From Circle of Blue (Brett Walton):
The mid-February forecast from the Bureau of Reclamation pegged the water year 2013 inflows to Lake Powell at 5.375 million acre-feet, or 53 percent of normal. Now, the March forecast is even smaller.
Regardless of how much water flows into Lake Powell, the Bureau is required under the basin’s operating rules to release at least 8.23 million acre-feet from the reservoir for downstream users. That means the reservoir will suffer a net loss of water and lake levels will drop.
By the end of September, forecasts show Lake Powell plummeting 9.8 meters (32 feet) in a 12-month period, matching the drop in elevation it suffered the year before.
If these forecasts hold, total reservoir storage on the Colorado River will be just 50 percent of capacity by the end of the water year in September, a level not seen since 2005, when Lake Powell dropped to record low levels.
More Colorado River Basin coverage here.