Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Bob Berwyn):

March 27, 2025

Researchers comparing satellite measurements of the planet’s water with the wobble in its rotation identified a steady loss of global soil moisture.

Earth has lost enough soil moisture in the last 40 years to change the planet’s spin and shift the location of the North Pole, according to a new study published today in Science that tracks how human activities have disrupted the global water cycle. The persistent loss of water from land to oceans has dried out huge portions of every continent and may be irreversible, scientists describing the new research said this week.

“Large regions in East and Central Asia, Central Africa, and North and South America show pronounced depletion,” between 2003 and 2007, the authors wrote. When they extended the timeframe to 2021, the depletion of soil moisture grew large enough to cover those areas and also included Europe and the Eastern U.S.

“This study provides robust evidence of an irreversible shift in terrestrial water sources under the present changes in climate,” said Luis Samaniego, a hydrology researcher at the UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany. 

“The continents are drying out over time,” said Samaniego, who was not involved in the new study but wrote a related Perspective article in Science. 

In some regions, there would have to be well above average rainfall for 10 consecutive years to recover from extended periods of drought, he said.

“You can forget it. It’s not going to be like that. This is permanent, at least for our time scale,” he said.

“On a longer timescale, over millions of years…Earth could become as dry as Mars,” he added. “Earth could become a desert without atmosphere, but I don’t think that is where we want to live.”

The new study describes the “magnitude of the changes that we are causing,” he said. “Because at the end, what is creating this change in moisture is this minute molecule of CO2 that we keep pumping and pumping and pumping and pumping, and that’s creating an instability in the atmosphere.”

When the researchers combined satellite data about water in soils, sea level measurements and observations of precipitation, they found a “dramatic depletion in soil moisture.” Soils lost about 1,614 gigatons of water between 2000 and 2002—a big downward step in global soil moisture from which there has been no recovery. Instead, the depletion continued, with soils losing an additional 1,009 gigatons of water from 2003 to 2016. In comparison, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost about 900 gigatons of water from melting ice between 2002 and 2006. 

The findings suggest that this decline is primarily driven by shifts in precipitation patterns and increasing evaporative demand due to rising temperatures. As of 2021, soil moisture had made no recovery, the authors noted, adding that they saw little likelihood of recovery under current climate conditions. 

Co-author Dongryeol Ryu, an environmental hydrologist at the University of Melbourne, said that as the researchers examined the data, they saw a step-change in sea level rise in the early 2000s that looked unnatural.

“When something looks too strange or too new, naturally, scientists suspect there were some errors,” he said. “So we tried to replicate that using different measurements.”

When they removed all the possible contributing factors other than soil moisture from their calculations, the big jump in global mean sea level in the early 2000s remained, and matched the loss of soil moisture, with roughly 1 millimeter global mean sea level rise for every 360 gigatons of water lost from land, he said.

At some point, “We may see a drying of lakes and drying streams,” he said, although where the drying trend will lead isn’t clear. “Even if you have sufficient rainfall, they may continue to dry.”

He noted that, globally, funding for ground monitoring has been decreasing and the number of gauge stations declining.

“We need a community effort for that, not just one or two groups, because there are so many different types of monitoring stations,” he said. ”I hope we could put all these isolated data together to see if they are pointing in the same direction.”

Polar Motion

The redistribution of water can change the way Earth wobbles as it spins on its axis, so the team compared the “polar motion” that shows that teetering to their comprehensive soil moisture database, Ryu said. The changes in the Earth’s spin correlated with the changed distribution of water on the planet, with the wobble behaving as expected with less moisture in soil and more water in the oceans.

The research team included geoscientist Clark Wilson, professor emeritus with the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the University of Texas, who has been studying Earth’s rotation for 50 years, starting with his 1976 dissertation.

“In the early ‘70s, polar motion was just an oddity,” he said, “But now, everybody has a GPS receiver in their cell phone, and the whole GPS system and satellite navigation systems all require very, very accurate knowledge of polar motion.”

That’s led to a big increase in the number of people studying the Earth’s wobble, he said.

In the last 100 years, post-glacial rebound of land and loss of ice masses have shifted the exact location of the rotational axis by about 20 meters, he said. 

