

From the Leadville Herald-Democrat:
Heavy snow in April and May have helped alleviate drought conditions in the Arkansas River basin and Colorado. However, that doesn’t mean the drought is over. That was the main message expressed by the four speakers at the Water Where? workshop on May 8. The workshop was sponsored by the Lake County Watershed Advisory Committee and Board of Commissioners.
Through April 1, the snowpack levels for the Arkansas Basin were looking dangerously low, said state climatologist Nolan Doesken. In fact, for most of the winter, snowpack levels were below last year’s levels. However, Doesken said, the heavy snows that started in mid-April and have continued into May helped boost the snowpack and put it near average levels. Doesken noted that the climate in the Arkansas Basin is highly variable and can change greatly over the course of a year or two.
For example, he said, above- average snowpack in 2011 pushed most reservoirs to above-average levels, but low snow pack in 2012 then greatly reduced those levels to below average. Right now, Doesken said, most forecasts indicate that drought indicators will persist in most areas of the state.
Parkville Water Manager Greg Teter echoed a similar sentiment. “The drought really isn’t over by any means,” he said. Like Doesken, Teter noted that variability of the snow pack in the area. “Every year has been so different for our water supply,” he said.
Teter spent some time explaining the Canterbury Tunnel, which the district brought into operation in November. Throughout its history, the district has had some issues with water supply around late winter, he said. Putting the tunnel online has helped alleviate some of those issues. “We’re so thankful to have that water,” Teter said.
Several speakers also touched on the state of local reservoirs. Kara Lamb, public involvement specialist for the Bureau of Reclamation, said that projections show that both Turquoise Lake and Twin Lakes should be just below their high-water marks sometime in May. Those reservoirs should stay around those levels throughout the summer, she added.
Lyle Whitney, water conservation specialist for Aurora Water, said that Aurora Water’s supply reservoirs are higher than last year, but still lower than average. The best-case scenario, he said, is that Aurora’s Water’s supply reservoirs, including Turquoise Lake, will be around 75 percent of normal at the end of the summer. “No matter where we are, it’s going to take several years to get back to normal,” he said.
From the Leadville Herald-Democrat:
Unseasonably cool and wet weather throughout April allowed Colorado’s snowpack to increase to near-normal accumulation totals. After an entire month of favorable storm tracks, May 1 snow surveys showed that the statewide snowpack percentage climbed to 83 percent of median from 74 percent of median measured on April 1, according to the USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service.
“Those wet storms really improved our water supplies, especially along the Front Range and Upper Colorado River basin,” said Phyllis Ann Phillips, state conservationist with the NRCS. April is typically the month in which the snowpack in Colorado begins to melt and the runoff season begins. This season, peak snowpack totals for the state were not reached until April 24, more than two weeks later than the long-term average date of peak accumulation. Statewide maximum accumulation totals for 2013 ended up being 80 percent of the normal seasonal maximum.
The moisture-laden storm systems that moved through in April were mainly focused on northern Colorado, while completely missing the southwest portion of the state.
From the Valley Courier (Ruth Heide):
Colorado Division of Water Resources Division 3 Division Engineer Craig Cotten reported to the Valley-wide water group, the Rio Grande Roundtable, yesterday that predicted annual flows on the Rio Grande and Conejos River systems are even lower this month than they were in April. If those predictions hold true, he added, that would make this the fourth lowest year in recorded history on both the Rio Grande and Conejos Rivers.
The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) decreased its May 1 annual forecast for the Rio Grande by 40,000 acre feet from what it had predicted on April 1, “a very big drop, and we were pretty low already,” Cotten said.
The new forecast from NRCS on May 1 for the Rio Grande was 295,000 acre feet, which is 45 percent of the long-term average, Cotten reported. The delivery obligation to downstream states based on the new forecast would be 74,000 acre feet. To meet that obligation the Valley is currently delivering 4 percent of the flow on the Rio Grande to New Mexico.
The current delivery obligation on the Conejos River system, however, is zero. As with the Rio Grande, NRCS on May 1 decreased its forecast for the Conejos River by 40,000 acre feet, down to 145,000 acre feet, which is 44 percent of the long-term average. If that prediction holds true, the Conejos will share with the Rio Grande in the fourth lowest year on record.
The obligation under the Rio Grande Compact for the 145,000-acre-foot forecast on the Conejos River system is 18,000 acre feet, which Cotten said will not be difficult to make, considering what has already gone downriver and what will be delivered during the winter months after the irrigation season is over.
