US Drought Monitor March 10, 2015

West Drought Monitor March 10, 2015

Colorado Drought Monitor March 10, 2015

Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

Two low-pressure systems brought significant rains to portions of the contiguous U.S. from the Southern Great Plains to the mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, most of the rest of the reporting stations around the country reported little to no precipitation, continuing the dry conditions across much of the western states. Moderate rains have brought much needed drought relief to Hawaii, which much of central Alaska remained without precipitation. The eastern portions of Puerto Rico continued to receive light rains, while western portions of the island remain dry…

Southwest

A few stations in New Mexico reported light precipitation (0.01 to 0.15 inch), but most of the Southwest remained dry this week. Westwide SNOTEL reports of SWE much below average across southwest New Mexico and eastern Arizona prompted the expansion of severe drought (D2) across Navajo and Apache Counties in Arizona and Catron County in New Mexico…

The High Plains, Rockies, and Intermountain West

No significant precipitation fell across much of this region during this past week, through the data cutoff time on Tuesday morning. The past week was slightly cooler than average for the Upper Colorado River Basin, and fairly seasonal in terms of precipitation. Another large slug or two of moisture like what was realized at the end of February will be necessary in order for basin-wide snowpack numbers to achieve median status by peak season. East of the divide conditions were much cooler than average and mostly dry with less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation across most of the region. On short timescales eastern Colorado is not at a deficit precipitation-wise with the exception of the northeast corner of the state, which is still holding onto average soil moisture conditions. With the cold temperatures keeping things dormant, lack of substantial winds, and recent snowfall events the recent dryness east of the divide this week should be relatively inconsequential. No changes were made to the drought depiction as precipitation was not far off of normal.

The lack of winter storms across the Great Basin prompted the intensification of drought conditions across eastern Nevada and western Utah. SPI values out through 9 months indicate conditions at least as intense as D1, with shorter time period SPI values indicating even more intense conditions…

The Pacific Northwest and California

The winter continues to be dry for much of this region as no significant rains fell this past week. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across northwest Oregon to near Tillamook. The rest of the area remained unchanged, but will be monitored closely in the coming weeks…

Looking Ahead

Through March 17, two low-pressure systems are forecast to impact the contiguous 48 states during the next 5 days. One is forecast to move across the northern tier while another is forecast to bring significant rains (more than 3.0 inches) to the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. These two systems are forecast to phase over the northeast, with precipitation spreading from west to east across that region. Some flow into the front range of the Rockies, with upper-level support is likely to bring some spring snows to southwest Colorado.

For the ensuing 5 days (Mar 17 -21), below median precipitation is favored along the west coast, and from the Great Lakes to the Southeast, while an upper-level trough supports above median precipitation over the Southwest, most of the Rockies, and portions of the southern and central Great Plains. Western and Southern Alaska are expected to experience an active weather pattern with above median precipitation.

Short and stark: 135 Years of Rising Temperatures in Less Than 30 Seconds via @BBGVisualData http://t.co/ykvgI1KUxQ

— John Sanderson (@JSandersonCO) March 12, 2015

From the Natural Resources Conservation Service (Brian Domonkos):

Two weeks of wet weather through the end of February and beginning of March have provided a significant increase in snowpack statewide and an even greater boost to those southern Colorado basins that are still ailing after several consecutive years of below normal snowpack. Despite substantial accumulations statewide, snowpack has not quite returned to normal, it was 87 percent as of March 1. Further investigation of SNOTEL data indicates that during the nine day period of February 20 through March 1, the state of Colorado received 2.0 inches of snow water equivalent, 181 percent of the normal for that timeframe. That is a 9 percent increase in snowpack percent of median. Preliminary numbers into March indicate an additional 7 percent increase between March 1 and March 5. On March 1, with 20 percent of the mountain snowpack accumulation season remaining, time is dwindling to close the gap and reach typical statewide peak snowpack levels. Brian Domonkos, Snow Survey Supervisor with the USDA Colorado Natural Resources Conservation Service – comments, “While not every major watershed in the state saw snowpack improvements this month, precipitation during the latter half of February was a highly beneficial to many water budgets across the state.”