Knowing where the exact point of rotation is relative to other fixed points in space is the basis for all modern GPS navigation, including missile guidance systems, but scientists also realized early on that the Earth’s wobble also provided insights about global climate change.

“Global sea level tells you about total water volumes, but it doesn’t say where it came from,” he said. “Polar motion, on the other hand, is sensitive to geographical distribution of mass.”

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission launched in 2002 allowed for the observations of how the distribution of mass on the planet was changing, particularly through its ability to monitor terrestrial water storage by measuring changes in gravity.

“It’s a wonderful measurement because in the past, water storage in the soil was done by drilling a well and measuring the level of the water,” he said.

Those isolated measurements didn’t help to define a global water budget that included factors like evaporation and runoff, making it impossible to model planet-wide water cycles, he said. “GRACE has changed all that.” 

Global Drought?

Ryu, the University of Melbourne researcher, said it’s important to go back to the 1980s, when the average global temperature started increasing sharply, to understand the changes they measured in the new study.

Initially, scientists were puzzled that the vapor pressure deficit—a measure of how much moisture is in the air compared to what it could hold at a given temperature—did not immediately increase to match the rising temperatures, he said. 

“But starting in about 2000, the vapor pressure deficit started increasing very steeply, coinciding with our analysis period,” he said. 

That coincided with an “unusual” three-year decline of global precipitation from 2000 to 2003, leading to the decline in soil moisture that persisted through at least 2021. The two big declines were in the early 2000s and in 2015 and 2016, the second associated with a strong El Niño, a warm phase of a tropical Pacific Ocean cycle that shifts global rainfall patterns. Another strong El Niño could result in another big step down of global soil moisture, he said.

Regional impacts continue to be concerning, he said, highlighting a highly unusual and ongoing dry period in the Amazon.“If you look at the GRACE data over the Amazon, that’s really scary,” he said.

Drought, in many cases, is a slow-onset impact of global warming, he said.

“Not visible doesn’t mean that it’s not important,” he said. “We are very, very cautious about floods, earthquakes and wildfires, because they happen in the timescale of our life. The impacts are very visible, but drought is a creeping disaster.”

Most conventional drought measurements are based on precipitation and potential evaporative transpiration, which can suggest short-term recovery from drought conditions, but only have limited capability to detect the slow, long-term depletion of soil moisture. But their measurements of terrestrial water around the world found persistent declines, sometimes in steep steps.

“After a shock of rainfall deficits for a year or two, we used to be able to see recovery, but not anymore,” he said. “That is a very serious concern.” 

Southwest Hit Especially Hard

The global pattern identified in the new study has been emerging since the GRACE data has become available, said water researcher and co-author Jay Famiglietti, global futures professor at Arizona State University’s School of Sustainability. 

“It’s what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been predicting, which is wet areas getting wetter and the tropics and mid-latitudes getting drier,” he said.

The rate of drying in middle latitudes is higher, he noted, because of a positive feedback loop in which people use more groundwater as lands become more arid.

The implications of the research are especially profound in the Southwest, he said, where it shows the Four Corners region has been drying out for 30 or 40 years. 

“That really puts our food security at risk, and it also puts the economy of the Southwest at risk,” he said, noting the growing importance of the water-intensive computer chip and data center industries.

With most rain that falls in the Southwest already evaporating rapidly, and that rate increasing as temperatures climb, staunching the hemorrhaging of groundwater there is critical to the region’s survival.

“With a wet winter, you get a little recovery of groundwater, but then you get a big drop, and then maybe you get another little recovery and another big drop,” he said. “I liken it to a tennis ball bouncing down the stairs.

“It’s pretty much one way. We need to put the brakes on, understanding that we’re not going to get more [water],” he said. 

