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ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance).
During February 2020, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were evident across the western, central, and far eastern Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 indices were near-to-above average (+0.5°C and +0.1°C, respectively), with the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices warmer, at +1.1°C. Equatorial subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) remained above average during the month, with positive anomalies spanning the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific, from the surface to ~150m depth. Also during the month, low-level westerly wind anomalies persisted over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern half of the basin. Tropical convection remained suppressed over Indonesia and was enhanced near and just west of the Date Line. While the equatorial Southern Oscillation index (SOI) was negative, the traditional SOI was near average. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere fall. Despite elevated Niño 3.4 index values in the near-term, the forecaster consensus expects the Niño-3.4 index values will decrease gradually through the spring and summer. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).