The recent storm patterns were most beneficial to the Rio Grande watershed, receiving 300 percent of normal snowfall in the last 9 days of February. The South Platte and the Rio Grande both received a 13 percent gain over the course of February. In the South Platte River basin, snowpack, has not reached 2011 or 2014 levels at this point but conditions are still better than 1988, 1993, 1994 and above normal.
Statewide precipitation for the month of February was right at normal, a drastic change from 45 percent of average received during the month of January. Year-to-date statewide mountain precipitation totals increased 3 percent since last month. Colorado reservoir storage increased as well from February 1 to March 1 from 104 to 105 percent of average. Streamflow forecasts saw marked improvements most particularly for the state’s southern streams.

Brian Domonkos put the recent weather into perspective, “This storm could not have come at a better time. Without this storm, if the same weather patterns since January 1 had persisted through spring, mountain snowpack would have narrowly reached only the minimum snowpack peak.”

From the Vail Daily (Scott N. Miller):

A March 5 report from the Natural Resources Conservation Service indicates that a two-week spell of wet, snowy weather across Colorado did wonders for the snowpack — which provides not just good skiing, boarding and sledding but water supplies for the next year. Statewide, there was nearly double the snowfall usually received between Feb. 20 and March 1. That snowfall was most pronounced in the southern mountains, coincidentally, the part of the state that most needed a good wallop of white stuff.

GOOD NEWS AT FREMONT PASS

In and around Vail, snowfall in that two-week period wasn’t as substantial as it was in southern Colorado, but the valley still received plenty. Overall, the state received two inches of “snow water equivalent.” Snow measurement sites at Vail, Copper Mountain and on Fremont Pass all received 1.5 inches or more.

That boosted snowpack totals to near, or just above, their historic averages. At Vail Mountain, the total is about 90 percent of average. At Fremont Pass, the total is 117 percent of the historic average.

Diane Johnson, communications and public affairs manager for the Eagle River Water & Sanitation District, said the Fremont Pass numbers are perhaps the most important for the district. The district provides water and sewer service to customers from East Vail to Edwards, with most of those people living west of Dowd Junction. The district can pump water from one end of the district to the other, but the Eagle River provides most of the district’s water supply. With Fremont Pass at the headwaters of the Eagle, that snow field is critical.

MELTING POINT

What’s also critical is when the snowpack starts to melt — the later the better. Early warm weather can mean lower streamflows in late summer and fall. Early warm spells can also result in flooding.

Johnson noted that spring flooding in 2010 wasn’t due to snowfall, but early, sustained warmth. There was actually more snow in 2011, but a cool spring kept flooding to a minimum.

High-elevation snow also doesn’t mean much until it melts. That’s why the U.S. Drought Monitor, a service run by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, classifies the western two-thirds of Eagle County as either “abnormally dry” or in “moderate drought.”

Wendy Ryan, of the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University, said while snowpack numbers improved — greatly in some areas — the drought classifications didn’t change much due to the wet weather in February and early March.

If the current stretch of warm weather holds — the forecast for Vail shows warm temperatures and only a slight chance of precipitation during the next five to seven days — Eagle County and the state might be in some trouble. Snowpack numbers still need to be climbing.

But the good news is that climate predictions contain some moisture. Ryan said that the forecast into the week of March 23 shows a good chance of above-average precipitation for most of the western U.S. The 90-day forecast also holds a decent chance of above-average precipitation.

Also, for the past couple of weeks, temperatures have cooled from the record highs seen in early February, Ryan said.

That’s what’s going to be needed.

“We hope to see an above- average March and April,” Ryan said.

While there’s still about a month left in the ski season, Johnson said she understands those who are yearning for the seasons to change.

“But we need a lot of winter still,” Johnson said. “We need the snow up high, and it needs to stick around.”

