008_08_19_bos-lax_078Uploaded by Babbage, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10393831

Nature and People First states on its website that Chilchinbeto Chapter, where one of the projects on Black Mesa would be located, supported the proposal because it would create jobs and economic opportunities. The company filed resolutions to FERC from the Western Navajo Agency Council and the chapters of Tsโ€™ah Bii Kin and Oljato that supported the project.

How Pumped Storage Hydropower Works

Over a dozen hydro projects have been proposed in recent years on or near the Navajo Nation for pumped storageโ€”a nearly century-old technology experiencing a surge of interest as the U.S. looks for ways to store energy from renewable sources as it pivots away from fossil fuel-generated electricity. 

Pumped storage can help store electricity from wind and solar energy projects for when it is needed and serves as an alternative to utility-scale lithium-ion batteries to bank renewable energy.ย 

Graphic credit: Inside Climate News

The projects use two water reservoirs, one above the other. Water is pumped uphill to the higher reservoir at night when energy costs are low, then sent back down through electricity-generating turbines when energy demand peaks or renewable resources canโ€™t generate electricity, helping to ensure grid stability during system-stressing events like record-hot summers. 

But to work, they need certain geographic characteristics, namely a rapid change in elevation over a short distance, leading many of the projects to be proposed in the Mountain West. But they also need water, and a lot of it, which is something lacking in many arid Western communities. 

Thatโ€™s led to pushback across the region as rural residentslook to protect their limited ground- and surface water supplies from diversion to pumped storage projects and, potentially, further depletion.

Impacts to Local Water Supplies

If all of the proposed pumped storage projects near the Navajo Nation were built, it would require over 2 million acre feet of water. Thatโ€™s enough water for over 5 million homes in Arizona and about the same amount of water that federal officials are currently allowing the state to take from the Colorado River in recent drought conditions.ย 

If developed, the projects would further impact flows on the Colorado River and its tributaries, as well as the levels of local aquifers that serve tribal communities. The Hopi Tribe, for example, is completely reliant on the same groundwater sources some of these hydro projects would likely pull from.ย 

โ€œWater scarcity is a simple fact of our region,โ€ said Taylor McKinnon, the Southwest director for the Center for Biological Diversity, which opposed the projects. โ€œTheir failure to see that caused them to run headlong into the problem of aridity.โ€


The Coconino Aquifer. The fundamental law of the Navajo (Dine) people believes water to be one of the four sacred elements that was put forth by Diyin dineโ€™eโ€™ (Deities) as a source of life. Water is part of prayer in the Hozho ceremonies for healing. All human and all life on Nahasdzaan (Mother Earth) have a degree of water in their system. Water is precious to native people โ€“ it is life. Credit: Dineโ€™eโ€™ C.A.R.E.

The Black Mesa projects proposed pulling groundwater from the Coconino aquiferโ€”colloquially known as the C aquiferโ€”which provides the base flows for the Little Colorado River, McKinnon said. โ€œThat water comes out of the earth in Blue Springs, and it creates a river,โ€ he said, noting that the flow was critical to an endangered fish. โ€œThat river is where the last source population of humpback chub in the world live.โ€

Thursdayโ€™s ruling, for now, puts an end to seven of the proposed projects in the region that would have collectively required around 1.6 million acre feet of water. โ€œThis is an agency actually stepping forward and saying, โ€˜we have the authority to do the right thing and weโ€™re going to do the right thing,โ€™โ€ McKinnon said. โ€œWe applaud that.โ€

The projects have also received pushback from the Hopi Tribe, whose land is adjacent to the Navajo Nation. The projects on Black Mesa not only threatened water sources for the Hopi, but also endangered species and cultural resources, like ancestral trails and shrines, said Stewart B. Koyiyumptewa, tribal historic preservation officer for the tribe.

โ€œWe still have a vested interest in our cultural resources left by our ancestors throughout the landscape,โ€ Koyiyumptewa said.

FERC has a policy statement for consulting with federally recognized tribes that preexisted Thursdayโ€™s order. While the commission recognizes the government-to-government relationships the U.S. holds with sovereign tribes, how it notifies tribes about proposed projects is dependent on laws, like the National Historic Preservation Act.

For Koyiyumptewa, this leaves tribes cut off from key information about proposalsโ€”especially when projects are not on the tribeโ€™s land, but could impact it.

โ€œWe werenโ€™t given the opportunity to provide opposition,โ€ he said of the early process for the Black Mesa projects.

2024 Ogallala Aquifer Summit March 18-19, 2024: #Building Trust, Mobilizing Collaboration” — Irrigation Innovation Consortium

Click the link to go to the Irrigation Innovation Consortium website for all the inside skinny and register.

Ogallala Aquifer. Credit: Big Pivots

Cheatgrass and other stuff that gets my goat — Jonathan P. Thompson

Cattle grazing in southeastern Utah in early spring. I think I see some cheatgrass in there, but maybe not. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

๐Ÿฎ Cheatgrass Chronicles

โ€œToday the honey-colored hills that flank the northwestern mountains derive their hue not from the rich and useful bunchgrass and wheatgrass which once covered them, but from the inferior cheat which has replaced these native grasses. โ€ฆ The cause of the substitution is overgrazing. When the too-great herds and flocks chewed and trampled the hide off the foothills, something had to cover the raw eroding earth. Cheat did.โ€โ€”Aldo Leopold,ย Sand County Almanac

For a couple years when I was a teenager, my dad lived in a house near Lebanon, a tiny settlement about ten miles north of Cortez, Colorado.ย The front porch afforded an expansive view of much of the Montezuma Valley, a quilt of pastures and hayfields and residential development amid patches of sagebrush and piรฑon-juniper set against the backdrop of Ute Mountain and Mesa Verde.ย 

La Plata Mountains from the Great Sage Plain with historical Montezuma County apple orchard in the foreground.

On hot, dry summer afternoons I liked to sit on the porch and gaze upon the valley, waiting for the inevitable plume of smoke. It always started as a white-gray wisp wafting into the cloudless blue sky, and sometimes would quickly die down. More often than not, however, the wisp grew into a thick, billowing, dark cloud with glowing orange flames at its base. And then, maybe ten minutes later, the faint sound of sirens would ring out as the volunteer fire fighters raced to the scene hoping to save houses and barns from the expanding inferno. 

Almost every one of these fires was sparked intentionally โ€” a landowner burning their fields against better judgment. And the target of the blaze was almost always the same, an innocent-looking species that is so nasty and pernicious that it can drive folks to risk burning down their own property to get rid of it: cheatgrass, aka Bromus tectorum, a Eurasian annual that invaded North America in the 1800s and has since become one of the continentโ€™s most detested, ubiquitous, and stubborn invasive species. 

The news hook, unfortunately, is not the discovery of a foolproof method to eradicate cheatgrass (burning it doesnโ€™t work, by the way). Rather itโ€™s a new paper on cheatgrass that compiles a collection of scientific studies into a comprehensive, extensive yet digestible, volume: โ€œCheatgrass invasions: History, causes, consequences, and solutions,โ€ by Erik M. Molvar et al. and put out by the Western Watersheds Project.

Cheatgrassโ€™s invasion of North America echoed Euro-American settler-colonization. The first continentโ€™s earliest record of the grass was made in Pennsylvania in 1790. It popped up in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming in the 1800s, in the wake of mining rushes and subsequent influxes of cattle and sheep to feed the burgeoning settler population. Cheatgrass was carried westward by wagons and railroads where it quickly took over land disturbed by farming and, especially, livestock grazing. Sometimes livestock operators would burn sagebrush and then encourage cheatgrass to replace it since in early spring the green grass makes for nutritious forage. By early summer, though, itโ€™s unpalatable, and the dry seeds drive folks to arson.

By the 1930s cheatgrass, aided by a massive ground invasion of livestock grazing, had invaded much of the West. And further land disturbance in later decades facilitated the spread of the invasive species, which competes with and often displaces native bunch-grasses. In whatโ€™s known as the livestock-cheatgrass-fire cycle, grazing facilitates an initial cheatgrass invasion. The flammable grass then burns, taking out native shrubs such as sagebrush, leaving a cheatgrass mono-crop in their place. This destroys the sagebrush ecosystem and harms all the species that depend upon it, making cheatgrass โ€œone of the most significant ecological crises facing land managers in the arid West,โ€ according to the paper. Climate change is expected to make it worse.

Itโ€™s all rather depressing, to be honest. And even worse is that thereโ€™s no easy way to rid the West of this malignant grass. Various methods have been tried, from burning the stuff to chemical herbicides to amending the soil to even hand-pulling it. None have been successful in the long-term. Some researchers have suggested inoculating cheatgrass with fungi and bacterium, such as black-fingers-of-death. But they could have dire unintended effects. 

Yet itโ€™s not all hopeless. Reducing livestock grazing in areas that have yet to be overrun by cheatgrass has kept a full-invasion at bay, and ceasing grazing altogether in cheatgrass-dominant places has allowed native grasses to recover. Avoiding soil disturbance of any form and preserving the cryptobiotic crusts can help fend off new cheatgrass invasions. The authors of the paper sum it up nicely: 

โ€œThe key to combating weed invasions is to prevent the types of conditions and land uses that confer advantages to weed species over native plants, and to restore native plant associations that are resilient and resistant to future weed invasion.โ€

Dust, snow, and diminishing albedo, JONATHAN P. THOMPSON MAY 7, 2021

๐Ÿ  Random Real Estate Room ๐Ÿค‘ 

Year-end real estate market reports are rolling in and, generally, it looks like more of the same: Homes are getting more expensive and further out of reach of the average income earner. And relatively high interest rates donโ€™t seem to be dimming the trend, at least in most places. 

Take La Plata County in southwestern Colorado, home of Durango and of an alarming increase in home prices across the entirety of its 1,700 square miles over the last several years. In 2023, median sales prices shot up once again โ€” by as much as 26.7% in one area โ€” relative to 2022. The typical in-town Durango home will now cost you about $780,000, with the median priced condo/townhome selling for $529,000. The high high-end is even scarier: Homes in Purgatory resort area were selling for about $1.1 million in 2021; now theyโ€™re fetching $2.1 million. 

Perhaps most alarming is the way once-affordable areas have also become overpriced. As recently as 2018 the lowest priced house in the county sold for $48,000; last year it was three times that much. While the $150k or so sale would be within the price range of, say, a Durango school teacher, it is an outlier: I look at the listings constantly and rarely see anything under $200,000. The exception might be a trailer in a park, which is great, except that you need to add a $600-$1,200/month lot fee to the mortgage payment, which can easily push affordable housing into the unaffordable zone. 

Sighโ€ฆย More stats here.ย 

๐Ÿ Things that get my Goat ๐Ÿ

The once lofty institution known as National Geographic recently weighed in on the growing visitation to national parks issue by dispensing some advice to its 9.5 million readers: โ€œNational parks overcrowded?โ€ asks the headline. โ€œVisit a national forest.โ€  

Ugh.

Some national parks clearly are overflowing with visitors. And these crowds may diminish the experience for some of these visitors (others may be just fine with it). And the more people you have, presumably the more impacts they will bring. 

But shuffling them onto nearby public lands isnโ€™t the answer. All thatโ€™s doing is moving the people from places that have infrastructure, roads, and rangers designed to handle the crowds and limit their impacts, to places that lack this sort of infrastructure. Instead of being confined to paved roads, paths, viewpoints, visitors centers, and bathrooms, the masses will scatter themselves across fragile terrain with no rangers to guide them back to the trails. 

Iโ€™m not saying folks shouldnโ€™t go to the national forests or that they should be kept secret โ€” as if that were even possible. Itโ€™s just thatย National Geographicย should think about the potential impacts of these sorts of articles and who is benefiting from them. The parks wonโ€™t be better off, nor will the crowds be noticeably smaller. The forests wonโ€™t be better off. And probably the would-be national park visitor that headed to the forest to escape the crowds wonโ€™t benefit either. There is, after all, a reason so many people go to national parks (they have iconic landforms and infrastructure and interpretive signs and clean toilets and gift shops).ย Theyโ€™d only be disappointed by the forests. So let them go to the parks โ€” crowded or not โ€” and leave the forests alone.

๐Ÿ“– Reading Room โ€ฆ ๐Ÿง

โ€ฆ or Listeningย Room in this case. If you liked Tuesdayโ€™sย Messing with Maps dispatch, youโ€™ll probably also likeย The Magic Cityโ€™s podcast delving into the mysteries of Durangoโ€™s founding. Even those most versed in Colorado history will learn something and itโ€™s a captivating listen, besides.ย Check it out on Spotifyย or atย The Magic City.ย 

Parting Shot

Henry Mountains. Photo credit: Jonathan P. Thompson

The Fraud of Plastic Recycling: How Big Oil and the plastics industry deceived the public for decades and caused the plastic waste crisis — Center for #Climate Integrity #KeepItInTheGround #ActOnClimate

Top 10 sources of plastic pollution in our oceans.

Click the link to read the report on the Center for Climate Integrity website (Hat tip to H2ORadio). Here’s the introduction:

Plastic pollution is one of the most serious environmental crises facing the world today. Between 1950 and 2015, over 90% of plastics were landfilled, incinerated, or leaked into the environment. Plastic waste is ubiquitousโ€”from our rivers, lakes, and oceans to roadways and coastlines. It is in โ€œthe air we breathe, the food we eat, and the water we drink.โ€ One study estimates that humans ingest up to five grams or the equivalent of one credit card worth of plastic per week. Some of the largest oil and gas companies are among the 20 petrochemical companies responsible for more than half of all single-use plastics generated globally. ExxonMobil, for example, is the worldโ€™s top producer of single-use plastic polymers.