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

On March 18—for the second time in 5 days—a ferocious dust storm across the southern High Plains and neighboring regions led to sharp visibility reductions and increasingly stressful conditions for rangeland, pastures, and winter grains. The dust, lofted by high winds, was drawn into a storm system crossing the central Plains and upper Midwest, leading to widespread reports of “dirty” rain and snow. On March 19-20, significant accumulations of wind-driven snow occurred from parts of Kansas and Nebraska into northern Michigan, while locally severe thunderstorms erupted across the Midwest. More than a dozen tornadoes were spotted on March 19 across Illinois and Indiana. Farther east, however, parts of the Carolinas experienced a rash of spring wildfires, with the Black Cove and Deep Woods Fires near Saluda, North Carolina, collectively charring some 6,000 acres of vegetation and destroying at least 20 structures. Some of the fuel for fires in the Carolinas was provided by trees downed by Hurricane Helene about 6 months ago. Elsewhere, dry weather dominated the southern Plains and the Southwest, while late-season precipitation fell in northern and central California and the Northwest. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snowpack climbed nearly to 25 inches, essentially ensuring a normal seasonal accumulation. For the second week in a row, near- or below-normal temperatures dominated the West, although warmer weather arrived late in the drought-monitoring period. Conversely, warm weather prevailed in many areas east of the Rockies, with consistently chilly conditions limited to portions of the nation’s northern tier…

High Plains

Major storm systems continued to “undercut” the Dakotas and portions of neighboring states. Notably, severe drought (D2) was broadly expanded in South Dakota, where season-to-date snowfall totals were broadly at least 1 to 2 feet below average. With the northern Plains’ drought occurring at multiple time scales, current impacts include poor conditions for rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat. In contrast, late-season storminess across the northern Intermountain West, including much of northern and western Wyoming, led to improved mountain snowpack, more favorable spring and summer runoff prospects, and reductions in drought coverage and intensity…

West

Occasional precipitation continued to fall across roughly the northern half of the region, further improving high-elevation snowpack, as well as spring and summer runoff prospects. Drought improvements of up to one category were introduced from the northern Great Basin to the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, dry weather returned across the Southwest, following some late-season precipitation that was heaviest in parts of southern California but did not reach the southern Rockies. In fact, significant increases of all drought categories were introduced in New Mexico, parts of which have been affected by the same windy, dusty weather that has been plaguing the southern Plains…

South

Drought-related impacts further spread and intensified across parts of Texas and Oklahoma, amid March winds, dust, and dryness. In fact, two previously separate areas of drought were connected across Texas and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, little rain has fallen since mid-February across Arkansas and portions of neighboring states. While the short-term dryness has been favorable for spring fieldwork, rain will soon be needed across the mid-South for pastures, fall-sown small grains, and recently planted summer crops. By March 23, nearly one-half (46%) of the intended rice acreage had been planted in Louisiana, along with 36% in Texas. In Arkansas, 10% of the corn and 2% of the rice had been planted by March 23, while 7% of the winter wheat had headed. Pastures in Arkansas—rated 27% very poor to poor on March 23—were just starting to exhibit some stress from short-term dryness. On that date, rangeland and pastures in Texas were in much worse shape (71% very poor to poor), reflecting drought at multiple time scales and the impact of recent blowing dust…

Looking Ahead

Drought-easing rain across southern Texas will gradually shift eastward along the Gulf Coast. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 2 to 8 inches or more across the western half of the Gulf Coast region, with higher totals leading to flooding in southern and coastal Texas. Meanwhile, active weather will also prevail in the vicinity of a nearly stationary front draped across the northern United States. The front will separate cold air to the north from warmth farther south, with accumulating snow expected during the weekend from parts of the northern Plains eastward into northern New England. Meanwhile, Midwestern 5-day rainfall could total 1 to 2 inches, accomdpanied at times by locally severe thunderstorms. Elsewhere, persistent low pressure near the northern Pacific Coast will maintain showery, unsettled conditions from the Northwest to the northern Rockies, while mostly dry weather will persist in the Southwest, despite a cooling trend.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for April 1-5 calls for above-normal precipitation nearly nationwide, with northern and central California and the western Great Basin having the greatest likelihood of experiencing wet conditions.  Elevated odds of near- or below-normal precipitation should be limited to southern Texas.  Meanwhile, warmer-than-normal weather from the southern half of the Plains to the middle and southern Atlantic Coast should contrast with below-normal temperatures in the Far West and across the nation’s northern tier.

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Shannon Mullane):

March 27, 2025

The pressure is on: Colorado’s average snowpack statewide masks worrisome water conditions in the south, where water providers are banking on more storms to boost water supplies before snowmelt begins in April.

