Intermountain West Climate Dashboard: New Briefing Available — Western Water Assessment

Upper Colorado River Basin September 2016 precipitation as a percent of normal via the Colorado Climate Center.
Upper Colorado River Basin September 2016 precipitation as a percent of normal via the Colorado Climate Center.

Click here to read the briefing (Jeff Lukas, Ursula Rick, Ami Nacu-Schmidt, Klaus Wolter). Here’s an excerpt:


  • September was much drier than normal for Colorado, southeastern Utah, and southeastern Wyoming. The rest of Utah and Wyoming was much wetter than normal. Statewide, Colorado was in the 30th percentile for precipitation, while Utah was in the 91st percentile, and Wyoming, the 89th percentile.
  • Upper Colorado River Basin precipitation as a percent of normal for Water Year 2016 via the Colorado Climate Center.
    Upper Colorado River Basin precipitation as a percent of normal for Water Year 2016 via the Colorado Climate Center.
  • For Water Year 2016 that ended on September 30, all three states ended up slightly wetter than average, with Utah in the 69th percentile (105% of the 1981-2010 normal), Colorado was in the 69th percentile (103% of normal) and Wyoming was in the 55th percentile (103% of normal). Temperatures were unusually warm across the region, continuing the overall warming trend. Wyoming was in the 96th percentile for the water year, Colorado was in the 95th percentile, and Utah was in the 93rd percentile.
  • Since early August, drought conditions have eased in northeastern and north-central Wyoming, eastern Utah, and southwestern Colorado, while worsening and/or expanding in northwestern Wyoming, northwestern and central Utah, and north-central Colorado, with little overall net change for the region over the past two months.
  • Despite below-average inflows to Lake Powell for Water Year 2016, total Colorado River system storage as of September 30 was the same as one year ago, at 51% of capacity. Lake Powell was at 12.82 MAF, 53% of capacity. Lake Mead was at 9.63 MAF, 37% of capacity, and flirting with the 1075′ level that is a trigger for declared Lower Basin shortage.
  • While sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have recently cooled to weak-La Niña territory, the official ENSO status remains ENSO-neutral. ENSO model forecasts have shifted away from the previous consensus towards a La Niña event, with more than half of the models now forecasting ENSO-neutral conditions through the winter.
  • Lamar: 2016 Annual Meeting Arkansas River Compact Administration, December 9, 2016

    Arkansas River Basin via The Encyclopedia of Earth
    Arkansas River Basin via The Encyclopedia of Earth


    Fort Collins: Water and sewer rate hikes in the works for budget

    Fort Collins back in the day via Larimer County
    Fort Collins back in the day via Larimer County

    From the Fort Collins Coloradoan (Kevin Duggan):

    The recommended 2017-18 budget for Fort Collins calls for higher rates in all of the city’s utilities — electrical, water, wastewater and stormwater. Inflation and higher operating costs are driving the proposed increases, but so are long-range plans to build and maintain costly infrastructure needed to provide services to a growing community, said Mike Beckstead, the city’s chief financial officer.

    Although charges would vary, the proposed rate increases would add approximately $6.29 per month to the average residential customer bill in 2017, bringing average monthly payments to $166.69. Another $4.65 per month would be added in 2018.

    Overall rates for water service would increase 5 percent in 2017 and 2018, wastewater service would increase 3 percent each year, and stormwater charges would increase 5 percent next year but would not change in 2018.

    Those increases would help the utilities build up funds to pay for projects in 10-year capital improvement plans, said Lance Smith, strategic financial director for utilities…

    Reducing the water and stormwater rate increases from 5 percent to 3 percent would in 2017 save the average residential customer about $1.15 a month, Smith said.

    Without the 5 percent increases, plans to hire two full-time water conservation specialists and a construction inspector would have to wait a year, Smith said. A $1.4 million project to rehabilitate Mail Creek in southeast Fort Collins would not be funded.

    Utilities projects currently funded in the proposed budget include:

  • Replacement of aging water mains in high-priority areas: $1.9 million in 2017; $1.35 million in 2018.
  • Replacement of infrastructure in the city’s Water Quality Lab: $1.3 million each year.
  • Replacement of a raw water line running from the Poudre River to the city’s water treatment facility: $800,000 in 2017.
  • Replacement of equipment used to remove water for wastewater sludge and stabilize biosolids to be spread at Meadow Springs Ranch: $2.1 million each year.
  • Improvements to the oxbow levee on the Poudre River and to keep the Buckingham neighborhood out of the designated 100-year floodplain: $850,000 in 2017.
  • Construction of the third phase of a stormwater system between Lemay Avenue and Redwood Street: $1.6 million in 2017; $1.7 million in 2018.
  • The addition of 10 full-time employees in a variety of roles, including conservation programs: $793,000 in 2017.
  • […]