Underpinning this plastic waste crisis is a decades-long campaign of fraud and deception about the recyclability of plastics. Despite their long-standing knowledge that recycling plastic is neither technically nor economically viable, petrochemical companiesโ€”independently and through their industry trade associations and front groupsโ€”have engaged in fraudulent marketing and public education campaigns designed to mislead the public about the viability of plastic recycling as a solution to plastic waste. These efforts have effectively protected and expanded plastic markets, while stalling legislative or regulatory action that would meaningfully address plastic waste and pollution. Fossil fuel and other petrochemical companies have used the false promise of plastic recycling to exponentially increase virgin plastic production over the last six decades, creating and perpetuating the global plastic waste crisis and imposing significant costs on communities that are left to pay for the consequences.

Big Oil and the plastics industryโ€”which includes petrochemical companies, their trade associations, and the front groups that represent their interestsโ€”should be held accountable for their campaign of deception much like the producers of tobacco, opioids, and toxic chemicals that engaged in similar schemes. This report lays the foundation for such a claim.

โ€ข Part II provides an overview of the well-established technical and economic limitations of plastic recycling.

โ€ข Part III describes howโ€”in response to repeated waves of public backlash against plastic waste and subsequent threats of regulationโ€”the plastics industry has โ€œsoldโ€ plastic recycling to the American public to sell plastic.

โ€ข Part IV outlines the evidence of the plastics industryโ€™s fraudulent and deceptive campaigns, which are more fully detailed in Appendix C.

Petrochemical companies and the plastics industry should be held liable for their coordinated campaign of deception and the resulting harms that communities are now facing. True accountability will put an end to the industryโ€™s fraud of plastic recycling and open the door to real solutions to the plastic waste crisis that are currently out of reach.

Dust on snow primer — Jonathan P. Thompson (@Land_Desk) #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification #snowpack

Biological soil crusts, sometimes called cryptobiotic soil crusts, are an important part of arid and semi-arid ecosystems throughout the world, including those in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area. Crypto means hidden, while biota means life. These crusts are composed primarily of very small organisms that cannot be seen with the naked eye. Well-developed cryptobiotic soil crust is often much darker than the soil it is on top of, and has a sponge-like look, with bumps and small โ€œpinnacles.โ€. The extent of crust development depends on soil structure, texture, and chemistry as well as elevation and microclimate. Photo credit: Glen Canyon National Recreation Area

Click the link to read “Dust, snow, and diminishing albedo: Spring dust storms further shrink the snow ‘reservoir’ that feeds the Colorado River” on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

May 7, 2021

Most of us are poor now, like I am. Many of them blame John Collier, who made us reduce our flocks and herds because there was not enough grass for all. But I think the true reason is a change in the climate. When I was a young man this whole country was covered with tall grass. We had rains enough in summer to keep it alive and growing. Now the rains do not come and the grass dies. There are fewer sheep and horses now than when our family claimed this valley, yet all you can see is sand. The grass is gone.ย All we need to be rich again is rain.” — Navajo elder Hoskannini-Begay, who lived on Naatsisโ€™รกรกn, or Navajo Mountain, near the confluence of the San Juan and Colorado Rivers, to Charles Kelly in 1945

The McElmo Dome, Mesa Verde, and Ute Mountain, obscured by dust. Heavily grazed lands are in the foreground. The view was blotted out altogether later that day. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Itโ€™s springtime in the Southwest, which means that on four days out of five a dry wind blows incessantly, tossing hats and untethered tents high into the air. The Mistral of southern France is said to drive peopleโ€”and even horsesโ€”insane. The Four Corners Countryโ€™s April and May gusts are every bit as maddening, sending humans into paroxysms of mental distress.

And if the wind doesnโ€™t drive you to the brink, then the dust carried by that wind willโ€”dust that blots out desert views, coats your dinner with teeth-grinding grit, and somehow manages to get into every nook and cranny imaginable. Worse, that stuff will eventually fall on what remains of the snow in the mountains, coating the surface with a reddish-brown tinge that kills the snowโ€™s albedo (not libido, silly, albedo). That speeds up snowmelt, which has ripple effects across the ecosystem and water supplies in the lowlands, which, in turn, dries out and frees up more dust for the windโ€™s taking. 

During some years the โ€œdust eventsโ€ manifest as just that, distinct events during which the wind kicks up, followed by a growing volume of dust in the air, followed by a thick layer of dust on the surface of the snow. Dust storm feels too dramatic a phrase to describe the phenomenon. The incidents in the Four Corners country usually donโ€™t involve a wall of airborne sand, thousands of feet tall, rushing across the desert and gobbling up everything in its path, as sometimes happens further south in the Phoenix area. Dust event, on the other hand, feels too clinical. I prefer aeolianโ€”or windborneโ€”dust cloud, since its root is the Ancient Greek god of wind, Aeolus. 

These episodes are not uncommon in these parts, happening several times a year, most often in late winter and early spring. โ€œOur party experienced a violent windstorm when we were several miles above the mouth of Piute Creek,โ€ wrote Hugh D. Miser in a 1924 report on a trip down the San Juan River in Utah on 16-foot boats. โ€œIt blew in gusts and picked up sand and fine yellow dust, which were carried up into the air for hundreds if not thousands of feet.โ€ Eight years later, during the severe drought of the early 1930s, newspapers reported that a good two inches of red, dust-infused snow fell on Durango. In that case, the dust even may have โ€œseededโ€ the clouds, giving something around which the snowflakes could form.ย 

Story from the Feb. 5, 1932, Steamboat Pilot.

All that dust on (or in) the snow brings about subtle but significant changes by throwing the snowpackโ€™s albedo out of whack. โ€œAlbedo is a non-dimensional, unitless quantity that indicates how well a surface reflects solar energy,โ€ notes the National Snow and Ice Data Center. โ€œAlbedo varies between 0 and 1. Albedo commonly refers to the โ€˜whitenessโ€™ of a surface, with 0 meaning black and 1 meaning white.โ€ If a surfaceโ€™s albedo is zero, or black, then it absorbs all of the solar energy. If it is one, or totally white, it absorbs none of the solar energy, or reflects all of it. When dark-colored dust (or ash, or carbon, or what have you) coats the snow, it reduces the albedo, causing the snow surface to absorb more solar energy, thereby melting the snow more quickly.ย 

Dust on snow in the San Juans. Photo credit Chris Landry.

In 2003 a group of snow-focused scientists founded the Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies to study the dust-on-snow phenomenon in the San Juan Mountains and to better understand its long-term effects. The San Juan Mountain snowpack is considered to be a giant, natural reservoir that stores up vast amounts of water in the form of snow during the winter months, slowly releasing it to flow down to the arid, surrounding lands in the spring. Most of the snowmelt ends up in the Colorado River watershed, but the San Juan Mountains also contain headwaters for the Rio Grande. 

Those who use the water, whether they are irrigators or river rafters or fish, want an abundant but slow-melting snowpack. Dust on snow speeds up the snowmelt, disrupting alpine flora phenology,1 or the natural calendar that tells plants when to bloom and so forth, and pushing the spring runoff earlier into the year. Reduced albedo enhances evapotranspiration and snow sublimation2, thereby reducing the amount of water that goes into the streams and rivers. Aeolian dust on the snow, alone, has pushed the peak of spring runoff of the Colorado River watershed up by three weeks, when compared to the period prior to the 1850s, and it has also reduced the total runoff volume.  

These aeolian dust events are natural and have probably been taking place every spring since the end of the Pleistocene era and the retreat, some 12,000 years ago, of the glaciers that carved many of the regionโ€™s valleys. Maybe the dust events occurred during the last ice age and contributed to the melting of the glaciers, which was mainly caused by global warming resulting from a buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. That, too, was natural. But just as human activity is again causing an increase in carbon and a warming climate, so, too, has human activity exacerbated the aeolian dust cloud phenomenon.ย 

Map of the greater Colorado River Basin which encompasses the Colorado Plateau. Credit: GotBooks.MiraCosta.edu

By examining the sediment that had built up over nearly six millennia at the bottom of alpine lakes in the San Juan Mountains, researchers in 20083ย concluded that most, if not all, of the dust deposited on the San Juan Mountain snows is from the Colorado Plateau, not Asia or other distant lands, as has been hypothesized in the past. And they found that dust events have been occurring for thousands of years but picked up significantly beginning about a century and a half ago, coinciding with the white settler-colonist influx of the mid-1800s and peaking in the first few decades of the twentieth century, when volumes of dust were five times higher than they were prior to colonization. The timing leaves little doubt regarding the cause of the uptick in dust: a combination of the newcomersโ€™ land-disturbing ways, which include mining, development, tilling for farming, logging, and, perhaps most dust-raising of all, cattle grazing, which has drastically altered the landscape of the Colorado Plateau.ย 

Cattle have their evening meal in the San Luis Valley. Credit: Jerd Smith

The cattle and sheep ate the native grasses and trampled the fragile soil, making way for non-native grasses to invade and preclude the return of the native vegetation, while also encouraging gulley-forming erosion. Where once ran braided, intermittent streams along wide, flat, sandy beds, now there are deep channels. Streambeds are choked with cheatgrass and other invasive species. These gullied arroyos are so common in the Westโ€”the Rio Puerco in northern New Mexico offers one of the most striking examplesโ€”that many observers assume that it is the โ€œnaturalโ€ state, and that theyโ€™ve always looked that way. Call it normalized degradation.

The Rio Puerco, an ephemeral tributary of the Rio Grande, west of Albuquerque, crossing the eastern edge of the Tohajiilee Indian Reservation; December 2016. By Dicklyon – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=54602926

Cattle hooves will also wreck the fragile cryptobiotic crust that is critical to the desert ecosystem, and which, as renowned cryptobiotic crust researcher Jayne Belnap put it, holds โ€œthe place in place.โ€ Cryptobiotic crust, sometimes known as cryptogamic soil, is ubiquitous, or once was, in most of southeastern Utah. At first glance it looks just like, well, dirt, only with a dark-brown-to-black hue that resembles desert varnish. Bend down and look more closely, however, and youโ€™ll see a miniature, living worldโ€”a symbiotic mingling of cyanobacteria, lichen, and mossesโ€”which is particularly noticeable when the crust is wet. The cyanobacteria are made up of filaments wrapped in sheaths. Writes Belnap: โ€œThis sheath material sticks to surfaces such as rock or soil particles, forming an intricate webbing of fibers in the soil. In this way, loose soil particles are joined together, and otherwise unstable and highly erosion-prone surfaces become resistant to both wind and water erosion.โ€ And when the crust is destroyed, it leaves those same soils vulnerable to erosion and to the types of winds that scrape across the region every spring.ย 

And the damage is, indeed, irreparable. Once wrecked, cryptobiotic crust may take decades, even centuries, to fully recover. In 2005 Belnap published a paper4ย on the impacts of decades of grazing on soils in southeastern Utah. She and her co-researcher ventured into the Needles District of Canyonlands National Park and compared an area that had been grazed from the 1880s until 1974 with Virginia Park, an area where an impassible cliff kept cattle at bay, and which is now a โ€œrelict areaโ€ shut off to people entirely, save for researchers with a light touch. Belnapโ€™s findings are disturbing. Even 30 years after the cattle had been removed from the historically grazed site, the land had not recovered. The cyanobacteria were distributed spottily, the lichen and moss were only beginning to come back, nutrients and organic material were more sparse than in the ungrazed area, and the soil remains far less stable, which means it more easily can get picked up by the wind and carried to the snow in the San Juan Mountains. Also troubling is the difficulty the researchers had in finding plots of land that had never seen grazing at all, even in a national park. Somehow the cowboys of yore were able to squeeze the cows and their attendant effects into just about every corner of the region.ย 

Sonoran Desert. Credit: George Gentry/USFWS

Back in 1965, James Rodney Hastings and Raymond M. Turner compared historic photographs of a section of Sonoran Desert with modern ones and determined that cattle grazing in the late nineteenth century had caused a โ€œshift in the regional vegetation of an order so striking that it might be better associated with the oscillations of Pleistocene time than with the โ€˜stableโ€™ present.โ€5ย If we are currently living in the Anthropocene, then an appropriate subset might be the Bovineiferous period or, more appropriate still, the Beefocene.ย 

Clearly cattle are not the only culprit. ATVs, mountain bikes, cars, and bulldozers can wreck cryptobiotic crust and mobilize dust. Chaining huge swaths of juniper forest to make way for forage or even sagebrush is hugely destructive and dusty. Before each of the tens of thousands of oil and gas wells were drilled across the San Juan Basin, more than an acre of land was scraped clean of all vegetation, top soil, cacti, sagebrush, and even centuries-old juniper trees. Every new house or hotel built on Moabโ€™s, Durangoโ€™s, or Farmingtonโ€™s fringe stirs up dust. Springtime tilling of corn, bean, sunflower, and alfalfa fields kick up huge amounts of dust. Even a single human backpacker trodding through the P-J forest in hiking boots can crush and break up the living soil, liberating the dust underneath for the windโ€™s taking. 