“We are not currently delivering water off the Conejos,” he said. “It’s pretty much dry at Los Sauces.”
From the Cortez Journal (Luke Groskopf):
Early in 2013, the weather outlook for Southwest Colorado looked promising. Storms swept through Cortez at a steady clip. Snowpack levels in the San Juan mountains were the best in state. The parched Front Range, by comparison, was struggling. Conditions grew so bad that a 1,300-acre wildfire broke out near Fort Collins in the middle of March. While human-caused, the blaze was a grim reminder of how much destruction a careless human decision or isolated lightning strike can wreak during dry years.
But then relief came.
Late-season storms through April, and into May, have taken the edge off the drought in northern Colorado. As of May 3, the four northernmost river basins – Yampa/White, North Platte, South Platte and Colorado – were at or near 100 percent of average snowpack.
Temperatures have been kind to Colorado. Except in the very southwest corner and the San Luis Valley, temperatures were up to eight degrees below normal in April, according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center. The cooler air helped snow stick in the high country instead of melting quickly.
Agonizingly, the storms bypassed most of southern Colorado. From Cortez to Trinidad and into the Eastern Plains, towns have been left out to dry.
The Gunnison and Arkansas river basins sit at 75 percent of average snowpack, while the San Juan/Dolores basin is a meager 41 percent. The Upper Rio Grande is faring the worst, at 37 percent.
Local meteorologist Jim Andrus recorded only 0.22 inches of precipitation in April, about 25 percent of normal…
As of May 1, McPhee Reservoir’s active storage was only 49,000 acre-feet. Mike Preston, general manager for the Dolores Water Conservancy District, gave some context for how much projected inflow (runoff) has dropped. On Feb. 1, DWCD hoped for 205,000 acre-feet; at that level full-service irrigators would have, just barely, received their full water allocations, Preston said. By May 1, projected inflow plunged to 107,000 acre-feet, meaning only a 30 percent allocation supply.
“A month ago we were telling people not to count on any irrigation water in September. Now we’ll see how far we get into August,” he said. “It’ll depend how heavily farmers draw from their allocations early in the season, which is influenced on rainfall and other factors.”
From the Delta County Independent (Hank Lohmeyer):
The Cedaredge Town Board, acting on April 18, opted to move its water management regimen into official “Stage I” drought conditions. The move was expected following a very low 2011-12 water year that left reservoirs and springs that draw water from them in a low carryover condition into the current water year. Trustee Ray Hanson said, “We need to be pro-active on this.”
Uppermost in the town board’s consideration of drought conditions during an April 11 discussion of the subject was an abnormally low water equivalent content in the current Grand Mesa snowpack. Trustees noted the low water content at that time and low reservoir carryover during their April 11 work session. Also, the town public works supervisor recommended that the Stage I drought conditions be recognized now.
The trustees’ action took place just as a series of storm systems passed through the area raising hopes that water content might increase.
None of the proposed actions aimed at water consumers would be mandatory under the Stage I declaration, board members said. “It’s really just a voluntary kind of thing,” said Mayor Pat Means.
From The Norwood Post (Patrick Alan Coleman):
“It’s not looking so good in southwestern Colorado right now,” said CCC Research Associate Wendy Ryan. She explained that the CCC had considered recommending that the drought status for the region, currently categorized as severe, be downgraded to exceptional. However, due to a slight precipitation increase and below-average temperatures in late April, the CCC held off on recommending the change.
While the Front Range saw enough snow in April to boost the statewide average snowpack to over 90 percent of normal, the San Jauns saw little benefit from the weather systems that blanketed the eastern slope.
The most recent wet weather events in the region, which appeared the first full week of May, did deposit snow on the Uncompaghre Plateau and higher elevations. Unfortunately, the presence of dust layers from late-April storms, combined with a warming trend, will likely undo any benefits rather fast, Ryan said…
Recent data suggests that a predicted warming trend combined with dust will see the snowpack dwindling at a pace similar to that seen in 2012. With the snowpack only reaching 75 percent of normal in the region this year, the melt could go quickly. Compounding water woes is thefact that the region is seeing its second year of remarkable drought conditions. Melt from run-off will generally bolster the water supply in reservoirs and increase stream flow in average years. Due to last year’s dryness, the spring runoff isn’t reaching streams or storage…
While the snowpack and runoff has been poor, Ryan suggested that there was hope in the mid-to-late summer monsoonal flow. The three month precipitation outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center suggests that the region has a high probability for precipitation being below normal for the region through July. For the same period, temperatures had a high probability of being above normal.
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