From the Summit Daily News (Ali Langley):

“While not every major watershed in the state saw snowpack improvements this month, precipitation during the latter half of February was highly beneficial to many water budgets across the state,” said Brian Domonkos, snow survey supervisor with the USDA Colorado Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The four SNOTEL sites in Summit County measured snowpack in the Blue River Basin on Tuesday, March 10, at 109 percent above the median.

That’s a slight drop in the snowpack percent above normal for the date compared with readings from early February.

Statewide precipitation for the month of February was normal, a drastic change from the 45 percent of average received during January.

“Without this storm, if the same weather patterns since Jan. 1 had persisted through spring, mountain snowpack would have narrowly reached only the minimum snowpack peak,” Domonkos said.

Despite the accumulations, statewide snowpack has not quite returned to normal. As of March 1, it was 87 percent of the 30-year average.

Further investigation of SNOTEL data indicates that during the nine-day period of Feb. 20 through March 1, the state received 2 inches of snow-water equivalent, or 181 percent of normal for that time frame.

That 2 inches also represents a 9 percent increase in snowpack percent of median with an additional 7 percent increase arriving between March 1 and March 5. On March 1, with one-fifth of the mountain snowpack accumulation season remaining, snow surveyors said time is dwindling to close the gap and reach typical statewide peak snowpack levels.

STATE’S RIO GRANDE WATERSHED BENEFITS

The recent storm patterns were most beneficial to the Rio Grande watershed, which received 300 percent of normal snowfall in the last nine days of February. The Rio Grande and South Platte watersheds both received a 13 percent gain over the course of February.

In the South Platte River basin, snowpack has not reached 2011 or 2014 levels, but conditions are still above normal and better than in 1988, 1993 and 1994.

Forecasters predict a chance of snow Thursday and Friday for the High Country, followed by dry, warm weather through early next week.

Spring/Summer streamflow outlook: Near normal for S Platte, 70% on the Upper N Platte River. http://t.co/vJopjXNT6a pic.twitter.com/PyOgOi3tfk

— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) March 11, 2015

From The Mountain Mail (Brian McCabe):

While Arkansas River Basin snowpack is up to 101 percent of median as of March 1, Colorado remains below normal statewide, at 87 percent of median, the Natural Resources Conservation Service reported Thursday.

Wet weather the state received for about 2 weeks in late February and early March significantly increased the snowpack, especially the southern basins, which are still having difficulties after several years below normal, the NRCS stated.

In the 9-day period between Feb. 20 and March 1, Colorado received 2 inches of snow water equivalent, which is 181 percent higher than normal for that time period. That resulted in a 9-percent increase in the snowpack percent of median.

NRCS officials said preliminary numbers indicated a 7-percent increase between March 1 and 5, but as of March 1, only 20 percent of the mountain snowpack accumulation season remains.

“While not every major watershed in the state saw snowpack improvements this month, precipitation during the latter half of February was highly beneficial to many water budgets across the state,” Brian Domonkos, snow survey supervisor with Colorado NRCS, said.

The February storm benefited the Rio Grande watershed most, which received 300 percent of normal snowfall in 9 days. The South Platte and Rio Grande watersheds received a 13-percent gain.

While statewide precipitation for February was normal, January precipitation was 45 percent of average.
The year-to-date totals for statewide mountain precipitation increased 3 percent last month, while reservoir storage increased from 104 to 105 percent from Feb. 1 to March 1.

“This storm could not have come at a better time,” Domonkos said. “Without this storm, if the same weather patterns since Jan. 1 had persisted through spring, mountain snowpack would have narrowly reached only the minimum snowpack peak.”

From The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (Dennis Webb):

Recent storms have helped Colorado’s snowpack rebound from a dry January, especially in the southern part of the state.

The Natural Resources Conservation Service said Friday that the statewide snowpack was up to 87 percent of normal as of March 1, from 83 percent a month earlier.

It rose further, to 92 percent, by Friday.