    The council is scheduled to adopt the budget in November. For online information about the budget, visit

    Tests from some homes in the Little Thompson Water District show elevated levels of lead

    Roman lead pipe -- Photo via the Science Museum
    Roman lead pipe — Photo via the Science Museum

    From The Loveland Reporter-Herald (Pamela Johnson):

    “It is still considered safe (to drink), but you want to follow the six steps to reduce exposure,” said Ken Lambrecht, operations manager with the Little Thompson Water District, which has 8,000 taps in its service area.

    Water providers are required to sample for lead in drinking water, and the most recent samples taken by the Little Thompson district came back with 11 that exceeded 15 micrograms per liter. When this happens, the water district is required to alert customers of the results and health risks of exposure to lead.

    Lead, though common in the environment, can cause health problems, including kidney and brain damage, and children are particularly susceptible to exposure.

    There are several sources of exposure, including paints, soil and plumbing. Lead can leach into drinking water through systems with lead pipes or copper pipes that have lead soldering, which are more common in buildings that were constructed in the 1980s.

    It was from these high-risk homes, built between 1982 and 1988, that the Little Thompson Water District took samples for its most recent testing. They collected 30 samples, which were sent to a laboratory with 27 additional vials of water that specific customers asked to have tested. Of those 57 total, 11 exceeded the 15 micrograms per liter sample. The overall results ranged from undetectable to the highest reading of 65.8 micrograms per liters, according to the water district.

    Only three of the 11 elevated samples, however, were taken after March 31, which is when the Carter Lake Treatment Plant changed some of its chemicals, Lambrecht noted. That, he continued, shows that those treatment changes appear to be working to control lead levels.

    The samples all came from single-family homes within the district, which spans from the south side of Loveland to the north edge of Longmont and from Carter Lake east to Evans in Weld County and also includes some customers west of Loveland…

    Customers of the Little Thompson Water District are advised to take…precautions, including:

    • If you haven’t had the water running for several hours, flush out the system by running cold water until it is noticeably colder. (Save that waster for plants or cleaning.)

    • Always use cold water for drinking, cooking and preparing baby formula. (Note: Boiling water does not reduce lead.)

    • Periodically remove and clean the faucet’s strainer and aerator and run water to remove debris.

    • Consider installing a water treatment device

    • Have a licensed electrician check your home’s wiring because, if grounding wires are attached to pipes, the risk of corrosion may increase.

    #ColoradoRiver: Interior Department Releases Final Environmental Impact Statement for Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management

    Glen Canyon Dam releases. Photo via Twitter and Reclamation
    Glen Canyon Dam releases. Photo via Twitter and Reclamation

    Here’s the release from the US Bureau of Reclamation (Marlon Duke):

    The U.S. Department of the Interior today released the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for a Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) for Glen Canyon Dam operations. The LTEMP will provide a framework for adaptively managing Glen Canyon Dam over the next 20 years with the goal of creating certainty and predictability for water and power users while protecting environmental and cultural resources in Grand Canyon National Park and the Colorado River ecosystem.

    “The Colorado River and Grand Canyon National Park are vital resources in the Western United States, and the spirit of cooperation and commitment to their protection and preservation is exemplary,” said Deputy Secretary of the Interior Michael L. Connor. “This work reflects the dedication and expertise of the Department’s Bureau of Reclamation, the National Park Service as well as our state, local and tribal partners who have worked through the complex challenges we face in protecting our finite resources.”

    The FEIS presents a thorough analysis of complex river processes and interests and identifies a preferred alternative that ensures Glen Canyon Dam will continue to meet its purposes while improving downstream resources and recreational experiences.

    This is the first Environmental Impact Statement for Glen Canyon Dam since 1995 and it marks an ongoing focus on balancing project purposes with natural and cultural resources protection. Today’s release culminates an open and transparent process based on the best-available science, extensive public involvement and active collaboration with stakeholders, cooperating agencies and traditionally associated tribes. Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation and National Park Service jointly led the FEIS completion in coordination with 15 cooperating agencies—including three federal and six non-federal agencies and six American Indian Tribes. In addition to addressing suggestions, concerns and comments from those cooperating agencies, the FEIS fully considered all comments received during a 122-day public review and comment period that ended on May 9, 2016.

