#Drought news March 6, 2025: In western #Colorado, moderate and severe drought expanded in coverage due to very low #snowpack and growing precipitation deficits.

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

In the last week, a few swaths of precipitation occurred across the country, including the Sierra Nevada, northwest California and western portions of Washington and Oregon. Some high elevation areas of the West received precipitation as well, mostly outside of the desert Southwest. Some areas of the Upper Midwest and Northeast received a quarter of an inch of precipitation to locally over an inch. At the end of the current drought monitoring period (Tuesday morning), a powerful storm system was emerging into the Great Plains, delivering thunderstorms, high winds and wind-driven snow to parts of the Great Plains and Midwest. While some of this precipitation fell overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning, most of this precipitation will not be accounted for until next week’s U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) update. Temperatures generally ranged from 5-15 degrees warmer than normal in the Great Plains, with locally warmer readings in the Dakotas and eastern Montana. With some exceptions, temperatures were mostly within 5 degrees of normal across the rest of the Contiguous U.S.

The Southeast U.S. had a mostly dry week, which led to degradations to short- and long-term drought conditions across parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and Florida. Mostly dry weather in the lower Midwest and southern Great Plains led to expansion of ongoing abnormal dryness and drought. Drought coverage and severity also increased in the Southwest and in Hawaii, while short-term abnormal dryness developed in south-central Alaska. Improvements to snowpack in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming and southwest Montana led to some improvements to conditions there…

Colorado snowpack March 5, 2025 via the NRCS.

High Plains

Temperatures across most of the High Plains were above normal, with most locations east of the Rocky Mountains finishing the week between 9 and 15 degrees warmer than normal. Some precipitation fell in mountainous areas of Colorado and Wyoming, and snow occurred Monday night into Tuesday morning in parts of the northeast Colorado plains into western and central Nebraska. Most of the High Plains region east of the Rocky Mountains did not see any changes to ongoing drought or abnormal dryness, except for southern Kansas, where abnormal dryness expanded in response to unusually dry weather in the last few months. In western Colorado, moderate and severe drought expanded in coverage due to very low snowpack and growing precipitation deficits. Recent precipitation in west-central Wyoming led to localized improvements to drought conditions there…

Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending March 4, 2025.

West

Precipitation fell across higher elevations of California, northern Idaho and western areas of Oregon and Washington this week. For the most part, drier weather occurred elsewhere. Temperatures were warmer than normal in most of the West, with the warmest conditions of 9-15 degrees above normal occurring in the central and eastern plains of Montana. Recent improvements to snowpack in northeast Nevada, Idaho and southwest Montana led to localized improvements to drought conditions. Meanwhile, to the south across Utah, Arizona and New Mexico, this week’s continued dry weather led to widespread drought degradation as short- and long-term precipitation deficits grew amid soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater deficits. Drought conditions are especially bad from Phoenix westward to far southeast California, where exceptional drought developed this week…

South

Temperatures across the South this week were mostly warmer than normal, with much of Texas and Oklahoma finishing the week 6-10 degrees above normal. A line of thunderstorms associated with this week’s powerful low-pressure systems produced widespread rain of 0.5-1 inches in central and western Oklahoma and central north Texas, though areas east of there did not receive precipitation from this storm system until after the Tuesday morning data cutoff. Scattered drought degradations occurred in the western halves of Texas and Oklahoma, due to increasing precipitation deficits and locally decreasing streamflow and soil moisture. Groundwater and reservoir levels continued to drop in central Texas in the San Antonio area amid very large precipitation deficits, leading to the development of a small area of exceptional drought. Similar conditions in southwest Texas led to the expansion of exceptional drought along the Rio Grande to the El Paso area…

Looking Ahead

Through the evening of Monday, March 10, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is forecasting parts of coastal and high elevation California, along with portions of the high elevation West to receive 0.75 or more inches of precipitation, though this is mostly expected to miss New Mexico, Montana, northern Idaho, Washington and Oregon. A few other corridors of at least a half inch of precipitation are forecast across northern Nebraska, from southeast Oklahoma to South Carolina and the Florida Panhandle, and in New England. Some areas of the Southeast may receive at least 1 inch of rainfall.

Looking ahead to March 11-15, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast favors above-normal precipitation in the northern Contiguous U.S. and strongly favors above-normal precipitation in the western, and especially southwestern, U.S. Below-normal precipitation is favored in most of Texas, especially in far southern reaches of the state. Colder-than-normal temperatures are favored across the West, while warmer-than-normal weather is favored across most of the central and eastern Contiguous U.S.

US Drought Monitor one week change map ending March 4, 2025.

Just for grins here’s a slideshow of early March US Drought Maps for the last several years.