The agency said that from Feb. 20 through March 1, the state received 2 inches of snow water equivalent, or 181 percent of normal over those nine days.

Brian Domonkos, snow survey supervisor with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Colorado Natural Resources Conservation Service, said in a news release, “While not every major watershed in the state saw snowpack improvements … precipitation during the latter half of February was highly beneficial to many water budgets across the state.”

That particularly goes for the Upper Rio Grande watershed, which during the last nine days of last month received three times the normal snowfall it gets in that time.

Southern Colorado basins have experienced several consecutive years of below normal snowpack.

The Upper Rio Grande basin had climbed to 87 percent of median on Friday, while the San Juan/Animas/Dolores/San Miguel watershed was still at 75 percent.

The Upper Colorado River Basin was at 97 percent Friday; the Gunnison, 84; the Yampa/White, 87; and the Arkansas, 103. The South Platte led the way at 112 percent of median, and the Laramie/North Platte was at 94 percent.

The conservation service said February’s precipitation was right at normal for the month, compared to 45 percent of average in January.

Statewide reservoir storage is at 105 percent of average, up a percent from Feb. 1, and the conservation service said streamflow forecasts also are markedly improved, especially in southern Colorado.

Upper Colorado River Basin reservoir storage was at 120 percent of normal on March 1; the Gunnison, 111 percent; the Yampa/White, 122; the Upper Rio Grande, 72; and the San Juan/Animas/Dolores/San Miguel, 89.

Despite the recent improvements, the Natural Resources Conservation Service noted that time is dwindling to close the remaining gap and reach typical statewide peak snowpack levels.

The start of March means that 20 percent of the mountain snowpack accumulation season remains.

From InkStain (John Fleck):

April-July runoff into Lake Powell, the big reservoir in the Colorado River’s “Upper Basin”, is forecast to be 71 percent of average, according to the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. There’s still a one in ten chance, if things get wet over the next month, that we could have an average year. But with another lost month, the chances on the wet side of the probability distribution no longer leave much room for enough excess runoff to bail out the river system’s shrinking reservoirs.

On the bad side, the “one in ten” forecast on the dry side, the worst case scenario, is for 48 percent of average.

From The Greeley Tribune (Kayla Young):

Gov. John Hickenlooper addressed Colorado’s agricultural community [February 26, 2015] in full Western style, donning a black Stetson cowboy hat for the annual Governor’s Forum on Colorado Agriculture at the Renaissance Hotel.

While the variation from the governor’s typical attire lightened the mood, the day touched on some of the most serious issues affecting the future of agriculture.

Water reigned as the topic of the day, carrying through not only Hickenlooper’s presentation, but also the day’s panel discussion led by 7News meteorologist Mike Nelson and the keynote speech by the governor’s water adviser, John Stulp.

Hickenlooper lauded the Colorado State Water Plan as vital to creating long-term security and better preparing the state for the challenges of climate change.

Stulp described the plan as achieving five major goals: fostering collaborative solutions to address the state’s looming supply gap, creating alternatives to the buy and dry of agricultural lands, protecting Colorado’s compact entitlements, pushing federal regulators to move more quickly on approval processes, and aligning state policies with dollars.

Stulp applauded the basin roundtable discussions that contributed to much of the legwork behind the water plan for bringing together diverse state interests that “would have otherwise only gotten together in a courtroom to sue each other.”

With Hickenlooper looking to expand international exports in agriculture, water security will play a key role in establishing confidence and capacity to move forward.

“Ag is one of the leading, if not the leading, industries in the state,” Hickenlooper said.

To bolster the sector further, he encouraged the passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership to expand export markets for beef and pork. The proposed treaty would expand trade routes for U.S.-made goods in Asia, the Pacific and Latin America.

Hickenlooper also praised the Colorado Agricultural Leadership Program for bringing new advocates into the sector, and the Western Dairy Association for its efforts to afford veterans opportunities in agriculture.