And just as dust on snow can exacerbate aridity, so too can aridity exacerbate the dust problem. The winter of 2013 was one of the skimpiest snow years on record in the Four Corners Country, parching the Colorado Plateau and turning what should have been moist soils and muddy lands into dust patches. The March winds lifted the earth up into the air and carried it across the mesas and canyons, leading to a number of severe dust events. In Durango the dust was so thick that it fell with rain as a gritty red slime, coating cars and buildings and just about everything else; theย Durango Heraldย ran a woe-filled article about a window washer whose work was destroyed by the storm, forcing him to start all over again. Another dust event a week later would whip up a nasty wildfire near Farmington and contribute to a fatal car crash. The dust ended up on top of what snow was left in the San Juans, reducing rivers and streams to a trickle that summer.

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map April 29, 2021 via the NRCS.

This water year [2021]โ€”taken in isolationโ€”hasnโ€™t beenย quiteย as meagre, moisture-wise, as 2013 was, meaning a little more of the place seems to be staying in place, despite the maddening winds. But the effects of 20-plus years of aridification and warm temperatures has left the region unusually dry, and the relentless wind has filled the air with a constant, mid-level dust-haze, which thickens during especially gusty times.

A few weeks ago I unwittingly followed the aeolian dust cloud from northern Arizona into southeastern Utah, where I watched Ute Mountain and the Abajos slowly vanish behind a sepia-toned gauze that seemed to hang from the otherwise clear sky. A few days later I drove over Red Mountain Pass and pulled over to inspect the snowpack. A dusting of new snow had fallen atop the dust layer, partially covering it up for a brief moment. But it was springtime in the San Juans, another dry year in the unrelenting string of dry years, which meant that another dust cloud would arrive before long.

It felt strange but also revelatory to be in the thick of this big cycle of soil disturbance, aeolian dust events, reduced albedo, faster-melting snow, diminished river flows; to be experiencing the interconnectedness of the region, the intimate link between desert and mountains, in real time. 

Parts of this essay are excerpted fromย Sagebrush Empire: How a Remote Utah County Became the Battlefront of American Public Lands, by Jonathan P. Thompson, to be published by Torrey House Press in August 2021. Become aย Land Deskย Founding Member ($100 or more) and get a free signed copy, along with other swag, to be delivered this August.

San Juan Mountains March, 2016 photo credit Greg Hobbs.

The Colorado College 2024 Conservation in the West Poll is hot off the presses

Click the link to go to the Colorado College website to access the report. Here’s an excerpt:

Like so many hikes close to Boulder, the hike over Arapahoe Pass is slightly jarring for the first couple hours. It takes 45 minutes to go from the Tesla-bespeckled, yoga pants-wielding city to a view that looks completely untouched by people. To the right of this extraordinary view is the Arapahoe Glacier, which previously covered much of the area but is melting so fast it was claimed by the city of Boulder as an official municipal water source. Though it will be hard to restore the glacier, its looming absence serves as a reminder to do our absolute best to preserve the rest of the area, as we have already changed so much of the landscape.

#ClimateChange denial heats up at #Wyoming Capitol — @WyoFile #ActOnClimate

Senator Cheri Steinmetz (R-Lingle) chairs an official Senate Agriculture, State and Public Lands and Water Resources Committee hearing at the Wyoming Capitol in February 2024. (Mike Koshmrl/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile website (Mike Koshmrl and  Dustin Bleizeffer):

February 15, 2024

Sen. Cheri Steinmetz was clear: The committee chairwoman did not want to hear prevailing viewpoints about carbon dioxide and climate change.

Those who accept what climate scientists have known for decades โ€” that the planet is warming because of human-caused CO2  emissions โ€” need not speak up, the Lingle Republican said.

โ€œIf proponents of a different viewpoint wish to express that,โ€ Steinmetz said, โ€œthey are free to have a hearing of their own.โ€ 

That left room for only alternative theories, those that deny or discount the world-changing effect carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses are having on human beings, other species and the climatic conditions of the planet. 

Purported experts invited to testify, and other speakers, including each lawmaker who spoke, expressed either disbelief that climate change was happening, or a belief that it is inconsequential, even beneficial.

Speakers with the CO2 Coalition testify at a Senate Agriculture, State and Public Lands and Water Resources Committee hearing. The advocacy group is known for spreading disproven claims about climate change. (Ashton J. Hacke/WyoFile)

Flanking Steinmetz in the Wyoming Capitol extension building auditorium were four members of the Senate Agriculture, State and Public Lands and Water Resources Committee: Sens. Dan Laursen (R-Powell), John Kolb (R-Rock Springs), Tim French (R-Powell) and Bob Ide (R-Casper). 

They nodded and smiled as they listened to presentations from speakers brought in from the CO2 Coalition. The group touted its theory โ€” discredited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other climate scientists โ€” that loading more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will not tip the planetโ€™s climate into unlivable conditions.

William Happer, a physicist and co-founder of the CO2 Coalition, told lawmakers and attendees that those who believe climate science have been brainwashed. 

โ€œI donโ€™t know how you deprogram people from a cult,โ€ Happer said, โ€œitโ€™s really sort of a cult.โ€

Pamphlets distributed by an advocacy group, the CO2 Coalition, were distributed at a Wyoming Legislature hearing this week. On the front, the pamphlet declares: โ€œCO2 should be celebrated, not captured.โ€ (Ashton J. Hacke/WyoFile)

But the science is clear. In fact, human-caused climate change has pushed Wyomingโ€™s annual mean temperature upward by 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit from 1920 to 2020, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data. Wyomingโ€™s highest elevations are warming even faster, already changing the seasonal pulse of water flows that the stateโ€™s economy is built around.

Climate change, which is already changing peopleโ€™s lives in Wyoming, will have a dramatic effect on temperature regimes all across the state, according to University of Wyoming climate scientist Bryan Shuman. A place like Jackson, he said, will go from virtually never touching 90 degrees to getting that warm with regularity. 

โ€œOn the track weโ€™re on by 2050, [Jackson] will pretty easily start to have about two weeks of 90 degree weather,โ€ said Shuman, one of the lead authors of the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment. โ€œBy 2100, depending on whether we mitigate carbon emissions or not, [Jackson] either ends up staying around that two-week level or it gets up to about two months of 90 degree weather.โ€

Deniersโ€™ road trip

The CO2ย Coalitionโ€™s participation at the legislative hearing was part of a three-stop engagement in Wyoming. The Wyoming Republican Party teamed up with conservative group Turning Point USA to host speakers from the coalition for a series of events this week in Gillette, Cheyenne and at the University of Wyoming in Laramie.

Laramie resident Laurie Richmond attended the UW event and said sheโ€™s very concerned about Gov. Mark Gordonโ€™s policy goal to capture and store more carbon than is emitted. 

The governor, Richmond told WyoFile, wonโ€™t even give the CO2 Coalition speakers โ€œthe time of dayโ€ โ€” and she wasnโ€™t happy about it. 

Richmond worried about the economic burden of current state policies that attempt to force carbon capture retrofits at Wyoming coal-fired power plants. So far, Wyoming ratepayersย are being forced to cover more than $3 million in costsย for utilities to study the feasibility of adding carbon capture at five coal-burning units in the state โ€” studies that were mandated by the Wyoming Legislature. If the utilities actually implement carbon capture at the coal plants, Black Hills Energy customers in Wyoming could be tapped for up to $1 billion, and Rocky Mountain Powerโ€™s Wyoming customers could pay more than $2 billion, according to preliminary filings with the state.

William Happer, co-founder and Chairman of the CO2 Coalition, in the red tie, arrives at the University of Wyoming in Laramie Feb. 14, 2024. (Dustin Bleizeffer)

โ€œThis is all about government grifting,โ€ Richmond said. โ€œCan we really afford $1,000 electrical bills every month? So Gov. Gordonโ€™s got a problem coming.โ€

In the Capitol, Steinmetz said at the onset that the Senate Agriculture hearing wasnโ€™t intended to be a personal attack on the governor. That didnโ€™t stop speakers from taking shots at his policies. 

โ€œCO2 capture is unnecessarily costly and dangerous and therefore, it is not worth pursuing for the state of Wyoming โ€” or anyone, for that matter,โ€ Frits Byron Soepyan, a chemical engineer, told lawmakers. 

Gordon has defended his policies on national television, during his State of the State address and again Tuesday in Casper

The governor responds

โ€œThere are people that are going to say, โ€˜Climate is not changing.โ€™ Or theyโ€™ll say, โ€˜Itโ€™s better to have more CO2.โ€™ We can talk about all of that, but that doesnโ€™t really matter,โ€ Gordon said while speaking to business leaders in Casper on Tuesday.

More than 20 years of climate policy dictated from outside the state has moved markets toward lower-carbon energy sources, Gordon said. If Wyomingโ€™s coal, oil and natural gas are going to remain viable, those industries must have technical solutions to reduce their carbon emissions, the governor has maintained.ย 

Gov. Mark Gordon visits with City of Casper leaders during an Advance Casper event on Feb. 13, 2024. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

โ€œThe reason I say that it doesnโ€™t really matter [where Wyomingites stand on climate change] is that what we are seeing is a regulatory environment that says, โ€˜We need to move away from fossil fuels because thatโ€™s the only way that we can save the planet, and we need to move to renewables because thatโ€™s the only way that we can save the climate,โ€™โ€ Gordon said.  

โ€œThe most important thing is that Wyoming not stick its head in the sand,โ€ he continued. โ€œIf [carbon capture] isnโ€™t going to happen here, itโ€™s going to happen โ€” it is already happening in places like Texas and places like Louisiana. We really need to make sure that Wyoming is competitive, that it is a leader and that it is a place that people come to find the solutions.โ€ 

Gordon and his chief energy advisor, Randall Luthi, are working with Sen. Cale Case (R-Lander) and others on an idea that more equitably distributes both the cost of adding renewables and the cost of integrating fossil fuel carbon capture into the western electricity grid. All those capital costs โ€” as well as long-term benefits โ€” should be spread โ€œsystem wide,โ€ Luthi told WyoFile.

Wind turbines north of Medicine Bow, pictured Feb. 9, 2024. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

It will be a tough sell among Wyomingโ€™s counterparts on the western grid, Gordon admitted. But itโ€™s part of his signature โ€œDecarbonizing the Westโ€ initiative as chairman of the Western Governors Association. Ultimately, Wyoming cannot impose such a system-wide โ€œfeeโ€ on its own, Gordon told WyoFile. But the current electrical power regulatory regime doesnโ€™t fairly distribute the cost of pursuing a net-zero electrical grid. 

โ€œWeโ€™re all in this together,โ€ Gordon said. โ€œInstead of being a victim, Wyoming can say, โ€˜If youโ€™re really interested in doing something about CO2, we got the answer. We got the answer from the bottom to the top.’โ€

A state of climate denial 

Steinmetz and other far-right lawmakers in the Legislature have tried to capitalize politically on Gordonโ€™s carbon-capture advocacy. Itโ€™s fair to say their criticisms land with some residents of Wyoming, a state long financially dependent on revenue from carbon-producing industries and where fewer than half of residents believe humankind is driving climate change.

Approximately 38% of Wyoming residents believe โ€œclimate change is an extremely or very serious problem,โ€ and 46% โ€œhave noticed significant effects from climate change over the past 10 years,โ€ according to Colorado Collegeโ€™s annual Conservation in the West Poll, released earlier this month. Fifty-four percent โ€œthink that the low level of water in rivers is a serious problem,โ€ according to the poll.

Still, Steinmetzโ€™s and othersโ€™ efforts to make a spectacle of Gordonโ€™s carbon policies havenโ€™t gone over seamlessly. There was a fight, for example, over whether the Senate Agriculture Committeeโ€™s climate denier-led hearing should have been considered an official legislative event.ย 

In late January Steinmetz spread word of the hearing onย official Wyoming Legislature letterhead. She challenged the governorโ€™s authority to pursue a carbon-negative policy: โ€œThe Legislature must have a true cost-benefit analysis in order to make an informed policy decision regarding the governorโ€™s decarbonization plans for the state of Wyoming,โ€ the Goshen County senator said in a press release.ย 

CO2 Coalition Executive Director Gregory Whitestone spoke at the University of Wyoming on Feb. 14, 2024. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

The Legislatureโ€™s leadership didnโ€™t appreciate it. Two days later the speaker of the House, Rep. Albert Sommers (R-Pinedale) and the Senate president, Sen. Ogden Driskill (R-Devils Tower) sent out another press release purportedly uncoupling the event from the Ag Committee. 

Notice of the hearing, however, remained on the Legislatureโ€™s website, and under the banner of the committee chaired by Steinmetz. 

The Legislative Service Office explained the decision in an email: โ€œUnder the Senate Rules a chairman can convene a meeting of their committee at any point during a legislative session to discuss items they deem to be relevant.โ€ 

House Majority Floor Leader, Rep. Chip Neiman (R-Hulett), thought that leaving the hearing sanctioned was โ€œappropriate,โ€ given how โ€œdeeply involved agriculture is in the whole issue of climate change.โ€ 

Parroting disproven claims 

Shuman, the UW climate scientist, missed Turning Point USAโ€™s event with the CO2 Coalition speakers due to a conflict, but afterward he looked into their resumes and a short report they produced about Wyoming and climate change. 

โ€œThey are not climate scientists,โ€ Shuman said.

The University of Wyoming professor took issue with some of the graphics the CO2 Coalition speakers presented. He was โ€œshocked,โ€ he said, by one graph purporting that annual average max temperatures have declined over the last 90 years in Wyoming, a โ€œtruly misleadingโ€ assertion.ย 

โ€œBasically, every single weather station across the state refutes that this is the trend,โ€ Shuman said.ย 

Sen. Cheri Steinmetz (R-Lingle) gives remarks at a press conference that followed a legislative hearing that promoted disproven claims about climate change. (Mike Koshmrl/WyoFile)

Nevertheless, the CO2 Coalition speakers had a receptive audience with the Senate Ag Committee. The next day, Steinmetz and other hardline Republican members of the Legislature gathered for a follow-up press conference. 