#Colorado Basin River Forecast Center: Water Supply Forecast Discussion March 1, 2025 — NOAA

Click the link to read the discussion on the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center website:

The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB). Water Supply Forecasts

March 1 water supply forecasts across the CRB and GB are generally below to well below normal and summarized in the figure and table below. Snowpack, soil moisture, and future weather are the primary hydrologic conditions that impact the water supply outlook.

March 1, 2025 seasonal water supply forecast summary. Map | List

February Weather
The beginning of February featured an atmospheric river regime, which funneled anomalously warm and
moist Pacific air into the Rockies. This resulted in a stretch of heavy precipitation for the northern reaches of the GB and UCRB. Precipitation fell mostly as snow over the critical runoff areas, but given the oceanic origins of the air mass, snow levels became quite high (over 8,000 feet at times). Unfortunately, these atmospheric river events missed the Lower Basin and southern portions of the GB (Sevier) and UCRB (San Juan, Dolores) entirely.

After a relatively brief dry spell, active weather returned to the CBRFC area in the middle of the month. The low pressure system that moved in marked the first truly basin-wide precipitation event of the winter. A wet pattern continued over the northern parts of the GB and UCRB in the subsequent days, before drier weather consumed the region toward the end of the month.

Although accumulations from the large mid-month system were beneficial, totals in the LCRB and adjacent areas of the GB and UCRB were a far cry from what is needed to change the trajectory of this season. Numerous SNOTEL sites in AZ, NM, southern UT, and southwest CO observed their driest meteorological winter (December–February) on record. Overall, February presented above normal (>150% of average) precipitation for northern reaches of the GB and UCRB, with below normal precipitation elsewhere. See the figure and table below for details.

Snowpack Conditions
UCRB March 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) conditions range between 55-115% of normal and are most favorable across northern areas including the Upper Green, White/Yampa, and Colorado River headwaters. SWE is below to well below normal elsewhere across the UCRB, with the least favorable conditions in the San Juan River Basin. March 1 observed SWE is below the 10th percentile and ranked in the driest 5 at several SNOTEL stations in the Duchesne, Gunnison, Dolores, and San Juan basins. UCRB March 1 snow covered area is around 52% of the 2001-2024 median, which is down from its winter-to date high of 85% on February 18.<superscript>1</superscript>

LCRB March 1 SWE conditions are at or near record low across southwest UT, central AZ, and west-central NM as a result of near record dry winter weather. GB March 1 SWE conditions range between 40-105% of normal and generally improve from south to north. SWE is near to slightly below normal across most of the GB, with the least favorable snowpack conditions in the Sevier River Basin, where March 1 SWE is generally below the 10th percentile and ranked in the driest five on record. UT snow covered area reached its season-to-date high on February 18 at 77% of normal, with March 1 snow covered area across UT at around 55% of the 2001-2024 median.<superscript>1</superscript> SWE conditions are summarized in the figure and table below.

Left: March 1, 2025 SWE – NRCS SNOTEL observed (squares) and CBRFC hydrologic model. Right: CBRFC hydrologic model SWE conditions summary

Soil Moisture
CBRFC hydrologic model fall (antecedent) soil moisture conditions impact water supply forecasts and the efficiency of spring runoff. Basins with above average soil moisture conditions can be expected to experience more efficient runoff from rainfall or snowmelt while basins with below average soil moisture conditions can be expected to have lower runoff efficiency until soil moisture deficits are fulfilled. The timing and magnitude of spring runoff is impacted by snowpack conditions, spring weather, and soil moisture conditions.

A very dry June-October 2024 across southwest WY and UT resulted in soil moisture conditions that are below normal and worse compared to a year ago. NW CO soil moisture conditions are near to below normal and similar compared to a year ago. SW CO soil moisture conditions are closer to average and improved from a year ago due to a wetter than normal monsoon (mid-June through September). Monsoon precipitation was near/below normal across the LCRB, where soil moisture conditions are below average and similar compared to last year. CBRFC hydrologic model soil moisture conditions are shown in the figures below.

November 2024 CBRFC hydrologic model soil moisture conditions – as a percent of the 1991-2020 average (left) and compared to November 2023 (right).

Upcoming Weather
The outlook for the first half of March is quite promising. Multiple basin-wide precipitation events are possible, which is especially good news for the parched LCRB and nearby portions of the GB and UCRB. The 7-day precipitation forecast includes totals of 1–3 inches for the high elevations of the CBRFC area, while the CPC outlook shows wetter and cooler than normal conditions favored into the middle of the month. See the figures below for details.

7-day precipitation forecast for March 5–11, 2025.
Climate Prediction Center temperature and precipitation probability forecasts for March 13–19, 2025.