From the Aspen Daily News (Brent Gardner-Smith):

“At least so far this year, things are setting up in that typical La Nina pattern, said Chris Pacheco, the assistant snow survey supervisor with the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRSC). “It is not surprising that the northern portion of the state is doing better than the southern part of the state.”[…]

And according to [the Ski West Report], snowpack around the Aspen area is at 123 percent of average, based on an average of readings from snow monitoring stations on Independence Pass, McClure Pass, North Lost Trail near Marble and Schofield Pass. The Independence Pass snow-monitoring station, at 10,600 feet, is at 113 percent of average…

The area around the Steamboat ski area is 178 percent of the 30-year average. The areas around Keystone, Arapaho Basin and the Loveland ski area is 157 percent of average, while the snowpack around Copper Mountain and Breckenridge is 139 percent of average. The NRSC shows Crested Butte at 127 percent of average, Vail at 119 percent and Powderhorn near Grand Junction at 103 percent. But then the numbers fall toward the south. The area around the Monarch ski area shows a snow depth of 103 percent of average, Purgatory near Durango is at 100 percent of average, Telluride is at 98 percent and Wolf Creek is at 84 percent…

Snowpack in the Colorado River basin — from the headwaters in Rocky Mountain National Park to above Lake Powell — is 130 percent of average.

From The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (Dave Buchanan):

According the [NRCS report], the area around Steamboat has received 178 percent of its 30-year average snowfall to this date. The area around Keystone, Arapahoe Basin and Loveland ski area is 157 percent of average while the snowpack around Copper Mountain and Breckenridge is 139 percent of average. The Aspen area is 123 percent of average while Crested Butte registers at 127 percent of average, Vail at 119 percent and Powderhorn at 103 percent…The area around Purgatory near Durango is at 100 percent of average, Telluride is at 98 percent and Wolf Creek, which usually boasts one of the state’s deepest snowpacks, registers 84 percent.

More coverage from The Crested Butte News (Mike Horn):

As for the outlook in Colorado, Joel Gratz, founder of Coloradopowderforecast.com, said to expect a solid winter. “La Niña means good, good things for Colorado. From about Crested Butte and north, this season’s snowfall should total 100 percent to 125 percent of average. “For Colorado and the United States in general, La Niña favors areas that are farther north. I would expect Steamboat to do very well this year, as well as states north of Colorado.” In the central mountains, we’re right on the edge—and hopefully inside of the storm track. So far, so good. Early-season storms, according to Gratz, “are 100 percent typical. It’s actually uncanny how these individual early-season storms epitomize the average La Niña pattern. Most La Niña-type storms will provide good snow to the central and northern Colorado Mountains, with slightly lower amounts for the San Juans. “The [Elk Mountains] should do well and are a part of my ‘100 to 125 percent’ of average snowfall zone on the season. During the last La Niña winter [2007-2008], Irwin recorded over 1,000 inches of snow. Heck yeah!”

From the Summit County Citizens Voice:

Several Colorado ski areas have already picked up more than 100 inches of snow this season, with Steamboat leading the pack at 111 inches. Breckenridge has reported 109 inches of snowfall for the season…Vail also broke the 100-inch mark during the most recent wave of snow…Beaver Creek is at 73 inches for the season and has about 800 acres of terrain open for early December skiing…Copper has picked up 87 inches of snow so far, and an automate SNOTEL site at Copper is showing that the snowpack is nearly double the average for this time of year…Keystone year-to-date snowfall…[is] 78 inches…Just across the Divide, Loveland also broke the century mark, with 101 inches of snow.

Here’s the release from Colorado State University:

Scientists have gained a much better picture of how much precipitation comes from clouds thanks to CloudSat, NASA’s first cloud-profiling radar in orbit designed in part by former Colorado State University researcher Graeme Stephens.

Even the best technology in the world needs a backup plan: Scientists need to check the measurements from CloudSat against actual observations in the sky to ensure that their predictions and models are working.

Tristan L’Ecuyer, a Colorado State research scientist and one of the original crew working on CloudSat with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, spent five weeks in September and October flying over Helsinki, Finland, to measure precipitation in clouds at higher latitudes. These clouds produce light, steady rainfall that makes up a large fraction of the fresh water that supports life at higher latitudes. Helsinki gets extended periods – usually two months – of this type of light rainfall, L’Ecuyer said.

L’Ecuyer flew in a specially equipped plane – owned by the National Science Foundation – to compare measurements of cloud particles and raindrops against precipitation models and CloudSat observations.

The experiment, known as the Light Precipitation Validation Experiment, provided some of the first observational data on these types of clouds. Also working on the project were research scientist Matt Lebsock and graduate student Norm Wood, both from Colorado State, as well as scientists from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the University of Helsinki, Environment Canada and the University of Wyoming, which hosts the plane.