โ€œOur voters โ€” the citizens of Wyoming โ€” are rightly skeptical of this so-called crisis and permanent carbon capture and sequestration,โ€ Steinmetz said. 

Ten members of the Legislature, plus Secretary of State Chuck Gray, spoke after Steinmetz. Some doubted climate change was happening, while others challenged the need to act and take steps like sequestering carbon. Yet other legislators repeated the CO2 Coalitionโ€™s primary disproven message: that the primary gas accelerating the climate crisis is actually beneficial. 

โ€œWe all know CO2 is good,โ€ said Sen. Dan Laursen (R-Powell), a hydrographer with the State Engineerโ€™s Office. โ€œPlants have to have it. The more there is there, the plants do better.โ€ 

Sen. Tim French (R-Powell) agreed.ย 

Sen. Tim French (R-Powell) gives remarks at a press conference that followed a legislative hearing that promoted disproven claims about climate change. (Mike Koshmrl/WyoFile)

โ€œAs a farmer, I need a lot of CO2 to grow my crops,โ€ French said. โ€œThereโ€™s a lot of hype out there from different individuals, but in my world, my business, I really need it.โ€ 

Climate scientists, however, came to consensus decades ago that the atmosphere needs less CO2 โ€” at least if the goal is to inhabit a planet resembling the one we know today. In the middle of the 20th century the average annual temperature in Wyoming was about 40 degrees, Shuman said. Today, itโ€™s approaching 43 degrees. 

โ€œWhile that doesnโ€™t sound like a huge amount, itโ€™s worth keeping in mind that the difference between the last ice age and today is only about 5 to 7 degrees,โ€ Shuman said. โ€œEven a few degrees makes a big difference.โ€ย 

The Global Monitoring Division of NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory has measured carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases for several decades at a globally distributed network of air sampling sites. Credit: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

A Price for the Priceless: How do we value #Coloradoโ€™s water? — Fresh Water News

A headgate on an irrigation ditch on Maroon Creek, a tributary of the Roaring Fork River. Photo credit: Aspen Journalism/Brent Gardner-Smith

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Nelson Harvey):

You might call it the great economic riddle of our time: It sustains human life, lubricates the entire economy and has no known substitute, yet a monthโ€™s supply can be delivered to your home for less than the cost of cable TV or cell phone service. It belongs to the public but the right to use it is bought and sold, and changing that use requires a pricey court approval process. It supports kayakers and anglers, trout and sparrows, and all the ecosystems in between, yet those benefits are rarely reflected in its cost. It is cheap, and yet it is priceless. What is it?

If youโ€™re reading [Headwaters] magazine, you already know that the answer is water, and you already know that water is invaluable. What you may not know is that waterโ€™s price, according to many economists, comes nowhere near to reflecting its true value, and that blunt economic fact has consequences for the long-term sustainability of both our water resources and our water systems.

Aligning waterโ€™s price with its value is much harder than it seems. Thatโ€™s because water is traded and regulated in ways that reflect its unique and irreplaceable role in our economy. Depending on who you ask, water is a private commodity or a public good, an economic input or a human right.

These varying roles affect the accuracy of water prices, and the freedomโ€”or lack thereofโ€”of water markets. Some examples: In Colorado, many water utilities are prevented by their charters from charging more than they need to cover their costs. This keeps water rates affordable but also prevents providers from charging customers for the current market value of their water, also called the โ€œscarcity value,โ€ to encourage conservation. Legal restrictions on water transfersโ€”in place to protect other water usersโ€”make those transfers complicated and expensive, slowing the flow of water from farms to cities and helping to preserve the gap between agricultural and municipal water prices. At the same time, many non-market costs of water transfers or appropriationsโ€”โ€œexternalitiesโ€ like the open space, wildlife habitat and fishing grounds lost when farmers sell their water rights to a city or a new water right is appropriated, further depleting a streamโ€”are not typically paid for by the buyer or the seller.

Ignoring the full cost of waterโ€”and the non-market values that water providesโ€”saves money in the short term by keeping water rates low. In the long run, however, it could prove both financially and culturally expensive. Over time, wasteful use may hasten the need for costly new water projects, and public benefits like wildlife habitat and open space are less likely to be preserved if they arenโ€™t factored into the price of water transfers. Given the stakes, how can we value water more accurately, while preserving the legal framework that protects water users and the environment?

Supply and demand, within limits

When utilities, ditch companies and irrigation districts buy water rights to serve their populations, the price of those rights is determined in part by the basic interplay of supplyโ€”what the water costs to deliverโ€”and demandโ€”what itโ€™s worth to buyers. Brett Bovee, intermountain regional director for the consulting firm WestWater Research of Fort Collins, helps clients value water rights for purchase or sale. He considers factors like a water rightโ€™s source, location, current use, historical buyers and sellers, ease of storage, and seniority, since older rights are more dependably fulfilled than those appropriated more recently.

Bovee might compare a water right to a handful of others with similar characteristics to arrive at a reasonable price, or, if the water is agricultural, he might use a technique called the income approach, calculating the yields that a farmer could get irrigating with the water compared to dryland farming yields. (A slight variation is comparing the sale price of dry farm ground to that of irrigated land nearby, then using the difference to infer a water rightโ€™s value). A final technique, the replacement cost approach, involves calculating the cost of the next-most expensive water supply option and then advising clients to pay just less than that.

โ€œUsually the replacement cost sets the ceiling, the income approach sets the floor, and the market price is somewhere between those two,โ€ Bovee says. โ€œThe willing seller must make more off a water transaction than he would in farming, and the willing buyer is only going to buy water if it is cheaper than alternative sources.โ€

Brett Bovee. Photo credit: Westwater Research

Yet the economic playing field is not completely level where water is concerned, as evidenced by the vast and enduring price differences between agricultural and municipal water. As University of Arizona law professor Robert Glennon and his co-authors point out in the 2014 paper โ€œShopping for Water: How the Market Can Mitigate Water Shortages in the American West,โ€ agricultural users in many parts of the West may pay just a few cents for a thousand gallons of water, while urban users pay $1 to $3 for the same amount. Thatโ€™s partly because, in a strictly financial sense, urban users can earn more money with the water they consume: If you ignore the vital non-market values of agriculture like open space, wildlife habitat and food security, urban activities like manufacturing frequently generate more money per acre-foot of water than farming does. Used to grow lettuce in Yuma, Arizona, Glennon writes, an acre-foot of water might generate $6,000. Used to make microchips in Californiaโ€™s Silicon Valley, it would generate $13 million.

The price disparity between agricultural and municipal water is further explained by higher treatment and conveyance costs for urban water, from the chemicals that disinfect drinking water to the pumps that keep it pressurized and ready to flow from the tap. โ€œIf farmers needed really clean, pressurized water at their farm headgate on demand, the price between agricultural and municipal water may not be all that different,โ€ Bovee says.

Grand River Ditch July 2016. Photo credit Greg Hobbs.

Agricultural water users who inherit their land also benefit from the investments their ancestors made in ditch and reservoir systems originally constructed to put the water to beneficial use.ย Today, they pay only the water assessments necessary to maintain or improve these systems or to make the occasional legal filings. When they sell their shares in their infrastructure or water rights, they earn the appreciated value of both, which can be substantial in areas like Coloradoโ€™s Front Range where a booming residential real estate market has kept water demand high.

First water through the Adams Tunnel. Photo credit Northern Water.

Finally, federally funded irrigation projects provided a subsidy to early agricultural water users: Many of the Westโ€™s large water diversions were paid for with federal dollars between the 1930s and the 1970s. Although those federal outlays were partly recouped through a combination of cost sharing from local governments and revenues from projectsโ€™ hydroelectric features, the federal government never required full reimbursement from water users. Examples include the Colorado-Big Thompson Project, authorized by Congress during the Great Depression to provide a supplementary source of water to farmers and cities in northern Colorado, as well as earlier Western Slope projects like the Uncompahgre Project and the Grand Valley Project.ย โ€œRecipients of irrigation water from federal projects will have repaid, on average, about U.S. $0.10 on each dollar of construction cost,โ€ writes University of California, Berkeley economist W.M. Hanemann In his 2005 paper โ€œThe Economic Conception of Water.โ€ Today, federal funds are largely unavailable to help finance water supply infrastructure.

Although they remain much higher than agricultural water prices, municipal water rates are hardly exempt from market manipulation, and for good reasons. Because water is widely considered a basic necessity for human life and economic activity, many Colorado utilities are public entities whose rates are regulated by local governments or appointed boards, and even the rates of private, investor-owned utilities are limited by the Colorado Public Utility Commission.ย  Many municipal utilities set their rates through โ€œcost-of-serviceโ€ pricing, which doesnโ€™t account for the value of water itself but factors in only what it costs to run the utilityโ€”energy, water treatment chemicals, office staffโ€”plus maintain financial reserves, make debt service payments, and repair aging pipes, tanks, reservoirs and other infrastructure. A growing number of utilities also employ โ€œincreasing block rateโ€ pricing to keep everyday water use affordable while penalizing higher water users to encourage conservation. Yet their rates include little or no charge for waterโ€™s replacement cost or โ€œscarcity value:โ€ what it would cost to obtain their water on the open market today, or what they could earn by selling their water and using the proceeds to pay off debt or meet other obligations.

โ€œFor a farmer to keep a tractor, they have to be earning more by keeping it than they could make by selling it,โ€ says Chris Goemans, an associate professor of economics at Colorado State University (CSU) who specializes in water issues. โ€œFor water rights portfolios, there is no charge to households to reflect the fact that the water could go somewhere else and earn more money for the utility.โ€

Failing to account for this opportunity cost encourages customers to use their water for purposes worth less to them than the cost of bringing that water to the tap, whether thatโ€™s watering the lawn or filling the swimming pool. Thatโ€™s highly inefficient from an economistโ€™s point of view. โ€œYou donโ€™t want people using water that costs $10 per gallon to produce on applications for which they place a value of a dollar or two,โ€ says Chuck Howe, a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Colorado, Boulder. โ€œIf the price to the consumer doesnโ€™t cover all the costs of production, then individual customers will apply water to uses that are, at the margin, worth less than the costs imposed on society.โ€

Boulderโ€™s Avery Brewing Company is one among 230-plus Colorado craft and micro breweries that have combined water with barley, hops and other specialty ingredients to establish a nationally recognized market for beer enthusiasts. Photo courtesy of Avery Brewing Company

Artificially cheap water saves customers money today, but in the long run will prove expensive as utilities are forced to meet growing demands by acquiring expensive new water rights or building new infrastructure. In a 2013 analysis, city staff in Westminster, Colorado, calculated that water rates would be 135 percent higher and water tap fees 99 percent higher if per-capita water demand in the city had not fallen by 21 percent since 1980. That declining consumptionโ€”driven by a combination of utility-sponsored conservation programs, conservation-oriented increasing block rate water pricing and stricter national plumbing codesโ€”saved the city over $5.9 million on water and wastewater treatment, new water rights, and loan interest payments, which would have been passed along to residents in the form of higher rates and tap fees. Even though water rates have risen in Westminster since 1980, in part to compensate for declines in per-capita consumption, they have risen much less than they would have if per-capita consumption had stayed flat as the population grew.

Howe believes that charging customers for the scarcity value of their water could have a similarly virtuous effect on consumptionโ€”and thus on water ratesโ€”over the long haul. In an unpublished paper co-written with water attorney Peter Nichols of the Boulder firm Berg Hill Greenleaf Ruscitti LLP, Howe argues that utilities could encourage conservation by charging customers more for each 1,000 gallons of water they use, then refunding any resulting profits by reducing the fixed monthly service charges that appear on monthly water bills. By increasing the price of each 1,000 gallons of water by just $1.50, Howe and Nichols surmise, the City of Boulder could earn $20 million per year, a sum equivalent to 5 percent of its $400 million water rights portfolio. This would encourage conservation without harming ratepayersโ€™ overall bottom lines, since higher volumetric usage fees would be offset by reductions in fixed service charges.

Love thy neighbor: Legal restrictions on water transfers

Despite the limits on what municipal utilities can charge, the gap between urban and agricultural water prices persists. Thatโ€™s partly because significant legal barriers discourage those who get their water cheaplyโ€”farmersโ€”from selling it to the cities who will pay dearly for it. Those barriers serve noble goals: Because water, unlike other commodities like land or electricity, is often used several times in succession within the same river basin, many users depend on the reliable timing and amount of return flows from their neighbors upstream. To protect those flows, legal restrictions, such as the โ€œno harm to juniorsโ€ rule, prevent anyone who moves their water or changes its use from impacting other water users. Colorado water courts employ several other principles in regulating water trades: The beneficial use requirement is intended to discourage waste and requires water to be put to beneficial uses approved by the legislature or the courts or else abandoned, and the anti-speculation doctrine mandates that anyone changing their water use show precisely its new use, location and amount, to prevent speculators from buying water and simply holding it, unused, until prices rise.

Water courts also limit the salable portion of a water right to its โ€œhistorical consumptive use,โ€ the average amount actually absorbed by crops, retained by people and lawns, or used up by industrial processes over the water rightโ€™s history. This prevents farmers from harming other water users by selling water they no longer have to divert as a result of improving their irrigation efficiency, provided they leave irrigated acreage and consumptive use unchanged. Before the efficiency improvements, the unused portion of the water diverted and applied had served other users in the form of return flows, so Colorado law protects those historical return flows for appropriation by other users after efficiency improvements are made.

