February 3, 2022 #Water Supply Forecast Discussion —

Click here to read the discussion. Here’s an excerpt:

The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin, Lower Colorado River Basin, and Eastern Great Basin.

Water Supply Forecast Summary

A ridge of high pressure settled over the region during the second week of January and persisted through the end of the month bringing very dry weather and a decrease in the spring water supply outlook. February 1st snow water equivalent (SWE) conditions generally range between 95-120% of normal across the Upper Colorado River Basin and 90-105% of normal across the Great Basin. Lower Colorado River Basin SWE conditions are 40-120% of normal.

Water supply forecast volumes have decreased across most basins over the past month. Upper Colorado River Basin water supply forecasts generally range between 60-115% of the 1991-2020 historical April-July average. Great Basin water supply forecasts are 60-105% of average. Lower Colorado River Basin water supply runoff volumes are 30-75% of normal.

Water supply forecast ranges (percent of normal) by basin:

April-July unregulated inflow forecasts for some of the major reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin include Fontenelle 615 KAF (84% average), Flaming Gorge 750 KAF (78%), Green Mountain 255 KAF (91%), Blue Mesa 585 KAF (92%), McPhee 185 KAF (73%), and Navajo 455 KAF (72%). The Lake Powell inflow forecast is 5.0 MAF (78% of average), which is a 20 percent decrease from January.

The ridge of high pressure will remain largely in place for the next two weeks. Mostly dry weather is expected across the region, with light precipitation (<0.25”) possible across higher elevations of the Bear, Upper Green, White/Yampa, Upper Colorado, Gunnison, and San Juan Basins. Spring runoff volume guidance will likely continue to decrease through the middle of February given the dry weather outlook.

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