Much of Colorado’s annual water supply is stored in its winter snowpack, which builds up until early April when it melts and flows into soils, streams and reservoirs. Statewide, Colorado is headed toward that April 8 peak with 92% of its normal snowpack for this time of year. But conditions vary widely from north to south and within individual river basins, leaving some water experts concerned about drought, wildfires and reservoir levels, officials said during a Water Conditions Monitoring Committee meeting Tuesday.

One of those experts is Pat McDermott, who is based in the Upper Rio Grande River Basin in south-central Colorado, where the snowpack is 69% of the norm from 1991 to 2020.

“We need to keep having snow. This has been a dismal year for snowpack accumulation,” McDermott, a staff engineer for the Colorado Division of Water Resources, said Tuesday. “We had a whole month and a half — from Dec. 1 to Jan. 15 — when it hardly snowed a speck.”

In the northern half of the state, the snowpack is normal, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The Colorado Headwaters Basin, where the Colorado River begins; the Yampa-White-Little Snake combined basin, which supplies Western Slope communities in the northwestern corner of the state; and the South Platte Basin, which feeds rivers on the Front Range, are all in good condition.

The Laramie and North Platte combined basin was the only region with a higher-than-average snowpack, measuring about 103% of the median compared to the 30-year period as of Tuesday. There is a storm in the forecast this week — both small positive notes for an area dealing with persistent drought conditions after a dry summer in 2024.

The snowpack in these regions typically peaks between April 8 and April 26.

With these conditions heading into spring runoff, officials have an eye out for flooding. Flood risk from snow runoff might be suppressed in areas where the snowpack is lower than average, said Kevin Houck, chief of watershed and flood protection at the Colorado Water Conservation Board, which hosts the monthly water conditions meeting.

Some of these northern basins, like the Yampa-White-Little Snake basin, are heading into the summer with little drought and average reservoir levels in addition to the normal snowpack.

In southern parts of the state, it’s the opposite.

Experts are scouring the data. They’re gauging moisture in the soil, pre-runoff reservoir conditions and weather forecasts for the next three months.

Their goal is to assess whether regions are being dealt a bad hand.

A poor snowpack can mean less water flowing into rivers and streams. Some of that subpar runoff can get sucked up by dry soils. That leaves even less water flowing into reservoirs that are already low. Sparse storms in the forecast, and warm or dry conditions can just make matters worse.

These compounding factors elevate concerns about wildfire risk and raise the odds that farmers will have to reduce their crop output because they won’t have enough irrigation water.

That’s what happening in southern Colorado with more warm and dry weather on the horizon.

“That is not the kind of outlook that we like to see at this point either,” said Russ Schumacher, the state climatologist, in a presentation during Tuesday’s water conditions meeting.

Spotlight on the Upper Rio Grande

Down in the south-central region of the state, McDermott is worried.

At the summit of Wolf Creek Pass, the snowpack is 66% of normal. But down the pass toward Pagosa Springs and the rest of the San Juan River Basin, the snowpack is 45% of average.

“It’s worse this year at Wolf Creek than it was on the same date in 2018, so we’re using 2018 as a potential forecast point here in the Upper Rio Grande Basin this year,” McDermott said. “Of course, 2018 was a terrible year.”

That year, the snowpack peaked March 30 with 6.9 inches of liquid water in the snow. It normally peaks on April 3 with 14.4 inches, according to federal data. Runoff plummeted and ended a month early.

This year, the basin had 7.9 inches of liquid water in the snow as of Tuesday.

In the Upper Rio Grande River Basin, there are two positives to consider: The region had good precipitation heading into the winter, which locked more moisture into the frozen soils, and some of the smaller basins have a better snowpack than others.

On the east side of the San Luis Valley, the snowpack in the Sangre de Cristo mountains varies from 30% to 96% of normal in basins that are mere miles from each other. The snowpack near Great Sand Dunes National Park is at 6%.

“It looks like it’s going to be below normal over there on the Sangre de Cristos, but depending on which little basin you’re in, you may have a little better year than others,” McDermott said.

March, normally the region’s snowiest month, has not served up enough snow to make up for the dry winter. It’ll need more snow just to hold onto that before spring runoff starts, he said. The region’s snowpack typically reaches its peak accumulation April 3.

Climate models indicate less than the normal amount of precipitation across southern Colorado for the next week.