On July 7, 2020, we closed our headgate that takes water from the Little Cimarron for irrigation. The water in the above photo will now bypass our headgate and return to the river. Photo via the Colorado Water Trust.

Taken together, these restrictions discourage water from simply flowing to the highest bidder. They make the process of transferring water rights time consuming and expensive, since detailed engineering studies and costly legal filings are necessary to prevent other water users from being injured without compensation. And yet, examples abound of Colorado water law flexing to accommodate changing state priorities. The nonprofit Colorado Water Trust and the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB)โ€”the only entity in the state that can hold an instream flow water rightโ€”are now seeking water court approval for the stateโ€™s first permanent โ€œsplit-seasonโ€ water right on the Little Cimarron River in Gunnison County. The right, acquired by the Colorado Water Trust, will permit the same water to be used for agricultural irrigation in the early summer and then for instream flows that benefit fish in the fall. Another example: Under a state law passed in 2013, farmers and municipal water providers can now enter into so-called โ€œinterruptible supply agreementsโ€ three out of every 10 years without the approval of a water court. In this arrangement, farmers fallow some of their land or reduce irrigation and then, with the blessing of the State Engineer, convey the freed-up water to cities in exchange for short-term lease payments. One such arrangement, the Arkansas Valley Super Ditch, is partway through a three-year pilot project that began in spring 2015 when irrigators on the Catlin Canal east of Pueblo leased 500 acre-feet of water to the cities of Fowler, Fountain and Security.

โ€œIt went so smoothly the first year that I donโ€™t think we want to mess it up by changing anything,โ€ says John Schweizer, president of the Lower Arkansas Valley Super Ditch Company and the Catlin Canal Company. Because agricultural commodity prices were low in 2015, Schweizer says, the farmers who participated earned at least twice as much fallowing land and leasing water as they would have growing corn, wheat or alfalfa on the same acreage. And they still kept at least 70 percent of their water rights in agricultural production, as required by law. Even though there are two years left in the pilot project, Schweizer says, โ€œThe City of Fountain is already talking about coming back and negotiating a longer term lease, which could mean bringing more farmers into the program.โ€

Ideally, these alternative transfer methods (ATMs) could give cities reliable sources of water in dry years without requiring the โ€œbuy and dryโ€ of agricultural lands. Yet short-term leases are a relatively new concept, and because urban water providers must plan for a reliable, long-term supply they often prefer to purchase agricultural water outright. Some urban utilities then lease the water back to farmers until they need it, giving them flexibility in deciding when to begin the sometimes long and arduous process of filing for a change of use in water court.

โ€œIf you are a water [utility] manager, when you provide a water tap to a developer you are promising them water. Short-term leases are just not reliable enough right now to fulfill that promise,โ€ says Goemans, at least not for a cityโ€™s entire water supply.

Still, reducing regulatory barriers to water leasing is likely to make it more common over time. In the South Platte River Basin, where the Colorado-Big Thompson (C-BT) Project diverts water from the upper Colorado River, owners of contracts for C-BT water are only required to obtain the blessing of the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District board, rather than a water court, before selling or leasing their water interests, and a robust leasing market has materialized there.

According to a 2016 WestWater Research report, leases have accounted for about 80 percent of all water trades in the South Platte Basin in recent years, and most transactions have involved farmers leasing their water to cities. The value of this streamlined process is also reflected in the sale price of C-BT unitsโ€”unlike a lease, a sale gives a buyer rights to the unit in perpetuity. In 2015, C-BT units changed hands 67 times and fetched an average sale price of $36,300 per acre-footโ€”by the second quarter of 2016 the price was above $40,000. Meanwhile area ditch shares, whose transfer requires water court approval, were traded just 23 times for an average price of $13,800 per acre-foot.

From “The Stages of Cannabis Growth“. Photo credit: Clean Leaf Air Filtration Systems
Pricing the priceless: The non-market value of water

The market for C-BT units is a compelling example of what freer water trading might look like, yet several factors make it unlikely that such a market could be replicated across Colorado. Under a 1938 contract between Northern Water and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, all contracts for C-BT water must be exercised within the boundaries of Northern Waterโ€™s service area. Units of C-BT water can only be used once before being allowed to flow down the lower South Platte River between Greeley and the Nebraska border, for the benefit of irrigators there. And yet, irrigators on the lower river have no legal right to claim injury if the lease or sale of C-BT units affects the return flows they rely on, since the prior appropriation doctrineโ€”including the no-harm-to-juniors ruleโ€”applies only to native flows within a river basin, not to transbasin diversion water. This minimizes objections when C-BT units are leased or sold.

Colorado-Big Thompson Project Map via Northern Water

Leaving aside these complicated machinations, there is a simpler reason why most of Coloradoโ€™s water sales and leases are still regulated by water courts: Legal safeguards like the no-harm-to-juniors rule play an important role in limiting harm to third parties or the environment when water is moved. They also highlight waterโ€™s role as both a private good and a public resource with important environmental and cultural values.

Economists have devised a suite of techniques to translate those โ€œnon-marketโ€ values into financial terms so that they can be factored into cost-benefit analyses of water projects. Perhaps the most prominent technique is โ€œcontingent valuation,โ€ where economists survey water users to gauge their financial willingness to pay for environmental benefits or willingness to accept environmental harms.

Big Wood Falls photo via American Whitewater (2011)

People value waterโ€™s role in the environment for a wide variety of reasons: โ€œUse valueโ€ reflects the benefit of using a waterway for kayaking, rafting or swimming; โ€œexistence valueโ€ measures the well-being gained from simply knowing that a river exists; and โ€œbequest valueโ€ shows the worth of knowing that an environmental good will be preserved and passed down to future generations. There is also โ€œintrinsic valueโ€โ€”the notion that other water-dependent species should be allowed to exist regardless of their value to humans.

Because some of these values have an emotional component, it can be tough to give them the same weight as purely financial considerations, and many cost-benefit analyses reflect this problem. In 2011, for instance, the Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment was considering additional limits on releases of phosphorous and nitrogen from wastewater treatment plants to comply with enforcement of the federal Clean Water Act by the Environmental Protection Agency. A state-commissioned study by the consulting firm CDM Smith weighed the costs of those new regulationsโ€”new equipment and more intensive wastewater treatment and monitoringโ€”against benefits like reduced spending on drinking water treatment, better-tasting and better-looking drinking water, improved ecological function in rivers and streams, and increased recreation. The study found that the regulations would yield just $0.79 worth of benefits for every $1.00 spent to implement them. Yet it relied on rough estimatesโ€”derived from previous economic studiesโ€”of the financial value that people place on environmental benefits. And it did not weigh qualitative benefits like existence and bequest value, despite the fact that these values often account for half of peopleโ€™s willingness to pay for environmental benefits, according to CSU environmental economics professor John Loomis.

Colorado transmountain diversions via the State Engineer’s office

Those same omissions have characterized, and potentially marred, other studies. A 2009 study by the Front Range Water Council, a group of Front Range water providers that has advocated for new transbasin diversions from Coloradoโ€™s Western Slope, found that the Front Range withdraws 19.4 percent of the stateโ€™s water but generates 80 to 86 percent of the stateโ€™s economic activity, while western Colorado withdraws 41 percent of the stateโ€™s water but comprises just 10 percent of the stateโ€™s economy. By that logic, the Front Range produces about $132,268 in economic output per acre-foot of water used, compared to just $7,200 per acre-foot on the Western Slope. Yet those figures fail to account for the economic costs that diverting water to the Front Range imposes on the Western Slope, along with the financial benefits of things like tourism and recreation, which rely on keeping western Colorado water in the stream. The Northwest Colorado Council of Governments (NWCCOG), a coalition of Western Slope municipal governments whose members generally oppose new transbasin diversions, attempted to address these omissions with its own 2012 study:ย โ€œWater and its Relationship to the Economies of the Headwaters Counties.โ€

โ€œWe have struggled to convey how important having water in the river is to the economy in the headwaters region, especially in the summer,โ€ says Torie Jarvis, co-director of the Water Quality and Quantity Committee at NWCCOG. โ€œThat study was meant to point out that there were values that studies like the Front Range Water Councilโ€™s were not accounting for.โ€

Fraser River at gage below Winter Park ski area. Photo credit: Colorado Water Trust

Some of these values, and the economic implications of protecting them, are relatively easy to quantify: The town of Winter Park, for instance, is forced to treat its wastewater to a higher standard because 65 percent of the Fraser River that once flowed through town is diverted to the Front Range, making wastewater more difficult to dilute. โ€œWe have seen an impact on the cost of wastewater treatment year-round due to the lack of dilution flows,โ€ says Bruce Hutchins, manager of the Grand County Water and Sanitation District 1. Faced with ongoing transbasin diversions, Winter Park town leaders have also opted to curtail the townโ€™s development to keep at least 10 cubic feet per second of water in the Fraser River at all times. That has clear economic consequences: At buildout, the town could accommodate about 9,300 single-family housing units if officials were willing to dry up the river to provide them with water. Instead, the town has capped the number of water taps it will dispense to allow for just 8,300 single-family units in order to maintain river flows.

Colorado fly fishing, whitewater and other water-related recreational pursuits contribute significantly to Coloradoโ€™s $34.5 billion recreational economy. Photo courtesy of the Winter Park Convention and Visitors Bureau

โ€œItโ€™s a bit backwards from the way that other communities have done it,โ€ says Winter Park community development director James Shockey. โ€œWeโ€™ve put the river first, and then looked at how much we can develop from there.โ€

Other values compromised by transbasin diversions, like the potential effect of changes in water use on tourism, require non-market valuation in order to be expressed financially. In a March 2003 study, CSU economists Adam Orens and Andrew Seidl surveyed winter tourists in the towns of Gunnison and Crested Butte to see how changes in the areaโ€™s open space ranch landscape would affect their decision to vacation there. More than half of those surveyed said they would reconsider vacationing in the area if just 25 percent of the existing ranchland were converted to second homes or other uses. If all of the ranchland were converted, the researchers concluded that tourism in the area could drop by as much as 40 percent.

Contingent valuation surveys have also shed light on the value of water left in rivers for recreation, wildlife habitat and scenic views, which sometimes exceeds the economic benefit of diverting that same water to farms or cities. In a 2008 study, CSU Economist John Loomis surveyed a random sampling of Fort Collins residents and found that they were willing to pay an average of $352 per year to keep peak spring and summer flows in the Cache La Poudre River rather than letting agricultural and municipal users deplete them. โ€œIt appears the value of these instream flows to Fort Collins residents is of the same magnitude as the market value of the water in alternative uses,โ€ like irrigation and municipal use, Loomis concluded. In Colorado today, there are two legalย  mechanisms that Fort Collins residents could use to keep that water in the stream, and both involve the prior appropriation system. In theory, they could convince local or state government to acquire a water right on the Poudre from a willing farmer or utility, then convert it to an instream flow right (held by the CWCB) or a recreational in-channel diversion right (held by a local government) to keep its recreational and wildlife benefits intact. Such benefits are protected in some states by the public trust doctrine, a legal concept which holds that certain resources should be held in trust by the government for public benefit. Yet that concept holds no legal sway in Colorado.

โ€œWe are not a public trust doctrine state,โ€ says retired Colorado Supreme Court Justice Greg Hobbs. โ€œWe are a prior appropriation state with a market. The Constitution provides that the water is owned by the publicย and is dedicated to the use of the people of the state subject to appropriation.ย Therefore, the public values protected by the constitution consist of the beneficial uses made by water rights owners.โ€

The graphic shows the existing dam and water level and how high the new dam will rise above the current water level. Image credit: Denver Water.
Wading through no manโ€™s land: Accounting for social costs

There are some good examples of water users paying for the public and private costs of their diversions. Under a 2012 pact called the Colorado River Cooperative Agreement between Denver Water and 17 Western Slope entities, the Front Range utility won support for its efforts to enlarge Gross Reservoir north of Boulder in exchange for helping to fund dozens of river improvements on the Western Slope. Among them: channel maintenance and habitat improvements on the Fraser River, a catchment basin that reduces sediment in the Fraser and cuts water treatment costs for Winter Park, and a whitewater park in the Colorado River at the mouth of Gore Canyon near Kremmling.

Yet some observers argue that there should be a more formalized way to charge for the public costs of diverting water. Aside from mitigation requirements imposed on water projects by state and federal environmental laws, the existing legal mechanisms for protecting public valuesโ€”instream flow rights and recreational in-channel diversion (RICD) rightsโ€”were introduced into Colorado water law relatively recently. (The legislature authorized the first instream flows in 1973 and RICDs in 2001.) That means that many instream flow rights have junior priorities and cannot be exercised when more senior rights are diverting, which can render them ineffective during dry parts of the year. As an added way to safeguard water-related public goods, the CSU economist Chris Goemans floats the idea of a public fundโ€”perhaps financed by a tax on the buy and dry of agricultural landsโ€”dedicated to preserving water-related public goods like open space and wildlife habitat.