    The FEIS was prepared in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 and evaluated potential environmental impacts of seven alternatives—including one no-action alternative that would continue operation as guided by the previous 1996 Record of Decision. The FEIS team identified a preferred alternative that improves river system conditions and minimizes adverse impacts to downstream natural, recreational and cultural resources while meeting obligations for water delivery and hydroelectric power generation. The preferred alternative continues high-flow experiments linked to adaptive triggers such as sediment and hydrology and includes fish conservation and management tools to improve fisheries and the aquatic food base.

    LTEMP and this FEIS support the ongoing focus of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, which includes a diverse group of 25 river system stakeholders. The FEIS team received letters expressing support for the preferred alternative from the seven Basin States, National Parks Conservation Association, Western Area Power Administration, Navajo Nation, river rafting guides and many members of the public.

    The FEIS Notice of Availability was published in the Federal Register on Friday, October 7. The Department of the Interior will issue a final Record of Decision following a minimum 30-day public review period. The Record of Decision will select the alternative that will be implemented and discuss all factors leading to that decision.

    The Final Environmental Impact Statement is available online at:

    Compact disc copies of the document are also available at the following locations:

  • J. Willard Marriott Library, University of Utah
    295 South 1500 East, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112
  • Cline Library, Northern Arizona University
    1001 S. Knoles Drive, Flagstaff, Arizona 86011
  • Burton Barr Central Library
    1221 North Central Avenue, Phoenix, Arizona 85004
  • Page Public Library
    479 South Lake Powell Blvd., Page, Arizona 86040
  • Grand County Library, Moab Branch
    257 East Center Street, Moab, Utah 84532
  • Sunrise Library
    5400 East Harris Avenue, Las Vegas, Nevada 89110
  • Denver Public Library
    10 West 14th Avenue Parkway, Denver, Colorado 80204
  • Natural Resources Library, U.S. Department of the Interior
    1849 C Street NW, Main Interior Building, Washington, DC 20240
  • #ColoradoRiver District annual seminar recap — @ColoradoWater #COriver

    Colorado Water Plan website screen shot November 1, 2013
    Colorado Water Plan website screen shot November 1, 2013

    From the Colorado River District (Martha Moore):

    Our ever-popular, one-day annual water seminar was attended by nearly 200, and, for the first time, broadcast live via our Facebook page. For those that participated – thank you!

    Special gratitude goes to our excellent speakers. Your contributions are greatly appreciated.

    For those unable to attend in person or via live feed, or those wanting to relive the awesome experience – please visit our seminar webpage to access the presentations or view the footage of the entire seminar.

    Next year’s event is scheduled for Friday, September 15, 2017 at Two Rivers Convention Center, Grand Junction, Colorado. Mark your calendar and plan on joining us.

    Grand Valley Drainage District looking to loans to accelerate project construction

    Bicycling the Colorado National Monument, Grand Valley in the distance via
    Bicycling the Colorado National Monument, Grand Valley in the distance via

    From The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (Gary Harmon):

    The district board this week directed staff to look into seeking low-interest loans from a state agency as it contemplates spending about $5 million for the Buthorn drainage system and prepares for improvements in the Appleton area to accommodate new development.

    “We need to investigate indebtedness” as one way to pay for the projects to be funded by the district’s stormwater fee, Chairman Mark Harris said.

    The Colorado Water Conservation Board will lend up to $10 million per project at an interest rate of 2.3 percent for up to 30 years, and officials with the agency have already opined that district projects such as improving the Buthorn drain could qualify for the loan program.

    Looking further into such a loan is a “piece of due diligence we probably should do,” Harris said.

    Diverting 40 percent of stormwater revenues, or about $1 million a year, to paying off debt could allow the district to tackle urgent projects, such as those required by road-repair projects, as well as those that rank high on the district’s priority list, General Manager Tim Ryan said.

    A project planned by the Colorado Department of Transportation could require $150,000 that’s not included in the district’s budget, but which could be otherwise accommodated under a borrowing program, Ryan said.

    The district has collected $2.2 million of the $2.7 million for which it sent out bills within its 90-square-mile area this year. The district board could consider turning over unpaid bills to a state collection agency as early as next month.

    Mesa County and the Grand Junction Area Chamber of Commerce haven’t paid their bills and have sued the district to prevent it from collecting them.

    A Mesa County District Court judge, however, rejected their request for a preliminary injunction this summer and the case is set for trial in June, though the district is asking that a judge rule without a trial.

    The county and chamber contend the charge is a tax that is being levied outside the requirements of the Colorado Constitution, while the district says it’s a fee.

    The court ruled it was “in the nature of a fee” in denying the preliminary injunction.

    The district’s stormwater charge is $3 per month for most residences and $3 per month for every 2,500 square feet of impervious surface, such as roofs, parking lots and driveways owned by businesses, local governments and nonprofits.