Earlier in the day, a lively panel discussion led by Nelson touched on national, statewide and local water challenges, addressed by panelists Robert Sakata, Carlyle Currier, Reagan Waskom, Greg Fisher and Bart Miller.

The panel captured the complexity of Colorado’s state water laws, which often translate to decades of work to conclude infrastructure projects. With concern over excess flows entering Nebraska and potential calls on the Colorado River by western neighbors, one audience member asked why the state is not able to create more storage areas.

Waskom, director of the Colorado Water Institute, said uncertainty often leads well-intended projects off course.

“We see participants pull out because they’ve been putting money in and they don’t know if they’re going to get the storage in the end,” he said.

Greg Fisher, manager of demand planning for Denver Water, said, while additional storage would help, the state needs to look at supply development holistically.

“Storage will help, but we must take an all-of-the-above approach: conservation, reuse, storage, and you have to do all of it now,” Fisher said.

The panel differed on its opinions regarding the overall water use from fracking operations.

Waskom said the estimated 20,000 acre-feet of water that goes into hydraulic fracturing on the South Platte represents a drop in the bucket for the capacity of the river. Most of the water comes from systems such as Greeley’s that permit multiple use, which avoids additional demand.

One acre-foot of water is enough to serve four homes for a year.

Bart Miller, water program director for Western Resource Advocates, said while 20,000 acre-feet may not sound like a lot, when compared to the enormous cost of creating storage for such water, the quantity does equate to a meaningful amount in the grand scheme of things.

The panel also turned to the high groundwater levels damaging homes and farmland around Gilcrest and LaSalle in Weld County.

While Waskom said he has been living this drama for a decade, the water expert could not provide an easy solution.

“This is a really hard one to solve without someone getting harmed,” he said. “This is a classic Colorado water fight.”

While unity served as a recurring theme, discussion over Weld’s groundwater headache served as a reminder that on many water issues, cohesive solutions have yet to be found.

From KJCT8.com (Kelsey Perkins):

Just weeks ago, the snowpack levels in Colorado were at abnormally low levels, but the past two snowstorms have brought much needed precipitation to the mountain basins. It puts many crop farmers in the clear.

900-acre Bernal Farms in Loma depends on the Upper Colorado Basin to grow wheat, alfalfa, corn, and sudan grass.

“It’s all a desert here in this area, so we need water from the Colorado River to divert, or there wouldn’t be anything out here,” said Bernal Farms’ Bryan Bernal. “All the irrigation water in the Grand Valley is diverted at the diversion damn in De Beque Canyon and it spreads out to a couple different canal systems from there.”

Unlike orchards, crop farms rely on snowpack and runoff water.

“The advantage to irrigating is more consistency,” said Bernal. “You don’t depend on weather patterns quite as much to ensure the survival of your group.”

The snowpack levels are on their way back to normal from an extremely dry February.

“In the middle and end of February we were really dry, especially the southwestern part of the state,” said National Weather Service Hydrologist Aldis Strautins. “But the last couple storms we’ve had in the last two weeks have really bumped us up into a better place.”

The recent storms brought the Colorado Basin up to 98 percent of normal from 89 percent, The Gunnison River Basin up to 86 percent from the 70th percentile and the Grand Mesa, where the valley gets most of their water, up to 71 percent of normal from the 50th percentile.

Water doesn’t start diverting from the Colorado River for farms until April 1st however, causing other potential issues.

“The thing we’re most concerned about is the fact that the winter has been warm and runoff has already started,” said Bernal. “That’s decreasing the levels of snowpack before we can have a chance to irrigate with that water.”

Click here to read the report.

Here is a climate roundup for February and the meteorological winter, and a spring outlook.https://t.co/RJtqACiIkI pic.twitter.com/TGZ1LEncEb

— NWS Grand Junction (@NWSGJT) March 6, 2015

Elusive #ElNiño arrives;
predicted to stay weak & have little influence on weather, climate http://t.co/Jt3GMwBqeZ pic.twitter.com/K8s9pDliPj

— NOAA Communications (@NOAAComms) March 5, 2015

Click here to read the discussion. Here’s an excerpt:

Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015.