McDermott predicted that it will be one of the top 10 worst runoff seasons basinwide since 1900, during the water meeting Tuesday. The basin is heading into a subpar spring runoff with reservoirs that are already low, holding just 20% to 60% of their full capacity.

Sanchez Reservoir stored about 5,000 acre-feet of its 100,000-acre-foot capacity as of Tuesday. One acre-foot of water equals about 325,850 gallons of water and can supply roughly two to four households for one year.

“We’re a little hamstrung,” McDermott said. “We’re running what appears to be a dry year.”

The future outlook does not offer much relief to the basin or other regions of southern Colorado.

The two-week forecast shows higher temperatures across the state, and less-than-average precipitation in the southeastern region, Schumacher said.

Drought conditions are already creeping into the Western Slope, although drought conditions have improved along the Front Range, north-central Colorado and the Eastern Plains. By June, the wildfire risk is expected to be above normal for the southwestern corner of the state, Schumacher said.

“The news is probably tilted towards the bad side in terms of drought,” he said.

More by Shannon Mullane

Click the link to read the discussion on the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center website:

The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB).

Water Supply Forecasts

The mid-March water supply outlook for the UCRB and GB is generally below normal and summarized in the figure and table below. Snowpack, soil moisture, and future weather are the primary hydrologic conditions that impact the water supply outlook.

March Weather

The first half of March brought an active pattern across the entire CBRFC area, including the wettest period of the season for the LCRB. Most of the mountains of AZ and UT experienced above average precipitation, with more of a mixed bag for the mountains of CO and WY. Given the cold temperatures, the bulk of precipitation that fell over the high terrain fell as snow.

For context, Flagstaff, AZ has already experienced its 16th snowiest March on record (out of 126 years) with 35.6 inches of snow. However, if the season were to end today, it would also rank as the 22nd least snowy water year on record. A similar story can be applied to much of the rest of the LCRB – while March has seen a wet start, the season as a whole remains historically dry. Water year-to-date precipitation remains near normal across the northern basins of the GB and UCRB.

See the figures below for details.

Snowpack Conditions

UCRB mid-March snow water equivalent (SWE) conditions range between 65-115% of normal and are most favorable across northern areas including the Upper Green, White/Yampa, and Colorado River headwaters, and Gunnison basins. SWE is below to well below normal elsewhere across the UCRB, with the least favorable conditions in the San Juan River Basin. Mid-March observed SWE ranks in the driest five at several SNOTEL stations in the Gunnison, Dolores, and San Juan basins. UCRB mid-March snow covered area is around 99% of the 2001-2024 median. A recent Colorado Dust-On-Snow (CODOS) report indicates this is the least severe dust-on-snow winter to-date, with the period of record dating back to 2004.

LCRB mid-March SWE conditions tend to fluctuate more frequently and are difficult to provide statistics for due to percentages being computed using smaller values. With that said, LCRB SWE conditions are highly variable (45-170% of normal), with the poorest conditions in southwest UT and the most favorable conditions in central AZ.

GB March 1 SWE conditions range between 60-110% of normal and generally improve from south to north. SWE is generally near normal across most of the GB, with the least favorable snowpack conditions in the Sevier River Basin, where mid-March SWE is below the 10th percentile and ranked in the driest three on record at several SNOTEL sites. UT snow covered area is around 124% of the 2001-2024 median. SWE conditions are summarized in the figure and table below.

Soil Moisture

CBRFC hydrologic model fall (antecedent) soil moisture conditions impact water supply forecasts and the efficiency of spring runoff. Basins with above average soil moisture conditions can be expected to experience more efficient runoff from rainfall or snowmelt while basins with below average soil moisture conditions can be expected to have lower runoff efficiency until soil moisture deficits are fulfilled. The timing and magnitude of spring runoff is impacted by snowpack conditions, spring weather, and soil moisture conditions.

A very dry June-October 2024 across southwest WY and UT resulted in soil moisture conditions that are below normal and worse compared to a year ago. NW CO soil moisture conditions are near to below normal and similar compared to a year ago. SW CO soil moisture conditions are closer to average and improved from a year ago due to a wetter than normal monsoon (mid-June through September). Monsoon precipitation was near/below normal across the LCRB, where soil moisture conditions are below average and similar compared to last year. CBRFC hydrologic model soil moisture conditions are shown in the figures below.