    #ColoradoRiver: Bridging science and policy for better water strategies — @ASU #COriver

    From Arizona State University (Click through for the photos):

    Keeping an arid region supplied requires balancing many interests; ASU’s experts are connecting research with decision makers

    Editor’s note: This is the third in a three-part series examining the work that ASU is doing in the realm of water as a resource in the arid West. Today’s focus in on the intersection of law, policy and academia.

    It’s 118 at Lake Mead on a July afternoon, but the thermometer on the boat’s depth finder says the lake is a cool 67 degrees. Naturally, you jump in. It tastes earthy and mossy, if mossy can be a taste, and ultimately it’s what 30 million people survive on.

    This is the stuff and place thousands of professionals are focused on. Law, economics, policy and science all underlie this bluish-green water. Some could argue that it begins with the river’s watershed in the Rockies of western Wyoming, but it’s here, where the water wizards of the Bureau of Reclamation determine their annual prognostication, that the West makes its stand.

    Taking action

    The Kyl Center for Water Policy, named after former Sen. Jon Kyl, a distinguished water lawyer, was created about a year and a half ago at Arizona State University to work on water-policy analysis and research. Sarah Porter, a Harvard-educated attorney and former state director of the Audubon Society, was hired as the inaugural director.

    She became intrigued with water when she introduced an initiative to protect riparian habitat for bird migration.

    “It got me more and more interested in water policy,” she said.

    On a Friday morning in August, as the first meeting of the Governor’s Water Augmentation Council convenes down at the Arizona Capitol, a monsoon rain pounds outside.

    “It’s raining outside; that’s awesome,” someone says.

    Gov. Doug Ducey created the council last October. All of Arizona sits around the table: cattle growers, cotton farmers, cities, wine growers, utilities, tribal nations and communities, home builders, businessmen, attorneys and water professionals. Porter is there representing the Kyl Center.

    They’ve been tasked with finding ways to augment water supplies. The state has been divvied into 22 areas. They are to look at each area, learn what the demand and supply imbalances are in each one, and come up with a solution to close that gap.

    Today, they’re talking about the communications plan and what they want to do in the current fiscal year.

    The message they want to get out is that Arizona is a “water success story” — in other words, we’re not California.

    It’s a message with two competing goals: We need to conserve water, but we’re well-supplied. It’s safe to move here and do business.

    “That bathtub ring (at Lake Mead) is not something only people in the Southwest pay attention to,” said Doug MacEachern, the state water department communications administrator.

    They’re looking for a balance between rah-rah and everything’s awful.

    “We need to tell people it’s going to cost more,” said Ted Cooke, general manager of the Central Arizona Project, the giant canal that shunts water from the Colorado River into central and southern Arizona. “It’s going to take more than new showerheads or toilets.”

    “Their costs are going to go up, and that’s real,” said Bas Aja, executive vice president of the Arizona Cattlemen’s Association.

    They create a subcommittee to look into funding for augmentation by using reclaimed and low-quality water. If there’s a shortage declaration on the Colorado in 2018, it’s likely that agriculture will need to make up the shortfall with reclaimed water. Porter volunteers to sit on the subcommittee. This is the rubber hitting the road.

    They create another subcommittee to look into a partnership with Mexico on building a desalination plant on the Sea of Cortez.

    They know people are aware of the value of water. That message is going to be amped up now.

    The most complex legal case in American history

    The way Arizona water law works is called prior appropriation. The first person to take water out of a river and put it to beneficial use gets a priority date.

    If you dig a ditch and divert water out of the river in 1890 and use 10 acre-feet to grow cotton, you have a right, dated 1890, to grow cotton using 10 acre-feet a year. Somebody comes along 10 years later, digs another ditch downstream of you to grow corn with 10 acre-feet — they have a 1900 date. If there’s only 2 acre-feet in the whole river, legally speaking, you, with the 1890 date, gets 2 acre-feet and the person downstream of you gets nothing. That’s the way water law works.

    The Little Colorado River and the Gila River are the two rivers that basically make up all of the surface-water rights in the state that aren’t the Colorado. Who has claims on them? Every kind of water user you can think of: big cities, small towns, large utilities, Native American tribes, little farms, big farms, cattle ranches, mines.

    And they’re all suing each other.

    It’s a giant court case that has been technically going on for 40 years, but actually goes back to territorial days. A class-action lawsuit usually involves thousands of people against a small group of defendants. This involves thousands of people fighting each other.

    “I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that it’s the most complex case in American history,” said Rhett Larson, the water attorney with the Kyl Center for Water Policy. “Yeah, it’s a complete mess.”