During February 2015, El Niño conditions were observed as the above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the western and central equatorial Pacific became weakly coupled to the tropical atmosphere. The latest weekly Niño indices were +0.6°C in the Niño-3.4 region and +1.2°C in the Niño-4 region, and near zero in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions. Subsurface temperature anomalies increased associated with a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected in positive subsurface anomalies across most of the Pacific. Consistent with weak coupling, the frequency and strength of low-level westerly wind anomalies increased over the equatorial Pacific during the last month and a half. At upper-levels, anomalous easterly winds persisted across the east- central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative for two consecutive months. Convection was enhanced over the western equatorial Pacific and near average around the Date Line. Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions.

Compared to last month, several more models indicate El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index equal to or greater than 0.5°C) will continue throughout 2015. This is supported by the recent increase in subsurface temperatures and near-term model predictions of the continuation of low- level westerly wind anomalies across parts of the equatorial Pacific. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which contributes to progressively lower probabilities of El Niño through the year. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated. However, certain impacts often associated with El Niño may appear in some locations during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

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Statewide snowpack March 4, 2015 via the NRCS

Arkansas River Basin High/Low graph March 4, 2015 via the NRCS

Upper Colorado River Basin High/Low graph March 4, 2015 via the NRCS

Gunnison River Basin High/Low graph March 4, 2015 via the NRCS

Laramie and North Platte Basin High/Low graph March 4, 2015 via the NRCS

Upper Rio Grande River Basin High/Low graph March 4, 2015 via the NRCS

San Miguel, Dolores, Animas, and San Juan Basin High/Low graph March 4, 2015 via the NRCS

South Platte River Basin High/Low graph March 4, 2015 via the NRCS

Yampa and White Basin High/Low graph March 4, 2015 via the NRCS

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of snowpack data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

From The Aspen Daily News (Curtis Wackerle):

The 17-day storm cycle that just deposited up to 6 feet of snow on local ski resorts could be compared to the slumping baseball team that suddenly gets hot in the dog days of August. It’s been a good run, but to make the playoffs, you still have to win an insanely high percentage of your remaining games.

With measurable snowfall on all but three days since Feb. 15, snowpack in the Roaring Fork Valley reached 93 percent of average as of Wednesday, said Sarah Johnson, education and outreach coordinator with the Roaring Fork Conservancy, citing Natural Resources Conservation Service data. That’s up from 79 percent of average on Feb. 19.

But to hit the 30-year median — which Johnson points out is just average — snowfall through April 7, which is when the snowpack typically peaks, would have to be 134 percent of normal for the next month, she said…

The deficit is due to an abnormally dry period from New Year’s to Valentine’s Day. January, with just 5.5 inches of snow at the Aspen water plant, was the second driest on record.

Johnson also pointed out that not all snow storms are created equal, in terms of “snow water equivalent,” which is the key metric when it comes to river health in the spring, summer and fall. Some snowfall has a higher water content, while colder, drier storms store less water.

“It’s all about how much water is in that snowpack when it melts down,” she said. “The more water in that snow, the better off the rivers and the water supply will be.”

She said that as of now, the watershed’s snow water equivalent in around 12.5 inches, where the average peak is about 17 inches…

[Cory] Gates’ snowfall calendar is showing between 57 and 72 inches of snow at the ski resorts since mid February.

However, the pattern in the Pacific Ocean that kept the jet stream above Colorado and brought us all that snow appears to be shifting, and at least for the next week.

Roaring Fork Watershed snowpack is up to 92% of normal. http://t.co/u2I5rQf1l3 http://t.co/4FMN2nLMcP

— RoaringFkConservancy (@rfconservancy) March 5, 2015

From The Denver Post (Scott Willoughby):

In this era of erratic winter weather, the wild swings are not limited to temperature and precipitation. The roller coaster ride also extends to the spring runoff.