Upcoming Weather

The next week will continue to bring cold temperatures and waves of precipitation across much of the GB and UCRB, while the LCRB dries out. Over the next seven days, expect 1–3 inches of precipitation for the northern mountains of the GB and UCRB. Lighter amounts are forecast elsewhere in the GB and UCRB, with little of anything for the LCRB. Beyond the next week, there is an increased chance for warmer and drier than normal conditions across much of the CBRFC area. See the figures below for details.

Click the link to read the article on the NIDIS website:

March 20, 2025

Key Points

• Winter was extremely dry for Arizona, New Mexico, southern Colorado and Utah, and parts of Wyoming.
• Arizona statewide snow water equivalent (SWE) for December 2024–February 2025 is comparable to 2006 SWE, which was the driest on record.
• Snow drought impacted spring runoff and future water supply for the Upper San Juan, Upper Rio Grande, and Gunnison River Basins.
• The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s outlooks favor warmer conditions for the whole region and drier conditions for Arizona and New Mexico, which may increase wildfire risk.

This update is based on data available as of Thursday, March 20, 2025 at 8:00 a.m. MT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving.

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

For the drought-monitoring period ending the morning of March 18, significant precipitation fell in parts of the eastern and western United States, while warm, dry, windy weather led to worsening drought across portions of the central and southern Plains and neighboring regions. In recent days, major spring storms have fueled an extraordinarily active period of U.S. weather, featuring high winds, blowing dust, fast-moving wildfires, severe thunderstorms, torrential rain, and wind-driven snow. Some locations experienced multiple hazards within hours, or even simultaneously. High winds and blowing dust were especially severe across the southern High Plains and parts of the Southwest on March 14 and 18, with some locations reporting wind gusts topping 80 mph and visibilities of one-half mile or less. In Oklahoma alone, mid-March wildfires tore across at least 170,000 acres of land and destroyed more than 200 residences. Farther north, wind-blown snow affected portions of the central Plains and upper Midwest, mainly on March 15—and again on March 19-20, early in the new drought-monitoring period. Meanwhile, a severe weather outbreak from March 14-16 spawned nearly 150 tornadoes from the mid-South into the eastern U.S., based on preliminary reports from the National Weather Service. Early reports indicated that the extreme weather resulted in dozens of fatalities, with causes of death ranging from wildfires to tornadoes to chain-reaction collisions. Elsewhere, occasionally heavy precipitation locally trimmed drought severity, with some of the most extensive improvement occurring in the Southeast…

High Plains

Significant changes were largely limited to Kansas, where expansion or introduction of dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) resulted from mostly warm, dry, windy weather. By March 16, the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicated that statewide topsoil moisture in Kansas was rated 47% very short to short. Elsewhere, some drought improvement was introduced in central Wyoming, largely based on favorable snowpack observations…

West

A pair of Pacific storms system delivered widespread precipitation, which was heaviest along the West Coast and in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada. Parts of central and southern California and the Pacific Northwest noted up to one category of drought improvement. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the water equivalency of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snowpack improved to nearly 25 inches by March 18, effectively ensuring a “normal” season. Notably, snowpack in the southern Sierra Nevada has greatly improved with recent storms, following an imbalanced start to the winter wet season during which much heavier precipitation fell in the northern Sierra Nevada. Although meaningful precipitation extended into the Southwest, snowpack deficits are so significant that any improvement in the overall drought and water-supply situation has been extremely limited. Additionally, harsh winds across the lower Southwest have led to extensive blowing dust in recent days, particularly across the areas of southern New Mexico experiencing severe to exceptional drought (D2 to D4)…

South

Dire conditions have developed in recent days across the southern Plains, where any benefit from last November’s record-setting rainfall is quickly diminishing. During major dust storms on March 14 and 18, wind gusts in Lubbock, Texas, were clocked to 82 and 78 mph, respectively. The March 14 gust was a spring (March-May) record for Lubbock—and marked the highest non-convective gust on record in that location. As the dust blew on March 14, numerous wildfires raged in Oklahoma, as well as neighboring areas in southern Kansas and the northern panhandle of Texas. The dusty scene was repeated on March 18, with visibilities as low as one-quarter to one-half mile widespread across western Texas. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, statewide topsoil moisture in Texas was rated 71% very short to short on March 16, while 71% of the rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor condition. For the week ending March 18, broad expansion of all drought categories was noted in Oklahoma and Texas. Farther east, however, heavy rain led to large reductions in the coverage of dryness and drought in much of Tennessee.