    A water market could improve Arizona’s water management. If a clearinghouse or escrow was set up, people could buy and sell water through that escrow for nature or cities or mining.

    “Once we have effectively priced water in a market, then maybe we’re reaching efficient water allocation,” Larson said. “Right now, we can’t do that because nobody knows who owns what.”

    Until the legal cases, collectively called the general stream adjudication, is resolved, Arizona can’t have an effective water market because people can’t buy and sell water until who owns what has been resolved. The Kyl Center works on the general stream adjudication every day. Ideally, the courts will ultimately make a decree. But not everyone is in a hurry to see the case cleared.

    “So a lot of the work that’s happening behind the scenes is to find ways, if not necessarily to resolve it, to at least allow small people who want to settle out of it and don’t want to pay their lawyers for decades, just to be able to settle out, take some water and leave — and for the others to at least have a faster, smoother process,” Larson said. “But there’s a lot of skepticism of that too, because if you’re going to get ground up into hamburger in the end — do you really want it ground up faster?”

    The center has a group of stakeholders who meet several times a month to negotiate. Larson said the work is promising. “We’ve made a lot of progress in the last 18 months,” he said. The Kyl Center acts as a mediator to avoid litigation.

    Before worrying about conserving water, people need to worry about understanding water, Larson said.

    “Imagine a resource as important as water, to not know who owns it,” he said. “A lot of these assured water-supply designations are based on assumptions on who owns what water that might not be true when the adjudication is decided.

    “So people are like, ‘Oh yeah, we have a hundred years of assured water supply!’ And you always feel like going, ‘You don’t know for sure that you own that water until the court says you do.’ … But I don’t know, I still hope that there’s something that will sort of stoke the fire in people’s willingness to resolve the stream adjudication.”

    Diamonds and water

    When economist Adam Smith wrote “The Wealth of Nations,” he wrote about the water-diamond paradox. Here’s a little tiny, shiny rock that people will pay out the nose for, but it does nothing. And over here is a substance that’s everything, but nobody wants to pay for.

    It’s something Larson wonders about.

    “I think it’s probably for a lot of reasons, partially because it falls for free out of the sky and people think, ‘Why should I pay for that?’ ” he said. “It’s partially because people think of water as a human right, as a fundamental right. I mean, how can you charge me for something that I absolutely need in order to live? And because, you know, in this country we tend to take it for granted. You turn on your taps and clean water comes out all the time, and you just assume this is a part of your life and it doesn’t cost much money.

    “For some reason we will pay quadruple the amount of its price for movie popcorn, but the idea that you would pay full value for your water is just crazy!”

    As the canal manager and the cattleman said at the water council meeting, pricing is on a lot of minds.

    “We need to price water in a sane way to communicate to people this is a high-value commodity,” said Pat Gober, a research professor in ASU’s School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning who studies water resources management, decision-making under uncertainty and urban climate adaptation.

    Water is super-cheap in Arizona. SRP charges $90 a year for irrigation. If you look at a Phoenix water bill closely, most of it goes to sewage fees, garbage fees and some taxes. Very little of it is actually water.

    The city of Phoenix Water Services Department spends $175 million annually on operations and management. Of that, $24 million is spent on actual water. The capital improvements budget is $130 million.

    “The cost is in the infrastructure,” water services director Kathryn Sorensen said. A section of the redwood water pipes that used to supply the city in the 1920s sits in the lobby outside her office in City Hall, as if to underscore the point. Phoenix has 7,000 miles of water lines spread across 540 square miles. (Now multiply that around the West.)

    “As those water lines age, they’re going to have to be replaced if we’re going to continue to have reliable water supplies,” she said. “The cost of that is enormous. We estimate, very roughly, that the replacement cost of the city of Phoenix utility — if you were just to go out and build it starting from scratch — is about $15 billion; $11 billion of that is in pipelines. It’s the cost of the infrastructure that’s going to matter in the future. It’s an enormous cost. And our infrastructure is aging.”

    Sorensen is an economist by training.

    “I’m intellectually fascinated with the idea and the questions around resource allocation: Who gets what? Of course the most valuable resource here in Arizona is water,” said the Phoenix native. “It’s a very natural fit for me. I knew at a very early age that this is exactly what I wanted to do. I’m one of those of people blessed to have their calling as a career.”

    Phoenix has tiered water rates. The more you use, the more you pay. There is also seasonal pricing; water costs more in summer.

    “That’s really one of the ways you’re going to get conservation,” Sorensen said.

    She knows the cost of water will go up.