โ€œThere are social values of water use that are not factored into the transaction when a farmer sells their water to a city,โ€ says Bovee. โ€œA farmer cannot charge a developer twice as much simply because his water is irrigating nice open land that will dry up once the water is gone. The developer will not pay extra to compensate for the loss of that public good.โ€

In extreme cases, in the absence of state intervention, the social costs of water diversions can undercut the economy of an entire region. A well-known example of this is southeastern Coloradoโ€™s Crowley County, where droves of farmers sold their water rights to the growing cities of Aurora, Colorado Springs and Pueblo between the 1960s and the 1980s, then took the profits, packed up and moved away. Because few of the proceeds from those water sales were reinvested in the community and the region lacked an alternative economy to fall back on, widespread unemployment ensued that persists to this day.

Photo of Crowley County by Jennifer Goodland

โ€œIf you looked at this transaction from a statewide perspective, it was a net benefit,โ€ Bovee points out. โ€œThe revenue from moving that water to the Denver Metro area was greater than the lost income from farming in the county. But there was a spatial problemโ€”Crowley County did not have a second and third economy to rely upon, so it was economically devastating, and there was huge poverty and social fallout. Open markets see nothing wrong with that transaction. But the state has to look out for the health of its rural populations and mitigate the downside in some way.โ€

The latest Seasonal Outlooks through May 31, 2024 are hot off the presses from the #Climate Prediction Center

The Four Great Surveys of the West — USGS

Click the link to go to the USGS website for the article:

By 1867, the developing industries were making radical demands on the Nation’s natural resources. Joseph S. Wilson, the Commissioner of the General Land Office, in his annual report written in the fall of 1866, assessed at some length the mineral resources of the public domain, and afterward stated that the proper development of the geological characteristics and mineral wealth of the country was a matter of the highest concern to the American people. On March 2, 1867, Congress for the first time authorized western explorations in which geology would be the principal objective: a study of the geology and natural resources along the fortieth parallel route of the transcontinental railroad, under the Corps of Engineers, and a geological survey of the natural resources of the new State of Nebraska, under the direction of the General Land Office. Looking back at that day’s work in 1880, Clarence King, Director of the U.S. Geological Survey, remarked that “Eighteen sixty-seven marks, in the history of national geological work, a turning point, when the science ceased to be dragged in the dust of rapid exploration and took a commanding position in the professional work of the country.”8

Clarence King exploring an active glacier on Mount Shasta, 1870. Photo credit: USGS

King was only 25 and 5 years out of Yale, where he had been a member of the first class to graduate from the Sheffield Scientific School, when he was appointed Geologist in charge of the Geological Exploration of the Fortieth Parallel. He had been a member of the Geological Survey of California when he conceived the idea of a geological survey along the route of the railroad then being built, had then interested the Engineers in the plan and secured their endorsement and that of the War Department, exhibiting political as well as scientific acumen. The Chief of Engineers told King he could expect to receive $100,000 to finance the work for 3 years and was authorized to engage two assistant geologists, three topographic aides, two collectors, a photographer, and necessary camp men. King chose as assistants well-trained young men, the geologists with graduate education in Europe, and planned the work in detail before taking the field.

Ferdinand V. Hayden, M.D., who had already established a reputation as a master of reconnaissance in the Upper Missouri country, was placed in charge of the survey of Nebraska, for which only $5,000 was available. Hayden, 38, was a graduate of Oberlin College in Ohio and Albany Medical College. Except during the Civil War years, Hayden had been enthusiastically exploring the northern Great Plains region since 1853 when James Hall, the New York State Geologist, had sent him and Fielding B. Meek west to study the geology and collect fossils. In 1856 and 1857, Hayden had accompanied expeditions led by Lieutenant G.K. Warren and in 1859, the expedition led by Captain W.F. Raynolds, both of the Topographical Engineers.

The Hayden survey in the Yellowstone area, 1871. Photo credit: USGS

Both the King and the Hayden surveys were successful. In 1870, the King survey, without solicitation, received additional funds for another 3 years in the field. The Hayden survey received additional appropriations in 1868 and 1869 for exploration in Wyoming and Colorado, and in 1869 was placed directly under the Secretary of the Interior. In 1870, Hayden presented to Congress a plan for the geological and geographical exploration of the Territories of the United States that looked forward to the gradual preparation of a series of geographical and geological maps of each of the territories on a uniform scale. With Congressional blessing the Hayden survey then became the Geological and Geographical Survey of the Territories under the Department of the Interior.

By that time two additional surveys had taken the field. On May 24, 1869, John Wesley Powell, Professor of Geology at Illinois State Normal University, and a party of nine men left Green River, Wyoming, in three small boats to explore the unknown canyonlands to the south and west. Powell’s expedition was privately sponsored–its only public support an authorization to draw Army rations–and the members of the expedition were a mixed crew of nonprofessionals.

Powell, 35, was the son of an itinerant Methodist preacher. His formal schooling had ceased when he was 12, and his life thereafter had been spent in farming, studying, teaching, and exploring the Midwest until the outbreak of the Civil War. He enlisted in the Union Army in May 1861 and remained in the service until the war was over. After the war, Powell became professor of geology at Illinois Wesleyan University and then at Illinois State Normal University. In 1867 and 1868, he explored the Rocky Mountains in Colorado and eastern Utah and became convinced that the unknown canyonlands to the southwest could best be explored in boats. In a trip fraught with hardships, Powell and five of the nine original members of the crew completed a journey down the Green River to the Colorado and through the Grand Canyon on August 13, 1869. In 1870, Professor Powell received an appropriation of $10,000 from Congress to make a second trip down the Colorado, being required only to report his results to the Smithsonian Institution. On June 10, 1872, Congress appropriated another $20,000 for completion of the survey.

The Powell survey on its second trip down the Colorado River, 1871. Photo credit: USGS

The second new exploration in 1869 was led by Lieutenant George Wheeler, Engineer Officer on the staff of the Commanding General of the Army’s Department of California (which covered California, Nevada, and Arizona). Wheeler, not quite 27, was a graduate of West Point in 1866 where he had ranked sixth in his class and won a commission in the elite Corps of Engineers. By 1869, exploration of the Colorado River and location of north-south routes across the Great Basin had become the most important projects of the Division of the Pacific, but when the Army learned of Powell’s planned expedition, exploration of the Colorado was postponed.

Wheeler Party Survey Members. Standing in the top row, sixth from the left, is George Montague Wheeler, the West Point graduate who in 1871 developed a comprehensive plan for surveying the territory west of the 100th meridian. National Portrait Gallery. Photo credit: Timothy O’Sullivan

In early June 1869, Lieutenant Wheeler received orders to organize and equip a party to make a thorough and careful reconnaissance of the country south and east of White Pine, Nevada, as far as the head of navigation on the Colorado, to obtain data for a military map and to survey the possibility of a wagon road and select sites for military posts. In 1871, the Engineers sent Lt. Wheeler to explore and map the area south of the Central Pacific Railroad in eastern Nevada and Arizona.

On his return from the 1871 expedition, Wheeler, convinced that the day of the pathfinder had ended, proposed a plan for mapping the United States west of the 100th meridian on a scale of 8 miles to the inch, expected to cost $2.5 million and take 15 years. Congress authorized the program on June 10, 1872, the day on which funds were appropriated for completion of the Powell survey. Hayden that year was given $75,000 for his Geological and Geographical Survey of the Territories.

Inevitably, conflicts developed between the Hayden survey, mapping the Territories of the United States, and the Wheeler survey, mapping the areas west of the 100th meridian. In 1874, Congress was provoked to a thorough discussion of civilian versus military control of mapping. In the testimony heard by the Congressional committee, much of it on the purposes and efficiency of the mapping, Powell credited King’s Fortieth Parallel survey with the most advanced techniques, which Hayden and he had later adopted. In the end Congress concluded that each survey had been doing excellent work for the benefit of the people and that there was sufficient work for both the Interior Department and the War Department for years to come. The Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution had requested an additional appropriation for the Powell survey, which Congress granted but transferred the survey to the Department of the Interior, where it was at first called the second division of the Geological and Geographical Survey of the Territories. Later, because of tension between Powell and Hayden, the Powell survey became known as the Geographical and Geological Survey of the Rocky Mountain Region.

#Drought news February 15, 2024: The largest improvements in the West occurred in #NewMexico and southwest #Colorado

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Last week, another round of Pacific storms swept across the West, bringing rain and mountain snow. Storms left over 3 feet of snow in the northern Arizona mountains before dropping more than a foot of snow in the mountains of Colorado and New Mexico. After a slow start to the year, basin snowpack in the Southwest has returned to near-normal conditions. Southwestern states saw improvements to short- and long-term drought conditions. In the Northwest, basin snowpack remains below normal with some of the worst conditions in the northern Rocky Mountains. The lack of snow led to the expansion of drought conditions. The wet pattern continued in the South and Southeast. In the last 30 days, rainfall totals of more than 10 inches (200 to 400 percent of normal) fell in parts of the South and Southeast.

The excess rain brought additional one- and two-category improvements to drought. The Northern Plains and Upper Midwest stayed relatively dry, with temperatures well above normal for the second week in a row. States in the Southern Plains saw pockets of improvements as long-term moisture deficits are finally showing signs of improvement. The winter storm that brought heavy snow to the Northeast on Wednesday occurred at the data cutoff for this weekโ€™s map…

High Plains

High temperatures averaged about 8 to more than 20 degrees above normal. Precipitation of less than 0. 5 inches fell across much of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas. Southwest Nebraska, Kansas, and eastern Colorado saw 1-category improvements to long-term drought areas. Short-term moisture deficits have largely been eliminated. A dry signal remains in Nebraska and Kansas at timescales longer than about 6 months and moisture deficits linger in deeper soil levels and ground water. Moderate drought (D1) expanded in western South Dakota, near the Black Hills, and northeast Wyoming due to a lack of snow and below-normal soil moisture levels…

Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending February 13, 2024.

West

Pacific storms swept across the West again this week, bringing rain and mountain snow. Over 3 feet of snow fell in the northern Arizona mountains. The mountains of Colorado and New Mexico saw over a foot in some locations. The recent storms brought some of the best snowfall totals to date for this yearโ€™s snow season. Basin snowpack in the Southwest has returned to near-normal conditions, prompting improvements to areas of moderate (D1), severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) drought. The largest improvements occurred in New Mexico and southwest Colorado. In the Northwest, basin snowpack remains below normal with some of the worst conditions in the northern Rocky Mountains. This lack of snow led to the expansion of D1 across southern Montana, northern Wyoming, central Idaho, and south-central Oregon. D2 expanded in eastern Idaho and western Montana. D1 improved in southern Washington and northern Oregon where above-normal precipitation over the last six months has helped reduce long-term moisture deficits…

South

Another round of wet weather brought 2 to 4 inches of rain to parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The continued wet weather left a band, stretching from east Texas to northeast Alabama, with rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches โ€” 200 to 400 percent of normal โ€”over the last 30 days. Much of the region saw 1- and even 2-category improvements to drought conditions. All exceptional drought (D4) has been eliminated. Moderate (D1), severe (D2), and extreme (D3) drought remain in the region where drought signals can still be found in long-term indicators. Despite the record-breaking rainfall over the last several weeks, deficits of 4 to 10 inches over the last six months remain over parts of many parts of the region. Groundwater levels and deeper soil moisture also remain historically low for this time of year in some places. West Texas was the only area where drought expanded. Moderate drought (D1) was added in response to growing long-term moisture deficits and impacts to soil moisture, groundwater, and vegetation…

Looking Ahead

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center forecast (valid February 15 โ€“ 17, 2024) calls for another round of rainfall to push into the West Coast, bringing heavy rain and high elevation snow to the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and the Northern Rockies. Polar air from Canada is expected to bring cold, dry air into the Northern Plains. Snow is expected across the Central Plains and Ohio Valley. Heading into the weekend, the extended forecast (valid February 17 – 21, 2024) calls for increased chances of multiple atmospheric river events for parts of central and southern California. Areas of lighter precipitation may spread across other parts of the west. The Upper Midwest and Northeast may see some snowfall. Storms tracking across the Gulf of Mexico may bring rain to Florida. The Climate Prediction Centerโ€™s 6-to-10-day outlook (valid February 20 โ€“ 24, 2024) calls for an increased probability of above-normal temperatures across most of the continental U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska. Temperatures across southern California, the East Coast, and northern Alaska are expected to be near to below normal. Increased precipitation is expected across California, the interior West, southern Alaska, and the Northeast. Much of the remaining CONUS, northern Alaska, and the Big Island of Hawaii are expected to have below- or near-normal precipitation.

US Drought Monitor one week change map ending February 13, 2024.

Romancing the River: The Appropriation Doctrine โ€“ and Its Appropriation — George Sibley (Sibley’s Rivers) #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Welcome to the Anthropocene. Credit: Sibley’s Rivers

Click the link to read the article on the Sibley’s Rivers website (George Sibley):

February 14, 2024

Last post, I laid out some reasons why the water mavens now engaged in mapping out Colorado River management strategies beyond 2026 โ€“ the year โ€˜interimโ€™ management strategies expire โ€“ should consider laying the Colorado River Compact to rest, archiving it along with most of the chain of subsequent compacts, rules and guidelines, legislated acts, minuted treaties and interim patches and props known as the โ€˜Law of the River,โ€™ and start over with a new compact that actually reflects contemporary river realities.

One of those reasons was the fact that the Compact had failed from the start in its primary goal: to provide for an โ€˜equitable division and apportionment of the use of the watersโ€™ that was not driven by the prior appropriation doctrine, which was leading the seven states into an appropriation โ€˜horse raceโ€™ in which California was already lapping the other six states.