Looking Ahead

A low-pressure system moving into eastern Canada on Thursday will drag a cold front through the eastern United States. Locally severe thunderstorms may affect the middle Atlantic States on Thursday, followed by widespread Northeastern precipitation—rain and snow—lingering through Friday. Meanwhile, conditions across the nation’s mid-section will improve, following Wednesday’s blizzard from the central Plains into the upper Midwest and a widespread high-wind event. Still, an elevated wildfire threat will persist at least through Friday in parts of the south-central U.S., including the southern High Plains. Farther north, a pair of Pacific disturbances will move eastward near the Canadian border. The initial system will be fairly weak, but the second storm will intensify during the weekend across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Impacts from the latter system, which will persist into early next week, should include late-season snow from the Cascades to the Great Lakes region; another round of windy weather across the nation’s mid-section; and potentially severe thunderstorms across portions of the South, East, and lower Midwest.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for March 25-29 calls for the likelihood of near- or below-normal temperatures in most areas from the Mississippi River eastward, while warmer-than-normal weather will broadly prevail from the Pacific Coast to the Plains. Meanwhile, near- or above-normal precipitation across much of the country should contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in the Southeast, excluding southern Florida, and an area stretching from the Four Corners region to the central High Plains. Areas with the greatest likelihood of experiencing wetter-than-normal weather include southern Texas and the Pacific Northwest.

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Climate Center website (Peter Goble):

March 14, 2025

Thursday, March 20th marks the spring equinox – the first day of spring according to most calendars. But does spring really start on March 20th? I would argue the answer is “yes, no, and maybe.” March and early April is possibly the most confusing, yet most important time of year for Colorado climatologically.

Three Ways to Define Spring

The start of spring may be defined in several ways:

Astronomical Spring uses the sun’s position. The astronomical calendar divides the year using solstices and equinoxes. Our summer solstice occurs when Earth’s northern hemisphere’s tilt towards the sun is maximized. Our winter solstice occurs when Earth’s northern hemisphere’s tilt away from the sun is maximized. The spring equinox (late March) and fall equinox (late September) occur when Earth’s tilt is tangential to the sun, resulting in 12 hours of daylight everywhere.

Climatological Spring is simply the three-month period of March, April, and May. This definition doesn’t follow Earth’s orbit but aligns better with our temperature experience. Astronomical seasons can be counterintuitive: December 19th is fall, but March 19th is winter? Yet March 19th is typically warmer than December 19th in mid-latitude locations.

Phenological Spring focuses on natural changes – new grass, blooming flowers, and leafing trees. The National Phenology Network tracks leaf-out dates using satellite data. The 30-year average for the Front Range (Fort Collins to Colorado Springs) is between April 1-15. In eastern Colorado and southwestern valleys, it’s March 15-31. In the high country, it might be as late as May or early June. The phenological processes of spring vary yearly based on weather conditions.

Beyond These Definitions

These three definitions do not cover everything. Farmers might define spring by planting time – commonly late April or early May in Colorado. Others may focus on when snow stops falling. On average, the Front Range sees its last snow around the third week of April – earlier for the eastern plains and southwestern valleys, but much later for the mountains. Some areas, like the aptly named “Never Summer Range,” may see snow year-round. As recently as 2019, even the lowest elevations of eastern Colorado had snow as late as May’s fourth week, disrupting graduations, weddings, and “summer break” plans.

Alternative Approaches

I might define spring on the northern Front Range as starting when the average minimum temperature rises above freezing and ending when the average daily maximum temperature hits 80°F. PRISM data shows this works reasonably at lower elevations but less so for higher ones.

Climatologist Brian Brettschneider suggests defining winter as days in the bottom 25% of the temperature distribution, summer as the top 25%, and spring/fall as everything between. By this measure, Denver’s spring begins in March’s third week and ends in June’s second week. Check out his blog for more details.

The Fifth Season?