    “Of course,” she said. “The cost of everything increases over time. When you talk about water, it absolutely will become more expensive, particularly Colorado River water.

    “The impact of that in terms of the end customer will kind of vary. Different cities have different supply portfolios. A city that is more dependent on Colorado River water and a city that is more dependent on Salt and Verde water might expect a different mix on the impact of those costs.”

    Agriculture, which uses 67 percent of the water in Arizona, according to the Department of Water Resources, began to pay more in the mid-1990s, when Grady Gammage Jr. served on the board of the Central Arizona Project.

    “Historically, water has been free to farmers,” Gammage said. “What they pay for is the delivery cost. In California, the Imperial Irrigation District is still delivering water to farmers at something like $6 an acre-foot. When I was at CAP, we started charging $30 an acre-foot. The questions were could farmers afford it or not?

    “The farmers’ view at that point was they had long-term rights to water; they owned the water. It was just getting delivered through the canal. But the contracts they had signed for that delivery required them to pay for the canal at the fully loaded cost of it, and they couldn’t afford that. So we re-cut a deal where they don’t have long-term rights to water anymore. Water is in a kind of limited spot market every year.”

    He once sat with a bunch of farmers who told him, “We have to be assured we’ll have water every year, and that the price will never vary.”

    “I said, ‘Are you ensured that the price of seed will never vary every year? Or that the price of insecticide will never vary every year? Or gasoline or diesel fuel?’ ‘Well, no, but that’s different. Water is different.’ No, it’s not. It’s a commodity, like those other commodities,” Gammage said.

    “So what the CAP does now is it tries to price agricultural water at the cost of getting it here, but on a sort of rolling average so the farmers know three or four years in advance how much water there is going to be, and what it’s going to cost, and that can be adjusted. That was hugely revolutionary. They all thought that would destroy agriculture in Arizona, and it’s worked out pretty well. The price had gone up fairly dramatically over time.”

    There’s a trade-off between how much you pay for water and how much you pay for food, said John Sabo, a professor in the ASU School of Life Sciences. We eat a lot of stuff because it’s cheap and available. We eat baby greens in the dead of summer because water is cheap.

    “That’s what farms are sitting on: this resource that’s only going to go up in value over time,” Sabo said. “It’s going to force them to become more efficient.”

    Farms may sell expensive water to cities and use that increased revenue to install things like drip irrigation or switch from low-value crops like alfalfa to high-value crops such as strawberries. We’re not going to get to the point where lettuce is $15 a head, though.

    “No, because people won’t eat it if it’s that expensive,” Sabo said. “Remember when avocados were $4 each? We only had guacamole during the Super Bowl. … I think it’s more that we’ll be focused on eating seasonal things that are cheap, but not all year round.”

    It’s not like farmers are acting like drunken sailors. In central Arizona, farmers are required by state law to use water-conservation practices like lining canals, laser-leveling fields and other best management practices. Farmers are legally required to be at least 80 percent efficient, according to the Department of Water Resources.

    “Agriculture has become more efficient,” Porter said. “We can grow a lot more food with the same amount of water we used 30 years ago.”

    Good news

    “We really have a lot of water (in Phoenix),” Porter said.

    Water usage in the city has fallen 30 percent in 20 years.

    “We serve 400,000 more people than we did 20 years ago, with the same water,” Sorensen said. “Tremendously successful.”

    Las Vegas pays residents to rip out lawns. Tucson has paid out $1.7 million on rebates for rain-harvesting systems. Not all those programs work. A lot of systems have been installed in Tucson, but there’s no decline in demand. In fact, they may be using twice the water they used before. Phoenix hasn’t paid for anything like that, but it’s hitting comparable demand reduction to cities in the region.

    “I’m a big fan of the way the city of Phoenix has dealt with landscape issues, which is primarily about education, not about discouraging landscaping through rate adjustments or about paying people to tear out grass,” Gammage said.

    What’s causing the drop in demand? Less turf, fewer pools being built, and more efficient appliances. One positive effect of the Great Recession Sabo pointed out was people couldn’t afford to buy new homes, so they remodeled. Remodels almost always involve kitchens and bathrooms, and new appliances are built to be water-efficient. Sorensen expects water use to continue to drop.

    “We’re very proud of the way our residents have really embraced a desert lifestyle,” she said. “That’s what it is. Phoenix focuses on the long game when it comes to conservation. We’ve been doing it full-force since the mid-80s, decades before other communities figured out this was important.