Over the past years we have heard again and again, in speech and in print, that the Colorado River Compact is the โ€˜foundation of the Law of the River.โ€™ That is just not true. The foundational law of all the law governing use of the river is the doctrine of prior appropriation, which all seven of the compact states had adopted from the time they were territories, as a vehicle for the reasonably orderly distribution of essential water among water users in the arid and semi-arid lands. [ed emphasis mine]

That is what weโ€™re going to look into today โ€“ the doctrine of prior appropriation that is the foundation on which the formal and informal management of the river is built. (Fools tiptoe in where mavens fear to tread.)

The appropriation doctrine for the use of water in arid regions evolved literally everywhere at once in the arid West, a grassroots โ€˜common lawโ€™ that was only formalized, not created, when states wrote it into their laws and constitutions. โ€˜Common lawโ€™ refers to the โ€˜justiceโ€™ that people agree upon in resolving problems among themselves before there are local governments with sheriffs and judges to apply justice for them.

An appropriator of water could be anyone from an individual to a whole ditch company organized in a number of ways. An appropriation of water was created by just digging a ditch from a stream to put some water to use, and if you were smart posting a dated notice near it and starting a ditch journal at home. But no one needed to be asked for permission, and evidence of actual use amounted to proof of appropriation. โ€˜The right to divert the unappropriated waters of any natural stream to beneficial uses shall never be denied,โ€™ the Colorado Constitution says.

But as more people came to use the streams, priority of appropriation became an issue that had to be resolved between parties wanting to use the same water in the pre-law period. That was probably resolved reasonably amicably in many cases; but for the rugged American individualist yeomen invented by Thomas Jefferson and John Locke, it could get tense, even violent; and the common rule arrived at among the unruled, when neither side would yield, was that the first user had the better claim, and got his water first, with the subsequent users in ranked priority for what was left. Once county and state offices were set up, land and water appropriation claims could be officially filed, with law enforcement to back them, which made it all easier, but still it occasionally resulted in open competitive conflict, in a nation of rugged individualists.

Appropriation law has developed a reputation today of being terribly complex, but it is all founded on that simple default premise, easily understood even by children on the playground: first come, first served. Although it should be acknowledged that the appropriation and privatization of water from the commons is not a universally accepted โ€˜God-givenโ€™ practice.

It should also be noted that a sociopolitical philosophy underlay appropriation law as it first evolved in the arid lands. The โ€˜agrariansโ€™ โ€“ farmers and would-be farmers in counterrevolutionary retreat from the dominant Industrial Revolution back in the states โ€“ wanted to protect themselves from the speculators scouring the continent for investment opportunities for private capital. So their law insisted that no one could appropriate more water than he or she could put directly to use (or show โ€˜due diligenceโ€™ in installing the works to put the water to use). This prevented speculators from appropriating whole streams, to profit from selling or leasing to would-be farmers.

Gunnison River Basin. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=69257550

The emerging law also said that no riparian users could keep subsequent appropriators from access to the stream, even if it meant letting a junior user run a ditch through their fields. While appropriation was oriented toward the individual, this condition encouraged collaboration among users on a stream: the first userโ€™s โ€˜mother ditchโ€™ could be enlarged to carry water to other farms rather than cutting through the first usersโ€™ fields. My great grandfather James Short and his brother Frank started a floodplain ditch in the valley of the North Fork of the Gunnison River that, by the time they filed for a water right in 1889, had 21 farmers using the enlarged โ€˜Short Ditch,โ€™ all named in the decree.

The Short brothers did not create a formal โ€˜ditch companyโ€™ for their often-enlarged ditch, but when it came to settling the mesas and benches above the floodplains, requiring long expensive upstream conveyance ditches, ditch companies were almost necessary, formally registered companies with a large appropriation shared out among the funding members once the system was completed. Entrepreneurs also somehow skirted the speculation issue, purchasing dry uplands at a low price and running a long conveyance ditch to it in order to resell it as irrigated land. Incorporated and unincorporated communities appropriated water for domestic and industrial purposes โ€“ the City of Gunnison went from a sagebrush flat to a โ€˜Tree Cityโ€™ designation, thanks to a municipal ditch system along its streets.

For those interested in the agrarian roots of the prior appropriations doctrine, an excellent book on the subject is The Colorado Doctrine: Water Rights, Corporations, and Distributive Justice on the American Frontier by legal scholar David Schorr. It is all very straightforward, if not all as simple as the basic premise.

Complexity began to enter the system as users on the streams increased, and all local streams conflued with other streams, all with water users with rights in priority too; seniority in one watershed was not necessarily seniority in the downstream confluence with several watersheds.

State Engineer’s Office Division boundaries. Division 1 in Greeley: South Platte, Laramie & Republican River Basins. Division 2 in Pueblo: Arkansas River Basin. Division 3 in Alamosa: Rio Grande River Basin. Division 4 in Montrose: Gunnison & San Miguel River Basins, & portions of the Dolores River. Division 5 in Glenwood Springs: Colorado River Basin (excluding the Gunnison River Basin). Division 6 in Steamboat Springs: Yampa, White and North Platte River Basins. Division 7 in Durango: San Juan River Basin and portions of the Dolores River.

Hierarchies of state engineer and water commissioners had to compile all of that inter-watershed information and organize it by priority for entire river basins โ€“ eight major basins in Colorado alone. This was a formidable task in the pre-computer era; now we can look up water rights in minutes.Other complexities emerged, however, that began to change prior appropriation law โ€“ essentially a grafting of the urban-industrial mainstream game plans onto its agrarian roots. This complexity would have been precluded, or at least deferred, by a second simple rule proposed by the explorer-scientist Major John Wesley Powell. In his famously ignored 1877 โ€˜Report on the Lands of the Arid Regionsโ€™ โ€“ actually a detailed plan for an agrarian West โ€“ Powell proposed that, since the land was essentially worthless without the water, the right to use the water should โ€˜inherโ€™ in the title for the land โ€“ land and water bound together as a single property.

John Wesley Powell’s recommendation for political boundaries in the west by watershed

His recommendation was ignored everywhere. Instead, land titles and water rights evolved as separate โ€˜properties.โ€™ The right to just use a quantity of water became a property that could be bought and sold, like a piece of land or an automobile, separate from the land it nourished. And the sold water right kept its place in priority with the new owner; seniority went along with the purchase of the right to use the water.This freeing of water rights from their original purpose, alone, made the appropriations laws a powerful engine for the growth of great cities. Growing cities, with their concentrated wealth, could grow well beyond the limits of their own local water supply by buying water rights from users many miles distant and bringing the water to the city.

Laramie and Poudre Tunnel inlet October 3, 2010.

But an incident in two small tributaries of the South Platte River in Coloradoโ€™s Front Range led to further complexity โ€“ or opportunity, as the western city builders would have seen it. A little water was taken across a ridge from one watershed into another on Coloradoโ€™s Front Range. This was contested in water court by users from the basin of origin because they said it limited the future development of their watershed. The court, however, found that insufficient reason to deny this small โ€˜transbasin diversion.โ€™

But given that foot in the door, the door was pushed open for much larger transbasin diversions โ€“ transmountain diversions, even through the Continental Divide, with no legal responsibility on the diverter to compensate the basin of origin for water appropriated or purchased, and the resulting loss of a piece of its future (sine agua nada).

These โ€˜complexitiesโ€™ showed up in one form or another in the appropriation laws throughout the arid West. California, as usual, was first to really exploit it, bringing questionably acquired water a hundred miles from the Sierras to the Los Angeles Basin in the first decade of the 20th century. Transmountain diversions have been the cause of most of Coloradoโ€™s so-called โ€˜water wars,โ€™ with the urban-industrial metropolis east of the Continental Divide now taking half a million acre-feet annually from the West Slopeโ€™s Colorado River headwaters.

Colorado transmountain diversions via the State Engineer’s office

The โ€˜great and growing citiesโ€™ of the eastern plains also managed to undermine, or at least muddy, the appropriation doctrineโ€™s fundamental anti-speculation mandate, to only appropriate as much water as you could put directly to use. In the 1930s Denver leased and lined the pilot bore for the Moffat Tunnel, to move water through the Divide from the Fraser River on the West Slope. In 1937 the city filed for a Fraser water right that was almost twice as much water as they could put to use, planning to lease the rest to East Slope agricultural users until the growing city needed it.

The leaders of the newly created Colorado River Water Conservation District, protecting the West Slopeโ€™s water, challenged that additional water as speculation. The district water court judge agreed with them, and reduced the cityโ€™s claim accordingly. But Denver appealed the decision to the Colorado Supreme Court โ€“ which reversed the district judgeโ€™s finding, determining that โ€˜it is not speculation but the highest prudence on the part of the city to obtain appropriations of water that will satisfy the needs resulting from a normal increase in population within a reasonable period of time.โ€™

Map credit: AGU

The courts have gone back and forth for decades now, trying to pin down what constitutes โ€˜prudentโ€™ acquisition of water to meet โ€˜a normal increase in population within a reasonable period of time.โ€™ But the sprawling urban growth throughout the Southwest since World War II has essentially made distinctions between โ€™normal growthโ€™ and โ€˜speculationโ€™ meaningless. And most of that growth has depended on water brought in from distant places โ€“ some acquired from farmers, for whom water rights constitute a good retirement package.

The mythographers of money like to say that โ€˜in the West water flows uphill toward money,โ€™ implying an effortless magnetism for money. The truth is that large quantities of money come out from the concentrated wealth of the cities to suck up โ€“ at a considerable but affordable cost โ€“ the water (as well as other raw resources) to feed the citiesโ€™ growth.

One can argue โ€“ I might even โ€“ that the anti-capitalist appropriations law as conceived by the agrarian โ€˜counterrevolutionariesโ€™ was at best a holding action that could not forever hold off the juggernaut of the Industrial Revolution rolling across the continent. One can also point out that, despite all this, the farmers still own the rights to 70-80 percent of Colorado River water. But that is mostly just because the urban-industrial juggernaut hasnโ€™t needed more of it, yet; and in any case most of the agriculture in the Colorado River region is pretty thoroughly industrialized agribusiness. (Only in the headwaters tributaries does one still find a hereditary agrarian โ€˜agri cultureโ€™ โ€“ and it is feeling besieged.)

Those major โ€˜complexificationsโ€™ of the original simple idea of prior appropriation law probably barely scratch the surface of the ever more complex evolution of the prior appropriation doctrine, an evolution that goes on despite โ€“ or maybe because of โ€“ the fact that there is really no more water to appropriate from the exhausted commons.

There is, however, one more complexification that needs to be considered, to really understand where things are today in the Colorado River region, and that is the Colorado River Compact itself, and the rationale behind it that failed in trying to go around the appropriation doctrine rather than going through it.

But Iโ€™ve gone on long enough on this post; that will be for next time โ€“ with some thoughts on how we could maybe sketch out a compact that might work to address some of the challenges we face, now and beyond 2026, that the current Compact canโ€™t resolve. Stay tuned.

Colorado River “Beginnings”. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism

Wyoming Governor Gordon: Biden policies frustrate #Wyomingโ€™s budget plans and #climate ambitions — @WyoFile #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Gov. Mark Gordon spoke with Advance Casper members Feb. 13 2024 in Casper. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

February 14, 2024

Governor Mark Gordonโ€™s push for carbon capture at coal-fired power plants and for pumping planet-warming carbon dioxide underground to produce more oil isnโ€™t a climate crusade, he told business leaders Tuesday in Casper. Itโ€™s an acknowledgment of where policies outside Wyoming have driven markets.

Wyoming, the nationโ€™s top coal producer and among its top oil and natural gas producers, can help meet the goal โ€” and the market reality โ€” of reducing carbon emissions into the atmosphere, he said. But the state doesnโ€™t have to abandon its fossil fuels to do it. 

Instead, Gordon is on a mission to prove that integrating carbon capture with fossil fuel production and use is not only economically and technically viable, itโ€™s necessary to fill in the energy-availability gaps that renewable energy introduces into the western electricity grid when the sun doesnโ€™t shine and the wind doesnโ€™t blow.

And if people are honest about the full cost and complete carbon life cycles of both renewables and fossil fuel energy, more states will get on board, he said.

Gov. Mark Gordon visits with Casper business leaders Feb. 13 2024 in Casper. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

โ€œIf we can extend the life of these coal plants [by retrofitting them to capture carbon] for a period of time, we can meet that gap,โ€ Gordon told members of Advance Casper, the cityโ€™s business and economic development group.

Gordon has been aggressively sharing his energy vision of late. He spoke last fall at Harvard University, which drew a strong rebuke from Wyomingโ€™s far right. He also appeared on โ€œ60 Minutes,โ€ where the governor discussed making the state carbon-negative

One challenge, Gordon explained to members of Advance Casper, is that states that are demanding low-carbon or carbon-free electricity are not fairly distributing those costs, which include the loss of viewsheds and wildlife habitat from wind and solar farms in Wyoming. At the same time, those states donโ€™t want to help pay to capture carbon at Wyoming coal plants, despite their own carbon policies that push costs onto Wyoming ratepayers.

โ€œWe need to be able to have the grid pay for the desire to reduce carbon emissions โ€” thatโ€™s consumers acrossโ€ the West, Gordon said.

To that end, Gordon has been lobbying his counterparts in the Western Governors Association. Gordon was elected WGA president last summer, and he established โ€œDecarbonizing the Westโ€ as his signature initiative during his one-year tenure.

A sticker at Nerd Gas Co. in Casper. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

The initiative spans an all-of-the-above energy strategy, from nuclear and geothermal power to smarter siting of wind and solar development. Bringing some of those western state leaders onboard with his ideas for adding carbon capture to fossil fuels is still a challenge, Gordon said.