Whitewater lovers planning spring floats and fishermen attempting to assess conditions on surrounding rivers have already experienced an ebb and flow worthy of Dramamine merely by tracking the statewide snowpack graphs that predict Colorado’s surface water.

The 2015 calendar year rang in as one of the slowest starts for precipitation since 1992, according to U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service Snotel data. Colorado mountain precipitation during January fell well below the normal mark, amounting to only 45 percent of the 30-year average.

Recognizing that snowfall is the main ingredient for water in Colorado, heads hung low in the local boating community. But after one of the warmest, driest Januarys any nearby river rat cares to remember, an equally slow start to February ultimately resulted in record snowfall for Denver and respectable totals elsewhere in the northern portions of the state.

By Tuesday, the numbers saw a noticeable bump in each of Colorado’s eight major basins, leading to a statewide snowpack measuring at 91 percent of average. With mountain snow continuing to fall throughout the day, that number almost certainly increased overnight.

Unsurprisingly, to anyone who has spent the past few weeks in or around Denver, the South Platte River Basin leads Colorado’s snowpack statistics at 113 percent of average as of Tuesday. That bodes well for Front Range recreation as South Platte feeder streams such as Clear Creek, Boulder Creek and the Cache la Poudre River are poised to flow at traditional levels, and major reservoirs linked throughout the South Platte corridor are likely to fill.

The excess snowpack in northeast Colorado could also help bolster runoff in the Western Slope’s Colorado River basin now sitting at 98 percent of average because there is likely to be less demand for transmountain diversions, at least in the early season.

The same holds true for the Arkansas River basin, which saw snowpack measuring at 105 percent Tuesday and has enjoyed open water fishing along many stretches for months now. With March, traditionally the state’s snowiest month, just underway, Colorado’s favorite river for both boating and fishing would seem well situated to meet demand by the time snowpack levels typically peak in mid-April.

The state’s only other basin registering above 90 percent of average is the North Platte surrounding Walden with 91 percent snowpack as of Tuesday. Just to its west, the combined Yampa and White river basin measured at only 85 percent, although that number is expected to climb with snowfall in northwest Colorado this week.

Colorado’s upper Rio Grande basin offers a good news/bad news scenario. The bad news is that snowpack in the long-underperforming watershed remains at just 87 percent of historical average. The good news is that is a significant improvement from years past, and even recent weeks, when snowpack has lingered closer to 50 percent of average.

The neighboring Gunnison River Basin also climbed to 87 percent of average snowpack as of Tuesday, with snowfall still accumulating in the surrounding mountains. Despite seeing the largest snowstorm of the winter last weekend, the combined Animas/San Juan/Dolores/San Miguel basin in Colorado’s southwest corner remained the driest in the state, measuring at only 75 percent of average Tuesday.

All things considered, it’s a much better snow and water scenario than we were looking at as recently as two weeks ago. Just don’t be surprised when it all changes again in another few weeks.

From the Natural Resources Conservation Service (Mark Volt) via Sky-Hi Daily News:

USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Kremmling Field Office snow surveyors Mark Volt and Vance Fulton took the March 1 snow survey measurements during the last days of February, and even with the recent warm weather, the survey shows that the Upper Colorado River Basin is in pretty good shape!

Snowpack in the high elevation mountains above Middle Park now ranges from 78 percent to 128 percent of the 30-year average, with the overall average for Middle Park at 102 percent.

Last year at this time the area was at 141 percent of average. Snow density is averaging 25%, which means that for one foot of snow there is 3.0 inches of water, which is normal for March 1, though lower elevation/valley snowpack appears to be suffering.

Most of the snow courses around Middle Park have been read since the 1940s. Snow course readings are taken at the end of each month, beginning in January and continuing through April.

March is historically the snowiest month, and the April 1 readings are the most critical for predicting runoff and summer water supplies, as most high country snowpack peaks around that time.

For further information, including real-time snow and precipitation data for SNOTEL (automated Snow Telemetry) sites, visit http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/index.html.