    “I know it sounds strange, but we don’t want our customers reacting to hydrologic events. We don’t want them reacting to the water levels in Lake Mead or the fact it’s been a 15-year drought, or any of those things. We want them to save water and use water efficiently because it will always be hot and dry here. That’s the mentality we need them to embrace. This is not a condition. This is not something to react to. This is how to live every day. That strategy has been successful in Phoenix.”

    In-home efficiency is becoming about as good as it gets, Gammage thinks. And tearing out irrigated tall trees and lush lawns would be a terrible mistake.

    “I think we need to be much more discriminating about the appropriate uses of water in the urban environment in the desert,” he said. “There are parts of metropolitan Phoenix where retaining the historic landscape — lush grass and trees — is important because it’s the heritage of Phoenix. … In the newer subdivisions we shouldn’t have grass in the front yards, where it isn’t used.”

    But in making decisions like that, whether in Phoenix or in other arid cities, there’s a dilemma, Gammage said: “You wind up allowing the lush landscape to be preserved for the affluent people, and the lower-income people don’t get it.”

    He’s a fan of Tempe Town Lake. It’s an amenity, a gathering place, and a place for recreation that is open to everyone.

    “It’s a good use of water,” he said, adding that it “creates ambience and gathering space in the urban fabric.”

    Phoenix has a huge amount of give when it comes to water supplies, said Porter, the director of the Kyl Center. The Salt River reservoirs are at half capacity, and not every SRP city uses all their supplies. We’re far from living on a knife’s edge, she said.

    “We talk about a supply gap, and we worry about where we’re going to get water, but we actually — if we stopped growing, and didn’t have any more demand, we wouldn’t have a water problem. Even with all the scary threats to our water supply out there, we wouldn’t be having conversations about a water-supply problem,” said Porter, who added that the issues are sustaining growth.

    Bull in a china shop

    One of the challenges is getting two of the main players — scientists and those making decisions in government — talking to each other.

    “I think, for some reason, and I don’t think it’s either side’s fault, policymakers and scientists aren’t communicating at all,” Porter said. “In a lot of disciplines there’s an expectation when they publish a paper in a scholarly magazine, someone at the legislature is going to pick it up and read it and act on it. Of course it’s absurd to think that if you think about how busy elected officials are and the demands on their attention.”

    There isn’t the beginning of the communication needed, she said, but “there are places at ASU where there are much more deliberate efforts to make those communications happen.”

    That place is the Decision Center for a Desert City. A research unit of the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability, the center conducts climate, water and decision research, and develops tools to bridge the boundary between scientists and decision makers. The 12-year-old center has worked hard to become an example of how academia can work with policymakers.

    Dave White is the director and principal investigator of the center.

    “This is a problem that we have faced and hopefully overcome to a large degree,” White said. “When university researchers conduct research independent of collaboration with policymakers, they often miss critical inputs or critical perspective into the research, that if they were aware of these perspectives they could vastly improve the relevance of the research.”

    For example, if a scientist talked to a policymaker before embarking on a study, they could set a geographic scope to a political decision-making unit. A study about the Phoenix Active Management Area instead of “greater Phoenix” “could potentially increase the relevance of the study,” White said. (Active Management Areas are five places identified by the state as being heavily reliant on groundwater.)

    Research also needs to meet the timing of policymaking. Agencies have deadlines and deliverables, just like the private sector does.

    All of which raises the question: Exactly what do public water officials want to know from academia? Where does the rubber hit the road? These six titles are a random recent sampling of what policymakers want to know, from papers written for the Decision Center for a Desert City.

  • neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress
  • regional relationships between surface temperature, vegetation and human settlement in a rapidly urbanizing ecosystem
  • determinants of small-area water consumption for the city of Phoenix
  • residents’ yard choices and rationales in a desert city: Social priorities, ecological impacts, and decision trade-offs
  • the impact of the Phoenix urban heat island on residential water use analysis of drought determinants for the Colorado River Basin
  • ‘We listen’

    Kelli Larson, an associate professor in the School of Sustainability, said she saw some of the dread policymakers have of scientists early in the center’s history.

    “There’s this new water center opening, and some of the language was to improve water resource decision-making, which, as a decision maker, you might be sitting there thinking, ‘We’ve been working on these issues for 10, 20, 30 years, and now there’s this new center, and they’re going to improve our decisions?’” Larson said. “It may burn relationships.”

    The majority of the center’s “clients” tend to be technical staff at various agencies: water providers, planners, utility managers. Larson thinks about what they need and the policy implications. The center is proactive; it goes to decision makers, so they don’t have to navigate ASU to find the right people. Center staff — some of whom are former policymakers themselves — ask them what they’re working on, what their concerns are, what questions they have.