“Light rainfall at higher latitudes is an important source of fresh water that could be susceptible to climate change. It’s really important to be able to verify whether our model of future changes in light rainfall are on the right track or not,” L’Ecuyer said. “We’re trying to measure the whole vertical profile of the cloud that produces precipitation to help explain what we see from space with CloudSat. The CloudSat observations can then be used to test climate models globally.”

Measurements collected during the experiment show how these high-latitude clouds produce precipitation: Small ice particles at the top of the cloud collect into snow crystals just above the freezing mark. As those particles start to fall and the temperature warms above freezing, they collapse and turn into rain drops.

“We watched the ice crystals melt as we flew down through the clouds – you can’t see that with the naked eye,” L’Ecuyer said. “We’re studying the properties of the air, the humidity, temperature and the water content as well as how much rainfall actually landed.”

Funding for the project was provided through CloudSat and JPL.

Stephens, formerly at CSU and now at JPL, is the principal investigator on NASA CloudSat mission, which is one of the few university-led Earth science missions. CloudSat launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base near Santa Barbara, Calif., and reached its destination 438 miles above Earth in April 2006. Colorado State’s Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere – a partnership with NOAA – collects and distributes data from CloudSat to scientists across the globe.

From The Denver Post:

The National League of Cities is holding its Congress of Cities and Exposition at the Colorado Convention Center in downtown Denver through Saturday. Thousands of municipal elected officials and city workers are in town for seminars with titles such as “Regional Perspectives on Water Infrastructure.”

Say hello to the Clean Water Alliance. From their website:

The 501(c)(3) nonprofit Clean Water America Alliance (CWAA) is working today to explore the complex issue of water sustainability and plan for the future by improving public awareness that advances holistic, watershed-based approaches to water quality and quantity challenges. A broad cross-section of interests have come together through the Alliance to begin an important dialogue on the future – focusing on exploring and analyzing issues of critical importance to the nation’s ability to provide clean and safe waters to future generations, offering information and education to citizens and policy-makers on key issues, and recognizing organizations and individuals for innovation and outstanding achievements in the water quality and quantity arena.

Here’s the Grumbles’ announcement (Lorraine Lokin):

The Clean Water America Alliance welcomes Ben Grumbles, a dynamic water policy leader, as its new President beginning in December. A passionate civil servant, Grumbles served as Director of the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality and is the longest serving Assistant Administrator for Water at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). “The Alliance is uniquely positioned to make a big difference and improve water policy nationally and locally,” explains Grumbles. “I’m honored to have the chance to help unite, rather than divide, people and interests and make meaningful progress sustaining America’s most precious liquid asset.”

Grumbles has served on the Alliance Board of Directors since April 2009 and chaired the organization’s national dialogue series which concluded this past September. He succeeds Ken Kirk, who shepherded the Alliance for its first three years. Kirk will continue his role as the Executive Director of the National Association of Clean Water Agencies (NACWA). “New leadership is critical at this time to move the Alliance forward” says Kirk. “I believe strongly in the organization’s objectives and will continue to participate in other capacities going forward.”

While serving as the Director of the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality, Grumbles focused on three priority areas: conservation and reuse of water (e.g. wastewater recycling), clean energy and climate change (e.g. solar power, vehicle emissions, uranium mining), and collaboration (e.g. the Colorado River, the Mexican Border, e-waste recycling). While serving as the Assistant Administrator for Water at the U.S. EPA he led its National Water Program from January 2004 – January 2009. He also served as associate administrator for EPA’s Office of Congressional and Intergovernmental Relations in 2004, working with mayors, governors, and state and federal legislators.

Prior to EPA, Grumbles worked as a Senior Counsel for the Water Resources and Environment Subcommittee of the U.S. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and Environmental Counsel and Deputy Chief of Staff for the Science Committee. He also taught for 10 years at the Environmental Law Program of George Washington University Law School from 1994 to 2004. Ben has a BA degree in English from Wake Forest University in North Carolina, a JD degree from Emory Law School in Georgia, and an LLM (Masters) degree in environmental law from George Washington Law School in Washington, D.C.

Their Urban Water Sustainability Leadership Conference is next week.