If we define spring phenologically using leaf-out dates (late March/April or later in mountains), what do we call mid-March? With sunset at 7:00 PM and warming temperatures, it doesn’t feel like winter, yet spring’s phenological processes have not begun. Perhaps it’s a fifth season – “wind season” (Colorado’s windiest time) or “water season” (crucial for our state’s water supply).

Colorado’s Most Important Season

This transitional period is extremely important for Colorado. Most of our usable water comes from mountain snowfall that melts in spring and flows into reservoirs. April is the wettest month for much of our high country, with March close behind.

When March and April are dry, mountain snowpack suffers and snow melts early. When they’re wet, snowpack is likelier to peak at or above average, and snowmelt comes later. This shortens our high-elevation fire season and leaves more water in our reservoirs through summer and fall.

So while we debate whether it’s technically spring yet, remember that March and early April – whatever we call this season – plays a crucial role in Colorado’s water security and ecological health for the entire year.

Click the link to read the article on the Grand Junction Daily Sentinel website (Dennis Webb):

March 9, 2025

Statewide snowpack, which becomes spring runoff that serves agricultural and municipal needs, stood at 90% of normal as of Friday morning, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service Colorado Snow Survey program. Accumulation amounts continue to show a distinct north-south split. Northern basins are performing better as is typical in winters such as this one that have La Niña climate patterns marked by colder-than-normal surface ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Snowpack in the Colorado River Basin headwaters in Colorado stood at 101% of median as of [March 7, 2025], the Yampa-White River-Little Snake basins were at 96% of median, and the South Platte Basin was at 106% of median. Farther south, the Gunnison River Basin was at 89% of median; the Arkansas River Basin, 76%; the Upper Rio Grande Basin, 66%; and the San Miguel/Dolores/Animas/San Juan basins, 69%.

Grand Mesa continues to lag behind in snowpack levels. An NRCS measurement station at Mesa Lakes shows snowpack at 81% of normal, but the Park Reservoir and Overland Reservoir stations farther east are at just 69% and 66% of normal, respectively. The current streamflow forecast for this spring and summer at Surface Creek at Cedaredge calls for flows of just 57% of normal.

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:

March 12, 2025

February Highlights:

• Temperatures were above average over much of the globe, particularly in the Arctic, but much below average over western Canada and the central United States.
• Global and Arctic sea ice extent ranked lowest on record for February.
• Twelve named storms occurred across the globe in February, which set an all-time record for the month.

Temperature

The February global surface temperature was 2.27°F (1.26°C) above the 20th-century average of 53.8°F (12.1°C), making it the third-warmest February on record. According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a 4% chance that 2025 will rank as the warmest year on record. 

It was the fourth-warmest February for the global land air temperature and the second-warmest February for the global ocean surface temperature. Global temperatures have cooled in recent months as a La Niña episode, the cold phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), developed. Global temperatures tend to be cooler during periods of La Niña in comparison to periods with an El Niño present.

February temperatures were above average across much of the global land surface, particularly over the Arctic, central Eurasia, southern South America and central Australia. Much of western Canada, the central United States, eastern Europe, the Middle East and China were colder than average. Sea surface temperatures were above average over most areas, while much of the central and eastern tropical Pacific was below average (consistent with La Niña), as were parts of the southeast Pacific, western North Atlantic and the northwestern Indian Oceans.

Snow Cover

The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in February was slightly below average. Snow cover over North America and Greenland was below average (by 50,000 square miles), and Eurasia was also below average (by 40,000 square miles). Areas of below-average snow cover include the central United States and much of Europe.

Sea Ice

Global sea ice extent was the smallest in the 47-year record at 6.16 million square miles, which was 770,000 square miles below the 1991–2020 average. Arctic sea ice extent was below average (by 430,000 square miles), ranking lowest on record, and Antarctic extent was below average (by 340,000 square miles), tied with 2022 for third lowest on record.

Tropical Cyclones

Twelve named storms occurred across the globe in February, which set an all-time record for the month. A record five named storms occurred in the southwestern Indian Ocean. Five named storms occurred in the Australian region, as well as four in the Southwest Pacific.

For a more complete summary of climate conditions and events, see our February 2025 Global Climate Report or explore our Climate at a Glance Global Time Series.