    “It takes time to build those relationships, to build trust,” Larson said. “We’ve been quite successful with that. Part of why we’ve been successful at that is because we listen. I see the planners and the decision makers as experts in their own right. They’re not scientists per se, they’re not researchers, they’re not academics, but oftentimes they do do their own form of research, and they have their own knowledge base. There’s a lot they can offer to our understanding and insights, including informing our research agendas.

    “When I first got here, I felt like we were outsiders trying to enter the water community, and now I feel like we’re a part of the water community,” she said. “That feels really good to see that unfold over 10 years.”

    And people in government agree that it’s successful.

    “They haven’t been (overbearing),” Sorenson said. “That’s exactly the reason we’ve been able to build such good relationships.”

    Boundary organization

    “One of the things we do really well that a lot of universities are getting into, but we’re on the leading edge of, I’d say, is integrating people into the decision-making process from the beginning,” Sabo said. “We’re very good at understanding the institutional context and the decision-making context of water resources and doing the planning and interface with the science that allows people to contribute to that process.”

    The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC) calls itself a boundary organization. It is a link between scientists and water-resource practitioners. The goal is to have a space — both physical and intellectual — that creates an institutional connection between the university and its partners.

    “We don’t operate in consultancy mode,” White said. “We involve the partners we work with in the design of the studies. The partners are involved in constructing the framing of the problem, they’re involved in constructing the research questions themselves, in designing and carrying out the research studies, and then interpreting and utilizing the results.”

    Sorensen and Tom Buschatzke, the director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources — the state’s two most influential water leaders — sit on DCDC’s advisory board. They, along with the National Science Foundation, which has invested $18 million in the center, evaluate the center every two years. White sits on the mayor’s water advisory board.

    Science should fill in the gaps and provide evidence for alternatives. It’s a fine line to walk, White said.

    “If you just throw your hands up in the air and say, ‘This is ridiculous!’ that’s not going to get you very far,” he said. “If you want to have policy-relevant work, then you need to understand how did the system converge this way. … It’s not up to us to make those decisions. It’s up to us to help to diagnose what the consequences of different decisions are.”

    Water Sim and the Decision Theater

    Because water problems tend to be extremely complex, that makes it difficult for non-water professionals and elected officials to understand them. DCDC has created two opportunities to make them visual.

    Water Sim is a software program that models system dynamics. You can fiddle around with various scenarios to see how an El Nino or a thin snowpack will affect water. It’s a systems model; it takes a lot of data usually collected separately — like water supply, demand, climate, population and policy data — and puts it together. Users can change one variable and see how it affects the rest.

    ASU’s Decision Theater provides meeting rooms with large-format ultra-high-definition displays and on-site computer systems, tools and personnel that can provide specialized geographic information systems, systems modeling, business intelligence, and 3-D spatial modeling and simulation, among other capabilities.

    With water problems, the importance of visualization really ratchets up.

    “A picture is worth 1,000 words, right?” Sorensen said. “One of the things that’s been really constructive is to work with DCDC on the Decision Theater. You can bring in policymakers and elected officials and instead of having to sit there and lecture them for three hours on the background of a problem and why it matters and why they should care about it, the Decision Theater helps them visualize it. You can tell the story much easier in a way that makes sense and in a way that’s compelling to them.”

    What policymakers say

    Water is immensely complex, even if it’s your field, even if you have a PhD. If you really take a look at water problems, what you’ll find is they’re wicked problems. They’re extremely complex. The low-hanging fruit has already been picked.

    “The solutions that are left to us to face the challenges of a changing climate and global uncertainty are few and far between, difficult to achieve, and they tend to be incremental in nature,” Sorensen said. “And yet ahead of us are enormous risks. As a policymaker, someone who has to actually make sure 1.5 million people in the middle of the desert have water, finding your way through that path is extremely difficult. You have to make decisions at different times with relatively little information and huge amounts of uncertainty.

    “That’s kind of ASU’s focus: How do you make good decisions in such an uncertain world with such wicked problems ahead of you? It has been a really useful and collaborative partnership. We’ve been thrilled to have been involved with it. … Water wonks are always a little bit nervous when academics forge their way into policy arenas, but I would say for the most part it’s been tremendously successful. It’s been a benefit to us, and hopefully to ASU as well.”

    And many people across many fields at ASU are working to make that happen.

    “A place like the Global Institute of Sustainability and DCDC help to serve as a glue for all of us, so that our efforts are bigger than just one professor’s efforts,” said hydrologist Enrique Vivoni said. “I think we’re starting to make inroads in increasing our reputation, and attracting great students and doing interesting projects and generating a niche that we can become world leaders in.”