Here’s a report about the prices of raw water and the current trends from Steve Maxwell writing for the American Water Works Association. It’s not hard to predict what would happen if the market moved to private industry. Here’s an excerpt:

Today, declining water availability has become a critical determinant of future growth in many areas of the West: Phoenix and Tucson, Ariz.; Las Vegas, Nev.; Denver, Colo.; Albuquerque, N.M.; and Southern California. As such situations develop, water is gradually transferred from agricultural irrigation to municipal consumption, and the prices of such water transfers are increasing sharply…

As conditions of water scarcity and stress continue to develop in more and more regions around the world, water will continue to exhibit rapidly increasing prices. As this discussion demonstrates, we have already seen these trends in Australia and the western United States—and the conditions are in place for this or a similar trend to occur in many other parts of the world. As price rises, there will be more and more incentive for improved utilization of water, increased recycling, and increased reuse of water as well as more focus on wiser allocation of water among competing uses. Further- more, as water’s value is increas- ingly recognized and as its price continues to increase, water seems likely to begin to evolve into a new financial asset class as well—an increasingly attractive opportunity to invest in. For example, as shown in Figure 4, the price of Colorado water rights is indexed against various other investment asset indexes from 1989 to 2006. A dollar invested in water rights in that state would have clearly returned more than a dollar invested in most any of the other standard financial investment cate- gories—the stock market, precious metals, real estate, or commodi- ties. Water is our most precious commodity, and its price will increasingly reflect that fact.

Here are this week’s notes from the Colorado Climate Center (Wendy Ryan/Henry Reges).

From the Longmont Daily Times Call (Scott Rochat):

Longmont logged just 3 inches of snow for November, a quarter of its usual 12-inch tally. But a couple of early rainstorms helped keep the water coming: 0.66 inches of precipitation for the month (vs. a 0.83 average) and 13.23 inches for the year (compared to an average of 13.57.) Now the bad news: It might stay dry. For a while. “It does fit the La Niña pattern,” said Times-Call weather expert Dave Larison. “If it continues like this, we might have to be watering lawns in January or February just to keep the moisture up.”

From the Summit County Citizens Voice (Bob Berwyn):

Copper Mountain‘s reading is 189 percent of normal, with Grizzly Peak at 158 percent and Fremont Pass at 145 percent of normal. The only sites that were a bit below average are at lower elevations, for example Summit Ranch, at about 72 percent of average, according to Blue River Basin water commissioner Scott Hummer. Across the Blue River Basin, the snowpack is at 136 percent of the long-term average for Nov. 30, Hummer said, emphasizing that it’s the April and May readings that are critical for summer water supplies.

The November snow totals only represent a small percentage of the seasonal totals, but at least the winter is off to a good start, Hummer said. Statewide, the Nov. 30 snowpack is close to normal, at 104 percent. the highest reading comes from the North Platte Basin, at 150 percent of normal, while the lowest reading is in the Rio Grande Basin, at only 56 percent of average. So far, precipitation patterns have been in line with La Niña-based predictions that call for better than average snowfall across the northwestern part of the state, with below average snow down south…

All the state’s northern basins have above-average snowpack readings, with the Colorado Basin at 131 percent of average. The farther south you go, the lower the totals, with the Gunnison Basin at 87 percent, the Arkansas at 74 percent and the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan Basin at 66 percent. The South Platte — the key basin to Denver’s water supply, is at 116 percent of normal, thanks to snows in the headwaters area. Beyond that, the entire Front Range, and the plains out toward Kansas are now listed on the drought monitor under a D1 status, for moderate drought conditions — another forecast effect of a La Niña winter.

Regular autumn snowfall helped Summit County streamflows stay near average after they dipped very low in late summer, Hummer said. For example, the Blue River below Goose Pasture Tarn was flowing at 10 cfs Tuesday morning, just 1 cfs below the 27-year average. The record minimum flow was 7,8 cfs in 1993, the record high was 21 cfs, in 1985. Some local stream gauges are frozen, but the Snake River, just below Keystone’s snowmaking diversion, was flowing at 16. 2 cfs Tuesday morning, close to average and well above a state-set minimum of 6 cfs.

From The Greeley Tribune (Bill Jackson):

The USDA has conducted a cooperative snow survey program since 1935…The program is a federal, state and local partnership directed by NRCS and includes not only Colorado, but Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming as well. Alaska and southern Canada are also partners. California has an independent program. The program, under federal leadership, was developed following the drought of 1934, when ag leaders requested USDA’s help in forecasting water supplies for the 1935 growing season. Since then, about 1,600 snow courses have been developed. Generally, they are about 1,000 feet long and are located in small meadows protected from the wind. NRCS specialists, such as [John Fusaro and Todd Boldt with the Fort Collins NRCS office], take measurements near the first of the month during the snowpack season. In the Poudre Canyon, there are four such courses, and in the Big Thompson Canyon, there are four more…

In 1977, the NRCS began development of a network of automated radio telemetry sites for collecting snow survey data. The so-called SNOTEL network provides the agency’s offices with daily or more frequent information on streamflow potential. That comes in handy especially during periods of flood or drought. There are half a dozen or more SNOTEL sites in Larimer County and several more in northern Colorado.