Meantime, the Biden administration โ€” although itโ€™s onboard with Wyomingโ€™s carbon capture research efforts โ€” continues to present existential threats to the stateโ€™s struggling fossil fuel industries through restrictive rulemakings to cut carbon emissions, the governor maintains.

State of the stateโ€™s energy

In his State of the State address on Monday at the Capitol, Gordon said the Legislatureโ€™s task of crafting a state budget for the next two years is particularly challenging under the weight of federal policies that the Biden administration continues to pile on fossil fuels โ€” an industry that has โ€œanchored our economy for over a century,โ€ Gordon said.

The weight of Wyomingโ€™s fossil fuel economic anchor has varied greatly in recent years, and itโ€™s the largest factor in setting the stateโ€™s budget โ€” in boom times and in bust. Although revenue from Wyomingโ€™s carbon-based energy industries rebounded after the economic shock of the pandemic, markets have begun to settle back into broader trends that point to aย continued decline in Wyoming coal consumptionย and the potential forย even more volatilityย for oil and natural gas.ย 

Gov. Mark Gordon gives his State of the State address Feb. 12, 2024, at the Capitol in Cheyenne. (Ashton J. Hacke/WyoFile)

What looked to be an extra $50.3 million in extra discretionary budget spending, according to Wyomingโ€™s revenue forecast in August, was dialed back in January to $37 million.

Biden administration policies โ€” such as oil and gas leasing reformsmethane emission reduction rulescoal power plant emissions and a restrictive proposal for energy development in the Bureau of Land Managementโ€™s Rock Springs Resource Management Plan โ€” are a significant driver of forecasted revenues and cause for a conservative approach to the stateโ€™s budget, according to Gordon. 

They also represent a federal policy agenda that is โ€œmisguided,โ€ โ€œwarpedโ€ and โ€œunwiseโ€ โ€” and, borrowing from a phrase by Gulf War military leader Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, they amount to โ€œpure, unadulterated โ€˜bovine scatology,’โ€ Gordon declared.

โ€œWyoming people know how these policies have left our nation more vulnerable to put our economy โ€” our very way of life โ€” at risk,โ€ Gordon said.

Mauna Loa is WMO Global Atmosphere Watch benchmark station and monitors rising CO2 levels Week of 23 April 2023: 424.40 parts per million Weekly value one year ago: 420.19 ppm Weekly value 10 years ago: 399.32 ppm ๐Ÿ“ท http://CO2.Earthhttps://co2.earth/daily-co2. Credit: World Meteorological Organization

Updates from the 2024 Colorado Water Congress Annual Convention — Andrew Teegarden (Getches-Wilkinson Center) #cwcwc2024

Click the link to read the article on the Getches-Wilkinson Center website (Andrew Teegarden):

February 6, 2024

The Colorado Water Congress (CWC) winter convention in Aurora, CO has been buzzing with excitement. The conference kicked off with a series of water related workshops. Gregor MacGregor, Director of the Acequia Assistance Project at the Getches-Wilkinson Center (GWC), moderated a panel on the future generations of water leaders. One of the panelists, Mary Slosson, a 3L at the Colorado Law school, talked about the uncertainties of a legal profession in the water space. All of the students on the panel echoed the idea that we need young leaders to help drive change and that doing so requires organizations to work with the next generation of leaders to remove the barriers to access a career in the water sector. While this was happening, Jackie Corday with Corday Natural Resources Consulting, gave a training on SB23-270, describing how members within the state can restore natural streams without needing to obtain a water right. Other notable highlights included Author Erica Gies presentation on her recent bookย Water Always Winsย which describes how to work with water rather than against it. The conference also jumped into the practical side of water by examining drought, resilience, and risk.

The first day of the conference ended with the POND casino night. The casino night has been a reoccurring event of the winter CWC convention because many of the conference topics center around risk tolerance. During the event, members of the Colorado Water Congress Board and I served as blackjack dealers for the night and helped people press their luck!

Day two of the conference focused on federal funding updates, legislative priorities, and how Colorado leaders plan to address our current issues. KC Becker, EPA Administrator for Region 8, talked about the funding available under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act. KC estimated that Colorado will see approximately $140 million dollars each year over the next three years to use for implementing water projects with an emphasis on disadvantaged communities. In addition, various mayors from across the state discussed how the legislature needs to begin integrating water planning and land use. Specifically, how replacing lawns and other non-usable grass with turf will help cut down on unnecessary water usage. Day two ended with a conversation between Dan Gibbs, the Executive Director of DNR and Phil Weiser, the Colorado Attorney General. They discussed the passion they share for the water community and the need for all water users to come together collectively and compromise to assure a water secure future for Colorado. Phil even gave a shoutout the the late Charles Wilkinson, Colorado Law Professor and namesake of the GWC, for the impact he had on both Phil and the larger water community.

The final day of the conference focused on cooperative action, what priorities states are looking to advance, and recognizing Kevin Rein with the Honorary Life Membership Award for his work as the Colorado State Engineer and Director of the Division of Water Resources. Members of the lower basin pointed to the 2007 guidelines, including the Drought Contingency Plan, and agreements with Mexico as major milestones in the cooperative effort to bridge the gap between the lower and upper basin. States also replied that we must begin looking for unique ways to save water whether that be infrastructure projects, cooperative agreements, or water conservation measures. Ultimately, it will take all of us to align our water usage and supply.

Clearly, a lot of ground was covered during CWCโ€™s winter convention. If there was one take away, it would be that we need to begin analyzing the risk of inaction. [ed. emphasis mine] If we keep waiting to take a stance or begin water infrastructure projects, we will only hurt Colorado and the Colorado River Basin in the long run. One way we can reduce the risks is by working with one another and allowing water to shape the future of our actions.

In #Coloradoโ€™s #SanLuisValley, paying for the water they use — John Fleck (InkStain.net) #RioGrande

Click the link to read the article on the InkStain website (John Fleck):

February 10, 2024

Folks in Coloradoโ€™s San Luis Valley are engaged in a bold experiment in western water management โ€“ charging farmers for the water they use. Jerd Smith [Fresh Water News] explains:

The challenge in the valley is that, with climate change inexorably chomping at the Rio Grande, and the groundwater used to replace the riverโ€™s dwindling irrigation supplies, there simply isnโ€™t enough water to keep farming all the acreage theyโ€™ve got up there.

The valley is operating under the same two constraints that we see up and down the river โ€“ less water flowing in, and requirements established in the Rio Grande Compact to pass some of what does come in to folks downstream โ€“ Colorado canโ€™t use it all, but must pass some water along to water users in central New Mexico. Those of us in central New Mexicoโ€™s โ€œMiddle Rio Grandeโ€ (the stretch from Cochiti through Albuquerque to Socorro) get to use some, but must pass some of on to farmers in Southern New Mexico. Under the deal now pending before the U.S. Supreme Court, the southern New Mexicanโ€™s (the Elephant Butte Irrigation District and Las Cruces area) must then pass some water across the border to people in Texas and Mexico.

PAYING TO REDUCE USE: PRIVATE V. PUBLIC GOODS

In each of those stretches โ€“ Colorado, central New Mexico, and southern New Mexico โ€“ we face the challenge of reducing use in order to meet downstream obligations.

In New Mexico, our approach to problems like this has been to treat the water as a private good, and pay its users to not use the water. This year, for example, a pipeline of money from the federal government, through the state, to our local water agency, the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, is paying irrigators $700 an acre to not irrigate.

The approach in the San Luis Valley is different. There, farmers who want to pump groundwater (recognizing that groundwater and surface water are an interconnected part of a single system, and that as river flow declines farmers have been pumping groundwater to replace it) have to pay for it. If you want to pump more, you have to pay more. And as it gets scarcer, the price needs to go up.

The legal terminology involving the notion of property rights here is tricky, but as a practical matter this suggests two very different approaches. In New Mexico, we are treating the water as the irrigators property, and paying them to forego its use. In Colorado, theyโ€™re treating it as public property, and requiring them to pay if they want to use it.

THE COASIAN SOLUTION

Students of the Berrens-Fleck Lab will recognize this as a version of the classic problem of assigning the property right, as laid out by Ronald Coase in his classic 1960 paper The Problem of Social Cost. Overuse of water in a climate change-constrained system is a classic โ€œexternalityโ€ โ€“ a burden pushed off onto others, rather than the people who get to benefit from the use of water. [ed. emphasis mine]

Coaseโ€™s answer โ€“ โ€œassign the property right!โ€ โ€“ has made his paper one of the most-cited papers in the history of papers, and won him a Nobel prize. Coaseโ€™s argument is that by assigning the property right, and starting from that point to figure out who pays and how much to solve the problem, we can converge on solutions. You can either make the people being harmed pay to stop the harm, or the people causing the harm pay to stop the harm.

We can, for example, require the factory polluting our river pay the cost of installing pollution control equipment. Or we can make the folks downstream, or the community as a whole, pay. Either way will work. The question of which approach we take is an ethical and political question.

Colorado has chosen (or at least is trying to chose โ€“ thisโ€™ll end up in court) one approach. New Mexico has chosen another.

CARTOON COASE

This is a cartoon of Coaseโ€™s argument. In the paper (which is a terrific read) heโ€™s making a more nuanced argument involving transaction costs. In both the New Mexico and Colorado cases, the cost of setting up the payment system makes actually carrying out the policies we need super hard. But the cartoon helps frame our approach to western water management challenges more broadly.

This image is fake. There also is no Large Container Ships Full of Money Act. I made that up too. Itโ€™s really the โ€œBuild Inflation Better Actโ€ or something, I can never get that right. Graphic credit: John Fleck/InkStain

The Colorado example โ€“ charge more to use water! โ€“ is rare. In the Lower Colorado River right now, weโ€™re paying farmers, through their agricultural districts, giant container ships full of money to reduce their use โ€“ the New Mexico approach. Weโ€™re treating the water as their property, and paying them not to use it. This is an ethical and political (and possible legal?) choice.

But the key difference between the New Mexico/Lower Colorado approach and the classic Coasian cartoon is whoโ€™s doing the paying. In both cases, at least for now, weโ€™re using Other Peopleโ€™s Money (OPM), via the recently passed Large Container Ships Full of Money Act (LCSFMA). Those of us in the West have somehow worked a racket where folks in Maine and Georgia and elsewhere are paying to bail us out of our mess. (To be fair, Iโ€™m sure weโ€™re bailing them out in some way too.)

The processes by which we have to figure out how to move all this money and water around โ€“ to pay people to not use water, or to charge them for the water they use โ€“ are a great example of the power of the deeper insights in Coaseโ€™s 1960 paper. Working out the ways things donโ€™t match up to Cartoon Coase is where the real value of the intellectual framework is found.

SOURCES AND METHODS

Two huge thanks. First, to Daniel Rothberg, whose Western Water Notes alerted me to the issue. And to Jerd Smith, for supporting and publishing the great water journalism we all need to understand these issues. If you can, Iโ€™d encourage you to contribute to one or the other or both, to support the fundamental underlying knowledge base we all need to move forward on climate change and western water issues.

The Rio Grande flows near Albuquerque as the sun rises over the Sandia Mountains. (Photo by Diana Cervantes for Source NM)

Despite Below Normal #Snowpack Recent Storms Help Improve Water Supply Outlook in #Colorado — NRCS

Click the link to read the release on the NRCS website:

February 7, 2024

A series of storms in early January help boost snowpack and precipitation totals across the state. In addition, an early February storm added to totals across all major basins bringing much of the stateโ€™s snowpack closer to normal for this time of year. Above normal precipitation was observed across the state in January ranging from 115 percent of normal in the combined San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan River basin to 149 percent of normal in the Arkansas River basin. Despite these gains, there is still room for improvement especially in the stateโ€™s southern river basins. NRCS Hydrologist Joel Atwood comments that โ€œColorado river basins received substantial precipitation in the first half of January, then recently in the first week of February, which has helped boost the snowpack. Despite these improvements, volumetric streamflow forecasts for most locations remain below normal.โ€ย 

February forecasts for streamflow volumes were generally below normal. Rivers draining the western side of the Continental Divide north of the combined San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan River basin have the most optimistic runoff forecasts. Nevertheless, rivers draining further west are less optimistic. The Sangre De Cristo Mountains have some of the worst streamflow outlooks in the state due to the low snowpack and precipitation in that area. The forecast point on Sangre De Cristo Creek has a particularly dismal forecasted streamflow volume, at 25 percent of normal. The Arkansas and the Upper Rio Grande River basins are forecasted to have 90 and 74 percent of normal, respectively. Atwood continued further โ€œThe water supply in the high country is still recovering from a dry fall, therefore more storms are needed to improve spring runoff volumes across the state. With El Nino conditions in the Pacific, there is some optimism that more moisture will be directed at Colorado in the next couple of months.โ€

Current reservoir storage across the state reflects streamflow runoff trends over the last several years.ย  In some cases, streamflow runoff trends were also impacted by reservoir management needs in the broader region. The Colorado Headwaters, Upper Rio Grande and the Arkansas River basins ended January with above normal reservoir storage, at 112, 119 and 113 percent of normal, respectively. The Eastern Arkansas and the combined San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan River basins have the lowest reservoir storage numbers in the state with 83 and 87 percent of normal, respectively.ย 

**For more detailed information about February mountain snowpack refer to theย February 1st, 2024 Colorado Water Supply Outlook Report.ย For the most up to date information about Colorado snowpack and water supply related information, refer to theย Colorado Snow Survey website.ย